Very quick observation about Georgia's senate race, which along with California's Proposition 8, may be the thing to watch on Election Night in the event of an Obama blowout. The polls, from what I can tell, are showing a fairly high undecided vote among the African-American population. Rasmussen's most recent poll, which had Saxby Chambliss up by two, shows that 12 percent of black voters are undecided in the senate race. Were those voters to split 4:1 to Jim Martin, that would be worth a net of around 2 points to him, making the race a tie. SurveyUSA, likewise, shows a higher rate of undecideds among black voters (7%) than among whites (3%).
Related thought: it's very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It's pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like. So if the Georgia polls have Obama down by 4 or 5 points, but Martin down by 2 or 3 points (as they do), something doesn't quite seem right; I'd think the gap should be a bit wider.
Basically, I think this race is a true toss-up rather than a Lean R. African-American voters might be unfamiliar with Jim Martin, who didn't become the nominee until August, but the 'D' beside his name is worth a lot.
Same dynamics may hold to some extent in Roger Wicker's seat in Mississippi, although Wicker is definitely the favorite in that race.
10.30.2008
Are the Polls Lowballing Jim Martin (GA-Sen)?
@ 9:14 AM
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first?
Word verification: Cones
LOL
I read yesterday, I think, that the Georgia ballot does not have R or D next to the candidate names.
Good observation Nate.
ALSO: Can you post a list of links to all Road to 270 entries? That way, we can track specific counties in each state by referring to your analysis of each state.
/3rd?
Rasmussen can't take it anymore.
Completely gives up and throws in the towel.
Calls it 364 EVs to Obama.
The End.
sherwick said...
Rassmussen gives up and throws in the towel. Give 364 EVs to Obama.
*** Rasmussen's Balls Explode ***
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_last_word_almost
47 min ago rasmussen called it
Time - CNN Polls:
Pennsylvania: Obama 55%, McCain 43%
North Carolina: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Nevada: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Ohio: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Arizona: McCain 53%, Obama 46%
DKos:
O 50
M 45
Fair and balanced - the Obama/Lucifer connection...
Faux
Quck thought that might buck what Nate says. How many black voters are actually going to vote for the down ticket races? Anyone any idea about this? I mena if they are just voting to vote for Obama, does voting for anyone else necesarily follow?
Aunt Karen said...
I read yesterday, I think, that the Georgia ballot does not have R or D next to the candidate names.
I just now got back from voting for Martin, and party affiliation was beside everyone's names.
GA will not vote Dem: Up or Down ballot.
The surprise election in the Senate: New Jersey. Lautenberg will lose.
Other races to watch: McConnell's anemic margin of victory in KY while McCain wins in a romp. Dole wins a squeaker as well. Coleman wins easily as McCain surprises in MN. Palin factor.
Word Verification: veyginga -- the nether regions of elderly Jewish women with qualms over voting for a possible PLO sympathizer!
@joseph: Just click on the "Road to 270" link under "Labels" on the left side of the home page.
@richard
Thanks. I stand happily corrected. It's another state then, maybe VA.
Martin should poll better than Obama because of white guilt. They vote for McCain, either knowingly or unknowingly because he's black, but the guilt sets in nonetheless. To compensate for that, they vote for Martin instead of Chambliss because in their heart of hearts they feel bad about their McCain vote, and feel the need to make amends.
Rasmussen calls it??? A bit premature, is it not? That'll really endear him to the FReeptards.
"Rasmussen calls it??? A bit premature, is it not? That'll really endear him to the FReeptards."
It hasn't been premature in weeks, possibly months. But they'll just ignore him. They ignore anything that they don't want to hear.
When will Nate call it ?
Nate:
I've got a blog entry up on this subject, pointing out a related problem with these polls. Those that have offered demographic subgroups are currently showing black turnout at an average of 26% of voters. That would actually represent a decrease from 2004, relative to registration, something I find incredibly implausible.
"Word Verification: veyginga -- the nether regions of elderly Jewish women with qualms over voting for a possible PLO sympathizer!"
hahahaha. Nice. Who says that conservatives are bible thumping losers with no sense of humor!
ant put it on the other thread:
Rasmussen
O-51
M-46
he didn't actually call it, did he? he just projected the race as of today.
I think the Daily Kos has it at
50 O
44 M (-1)
and it is mis-reported on polster.com (they report yesterday's numbers as today's).
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/10/29
Random thought, and maybe a great, extra-credit test for the model:
Given the poll closing times (7:30 in NC) and assuming no recounts or incredibly long count times, what is the state whose results will result in a Obama victory?
I.e., what (relative) "time" is Chuck Todd likely to call the race? After IL? VA?
"a possible PLO sympathizer"
Yeah, I think it's a crime that McCain donated $800,000 to the man's group also. Glad we're on the same page, pete.
Is the NBC poll for PA on an offfical website or the only links available now are to a thread on a forum?
Cause could this poll just be fake then?
If the 625 sample size is correct, then I don't see how that's small for one state?
Rasmussen only uses 500 and they seem to be respected here.
Petekent and Shadow... you guys are crazy
I think Liddy Dole will lose She deserves to lose after attacking a sunday school teacher as godless
Is Sabato in charge of Ras's state polling?
Actually dKos has it at O50-M45, which I believe makes them one of the most pro-McCain polls out there! Do you think RCP is regretting not having them in their average???
51 (+1) - 46 (-1)
taht's why Rasmussen called it
"what is the state whose results will result in a Obama victory?"
California. Or Oregon or Washington, depending on the order they call them when their polls close.
Rasmussen
O-51
M-46
McCain SURGE!!
So now the race is over and Obama's won, what thoughts do people have on the McCain campaign? Could he have done things differently? Could he have timed things differently? Did he rely too much on tactics while havign no coherent strategy?
