10.10.2008

Does McCain Have Cooties?

This is pretty interesting:

[Norm] Coleman told reporters that he would not be appearing at a planned rally with McCain this afternoon. Could it be McCain's sliding polling numbers in Minnesota? His attacks on Obama? Coleman said he needs the time to wo
rk on suspending his own negative ads.

"Today," he said, "people need hope and a more positive campaign is a start."
There are at least three groups of Republicans that might have an interest in distancing themselves from John McCain. Firstly, purple-state moderates like Coleman and Gordon Smith who don't like the campaign's tone. Secondly, the anti-bailout economic populists in the House who might be looking ahead to 2010 and 2012. And thirdly, true conservatives who never trusted McCain that much to begin with.

Far more so than Obama, McCain is dependent on the goodwill of fellow Republicans. With McCain having opted for public financing, RNC funds are an important part of his advertising budget. Because he's way behind Obama on McCain-branded field offices and ground operatives, he is depending on assistance from state and local party organizations. Republican enthusiasm lags behind that of Democrats, and so volunteer resources are scarcer; conservative activists will need to decide if they're going to make phone calls to support McCain or to help save their local Republican Congressman.

The further that McCain falls in the polls, the worse these conflicts become. And it won't help when the campaign is putting out statements like this one (McCain "blew up" the bailout?) and this one (it's Obama's fault that some very small minority of McCain supporters have taken to making violent statements?), which won't pass the media's smell test and reek of stress, sleep deprivation, and low morale in Crystal City.

810 comments

ialex said...

I heard that in addition to the 30 minute block Obama is buying later this month he will have another 30 minutes on November 3...

Real Joe said...



Palin : Obama supports unlimited abortions

Palin Rally Live

http://us.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2

Charles Crook said...

Buying another 30 minutes sounds like "just-in-case" preparation.

Real Joe said...

Palin mob is fired up

eve said...

These wingnuts who use Arab and Muslim as an insult are so fricking stupid.

Maybe someone could tell that woman in the McCain rally who said Obama is Arab as if that was a bad thing, that at one time the Irish Catholics were held in great contempt in this country. Count them among many groups of people ostracized in this country over the years. The ignorant are constantly looking for groups to demonize.

eve said...

Palin firing up the crowd over abortion?

Brilliant. That should move a few more independents to Obama.

The people that think that's a big issue are already voting for McCain. Majority of folks think it should remain legal.

ialex said...

I bet the dumbfucks don't even know that Arabs are white people, too!

Eric said...

McCain is calling off the attack because it was backfiring, not because he has any decency.

Palin has rabies. I don't expect her to change a thing.

John said...

John McCain said that there is a "special place in Hell" for the people who smeared his family in the 2000 primary, and then he hired one of them to help him smear Obama.

That was the final verdict on McCain's "honor."

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

No terrorist comments by Palin this time. Guess word has tricled down to her.

justsomeguy said...

Charles-

I think Obama has money to burn. He also is trying to buy Fox and ABC. Fox has to see the World Series schedule but they are likely to agree.

DCM in FL said...

need a new thread...

well, more GOPers are jumping ship & going overboard as the SS McCain/Palin continues to sink...

today the son of William F. Buckley got on the Obama bandwagon !

'Sorry, Dad, I'm Voting for Obama'

by Christopher Buckley

@ http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama

that has gotta hurt... for John McCain !!!

timschel said...

They're going to take the weekend off. I fully expect the terrorist comments to begin again next week.

Real Joe said...

any polls coming out today ?

justsomeguy said...

Weekends have been very light on polling and are likely to stay that way until the weekend before the election.

Do we even ned to vote? Let's just give to Obama and get Bush out sooner.

Real Joe said...



Obama ad: 'Smears are all McCain has left'


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/11/obama-ad-smears-are-all-mccain-has-left/


Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Real Joe:
Sounds like you are ready to come over from the "Dark Side"

Charles Crook said...

Buying time on the evening before the election allows a campaign to have a last word to a national audience. The time will be well-spent to talk to any voters STILL undecided on Nov 3.

Same thing applies to the previous air time purchase; Obama continues the national coverage that the debates provided.

A tactic only possible with massive fund-raising.

Chun said...

Palin : Obama supports unlimited abortion

As opposed to a limited number of them?

"Sorry ma'am you are only allowed two in your lifetime your gonna have to take this one to term.""

justsomeguy said...
This post has been removed by the author.
justsomeguy said...

McCain Palin folks are scary. Try this:

"CALLING OBAMA A RESPECTABLE FAMILY MAN THAT WE NEED NOT FEAR IS OUTRAGEOUS!

McCAIN TAKING THE ABUSE AND INSULTS FROM OBAMA AND REFUSING TO FIGHT BACK IS OUTRAGEOUS!

WE’RE NOT TURNING THE WHITE HOUSE KEYS OVER TO BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA- NOT IF WE ON FR, RUSH, HANNITY AND FOX HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT!"


That is just so deluded and scary I don't know where to start.

markedman said...

real joe doesnt' answer me


huh

Real Joe said...



Who Is The Real John McCain?

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/10/who_is_the_real.html

markedman said...

VA CON, will you email me please?

makersmark78@gmail.com

Real Joe said...

markedman said...
real joe doesnt' answer me



i don't approve these incidents

even if i vote for him he can't win

i don't think the "bradly effect" can save him

newsfromOH said...

Just visited redstate.com (always fun to see what they're spewing). Ad banner there was for Evercleanse--basically major laxatives.

That's a huge softball thrown over the plate . . . too many great lines to even begin . . .

prairiecomm said...

palin has slipped the leash

Real Joe said...

Nate :

New thread please :-)

adam said...

Some McCain/Palin supporters are truly scary and the biggest reason why people will balk at voting Republican. Who wants to be in the same club as these folks?

Marx was right said...

McCain never was a "hero." He was never a "man of honor." Read the Rolling Stone piece, people. The guy has been a manipulative insecure selfish jerk his ENTIRE LIFE. "Maverick" is code for self-centered blowhard.

I'm glad he came out and denounced the language that was being used at these rallies--it would be horrifying if violence had erupted because of it. So it's good he tamped down on it.

But a man of "honor" would never have gone down that road in the first place.

This myth of McCain as some kind of mavericky work-across-the-aisle get-things-done honorable man in service to his country needs to be dispelled.

meconella said...

Sarah Palin will remain on the ticket for several reasons.

1- The Repubs do not think there is anything wrong with abusing power. Havent the past 8 years shown us that?

2- Sarah will never step down voluntarily - she is really getting off on being in the public eye. And she is setting herself up for running 2012.

3-Removing her would be putting country first. If country was first, she never would have been chosen.

4- No one would come to McCain events if Sarah was gone.

Besides, McCain thinks she's cute.

markymark said...

