This weekend, I sat down with Dan Rather in Austin, Texas -- where Obama yardsigns outnumber McCain yard signs by 15-to-1 -- to preview what to watch for on election night, when I'll be joining Dan live from HDNet's set in Washington. Clip follows below the jump.
10.30.2008
Election Night Preview with Dan Rather
@ 6:46 PM
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465 comments
Keep Austin weird!!
Second!
word verification-
cabmic:
are they recording my conversations on my cab rides to work now?
Nate, the POLLS? WHERE ARE THE POLLS?
"seled" = Obama's victory on Tues.
http://coloradoindependent.com/13187/adams-county-quarantines-machine-that-switched-candidates-vote
Diebold Repub machines conviscated for switching votes.
Austin - the San Francisco of the South.
WV: opitl - where you tell the ambulence to take ytou after your tongue gets chopped off.
lol @ opitl
Wow ... I think Lost Cause has jumped the rails a bit.
I am still shocked that people think Race is going to play a larger role in this. I really dont think it will be an issue, if they didnt want Obama they had/have other options.
Here are the internals for the cbs poll:
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/oct08e.trn.pdf
is 52-39 in the four way race.
Thank God this election will be over in less than a week.
is anyone concerned about Syria?
Lost Cause isn't off the rails, he's just a really poor troll.
CBS/NY Times
Obama 52
McCain 41
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08e-all.pdf
shadowguidex profile
Read more about the evil of shadowguidex above.
is it just me or as we get closer to the end so many mccain supporters losing their minds? lost cause obviously has lost more than a cause
Mark Cuban may be meglomaniacal, but he knows where to go to get the best statistical analysis!
You know, I really expected some kind of October Surprise today, but nothing. I figured McCain was holding something to blunt the effect of the infomercial.
wv=coutter?? One letter removed from the AntiChrist!
Lost Cause has many proofs.
"Shadowguidex is a friend of terrorists. He is anti-American to the core. I have proof. Shadowguidex has committed heinous crimes against the United States. Do not believe a thing that evil person says or does."
It's all true. I'm best friends with Hitler, Mussilini, George W. Bush, Dick Cheny, Hirohito, and Joseph Stalin.
WV: alincess - playing texas "hold'em" with your sister.
shadowguidex mingles with Satan
Read more about the evil of shadowguidex above.
We are truly at the end of days The US will elect a minority candidate and BBC News anchor says pussy, twice!
anyways nate since the election is over can we please get your model to look at when Russell Brand will not be first item on british news?
pitshe
I thought Nate was hanging with us on Tuesday night---no he'd Rather be with Dan.
Has any vote-flipping voting machine showed a flip from the Republican to the Democrat yet?
This is insane bullshit.
"You know, I really expected some kind of October Surprise today, but nothing. I figured McCain was holding something to blunt the effect of the infomercial."
I do not think it would be out of character for McCain camp to release the October surprise on November 5.
That clip was great. Maybe I should watch Rather more often.
at least lost cause's name speaks perfectly what he is doing.
it'd be nice for trolls to throw out real reasons to vote for someone else, instead of a wonderful imaginative story they made up before they went to work in the morning.
Obama doesn't need to conduct a purge of conservatives. They'll do just fine with that on their own after McCain loses.
"shadowguidex mingles with Satan "
WTF. hahahahaha. That's hilarious...Satanspace? hehe. Guess I'm not the only shadowguidex out there.
You know, if you rearrange the letter on Satan, you get Santa....
shadowguidex raped my house and burned down my daughter
wv: grava
So you outed my devil worship. Big whoop. I'd bet half the people on here also worship Satan as well. Quit bugging me and stay out of my other profiles.
I miss Austin. Might have to move back. Not quite as liberal as Nate makes it out to be. The city's kinda bi-polar. Chunk of folks as liberal as San Francisco. Very liberal flavors. A separate chunk is as conservative as Dallas though. No way 15 to 1. Travis County (Austin) went for Kerry 56% to 42%. Of course Bush is from Texas. Austin is mos def one of the most liberal groups of White folk in the country. Had to move back to H-town for J-O-B-S.
McCain:
"We're going to go to Washington and we're going to change Washington and I'm going to bring Joe with me."
Joe is a "great American hero" and one of his "role models."
Is this an SNL skit gone horribly wrong?
That is my favorite of your interviews, Nate. Partly because you had more time to give your opinion and more time to hit on more topics. Also, Rather asked some very good questions.
shadowguidex,
What did you do to pick up your very own personal troll?
WV- wabome What McCain hears every time someone quotes him the latest polls.
LOL libs. Wasn't I JUST telling you earlier McCain was stealing the election as we speak? And you didn't listen! LMAO!!
Oklahoma is way more patriotic than your non american blue states.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!
I went to UT. I miss Austin!
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...
I thought Nate was hanging with us on Tuesday night---no he'd Rather be with Dan.
******************
nice :) I like old Dan. CNN or MSNBC could use someone who thinks and just doesn't blather.
And Nate and my WV is cutabl
I will be watching HDNet on election evening! I know Nate and Obama are going to SOCHKE it to them.
WV- sochke
Austin is liberal because of all the folks from California who've moved there.
