If Andrew Sullivan is right and the CBS-NYT poll to be released this evening shows a 14-point lead for Obama, we shouldn't actually regard this as all that shocking a result.
Presently, our best estimate is that Obama has about an 8-point national lead. However, CBS polls have leaned about 3 points more Democratic than the average this year. In other words, our baseline expectation is that a CBS poll should be showing about an 11-point for Obama right now.
You wind up to the Obama side of the +/- 3 point margin of error, and that's how you get to 14 points.
Not that this is good news for McCain exactly -- the balance of polling over the past 48 hours indicates that Obama's true lead is probably more like 8 points (maybe even inching upward toward 9) than 6 or 7. But it's not quite as bad as it will look on the surface.
UPDATE: Yes, the topline number is indeed Obama 53, McCain 39, although the version that we prefer -- with third party candidates included -- gives Obama "only" a 12-point lead.
10.14.2008
CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
@ 6:20 PM
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256 comments
Now I know why women use androgynous names on the internet...
Eric-
I think Texas is also a probable gainer.
And while VA, NC, GA and FL are all at various levels of possibility for Obama being a Virginian I doubt that they have a real future as solid dem after the election and the south coast region will be purple battleground territory for the next decade at least. It has swung quickly to a lot more blue but that doesn't mean that it can't be barely red in the 2010's if the R's fight back correctly. And if gains aren't solidified here the 'minimum winning coalition 2008' of Kerry + IA + NM + CO (or maybe NV if you count a tie) isn't going to be a net gain (and Co might be soft after the election). If there is regression in the mountain west or the south coast the 2012 map is unfavorable so the work done now must be extensive and hopefully cement a large part of that shift. I do think that Obama's ground game will make the future work much easier.
I agree Frank----I hate to see us get as arrogant as the Republicans. I would hope that election of Obama can bring about a changed politics---where one side is not always wrong or right. Where we can come together---the pendulum always keeps swinging---sometimes your on top sometimes you are down low. I think the bad feelings from the Clinton years have poisoned the well long enough.
It is not good for the country to be so polarized.
Mule Rider,
You might need to change your name to hit on girls, no? :)
Obama is using the patch and the gum, no smokes for BO.
THIS IS A CENTER LEFT
I don't argue with people - mostly because you dont know what the fuck you are talking about. I show data.
Here's the reality:
THE US IS LEFT OF CENTER,
Data to backup my position (Mule will never produce the same). I referr you to Paul Rosenberg’s writings over at Open Left
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8826
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6662
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6656
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3105
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2981
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2978
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2975
I also take one issue as an example- healthcare and the polling data on it:
http://www.pollingreport.com/health3.htm
On this issue along, the polling data is rather extensively in favor of a progressive position. On issues like mortgages, student loans, trade, etc- decidedly liberal.
The take away: This country is nowhere near center right. The conservatives confuse their ability to divide and conquer with agreement with their agenda. The other take away is that the GOP as it presently exists can only thrive by labeling things incorrectly- what is conservative versus liberal? Etc. What’s Republican versus Democratic. Playing off of ignorance. These not the same things. People engage in cognitive disssonance when they can't comport their political views with their labels or partisan or personality drive voting patterns.
In 2004, people in MS voted for Bush by a large majority said he supported inporting drugs when in fact he did not. He made that clear repeatedly during the debates. Many of these people said they saw the debates.
Talk as much as you want about what you feel personally about the US being center right or whatever else. The data disagrees with you. It's that simple. No spin, not bullshit. Just reality check time.
Are you trying to tell us something Fred?
Yes, dear...
Matt J.H., sorry but Reid and Pelosi are not liberals. Far from it. Pelosi is my representative. Trust me, she's despised by San Francisco progressives because she is decidedly NOT liberal. Voting for the war? FISA? Sorry, these are not liberal positions.
I'm voting for Cindy Sheehan, who is running against Pelosi.
When people say Pelosi is a liberal, they are drinking the MSM kool aid on her. Don't believe everything Faux news tells you.
Drudge to be fair has the CBS #s in red, above the Zogby #s in more normal black.
It's obvious what is going on - after a year of being called pro-Obama by the wingnuts, he is gearing up to be the main anti-Obama site after his inauguration. He doesn't like McCain, he knows he's going to lose. He's only trying to go back to the future circa 1997.