Wow Ras has made me a bit more positive about this whole thing, for the first time this week. Lets hope 'single figures' in Gallup means 9 points. In my mind, the true number is probably Obama up by 8 and any variance from that is down to MOE and/or noise. And thats fairly settled as well. Overall, McCain has never found a consistent message that resonants and gives a vision of what he will do as president. (Remember when the media was saying to Obama 'Yes but what does change mean?' Well thats the question McCain has never been able to answer 'What is it that you will do?')

DCM in FL said...

OMG

HOTLINE tracker just out

Obama +10 in BOTH the LV & RV !!!

50-40 LV

49-39 RV

+3 in one day

this tracker is EXTREMELY volatile...

@ http://diageohotlinepoll.com/

Real Joe said...

anybody with family values can't support hate

what will god think of us ?

Vanessa said...

markymark where did you hear of single figures for gallup?

DCM in FL said...

Battleground does not poll on weekends

IF Gallup stays at or around +10 again, then Obama's net average will be close to +8 in a poll of all national polls...

amazing...

Real Joe said...



St. Louis Post-Dispatch Endorses Obama for President

http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/the-platform/campaign-2008/2008/10/sunday-editorial-barack-obama-for-president/

Real Joe said...

26th Largest newspaper in USA(2007 Rankings)

Real Joe said...

(by circulation)

Sean said...

20.1 and 8.8.

That's where Obama and McCain's Favorable/Unfavorable averages are right now on RCP. +20.1 for Obama and +8.8 for McCain. Way to go with all that negativity, that really worked out well for you.

In the spirit of "project your failings onto your opponent" I read a quote from the McQuack camp yesterday that attacked Obama for spending more money on negative ads than any presidential campaign in history. This coming the day after reports that 100% of McCains ads last week were negative, compared to 34% for Obama.

There is some kind of major cognitive disconnect in play with these people that, even now, is hard to fully understand. It's like, when you think you've seen rock bottom, you think they can't get any dumber, they can't make a more totally boneheaded moves, they surprise you.

Real Joe said...

vanessa said...
markymark where did you hear of single figures for gallup?
i

someone from gallup was on tv

he said the numbers are single digit

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

The single digit was hinted at by Gallup talking head today---not official yet.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

When we have no polls--rumors is all we have.

prairiecomm said...

I made a EV-based cartogram for today (well, actually yesterday) - since bazards hasn't updated theirs in quite a while.

http://www.prairiecomm.net/images/cartogram_10_11_08.gif

DCM in FL said...

RCP averages 9 polls today.

using Gallup's # from yesterday [+10] yields a +7.8 net for Obama nationally

add in the R2000 tracker +12 gives a 10 poll average of +8.2 Obama

WOW !!!

markymark said...

I was just looking at Nate's Senate Scorecard, and it really is stunning when you think about it. 2 'safe Dem' pickups, 2 likely Dem pickups, even North Carolina is leaning Dem. No Dem set is in any other category accept 'Safe Dem'. The only vague dissapointment for Dems on the board at the moment would be that Minnesota is still tilting Republican. 60 is probably beyond Dems, but if Minnesota did move thats 57 (plus Sanders) To me thast would be plenty. If we got to 58 that might make Lieberman number 60 and thats not good. Might make some of the jellyfish backboned leaders of the Dem Caucus think twice about kicking him out.

John said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Joda said...

Actually Jack, if you bother to go read the news, you'll find that McCain has come to his senses today, and is now going out of his way to put out the fires of hatred from people at his town hall meetings

Yes, but his campain is now defending those ignorant McCain supporters...and claiming Obama has attacked them. Hard to take McCain's tone seriously when his own campaign puts out crap like this:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/10/1529529.aspx

Real Joe said...



Iowan Defends Obama 'Baby Killer' Yard Sign

http://www.newsnet5.com/politics/17688841/detail.html

prairiecomm said...

well, I suspect the right hand doesn't know what the left hand is doing over there

John said...

I think Gallup will be +9 today, which is just regression to the mean.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Marky--think if they get 57 it will be nearly veto proof. Think they can probably pull 3 moderate Republicans.

DCM in FL said...

NAM VET

who cares ???

a 'single digit' includes the #'s 8 & 9

that is right around where the average of allpolls resides currently

which is great news for Barack Hussein Obama !!!

plus you have the MOE that makes it just as likely that the real deficit for McCain is in the low double digits, but is definitely over 5...

both a tsunami & landslide territory

Vanessa said...

thursday was supposed to be a strong day of polling for John McCain

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

nam vet, I think you mean filibuster proof. No need for Obama to veto the dems. :)

Vanessa said...

was supposed to have been rather.

markymark said...

nam vet, I agree. Personally I think 56 would be a good number, but would like to see Franken beat Coleman, maybe Ted Stevens could win so he can be a punching bag still? (Has Palin endorsed Stevens yet?)

Only worry is, how many moderate GOPers are left?

fiatluxury said...

anticipation for BHO's half hour blocks:
end of october: going to start talking over McCain's head, as it were, focusing on the issues O faces as president-elect/hopeful. Lay out the plan for the first year, even. Give people an idea of what their immediate future holds under his administration. I think it would be a fine line between forward-looking and flat out cocky, but he's said all along this is about changing the democratic process to engage people, not just this election.

night before the election - i bet you someone on the campaign trail's been making a GOTV documentary-style video - that night is going to be all about "Whoever you're voting for, GET OUT AND VOTE." O's no dummy - he needs a mandate to have a successful administration and the more people that speak up in either direction, the more valid it will be.

Obama/Biden/(Fey) '08!

Jen said...

"Jen- I think you have the sense of that Yeats quote backwards. Think of the whole poem./mbw"

I agree the Republicans are defintitely bishop types, and are no where near as interesting as Crazy Jane. However, you have to admit with the Republicans mud slinging it fits and they have "pitched their mansion in the place of excrement".

Just saying. It is one of my two favorite poems of all time.

Real Joe said...



NC: McCain 48, Obama 46 (WSOC-TV 10/6-7)

WSOC-TV
October 6-7, 2008, n=500 likely voters, margin of error +/-4.5

North Carolina

McCain 48, Obama 46
Gov: Perdue (D) 46, McCrory (R) 43
Sen: Hagan (D) 44, Dole (R) 43

DCM in FL said...

MARKYMARK

hey, I met the 'real' MarkyMark back in the day of the dropped drawers at a CK charity event in the Hollywood Bowl...

love Entourage...

anyway, glad you are into electoral predictions now

Nate & 538's model are extremely conservative so far in projecting the current DEM rising tide, especially in the state senate polling which is sketchier...

the model IMHO undervalues DEM opportunities in AK, OR, MN, MS & GA - and even KY is probably not showing as a fair DEM pickup quite yet. Dump Mitch !

as of today, the polls show they have a solid shot at 58-60 DEM seats outright + 1 [VT-IND]

let's forget about Lieberman as he might switch parties in January.

my prediction is at least 59 DEM seats on November 4th as of today.

fwiw

Jen said...