"ingiewsi" = Inuit for "Palin Sucks"
Yeah!, I have a sockpuppet. I'd like to thank the academy, my mom, God of course (big ups to JC), and um....my agent, and the multitude of fans out there. Peace, love ya. I'm out!
"He will surrender this country to the control of the United Nations"
"He will seek power in a New World Order, hoping to be the ruler of a consortium of nations, not just the United States."
I'm trying to reconcile these two in my head. A United New World Order of Nations? Sounds pretty sweet.
"He is a socialist who will preside over state acquisition and control of all land and the majority of other assets and will dole these items accordingly as he sees fit."
Awesome! The current people distributing assets suck at it; they give them all to themselves. Hussein seems like a pretty fair guy. I'd probably see a bigger share.
Thanks, Lost Cause. $25 more to Obama! Hail Satan!
Hey, I worship Satan because there's no fucking way I'm worshipping the same god as Sarah Palin. Evil or not, Lucifer is my dude.
I bet Obama worships the devil too, so fuck off. You're not convincing anyone here, troll.
I heart Satan and you suck.
Say NO to Kay Hagan. She's a Satanist!
Vote Dole 11/4!
How old are you eve?
you gotta love poor Dan who thinks every poll has to be discounter 5 points from Obama. You see blacks have a -5 polling. Incredible. Kudos to Nate for correcting this idea that is still out there.
[oppefa]
So, what do you guys think the ID advantage Dems have is? On Rasmussen, it's only four points, I think, but in other polling it's much higher. If I had to guess I'd say six points.
Have to pick one, which is more likely? Barack is:
A) Lucipher/Satan/Antichrist
B Second Coming
Tough call for me. I'll go with B.
One thing I noticed about that Fox poll earlier today -- take a look at this.
They report Obama 47, McCain 44, right?
Here's what they say:
The total sample is 1100 registered voters (RV) nationwide, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. A sub-sample of 924 has been defined as likely voters (LV), with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Democrat LV n=379, ±5; Republican LV n=364, ±5; independent LV n=146, ±8 Obama supporters LV n=439, ±5; McCain supporters LV n=405, ±5
Okay, so 924 LV -- Obama gets 439, McCain gets 405. (The rest are undecided or third-party.)
Here's the problem: 439/924 = 47.51, which would round up to 48 for Obama.
And it's not that they just round everything down, either: 405/924 = 43.83%, which they correctly rounded off to 44 for McCain.
So, there you go:
Undeniable FOX manipulation of results. In a word, FRAUD.
What a bunch of disions (WV!).
Jaime,
If I'm not mistaken Rasmussen currently has a 6.5% Dem advantage. I'd put it right about there if I had to guess. DKos uses 9, Fox uses 2 apparently, so it's probably somewhere in the middle of that range.
"What did you do to pick up your very own personal troll?"
Speak clearly and intelligently about the virues of support for Barack Obama?
Or perhaps my sockpuppet is afraid of my clever rapier wit with which I eviscerate my foes.
WV: shesse - as if, enough with the sockpuppets, shesse!!
Dan Rather is from Houston.
Walter Cronkite went to UT-Austin
Anyone notice that Lost Cause sounds a bit like PeteKent (one of them, anyway)?
I especially liked this juxtaposition:
"Barack Obama...is a socialist..."
"He wants to be Emperor Barack HUSSEIN Obama."
I'm pretty sure you can't have it both ways....
["uressemi" - Uressemi, imasemmi, we're all semis.]
Kudos Nate. Very well-spoken.
Of Nate and Rather
A quibble: Nate failed to mention the financial crisis as a reason for McCain's stall in the polls after the RNC.
More importantly: His dismissal of "racial issues" as a factor in this campaign and as a reason for a muting of the Bradley Effect, simply fails to take into account the constant race-baiting that issued from the Obama camp that has poisoned the discourse and drove anti-Obama voters underground. They will, however, pop their heads up long enough to vote on Election Day.
These early voting trends are meaningless -- we are simply seeing the hardcore vote come out, folks who would have voted anyway. There is no indication that there has been a heavy proportion of new voters in the mix.
I have long thought VA could tip to Obama due to its large AA pop, but a loss there can be easily made up with a surprise victory or two in a heartland state. Even Rather was astute enuf to pick up that Obama may underperform in the polls in ED in PA.
Word verification: weiffsym -- blowup doll that quants and nerds must console themselves with as real women are not available to them
Yeah, now that's one freaking combo I'd love to serve - Barack Obama and Satan the Devil. Kinda like Vader and the Emperor.
A United World Order of Nations would clean things up. First things first, I want the fucking Christians and other conservatives in this country barbequed. Fucking tormented and executed. Complete genocide of their entire "species" is the only answer.
Hail Barack! Hail Lucifer! May all conservatives burn and rot in pain and malice.
Is the Emperor from Star Wars
A) Karl Rove
B) Dick Cheney
"Drove the anti-Obama voters underground"? Then who is doing all the trolling and posting on Fox and Redstate?
My sockpuppet is a Satan worshiper? That's neato. I personally don't like to play make believe with mythical super-villains like Satan. I think we have enough real life villains like George junior, Dick Cheney, and John McCain.