Ras didn't call the race - he has a guest commentary by Larry Sabato that projects Obama winning handily. It's Sabato's next-to-last projection - he will give his final update on Monday. But it doesn't represent Rasmussen's views in any way.
Everyone will be breathing a little easier this morning...
...even Drudge has a random poll to flog in that PA outlier.
"Given the poll closing times (7:30 in NC) and assuming no recounts or incredibly long count times, what is the state whose results will result in a Obama victory?"
I think California will be the one that puts him over officially. Other's might be in his favor before then, but many will have their results withheld due to uncertainty. California will definitely be THE call.
Fair and balanced - the Obama/Lucifer connection...
Not sure what's worse there. The article or the comments.
I like how Pinkerton makes Obama culpable for Kerner, Walker, and Ryan.
Barack Obama = responsible for every bad thing ever
@rays251 - I don't think anyone is questioning the legitimacy of the M-D PA poll, but it's fair to point out that no other recent poll of the state has it that close - Ras at O +7 the only one that's even in the ballpark. That's why you need to look at the polling in aggregate.
from Atlanta here.
I don't see either candidate getting over the 50% needed to prevent a runoff. So the polls today aren't nearly as important as the polls on Dec 1.
This race is just getting started next Wednesday. Unfortunately (from my pov) the right will have an advantage getting out their base with Obama off the ticket.
Our economy is like my penis in a cold pool....shrinkage!!
"Word Verification: veyginga -- the nether regions of elderly Jewish women with qualms over voting for a possible PLO sympathizer!"
Hehehe
nordma: a Scandinavian matriarch
I'm surprised that Rasmussen didn't wait until tomorrow to call the race for Obama..
"So now the race is over and Obama's won, what thoughts do people have on the McCain campaign? Could he have done things differently? Could he have timed things differently? Did he rely too much on tactics while havign no coherent strategy?"
He completely failed to stay on message (any message, pick a message!) for more than a month at a time, and that hurt him, but it wasn't decisive. He didn't just veer from messages, he'd contradict the ones he already had out there.
In the end, though, he was from the incumbent party in a bad economic time facing an opponent with superior organizational skills and more money.
It was over before it began.
what state will put Obama over the top... well if he wins all the so called toss ups taht will get him to 375... then a midwest state like MO, IL, IA etc. will be the calling state... if no MO or IN or something it could be a mountain west state
The McCain 2008 Campaign: Over Before It Began.
RIP.
Remember Nate's 2/2/2 rule - unless McCain can poll within 2 points, in 2 non-partisan polls, in 2 of the 3 key states (CO, VA, PA), he has no realistic chance to win. And today's O +4 from Mason/Dixon in PA doesn't fall into that criteria.
So, Rass and Zogby moved towards Obama before the prime time ad. I'm guessing that was just regression back to the mean of about 5-6 points. Good news. We'll see tomorrow how well the appeal worked. As I said earlier, my middle of the road mom (sometimes D sometimes R) called nearly in tears she liked it so much. She said she hasn't liked a presidential candidate so much since JFK. So, I'm hoping there are more like her.
Not to mention, McCain is about a decade past his prime and showing it (mentally and physically).
@Liam (not liam hedge)
"what exactly changes during these 10,000 simulations? Are a few variables (voter turnout, weather, I don't know) randomized?"
Basically, what varies is the number of votes for each of the candidates, based on the computed probabilities. For example, if the current probabilities for FL are 70% O, 30% M, then the simulated vote outcome will be distributed around that mean ratio. For example, during one run, the breakdown might be 65/35, during the next 45/55, etc. How the outcomes are distributed around the 70/30 mean is dependent on various factors, including the expected margin of error, state-to-state demographic correlations, etc.
"If so, it seems like since Nate's building the model he wouldn't have to actually run the simulations."
In principle, that's true. But the math becomes intractable, and Monte Carlo simulations are frequently used in that kind of situation. I've done the same thing when I used to model the way that light propagates through biological tissues: You have a physical model, so you could, in principle, compute the answer directly. But the equations are so horrendously complex that there is no practical way to solve the problem.
["hetiv" - A sweet dessert originating in southwestern Turkey]
The McCain 2008 Campaign: A Decade Late and a Dollar Short.
Al Gore to return to FL to campaign for Obama
The polls ARE low balling Martin. I have relatives and friends in Georgia, who are voting like it is their life. I don't care about Obama winning Georgia, but I want Martin to win that seat against Chambliss. And Chambliss is sweating this, those AA voters are not in line to VOTE FOR HIM. Their votes can win it for Martin.
I know that only one person brought this up but the Georgia ballot does have D's and R's because I voted a straight ticket for dems.
@sherwick:
So now the race is over and Obama's won, what thoughts do people have on the McCain campaign? Could he have done things differently? Could he have timed things differently? Did he rely too much on tactics while havign no coherent strategy?
Sorry, but it ain't over until it's over. Remember, ObL released his tape the day before the election on 2004, which caused a late swing towards Bush. Anything can happen.
I refuse to take anything for granted until McCain concedes to Obama on election night. And even that might be iffy.
real joe - The Return of the Jedi?
"what state will put Obama over the top... well if he wins all the so called toss ups taht will get him to 375... then a midwest state like MO, IL, IA etc. will be the calling state... if no MO or IN or something it could be a mountain west state"
Close states won't be called for a couple hours after their poll closing. Look first at surefire wins, and assume the really tight races will be withheld for two hours. By my testing on 270towin.com, California(Oregon, Washington) is THE state, although if Obama has a miraculously awesome night, it could be Colorado. Alternatively, it could be Oregon or Washington depending on which one they decide to call first. I highly doubt this thing will be official until California slams down its 55 EV.
pleasion?
Petekent, your delusions crack me up.
word verification: warons—moronic warmongers?
On election night, the Obama "Magic Number" is 193 for a call. If the networks have called 193 or more electoral votes for Obama before 10PM ET/7 PT, it's over.
