Not that you haven't heard the news, but...
My predisposition is to be skeptical of the value of endorsements in presidential general elections. Endorsements generally serve as an informational shortcut for voters, and therefore their importance tends to be inversely proportional to the stature of the contest involved. When you're voting for Dog Commissioner, and you have no information about the candidates, you might well go with whomever your local paper decides to endorse. In a race like Obama-McCain, on the other hand, you already have all the information you could ever want, and probably have established a fairly strong preference for yourself.
With that said, Powell has approval ratings as high as just about any public figure in America. His endorsement was eloquent, unequivocal, and because of his role in the Bush Administration, genuinely newsworthy. Powell's endorsement might play especially well among the defense and military communities in Northern Virginia, which just so happens to be perhaps the most important swing region in the election.
And it comes at an opportune time in the news cycle, with the McCain campaign having just started to feel as though it had refound its center of gravity. Between this and Obama's $150 million fundraising haul, however, the sense of inevitability may creep in again. Contrary to some observers, I think that there is far more downside to the Republicans in resignation, fatalism and low morale than there is to the Democrats in complacency.
10.19.2008
General Powell Endorses Obama
@ 1:36 PM
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563 comments
first?
2 !!
second?
;]
This is good news at a good time. If he had given his endorsement at the DNC, it would have lost its luster fairly quick. Hopefully, it will give Obama that extra push, as pointed out, in Virginia.
Or should I say...in Unreal Virginia.
Yay. but I wish he would campaign. He said he would not
Yeah Virginia was the first state I was thinking of. Maybe Florida
Do you really think any potential voter is undecided--or is that just an easy way to shake off a poller? If you care enough to vote, you read/heard enough to decide by now. Undecideds are wmd--sound ominous but don't exist.
Prepare to be Roved Mr. Powell :(
So what? Colin Powell had his change to be great and he blew it. As a former military guy, I know that Powell was the type we combat officers despised - a careerist who spent all of his time in Washington, not out in the field leading the troops.
Thanks for letting me vent a little.
Rich
See what racist is the latest inductee.
if the election is called @ 11 ET
when will the candidates speak ??
The McCAin campaign have done some digging on this Powell guy and apparently he has never done a day's plumbing in his life. Ergo, his endorsement counts for 'zippo, nada , nothing.... '
Does anyone care about his endorsement? Who respects Colin Powell? The man who fell for "bad intelligence". He should have listened to Hans Blix. Heck, he could have come to me.
Nate,
I have to say that I've had zero respect for Powell ever since the Iraq invasion and his role in it and his equivocating, unsubstantial commentary on that and everything else since then. However, I'm not easily emotional but had tears running down my face today when he spoke of the mother at her son's grave in Arlington. What a shame the Republican party is to demonize and denigrate one's faith. What Powell said today about that would have been enough for me to say he has redeemed himself. He said that and a lot more of course and I'm sure HE is glad that Obama came along to allow him an opportunity to redeem himself in they eyes of many Americans.
The text of his endorsement is unbelievably well-reasoned and powerful. I was in awe of how he encapsulated everything I've been thinking -- from Obama's temperment to the "what's wrong with the Muslim faith" issue. It was amazing. High school English teachers all over the U.S. should be prepared to examine and dissect his endorsement as a brilliant piece of effective persuasion. Amazing.
Nate Silver cares, joseph.
Another great endorsement. It is very interesting to see so many newspapers that have endorsed the GOP candidtate in the past are now endorsing Obama. This tells you alot of about what they think about Palin and the way the McCain's lack of organization.
The Powell endorsement is also likely to be cited in many newspaper endorsements, and given conservative papers in conservative areas plenty of cover if they want to back Obama.
Mel I tend to agree with you. By now I know Obama better than I kn ow my Fiance. People who claim to be undecided are as good as McCain's
It doesn't matter if you like Powell or not, but between this and the $150 million announcement, its like being ahead by 7 in the fourth quarter and killing the clock... and then unexpectedly driving down the field for a touchdown.
Not only does this resonate with undecideds and military/ veteran populations, it has the effect of giving McCain less time to work with until the election. This will be talked about in the news for another two days or so, Obama's upcoming primetime special will do the same. McCain is running out of time to work with.
Dear idiots,
Please find a less consequential blog to post your "1st" crap. I read the comments here because I often find them as informative as the blog itself. You are contributing nothing, and you are annoying. Please go away.
Thanks.
Remember: We all know that invading Iraq was a mistake, but a lot of people still believe it was a good thing to do.
I think what Powell will do is indicate to some of Obama's softer once republican support that a switch is just fine. I doubt there are many undecideds out there for whom the key factor will be a Powell endorsement but he could end up solidifying some support.
My comments from this morning still stand . . . .
The Powell Endorsement
Left wing wackos up in arms over Powell endorsement.
Right wing wackos could care less.
Low information voters that remain up for grabs don't know who he is, but see a black man endorsing a black man.
Dog bites man.
Not a big deal for Socialist victory in November.
* * *
I actually don't think Powell is racially motivated, I think it is more of sense of pique of having been badly used by the Bush administration.
The low information voters who have not made up their minds will see this through a prism or race.
This prismatic conditioning has been brought about by the entire tenor of Obama's campaign and should surprise no one.
If anything this feels like an even bigger lead balloon. Just what the Dr. idid not order.
Even more controversially . . . .
Powell – Palin ‘12
The Republican Party has for too long been the captives of the Neo-Cons, the former foreign policy experts of the Democratic Party who moved right following the debacle of the Carter years and essentially cornered the argument on foreign policy for the Republicans, leaving the Democrats as the party of weakness and appeasement.
Iraq came and leveled the playing field and now the Democratic Party is left with the task of building an activist foreign policy at the presidential level that cannot rely on criticism as its raison d’être.
What Barack Obama clearly intends is not so clear. It will be fascinating as political science to watch his foreign policy unfold in real time, but since his viewpoint has been effectively without intellectual leadership for 30 years, it is not surprising, but to all it should be frightening. If we are about to see a shift in the world order, I wonder if the people are prepared for it. I suspect they cannot even conceive it.
With McCain, you are deceptively told you will get more of the same. McCain has an entirely different view of military engagement and economic matters that is first and foremost predicated on assuring the achievement of objectives. Bush was much more of a dice roller. McCain was out in front in terms of improved tactics and it is a tactic that has brought us to Victory.
Victory. With or without Colin Powell.
Let’s face it: Powell is a distraction from the real issue in the campaign, the one raised by a VOTER, Joe The Plumber, who questioned the bona fides of Obama’s tax policy, especially as it applies to small businesspeople. Obama blurted out:
``It's not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they've got a chance.'' Concluded Obama: ``I think when you spread the wealth around it's good for everyone.''
“Spread the Wealth Around.” Obama then followed up that beauty with a “more spending is the answer to every problem” Domestic Policy.
We finally have a real issue to talk about: Tax and Spend Liberalism vs. Fiscal Conservatism.
With that much to talk about, why talk about Powell?
The record on who Powell is and what was the basis for his accomplishments or lack thereof is not yet written. I am beginning to believe he is a politician. A brilliant one.
Powell may yet assure Obama’s election – I doubt his will be an impact that can be measured, but he will get credit for re-assuring the Nation about Obama and for this he will be further enshrined as an Iconic Figure.
