Something is a little bit funny when Matt Drudge is treating 1-2 point gains for McCain in the Rasmussen and Zogby tracking polls as "BREAKING" news. Naturally, Drudge ignores other results like the just-released ABC/WaPo poll that show Obama continuing to gain ground.
Drudge has a nose for news, and he knows that a one-point gain in a tracking poll is not news -- unless someone desperately wants it to be.
So here's what I think is going on.
The McCain campaign is planning on a major "reboot" of its campaign in some point in advance of Wednesday night's debate. This will take on something of the form that Bill Kristol advocates in his must-read Monday AM piece in the Times, including some combination of (i) pledging to run a positive campaign; (ii) firing/demoting Steve Schmidt and or/Rick Davis; (iii) apologizing for his campaign's tone. In fact, Kristol's column may be something of a trial balloon for this strategy.
What the McCain campaign really, really doesn't want is for this move to be portrayed as desperate stunt. McCain has already developed a reputation for being a bit erratic under pressure -- the ABC/Post poll now shows that a 48-45 plurality of voters trust Obama to handle an "unexpected major crisis" -- and Bill Burton and Robert Gibbs must be foaming at the mouth waiting to spin something like this.
The only way for McCain to do that is for him to convince the media that he already had the momentum. The campaign will probably try and claim the moral highground, perhaps contrasting McCain's repudiation of the woman who called Obama an "Arab" on Friday against John Lewis's comments from Saturday. They will suggest that McCain found his voice, and made the "maverick" move of telling off the Beltway Republicans who were urging him to go for blood. They will suggest that the reboot is a continuation of this strategy, and that -- as the Zogby poll so obviously attests to! -- voters were already responding favorably to McCain's new tone.
It won't be an easy spin war for them to win. But they'd seem to have little left to lose, and if the media is reminded of the "old" McCain, they may tend to give his narrative the benefit of the doubt.
10.13.2008
Is Drudge Priming a McCain "Reboot" Narrative?
@ 2:50 AM
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I'm lucky I get to see this great stuff first when it's in edit mode, so I get a sneak preview. Greatest graph ever, Nate.
This is good news, for John McCain.
Also fits with Halperin's current "Reset" headline...
http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/12/press-reset-if-campaign-freezes-and-seems-broken/
Is Drudge connected enough to the McCain camp to know this? Has he correctly predicted/hinted at campaign moves in the past?
It really depends on what direction the news networks decide to take with it. The people spinning it on either side will spin it, naturally.
But the Media networks, rather than liberal or conservative bias, have been erratic in when and where they seem to push the narrative.
My bet is that they'll cast it in a positive light, because CNN in particular has been majorly trying to downplay the "Obama leads in polls, major lead for Obama." Every time one of their panelists starts to call the race as in the bag, they end the segment or change subject. Their own reporters too.
The Networks need a tight race.
It's still Sunday night on the west coast, cheaters!
Drudge isn't the only one calling this to alert. Fox News put out their "FOX ALERT!!!!" on Geraldo today (all 30 seconds I caught of it while flipping channels). The alert was the same as Drudge's.
It does look currently like the financial news has hit a slowing point, and that the new news cycle will kind of slow down the tone of disaster. Which does give McCain some ability to rewrite what is newsworthy.
But I think in general, the news is not news. People's minds are still going to be on the economy, and not on John McCain's sudden decision to make over his image.
McCain's going to have to find some way to rein in Palin if he wants to go the kinder, gentler route.
She seems to have totally not gotten the memo about backing off of the violent rhetoric.
Funny,
I had just finished reading the Kristol piece when I clicked over to find this new entry.
Needless to say, but a "reboot" worries me.
I don't care how good the numbers are (9:1, 20:1), just one month ago you wrote that the only reason for Obama to be in North Carolina was to help Hagan. Now look where we are!
The good lord may have giveth, but he (or she) can sure as hell taketh away (and before November 4th, too).
Obama's response will be: "If you knew that you had to raise the tenor of this campaign, why wait until so late? Perhaps it's honor that motivates this latest stunt, or perhaps the increase in negative polling. Or you could've shown some judgment and not gone negative to begin with."
You MAY be right nate, but then again..you may not be. Lets be honest, Monday and Tuesday are the last two days for mccain to do something "game-changing"...wednesday is the debate...and he has to go in with the message based on monday and tuesday. Past wednesday, its all political theatre, and thats game over for mccain.
So, i do agree they'll try to trumpet some sort of message before wednesday, but...if its anything that sounds remotely dramatic...i reallly....and i mean really doubt it will win him any voters.
This guy moves in 1000 directions at once, and even the old people who barely watch the news are seeing it.
McCain went from down 11 to down 7 in the Gallup poll. And from 7 or 8 in Rasmussen to 5.
Reporters want the horse race, nothing more.
Maybe you could, ya know, punch these numbers in your formula instead of poo pooing them. I am sure if they had happened to Obama he would have gained another 10 electoral votes by now on your chart.
The media will surely buy into anything it's fed that has any measure of sustenance. But this move, even if it sways the media, will have a negligible effect on McCain's polling. As it is, he's only maintaining the support of those types of loudmouth cretins with his campaigns tacit approval of their comments. If he comes out and formally rebukes them, he'll lose that 2-4% of voters who desperately want his campaign to condemn Obama. And the damage he's done to independents and GOP leaners is irreversible. They won't forget what he's been doing, at least not in less than a month.
Warning, tired, cranky, scared stunt man... without a net.
The media's not looking for a "reboot"--McCain's wedded to his gravest errors... and dumping a campaign manager three weeks before the election will smell like week=old fish as far as desperation goes.
Spinning a 1-2 point shift in some of the polls as "momentum" is going to looked at against the backdrop of the shift over 8 points AWAY from him... and the growing wave of national revulsion for his running mate (BAD JUDGMENT there, John)... who is going to be eating flaming Troopergate any time she sticks her head out of undisclosed location terrain.
Shorter form: McCain wants to persuade people that he's bringing home the tiger when in fact, he's in the unenviable position of having no choice but to hold on to... or let go of... the tiger's tail. Spinning being eaten alive is going to be a neat trick.
What I would do if I was Obama, and this is true:
"We congratulate McCain on his decision to return this race to a race about ideas and policies. Now, lets talk about those ideas...new unemployment figures say blah blah blah, while the foreclosure rate is blah blah blah"
The McCain Alert System needs little McCain heads wearing appropriate expressions next to each color. You're welcome.
Seriously, what's he going to say? "My friends, I allowed myself to be totally dominated and manipulated by a bunch of unscrupulous political hacks. My entire campaign has not been me at all, but was based on a lie. And now I'm admitting it, because I couldn't take it anymore. Sooooo.... vote for me!! You can totally trust my judgment to make decisions affecting your lives!"
Maybe he can have a new campaign slogan - "McCain. He tells the truth eventually."
He's made his bed. He has to lie in it and pretend to like it.
Also-
Listen guys, obama gets the last word on all of everything going on. Hes BUYING 30 MINUTES DURING PRIMETIME ON ALL THE MAJOR NETWORKS FOR GODS SAKE.
I emphasize that because even if people dont watch, when a candidate makes his own television special, you damn well better believe the media will be all over it.
The last word...will be Obamas.
Here's what I think: the markets are poised to rise tomorrow. That's good news, as far as McCain is concerned. He'll play it off as a success, as a relief, as if it's all his doing and as if the time for concern has passed. We'll see, tomorrow, if it actually has. I'm not optimistic, but it may appear, if one only looks at the Dow, that things take a turn upwards. Then he'll try to say that the best thing to do to move the markets further is not to penalize investors, not to deter them from getting involved in the stock market. He'll say that the market is just limping along, and though we had a good day on Monday (tomorrow), we need to do everything we can to get the market back up to levels that it was at before.
Of course, this all betrays his absolute idiocy with regard to the recent economic turmoil. But fuck it, he's naive about economics, and so is most of the country. There will probably be a collective sigh of relief tomorrow, thanks to the European banks...
