In contrast to what most candidates do in the closing days of a race, Barack Obama is expanding his list of targets, making an ad buy in Arizona as well as Georgia and North Dakota:
YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio — In a bold move brimming with confidence, Democrat Barack Obama broadened his advertising campaign on Friday into two once reliably Republican states and further bedeviled rival John McCain by placing a commercial in the Republican presidential nominee's home state of Arizona.I have to say that I'm not a big fan of this from standpoint of marginal electoral strategy. A slew of recent polls in Arizona show the state close, by margins ranging from 1 to 8 points. However, this is the time of year when "close" means something very different from "functionally tied". A 3-to-5 point lead in a state, which is where the Arizona polls average out, is fairly significant at this stage of the contest. That lead still belongs to John McCain.
Obama's campaign, capitalizing on his vast financial resources and a favorable political climate, announced that it was going back up with advertising in Georgia and North Dakota, two GOP states that it had teased with ads earlier in the general election campaign but then abandoned.
And needless to say, it is hard to elucidate a scenario in which Arizona serves as some sort of tipping point state. Obama will not perform better in Arizona than in New Mexico, Nevada, or Colorado, neighboring states that have been polling anywhere from 5-20 points more strongly for him. Suppose somehow that Obama were to insult the Pittsburgh Steelers or something and lose Pennsylvania; could Arizona matter then? Not really. The Kerry states less Pennsylvania, but plus Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona total 267 electoral votes, three fewer than Obama needs for victory. Obama would also have to win something like Montana for it to matter (while losing Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina etc.). Our model thinks that the odds of this happening are something like 800,000-to-1 against.
Of course, this is probably not an ad buy framed around marginal electoral strategy; it is one framed around marginal media strategy. As Chris Cillizza notes, the tightish polls in Arizona, which the campaign can draw attention to with this maneuver, provide Obama with a good piece of evidence to argue that the national race is not particularly close. An ad buy in Arizona -- and I'd expect this to be a very small, largely symbolic ad buy -- is David Plouffe's version of a Drudge Siren.
339 comments
It's a strategic mistake and hubris imo.
YES!
firsT!
This is Sam Wyche going for an onside kick against Jerry Glanville's Oilers while up more than 50 points.
I think its fine, because McCain has earned this. It also has the strategic effect of demoralizing republicans.
Damnit, fourth!
It would be amazing if O could take AZ, but it is NOT likely to happen. Symbolism indeed.
Todays word verification: yofibed
Dang! Almost made it.
wv: bootr
This is what will cost Obama the election.
PA, VA, NV, OH, MO, NC are all going to McCain if he doesn't concentrate on them.
He's already saturating the swing states. Now, he has to bide his time, probably trying to quash any "McCain resurgence?" media event before it starts. Buying into Arizona is a way to do it. Buying into Georgia and North Dakota make it seem a little less offensive. It still may be seen as hubris to some, but c'mon, no swing voters vote on that kind of thing. There's not enough time for "electoral hubris" to become a theme -- not while Obama is staging events in swing states.
The last day, he might as well just dump it all in Utah. That's the kind of "wtf?" Hail Mary that could even bury a Whitey Tape. ;)
- Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson
Also some chance of provoking McCain into doing something rash, no?
Who makes up these word verifications anyway? They're funny
wv: defund
no kidding
Come on guys, I'm just pumped that any of the candidates or members of the media have had to say the word "Arizona" during this election cycle. I've obviously got the red-state blues...
I see this as a media buy strategy to force the McCain campaign to spend some dollars where it doesn't really matter. If the Obama campaign has cash to burn then they can afford to put some into Arizona under the pretext that they are taking advantage of recent favorable pollings. The McCain campaign panics a bit and feels that it is now forced to defend the state and put some cash into it. It might not be a whole lot of money, but it does mean that they'll have less to spend in other states that need it more. That's what this looks like to my amateur mind.
"Enormous financial advantage" enables Barack to do whatever he wants to.
Maybe Obama just wants to embarrass McCain with a home state loss. I can't blame him wanting a little extra revenge for all of McCain's dirty campaigning.
He's not doing events there, just an ad buy. What's the big deal?
It's smart. It helps downticket races (like Lord in AZ-03), it helps drive the narrative that Obama is running up the score/getting a mandate if the state comes out close, and the Tucson and Phoenix markets are relatively cheap to advertise in.
I don't think they're buying into GA, ND, and AZ thinking that these are tipping point states. I think they're doing it because they have some cash to burn and it's a powerful message to send -- we will fight for your vote anywhere.
"This is what will cost Obama the election.PA, VA, NV, OH, MO, NC are all going to McCain if he doesn't concentrate on them."
Oh please. Running an ad in Az means he's not focusing on other states? It's not like he's scheduling 3 live appearances in Arizona or anything.
I don't think there's any reason to rub McCain's nose in it. This doesn't resonate with "healing the divide" and "reaching across party lines". Obama's better than that.
Anyone have a suggestion for a new home page come 11/5?
I don`t know, it may seem like he is rubbing it in but some polls show him within 1 and he is leading with early voters.
I doubt he`ll win it but why not try to get every state you can, also Obama is looking for a mandate and not just an east coast win.
Plus at this point there is no love loss with him and McCain i`m sure he would love to beat him in his homestate.
Nate's points taken, Obama's spending in these areas do force McCain to play additional defense, and spread McCain thinner than he otherwise would. So from the perspective, it's a good move.
However, the question is, would those resoures be better spend in a true battleground state.
It's hard to say - the battleground states have been absolutely pummeled with ads thus far; couldn't you make the argument that spending ad money in some place 'fresh' would have a greater impact? I wonder.
The Arizona ad buy and the trumpeting of the polls energize the Obama base nationwide, however. There is a visceral thrill when thinking about being part of a nation-wide, historic event. Hubris? I don't think so.
The real question is why would McCain then respond by campaigning in his own state? It signals weakness, to his base and to the Obama electorate nationwide.
Well I'm doubting that this buy is really coming at the expense of anything else. And as both you and others have said, it's more of a national statement anyway.
Plus, while I don't think AZ is going to be a tipping point state, if he could nudge it into the W column in an otherwise large win, it would really put an exclamation point on his victory.
Rumor has it that McCain might be visiting AZ. If Obama tricks McCain into wasting one of his last days there, that's a win. If the spin of the last 4 days of the election is, "Will McCain lose Arizona?" that's a win. McCain is taking money away from GotV to pay for more ads and that's a win. Obama likely has the money and I doubt he's going to be ignoring the usual states, so I don't see much of a downside here.
It's not like he's taking ads out of PA to do this.
This is nothing more than pulling the media dialog away from McCain and his "surge".
I assume (and hope) that it's not pulling one iota of resources from the swing states.
It's how you avoid playing ball control offense.
yiannis: For it to be Hubris, he'd have to be trying to show off. I don't think he is. It's just a late full-court press. A late right cross by the leading boxer in the last round of a big fight. It's a statement. A big press in Texas or Alabama or Utah would be arrogance. A state in the single digits? Not at all.
