In an article for the New York Post, I give it the old college try and lay out an electoral strategy for John McCain to maximize his (slim) chances of winning.
No razzle-dazzle here: McCain simply has to pick which states he and Sarah Palin can do the most good in, and hope for the best.
I group the states into four categories. The first two categories concern blue states won by John Kerry and/or Al Gore. The latter two concern red states.
1. Give-Ups. McCain should concede Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.
2. Offensive Targets. McCain should remain engaged in New Hampshire and New Mexico.
3. Defensive Targets. Some reasonably vigorous defense is required in Viginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.
4. Gambles. McCain should limit his activity in Florida, Missouri and Indiana, and hope a national surge of some kind brings those states back into his column.
For the rationale behind these groupings, please see the full text of the article.
10.25.2008
McCain's 10-Day Plan
@ 6:00 PM
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237 comments
1st?
Perhaps Nevada should be on the "give up" list?
1st!
I don't understand why McCain doesn't give up on Pennsylvania - he could still win with a couple more manageable combinations.
Nate:
Come on. Say it.
Short of an asteroid wiping out the entire Northeast and Middle Atlantic - with a corresponding tsunami that wipes out the Pacific Rim, McCain is finished.
There is no 'strategy' that has even a glimmer of hope.
The honorable republican...NOT McCAIN!
Never fear McCain fans:
"With a poll for Newsweek putting him 13 percentage points behind Mr Obama, Mr McCain said: "I will never allow this nation to be defeated ... my friends, we've got them just where we want them.
"We love being the underdog and we're going to win! What America needs now is a fighter." "
Being miles behind the electoral count is exactly where he wants to be.
Never fear more war is on the way.
Attempting to distance himself from President George W Bush, Mr McCain said: "We cannot spend the next four years as we have much of the last eight, hoping for our luck to change at home and abroad."
That might work if you hadn't voted with him in near lock-step those eight years.
I think the funniest thing is Palin denying she dove into the scum filled pond of fear mongering.
While campaigning on Saturday in Sioux City, Iowa, Mr McCain's vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin said her criticism of Obama had not been negative.
"Don't be made to feel guilty. I'm not feeling guilty," she said as calls of "he's a socialist" were heard from the crowd.
This is called losing ugly.
Can we please stop with the first BS? It is retarded and got old over a year ago.
It's over....Maybe in an electoral wet dream the nypost is right.
However, with the public split of the ticket, the entire week is going to spent on talking about this. I finally believe nothing can stop O/B from winning.
www.cnn.com
"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else
Am I the only one who gets the feeling that I could have run John McCain's campaign better than he could have?
I think most of my fellow Obama supporters on here were wondering why McCain didn't take so many obvious moves.
NATE
your analysis is spot on
a strategy like you suggest is all he has left due to time & resources
but I hope his campaign does not follow your advice
McCain has a better chance here in FL if he & Palin stay the hell away
when he comes, the INDs go runing to Obama
and the state will bleed his ad money dry
but Palin is here on Sunday I believe so Mac's #'s will probably tank in central FL next week - especially after Bill & Barack barnstorm through on Wed
Yeah, Nevada's gone.
WWeell,, aafftteerr ttooddaayy''ss ppoollss,, iitt''ss cclleeaaarr tthhaatt MMccCCaaiinn''ss ssttrraatteeggyy iiss ooffff--bbaassee.. Hhee ccaann''tt wwiinn wwiitthhoouutt ccoolloorraaddoo. Aallssoo, iitt sseemmss tthhaatt PPaalliinn iiss nnoott iinnvvoollvveedd iinn tthhiiss ccaammppaaiiggnn aatt aallll.. OObbaammaa sshhoouulldd ddeffiinniitteellyy hhoolldd aa rraallyy iinn AAttllaannttaa jjuusstt aass aa sshhooww ooff ssttrreennggtthh.
Nate-
Quit helping the enemy. Murdoch is as big a reason for the neo-con takeover as Cheney. Don't take blood money.
In other words, he should spend his money in the states with the highest ROI on fivethirtyeight.com :-)
Hey mysticlaker, ready to come to Oklahoma from your gay liberal hippy commiecrat state of massachusetts and suck my cock, gay marriage lover?
Long live the Palin dynasty!!
McCain just said "Joe the Biden". At a rally in NM. Hahahah. Sigh.
sock puppet pete
please, everyone is on to you
DNFTT
Absolutely McCain should ditch Iowa and Pennsylvania. He's down by double digits in both. He's out organized in both too according to this website and the Wall Street Journal (hardly fans of Obama).
The problem with ditching those states is that it becomes abundantly clear to even the most partisan diehard in the campaign that McCain has lost. Pulling out of both states lets the staff know "We're just trying to prevent an Obama landslide."
If McCain follows Nate's advice (which is the best McCain can get), Palin will continue to "go rogue" (who could've guessed the MAVERICK would go rogue???) and plan for 2012. McCain is done.
MMccCCaaiinn''ss ssttrraatteeggyy iiss ooffff--bbaassee.. Hhee ccaann''tt wwiinn wwiitthhoouutt ccoolloorraaddoo. Aallssoo, iitt sseemmss tthhaatt PPaalliinn iiss nnoott iinnvvoollvveedd iinn tthhiiss ccaammppaaiiggnn aatt aallll.. OObbaammaa sshhoouulldd ddeffiinniitteellyy hhoolldd aa rraallyy iinn AAttllaannttaa.
Nate-
Quit helping the enemy.
Nate is supposed to be non-partisan.
Also, don't get TOO cocky. While McCain most likely will lose, there could be an event that changes everything. *cough osama bin laden cough*
MEANWHLE, the racket from the candidate couple fighting in the McCain Campaign is deafening!
From CNN:
“Several McCain advisers have suggested to CNN they have become increasingly frustrated with what one aide described as Palin “going rogue” recently, while a Palin associate says she is simply trying to “bust free” of what she believes was a mishandled roll-out that damaged her.”
She ABANDONED the dead-end McCain campaign TWO WEEKS AGO.
You can see it in McCain’s eyes when he’s with her. Just watch.
PALIN is running for HER FUTURE now, she cares not for sad old McCain.
She has her eyes on 2012 and the looney Republican “base”.
FORCE
and now he said "IF I am elected" then corrected himself
John needs a nappy
Giving advice to the enemy in the enemy's propaganda rag? How much did you get paid for this treason? I don't care how much Obama is ahead, there is no excuse for this.
The main problem for McCain at the moment is Virginia. Obama seems to have an average poll lead there of about 7% at the moment.
"Long live the Palin dynasty!!"
Me thinks the troll doesn't know what the term means.
I hope she has people hunting for remote property for her return to AK.
