I don't usually try and prognosticate in which direction the tracking polls are liable to move, but it looks to me like the debate may have been a pretty significant help for Barack Obama.
The Zogby-Reuters poll is already out. From reading Zogby's write-up, it sounds like Obama must have had about a 9 point lead in Thursday's interviewing and, oh, a 5-6 point lead in Wednesday's interviewing. This compared with a 2-point lead over the Sunday-Tuesday window, before the debate occurred. (Zogby's party ID weightings are screwy, but we'll discuss that at another time; the poll should be fine for inferring trendlines).
Research 2000 had Obama winning Wednesday's daily sample by 12 points, as compared with 9 on Monday and 8 on Tuesday.
Or take a look at the most recent Rasmussen polling. They put five polls out tonight: Obama by 3 in Florida, Obama by 1 in North Carolina, Obama by 16 in Michigan, Obama by 8 in New Jersey, and McCain by 7 in Indiana. From among that set of polling, the Indiana result is poor for Obama, and the New Jersey result is a little below expectations, but the North Carolina and Florida numbers are pretty good and the Michigan number is very good. Obama's two worst polls from that group -- Indiana and New Jersey -- were conducted on Tuesday, principally before the debate. The other three, which were stronger for him, were conducted on Wednesday, after the debate.
So, I don't know. Take this with a grain of salt. But there are some hints that Obama may be on track to post some of his strongest numbers yet as we head into the weekend.
10.10.2008
Debate May Have Helped Obama
@ 1:31 AM
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Glass smashed at Dems' Denver HQ
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10660404
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First came the hate and rabble rousing, then the Nuremburg rally, then the Kristallnacht.
I realise I am panicking about the polls right now, but I am a life long Democrat, Red Sox fan and am used to living through British [non] summers. Things aren't done till there done.
the funniest part of the Trooper gate report is that Palin and her aides refused to answer questions and now they are complaining no one interviewed them! I insists---logic and coherence does not seem to be part of their tool belt.
Becky--I am glad you liked the piece on Buckley I too think we should have more of that and less of the hate mongering.
If yopu cant read the new thread, click on the thread title and the thread loads.
Markymark: worried because of a blip going from 11 to 10? Look, honestly, I don't think Obama is actually going to win by 10. As long as the averages are in the 5-10 range Obama is fine. And actually, he's probably fine a bit below that too.
Poker,
You are a douchbag.
You pass yourself off as the only expert in this situation. If true, give the rest of us the benefit of your wisdom, instead of asserting that nobody else can possibly understand this situation.
I'll put my experience up agains yours any day on this issue, since I have experience in the indusry, and you appear to be involved only to the extent of uderstanding the pricing models involved. BFD.
You are a walking expression of hostility, with your condescending attitude towards anyone who engages you on this issue. And I don't need to be either a lawyer or a numbers guy to see you for what you are.
I thought you might have some useful input, but all I hear from you is the "I'm smarter, don't bother me" attitude.
markymark--yep I get you. Have a glass of something and take a deep breath. We have 25 days to go.
The greater trend is this: Obama has a big national audience, his numbers jump up for several days to a week then slowly start coming back down again as McCain's campaign continues to descend into violent madness.
So you need a big Obama "win" like the debate, every week or so to keep up the numbers. Which I guess is why he buying up a 30 minute block on every single channel and station in the country the Wednesday before the election (I thought it should be the Thursday, but whatever).
Post-Obama big event, his numbers go up to +10-12 then slowly slump to +5-6. So his perma-number is 5-6 ahead, -4 for the Bradely effect and +1 for the cell-phone effect.
Markymark
Thanks!!
I'd like to see the fall of the stock market graphed against the polls. What would that look like?
Yes, I agree with you on that take regarding the full faith and credit clause...
There probably will be many conservative states that will not recognize same-sex civil unions/marriages consumated in other states. That means there will be obvious challenges against those states. Which brings this type of a situation eventually to a Supreme Court decision.
It's up in the air right now based on the SCOTUS makeup... the majority opinion in Lawrence v. Texas utilized the clause to uphold in this regard. The court is substantially more conservative now than when Lawrence was decided though.
Regardless of whether the court mandates same-sex union recognition amongst all states, I don't see how they possibly would touch the individual state decisions. So at worst, the same-sex couples would just need to stay away from the blood red states to be recognized.
This site is a numbers gals' dream! Nate is everything. This site is Crack to me.
What makes this even more plausible to be successful AGAIN is that McCain's campaign is already planting the seeds that Obama is a terrorist. It wouldn't be that much of a jump to say "I told you so" if bin Laden came out as appearing to support Obama. It would completely support the right's angry mob mentality.
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^^ very nice
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