In an article for the New York Post, I give it the old college try and lay out an electoral strategy for John McCain to maximize his (slim) chances of winning.
No razzle-dazzle here: McCain simply has to pick which states he and Sarah Palin can do the most good in, and hope for the best.
I group the states into four categories. The first two categories concern blue states won by John Kerry and/or Al Gore. The latter two concern red states.
1. Give-Ups. McCain should concede Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.
2. Offensive Targets. McCain should remain engaged in New Hampshire and New Mexico.
3. Defensive Targets. Some reasonably vigorous defense is required in Viginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.
4. Gambles. McCain should limit his activity in Florida, Missouri and Indiana, and hope a national surge of some kind brings those states back into his column.
For the rationale behind these groupings, please see the full text of the article.
10.25.2008
McCain's 10-Day Plan
@ 6:00 PM
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar71V0MS1jg
scariest video
25 Oct 2008 06:30 pm
McCain, Palin To Flood PA With Appearances Next Week
Pennsylvania will see a lot of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin next week.
The scheduling reflects McCain's tough electoral math. With some -- though by no means all -- advisers all but conceding Colorado, McCain would be forced to win a blue state in order to recoup the electoral votes. New Hampshire wouldn't give him enough, and Pennsylvania, the McCain campaign believes, is the most brittle of the remaining states. Public and private polls give Obama a double digit lead in the state, but McCain advisers believe that Obama is underperforming in the suburbs and exurban counties around Pittsburgh. Tensions between the two campaigns in the state is acute.
The Republican ticket will also spend time in Florida, Ohio and Missouri.
On Monday evening, McCain is tentatively scheduled to speak in Pottsville, Pennsylvania, which is in the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton market. Early the next morning, he's going to be joined by Palin in Hershey, for a rally that will saturate the Harrisburg/Lancaster and York market. A rally with Palin in Shippensburg is scheduled for 2:15 pm on Tuesday. McCain might appear in Latrobe later that day -- and Republicans are planning for a Tuesday evening event in Quakertown, PA, which would get coverage from the Philly market. Also Tuesday, Palin will hold a rally at Penn State University in State College, PA, and on Thursday, the campaign is preparing for an event in Erie.
marcambinder.theatlantic.com
Huckabee is a good pol. Romney is a good pol. Ridge is a good pol. Palin sucks dick. McCain sucks donkey. Giuliani sucks elephant.
gwen said...
Just saw on Fox News:
McCain rally pepared for 3000 in NM. Less than 1000 showed up.
Obama rally expecting 25000 - already filling up.
Not a good sign for McCain.
NM is gone
MCCAIN IS JUST TRYING TO SPEND THE REST OF DAYS WHERE EVER HE CAN
why do you think he's spending time in Iowa ?
its over
From 'Ask Chuck Todd' on Newsvine:
Chuck: Do you think Five-Thirty-Eight is making a good call by saying Obama has an 82.5% chance of now winning, as well as a 33% chance of gaining more than 375 electoral votes?
#1.3 - Thu Oct 9, 2008 4:02 AM PDT
Chuck Todd
My concern about this kind of analysis is that it is based on a lot of bad polls. He's doing great work but the data he's using is flawed; not his fault per se but it is what it is.
WHOA! NERD FIGHT!
What will you do on Nov. 5th when you awaken to President and Vice President elect McCain and Palin?
The people who cling to God and guns don't vote for Muslims! And I will be clinging to PeteKent and be be DRILLING BABY DRILLING!
McCain can forget about Nevada. Early voting favors democrats big time. Unlike 2004, Dems outnumber Repub by 110,000 in the silver state.
Is Petekent going for Stephen Colbert's job? He's that funny.
Brilliant analysis. Luckily it doesn't appear as though the McCain campaign has anyone particularly bright in charge of their strategy.
You know what I'm wondering right now? What is Obama's 30 minute special going to be like? As good as this 2 minute commercial is, I don't think he can go with a 30 minute special like that of course.
Also the http://taxcutfacts.org/ thing is a great idea. Make those tax cuts tangible to people and it'll make McCain's attacks useless.
mule rider, interesting....
sounds like a slogan, 'will be
clinging to
PeteKent and be be DRILL BABY
DRILL!
