I don't usually try and prognosticate in which direction the tracking polls are liable to move, but it looks to me like the debate may have been a pretty significant help for Barack Obama.
The Zogby-Reuters poll is already out. From reading Zogby's write-up, it sounds like Obama must have had about a 9 point lead in Thursday's interviewing and, oh, a 5-6 point lead in Wednesday's interviewing. This compared with a 2-point lead over the Sunday-Tuesday window, before the debate occurred. (Zogby's party ID weightings are screwy, but we'll discuss that at another time; the poll should be fine for inferring trendlines).
Research 2000 had Obama winning Wednesday's daily sample by 12 points, as compared with 9 on Monday and 8 on Tuesday.
Or take a look at the most recent Rasmussen polling. They put five polls out tonight: Obama by 3 in Florida, Obama by 1 in North Carolina, Obama by 16 in Michigan, Obama by 8 in New Jersey, and McCain by 7 in Indiana. From among that set of polling, the Indiana result is poor for Obama, and the New Jersey result is a little below expectations, but the North Carolina and Florida numbers are pretty good and the Michigan number is very good. Obama's two worst polls from that group -- Indiana and New Jersey -- were conducted on Tuesday, principally before the debate. The other three, which were stronger for him, were conducted on Wednesday, after the debate.
So, I don't know. Take this with a grain of salt. But there are some hints that Obama may be on track to post some of his strongest numbers yet as we head into the weekend.
10.10.2008
Debate May Have Helped Obama
@ 1:31 AM
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Think this would be a great time for all you Obama supporters to throw him a $10 donation---it is crunch time. This can be easily done at my contribution site:
http:/barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/JoePeters
Still trying to reach my goal.
But anyway you do it works for me.
my other thought for the day is ... considering the incredible volunteer/paid network that has arisen during this campaign - wouldn't it be wonderful to see that same sort of network energized to promote/help people improve their personal energy conserving, resources conserving, local neighborhood needs, etc etc etc
I'm hoping this is rumor, but I almost think the McCain's are this desparate:
http://thepoliticalcurmudgeon.blogspot.com/2008/10/pro-mccain-you-cant-trust-black-man-how.html
"You know, about the abortion issue, the thing that always strikes me is that so many of the people who are ardent about the unborn life, have less concern about the living, or, for that matter, the life of the child once it is born. Often little support for anti-war, often pro-capital punishment, and anti-welfare, early childhood education, etc. Not always, but often I see that."
Funny, they tend to think the opposite dynamic is weird.
Derek - forced abortion is a huge issue in China, where the government quite fervently encourages women in urban areas to have no more than one child. Forced sterilisation is similarly a problem, in China and also in the USA where it's been used throughout the last century to deny the right to a family life from Native, black and institutionalised women.
So yes, the right to choose goes both ways, and preserving it at a federal level is a good idea for both 'sides' of the argument.
(I'm surprised you didn't know all this already...am I the only feminist here?)
Now THIS is going for the jugular:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/1008/Obama_camp_confirms_Were_buying_half_blocks.html?showall
"Everyone is saying that the Battleground is a ten point spread, but RCP lists it as 8. What is the link to the 10 point version?"
They have a poll with 3rd party candidates in it. That one is 48-38.
There is a link to it somewhere in this post.
okay, i'm up for the $50 challenge!
* remembers having to buy groceries on credit card last pay period. *
uh....will $20 do this time around? seriously, if McNuremburg gets even 30% of the vote, it will be to the everlasting shame of America. If every one in America donates one dollar for every time they've felt physically ill by something the McCain campaign has done in the last few weeks, Obama'd be able to buy out Murdoch.
That "patriot" is a sick, sick man.
Ok. I can't put $50 down at the moment. But I will send $25 to Jim Martin in Georgia; we need the Senate as well.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/9/0301/70729/990/624483
michigan marine
10 point battleground lead when including the 3rd party option. Direct from the tarrancegroup website that conducts the poll. I dont know why RCP doesnt use this version.
48-38 Obama with 3rd party candidates
http://www.tarrance.com/files/GWU-BG-Tracking-questionnaire-week-4.pdf
http://www.tarrance.com/files/GWU-BG-Poll-charts-10.9.pdf
I think I'm close to maxing out on donations for Obama.
inkstain I think that 30 minute buy speaks to their cash position as well.
---Poker--they may not understand the economy--but they will understand that there is something very wrong with the way things have been handled over the last 8 years---and they will vote according to that.---
Sure. They'll be wrong about the economy having anything at all to do with Bush, of course, but I don't care why voters decide to do what I'd like them to do.
---Much like the recession will will hopefully clean the financial house the White House will be cleaned.---
Don't be silly. Neither of these will happen. Obama is the best option available at present, he's not a magical unicorn who will return the focus of government to helping people.
There will be incremental gains towards slowing the plundering of the middle class by the wealthy, and we'll hopefully get a few SCOTUS justices appointed that will prevent Roe and Miranda from being overturned, etc. That's the extent of the gains, though. Corporations will still write nearly all bills, it will still be vastly more expensive to be poor than to be rich, and healthcare will still be a crippling expense along with sending your kids to college.
Let's not over-idealize an Obama Presidency here. This is a candidate who because of political necessity is against gay marriage, against Single Payer Health Care, against the real tax increase required to deal with our ever growing debt, in favor if FISA, etc. He's no magic bullet, and contrary to the GOP echo chamber is center left at best.
cora said...
battkeground 48 - 38. 2nd poll showing Mccain break 40 % barrier.
REAL JOE: JUMP SHIP !!
thinking about it....
coast guard ready to help ?
Is anyone keeping track of the donations---Let's see what we can accomplish today. I hear you Vanessa---we do what we can.
"Now THIS is going for the jugular:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/1008/Obama_camp_confirms_Were_buying_half_blocks.html?showall"
The best thing about this is that in addition to a direct message to the viewing public, it also serves as terrific insurance against some kind of October Surprise smear or turn of events. If somebody comes out with some ridiculous charge or, God forbid, there's an attack on say October 20th, it would probably be too late to buy up network time. Now he has the safety net of a guaranteed block of time right before the election to use as he sees fit.
Nate :
new thread please :-)
Hey, Nate. Any comments on Yale University Professor Ray Fair's forecasting model?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aPnl.m5.6Sa8&refer=politics
He's predicting Obama will get about 52 percent of the popular vote, and his model has been right in the past 3 elections. What do you think of his model, and do you agree?
---my other thought for the day is ... considering the incredible volunteer/paid network that has arisen during this campaign - wouldn't it be wonderful to see that same sort of network energized to promote/help people improve their personal energy conserving, resources conserving, local neighborhood needs, etc etc etc---
Maybe it will rain gumdrops, too!
im almost maxed too, and my wife as well.
I have been selling self designed tee shirts at www.barackstartees.com and donating the proceeds
---The best thing about this is that in addition to a direct message to the viewing public, it also serves as terrific insurance against some kind of October Surprise smear or turn of events. If somebody comes out with some ridiculous charge or, God forbid, there's an attack on say October 20th, it would probably be too late to buy up network time. Now he has the safety net of a guaranteed block of time right before the election to use as he sees fit.---
The best thing about it is that it forces the McCain campaign to consider the same, and they can't use RNC money for a candidate buy.
Maybe Obama will challenge Palin to a 1 on 1 game for the half hour.
Anything right now is better Poker.I have been around the block a couple of times and am not a polyana---but even if the changes are incremental it will work for me.
This site is chock full of smart libs, so I got a question.
This paranoid gutter campaign the right is running right now is sourced from 2 reasons. My question is which is more powerful for them.
#1 They're suddenly aware that they might lose power that they've basically held for 28 years to what they consider a left-winger. This makes them sick beyond belief.
#2 Whether consciously or subconsciously, it makes them disgusted that Obama is black and obviously in the lead.
How many people will vote McCain ? let's see.. took 15 days from 48 to 38. He lost 10 points which is 20 % of his base. So lets assume he loses 1 in 5 of his remaining BASE every 10 days. In 26 days he will lose another 20-25 %.
He will end up with 15%
brooklynkevin said...
He's predicting Obama will get about 52 percent of the popular vote, and his model has been right in the past 3 elections. What do you think of his model, and do you agree?"
My guess is he agrees since his model is hovering around 51.8%. :)
eric - none of the above. They genuinely believe that conservative principles are the only true American way and that liberalism will lead America to lose its identity as the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world.
Did you all see Larry King last night. Loyal Conservative Republican women are angry at the McCain campaign. They basically think if you can't win fair, you shouldn't win. They're destroying their party and Palin is a joke. They're not going to vote for McCain. McCain is worse than Dole to me.
barely above 8000 again...
---#1 They're suddenly aware that they might lose power that they've basically held for 28 years to what they consider a left-winger. This makes them sick beyond belief.