By the way- some idiots keep talking about Democratics becoming as arrogant as the GOP. THe problem isn't us becoming arrogant. It's us overcoming the batter wife syndrome that we've developed over the last 30 years under Reaganism in which we dont even realize what the American people are saying they want by clear majorities. The arrogance by ignoring where the American people is- is yours. Because your deep seated need to be afraid trumps what they are saying over and over and over again. It allows for possibly large victories to be smaller because value time is wasted with your naccisistic need to have you fears assauged constantly rather than simply have faith that if you fight hard enough for what the American people want- you will win them for a generation.
no mc9 don't have to type user name
Please excuse the typos, but I don't want to spend much time here. I feel like much of what I just wrote could be looked up and understood by many of the posters spouting off their personal opinions as fact, but isn't because its easier to believe your opinion than check it against data.
Thanks guys - it must be the useless AOL IM setup. Looks like I might have to get a google username.
Reel, Just thinking there might be another way of looking at things--but what do us idiots know--right Reel. Relax man. And try not calling people names--it's not very becoming.
The problem with Nancy Pelosi isn't that she isn't left or right. It's that she isn't bright.
Party on people before the worst scandal in history related to BO's birth certificate grips the nation and hands the election in a platter to the Red machine.
Yeah,Mac the google name works well.
John said...
McCain voted against the ban on water boarding. He is pro-torture.
No no, not true! McCain is very opposed to the torture of American citizens! He's so opposed that h
Oh wait, the victims of water boarding aren't Americans? Nevermind then.
THe data moron is from other sources. I used Open left because it was easier than providing you with a dozen or more links per article that I linked to. If you are incapable of even cutting and pasting a link to see that in fact there is actual data being linked in the articles then there is not much I can do for you. I also link to polling data from multiple polling sources that show by about 75 percent on an issue like healthcare- the American people support government based healthcare. You can continue to ignore incovenient facts, but as I said the pendulum is swinging. You will be consigned to irrelevancy regardless of whether you pay attention to the shifts happening in the country or not.
Mule what is with the outlandish bets? How about we bet 10k that Obama wins the election?
Anyways, this week it's WV (Joe Biden sounded that horn) next week its MT, the week after it's ND and AR, and that last week it's.............TEXAS AND ARIZONA!!
You know what is so stupid about the birth certificate nonsense?
If BHO is not eligible to be president, then the country would elect Joe Biden by as big or a bigger margin.
Boy the wingnuts are pathetic. This is just too easy.
The USA is the USA. Not center-left or center-right.
Some people are center-left and others are center-right.
nam
No- there really isn't. One of the reasons we are in such a mess is as Bill Maher correctly put it- the smart people are going to let the idiots drive us into the grave. THe best way to respond to lazy people- which many of you are here- is to call you on your laziness. How much do you actually research what you think is the case rather than just repeat it as fact because you believe it?
Mule- I am not trying to convince you. You are 2 percent of the population. I am posting this data for others who are grown up enough to handle reality.
This race will show the main difference between Obama and Clinton(Bill), Bill was a fantastic politician, Obama is a once in a generation Leader. He can change that map for years to come (by actually CHANGING demographic percentages). Let's get to work!!
Not only do Americans support single payer health care by a large margin (it might be 75%, I know it's at least 60%), they support the next president doing something about health care IMMEDIATELY on taking office, even if it means taking on more debt.
I'm skeptical BO would be willing to buck his corporate sponsors and sign any single payer legislation. The biggest roadblock to a more progressive agenda in this country is the corporate donors to the Congress.
It's pretty common knowledge that Americans by and large are "center left." They support a living wage, health care that won't bankrupt them, legislation to protect the environment, and funding for public education.
The sad part is that these concepts are even considered "left of center." That's how far to the right the conservative movement has pushed this country. It's shameful. :(
@Mule
It wasn't an invitation big dummy. If you could get over yourself for a min, you'd understand I was poking fun at your often salty attitude. I shouldn't have presumed you would get that I guess. I have a good liberal man. We have no abortion issues in case of an "uh oh". You would make me go gay. :(
JK. Sorta.
"Never speak to me again."
LOL! What are you, a 10-year-old?What are you going to do if they "speak to you" again? Go run to your mommy? Yeesh.
Sorry Reel I don't have time for people like you---life is to short. You seem like a pretty bright fellow---but do have any idea of how arrogant you come off. And why do you have to continue calling people names or question their character---it's just a blog man----we're really not making decisions here.
to someperson718,
being optimisic and an envisioner are good traits but realm of reality shall grip you very seriously soon due to the massive storm brewing in Philly!
Its a moral issue with a considerable amount of gray area certainly, but I am pretty sure that no religious texts have anything to say about the moment that "life" begins.
I can't think of any christian ones. But I've read that it's well established in Islamic belief that the soul enters the foetus 120 days after conception (and even after that, the mother's life takes precedence over the foetus's, because it's an actual rather than a potential life). See for example:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/religion/religions/islam/islamethics/abortion_1.shtml
"I think that as Democrats we should really focus on using our tremendous resources to make the entire Republican Party break down weeping into their security blankie."