If Obama fails, Powell’s balanced endorsement, that was based more on character than policy or record, can be easily minimized in the wreckage of an Obama Presidency.
Powell could then sweep in as the real “John McCain” – the military guy with dimensionality and a neutralizing demographic background, a clam, dignified man with the intellect to lead like a proper Republican.
Powell – Palin ‘12
So what? Colin Powell had his change to be great and he blew it. As a former military guy, I know that Powell was the type we combat officers despised - a careerist who spent all of his time in Washington, not out in the field leading the troops.
So you think he got his Bronze Star and Purple Heart in Washington?
People who claim to be undecided are as good as McCain's
Oh, I don't think so, undecideds will break for the winner in the end. That's not John McCain.
assmole, Nate Silver may care, but independents most likely don't, and they're the only ones that matter here.
You know if you cut and paste your incoherent, hallucinations again, Pete, I might vote for McCain.
pk, you don't have to guess his reasons, he spelt them out.
Off topic a little, but there's only one thread active at a time, so excuse me:
I have a question about the Gallup tracking poll, particularly the disparity between the likely voter model and the two registered voter models. Looking at the chart on their website, it appears that while the registered voter results are based on polling done from Oct 16 through yesterday, that the results for the likely voter models lag by two days, and are based on a previous data set than what is current for the registered voter model. Above the chart showing likely voter results, it indicates the data is from polling between Oct14 - Oct16, which would be predominantly pre-debate.
I don't see any explanation of if or why that is so. Has anyone else seen this and can you please interpret/explain it to me? Thank you.
This is GREAT NEWS!!!! For BARACK OBAMA!!!!
Did I do it right?
:-D
"I think that there is far more downside to the Republicans in resignation, fatalism and low morale than there is to the Democrats in complacency."
Nail on the head - at least I hope so . . .
Thanks!
I don't think that newspaper endorsements have that much effect, except to show the underlying lay of the field. Powell's endorsement is massive though.
Lots of reasons but the major ones. It gives an injection of energy into Obama's campaign. And it allows some indies and moderate GOPs to come out against the GOP campaign, as much as the McCain campaign.
@ps3921126
Stop being a tool. I'm a regular poster here. So, I typed "First?". Get over yourself and ignore it, or add to the discussion.
PorridgeGun said ...
"'m done with those crooked wingnut[s] over at RCP.
I'm sure I speak for the majority here when I say Nate/Sean should modify 538 to include all national polls and the correct average. Not for the today's polls updates, but like they're supposed to on RCP. I want to break the habit of visiting that site."
The problem with how RCP does the averages is that they are not transparent about when they drop off polls - they do it when they feel like it.
For instance, RCP shows an overnight swing towards McCain (Obama's lead dropping from 6.8% to 5%) because their average no longer includes two 5 day old polls showing 9% and 14% leads for Obama. Yet they include a seven week old poll for North Dakota to keep it in McCain's column (not that I think it's going to go to Obama anyway).
A proper smoothing algorithm similar to the one on this site, where weighting applied to a poll drops over time, would show swings more accurately. The difficulty of course, is in finding the correct weighting, but RCP makes no attempt to do so.
Still, RCP is useful for historical perspective. They do list most polls, even if those not included in their averages. From that, you can see there hasn't been a lead for McCain since late September.
Just don't make any conclusions based on their graphs.
Ed I disagree. People broke for the loser in the last two general elections. Early voting had Bush in the lead by huge margins. Kerry caught up in the end
While I think Powell was an accomplice in the destruction of his political career, he is still viewed as heroic. And properly so. In spite of being used and mauled by the thugs of bushco, he did reform the Army from the mess of Vietnam and made it into by any standards the most elite force in history. And his service to 41 was distinguished.
It cannot help McCain to be rebuked by the most famous general that will be picking a candidate this election, no matter what any of us think about his role in selling the Iraq war.
Rich Merritt you sound very bitter! I too was in the military. Your reasoning is BS. You and many others will start to slam Powell because he isn't carrying the party's water. The GOP is becoming more and more narrow because it is the party of hate and division. I have been a member of the GOP since 96. I have voted twice for MCcain in the primaries. I will be voting for Obama. We need to move forward to repair the damage caused by the GOP. The country is in debt and we are in 2 wars and the GOP wants more wars. They have bankrupted the country. They lack ideas that the Demos have used to grow the economy like Clinton did in the 90s. There is one America. The GOP likes to split up the country for it benefit. I am ashamed to be part of the party at this time. Obama for President is the solution.
pk,
Here's one of the main things I find reprehensible about Palin: she thinks that less than mediocre is just fine. Why bother to learn about the world? Why bother to learn about your country? Why bother to learn about other points of view? I'm just fine in my little cocoon of information that hits me over the head.
THAT is the dangerous undercurrent that she promotes.
Possibly (probably?) nothing, but you can imagine what I thought about this little nugget in the paper yesterday, particularly considering the involvement of the U.S. Attorney General in Chicago (and I could have *sworn* the article reference to the "FBI" was to the "Secret Service" in the version posted yesterday, but I'm willing to admit that may have been my imagination):
http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-10-18-0176.html
All I can say is, God bless Colin Powell for clearly saying what so many should have been saying up to now.
People broke for the loser in the last two general elections. Early voting had Bush in the lead by huge margins. Kerry caught up in the end
I'm not even sure who the loser was in 2000.
I don't think 2008 is going to resemble 2004 in the slightest.
Eh, it looks like there are only about 5-7% not in the McCain/Obama camps. Probably ~3% are going to vote third party, particularly disaffected Republicans. That leaves ~2-4% undecided. Some low info voters (1-2%) could still split either way, and then the remaining bunch (2-3%) seems to be mostly McCain leaners gradually coming home. Maybe Powell freezes those votes a little. I still like this election to wind up with Obama 51-52%, McCain 48-47%.
One remark about the tightening polls. Given the timeline and the logic of it, I think the trigger was last Monday's Wall Street rally (biggest in history). It may have given the (false) feeling that the crisis is over, or at least that it will not be a major crisis. This may have taken some soft support for Obama away, or some fence votes towards McCain.
Once people were in a less worried mindset, other smaller events of the week could have contributed as well.
New Electoral Model
Truly, why would anyone be undecided at this point? Especially when the media has made it so cool to be with Obama on so many levels and so "icky" to identify with McCain.
My new election model: In order to estimate the Bradley Effect and unmask the hidden McCain/Palin vote is to add all the undecideds to McCain. I am tempted to subtract the MOE from Obama as alternative measure of his true support at the top of his range.
One thing I know Obama is outpolling himself significantly.
Nothing less than a 5% margin will do for him.
" I often find them as informative as the blog itself."
Me too.
I learn stuff here. When the comments are good - they are very good. Some of it goes over my head but is still interesting.
I just skip past the silly stuff. It seems hard to avoid these days.
Whether this might nudge someone toward jumping the Republican ship or just reaffirm a previously made decision rests largely on whether one takes the time to actually listen to Powell's statement in full. As Sarah pointed out it's awe inspiring in its persuasiveness.
I had forgotten that politicians can speak so well (without sounding rehearsed, pompous, or school masterly).