If you removed hope, prayer, faith
and luck from your analysis what do
you based your November 4th outcome
on?
For those worried about voting machine issues, Wired is tracking them and the map doesn't really look that bad:
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/10/had-problems-vo.html
Davy said...
From 'Ask Chuck Todd' on Newsvine:
Chuck: Do you think Five-Thirty-Eight is making a good call by saying Obama has an 82.5% chance of now winning, as well as a 33% chance of gaining more than 375 electoral votes?
#1.3 - Thu Oct 9, 2008 4:02 AM PDT
Chuck Todd
My concern about this kind of analysis is that it is based on a lot of bad polls. He's doing great work but the data he's using is flawed; not his fault per se but it is what it is.
WHOA! NERD FIGHT!
I agree with Chuck Todd. However, the best traders tend to use technical analysis on Wall Street and with stocks and commodities. They make a fortune, though data doesn't tell the whole story. Bill James, Theo Epstein, Billy beane, they all use sabremetrics and get fantastic results. Sabremetrics is not the end all be all, but it's extremely valuable. The polls are very unlikely to all be crap. I personally believe the 5.1% chance Nate gives McCain is way too high right now. That being said, I trust nate more than Chuck with regards to this. to put it another way, I believe I can project this kind of thing better than 99.9% or more of the folks out there. I think I have a better grasp of this election than Chuck Todd. I think Nate Silver has a better grasp than I do.
New Arizona poll:
Myers research
LV - McCain 44
Obama 40
Early voters - McCain 46
Obama 47
Nate,
How do your strategy suggestions fit with the apparent unwillingness to give up the fear-based, divisive tactics the McCain-Palin team has been using over the last 3+ weeks?
Will that tactic play better in CO, NV, and NM than in PA, or is it just a matter of him starting so much farther behind in PA?
I mean, Colorado obviously has its share of right-wing douchenozzles, so maybe this bullshit actually plays better there than in PA. That wasn't my first hunch, though, so I'm wondering what you think about it.
By the way, I'm a little surprised that no one has pointed out the obvious about Ashley Todd: She's Exhibit A for why you DON'T STOKE RACISM AND FEAR. A solid 1-2% of the population is schizophrenic (as in paranoid delusions, megalomania, etc. -- not multiple personality disorder, which is something completely different). Therefore, when you have a crowd of, say, 5,000 people, you also have a solid 25 to 100 people who are out of their fucking minds, and they can come to some seriously fucked up conclusions when you deliberately provoke their fears (terrorist! traitor! socialist! communist!).
Eventually, one of these whackjobs is virtually guaranteed to do something DESPERATE AND VIOLENT.
Ashley Todd did.
And we're all really, really fucking lucky that she "merely" mutilated her own face instead of, say, making a bomb or getting a gun.
Actually, no -- we haven't been that lucky, have we? Let's ask the chairman of the Democratic Party in Arkansas.
So, McCain, are you a SOCIOPATH who actually wants this shit to happen? Or are you a COWARD who won't stand up for what's right?
It's one or the other, asshole. If you ever loved this country at all, you need to stop this shit RIGHT NOW. If not, then it's increasingly clear how you mean to "follow Bin Laden to the gates of Hell" -- you're going to be his roommate, you fucking traitor.
are you guys aware there is a new thread?
sfergus,
do you have a link to that poll? thanks.
Seretse said...
markymark said...
My point, inkstain, is that the US was set up as a liberal bastion against a conservative world, and sometimes it seems like the right conveniently forgets that.
Markymark, John Adams, Alexander Hamilton by today's standards would most likely be considered conservative in my opinion.
*******
The 18th Century was called "The Age of Enlightenment"., also known as the "The age of Liberalism". At the time of the revolution, the conservatives would have been the tories, since they didn't want change. Though when you think of it, the Revolution wasn't fought for some idealistic principle, or fighting for democracy or freedom. It was fought, because one third of the country didn't want to pay taxes. England wanted to tax the colonies to help pay for the cost of maintaining and defending them, especially during the French and Indian War, which when you think about it, seems fair. However, the colonists, like many people today, didn't believe they should have to pay for their upkeep, and that they shouldn't continue paying for their infrastructure.