Nate,
WOW!! Best interview ever. Congrats on your well-deserved national recognition.
to preview what to watch for on election night
Haven't watched the video yet, but isn't the answer Indiana?
Dan Rather looks like he wants to eat you, Nate.
According to your personal troll and sockpuppet you just might be the first devil worshiping atheist.
I would like to meet someone who can reconcile that.
My sockpuppet is 100% right. I agree wholeheartedly with him. He should get it right though. It's a United *New* World Order of Nations. Not like that Old Order.
Hmmm...
My WV is getting smarter. I wonder what that says about the caliber of my posts.
Anyway, good appearance. However, you appear to be infected with Blinky McBlinkitis, the cruel ailment that afflicted the good Senator He-Who-Often-Takes-Off-But-Only-Occasionally-Lands (I just gave him a Native American name for his service to the BIA and its later incarnations).
I think Lost Cause may have just jumped the shark.
Holy crap, Nate - you were in Austin, my home town? The same weekend I was there??!
I'm not stalking you, honest.
word verifier: apper. ...itif?
Nate, really superb interview. You are a natural at this!
Well done!
9NEWS POLL:
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (LOUISIANA)
MCCAIN: 43%
OBAMA: 40%
UNDECIDED/WON'T SAY: 17%
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 4.5%
Damn Julie---did we just switch web sites.
Hey Nate - Anywhere online where we can watch you live on election night?
Thanks for the reference to the CDC report on cell phone only stats from your earlier post.
I teach at the University of Oregon and conducted an impromptu poll of my own in class yesterday. I asked my students if they were planning to vote. Most had already and only one was not registered. I then inquired how many of them had a land line at their residence. ONLY ONE QUARTER OF THEM DID. Those were local residents who still lived at home.
Granted this mini survey is skewed towards college students but if this is happening on campuses across America then I think we're in for a big surprise on Nov. 4th.
Yay I have a puppet too now! Woot!
Okay, this comment thread has officially jumped the shark. I'm out of here until the polls are up.
Real America will never elect a fundamentalist muslim terrorist communist socialist redistributionist like Hussein!!
I'm the real Julie. I'm outta here until the 14-year-old sock puppets leave. Yech.
PENNSYLVANIA
2000: PA is 3.8% bluer than rest of country
2004: PA is 5.0% bluer than rest of country
2008: PA is polling 3.6% bluer than rest of country
BOTTOMLINE: Folks like CNN are interviewing people that are so called experts that know less than I do or many of us. Pennsylvania will be bluer than the rest of the country November 4th. Probably 99.99% probability of that. I'll bet anyone any amount of money and give thme 10 to 1 odds that Pennsylvania is bluer than the total popular vote. People that say otherwise are full of it.
Is the Emperor from Star Wars
A) Karl Rove
B) Dick Cheney
Neither. Pope Benedict XVI.
Am I the only one not seeing a video clip to watch?
Crab alley said:Anywhere online where we can watch you live on election night?
Is that with Julie?
Wow...
Is it a safe assumption that all, or nearly all, of the sockpuppets are one particularly lonely monkey? A monkey with a misogynistic streak? And an underwhelming ability to impersonate women?
If Pennsylvania is over and done for McCain, this election is finished. I think instead of following the campaign, I'm going to go on about a 4 or 5-day masturbation bender until next Tuesday. That'll have me feeling pretty subdued for when BO is elected.
Lost Cause reminds me, has anyone heard a recent Republican argument that isn't a strawman? Even amongst Republican leadership and intellectuals everything is exaggerated to the nth degree at best or simple name calling at worst. Are there any WF Buckley's out there anymore? I disagreed with him wholeheartedly, but at least he could make a logical tempered argument.
WV - extrax: (n.) A running track for the constipated.
No, the sock puppet is probably Ashley Todd.
Every thread we have at least one person who says something like, "this poll puts Obama at +X.Y, and I reckon that's about right."
Your gut feeling about which polls are right is basically worthless! Otherwise there'd be no point in this site...
drateria - somewhere you can eat lunch and curse at the same time
After the election Nate needs to invest in some quality software that enforces unique names.
"Lost Cause reminds me, has anyone heard a recent Republican argument that isn't a strawman? Even amongst Republican leadership and intellectuals everything is exaggerated to the nth degree at best or simple name calling at worst. Are there any WF Buckley's out there anymore? I disagreed with him wholeheartedly, but at least he could make a logical tempered argument."
That's what you get when your party embraces the anti-intellectual ideals. You fall further and further into the twilight zone of rational thought. The remaining adherents to the conservative cause are at a serious lack of cognitive logic.
david,
You'll just have trolls sign up with new names. You can't control it unless there's a moderator.
How come the snapshot if the election were held today (6.4) and the projection number for Nov 4th (5.4) are not getting closer? Surely whatever trend there is for the election to get closer as the election approaches would start to get narrower by now?
Yeah, a moderator is deleting the nasty sock puppet posts!
thank you!
34 out of 34 polls in the last 5 weeks show OBama ahead in Pennsylvania. If Obama loses Pennsylvania and because of it, lose the election, I expect riots everywhere. It is close to impossible to see any scenario where mcCain wins Pennsylvania. The polls are not universally wrong. History is not universally wrong. The so-called Bradley Effect would have to be about 5%. This means within the Pennsyltucky part, where less than 1/3 of the folks live, about 20% have to be saying they'll vote for Obama and instead vote for McCain. That is impossible.