Actually, I was similarly impressed with the 4 star general who spoke at the Denver DNC which I attended: There's real talent out there, some of it in the Forces.
Great analysis Nate - esp. that an early night could be even worse for Repub's than Dem's (thinking down-ticket here).
Here's my take on the Powell endorsement, and the current swing state scenarios:
http://1000strings.blogspot.com/2008/10/colin-powell-endorses-barack-obama.html
Basically, Obama needs just one of the following to win, McCain needs them all. (In order of likelihood for Obama):
Virginia
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
Nevada
Ohio
Missouri
Yeah, it's important. Opportune too. McCain's "socialist" "joe the plumber" 'surge' will fade away and the momentum will continue to the advantage of Obama.
Take it to the bank.
I heard that the Washington Times is going to retroactively tax all "Cut and Pasters" of their propaganda material --- back to 1/1/07. And this Cut and Paste Tax will be levied against all ages even 13 year olds. So little Pete Kent is going to have an unpaid tax lien just like Joe the Plumber.
I'm running for Dog Commissioner, where is my endorsement?
Ed I am nbot saying that this year is going to be like 2004. All I am saying is that people don't always vote for the current front runner. As for 2000, although the winner was not clear, the fact of the matter was that the tidy was turning towards Gore
My impression is that this endorsement hurts McCain more than it helps Obama. I doubt it sways any votes, but it does lead to the sense of "inevietablity" of Obama. I am also intgrgued by the McCain campaign's use of Socialist in describing an Obama presidency. It is like they are thinking, well we tried the liberal label, that didn't work, we tried the terrorist label, that didn't work and bit us back, lets try the socialist thing. It is Rovian to throw a term at Obama that is being used against the Republican President. Can I hold on for two more weeks??
Gallup's new Daily Tracking has Obama ahead 52 - 42 in Registered Voters but that drops to a 7 point lead among Likely Voters. Why? Is it because so many have already voted and are now not "likely"?
St. Louis was awesome yesterday. It was like a Woodstock or Dead show...a real homegenous mix of people behaving civilly. There was the potential for more people to show up but they had limited the space available for people to get in through the gates/detectors.
General Powell's comment on the contributions of Muslim Americans to the fabric of American society was particularly touching. But how will the Right spin it?
There aren't many important endorsements, but I would say that this is one of them.
Of course, the Republicans will brush this off ("He's only doing it because Obama is black.") But this is a very hard one to ignore. The moderate Republicans are jumping off the McCain-Palin-Bachman "socialist"-bashing hate train.
Eric
If what you say is true, then plan your Obama victory party. Nevada is an ironclad win for Obama, probably Colorado too.
Obama's talking about pie again
BHO is giving his 'sweeeeet puhtaytoe pyuh' story AGIN right now in NC
I am so tired of that story, but it must be his good ol' southern pie shop version to counter Joe the Plumber
everyone loves pie - but do NOT reach for MY sweet potato pie...
Not to Be Misunderestimated
I don’t find Palin incurious, just that she had other priorities on her mind. She is a master of energy policy and discourse. See if you can find the interview she did with CNBC's Maria Bartelromo right before she got picked. She spoke with knowledge and depth in paragraphs.
It would be a mistake to misunderestimate her.
I am in Toledo. They are sure having trouble getting rid of these McCain-Palin rally tickets. When Obama was here his tickets were gone with in 3 hours. THey have had the McCain tickets available since Wednesday and on our local news they still had 500 available. And I am hearing the McCain ticket lying that there is 8500 expected and the building only holds 6200 if you have both rooms available. Now I see the lie up close and personal seeing how they're lying about crowd sizes in Toledo and knowing their tickets aren't flying off the shelf.
Watch for Powell to land a position in Obama's cabinet . All is forgiven for the Iraq debacle and he is one of the best men available. Obama intends to name some Republicans to prove his bi-partisan nature and Powell would be a great start.
It will be interesting to watch the wing-nuts tie themselves into knots trying to disparage Powell and his thoughtful and eloquent endorsement today.
Obama '08!!
Lurker turned poster here:
Got my ballot in the mail yesterday here in Clark County, Washington. I proudly filled out my Obama and Gregoire votes, and got to vote yes on Washington's Death with Dignity initiative. Powell's endorsement is the nail in the coffin for McCain, I think.
Off topic, last night's SNL with Palin was pretty telling. Amy Poehler mocked Palin with Palin sitting at the same table, and Palin was oblivious. To quote the rap: "When I say Obama, you say Ayres! Obama! Ayers! Obama Ayers!" And Palin was singing along with the Ayers chorus.
I have been hearing this LIE since the general election that some racist McCain supporters claim its isn't race but Barack Obama that is preventing them for voting for him. If Colin Powell or Condelleza Rice would have ran they would not have any problems supporting them. Let's see how real that is or see how Colin turns into a nobody. This my friend is the GOP party.
This isn't related to Colin Powell, sorry. But, Foreign Policy magazine just published an article that would support the October surprise posting here on 538 previously regarding Osama bin Ladin influencing the 2004 election.
In short, a study in Israel found that terrorist attacks not long before an election resulted in 1.35% increase in support for right-wing parties.
Assuming that Americans are like Israelis, an Osama bin Ladin videotape would benefit McCain, but (at current polling levels) probably not enough to affect the outcome of the race. Furthermore, the 1.35% percent increase was after actual terrorist attacks, so I'd think that the emergence of a mere videotape would have less effect. On the other hand, Americans have experienced much much less terrorism than Israelis, so maybe American response would be exaggerated.
Just thought I'd share...
"My friends" I think we are in deep shit.
Nice job General Powell!
Like Nate said, endorsements aren't generally a big deal in terms of bottom line; but as endorsement go, this is a pretty big one.
Republican noise machine swiftboating of Colin Powell begins in 3 - 2 - 1...
And that's fine, let this become yet another distraction for them on which to spend their time and energy.
(And *whew* I was worried Rush Limbaugh was going to run out of things to blather on about before 4 Nov.)
On the tightening polls. Go look at Nate's super tracker graph on the right over there >. The thing to note is the way that the polls seem to swing up suddenly for Obama then dip gradually. I think the Powell endorsement and the GOTV movement and the advertising over the last few days will cause the last spike in the graph in the coming few days, lasting until the election for a 10 point win for Obama.
Now Obama has done the pie but he is in good form in Fayetteville.
Live feed of Obama at North Carolina now: http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gGg3dj
For those who think Powell isn't much of an endorsement over his UN speech have to remember that Powell admitted that he regretted making the speech. The speech HE wanted to make was far less aggressive and based on what he believed to be reliable information. It was Cheney and Rumsfeld who forced him to accept the dubious intelligence.
Yes...perhaps he should have resigned then, but he thought the could be a voice of reason in an insane administration. When he realized that that wasn't going to happen, he left.
And he was man enough to admit he was wrong.
I doubt you'll ever see that out of Bush or Cheney.
"Powell – Palin ‘12"
That's about as likely as the Giants winning the 2008 World Series.
1) Powell would choose Palin after using her as a major reason for rejecting McCain?
2) Assuming that you're assuming that Obama would be the dem candidate in '12, Powell would run against him after crossing party lines to endorse him?