WA, OR, CA, and HI have a combined 77 Electoral votes that are all safely blue.
So am I right in saying today's results reflect polls taken entirely before last night's broadcast?
wetwang: a moist penis. I'm sorry but there we are.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119578/posts#comment
The best part is most of these gobshites actually believe McCain is leading on the economy. If McCain is leading Obama in ANY poll on the economy, then Obama is trouncing McCain on douchebaggery.
Did you see him last night Larry King? I can't believe he's still trying to make an issue out of Obama's fundraising.
Hold tight folks. I'm guessing that in a few days we're see a slight up swing in the polls for Obama in the wake of his Wednesday evening half hour commercial. And that up swing may have a slightly demoralizing effect on the GOP going into the crucial final days. That's just my conjecture, but I bet that will be the case.
By the way, that Faux News article about the devil is wild. I can't believe they seriously put that up on their website. It's as if the Church Lady of SNL wrote an op-ed piece for them. Wild.
What did Patton say? He knew the Germans were losing when he saw them using carts to move their wounded. I think we're seeing the same thing with the irrational attack lines coming out of the McCain campaign and its surrogates. And now the Republicans are starting to turn on each other as they look for a scape goat for the impending defeat.
The final days for the GOP campaign are starting to remind me of the Japanese film "Ran", a take on Shakespeare's King Lear, where brother turns on brother in a bloody self-destructive, fratricidal war. Yes, that's how I see them losing.
"Sorry, but it ain't over until it's over. Remember, ObL released his tape the day before the election on 2004, which caused a late swing towards Bush. Anything can happen. "
Not really. Bush was clearly leading in the polls before that. The tape didn't really do anything.
Early voting has already clinched this for Obama. Half of Nevada has already voted, and it's clear Obama has a decisive lead there. Kerry States + IA + NM have him clearly ahead enough that a late swing won't be enough, and Nevada is in the bag, and that's enough to win right there.
We are in live boy/dead girl territory quite literally.
It's over! Go home! Sleep in on Election Day. The weather will be nice: play golf or steal a car, whatever your pleasure!
Meanwhile: McCain's voters will come out of the Woods to vote for him.
Word ver: scessnes -- a bastardized form of the word success that indicates a condition leading to failure brought on by an overweeing, misplaced self-confidence.
Does anyone still look at Battleground's polls? It's been at 49-46 for 5 straight days now. With no weekend polling, it might manage to give that result from here on out.
10/30
Diageo
O-48 (-1)
M-42
Battleground
O-49
M-46
Barack Obama = responsible for every bad thing ever
Maybe that's why Bill Clinton is loving Obama these days—it's no longer going to be Bill's fault!
Word verification: urisessa
Who's calling me a sissy?
To use the football cliche, I hope Obama ends up "hanging half a hundred" on McCain. That would take the "iffy" out of the equation.*
The one thing this year is that the Democratic side is committed to finishing strong. The Closing Argument speech is proof that they aren't taking it for granted.
*Although the fringe right will claim that ACORN was responsible for x+Obamamarginofvictory "illegal" votes.
"ackso"
To use the football cliche, I hope Obama ends up "hanging half a hundred" on McCain. That would take the "iffy" out of the equation.*
The one thing this year is that the Democratic side is committed to finishing strong. The Closing Argument speech is proof that they aren't taking it for granted.
*Although the fringe right will claim that ACORN was responsible for x+Obamamarginofvictory "illegal" votes.
"ackso"
Sorry if someone already posted it, but where did Rasmussen say that Obama would be pulling down 364 EVs? Link?
(word verification = "deati"; How McCain perceives Obama's self-image)
"So now the race is over and Obama's won, what thoughts do people have on the McCain campaign? Could he have done things differently? Could he have timed things differently? Did he rely too much on tactics while havign no coherent strategy?"
Somehow he got it in his head early on that the way to beat Obama was to play the "lack of experience" card. He must have found Hillary's playbook in the trash somewhere. The problem is that when McCain goes negative he isn't nearly as likable as when he's just being himself (the McCain from Larry King last night).
Also, while he's given the right plenty to vote against, he hasn't given the middle very much to vote for.
In short, he should have stayed positive and focused on the middle. Let the surrogates handle the dirty work.
Oh yeah, and Romney as VP would have helped.
"He must have found Hillary's playbook in the trash somewhere."
I'll never understand this. He had a clear, real-life example of how to fail to defeat Barack Obama right in front of him for months, then he went out and used the exact same strategy. Bizarre
Martin will win GA; Obama will (probably) lose. The reason? There's a lot of Republicans who won't have Dem at the top of the ticket because of defense and social issues, but frankly are sick of the Republican malfeasance with the economy and domestic issues.
In fact, this commonly happens all over the country, and explains why we have democratic governors in states like Kansas and Tennessee, even though these states won't vote dem at the presidential level for decades.
By splitting their vote, these Republicans can feel that they are still pragmatic, rational voters.
I'm totally gonna buy the Joe the Plumber record when it's released, oh yeah baby!. I love his music, it's soo soothing.
Just the noises of bubbling shitty water from a septic tank coupled with the horrible vocals of a man who cannot sing. God, what bliss. It's like listening to angels speak soothing words in your ears!
*unanswered question from previous post*
I've had a nagging question about the simulations that has been driving me nuts. I hope someone can explain it for me - what exactly changes during these 10,000 simulations? Are a few variables (voter turnout, weather, I don't know) randomized? If so, it seems like since Nate's building the model he wouldn't have to actually run the simulations.
Or are individual factors manually tweaked bit by bit over 10,000 gradations? If so, it seems like some of those scenarios would be less likely than others and shouldn't count as much as the rest.
Directly related question: What happened in the simulation where John McCain wins the EC by a landslide?
Thanks for your help in advance!
B Mac said...