The colonists would have been free eventually, because we would have outgrown England, a point Franklin tried to make to the King. As muc has some people dog the French, we wouldn't have won the war without their assistance. Like I said, we would have eventually won our independence, but it wouldn't have occurred at that time, without France sticking their neck out for us. In the end, the King of France lost his head partly as a result of supporting us, because they ended up going bankrupt.
If McCain fails to win AZ, that would be so Al Gore.
Nate, you should permanently replace Chuck Todd at MSNBC.
Pete and Mule, don't you two have anything remotely resembling lives? You guys are beyond annoying; you're pathetic. No self-respecting troll needs to try this hard.
Also, people need to calm down about Nate writing for the NYP. As someone said, his blog is partisan, while his analysis most certainly is NOT. He isn't "helping" anyone; he's offering adviced based on non-partisan analysis, advice that will do McCain no good because it requires 1/3 of American voters to change their minds at a point and time when their vote decision is likely cemented in order for him to implement any significant steps. Not to mention the monumental task of reigning in his campaign, vice-presidential candidate, and his party.
In short: He's *bleep*ed
The McCain campaign already has a surefire endgame strategy:
Phase 1: Collect underpants.
Phase 2: ?
Phase 3: Victory!
Of course Nate should write wherever he likes. Anyway, the conclusions of the article follow directly from the numbers on this well-known website: specifically, that McCain can't win without a large national shift in his favor, and that if this materializes, he has a better shot in CO, NV, NM, and NH (the N-state strategy?) than in PA or the upper midwest.
Donelson: "PALIN is running for HER FUTURE now, she cares not for sad old McCain.
She has her eyes on 2012 and the looney Republican “base”."
And she'll have about as much success with that as when Katherine Harris of FL tried to run for Bill Nelson's senate seat. Couldn't even make it to the Republican primary.
When the Republican party introduced Sarah Palin to the world, the whole party jumped the shark.
I vote for Obama and I vote yes for prop 8. They are not excluded each other.
Your strategy gets McCain to 283. McCain can't afford to try for a cushion right now.
DUMP VIRGINIA!!! Obama's ground game there is too good. Take NH and NM!!!
Gotta defend a little in IN, with Big-O's ground game there. Chance MO? Boy, that's a gamble.
Got to agree with you on FL though. If the election looks close, FL redneck cops will have a "checkpoint" outside every poll with at least 10 african americans.
However, even with this stategy, McC will lose. However, it's all he can do.
Can you look at 2004 exit poll data to estimate size of the Viguerie vote. This group is likely missing, in the hang-up category, in most polls. Conventional wisdom was that their numbers accounted for a 3.5M vote gain for Bush from 2000 to 2004. In what states would this "hidden" Palin-philic group likely skew current data.
New York Post? Didn't NYP endorse McCain?
love the stuff Nate, but I imagine you're a perfectionist. You misspelled "Virginia." Keep it up, and I'll keep telling people about your site.
Nate SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHSH!
Let them waste their time in PA.
You just gave McCain a much better strategy than his campaign staff has given him in months.
@unfortunate Scnitziel
You really shouldn't text while you're drunk.
You know what's been bugging me lately? Sarah Palin's first dood, Todd has been a member of the AIP (Alaska Independence Party). Now, Alaska was purchased in a legitimate real estate deal by the soon to be president McKinley. Alaskans have been the recipients of government subsidies for energy and for just being plain Alaskans. To want to secede from the union is theft of property. As a supporter of secession, do you know what that makes you?
A DOMESTIC TERRORIST!
What the hell planet am I on?
This is an outstanding analysis and in line with my analysis on my blog.
New NH poll by a highly-rated pollster (ranked 5th by 538) gives Obama a +15 lead, after having McCain +2 in September.
And he had a crowd of 3 men and a dog in NM yesterday...
So much for point 2 of your McCain strategy, Nate! Back to the drawing board....
*
Should The top management of the Public listed company be responsible for the company performance, eg company nearly get wind up?
http://bailoutmovie.blogspot.com/
Are you a Partisan?
Should they give their view......? If any party did not give their views, send it to their supporter to question them....
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