This weekend, I sat down with Dan Rather in Austin, Texas -- where Obama yardsigns outnumber McCain yard signs by 15-to-1 -- to preview what to watch for on election night, when I'll be joining Dan live from HDNet's set in Washington. Clip follows below the jump.
10.30.2008
Election Night Preview with Dan Rather
@ 6:46 PM
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If I had to guess, I'd say good news everywhere except for Indiana.
And I'm totally okay with that.
WV: pleortes.
plurality?
"Slashdot has an effective community-based moderation. Comments, and posters get moderated ( modded down ) and readers can choose whether to even see comments based on their ranking."
Weather Underground also has this feature.
Side note: I mean the weather site Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com). Jeff Masters' blogs are must-reads when a storm is approaching the US.
Nate now has a McCain victory at 3.7%
A 1 day decline in the win percentage is great news for McCain since he has Obama right where he wants him.
Maybe I am too much of an optimist, but maybe when McCain said that seemingly incredibly out of touch comment, he really meant it. As in he is a closet Obama supporter.
There is precedence for this. Remember when McCain refused to vote for his own immigration bill?
WV- sicali(blue font color)- Why yes, California is a blue state
ink I can't tell you how sad it makes me it is one of the most whimsical kooky well executed fun shows. I love both leads in it and the vibe. :-(
Does everyone realize that there will only be 4 more "today's polls" posts after tonights? How weird. This election seemed to take forever and nos the last couple of weeks are just whizzing by.
stici. McCain feels all stici and hot when he thinks about Joe the Plumber.
Did a quick cross reference of all the Ohio polling on pollster.com
Many had cross tables that included early voting stats. THese were small sample sizes so had a big MOE. Looking really good though. The margin between O and M was between 17% and 27% across all the surveys. The Acerage was probably around 24%ish.
Given that about 20-25% of Ohio has already voted this is really not a bad thing to head into an election day holding.
Based on 2004 exit polls GOPers usually turn out in Ohio at 40-35 in their favour. No lets say turnout out is 125% on last year and the partisan divide is similar this early vote could just be what tips it over the edge.
Someone above said that we may have some drunk people stumbling around on Wednesday. I'll be the token Melbourne drunk on Wednesday, let us hope is celebration and not commiserations.
Previously, the ad was only running in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida,
wtf? And it didn't work?!?!?!!?
...
Time to plan for the Palin revolution, I guess.
"Nate, why do you have a 0.00% for a McCain landslide?"
Because he didn't run 1,000,000,000 simulations. 1/1 billion is roughly the landslide percentage for McCain.
"McCain loses OH, wins election: 0.01%"
Oh, dear.
"stici. McCain feels all stici and hot when he thinks about Joe the Plumber."
Thank you for that disturbing image!
Eric
I'd have to put Dukakis as worst because he blew a big lead against a weakish opponent. Dole & Mondale were running against popular incumbents. McCain had a bad situation but he ran a lousy campaign.
So: Dukakis, McCain, Dole, Mondale
Does everyone realize that there will only be 4 more "today's polls" posts after tonights? How weird. This election seemed to take forever and nos the last couple of weeks are just whizzing by.
NO!!!!!!!!! Nate can spend at LEAST two more weeks after this analyzing exit poll data. :D
"So what could have made Obama get a big jump today."
One day closer to election day. The Super Tracker ticked up 0.1 points. This is basically what it looks like when Obama has a steady day of polling in the last week before the Election.
Does everyone realize that there will only be 4 more "today's polls" posts after tonights? How weird. This election seemed to take forever and nos the last couple of weeks are just whizzing by.
No, no, no! I expect a 2010 Senate Roundup on November 6th, damnit!
For those bringing up the cubs, remember, political campaigns are fundamentally different than sports events. Campaigns are won over the long term, and the candidate him/herself doesn't have to do anything on the election day. Think of it: if Obama blew out his knee ligaments this weekend, would he lose the election because of it? Of course not. Sure, GOTV is important on election day, but that foundation for that has already been put in place. Obama's not driving people to the polls on election day.
