If Andrew Sullivan is right and the CBS-NYT poll to be released this evening shows a 14-point lead for Obama, we shouldn't actually regard this as all that shocking a result.
Presently, our best estimate is that Obama has about an 8-point national lead. However, CBS polls have leaned about 3 points more Democratic than the average this year. In other words, our baseline expectation is that a CBS poll should be showing about an 11-point for Obama right now.
You wind up to the Obama side of the +/- 3 point margin of error, and that's how you get to 14 points.
Not that this is good news for McCain exactly -- the balance of polling over the past 48 hours indicates that Obama's true lead is probably more like 8 points (maybe even inching upward toward 9) than 6 or 7. But it's not quite as bad as it will look on the surface.
UPDATE: Yes, the topline number is indeed Obama 53, McCain 39, although the version that we prefer -- with third party candidates included -- gives Obama "only" a 12-point lead.
10.14.2008
CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
@ 6:20 PM
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Nate:
One of the reasons most of us adore you is that you are one of the few people who can find a silver lining for the trailing candidate in a 14-point poll deficit!
:)
wow
Woot!?
#2 dang it.
Good call preempting that one Nate. I just read the Sullivan post and immediately switched over to see if you had anything to say about it. You are freaking freaky...reading minds like that.
That's not to say I can't think without Nate/Sean...I just choose not to.
Thats great news FOR Ronald Reagan!
Or what GayIthacan said...
14 points?!?!?!
biased or not that's just nutty business!
Taking nothing for granted. Much work to be done before and on November 4th!
53-39
O___o
Holy crap, it's true!! http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/14/opinion/polls/main4522273.shtml?tag=topStory;topStoryHeadline
O 53, M 39 among likely voters.
The 53% number for Obama in CBS, like the 53% number for Obama in the Gallup likely voter poll, is a great sign. Pollsters can't lock down McCain's ultimate support level, but that's becoming irrelevant.
David Gregory just announced it on his show.
Reuters just confirmed your information about a 14-point lead.
Call me shocked that this is turning into such a blowout.
I think it speaks volumes to how poorly Bush et al are viewed and how poorly McCain and Palin have presented themselves to the electorate.
I know all of the polls of generic Democrat versus generic Republican have consistently been very strong in favor of the Democrats this year.
But it seemed like the Republicans had a strong enough base coming in and some appeal to moderates/independents with a "mavericky" candidate that they could be competitive.
Evidently, they have alienated many of those "swing votes" and likely caused a fair amount of party defection as well.
Even if I were a Republican - which I'm not - you wouldn't catch me admitting it in public, even in a fairly conservative part of the country.
Nate,
could you talk more about potential sources of house effects?
How much, for instance, is "bias" and how much is purely methodological?
and how could such bias creep into the poll results without someone literally fudging the numbers?
CBS embarrasses itself again.
Apparently Dan Rather is announcing the poll in person.
Add in Negative Bradley effect, Cell phone effect, Underestimation of minority group turnout, Superlative GOTV, and 14% is probably about right.
my my
Learn about Obama's SECRET PLAN to implement Black Socialism in America! He must be stopped before it is too late!!
Dear Conservatives:
You lose.
Sincerely,
Patriotic Americans
Everyone except for ideologues that can't bring themselves to jump off the ship have jumped. 39%, how about that. I'm sure he'll get mre than that, but who as the last candidate in a two-party race to get that low of a number? Whoever ran against FDR in 1936 I think. I think Mondal had a number well above 39. McCain blows! Palin blows harder!
Re: Bradley Effect
Here is the Chart used to gauge "racial resentment":
1)Upset if daughter dated black
2)Disapprove of racial preferences
3)Less qualified people hired often
4)Whites lose out
5)Gone too far pushing rights
6)Poor too dependent on government
7)Blacks responsible for own condition
8)Disapprove of interracial marriage
9)Few things in common w/blacks
10)Would mind if black moved close
0-2 low
3-4 med
5-10 high
How do You score???
~Special council for the Trees...
Nate Silver's analysis that suggests a 14 point deficit for McCain is really more like an 11 point deficit, which is within the sampling error of an 8 point deficit - is tortured, but nonetheless...
GREAT NEWS!!! for JOHN McCAIN!!!
(despite it being great news, McCain is opposed to Nate's analysis because it involves torture)
It truly is an early spooky Halloween for social conservatives...and an early Thanksgiving for real Americans!! :~)
Not surprising, true. There have been several polls recently reaching into the double digits. Between this poll, and the ABC poll, the media narrative is going to be "Obama blowout", which I think is probably good for Obama. Blowout polling tends to hurt turnout on the losing side more than the winning side, which gets a bandwagon effect and boosted enthusiasm.
Overconfidence is still a risk though. I don't expect a Bradley effect, but I'm going to pretend I do to make sure I keep working hard. I'll also keep those down-ticket races at the forefront of my thoughts.
-- Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin! --
C'mon Nate, you can't claim the upper end of the margin of error as an explanation, and you know that. It could equally be true that the "real CBS number" is 17% and that correcting for the pollster bias takes it down to 14. Best guess for an honest poll is the center of its mass, adjusted for known bias. So I'm gonna say 11% seems as good as anything, and I can smile contentedly the next time I make some Obama telephone calls.
Matt W...rofl
Nah nah nah nah...nah nah nah nah...hey hey hey...gooodddbyyyeeee.....
Down two touchdowns with 24 seconds left on the clock...game over, Johnny Mac...game over.... :~) :~) :~)
Matt W said...
"McCain is opposed to Nate's analysis because it involves torture"
McCain voted against the ban on water boarding. He is pro-torture.
Learn about Obama's SECRET PLAN to implement Black Socialism in America! He must be stopped before it is too late!!
This says it all. ROTFLMAO!
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Every time you guys say the words "Bradley Effect" the baby jesus cries. Please just stop. STOP.
The hilarity of Mcliverspots epic failure is second only to Bob Dole falling off that stage.
Glad to see that liforcerenewal is so insightful as to automatically equate seeing something wrong with less qualified people being hired often as "racial resentment."
That is unbelievable.
Brad Buchsbaum: "How much, for instance, is 'bias' and how much is purely methodological? and how could such bias creep into the poll results without someone literally fudging the numbers?"