But you've started me thinking about the future of the GOP in the event of an Obama blowout. Would they go to the right or center from here? Could Palin really become a key figure??
Biden in WV Friday
I'll try again:
Off topic a little, but there's only one thread active at a time, so excuse me:
I have a question about the Gallup tracking poll, particularly the disparity between the registered voter model and the two likely voter models. Looking at the chart on their website, it appears that while the registered voter results are based on polling done from Oct 16 through yesterday, that the results for the likely voter models lag by two days, and are based on a previous data set than what is current for the registered voter model. Above the chart showing likely voter results, it indicates the data is from polling between Oct14 - Oct16, which would be predominantly pre-debate.
I don't see any explanation of if or why that is so. Has anyone else seen this and can you please interpret/explain it to me? Thank you.
Maybe it is just a mistake? Scroll to the bottom to the likely voter chart.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111268/How-Gallups-likely-voter-models-work.aspx
pk,
Yeah, okay, right. No misunderestimating here.
Had other things on her mind. . . And her mind is so limited that she can't take on a tad more than just living . . . She's not 19 but displays less general knowledge of just about everything than an above average 19 y. o. It is not to be celebrated or elevated. Our "bar" must be set higher than that and, in fact, a higher bar used to be the standard of the Republicans.
Obama playing WV
hope Gen Powell is open to having his words used in commercials and fliers.
His words in military towns will carry great weight!
after seeing mccain on fns this morning I don't think the campaign has found it's voice. It still looks desperate. All it found where two days after the debate where folks could talk about joe the idiot when there was not much other news.
Now that other things have happened we'll see the bumbling begin.
oops. wrong page:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111232/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Retains-Significant-Lead.aspx
Nate, could you do an a write-up on Ohio. I'd like your take on what makes this such a difficult Obama state. The polls in Ohio have not moved as Obama has gone up...What's up?
As just_me, eric, and others have discussed, Powell's eloquent statement may sway some undecided voters in the military/defense communities in Virginia.
I suspect that the endorsement may also affect voter patterns in Fayetteville, NC (known to some locals as "Fayette-nam" due to the proximity of Fort Bragg). If Obama carries Cumberland County (which went ~52:48 Bush:Kerry), I have no doubt that he will carry the state.
This absolutely helps Obama. No question. Both parties wanted Powell and with all the praise he has received from McCain they took a big hit here. I see new Obama ads. How could anyone think it would be neutral or hurt Obama? Take a look at how favorable Powell is seen by the American people.
Several things have recently helped Obama:
1.Powell
2.Sarah Palin’s remarks about “real Americans” (We all new she would continue to compromise the McCain campaign)
3.150 million bucks
4.Two senators distancing themselves from McCain.
5.More papers endorsing Obama.
6.100,000 people crowds.
7.More ads then McCain can afford to compete with.
8.Robocalls will hurt McCain in the end.
9. Poor campaign by McCain
10. Superb campaign by Obama.
The reps are getting desperate now, they are trying to avoid a landslide. There is no reason to think they will, all of a sudden, come up with a winning campaign strategy.
The numbers after Tuesday or Wed. will give us a better idea but there is just too much against McCain at this point.
Rich Merritt said...
So what? Colin Powell had his change to be great and he blew it. As a former military guy, I know that Powell was the type we combat officers despised - a careerist who spent all of his time in Washington, not out in the field leading the troops.
Thanks for letting me vent a little.
Rich
Yeah, sonofabitch was a clerk his whole career. Never even *saw* combat until he'd made Major General. Got a bullshit Medal of Valor after he'd been made General, but the citation for it has gone mysteriously missing. Dude has never fired a gun at an enemy, never been shot at, closest he's come is hearing a mortar shell. Guy has about as much combat experience as Kathy Griffin.
Oh, sorry. That wasn't Colin Powell. That was David Petreaus.
Colin Powell served in Viet Nam as a Captain in 1962 and 1963, and led patrols out in the field. After he was wounded, he returned from 1968-70, where he single-handedly rescued several men from a burning helicopter.
The closest Petreaus has gotten to that kind of bravery is riding in a helicopter.
I agree with Nate's point that Powell's endorsement could make a difference in Virginia. For all the talk about the real conservative Virginia and the communist NoVA, the Commonwealth actually has a huge number of moderates, especially in the DC exurbs and Norfolk areas, for whom the military and national security are very important. And that group retains the highest respect for Gen. Powell.
Powell's endorsement may bring in from the cold, the conservative black vote, which could possibly make Clarence Thomas lonelier than the Magtag repairman. Powell has remained a much respected figure among African Americans, and there's no doubt that Powell considered the price he will have to pay politically, which compels me to respect him even more.
The fat lady has left the green room on her way to the stage. Let's start talking about Cabinet and SCOTUS apps.
But you've started me thinking about the future of the GOP in the event of an Obama blowout. Would they go to the right or center from here? Could Palin really become a key figure??
They haven't even lost yet and they are having this fight. I hope the Palin believers win, and the GOP turns into a backwater mob of dunces.
I think you are right to a point Nate, particularly about the importance of endorsements.
But I do feel like there is a portion of swing voters that will probably vote for him but are still a little scared of him.
I think the Powell's endorsement will be reassuring - and make those votes less likely to "swing."
Yay for Powell.
ERIC
I would add IN to the bottom of your list, subject to the polling in the next week
it may be almost as close to flipping as some of the others including OH
assuming that with NH & IA & NM locked in for Obama & all the 18 base Blue states + DC = 264 EVs...
IMHO the order in descending likeihood for the 8 battleground or tipping point states to flip & break 269 EVs would be:
Virginia
Colorado
Florida
MO
NV
North Carolina
Ohio
IN
sweep all 8 +111 EVs = 375 total EVs
[my snapshot prediction]
then the long shots like WV, GA, ND & MT + ____ ???
I believe Powell is a decent and intelligent man, but, again, it's a miracle he has retained any credibility. Selling Iraq on obviously specious grounds is not a redeemable blunder.
Sometimes you only get one chance.
Yes, Ed M, pray that they turn to the right, far right, the palin right. That would only speed up the bluing of America.
Quoth PeteKent, "It would be a mistake to misunderestimate her."
Oh, come on. Look, here we are, trying to ignore you in a desperate bid to increase the signal-to-noise in these comments, and you tee that malapropism up? That's low.
OK, fine, I'll bite this time. A "mis-under-estimate" is, presumably, an overestimate. So don't worry, no danger of that -- this is a woman who can suck most of the intelligence out of a room, just by opening her mouth. She won't be overestimated.
Ed, I really disagree. Democrats will lose power eventually, and I would think it disastrous for the country for a Palin or a(*shudder*) Palin-lite taking the presidency.
So Colon Powel endorses his Homie, thats how those Colored's are, its in their blood, just like they know how to dance and hotwire cars. Powell's a washed up career Army hasbeen who would have lost the first Gulf War if Schwarzkopf hadn't been there to read the big words for him. His main claim to fame is he looks like the Mulatto Mayor in "Birth of a Nation". McCain with 285 Evs.