I think the move is designed to piss McCain off. Maybe he'll say or do something stupid - you know, be himself.
hey nate, off topic, at least as states go, but what's the deal w/mason-dixon? i've noticed they are quite heavily favoring mcmuffin, more so than other polls, in almost every state they poll.
you've done a great job eviscerating the bad practices of idb/tipp, and i was wondering if there was something hinkey w/mason-dixon?
still, i must admit, they have a hell of a line, that mason-dixon!
People:
There are OTHER DEMS running in arizona, people.
Perhaps THEY would appreciatesome help/airtime with Obama?
Ever heard of 'coattails'?
If he thinks he can afford it - why not?
And the numbers are TRENDING TOWARDS Obama in AZ. Why not help them along?
I agree with the poster who said that the primary purpose isn't for him to carry AZ, it's for down the ballot races and to plant the seed for the 2010 and 2012 elections.
I think Obama is pretty certain he has this thing won, and he wants to be close in as many states as possible so that his governing mandate looks stronger.
The other thing the Obama AZ strategy does is to magnify McCain's poor polling numbers in the media. That could have a detrimental effect on GOP turnout nationally.
Seriously, he has a fuck load of money. You have diminishing returns just pumping huge money into the regular states, why not expand and try the odds? At the least it would give him more of a popular vote mandate.
According to local news reports, McCain will be spending Monday night in Arizona. If Obama's move made him schedule this instead of spending Monday night in PA or OH, then this move will be worth it even if Obama doesn't pull out the upset in AZ.
Damn that's hilarious Nate. Irrational exuberance. In hindsight, true words spoken by Greenspan - but not in the way he meant them.
It's the same as Bush making a phony play for NJ and Hawaii in 2004. That worked out okay for him.
There's also the GOTV impact on down-ticket races to be considered -- if Obama is getting calls from D candidates for House, asking him to take media buys, and he does, that's a chip to cash in with that Congressperson in the future.
Really - we're not sticking a finger in their eye; we're just supporting our fellow Democrats.
The Arizona buy makes sense to me. There is considerable value in the race appearing close in McCain's home state. Not only does this undermine the "race is tightening" story, but it also counters McCain's "you know what you get with me" as the people who know him best are considering voting against him.
I think it's a good play. Along with Marginal Election Strategy, you also need to consider (1) decreasing marginal returns and (2) winning media cycles.
As to (1), the tipping point states have been saturated at this point, and Obama still has money to spend. Adding one more commercial to a state that has seen 2,000 isn't going to net many more votes. Putting one on in a state that hasn't seen any could pick up some low-hanging fruit. Enough to win the state? Probably not? But padding the popular vote is a good thing, and it might aid a turnout boost that helps Bob Lord.
As to (2), this is just great. Anyone want to place a wager on whether this small ad buy becomes a point of conversation on the Sunday talk shows? Again, it may be icing on the cake at this point, but the icing is the best part of the cake!
3-to-5 points might be a lot at this stage, but Obama is up by more than that in enough states to win the election. So this is a better ad buy than putting one more commercial on the air in PA.
Doesn't this fit in with the 50-state strategy? If he has the money to do this why not do some advertising. Treat no state as pointless. It could help change things for races in 2 years, 4 years, 6 years, etc. Concentrating only on those states you are sure you will win, or only the states that "matter" is not enough.
I am all for this move as it seems to have forced McCain to defend his home state. This will possibly (we won't know until next week) solidify the national perception that McCain has lost which could then increase the likelihood of down-ballot pick-ups.
News from Indiana...
I work near the City/County Building in Indianapolis, where the early voting takes place. There've been really long lines all week, with the line out the door a few of the days (including at 8am today). Ran into an election official who said these lines are absolutely unheard of. I have a feeling these are a lot of first-time voters.
I don't see this ad buy as "hubris." I see it as insurance, and as an extension of the 50 State Strategy.
Suppose the Republicans were to win by stealing a key state that Obama supposedly had wrapped up. Wouldn't people be kicking themselves for having ignored other possible electoral pickups such as AZ, ND, MT, and GA for insurance?
Besides which, if the "battleground" states are already saturated with ads, how much good will more ads do there? Don't you reach a point of diminishing returns? Meanwhile--as was shown in the primaries--states that were long ignored or written-off can suddenly turn toward a candidate if they're shown a little attention. This is especially true for smaller states like ND and SD who are routinely ignored by both parties and/or taken for granted.
You know; I take back what I said earlier about holding an event in AZ. I'm so mad at the McCain camp's tactics and lies that I want Obama to hold a rally in Phoenix on Monday.
Ponder the following:
What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage,
including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating class?
What if McCain had only married once and Obama was a divorcee?
What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long affair while he was still married and abandoned his crippled wife who had waited steadfastly for him to return from the vietnam war?
What if Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted to pain killers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?
What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker and Obama couldn't even read from a teleprompter?
What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included discipline problems and a record of crashing several planes?
What if Obama was the one who was known to display publicly, on many occasions, a serious anger management problem?
And what about the flag pin? McCain still does not wear one, yet Obama is required to. Why is that?
There is something wrong here. There should be no question in the mind of the public as to who should run this country; but there apparently is.
And still people say "Who is Barack Obama?" Goddammit, HE'S BEEN RUNNING FOR THIS OFFICE FOR TWO YEARS! If you don't know enough about him by now, you are not paying attention or there is something more sinister at work here. I'm reluctant to go into the reasons why.
Is ND in play?
The strategy is TAUNTING.
The HUBRIS comes because Obama is asking for money from ordinary people to advertise in a state he cannot win.
It's all about narrative. This buy gets him two things:
a) People talk about him running up the score and winning, instead of McCain narrowing the race;
b) It strengthens his bona fides on having run the fifty-state strategy and aimed to appeal to voters throughout the country, which will help him play up his mandate when he's elected.
An actual campaign event in Arizona would be one thing, but just buying some airtime isn't a big deal.
Seconding sloth, this is about media strategy, and running out the clock. At this point in the game, every minute the talking heads spend talking about this, rather than whatever s*** McCain is throwing at them today, makes a difference.
Every time Obama gives them something new to talk about of HIS choosing, it runs out some more clock - and there isn't much clock left.
Obama may have spent as little as 50,000 on an ad buy. However, announcing it has gotten him more than 100 news articles nationwide and this demoralizes Republicans. This is a mind game and McCain has no credible similar response.
I think you guys are overreacting a bit. The Obama campaign has plenty of money, and throwing a little at Arizona won't hurt. I'm sure I don't need to remind you that there are a few downticket candidates and props that could benefit from Obama's coattails. This is good strategy -- let's see a few dollars in Louisiana, next.
Two points: 1) These are suppossed to be "positive" themed ads.
2) These follows the 1/2 info-mercial on Wed., which was also "positive."
These may help down-ticket, as mentioned, but may also help in the honeymoon period of an Obama administration.
The internals in Kos's AZ poll show that the Hispanic vote is similar to what we are seeing in CO and NM. That's gotta be worth something.