Nate, if you're right that Obama leads in North Carolina early voting by "several hundred thousand votes," as indicated in the Post article, then how can McCain possibly win? Bush's total margin over Kerry in NC was less than 500,000.
I would have told him to invest all his time & money in trying to win California & New York.
10 day play
HAAHHAHAHAHAHA
Eh, not too sure.
He knows he's gonna get his wrinkled old ass whooped so I think he should pull a Dole and focus on the down-ballot races that are competitive (NC, GA, MO) especially since he keeps barking about preventing a total Dem control of government. Here is his chance to try and at least prevent a filibuster-proof Senate.
Don't be dimwits, you dumbass commiecrat liberal hippies. McCain's advisers already have several plans available, McCain is just too stubborn to listen.
But I am expecting McCain to lose. I am getting ready for the REVOLT LED BY PALIN TO DESTROY THE COMMIECRATS!
The Post let you write for them? Shocking.
petekent--
Nate isn't "supposed to be non-partisan." His blog content is unabashedly pro-Obama, and he admits it. His electoral projection work is the only part that's non-partisan.
He's lost New Mexico too.
2 Wisconsin papers endorse Obama
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel & The Chippewa Herald is endorsing Obama
Look at that McCain has two paths to victory. Either get Nevada or New Mexico and New Hampshire. Oh and all those other states that Nate mentioned.
The McCain campaign is becoming excruciating right now.
But as far as strategy goes, I say put the play book away and go national. Go positive, actually put forward some positive proposals. Play for the center big time. Be the good guy. McCain can't win just by strategy now, he has to close the polls, and hope that brings enough EVs in.
Oh and organise a ground game VERY quickly.
If McCain loses I have a difficult time seeing how Palin could have a future in the Republican party.
Nate:
1) What are you doing writing for the NY Post? The Times would probably pay you for the same analysis.
2) Why are you giving an analysis to the Retards that might actually help them?
justsomeguy said...
Typical lib logic!
Racism isdiscrimination against someone based on race. Racism is not votin for someone because you believe in them.
----------------------------------
I hope you feel this way when the majority 50% +1, vote for the white guy, not becuase of the black guys race, but because they too believe in their candidate, which just so happens to be white also.
Nate! Stop telling the cretins how to win!
It is called counter-psych
is Nate giving Mac good advice for real - or is Nate trying to further sabotage Mac's pathetic campaign strategy ???
now John says that Obama's inaugural address is already written - lol
is that the best his brightest can come up with ?
of course, if he keeps saying 'BARACK OBAMA' like that is a cursed name [like Osama bin Laden] - maybe that will catch on too at this late date
try the celebrity angle again perhaps ??? WTF
I'm all for free speech, but I would prefer if the bigots were censored.
Why would you tell the other side the best way to win? You're not being paid for it, so it's all hubris. Shame on you. Very un-Obama-like.
Sure, there's no chance that Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis will listen to you, but it's a stupid thing to do, nonetheless. Like a former law partner of mine who used to tell the other side the best strategy for their side of the case. (20 years former now. And for that very reason.)
You're getting a little too famous and it's going to your head. This is in the same category as Sean's taunt to Barone a couple weeks ago.
SHAME ON YOU NATE SILVER, SHAME ON YOU.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, this time in caps and bold - MCCAIN HAS ALREADY LOST NEW MEXICO
Even though Obama has a big lead, I still don't see how he can win. Several states will just flip McCain's way, it seems. The polling is volitile this election cycle. I sure hope Obama can pull this off so I can hear Sean Hannity's whining the day after the election. Sean Hannity needs his head examined.
I put this as last in the last thread before seeing there was a new one.
Well, I saw Barack and Hillary on Monday in Orlando and now I see I will have to go back to the website to confirm location and time to try and see him again and Bill. I was about 20 feet away from the podium and could see Hillary and him clearly. Very awesome. Attend rallies if you can, however mine started at 6 and I had been standing and waiting since 11 am =(
~Yari
That is a really good article, considering that McCain has a 5% chance of winning. You explained how and why it could happen, given the limited resources that McCain has left. Honestly, I think the data predicts a landslide win for the Democrats, but there is still hope for the GOP if they get very very lucky - which seems not to be happening much lately.
NM,NV are gone
its over
I love that step one is to somehow magically reduce Obama's lead by 6 points nationwide.
Can anyone provide a link to where McCain says that he will test the world?
This statement scares me to no end and only adds more support to the "he is batshit insane" theory.
Good strategy from Nate, but still a stretch.
I really don't see McCain winning NM at this late date, particularly since the RNC already pretty much threw in the towel on the Senate race.
Gotta run-Obama is here tonight (Yeah!!!!!!!!!)
thank you real joe
Palin will lead a revolution. The patriotic states will seceed from the traitorous nation led by Hussein.
LONG LIVE PALIN I!!!!
Yes...That first point is the hardest. Bring down the whole country by 6 points!!!! Haha.
"Seretse said...
If McCain loses I have a difficult time seeing how Palin could have a future in the Republican party."
I agree, especially since, in spite of her best efforts recently, a substantial proportion of the public (and the Republicans) will see her as--at the least--a big part of McCain's loss. I mean, there's a pretty strong trajectory downwards in his polls since, what, 2 weeks after she was chosen? Sure, the economy thing didn't help, but other than fundraising, and potentially getting the base enthusiastic and therefore more likely to actually vote (which I think is probably now counteracted by the lack of enthusiasm due to Obama's overwhelming lead in the polls), she brought nothing to the ticket except embarrassment.
(Security word: "vomaxest"--"Ask your doctor if vomaxest is right for you!")
mccain lost this election when it began simply because they NEVER had a plan strategy or tactic. they thought they didnt need one. all mccain had to do was to occasionally remind people that obama was "not like us"
THEY THOUGHT NO ONE WOULD VOTE FOR OBAMA BECAUSE OF HIS SKIN COLOR- end of story
anyone as dumb as mccain should NEVER hold office. everytime i start to feel sorry for that loser i remember the birthday cake BUsh and McCain during Katrina and i am again revolted by this DISHONORABLE creep called mccain
they still dont have a plan
politicalcynic said...
Gotta run-Obama is here tonight (Yeah!!!!!!!!!)
_---------------------------
Don't forget your turbin and the money from your welfare checks...I'm sure Osama will be beggin for more money.
hey back off on Nate Silver! He's educating the right wing into listening to fact-based reality.
Not 1st!
Nate, what seems clear to me is that many Republicans are on the verge of capitulation. McCain is stigmatized by the Bush legacy of corruption and enriching the rich, the Iraq war, and our bellicose foreign image.