"You'll just have trolls sign up with new names. You can't control it unless there's a moderator."
That is true but it solves the sock puppet issue. No more posting nasty crap under other regular posters names.
YUK !
disgusting comments
PA will be blue
Aww my comment was deleted, but I understand why. I was only quoting, though. Not being nasty. :)
I agree with VA being the one to watch. After that, I'd watch FL, NC, MO, and IN. I think Obama has all other toss-up states in the bank.
I'd watch MT, ND, and AZ too but only out of curiosity/cherry topping the sundae.
See you folks when the polls go up...
Did anyone else mention that part way down the new New York Times/CBS poll (O'Bamagh up by 12 points), there was a follow-up question:
If you've already voted, who did you vote for?
O -- 55
M -- 35
Other -- 4
No answer -- 6
Great news, I would say!
Nate I hope you're enjoying your 15 minutes more than Joe the Troll err pretend plumber.
"So shadowguide, you'd vote for Godless Kay Hagan over Patriot Liddy Dole?"
So petekent, you'd vote for Patriot Aaron Burr over Godless Thomas Jefferson?
You know he was an atheist, right? Many of our founding fathers were atheists. you knew that, right? anyway, I'd vote for Kay Hagan if I lived in NC, yes, because her policies are more in line with mine.
WV: kingrano - A champion kickbozer?
we all have sock-puupets. the site is being taken over. that's unfortunate.
Louisiana Poll (WAFB/Loyola University)
McCain 43
Obama 40
????? 17
WV-Outump - "I can outump Tim Welke any day of the week."
@jackleone:
Lots of them. They're all endorsing Obama thanks to the 90-day game of grabass that has been the McCain campaign.
I sincerely hope this is the year where the folks in charge over at GOP-central realize that the knuckle-dragging theocons have outlived their usefulness, and that they let Palin lead them off into third-party obscurity.
They have eight years, give or take, to get their shit in order and come up with an ideologically consistent platform instead of a rough grafting of power-brokers and easily led thugs.
Hmmm well I would say that all thi talk about Obama needs to be [insert random number between 2 and 10] points up on election morning in case of 'the Bradley effect' or whatever else you want to call it deserves to be shown up for what it is, and those trolls or whatever else who almost take joy in repeating the myth should be embarrased that they take joy in the fact that the US is still racist.
I like how cutting Nate can be in text, but is so mild-mannered on TV.
Wow, Nate is really becoming a MSM phenom...
I really liked Nate's comment that the racial issues aren't such a big deal anymore: crime, welfare, affirmative action. Rather's eyebrows shot up in response, these are clearly still big issues with him, but Nate is correct in pointing out that Clinton largely took these off the table.
" Real Joe said...
PA will be blue"
...whew... I was afraid your surprise was PA going red..
I have a good news!
34/34 polls in Pennsylvania in the last 5 weeks have Obama ahead
17/17 polls in Virginia in the last 4 weeks have Obama ahead
McCain has to win one of the 2.
There are no epublicans in power in anyway to steal either of them. McCain cannot win either. McCain cannot win the election.
I really hope the immature sock-puppeteer comments stop here. It's a shame that a couple of assholes ruin the entire thing for everyone.
shadow,
Proof about Thomas Jefferson = atheist? Or the other founding fathers?
Or are you lying?
At least we know now that Nate reads these comments!
stinchi= McCain's chances at this pt.
Two of the funniest lines this election:
“We can’t promise you fancy touch-screens or glitzy graphics, but we can promise you that we’ll let our guests finish their sentences.”
--Dan Rather
“I think there’s been too much emphasis on polls.”
--Nate Silver
But seriously, Nate, you look great. Just stop touching your neck.
My secret wish: AZ flips blue.
"Proof about Thomas Jefferson = atheist? Or the other founding fathers?"
Yeah he was, there's tons of biographies about him, probably some in your local library. He was a very well known intellectual atheist, there is no dispute about that since his own writings about the subject are rather lengthy.
@grim
It'd be a gross oversimplification to call him an atheist. The Wikipedia section is, for once, actually pretty decent on this point.
Wasn't Jefferson a Deist?
First that FOX poll--
Does anyone else verify my calculation of the weightings--
42.6 Dems
41 Repubs
That is a stretch!
Second, I think the polls would have still been way out for Obama (like consistenly +8-10) if his campaign had been more forceful with answering the drip, drip of "spread the wealth"
I understand the call they made, "we will monitor the situation because we don't want to feed the whole issue of distribution of wealth. We'll respond if the numbers go really south" Most Americans don't understand the issue its detail...
BUT, polls have shown for many years that Americans by about 70% think that the rich have become too enriched and that it ultimately is not good for either our economy (which is consumer driven - when the little guy has cash the big guy will profit anyway) nor is is good for our democracy. Concetrated wealth kinda skews all policies to, uhhh, you guessed it, the wealthy. And so the the cycle continues on and on.
Wealth/Power concentration is the kryptonite of Democracy.
I think it was Supreme Court Justice Brandeis that said, "You can wealth concentrated in the hands of a few or you can have democracy... you can't have both at the same time."