Generally it is all methodological. Non-partisan pollsters all want to get the figure as close to accurate as they can, so they all want to reduce their methodological bias. There are lots of ways it can creep in - how they poll (autobot vs human contact), what time (day or evening), what day (week day or weekend), how they get their contact list, etc. And then all the pollsters need to try to rebalance to compensate for biased samples - if they had too many old people or too many young people or too many African-Americans or too many registered Democrats (compared to the state average). The problem is that you can rebalance in a number of different ways (what age brackets you use, for example) and you essentially have to guess what the 'correct' percentage is going to be for this election, rather than looking at the percentage of elderly voters in the past election. Finally, you also have to guess who are the 'likely voters' and pollsters use a number of different questions to guess this, not just "are you going to vote this year". Since Democrats tend to have a lower turn-out a too strict definition of this creates a Republican bias while a too loose definition of this creates a Democratic bias. Of course, we won't know until the election which group had the correct bias - Nate assumes the average of all the polls is about correct, but it might be that the +3 Democratic pollster bias actually had a more accurate "likely voter" definition than average, so all of Nate's numbers will be 3 points lower for the Democrats than they should be.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the GOP thinks they can turn the tide by focusing entirely on ACORN... ceding the economic field to Obama.
@Jim:
Nate doesn't have this poll in isolation. He's got good measures of the house bias for CBS and lots of other contemporaneous polls to compare it against. In order for all the polls to be consistent with reality, either this poll has to be on the high side of the margin of error, combined with the house effect, or all the other polls are on the low side.
Occam's Razor chooses the first solution.
There's no way that when you combine all of the family and friends that I'm talking to all over the country that are Indys and Pubs who are voting Obama and say many Indys and Pubs they know are voting Obama with all of the anecedotal evidence of Pubs jumping off the bandwagon in newspaper editorials, on TV, on the intenet, Pub pols won't campaign for hi anymore, resignation in many Pub pundit voices, and the fact that nonoe of this stuff has appeared in 28 years, with the possible exception of 1996, where they still owned Congress. There's no way any of this should be a surprise. The Great Satan of our day, the Neo-Con movement is ending!!!! Hallelujah!!!! Praise Jesus, Alla, Vishnu, Yahweh, Buddha, and Bill Maher!!! All glory to all of them!!!
Doesn't surprise me too much. McCain has been running one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen. And I remember Mondale's run! (Not to mention Kerry's which was pretty bad too.) A lot of pundits are going to say that the economy tanking was what did him in, but I think it was his horrible leadership and no firm message that is making him loose.
Looks like the Surge is a success, a surge for Obama!
Poor McCain, NO surge for him!
On the contrary, the markets will probably crash some more, maybe starting tomorrow, right before the last debate!
McCain is Toast!
Mmmmmm.......Toasty!
I can almost hear the media in 1 1/2 weeks. McCain will close it to 53-45, then 53-57, and we'll be hearing about how Obama can't close the deal.
Never mind that now it is all about Obama's support. Obama won't win by more than 54-46. As long as he polls in the low 50s, he CAN'T LOSE.
Hey, F.Y.I, idiot, this is the official format the pollsters use for detecting it...Blow me!!!
No gloating no gloating no gloating! Nov 5th will give us 4 years to gloat. Keep on working!
The last majoe candidate to receive less than 40% of the POPULAR VOTE was Barry Goldwater in 1964.
He received 38.47%.
THIS is the best reference site for election data on the Internet:
"http://uselectionatlas.org/"
So, if McCain is continuing to lose ground, what is it due to?
A) Economic conditions
B) Backlash from negative ads
C) Sarah Palin's troopergate
etc.?
I think that the answer is B. I think that the Republican party is not aware that the electorate has grown up very media-consciously, and the minute they see an advertisement go into slow motion and get grainy, that they are aware that someone is trying to manipulate them.
I hope this means that elections change their character.
""Learn about Obama's SECRET PLAN to implement Black Socialism in America! He must be stopped before it is too late!!""
With the election only 3 weeks from today, and McCain/Palin falling further in the polls, get ready for lots more low-brow racists to come crawling out from beneath their rocks as an Obama presidency looms.
"Everyone except for ideologues that can't bring themselves to jump off the ship have jumped. 39%, how about that. I'm sure he'll get mre than that, but who as the last candidate in a two-party race to get that low of a number? Whoever ran against FDR in 1936 I think. I think Mondal had a number well above 39. McCain blows! Palin blows harder!"
Mondale got 40.56%. McGovern got 37.52%. Goldwater got 38.47%. But note that all three of those guys lost to incumbent Presidents, who - when popular - tend to do quite a bit better than non-incumbents.
The last major-party candidate to get under 40% running against a non-incumbent was Herbert Hoover (who was, himself, an incumbent) at 39.65% in 1932 against FDR.
From what I can tell, the most lopsided race not involving an incumbent was 1920, when Warren Harding defeated James Cox 60.32% - 34.15%. Cox's running mate in that election was FDR (good news for Sarah Palin? - probably not). I think Obama will be hard-pressed to beat that.
source: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
When is Obama going to stop chain-smoking?
TV drives me insane as it seems that Mc Cain gets so much more coverage then Obama campaign and the advertisements regarding Ayers etc. are terrible, Palin rally's get tons of coverage, she cannot give a decent interview and won't give a press conference and yet the polls come out showing us gaining. I love what I am seeing but I am not at all certain that this is just the economy that the MSM likes to talk about. This feels like far more than that. I cannot imagine that people would be willing to risk their families lives with a canidate as the Republican's try to paint Barack Obama to be just because they think a Democrat is better with the economy. I believe there is much more going on here and Obama and Biden are found to be far better leaders. Good for US
Can't wait to see it up at RCP or, can't wait to see their tortured logic if they exclude it.
Either way - GRAVY!
do not care for the Battleground tracker model [small samples, party id, no weekend polling, etc]
BUT given that the Battleground #'s reported for previous 2 dates [10/8&9] was 51-43 and today was 53-40 means...
Obama had to pull in really MONSTER sized #'s yesterday [10/13] & drop a bad day on 10/8 [post-debate] to reach a 13 point spread
they are now reporting a wider margin than R2000 - WTF
still that size lead cannot hold up, so they seem to be setting us up for a regression narrative...
but then Gallup LVII is stable at +10 and R2000 has been in the double digits for ages, plus almost every pollster is now showing Obama with 50 or more - even if the spread is not that large...
consensus is Obama @ 50+ = winner
now to hold it for the next 3 looooooooong weeks...