Obama offers a "new deal," that's forward looking even as it offers a difficult path out of the last 8 years of political malfeasance and asks people to make sacrifices for the common good.
It may not be what conservatives want, but it is far better than what they got the last 8 years and than what McCain would seem to offer. McCain's political generation in the GOP is bankrupt.
Even with your strategy, McCain would in effect be going quietly. Fighting a valiant battle but not taking a scorched earch approach. He might even get some credit for that down the road (in the history books).
We will be witnessing potentially a total restructuring of the GOP, as it works through conflicts between the various sectors and strata of members and activities.
McCain should suspend his campaign & call for an immediate vote...
McCain should have only big 'christian' prayer rallies in stadiums across the country on the next 2 Sundays...
McCain should have Cindy offer a job to anyone who will vote for him...
McCain should change the rules & insist the election is like golf -low score wins...
LOL! Pete was tauntin libs asking when they would leave the country if McCain won, now he wants to secede. Is secession a pro-America position? AIP?
Don't forget that in 2004 many states (including Ohio) had anti-gay marriage initiatives on the ballot, which brought out the vote for Bush and the rest of the Rs in droves. Doesn't exist this time.
Also remember that Obama is a vastly better candidate than Kerry.
Which is why I think Obama will win here in Ohio by 20,000 to 30,000 votes.
New Mexico.
McCain draws 1000 people this AM, and Obama, 40,000 expected tonight. He won't be back there.
And don't forget commie virginia, north carolina (too late for mccain), and ohio looks like it is slipping away. It's over....Reall
Real America would never let a terrorist communist commiecrat muslim like Hussein lead our great country! PALIN WILL LEAD US TO VICTORY!!!!
Nate:
I wouldn't dream of disagreeing with your assessment of the mathematics of the situation for McCain, but at this stage it simply can't dictate his strategy. The odds of a comeback by playing for a 6-7 point improvement in the national polls are... well... you reported them yourself on the above left corner.
If I were McCain, I would absolutely concentrate every offensive resource at my disposal in Pennsylvania for the final week of the campaign. It is the only semiplausible blue target available that is large enough to offset the loss of either one big state (OH, FL) or two mid-size ones (CO, VA, IN, etc.). There are way too many Bush-04 states in play for him to expect to defend 270 EV's worth of them, at a disadvantage in people and money, no less. Sure, the odds of changing the landscape of the campaign in PA aren't very good, but they can't be any worse than the odds of a successful all-out defense of every red state going. If the landscape doesn't *fundamentally* change somewhere between now and Nov. 4, he is SOL.
However, I concur with you on the strategy of trusting to luck and the existing GOP infrastructure in states that trend better than average for him than the national polling data, i.e. IN, FL, MO. He can't push down on every bump in the carpet simultaneously given his inferior ground game and cash-on-hand position. You have to pick and choose your spots...
C'mon Nate, you missed it.
McInane has to do 2 things:
1) Fire Palin
2) Choose Hillary as his new VP.
Is that a PeteKent name troll, or has he been profane, bigoted and downright disgusting in the past and I missed it?
*Note to this PeteKent: Please keep up the profanity and disgusting bigotry as more proof of what Oklahoma Republitards Hill Billies are really like. Just stay sleazy so more and more sane people can run from your type right over to Obama. Thanks for all the help!
CORREA
glad you made the Mon rally ! good for you
I am waiting for the details on the Wed evening rally with Bill & Barack
hope they stage it at the Citrus Bowl or maybe at UCF
how did you get off work so early ?
sherwick said...
thank you real joe
for what ??
Will somebody please ask Sarah Palin why her State Government gives every Alaskan citizen free $$$ taken out of private corporations profits!!!!! Socialist!
Seriously, the poodle press never challenges her. I'd like to see her get a real questioning and forced to defend the idiocies she utters. But that's not the American way. Of "real" Americans.
Mysticlaker, your gay state of Massachusetts will be the first to go. We will execute all the liberal hippies, annul the gay marriages, and undo all the communist and untraditional values you liberal hippies support!!
TAKE BOSTON! DESTROY MASSACHUSETTS!!!!!!!!
i like how one of the comments on Nate's article is "More hype from Murdoch&Co. Gee, no way McCain can win this thing.."
LOLOL
Nate,
I love this site--but have you become so enamored of your media attention that you are willing to prostitute yourself out for advice to McCain? Is this honestly the best and noblest use of your time?
Many of us are deeply DISAPPOINTED.
This isn't dailykos you liberal hippies. Nate can do whatever he wants.
Forget 11/5. Prepare for the 'what if' discussions about a different VP selection now. Not from the Left, not from the "Biased MSM"...but from the Republicans themselves. Grab a bowl of popcorn. The next two weeks will be entertaining.
The fact that "reality has a liberal bias" (a phrase I'm taking credit for coining, iirc) has driven all the smart conservatives out and made this site a very boring left-wing circlejerk.
Here's my advice to McGrampa: Give up, you blew it, you have not honor, now piss off the country hates you.
Geez Nate - don't help the bastards! They no doubt read what you write and realize that you're smarter than their guys. Let them keep beating their heads against PA, and themselves.
PeteKent said...
Real America would never let a terrorist communist commiecrat muslim like Hussein lead our great country! PALIN WILL LEAD US TO VICTORY!!!!
--------------------------------------
LMAO! Precisely! I guess people who cling to guns and religion aren't ready to vote for a Muslim socialist.
"Nate can do whatever he wants."
I never thought it would come to this... I agree with petekent.
Ok, Nate:
Now for something easier--how can the Cubs win the World Series this year?
DCM
I work from home for my company and I did not have any thing pending or waiting on me. I was very not correct sending an email Friday night that there was something I really needed to do Monday afternoon that would take the whole day. My boss guessed it....If I try and see him on Wednesday I am going to have to be one of those people that get there an hour before and hope for the best. =)
~Yari
damn. i'm agreeing...with PeteKent. Nate can write where he wants...rather him take Murdoch's money than someone like Kristol.
Oh, and speaking of Nate's money, click the advertising links on this page so he can make a few pennies.
The Palin Revolution targets:
Massachusetts(#1 in liberal hippies) - The Southerners will take boats up to Massachusetts and wage war with the Commiecrats. We will take Boston and exert our sphere of influence and destruction of the liberal hippies all throughout the Northeast. We will be aided by our allies in New Hampshire.
California (#2 in liberal hippies) - The Western States will crush California and their arsenal of liberal hippies handily.
Once we take these two, the rest of the liberal hippy unamerican commiecrat treasonous states will drop like flies!
GO PALIN!!! LEAD US TO VICTORY!!!
real joe - for agreeing with me that NM is gone.