Also, McCain is making a campaign stop in AZ on Monday. I know that they will frame it as some kind of homecoming rally, but that's B.S. He'd rather be in PA, OH, or FL that day and catch the redeye to AZ.
Is Obama going to win AZ? I doubt it. But I bet you could get odds that would support throwing a little money at an Obama win.
I think Obama should be advertising in all states. He needs to ensure that his overall vote total is over 50 percent of the national, in order to secure a mandate.
I'm with Nate, this is purely a media attention grabber. Look at the MSM, and you will see that this got WIDE play and doesn't make McCain look good. A great way to stomp on any last minute message McCain wants to get out.
They might even demoralize a few Republican voters as a side benefit.
Really with all due respect to those commentaries, I think people are SERIOUSLY missing the point of Obama's Strategy. This is war and the point of war is crush your opponent with everything you've got and drain them of resources with mass bombardment until they can no longer fight. This is Powell Doctrine of politics.
Overwhelming force. We've supplied him with money (me personally giving him $86), I expect him to go to all means to crush John McCain. Expect for PA which his wavering (and frankly, barely), Obama has gotten almost solid support in the Kerry States and his heavily infutrating DEEP into Red State America, making the "Red State", "Blue State" stuff almost irrelevant.
Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska 2nd Congressional District, North Dakota, Montana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and now Arizona. that's FOURTEEN states and one congressional district that Obama is competitive in. The point is not necessarily to win them all (although you fight to win...if we won them all, it would push Obama above 400 EVs), it's to force John McCain to have to use his meager resources to fight in 15 different places in addition to his attempt to siphon off the one Kerry state he thinks he's got a shot in (PA).
He's got his eye on the price and it's victory through overwhelming force.
As the election gets closer, Obama is beginning to (smartly) adopt more of a tactics-based approach. His message has gotten through and reached voters.
Now, to the extent he can win media cycles, he is trying to. The commercial helped reach undecided but it also consumed a media cycle. The use of Clinton and Gore helps. This ad buy helps. It's tough for the media to label this hubris when the AZ polls look as close as PA.
As others have pointed out, I think Obama is making these buys without having to sacrifice elsewhere.
The Obama campaign does look at everything in this election in pragmatic terms, as they should. But I also think they are pragmatic supporters of Dean's idealistic 50-state strategy; they have allocated resources where they thought they could make a difference in terms of future Democratic alignment in red states, as a corollary of the larger goal of an election win and a governing mandate. Campaigning, including ad buys, in a state like AZ that shows a possible but likely incomplete shift towards Obama in these last days would indeed have a Drudge-Siren symbolic effect, but working for a win here is also a wise investment in the future of Democratic politics in AZ.
I disagree Nate. Just because this is not a good move for winning the Presidency doesn't mean it is not a good move. I'd like to see an analysis showing that there are better places for Obama to campaign to win extra seats in the house and the senate before ditching his move. Extra adds in Georgia seem very sensible in the light of the senate - it makes complete sense for Obama to campaign now for a friendly senate. How does Arizona rank on the return for investment in the house?
I'm glad to see we are all in agreement here.
Its a counting coup move meant to demoralize the opponent right before the battle. Further psychological brilliance from Plouff.
Obama buying time in AZ is certainly less bizarre than McCain doing robocalls in WA.
Obama is flush with cash and the polls show AZ pretty tight. What McCain handlers thought they could accomplish by running robocalls in WA at this point is beyond me.
On the "enormous monetary advantage" front: I heard this afternoon that the McCain campaign is planning on outspending the Obama campaign by $10 million on ad buys over the next few days (CNN? MSNBC?). Is this more along the lines of 'Our internal polling shows we're dead even in New York', they're compromising the ground game for the media blitz or none of the above?
I think this is an indirect "break their spirit" media move more than a real electoral one. The campaign has the money to spend on things like that, and just look at how much of the day's news is focusing on this. Win Arizona or not, this is like a Colin Powell endorsement. Just more good news for Obama.
They're not trying to win with this move, I don't think, so much as effectively running out the clock.
With all due respect to Nate, I think Obama has proved that he and his campaign know what the heck they are doing.
They see something, perhaps only symbolic value, in this decision.
I think they believe they have a shot and they are going for it. He has the resources to take a last minute stab at some states.
I also believe this is meant as an enthusiasm booster. It creates buzz and people respond to buzz.
But bottom, take a look at the map,it's blue in places where people said it could never be blue. Welcome to the 50-state strategy.
"Maybe Obama just wants to embarrass McCain with a home state loss. I can't blame him wanting a little extra revenge for all of McCain's dirty campaigning."
Dude, do you really think that is Obama's style? You clearly have not been following his campaign for the last 12 months. Revenge and embarrassment? Yea, right. If he campaigns there, its because it will help in some way. If it forces McCain to spend time in his home state, doesn't that seem like a more probable reason to spend some money there?
Clarification:
My previous posts have not been in favour of a rally in AZ since that might appear arrogant and have a negative effect. Bad strategy. I think I'm over it now. Turn AZ blue!
Joel's Sam Wyche reference is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
If he runs an ad in Arizona that connects the dots between McCain's attacks on "socialism" and his proposal to cut Social Security, and gets it on the news in Florida for free just because of the audacity of going into Arizona, it might pay off.
Republicans in the 1930s attacked Social Security as communist or socialist, but that mechanism to redistribute wealth from young working people to elderly retirees has proven quite popular.
"Some people have attacked my proposal to cut taxes on the working elderly and to continue to 'redistribute wealth' via programs like Social Security by calling me a 'socialist', but I promise you that I will not cut Social Security no matter how many names people call me."
OK, too many words. Works better with nasty grimacing pictures of McCain describing his plans to change Social Security juxtaposed with his attacks on 'socialism', followed by a promise to preserve Social Security.
I also need to add, sunday talking heads are running out of stuff to talk about. a story about polls tightening is a mccain narrative. a story about polling in AZ, GA, LA and ND is an obama narrative. announcing the ad buy ensures that people preparing for sunday morning poll these states to have fresh data. it counterbalances mccain's narrative and robs mccain of morale and media cycles.
I like this move. It shows Obama is thinking beyond the immediate horserace. He IS NOT diverting time or even needed resources from the big battlegrounds, but he is making a statement that John McCain does not OWN Arizona voters. It's an extention of the Dean 50 state strategy. Make a case to every voter you can afford to reach, even if you can't flip their state. It may pay dividends down the road. If the GOP nom were not a native, AZ would probably look more like NM, CO and NV this year. It will probably be a battleground in '10 and especially in '12 when Obama has no assurance that his pockets will be so deep! I say take advantage of the once in a lifetime opportunity to invest in some future goodwill in the Red states! As a UT Dem I can assure you that getting attention from a opposition party rather than written off as a no-chance can have meaning!
There is nothing wrong with running up the score. No lead is safe against the Republican hate machine.
BTW- Gallup has a new poll out. Looks like McCain has been doing the old dead cat bounce.