Well said, and that's from the top to the bottom of the ticket. I want these GOPpers to get crushed and shown for the whiny babies they are. And this country's too important to have whiny babies running it.
I've already done my part in the booth, having cast my ballot in Wisconsin last week, but I'm certainly spreading the word to my family in MO and friends in IN to make sure they get how ridiculous these clowns are, and why they have to be taken out.
NO LET UP! Yes, most independents have senisbly turned toward Obama, but make sure they don't get misled on their way to the ballot box. A big Congressional majority is what's needed to get the real market and voting reforms in place that'll finally get this country somewhere.
well nam don't let the door hit you where the good lord split you. Arrogance is ignoring the data in favor of your own preconcieved notions, and then trying to make this about personality. Your type of arrogance is why we have a frozen credit market. If I am arrogant, at least it's backed up with something. Yours is backed up by nothing.
wow.
really bored by all of you.
have a great evening
Now I'm responsible for the frozen credit market. All I'm saying is that we don't have to be arrogant if Obama wins and maybe we could try a different kind of politics.
Reelgeist -
Ain't time enough in the world to learn everything out there, follow every link, and listen to everyone's ramblings to tease out whatever truths are there. We all use our time-tested heuristics to estimate who's worth listening to and who's likely to be a waste of time. They're crude approximations and stereotypes, like as not, but we've gotta triage demands for our attention somehow.
And coming off as an arrogant dick really doesn't get you past most people's mental gatekeeper. So it really won't matter if you're right, if all you do is make everyone hate to listen to you.
Presumably you get this reaction often, though, so there's probably no reason to expect you to reconsider your approach this time. Too bad, because I generally agree with what your position appears to be.
It looks like McBush is close to flat lining on the Electoral Vote Distribution.
Folks, can't we leave the hate and name-calling at the doorstep?
Anyway, I also think that Obama will win by double digits. The McCain campaign is in a terminal spiral. People have stopped listening to him and infighting among conservatives has commenced.
I think Bob Barr might be the beneficiary of this and actually make it into the high single digits. However, he needs to get some media attention. If he does, he'll end up in great shape.
In any case, I think MR is wrong ruling out some really red states switching. TX and such might just flip.
isaac
I am going to say something weird. When I don't know something I politely say I don't know it rather than giving an opinion about it. In my profession, this is considered an oddity. When someone asks me something , and I say, I don't know the answer, they looked at me with bewilderment because they think "but I thought you would say you knew" x or y or z. I'll give you the same response I give to them- If I don't know something I don't see anything wrong with not knowing. My problem is where people [in this country] feel that they can give an opinion [in politics] without any basis for having it. There are vast subject matters of which I know nothing about. Some of them, many in fact, are in politics. The data about whether this is a center, right or left country isn't one of them. I happen to know the data. My problem is that rather than saying "I don't know what direction this country is" many here relied on opinion and cw. That's how we have gotten into so many messes in this country. I can go into other areas and point out what I mean- but one that comes to mind is the belief that corporations at one point because of idealogical cw could do and be everything in terms of public policy even on issues of fairness when under the law they are meant for a narrowly defined role- making money for investors. I however will not bore you with corporate law.
Why can't Obama close the deal with racist ignorant brainwashed pro-Bush dead-enders!?
Is it the Bradley effect?
:P
by the way- we clearly have different definitions of arrogance. i define it as making shit up with nothing to back it up other than my own opinion when clearly there is data to prove or disprove my position as wrong or right,b ut ignoring that data, and instead fixating on personality. You define it as I don't make you feel good while saying you should use data rather than basing arguments on what you feel to be the case. One is closer to the dictionary definition than the other. I will leave it to others to decide which is. See ultimately although we are talking politics, I believe there should still be an attempt aat some some of objective standard. Some of you clearly don't believe that. I suppose that's going to be the lasting legacy of Rovian up is down, left is right 1984 analysis. ignoring data is down to earth. Calling people idiots for ignoring facts in formulating their opinion is arrogant.
to xian,
well when he can't produce a simple document like birth cert what do you expect them to do ?? get a life. Dig for truth for the biggest scandal which is going to come up soon
reelgeist,
This entire conversation is the sort of OT threadjacking that I disapprove of, but what the hell - the comments are petering out on their own.
Not sure what you're trying to achieve by straw-manning me into the truthiness vs. evidence-based-argument frame in your head, but I'm not your audience even if you were doing a good job. I'm actually a big fan of facts and evidence, contra your unexplained presumption.