YEAH CBS - of course the GOPers will claim a NYT hates McCain bias
Did anyone else happen to read this, or am I just waaaaay behind the curve?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html
Too bad it can't be this good!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1936
When it's all said and done, McCain will get 45% of the vote. That's a promise.
He will lose, but he ain't fallin' below 40%. I'd bet 10 grand on it.
I wonder how the pipsqueak Tucker Bounds will spin this? Man that boy is delusional.
HAHA...Smoking is right!
HAHA...Smoking is right!
Glad to see you actually can ignore me, DCM. I knew that you had it in you.
When you see "Mule Rider" just keep scrolling.
Wow, Nate was trying really hard to spin that for Mccain. Maybe he's worried if people see a blowout his web site traffic might slow to a crawl.
To paraphrase Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, "Do you smell what Barack is cooking!?"
On November 4, Obama drops "The People's Elbow".
POSTED! RCP Avg. O +8.1! My goodness.
George Bush in 1992 received 37% of the vote, the lowest total for a major party candidate since the 1920s or earlier.
turgid:
Actually, RCP has REMOVED ALL POLL RESULTS form their left-side-of-the-screen summary of news.
Hmmmm.....
They have, however, included it in their 'Polling Margin' graphic on the right - whcih now has Obama up over 8%.
CORRECTION TO EARLIER POST: McGovern polled less than goldwater in 1972! My bad!
Carl Nyberg,
It's funny because The Rock actually spoke at the 2000 Republican National Convention. Wonder where he stands today?
There's nothing the devil loves more than smugness, and right now we're all being smug -- me included. We have to fight that and keep working, and donating to the campaign, and making sure that every single sane and reasonable human being we know gets out and votes. It's also not just about winning -- it's about winning so big they never try another Palin on us again.
Obama with his biggest lead on RCP yet. 8.1. Sure this poll may be high for him, but it makes up for that crap IBD tracking poll they had on today.
Chuck Todd on David Gregory discussing the polls right now 5:55
Thanks again for being an even keeled assessor of the polls. I love that this site is careful and methodical in the way it looks at the data and makes its conclusions. As an Obama supporter, this poll is fun news, and maybe it is where things are headed soon, but for now it looks like a fun outlier. I just hope it does not unrealistically inflate expectations for the debate. The media is losing its "tied horse race" meme, and they need some other drama to focus on. Maybe they'll start focusing on the amazing organizing and ground-game efforts of the Obama camp. It is one of the real stories this year, and it is a positive one. Even if you're a Republican, you can respect good honest labor by people supporting someone they believe in.
PS - You trolls who always claim that Nate is trying to inflate things for Obama, take not of this post. He squarely calls it for what it is, an outlier, even with it heavily favoring his preferred candidate.
40% of the country would still vote for McCain if he comes out for the debate with a chainsaw and runs it through a litter of puppies.
I take great comfort knowing that, as the US continues to diversify culturally and religiously, the Repubs will be safely marginalized into a permanent minority party. The "silent majority" will be no more.
53% O + 39% M =92
2% for 3rd parties
split the other 4%, 2.5 O, 1.5 M
55.5% Obama
40.5% McCain
See historical massacrations in first term elections:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1932
FDR 57%
Hoover 40%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1952
Eisenhower 55%
Stevenson 44%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1980
Reagan 51%
Carter 41%
I won't be comfortable no matter what until it is a done deal, because this election has opened my eyes to the complete and utter ignorance of so many Americans. I can only only hope that it IS a blow out because then my faith that at least a larger part of the population is at least *somewhat* intelligent and discriminating when it comes to sorting through information and don't just use forwarded emails as their only research criteria.
Nate: Can you provide a list of states with early voting? Does your model account for early voting (which would presumably make outcome in those states less sensitive to poll swings as time progresses toward election day)?
More important than the topline are some of the internals
69% of Americans believe Obama has the right personality and temperment to be president
People like his knowledge, calm demeanor.
Sarah Palin is cited as a major reason McCain is losing support. Again, she continues to be the LEAST favorable of the four major principals.
Voters who make under 50,000 a year think McCain will RAISE their taxes and Obama will LOWER them.
HW Bush got 37.7% in 1992. Granted, a fair portion of Perot's vote would've gone to him, but this was only a demonstration of his vulnerability.
Don't take anything for granted. We still need to work hard to get Obama in the White House!!
Chuck Todd is trying to downplay the newest polls, esp CBS +14
he said that "no one really believes that Obama is ahead by double digits" [paraphrased]
Chuck, I believe it, but then I guess you think we are nobodies...
lol
he is disappointed in the landslide & wants a close race narrative to justify his punditry... otherwise Chuck becomes irrelevant
Okay, I STRICTLY forbid any of my fellow Obama supporters from thinking this race is "in the bag". Three weeks is a LONG time, we don't know what can happen, and we Shall. Not. Rest. Until Nov. 5th!
As a former Hillary supporter, I am SO PROUD of her for working for Obama. It's made a difference too - according to the internals of the NYT/CBS poll, 82% of Hillary supporters are now backing Obama...up from 67%. Woot!!
Democrats coming home + Independents rejecting conservatism + inept McCain campaign = L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E Obama Nation!!! Take that, fiction writer Corsi!!!
*sings* Obama makes our red states blue....oooh ooh...Obama makes our red states...Obama makes our red states...Obama makes our red states blue! :~)
Dad-nabbit!
Every exit poll in 1992 showed that Perot voters would have split evenly between Bush and Clinton.
Full poll data here:
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/oct08b-politics.pdf
Fun fact from this CBS poll, and relating to what Cher was talking about -- here's the writeup about how Ayers and the Rev. Wright are coming across:
Opinions of the candidates could still change, and potential trouble spots remain for Obama, among them the fact that small percentages of voters cite Obama's past associations with Bill Ayers (9 percent) and Reverend Jeremiah Wright (11 percent) as issues that bother them.
CBS is trying to insist that Wright and Ayers could make a difference, but with around 10% of the electorate actually caring (and many of that 10% presumably hard-core Republican voters anyway), it's hard to be convinced.