"Now for something easier--how can the Cubs win the World Series this year?"
They can't.
How can I convince Cardinals fans to accept me as one of their own after more than two decades of Cubs rooting?
Now,for equal time, Nate:
What would your strategy be for Obama?
How best can he not only fend off any chance of McInane, but also set up a mandate for himself and the demo-coattail's to get it done?
PeteKent is dangerous! He should be locked up before he hurts someone. He's probably been released on parole. Let's contact the Secret Service and report making death threats to have him thrown back in.
CORREA
did you take photos ?
I always forget to take a camera - but I just took mine out for Wed
Why do you believe that Obama has already won new mexico?
I wonder how the founding fathers feel about liberal values being attacked so hard now, by everyone on the right.
Don't worry about Nate. he's busy making a name for himself. Next election he will be in the Obama team, carving up strategies (if his predictions prove right).
If (in the unlikely case) his predictions prove to be totally wrong, the repubs will hire him. They like experts without a grasp of reality.
i live in repub area of NM roswell.
Obama easily takes NM.
Brad said...
Nate,
I love this site--but have you become so enamored of your media attention that you are willing to prostitute yourself out for advice to McCain? Is this honestly the best and noblest use of your time?
Many of us are deeply DISAPPOINTED.
Werd.
As for PeteKent, he (she?) is a disappointed PUMA who has been glomming Repub talking points because he thinks that he (she?) will avenge Hillary that way.
CNN talking about how pollsters 'cook the books' to get certain results
NO WAY !!!
"I wonder how the founding fathers feel about liberal values being attacked so hard now, by everyone on the right."
I couldn't care less how they feel about anything. They are dead, their children are dead, and their grandchildren are dead.
Keep clicking on all McGrampa advertising and help bankrupt his campaign!!! Everytime you click on a McGrampa weblink, the campaign has to pay the host website.
Help bankrupt McGrampa!!!!
"Why do you believe that Obama has already won new mexico?"
Because he's been polling way ahead there all election.
Curses! Foiled again!
Judge tosses lawsuit challenging Obama citizenship
Email this Story
Oct 25, 3:37 PM (ET)
PHILADELPHIA (AP) - A federal judge has dismissed a lawsuit challenging Barack Obama's qualifications to be president.
U.S. District Judge R. Barclay Surrick on Friday night rejected the suit by attorney Philip J. Berg, who alleged that Obama was not a U.S. citizen and therefore ineligible for the presidency. Berg claimed that Obama is either a citizen of his father's native Kenya or became a citizen of Indonesia after he moved there as a boy.
Obama was born in Hawaii to an American mother and a Kenyan father. His parents divorced and his mother married an Indonesian man.
Internet-fueled conspiracy theories question whether Obama is a "natural-born citizen" as required by the Constitution for a presidential candidate and whether he lost his citizenship while living abroad.
Surrick ruled that Berg lacked standing to bring the case, saying any harm from an allegedly ineligible candidate was "too vague and its effects too attenuated to confer standing on any and all voters."
DCM, I took pictures, I need to un privatize my blog I posted a huge email thingie, guess I can post it here for whomever =D...My camera batteries died BOTH SETS WERE DEAD...so had to frantically send the pictures that were on my phone to my email and take pictures with my cell phone. I was livid, but honestly it was the same view him standing behind a podium, no running around no strolling lol, so that helped me calm down a little. I am gonna post my email. Apologies in advance that it is long. =D
ARE YOU SERIOUS?
I DESPISE Hillary and Bill Clinton. They are the wicked Clintons! Our great leader, the greatest president since the beginning of our nation, George W. Bush, led the nation astray from the wicked Clintons. It was fate that we won Florida by 0.1% in 2000!! Take that, liberal hippies!!!
I just wanted to take a few reader moments to bring a discussion forward from the last thread - namely if Sarah Palin is the next best thing for Republicans.
As a disclaimer, while very much a liberal myself, I believe in intelligent discourse with dissenting opinions. That's (imo) how we move forward and evolve.
There's no way this lady will be a candidate in the next cycle, as far as I can see. Here are some reasons for my assessment (ouch! just got my 'special assessment' for my condo complex):
First off debates. She'll have to actually debate other members of her party who want the job. She won't get off with this garbage of "I'll just talk about what I want to talk about" and survive many primaries;
Inteviews - yanno, you just are gonna hafta give some candid interviews as a candidate and think on your feet;
Conservative "Intelligencia" - right now, and I am fairly confident, these people hate her. Guess what? They have the money. They are not going to allow a bona fide idiot stand for their party.
Although I look forward (for entertainment purposes only) to seeing this woman 'debate' her peers, my expectations we will see her on a national ticket again any time soon are, well, not so much.
http://www.sos.state.nm.us/pdf/COUNTY1017.pdf and the NM early voting stats.
My point, inkstain, is that the US was set up as a liberal bastion against a conservative world, and sometimes it seems like the right conveniently forgets that.
Inkie-
Cardinal fans are a very accepting bunch, buy a red hat and your in. I loved the 2006 series! Went to two games!
Given the fact that VA is significantly ahead for Obama right now, does it really make sense to call this "Defense" for McCain?
Sorry Nate, but your just full of it! There IS NO "STRATEGERY" LEFT FOR McCAIN!
According to Scott Rasmussen daily tracker there are only 3% "undecided" voters left!
19% are leaning one way or another, but "might change their mind."
Well, just how wishy-washy are these "leaning" voters?
Scott Rasmussen says:
"Today’s results mark the 30th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day . . . ."
That means that the polling just fluxuates slightly due to the luck of the daily poll, but voter opinion is almost totally fixed!
There isn't enough ROOM in the electorate to dramatically change the results here.
Your OWN map shows that a candidate who has a 6-8% lead can expect to win over 350 EV, and your model shows the same thing.
A state by state strategy for McCain just can't work! He's smarter than you on this one and is going for the long-shot home run: Pennsylvania!
If he flipped PA somehow, then he could afford to lose CO & VA (which he's going to lose anyway), and still win if he also holds, NC, FL, OH & NV.
That's a LOOOOONG shot, but it's better than trying to hold every single Bush 2004 state individually!
inkstain do you think Jonathan Martin violated journalistic standards of professionalism in the way he reported the Pittsburgh incident?
This is only as long as it takes you to read it.
As most of you know, I learned that Barack Obama was going to be in Orlando, I learned late Friday night. My first response was "there is no way I can miss this" a little unusual for me since I always say that about so many things and they are just ships that pass me in the night. Not this time. I especially wanted to go because Hillary was going to be there. I was not a Hillary supporter, but I do respect what she was trying to do, and I knew Barack would be back in Florida, and I felt this was my only chance to see her. I will spare you the following details:
Arriving at 11:00 with no issues at all and being able to see the white tent in which we would later pass. A great sign that I would be assured a great view.