Dan Rather looks at Nate with such surprise, I imagine he's thinking "My, this young whippersnapper is quite a crackerjack!"
Can someone tell me why ALL of the vote-switching problems involve Democratic votes switching to Republican? Is there a electronic bias towards conservatives, or is there something more sinister going on?
twitec
Okay, now I'm just getting greedy, but look at the stats in the early voting
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
In La, it's 58.5% Dem, and 36.3% AA. Admittedly only 13.6% of voters, but still....seems like good #s for Obama.
Does anyone know if there are stats for the # of AA voters in the various states in other presidential election years?
Nate, you are at the forefront of a movement that FINALLY kills the anti-intellectualism that's out there. Nerds on TV!
Dunayalc: An Australian mammal known for stealing beer.
Currently the easiest path to 270 is:
Kerry states (NH is 93%; PA, WI and MN are 99% and all others are 100%)
IA - 100%
NM - 98%
VA - 94%
I like them odds, although I'd love to get VA to 100%
"Can someone tell me why ALL of the vote-switching problems involve Democratic votes switching to Republican? Is there a electronic bias towards conservatives, or is there something more sinister going on?"
I think it is well established that the bits that roam all computer systems are pro-McCain. ;)
What exactly do you mean by "electronic bias"?
Computing systems do exactly what they are told to do, they have no bias.
I take it in the ass and fuck animals. Why do people frown on that?
I take it in the ass and fuck animals. Why do people frown on that?
I take it in the ass and fuck animals. Why do people frown on that?
@research-china.org
This is going to sound terribly snarky, but think for a moment about what the word 'switch' means, and what a voting machine might do that would constitute 'switching'.
My husband and I just got home from early voting. We queued for maybe 30-40 minutes (starting at 6.40pm) then he voted while I mooched about the library (I'm not a US citizen). That's one in the bank for Obama & Jim Martin here in Cherokee County, GA. :)
You're getting better at interviewing. I just have one tip: sit up straight.
Go Nate! (and good luck election night with Dan rather, at least you know he won't try and interruot you!)
Incidentally, my understanding is that Jefferson was anything but an atheist, but certainly was a seperatist, and believed that the state and religion shouldbe kept as far apart from each other as humanly possible.
Nate's gotta comment on FOX's fictional poll later on, right?
Thomas Jefferson was a deist, but if you smack yourself in the forehead with a hammer, it looks kind of like atheist.
Deists believe that God exists and created the world but doesn't interfere with worldly affairs any more.
Virginians are somewhat conservative, but we hate dirty, divisive campaigns. Just ask George Allen. VA is safe for Obama.
Something tells me that Nate might disable to comment feature soon. :(
Robert Byrd endroses Obama.
Racist?
Wish I got HDNet! I'm sure Nate's election night analysis will blow the MSM out of the water.
Oh well...guess I'll have to settle for MSNBC and Chuck Todd...
Now, now, don't sockpuppet Nate!
"David said...
"You know, I really expected some kind of October Surprise today, but nothing. I figured McCain was holding something to blunt the effect of the infomercial."
I do not think it would be out of character for McCain camp to release the October surprise on November 5."
As through-the-lookingglass as this entire election has been, dare we even joke? What's to stop McCain from trying to lobby for "faithless electors"?????
Thomas Jefferson was often accused of being an atheist. He certainly wasn't a Christian. He hated religion, though he might have believed in God.
Why do people always use the past to make or disprove a point?
We have a tremendous amount of gratitude to the insight of the founding fathers, yes, but the world and more specifically America is such a different place today. I never understand this. To me it's apples and oranges. Even they didn't get a lot of things right (e.g. amendments). As life changes so do people's views (e.g. slavery) and therefore, the ways we live and govern, even if only slightly, but I don't see how it's something you can use to argue today with.
But what the hell do I know.
"I teach at the University of Oregon and conducted an impromptu poll of my own in class yesterday. I asked my students if they were planning to vote. Most had already and only one was not registered. I then inquired how many of them had a land line at their residence. ONLY ONE QUARTER OF THEM DID. Those were local residents who still lived at home. Granted this mini survey is skewed towards college students but if this is happening on campuses across America then I think we're in for a big surprise on Nov. 4th."
Not necessarily. For any cell phone poll effect to take place, the youths with a cell phone only must be voting in a different way as youths with a land-line. If land-line youths are a good representation of all youths, then the poll rebalancing will take the low response rate into account and will give an accurate representation.
Kerry states (NH is 93%; PA, WI and MN are 99% and all others are 100%)
IA - 100%
NM - 98%
VA - 94%
Kerry + IA + VA = 272. NM not really needed.
Looking at the States which polls close after 10pm ET on Election Day. (AK,CA,HI,ID,IA,MT,NV,ND,OR,UT,and WA). Obama can reach the 270ev mark before 10pm if he wins the following states.
7pmET (VA,and VT)is called for Obama.
7pmET (OH)is called for Obama.
8pmET (CT,DC,DE,FL,IL,ME,MD,MA,MO,NH,NJ,PA,)
830pmET(NC)is called for Obama.
9pmET(CO,MI,MN,NM,NY,RI,WI,).