Sorry if someone already posted it, but where did Rasmussen say that Obama would be pulling down 364 EVs? Link?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_last_word_almost
Word ver: scessnes -- a bastardized form of the word success that indicates a condition leading to failure brought on by an overweeing, misplaced self-confidence.
Good one.
OpenID Antmatic said...
10/30
Diageo
O-48 (-1)
M-42
Don't like Obama losing that point here.
Word verification: feakent—McCain surge in PeteKent's fecund imagination.
Other than those two pay attention to see if Michele Bachmann is thrown the hell out of her senate seat. That is something I am ready to see.
I'm a little worried that Obama's coattails could actually help Prop 8. African Americans are more likely to be Yes voters on Prop 8, and if Black turnout surges in California, that could be enough to break that tie.
Liddy Dole will not win here in NC. The ads she's running do not fit the image she's cultivated. As a result, even staunch republicans are viewing her as desperate. The fact that her opponent was a Sunday school teacher just emphasizes that fact. The "she's anti-gun add featuring Rosie ODonnell footage was much more effective - hell, Rosie even scares me.
(WV - fursu. As in I worry about the fursu of the US economy.)
Also, Rasmussen reporting today that Norm Coleman is pulling ahead of Al Franken, 43-39... I'm still not buying it.
jk
zzyzx said...
Everyone will be breathing a little easier this morning...
zzyzx do you know why I've banned from poll watcher forum?? I can't get a hold of vcon or anyboy I''m tryng to apologize!!
Blogger someperson718 said...
Other than those two pay attention to see if Michele Bachmann is thrown the hell out of her senate seat.
She's running for the House. Sabato is calling this one for Ticklenberg.
Muhlenberg/Morning Call Pa Daily Tracker:
Obama - 54
McCain- 41
McGranps/Failin continues to surge backwards.
@10 AM John McCain holds a "Road to Victory" rally at a junior high school in Defiance, Ohio
afterwards, McCain is expected to participate in a sprited game of dodgeball.
inkstain what'd you think of the half our spot.
@inkstain:
Yeah, the ObL tape was a bad example. A better example might be a major gaffe, or God forbid, a 9/11 style terrorist attack, or something equally catastrophic and unforeseen.
Of course, even that might not be enough - but then again, it might. McCain's chances to win are small - Nate's figure of 4% is probably about right. But 4% is not 0%.
"inkstain what'd you think of the half our spot."
I didn't watch it. I was out cleaning up at Oktoberfest Trivia Night.
zzyzx can you help me get a hold of vcon or vonschiller??
@petekent:
Meanwhile: McCain's voters will come out of the Woods to vote for him.
So, these McCain voters who live in the woods - do they have clothes? Because I don't think they'll let you into polling places if you're naked. You may want to pop over and give them some tunics, and maybe some wild locusts and honey for their trouble.
HTH
"Yeah, the ObL tape was a bad example. A better example might be a major gaffe, or God forbid, a 9/11 style terrorist attack, or something equally catastrophic and unforeseen."
A major gaffe wouldn't be enough. That'll swing independents, but that isn't enough. In order to win, McCain would have to convince Obama voters to change their minds as well, and a mere gaffe (no matter how major) wouldn't do that. And a terrorist attack at this point isn't going to sway them either.
A paper in the UK did a list of the 25 turning points of the election (sorry, can't remember which one since it was days ago and I'm on info overload!!) Many were related to the primaries (yawn--ancient history at this point). In starting a list on turning points of this campaign, I offer the following:
1. Mc's waste of months after primaries.
1a. After acknowledging weakness on economic issues, post-primary downtime would have been well used in seeking input from a variety of sources, not just "nation of whiners" Gramm.
1b. Perhaps vetting possible VP contenders to address econ weakness would have been a wise thing to do??? Even if this econ collapse wasn't on his screen, he had to know the econ would be a topic in the campaign . . .
1c. Developing a multifaceted campaign narrative
2. Palin, Palin, Palin. Too much can be said here--on every front but here's the three I see as the worst:
2a. Bringing out someone new guarantees a media feeding frenzy. It guarantees that the most trivial facts about the new one will dominate news cycles--thereby distracting from any coherent message (assuming, of course, that you even have a coherent message . . .)
2b. Pandering to the fundies in contravention of what was viewed as one of his strengths
2c. Negating yet another one of his own strengths of supposed experience
I'm sure we can add to these to reach a top 10? 50? 100?
The only way McCain wins is if Obama completely disqualifies himself (lb/dg) or if the polling data has been wrong all along and he's actually been ahead the whole time. Normal election news, even something as dramatic as a terrorist attack, isn't going to change enough people's minds.
Blogger Jonathan said...
Also, Rasmussen reporting today that Norm Coleman is pulling ahead of Al Franken, 43-39... I'm still not buying it.
This is a tough race to handicap because of Barkley. The pollsters are having to make guesses as to how the voters will actually break—will Barkley supporters actually vote for him and if not how will they break? Personally, I don't see Coleman winning, though according to my Minnesota parents, apparently no one particularly likes Franken.
Pollster John Zogby saying "This is not good news for McCain," is GREAT NEWS!! For John McCain!!
Linkies
dead - I forwarded that apology comment to him.
Abilbio - a biography of someone with little pigment
Thank you zzyzx
deadpixel, apparently you earned a 5-days vacation thanks to you PRE-obsession
i'd recommand a nica plate of logeta, for the time being
I'll never understand this. He had a clear, real-life example of how to fail to defeat Barack Obama right in front of him for months, then he went out and used the exact same strategy.
Because he ain't very smart as has been proven time after time during this campaign
"The GOP won't disclose their estimates; the Obama campaign believes that at least 20 percent of the Democratic early vote nationally are comprised of non-habitual Democratic voters. In some states, like Nevada, the number is around 40%."
Rasputin polls scheduled for release today:
NC
IN
MT
KY
" apparently no one particularly likes Franken."
