For his latest trick, Matt Drudge is touting the results of an AP-Yahoo poll that shows a two-point race between Obama and McCain.
You may never have heard of the AP-Yahoo poll before. This is for good reason, since a look at the fine print reveals that it's not really intended for its horse race numbers (the AP uses a separate agency, GfK, for those).
For one thing, the poll is not timely. It entered the field on October 3 -- two weeks ago -- and left the field on October 13, which was this Monday.
For another thing, it's an internet-based poll:The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanelSM, a probability-based Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled KnowledgePanelSM. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, Knowledge Networks provides at no cost an Internet appliance and Internet service connection. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research.
For a third thing, it has no likely voter screen, and the horse race question does not even appear to have a registered voter screen ... it's a poll of all adults.
Go, Drudge! Go!
10.17.2008
Bad Spin Watch: Drudge Touts Weeks-Old, Web-Based Poll
@ 11:55 AM
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246 comments
You have to wonder what Drudge would have to do to ruin his career. "Bad journalism" doesn't seem to be a problem for him.
Drudge being inaccurate?
who would have thought...
FINALLY! Someone with some web presence who's not afraid to attack Drudge's lack of logic and pure spin! Well done, keep it up!
fourth
Drudge is a joke.
But isn't it good for Obama to have at least some people think that this is a close race. Keeps down cockiness, keeps Dems working, and keeps Reps thinking that their strategy is working (keep it up Sarah!).
Sounds like a scam to get marketing research. Next month they're going to get questions about what hair products they use.
This may have the positive effect of keeping complacent Dems on their toes. Since center-right dems are the most likely to cave to MSM pressure, this may just be enough to spur those Dem professionals from getting lazy. May ultimately be a good thing for Obama.
Wow, McCain has taken a page out of the late-game Hillary Clinton playbook, that looks something like this:
Well, if you turn your head sideways and squint really hard, we're only barely losing!
drudge lives up to his name... drudging up the bottom of the barrel on this one.
WASHINGTON – The Supreme Court is siding with Ohio's top elections official in a dispute with the state Republican Party over voter registrations.
The justices on Friday overruled a federal appeals court that had ordered Ohio's top elections official to do more to help counties verify voter eligibility.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081017/ap_on_el_pr/scotus_voter_registration
I dislike Drudge as much as the next guy, but I think it's also inaccurate to say "it's a web based poll." You make it sound like people click on some banner ad for the opportunity to take a poll. The quoted language says "Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled
KnowledgePanelSM." Sounds to me like they are sampling by the same method as any other polling organization, but simply trying to conserve resources by having participants enter their responses on a website rather telling the caller and having the caller enter the responses. Drudge may be a hack, but stooping to his level of deceit is not the way to go, Nate.
!!!!! USSC rules against Ohio GOP. This is good news for... PeteKent!!!!
Haha, death to the Repuglicans.
Drudge is a partisan hack. Can't wait to see his headline on the Fifth.
"Keeps down cockiness, keeps Dems working, and keeps Reps thinking that their strategy is working (keep it up Sarah!)."
OTOH, low poll numbers demoralize the republicans and suppress turnout. It's a snowball effect. That's why Drudge would want to spin some cherry-picked old data.
I've noticed that right wingers are obsessed with insisting that they are doing better than they really are, and liberals tend to be the opposite.
For the past twenty years, that right wing tactic may have been working. Dumb as it sounds, hammering Americans with exaggerations of the popularity of right wing ideas and politicians may have caused some scaredy-cat "swing voters" to go for the Republicans out of a cringing desire to follow the herd.
It's much less effective this year.
Of course, the strategic value is not why the likes of Drudge and Hannity do this. Their ideology basically gives them a psychological viagra injection of pseudo-machismo. They CAN'T admit that they're losing. However, after November, William F. Buckley style "persecuted voice in the wilderness" delusions will come back into style.
Wow. I mean, I know he's a total hack (and his website looks like it was coded by a dyslexic chimp), but it's like he's not even trying anymore.
But, then, I guess this is the first time in his public life that he's been in the position of being on the losing side of the Presidential and Congressional elections.
BTW, who wants to take bets about the Repugs totally changing their tune about "activist judges legislating from the bench" when the 5-4 conservative Supreme Court starts striking down laws? =)
Get that siren thingy off of there!
I think I am going to have a seizure.
Having to scrape the bottom of the barrel is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
Does the formatting on Drudge's website make anyone else's mind ache? If I were taking an internet poll, and I had to choose between Drudge hiring a graphics design team or purchasing some integrity, I'm sad to say that I'd vote for the graphics design, though I'd hope that there might be a 2-for-1 deal.
dailydem: dial that down, why doncha? Nate posted the fine print, so we can all see exactly what he meant by "internet-based" (you misquoted him, by the way).
But, yes, KN is trying to do a truly random Internet-based poll. This stuff is controversial.
good afternoon everyone.
Drudge is a moron and only morons take him seriously--let them have their fun, Nate. It's not hurting us, it makes us stronger. :3
I drove today in my little red in a sea of blue county in maryland today, and Obama and McCain signs were tied until I got on my street. Then five or so houses all next to one another had McCain signs, sharing the wealth like socialists I see.
This is good news that I have actually seen Obama signs, though. In 2004 we went to Bush 70/29/1 so if my little alabama in maryland can make it 60/40 I'll consider it a great election!
Well, yeah, Drudge is a partisan hack, but aren't we all?
Anyway, here's the real GOOD news of the day, now in all caps and really big, big letters on Drudge:
SUPREMES OVERRULE OHIO COURT IN VOTER DISPUTE
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93SBC3O0&show_article=1
I wish I could go to Ohio to help on Nov 4. I can't wait to travel to NH for the third time and make this happen for Obama!