10pmET(IA,and NV is called for Obama).
10pmET is going to be John McCain's bed time.
The polls?! Where are the polls?!
Why do people always use the past to make or disprove a point?
We have a tremendous amount of gratitude to the insight of the founding fathers, yes, but the world and more specifically America is such a different place today. I never understand this. To me it's apples and oranges. Even they didn't get a lot of things right (e.g. amendments). As life changes so do people's views (e.g. slavery) and therefore, the ways we live and govern, even if only slightly, but I don't see how it's something you can use to argue today with.
But what the hell do I know.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
According to: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Over half (52.%) of registered voters have already voted in North Carolina, with the Party Id split: Dems: 53.3% Rep: 32.5% No/Oth: 13.3%.
Considering the CNN exit polling for 2004 North Carolina was: Dems: 39% Rep: 40% No/Oth: 21%
Can we assume that Obama is in very very good shape considering more than half the vote has already occurred with these party splits.
darÃo said...
Robert Byrd endroses Obama.
Racist?
Robert endorsed Obama some months ago
Robert was in the KKK in the 1940's
The fox poll was "Hillaryous"
I've taken to posting comments on Fox against their criticism of Obama saying:
" Obama will be our next president and it is un-American to criticize a president in a time of war."
You've gotta speak to people in their own language.
Congrats Nate! You have really done a great job and kept up all sane during this election!!
alyssa:
We have to be guided by the intent of the Constitution unless and until amendments are made. The religious beliefs of the Founders are one way to discern their intent.
@Alyssa
The somewhat paradoxical point is that Jefferson would have agreed with you wholeheartedly.
What Jefferson wrote about civil society and how it should be governed, though, is some of the wisest thinking committed to paper. It at least deserves to be read and considered very carefully.
Adrian How would you be able to determine if the land line youth are representative of all youths?
In South Austin McCain/Palin yard signs are scarce. But we've saved every one of the March 4 Obama primary signs and still have them out. More than 15-to-1 in South Austin! The Travis County Democratic Party headquarters is a beehive of activity and they have a steady stream of customers buying signs, T-shirts, fridge magnets, etc. We do not yet dare to hope for a Blue Texas, but perhaps we can elect a Democratic legislature.
Excellent interview Nate, as always. That's why many people have been pouring to this site -- you are not just another partisan gasbag. There is substance to these entries.
P.S. Nate, your eyes look tired; have you been getting sleep lately?
Hey kids! How about some Ratherisms?
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=p-rketGX9uM
Terrific job on election coverage, Nate. Bravo! You really did a heckuva job this cycle. Wishing you all the best.
Obama's TV show reached about 50% more people (30 million to 20 million) than watched the conclusion of the World Series last night (which was the highest rated of the broadcasts).
Fox new what it was doing with selling the half hour before the game - they got a great lead in for it.
Things like that get Rupert Murdoch's attention, as well as Olbermann's and Maddow's ratings.
(persenti - a William Morris agent in Teheran)
OK,I do not usually put much stock in poll results from unknown sources especially when they indicate large #'s of UNDs at this late date in RED states trending toward blue...
BUT - about 3 weeks ago the early indicators in small polls started to show that first NC & IN & GA were in play, then same thing in ND & MT about 2 weeks ago, then last week AZ started to look tight which have all since been confirmed.
Nate's simulations now have all those states as potential pickups for Obama
tonight, LA may be trending as 'in play'... M43 - O40 LOUISIANA fer crissakes !
'WWL Poll: Obama-McCain in virtual tie in Louisiana'
@ http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html
"On the question of favorability, Louisiana voters give the two candidates pretty even marks. Sen. Obama registers 47 percent favorable, with Sen. McCain, 45 percent, meaning it is another statistical tie."
Anyone who knows anything at all about gambling online, can you explain what's going on at Intrade the last 24 hours? 83.6 Obama 16.7 McCain.
Nice job Nate! That was your best media appearance yet!
Keep up the good work.
Any chance Nate will be running for political office? He gets into it and seems like a smart fellow.
I was wondering about that too Mc9 Why the uptick
Thanks for the comments loralee and badger.
Yes, I completely agree but it seems that people (ahem, conservatives) get so hung up on the founding fathers, they don't see any other options but being inside that box and it's short-sighted and in the end seems more harmful than good.
I guess I don't view the world in absolutes because as trite as it may be, the only thing constant in life is change, and the ability to change/adapt is one of humanity's greatest attributes and has kept life (on all levels) growing and evolving for millions of years.
Whoa, sorry to get all philosophical. Blah.
even ol' Karl ROVE is still predicting an Obama EV virtual landslide:
Electoral College
311 Obama (+5 from 10/26)
157 McCain (0 from 10/26)
70 Toss-Up (-5 from 10/26) = FL, IN, MO, MT, NC & ND
@ http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0047/McCain-Obama_10_29_08.pdf
I figured that now in the last week, he would try to spin a last second Mac surge - or at least something better than more slippage from last week...
B. Franklin was more of a classical deist.
Jefferson appreciated judaeo christian concepts of morality, but only insofar as they pertained to the secular. He is said to have read the bible frequently, but would physically cut out the parts he considered mystical. Jefferson was probably a deist ultimately, but it was not likely an important aspect of his life.