I wouldn't be too disappointed to see him lose. I'll complain as much as anyone about professional politicians and the need for term limits, but I'm afraid when non-traditional candidates win, I find it a little demeaning to the position. I'm a hypocrite about it.
So far we have Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby all showing a reverse-McCain surge.
Hmmmmmm....
It's the Mississippi ballot that doesn't have party identification, due to the fact that it's a special election.
@oft...
Here is a guess based on this:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/the_last_word_almost
O leading in NC
O is trailing in In
O is trailing in MT
O is trailing in KY
Anyone have a link for the morning call poll?
The Rasmussen tracker underscores the latest swing back to Obama whose lead is going to stretch over the next few days. Most pleasingly it has forced that fat cunt Republican shill Drudge to remove all of his cherry picked bullshit poll links.
5 more days of this crap to go. Let's get it done.
@Liam
"*unanswered question from previous post*"
I replied to some of your questions up above.
["quengis" - Newly discovered documents reveal that his name was actually Quengis Quan, not Ghengkis Kahn]
Barack Beats Daisies
From "The Programming Insider":
8:00 p.m. - Barack Obama Political Message
NBC: 6.7/11 (#1)
CBS: 6.1/10 (#2)
Fox: 5.0/ 8 (#3)
In total, that came to an impressive 17.8 rating/29 share in the 8 p.m. half-hour. Although ABC was hoping facing Barack Obama on three networks would benefit Pushing Daisies, the struggling drama could only muster a fourth-place 4.2/ 7 in the overnights.
Gallup has not released today, sherwick. I assume you are referring to yesterday.
Joseph said...
Good observation Nate.
ALSO: Can you post a list of links to all Road to 270 entries? That way, we can track specific counties in each state by referring to your analysis of each state.
you can click on the tags on the lower left to get all the posts with that tag...
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/road%20to%20270
for example
Mc at a jr high in Defiance, Ohio . . . As an Ohioan, I can't tell you how pathetic that is. It takes a long time to get to Defiance from just about anywhere--it's not close to any population centers . . . Just a strange choice. Had to be "We like the name!!!" Whatever . . .
I understand why McCain used Hillary's playbook. McCain knew if the GE went on straight party lines he would lose. He had to pull Dems over to win. He saw that Hillary's sttacks had been effective with a large group of Dems and hoped to use them to bring them over.
I honestly think it might have worked if he didn't pick Palin. That pick was obvious pandering. It completely contradicted the message he had made that Obama wasn't experienced enough. It made most of the PUMAs realize that McCain was trying to play them and that their policy views aligned better with Obama.
Yes, Palin won over the base for McCain, but that wasn't enough. Huckabee would have done just as good of a job without contradicting his message. Romney would have been the best choice. Romney had traction during the primaries in many of the states McCain is failing in now. IA, MI, NV, CO, MN. Probably OH, PA, and VA. If he would have picked Romney, he could have still used the smears to force the base to hold their noses and vote.
:( That's very bad news....for PUSHING DAISIES.
An awesome show that won't likely survive the season :(
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but in the Scenario Analysis, I'm presuming NE-2 and ME-2 refer to those independent congressional districts? In which case, why isn't it NE-3?
Do the congressional districts ever vote differently from the rest of their states?
seracomp: French IT corporation of the future
From "The Programming Insider":
8:00 p.m. - Barack Obama Political Message
NBC: 6.7/11 (#1)
CBS: 6.1/10 (#2)
Fox: 5.0/ 8 (#3)
In total, that came to an impressive 17.8 rating/29 share in the 8 p.m. half-hour. Although ABC was hoping facing Barack Obama on three networks would benefit Pushing Daisies, the struggling drama could only muster a fourth-place 4.2/ 7 in the overnights.
OH ! SNAP !!
You know, if Obama killed Pushing Daisies, I might just have to switch my vote. That's unforgivable.
gallup prediction ??
Jim Martin is as decent a man as I have ever seen in the political game in Georgia.
Saxby Chambliss in concert with Karl Rove in 2002 did one of the most despicable things I have ever seen in American political history.
...and I am not a fan of hyperbole. He used fear and the dead of 9/11 to beat Max Clelland in 2002. Clelland did wonders at the VA as director and in the Senate only to be replaced by a person who voted against funding the VA and the GI Bill.
Oh, and Max Clelland was an American hero for his sacrifice in war and susequent courage to protest a war that was wrong.
Jim Martin deserves this seat. That is why the Voice of the Midwest endorses Jim Martin for United States Senate in the state of Georgia.
Jim represents hope. Saxby represents fear. It is time for some hope in America.
This is a tough race to handicap because of Barkley. The pollsters are having to make guesses as to how the voters will actually break—will Barkley supporters actually vote for him and if not how will they break?
Like some others then maybe I tend to think too logically but wouldn't the best thing to do then be poll it as a 3 way race and get the results for all the candidates?
I'm a hardcore Obama supporter, but I can't really get excited about a comedian winning in Minnesota. My fear is that it would trivialize the whole congress. In 2010 you could virtually guarantee that his face would be on all the RNC ads complaining about congress. I know he's a smart guy, but it's always tough to take someone like that serious.
If it's so good, why is it struggling?
the rasmussen/sabato calling-it -at-364-for-obama page is plastered with "invest in victory" Mccain/palin donation ads.
The irony is priceless. :¬>
I could see some of my fellow Georgians voting for Chambliss and declining to vote for the presidential slot. I work with two people who won't vote for Obama, but I'm not sure they'll vote for McCain. Their negative comments about McCain are gaining moment.
Chambliss is hitting hard with mailers. We received two yesterday. One from the campaign and another from an anti-tax group.
The ballot in GA has the party name by each candidate such as "Jim Martin, Democrat"
I am looking at a copy of my absentee ballot right now.
Great post, Nate Silver (D)-
no, it's not D for Douchebag.
Or is it?