#2 Whether consciously or subconsciously, it makes them disgusted that Obama is black and obviously in the lead.---
They just want to win. It's that simple. They have no other options. Any consultant who didn't recommend this to them should be immediately fired and never work in politics again.
InkStain said...
eric - none of the above. They genuinely believe that conservative principles are the only true American way and that liberalism will lead America to lose its identity as the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world.
Not that I need to preach to the choir, but it's very obvious that the exact opposite is true. Bastardized reagan Conservatism is what has brought us to this point, almost solely.
Think it is number one since their conservatism has lead to America losing it's identity as the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world.
The Battleground poll has an 8 point margin today -- not a 10 point margin. I think it was 51 to 43% or something like that.
Rasmussen stayed at 5. Will be interesting to see Gallup today.
Fox News on TV said they have state polls coming out in a couple hours with Brit Hume.
My guess is that the block will be a townhall format. Maybe like the Hillary Hallmark channel thing -- but on a channel that people actually watch.
---They genuinely believe that conservative principles are the only true American way and that liberalism will lead America to lose its identity as the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world.---
Hahahahahaha. Please. Preposterous. If you could guarantee McCain could win the election if he had to abandon Iraq and Afghanistan and nationalize banking and energy, he'd do it tomorrow.
The agreement between Fair's model and Nate's model is remarkable, considering that they use completely different methodologies. Nate's model is entirely poll-driven, whereas Fair ignores the polls and looks at the state of the economy. That both models converge to nearly identical results is evidence for the validity of both.
Agreed. But it's always important to remember that partisans on both sides are real people who genuinely believe what they believe for rational reasons.
NamVet said
Wonder where Guiliani is setting up his crisis center---the last one was such a good choice....
HQ are in Wasilla. Resistance will start from only Red State left.
"The best thing about it is that it forces the McCain campaign to consider the same, and they can't use RNC money for a candidate buy.
Maybe Obama will challenge Palin to a 1 on 1 game for the half hour."
I think it's pretty much a given that McCain can't match this - what I do think might happen is that Fox will refuse Obama's buy offer and instead give both candidates a half-hour for free. They've done it in the past, and it's their best way to level the playing field for McCain while being ostensibly neutral. Of course, by that point the election might completely be a foregone conclusion, instead of very close as it is today.
Mrinsight22:
I think that Nate uses the version of the polls that includes 3rd-party candidates. So the 10-point margin of the Battleground poll will be relevent for this site.
I do find it odd that RCP doesn't report on the 3rd-party version of Battleground. After all, they have a separate page to track polls that include 3rd-party candidates.
Very close to a foregone conclusion, not a very close race, is what I mean
McCain's gutter politics have destroyed his baseline numbers in the last 48 hours. The trackers are remarkable. He's lost about 5 points or so in all of them. The only exception being Rasmussen, which is always an outlier with regard to movement.
Obama has gained about 5 points in Zogby, Research 2000, Gallup, HOTLINE, Battleground in the last 2 days.
That much shouldn't even really still be a available to Obama. This looks like it could be a full-scale implosion of the McCain candidacy. As people pay closer attention to the se two chocies, the choice couldn't be more clear.
McCain losing endorsements due to negative campaigning:
http://www.mlive.com/grpress/news/index.ssf/2008/10/former_governor_milliken_backs.html
[First time poster... relatively new addict!]
My guess is that the block will be a townhall format. Maybe like the Hillary Hallmark channel thing -- but on a channel that people actually watch.
I think that Obama is going to deliver one of his nifty speeches. Rhetorically, he's at his best when using these long blocks of time.
--Agreed. But it's always important to remember that partisans on both sides are real people who genuinely believe what they believe for rational reasons.--
Yes and no. The partisans on both sides make arguments they think will appeal to the masses. Occasionally there are, by sheer coincidence, genuine. There are very, very, very, few conservative thinkers who actually believe that supply side economics is actually a viable way to fund government. What they do believe is that you can sell tax cuts to most people, and that eventually government might be forced into collapse from crippling debt leading to essentially anarcho-capitalism, which is the long term goal.
mrinsight22, the REAL margin is 10 points. Look at the links below.
48-38 Obama with 3rd party candidates
http://www.tarrance.com/files/GWU-BG-Tracking-questionnaire-week-4.pdf
http://www.tarrance.com/files/GWU-BG-Poll-charts-10.9.pdf
those who are maxed out might consider giving to down ticket candidates or the dnc. Also I think Obama has a voter protection or legal fund of something like that---great investment.
---I do think might happen is that Fox will refuse Obama's buy offer---
They've already accepted it contingent on there being no World Series game 6.
So...not that I'm complaining (as the numbers are good), but I thought RCP was eliminating party-researched polls. Then today they posted Strategic Vision (R) polls for Ohio and Florida and incorporated them both into their RCP averages. Am I missing something? Again, definitely not complaining - OH+2 and FL+8 - but still, it seems inconsistent.
Speaking of 3rd party - the other daily trackers (Ras, Gallup, Hotline, Zog) don't include third parties right?
Wouldn't it be more useful if they did?
---Wouldn't it be more useful if they did?---
Only if you think it's really viable that Barr or Nader will pull 1% or greater somewhere. In some ways it doesn't matter, as either is unlikely unless it's a landslide anyway.
You are on the money Poker.
The humanistic view on abortion is centered around the idea of physical pain.
The fetus is thought to develop the necessary sensors after the first trimester.
Roe vs Wade restricts free abortion after that point. So do laws in other countries like the UK. The more advanced the pregnancy the more grave the reason for the pregnancy has to be.
Currently it is impossible that government micromanage abortion laws because it is so inefficient. If we lived in a perfect society with a perfect government abortions would not be a major problem. So legally the argument ended with Roe vs Wade.
Also who do you punish?
Another thing you can do if you're maxed out (or have no money) volunteer at your local Obama HQ for phone canvassing.
Last week I made a bunch of calls to New Mexico. I think I may have even snagged a couple of new votes for Obama. Felt great!
Hey guys - those who are donating to Obama - want to get some free goodies for your donation?
Use my fundraising page!
Battleground indicates that Barr and Nader are pulling 3% combined, and that those votes are coming out of McCain's numbers by a 7:1 margin. That's a pretty significant effect.
---Another thing you can do if you're maxed out (or have no money) volunteer at your local Obama HQ for phone canvassing.---
I prefer to spend my money hiring people to challenge voter registration in rural GOP strongholds.
Obama Predicted McCain's Negative Attacks Back On July 30.
Joe Biden Basically Calls John McCain A Wuss.
I love these two videos. I'm telling you, I've not been more enthusiastic about Obama/Biden before. Every day I get more excited about voting for them. I've also never before been as absolutely disgusted by McCain/Palin. The low down dirty campaign they are running is absolutely despicable.
nam vet - I'm going to donate to Obama using your page today.
I think polls always overestimate the third-party vote. Those are often 'protest' votes. Most of the people answering that way will simply not show up to the polls.
@clubok
Battleground indicates that Barr and Nader are pulling 3% combined, and that those votes are coming out of McCain's numbers by a 7:1 margin. That's a pretty significant effect
Exactly! Those numbers were what prompted my original post. And then you get folks going on about the Ron Paul effect in Montana but how will we know because Ras. just does a straight horse race in its Montana polling
---Battleground indicates that Barr and Nader are pulling 3% combined, and that those votes are coming out of McCain's numbers by a 7:1 margin. That's a pretty significant effect.---
Meh, it is if you care about margin of victory as opposed to victory. Those margins almost certainly disappear if the race closes. It's easy to vote for Barr when you're sure McCain is going to lose your state by 10, if he might win, it's much harder.
Palin to Appear on SNL
Cindy Adams: "Sarah Palin is doing Saturday Night Live. Not Tina Fey doing Sarah Palin doing Saturday Night Live. But the Sarah Herself. She has already OK'd it. She's booked. It's confirmed. Done deal. Sketches are being sketched as we speak. She -- eyeglasses, haircomb, designer jacket and trunkful of gosh-darns, golly-gees and gol-dangs -- will be on SNL Saturday night, Oct. 25. Sarah's rehearsal time has already been penciled in for Friday the 24th. And it's because she wants to do it. "
Folks...
Dont forget that Wright's book comes out on the 15th. We know he isnt too thrilled with Obama throwing him under the bus...so lets see if Wright has some bombshells of his own.
After all, an Obama win kills guys like Wright, Jackson, and Sharpton.....who's "Whitey Keep us Down" mantra would be killed with an Obama win.
Just sayin'
---"Sarah Palin is doing Saturday Night Live. Not Tina Fey doing Sarah Palin doing Saturday Night Live. But the Sarah Herself. She has already OK'd it. She's booked. It's confirmed. Done deal. Sketches are being sketched as we speak. She -- eyeglasses, haircomb, designer jacket and trunkful of gosh-darns, golly-gees and gol-dangs -- will be on SNL Saturday night, Oct. 25. Sarah's rehearsal time has already been penciled in for Friday the 24th. And it's because she wants to do it. "---
Could have told you this on Monday. I probably did, actually.