PK,
On Sarah Palin. She just has never come across as exceptional in this campaign. Yes she can connect ot a certain type of voter. But that seems to be about it. She makes herself out to be an energy expert, but what does she really say on energy? She is all behind drilling for oil, but doesn't seem to be saying much else. Talks about the gas pipeline maybe, but neither of those two are significant long term solutions that will be sustainable.
And on any other issue, she seems not just out of her depth, but a mile out of her depth. Totally clueless. But not bothered by that. If she was bothered she would look like a rabbit in the headlights, she doesn't, she looks happy and content. Like she is proud to be so ignorant.
Bill Hicks would be having a field day about now.
As for Powell campaigning, it's widely reported that he said he wouldn't. Well, that's not exactly what he said. I recall it as being much more of a "I don't see that happening. There's not much time left."
Seems to me this ace just went up the campaign sleeve.
I wonder what the Jews think about Powell They have been using Obama's lack of foreign experience as a reason to not support him is states Like Florida and New Jersey. Now with Biden and Powell, what can they use now?
Secretary Powell
Powell will be on Obama's short list for Sec Def most likely. Obama will need a passive man to preside over the dismantlement of the American military and the chastened and repentant Powell would make a good choice.
Obama will reserve Sec State for someone who shares his more globalist world views. George Soros perhaps?
I just KNEW Obama was going to go back to his 2004 convention speech. And he just did in NC! It was awesome. Not word for word but in response to the pro-American b.s.
Lots of talk here about newspaper endorsements; is it telling that the Salt Lake Tribune has just announced its endorsement of Obama?
One has to wonder if it had anything to do with a "war hero" endorsing Obama, too...
No, neocons, the movement is away from you. A new electoral majority has taken shape that will forge a center-left landscape for decades to come. It over for the old racist south-conservative west coalition. You've been outplayed in VIRGINIA! Bye, bye.
Salt Lake endorsed yesterday, before the endorsement
Sweet smell of victory.
Or more correctly, given your name, Salt Lake endorse hier
Newsfrom Ohio, that gives me more hope. I think Obama should include Powell in those 30 minute add thingies he bought.He should also include all of those Clinton advisers
Powell's endorsement was thorough, definitive, damning to McCain, Palin, and the Republican Party.
Colin: this almost makes up for your playing the patsie during the runup to the Iraq War.
This is huge, Powell still has a 75%+ rating with the public and a poll done recently showed that his endorsement could influence 1/3 of undecideds....
$150m and Powell = The newscycle is ours now for 2-3 days which is 20% of the remaining days.
Its all about the ground game now and McCain is even weaker there than people think...
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gGg3dj
That was a fucking amazing speech.
North Carolina is in play.
sweet smell of bs, bamobambambam.
Why are right-wingers obsessed with George Soros and his so-called global conspiracy.
Ah... the name. And the ethnicity. Yes, well, silly question.
Obama has $100 Million + left for these 2 weeks and McCain has about $20 million.
Oh dear.
And McCain can trot out Kissinger, I'm-in-charge Haig, Eaglewho?, and Baker (okay, I'll give him Baker as someone people might like a bit)
McCain has been throwing around the "socialist" tag for a few days. Any takers on when "communist" leaves his or his associates' lips for the first time?
Perhaps Palin will demonstrate a capacity for growth which will really just be na enhancement of her poise. Any Presidential nominee on the GOP side would be wise to recognize and affirm her personal growth should he have any desire to win the Presidency.
Hi,
Off topic but still relevant =). I plan on attending the Early Vote for Change rally tomorrow in Orlando, FL with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. I know the area as I live in Orlando, thoughts on when I should try to get there? It won't be in an open field so 100K would be impossible I would think. It is in our downtown arena (think Orlando Magic). Doors open at 3:00 event at 6:00 for those that have done this or prep for it, when should I be there to actually get a seat...how will I go to the RR if I have to go, and the little things. you can email me at yazirah2003@yahoo.com as I don't want to make my blog public yet. Or respond here for fun =) Thanks!
~Yari
PeteKent:
I'd just like to say that you are a total moron. I'm not joking here; you actually define the word 'stupid'.
Seriously. I'm surprised you remember to breathe during the day.
Powell would be awesome as Sec. of Defense. But would he actually take it? I doubt. But I do wish.
Also remember Dick Lugar endorsed Obama's foreign policy this as did Gen. Petraeus last week in saying that we need to engage in talks with our enemies....
This may not win Obama many new votes, but you know where it will really help? When that white Republican friend of yours is saying "I'd vote for a black man for president, just not Obama! You know, if Colin Powe- oh f*ck it..."
Great job Nate,
Editor and Publisher writer Greg Mitchell analysed the effects of Editorial endorsements in '04 and realized that they matter in swing areas.
Unfortunately, a lot of voters just can't collect enough dots, or see the picture if they do. Having someone else do it so they feel ok to actually go vote adds to the final count.
I think the same is true with endorsements. Powell, as you point out, is a very out of the box figure. I think someone else expressed what many liberals will think about this. Because of his reaoning, that it was unequivicol (rather than 'soft' as many were speculating yesterday) and the very excellent smack down of the whole Muslim fear strategy, many of us will consider it at least a partial redemption for his role in the Iraq invasion.
The timing for the news cycle, the additional timing (and reality) of Obama's fundraising haul, is going to be big as well.
Using the football analogy from above, we will take every TD and FG the Obama tean can rack up in the 4th. A rout of the GOP and it's failed ideologies is exactly what this country needs to reverse them beginning 1/20/09.
PK, if you havent learned from this election how useless it is to predict the '12 nominees this early, it is yet another reason to scroll past your comments.
I promise this time to give the touch screen mouse that is pinch hitting for the dead one, time to post this only once.
@ Buckeye:
Hey, I'm in Toledo too. I was getting the same sense about the McCain/Palin rally. This state will still be close, but I can say the Obama campaign seems much better organized than the Gore or Kerry campaigns were.
When President Obama shows the great racist right that he is not the threat that they think he is, then 2012 may well be an even bigger cake walk.
This will probably be a wash in that Obama gains from this will probably equal Sarah Palin's gains from Saturday Night Live (assuming there are any)-this continues to put Barack Obama, the poor black child with a funny name, on track to win this election running away.
Cutting Confessions-another, but different One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest-the bizarre and touching comedy filled story of a midwestern man and an abused Beverly Hills girl:
www.myspace.com/372390338
www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com
One of the worlds best psychiatric hospitals implodes-three deaths and the rape of a 14 year old girl bring government officials to investigate what the hell went wrong-what would happen to the girl in Sarah Palin's America?:
www.myspace.com/372390338
www.sarahpalinrumorcheck.blogspot.com
John Nails point about news cycles is good. I think Chuck Todd mentioned that this morning on MTP too. There are sixteen left and if Powell takes two, it makes it that much more difficult to close the gap. If a devastating campaign concept can gain one or two points in a week then McCain is going to have to change the math used as well.
Nate & Sean,
Do the 538 peeps a favor and modify the site to include ALL national polls and the correct average. I and a lot of people here want to break the habit of visiting RCP. The only way to do that is to offer the same service here, but accurate, and not just as part of "today's polls" update.
Oh Sweet Jesus,
Talking head ranting (unintelligibly, I might add) about Ayers again . . .
LOL@ newsfromOH :-)
Thanks for the clarification about SLC Tribune; even though I'm six hours AHEAD of NY time, I get confused when I wake up and read the news from the states.