@ Oliver . . .
I hope you're right.
Its all how the polls get reported. And the idea that the media wants a horserace definately benefits McCain. We see small movements, inside the margin of error, and they want to claim its momentum (Joementium?). If the WaPo poll thats +10 Obama gets poo-pooed by the press over the next 24 hours, McCain gets the green light for the reboot on Tuesday morning.
McCain is like a fish thats been hooked, drawn out of the water, and set loose on the boats deck. He's flopping around frantically gasping for air desperately looking for a way out, but knowing it will all soon be over.
Chuck Todd form a couple weeks ago:
"After the last debate, It's likely the polls will remain in a holding pattern until election day."
So McCain's got one debate left with a large audience and Obama has trounced him in the last 2 debates. The voters are on to McCain. Obama has painted him as erratic, and and new shift will cement that idea.
Obama/Axelrod are playing 2 moves ahead on the board right now, we're in the end game.
Even if the stock market rises, people are still spooked about the economy. I think one important reason Obama has been peeling votes off McCain is that Obama shows empathy for the problems of "average Americans". McCain can talk about his capital gains tax-cut but after the bailout, I don't think people are in the mood to hand more money over to rich investors.
I think it's too late for a "game-changer" by the McCain camp. If this were the first time he tried it, I think people would buy it, but good lord! He seems to throw hail marys so much that people just expect another one to be a gimmick.
WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN
Thanks Nate
These were thoughts I had also regarding McCain's irrationality index. One should never corner an animal, because he is likely to growl and knock over your carefully laid chess pieces.
In other words: John McCain, once again breaking new ground in campaign stuntology, is now preparing to Sister Souljah himself.
Hmm. Maybe. Not convinced, mostly because there have been so many tacks and jibes by the McCain camp that this may come off as yet another one... and then be framed as such by at least some of the MSM.
To me, the bigger question apropos the post is: Just how coordinated do you think this effort is/would be? With Kristol, Drudge, even Schmidt and/or Davis, not to mention McCain himself, it just makes me think that basically everyone would have to be in on this, including a few willing sacrificial lambs. I wouldn't put anything past them, but this strikes me as vaguely conspiratorial across all aforementioned players (and more), and therefore I'm skeptical. On top of all that, with who knows what further catastrophic financial/economic news on the near horizon, even this potential change in narrative would get eclipsed by the next major meltdown... resulting, again, in a shift to Obama.
Anyway, insightful piece.
I wonder what 'Steady John";s economic and political plans are for the day-after-tomorrow?
they seem to change more often than a drag queen in a 1-man show!
Very hard for McCain to change the perception of himself as erratic and out of touch. His behavior has been erratic and it makes him seem not just old but TOO old. He isn't going to look younger by Wednesday.
And there is the problem of his stupid choice of a running mate. He is not going to change the perception of her as a joke and as a scary option for president by Wednesday.
Actually, Uncle Bushie FORCED the legislative branch to pass the bailout plan, by threatening to declare martial law, therefore postponing the election...FEMA is on his side now that he had congress pass that little piece of legislation not too long ago. Since Obama isn't playing by the Bushies' rules, they're gonna make it "seem" close so they can"fix" the election yet again...I wouldn't put it past him, here is a prez who hasn't won an election yet!
~Special council for the Trees...
I do not understand why so many people care about the economy for?
A natural capitalistic economy goes through many boom and bust cycles and what better way to reroute a bust than a war to stimulate the economy!
This makes John McCain the obvious presidential choice!
Besides, Obama will probably be assassinated if he gets elected anyway, so is this not a race between Biden and McCain?
I'm waiting for a more interesting event than the last debate; McShame's appearance on Letterman Thursday night! Will Letterman rip McShame a new one? Will McShame apologize or will he get irritated and argue with Letterman? I hope Letterman doesn't pull any punches.
@Dean
Serves you right for trying to hunt a wild animal with a chess set.
wildwestauthority said...
McCain went from down 11 to down 7 in the Gallup poll. And from 7 or 8 in Rasmussen to 5.
Reporters want the horse race, nothing more.
Maybe you could, ya know, punch these numbers in your formula instead of poo pooing them. I am sure if they had happened to Obama he would have gained another 10 electoral votes by now on your chart.
So ... are you actually a fucking idiot, or do you just play one on the internet?
They ARE in Nate's model. All public polls (non-internals) are in Nate's model. Unlike the FReeptards and the jackasses over at RCP, Nate doesn't cherry pick.
Srsly. Buy a fucking clue, dipshit.
It's logical than Obama will not remain with a double digit or high single digit lead. Don't forget than the country is divided ideologically and there is more voters right-center. Never forget these facts same if Bush is with a 20% approval.
The reality is than Obama lead by 5-6 nationally at this moment.
On election day, i always think than will be close by 1-3 but not more.
The other reality is than it's McCain who need to go on election day with a 1-2 lead because (mark my words), the turnout amoung young and minorities will be more than Rasmussen, zogby and others stupid pollsters think.
And also Obama has a unprecedented ground game
Unfortunately McCain deciding to run a decent campaign in a decent manner won't change any of his policies.
He's still for lower taxes in all cases, reduced regulation and oversight, conservative judges. military force rather than diplomacy. He still has a temper and he still has Palin and her culture wars and Christian Domionism.
Not a winning recipe.
While it s a plausible scenario, I don't see it happening./
You don't fire your campaign manager 22 days before an election.
You don't apologize for the campaign you were running as late as one week ago when your own selling point is good judgement and honor. Apologizing is fine but it s implying that Democrats were right and his campaign had been filthy until now.
Also that would be ONE more time McCain follows exactly what Kristol writes and expect pundits to notice.
And finally, it just doesn't jibe with McCain's behavior. McCain is PISSED OFF. You can tell and you can see it. And when he is losing, he isn't nice, no matter what the narrative is.
Also, McCain has already shaky support among conservative elites. For every independent that may be tempted to give him second consideration if he did this (and likely go back to Obama in the end for the same structural reason that created the current poll numbers) there will be a base voter convinced that Obama is in and we should just let the old man lose and start fresh in 2012 since it is lost anyway and McCain is spitting in their face by apologizing for their filth.
I don't see it happening but then again how many Hail Mry's haven't I seen coming.
Yes, but since Palin has been the mouthpiece for the most incendiary attacks, such a move invariably involves kicking Palin off the ticket if it is to be seen in any way, shape, or form as sincere.
And doing that will cause the conservative base to shoot him down faster than a Vietnamese S.A.M.
just saw this on Think Progress:
"...the New York Times states that the McCain campaign will "not have any more proposals this week unless developments call for some." Spokesman Tucker Bounds said: “We do not have any immediate plans to announce any policy proposals outside of the proposals that John McCain has announced, and the certain proposals that would result as economic news continues to come our way.” The Times notes this as "signs of internal confusion" from the campaign."
note the phrase --"signs of internal confusion"
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/12/politico-cap-gains-dividends-2/
Perhaps a reading of Elisabeth Kübler-Ross's "On Death and Dying" would be instructive - to see which of the five stages of death the McCain Campaign is in.
Clearly we've seen the Anger stage, as well as the Denial and Isolation stage. And many examples of the Bargaining stage (picking Palin, hiring his 2000 election tormentors, etc).
So how about depression and acceptance?
I don't think McCain could reliably silence Palin and the staff he'd have to fire: the "disarray" narrative and hard questions about McCain's actual role would come hard and fast. Doesn't mean he might not try it: if the media buys in, it could salvage his reputation and it gets him a bunch of news cycles as the "reboot" progresses (though, like the "campaign suspension," I'd expect big cosmetic changes with little core correction) and gains some ground (since the race tends to tighten at the end).
post hoc ergo propter hoc is as good as most political analysis gets in this country....