Thanks Josh
---After all, an Obama win kills guys like Wright, Jackson, and Sharpton.....who's "Whitey Keep us Down" mantra would be killed with an Obama win.---
Right, because being the black guy responsible for Obama losing the election would make you a superstar in the black community. Good thinking.
aerofanatic, take a look at everyone's 401k's. Nobody cares.
nam vet - I couldn't get your link to work... ?
Nader's actually taking more votes than Barr. I think a lot of those votes are from people who can't bring themselves to vote for a Black, and also can't bring themselves to vote for a Republican. Whether they vote or stay home, it's the same to me - just as long as they don't switch to McCain at the last minute.
This effect may well matter in some close states, like MO and IN. And margin of victory does matter. I want to see Obama win with a clear mandate, so we don't have the other party finding some excuse to gripe and undermine him, like "Bush stole the election," or "Clinton only won because of Perot."
As for the notion that those margins would disappear in a close race, try explaining that to Al Gore.
eric, I believe that McCain and most of his people are infuriated that Obama is looking like he is going to win largely because they think that he has not paid his dues. They are, of course, ideologically opposed to him as well, but I don't think they are openly racial about it.
Look at Bush II. He's done less for the african-american population than most anyone, yet one can hardly deny that he has a very good record on elevating minorities to high positions in government. I don't buy the Republican=racist theme, at least not from my perch up in northern New England.
Derek-
The determination of personhood is when the fetus is capable of surviving outside of the mother on its own. Until that time, it's not a person. It's part of the mother, a growth in her womb, feeding off of her. Once you get to about 24-26 weeks up, a fetus could theoretically survive if emergencies required a premature delivery.
Before then? No. It simply can't. That's why doctors will try to assist mothers who wish to attempt to save problematic pregnancies with severe complications to get over that specific date hump.
Before then, it's simply a woman's choice. You state your own mother chose to keep you. Why would you be so callous as to disallow another woman, who you don't know and don't care about, in the same situation to make her own decision?
If you eliminate choice, you are essentially declaring that a pregnant woman's life and citizenship is worth less than a collection of cells.
---I want to see Obama win with a clear mandate, so we don't have the other party finding some excuse to gripe and undermine him, like "Bush stole the election," or "Clinton only won because of Perot."---
This will happen if he wins 500 EV and 80% of the popular vote. You really believe the party that blames Democrats for deregulation is going to think "Gee, Obama won 54% of the popular vote, I guess we should just see how he does"
I know this is old news, but O +8 in FLORIDA from STRATEGIC VISION?!?!?
WOW
:D
I am afraid for our country. Not just for where Obama would take us, but rage in the streets when people find out about the fraud perpetrated by ACORN and the Obama campaign. While such conduct is misdirected, because we always deserve the president we elect. Right now we just must not deserve a good president.
There will be no honeymoon for Mr Obama. He will not be recognized except by Europe. Our enemies are not planning on how to take advantage of his weakness.
there is no Wright book sorry to disappoint the nuts praying for this.This was debunked months ago as I understand it.
Josh this is the link http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/JoePeters
aerofanatic, you say Wright's book is coming out on Oct. 15. How come no pre-buy on Amazon.com? His daughter has denied that he is on the verge of publishing a book. Care to link for me?
acousticMB
Thanks for the great input. Its great to see the enthusiasm the rest of the world supports Obama. I feel that this is another reason to vote for "That one". I believe the world will give a selective sigh of relief if Obama wins.
---If you eliminate choice, you are essentially declaring that a pregnant woman's life and citizenship is worth less than a collection of cells.---
That they're equal, actually. Your life isn't worth less than mine because you can't legally murder me.
I can solve the abortion crisis tomorrow. Have a national referendum on abortion, record those who are in favor of restricting or outlawing abortion and charge them each $10,000 for each child born to a woman who decided she wasn't ready to have a child for whatever reason.
Then have the referendum again in six months. Bang! Instant consensus on the right to choose. After all, we all know that human life is only valuable if you're not paying for it.
Yeah, the racism of the McCain base is really getting out of hand.
I miss Ron Paul. He was honest and respectable: http://tinyurl.com/66o79q
---I am afraid for our country. Not just for where Obama would take us, but rage in the streets when people find out about the fraud perpetrated by ACORN and the Obama campaign.---
This is just the tip of the iceberg. There's an entire team of voting machine hackers funded by George Soros ready to steal Ohio and Florida. It doesn't matter what McCain does, the election is over.
---While such conduct is misdirected, because we always deserve the president we elect. Right now we just must not deserve a good president.
There will be no honeymoon for Mr Obama. He will not be recognized except by Europe. Our enemies are not planning on how to take advantage of his weakness.---
The worst thing that can possibly happen for Al Queda or Iran is an Obama presidency. The massive increase in power and influence they've gained over the last seven years would be largely wiped out.
I wouldn't put it past their social theorists to try and stage an attack around the election to try and help McCain win. They're really in big trouble if it's Obama.
I heard one pundit say last night (can't remember if it was on MSNBC or CNN) that the reason McCain is pandering to the base may be because his own internals are so bad, he needs to shore them up. This is not what the Hail Mary selection of Sister Sarah was supposed to do. McCain's campaign has tanked along with the economy.
It's pretty interesting how on occasion, the whisper campaign people drop by and say something then disappear. I see it happen on numerous sites. It's like there is a small army of them that must go from site to site and coordinate this stuff. I suppose it wouldn't be too difficult and would only take a dozen people or so to make things viral.
The internet, if harnessed, can be a powerful tool, example being Obama's networking web site.
On the other hand, trying to chase down a whisper campaign can be a serious uphill battle.
"rage in the streets when people find out about the fraud perpetrated by ACORN and the Obama campaign"
Thanks for the laugh.
Sarah Palin = Top of the Ticket?
Have y'all noticed the McCain/Palin ads at the top of the screen, now featuring Sarah Palin solo with the caption "A Proven Maverick." That's "maverick" singular - and, astonishingly, no photo of John McCain!
It seems fairly obvious to me - and yet, I find no commentary on it in the blogosphere - that some strains in the GOP/McCain camp, in an effort to further galvinize the base (?), are running a secondary campaign for Sarah Palin and viewing John McCain (in terms that are increasingly explicit) as a conduit, or at best placeholder, for what is ultimately a Palin-driven campaign. From her subversive "What? No Michigan?!" comments (a balm for disgruntled party chairs) to her preemptive Rev. Wright comment to her tireless push on the Ayers tactic (contrary to McCain's wavering), one thing seems clear: Sarah Palin is the personality and rhetoric driving McCain's campaign. And party members across the country have taken notice.
Watching McCain's campaign, I find myself acutely aware of Palin's naked ambition, and her desire to protect her brand as a rising star while the ship to which she hitched herself not 2 months ago gradually tanks. Not saying she's a saboteur, but... seems that something akin to a tandem, under-the-radar Palin campaign is underway.
Am I the only one who had to google ACORN? I've really had no idea what you guys had been talking about these last few days.
The answer was such an anti-climax too
I noticed that people were talking about gay marriage in this thread so I thought I'd offer my thoughts.
Because all the social conservatives say "marriage should be between a man and a woman" and the gay and lesbian community is saying "we just want equal rights" - I'm curious why this idea is never brought up...
Why don't we just practice complete separation of church and state? States can stop recognizing marriages and rather just recognize a civil union. The civil union can grant any two people the rights that couples would get. Then a "marriage" can be left specifically to churches. And each church can decide for themselves what they want their definition of marriage to be.
So, any two people can get a civil union and get all the states rights of any other couple. Then if you want to get "married" go to a church that accepts you and get "married."
That means that churches can decide who they want to be married and if a church doesn't allow gay people to marry, then a gay couple can just say "forget you, we're going to a more inclusive church" and get married in another church.
The argument that social conservatives have where they say "marriage should be between a man and a woman because that's the definition in the Bible" is a broken argument because the Bible shouldn't be the decision maker of any state's legal definition of anything... that goes against the basic tenet of separation of church and state.
Someone got their logic backwards.
A McCain presidency would be the best thing for Al Qaeda, Iran, etc. They already have seen his playbook over the last 8 years and know he keep the US military and diplomactic agencies preoccupied.
Same words my wife used last night.
becky, I had only heard of ACORN because they got in trouble in Kansas City during the 2006 election. it's always the same thing, a volunteer making up registrations to make more money. no evidence that it ever led to fraudulent votes.
Ted Striker - many of the benefits granted by a marriage license by the federal government, not state level. Social Security benefits for instance.
There is also the matter of the US constitution:
"full faith and credit shall be given in each of these states to the records, acts, and judicial proceedings of the courts and magistrates of every other state."
---Why don't we just practice complete separation of church and state? ---
Because we don't. Why is Christmas a Federal holiday? Why are there prayers every day on the floor of the House and Senate. etc. etc.