There's no chance that McCain can play out of his mind on election day, like say Villanova 1984 vs Geotown, and somehow upset Obama.
"They're a perennially shitty team that gets to October in a weak division. That's statistical reason enough to get swept (although short series are inherently unpredictable)."
___________________________________
This year the Cubs were swept by the perenially shitty team that gets to October in a weak division, my beloved Dodgers. The Cubs totally should have owned my Dodgers. Not that I minded...
Occedie. It is the disorder that makes me hit refresh all day to see new poll numbers.
We have a governors race in VA in 2009. I think that I've even seen the lady who wants to run for Lt Gov on the Dem side advertising on this site (or its targetted and they can tell I'm a Virginian on a political site). And didn't Nate say that he'd try to get a handle on the house for 2010? (good luck most races get virtually no polling).
reistaso- Ground rice mush
NATE must be writing his Poll Update as I type since he has posted the latest results from tonday's simulations
Mac back down to 3.7%
I still think that is being optimistic btw
my word is 'impinge' - how true, since 538 impinges on my free time [what is free time during this election anyway....]
4 more days, SI SE PUEDE !!!
the late night rally in Kissimmee was really sumthin'
wish y'all coulda been there to witness it in real time...
Obama reacts to report about Rahm Emanuel approached to be White House chief of staff
Barack Obama was asked Thursday night about an AP report that Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) has been approached to be a chief of staff in an Obama White House.
On the tarmac, Washington Times reporter Christina Bellantoni asked Obama about a possible Emanuel appointment.
"I'm trying to win an election..." Obama said.
Is that a no?
"Plouffe is my chief of staff," Obama said, a reference to his campaign chief of staff.
I asked Obama chief strategist David Axelrod--who has also been Emanuel's media consultant--about the report.
"Don't believe everything you read. I don't," Alexrod said.
SUSA SC POLL OUT ??
Nate put those numbers up a while ago. I think he is being a poll tease. (Insert inappropriate joke here.)
Ecryon. Pete Kent, Ecryon on Election day.
The charts have been updated for about twenty minutes now. Either the analysis will be extra long, or Nate is drunk on his media conquest.
Are you guys really convinced that Wright won't work?
I'm not so sure about that.
Trignom: Sarah Palin's child performing Pythagoras' theorem.
Did anyone believe the story about Rahm? No way would he give up becoming Speaker of the House to be chief of staff.
wow
many moonbat's are concern trolls
Blogger Seretse said...
Are you guys really convinced that Wright won't work?
Chill. It's already been playing in the battleground states where it matters and what effect has it had?
WV: glisalie—a slick attack ad?
seretse, unless someone finds a video of Barack and Wright waxing philosophical about the best ways to overthrow the government and put in place totalitarian rule, in the next three days, it's not gonna happen.
Sorry if this is a repeat--just don't see it posted.
Total geek smackdown of Mc's "leaked memo" for yesterday--you know "functionally tied"
http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2277
Like Dave Brodbeck, I watched the '04 speech (although I usually ignore political speeches, even when I like the candidate) and said to my wife "That man will be president someday." But I figured 2012 or 2016.
wv: obulamy -- a kind way of describing any McFailin speech
anbruch said...
Chill. It's already been playing in the battleground states where it matters and what effect has it had?
I didn't realize they had started airing it.
Wright adds will excite the base. Maybe both bases.
Independents won't care.
Real Joe,
Would Obama be arrogant and foolish enough to start putting together his administration before the election?
Do you know the origination of the rumor?
VM- pricie 'George "dumbya" Bush tenure as president has been pricie to the world.'
Would Obama be arrogant and foolish enough to start putting together his administration before the election?
Were you being facetious? The Obama transition team already has hundreds of lists of potential administration apointees.
GAH!!! WHERE IS THE POLLING UPDATE???!!!
Why would the Jeremiah Wright ad work? It isn't new information. Today's voter sees rehashing of information that is already common knowledge for the desperation tactic that it is.
Even if they didn't, attack politics plays right into what Obama stands against and what is appealing about him. Because of that, such attacks have the opposite effect to what's intended.