About the Obama groung game, read this article and this :
" In Missouri, about 400 neighborhood teams are set up around the state, each with a goal of getting about 4,000 votes in their area. The hope, said Missouri director Buffy Wicks, is as get-out-the-vote efforts intensify in the campaign's final weeks, the teams will have established themselves enough to deliver the backing that Obama will need."
400 * 4000 = 1.600.000 votes.
145.000 votes more than Bush in 2004.
And the article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/11/AR2008101102119_3.html?nav=hcmodule
Wouldn't work. And going on past performance, they'd blow it, anyway.
The idea that McCain is going to fire the Rovites, lobbyists, and scumbags running his campaign is laughable.
And it wouldn't work anyway.
"...races always tighten towards the end..."
Wrong.
Recent ones have - usually by 2-4% points - but many have not (in the 1990s and 1984-1988 they WIDENED in the final weeks.
"http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-TrialHeat-Trends-19362004.aspx#1"
nate, there's a fine line between your (diabolical) theory and that kind of black-helicopters-of-the-new-world-order thinking in which only governors up in alaska engage. with the polls where they're at this late in the game, regardless of the political shennanigans mccain tries to pull off between now and november 4, there remain only 3 remotely likely things that could prevent barack obama from being sworn in as POTUS #44 on my birthday (in order of likelihood):
1) the bradley effect
2) the re-emergence of bin laden either through videotape, capture, or major terrorist attack
3) the assassination of barack obama
i hate to bring up #3, but it's in the backs of the minds of many obama supporters (including mine), and, given the recent nutjobbery displayed at mccain-palin rallies, i've moved it up from "practically impossible" to "remotely likely."
About the ONLY viable plan that McCain could propose would be similar to the plan the Brits announced over the weekend. Basically, the UK government will invest approx. 20 billion pounds in RBS and force a merger of HBOS with Lloyds TSB and then invest up to 17 billion pounds in the merged bank. It also will require a review of the pay and perks that banking directors receive, will have the right to agree to the appointment of new independent non-executives on banks' boards, and that banks must commit to helping people struggling with mortgage payments to stay in their homes.
The UK government intervention would be in the form of common and 'preference' (I think what we in the US called preferred) stock, with a new arms length body to manage the Government's shareholdings in recapitalised institutions on a professional and wholly commercial basis, and seek to effectively realise value to the taxpayer.
More details in a London Times article at:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4933657.ece
I don't think McCain would be able to pull this off though, as it smacks of 'too much socialism' to the far right 'free marketers', or at a minimum they would scream that it's too much government interference in the free market. And this would be the nose of the camel under the edge of the tent leading to too much regulation blah blah blah.
It also would go against the 'principals' he says he has been fighting for all his political career.
In other words, McCain will not be able to put forward a cogent and/or workable proposal for the economy without a lot of the base he has remaining screaming, or the public sensing that it is another zig and zag in his campaign.
I just read Kristol's op-ed piece. He starts out by praising Obama's campaign and condemning McCain's.
"The McCain campaign, once merely problematic, is now close to being out-and-out dysfunctional. Its combination of strategic incoherence and operational incompetence has become toxic."
Don't see that as being a big vote-getter.
But then Kristol becomes his usual delusional self. Among his bad advice is to give the media total access to McCain and Palin. Normally that would seem sensible, but with these two that's a huge gamble. All the campaign needs is another "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" sound bite or another bit of nonsensical babble from Palin.
And Kristol further advises McCain to present himself as the cheerful and upbeat candidate. That sounds bizarre to me. What's he supposed to do? Tell cheery jokes? Hey, folks did you hear the one about the banks now robbing you?
I don't see a bright future for Kristol as a campaign adviser.
alley:
Regarding your #2:
Unless McCain captures Bin Laden personally, would not his capture or death help Obama - by removing a potential terror threat from the stage and making Americans feel marginally safer - thus moving 'foreign affairs/terrorism' even lower in the ranking of things voters are basing their votes on?
I am sensing a bit of uncharacteristic and unjustified anxiety in Nate's last two posts (the Grudge thing and defending the 5.9%). I think he is just having a bad evening with his cold and all.
Nate: Have a good night sleep and feel better tomorrow. You are doing such a great job with this site, that you can certainly afford to take a rest when you are not feeling 100%.
National Security/Terrorism should be the # 1 issue people should be basing their decisions on.
It amazes me that people value the economy over security.
According to this (Reuters)
http://tinyurl.com/3lrzo8
"With the clock ticking down on his chance to narrow the gap, McCain will unveil a new stump speech that a campaign aide said would mark a "more forceful tone" by the Arizona senator in his run for the presidency."
[snip]
"And McCain intends to keep up attacks on Obama's character, the campaign source said, despite signs the tactic has not gained much traction."
Personally, I think that if McCain were to try the "reformed character" play (and even assuming he could get Palin to play along with it) it would be perceived as "withdrawing with dignity" rather than as a strong or winning move.
McCain: I'm Going To "Whip" Obama At The Debate
By Eric Kleefeld - October 13, 2008, 12:13AM
Check out this latest gaffe from John McCain: He boasted that he intends to "whip" Barack Obama's posterior at the debate this Wednesday.
"We're going to spend a lot of time and after I whip his you-know-what in this debate, we're going to be going out 24/7," McCain told a crowd of volunteers at the campaign's national headquarters in Virginia.
YOU cal this a reboot of mccain's moribund and negative campaign?
Yeah right!!!!
Nate, Methinks you are reading way too much into the tealeaves.
Way, way, waaaay too much.
The way I see it, about the only way the McCain campaign would undertake such a radical action would be if they were already convinced they had nothing to lose. And I don't people inside the McCain organization have come to that point yet.
Although, we'll really know within the next 72 hours. If there is going to be a pro-actively produced game-changer from the McCain campaign, it's gonna *have* to happen before the next debate. After that, everything starts to solidify pretty damn fast.
Thanks for a good late night post, Nate. I couldn't sleep and it's fun to think about what McCain might be planning. He has made so many bad moves that he has made it almost impossible to successfully turn his campaign around.
Here is a man who wants us to see him as the best choice for commander-in-chief. Yet he never seemed to have a campaign strategy and the most apt description of the organization he put together is chaotic. Bad at strategy and bad at selecting a team. Proof that being in the military does not automatically make one a good leader.
"champion88 said...
It amazes me that people value the economy over security."
A strong Economy = Security. We didn't win the cold war by just having a great military. We had a strong economy and the USSR's economy imploded......
Here is what I think happens:
McCain declares he and Palin will run a positive campaign. Ever schizophrenic Kristol will get his way.
Fox News, Drudge, and the 527s will unleash smear after smear that McCain will inevitably be questioned about, and he will of course rise above it all and say he's only interested in the issues. Nobody cares what McCain says anyway, so he's better off deflecting and looking presidential.
Drudge playing up the horrific burning of a McCain sign and Malkin's response to the "angry mob" meme will be turned back on Obama. Obama supporters will be smeared and the right will attempt to stoke fears of some kind of race riot.
Don't be surprised if crime stories start getting played up by the right. It's not terrorism, it's your kids, your streets, your parks. The Rezko story will make a comeback concurrent with McCain preaching "law and order." The economic downturn will be used as a way to incite fear of poor people turning to crime. If "terrorist" isn't enough to attach to Obama, "criminal" will bring it closer to home. Don't be shocked to see Fox News showing wanted signs of African-American fugitives who perpetrated crimes against white victims.
But I don't think Fox will be enough to save them. This depends on the mainstream media picking it up as well. If it really were closer, McCain might be able to pull if off, and he still has a chance. But Obama's ground game should see him through.
At least going positive will ease McCain's inevitable guilt over what his campaign turned into. He'll like it.
Maybe McCain invested his 80+ million in funds into the futures markets on Friday and now has enough money to compete with Obama.
Wasn't Palin Kristol's idea? I can't personally see how they'd succcessfully spin "firing the campaign" with 3 weeks to go.