"Social Conservatives" need to be dragged out of their prejudices, or more importantly, their kids do. When Gay Marriage is an anachronistic term that confuses kids who don't understand why gay folks would ever have been barred from marriage, then we can worry about real separation of Church and State.
Poker and others,
It is time to admit that the MBS market is insolvent.
The market will not unwind itself, because no player will concede the fundamental insolvency, resulting from the value of the outstanding MBS obligations exceeding the value of the underlying real estate collateral. Further, the first-mover to admit this truth will probably lose the most, so there is unlikely to ba a voluntary first-mover.
The only possible alternative is a procedure similar to a reorganization under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code. Chapter 11 itself is inapplicable, since most of the SPEs were purposely created as entities which are not eligible for relief under the Bankruptcy Code.
In my opinion (as both a former bankruptcy lawyer and also formerly as a lawyer for a sub-prime lender), the only possible alternative to unfreeze the credit markets is to create an entity to bring the stakeholders together to undertake an orderly reorganization of the existing MBSs and SPEs.
Without a neutral entity to propose and enact a reorganization of the MBS market, I do not believe that the markets will unfreeze.
Thoughts? I am preparing a detailed outline of what such a plan would entail, and any feedback is appreciated.
@ Jack-be-nimble said...
"I am afraid for our country. Not just for where Obama would take us, but rage in the streets when people find out about the fraud perpetrated by ACORN and the Obama campaign. While such conduct is misdirected, because we always deserve the president we elect. Right now we just must not deserve a good president.
There will be no honeymoon for Mr Obama. He will not be recognized except by Europe. Our enemies are not planning on how to take advantage of his weakness."
Jack, you are such an expert on democracy and legitimacy! Could I respectfully add, though, that Uruguay, South Korea, Springfield (MO) and most likely the rest of the universe are going to "recognize" him as well?
Counsel--as soon as you said MBS and SPEs I was lost---I'll let greater minds chime in.
This from Fox News: There will be new Fox News polls out at 1pm today, and the host said, if you don't think the Obama-Ayers connection is effecting the numbers, wait til you see this.
It's worth noting their poll a few weeks ago had Obama up 6.
>>Why don't we just practice complete separation of church and state? States can stop recognizing marriages and rather just recognize a civil union
This is by and large how it works in Britain. Government recognizes civil unions. The marriage part is optional and is recognized by the church (temple, mosque etc.) but has no legal significance.
Makes a lot of sense. Funny too because officially Britain is still a Christian state and the Queen is the Defender of the Faith
I wrote a letter to the McCain site, expressing outrage over the way their campaign has gone. I said that they are running a vindictive, negative campaign and that some of their supporters are expressing angry racial sentiments and that some of them would like to lynch Obama. I told them that I, for one, will stay as far as I can from them if they ever come to campaign anywhere near my vicinity. I am a supporter for Obama, but at the same time, I am disappointed in McCain-Palin in the way the campaign has gone. I turned McCain off when he comes on TV campaigning and hardly can stand Palin now.
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said "Counsel--as soon as you said MBS and SPEs I was lost---I'll let greater minds chime in."
Nam,
Sorry for the lapse into lingo. MBS = Mortgage Backed Security. SPE = Special Purpose Entity (the entity formed, and which is the "owner" of the underlying mortgages).
>>This from Fox News: There will be new Fox News polls out at 1pm today, and the host said, if you don't think the Obama-Ayers connection is effecting the numbers, wait til you see this.
Whatever the new Fox numbers - I'm sure it would be gross oversimplification to pin any movement to the Obama-Ayers "connection"
TV got to make their money I suppose
---It is time to admit that the MBS market is insolvent.---
Of course it's not "insolvent". This would imply the balance of future payments on all mortgages involved was less than zero. This is clearly not the case, and no one argues it is. The problem in the MBS market is price discovery. Because the initial pricing models often literally didn't account for the current situation and level of risk, there's no easy way to do this. It will occur at some point, however, and it's quite likely massive fortunes will be made via the buying of most of the instruments in question well below fair value.
---The market will not unwind itself,---
OF COURSE IT WILL. The only way the market won't unwind itself is if there is panic and government does the wrong thing.
---because no player will concede the fundamental insolvency, resulting from the value of the outstanding MBS obligations exceeding the value of the underlying real estate collateral.---
This isn't the case. It's not close to the case. Your argument is equivalent to arguing that a simple mortgage in foreclosure is *valueless* because the home value is now $100,000 instead of $150,000.
---Further, the first-mover to admit this truth will probably lose the most, so there is unlikely to ba a voluntary first-mover.
The only possible alternative is a procedure similar to a reorganization under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code. Chapter 11 itself is inapplicable, since most of the SPEs were purposely created as entities which are not eligible for relief under the Bankruptcy Code.
In my opinion (as both a former bankruptcy lawyer and also formerly as a lawyer for a sub-prime lender), the only possible alternative to unfreeze the credit markets is to create an entity to bring the stakeholders together to undertake an orderly reorganization of the existing MBSs and SPEs.---
This can't occur without price discovery. Doing so without price discovery is the sort of massive mistake that could lead to abject failure of private credit markets.
---Without a neutral entity to propose and enact a reorganization of the MBS market, I do not believe that the markets will unfreeze.
Thoughts? I am preparing a detailed outline of what such a plan would entail, and any feedback is appreciated.---
There is no such thing as a "neutral entity" when determining the price of assets. No one can do this for any asset. There is no "real value" of anything. All there is what people will buy or sell the asset for. Forcing arbitrary pricing is a giant mistake and opens the door to fraud or simple mistakes in valuation of *AN ENTIRE MARKET*. Is this really the solution you think makes sense? A government entity arbitrarily deciding who does and doesn't make or lose trillions?
Can you even conceptualize the fallout of this? Just nationalize the mortgage industry in the US and make the FED the sole lender of mortgages. The consequences would be far less severe.
--->>This from Fox News: There will be new Fox News polls out at 1pm today, and the host said, if you don't think the Obama-Ayers connection is effecting the numbers, wait til you see this.---
10 to 1 it's a poll specifically about the connection, not the election. Ie: People don't like it, but it's not impacting their vote.
Poker, that is false. They do national polls every 2 weeks. I'll post them when they are announced live on The Live Desk.
didn't Ayers win Chicago man of the year or something?
The separation of church and state was a term first used by Jefferson describing a wall of separation between church and state, specifically the Establishment Clause which forbids the US from having a state church. Praying on the senate floor or taking days off for Christmas doesn't violate the Establishment clause because it doesn't establish any church as the national church. Of course one could and people have, argue that such things favor certain religions over others.
---Poker, that is false. They do national polls every 2 weeks.---
Uh huh. With internals they use to sell them, every 2 weeks.
When I say "state" I'm talking about all government, not just state government. Separation of church and state = separation of church and government. E.g. the social security administration should switch their definition as well.
But really, it's just an argument based on semantics. "Marriage" may be the term utilized by social security and certain states... but there is no reason why another state could not switch the term. A given state switches the definition for any new unions in their state to "civil union" from "marriage". That state can always be accepting of people who were joined by a marriage in another state and I would assume they would be since their state is the liberal state that accepts all.
The full faith and credit clause would not be detrimental, it would actually protect people who got a civil union in a state with a new "civil union" definition who moved to a traditional "marriage" state.
is that 1 pm est?
Gallup:
51-41 Obama.
I suppose whatever they're doing their internals must show benefit because they continue to bring up Ayers, stoke doubt etc.
Funny how no other polling outfit shows any real effect, but Fox claims there is one. Hmmm.
Jason, the religious fundamentalist (Palin supporters) hates this of "separation of church and state".
Jesus said that too. But the religious fundamentalist are ignorants.
McCain had a good day on Thursday according to Gallup
Yes, Ayers was Chicago Citizen of the Year 1997.
*Yawn* Ayers-Obama is the biggest non story ever.
Good news for McCain!!!
He´s only -10 in Gallup!!!.
He can win easily with 41%.
darÃo said...
Good news for McCain!!!
He´s only -10 in Gallup!!!.
He can win easily with 41%.
lol
Insolvency is certainly the problem. And it seems like a big problem.
anybody got the fox numbers ?
---Insolvency is certainly the problem.---
Nope.
The worst thing that can possibly happen for Al Queda or Iran is an Obama presidency. The massive increase in power and influence they've gained over the last seven years would be largely wiped out.
Agreed,
McCain's got no support outside of the US except for Al Queda, Iran, possibly North Korea and Possibly half of the UK. Al Queda and Iran, are the only parties that could benifit from a continuation of GOP administration.
Fox News is garbage propaganda.
I don't really care what their push poll says.
GALLUP POLL:
Obama: 51
McCain: 41
[Obama loses a point from his 11pt lead]
FOX NEWS POLL:
Independent Vote:
Obama by two 34-32.
The Gallup poll is GREAT NEWS for JOHN MCCAIN!