I can't tell what happened yesterday or today ;-)
The Repulicons going home to roost is worth no more than 2% net at this point. Game is over, people. Stop fretting and get to work on GOTV.
franglais
pas de problem
He won't take Sec Def but could be a great Counselor to the President which is not uncommon anymore.
I was surprised that Powell did an open endorsement rather than an implicit one
BUT that leaves me to make an assumption as to WHY NOW & in that manner on MTP ?
conclusion after thorough review...
Powell got off the proverbial fence where he sat even though CW said all summer that he would support Obama because...
his public stance now was taken to ward off a neo-con 'October Surprise' meant to shift the election at the last second [ie - in the next 2 weeks]
we have seen it before, remember 2004 ?
'RED' level terrorist warnings on the eve of the election + the OB Laden video release at the last minute that probably cost Kerry the narrow win
IF that does happen now, Powell will step up & not only denounce it but assure the public that Obama will be the right man to handle the terrorist crisis rather than Mac
perhaps Powell even got tipped off that there was a neo-con plan afoot
can you say Cheney & Rummie & Wolfowitz & their cabal of haters ???
they will not go away easily or quietly from the center or consolidated power for the past v8 years...
I hear Obama will spend 5 million in West Virginia for the next week.
Nate, I agree with porridgegun about including all the polls in a way similar to RCP so we don't have to go there any more.
PorridgeGun,
Wouldn't having Nate place the national poll average here only change the discussion about why his is different than RCP's? :)
In his post-MTP interview outside the studios, Powell totally demolished Michelle Bachman. He even defended Obama from the Socialist accusations. Great stuff. the link is on CNN.com.
I hear McCain will spend $10 (yes, $10 not $10m) in Florida over the next week. He's got about $80 left..
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/energetically_wrong.html
Yeah, a real energy expert.
pk,
My final comment on Palin. To visit NY in one's 40's, while campaigning for high national office, and say "My, there sure is a lot to see here" is definitive proof that she couldn't possibly catch up to, much less surpass, mediocrity even if she lived to be 400 (or some other Biblical age . . )
"This will probably be a wash in that Obama gains from this will probably equal Sarah Palin's gains from Saturday Night Live (assuming there are any)-this continues to put Barack Obama, the poor black child with a funny name, on track to win this election running away."
You're kidding...right?
They made her look like a dolt on SNL, and the true undecideds aren't moving because she was on SNL. Besides, that is already a footnote. It was yesterday's news 10 hours after it happened.
Powell as Special Advisor on Military Affairs!
"Powell – Palin ‘12"
Pure fantasy.
Powell would be 75 in 2012, and has effectively told the Repulican party that they are becoming right-wing fanatics.
If the Rep party is still the same in 2012 as it is now, why would Powell want to accept their nomination, and why would the party want to nominate him?
Powell has also given his opinion of Palin. She has been found lacking, in his opinion, so why would he accept her on a ticket?
Presuming Palin manages to be re-elected in Alaska. Out-of-office candidates don't succeed very often - ask Romney or Guliani.
Her term as Governor ends in 2010. It would make more sense for her to try for a Senate seat instead, but that would mean having to defeat incumbent Lisa Murkowski (Rep) in a primary first. Neither is impossible, but she may also face the TrooperGate issue if it is invesigated further by the AK legislature in the 2009 session.
Out-of-office candidates don't get very far, as Rudi can attest.
"When President Obama shows the great racist right that he is not the threat that they think he is, then 2012 may well be an even bigger cake walk."
I rather think this is the task at hand!
Obama has $100 Million + left for these 2 weeks and McCain has about $20 million.
Oh dear.
----------------------
I heard he had less because the majority of that money is RNC money. RNC will have to make the decision to use it for McCain or use for their senate and congressional candidates running for office.
all powell all the time - yeahhhh!
some mccain punk, a puffier looking tucker bounds type, named brian rogers just got chewed up and spit out on msnbc - he was talking about the millions and billions of endorsements that mccain got - yawn!!
Powell's endorsement certainly has more up side then down side. The undecided is the group that both campaigns are trying to reach and this endorsement will help Obama with some of those undecided voters. Powell is well respected by both Republicans and Democrats and I think it will translate directly to votes for Obama.
√ Obama
McCain
It further helps to define and validate Obama as someone who is ready to be president.
No doubt they'll be a few purity trolls on this thread.
Listening to Powell speak today, he's more refreshing and progressive minded than half the Democrats in the House and Senate.
Regarding the comments about the news cycles, we all know how much Schmidt is obsessed for trying to control those every day. The loss of 2 or 3 would be an absolute nightmare at this point. It wouldn't surprise me that yet another McCain Hail Mary pass will be thrown tomorrow.
Yes, mc9cain, you might be right. But more information does not equal bias. And a lack of bias is what sets this sight apart from others.
buckeye said...
I hear Obama will spend 5 million in West Virginia for the next week.
HOT DAMN.
Gore lost WV
I wonder what awe a first time vistor to Alaska would express.
I find Palin's exclamation about New York endearing and reassuring.
And the derision against her to be irritating and vainglorious.
All, I just got the T-Shirt from the ad below of Super Obama, it is AWESOME....
Powell as surrogate and doing more interviews would be enough to control this anti American socialist crap. Larry King, Wolf etc...
And yes any October surprise is helped immensely here...especially as Palin is being cited by Powell and every paper endosement as one major reason that McCain has failed.
Reminding people she could be in charge at that point would be a good commercial as well as have surrogates hammer her..
CORREA
the big Obama + Clinton rally in central FL on Moday will be in downtown O-town OUTSIDE of the Amway Center
they moved it outdoors, but at the arena [on the north side] to accomodate the expected crowds
damm, wish I could go - hope it draws big crowds like KC & St Louie did yesterday !!!
have a great one tomorrow; then post here on what you observe & the entire experience PLEASE
FL is going BLUE !!!
we can start early voting here on Monday - and Obama will barnstorm the state to lock it down IMHO
a jmc pundit on Faux News is confronted with how nobody cares about the Ayers mantra and Obama already addressed it they just go on and on saying "We think it's important.....blah, blah, blah....."
Amazingly they're still going on and on about Ayers!
I think Powell's endorsement might help more than Nate implies for the following reasons:
1. This is a crossover endorsement of the highest magnitude.
2. There is a desire to vote for any acceptable Democratic candidate. Undecideds who have admired Powell but felt Obama was too inexperienced, may now feel that Obama acceptable to them.
3. It helps to demoralize the GOP and could encourage more crossover newspaper endorsements.
In summary, though not a game changer, Powell's endorsement could halt McCain's recent signs of joementum.
While not meant to inform you all to the state of my boring life right now (all things election 24/7) I do have to share that I dreamed last night that I woke up to MSNBC having the Homeland Security threat level raised and they were all blathering about it. In the dream, I was trying to figure out what the threat was that raised it and I was so PISSED that the Republicans pulled that last card out.
However, I woke up and saw the 150 million September. And now the Powell endorsement. :) A threat level increase now would not necessarily be in McCain's favor. But either way, those are not my favorite types of dreams.