But then again, I never would've guessed half of the crap they've come up with so far.
recent comments like "the economy has hurt us a little bit in the last two weeks" "whip his you know what"
mccain is an out of touch creep-always was and always will be.
what is he going to change? he said these things yesterday (and other dirt) so know he is going to say ive seen the light? forget what i said yesterday???? who is going to believe him?
champion88 said...
I do not understand why so many people care about the economy for?
A natural capitalistic economy goes through many boom and bust cycles and what better way to reroute a bust than a war to stimulate the economy!
This makes John McCain the obvious presidential choice!
Besides, Obama will probably be assassinated if he gets elected anyway, so is this not a race between Biden and McCain?
...
Dear racist douchelicking rectal squirt,
Please save your fuckwit comments for your next Klan rally. The grown-ups are talking here.
Sincerely,
a concerned citizen
p.s. Go wipe your dad's pearl necklace off your check -- you look pathetic. And the ASPCA called again about the gerbils, so you might want to stop shoving them up there.
(I know, I know -- Do Not Feed the Trolls -- but I just can't fucking help it sometimes. And if that sick shit was actually meant to be funny, well, you seriously missed the mark, chucklenuts.)
How the heck is he going to reboot the campaign AGAIN? What's left to do? The only way I can see him rebooting anything is by firing his entire staff, dumping Palin, getting Joementum for his running mate and then switching parties and running as a Democrat. THAT might work.
McCain has positioned himself as well as he can:
* In favor of the bailout
* Opposed to the bailout
* Taking credit for its passage
* Taking credit for its failure
* Encouraging the mob fury against Obama
* Discouraging the mob fury against Obama (being a voice of reason)
McCain can later point to whichever of these prove to be popular positions, and quietly not mention the ones that aren't so popular.
A man for all seasons!
@GaMeS - totally agree with you; statements such as "..will probably be assassintade" are just plain idiotic and not wanted here. I visit Nate's site at least a half dozen times a day and I enjoy the number crunching, analysis, Nate's perspective on the election and the intelligent comments from fellow readers. For those who just wish to air their racist and/or right-wing hate, please visit the Fox news blog instead - you're always welcome there!
This is all well and good. But we should really trying to figure out how McCain is going to change his campaign next week and the two times the week after that.
"really BE" Argh. I'm tired.
Pyre said...
"A man for all seasons!"
I wouldn't be surprised if there are six (or more) seasons in McLameBrain's head, but in the REAL world, there are at most four seasons. VBG
You've got to love how drudge is nothing more than a mouth piece for the McCain campaign. And to think, months ago people thought he actually liked Obama!
McCain's Mob Is Out of Control
Obama should call for the removal of Steve Schmidt and Rick Davis for running a hateful campaign, so if McCain does do it it will look like he is giving in to Obama.
I think the only reason Drudge (seemingly) supported Obama in the spring is because he thought Clinton would get damaged in the primary, but still be able to pull it out. He probably thought that a nasty Dem primary MIGHT produce an Obama win, but also a damaged Obama if he squeaked out a win. Either way (damaged Clinton OR damaged Obama), Drudge thought it would be a win-win for the McCain campaign.
Same thing with Lush Rimbaugh's 'Operation Chaos' - damage the Dem candidate, then he (Lush) would be able to have an influence on the Republican ticket.
Problem for the R's is that the long Dem primary didn't damage the winning candidate. Rather it toughened him up, got a lot of the possibly damaging chaff (Rezko, Ayres, Wright) the R's might have been able to use to effect out of the way before the general election campaign began, and allowed for more time to work out any kinks in the GOTV effort.
gaylthacan...
i get your point and it definitely has merit...
my tongue-in-cheek response is that mccain has made it abundantly clear that he KNOWS how to capture bin laden. although he's been trying to blackmail the electorate with this knowledge, he just might--given his desperation--unveil it prior to nov. 4. :-)
my rational response is two-fold:
1) grouping effect: just as obama has gotten a generic democratic bump from a shift toward economic issues even though he hasn't actually done anything to deserve it, so too would mccain get a generic republican bump given a shift toward foreign policy/terrorism issues even though he didn't capture/kill bin laden personally. let's be fair about that.
2) indirect effect: the capture/killing of bin laden would allow bush (and by proxy mccain) to say, "a-ha! you see, we were right all along! our strategy was correct!" the people would be dancing in the streets celebrating our return to pre-patriot act freedoms (j/k), and bush/mccain would be able to take credit for it. i'm pretty sure this classifies as much-needed "good publicity" for bush, and, thanks to obama's deft linking of bush to mccain, good publicity for mccain.
Durring the past few days I had noticed the Drudge emphasis on positive poll movements for McCain while ignoring the negative ones. Additionally, the Palin Troopergate report story was not on Drudge for a while after it was on all the other sites. As a regular Drudge reader I am disappointed by this, it really feels that what had been a neutral content sight at least for this election has shifted and is attempting to report news in a light more favorable to McCain, if your going to report on poll changes don't ignore the ones that don't go the way you don't want.
In additional of being ugly(literally), Drudge, so has been reported, suffers of inferiority complex, because as it turns out, he has a very small penis.......
There is a correlation with people having inferiority complex and voting republican.
I can't see McCain doing a complete 180. He still needs the socialy conservative base vote.
Besides why choose when you can have both? He makes an appeal for calm, and tones down his add's a bit, while insisting that they were all true, he just doesn't want a riot.
Meanwhile the 527's keep up the "good work".
Right now McCain's polsters must have told him that he is loosing not only the fiscal conservatives, but just about anybody who values a sound economy. If he is to push the reset button, it will have to solve that.
Nobody is likely to believe that McCain is mutating into a financial genius, but their is an aproach that might work. He could get together a team of economists and He (and Palin) could promise to follow their lead.
It wouldn't surprise me if this is also Obama's plan. There are good reasons for not detailing his plans or who will cary them out. It just gives McCain a chance to find more material for negative atacks.
However Obama has those 1/2 hour advertising slots. Time enough to introduce his Economy team, and too late for McCain to dig into their pasts for guilt by association.
early voting could top 30 %. The pollsters are having a hard time fixing this into their models. I don't know if exit polls are conducted on early voting, I don't think any are. So here are some thoughts:
All pollsters should include "allready voted" but at the same time must purge the data for not being allowed to do advanced exit polling. If this is done correctly and if democracts early voters outnumber GOPs, we will see an illogical rise in GOP voting intentions in the final polls. A way to measure transition from likely voter to acquired voter could be done by comparing polling trends for States that have different early voting windows. Not easy however. Nate ?
West Virginia looks good in light pink, though I do prefer blue.
Like the graphic. I think it would also be fun as a "Desperate Stuntometer" Likert scale, like the factcheck for politicfact. For example, "suspending" campaign might be rated as "Extremely Panicked" while avoiding Letterman might be lower.
I note that Drudge is currently using the headline "Ready For Come Back?" under a picture of McCain.
The answer to any question in a newspaper/news-site headline is invariably, "No". Try it as you read news stories. Otherwise the headline would be "Ready For Come Back!".
We Need a President who gets it Right the First Time.
Does not sound like he has political momentum to pull a stunt like this. He will come off even more erratic. Strong article in today’s Washington post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/12/AR2008101202333.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR
Nate.
Your "Win Percentage" Pacman has eaten just about as much red off the map as it can stuff in. It is clearly rolling itself into a blue ball ready for hibernation.
Time to find a nice dry box and fill it with straw. There it can hibernate till 2010.
I know we are all hoping for a completly red free map, but there is no reason to despare. The "Electoral Vote" Pacman is still hungry.
Another RCP sleight of hand?
Is it me or does RCP move polls less favorable to Obama from previous days to the most recent date? Has anyone else spotted this?
Obama +2 in North Dakota http://www.in-forum.com/
Is this poll any good?
Politico's Mike Allen, who has scoped out quite a few "scoops" or "exclusives" during this campaign, especially on the Republican side, is saying that McCain is set to offer a new economic agenda before Wednesday and is going to be unveiling a stump speech highly critical of Capitol Hill Democrats, in effect arguing that swing voters should vote for divided government---that total Democratic control will mean the high tax bogeyman runs rampant, while he'll reel in the perceived "excesses" of a Reid/Pelosi Congress.