The Bradley Effect is at least ten points, and when you the repub voter suppression efforts, this is over...
---anybody got the fox numbers ?---
There are no numbers. It's an internal question. They just teased a 2% move to McCain among independents.
------Poker, that is false. They do national polls every 2 weeks.---
True. What's it like being such a giant sucker? Seriously? Is it sort of that you just have to stop doing one mindless action ordered by propaganda when a new one shows up?
Actually McCain didnt change - so his Thursday was the same as his Monday.
Obama had a thursday which was 0.51-1.49 worse than his monday.
What´s the result from Fox Poll?
"I am afraid for our country."
I *was* afraid when it looked like the guy running the most incompetent, idealess and dirty campaign in decades appeared he might win.
But if assholes like you are afraid, then that means the rest of us have at least some hope for the future.
"FOX NEWS POLL:
Independent Vote:
Obama by two 34-32."
Wow, if that's considered good news by Fox robots, then Obama is really crushing.
state polls coming out ?
Ha Buckely Jr just endorsed Obama
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama/
Sarah Palin and the religious fundamentalist might read this.
"Jefferson's Advice
In 1787, Thomas Jefferson wrote a letter to his nephew Peter Carr. Jefferson never had a son of his own, and his nephew often played that role. In this letter, written while Jefferson was living in France, Jefferson offered advice for a young man just beginning to make his way in the world. He discussed the intellectual and cultural attainments such a young man should strive for.
In the section dealing with religion, Jefferson wrote, "Fix reason firmly in her seat, and call to her tribunal every fact, every opinion. Question with boldness even the existence of a god; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blindfolded fear".
It is with great shame that I tell you that any politician who said something like that today in my country could not be elected to public office. Note that Jefferson did not advise his nephew to stop believing in God - merely to have the courage to doubt. That would be enough to sink his political career today.
It is ironic that I am here at a time when the wall of separation of church and state in America is under sustained and relentless assault.
Challenges
We face several major challenges:
• Faith-Based Initiatives: Religion in America has traditionally been funded with voluntary contributions. Bush wants to change that and allocate as much as $2 billion in taxpayer funds to religious organizations. Under this theory, the religious groups would provide various social services such as counselling for those wrestling with drug and alcohol addiction, job training, aid to the homeless and so on. The problem is, there would be no protections for those in need to shield them from unwanted religious coercion. In other words, there would be nothing to prevent fundamentalist churches from pressuring the needy to take part in religious worship before receiving any aid.
In addition, religious groups want access to the public treasury but also seek to retain the right to hire only their own fellow believers. Jobs could be funded by the state but restricted to certain types of Christians.
• Creationism/Intelligent Design: We face constant attempts to remove the teaching of evolution from our public schools. Some Americans believe that the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs and humans lived at the same time. There is an old cartoon called "The Flintstones" in which this was the case, but modern science tells a different story.
Nevertheless, these attacks against science go on, and since most public schools in America are subjected to local control, many young people learn very little about evolution.
• Privacy rights/abortion/human sexuality: The Religious Right wants to control our lives from the moment of conception until the time of death - and they want the right to determine the latter. They intervene in the private matters of adults and launch crude attacks against gay Americans. They seek to ban all abortion and restrict certain forms of birth control. Even the most intimate details of our personal lives are fair game for Religious Right control.
At the same time, thanks to Religious Right pressure, American teenagers learn next to nothing about sex education in many schools. As a result, the United States has one of the highest teen pregnancy rates in the Western world.
• Public education and libraries: Fundamentalist Christians seek to turn our public schools into vehicles for the promotion of conservative Christianity. Ninety percent of American children attend public schools, reflecting a variety of religious and philosophical backgrounds. Given this diversity, it is essential that our schools remain neutral on questions of theology. The Religious Right seeks to upset this neutrality.
Our libraries are also under attack. Fundamentalists seek to remove certain books or restrict access, often under the claim of "protecting" children. They behave as if parents are not capable of determining which books are appropriate for their own children.
• Symbolic union of Church and State: Recently, our Supreme Court ruled that government buildings may, under certain conditions, display the Ten Commandments. Attempts are being made to put the Ten Commandments up in courthouses, sending the message that American law has a religious basis.
The claim is made that the Ten Commandments are the foundation of American law, when this is plainly not the case. In fact, there are no laws against worshipping idols, committing blasphemy, coveting your neighbour's goods or failing to honour your parents.
• Make-up of the federal courts: We have just learned that Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor is retiring, which will dramatically affect the balance on the court. Aside from this, we have seen determined efforts by Bush to stack the courts with opponents of church-state separation. These judges reject the views of Jefferson and James Madison, insisting that religion and government should be brought into a closer relationship.
Madison's Stance
But our founders knew why that was a problem. If you read the writings of men like Thomas Jefferson and James Madison today, they seem obsessed with the European experience. They had good reason to be. Church and state had worked in partnership there for so long, and the result had been oppression and tyranny.
In 1785, Patrick Henry made a proposal in Virginia to tax citizens for the support of ministers of the Christian religion. Henry probably thought he was exercising benevolent foresight. After all, allowing people to choose which version of Christianity they will support is better than forcing them to support one version, right?
Not to James Madison. Madison knew why Henry's proposal was wrong. And to stop it, he penned one of the great documents in the history of religious freedom: The Memorial and Remonstrance Against Religious Assessments.
This document is essentially a list of 15 reasons why people should not be forced to support religion against their will. In number 7, Madison writes: "Because experience witnesseth that ecclesiastical establishments, instead of maintaining the purity and efficacy of Religion, have had a contrary operation. During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What have been its fruits? More or less in all places, pride and indolence in the Clergy, ignorance and servility in the laity, in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution."
Madison's support for church-state separation was stronger even than Jefferson's. As the primary author of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, Madison speaks with authority when he comments on separation of church and state. Madison supported separation of church and state in part due to his experiences. As a young man living in Virginia, he in 1774 saw several men languishing in jail because they were Baptists who had dared to preach their doctrines on the street. This was illegal in the officially Anglican colony.
Madison was incensed. He was especially angry that some ministers worked with the state to strip away the religious freedom rights of others. He wrote, "That diabolical, hell-conceived principle of persecution rages among some and to their eternal infamy the clergy can furnish their quota of imps for such business. This vexes me the worst of anything whatever."
As President, Madison was presented with two bills that he believed violated separation of church and state. One would have given federal land to a church, the other would have given an official government incorporation to a church. Madison vetoed them both, telling Congress that the measures violated the First Amendment.
Late in his life, when he was in retirement, Madison wrote a series of essays that touched on church-state separation. In these essays he opposed military chaplains and presidential proclamation for days of prayer. Madison noted that as President he issued such proclamations during the War of 1812 but said he had been careful to make them "absolutely indiscriminate and merely recommendatory."
Not a 'Lie of the Left'
Today there are those who would destroy Madison's handiwork. A prominent television preacher, Pat Robertson, has called the separation of church and state a "lie of the left" and an invention of the Communists. Even the (recently deceased) Chief Justice of our Supreme Court, William H. Rehnquist, has written that the wall of separation between church and state "is a metaphor based on bad history" and called for it to be "frankly and explicitly abandoned."
So you see, our challenges are many. Yet I believe we will ultimately prevail. This is not to say we won't have to go through a dark period first. We will. Yet we must continue this fight, if not for our own generation than for the next and the one that comes after that.
There are some positive signs. In a recent poll, two- thirds of all Americans said they believe religious leaders have too much influence over the government. Other polls show that the number of Americans who express skepticism over organized religion and identify themselves as non-theistic is growing, slowly but surely.
America is in for some rough years. We will be forced to fight old battles all over again. We may be often on the defensive. Yet I believe in the end we will win, and our system of separation of church and state will prevail.
Why will we win? Because we are right. Our system works. We are right. And sometimes - sometimes - that is enough".
Robert Boston is Director of Public Relations of Americans United for Separation of Religion and State.
at 3 and 6 they said Ras had polling coming out. Anyone know the states?
lat said...
Ha Buckely Jr just endorsed Obama
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-10/the-conservative-case-for-obama/
* OMG *
DAMN! I wonder if we could get Buckley if he was still alive? I still have a small hope to get George Will to our side...come on George!
>>Obama had a thursday which was 0.51-1.49 worse than his monday
With rounding errors his thursday could have been 0.01 worse than his Monday. Still I'm sure some repub is cracking open the champagne sonewhere
The rage is moving votes. People are scared to death of where Obama would lead the country.
Obama's lack of truthtelling and his refusal to answer the questions asked is finally allowing the chickens to come home to roost.
Poker,
To say that the MBS market is not insolvent because expected future cash flow exceeds the indebtedness is fatuous. The MBS market clearly is insolvent, and to pretend otherwise is ridiculous.
You are ignorant of reorganization proceedings, which have been used successfully in the US to permit companies to continue operations after disposing of debts which would have destroyed otherwise sound businesses.