Seeing all walks of life with their shirts, and buttons bags and flags PEACEFULLY awaiting the time to move on. No men with little monkeys, no one kicking reporters, no one screaming to KILL anyone and no one shouting out that anyone was a terrorist....(had to get that dig in there)
It was nice, this was 11:00 am. Now lets get to 1:45. I am hot, tired and about to get a little cranky, keeping my eye on the prize. The crowd is now too far that I can't see them, they go down some street, around the back, I wouldn't have wanted to walk back there...and some people didn't...they parked themselves on the other side of the walkway we were on and SAT IN THE SHADE under a tree. Did I mention I was hot and getting cranky? =) I refused to drink water or eat cause I did not want to have to use the port a potty
Fast forward to 3, some small talk here and there, I will spare you the details on the chaos created on having a blue ticket and us wanting to know how to get one and where and no one knowing, and then hearing these people got to go in first...I did mention I was there at 11 right? Doors opened at 3 pm and the event itself was at SIX!
It is now 3:00 and we have been slowly one step at a time moving closer, lines are semi organized, and oh, remember the people under the tree that got there at 2, yeah, they just got up, and walked on over to the line like that was ok. Now I will spare you the things that came out of my mouth, because, I am sure you remember that I was hot, thirsty and just a littttle bit cranky...Someone asked the police (who were conveniently by the same darn tree) to make them move, so that was fun, everyone waiting peacefully for 4 hours, and then having people just cut in front and say "it doesn't matter we are here for Barack" um yeah we were, but we waited and you didn't so, to the back.. The people I was with and I decided to unceremoniously band together and mush them to the back as we inched forward. It worked and I was glad.
Pictures were taken of the crowd, security check was done, the emptying of purses and such and we cross over to the other side. All that waiting without sitting, crouching and no water. I am hanging in there. I see it immediately and I can't believe I will be that close. Wow. 20 feet away is THE podium. We were so excited that we got that close when we were not even in the front. Oh the people we inched out were to the right lol, so no one had the last laugh.
I will spare you the fight that almost broke out wtih the guy standing right next to me, literally not figuratively because someone stepped on his girlfriend without saying "excuse me". I will spare you the details of all his expletives, how I had to grab him back and tell him it wasn't worth going to jail for and join the crowd in pushing to get the other guy to shut up and keep moving. For all the secret service, arena security and police, no one apparently saw a damn thing. I will spare you the details. Someone then said the guy must have been a plant, so that violence would break out and that would be the focus of the event. The group quieted quickly on that note.
Then some people speak, sound check needed to be done.....will fast forward. We are listening to someone talk about VOLUNTEERING TO GET OUT AND VOTE and propmtly at 6 pm, keep in mind 7 hours of standing in the sun, no crouching and no water....the screams started to the one side...I want to see why they are screaming, I know why they are screaming but I want to see it. As Wyclef's song "Yes We Can" plays out the crowd starts chanting "YES WE CAN, YES WE CAN, YES WE CAN, YES WE CAN" and then..ahhhhhhhhhhh they both come onto the stage. It was awesome. I could see the color of Hillary's eyes, that is how close I was. The crowd went wild! It was so loud, the cheers were from every direction... Hillary spoke first, givng her stump speech and adding things about the crowd, she got tons of chants and support. Alot of JOBS BABY JOBS was shouted. She deserved it. She has done more for Barack than any other person who ran for president in the last 40 years combined. She didn't have to, but knows we need change.
Barack comes up to speak. He too gives his stump speech. I felt like they were friends. I knew what they were going to say, when they were going to say it. No Barack, I will not be hoodwinked or bamboozled, they won't play the okie doke on me. Not this time. Not this time. He states what everyone should state, that there is not one part of America more pro America than others (had to get that dig in there too). He speaks about Florida and our housing, education and job crisis. The crowd listens and responds. So many chants of YES WE CAN, YES WE CAN and USA USA USA and OBAMA OBAMA. There are cameras everywhere and a big projector for those that are further back than where I was to see.
A little thing I noticed when they finished speaking, Obama must have asked Hillary if she was thirsty, she must have said yes. He reached under the podium and took out a new bottle of water, opened it for her and passed it to her. I liked that respect and attention to detail. We need that.
It is all over in an hour. Obama steps into the crowd where I am and it all breaks loose, he is making his way around shaking hands and even stopped while on stage to look directly in people's cameras to take pictures.
I walked away, I knew I would not get to shake his hand and speak to him, but wanted others to feel they could try. Everytime he moved, the swell of the crowd would surge to that side. People that could not see him from the steps ran towards the stage, hoping for a glimpse, "is that him, where is he, is he over there" THERE HE IS, RUN! I knew why they were running, I had a chance to see it close enough, I have been following it, learning about it. They wanted a piece of it, to say it is true, to tell others that it does exist.
Hope.
GO VOTE! They will NOT steal this election. The people will be heard. Atleast I will be
haha.
I've never posted here before, but the site is generally good, Nate. As for the paranoic handwringers that are 'afraid' that McCain will somehow read the Post article and follow it to a t, and are mad at Nate for "helping the enemy", advice for you: get a life.
Hey libs: Guess we have divine intervention on our side. That's why we won Florida by 0.1% in 2000 and elected the greatest leader this nation ever had! You'll never beat us!
InkStain said...
"The fact that "reality has a liberal bias" (a phrase I'm taking credit for coining, iirc) has driven all the smart conservatives out"
------------------------------------
pat yourself wherever you want to bud, but you are delusional
for one, name those 'smart cons' that were "driven out" ???
pretty short/ non-existent list
smart opposition is always welcome & encouraged with rational discourse
look even NATE tried to play nice with the Post !!!
SEAN tries too - but on the road they mostly dis him, no ?
"Cardinal fans are a very accepting bunch, buy a red hat and your in. I loved the 2006 series! Went to two games!"
I was in St. Louis for a college newspaper convention during that WS. I hung out outside the ballpark on games 4 and 5, listening to the radio and watching the Jumbotron. You could see the ball in the air, including at least one home run. It was awesome.
But still, the Cardinals fans I know will not accept me :(
sherwick said...
real joe - for agreeing with me that NM is gone.
oh
If only the President didn't have a term limit. I'd vote Bush-Cheney again and again! And so would the rest of Real America! We need a true leader, not HUSSEIN!!!!
PeteKent - you are a Poe, right? It's just so hard to tell these days...
What will you do on Nov. 5th when you awaken to President and Vice President elect McCain and Palin?