Let it roll......!!!
Surprise surprise.
After the gallup showed McCain w/in the margin of error, this site was quick to discount it. Now, another poll, is showing something similar and you guys cry foul again.
What happens on monday when more polls echo McCain's gains?
Accuse Drudge of being a partisan hack? That's the pot calling the kettle short and black.
I think we have a winner in the Silver v. Drudge battle:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=nate+silver%2C+matt+drudge&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd&sort=0
SUSA-FL: McCain 49, Obama 47
SUSA's previous FL poll was three weeks ago, and was M48-O47.
harold said...
For the past twenty years, that right wing tactic may have been working. Dumb as it sounds, hammering Americans with exaggerations of the popularity of right wing ideas and politicians may have caused some scaredy-cat "swing voters" to go for the Republicans out of a cringing desire to follow the herd.
It's much less effective this year.
Very good point. This is the fundamental weakness in their strategy of all-politics-no-policy, depending on logical fallacies (such as "appeal to popularity") to sell an illogical position.
If popularity turns, you've never given the masses any reason to continue agreeing with you.
Amazing, even with the Drudge deceitful bullsh##, they still came up with Obama leading.
Ahh let them have their fun. Lets just keep working, and make sure you get at least one 50+ yr old white person to swing over to Obama!
All you crackheads that the Supreme Court voted on the merits of the case would be wrong.
They ruled that the State GOP didn't have standing to bring the case. The the effect of the ruling will likely be the same unless some other entity that has standing files the suit.
My guess is that one of justice stevens flacks called the Ohio SS and told them to file the appeal knowing the result.
Did i hear a toilet flush?
Next, Michael will be citing that AP/Donut poll.
From the Yahoo link to the OSSC decision story:
Instead, they said they were granting Brunner's request because it appears that the law does not allow private entities, like the Ohio GOP, to file suit to enforce the provision of the law at issue.
So just to give props. Someone yesterday in a thread here predicted this would be the Court's decision. I don't remember your screen name, so whoever you were, please pipe up and take a bow!
One other thing. Should Obama win, very close to the top of his and the Congressional Dems' priority list should be sweeping election reform that reduces the ability of any party to suppress voters. With imprisonment and heavy fines for those caught at it. My voting privilege is too important to be left in doubt. And so is yours.
That SUSA poll is a joke, he has 22% of blacks voting for McCain? I say add 3 or 4 more points to Obama right there.
Also SUSA has underestimated Obama`s strength in the southern states since the beginning of the primaries.
MY take is a lot of blacks are telling pollsters they are voting for McCain because they don`t want to appear racist, sort of a reverse bradley effect.
That's not surprising, after each debate, Drudge has a poll on who won the debate. No surprise here but McCain/Palin won their respective debates by 50 points.
I mean come on.
I dislike Drudge as much as the next guy, but I think it's also inaccurate to say "it's a web based poll." You make it sound like people click on some banner ad for the opportunity to take a poll.
No he doesn't, and it's not inaccurate. It is a web-based poll, and the audience here understands polling and knows how inaccurate these web-based polls are (such as Zogby Interactive).
Jack-be-nimble is the designated douchebag on this thread.
Anyone wanna challenge him? Right Wing Conspiricist???
But isn't it good for Obama to have at least some people think that this is a close race. Keeps down cockiness, keeps Dems working, and keeps Reps thinking that their strategy is working (keep it up Sarah!).
Yup. This is the beauty of the Regressive's fantasy of the Bradley Effect. They charge out insisting Obama is really down because of it, in a way that cannot be countered by polling (because no matter how the polls stretch, you just stretch the imaginary Bradley Effect to match it), and even the MSM keeps harping on it. The net result is a substantial portion of the voters who support Obama believing that he needs every vote, no matter what the polls say.
Thanks, Regressive trash! I'll just consider it your invaluable contribution to Obama/Biden.
Matt Drudge is finally jumping the shark with this sad attempt to make his wingnut readership base feel like they have a chance at winning this thing. I feel bad that I still go to his site from time to time, but I think I may finally delete that bookmark from my browser right about..........now.
Ice Mike said...
Surprise surprise.
After the gallup showed McCain w/in the margin of error, this site was quick to discount it. Now, another poll, is showing something similar and you guys cry foul again.
What happens on monday when more polls echo McCain's gains?
Accuse Drudge of being a partisan hack? That's the pot calling the kettle short and black.
LOL
Seriously, dude. What's the whole point of this site? To look beyond one poll, or even a few polls.
Drudge picking up an out-of-date poll that doesn't even ask about the "horse race" (nevermind the legitimate methodological questions) is the very definition of cherry picking. It's confirmation bias. It's theory in search of data.
Nate, meanwhile, is the only one out there who doesn't exclude anything, and he has a transparent methodology so you see how the weighting works and why it works the way it does. That way, if you disagree with Nate's weighting, you can make your own adjustments to reach your own conclusions. (For example, if you don't like the 30-day "half life" of polls, you could very easily change the relative weighting for your own calculations.)
So ... yeah. Try being intellectually honest with yourself -- it'll make November 5th a lot easier. =)
The Supreme Court opinion:
If the merits were strong, the "technicality" which killed the case would have been minimized.
Kind of curious who does have standing to bring the lawsuit. Not a voter, not a private entity; maybe the legislature?
ABC, NPR and others are running with it. Anything to keep the horserace myth alive. Nothing worse for ratings than a route.
Tybalt: Thank you for making my entire point. You, part of the "sophisticated audience" here, see the term "web-based poll" and assume it is like the Zogby Interactive. It is not.
Having people report that the race is closer than it actually is is a good thing for Obama. It helps ensure that his base doesn't become complacent during the final three weeks.