While I don't think it'll work, it makes much more sense than pursuing the guilt by association tack that the right-wing extremists want him to pursue. This is just another example of how McCain has no real message. Watch for the possibility that his longtime speechwriter and confidante Mark Salter will wind up being McCain's main strategist in the closing weeks rather than Davis or Schmidt.
This and the John Lewis post are just too much paranoid speculation.
It's going to be OK. McCain doesn't have enough time — or a way — to disprove his erratic reputation.
On the economy, people are afraid for their jobs and their homes, and in times like that they want a Democrat, one of which had a decent track record in the last depression.
Kristol's wish list is never going to happen anyway. Full media access? He's making a sarcastic point, I'd like to think, showing just how painted into a corner the McCain campaign is: he's citing things they could never do this late in the campaign but things they should have been in a position to do had they run a better campaign and not picked a bozo for a running mate.
I have noticed something in the past week or so at the McCain/Palin rallies.
When you play the political game of addition by subtraction, the only people you add are the complete kooks. This is especially true in a poor economy.
One credit to John McCain. At least he winces when the racism or false accusations fly. Palin doesn't have a clue what she is reading and is so insular in her thinking that she thinks the world thinks like the lady in MN ("Arab'), the clown in FL ("terrorist") or the pathetic a-hole in OH ("treason").
All they have done is reduce their hard core ranks to the paranoid kooks and racists the GOP reluctantly calls "the base".
Sad thing is that McCain is assured 45% of the vote.
RCP is cooking the numbers again.
from 7.3 the average went down to 7.1 after including the latest ABC/WPO poll and the questionable zogby/reuters tracker.
RCP also changed the gallup number overnight from +7 for Obama to +5.5.
NATE -
From BBC this morning
'Beyond the pale'
Meanwhile Mr McCain's team said he would change tack after a series of personal attacks on his opponent, and the candidate himself called for a "respectful" campaign.
Over the weekend, the Republican candidate became embroiled in a war of words with racial undertones after clashing with a civil rights icon.
John McCain at a rally in Iowa on 11 Oct
John McCain has tried to cool supporters resentment of Mr Obama
John Lewis accused Mr McCain's campaign of "sowing hatred" against his opponent and said he was reminded of 1960s segregationist George Wallace.
Mr McCain, who recently said Mr Lewis was one of his most admired Americans, called the reference "beyond the pale".
Mr McCain has also tried to cool his supporters' resentment of Mr Obama, for which he won praise from his opponent.
In Minnesota on Friday, Mr McCain defended Mr Obama after some at the town hall meeting labelled him a "terrorist", "an Arab", a "traitor" and a candidate who inspired fear.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7666847.stm
McCain new Monday "reset" speech:
"Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 22 days to go. We're six points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them
-from Halperin
morning !
McCain abandons plan for new tax cuts
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14508.html
Jackie Calmes of the New York Times was first to break the news, writing,
"Despite signals that Senator John McCain would have new prescriptions for
the economic crisis after a weekend of meetings, his campaign said Sunday
that Mr. McCain, the Republican presidential nominee, would not have any
more proposals this week..."
Obama to give major policy speech unveiling economic rescue plan for the middle class
dkusa27 said...
Obama +2 in North Dakota http://www.in-forum.com/
Is this poll any good?
wtf is that ??
RASMUSSEN MONDAY: OBAMA 50%, MCCAIN 45%
Nate: I'm curious why you assume so little erosion in the national polls between now and election day.
Anne Kornblut in Wapo points this out:
At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points.
So why isn't this level of erosion possible?
Obama down 1 from yesterday
will McCain come back & save us ?
Tax cut baby !
In the ABC news/Wapo poll the one piece of good news that I see for McCain is that he's reclaimed ground on the question of who is more honest and trustworthy, nearly matching Obama on that question after trailing by 11 points three weeks ago.
So his strategy of insisting he's honest and that Obama's a liar seems to have been working. This is a reasonable foundation for a change in strategy.
But I'm also wondering if Kristol is trying to make this happen by planting the story in various outlets.
maybe obama should relocate some staff from minnesota and wisconsin back to dakota
mccain on 9-11 (this morning):
Asked by the host whether he agreed with Barack Obama that "the Iraq war had nothing to do with the terrorist attacks of 9/11," McCain replied:
"No. We invaded a country that every intelligence agency said was developing weapons of mass destruction. Think of Saddam Hussein in power with oil at 100 dollars a barrel, and all that entails with his commitment which when after he was captured, he stated categorically that he would acquire weapons of mass destruction, and he would use them wherever he could. Now, Iraq--"
"But he had nothing to do with 9/11," the hosted interjected.
"He had a lot to do with invading his neighbor Kuwait, and we had to go to war and fight there," McCain replied. "He had a lot to do with using weapons of mass destruction, he used them previously, so there's no doubt about his commitment to get them."
leamaria:
"So why isn't this level of erosion possible?"
Um - dear - that election had someone named Ross Perot (who had 20% of the vote).
There is no major 3rd party candidate now to grab a large share of undecided voters, dear. They are breaking for Obama.
You really shouldn;t try to compare apples to oranges.
one big wrinkle in this--ABC will report it's own poll and talk about it so the idea that Rass will get top billing when an ABC/Post has Obama up by 10 with LV and 13 with RV. Not likely.
Another important point---when every newspaper has stories about the circular firing circle of blame in your campaign that becomes the story. Anything McCain does will be framed in the context of disarray and confusion within his camp. Those stories are the last thing a campaign wants.
And now McCain will try to convince people to vote for him because the democrats in Congress? That is the lamest process appeal you can have in the midst of a crisis. That too will tank.
There is NO comeback for McCain, the numbers will tighten but not because he is coming back but because these things happen.
Reset, indeed. McCain is about to be thrown under the proverbial, cliched bus--by the lunatic fringe of his own party. That is, the fringe that sees the ticket as a Palin/McCain ticket.
Nice knowin' ya, John. Too little, too late on the "respect reboot".
THIS is Nate's best analysis to date. Nice job!
McCain is going to do something, and becoming the old McCain is all he can do. This might make the BO down to 290-320 if it goes perfect, and maybe that is the best shot they have.
LAT said...
There is NO comeback for McCain, the numbers will tighten but not because he is coming back but because these things happen.
You know LAT, I am beginning to doubt that the race will tighten, either in the polls or in the actual vote. I really believe that the McCain/Palin campaign has done itself irreparable harm.
But I love your comment about the “Circular firing squad”… HA HA HA
This will get closer as the MSM wants it to get closer. Ignoring Palin's abuse of power is completely transparent.
WE need to keep up the ground game!
thanks Aussie! I hope you are right, the thing is that too mny people read noise in the trackers as if it means anything. There is no real trend, it goes up and down a bit (like at the beginning of last week people were concerned because Obama lost a really good day, now with Rass they are at it again spinning this as movement towards MCcain). Obama has been over 50 for 2 weeks now? That is pretty stable and that is all we need.
But I do hope like you that the vote is 6 or so on Nov 5th!
Also, weekend polling is screwy, lets not get too excited by any tightening until mid-week at the earliest.
fred said...
WE need to keep up the ground game!
AND the legal eagles - like you -need to do their stuff... and I have a feeling that your legal expertise will be FAR more significant that what many people are giving credit for.
for those of you interested--Krugman gets Nobel in Econ.
Interesting article on RCP today:
Debunking the Bradley Effect: Why if there ever WAS a Bradley effect, it's not in play in the 2008 Election:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/the_bradley_effect_selective_m.html
Krugman was just ridiculed by on Morning Joe by Scarborough and Cramer. Apperently they don't anything or one that comes from the NY Times.
Gee's give the guy a little credit--that is quite an accomplishment.
I have to agree with SQ. That was a great graphic. I've just cut it out of my computer screen and stuck it on the wall- it was that good.