The people who cling to God and guns don't vote for Muslims!
Here's a better strategy:
1. McCain and Palin should rally all of their supporters to drive SUV's and pollute like crazy to rapidly increase global warming.
2. Over the next ten days, the sea level will rise 30 feet and wipe out all of the coastal states.
3. McCain landslide!
"for one, name those 'smart cons' that were "driven out" ???"
Virginia Conservative, the real PeteKent, the real Mule Rider all had their moments.
"smart opposition is always welcome & encouraged with rational discourse"
I agree. It's not *our* fault they don't want to discuss things anymore. If Obama were down to a 5% chance to win, I wouldn't want to come here either. But it's making this site boring and group-thinky.
markymark said...
My point, inkstain, is that the US was set up as a liberal bastion against a conservative world, and sometimes it seems like the right conveniently forgets that.
Markymark, John Adams, Alexander Hamilton by today's standards would most likely be considered conservative in my opinion.
dcm,
Andrew Sullivan for one is a conservative that I respect deeply.
colin-
Great plan, they can hasten this with nuclear warheads launched at the poles to release giant icebergs to cause further sea level rise.
PeteKent said...
If only the President didn't have a term limit. I'd vote Bush-Cheney again and again! And so would the rest of Real America! We need a true leader, not HUSSEIN!!!!
-------------------------------
I second that! Have we been attacked since 9/11 all you Bush haters?
The more I think about, the better the strategy is...Wink. Wink.
As for the paranoic handwringers that are 'afraid' that McCain will somehow read the Post article and follow it to a t, and are mad at Nate for "helping the enemy", advice for you: get a life.
They can go ahead and follow it. Nate's map involves things like winning VA, which just aren't going to happen.
NV is also gone:
Nevada#
Clark Cnty html 160,000 Party
Dem 56.0%
Rep 27.9%
No/Oth 16.1%
Washoe Cnty html 35,563 Party
Dem 52.2%
Rep 32.1%
No/Oth 15.7%
These are the main two counties. 200k people have already voted. IN 2004, only 831k voted in total.
You libs will be crying either way. If McCain wins, we will have more republican dominance! If it doesn't, the Palin Revolution will crush you all and begin the Palin dynasty!!
HAHAHAHA!! YOU LIBERAL HIPPIES CAN'T WIN!!!
ahh yes, it is certainly less interesting without input from the other side.
a very entertaining story about how GOP donors view Palin's 'frugality'
http://www.newsweek.com/id/165666
@ C-J Happenings (yeah, it's a lousy screen name) -
Great post. I think the McCain/Palin people are angry because they're scared. A lot of them are scared that their dreams (which will never be achieved) to be in a tax bracket that BHO proposes to take slightly more heavily, are being threatened. They believe the b.s. McCain/Palin and, before them, Bush, Rove and Cheney, and the social conservatives have fed them. They can't think.
And they're frightened, too. Some of them believe the codswallop about BHO being a "sicalist" or, even worse, a Muslim. But most of them are afraid because he is AA. And while most of them will not admit their racism, it animates them. And they demonstrate it publicly and openly even as they try to hide it.
Most of all, people are afraid of change. They actually want 4 more years of a go-it-alone-nuke-uler presidency. They want their patriotic order to be preserved.
And their fear generates their hatred. It's the only emotion these people have. They don't have excitement. Their enthusiasm for Sarah Palin is tempered by their understanding that she (and her running mate, what's his name) are going to lose.
Pathetic, really.
"My point, inkstain, is that the US was set up as a liberal bastion against a conservative world, and sometimes it seems like the right conveniently forgets that."
Agreed. But rather than counter their revisionist version of America, I'd rather just ignore it. The only opinion of any founding father I care about is Thomas Jefferson's, who opined that we should have a Constitutional Convention every 20 years because government should belong to those who live under it, not past generations.
George W. Bush did nothing but make your lives better, you ungrateful liberal hippies! With Palin you won't be so lucky...she'll systematically eliminate you all!
Long live Palin I!!!!
If it doesn't, the Palin Revolution will crush you all and begin the Palin dynasty!!
Like a real armed insurgency?
I'm all for the Palin 2012 campaign. We might win 50 states.
It's already too late anyway. Media buys are done for the week. These decisions were made last week.
Here is their schedule for next weeks. Already in PA, and Florida. Oops.
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Calendar/
I will restate our plan. Maybe you liberal hippies will get scared and join us as spies.
The Palin Revolution targets:
Massachusetts(#1 in liberal hippies) - The Southerners will take boats up to Massachusetts and wage war with the Commiecrats. We will take Boston and exert our sphere of influence and destruction of the liberal hippies all throughout the Northeast. We will be aided by our allies in New Hampshire.
California (#2 in liberal hippies) - The Western States will crush California and their arsenal of liberal hippies handily.
Once we take these two, the rest of the liberal hippy unamerican commiecrat treasonous states will drop like flies!
GO PALIN!!! LEAD US TO VICTORY!!!
SERETSE
I was not talking about smart cons in general - only ones that INK siad were on this site before.
Sullivan & other national bloggers are fine & I can respect them
VA CON - not so much & Pete the Parrot was a GOPer talking point spammer of screeds that he cut & pasted on multiple blogs across the net
a very thin list of real cons with a rational demeanor were ever on this site - most were of the Jack Be Numbskull variety IMHO
Plus, you anti-gun liberal hippies won't be able to defend yourselves!!! HAHAHAHA
"Plus, you anti-gun liberal hippies won't be able to defend yourselves!!! HAHAHAHA"
North Dakota is voting blue, and we have a nuclear arsenal to match most countries. Bring it.
Yes, the high level of discourse from the repubs today is just amazing.
Go see VA Con at his board.
petekent isn't as funny as He...
North Dakota is real america. It will stay red and aid us in the systematic destruction of the liberal hippies.
FORWARD MARCH, AMERICAN CONSERVATIVES! HEAD TO MASSACHUSETTS AND CALIFORNIA AND DESTROY THEM ALL!!!!!!
InkStain said...
"Plus, you anti-gun liberal hippies won't be able to defend yourselves!!! HAHAHAHA"
North Dakota is voting blue, and we have a nuclear arsenal to match most countries. Bring it.
----------------------------------
As if you are in-charge of the arsenal! If Obama wins the blacks will be taking over ND anyway.
Don't go down on Nate.
First he has only given the same advice that anybody would get who reads his figures.
Second any politician has access to good advice. The only question whether they choose to make use of it. MCCain never has. Obama always has.
Finaly Nate's advice is just too late. The ad's are probably already paid for. The people in place in PA. Move them again and it will take them too long to get orientated to do much good.