Info about absentee/early voting:
http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legismgt/elect/absentearly.htm
"George Bush in 1992 received 37% of the vote, the lowest total for a major party candidate since the 1920s or earlier."
Not a fair comparison - since there is no Ross Perot in this election cycle.
The only valid comparisons are those races between 2 people who are, in effect, going to receive nearly ALL of the votes cast.
Another intersting thing in all this is it looks like Republican support is somewhere around 40-42% in all this is that except for McCain convention bounce his support has been consistently at 40-2% for months now. All that's really happened over the past 4 months (since Obama officially "won" the nomination) is that the undecideds have decided that he is President material.
@Nick5
Amen. This should be motivation for greater margins.
David: "Does your model account for early voting (which would presumably make outcome in those states less sensitive to poll swings as time progresses toward election day)?"
I think this might be impossible. To do this, you would need to know the characteristics of early voters. Consider, for example, if rock-solid voters are the most likely to early vote. All the 100% Obama and 100% McCain voters vote straight away, but the less certain voters wait until the day. This would make the result 100% sensitive to any polling changes that occur between now and then. This extreme is unlikely, but we can't know how close the reality is to the extreme so you can't factor it in. In general though, I think that Obama will be banking in a few uncertain votes during the high polling band-wagon times so it should help a bit. Furthermore, early voting creates a structural change in the voter demographics, because it should increase the voter turnout of youths, the poor, shift workers, etc to a more proportionate fraction of the vote, and this will certainly help Obama.
meconella, did you click on the link to the SECRET PLAN link? Are you really that humorless to have not recognized it as a send-up of wingnut paranoia? Good God, relax! Americans are laughing at McCain right now. He is melting down as we speak, and it's because of their paranoia.
"Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the GOP thinks they can turn the tide by focusing entirely on ACORN... ceding the economic field to Obama."
From the moment McCain reacted to Obama's convention speech by selecting Sarah Palin as this running mate, his has been the most ridiculous, worst campaign I've ever seen (Prior to that, he was using an effective Hillary-like campaign stressing his own gravitas and Obama's "not ready-ness"). Today, with the entire elecorate focusing like a laser on the economy, Palin is on Rush Limbaugh talking about ACORN. Who cares what ACORN is doing when you're going to lose by 10 million votes? Even far-right hacks like Bill Kristol know that these guys are incompetant.
And btw, the CBS poll is right in line with today's GWU/Battleground tracker - the poll that repub trolls said was the most accurate one a month ago.
This is great news, especially when you look at the internals of the polls. Even my knee-jerk Democratic cynicism is proving too weak in the face of the reality of these polls. I just wanna stand up and start singin' "Yes. We. Can."
So stunning even the trolls are on topic!
Mark Hussein in VA,
I think it's safe to say that 40% of the electorate would vote for Obama even if he did something equally or more heinous.
I wouldn't count the Republican party out or dismiss them as a permanent minority. Political cycles have been a feature for decades now. It may be only 4 years or up to 40, but the Democrats will find a way to fail.
It may be through overreach and having too much power that lends to quasi- or full blown corruption, or it may just be a new generation of very weak leaders that have awful policies, but they'll fail as a group at some point.
And since politics is more about marketing than actually leading with good ideas, my bet is that Republicans, given enough time to retool, will find a way at some point to resell themselves to the public at large and infiltrate the political scene once again.
They may not resemble the Republicans of today - in fact, it might take them disavowing the current brand of Republicanism almost entirely - but the party will re-emerge as a force in politics down the road.
Politicians from both parties are too fallible to hold on to power for very long.
This is 1980. People are no longer voting on person. They are voting on party and idealogical lines. That 39 or 40 percent is the GOP base. That's it. The electorate is coming to that same place they did after the final debate between Carter and Reagan in which they were coming to their final decision to reject liberalism. It will take quite some time- but I believe this is the end of Reaganism. I don't know what will replace it, but the GOP will morph into another party or die and be replaced by it.
I think each debate so far gave Obama a little boost of one percent (or it´s just Obama gaining one percent each week because people are getting behind him) and the final debate shouldn´t really be an exception, I wouldn´t be surprised if Obama gained even more. After tomorrow, Obama could be ahead by about 10%, not allocating the undecideds and not taking turnout into account. It seems that McCain is losing the money race, too and his attacks haven´t worked so far.
It seems that the country has accepted Obama as the new president and no innuendo-rich attacks can change it anymore.
8 of the 16 national polls including all trackers [R2000] taken since 10/9 have Obama with at least +9 spread
6 of the 16 leads are in double digits...
RCP averages their arbitrary 14 polls [including the new IDB +2] @ +8.1 tonight
no matter how you slice & dice it - those are confirmation of 'the Audacity of Hope' !!!
YES WE CAN...
I wonder if John McCain has any Stevie Nicks on his ipod? If not, perhaps this song might be a good one to have on there.
McCain will get 45% or so, minimum. To win, though, he's going to have to make up what, 10-11% nationally, between major events between now and nov. 4, the you-know-what Effect if any, any obama or biden gaffes, etc.
I don't see it happening. It's not impossible but it is highly improbable.
But don't get carried away if you want Obama to win - complacency in the Obama could easily make up a couple of those percentage points.
BIDEN PREDICTS WIN IN WV
Link
DAMN.
YIKES!!!
SHAZAMMM!!!!
People may be wondering why Rasmussen only has O +5. The 6-week part ID of +6.3 includes 30 days of Sept., averaging +4.0. The other 12 days must be +12.0. So the current party ID margin is actually about +5.7% from the fixed value used. That translate into about +4 in Pres. margin.So Ras is really running about +9. The reported value will drift up as the bad weeks drop from the ID average./mbw
Damn is right. WOW!
Confirmed BTW.
What is the state polling today?
I wonder if John McCain still has him right where he wants him?
I am forecasting a 24% lead on election day; yep... Obama with ~62% and McCain with ~37% how's that for shocking?
It's funny because back in February I said to a friend that I thought Obama had the potential to be our Reagan -- a politician who changes the game.
I feel like I'm dreaming.
can Obama win in WV ?
MuleRider:
Glad to see that liforcerenewal is so insightful as to automatically equate seeing something wrong with less qualified people being hired often as "racial resentment."