GOOD NEWS SOLDIERS.
THE SUPREME COURT ACCEPTED BRUNNER'S APPEAL...THE RULING THAT FAVORED THE GOP HAS BEEN OVERTURNED.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27238980/
YES WE CAN.
joedawolf said...
Having people report that the race is closer than it actually is is a good thing for Obama. It helps ensure that his base doesn't become complacent during the final three weeks.
THIS!
And contrary to what some people are saying, it's best if the race is touted as being "close." If it's projected as a landslide for Obama, not only will the base get complacent, but the less-enthusiastic Obama supporters will stay home figuring that Obama will win anyway.
Hey, look which of our resident sociopaths (of the species Repugnicus trolli) decided to drop by this morning!
"It puts the lotion in the BASKET!!!"
DNFTT.
Srsly.
Rush Limbaugh was just toutin' this poll about 10 minutes ago on his propaganda radio show.
It's like they take pride in being ignorant.
Drudge's site is soooo 1998. That's where Nate snagged that cool police siren from.
Drudge is a tool of the Republican Party and specifically the McCain campaign in recent months. This tactic, making the election sound more like a horse race than it really is will backfire however. It will keep the pro-Obama voters from becoming complacent.
IBD/TIPP:
Friday
O: 45.9
M: 40.6
www.tipponline.com
Party ID in that SUSA FL poll is +4 R. That can't be right, can it?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/17/foreign_poll_favors_obama.html
Look at the numbers above. If those polls are even close to accurate, they're amazing.
Notice how when the polls show Obama way ahead, they're partisan and not to be believed. When they show a slightly more positive result for their guy, they're all of a sudden the Gospel. The republicans are indeed desparate. It's crazy.
there's some wacky tabacky in that Florida poll
Drudge's situation is more complex and more logical.
He lost huge wingnut cred earlier this year when he seemed pro-Obama.
He needs to get it back.
He wants to be the go-to site for upcoming "scandals" a la Monicagate.
It's just a business plan.
He'll probably vote for Obama in Florida, if for no other reason that it is in his own self-interest.
LOL on that IBD/TIPP poll!
"The most accurate pollster in 2004" (as the GOPers like to say) shows Obama EXPANDING his lead. Let's see 'em talk their way out of it.
TIPP showing Obama +1.7% from yesterday.
The must be great news for John McCain!
dailydem:
Seems to me that this poll starts with a balanced group, but then relies on a sub-set (those who respond to the email requests) for its data. That may not be the definition of "web-based," but it's certainly not scientific. Anyway, you're WAY overstating things to accuse Nate of stooping to Drudge's level.
I am going to give the nod again on this thread to newsfromoh who predicted the ruling and explained very well why it rule this way.
There are more Dems in Florida than Pubs at this point. There's also no way McPalin get 22% of the AA vote there. SUSA is a strange outfit. They sometimes have solid polls and other times, they're internals are whacked.
SUSA has had McCain ahead for a little while now, at the same time every other poster shows O ahead.
what's the scoop in Ohio? what did this decision determine exactly?
SUSA is also the outfit that gave us McCain +20 in NC...
That USSC Ohio verdict is HUGE. Great news indeed.
Party ID in that SUSA FL poll is +4 R. That can't be right, can it?
As per the FL Board of Elections website, in August 2008, there were 4,389,698 registered Democrats and 3,924,081 registered Republicans, out of 10,618,519 registered voters in total.
loralee: there is no email component to the poll. Seriously people, when we don't actually read the fine print before we start making assertions, we look foolish and embarrass ourselves.
SUSA seems to have problems polling the south, even in the primaries, don't know why that is.
Personally, I'd really be interested in seeing some empirical research on turnout vis-a-vis landslides. The conventional wisdom being spouted right now is that the perception of a landslide might depress turnout on the winning side and cause Obama to lose the election. That may be true ... but I don't know that I can think of any empirical study that verifies this. (A very quick glance at JSTOR doesn't find anything, but I'm still looking through some abstracts.)
The alternative -- which is equally plausible -- is that the perception of a landslide depresses turnout on the losing side faster than on the winning side. In other words, it multiplies the effect.
So, at the very least, I'm not sold on the theory just yet, but I'll keep looking and even run my own numbers through Stata if necessary to reach a conclusion.
Wish I'd thought of this a few weeks ago -- this would have been a good proposal for the MPSA conference in Chicago. =)
What the hell is the deal with Paddy Power paying off on Obama already? I thought it was a hoax, but it's true (paddypower.com). Even if they think it's the right result, why are they giving up the interest on the holdings? What if "something bad" happens to Obama physically between now and 11/4? WHAT THE HELL?
Obama only taking african americans 75-22? That tells you everything you need to know.
Obama at the least will take 90%.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm
Has anyone seen that? They have ND as blue as VA and SD is blue too. HUH??
matt said...
LOL on that IBD/TIPP poll!
"The most accurate pollster in 2004" (as the GOPers like to say) shows Obama EXPANDING his lead. Let's see 'em talk their way out of it.
October 17, 2008 11:30 AM
robert said...
TIPP showing Obama +1.7% from yesterday.
The must be great news for John McCain!
hahahahahahha
McCain Surge !!!
And yet MORE props for Nate:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
Gaming Intrade: Nate Silver was right: An internal report finds that a single investor was keeping McCain's stock high on the prediction market Intrade.
zenu said...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/poll-tracker.htm
Has anyone seen that? They have ND as blue as VA and SD is blue too. HUH??
hahahahaha
Don -- Paddy Power is notorious for their early payouts. But they only do it when they have a pretty sure bet.
