DNC Chairman Howard Dean just spoke to the students here on campus at Washington University at the Edison Theater. We hung around backstage and had the chance to chat with Dean after his speech.
We asked him to explain how the 50-state strategy had benefited Barack Obama and Democratic candidates during this 2008 cycle. He was ready with the answer – when you go into places like Utah and South Carolina and Alaska, you give yourselves the opportunity not only to develop the Democratic voter file there, you lay the groundwork for having the infrastructure to support legitimate candidates like Mark Begich, a slight favorite to topple the indicted Ted Stevens.
I asked about Democratic use of Catalist, and how it compared with the RNC-owned VoterVault. Both of these are highly advanced datamining tools that campaigns use to target their voter universes for ground game. (When I say universes, I mean any groupings of voters selected for organizing purposes -- undecideds, sporadic voting Ds/Rs, newly registered voters, etc.) Dean told me that Republicans have used theirs longer (7 cycles) compared to this being only the 2d cycle for Democrats, but confidently stated that "ours is better."
Dean cited the Catalist's capacity for prediction with 85% accuracy using credit card data whether a voter falls into a particular targeted universe. The amount of streamlining this enables a campaign's ground operation to achieve is hard to overstate. He argued that having only 30 variables versus VoterVault's 250 variables allowed for easier use.
In addition, Dean cited the importance of the primaries, where as a condition of being granted access to the voter file, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were required to return the files with updated data. With a contested primary or caucus in virtually every state, and hundreds of thousands of volunteer organizing hours powering that list-refinement, the voter files Dems are operating with just this cycle are both more up to date than the Republican files as well as being worked much, much harder right now during the general election. Of course, Michigan -- where Dems did not have a contested primary, just came off the board today.
Dean also argued that in response to the current economic crisis, Barack Obama had displayed calm, thoughtfulness, and poise when the chips were down. By contrast, Dean said, John McCain had spent most of the past week "running around like a chicken with his head cut off."
During his approximately 20-minute address to students here at Washington University, Dean worked the room like a human quote machine. "If all you do is vote you get a D."
Referring to the closeness of recent political ground fights, "you don't win elections because you're right, you win elections because you work harder than the other guy."
Speaking about the generational moment this election represents: "Barack Obama is John F. Kennedy, and John McCain is Richard Nixon."
Making his urgent pitch to the students here about a lifetime commitment to staying in the public sphere: "Don't you ever get out of politics!"
And of course, on the value of community organizers: "Community organizers are the people who coach Sarah Palin's kids when they're playing youth hockey."
We regret that we did not have time to ask Chairman Dean about yard signs. We're sure it would have been a beaut.
We've had huge difficulty with Blogger.com today, unable to publish things for hours at a time, including this post. We apologize for the inconvenience. We are here to liveblog and provide pictures of the scene at this epic vice-presidential debate, live from the campus of Washington University in St. Louis. We hope Blogger.com will let us do that.


39 comments
test
Obama Leads McCain by 12 Points in New Hampshire, According to Saint Anselm College Poll
http://www.anselm.edu/nhiop/news+and+events/news/2008-10-02-nhiop-poll.htm
As to yard signs- all Dems should need to do is point out that the Republicans have thousands in every state- they all say For Sale, and they have done so for some time.
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.
Obama 355, McCain 183
Oct 2 Polling Update
A New Republic...an Party
Will McCain Re-suspend his Campaign?
Damn posting gremlins. Is this thing working?... We will begin the bombing in 5 minutes...these a-holes got to stop...
Damn posting gremlins. Is this thing working?... We will begin the bombing in 5 minutes...these a-holes got to stop...
WTTTTTTTTTTTTFFFFFFFFF
+ 12 in New Hampshire?
WTF is going on with the site
12 min. 2 go
RCP Response to Nate Silver
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
On his website this morning, Nate Silver accused RealClearPolitics of intentionally cherry-picking polls for partisan purposes in the RCP Polling Averages. It's a very serious accusation, and one that is absolutely, 100% false.
The allegation that RealClearPolitics suddenly reincluded ARG polls for the purposes of boosting McCain's numbers in the RCP Poll Averages in certain states is simply not true.
During the extended Democratic primary battle, we took the unusual step of suspending use of ARG polls in the RCP Averages because of erratic and bizarre polls that we felt merited a serious and thorough review. After analyzing ARG's polling carefully and discussing the matter internally, we reached out to Dick Bennett of ARG and made the decision to reinclude their polls beginning this week moving forward through the election.
Let us be very clear: among the major websites who currently aggregate polling data, RCP was the only one that was not including ARG polls. So the accusation that our decision to reinclude ARG now represents some sort of bias is nonsensical. If anything, by being the only organization not using ARG thus far during the general election, to the extent any of their polling favored McCain, the RCP Averages were therefore biased in Obama's favor relative to any other organization.
Due to the explosion of polls, RealClearPolitics made a decision at the beginning of September to limit polls in the RCP National Average through election day to polling firms that RealClearPolitics has previously used in the RCP National Average and have a history of national polling or new polls that have major media sponsorship (i.e. Associated Press/GfK).
This meant the exclusion of the DailyKos/Reseach2000 and InsiderAdvanatge national tracking polls. Nate Silver, as the former DailyKos blogger/diarist, Poblano, clearly disagrees with RCP's decision.
RealClearPolitics categorically denies "cherry-picking" polls for partisan purposes in its RCP Averages and stands by its decision not to include the DailyKos and InsiderAdvantage national tracking polls in the RCP National Average.
- John McIntyre, Tom Bevan, & Jay Cost
RCP is not partisan, it is just dumb.
OMG
good job Sean,
very interesting
oh, and it was all a trap (you fools)!
Greg Strimple, its senior adviser, outlined a strategy akin to political rope-a-dope, in which their campaign had goaded Barack Obama into pouring in money into un-winnable locales.
"One of the strategic decisions our campaign has made is to let Mr. Obama spend his resources there until the point where we got closer to the election...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/02/mccain-camp-weve-got-obam_n_131394.html
This folksy bullshit is making my stomach turn. Not to mention she's talking like a robot.
KATIE COURIC: What's the worst thing that Cheney has done?
SARAH PALIN: Worst thing I guess that would have been the duck hunting accident--where you know, that was an accident. And I think that was made into a caricature of him. And that was kind of unfortunate.
test
Yeah, you betcha
Palin doing great
Palin is playing a good cheerleader right now. Biden is coming off a bit flat.
A question.
InsiderAdvantage is a democratic pollster?.
OMG..she can't answer
Watching CNN dial-polling... deregulation = yawn.
She got cut off... oy, Repubs are gonna bitch. Nevermind she was completely off topic.
So that's her gambit... she refuses to answer difficult questions flat out.
Novel.
I'm hoping she says "ya darn tootin" at some point
Is this working now?
As I tried to note earlier, Richard Nixon was four years older than John Kennedy.
John McCain is 25 years older than Barack Obama.
She winked. She fucking WINKED at the camera!
Hahaha Buttermouth Biden
What the ---- is wrong with 'winking'? ----ing moron.
isn't the moderator supposed to direct the discussion
they are all-over the place. especially palin.
palin is doing good.
avoiding a few question but nothing dramatic.
biden is also doing fine.
quite disappointing so far on poth sides :o)
YYYYEEEAAAAAGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!
This had to be done here.
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菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
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