Hey Pete,
Texas beat OU and Okie State. And since we all know that people from Oklahoma have no teeth, you should be the cocksucker. Okies, good blow jobs and they love to swallow!
CORREA
thanks for the wonderful recap of the rally - it must have been worth the effort !
I got to meet Jill Biden on Friday here in New Symrna Beach, shake her hand after her speech & briefly talk about education before she was whisked off to go down to Cocoa for another event
it was nice to get up close & personal - I did not expect that to happen, but I also made a point of tracking down several of the local volunteers & activists to thank them personally for all that they were doing
I think how you gave up your position & chance to get nearer to Obama was admirable - everyone wants a piece of him now...
can you imagine what it will be like with both Bill & Barack in the house together ?
Nate,
Interesting story. How about one ( for this site, if not for a newspaper...) on how Barack Obama can "clinch"?
The fact that they are so few intelligent conservatives willing to defend McSame and Caribou Barbie speaks volumes.
This site may be more boring without them, but what website has any?
I'm not gay like laker and the rest of his liberal hippy massachusetts commiecrat gay marriage loving brethren!
DESTROY THE LIBERAL HIPPIES!!!!
"PeteKent" is a sock puppet. The real "PeteKent" doesn't have a Blogger ID. The sock puppet is more absurd and even funnier than the original. Mule Rider is just pathetic.
"Agreed. But rather than counter their revisionist version of America, I'd rather just ignore it. The only opinion of any founding father I care about is Thomas Jefferson's, who opined that we should have a Constitutional Convention every 20 years because government should belong to those who live under it, not past generations."
Where did jefferson suggest this?
Where is He? I can't wait for his latest installment.
Who needs a 10-Day Plan when you've got electoral fraud.
ES&S Touch-Screen Votes Now Flipping Democratic Votes To Republican... Obama/DNC Attorneys Still AWOL
State After State, ES&S iVotronics Are Flipping Democratic Votes to Republican.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6559
Obama +15 Iowa. so goes iowa, so goes america.
http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2008/10/25/news/breaking_news/doc4903890740db0457887786.txt
Page search on "eek" tells me no one else has noted the Freudian slip in the Post's diagram caption.
I think only something that makes us go "eek!" could enable McCain to "eek out a win." Otherwise I fully agree with the analysis---I was so glad about rumors of pulling out of CO because Kerry+IA+NM+CO does it, and losing NH from that stillleaves the 269-all tie scenario.
I do think a bounceback giving him OH+FL is quite possible.
McCain is going to win, just listen to the freepers today:
"Well, there is another story out there that the MSM refuses to address. A huge story. One that could, and I think will, significantly affect the outcome of this race. I'm referring to the widespread phenomenon of registered Democrats openly supporting John McCain. There are numerous "Democrats for McCain" type organizations. There are numerous websites and blogs written by Democrats touting McCain's candidacy. There are pro-McCain grassroots efforts being led by Democrats. And we all know friends or relatives who are Democrats, who voted for John Kerry in 2004, and who are no fans of President Bush - but who are going to vote for John McCain this year.
Yet, surprise surprise, the mainstream media is not talking about these voters, not talking about the real rift that is occurring within the ranks of the Democratic Party. Needless to say, if a similar rift were occurring in the Republican Party, it would be treated as the major story that it is. (Indeed, as such stories about the political fault lines in the Republican Party have been treated in the recent past.)
Who are these pro-McCain Democratic voters? They overwhelmingly tend to be former Hillary supporters. Perhaps the most well-known of these voters are the "PUMAs" - which stands for Party Unity My Ass. These are Hillary supporters who are adamantly opposed to Obama. Let's not forget that during the Democratic primaries - real elections, not polls - Hillary crushed Obama among white working-class and middle-class voters in such key states as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. If a meaningful number of these voters end up voting for McCain, as I predict they will, then Obama's smooth road to the White House is going to run smack into a brick wall."
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/signs_pointing_to_a_mccain_vic.html
PA John said...
"PeteKent" is a sock puppet. The real "PeteKent" doesn't have a Blogger ID. The sock puppet is more absurd and even funnier than the original. Mule Rider is just pathetic.
---------------------------------
...says the internet investigator who has an online rolodex of everyone's "Blogger ID."
It will be awesome, and I will be changing the name of my blog TODAY!!!
Jill was here this morning and I think Joe is too, between them and Michele also, Orlando is def the place to be to see them all. Fantastic, damn we better turn blue.
My verification word: fruper I would take that as Scooby Doo saying that today's standings are "super"
~Yari
I'm not gay like laker and the rest of his liberal hippy massachusetts commiecrat gay marriage loving brethren!
BUT I SURE WOULD LIKE TO RIDE MULE RIDER LIKE MULE!! OH YES!!!
david said...
The fact that they are so few intelligent conservatives willing to defend McSame and Caribou Barbie speaks volumes.
[Not really, this site is not only liberal leaning, it forces McCain supporters to come to grips with a looming reality and so I don't believe it's a very attractive place for them to exchange ideas]
This site may be more boring without them, but what website has any?
I like redstate.com
National Review sometimes has some good commentary but the desperation has given way to them searching every rabbit hole in search of a game changer.
Mccain is in iowa tomorrow as well. Praise Jesus.
Vote YES to Proposition 8!
No gays, no how, no way!
Yes!! McCain is stealing the election!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!
And where is your messiah Obama now? NOT CARING, JUST LIKE KERRY!!! HAHAHA!!!!
McCain-Palin 08!
I click on the McCain banner every time I visit this site (often). I also make 30K/year and this is the first time I've ever given money to a political campaign. 1% of my gross income to the Obama Campaign. The problem with the GOP is they are looking for someone to blame using a shotgun strategy. They're trying to find a scapegoat that the public will resonate with - so they're trying out everything. For example: black churches, socialists, liberals, elites, scientists, secularists, Wall Street, hippies, Gov't workers, community organizations, immigrants, the poor, the media, socialists, New Yorkers, Northern Virginians, DC residents, Europeans, Chinese, Russians homosexuals, Muslims, Arabs, environmentalists etc. At this point they've managed to blame like 70% of the population for America's problems. Personally, I was offended by McCain's "New York" comment. We're American enough for Bin Laden but not for you? You said everyone was a New Yorker when it was politically convenient but now we're elitists? You had your convention here in '04 but now we're the enemy? As someone who actually WAS affected by 911 I have been so offended that I will dedicate my life to making sure the GOP is revealed as nothing more than a petty hate group. Thanks for reading and keep up the good discussions everyone!
MULE RIDER, ride me baby ride me!