Can someone explain to me why RCP has Gallup as +5 for Obama when the site itself has it at +7?
Ca plus ca change, ca plus c'est la meme chose.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Unless McCain is firing his campaign manager, W's man, this only a change of the curtains in the forward smoking lounge of the Titanic.
Barack Canvases in Holland, Ohio(pictures)
Link
OMG! The man who started the Obama is a Muslim rumor and alot of these internet lies is crazy!!!
McCain and Palin are quoting a crazy man!
"He is a law school graduate, but his admission to the Illinois bar was blocked in the 1970s after a psychiatric finding of “moderately severe character defect manifested by well-documented ideation with a paranoid flavor and a grandiose character.” "
READ THIS ARTICLE!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/us/politics/13martin.html?_r=1&scp=6&sq=obama&st=cse&oref=slogin
nam vet joe from jersey said...
Can someone explain to me why RCP has Gallup as +5 for Obama when the site itself has it at +7?
RCP is correcting polls
;-)
Kristol suggests as part of this reset that McCain/Palin "provide total media accessibility on their campaign planes and buses." Do that with Palin? The one who just had a telephone press conference with Alaskan reporters that went like this (excerpted, here is the full article in print and audio for context):
Palin: Well, I’m very very pleased to be cleared of any legal wrongdoing … any hint of any kind of unethical activity there. Very pleased to be cleared of any of that. [more talk, then first question from ADN reporter]
ADN: Governor, finding No.1 on the report was that you abused your power by violating state law. Do you think you did anything wrong at all in this Troopergate case?
Palin: Not at all and I’ll tell you, [... some justifications, see article for full text ...] So no, not having done anything wrong, and again very much appreciating being cleared of any legal wrongdoing or unethical activity at all.
ADN: Have you read the whole report? (No response; Stapleton invites question from KTVA reporter). [Apparently Palin could only hear one reporter at a time as each in turn was given access to the conference call]
--------------
How would Sarah Palin ever survive a real interview where reporters are allowed followup questions?
Martin is part of the lunatic fringe; the article talks about his anti-Semitic ravings as well.
He's probably just upset about not having been part of the SS.
Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll - Mon Oct 13, 2008
Obama 52 , McCain 40
hahahahahahahah
LOL R.Joe, that explains it.
The very fact of an attempted reset will be (a) welcomed by some McCain supporters but not by all; (b) expected by Obama and nominally welcomed, but (c) taken as proof of McCain's erratic behavior and poor decision-making.
Any evidence of a stepped up RNC negative ad campaign forcusing on character, or of 527 activity doing the same, will be taken by the media as proof that this McCain move is just a head-fake.
There have been too many McCains this electoin cycle, and he's going to find it very difficult to reestablish his credibility.
Finally, if he's not resetting his tax policies or his health policies or his social security policies he remains extremely vulnerable when arguing policy.
Lets all quit going to Drudge. He is becoming as bad as the freerepublic site.
JUST SAY NO TO DRUDGE!
Go to www.huffingtonpost.com, never to Drudge!
I haven't been to Drudge in a year. Its like going to Gingrich for news on hill democrats.
Congrats to Paul Krugman for winning the Nobel. I was shocked.
RCP is using the likely voter data that gallup now lists. I will give them credit they are averaging the two models they list, one their standard one and one with higher youth and AA turnout.
They always use likely voter numbers when possible but they did not make any note of the change and just tried to make it look like McCain gained.
Also i`m sure the media won`t mention that Gallup is now a likely voter model and try to spin how close the election is.
On CNN this morning thay showed an 8 point differnce in their poll of polls and then referred to the race as a nailbiter.
Just wait until nov 5th and Obama wins over 300 EV.
champion88 said...
National Security/Terrorism should be the # 1 issue people should be basing their decisions on.
It amazes me that people value the economy over security.
-------------------------------------
I guess that we can keep borrowing from China to pay for our security.
It all works together, moran.
You have repeated some RWTP's this morning that are flatly wrong. Why don't you learn to think for yourself?
It's hard to see how McCain can plausibly "reboot" his campaign at this point.
First of all, he's stuck with Palin. People may believe that McCain's many years of "experience" (during which he doesn't appear to have learned a bloody thing) qualify him to be Commander in Chief, but they get nervous at the idea of Spunky Sarah getting her finger on the trigger for nuclear weapons. McCain can't get rid of her, since for every vote it might gain from independents, it would lose one or more from his True-Believer base.
(And even if ditching Palin would be a good move politically, it's probably not practical legal or financially. Out of curiosity, I'd be interested in any comments from those who know as to what steps would be necessary/possible to change the VP nominee only 3 weeks before the election, after most ballots have already been printed and a whole lot of people have already voted.)
Second, life doesn't have a "rewind" button. I'm convinced that some of the recent momentum in the polls has been driven by the stark contrast between calm no-drama Obama and pugnacious, erratic McCain. If McCain mounts a different, more effective campaign from here on in, he may gain back some of the war-hero respect that he once enjoyed, but he won't be able to erase from people's memories the genuinely erratic behavior of his campaign so far.
(Btw, can anybody explain why the Obama campaign's description of McCain as "erratic" has been condemned by many as a code word for "old"? Imho, erratic behavior is far more typical of adolescents. And McCain seems like the oldest spoiled-brat teenager on the planet.)
Mandy
Technicly Palin could be replaced - even after Nov 4.
I agree that it is probably too late politicaly, athough one can dream.
Approx. 8:07AM, the rcp intrade went to 24.0 for Obama, Weird, huh??
The Washington Post article talks about McCain's first campaign. The article says he believed his Navy experience was worth more than political experience.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/12/AR2008101202306.html?hpid=topnews
GWU Battleground tracking poll:
O: 51
M: 43
No change from Friday.
I'm sure it's been said already but at this point any reboot, any big change is going to be seen as erratic. It's going to reenforce Obama's narrative and dig a deeper hole for McCain. Is he the nice guy? Is he the hard right conservative? Is he the maverick? Is he a centrist? Is he the negative attack dog? Is he the issues guy? People maybe fine with electing any one of those types of politicians but they're not fine electing one that doesn't know who he is.
Looks like a very plausible plan by Kristol & Co.
Why no hypothetical "odds of bin laden video resurfacing a week before the election"?
Now THAT, my friends, will be a game changer; non?
I mean, I know it's unlikely, because bin laden would love to have another, well, you know.....in the White House, right? ;-)
It's too much like firing your lawyer with one witness left to go in a murder trial you're losing.
Yeah, Davis/Schmidt haven't helped much so far. But bringing a new team on board three weeks before the election? It will take them a couple of weeks just to find out where they keep the xerox paper.
Go ahead. I guess it can't hurt.
GW/Battleground Tracking
Obama 51, McCain 43
hahahahhahahah
Joel, I looked at those numbers and they had Obama +6 -- I still don't get how they got to +5 -- but like you say it probably won't mean a thing in Nov.
why is ppp Colorado poll not counted in rcp average
October 13, 2008 4:19 AM
DKUSA27 said...
Obama +2 in North Dakota http://www.in-forum.com/
Is this poll any good?
The answer is YES. (nice find!) Nate has it in the charts on the right side under North Dakota as Obama plus 2. :)
Hopefully that North Dakota result will attract some other pollsters to verify the results. Then maybe North Dakota can get bluer in the model.
I can see the Obama campaign's ad right now: Several clips of McCain saying different things, then the question: Will the real John McCain please stand up? Would go over really well with us old codgers who remember the game show. (And old codgers are an important demographic in this election, though why anyone would entrust their social security to John McCain is a mystery for the ages.)
Bamboozled No More
I doubt seriously there will be major reboot of the McCain campaign in the offing.
The campaign will continue on three footings: (1) opposition to tax increases, (2) Obama as unknown and risky and (3) voter backlash against racial politics.