In a "pot plan" reorganization, it is unnecessary to value the assets in order to proceed. The stakeholders agree to accept pro rata shares of the amounts realized from the assets, and the realizations are placed into a pot for distribution.
Valuation is unnecessary, as long as the stakeholders agree to taking some reduction, in return for a share in realizations over time.
Further, a reorganization can be set up to permit mortgage servicers to re-underwrite existing mortgages to reflect both the borrower's ability to repay and the current collateral value.
What is required is stakeholder buy-in, not any "magic" in determining a certain number.
Many successful reorganizations under US bankruptcy law have taken place as a result of stakeholders agreeing to accept payments from a pot over time, rather than killing an existing business. Why would the mortgage market be different? As someone who has been involved in the mortgage market and securitization issues, I can tell you that the answer is "no, they are not different."
Please explain your hostility.
Hahaha. Obama +7. Obama +16 among women.
Fox suckers are the funniest.
It's been about 650 comments since my last comment and I see through this last page abortion is still being discussed here and there.
I apologize for taking it to heart last night, but I really think abortion is one of the main issues that people have to agree to disagree with. Whatever opinion someone takes on it, their views are generally strong and it's just one of those topics.
Anyway, I'm very happy to see MO and IN have just a slightly deeper shade of light blue. Also happy to see WV pretty white, and MT, ND, and the two districts of NE get pinker!
Off to read some news to with my 1:17pm morning coffee!
James Madison, principal author of the constitution:
"The civil Government, though bereft of everything like an associated hierarchy, possesses the requisite stability, and performs its functions with complete success, whilst the number, the industry, and the morality of the priesthood, and the devotion of the people, have been manifestly increased by the total separation of the church from the State." (1819).
Dario - hyperlinks please!
James Madison, principal author of the constitution:
"The civil Government, though bereft of everything like an associated hierarchy, possesses the requisite stability, and performs its functions with complete success, whilst the number, the industry, and the morality of the priesthood, and the devotion of the people, have been manifestly increased by the total separation of the church from the State." (1819).
James Madison, principal author of the constitution:
"The civil Government, though bereft of everything like an associated hierarchy, possesses the requisite stability, and performs its functions with complete success, whilst the number, the industry, and the morality of the priesthood, and the devotion of the people, have been manifestly increased by the total separation of the church from the State." (1819).
October 10, 2008 12:18 PM
"The rage is moving votes. People are scared to death of where Obama would lead the country."
Who, exactly, is "scared to death?" I'm not.
---Please explain your hostility.---
I have no hostility. Good luck with your "plan". Meanwhile, I'll draw up plans for the reform of the legal system since I've worked with Lawyers on options buys.
Fox News Polls
Obama: 46
McCain: 39
[Obama up with women up 16]
Obama up 15 on economy, 20 on health care and 5 on energy. McCain leads by 5 in Iraq and 14 in terrorism.
Bill Ayers Connection:
32% less likely
[29% of independents]
61% no difference
McCain Keating Connnection:
16% less likely
78% no difference
Actually Vanessa , I thnk its more that they have run out of options, they can't compete on issues so this is all they have left.
Does anyone else think that tonight when Sarah Palin drops the ceremonial first puck at the home opener of the Philadelphia Flyers that it could turn into an "Obama" chant? That would be sweet!
dario---do you know how much I appreciate you posting those? Thank you! This is why I came to live here!
poker samurai said...
Hahaha. Obama +7. Obama +16 among women.
Fox suckers are the funniest.
WTF ?
they said McCain is back ?
Link ?
Becky Sharp @12:17:
>>Still I'm sure some repub is cracking open the champagne somewhere
Jack-be-nimble @12:17:
>>The rage is moving votes
QED!
"The rage is moving votes."
True. Palin/McCain's hate-filled strategy is moving votes into Obama's column. Meanwhile, intelligent conservatives are throwing up their hands and either voting Obama or sitting this one out.
Separation of Religion and State in America.
http://www.iheu.org/node/1760
The "big news" is that 29% of independent voters say Obama/Ayers makes them less likely to be Obama voters.
So, using Fox logic, McCain only draws 3% of independents on other issues.
Hahahahahahaha.
continue to spread the word: I'm confused now ... are you posting those numbers in triumph or in panic? 'Cause I see cause for McCain panic in them...
McCain at 39 in latest Fox poll? What a sad, pathetic, piece of shit McCain is. What a complete and total loser.
James Madison, principal author of the constitution:
"The civil Government, though bereft of everything like an associated hierarchy, possesses the requisite stability, and performs its functions with complete success, whilst the number, the industry, and the morality of the priesthood, and the devotion of the people, have been manifestly increased by the total separation of the church from the State." (1819).
---Fox News Polls
Obama: 46
McCain: 39
[Obama up with women up 16]
Obama up 15 on economy, 20 on health care and 5 on energy. McCain leads by 5 in Iraq and 14 in terrorism.
Bill Ayers Connection:
32% less likely
[29% of independents]
61% no difference
McCain Keating Connnection:
16% less likely
78% no difference---
So..it's an internal question, right sucker?
Right.
"Meanwhile, intelligent conservatives are throwing up their hands and either voting Obama or sitting this one out."
Yep. And just wait until November 5th.
McCain has burned all of his political capital, and then some. He is finished.
There is NO Wright book.
No book
At least repeat, Right wing talking points that are somewhat based in reality. On the other hand, are there any?
time to start packing
the ship is sinking
:-(
Sarah Palin and the religious fundamentalist might read this.
"Jefferson's Advice
In 1787, Thomas Jefferson wrote a letter to his nephew Peter Carr. Jefferson never had a son of his own, and his nephew often played that role. In this letter, written while Jefferson was living in France, Jefferson offered advice for a young man just beginning to make his way in the world. He discussed the intellectual and cultural attainments such a young man should strive for.
In the section dealing with religion, Jefferson wrote, "Fix reason firmly in her seat, and call to her tribunal every fact, every opinion. Question with boldness even the existence of a god; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blindfolded fear".
It is with great shame that I tell you that any politician who said something like that today in my country could not be elected to public office. Note that Jefferson did not advise his nephew to stop believing in God - merely to have the courage to doubt. That would be enough to sink his political career today.
It is ironic that I am here at a time when the wall of separation of church and state in America is under sustained and relentless assault.
Challenges
We face several major challenges:
• Faith-Based Initiatives: Religion in America has traditionally been funded with voluntary contributions. Bush wants to change that and allocate as much as $2 billion in taxpayer funds to religious organizations. Under this theory, the religious groups would provide various social services such as counselling for those wrestling with drug and alcohol addiction, job training, aid to the homeless and so on. The problem is, there would be no protections for those in need to shield them from unwanted religious coercion. In other words, there would be nothing to prevent fundamentalist churches from pressuring the needy to take part in religious worship before receiving any aid.
In addition, religious groups want access to the public treasury but also seek to retain the right to hire only their own fellow believers. Jobs could be funded by the state but restricted to certain types of Christians.
• Creationism/Intelligent Design: We face constant attempts to remove the teaching of evolution from our public schools. Some Americans believe that the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs and humans lived at the same time. There is an old cartoon called "The Flintstones" in which this was the case, but modern science tells a different story.
Nevertheless, these attacks against science go on, and since most public schools in America are subjected to local control, many young people learn very little about evolution.
• Privacy rights/abortion/human sexuality: The Religious Right wants to control our lives from the moment of conception until the time of death - and they want the right to determine the latter. They intervene in the private matters of adults and launch crude attacks against gay Americans. They seek to ban all abortion and restrict certain forms of birth control. Even the most intimate details of our personal lives are fair game for Religious Right control.
At the same time, thanks to Religious Right pressure, American teenagers learn next to nothing about sex education in many schools. As a result, the United States has one of the highest teen pregnancy rates in the Western world.
• Public education and libraries: Fundamentalist Christians seek to turn our public schools into vehicles for the promotion of conservative Christianity. Ninety percent of American children attend public schools, reflecting a variety of religious and philosophical backgrounds. Given this diversity, it is essential that our schools remain neutral on questions of theology. The Religious Right seeks to upset this neutrality.
Our libraries are also under attack. Fundamentalists seek to remove certain books or restrict access, often under the claim of "protecting" children. They behave as if parents are not capable of determining which books are appropriate for their own children.
• Symbolic union of Church and State: Recently, our Supreme Court ruled that government buildings may, under certain conditions, display the Ten Commandments. Attempts are being made to put the Ten Commandments up in courthouses, sending the message that American law has a religious basis.
The claim is made that the Ten Commandments are the foundation of American law, when this is plainly not the case. In fact, there are no laws against worshipping idols, committing blasphemy, coveting your neighbour's goods or failing to honour your parents.
• Make-up of the federal courts: We have just learned that Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor is retiring, which will dramatically affect the balance on the court. Aside from this, we have seen determined efforts by Bush to stack the courts with opponents of church-state separation. These judges reject the views of Jefferson and James Madison, insisting that religion and government should be brought into a closer relationship.