That said, I agree with your position regarding the actual popularity of many policy positions thought to be on the left of the political spectrum (so long as they aren't so labeled), but if I didn't already think I agree with that, your obnoxiousness would ensure that I never followed your links to find that out. If you want decision-makers (voters, jurors, blog commenters, purchasers of carpet) to adopt your positions, you first have to get them to listen to you. We can go on and on about how flawed people's filters really are, but at the end of the day, it is what it is and abstract correctness won't win the argument.
You apparently want to change minds, or you wouldn't be here offering your accumulated life's wisdom in lecture format to the ignorant masses. I'm trying to help you see how to get our ignorant asses to hear and understand you, because you're obviously failing, and that's sad.
So instead of barging in, telling us how your time is too important to spend much of it enlightening us, and dashing off in a cut-and-paste flurry, you need to first engage us - maybe start with one of us, suggest that you have a different opinion, show some conversational give-and-take. And then, when you seem like you might be a reasonable person simply expressing unfamiliar ideas, you need to make us curious about the actual facts. Offer to show how our ideas, sensible though they might seem, are actually at odds with available evidence. Maybe then you'll get some takers who weren't already on your side.
If, on the other hand, you're not trying to influence anyone, feel free to spout off into the ether. I'd rather you didn't use your techniques on positions I agree with, though.
Issac:
a) most of these conversations here go off topic quite a bit. I find it interesting you somehow thing its relevant now.
b) If you think using data in your analysis of where is the political center rather than just citing your opinion is a strawman argument- the divide between us is greater than definitions. It goes to basic reasoning. I am a big believer in not making shit up. That's not a strawman. That's how someone trying to be competent rather than an idealogue thinks. In that way, although I am not polite, I am very much like Obama. You- I am not so sure.
No, you couldn't very well be "so sure" about me, because the positions I've expressed are primarily procedural, not substantive. What conclusions could you possibly draw about my affinity for evidence from this minimal record?
To your (b), I can only laugh. When have I taken a position against the use of data where appropriate data exist? And yet you continue to assert that I'm anti-facts, with no basis in the world. Perhaps you can't tell that there are distinctions among the others you're talking at? Attributing the words of other antagonists to me because I'm the only one engaging you?
I'm not telling you that your ideas are wrong, I'm telling you that your expression of your ideas is alienating your audience. If you cared about influencing people, this would matter. If all you care about is feeling clever, knock yourself out. But I'd appreciate it if you weren't on my side while doing it.
I think any time there's a new post up, 'threadjacking' an older thread is not bad manners.
sorry, but the republican turn out will be higher than 28%. Another bogus headline to drive a story.
Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him.
Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Thursday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Vice President Al Gore may be opening a solid lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, after nearly two weeks of neck-and-neck competition. Today's figures -- 51 percent for Gore to 40 percent for Bush -- represents a significant margin for the vice president.
Widespread unease over the country’s direction and doubts about President Bush’s policies on Iraq and the economy helped propel Sen. John F. Kerry to a solid lead among voters nationwide, according to a new Times poll.
Nare has missed what appears to be the primary factor for the drop in Obama's numbers in the new PPP NC poll. The internals in the latest PPP poll shows a 5% drop in Obama's African American support since the last PPP poll and a 6% increase for McCain. This seem a real outlier given the following numbers from the last four PPP NC polls from todays tracking back with Obama total first: 87/10; 92/4; 91/5; 90/4. It would be difficult to put forward a sound explanation that would support this shift in the African American vote in NC over the last week. My view from Charlotte is that there has been no swing to McCain
Its an interesting fantasy that America even has any left wing politicians any more. Pelosi funded the Iraqi war and chose not to impeach the criminals responsible for the fabricated war from day one.
Who are the lefties Republicans continue to refer? America has NO LEFT wing at all. Social liberalism remains the province of certain university proffesors, but that's about it among the status quo. Certainly they don't refer to Howard Dean or Al Gore.
On Iraq nearly everyone but Obama(and Kucinich) kissed Bushes ass when it was obvious what was going on to anyone with at least half a brain. Obama represents a shift towards the center from the far right. McCain represents the continuation on the road to fascism and protracted global war which the GOP has intentionally put us on for whatever the reason. Quite simply put, it is their inept leadership that has insured the 14 point lead, and a clear path for Obama victory.
your site is simply rocking!!!!!!!!1
keep going
have a look at ma blogs..
lance and dude
Not the exact same poll, but NRO is questioning the methodologies of an ABC News/Washington Post Poll.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=M2RmZTI2OTUxYTUwYTAxN2FhMmRkMjUyMmUzODk1M2I=
Any thoughts on this?
Peace,
Chris
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