Poll Here
The McCain campaign is living in fantasy land. They've clearly given up. None of their strategies make sense, they make up polls and try to justify their bs, and they campaign in random states that they will never win.
Take everything the McCain campaign says with a grain of salt.
WV, Pencilveinia: Bloodletting technique used by Mcain to win this election.
They do it because they can. It demoralizes the other side, and it energizes the base in Arizona.
This will help with coat tails. If Obama is in single digits in Arizona, there has to be some leaning Republican districts that would vote for Obama, that may also give the Congressional Dem their vote too.
It's also a part of the narrative. They have the money to spend anyway.
MCCAIN WINNING 35% OF THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE IN MISSOURI!!!
"Towery acknowledged that the poll showed a closer-than-expected race among black Missourians – Obama took a lower-than-usual 65 percent of the group – and said that if African-Americans ultimately vote for Obama by the huge margin analysts expect, “it will make the race closer.”"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15117.html
so now we know what to do with this Politico/Insider advantage Missouri poll
The Blargh (12:47)has it right: it's a boost to downticket races, where it might make a difference even if Obama still loses the state.
The question is why is Obambi ignoring Alaska - a total blow-off. The guy needs some bigger balls like that mule rider chap has.
if obama attacks mccain as against social security and medicare using mccain's "social security is a disgrace" quote, he could peel off some soft seniors in AZ.
BREAKING NEWS: ARIZONA AND TEXAS ARE NOW BLUE STATES.
Remember that Obama is not just trying to win this election but create an entirely new map, which he appears to have done already.
Some predict that with demographic trends continuing, Arizona and Texas will be solidly Democratic states within two election cycles.
This spending also benefits congressional, state and local races.
And remember -- Barack and Company, along with Howard Dean, always had a 50 state strategy.
Obama running ads in AZ is less crazy than McCain holding a rally in Springfield, ILLINOIS this weekend! What is the thinking there?
I agree with The Blargh. If Obama is fairly certain of victory, then it makes sense to use all that money of his and to try and build a larger majority in Congress and the Senate. If buying ads in Arizona will help downticket races, then this is smart.
TIme is precious, and Obama shouldn't waste time to fly all the way over to Arizona. I know his aides said they aren't worried about PA, but I would schedule a few more rallies there before election day, because losing that state would hurt Obama's chances. He can afford to lose a few "Red" states that are in play, but he can't afford to lose a "blue state", especially a big Blue state.
I would hit Ohio and Virginia again. Chuck Todd said this morning that Obama's aides are more confident about FLorida, than Ohio, depsite the difference in polls in the 2 states. Funny, I have lived in Florida most of my life, and I don't feel confident at all about his chances in Florida. It seems Florida is a tease again. Close enough to make the Democratic Candidate think he has a chance, and invest a lot of time and money, only to have their heart broken again in the end. I think Ohio is the same way to an extent. I wouldn't ignore the other important states to concentrate too heavily on Florida in the next few days.
This isn't about winning AZ, its about the boat load of free media it will generate over the weekend. Every talking head in America will be saying that McCain is on the defensive and the "tightening" narrative will be discarded in favor of the "expanding" narravite.
It seems to me that McCain already knows he's going to lose the electoral college, so he's just trying to keep his popular vote from being a total joke.
Or he's just batshit crazy.
Obama has a big pile of money, and he's bought about as much time as he can buy in the battlegrounds. He's spent all kinds of time in PA, OH, IN, VA, NC, and FL.
So, if he's got the dough, why not buy in AZ, and maybe make a campaign speech in Tucson and another in Phoenix? I understand that he's going to campaign in Nevada anyway.
Also, the demonstration of confidence there just might depress Republican turnout in some closer races. On the way back to Chicago, he could make another swing through Missouri, and then Indiana. He has an airplane. This doesn't take all that much time.
The ad buy isn't a signal without knowing what the ad content will be. If he avoids attacking McCain, and instead makes it one of his positive, hope, inspiring kind of ads, he could do himself and the rest of the ticket a lot of good.
He could be providing coattails and good vibes, a full-court-press with a positive message.
WV: HORNIOT: horny + idiot as in "My stupid boyfriend doesn't understand that I won't sleep with him if he forgets my birthday, that horniot.
He should be pumping money into GA, KY and MS to try to get to 60 Senators via a coat tail effect.
60 Senators is WAY more helpful than AZ's EVs.
El Angelo said...
I agree with the poster who said that the primary purpose isn't for him to carry AZ, it's for down the ballot races and to plant the seed for the 2010 and 2012 elections
you are right on!
I think the AZ buy is more just for publicity sake. A $100K ad buy there probably buys 10X that in free media because of the buzz it creates. In that sense, it's worth it regardless of the tactical strategy.
I don't think he can win Arizona, nor do I think Obama thinks he can win it. It's psychological warfare.
A 3-5 point lead at this point in the campaign may be real, but there's reason to suspect any undecideds in Arizona might break overwhelmingly towards Obama: after all, Arizonans know McCain the best of anyone, so anyone who's undecided at this point is probably inclined against him.
It's also interesting that the polls are in the 3-5 range at this point in the game when he hasn't put any ad buys or campaign stops into Arizona. This may not be the same as a case like, say, Georgia where he's down that much after putting so much effort in and where there's little chance that things will break differently in the last couple days. Sometimes just showing up may be enough.
It costs money, but Obama has money. It costs campaign time, but he's already been carpetbombing the swing states. And it would certainly be demoralizing to McCain supporters to see even Arizona slipping away in the waning days of the race.
Hey, if McCain can campaign tooth and nail in a state where he's down by 10, Obama can run a few ads in a state where he's down by less than 5.
And I think this is more of a morale move than electoral strategy. Obama wants to avoid complacency in the troops. Listing a few new targets helps keep everyone fired up.
"TIme is precious, and Obama shouldn't waste time to fly all the way over to Arizona."
He's not. His campaign is buying ad time in Arizona. Big difference.
I read somewhere it would be a positive ad, not an anti-Mc attack.
Personally, I'd like to see him buy some ads in the (very cheap) market of Alaska.
But perhaps I'm just being mean.
WV: Ovrati, as in, "is it ovrati yet?"
After additional thought, maybe this AZ ad buy is totally psychological in nature. Perhaps Obama making a play for AZ is designed to add to the despondency of the GOP voters to tray and keep them home. This probably wouldn’t have too much of an effect (if any) on the national election, but could help some of the local elections?
Nate, this might be about "50 states" thinking. Trying to give help to Democrats down-ticket. Ultimately any incumbents that result could help him in a re-election bid in 4 years. If not over the next 4 years. If he's got the cash then let it ride on the longshot and take ground while it's there for the taking.
Why does running up the score happen in college football? Because there is a larger BCS standings game outside of the single 60-minute game.
WV: "letsm" indeed
And by the way, since when is it somehow "out of bounds" to campaign ANYWHERE? As for rubbing McCain's face in it, I don't recall the Republicans being too worried about rubbing Gore's face in it when they won Tennessee in 2000.