Madison's Stance
But our founders knew why that was a problem. If you read the writings of men like Thomas Jefferson and James Madison today, they seem obsessed with the European experience. They had good reason to be. Church and state had worked in partnership there for so long, and the result had been oppression and tyranny.
In 1785, Patrick Henry made a proposal in Virginia to tax citizens for the support of ministers of the Christian religion. Henry probably thought he was exercising benevolent foresight. After all, allowing people to choose which version of Christianity they will support is better than forcing them to support one version, right?
Not to James Madison. Madison knew why Henry's proposal was wrong. And to stop it, he penned one of the great documents in the history of religious freedom: The Memorial and Remonstrance Against Religious Assessments.
This document is essentially a list of 15 reasons why people should not be forced to support religion against their will. In number 7, Madison writes: "Because experience witnesseth that ecclesiastical establishments, instead of maintaining the purity and efficacy of Religion, have had a contrary operation. During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What have been its fruits? More or less in all places, pride and indolence in the Clergy, ignorance and servility in the laity, in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution."
Madison's support for church-state separation was stronger even than Jefferson's. As the primary author of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, Madison speaks with authority when he comments on separation of church and state. Madison supported separation of church and state in part due to his experiences. As a young man living in Virginia, he in 1774 saw several men languishing in jail because they were Baptists who had dared to preach their doctrines on the street. This was illegal in the officially Anglican colony.
Madison was incensed. He was especially angry that some ministers worked with the state to strip away the religious freedom rights of others. He wrote, "That diabolical, hell-conceived principle of persecution rages among some and to their eternal infamy the clergy can furnish their quota of imps for such business. This vexes me the worst of anything whatever."
As President, Madison was presented with two bills that he believed violated separation of church and state. One would have given federal land to a church, the other would have given an official government incorporation to a church. Madison vetoed them both, telling Congress that the measures violated the First Amendment.
Late in his life, when he was in retirement, Madison wrote a series of essays that touched on church-state separation. In these essays he opposed military chaplains and presidential proclamation for days of prayer. Madison noted that as President he issued such proclamations during the War of 1812 but said he had been careful to make them "absolutely indiscriminate and merely recommendatory."
Not a 'Lie of the Left'
Today there are those who would destroy Madison's handiwork. A prominent television preacher, Pat Robertson, has called the separation of church and state a "lie of the left" and an invention of the Communists. Even the (recently deceased) Chief Justice of our Supreme Court, William H. Rehnquist, has written that the wall of separation between church and state "is a metaphor based on bad history" and called for it to be "frankly and explicitly abandoned."
So you see, our challenges are many. Yet I believe we will ultimately prevail. This is not to say we won't have to go through a dark period first. We will. Yet we must continue this fight, if not for our own generation than for the next and the one that comes after that.
There are some positive signs. In a recent poll, two- thirds of all Americans said they believe religious leaders have too much influence over the government. Other polls show that the number of Americans who express skepticism over organized religion and identify themselves as non-theistic is growing, slowly but surely.
America is in for some rough years. We will be forced to fight old battles all over again. We may be often on the defensive. Yet I believe in the end we will win, and our system of separation of church and state will prevail.
Why will we win? Because we are right. Our system works. We are right. And sometimes - sometimes - that is enough".
Robert Boston is Director of Public Relations of Americans United for Separation of Religion and State.
I probably shouldn't care but wtf does this actually mean? anyone?
Bill Ayers Connection:
32% less likely
[29% of independents]
61% no difference
I'm SO glad these McCain/Palin hate rallies are getting coverage. The videos are utterly frightening
My point about the full faith:
States have started passing, or trying to pass, constitutional amendments which not only ban civil unions or marriage licenses between same-sex partners, but also the recognition of the same from other states.
So just because MA or CA allows a marriage or civil union doesn't mean that a bank in TX must consider a mortgage application as being from a married couple, or that a state pension fund will make payments to a survivor, or that Social Security will make payments, or that the IRS or state level tax returns can be filed jointly, etc.
I believe those state amendments violate the full faith clause, and could be challenged at a national level. Only a successful challenge, striking down those amendments, would allow one state's civil union law to be meaningful outside that state.
Just thoughts from a financial conservative and social progressive.
Sarah Palin and the religious fundamentalist might read this.
"Jefferson's Advice
In 1787, Thomas Jefferson wrote a letter to his nephew Peter Carr. Jefferson never had a son of his own, and his nephew often played that role. In this letter, written while Jefferson was living in France, Jefferson offered advice for a young man just beginning to make his way in the world. He discussed the intellectual and cultural attainments such a young man should strive for.
In the section dealing with religion, Jefferson wrote, "Fix reason firmly in her seat, and call to her tribunal every fact, every opinion. Question with boldness even the existence of a god; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blindfolded fear".
It is with great shame that I tell you that any politician who said something like that today in my country could not be elected to public office. Note that Jefferson did not advise his nephew to stop believing in God - merely to have the courage to doubt. That would be enough to sink his political career today.
It is ironic that I am here at a time when the wall of separation of church and state in America is under sustained and relentless assault.
Challenges
We face several major challenges:
• Faith-Based Initiatives: Religion in America has traditionally been funded with voluntary contributions. Bush wants to change that and allocate as much as $2 billion in taxpayer funds to religious organizations. Under this theory, the religious groups would provide various social services such as counselling for those wrestling with drug and alcohol addiction, job training, aid to the homeless and so on. The problem is, there would be no protections for those in need to shield them from unwanted religious coercion. In other words, there would be nothing to prevent fundamentalist churches from pressuring the needy to take part in religious worship before receiving any aid.
In addition, religious groups want access to the public treasury but also seek to retain the right to hire only their own fellow believers. Jobs could be funded by the state but restricted to certain types of Christians.
• Creationism/Intelligent Design: We face constant attempts to remove the teaching of evolution from our public schools. Some Americans believe that the Earth is only 6,000 years old and that dinosaurs and humans lived at the same time. There is an old cartoon called "The Flintstones" in which this was the case, but modern science tells a different story.
Nevertheless, these attacks against science go on, and since most public schools in America are subjected to local control, many young people learn very little about evolution.
• Privacy rights/abortion/human sexuality: The Religious Right wants to control our lives from the moment of conception until the time of death - and they want the right to determine the latter. They intervene in the private matters of adults and launch crude attacks against gay Americans. They seek to ban all abortion and restrict certain forms of birth control. Even the most intimate details of our personal lives are fair game for Religious Right control.
At the same time, thanks to Religious Right pressure, American teenagers learn next to nothing about sex education in many schools. As a result, the United States has one of the highest teen pregnancy rates in the Western world.
• Public education and libraries: Fundamentalist Christians seek to turn our public schools into vehicles for the promotion of conservative Christianity. Ninety percent of American children attend public schools, reflecting a variety of religious and philosophical backgrounds. Given this diversity, it is essential that our schools remain neutral on questions of theology. The Religious Right seeks to upset this neutrality.
Our libraries are also under attack. Fundamentalists seek to remove certain books or restrict access, often under the claim of "protecting" children. They behave as if parents are not capable of determining which books are appropriate for their own children.
• Symbolic union of Church and State: Recently, our Supreme Court ruled that government buildings may, under certain conditions, display the Ten Commandments. Attempts are being made to put the Ten Commandments up in courthouses, sending the message that American law has a religious basis.
The claim is made that the Ten Commandments are the foundation of American law, when this is plainly not the case. In fact, there are no laws against worshipping idols, committing blasphemy, coveting your neighbour's goods or failing to honour your parents.
• Make-up of the federal courts: We have just learned that Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor is retiring, which will dramatically affect the balance on the court. Aside from this, we have seen determined efforts by Bush to stack the courts with opponents of church-state separation. These judges reject the views of Jefferson and James Madison, insisting that religion and government should be brought into a closer relationship.
Madison's Stance
But our founders knew why that was a problem. If you read the writings of men like Thomas Jefferson and James Madison today, they seem obsessed with the European experience. They had good reason to be. Church and state had worked in partnership there for so long, and the result had been oppression and tyranny.
In 1785, Patrick Henry made a proposal in Virginia to tax citizens for the support of ministers of the Christian religion. Henry probably thought he was exercising benevolent foresight. After all, allowing people to choose which version of Christianity they will support is better than forcing them to support one version, right?
Not to James Madison. Madison knew why Henry's proposal was wrong. And to stop it, he penned one of the great documents in the history of religious freedom: The Memorial and Remonstrance Against Religious Assessments.
This document is essentially a list of 15 reasons why people should not be forced to support religion against their will. In number 7, Madison writes: "Because experience witnesseth that ecclesiastical establishments, instead of maintaining the purity and efficacy of Religion, have had a contrary operation. During almost fifteen centuries has the legal establishment of Christianity been on trial. What have been its fruits? More or less in all places, pride and indolence in the Clergy, ignorance and servility in the laity, in both, superstition, bigotry and persecution."