FRED
who is clinging to their beliefs ??? lol
as it stands right now, Obama wins without OH, WV or even PA if he wins CO & NM & IA & NH & FL & NC & VA or any combo of those states to reach 270+
so let them keep dreaming & beating themselves up in a losing effort
MULIE I WANT YOUR MAKAKA!!
Contrary to DJW http://tinyurl.com/679oeh I think this is an excellent idea http://tinyurl.com/66rd2n
Bring out the Original. And also campaign with Cheney.
Is this vote flipping stuff real?
That other petekent is copying me. He's sad that MCCAIN AND PALIN ARE GOING TO STEAL THE ELECTION AWAY FROM THE LIBERAL HIPPIES!!!!!!!!! HAHAHA!!!!!!
If Palin becomes the face of the republicans they will go the way of the whigs.
If Obama does a reasonable job the republicans are sunk for a generation.
You can see on the face of the McCain talking head they know all is lost.
Vote yes to 8!! Mulie and I will celebrate!! I have to Astro-Glide. OHHHHHHH MULLLLLLIEEEEEE.
The other petekent is a flaming fag.
Vote YES TO PROPOSITION 8!
No gays, no how, no way!
PeteKent said...
Palin will lead a revolution. The patriotic states will seceed from the traitorous nation led by Hussein.
LONG LIVE PALIN I!!!!
----------------------------
God, I hope so! That would be great. Then all the economically productive states would be able to stop subsidizing all the goober states (sorry, "patriotic" states). We would become a leaner, meaner world power; you would essentially become Paraguay. Let's do it!
I AM BEING COPIED!!! MULIE STOP THEM!!! THEN GIVE IT TO ME!!! YOU KNOW WHERE!!!
It's over, libs. The republicans will steal this election for the good of our country and our democracy.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!
Palin will lead a revolution. The patriotic states will seceed from the traitorous nation led by Hussein.
And I will ride Mulie - hard!!!
It's over, libs. The republicans will steal this election for the good of our country and our democracy.
RIDE ME MULIE RIDE ME!!
It is hard to imagine McCain and Palin being on (the same) message for the remainder of the election. As they do damage control on their reputations, they will be pointing at each other and the factions within the Republican party they represent.
If the projections hold, the question is whether the power brokers will be able to hold together the more socially moderate fiscal conservatives and the evangelicals.
The Palin crowd will claim McCain was not forceful enough and too moderate to begin with. The Buckley et al. Republicans are going to push for less control by the far right.
Whig party revival?
Must be a lib-tard sock puppet copying petekent! Must be a black trying to be funny.Epic fail
Yeah right you liberal hippy. Palinia would become the new world superpower while the United States of Hussein would become Sudan!
Commenting on Nate's article.
It is a great strategy, but too late in the game. Schedules are already set , minds are being made up. Things don't just turn on a dime at this point in the race, never has. McCain just doesn't get it. For McCain to have this work, Obama has to be silent, obviously that will not happen.
There is no reason to suggest now that McCain's team will go with the smart route when in fact, they've ignored logic since March. Furthermore, it is too late for McCain to have this strategy take hold, there are 6 days left for news cycles that are important.
Obama owns 4 next week.
1.Bill&Obama
2. Lead up to his speech
3. His speech
4. Analysis on this speech
And McCain has not been able to stick on point, quite frankly, i don't think he can or cares to.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the repubs next week and after the election, but for it to happen we must win first. Vote, and GOTV!
fred said...
Is this vote flipping stuff real?
YES. How else can you see McCain win, or the Republicans minimize losses, other than outright criminality?
The other petekent is a flaming fag.
AND I LIKE IT!!!
YES PETEY YES!! DRILL BABY DRILL!!!
Nate should now post an equal write up of what Obama needs to do for a landslide EV victory (370+).
McCain and Palin will steal the election for the good of our country! Get ready to cry on 11/5, liberal hippies!!! HAHAHAHAHA
Percentages just updated to 95.7/4.3... should be a GOOD NEWS FOR OBAMA polling update soon.
Drill Petey Drill!!
Say No to gays!!
We need to genocide ALL of the liberal hippies!
mysticlaker said...
Obama +15 Iowa. so goes iowa, so goes america.
http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2008/10/25/news/breaking_news/doc4903890740db0457887786.txt
McCain is going great in Iowa..NOT
McCain is wasting time & money in Iowa
Tell me why 98% of blacks voting for a black is not racist?? Tell me why Petey makes me feel so damn good?
DRILL ME PETEY DRILL ME
The United States of America is about to completely repudiate filthy conservatism and every disgusting conservative myth shall fall. Conservatism is a miserable failure.
If, as stupid conservatives bleat, God put GWB in office, then His purpose was to make sure that no pathetic conservative EVER gets into the White House ever again. Americans have learned their lesson.
REALITY HAS A LIBERAL BIAS!!!!!
We will steal the election. The libs will cry but they can do nothing!! HAHAHAHAHA!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!
The election will be stolen for the sake of democracy and freedom.
Vote YES to Proposition 8!
No gays, no how, no way!
DRILL ME PETEKENT DRILL!
DNFTFT
Perhaps Nate's strategery is as good as it gets, but it ain't good, not at all. Here's why. McCain will not win Virgnia, Colorado, North Carolina, and Ohio. He has to win all of them with prescribed strategery. Plus, even if he wins all of them, if he keeps New Hampshire too, but loses Nevada or New Mexico he's toast. The chances of holding the fort is virtually zero. The 5% chance in Nate's projection issimply too high. I'd bet that if Nate had to create odds as a bookie playing fair with true chances, they're about 2%. There's a 1% chance McCain will come back conventionally and win through strategic battleground play and another 1% something crazy will happen in the next 10 days. There's certainly not a 5% chance that Nate's prescription in the paper will work.
Just saw on Fox News:
McCain rally pepared for 3000 in NM. Less than 1000 showed up.
Obama rally expecting 25000 - already filling up.
Not a good sign for McCain.
I don't think Palin will preserve her influence. There are still people like Huckabee (remember him?) with REAL grassroots in the evangelical community.
I think palin's star will fade soon. Influence is built over time. Palin has not built anything.
@ petekent,
Are you copying/pasting your posts from the previously days posts
So pessimistic...you sound like a broken vinyl record.
Original thinking, clever phrases,
thoughtful analysis, positive
outlook is much more impressive.
I hope you really enjoy your
Tuesday on November 4th.
The election will be stolen for the sake of democracy, freedom, and Mule Rider's amazing ass!!
Yes MULE RIDER I WILL DRILL BABY DRILL!!!
Jindal and Palin have been to Iowa in the last week. GOP strategery for 2012. I have news for them. Neither would have a chance in hell against OBama or any other best of breed Dem in 2012. Sorry Bobby and Iceberg.
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