MR, that's a chart I've seen before, it's not liforcerenewal's invention, and the question isn't whether you think it's *wrong* for less qualified people to be hired, it's whether you think it's *true* that less qualified people are being hired (a typical complaint of people objecting to affirmative action).
The point of the chart as a whole is, the more of the items on the chart a subject agrees with, the higher their degree of racial resentment is likely to be.
(Tangentially, there's lots of research that to the contrary, equally or more qualified black candidates can't even get a callback compared to equally or less qualified white candidates.)
SCOTT
those are just silly #'s
55% & 375-400 EVs = a solid mandate
let us not get greedy... or overconfident
WOOHOO!
Palin put the hole in the hull, nd the waves of the economy brought the ship down.
Conservatives FIRE Chris Buckley! So much for tolerance from McCain, was it McCain who brought a cruous george "obama" doll to a Palin rally?
BIGOTS!!! KILL THEM!!!! Not, but the idea they approve of that is just astounding.
I hope Obama turns out to be the real deal, but I hope some of you with such enthusiastic glee aren't too disappointed if it turns out he doesn't make as good a president as a pet rock would.
Next week, we´ll look at a few new West Virginia polls and Obama will be ahead in all of them, and we ust have to come to the conclusion "Whoops, it has flipped blue" - just like Missouri this week. And then, the Obama campaign can spend the final 2 weeks going for Arkansas, Montana and North Dakota.
RJ,
I think he can win in WV. If the unions really get behind him in a public way WV can go blue.
It went blue for Clinton at least once and I think twice (though I can't be sure)
ALEX
please add GA & MS & TX & AZ & AK to your list...
scott -
If 62-37 is a 24pt lead on election day, that would indeed be a shocker! ;~)
shalott,
Thanks for providing the insight. While I don't dismiss it completely or anything else that tries to quantify racial harmony or lack thereof, it comes across as a politically correct piece of garbage.
This is historic no matter how you look at it. Either way, we won't have a new president until November. And not a minute too soon!
As good as these numbers look, there are still three weeks to go. And after the way he let Hillary close in on him at the end of the primaries, I wonder about his killer instinct, his ability to close the deal. Unlike in the primaries, however, he doesn't have a large number of delegates/votes already in the bag. If Obama doesn't keep up the sales pitch until the people officially cast their votes three weeks from now, it's not going to matter what he's done up to now.
Right now, I'm thinking of Alec Baldwin's tirade about closing in "Glengarry Glen Ross." That has to be Obama's attitude, both tomorrow night and over the next three weeks. CLOSE THE DEAL!!!!!!
Alex, while ND and MT are the next to fall to Obama, if he gets much more confident, he'll take the show to Georgia. Why? Chambliss will be the next GOP Senator at risk.
Ha! Isn't it enough for some of you that you're going to be pulling in the neighborhood of 350-375 EVs.
You're delusional if you think you're going to start flipping states like AR, TX, and MS.
That's not even delusional. That's idiocy.
And the poll shows that in the wake of incessant negative attacks by McCain, Obama's favorables jumped up and McCain's slid.
It's like someone standing in front of you punching themselves repeatedly in the face and wondering why YOU aren't falling down.
How do you figure IN tinting blue? No support for that in polls. We don't need any extra spin here to take this thing. It's a wipe-out all the way. Stay on the up-and-up!
--Real Americans for President Hussein!
"(And) 4% that mention (incorrectly) that Obama is a Muslim."
Really, 4% of the electorate polled not only believes that Obama is a Muslim, but is troubled by it? Extrapolated, 4% of America is, what, 13+ million people?
And we wonder why progress is so elusive.
CLOSE THE DEAL!
This is a chance to change the world, once in a lifetime. I will be in court making PA as big a landslide as possible, fighting at the polls for every dem vote.
Call! Work! Knock on doors! CHABGE THE WORLD!
also, why not push to flip IN
and go for it in SD & SC & LA too
let the GOPers have AL & TN & KY & OK & ID & UT & WY & NE & KS & what hard red state did I miss ???
I'm willing to bet some money. Big money even.
I bet that MT, WV, GA, TX, AR, and MS all stay GOP this go-round.
If you truly believe he has a decent chance at any of those states - although I'd say GA is the most likely of the bunch - then you need to have your head examined.
Yeah, I'm predicting something like 54-44 Obama with 2% going to other candidates and a 380-158 EV win. That will be by any measure the biggest Democratic win since LBJ, which is nice symmetry considering LBJ's supposed statement that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 lost the Democrats the South for a generation.
grinder: You and the idiot who posted that blog (one and the same?) are racist assholes. Not only is that offensive, it's embarrassing. You should be ashamed of yourself. You epitomize all that is wrong with this country and all that is wrong with McShame supporters!
Maybe that CBS poll was this election's 'October surprise'? If McCain doesn't win tomorrow's debate absolutely decisively then I see a TOTAL meltdown in McCain's numbers over the next week.
A) Fuck off Mule.
I don't consider Obama anything more than a guy we are electing to office who is competent versus the shit you regularly spout. He is the symbol- not the movement. I think many of you , especially libertarians, just do not, and won't get it for at least a decade. I have a good conservative friend who said as much of many of you. She says you don't get it,a nd that you will be out of power for a long time because you think of yourself as the natural majority. The only certain in American politics is that the pendulum always eventual swings. Whether or not Obama suceeds or fails- your time- your politics as it has been for the last 30 years is dead. What will replace you- who knows. I am just certain it won't look like or act like or have policies like you.
b) COMPLACENCY
You know there is a difference between being confident and complacent. I really wish the chicken littles would learn that. I rarely cite Kos (because mostly he's an idiot, but even a broken clock is right twice a day). However, he made a great point- the desire now is to break the back of conservatism as it presently exists in America. Why? Because even now you are a large patch of people saying to themselves "it was mccain- not our idealogy and not our party on the GOP side." If anyone is interested in real debate of ideas in this country between say an Eisenhower type of conservatism and real progressivism, then one wants to break the present conservatism's back because without its death things will only change slowly. A clear decisive win of the WH, a clear 20 seat victory in the House, picking up a 60 seat fillabuster proof control of the Senate would send the message that the present GOP cant remain as it is. Without that soul searching moment- they will simply blame McCain and come back in 2012 with the same b.s.