PK, Palin is certainly not more of a master of energy than Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is also a Republican woman, but she has lots of experience, knowledge, and an appeal to moderates. Quite simply, the GOP provided many better choices for VP AND other choices that McCain actively WANTED to make. But he was afraid of upsetting the extreme wing of his party and went with someone he hardly knew.
He is paying the price and rightfully so.
"This will probably be a wash in that Obama gains from this will probably equal Sarah Palin's gains from Saturday Night Live (assuming there are any)-this continues to put Barack Obama, the poor black child with a funny name, on track to win this election running away."
Seriously?
You think Palin performing poorly on SNL is equivalent to what Powell said?
Even if she did do good, only a brain dead monkey would think these are on equal footing.
Has America fallen this far?
As to inevitability;
WV = red no matter how many people (try to) vote for Obama.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/19/132343/11/189/635454
How many EV's will McShame win this way? Is there any realistic estimate out somewhere on this number?
Rush Limbaugh tells it as it is. Black voting for a black. Hardly a surprise. This will galvernize the white republican / conservative vote even more. Thumbs down on endorsement.
Have any of you seen one of those old cartoons when you the bugs bunny trying to stop a leak? He puts a finger in one hole, then another leak starts, he covers it, then another, then another and another. Soon Bugs runs out of body parts to stop it and the leak is going through him. This is McCain'scampaign as of October 19, 2008. Obama is sprouting leaks in all of the red states and McCain is desparately trying to stop the leak and he doesn't have enough money to stop the leaks.
McCain should try to balances things out by getting Cheney to endorse Obama.
Then again Cheney listens to no one.
The significance here is greatest in state's close to the margins.
http://www.dagblog.com/politics/yes-virginia-and-ohio-and-missouri-powell-endorsement-matters
The significance here is greatest in state's close to the margins.
http://www.dagblog.com/politics/yes-virginia-and-ohio-and-missouri-powell-endorsement-matters
News Alert: McCain just spent $5.49 on a Google banner ad and now has $74.51 left to spend in two weeks. Please send any spare change you have to www.johnmccain.com
Yes! I'm so glad Powell endorsed Obama, not because I have such respect for Powell, but because so many Americans do. It's hard to smear Obama with being anti-American when a military figure like Powell endorses him so whole-heartedly.
sherwick said...
News Alert: McCain just spent $5.49 on a Google banner ad and now has $74.51 left to spend in two weeks. Please send any spare change you have to www.johnmccain.com
hahahahahaha
Though the endorsement is not a gamechanger (Nate is correct), it does mean a leveling of the polls and attitudes of the electorate. It stabilizes the picture in a MAJOR way. Still can't believe that the campaign has more money than they know what to do with. Money will be going into ND, WV, KY, GA, IN, MO, MT, and NV like crazy. Wonderful news.
"franglais said...
Lots of talk here about newspaper endorsements; is it telling that the Salt Lake Tribune has just announced its endorsement of Obama?
One has to wonder if it had anything to do with a "war hero" endorsing Obama, too...
"
No, the Salt Lake Tribune, Chicago Tribune, and Houston Chronicle endorsements were all up before that.
PeteKent -
In Andrew Sullivan's words: "I don't think Palin is dumb; she is just proudly ignorant, a cynical opportunist, and a pathological liar."
Oh, and an anti-semite.
Obama will reserve Sec State for someone who shares his more globalist world views. George Soros perhaps?
What wingnuts imagine an Obama cabinet will look like:
Secretary of State: George Soros
Secretary of Agriculture: Wavy Gravy
Secretary of the Interior: Barbara Streisand
Attorney General: Ben Affleck
Secretary of Commerce: George Soros again
Secretary of Defense: Richard Simmons
Labor Secretary: Che Guevara
Secretary of Education: MIchael Moore
Energy Secretary: William Ayers
Secretary of Transportation: Kanye West
HHS Secretary: Paris Hilton
Secretary of the Treasury: Soros
Homeland Security Director: Rachel Ray
Director of Veterans Affairs: RuPaul
Director of HUD: Kimbo Slice
A follow-up video of Powell explaining his endorsement.
He seems every dissapointed with McCain's smear tactics.
I'm expecting this Powell endorsement will lead to a whole new wave of donations to the Obama/Biden campaign, We need it to fight the slime from the right.
joek1972 said...
Obama will reserve Sec State for someone who shares his more globalist world views. George Soros perhaps?
What wingnuts imagine an Obama cabinet will look like:
Secretary of State: George Soros
Secretary of Agriculture: Wavy Gravy
Secretary of the Interior: Barbara Streisand
Attorney General: Ben Affleck
Secretary of Commerce: George Soros again
Secretary of Defense: Richard Simmons
Labor Secretary: Che Guevara
Secretary of Education: MIchael Moore
Energy Secretary: William Ayers
Secretary of Transportation: Kanye West
HHS Secretary: Paris Hilton
Secretary of the Treasury: Soros
Homeland Security Director: Rachel Ray
Director of Veterans Affairs: RuPaul
Director of HUD: Kimbo Slice
HAHAHAHAHHA
Just thought I'd give a heads-up, today on electoral-vote.com, every Kerry/Gore state has been coloured in as "strong Democrat".
Kerry states + NM + IA = 264 dark blue states. "Strong Democrat" means that the one-week rolling average of polls shows a double digit lead in that state.
Guys,
I don't think Nate has time to update polls continuously all day as new national polls are released. Nate does havee a primary job that pays his bills.
This will galvernize the white republican / conservative vote even more.
You are outnumbered, the party is over. You are going to understand this very shortly.
I think Secretary of the Interior should be Willion Ayers though..
WHY NOW
There are rumblings that he told the campaign a month ago that he would endorse and the campaign had him strategically hold it until this week.
OMG, Real Joe that is hilarious.
I can't imagine what the downside is.
If Powell had endorsed McCain today, it would have been a punch to the gut for Obama. The PR pounding he would have recieved this week in the MSM would be hard to recover from. The fact that Powell gave a full throated endorsement of Obama, while denouncing the shift to the far right of the Republican Party was unexpected and significant. He also made it clear he has serious problems with Mooseburger and Bachman, the nutjob from Minnesota. Powell knows the fringe rapture right lunatics have taken over party and may never return.
CORREA
FYI - more on the O-Town Obama/Clinto rally on Monday, including parking advisory [I suggest you use the Citrus Bowl shuttle service]...
"Here are the particulars for Barack Obama's Monday event in Orlando.
Downtown Orlando to Host Obama & Clinton for Early Vote Kick-Off
ORLANDO – Kicking off the opening of early voting in Florida, Democratic Presidential Nominee Barack Obama and U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton will hold an “Early Vote for Change” Rally together on Monday, October 20, OUTSIDE the Amway Arena in downtown Orlando.
Obama and Clinton will urge Floridians to vote for change in advance of Election Day.
Prior to the joint event, Senator Obama will hold an “Early Vote for Change” Rally in the Tampa Bay region, and Senator Clinton will hold an “Early Vote for Change” Rally in Broward County.
Early voting sites open across Florida on Monday. Voters can cast their ballots at any early voting location in their county. To find the nearest location, visit www.VoteForChange.com or call 1-877-2FL-OBAMA.