Given that Obama WILL carry all the kerry states. and only needs IA, NM and CO, or FL the odds are very good that he will win, even if the national numbers look too close for comfort sometimes.
That doesn't mean we can gete complacent of course.
The OHIO supreme court ruling is the big news of today. I'm very excited that the GOP will have one less tool to completely mess up the OHIO election... Ohio might turn blue after all, even with us going through that GOP gauntlet of dirty tricks, snags, and cheats.
Matt Drudge was against Hilliary and for Obama when it really counted. Day after day last Spring I visited the Drudge Report to see that day's terrible Hilliary photo and good Obama news. The very best photos of Barak appeared on Matt's site during that time. There even was one of Barak descending the stairs of his campaign plane that evoked a well known JFK photo. My favorite Matt Drudge headline photo of Barak is a rope-line photo in which his head is entirely covered by adoring hands. The theme was a "time for healing" at the conclusion of the Democrat primary. Matt never bought into Rush's Operation Chaos. Drudge however backs "conservative" principles and that explains his site reverting to form.
Kennyb said...
And yet MORE props for Nate:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
Gaming Intrade: Nate Silver was right: An internal report finds that a single investor was keeping McCain's stock high on the prediction market Intrade.
Dude!!!
Nate, srsly ... you are the MAN.
I'm so happy about the Ohio decision. I'm going to go cast my 55 votes right away!!!
Who do you people hang out with? I don't know one person who reads the Drudge Report. It never comes up in conversation.
And the Golden Bullshit Flag goes to Nate for finally throwing a strong one down on Drudge!
The Supreme Court decision explained in lay terms:
The federal courts' jurisdiction is limited by the Constitution and further defined in the law. They generally have jurisdiction to hear cases that arise under federal laws. However, all federal laws define what the remedies will be for violations.
The HAVA provision at issue can only be enforced by the government, it's not something that any private citizen (or group) can contest. That's pretty clear from the language of the law itself.
Whenever a case is filed in federal court, the very first thing the court does is decide if they even have jurisdiction to hear the case (seems pretty obvious, huh?). Cases are kicked out really quickly if they don't because a) why waste time on it? and b) clears their dockets faster.
Here, the Cincy court completely skipped that part, as did the 6th Circuit.
Fortunately, the Supreme Court looked at it and said "Sorry, can't pass step 1. Buh-bye"
So, jack-be-not-so-nimble, finding someone with "standing" means mobilizing a government agency to investigate and file. Otherwise, it's dead in the water.
Does anybody still give a flying fuck what Drudge says?
Zenu-the USA Today poll has SD in gray, which means there is insufficient polling data. I think SD stays red. ND, on the other hand, may flip :)
this poll has already been on fox as fact
just goes to show they always pick polls that are better for there guy
thanks nate for showing how much rubbish this poll is
Drudge is now officially Baghdad Bob.
Drudge is just desperate meanwhile Obama hits another high in Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll. This poll actually over samples Republicans also.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_101708.htm
"The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
Obama/Biden 50%
McCain/Palin 40%
Undec 7%
- Obama's 10% lead in today's Diageo/Hotline release equals his largest advantage ever in the tracking poll. The Dem nominee also led 50-40% in the poll completed 10/10.
- Obama now leads 50-37% on who would do the best job handling the economy, the fifth consecutive day he has led the issue by double digits. 66% of LVs and 67% of Indies believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S.
- The candidates meanwhile remain basically deadlocked on energy issues. 43% think Obama would do the best job managing U.S. energy policies, while 42% say McCain. Neither candidate has had a statistically significant lead on energy since the survey completed 10/10.
Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/14-16 by FD, surveyed 804 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I."
Obama Rally in VA
Link
Fidel Castro on the crisis in capitalism, Obama, and racism:
http://www.counterpunch.org/castro10132008.html
Drudge is actually helping Dems get over their complacency
Obama live on CNN from Roanoke VA
SUSA Florida polls have been weird the last month.
Last 3 LV polls party affiliation
9/16 Dem 43 Repub 41
9/27 Dem 40 Repub 42
10/17 Dem 40 Repub 44
So they are selling Dems went from +3 to repub +4..that's a 7pt switch in party ID. This makes absolutely no sense in the overall political climate, Obama resources and GOTV in Fla, as well as a 465,000+ voter reg advantage as of begining of septmeber which grew in the last month.
In the lastest poll both have equal support from their own party (80%)and Obama +1 on cross overs and Obama winning Indie's(+3) yet he's behind?
Everyone who studies Fl knows with the Dem party ID advantage in Fla if a dem hits 80% Dem support in Fla it's lights out. Dems lose florida when they get below 75% Dem support in their party. Also, they have McCain getting 22% of AA vote and Obama doing 11pts worse than Kerry, pure fantasy.
the 'close' polls like Drudge tries to sell will be great for even more Obama fund-raising efforts to close out the cycle.
a total consensus blowout would naturally depress donations & enthusiasm IMHO
---------------------------------------
SUSA FL results M+2 are just fine for Obama - it will help drive up DEM enthusiasm even more as early voting at the polls commences on Monday
plus other recent polls all show Obama out front, so no worries here in the 'sunshine state'
IF the GOPers need to pour all their resources into FL to try to salvage this red state, that leaves fewer for all the other battlegrounds like OH & MO & NC & NV plus add IN & WV & ND & GA & MT
they already are 'toast' in VA & NM & IA & NH & CO [IMHO]
the poor SUSA FL internals show Obama is well positioned, and it misses the strong GOTV efforts
just read the story 'Obama bets big on Florida turnout'
@ http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-florida17-2008oct17,0,3427483.story
FL is going BLUE !!!
as I like to say, red is so last electoral season...
i'm confused with Ohio. my wife mentioned something this morning about 200,000 newly registered voters registrations being pulled. i understand the supreme court was looking at whether the state could force Ohioans to jump through hoops on election day to proce they are who they say they are and the Supreme Court called that BS, is that right?