MR-
MR, GA is the only one on your list Obama has a shot at. Your list means McCain gets completely crushed in a landslide. I know you are an evangelical who can bury his head in the sand, butcome one. Make a real bet. NC? VA?
NUMBERS UPDATE!
Obama now at 95.8%, +6.3 popular vote projection (8.1 today), and a 361.4-176.6 EV average win.
@mark (RE: I feel like I'm dreaming)
Me too. That's why even though things are looking FANTASTIC right now there is still 3 weeks to go and I don't think for one second McCain will "go quietly into that goodnight" without pulling out EVERY SINGLE trick play in the book that he has left.
Tomorrow night's debate is Obama's to lose (and the media will play a tie as a MCCain win since McCain is looked at less on the economy) so Obama needs to not play the "prevent defense" tomorrow night because the media would LOVE this to turn into something closer than it is right now.
Holy crap!
But..
I can't help but wonder which is weighing in heaviest:
--Obama being intuitively smart/talented & the economy
OR
--The loathing/hate/disgust for Bush & McCain's campaign ineptitude/dysfunction
Obviously each are having an impact but I wonder if Obama would be doing as well if McCain hadn't completely lost his shit and the economy hadn't gone to shit. Either way I'm sure people will be discussing this for a long time. I'm looking forward to the discussion.
reelgeist,
You don't know me, and your analysis of me is clearly lacking.
Don't ever speak to me again.
fred,
Hah! I'm not that risky! I was only responding to those who were staying on the delusional train up above claiming Obama was going to pin down all of those states.
No way I bet against NC and VA both. I still think NC will stay red, but I'm becoming convinced now that VA will be blue.
EEEEEE! Look at all that blue. PacMan is almost victorious!
winning in every marginal red state is not the main purpose of 'going for it' - but maybe a few will flip as a bonus...
take the game to the GOPers on their turf to make the margins close enough to help the down ticket DEM candidates & build a bigger coalition in congress & the statehouses for a DEM advantage during the next Census redistricting & every future election
plus that sets up each red state [like TX] for the next cycle with a stronger base & a pre-built GOTV for POTUS re-election in 2012
that is called smart long-range planning & efficient use of resources - just like Obama 2008
MR-
Nice work, the all knowing asshole mule rider is returning. Come on, bring it on. Defend your right to make your kids into racist, gay hating bigots.
reelgeist said...
This is 1980. People are no longer voting on person. They are voting on party and idealogical lines. That 39 or 40 percent is the GOP base. That's it. The electorate is coming to that same place they did after the final debate between Carter and Reagan in which they were coming to their final decision to reject liberalism. It will take quite some time- but I believe this is the end of Reaganism. I don't know what will replace it, but the GOP will morph into another party or die and be replaced by it.
YES! We are the ones we've been waiting for. He's was our Reagan-in-waiting by 2002, some of us non-Illinois residents figured it out in 2004, many followed. I've been waiting my whole life for this. I figured out in 1984 that Reagan's agenda was severely flawed and have been somewhat disappointed in my country for buying it and thrwing everything else away for 28 years. It's gotten much worse over the years with Gingrich Revolution and Bush/Cheney/Rove. This is capitulation. See 1980 or 1932. The end of the innocence. I need 30 or 40 years of Progressive politics to fix my country. I'm not a left wing liberal. I'm actually a centrist, just calling a spade a spade. Our country has been f***ed up and needs fixing that will take a while.
Next week CBS will have a poll that regresses to the mean and announce a new surge by McCain. We've been through this a few times already this year.
Good call MR.
Gotta say I am surprised VA is blue right now, I am shocked...but....seems true.
And Obama landslide is over 50%!
FRED
DNFTT or the asses
NUMBERS UPDATE!
McCain's Win Percentage: 4,2%
Ouch!
fred,
Simmer down dude. I just told him/her to back off because his/her first words were to f*** off.
And then a tirade about "my brand of politics."
I'm being stereotyped me just because I'm not gah-gah over Obama like so many on here are. I'm just saying back off.
An Obama landslide is 270. Mulie and Virginia Con and all the repubs we used to have loved to talk about how this was a center right country and stuff would move to McCain all this month. Where are those people?
Alyssa said...
Holy crap!
But..
I can't help but wonder which is weighing in heaviest:
--Obama being intuitively smart/talented & the economy
OR
--The loathing/hate/disgust for Bush & McCain's campaign ineptitude/dysfunction
Obviously each are having an impact but I wonder if Obama would be doing as well if McCain hadn't completely lost his shit and the economy hadn't gone to shit. Either way I'm sure people will be discussing this for a long time. I'm looking forward to the discussion.
If this election were Obama/Biden vs Romney/Hagel then Obama would likely have a big challenge on his hands. I think he'd still win, but it would be far more challenging. People like Obama. they dislike Bush/Cheney. They're disappointing in McCain. But, the one thing you're missing in your question is the Palin factor. I'm a numbers guy, stats geek. i've looked at the internals in these polls. I think Palin is worth at least -5 points, probably more!
Chuck Todd is espousing false equivalencies so he can remain sweet with the McSame camp. He's starting to remind me of Anderson Cooper.
Kelly,
Are you single?
MR-
I have no problem with your politics, and you have kept waht I view as homophobia out of it lately, so...why can't we all just get along?
Oh for God's sake, Joe Benevides, you need a humor implant. Yeah, it's my blog, and it's a send-up of the Republican paranoia and craziness that has got them to their current state.
The wingnuts that have been banning me from their sites for posting it know they are being mocked, and they HATE it!! Look, McCain is right on the brink of being laughed off of the national stage. Some well-timed mockery can be just what the Funny Doctor ordered, so relax.
Anyway, if anyone feels like helping out on Secret Squirrel's SECRET PLAN, come on over and leave some comments and maybe I'll incorporate your planks into the secret plan to implement black socialism in America.
But I must warn you that we will not tolerate a humorless revolution!!
I looked at the scenario analysis.
I saw
McCain loses OH/FL, wins election 0.00%
McCain loses OH/FL/PA, wins election 0.00%
fred,
I still believe the country is center-right. I just think the country has become effectively convinced that McCain is waaaaaaay right of center and that Obama is not as far left of center as was originally thought.
Whether the perceptions are true or not is a different story.