RJ- wasn't that one included in "today's polls" yesterday?

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

I stand corrected liberal---I don't need spell check but could use a "what I really want to say check".

Real Joe said...

jen said...
RJ- wasn't that one included in "today's polls" yesterday?


pollster.com just posted it

DCM in FL said...

REAL JOE

those are old polls for NC - look at the dates...

plus it is an 'unknown' pollster so it gets no significant weight...

Pollster made a mistake in relisting it today as it has been in the field

chalk that up to the jewish holy day hang-over on Pollster

better look for 'good' news for the GOPers somewhere else...

markymark said...

I have said before, and I still believe this. The Dem caucuis should kick Lieberman out, if not now then Nov 5th. I think they should kick him out before he walks, as it would be a bad start to the new administration if Lieberman walks out in Jan.

markymark said...

and the real markymark was the bain of my life as a teenager until I learnt to embrace it lol!

Jen said...

Nate scooped Pollster then. :)

It was listed yesterday, but with McCain at 47.8 and up by 1.8.

DCM in FL said...

POLLSTER has been making an inordinate number of bad poll postings recently, including showing the wrong topline results

they are in need of better editing, and have been slower on the poll posting [except for national trackers]...

Marx was right said...

CT legalizes same sex marriage.

I just read that UT Mormons who have backed Proposition 8 in CA are mobilizing to move "resources" to CT to fight this. Too bad it's going to be even harder than in CA to overturn the ruling. :)

Three states respecting the civil rights of same sex couples; 47 to go.

DCM in FL said...

MARKY

Good vibrations

whatever happenned to the Funky Bunch...lol

the GOPers better learn to embrace BHO or it will be the bain of their existence for the next 4-8 years

Shawn said...

@MarkyMark

Lieberman's only chance at remaining a Dem is if he is number 60! Maybe 59 as they would hope to pick up more seats in 2010.

Todd Dugdale said...

This new-found aversion to negativity on the part of Norm Coleman and McCain is a farce. Both campaigns still have third parties running the negative ads here in Minnesota. Those ads by the Chamber of Commerce and the NRSC are what people mean when they talk about "the negative campaigning" we are seeing. Those ads by far outnumber the "official" ads by the McCain and Coleman campaigns.

McCain and Coleman have merely "outsourced" the smears to third parties and are reaping the putative benefits while posing as above all of the negativity.

These people at the Palin and McCain rallies do not materialise out of thin air. They are the logical and natural result of the right-wing media machine which has been pushing this "take the gloves off" strategy for months now. Where else does someone at a Minnesota McCain rally get the notion that Obama is an "Arab"? The right-wing media, including the local radio "talkers" across the nation, have created a script and spoon-fed it to these people until they can parrot it with confidence.

And then we are supposed to believe that these outbursts are some kind of spontaneous, grassroots phenomenon.

Daniel said...

The 30-minute time block Obama purchased on the major networks is a little homage to the past...

JFK, LBJ, Nixon, Goldwater, and Humphrey all purchased significant air time in this manner (I think even Ike and Stevenson did so)

Stephen C. Rose said...

States* Barack Obama MIGHT Win in November -- chosen prior to the campaign on the basis of primary results.

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
* California 55
* Colorado 9
* Connecticut 7
* Delaware 3
* D.C. 3
*Florida 27
*Georgia 15
* Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
* Illinois 21
*Indiana 11
* Iowa 7
* Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
* Maine 4
* Maryland 10
* Massachusetts 12
* Michigan 17
* Minnesota 10
* Mississippi 6
* Missouri 11
*Montana 3
Nebraska 5
* Nevada 5
* New Hampshire 4
* New Jersey 15
* New Mexico 5
* New York 31
* North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
* Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
* Oregon 7
* Pennsylvania 21
* Rhode Island 4
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
* Vermont 3
* Virginia 13
* Washington 11
West Virginia 5
* Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3

mc9cain said...

Is Bill Kristoll the dumbest pundit/strategist in the history of the U.S.?? There is absolutely NOTHING he has touched that hasn't turned to shit. He likes to think he's a Karl Rove. Well Karl Rove is diabolical and preys on old people and the uneducated but is unfortunately intelligent.

Bill Kristol "Mr. I Got It WRONG Again" is also diabolical and preys on old people and the uneducated but is also one incredible dumbass. Sarah Palin was his brilliant idea. Of course. Read and enjoy stupidity at it's finest.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/the-kristol-pal.html

markymark said...

I think the GOP attitude to President Obama could be fascinating. Once he is elected I don't think he is going to rile Republicans in quite the way Clinton did. I think if he has any sense at all he won't kick off being a social liberal. I think that one of Clinton's biggest mistakes out of the gate was tackling gays in the military. I think in that sense the economic crisis might not be a bad thing for him.

histocrat said...

If Obama's buying the same 30-minute block on every broadcast network, he should get a little clever and record different segments covering different topics, and have a box at the bottom of the screen saying "For Obama's fiscal policy, turn to CBS. For foreign policy, ABC. For responses to smears, Fox." Tape is cheap, airtime is expensive--this way, everybody gets whatever they're interested in.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Bill Kristol--Dan Quayle's top advisor--enough said.

Real Joe said...



Bill Clinton to raise money for Obama in Cleveland

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/10/bill_clinton_to_raise_money_fo.html

markymark said...

Daniel,

One of the things I have enjoyed are Obama's little homages to the past. Taking the conventions last day to Invesco Field a la JFK at the LA Colliseum, embracing the legacy of the Kennedys, talking eloquently about the race issue. I think its absolutely fabulous to see a politician with an understanding of the past.

Mark Hussein in VA said...

Just when you think it can't get any worse for McCain, it does:

"McCain faces conservative backlash over mortgage plan"


McCain taking fire from across the isle, independents, and now within his ranks.

I've seen this story before. It was called "The Carter Administration". I guess it was McCain all along who was running for Carter's second term.

Real Joe said...



Obama Pro gun ?

Ray Schoenke, president of the American Hunters and Shooters Association, will make a series of Florida campaign appearances this weekend for Obama.

That includes an event at 10:30 a.m. Saturday at an Obama campaign office in Orlando, 1011 E. Colonial Drive, Suite 520.

Also, it includes an event at 4:15 p.m. Sunday in the Putnam County commissioners meeting room, 514 St. Johns Ave., Palatka.

http://blogs.news-journalonline.com/politics/2008/10/obama_mccain_lining_up_gun_gro.html

DCM in FL said...

STEPHEN

nice list for your pre-season prediction.

still a good shot at winning most of your list, but KS & MS are doubtful even in a landslide this year

on the other hand, you missed picking ND & WV which could both join the party - but it is understandable why based on the primaries...

markymark said...