SUSA-FL: McCain 49, Obama 47
SUSA's previous FL poll was three weeks ago, and was M48-O47.
The first non-partisan poll to show a McCain lead in FL since.....SUSA three weeks ago!
What a worthless poll. Take a look at the internals. The sample was of 1,528 registered voters, of which 873 were Democrats and 650 were Republicans. Do the math; that's a grand total of 5 independents.
This poll isn't worth the electrons it's printed on.
dailydem:
I appreciate your concern for my reputation. May I point out that when we post rude comments with no analysis we look like an ass?
Obama now +5.3 (45.9 to 40.6) in the TIPP tracking poll.
This is the one that the wingnuts were touting as "winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster" early this week when Obama was up 2. Obama has added on to a lead every day in this one.
Polling outfits should be careful this time. There are so many polls this cycle that you can catch an outlier with bad internals instantly. The pollster lose credibility big time when they do that. I would argue that florida will probably have a few more Pubs then they would have if not for that skank Mahoney, but less than 1% change. SUSa would probably be in line with the 10 other pollsters that have it at O+4-5 right now if they had polled the right Demo.
becky sharp,
The internals of the last 3 SUSA FL polls are weird to put it mildly.
"Drudge is a partisan hack. Can't wait to see his headline on the Fifth."
I predict it will be "ACORN Voter Fraud Steals Election for Obama!!!" or he'll simply ignore the whole thing like he did for the Troopergate abuse of power findings.
@eric
I think its fairly straightforward. Supreme court just said the OH courts have to give the sec. of state enough time to verify all the non matching registrations.
There were 200,000 non matching registrations - this must be the number your wife mentioned
eric,
The status in Ohio is as it has been since the primaries. Show up to vote with ID. If you match, you get a ballot. If you don't, you do provisional.
The Cuyahoga Bd of Elections has even shuffled poll workers out of their usual precincts to avoid the temptation of letting people they know vote without ID.
The message has gotten through to voters as well. In a recent special election, EVERY voter showed up ID in hand. No surprise, no delay, just determination.
Additionally, the push for mail in and early voting has been huge here.
Regarding the SUSA Florida poll, they do not usually normalize for party I.D. I believe.
The poll is within the margin of error and I think accurately represents that Florida is close.
I do not think we should be counting Florida's electoral votes for Obama just yet. I think O has a good shot at FL, but with VA and CO and NM looking very strong with IA out of reach for McCain, getting FL would just be icing on the cake, and maybe a little poetic justice.
How pathetic the comments have become. All the cooks are out in full force on both sides. We wonder why the country is broken, just look at what this election has turne into.
Complete nonsense.
ok, in an effort to be 'fair & balance' today's ONE day results in the R2000 national tracker is not great news for Obama @ only O+6:
Yesterday's Results
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
10/16 44 50 2 2 1 1
BUT one random single day in a small sample is no cause for alarm since the 3 day average is still a very healthy O+10
especially when averaged across the other polls that show what appears to be 'movement' in the opposite direction, including Hotline, IBD-TIPP & Zogby which all reflected better results today then the days before...
so let's all not cherry-pick too much, but it is OK to find solace in results for either side - except the Obama is still maintaining a nice comfortable lead across all the polls while widening the state level polling advantages in the EC
madre,
The media has completely ignored Troopergate findings for the most part. She was found to have abused her power and her husband essentailly running a shadwo goverment meeting with public officials and attending government meetings and being CC'ed governemnt business emails. Abuse of power is a huge deal and especiallt from someone in her debate said that she wished for expansion of powers of the VP even beyoong what Cheney has done. This is an untold story.
Admiral Akbar: It's a trap.
On the provision of HAVA that is protected from private suits: You know this was probably designed to keep Democratic groups from challenging it.
How quickly things change. :)
Congrats Nate! You were proven right on your suspicions about Intrade!
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Gaming_Intrade.html?showall
Great work!!
I'm waiting for that Gallup poll that will show the MCCAIN SURGE continuing!
Dave axes: "Does anybody still give a flying fuck what Drudge says?"
Only in the sense that Drudge is the conduit by which Republican talking points are disseminated to the faithful who don't get the blast fax. It's where we, as informed citizens, can go to see what meme the right wing is pushing today. "Know thine enemy", sayeth the Lord (or was it Sun Tzu?).
The Drudge Report is my Dad's homepage...
I bet not only will McCain continue to surge, he will be within the margin of error in the Gallup poll!
Watching Obama-
He looks and sounds exhausted. He can still do this, but he looks like he can't wait for this to be over.
He has only this one stop today - curious about this. Why?
1) Security - are they limiting events because of all the strain on the SS at this point?
2) Taping some new spots today?
3) Stopping off in Chicago to see his kids and spend night at home?
So did Justice Kennedy just make amends for 2000?
becky sharp,
Not to nitpick here, but the Supreme Court did not direct the SoS to do anything. The case is dead, TRO vacated as if it never existed.
The non-matches will be sorted out by the county bds of election. Proper ID takes care of any fraud issues.
NATE GETS PROPS ON POLITICO FOR INTRADE
Gaming Intrade
Nate Silver was right: An internal report finds that a single investor was keeping McCain's stock high on the prediction market Intrade.
In doing so, of course, that investor was handing money to the other participants in the online market.