This last will be the most potent in the closing weeks as voters react to the habitual playing of the race card whenever the electoral discourse turns to a topic that is uncomfortable to Senator Obama. Skeptical white people along with people of other ethnicities resent being labeled as racist simply because they may oppose Senator Obama and his policies, even if they are only considering that opposition.
No less a liberal and party stalwart as Gerry Ferraro said there was going to be a backlash against the message that "if you are White and tell the truth, you are racist”.
This may indeed swell the ranks of those lining up with McCain on November 4, especially b/c Obama has condoned the racism and has failed to give concrete reasons why his brand of "change" is actually a good thing for America.
The American people will not be cowered into silence by the hooligan tactics of Obama, Lewis, Sharpton, Farrakhan, Wright and Jackson. To many they are all part of seamless racially divisive line of thought that is radical and dangerous and must be resisted for good of the nation.
We will not be bamboozled.
John McCain: Someone must stand up for the People!
Now that we've seen forward copy from his "We've got them right where we want them" stump speech to be unveiled today, I doubt a "reboot" as described previously we happen.
McCain may be taking a more issue-based approach on the stump in the final weeks and backing off some of the negativity, but it doesn't appear that he will do something as severe as firing anyone or stopping the negative ads on TV.
Up early today Peter! What time did they call you with today's talking points.
No white hooligans in your list---should have thrown Ayers in as a token.
A McCain reboot will be played by Obama as another erratic move.
Yay! Pete's here!
I haven't had a good dose of right-wing idiocy in the past 20 minutes. Good timing! =)
Nate, why the change in win percentages with no new polling? Did you make further changes to the model and do a new run?
Not 'reboot' is going to work unless he fires Palin. That idiotic stunt has pushed away more middle of the road voters than it has gained from the far right. Kristol is delusional if he thinks anything less will really shake up the campaign.
The thing is, firing Palin could be a great move. During Wed's debate he says that he's going to run a clean administration and that though he disagrees with the committee's report, he won't have someone on his ticket with a serious question about their honesty and the way they would use the power of the office of VP. He's come across as honest and get rid of that mill stone.
Nate,
Very clever lead to your click on graphs. And I third the request for a face next to each level. Of the "Home Alone" shocked kid face variety.
Opps... I meant "No reboot..."
@peckerheadkent
Are you Clark Kent's brother, Loserman?
I have a message for you (adult only):
Shut Your Face
new thread
Only problem with a reboot is the debate Wed night. McCain wears his emotions all over himself and he is incapable of disguising his anger and his disdain for Obama. For him to come out as a happy warrior now is just not within his capabilities.
If he wanted to at least salvage his reputation he could say something about how difficult the coming year is going to be, that it is important for us to find common ground and pull together. But I don't think he can do that either.
I've always been a firm believer in watching how people run campaigns and this is just really bad. McCain doesn't seem to understand that this is a Presidential campaign, not a Nintendo game where you can just press "reset" whenever you'd like. For a campaign that has been run by so called proteges of Rove they sure as hell have been inconsistent and unclear when it comes to message. Drudge can try to spin this all he wants but it's clear that the McCain campaign is in free fall. Reinventing yourself 23 days before the election is NOT GOOD.
John McCain: Someone must stand up for the purity of our bodily fluids!
Schmidt on NPR this morning pushing the Ayers story..... Perhaps he didn't get the message, but I think this shows that the above isn't so likely.
A reboot like the one Nate described won't work. It's too easy to counter. If McCain pursues the strategy that Nate suggests all the Obama campaign and its supporters have to do is point out that the time for McCain to reject the race-baiting tactics of his advisers was before he'd gotten himself into this position not after.
It's not honorable to stop unfairly trashing your opponent ex post facto. It's honorable to prevent it from ever happening in the first place.
In addition, Obama can draw direct parallels to the Iraq war by pointing out that this is exactly analogous to lacking the judgment not to invade in the first place, but then supporting the surge once the fateful decision has already been made.
I'm reassured by the fact that any picture I can form of this "reboot" scenario is the very definition of erratic behavior.
Of course Drudge is pushing the closer polls and the McCain reboot, he's always been more GOP-friendly.
This sounds more like an old boot than a reboot. McCain abandoned the very strategy that Kristol now recommends just a few months ago. Remember, he was running an undisciplined campaign and making gaffs left and right and needed to be reined in? The problem now isn't that he's off message, its that he has no message.
Could it still work? Possibly, especially if McCain starts peddling the "buyer's remorse" idea that started to show up in the Dem primaries. But I doubt it.
Very odd. Rasmussen has O51/M45 on the front page, but O50/M45 inside the story if you follow the link. Looks like RCP just picking the one it likes better. WTF with the discrepancy?
Kurt said...
McCain doesn't seem to understand that this is a Presidential campaign, not a Nintendo game where you can just press "reset" whenever you'd like.
This is assuming he's heard of this "Nintendo" thing. =)
The McCain campaign can come up with any of a variety of ingenious "reboot" strategies to gain ground, but it all boils down to one thing:
McCain has to pull it off. Not the McCain campaign, but McCain.
They've already tried a barrage of attack ads, Sarah Palin, the Ride on the White Steed Back to Washington for the bailout negotations, the town hall debate.
To use a baseball metaphor, you can have the perfect manager who always makes optimal decisions, but it's the team on the field that wins and loses. The manager can't do anything about his star player making errors and bouncing into double plays.
Sarah already started the ball rolling in her Orwellian Double-Speak presser this weekend.
"John McCain and I have taken the High Road and we will continue to maintain our position on the High Road."
You called it, Nate!
REBOOT!
(or rather they are calling it "hitting the reset button")
However, I didn't see in this article where McCain is planning on giving up the negative attacks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081013/pl_politico/14513
It's not honorable to stop unfairly trashing your opponent ex post facto
Not just ex post facto, but ex post facto after it failed to give him ground. If it had worked, he'd still be doing it.
Plays right into Obama's theme of McCain being erratic in times of crisis. Economy tanking? Pull a campaign stunt. Campaign tanking? Throw it out and start over.
Obama should ask people what would happen if McCain were president, and he had to handle a crisis, and things weren't going well................would he fire his whole staff to try to fix it?
Erratic.
Perfect.
McCain put a Rove protégé and a top lobbyist in charge of his campaign, his ads went 100% negative, his campaign has essentially called Obama a terrorist sympathizer which has led to racist epithets at his and Palin's rallies, and now, 3 weeks before the election we're supposed to believe he had an epiphany? That he suddenly realized this wasn't who he really was?
As a computer scientist I find the notion of McCain rebooting his campaign hilarious.
A reboot works if something in RAM or a tmp system file got corrupted or the OS got locked up because a program tried to write where it shouldn't.
The McCain campaign is like a windows system run by an amateur. Windows is slow and clunky and very sensitive to change. Since it is run by amateurs and it is Windows, it is full of viruses, backdoors, trojans, worms, and rootkits. A reboot just won't fix all of that. What is needed is a reformat and reinstall. That takes time McCain doesn't have and since the disk analogy really is the soul of the campaign it is not something easily cleaned out.
For reference, Obama's campaign is something like OSX or better yet Linux. It is sleek, fast, and runs extremely smooth, and just looks good.
And what about that wistful column by Fred Hiatt in today's Washington Post. Is he in on the move too, speculating what a high-road McCain campaign might look like?
doesn't make any sense, anyway.
Would you people listen to yourselves?
So, McCain starts climbing in the polls. AFTER all his negative campaigning. Then he says he needs to reboot, and become Mr. Honor. Because he's gaining in the polls????
So, to recap: higher polls = reboot?
There is no way there's a big shakeup before the debate. Obama would destroy McCain during the debate for being erratic and prone to stunts. "You can't shut down the presidency when something bad is happening, you can't fire everyone every few weeks when there's a problem". He'd quote McCain's "steady hand on the plough" line from the last debate a dozen times and McCain would probably snap and attack before he was done. It just won't work.