I can imagine at least part of the Obama media buy being a biographical video of Barack and Michelle. I think its interesting that he hasn't pushed back too hard on the smears of the last few days, he has politely rebutted them, pointed to the fact that it shows that McCain isn't addressing the issues. I think 15 mins of strong biography might just be whats needed to finally kill the idea that Obama is scary.

Real Joe said...



funny post on pollster.com

BREAKING NEWS

***From Drudge****

The Obama's two young daughters have been linked by the State Dept to a Muslin Clown named BOO-BOO the Clown.

hahahahaha !

mc9cain said...

The thread titled "Does McCain have Cooties" is officially the longest 538 thread ever.

So yes, Nate most of us agree that he does have cooties, so now can we get a new thread? :)

Genevieve said...

Diageo/Hotline

O: 50
M: 40

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/

Todd Dugdale said...

markymark wrote:
The only vague disappointment for Dems on the board at the moment would be that Minnesota is still tilting Republican.

New polling shows Franken ahead of Coleman 43 / 47. I would assume that Nate hasn't updated the Senate figures to reflect that fact yet.

If this election turns out to be the blow-out it is shaping up to be, then I think two Republican Senators can be peeled off as needed for crucial votes. The Republican Senators hanging on will have to be very nervous about chaining themselves to what will continue to be thought of as the "Bush Agenda" even after Bush is gone. Others will be looking to 2012 and wondering how valuable Party "support" will be compared to the cost of toeing the Party line.

With the prospect of vetoes removed and a Democratic VP (tie-breaker), the value of 60 Senators is reduced to the ability to invoke cloture. The nation has already passed judgement on the Roadblock Republicans, and a continuation of that tactic for two years until the mid-terms is hardly wise.

Real Joe said...

mc9cain said...
The thread titled "Does McCain have Cooties" is officially the longest 538 thread ever.

So yes, Nate most of us agree that he does have cooties, so now can we get a new thread? :)


nate

sleeping ?

Mark Hussein in VA said...

I fear this right wingnut knuckle-dragging mob is getting out of hand, to an extremely damaging point.

I pray that Powell, Hagel, and any other high-profile Republican who sees the writing on the wall comes out and supports Obama. Ideally, they should come out in a joint statement. Surely reasonable Republicans must see the danger of that crazy bitch Palin and that McCain has lost control of the message. The lunatics have taken over the asylum, and McCain is tied up in the corner.

markymark said...

Todd

Accept that we can all imagine GOPers standing up and saying 'what have the Dems done' even if its been the GOP blocking them.

Real Joe said...



Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 40%
Undec 7%

- Burgeoning Record. In the first Diageo/Hotline poll taken fully after the 2nd WH debate, Obama leads McCain by 10%, his largest margin thus far. Previously, Obama's record advantage had been 7%.

- Prepare & Contrast. McCain now has his smallest lead ever on who LVs feel is more prepared to lead the nation. 46% say McCain is more prepared, while 43% say Obama. A week ago, in the survey completed 10/3, McCain led 49-41%.

- Hail To The Victor. LVs overwhelmingly feel Obama won the 2nd debate. Among the 71% who watched, 53% say the Dem nominee prevailed, while just 14% say McCain. In a similarly timed sample of RVs after the 1st debate, 42% said Obama won and 25% said McCain.

- Made The Grades. Obama scored considerably higher among debate watchers than McCain. 71% say Obama did an "excellent" or "good" job in the debate, while only 38% say the same of McCain. 27% say Obama did an "only fair" or "poor" job, while 59% say the same of McCain.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/8-10 by FD, surveyed 808 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

For subscribers, look to Monday's Latest Edition for full results and checkout Keys To The White House at any time to see how Obama and McCain are doing among key demographic groups.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/10/the_early_line_4.html

grandpa john said...

Kristol and Goldberg, classic examples of the degenerative effects of nepotism reaching the maximum point

DCM in FL said...

MC9

actually, in the last 2 weeks 538 has had numerous threads top out over 1000 posts.

probably would be even higher if the newbies flocking to this site figured out how to access the thread once the comments top 200..

my guess is that Nate is being like Obama - biding his time before he acts

expect a polling update & new thread this afternoon once Gallup tracker is released

of course, our good buddy Sean might drop a new Road thread on us at any moment day or night

they also have many States left to deconstruct in just a few short weeks...

Real Joe said...



McCain rally - Iowa

http://us.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream2

DCM in FL said...

REALJOE

so does that Hotline post confirm that you have officially abandoned the GOPer ship & jumped on the Obama bandwagon ?

good for you - acceptance at last

DCM in FL said...

McCain trying to speak live on TV

it was all BOOING !!!

he can't get a word in...

trying to say "you know my friends...."

Real Joe said...

McCain on Fox news

Real Joe said...

my friends...

markymark said...

So the McCain campaign has degenrated into speeches in front of baying masses who want the blood (some quite literally)of Obama. If there are any moderate GOPers who have not yet jumoped ship, I need to ask one question. Why not??

Real Joe said...

Iowa is gone

WTF is he doing there

Real Joe said...

i'm off the ship

Chuck said...

"I am almost positive that what is happening is that Intrade is liquidating the contracts held by traders that fail to meet margin calls. That is the only thing that makes sense, and it pretty much explains the movement."

Intrade is not the stock market. Its a gambling site. All money has to be in your account for bets to be accepted.

DCM in FL said...

REAL JOE

here comes the lifeline

we will 'rescue you'

come on aboard the SS Obama

Lorrie said...

I'm feeling really good about the new polls and about McCain's campaign looking like it's totally lost.

I mean this clip pretty much destroys McCain's attack ads: McCain Vs. McCain's Attack Ads.

grandpa john said...

so does that Hotline post confirm that you have officially abandoned the GOPer ship & jumped on the Obama bandwagon ?

Having watched joes posting pattern for some time here, I expect that joe has ALWAYS been on the Obama bandwagon, A true McCainiac wold not have been making posts with links to other sites or events that were favorable to Obama, so I expect that Joe is playing the part of a spoofer and is leading folks on with his role playing.

John said...

McCain has convinced half of his supporters that Obama is a terrorist threat to the United States, and now he is talking about "coming together."

He is a joke.

Darío said...

Please Nate, a want to see a post about the anti-intellectualism populism of Sarah Palin.
It´s very dangerous for the country.
Please Nate.

DCM in FL said...

most interesting thing in the Hotline release today is that they toplined both the LV & RV results

BOTH showed Obama +10

RR is LV with heavy party ID weighting

Gallup is RV

indicates that at this point for modeling LV/RV appears to make little difference

but Scottie R is still sure trying to put the best possible spin on the deficit in #'s for Mac in his commentaries, party IDs, etc.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

So Gramps--Real Joe is not Real Joe.

John said...

None of the cable news channels are talking about Palin's abuse of power...

DCM in FL said...