Washington was more of a "warm diest", or as I once saw him described, a "rational theist".
None of the aforementioned gentlemen were Christian. Such an incredible distortion of history that so many believe the US was founded as a Christian nation. Christians were a significant minority among the founding fathers.
The problem with defining Jefferson as an atheist is that he was all over the map when it came to any sort of higher power. I think the biggest problem he had, aside from the overwhelming societal pressure to believe in some sort of god, was the lack of anything even approaching a universal replacement for creation/human life. Not coincidentally, Jefferson was not alive when Darwin's theory was written. From my knowledge of Jefferson, I think he would have wholeheartedly embraced evolution as truth, and would have explicitly rejected god. Unfortunately, Jefferson never had the chance, and we're left with the "was he or wasn't he" arguments.
WV - chillhon, what Palin tells the first dude when he sees the polls
Blogger SlipperySlope said...
In South Austin McCain/Palin yard signs are scarce. But we've saved every one of the March 4 Obama primary signs and still have them out. More than 15-to-1 in South Austin!
There just aren't many signs out in Austin. Not many bumper stickers compared to 2004, either. (I kept a count, so I know.)
@mc9
Likely people starting to cash in...which is what I would do if I bought obama at 60 or under...
Where will you be, what are you doing next Tuesday?
In a studio with Rather? Liveblogging? Please tell.
@julie: You asked "Does anyone know if there are stats for the # of AA voters in the various states in other presidential election years?"
Go right back to that GMU website and you'll find the data there.
Secret word: boopygra
cnn.com:
Poll Update: Voters having 'buyer's remorse?'
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Um, no.
Alyssa you also have to remember the founding fathers were not a monolithic group--as today they had their liberals and conservatives. Heard Benny Franklin was a real party animal.
@games
I usually balk at conspiracy theories but can't argue with that.
By extension: Obama won Fox poll by 3.68% - round up to 4%
chedr: cheese if you're Governor of Alaska
Faux News is at it again. Now they are trying to make the race look closer even when the numbers, save for the sampling is exactly the same as last week. Great pickup by Andrew Sullivan.
"How Fox Misleads
This is a slam-dunk in a way. Fox is touting and Drudge is hyping a new poll showing a dramatic tightening in the presidential race. Here's their report today:
As the candidates make their closing arguments before the election, the race has tightened with Barack Obama now leading John McCain by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Thursday. Last week Obama led by 49-40 percent among likely voters.
Seems pretty convincing, right? I mean: they use the same pollster. But when you look at the internals, you find the following demographics. Last week's poll had a sample with the following mix:
Democrats 401, ±5 percentage points; Republicans 345, ±5; independents 148, ±8 Obama supporters 462, ±5; McCain supporters 370, ±5
This week's:
Democrat LV 379, ±5; Republican LV 364, ±5; independent LV 146, ±8, Obama supporters LV 439, ±5; McCain supporters LV 405, ±5"
Alyssa, need to remember the founding fathers were not monolithic as today they had their liberals and conservatives. Heard Benny Franklin was a real party animal.
I just got your update but no polls. Strange..
RAZ has dropped IN from 'Lean GOP' & MT from 'Likely GOP' into the 'tossup'
260 Safe & Likely DEM including IA, NM & PA
+53 Lean DEM including CO, FL, NH & VA
----
313 EVs
----
+65 Tossups = IN, MO, MT, NC, NV & OH
lookin' real good with less than 5 days & nights to go !!!
word of the day - 'losess'
OpenID mc9cain said...
Anyone who knows anything at all about gambling online, can you explain what's going on at Intrade the last 24 hours? 83.6 Obama 16.7 McCain.
Well, it brought it back in line with IEM, which last week sometime (I think) had actually fallen behind Intrade after having been ahead of it for most of the fall.
I hate that Nate's had to impose moderation. Thanks a lot sock puppets!
"Christians were a significant minority among the founding fathers."
I say this as an agnostic, completely secular former Jew. This is a laughably retarded statement.
I still would love to see what Nate's prjection for 2004 would have been.
Oh, I know you just LOVED Austin!
You should've told me you were coming. As a baseball player (short reliever) who watches more than he plays, you and your sabermetric pals are like my heroes. My crew and I would've painted our chests and rallied on 6th street. =)
So Mysticlaker, the uptick for McCain would be people buying in at a low price looking for a long shot win?
"Comment moderation has been enabled. All comments must be approved by the blog author."
nice to see that now - long overdue IMHO
worth the brief 'pause' before the comment appears in the thread
POLLSTER had to go as far as 'comment disabling' for much of the day to try to get control of their poster's behaviour...
also they started to permanently ban certain of the most egregious serial offenders
Alyssa said,
"Why do people always use the past to make or disprove a point?
We have a tremendous amount of gratitude to the insight of the founding fathers, yes, but the world and more specifically America is such a different place today. I never understand this. To me it's apples and oranges. Even they didn't get a lot of things right (e.g. amendments). As life changes so do people's views (e.g. slavery) and therefore, the ways we live and govern, even if only slightly, but I don't see how it's something you can use to argue today with."