This is an election campaign, not afternoon high tea.
Gotta disagree with Nate on this one. By all accounts, Obama's campaign basically has more money than any campaign in history. This would be a bad move if it sacrificed something more crucial to victory, but that isn't really the case. I don't thing buying one more ad in PA or VA is going to change many minds, whereas buying ad time in McCain's home state is a huge slap in the face which, combined with recent polls out of the state, are likely to make the media run stories along the lines of "McCain's campaign in serious trouble".
At this point, I think that would be a much bigger help to Obama than yet another 30-second spot in a swing state that has already been blasted to the point of saturation. As others have said, the last thing Obama needs is a last-minute attempt by the media to trumpet an epic comeback from McCain.
I actually agree. I'd much rather kick Suxby and McConnell to the curb than win in an electoral landslide.
The other tracker that showed a possible post-commercial bump was the DailyKos poll, which gives day by day figures.
It showed Obama +8 yesterday, up from +5 the day before.
Let's see if there is an ABC bump in 3 hours.
The Laurence Eagleburger comment about Palin not yet qualified is getting big play on cable today.
I think this is probably a smart move. It
forces McCain to spend money, which he
doesn't have a lot of and Obama does, in
a state that should have been a slam dunk and
its his home state too boot.
Think this shows how much the McCain camp
is in trouble.
I'm guessing the buy has little to do with Obama and much to do with Bob Lord and Jim Martin. A voter who is pushed to the polls for Obama is likely to vote for the down-ticket counterpart.
My word: Derco [n.] An early nineties emo-style hair cut.
Trying to flip AZ is just Obama's style of rubbing McCain's nose in it for all the negative smear-sleaze that McCain has said about him. Rather than dish it right back at McCain, he's going to hit him where it really hurts. McCain's ego. . .to even have to defend his own state is embarassing and probably sends smoke out of his ears far more than direct attacks against McCain. I'm all for it. Even if McCain wins AZ, he had to fight for it. HA HA HA!
I'm with Kos. Winning isn't enough. A new and lasting electoral map is in order.
This isn't about winning AZ, its about the boat load of free media it will generate over the weekend. Every talking head in America will be saying that McCain is on the defensive and the "tightening" narrative will be discarded in favor of the "expanding" narravite.
BINGO! Great point!
alybaba said...
"This is what will cost Obama the election. PA, VA, NV, OH, MO, NC are all going to McCain if he doesn't concentrate on them."
Ridiculous concern troll.
yiannis said...
"The HUBRIS comes because Obama is asking for money from ordinary people to advertise in a state he cannot win."
Come on. This isn't a "strategic mistake" at all. He isn't pulling out of other states. He isn't going to pile a ton of money in. What he is doing is eating up some news time. And, second, giving a reason for democrats to go to the polls in Arizona--for down ballot races. This is a smart and cheap move.
I like the AZ ad buy. He's been blitzing battleground states so much that additional ads probably have a diminishing value. However, an ad or two in AZ might nudge some voters in the right direction and with heavy turnout put an exclamation point on this whole thing.
MCCAIN WINNING 35% OF THE AFRICAN-AMERICAN VOTE IN MISSOURI!!!
"Towery acknowledged that the poll showed a closer-than-expected race among black Missourians – Obama took a lower-than-usual 65 percent of the group – and said that if African-Americans ultimately vote for Obama by the huge margin analysts expect, “it will make the race closer.”"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15117.html
so now we know what to do with this Politico/Insider advantage Missouri poll
I reckon Obama's playing Brewster's Millions. So much money that he can't spend it in the traditional ways - hence why so much is in GOTV, then that national 30min buy, now this. It will not impact in the slgihtest on money spent in the major swing states, so why not?
There's another reason for the new Obama ad buys - it is not unusual for all ad-buy times to have been bought up in key states, particularly in prime-time, so putting this money in PA or FL or other logical places might just not be possible.
(getridie - someone you hire to go through your junk and figures out what should be tossed
This move can't hurt Obama. It can only help him.
Let's see with 4 days left it increase his chances to expand the map.
I've been saying since Obama won NC in primaries that Georgia was in play. If Obama doesn't pull off Georia it will be close.
He should go to Georgia before he leaves for the west coast.
It could be the difference between calling the race at 8:00 p.m. est instead of 10 or 11.
Senator Obama please go to Georgia this weekend.
wv = recids
i noticed that mcain could tie the electoral college if he picks off PA, OH FL, NC, MO and then Maine gives him the one electoral vote he has been shooting for...yet your simulator gives this a 0 percent chance...why? seems plausible
thanks
Demographically speaking, Arizona will be trending more democratic. Obama may simply be sowing the seeds for 2012 and beyond. I just wish he had started 6 months ago.
Another bunch of state polls from ARG...
Arizona
M: 50
O: 46
Colorado
O: 52
M: 45
Missouri
O: 48
M: 48
Montana
M: 49
O: 46
New Hampshire
O: 56
M: 41
Numbers look surprisingly reasonable for this outfit.
Nate,
You may have to toss out the model. I was just on the road, and Rush Limbaugh is saying the McCain is going to win based on "his gut" telling him so. The evidence?
Obama is speaking in Des Moines today.
This doesn't mean much. Obama has probably saturated the airwaves in the battle ground states to the point where spending more money is useless. Kerry faced the same issue in 2004 the last weekend of the election. He was criticized for not spending more money in OH and PA the last weekend, but there was no TV spots available unless he wanted to buy cartoon network time.
I love it. It's (old) Cornhuskers style running up the numbers.
Feels great!
If McCain is going to keep going around talking about his ridiculous internal poll numbers and how close this really is, then why not? Make him work for it. Make him spend his money. Make him respect the voice of people all over the country that are saying that they want new leadership and change.
WV: mankymut - a really dirty and flea-infested dog
Obama's strategy goes beyond winning. His strategy is about leading the country. Advertising in states moving toward him may not win the EV's of that state but it may up his popular vote %. A big win will make it easier for Obama to establish himself as the guy with the gravitas.
wv: mallo -- Hawaiian for "No Drama Obama"
I think maybe the Obama campaign is looking beyond election night, knowing that a victory is likely and that in any case the money they spend in the other states won't do much in an already-saturated area. But if they can turn out some of those folks who think, "the states in the bag for the other party, I'm not going to bother" in those states that they aren't likely to win, the overall popular vote will be higher, and the support for Obama will seem that much more unequivocal coming out of election night.
Overall, it wouldn't be the best use of money if their funds were limited, but since they have a plush account, it seems like a smart strategy looking to the future interpretations of election night. Especially, it might be added, with the potential for all manner of legal challenges looming in key states.
Another theory: he could be advertising in AZ to reach parts of CO and NV. I'm curious to see where the AZ buys are concentrated. Obama's done this before in Chicago to reach parts of Michigan and Indiana.
Since McCain is now forced to spend limited finances in his home state, this seems like a good move by Obama. The point is not to win the state, but force McCain to a costly defense.