My guess on today's Ras polls:
NC: O 49 M 46
IN: O 47 M 47
MT: O 44 M 41 P 5
KY: O 42 M 51
CNN Headlines:
Exxon Mobil Breaks Profit Record, earns $14.8B
American Express slashing 7,000 jobs in drastic cost cutting initiative.
Jesus Christ!(pardon me) 7,000 jobs!
Um, it's not really Rasmussen making that prediction, it's Larry Sabato.
He cross-posted his prediction at his website.
"I honestly think it might have worked if he didn't pick Palin."
I think even Palin may have worked if they hadn't turned her into Cheney. Negative works, but not 100% negative. You have to give people SOMETHING to vote for.
real joe - my gallup prediction is that gallup can't be bothered anymore and gives up polling.
Gallup: "What's the point in all this polling? What's the meaning of it? Why am I here?"
wv = 'giedsmen', otherwise known as petekent's woodsmen who are going to come out of the woods to vote for McGramps.
@sherwick:
So far we have Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby all showing a reverse-McCain surge.
Hmmmmmm....
Yes, very odd indeed. It's almost as if THERE IS NO SURGE!!!
Great post, Nate Silver (D).
I see that NC early voting is now at 52% of total vote in 2008.
One notable item: youth vote was running at roughly 11% in the beginning days. It has jumped to 12.6%
Achtung babies.
Do not engage the PumaKent troll.
Frau Braun Sarah is not Hillary - P.u.m.a. :I
What do people think about Mason-Dixon putting McCain behind only 4 in PA?
My take: M-D has a GOP house effect, IIRC. Even so, considering yesterdays polls of PA:
Marist: O+14
Morning Call: O+11
Quinnipiac: O+12
Franklin & Marshall: O+13
M-D seems like a major outlier.
Liam said...
*unanswered question from previous post*
I've had a nagging question about the simulations that has been driving me nuts. I hope someone can explain it for me - what exactly changes during these 10,000 simulations? Are a few variables (voter turnout, weather, I don't know) randomized? If so, it seems like since Nate's building the model he wouldn't have to actually run the simulations.
The election is made up of 51 individual state races, with each race having a win % for Obama/McCain, and a variance, and then there is the national % and the variance for this as well - so each simulation probably takes a random value for the national value and the state values, using relations between the national and state numbers.
that's my understanding... here it is from the faq
"How is this site different from other compilations of polls like Real Clear Politics? There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:
Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.
Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.
Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.
Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction."
deadpixel, I was banned from poll watcher too for no reason, guess Vcon gets tired of liberals
Cindy McCain looks absolutely miserable at the Defiance rally. It's cold, damp, dreary, filled with kids too young to vote and her crabby hubby has been hell to be around . . .
It made me smile that in Larry Sabato's update, the one that has a 364-174 win for Obama, it showed Bachman losing her house seat.
But its interesting to me that the Senate race in North Carolina is called for Hagan, and the Minnesota race is still lead by Coleman, who would have imagined that 20 years ago? (at least in terms of ideology!)
Its also interesting that the electoral map is so far against McCain. Sabato says that Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia are all still close. Give all of those states to McCain, and leave the rest of his map the same, and Obama still wins 273-265. McCain really does need to pull out an upset somewhere, maybe PA or CO, which seem the most likely still, but even then, doing that whilst holding onto all of those swing states, especially considering Virginia looks reasonably safe to me for Obama, is a tough ask.
Provided everyone who is planning on voting actually goes out and votes, Barack Obama is going to win this election.
So, don't forget to vote.
I'll complain as much as anyone about professional politicians and the need for term limits, but I'm afraid when non-traditional candidates win, I find it a little demeaning to the position. I'm a hypocrite about it.
I agree to a point: non-politicians playing at politics often prove why mostly we want professionals in the business. But my problem with Coleman is that he's just not very smart. Franken's clearly an irritating prick and may prove just as idiotic and irritating as Coleman, but at this point I'd take that chance. Unfortunately, I don't have a vote there (though I grew up in MN and have family that lives there).
Word verification: maxecret—security clearance needed to see Dick Cheney's shit.
BTW, why does Mc ALWAYS have to have his wife with him?????? It's just odd
"My fear is that it would trivialize the whole congress."
A comedian in Congress would trivialize the whole Congress?
With all due respect, the politicians have been doing a pretty good job of trivializing Congress on their own.
I am still looking at the Minnesota polling as unreliable. Minnesota polls are NEVER reliable. They are among some of the most polled voters in America over the past 20 years.
Momentum and history will likely work out a small victory for Franken. He is serious enough beyond that to earn a second term on his considerable depth.
Norm Coleman voted for the war, a very unpopular decision in a state seen among the bottom five in support of the war.
For these facts, the Voice of the Midwest is endorsing Al Franken for United States Senate in the state of Minnesota. We feel he will work best to restore the retail commitment Paul Wellstone made to the people of Minnesota and work well with a new President to restore hope in America.
I like how Pinkerton makes Obama culpable for Kerner, Walker, and Ryan.
Barack Obama = responsible for every bad thing ever
Isn't that the nature of the Anti-Christ? Just more evidence of Obama's true essence.
It's highly amusing when people invoke mythology into political reasoning. I'm personally waiting to see what Apollo thinks about Obama. It may sway my vote. You can't defy the Sun God or he'll strike you with the plague.
I agree with the newsinoh troll: it's shameful how close McCain and his wife are. Why can't he follow Douchebama's detached example?
Someone brought up the concern about Georgia voters (particularly AA) voting on downticket races. While I definitely think it's true that many will skip certain judges or such but the Senate race being on the same page as the Presidential and with Martin having a "D" by his name, they'll vote. I sat in a room atching hundreds of people vote and they were all taking long enough to at least make those two selections.
Also, I agree with the point Nate makes about people being more willing to vote McCain and Martin. I think this is especially true given voters' negative views of congress as well as a lot of dislike for Chambliss.