RCP site is also taking the day off apparently

they have yet to update Hotline #'s even though it was released several hours ago

plus am I the only one to note how little RCP has provided as linkage or commentary regarding Palin & her Troopergate findings that it was Abuse of Power ???

very odd or.... hhhmmmm maybe intentional ??? nah,not at fair & balanced RCP

prairiecomm said...

yea real joe - what a hero!

John said...

If Biden had been found guilty of abuse of power, they wouldn't be talking about anything else.

mc9cain said...

dcm,
I hear ya. I just looked back at the last few days of posts and this was the most. Are the Clintons planning on going down to Florida to GOTV for O? I thought Bill might station himself in a nice oceanside suite for a few weeks.

ialex said...

There's a post on the front page - "Debate may have helped Obama" - with over 800 posts.

DCM in FL said...

INTRADE is really just for 'entertainment' purposes [ok gaming]

but interesting to monitor these types of markets fwiw

just 2 weeks ago, Mac was up or even

now it is almost 80/20 - OUCH !

betting on Palin dropping out as a long shot is still really the best bet out there IMHO

go down in flames Sarah...

Real Joe said...



More Mixed Messages from McCain?

Jake Tapper- ABC NEWS

Last night, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., tried to correct some of his more, er, angry and scared supporters, ones who seem to buy into the ludicrous myth that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is some sort of Muslim Manchurian candidate.

This morning in Philly, Obama thanked McCain.

"I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric yesterday at his town hall yesterday," Obama said, "and I appreciate his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other. I’ve said it before, and I'll say it again – Senator McCain has served this country with honor, he deserves our thanks for that."

This was followed by an odd response from the McCain campaign, as if the GOP senator had not last night admirably tried to calm down a bizarrely agitated crowd.

“The tone of this election is not fueling voter outrage," said McCain spox Tucker Bounds, "it’s that Americans are frustrated knowing that Barack Obama’s plans to raise taxes during a down economy and his proposal for a trillion dollars in new government spending are the absolute wrong answers to our economic crisis."

What's the reason for the mixed messages? Well, the McCain campaign has no intention of letting up on the same character attacks on Obama that have been met on the stump with angry supporters yelling "treason!" "terrorist!" and "kill him!" when McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin invoke Obama's name.

Palin yesterday in Cleveland said, "we've got to start connecting the dots between Barack Obama and some of his associations, some of the things he has done in the past, and more importantly, some of the things that he intends to do in the future, so that Americans will know clearly their choices. We'll lay this out to American voters in the next couple of days.”

They're kind of in a weird place, let's say. They want to keep attacking Obama on these "associations," but they don't want to be held responsible for the kinds of ugly reactions these attacks find on the trail from McCain-Palin supporters.

ABC News' Imtiyaz Delawala, traveling with Palin, reports that a Palin supporter in Johnstown, Pa., today was holding a Curious George monkey doll on which he'd put an Obama sticker.

And the Iowa Independent reports from a McCain event that the pastor's invocation included the following: "there are plenty of people around the world who are praying to their god, be they Hindu, Buddah, or Allah, that (McCain's) opponent wins. I pray that you step forward and honor your own name."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/more-mixed-mess.html

answriter said...

Coleman is no moderate and would happily sink as low as McSame if he, Coleman, thought it would help him win his own election. In fact, he's already done so.

noiateerickson said...

Everyone looks at Intrade....I find sports gambling websites (Sportsbook, etc, much better)....

Even when McCain surged ahead on Intrade post-convention, the gambling websites always had Obama as a 2:1 favorite or so to win the election....

Those people aren't in the business of losing $...They know what they are doing.

Currently, the site I use has Obama at -335, McCain at +280 (Obama better than 3:1 odds...)

Real Joe said...



ABC News' Imtiyaz Delawala, traveling with Palin, reports that a Palin supporter in Johnstown, Pa., today was holding a Curious George monkey doll on which he'd put an Obama sticker.

And the Iowa Independent reports from a McCain event that the pastor's invocation included the following: "there are plenty of people around the world who are praying to their god, be they Hindu, Buddah, or Allah, that (McCain's) opponent wins. I pray that you step forward and honor your own name."



OMG

Sean said...

Hotline was added on RCP, Obama average is up to 7.7.

Nice.

Tim said...

Anyone who is voting for McCain is accepting that they're rooting for the candidate that has the David Duke constituency all sewn up.

We are who we associate ourselves with voluntarily.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Obama now has his biggest lead ever on RCP.

His poll average is +7.7, his old high was +7.5 in June.

He now has 49.9% averaged, his record was 49.8% a little bit ago.

grandpa john said...

This was followed by an odd response from the McCain campaign, as if the GOP senator had not last night admirably tried to calm down a bizarrely agitated crowd.

“The tone of this election is not fueling voter outrage," said McCain spox Tucker Bounds, "


So how many hear think that McCain is actually in control of his campaign as compared to being the lead puppet.

grandpa john said...

This was followed by an odd response from the McCain campaign, as if the GOP senator had not last night admirably tried to calm down a bizarrely agitated crowd.

“The tone of this election is not fueling voter outrage," said McCain spox Tucker Bounds, "


So how many hear think that McCain is actually in control of his campaign as compared to being the lead puppet.

Sean said...

Zogby is looking like a bigger jackass every day, and that's impressive for him, because he's a pretty big jackass to begin with.

Vanessa said...

well, gallup I am told will bring the average down.

DCM in FL said...

MC9

the Clinton's have been dropping in regularly lately

but as things stand right now, Obama probably doesn't even need them

events on the ground are moving toward Obama in FL on their own

with big MO moving public sentiment, why bother riling up old wounds that have scabbed over ?

Obama has extremely effective ads up pushing his optimism

McCain's ads are extremely harsh & negative across the board

people are so sick of the GOPers spewing their bile that I am not sure heavy duty rallies would help

swing voters in FL are already leaning toward Obama, advance voting has started with absentee ballots out & early voting in person starts on the 20th

the Obama tide is rising organically here in FL so ride the boat up - no rocking !!!

Bill & Hill can be great with the base, but they might rock the boat for the swing/UNDs/INDs

Biden is better in FL in person IMHO

let the Clintons loose in WV, MO, OH & ND & MT

not sure about in VA & NC - same in GA, maybe just let the ground game & Obama in person push those states toward blue

grandpa john said...

Vanessa, you remind me of my deceased mother-in-law who was happiest when she had something to worry about

Real Joe said...

any state polls coming out ?

Shawn said...

Ohio Newspaper Poll

Obama- 46
McCain - 48

Big grain of salt here as they have always been high McCain. Last poll was M+6

Details Here

AxmxZ said...

"There are plenty of people around the world who are praying to their god, be they Hindu, Buddah, or Allah, that (McCain's) opponent wins."

What a bewildering density of moral, semantic, and grammatical fail.

Kid G said...

I just wanted to point out that according to RCP, Obama is now at an all time high for BOTH his own % of the vote AND point differential. He has clearly never been in as good a position as now, even after the convention bounce.

mc9cain said...