The motive remains a little unclear. Intrade isn't an important enough driver of conventional wisdom for it really to make sense to pump up McCain's stock to boost his prospects, though that's a possible reason to do it. (Would the money then count as a contribution?). The story also suggests, but doesn't really explain, that the investor was buying McCain as a "hedge" against some other investment.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
Amazing quote from the intrade article
“Who knows who’s doing it, it’s obviously someone who wants good news for McCain,”
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265&referrer=js
Good news? Or EXCELLENT NEWS!!!
The MSM is trying their best to make this a race. All I am seeing is stuff like "Is McCain making a comeback?" "Can McCain beat the odds?"
So I guess they are trying to make McCain Rocky Balboa now?
The MSM is trying their best to give this election to McCain. I expect to see him win most of the news cycles leading up to election day. They are trying to will the undecided voters to McCain...
OK, Barack PLEASE stop with the 'pie shop' story in the stump speech...
he just used it again right now in VA
I am tired of the whole sweet potato pie & cream pie story...
obviously it must test real high because they have been using it endlessly for the past week in every speech, I swear
it ,ust be to appeal to the 'Pushing Daisies' crowd that he is one of y'all
plus he drawls 'sweeeeet puhtatoe pyuuh' like he is from the south, which I guess annoys me ALOT !!!
I do understand why his speech coach must be prompting him to use the easy slow drawl as a method to connect - but come-on !!!
do not mess with MY sweet potato pie !!! get your own...
REPUBS OWN PRINCIPLES COME BACK TO BITE THEM IN SUPREME COURT RULING!
Ohio Dems win in Supreme Court
SCOTUS rules that the Ohio Secretary of State isn't required to provide local officials with lists that could be used to strike registrations.
UPDATE: Here's the ruling (.pdf), which hinges on pretty technical stuff.
ALSO: A reader makes the point that the Democrats won on a conservative judicial principle: The presumption "that federal statutes did not create a private right of enforcement in federal courts, and that there needed to be a clear statement that such a remedy existed in the statute itself. That's what happened here--it was a conservative judicial finding that wound up helping the Democrats."
As SCOTUSblog explains:
The Supreme Court said it was not expressing any opinion on whether the state official had violated any duty under federal law. But, it said, it was not persuaded that the federal law gives a private party — like the state GOP — a right to go to court to enforce those provisions in the Help America Vote Act.
The IBD/TIPP poll shows a 5-point Obama lead with a huge number of undecideds.
According to Chuck Todd, both Obama and McCain expect people who claim to be "undecideds" to break 70% for McCain. So TIPP shows a very close election night coming up.
@newfromoh
thanks for the correction - even better news!
"All the cooks are out in full force on both sides."
__________________________________
Good, because I am starving. :)
Well played MrInsight. I salute you!
I find it funny a few of you Obama supporters are jumping for joy that Brunner doesn't have to stop the Voter Fraud in Ohio.
I voted for her because of Blackwell's incompetence and a dismal Republican candidate.
It will cost her in the end. She has wiggled her way through this masterfully. She is a crook!
becky sharp,
I'm just glad the Cincy judge and the 6th Cir got spanked.
Being wrong on an issue of standing/jurisdiction is really a "Doh!" moment in legal terms . . .
It's like first week of law school.
Trader Drove Up Price of McCain ‘Stock’ in Online Market
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265
An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that an investor has been attempting to artificially boost the prediction that Sen. John McCain will become president.
Awww poor Nate is mad that he is totally missing this reversal trend. Sorry Nate, your bias has infected your crappy statistics. Please go home.
Gallup 50-43 in RV, LV's unchanged.
McCain's best night drops tomorrow - we will see where it goes.
Gallup basically unchanged. Obama back to 50-43 in RV.
no article yet but gallup graphic shows it 50-43 (O+1) for RV.
Gallup
50-43
51-45
49-47
Stable from yesterday, with Obama ticking up 1 point with registered voters.
When McCain's big Tuesday and Wednesday numbers start dropping off of Gallup, look for Obama to to reopen up an 8 to 10 point lead in expanded likely voters.
Gallup's out:
+7 RV (Obama gains 1 from yesterday)
+2/+6 in the two LV models
Gallup:
RV:
O: 50 (+1)
M: 43
LV numbers same as yesterday in both models
>>It will cost her in the end. She has wiggled her way through this masterfully. She is a crook!
Right, the Supreme court obviously thinks so too.
Funny how many folks here start out moderate and get progressively more batty with every post
awwwww poor McCain lol
OMG!!!!
Has the McCain SURGE!!! stalled?
tomthress said...
Gallup's out:
+7 RV (Obama gains 1 from yesterday)
+2/+6 in the two LV models
hahahahahahahahha
McCain Surge !!
Obama Surge ??
michael,
Read through stuff carefully. Brunner's not a crook, she's using the system Blackwell created--Blackwell!!!
It's only one part of the system. Just one. There are plenty of other checks (like the ID at the polls).
Brunner is making sure voters can vote, consistent with law, rather than trying to create false barriers. Most of the "inconsistencies" result from typos in inputting the data. Do you really think that's a basis to stop someone from voting?? Like Joe the Plumber, whose name appears as "Wor" rather than "Wur" . . .
Gallup just posted:
50-43 - RV - +1 today
+2 - LV #1
+6 - LV #2
Both unchanged
Hotline - +10 - tied for largest lead yet
Real joe:
Obama Surge ??
NOO!! STAY THE COURSE!!!
OK I'm a believer now. McCain is McToast
Tracking Poll Summary
Rasmussen- Unchanged
Diageo- O+2
Gallup- Unchanged
Zogby- M+1
Battleground- M+2
IBD TIPP- O+2
DailyKos- M+1
Statistical noise today. With the exception of DailyKos, it looks like Obama may start to see a benefit from the post debate period in these polls.
Let's see where we are on Sunday and Monday.