I gotta say we are center left. The key is whether folks can be convinced they personally can make more money by lowering taxes. The wool was pulled over their eyes by Bush and his lies about compassionate conservatism. Bush would have been a one termer, but the 9/11 stuff and his intentional fear campaign got him elelcted again. How did that work out?
Grinder-
How sad is it that I honestly wasn't sure if it was a joke or not? I've seen republicans say crazy stuff like that with a straight face before...just a couple of days ago we had that lady insisting to John McCain that Obama is an arab...
My parents live in AR, I know that state pretty well---it's red.
I think Obama/Biden have nearly goaded McCain into trying an Ayers assault at the last debate. Who thinks he'll actually fall for it?
This is GREAT NEWS! FOR CYNTHIA MCKINNEY!!!!!
mule rider want to have a ride with kelly ?
hahahahaha
I think Eric has used a scale like this before, but let's use a scale of 1 to 100, with 1 being the most liberal and 100 the most conservative.
I say the country is right around 55. Just my opinion. Before the campaigning, I think that John McCain had bullied his "maverick" image into making people think he was right around a 60 or 65. And all of the nonsense about Obama made it seem like he was around a 10 or 15. From that standpoint, it would seem pretty obivous who aligns more with a "55" country.
However, the campaign has revealed that McCain is closer to being a 90 or 95, and Obama has successfully marketed himself at about a 40 or 45. I really don't know if Obama is that much of a centrist or if McCain is really that far right, but honestly, the narratives have painted that kind of a picture up until now.
Anyway, I don't the country is warming to Obama because they're moving lower from that 55 level, I think it's because they are now convinced he's closer to a 45 than a 15.
@smallclaypot,
The DNC says that they are handling it. See Democrats Fight Back: Taking On GOP Voter Suppression
*********Obama eclipses 80 on Intrade for the first time
According to this update, even if McCain win's the pop vote, Obama still has a 40% chance of getting the most EVs.
The only problem for Obama in West Virginia is the democratic vote.
WV is one of the states with large ID party advantage for the dems in the country.
Clinton won WV in 1996 for 51-36.
Obama can win easily WV if the 86% of the dems vote for him.
Of course, the most important problem for Obama in WV is the racist democrat vote.
I think if he brings it up it will be a big mistake. You know that answer has been gone thoroughly in the preps. It is going to be such a softball for Obama.
musicman said...
*********Obama eclipses 80 on Intrade for the first time
HOT DAMN
I believe Obama has very progressive views but not ideologically so. He really is a "Lets get everyone together and find consensus" type of leader.
I believe Obam's toughest job as President is reining in Pelosi and Reid. They are ideological Liberals. I'd like to see Obama veto some of their legislation.
You are too funny Real Joe
fred,
You would probably have to apply the "center-right" or "center-left" thing differently whether you were talking about social, economic, or foreign policy. And you'd probably still have to divy that up to individual issues or at least aggregates of similar issues to get an accurate picture.
If you're talking, say, gun control laws, I'd have to say we're center-right or even leaning pretty right on that issues.
I'd say the country is now center-left on abortion.
I think we were center-right on banking and financial regulation until this latest mess but will be more center-left now that we are sifting through the debris.
Here's an well-argued opinion by conservative LAT columnist Jonah Goldberg that Obama's skin color provides some valuable immunity against attacks.
Abortion is a personal issue, not a political issue.
If you put the abortion issue in a political debate, you not respect one important point: Separation the religion from the State.
Looks like Drudge has convinced the Zogster to monkey around with his numbers again to keep the McCain resurgence meme going. At this rate I expect him to have Thursday's numbers before lunch.
Zogby polls as released by their right wing asshole friends at Drudge:
ZOGBY WEDNESDAY: OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4%... DEVELOPING...
I'd love to see Obama reign in Pelosi and get rid of Reid. Put Hillary in there,
I think this election comes down to the diference between the two slogans....
JOBS, Baby, JOBS
vs
DRILL, Baby, DRILL
Over all, the poll found that if the election were held today, 53 percent of those determined to be probable voters said that they would vote for Mr. Obama and 39 percent said they would vote for Mr. McCain. When Ralph Nader and Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate, were included in the question, the race narrowed slightly, with 51 percent of those surveyed saying that they were supporting Mr. Obama and 39 percent supporting Mr. McCain, with Mr. Nader getting the support of 3 percent and Mr. Barr 1 percent. Other polls have shown Mr. Obama ahead by a smaller margin.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/15/us/politics/15poll.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
GayIthacan said...
"George Bush in 1992 received 37% of the vote, the lowest total for a major party candidate since the 1920s or earlier."
Not a fair comparison - since there is no Ross Perot in this election cycle.
No but some states still have Ron Paul... ::coughMONTANAcough::
Yeah, I was hittin' on Kelly. Guess she wasn't biting.
MATT J.H.,
You hit the nail on the head for what I'll be looking for....how Obama handles the Pelosis and Reids once he's elected.
If he jumps on their boat and sails off into the liberal sunset, then watch out. But if he's the pragmatist that he claims to be, he will stand against them on a fair number of issues. As chief executive, it'll be up to him entirely. He can't hide or parade along with the momentum of a congressional vote. It's his say and his only.
Personally, I'm not convinced he will stand up enough to the liberal end of the party, but I'm sure there are some in here who don't want him to stand up to them and would prefer he fully embrace their left-leaning ideology.
Whatever floats your boat.
That'll piss-off Hannity and Limbaugh.
From 1932-1996, WV was the most Dem state on the presidential level in the country. It still is one of the most of the state level.
This is a state that Stevenson beat Eisenhower twice, Carter beat Reagan in 1980 (one of six states) and Dukakis beat Bush.
So the Dem roots are there.
I'm Sarah Palin and I am voting for Barrack Obama.
Obama08
You Betchaa!!
(I,m John McCain and I approve this message.)
Zogby is using Repub 39, Dem 36. They are 3-4% too high for repub. Assholes.
Frits "LOL" Wentzel.
Hello from Melbourne, Australia.
An American on the radio recently said that most Americans under age 30 don't have a landline and so are not polled. Is this true and, if so, do projections take this into account?
A married evangelical who wants to impose his biased views on every one IS HITTING ON WOMEN!!!! How perfectly hypocritical and represeatative of the evangelical position. Thank you Mule Rider, youjust proved why we all hate your type!
fred - zogby has party ID at +3 R?!