Thanks DCM. Your thoughts are very encouraging and make a lot of sense. Florida blue sounds too good to be true!

markymark said...

How will the Clinton's feel if Obama wins bigger than Bill did, and without the help of Perot?

Subterranean said...

It's going to be a slow process for serious journalists to report on Troopergate. Remember, the legislators in the session had 1,000 page binders to deal with.

Also, it's unclear where this can go next. Palin obviously has the State Attorney General in her pocket (To paraphrase Finding #4 from the report: "The Attorney General's office did not cooperate with our investigation.")

So who would indict Palin?

As for McCain's "campaign"...lol, I really don't think going negative will work for him. Sullivan summarized the results of the first all-negative week as "a tragedy of Shakespearian proportions."

And if B. Hussein O. raised $10M in 24hrs after Palin's convention speech, can you imagine how much contributions have spiked in the last week?

AxmxZ said...

So, Gallup predictions. +8?

mc9cain said...

sub t:
totally agree. And I just donated again this week because of the b.s.

Someone upthread said that Obama also bought 1/2 hour on Nov. 3rd. Any link on that? I REALLY like that because the electorate has the attention span of a gnat.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Gallup:

M-42
O-51
O+9

DCM in FL said...

SUB

I agree with your comments.

They intentionally released the Troopergate report very late on a Friday afternoon in AK so that it would miss the east coast evening news & get buried on the slow weekend.

It has worked for them so far. They really had no choice but to release what they did when they did because otherwise a slow 'leak' of the report would be far more damaging IMHO - and would look like it was supressed by the AK GOP & Mac/Palin.

But they did still hold back something like 1000 pages - and nothing from most of the state staff for Palin despite subpoenas - plus no cooperation at all from Palin & her cronies

my guess is that once again team Obama will sit on their monthly donation report until the last possible day to release it for several reasons.

the #'s are probably huge [100 mil ?], hard to reconcile, and for max impact - maybe next Wed on Debate eve ?

Vanessa said...

M42
O51

No biggie.

DCM in FL said...

Gallup 51-42 +9

stable

Vanessa said...

Holy shit, just 6% undecided.

AxmxZ said...

Gallup

O 51
M 42

Numbers I can live with.

visitor_xxx said...

mc9cain said...
sub t:
totally agree. And I just donated again this week because of the b.s.

Someone upthread said that Obama also bought 1/2 hour on Nov. 3rd. Any link on that? I REALLY like that because the electorate has the attention span of a gnat.

October 11, 2008 12:00 PM

***********

@mc9cain
I am foreigner I can't donate (really sorry for that)
so I donate this link for what you are looking for:
http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-primetime.html

aloha
:)

Darío said...

Vanessa, if McCain takes all the undecideds he will be at 48%.
Only if he take all the undecideds.
It´s very difficult for him.

DCM in FL said...

Gallup #'s could be just due to rounding.

I do not understand why in this day & age the pollsters do not release their #'s to at least 1/10's to avoid the rounding noise

higher level of confidence if they did, but less able to push a narrative of #'s appearing to move...

comeone pollsters, get with the 21st century already !

Graham said...

My friend PeteKent is travelling, but asked me to post this for him...


"In fact it is Obama who is in danger of the biggest electoral collapse in the history of Western democracies. We're in uncharted waters here with the Bradley Effect. Nate's dismissal of it is obviously based on recent NON-Presidential elections, and there is no realistic way to model a completely unprecedented situation like this one.

It's too early to know how the Palin report will play out. The hubris of the pro-Obama posters here is surprising to me, since the public is likely to react unfavorably to reports that the Obama/Biden campaign has systematically manipulated the release date of Branchflower's findings.

Many of the poll figures for battleground states listed on this site defy credulity. There was a lot of big talk about Indiana going blue, and now even the pro-Obama prostesters here are admitting that Indiana is slipping back into the McCain camp. Mere polls should not be trusted in Virginia or North Carolina given the long recent track record of Republican victories in those states.

But perhaps the most compelling worry for the Obama campaign right now ought to be the continuing specter of Hillary Clinton, whose followers continue to be outraged at the mistreatment of their candidate. And it really is quite remarkable that the Democrats have turned on the Clinton Family, their most talented politicians since Lyndon Johnson. Obama is a relative neophyte, and cocky though he may be about the Clinton threat being behind him, he is playing with fire. Expect a significantly lower Democrat turnout on November 4 than this site estimates. The rage of Hillary's supporters may have slowly subsided since June, but it expect it to flare up anew when they see how easily victory could have been theirs instead.

Tony Rezko will soon come up for sentencing, and I expect a flood of negative news coverage of Obama to create unprecedented volatility during the final 72 hours of the campaign, when true momentum at the polls is often established.

All this talk of Democratic landslides also threatens to lead the Democrats into arrogant risk-tasking that might easily offend independents, who may respond "Obama" to pollsters now, but whose commitment to the Democratic ticket is at best skin-deep.

Palin has been an effective lightning rod to distract the media from attacks on McCain, whose public image remains solid despite the extreme rhetoric found on this site. Democrats are also forgetting that it was Rove's mobilization of the GOP base that won the 2004 election for Bush, and this same base is now angrier than ever at the relentless media assault on Palin, America's most popular Governor.

I am predicting a late October collapse of historic proportions for Obama, and a victory for McCain with the following map: Bush 2004 states minus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, but with upset victories in Minnesota and Wisconsin."

michiganmaine said...

Vanessa:"well, gallup I am told will bring the average down."

At least that gives you something to worry about!

markymark said...

Yep Gallup is fine, Obama more than 50% and 9 point lead. Little more than 3 weeks to go, and a hefty lead, and McCain rarely over 45% in the whole of the campaign.

John said...

graham,

No one wants to read that crap.

grandpa john said...

Obama has extremely effective ads up pushing his optimism

McCain's ads are extremely harsh & negative across the board

To me one thing that a lot of people seem to be overlooking in this race is the difference in the intellect and intelligence of the 2 candidates. It seems to me that Obama has done his homework much better than McCain and in the battle of intelligent planning and preparation there is no contest.It seems to me that Obama has also researched winning campaigns from the past such as FDRs His use of optimism instead of fear in a time of financial crisis for example.His setting forth a concrete program with stated details in a time when people are looking for a change. Being able to determine the mood of the country and more importantly adapting his campaign to appeal to that mood. The setting not only of tactics but a long term strategy and then sticking doggedly to that strategy.
In retrospect, the slap dash McCain campaign thrown together with no rational or logical planning or strategy was doomed to failure from the start. When people such as McCain whose primary interest is self promotion but and who have no vision and little intelligence come upon people who do possess these qualities the result is usually failure.

visitor_xxx said...

Graham said...
My friend PeteKent is travelling, but asked me to post this for him...