Fresh state numbers from Colorado and Nevada at 3 PM.
Actually Zogby was unchanged
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
"I'm waiting for that Gallup poll that will show the MCCAIN SURGE continuing!"
October 17, 2008 11:55 AM
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
"I bet not only will McCain continue to surge, he will be within the margin of error in the Gallup poll!"
umm..
Drudge may be way off, but us Obama supporters should be fighting like he only has a 2 point lead.
Don't let them pull this one out from under us. Lets make sure we win it by a land slide!
I don't understand how any likely voter model would be worse for Obama than a registered voter model. This year, of any, should provide a huge boost to turnout due to the historic nature of his candidacy. I wonder if it's just some sort of variable they assign to any new voters -- like only 60% show. Not sure.
Shock Poll
Gallup daily tracking Likely Voters
Obama 49
McCain 47
McCain Surge.
Its funny how the lefties downplay the one gallup poll that has any kind of historical modeling.
I'm waiting for that Gallup poll that will show the MCCAIN SURGE continuing!
LOL. Keep waitin, buddy! Gallup RV +1 Obama today. LV Unchanged.
By the way, michael, having just worked an election in Ohio, I can also add that when there's a question about someone's registration that hasn't been cleared up, the signature block in the poll books is blacked out, with a LARGE notation that they must vote provisionally.
I was a skeptic about the voting process but am seriously in awe at the number of safeguards that have been taken in Ohio. It may slow down the process a bit (as in reviewing and counting provisional ballots) but it's anything but lax.
ANT
thanks for the Tracking Poll summary in an easy to follow layout
but I think your Zogby # is incorrect.
the Reuters write-up says it was the samwe result from the previous day, so maybe 'n/c' ?
'Obama keeps five-point lead on McCain'
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE49G0V320081017
fwiw
"Its funny how the lefties downplay the one gallup poll that has any kind of historical modeling."
Funny how Gallup had so many questions about their "historical" model that they came up with a new model for this year.
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
I bet not only will McCain continue to surge, he will be within the margin of error in the Gallup poll!
@Right Wing Conspiricist
ok Dude,Gallup unchanged.
one day closer to election.
you already gave to these fellows your daily farts.
can you now give us a breack ???
Thanks,Well'appreciate.
DKos poll of TX:
O 40
M 52
Shaving the gap to 12 in TX is no small feat. I bet TX goes to single digits by 11/4
So with today's trackers...
Tightened: R2K, Battleground and Zogby.
Lead increased: Hotline, IBD, and Gallup RV.
Flatline: Ras and Gallup LV models.
Really, really stable race, folks...
Gallup daily tracking Likely Voters
Obama 49
McCain 47
McCain Surge.
Its funny how the lefties downplay the one gallup poll that has any kind of historical modeling.
Ok lets assume your right (just for grins).
That means the most McCain leaning of the gazillion daily tracking polls still shows McCain losing (and its not surging either!)
Interesting line from Gallup today-In the Congressional Ballot both likely voter polls give the Dems a 51-45 lead, which interestingly is identical to Obama's lead over McCain in Gallup's expanded likely voter model. I don't know if I am drawing too much of a conclusion from that but it makes me think the expanded likely voter category maybe more accurate.
I agree with what a lot of folks have said here, that the idea that McCain is catching up is good for Obama, even if it's not true. I don't worry about the Obama campaign so much. Those guys have proven they're on the job... but hopefully this will spearhead Obama voters and make sure they get to the polls.
RAS
MO O52 - M46
So, on the trackers:
Zogby - no change.
RS2000 - McCain +1
Rasmussen - no change
Battleground - McCain +2
Hotline - Obama +2
TIPP - Obama +2
Gallup - basically, no change.
Average - Obama gained +0.14%
I think Obama ticks up a little in Rassmussen and Gallup, a drop in RS2000, probably a little drop in Hotline, Tipp probably stays the same, and WTF knows what happens in Zogby on a day to day basis since it's so screwy. In all though, I don't expect the margins to change much tomorrow, though I expect we see an Obama mini-bounce by Sunday.
Who needs a McCain surge to win the election! I quickly made up an election-projection-engine in shockwave, and he wins all the time!
If you're bored, and yes, it's kind of a joke:
http://www.backglass.org/scotts/games/Election/index.htm
You may have to clear your cache to get it to load properly, as the latest shockwave stuff doesn't seem to play well with firefox.
Anyway, like most others here, 538 has now got me fairly addicted to poll numbers, and trying to understand their meanings. So, thanks for a new obsession!
Election 2008: Missouri Presidential Election
Missouri: Obama 52% McCain 46%
Friday, October 17, 2008
Barack Obama has expanded his lead over John McCain in Missouri to six percentage points.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 52% of the vote while McCain is supported by 46%. Earlier this week, Obama was on top 50% to 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election
Everyone, don't foget to remind your Republican friends to not miss the election on November 5th.
Jack-be-nimble
Gallup's restrictive likely voter model discounts increased minority turnout. However, in this election, minorities are ALREADY voting in increased numbers - look at the Georgia state numbers I've posted, where black turnout as a percentage of the overall vote is running 11% points above 2004 exit polls (36% versus 25%).
Gallup's traditional LV model has already been proven wrong.
PIERRE
your conclusion is correct even if your classification of the individualpollsters was not quite accurate...
Michael,
You are clearly ignorant of the Ohio case by your comments and know little about voter laws. It was clear case of last minute attempt of voter suppression by an illegal purge attempt. I would educate you, but it would be clearly lost upon you, as you buy the republican talking points so easily. Educate yourself and don't be fodder for the Republicon game of, if you tell a lie long enough, it somehow becomes true.