Its about winning the news cycle and making the narative about Obama challenging on McCains home turf... actually winning Arizona isn't really the issue.
This is a tactic of overwhelming force: Take it to McCain's base, and he now needs to spread his scarce resource there as well.
Are you kidding me? Obama has been called...a socialist, a terriorist, baby-killer, muslim and god knows what else and some people are worried about advertising in AZ?
And the concern troll who wrote this..
"This is what will cost Obama the election.PA, VA, NV, OH, MO, NC are all going to McCain if he doesn't concentrate on them."
Why don't you check out Obama's schedule through Monday before suggesting that he is "ignoring" these states..he has events in Ohio, Indiana and Virginia that I know of prior to Tuesday!
I like it. The 50 state strategy makes the whole Ohio/Pennsylvania/Florida love affair less annoying. We get McCain ads in the San Francisco market. Why can't Obama campaign in Arizona?
Bring. It. On.
" Rush Limbaugh is saying the McCain is going to win based on "his gut" telling him so. The evidence? Obama is speaking in Des Moines today."
LOL looks like Rush is hittin the happy pills again. Obama has a better chance of winning Arkansas than McCain has of winning Iowa.
McCain is being forced to visit Arizona on Monday:
http://www.dcourier.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&subsectionID=1&articleID=60787
I'd call that a big win.
Another theory: he could be advertising in AZ to reach parts of CO and NV. I'm curious to see where the AZ buys are concentrated. Obama's done this before in Chicago to reach parts of Michigan and Indiana.
I could be wrong but I seem to recall this coming up before and someone stated* that the media markets don't overlap there because the population centres are generally a long way apart
*high quality source hey?
If Obama only wins the AA vote in any swing state with a chunk of AAs 65-35%, that state is lost, and so probably is the election. It's possible that in some states, he'll get less than 90% of the AA vote, but 65% is absurd.
Rush's gut talking to him was just the foot long meatball sub he had at lunch repeating on him.
House Minority Leader Boehner accuses the DOJ of contributing to Obama campaign and having a pro-O bias.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1008/Boehner_bashes_Justice_Dept_for_not_doing_enough_on_voter_fraud.html
McCain isn't being "forced" to visit Az on Monday by this ad buy. It's his home state. He needs to end up there for election day.
"Trying to flip AZ is just Obama's style of rubbing McCain's nose in it for all the negative smear-sleaze that McCain has said about him."
Kirby, you clearly know nothing about Obama's style.
I agree with Eve - this isn't even about the election results, much less the media narrative; it's about being America's president, red states as well as blue, and avoiding the Half-Of-America's President situation Clinton and Bush were always in. It's about none of us without all of us. It's about getting over this faux-polite bullshit of having two Americas that are not neighbours, do not speak to each other about their differences, and think denigrating each other makes you more patriotic.
Looks like it worked, McCain is going to be in AZ monday night (via Talk Left)
Hypothetical for November 5th to 10th. Rush and Cindy go on Oxycotin bender together.
Nate, Your point about AZ is well put. But I think the story in GA is different. You ( or maybe it was Sean) have made the case on this site that GA maybe much closer than the polls suggest if the voter turnouts move in the direction we expect. Just look at the early voting result coming out of GA. Personally I think that not only is Obama well-advised to buy ads in GA, he should swing through.
Faux has already called the election for McGrampa.
I am surprised Nate doesn't understand what is going on. It is not just about winning the election.
Obama needs to run up the popular and electoral vote as high as he can for a few reasons:
1. To counteract any vote suppression and fraud. If he works just to get 270 or even 290, he could lose.
2. He wants a clear mandate for his policies and proposals going into office. A landslide electoral count and especially a high popular vote will help him out in his first few years. He will have big business and whatever remnant is left of the republican party to deal with.
Don't forget that many dems in the house and senate are owned by corporate America as much as most republicans are. If he really does want to push through changes that the status quo opposes, it will be much easier to do this with a strong and clear mandate from the people.
Even if he doesn't win AZ, if he can pick up 2-3% more voters that will translate to a lot down the road.
The same holds true for MT, ND, SD, and GA.
I agree with Nate, I don't like this move. These states are irrelevant to the race right now. If anything he runs the risk that voters could think he's being overconfident or arrogant. It would be better to just hammer away at Florida or Missouri.
Obama's ad in Arizona is not an attack ad on McCain, but a positive message ad in response to McCain's negative robocalls and attacks in that state.
"Zelbinian said...
McCain is being forced to visit Arizona on Monday:"
He probably has some yard work to do. Maybe make a safeway run before the long winter -- stock up on Pork and Beans!!
I think it's pretty clear at this point that Obama will win the popular vote, and the EVs. The real question is, will the electronic machines reflect that vote accurately? How can the vote-flipping that has been going on this week in WV, TX, CO, TN be explained (all of it from Dem to Repub) if not that the machines have been rigged in some way?
My own theory is that the software has been set up so that the default position for cast ballots is the straight Republican ticket. That way, if the machine misreads a selection because of faulty calibration, bad synchronization, power surge, whatever... it will revert to straight Republican vote. In this way, the thugs who run these voting machine companies have been able to guarantee that the one percent (approx.) of misread votes will result in a net gain of one percent for the Repugs.
I'm not an IT person by any means. Does this theory make sense?
With a strong latino GOTV, AZ is fair game. There have been a few 1 or 2 point polls recently.
guejeo - a politician spurned by latinos in his home state
rwd- You can end up at your home state for election day without doing an event there the night before. Obama has an event on 11/3 in Northern Virginia.
WV: shicr- the newest product by Mennen
Give McCain a break - he's having his rally in his home state of Monday.
Obama is doing the same thing after all - only his is on Tuesday...
(calioc - what the breakaway state of Orange Co CA would be called)
I love this. The marginal utility of another ad in OH, PA, CO, or VA has to be very, very low given the saturation. But, an ad in AZ can get the pundits' attention and shape the narrative that McCain is so hopelessly behind that Obama is trying to win AZ. If everyone thinks it is going to be a blowout, demoralized McCain voters will outnumber complacent Obama voters in not voting. And, he just might win AZ and worst case, helps his popular vote numbers. The bigger the victory electorally and vote margin, the bigger the mandate Obama will have to govern.
I'm with the folks call this brilliant.
First of all, this is media GOLD. How can the race be "tightening" if McCain has to play defense in his home state? This storyline will last through the weekend, if not until Tuesday. One good way to check on this is that Fox has not a word about it on their blog.
McCain's resources are already stretched thin. He's had to basically give up on his ground game to run more ads. Why not force him to spread things even thinner?
This isn't running up the score or even about winning AZ--it's about a full sprint to the finish line.
And as for hubris in spending "ordinary people's money" on this, I gave him some money, and if he's spending it on this, great!
Obama's buy in AZ is all about narrative and will be small.
1)There have been multiple polls mentioned that AZ is within the MOE
2)Everybody has moved it to a McCain lean.
3)McCain is visiting his home state the day before the election instead of a swing state.