***************
@Graham
I read it.
holy Mother !
I wouldn't interfere but :
If you are a real PeteKent's friend,you should try to help him to find a srink ASAP.

aloha.
:)

DCM in FL said...

RCP average of 9 national polls = Obama +7.7 @ 49.9%

add in the R2000 tracker = Obama +8.1 @ 50%

more evidence that Zogby is a tool

AMEN

Matthew said...

1) Oregon is BLUE, not purple!

2) Smith is NOT a moderate. He just plays one on TV every 6 years. He's going down this time though.

NC_voter said...

FreepTard special update

The scum at free republic aren't liking mccain calming down his crowds and calling for respect. not one bit.

CALLING OBAMA A RESPECTABLE FAMILY MAN THAT WE NEED NOT FEAR IS OUTRAGEOUS!

McCAIN TAKING THE ABUSE AND INSULTS FROM OBAMA AND REFUSING TO FIGHT BACK IS OUTRAGEOUS!

WE’RE NOT TURNING THE WHITE HOUSE KEYS OVER TO BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA- NOT IF WE ON FR, RUSH, HANNITY AND FOX HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH IT!

FReep McCAIN/ MSM OUT.

HOW LONG CAN THEY IGNORE A MILLION EMAILS??


REMIND McCAIN THAT HE HAS AN OBLIGATION AS OUR CANDIDATE TO FIGHT BACK!
To h*ll with bipartisian BS!
To h*ll with PC!
To h*ll with ‘conducting a respectful campaign’as McCain has said, and vowed to do.


Hit the Marxist/Muslim hard with Ayers, Acorn, Violation of Logan Act, abortion, 2nd admendment, Campaigning for Odinga!!
Get off the d*mned economy issue. State that Obama/Democrats/ACORN caused this meltdown. State McCain offered a proposal to avert the meltdown and GET OFF IT.
Obama is counting on keeping this going to take the spotlight off his sordid past and dirty dealings!
NOTHING is more important than waking America up to this Marxist/Muslim!! DO IT. EXPOSE HIM!





The scum over there have reached a new low. If you're wondering who are the kind of people that buy into the scum-baiting that mccain/palin have been trying all week, look no further than the freeptards.

Todd Dugdale said...

answriter wrote:
Coleman is no moderate and would happily sink as low as McSame if he, Coleman, thought it would help him win his own election. In fact, he's already done so.

The thing that makes Coleman so hard to attack is that he is a chameleon. Once a pot-smoking, anti-war Democrat, he jumped ship as the GOP was on the rise. He was a reliable part of "the Bush Team" until Bush's approval ratings dropped, when he then set a more "independent" course and made weakly nervous statements doubting the Decider's position on Iraq and voted against the surge.

During the primary season, he switched endorsements. He first endorsed Giuliani and bought in to all of the crazy, hyper-fear, eternal war, Muslim-hating rhetoric of that campaign. Then the breeze shifted, and he was all about McCain.

So it's not that Coleman is a far-right crazy; it's that the man stands for nothing and is available to shill for the highest bidder. He only won election by a plurality due to a three-way race.

DCM in FL said...

GRAHAM is obviously a troll

also a tool if he proudly claims to be posting for Pete the Parrot

besides this is 2008, anyone can access the internet from anywhere on the planet - probaly even from space

I guess Pete is 'traveling' under deep cover in a top secret mission to save our country,no ? lol

sorry, I know better - but it is just too funnie

DNFTT

newsfromOH said...

It's interesting to see the difference this year when this group of voters has a chance of losing. For those of us who knew Bush's second term would be a disaster, we were very upset at his "win". Still, we didn't grab our torches and pitchforks.

Now the tables appear to be turning (sorry, I just can't be an unbridled optimist--we all still have to get the voters out and change whatever minds we can to nail this down!!!), and the true colors of the neocons are glaringly obvious. But, of course, they lack any insight at all into the fact that they are simply experiencing what half the country did 4 years ago (probably because they also can't admit that they were hideously wrong 4 and 8 years ago .. .)

iN2TheROSES said...

I heard of this blog because of your appearance on The Colbert Report. It's fantastic.

That's all.

Trout Chevy Pike Palin said...

AxmxZ said...

Gallup

O 51
M 42

Numbers I can live with.


A very good polling day for Obama dropped but obviously was replaced by another really good polling day yesterday.

PorridgeGun said...

Who the fuck is giving McCain a 1% gain? The day after the debate, Obama led by 11%. That was without polling reaction to the previous night. Now it's 9%. What has McCain done in that time, other than embarrass himself and promote hatred and racism at campaign rallys?


Among Americans who watched or heard the first debate, 46% thought Obama did the better job while 34% picked McCain. Obama won by an even bigger margin following the second town hall style debate in Nashville last week, with 56% of the viewing public saying he did the better job, versus only 23% naming McCain.


Great, Obama is at 51%, but it's absolutely shocking to me that McCain isn't lower than 40%.

Brian said...

Sub - I dropped in $500 yesterday. That says something because I had only donated $50 up until then, and I'm not really running around with money falling out of my pockets. It's a worthy cause, and the negativity on the other side has definitely motivated me even more.

mc9cain said...

visitor_xxx
Thanks but isn't that link about the Oct 29 ad buy? I was looking for a link to a story that he also purchased a 1/2 hour for November 3.

AxmxZ said...

If there are only 6% undecided left, McCain is screwed even if they ALL break for him.

assmole said...

This Palin 'abuse of power' is the end of the election. Nice knowing y'all.

AxmxZ said...

PEOPLE who are donating to Obama! Check out my fundraising page. I give presents to Obama donors. :)

newsfromOH said...

I'm going to be singing this for the next month:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYX-HvCYaVA

Gerbie said...

Bush on financial crisis: It's a good thing I'm in charge!

True otherwise it would not have been created

oct said...

Personal Theory

Repubs are trying to make race an issue. Imagine that. They are deliberately stirring the pot, especially with the susceptible and uneducated segments out their.

The Goal is less obvious. They want these outcries of racism to lead to demonstrations and things that even on a small scale get press. That way people worry that an Obama Presidency may lead to racial instability. Notice how McCain is playing an act of trying to quell racist notions. See the act is to make McCain seem like the Daddy figure that keeps the Nation form unhinging on racial tensions. Also part of the act are many of the McCain hecklers that he talks down. Stagecraft. Smoke and mirrors.

Bottom line: Don't be fooled. This is not over and crush the fools. Show no mercy or restraint. This is deliberately an act to stir up racism in our Great Nation to hold power.

mc9cain said...

I think McCain is going to need another Bailout. Like bailing out of the economic debate. The poor guy knows NOTHING about financial markets. Not saying he isn't smart and all, but he has never had any interest in it and how do you start at 72?

BTW, this might be one of Obama's top 5 speeches. The economic one he did last March in New York when everyone was yawning about it. I'm in finance and know that Obama knows what he's talking about - this isn't just some speech someone else wrote for him. He gets it. Seriously, with this type of intelligence we can get out of this mess.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/03/obamas_economic_speech_in_new.html

Shawn said...