JTP was supposed to be at the rally and apparently no showed--hilarious!!!!!!!
This followed a bunch of Mc statements with "dick fingers" (Jon Stewart's words for Mc air quotes)
markedman said...
deadpixel, I was banned from poll watcher too for no reason, guess Vcon gets tired of liberals
I didn't even get warning about being banned and he doesn't reply to emails I mean I can understand a 24 hour ban but a 5 day ban takes me out of the election.
@newsinOH said...
"BTW, why does Mc ALWAYS have to have his wife with him?????? It's just odd"
Even after all of these years he needs to show off his trophy ;)
About election night :
Is someone planning to stream the HDNet coverage with Nate on election night? I would subscribe to HDNet just for this broadcast if I was in North America.. But I'm in Europe.. And I'm sure I am not alone craving to watch it and being unable to do so..
Blogger dwbh said...
@sherwick:
So far we have Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby all showing a reverse-McCain surge.
Hmmmmmm....
Yes, very odd indeed. It's almost as if THERE IS NO SURGE!!!
It's like we were saying yesterday: the trackers follow the state polls. ;)
Word verification: stiver
Just to mark out an idea of how tough McCain's task is, I switched all of Sabato's close states to Obama, and he racks up 406 electoral votes. (If you have a few minutes, its worth doing, you get a very blue map!)
On the state that might push Obama over the top, well that depends how decisive a victory he gets. If its a close run thing, well then it might be down to which states of the close ones gets called when. Given Hawaii closes last of all, if its really tight, it might well be Hawaii that puts its native son over 270. If its more decisive, well it might even be all over before CA needs calling.
diners is my WV, hmm maybe a collection of places you can dine?
mark in VA: Apollo thinks barack 'assclown' obama is a douche who's happy to dance in front of lesbians in a sad pander for votes.
NBC Mason-Dixon show no internals, no nothing, except for the topline number. Is that right? I try to find internals. they aren't there.
A comedian in Congress would trivialize the whole Congress?
With all due respect, the politicians have been doing a pretty good job of trivializing Congress on their own.
My thoughts also, hell with all the amateur comedians already there maybe it would help to have a professional one among them
In GA, I think Martin has a chance on Tuesday for exactly the reasons Nate stated. I think he has to win then though. If this goes to a runoff, I think a lot of the voters that are motivated by Obama will not show up to vote in Dec.
newsinOH said...
BTW, why does Mc ALWAYS have to have his wife with him?????? It's just odd
seeing that McCain cheated on his first wife to go out with her - she shouldn't let him too far out of her sights. Old habits are hard to break.
If you go out with someone who is cheating on their significant other to do so, don't be surprised if they cheat on you when you are their significant other. Common sense (:
One might say the Sabato's Ras Reports page is "festooned" with McCain ads - my favorite word from the debates, I kept yelling at the TV for McCain to just "SAY IT" in debate #3. As per usual, he disappointed . . .
Leaving to canvass soon.
Hi, Jonathan!
Jonathan! Now available in six packs!
Hugues-
I am in Switzerland and expect to watch some of the coverage on CNN International or from their website which at times has live feeds (would expect that on election night)...
One point . . .
You say "it's very difficult to imagine what a Chambliss-Obama voter looks like. It's pretty easy to imagine what a McCain-Martin voter looks like."
Recall that Martin defeated the onerous but nevertheless African American Vernon Jones in the primary run-off after initially finishing behind Jones in the overall primary.
It does seem conceivable to me, if irrational, that some of Jone's hard core supporters (all of whom are African-American) may be holding a grudge against Martin and the Georgia and National Democratic party that got strongly behind Martin.
This could explain the at first glance strange seeming discrepancy in undecided African American voters in the Senate race.
newsinoh said
'BTW, why does Mc ALWAYS have to have his wife with him?????? It's just odd'
-------------------
McCain's use of his surrogates has been awful. I guess he is worried that publicity showing his VP getting more attention and more excitement than him reflects badly, but again that shows why his VP pick was soooooooooooooooo bad. And it shows just how much of a wall flower, not really up to doing much, Cindy McCain is. (BTW do you really want a first lady called Cindy? eugh!)
I think that these are some of the reasons McCain's campaign has malfunctioned so badly.
Regarding when the race will be called, I think it is going to be a late night, even though it will be a landslide. The huge number of absentee ballots in all the battleground states will take time to report and the exit pollsters know that they will have missed a huge portion of the electorate due to that, so they won't be able to call it for a long time.
Obama could get to 370+ electoral votes, but the networks still might not call it until well after all the polls close (except HI and AK).
I will be astonished if this doesn't hold up:
2000 Gore wins popular vote by 0.5%
Gore wins Pennsylvania by 4.2%
2000 PA is 3.7% bluer than nation
2004 Bush wins popular vote by 2.5%
Kerry wins Pennsylvania by 2.5%
2004 PA is 5.0% bluer than nation
2008 Obama leadsnational polls 6.3%
Obama leads PA polls 9.5%
2008 PA is 3.2% bluer than nation
Pennsylvania is BLUER than rest of country by at least 3%.
If Mason-Dixon says Obama's up 4 or less, they very likely have a Republican-lean, as we've seen in virtually all of their polling.
Obama will win Pennsylvania.
Seltzer who has a notorious Democrat lean has Obama up only 1 point down from plus 4. This portends a shift in all battleground polls as the tightening of the race seen in the trackers now shows up in state polls.
Supertracker still pointing down, way down. Directional arrow favors McCain.
My canvassing partner in NC was from Georgia. She thought the narrative of Martin being new to the ticket is untrue. Martin has been active in Georgia for a long time and is regarded as an upstanding public servant.
I didn't get a warning either dead pixel and I'm positive I did nothing wrong either, I barely even posted, mostly just read. He never replied to my emails asking what happened, eventually I gave up. With all the bad polls for McCain, he probably just was taking it out on us...