4)The final cherry on the narrative that McCain is in trouble everywhere is the Obama buy! It makes it seems that McCain is not trying to win but not be embarrassed by being a sitting official to lose their home state.
Guarantee this is on all the national news, great narrative for Obama, demoralizing to Repubs that they are just holding on to not be embarrassed.
>> Another theory: he could be advertising in AZ to reach parts of CO and NV. I'm curious to see where the AZ buys are concentrated. Obama's done this before in Chicago to reach parts of Michigan and Indiana.
Interesting idea David. What is there for cross-border TV based in AZ that would do that?
I disagree with Nate on this one, and I also think many of you posting here on this subject are underestimating the Dem's campaign here in Arizona. I'm pretty sure there are no illusions about Obama winning in AZ (although the polls ARE now close, Dems appear to be leading in early voting and there are TONS of independents in the state). The purpose is to help state candidates win more seats and continue to push the trend (Arizona IS turning blue with demographics). There is a clear chance of Dems winning not just one but 2 congressional seats, which would put the Dems in a majority. Then, in 2 years they have a good chance of getting at least one of the Senate seats (Napolitano?)
In addition, Phoenix is now the 5th largest city in the US with an increasing Democratic population, so if the campaign has the dough why not put some here too???
I don't think this is anything strategic, but rather could be due to the fact that Obama has more money than places to put it. There are still lots of ads in New Mexico, he just ran a 3.5-5 million dollar infomercial, I think he is just swimming in enough money that he is putting it everywhere he has a chance to.
Every Obama dollar spent in Georgia is a dollar that goes toward kicking Chambliss to the curb
Lived in the St. Louis area for 40 years. 35% is absurd. Period.
Dammit! There are citizens of the United States living in AZ. They have just as much right to be represented by Obama as by McCain.
Trying to win a winnable state is a winning strategy from a winner.
Being from AZ. I find this very exciting. Do I think Obama can win here? Most likely not. But considering that the electorate here is something like 39(R) 33(D) 28(I), with Independents showing the largest growth and Dems in second, and that there is a large latino population, I don't think investing a little bit in AZ is a bad idea.
If Obama is advertising in AZ, it is concentrated in Tucson and Phoenix.
Conventional Logic Alert: in politics, if a well-known candidate from the incumbent party is at or below fifty in the last five days and his challenger is within the margin of error, that state is going to the challenger.
That can extend to about ten states Bush won in 2004 at this point. Look to the red states where McCain is leading, but below 50 and Obama is within the margin of error.
WV: sneep...sneezing while in REM mode.
If Georgia ends up 32% AA vote and Obama wins 94% to 5% we're at 30.1% Obama and 1.6% McCain. Then we've got the other 68%. Let's say McCain wins that group 67% to 28%. 49.1% Obama to 47.2% McCain, with 3.7% to Barr and others. Possible, yes!
Breaking news McCain campaign says they are outspending Obama in the last days before the election and dead even in Iowa:
As Mr. Davis spun it out in the conference call, McCain campaign polls show a “dead even’’ race in Iowa as well as competitive positions with Mr. Obama in battleground states. Mr. Davis also asserted that the McCain campaign would outspend Mr. Obama on television by $10 million in the final days of the race.
“The fact that we have enough resources to punch our message through in the final days of this campaign indicates to us a great potential to be able to compete in the air against Obama in a way we have not been able to do since this campaign started,’’ Mr. Davis said.
Am I dreaming or in the wrong movie??
I'd like to know when it became a bad thing to broadcast political adverts during an election campaign. Even positive, policy based adverts.
Maybe Obama should have struck a deal with the networks so that they just showed 30 mins of dead air in the "non-winnable states" the other night.
Research 2000 AK Senate Race:
Begich: 58
Stevens: 36
Today is the last day of early voting in Georgia.
My wife reported to me that the lines at one of the major polling stations in Atlanta (in an overwheming Obama area) is currently more than half a mile long.
Obama doing buy in AZ---in the immortal words of John McCain---"Politics ain't bean bags".
President O is just buying air time in AZ. Rearview mirror ad, I believe. Makes good sense. It would only be hubris if he acturally campaigned there.
Here is what Obama is doing.
He wants to win the popular vote by a huge majority. This will show to many that a large number of people believe in him. It will give him some serious political capital to bring about some serious momentum to carry the large changes in energy, health care and international diplomacy he will be pushing for.
The larger the popular vote, the more it looks like the entire Nation is behind him.
Georgia 2004, check it out. My numbers are very reasonable above.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/GA/P/00/epolls.0.html
AZ popular centers of Tucson and Phoenix don't reach into other states. Flagstaff reaches into NM alittle maybe.
To me, the AZ gambit is strategic rather than electoral, with the goal being angering McCain into some sort of Brer Rabbit moment where his legendary temper either bursts into the open or at least becomes more obviously in his forced facial expressions and sarcastic tone.
That said, I strongly agree with the post about Georgia and the fact that there are more important coattails (the vile Chambliss) there than in AZ.
That's why I donated still more money yesterday!
Can you elucidate a scenario in which Drudge will learn how to use Dreamweaver?
Dead even in IA when RCP has it O+11.
Um, yeah.
More desperate spin.
BTW, matt, those ARG #s are tilted Repub by about 3 or 4%. Obama functionally tied or ahead in all.
McCain was always planning al ast minute push. He knows the Obama camp is great at counterpunching. If you get in the last punch before the bell, no chance to counter. They've saved resources to spend at the last minute. That said, the better campaign always wins. OBama's run the better campaign and will win.
Indeed wald0095, lines in Georgia right now are up to NINE hours in some places.
You don't ignore the Dems in AZ just because it's McCain's homestate. This idea that it's a violation of some sort of gentlemen's rules that it's the opponents home state and you're dishonoring him is ridiculous. That idea assumes that the Dems who happen to live there don't matter, which is more dishonorable, IMO.
If it makes sense strategically, and it's not motivated purely out of a sense of humiliating the opponent, then that's what matters. And, if it helps shore up the next Congress in any way whatsoever, all the better.
The McCain pollster on MSNBC is a great spin meister.
"Can you elucidate a scenario in which Drudge will learn how to use Dreamweaver?"
You don't need that bloated program that produces ugly code to make a pretty web page. You just have to have an IQ north of 80. :)
It will be very interesting to see how close this goes on election day. McCain is not very popular in Arizona. His "no earmarks" has meant he has brought nothing to the state. The home foreclosures in the Phoenix area are growing and people are worried. Although it is unlikely Obama will win the state, his positive ads will help other Democrats.
winniechili said...
Indeed wald0095, lines in Georgia right now are up to NINE hours in some places.
October 31, 2008 1:31 PM "
There is something wrong when lines are this long. What a sham.
I think they key takeaway from Davis' message is that they are "functionally tied" in the battlegrounds.
Sure, I can believe that. I mean, it all depends on how you want to assume turnout happens. If you assume a massive R turnout and a weak D turnout, which has been their assumption all along, you can get to "functionally tied."
So what's the big deal?
He's got the money to do whatever is necessary to get votes.