McCain could still do a soft reboot and start that before the debate. He could make some key shifts and say that that he is refocussing on what America needs. America First. Etc. Cur out the negative ads. DO lots of ads with middle class people talking about their problems and support for McCain fixing those problems. He could really create a rolling restart where he talks a good game over the next 3 days, cancels the negative ads, refocuses his campaign on people. Over the next week, start having living room meetings with a dozen people who haven't drank the kool aid in swing states, with a couple cameramen, of course. Show him connecting with people, making it look like he's really about average Americans. it can reinforce the out-of-touch, elitist, celebrity stuff he's already put out about Obama, but he can do that by connecting with people which doesn't look like a stunt.
It would get him a couple of points back in the polls. Then he could refine some of his policy stuff over the next week "to reflect the current economic conditions". Make things a little more sane/friendly for working class folks. At the same time he could reorganize his campaign, as long as he's not on the ropes anymore, and he is still making positive moves while that is happening, no one will care.
They'd have to refocus Palin on something she is good at. I don't know what that is, but there's got to be something. And it would have to be fairly low key. She's already fired up the base and otherwise her attacks aren't working.
A rolling reboot won't get as much splash as a sudden one will, but it won't make McCain an instant target, would undercut some of the criticism of McCain, and would give the media something to talk about for a longer time. But he has to start now. Starting after the debate is too late. He's got to use the debate to convince people that he's paying attention and that he deserves an extension so that he can earn their votes. He's got to talk about working for the next 3 weeks to connect with them and earn it.
That "steady hand at the tiller" has been making an awful lot of erratic, hard tacks.
I mean seriously, McCain can't even run a campaign, how could he possibly run the government?
Hillary Clinton Predicts 'Very Big Win'
Link
Now Drudge has the good market news in the left hand column Dow up/Gas Prices down sitting right next to a picture of John McCain pointing in a "there I told you I'd fix this" pose.
Pretty effective visual marketing. I am wondering why Obama continues to spend for ads on their site.
e.
Diageo/Hotline
Obama/Biden 48%
McCain/Palin 42%
Undec 6%
no change from yesterday
Hilary Clinton says Obama is closing the deal
Link
I like hitting the hyperspace button as the computer metaphor here.
McCain can not re-invent the campaign without removing Palin. She is a red meat candidate, and nothing will change that. Hell, she ran her campaign for mayor of Wasilla on abortion, gay rights, and gun control. She loves these wedge issues- she's not going to abandon her attack game for a "kinder, gentler" McCain.
This strategy is a bluff, meant to get Obama to let his guard down before the last debate. Our talking about it means that the strategy is already working.
4 of 6 of the daily national tracking polls today show a significant uptick for McCain in the last few days:
Gallup:
Obama goes from his peak of +11 4 days ago to +7, for a McCain gain of 4 (and the race is closer if we switch from RVs to LVs).
Hotline:
From an Obama peak +10 just 2 days ago to Obama +6 today, for another McCain pickup of 4.
Zogby:
From an Obama peak +6 yesterday, to Obama +4 today, for a McCain gain of 2.
Rasmussen:
From an Obama peak of +8 a week ago, to Obama +6 yesterday, to Obama +5 today, for a total McCain gain of 3.
The 2 remaining daily national trackers are:
1) Daily Kos and
2) Battleground.
1) Daily Kos skews toward Obama, and this is generally recognized (See, e.g., Pollster.com at http://www.pollster.com/blogs/tracking_poll_house_effects.php )
2) Battleground is flat; Obama remains at +8. However, 3/4 of the Battleground poll was taken from last Tuesday through Thursday, before the bulk of the McCain uptick reflected in the 4 trackers above.
What say you now, Nate?
Is this real movement, or are you still claiming it's just statistical noise?
"So, to recap: higher polls = reboot?"
What gain in the polls? Nationally he is polling the same as he was a week ago. Electorally, he is so far behind that even a cynical move like cleaning up his filth seems like a workable solution.
Hi there,
Thought I'd add my two bits.
Drudge and Halperin (MH hearts MD) maybe trying to start something up, and the McCain campaign may want them to, but in my estimation it ain't going to work. McCain is looked at with complete skepticism by the middle of the road, undecided, late-to-decide voter. The histrionics, complete absence of any policy that might help said voter, the hate mongering - and one little response to a completely clued out woman doesn't change this really - these are what Mr. and Ms. Undecided are aware of. And let's just not start on That Woman (you know who I mean). She is starting a collective gag reflex among all but the fringiest (who show up with a little stuffed monkey - is that guy pathetic?).
I find myself chuckling about McCain as a gambling man. No wonder he sticks to games entirely based on chance. He has been telegraphing his moves like a yokel. Can't anyone let him know that you don't say your going to whup someone as it sets the bar intolerably high?
I've had my chicken little moments but I don't think McCain can turn this thing without an assist from Obama and so I am pretty relaxed. If anything we might be witnessing the eclipse of Drudge - yeehaw!
McCain speech:
“We cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: waiting for our luck to change.”
Mentions his plans for the economy…acknowledges he trails by 6% in the national polls….avoids personal attacks on Obama.
Obama camp responds: Says McCain “decided that it was more important to give a new political speech about where he is in the polls” than talk about the economy.
Jim Cramer: Obama tax plan won't hurt economy
Mad Money host scoffs at idea 'Obama panic' is causing crisis
According to CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer, there is no "Obama fear" hurting the markets, and his plans to tax those making over $250,000 won't hurt the economy.
Link
WTF ?
According to the Realclearpolitics.com average of national polls Obama is at 50%. This is the magic number. If all the undecided voters go for McCain, Obama still wins the election. Of course this will not happen and Obama will get a portion of these votes.
RJ
The economy is driven by the middle class. The middle class does not make $250k+, despite what McCain thinks.
Yeah, Drudge has lost a lot of credibility with the lead up to the election. He's reported on Zogby fluctuations as 'tightening,' only to have the numbers widen during the week (which he doesn't subsequently report).
And why not put up Palin's troopergate story? The rest of the time, he attempts to align foreign powers behind Obama, including Fidel Castro, in an attempt to speak to Americans sense of exceptionalism as in, "don't tell me who to vote for rest of world, dagnabit!"
Drudge is a Repub in the bag for McCain, just like Huff Po is not an independent news gathering source.
How is this not getting more attention?
By RFK Jr:
Alaskan Independence Party's creation was inspired by the rabidly violent anti-Americanism of its founding father Joe Vogler, "I'm an Alaskan, not an American," reads a favorite Vogler quote on AIP's current website, "I've got no use for America or her damned institutions." According to Vogler AIP's central purpose was to drive Alaska's secession from the United States. Alaska, says current Chairwoman Lynette Clark, "should be an independent nation."
Vogler was murdered in 1993 during an illegal sale of plastic explosives that went bad. The prior year, he had renounced his allegiance to the United States explaining that, "The fires of hell are frozen glaciers compared to my hatred for the American government." He cursed the stars and stripes, promising, "I won't be buried under their damned flag...when Alaska is an independent nation they can bring my bones home." Palin has never denounced Vogler or his detestable anti-Americanism.
Palin's husband Todd remained an AIP member from 1995 to 2002. Sarah can be described in McCarthy-era palaver as a "fellow traveler." While retaining her Republican registration, she attended the AIP's 1994 convention where the party called for a draft constitution to secede from the United States and create an independent nation of Alaska. The McCain Campaign has reluctantly acknowledged that she also attended AIP's 2000 Convention. She apparently found the experience so inspiring that she agreed to give a keynote address at the AIP's 2006 convention and she recorded a video greeting for this year's 2008 convention. In other words, this is not something that happened when she was eight!
Whoah, what's with the pic on Drudge's homepage of Obama kissing a white woman? This is not so subtle "Harold, call me" race baiting. It has nothing to do with the story behind the link of Obama going door to door in Ohio.
Why is Drudge suddenly egging this shit on?
Because Drudge is an ass and totally in the tank for McSame.
MSNBC: Something's Happening in West Virginia (with Obama)
Link
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