Yet another Obama rally in Philly right now!

Live Here!

Real Joe said...

3rd rally

visitor_xxx said...

mc9cain said...
visitor_xxx
Thanks but isn't that link about the Oct 29 ad buy? I was looking for a link to a story that he also purchased a 1/2 hour for November 3
*********
mc9cain
got some research on internet,result:
sort of "bridge to nowhere"
sorry.
:(

justsomeguy said...

Obama does 3 or 4 events a day. McCain does one. Today in Davenport, IA McCain will be standing in state that will go blue, and looking across the river at Obama's home state, which will also go blue.

justsomeguy said...

I really wonder what McCain's internals are in IA. His must look much different than the national polling.

Todd Dugdale said...

McCain hasn't broken 45 in nearly three weeks on Gallup.

His high point (post-primary) was one day at 49. He went up seven points overnight in his convention bounce, but even that would not put him over the top if he could duplicate it.

The rallying points that conservatives hoped would mean Big Things for McCain have produced nothing: the debates, the bail-out, Palin, the smears. Republicans think that portrayals of fanatics screaming for blood will turn things around, but the nation already knows that there are people who viscerally hate Obama. They just are not letting that fact influence their vote. On the contrary, it makes McCain seem scary.

Real Joe said...

justsomeguy said...
I really wonder what McCain's internals are in IA. His must look much different than the national polling.


McCain campaign source told me that IA is close

i didn't get the numbers

justsomeguy said...

The RCP average is just gorgeous today, with Obama getting a second bump and McCain going further into the ditch.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

EmonOkari said...
This post has been removed by the author.
EmonOkari said...

McCain campaign source told me that IA is close

According to the 538 Model, McCain has less chance of winning Iowa than Obama has of winning: GA, SC, TX, LA, MS, TN, KY, AR, KS, NE, ND, SD, AZ, MT, AK!

andrewswift said...

Iowa is not close. If the McCain camp honestly thinks that they're total lunatics.

DCM in FL said...

POLLSTER is a mess

they have the wrong topline [again] for the current RR tracker as 50-45 instead of 52-45

they need a better content editor or something because they are posting stuff wrong and/or late on a regular basis lately

justsomeguy said...

IA is not close from any public poll, or anyone I talk to inthe state. Obama clearly disagrees to, he has not been there in an age.

LAT said...

people, please, McCain is NOT even close in Iowa. The bs about his polling numbers being close? He has never been even close or ahead--unlike Michigan---but now they are simply trying to hold in to Bush states. He should be defending closer ones--NC, FL, Ohio. Instead he is wasting time in Iowa, this is part of the genius of his ground team, lead by previously Giuliani team.

markymark said...

The good thing about internals is campaigns can lie about them given the need.

I really think that McCain isn't running on strategy at the moment, I think he is running a campaign to get as much national attention as possible, and campaigning in odd places is a way to get publicity.

The worrying moment for McCain in all this camapaign is when the media start ignoring him.

justsomeguy said...

DailyKOS has a nice post up showing the change from Oct. 7 to now in each state. Pretty amazing stuff.

I can't cut and paste it because KOS is one of those sites that doesn't allow it...

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Iowa is not close. No poll has ever had him ahead. In fact, most have Obama in double digits.

LAT said...

also--Iowans see Obama as their candidate. They launched him and they are going to make sure they make him president. (not to mention the ethanol issue which McCain is not supportive and is crucial in the state)

justsomeguy said...

We need another Selzer poll from IA, she is golden there.

Dannylandulf said...

Remember in late July when Barack Obama predicted John McCain's attack strategy? Remember McCain's howls of protest in response? Well, it turns out that Obama was right about McCain's attacks. Watch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jH2iufUU1f4&eurl=http://www.facebook.com/home.php

oct said...

The repubs are just trying to say that their McCain-Palin Election Strategy is to keep the Bush 04 Map.

Impossible but that is why McCain is in Iowa today period.

They are just trying to keep the base's hopes up to maintain some congressional edge I think.

Stephen said...

Why is Nate accepting ads for McCain/Palin and also ads for ProtectMarriage.com?

Stephen said...

Why is Nate accepting ads for McCain/Palin and also ads for ProtectMarriage.com?

Stephen said...

Why is Nate accepting ads for McCain/Palin and also ads for ProtectMarriage.com?

DCM in FL said...

IA is as solid blue as blue will get in 2008

SUSA poll late this week confirms a double didit lead with Obama well over 50%

SUSA 54 - 41 +13

McCain is trying to pretend otherwise so he will not look like he has abandoned any more states

actually he is probably trying to play to the INDs & conservative DFLers in southern MN, plus to try to hold onto the 40% base in IA to avoid an embarrassing blowout of epic proportions IMHO

but MN is lost to the GOPers too, as will be WI - so this late gambit to campaign in the midwest is all bluff & bluster

he better get his ass down to MO & then over to OH & IN & NC & GA & even MS & WV as well as FL of course where the GOPers are sliding toward the abyss - these 7 states 'maybe' Mac can salvage but every day they slip further is a day that the Obama tide rises across his red base...

VA & PA & MI & NH & NV & CO & NM & all the other supposed 'battleground states' are likely already lost for Mac
IMHO

the reckoning is a'coming

realityfish.com said...

I can't quite bring myself to read all 800 comments, but Nate, for the love of God, Coleman is NOT a "moderate" who "[doesn't] like the campaign's tone." You're covering every race in the country, which I know doesn't give you a lot of time to delve into the details of the candidates. But if you read into it, you'll see the (blatantly obvious) truth: a) Norm Coleman is so far up Dick Cheney's butt that he can nuzzle his liver, b) Norm Coleman is a shill for lobbyists, even to the point of them buying his clothes, and c) Norm Coleman loves sleeze, to the point that he's currently running what is almost universally proclaimed the most revolting television ads of all the Senate races.

Look into it before you call Coleman a moderate again. Trust me on that one.

DCM in FL said...

Q - why is Obama planning the national primetime 'address to the nation' in late October ?

A- same reasons that he bought ad time during the Olympics.

1st - because he can afford it, and it will bankrupt the GOPers to try to match

2nd - the promise of a 50 state strategy is fulfilled since the penetration is to every single home in the entire USA

brilliant ! [as Fosters lager would say...]

I just wish that Obama would drop into some of the marginal states for a quick appearance

like GA & WV & MS & ND & LA & AR - and especially drop into AK !!!

PLEASE team Obama - make some stops in these states & stick it into McCain & Palin's face that this is a 50 state referendum/election.

to get that strong mandate for change, you need not only votes in congress but the broad support even in states that you might not carry - but could if more effort is shown that their opinion matters

spread out the offense even more in the next 3 weeks

better than playing prevent defense IMHO