@matt
Looking at the FL Road to 270 profile, Nate has it R 40, D37 as of 2004, so R+4 for SUSA survey is close (at least to the 2004 numbers; not sure if they've changed in FL).
Holy cow at Missouri.
Nate was right again - on intrade manipulation by a single 'rogue' trader (possibly affiliated with McCain campaign)
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002976265
Jack be nimble,
someone pointed out the other day that historically Gallup misses out by about 3% in Presidential elections. Also doesn't Nate's model assume more accuracy in RVs the closer you get to the election? So actually your argument is completely wrong. If anything the traditional RV model is the least likely to be accurate.
DCM,
Which one wasn't accurate?
Zogby for some odd reason uses decimal places and it tightened there by .5%, while rounding to the same as yesterday.
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1595
Obama can lose this if the Democrats forget to sprint through the finish, just like that one girl at the Olympics did. Otherwise, barring a high-profile endorsement from Osama bin Laden, voter fraud on a Zimbabwean scale, or his untimely death, he wins this thing. There's just nothing John McCain can do at this point.
The old gallup likely voter model at plus 2 Obama is a joke. Everyone knows the likely voter model will be much closer to the 2nd version.
Demographics have channged and there are less republicans than they had in 2004 plus the increased AA and youth vote.
They need to just quit covering their ass and go with the updated one.
""All the cooks are out in full force on both sides."
__________________________________
Good, because I am starving. :)
"
More pie?
GaMeS said...
Personally, I'd really be interested in seeing some empirical research on turnout vis-a-vis landslides. The conventional wisdom being spouted right now is that the perception of a landslide might depress turnout on the winning side and cause Obama to lose the election. That may be true ... but I don't know that I can think of any empirical study that verifies this. (A very quick glance at JSTOR doesn't find anything, but I'm still looking through some abstracts.)
The alternative -- which is equally plausible -- is that the perception of a landslide depresses turnout on the losing side faster than on the winning side. In other words, it multiplies the effect.
Okay, I found an article that seems to support my hypothesis:
Brown, Courtney. 1993. "Nonlinear Transformation in a Landslide." American Journal of Political Science 37:582-609.
Overall turnout tends to drop during a landslide, but this drop is not coming from the winning side. The winning side drops a bit, certainly, but the losing side drops much more.
Fascinating stuff. =)
PIERRE
'Obama keeps five-point lead on McCain'
correct, it is a 'rounding' issue & a semantic dance
but then all the poll results are subject to rounding which does account for much of the noise they generate on a daily basis.
wish they would all report to 1 or 2 places of significance which would help stop the rounding distortion even more
but the averaging acroos the polls helps tamp down the noise now that there are so many trackers
fwiw
Research 2000 Mississippi
M: 50
O: 40
Senate race:
Wicker: 47
Musgrove: 46
Bob Barr surge?
Fwiw, my sister used to work for Knowledge Networks. They were founded by a Stanford Poli Sci professor named Doug Rivers. They are definitely legit in the sense that they are attempting to do stastically valid polling (as described above using accepted sampling methods).
Not to say their results (as the results of any poll) might not be skewed due to methodology or what have you, but I sincerely doubt they are trying to create a bad poll. They certainly aren't an Internet poll in the sense of "want to vote? click here!"
Of course, even if the poll is legitimate, the point remains that its a result which is both old and cherrypicked.
CHARLES
you & BHO can get your own damm sweet potato pies !!!
Wicker-Musgrove have had some pretty negative ads. They are each trying to make the other look no better than a hardened criminal.
It would be funny if it weren't so sad.
Great point Nate! I googled the weird results immediately and even Yahoo has much different results posted on the horse race. I enjoy checking Drudge, but one must do so with a healthy dose of skepticism. I don't mind a right-wing perspective, and that does not need to equal such a blindingly disingenuous posting that Drudge used there.
Look at RCP's poll selection for MO, then look at the Obama +2.5, then look at the chart.
The poll selections hows bias, the graph shows stupidity.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_mccain_vs_obama-545.html
Question of the day: How does "Joe the Plumber" have enough time between all his plumbing activities to learn to recite republican talking points more articulately and professionally than the Republican candidate for Vice President?
Great to see that the Republican attempt to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of legitimate voters in Ohio just got kicked into space by the Supreme Court. Now the poor Republicans are going to have to come up with another plan to try to steal this election.
I hate to even say this but I'd really like to hear legitimate (i.e. non-troll) views on this?
What are the chances that Colin Powell would endorse McCain?? Seems like slim and none to me given his knowledge of McCain's temperament and recent run of slime, but . . .
Don't forget there are alot of lazy and uneducated voters out there who want the MSM to tell them who to vote for. And with the MSM pushing hard for McCain now to make this a race I can see this playing a big part. The GOP knows this and it's why Fox News is such a HUGE advantage for them.
Only 10 points in MS??
Wow!
McCain will still win there, but his margins are really low for any GOP candidate of recent memory
lovin the siren, YES!
Looks like the show me state is going to show us once again eh?
matt said...
Research 2000 Mississippi
M: 50
O: 40
DAMN.
bryen193,
I think it has to do with innate intelligence, not that Joe's particularly brilliant, but . . .
Oh my God. Somebody please go check Ron Paul's wikipedia page. Look what someone has done.
"Looks like the show me state is going to show us once again eh?"
I wonder if Sen. Claire McCaskill's people showed Obama how to win in Mo...she was an Obama supporter early on and helped him to his (unexpected) win in the Mo primary. Looks to me like she's shown him the winning formula...
Question of the day: How does "Joe the Plumber" have enough time between all his plumbing activities to learn to recite republican talking points more articulately and professionally than the Republican candidate for Vice President?
Most people I know wouldn't hire an unlicensed plumber.
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