What an effing joke.
triton
Most pollsters make some adjustment for that. Some better than others.
Clinton Supporters Aid Palin
God, even after the racism and hate spewed by Palin, they stick to her side.
God Bless America.
I have been saying since day one that McCain has a solid base of about 155 eVs that is NEVER GOING TO FLIP (unless McCain begins to incessantly droll and loses bowel control during the final debate).
We need to STOP TRYING TO FLIP THESE STATES and focus on the 350+ EV we are ODDS-ON to win.
Why waste resources where you cannot possibly influence the final outcome?
"Abortion is a personal issue, not a political issue.
If you put the abortion issue in a political debate, you not respect one important point: Separation the religion from the State."
Sorry, that's an absurd statement. I'm vehemently pro-choice, but I know completely irreligious people who lean pro-life (at least insofar as they would strongly council anyone in their life to consider alternatives to abortion).
Its a moral issue with a considerable amount of gray area certainly, but I am pretty sure that no religious texts have anything to say about the moment that "life" begins.
Jonah Goldberg and the rest of the wingnuts are trying to say that he'll be the affirmative action president. What horseshit.
What Obama's race has done is permitted McCain's campaign to launch subtextual attacks that paint him as an "outsider" who people "don't know" even though he's been running for president for two years.
The same people who "don't know" Obama are perfectly comfortable with Palin, an archetypal blank slate. After all, she is a hockey mom. Who son has problems with drugs and discipline, and whose eldest daughter just turned up pregnant out of wedlock, etc etc.
Obama's lack of attacks, well, we'd all like to think that this is entirely because of his earnest principles. But it's even truer than a black man running for president is VERY constrained when it comes to attacks, lest he be seen as a threatening black man.
What the Republicans have been doing to Obama, or more to the point trying to do to him, is ugly. Fortunately, there are much better factors weighing against them. Jonah Goldberg is completely full of shit, and you can double that and raise it to the 10th power.
triton-
No. There is a bias in polls of 1-3% for McCain due to not calling cell phones. It is not true that "most" people under 30 do not have landlines.
I don't think this race is over but I have no idea how McCain turns it around. He can't win on the economy, The voters are not buying the "Taxes" argument. Reform government = change, and Obama owns that. All McCain has is going negative which backfired last week and some foreign policy emergency.
I want a landslide. I want to see the GOP fall apart. I want to see it coming apart at the seams.
Matt-
Zogby has party ID at +3 Dem, it is about +6.
And after that really solid CBS/NYT poll commissioned by none other than Dan Rather was released...out comes the IBD/TIPP tracking poll (you know, the one that was considered by many to be the most accurate in 2004)which shows:
Obama 45
McCain 42
"I want a landslide. I want to see the GOP fall apart. I want to see it coming apart at the seams."
Matt..... It is.
Mule Rider,
Bottomline with regard to the scaling you used above is though I think it has merit, the polls have shifted around over the last month for another reason,
Core Competency
The election was declared a referendum on Obama. He passed.
In the meantime, McCain has unexpectedly failed in two big ways. #1 Palin Pick, 'nuff said #2 His poor understanding of the economy and lack of ability to show any leadership at all.
I believe these three things have swayed the 20% in the middle ideologically to swing to Obama almost 100%. This is the move that we've seen over the last month. Perhaps Obama is pereceived as closer to the center than once though, McCain further to the right, and because of events the country has been pulled from right-center to right down the middle 50/50, but I believe the polls are showing with regard to competency to be President pass/fail, Obama passes, McCain fails and this surprised many.
fred,
Why are you so imbalanced? One post we're having decent dialogue and the next you're saying I'm proving "how much we hate your type."
I'm not married. If I insinuated it before by something I said or how I responded to something, then I apologize, but that's not true.
I'm as single as single can be.
And "evangelical" isn't necessarily an accurate description either. I believe in God and consider myself Christian, but the "evangelical" label is reserved for particular kinds of Christians, as far as I can tell...the ones who are more literal in their interpretation of everything and live by a bunch of absolutes.
That's not me.
Come on guys. Let's chill. There are twenty BIG days left. While this is great news, let's be something the Republicans know nothing about - "gracious".
We are a center country whose demographics have been slowly shifting from center-right to center-left and the future of this change has been apparent in the demographic shifts that have been happening since the 90's.
The R's with Rove were trying to position themselves as a center-right party and to escape the long term trap of being the party of only conservative whites in a country with an increasingly minority party by reaching parity in Hispanics and attracting/keeping white Catholics. Bush actually reached near parity in the Latino vote because of his phony 'compassionate conservativism', his promise of immigration reform, his ability to speak Spanish and his 'foreign policy experience' as Governor of Texas that included a close working relationship with Vincente Fox (oh, and also a promise to make Latin American issues a center of his foreign policy). That was the core of Rove's strategy to make/keep the Republicans the majority party. However, all of these promises were unfulfilled and Tancredo the torpedo and his ilk unravelled all of those gains. Add to this the R's losing all credibility as an actual 'center-right' let alone center party after 2004 with white voters, and you get the situation you have today.
The R's problem is that the people who left left because of the extremists and its only the extremists who stayed. If the Tancredo wing keeps having a strong influence reversing the collapse among Hispanics becomes unlikely. If the religious right keeps dominating the fiscally conservative/socially liberal old school R's will continue to be repelled. And the neo-con military industrial complex has scared away many realists/midwestern isolationists and pacifist Catholics who could have broken for them. The remnant R party is hard right and they will be responcible for answering the question of how to reconnect with the voters they lost because they are hard right. Judging from how some state parties have reacted the R party is just as/more likely to decide that they need to be more hard right and tip themselves further into the vicious cycle that started in 2006 than to reform into something acceptable.
The only thing they have going for them might be the map. The 2010 census is likely to increase house representation in red/purple America and subtract from Gore/Kerry states, thus making it more important for Obama to win strong now. The 2008 minimum winning combination will not be enough in 2012.
When does Obama get the Rove endorsement?
Seriously, the endorsements are going to be sick this year. Every moderate in the country is going to endorse O. I hear Hannity is going O this year too.
I think that as Democrats we should really focus on using our tremendous resources to make the entire Republican Party break down weeping into their security blankie.
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