Monday, October 20
EARLY VOTE FOR CHANGE RALLY WITH BARACK OBAMA AND HILLARY CLINTON
Amway Arena North Staircase
600 W. Amelia Street
Orlando, FL 32801
Gates Open: 3:00 PM
Program Begins: 6:00 PM
Public parking is extremely limited. FREE shuttles will be provided from the Citrus Bowl Stadium (1610 W Church Street) beginning at 1pm.
For all other downtown lots, normal rates apply.
The event is free and open to the public. Tickets are NOT required, but you are strongly encouraged to RSVP. Members of the public can RSVP by going to www.barackobama.com/orlandochange.
Space is limited and available on a first-come, first-served basis."
Powell's best known characteristic is his cautiousness. His endorsement will work best with those voters who have doubts and hesitation to vote for Obama - which is probably 2-3% of the voters at least.
It is a major boost.
McCain likely has Joe the Plumber with him today in Toledo. The contract between him and Colin Powell (who specifically refutes the new McCain talking points) will reemphasize who is the serious candidate and who is the desperate, gimmicky one.
On its own it will solidify Obama leaners and maybe cause McCain leaners to pause a little.
Hopefully this will lead to more retired military leadership and organizations to come out for Obama. That would definitely help to seal the landslide.
How McCain and his drooling monkeys handle this has the potential to either end it, or make it closer.
It is not out of the realm of possibility that McCain labels Powell as an un-American terrorist-loving radical. In their panic and given that Palin has absolutely no internal filter this is a real possibility.
Or if he says he still respects him but disagrees and drops the matter, he might not lose many leaners. That is the best case for McCain.
Brian, are you kidding? Momentum momentum momentum. Obama's campaign has been a *perfect* example of his economic plans to build from the bottom up instead of the top down. That's why now.
I'd kill for Obama to come out after he wins and say "Allah Akbar!" and start marching those folks out and giving them those posts. Then turn around and say "just kidding!".
petekent wrote:
Obama will need a passive man to preside over the dismantlement of the American military and the chastened and repentant Powell would make a good choice.
Let's rank this in the same category as your keen "insight" on Greek Columns. Just wait until the voters finally realise the significance of that Convention stage set! Whoa! McCain landslide!
Everything that failed before can be brushed off and presented as new, and provide a source of hope for the McCain campaign.
And once again, your ability to read minds and get to the "real issue" is impressive. How else could we know that Obama intends to "dismantle the American military" without your awesome prophetic powers? Certainly Obama would never admit to it, which merely "proves" his intentions.
It's all so obvious, once you abandon filthy reason and silly facts.
kic said...
OMG, Real Joe that is hilarious.
that's not my post
Powell Endorsement and Reaction
Also, The New York Times has more on Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, a Muslim U.S. soldier who died in Iraq. Khan was referenced by Powell this morning to illustrate the point that being labeled a “Muslim” should not be deemed a smear. The photo Powell referenced:
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/19/colin-powell-endorses-obama/
Just bought the Superman T-Shirt.
*But be warned, the priority shipping is $22, which you don't find out until you finalize the order.
I never thought I'd be putting on a jersey during election day.
That's too bad, Joe, I thought it was the funniest thing you ever wrote.
This is, no doubt, the best run campaign of my adult life. Totally planned AM. They release their astounding September haul numbers (did they thank McCain for his VP pick?) just so they could have the story stepped on by Powell's uncategorical endorsement a few hours later.
Brilliant!
I would kill if Obama said the night of the election "To Rudi GUliani, not bad for a community orgnaizer.
Sherwick - pass the hat for mccain - LOL!
He seems to have left little doubt of his misgivings over McCain's competence. Many people respect his service and his remarkable handling of the Kuwait "rescue". This will push any remaining doubters toward Obama. Good analysis, Nate.
In free republic posters said that Colin Powell is a racist.
You really should watch Powell's comments from after MTP.
I think it only helps to have another very reasonable, straightforward, and facts-based analysis in support of Obama. It highlighted what the current GOP "leadership" is lacking: rationality, intelligence, and inclusion. They've ceded all of those values to the Democrats, and Powell's discussion made that abundantly clear.
I doubt this will sway voters *out* of the McCain camp. But I think it will firm up a lot of people's impressions about Obama from the debates, and I suspect some of those people are still technically terming themselves "undecideds." And again, the tone of Powell's endorsement makes pulling the lever for McCain seem even less reasonable and smart.
I don't think the McCain campaign will try to swiftboat Powell. McCain has seemed very nervous about *explicit* race-baiting, which is why he's avoided Wright. I think he genuinely respects Powell, and he must be enough of a realist to be thinking about his political legacy. He doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who went after two black men whom he formerly called heroes just because they disagreed with him--and certainly not the former military leader. I expect the campaign will treat this as a "disappointment," try to shrug it off, and try their best to move on, probably by talking about Joe the Plumber again. And again, Powell's comments will just highlight the triviality of Joe the Plubmer at this point. (This is not to suggest that surrogates won't say idiotic things about Powell, because I am sure they will.)
OK. Who will be Sec. of State?
What's important with Powell is not whether you hate or love him, agree or disagree with him, past or present.... but that he is yet ANOTHER conservative/Repub in an ever growing list that endorse Obama (including newspapers). This shoves Republican morale into the dirt. Nothing like giving a big fat middle finger in an eloquent way as Powell did. His message was so clear, so succinct he was a sniper with his words and.... poignant. That's powerful stuff.
Am I the only person who knows Obama supports EXPANDING the military? Lol.
If the Powell endorsement is perceived to have a minimal effect on increasing Obama votes, why did Limbaugh, Giuliani, Fox news rush in to portray it as a back man endorsing a black man situation. Powell will have some effect on undecideds and with Obamas current polling average at or near 50, even 10-30% capture of Obama scares them!
Mathew H
THANK YOU for giving General Powell's actual combat history. Among the vets I have cared for (RN) and known, that is always part of their respect for him.
Speaking of the Cabinet. I am getting interested in who will end up in some of those spots. Wondering if Obama may make some changes because of the shift in national and global focus from the occupations and terror to finance and economy.
Unfortunately Edwards probably did in his chances for AG. (I would like to make every male DEM candidate keep a large bold list in their offices, vehicles, bathrooms and bedrooms. Hart, Clinton, Spitzer, Edwards, Your name?) Someone suggested Patrick Fitzgerald which is intriguing but I frankly cannot stand the thought of any Rethug anywhere near the DOJ for 2 decades.
I have the same feeling about allowing them near treasury, commerce, HHS, security, State, the interior, the environment. There are just too many problems to fix. Too much power in appointing the political administrators who determine regulations, enforcement, etc. Maybe for his second term.
Looking at the history of the parties from the beginning, there has been a lot of change in the whole process. I think we are going to see the GOP go through a lot of internal conflict and several election cycles before the reform is recognizable and effective. Meanwhile, the Green and Independent parties may gain some ground. If we institute Instant Vote Recount ballots, it would add even more to the growth of smaller parties.
BTW, anyone see a size estimate for the KC speech? A dead mouse and touch screen back up make surfing a royal pain.
@dario
Hahahaha gotta love the crazy freeptards! Good lord. They're kinda like pets.
darío said...
In free republic posters said that Colin Powell is a racist.
hahahahahaha
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