Obama is not one to wait until the last minute (yes, statement of the obvious). He will want everything in place on Day 1 to start working on policy. It will be a BIG change from Mr. 9 to 5 treat the job like a figurehead Chairman of the Board position . . .
david: You're kidding, right? You think it's a bad idea to have a team lined up and ready to step in? You think he should dawdle for a few months, take him time? It's not like the country is in a crisis or anything.
It would be irresponsible not to plan for an upcoming administration.
jakam,
Related to this, one of the shows yesterday said Obama's secret service nickname could be "Overkill" for hitting every possible campaign angle, while McCain should be "Kitchen Sink"
"Were you being facetious? The Obama transition team already has hundreds of lists of potential administration apointees."
There is a difference between having people put together lists and Obama actually talking to a specific person for a specific job. WH CoS is a position that Obama will take personal interest in.
real joe - SUSA SC is out!
M: 52
O: 44
How much media does 2 million buy? It seems small enough that unelss its like on MNF it will hit very few voters.
Newflash: Obama will not be President on Nov 5.
Having the candidate directly involved in hiring decisions before the election is foolhardy.
One of the downfalls of HRC was her acting like she was preordained to win.
Again, there is a difference between casual discussions during downtime and having a team compile lists and actively building your administration before the election.
the polls are up
new thread!!
david, you haven't paid attention. Or you read half sentences.
Nate,
You da man!
Great conversation with Dan Rather.
,dave
damn, you have to believe that if the election were another two weeks out, he might get another 5 or more states. IN, GA, MT, ND, MO, AZ, and even LA?
BUT I WANT IT OVER NOW!! :)
Interesting interview. However I've gotta confess my favorite part of the clip was Dan Rather's plug right at the end,
'we can't promise you fancy touch screens but we promise we'll let our guests finish their sentences'.
No, I was directly responding to what RJ posted.
"Barack Obama was asked Thursday night about an AP report that Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) has been approached to be a chief of staff in an Obama White House."
Obama would have to be a fool to send people out and offer them jobs in the administration now.
Interesting interview. However I've gotta confess my favorite part of the clip was Dan Rather's plug right at the end,
'we can't promise you fancy touch screens but we promise we'll let our guests finish their sentences'.
While we're waiting for Nate's analysis... what's up with intrade? In the past day it has shot up about 4-5 points for mccain. Are these idiots getting advice from zogby (i guess not, because based on the latest fluctuation in his poll McCain is toast, according to Zogby). IBD/TPP? Is that "rouge trader" trader back, continuing his valiant attempt to get mccain elected by keeping his intrade stock slightly overvalued (while pissing away money)? Not that I care, just a slight annoyance to me.
Both campaigns have appointed Transition Team reps that have been meeting with administration officials about arranging FBI checks on potential appointees, briefings, setting up transition headquarters, etc. Both would be foolish not to do so.
The idea that anyone in a real position of influence in the BO campaign would talk about an major appointment is foolish. Rumors are just rumors and shooting them down like BO did on the tarmac are the best way to handle them.
wv: aggent as in BO will be the major aggent for change for the next 8 years
LA has also has had huge AA turnout in early voting, and that's with a great many of them exiting the state since 2004.
Long time reader, first time poster. Ant links to current Kansas 2nd district house race?
david,
Chief of staff, is probably down the list. But I have to believe that he's got a very short list of folks for treasury/financial positions. Even if it seems foolhardy, the reality is that those folks have to start transitioning immediately, even if they don't make decisions.
everybody out of the pool. new thread
It is no different than starting a VP search, it is something you don't do before the nomination is secure.
Unless you want a ton of grief and bad press.
I'm just going to bare my ignorance and ask where this "Bradley effect" came from. I heard the story of how it started (from a particular erection) but, want to know if it is a proven theory. How old is this "Effect" and has there been studies proving it's relevance of today's electorate? Oh and by the way, great job Nate on the interview with Dan Rather. You were also very poised and informative on Democracy Now with Amy Goodman. Thanks to anyone who fields my questions.
Just posting because my word is 'repsol' - a mouthwash for gargling away the nasty taste left by Republican hate ads...
Good interview.
Dan is really rather good too.
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