Alyssa,
The strict constructionist views (or its variants) of conservatives like Scalia and Thomas, which they use in a cherry-picking way to support their political views, has had the effect of politicizing our understanding of and attitudes towards the Founding Fathers. In a strange irony (since conservatives claim to respect the Constitution and its makers), we end up with a situation in which the Founding Fathers are used by conservatives and viewed by liberals as hindrances and obstructions to non-conservative views. Your perfectly reasonable opinion is a good example of the effects that conservative thought has had on our attitudes towards the Founding Fathers.
Great job, Nate. You presented your opinions very nicely. Thanks for what you are doing!
I got an email from the Obama campaign today that struck me as weird, even suspicious. It claimed that McCain and RNC have more cash than Obama & DNC.
Directed me to this site:
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/RNCadvantage2?source=20081030_MM_D2
which actually looks legitimate.
So I'm wondering if the email is a fraud, or is "cash" the key word? That would be pretty manipulative. They're not really short of money, are they? What the hell is this about? Any thoughts?
Nate, is the slight tightening of the polls that we are seeing partially explained by the removal -- from the pool of the remaining voters -- of the early voters, who have apparently consisted of a higher percentage of Dems/Obamas in many of the key states?
Leaving a more evenly-divided bunch of Dems/Reps/Undecideds among those who have not yet voted?
Are the polls "capturing" not just those likely voters who haven't YET voted, but those for-sure voters who have ALREADY voted?
Thanks for the great work!
alyssa:
Given that you accept that:
1] The founding fathers were patriots
2] Not all the founding fathers were christians
It follows naturally that
3] you can be a non-christian patriot.
Now and then, that's a useful line of argument to drag out - usually when arguing with conservatives.
The founding fathers are a good choice because 1] is nigh-on unassailable, and 2] is decently documented. The argument would of course still work with a more recent person if you could dig up a non-christian patriot that whoever you're talking to would agree was both - good luck with that.
mule rider said...
Any chance Nate will be running for political office? He gets into it and seems like a smart fellow.
President Nate silver 2024 ?
Nate! You're on Chicago Tonight right now, with that annoying Phil Ponce! This is the worst show and yet I ALWAYS watch it.
Are those new glasses? I don't think I like them.
Hi Nate!
Geez, you're everywhere Nate. You're turning into quite the pundit.
Too bad that I won't be able to watch it. I have begun to miss the old kind of coverage, where you have neutral reporters instead of shouting pundits. Facts, instead of opinion. And people can actually finish their sentences. And I am happy to see Nate's success. I might be missing someone, but you could be the first internet blogger to burst into the mainstream media sector - something that all the other bloggers haven't achieved (though maybe they didn't want to...who knows...)
anyone else think that mccain had a terrible day today?
im thinking mccain dropping two points in polls for today. that joe the plumber stunt has got to make people think that mccain is becoming a real joke.
@mc9cain and Nam Vet Joe:
I don't actually know anything about gambling online, but I'm going to guess that people are perceiving McCain's win chances as trending upwards, so they want to place their bets while those chances are still relatively low. Thus locking in a big ca$$$h payout if McCain actually wins.
Could that be it?
Naturally, such people will lose horribly on Tuesday, but their financial losses will be more than offset by the Obama tax cut in most cases.
>> you gotta love poor Dan who thinks every poll has to be discounter 5 points from Obama. You see blacks have a -5 polling. Incredible. Kudos to Nate for correcting this idea that is still out there.
Back off Dan, Mr. Rathers is a class act. There are two excellent reasons for him to ask that:
1) he was there and saw it happen (and it happened, more than once too)
2) he's there to ask things his viewers want to ask
3) he's there to ask the questions that will lead to things that'll inform his viewers, so they know more coming out than they went going in
That idea is out there, that black candidates have a burden in the polls to overcome. Even if it is a dated assumption, especially if it is a dated assumption, it is definitely Dan's role to ask the question. Even if he had, in his reach for the interview, came to the inkling that it wasn't true.
I got an email from the Obama campaign today that struck me as weird, even suspicious. It claimed that McCain and RNC have more cash than Obama & DNC.
Directed me to this site:
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/RNCadvantage2?source=20081030_MM_D2
which actually looks legitimate.
So I'm wondering if the email is a fraud, or is "cash" the key word? That would be pretty manipulative. They're not really short of money, are they? What the hell is this about? Any thoughts?
I received the same message. RNC+McCain finances has always been near DNC+Obama, and Obama has been blowing through the cash, so, yeah, I think it's plausible that they'd like more money—how desperate they might be is hard to say, though I'm sure they'll put it to good use if you send them money.
This is a test of moderation.
Make that 3 reasons. :)
bye to PeteKent and such bottom floss.
Funny timing, Mark Blumenthal at Pollster got rid of one of their more odious trolls "boomshak" today.
All of which of course is GREAT NEWS for...
moderation? huh?
Well, hopefully my union has HDnet. Headed to our local office since I don't have a TV, and for the chance to celebrate with fellow travelers, of a sort.
Nice article on FL early voting:
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1855049,00.html
"...a WSVN-Suffolk University poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 60% to 40% margin among early voters... "
Hillsborough County early voting results are increasing for each day:
http://www.votehillsborough.org/
93,295 votes cast in-person, out of 706,698 registered.
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