Madison's support for church-state separation was stronger even than Jefferson's. As the primary author of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, Madison speaks with authority when he comments on separation of church and state. Madison supported separation of church and state in part due to his experiences. As a young man living in Virginia, he in 1774 saw several men languishing in jail because they were Baptists who had dared to preach their doctrines on the street. This was illegal in the officially Anglican colony.
Madison was incensed. He was especially angry that some ministers worked with the state to strip away the religious freedom rights of others. He wrote, "That diabolical, hell-conceived principle of persecution rages among some and to their eternal infamy the clergy can furnish their quota of imps for such business. This vexes me the worst of anything whatever."
As President, Madison was presented with two bills that he believed violated separation of church and state. One would have given federal land to a church, the other would have given an official government incorporation to a church. Madison vetoed them both, telling Congress that the measures violated the First Amendment.
Late in his life, when he was in retirement, Madison wrote a series of essays that touched on church-state separation. In these essays he opposed military chaplains and presidential proclamation for days of prayer. Madison noted that as President he issued such proclamations during the War of 1812 but said he had been careful to make them "absolutely indiscriminate and merely recommendatory."
Not a 'Lie of the Left'
Today there are those who would destroy Madison's handiwork. A prominent television preacher, Pat Robertson, has called the separation of church and state a "lie of the left" and an invention of the Communists. Even the (recently deceased) Chief Justice of our Supreme Court, William H. Rehnquist, has written that the wall of separation between church and state "is a metaphor based on bad history" and called for it to be "frankly and explicitly abandoned."
So you see, our challenges are many. Yet I believe we will ultimately prevail. This is not to say we won't have to go through a dark period first. We will. Yet we must continue this fight, if not for our own generation than for the next and the one that comes after that.
There are some positive signs. In a recent poll, two- thirds of all Americans said they believe religious leaders have too much influence over the government. Other polls show that the number of Americans who express skepticism over organized religion and identify themselves as non-theistic is growing, slowly but surely.
America is in for some rough years. We will be forced to fight old battles all over again. We may be often on the defensive. Yet I believe in the end we will win, and our system of separation of church and state will prevail.
Why will we win? Because we are right. Our system works. We are right. And sometimes - sometimes - that is enough".
Robert Boston is Director of Public Relations of Americans United for Separation of Religion and State.
real joe said, "time to start packing
the ship is sinking
:-("
Run, Joe run. You better hurry over.
James Madison, principal author of the constitution:
"The civil Government, though bereft of everything like an associated hierarchy, possesses the requisite stability, and performs its functions with complete success, whilst the number, the industry, and the morality of the priesthood, and the devotion of the people, have been manifestly increased by the total separation of the church from the State." (1819)
Slightly worrying that Obama's support ticked down a point in Gallup, but I guess with a 10 point lead its not a big deal. Maybe I am just nervous and want to see the polls ticking up all the time to ease my fears. Sometimes its hard to be so far away from the center of the battle. I think I might relax if the polls started to show a 60-40 landslide. 50ish to 45ish makes me just a touch anxious about why my fellow Americans can't make up there mind, its not like McCain is seeming presidential at the moment.
Becky, it means only Republicans and right-leaning independents care about Ayers, which means his utility is useless.
McCain needs the Ayers numbers to be well above 50%, probably closer to 75%, in order to have a chance.
Dario - my mouse wheel's starting to squeak with all this extra scrolling!
FWIW - my theory on what is leading Mccain to campaign in states such as Iowa (which appears counter-intuitive) is that the campaign is going where ever they can get the largest crowds, to add to the impression that they are doing better than they really are. In other words, the state chairs are pulling together events and whomever can pull together the largest (guaranteed) crowds is where McCain/Palin go.
The events speak to the strength of the state party or state chairs, not the McCain/Palin ticket.
A corollary to this theory is that it may be getting harder to pull together large crowds in the states where he needs to be in the time required, hence taking what he can get......
Any thoughts about this?
MarkyMark- Could be pure sampling issues, four of the other trackers (R2000, Hotline, Battleground, Zogby) showed movement towards Obama (though that could be noise too).
Obama rally in OH
http://us.cnn.com/video/live/live.html?stream=stream3
antmatic - thanks, thought so - the numbers as posted were ambiguous
Any link to this Fox News "poll"?
Though Jeremiah Wright repeatedly told the press in the spring that his tell-all memoirs were being published in October, he has no doubt been "persuaded" by Obama supporters in Chicago that such a publication may not be good for his "health." Thus there will be no book. The Chicago Way.
On the bright side, maybe it means Obama will use thug tactics in dealing with America's foreign enemies.
MarkyMark - I worry about a lot of things but not gallup tracking down a point. As I said, a 0.01% downshift in Obama support on Thursday vs. Monday could cause that...maybe an Obama supporter was busy Thursday and a McCain supporter wasn't
RE: "Ayres Connection"
So, 32% of the 39% voting for McCain in the FOX Propaganda Network poll are "less likely" to vote for Obama.
Glass smashed at Dems' Denver HQ
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_10660404
---Becky, it means only Republicans and right-leaning independents care about Ayers, which means his utility is useless.
McCain needs the Ayers numbers to be well above 50%, probably closer to 75%, in order to have a chance.---
Not to mention the actual question text wasn't given.
"Does Obama's admitted connection to convicted terrorist William Ayers..."
"Does McCain's connection to Charles Keating, where McCain was exonerated from any wrongdoing..."
markymark---you have to take all of this together and see the trend. Anyone who expects Obama's numbers to climb indefinitely is being too optimistic. Be cautiously realistic instead--a 10 point gallup lead at this point in the race with all the trackers trending up or at the same level is very very good.
come on in, Real Joe, the water's fine!
real joe, do you have a AP feed to your house or something?
Thank you Poker for pointing that out about the questions and the form in which they were asked. This is exactly why partisan outfits like Fox News doing polls give unreliable numbers.
I'm sooooo impatient for Troopergate legislative briefing to conclude. But apparently it's only 9:30 there (vis-a-vis 13:34 EST), so I guess we could be waiting a while.
Congress can't even run a data center. Gee, what happens when you keep adding more servers to the same electrical circuit?
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/e-mail-down-on-capitol-hill-2008-10-10.html
By the way, not sure if anyone posted this before, but a very interesting article on Palin in the Guardian over here today
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/10/uselections2008-sarahpalin1
couple of excerpts that I found interesting in a quite fair article, given the left leaning bias of the Guardian
'With her charismatic appeal and the backing of many of the town's evangelicals, Palin triumphed in the mayoral contest, winning by 616 votes to 413. Stein, a Lutheran, recalls a local radio station reporting that the town finally had a Christian mayor.' [616 votes gets you the experience to run for President? WTF]
'In office, Palin did not push the conservative social agenda at the heart of her election campaign. She couldn't: she was running an authority little bigger than an English parish council - albeit one with a $6m budget - and her main responsibilities were for planning applications, road maintenance, and the town's 13-strong police force.'
'Her critics in Wasilla say she made the job appear more difficult than it was because of her confrontational style of management. She sacked the police chief, other senior staff resigned'
'An editorial accused the mayor of confusing her 616 votes with a "coronation", adding: "Palin promised to change the status quo, but at every turn we find hints of cronyism and political manoeuvring."'
'Rebecca Braun, editor of Alaska Budget Report, a non-aligned political newsletter, adds: "If she hasn't pushed the teaching of creationism in schools, it's because she hasn't pushed the teaching of anything in schools. She hasn't promoted her rightwing views because she hasn't promoted any views at all. She really hasn't done very much."'
(Obviously I haven't been as fair as the Guardian in my quoting!)
test
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
real joe, do you have a AP feed to your house or something?
i have some feeds ;-)
@lat
Thanks for posting the Buckley Jr piece - it makes for a good read.
The country needs more of this brand of conservative and less of the rabid hatemongers that are thronging McPalin rallies these days.
gg said...
test
hi :-)
fiatluxury said...
come on in, Real Joe, the water's fine!
Still Packing
Haha
@liberal_defender_of_freedom
>>real joe, do you have a AP feed to your house or something?
Ha! yesterday I asked real joe if he was reuters!
Troopergate live blogging from the Alaska Daily News.
Apparently the public report (not including confidential exhibits) is 263 pages long.
Hahahahahahaha. McPalin are looking really, really fucked right now.
So the "good news" from the Fox poll was that McCain is getting his clock cleaned by only seven points and is trailing badly among women?
Anyone having problems pulling up the new thread? 538 doesn't open beyond the first part of the new blog by Nate.
subterranean said...
Troopergate live blogging from the Alaska Daily News.
Apparently the public report (not including confidential exhibits) is 263 pages long.
Hahahahahahaha. McPalin are looking really, really fucked right now.
OMG
good thing i started packing
new thread
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