It's not like he's taking resources from battleground states to invest in possible tipping point states.
Like Jon Stewart said last night, he's like Brewsters Millions. He's got to spend it all before Tuesday!
P.S. Luuuuvvvv Jon Stewart
wv = priann = Ann prying?
Obama will win. It won't be close.
That's the reality. All Obama need do at this point is stay on offense. This is staying on offense.
Gallup
O 51
M 43
Gap rises to 9, even in the traditional model! W00t!
Shrum was on Morning Joe and said that Scarborough was "poll fishing" all morning. Scarborough got all upset b/c he was called out on him trying to spin the McCain narrarive of tightening.
There is something wrong when lines are this long. What a sham.
Definitely. On MSNBC a few hours ago they said they were trying to find out what could possibly be causing it, whether it's broken machines or CRAZY turnout. Haven't heard anything yet.
I agree with some earlier posts (notably David, Oct. 31, 1:21 pm) about the value to a future Obama administration of going into office with as much of an appearance of a mandate as possible. Under the assumption he is already doing all he can to win the election by spending in swing states, it makes sense to direct any extra resources into other states where it can help him in either the electoral vote margin OR the popular vote margin. The less close the result is, the more easily Obama can argue that the country is not divided and is eager to have him govern from a cooperative center. It is also crucial that the margin of victory exclude any possible sense among disgruntled Republicans that the election results could have been rigged or manipulated. Even if the electoral numbers are close, a decisive popular vote win will have real political consequences.
The Obama campaign people have shown excellent judgment so far and I don't think they've abandoned that.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/10/31/palin/index.html
Wait so its anti free speech if you criticize negativity? So the media challenges free speech by being critical of a politician- wouldn't it be anti free speech to suggest that criticism hurts speech?
Speaking of speech-
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/31/chambliss-the-other-folks_n_139725.html
In case it wasn't obvious Chambliss was perhaps the worst person in the world....
May I be the 68th person to say it's all about GOTV for House races? Now, and in the future.
There was a good article in The New Yorker a few months back about how the Dems can take back The West.
This is one of the steps, take back the South West.
In my opinion, there are two reasons for this:
1) Blunt the Republicans attempts to claim a tightening race in the closing days. IT HAS BEEN CLEAR THAT HAS BEEN THEIR HOPE THIS ENTIRE WEEK SO YOU CAN'T JUST YIELD THE FLOOR ON THAT DISCUSSION. That talking point can NOT be discussed now without at least mentioning Obama's forays into Arizona (and in doing so inviting mention of GA and ND).
2) Potentially assist some down-ticket races and get the vote out there.
Besides, it plays off the fact that McCain started running radio ads there. In a way, it is simply following their oft-stated plan to respond to anything McCain throws their way. And McCain running horrid radio ads and robocalls in Arizona qualifies.
I say good for them. It doesn't mean they don't have their eye on the ball or anything. They clearly have been focused most intently on where the race really matters.
I haven't seen anyone else mention that the ad buy and the accompanying huge media attention is also reportedly bringing in a lot of new volunteers into the AZ offices. Even if they don't win the state this election for Obama, that's a lot of extra names and phone numbers on his list for 2010/2012, a core of people who will be energized if AZ comes even remotely close, and who can be called on in future.
Football analogy: Even if your intent is to run it up the middle, putting in wide receivers spreads out the D. Make McCain robocall his own state and demoralize the republican base...
Leading Repubs in GA are aware of the long line problem.
Their solution? End early voting.
Seriously, that is what some of them are proposing after this election.
(ashes - I am convinced that Nate can adjust the level of difficulty and fun in the choices)
There's another thing I want to say here about Obama campaigning in Arizona: this is NOT the first time the Obama campaign is running ads here, and by the way, I have seen A WHOLE LOT more Obama ads on TV than McCain's. Despite the odds being still in McCain's favor here, AZ Democrats are definitely energized for this final stretch and will bump up GOTV in Phoenix and Tucson. So, NO BAD STRATEGY here...Obama has been running a formidable campaign for the White House and beyond!
I mean why would Obama try and embarras McCain by trying to win Arizona.
Obama is not petty, he's strategic and he's trying to win this election.
Let's say he was being petty, trying to win Arizona is not nearly as petty as McCain's attack ads, smears and lies.
samule,
I saw the same thing about outspending Obama in the last week. I also saw the article about how they're pulling money out of their ground game to do it. Which makes sense, for this campaign. It plays out like this...
"We're getting destroyed in early voting in some very important states, we need huge turnout numbers on 11/4, what should we do?"
"I got it! You know all that money we put aside for our GOTV effort? Lets take all of that money, and put it into advertising!!!"
"But what about the GOTV?"
"Who cares! If we spend the money on commercials, I can spend all day on the 4th working on my book about what a joke this campaign has been!"
"That doesn't even make sense, where's the connection?"
"Sorry, what? I was on the phone with my editor."
Obama is trying to be president of ALL the people. That means he's giong to have to clean up the psychological mess the McCain / Palin campaign mas made. He's starting some of the repair work now, in AZ.
WV: wingi
Maybe part of the plan is for Obama to expand his mandate with a higher popular vote. Of course it's important for him to protect his chance of winning, but in his situation it's not the only question. Granted, Georgia and Kentucky are more important than Arizona for this purpose because they have contested Senate races.
Like a lot of commenters here, Obama's move makes sense in terms of Republican morale: it's telling them that they are not safe anywhere with an Obama victory.
At this point, no one expects McCain to win. His best move right now is to reach some kind of moral victory -- say win a Kerry state so no one can accuse him of being unable to do more not even hold what Bush won 4 years ago. (That's the reason why Palin is going "rogue" right now -- she wants cover so she can claim that she could have done better than her grumpy old partner.) Winning PA could save him from that.
But this raid into AZ forces McCain back on defense, right at the moment he badly to go on offense. He knows things will only get worse for him if he loses his home state -- or wins it by only a few points.
Geoff
Polls may be skewed towards McCain, people from AZ not willing to admit they voted for the wrong senator, now they've realy gotten to know him, (may be known as the McCain effect in the future?).
Apart from that;
The idea of an AZ win will further grow the DEM enthousiasm nationwide.
The threat of an AZ loss will demoralize GOPpers.
It may force McCain to spend money and time in AZ that he cant spend in other FL, OH VA, IN and so on.
It's a reward for AZ people that have donated O-Campaign.
It debunks the "polls are thightening" storyline.
It wins a news cycle.
It will help coattails.
It is a sound investment for 10 or 12 campaigns.
It proves O is not into real/fake America.
And so on...
So Nate, you may be right from a looking at your tipping point state list and your return on investment index, but IMO there is more then statistics that matter.
Summary; Excellent tactics! (can someone explain this to McCain?)
seriously time to downgrade InsiderAdvantage. Any pollster who shows Obama winning only 65% of the African-American vote in any state cannot be taken seriously
Lines are long everywhere. I waited 4hrs to early vote yesterday in Chicago. Cousins in FL and GA waited 5hrs.
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