:/
"Seltzer who has a notorious democrat lean..."
petekent who has a notorious republican mental disorder...
" in the Scenario Analysis, I'm presuming NE-2 and ME-2 refer to those independent congressional districts? In which case, why isn't it NE-3?"
NE-3 is an extremely conservative district in western Nebraska that is 100.00% certain to go McCain. NE-2 and ME-2 are the only districts that have any chance of voting differently from the rest of the state.
"Do the congressional districts ever vote differently from the rest of their states?"
It hasn't happened yet. And chances are pretty low it will happen this year.
Well sadly here in Minnesota I really can't be confident about Franken at this point. Coleman I think will benefit from his very phoney stunt of taking off his negetive ads (leaving the NRSC and interest groups to do his dirty work). Also the Minneapolis Star Tribune, concidered left leaning paper, endorsed Coleman. Franken has run a good campaign, and Coleman isn't that popular. You'd think that'd be enough in a Democratic year, but the doubts the GOP have raised about Franken will probably put Coleman barely over the edge.
If Franken wins it will probably be the 59th or 60th Senate seat for the Democrats. Right now I have 58 Democratic seats: gains in VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, NC, and OR. The most likely path to 60 would probably be MN and GA added.
The Party of Wall Street No More
"American Express slashing 7,000 jobs in drastic cost cutting initiative."
The financial services industry is going to hell in a hand basket. Millions of lives -- in NY, NJ. CA, CT and MA depend upon it. Those are Blue states. More's the pity.
The Republican Party can finally break free of the shackles of Wall Street and return to its populist, Main Street roots.
The Democrats can try and govern with the albatross of Wall Street around their necks. Keep those losers!
PeteKent said...
Seltzer who has a notorious Democrat lean has Obama up only 1 point down from plus 4. This portends a shift in all battleground polls as the tightening of the race seen in the trackers now shows up in state polls.
Supertracker still pointing down, way down. Directional arrow favors McCain.
IF YOU'RE GOING TO MAKE STUFF UP, DO IT ON A SITE WHERE FOLKS ARE LESS INFORMED!
Selzer's last poll of Indiana was September 15th and it was Obama +3. For every poll that you can show tightening, I can show widening. Either way, it's all with Obama leading. Indiana, Georgia, Missouri, etc. Luxuries for our camp anyway. McCain's odds of winning the election are much lower than Nate's 4.3% projection. More like 1.3%.
yanks145-
I am able to receive CNN Int, MSNBC, NBC and Fox News (argh), but I am sure it won't compare with the analysis/probabilies of victory given by Nate to Dan Rather on HDNet...
So if anyone in the US can help us by some kind of streaming, in Europe, a lot of us will be grateful..
Nate, any idea why Buckley (the Libertarian in GA) shows 6% in one poll and 1% in the other? I'm hoping for the 1% to prevent a runoff.
Political affiliates aside, I can't take another month of these Chambliss/Martin ads.
There's something about Obama's election luck that's starting to approach "Deal With The Devil" territory (maybe that's where Faux is getting it from).
Every election I've seen him run in, his opposition makes obvious exploitable mistakes (when it doesn't actually commit ritual suicide), or some circumstance just comes along to whisk him over the finish line, hardly breaking a sweat.
In the primary election for his Senate seat, he ran over the Daley Machine's candidate, without them even knowing what hit them. Meanwhile, the Republicans put up not one, but two wife abusers, one who kicked his helpmeet in the shins, the other who forced his unwilling partner to go to sex clubs. Then, having lit up the news with this nonsense for months, the Illinois GOP decides they need a black candidate, so they import Alan Keyes, whose evident need of psychiatric medication kind of offsets his race.
Then, this year, Hillary Clinton hires a bunch of amoral pollsters of the Dick Morris school to run her campaign, and starts doing victory laps in January, somehow failing to notice that she is being out-organized and out-fundraised, and apparently believing that she can roll to the nomination on the strength of her wholly factitious narrative about how being a professional wife has given her "experience". We all know how that worked out.
Now Obama finds himself as the Democratic candidate in a presidential election in which
(a) The incumbent Republican's approval ratings are below 25%;
(b) The worst economic crisis since 1929 hits the country with impeccable timing -- September;
(c) From a weak field, the GOP somehow succeeds in picking its weakest candidate -- an incompetent, buffoonish, angry blowhard, with no talent for management, no leadership, no understanding of retail-level politics, bereft of the intellectual chops required to even discuss the economy intelligently, and somehow possessed of the notion that he is personally attractive enough to overcome his evident inadequacies.
I don't believe in luck, and I don't believe in fate. I don't believe in God, and if I did I wouldn't believe that he would waste his time anointing favorites among humans. But if I were disposed to believe any of that stuff, the closest possible thing to evidence in support of such beliefs is Obama's unbelievable good fortune. He gives Karma a good name.
V-Word: "Casodin" -- Alan Keyes' medication?
If Obama loses Indiana by only one, he will win in a landslide.
Interesting the M-D shows Obama as close to McCain in AZ as Mc is to O in PA. Also note that Nate's win % for the two states are very similar...2% for Mc in PA and 3% for O in AZ. Although PA seems to have some rounding issue, cause it's showing 99% + 2%...
IMHO, "word verification" posts are 100X worse than "1st!" posts...
Why you ask? Because they are 100X more common and just as goddamn annoying.
Prediction:
Obama @ 353 (Kerry + CO, FL, IA, NC, NM, NV, OH, VA)
I believe Franken will have a tough time winning because he has been a nationally known, polarizing figure. His book, 'Dimbot is a big fat idiot' put him in the Repug's crosshairs...he becomes the one person (other than O) who they can rally against this election cycle.
I would be curious to find out what Coleman's funding situation has been like and how much has come from the RNCC. Anyone have this info?
carlo graziani,
While he's certainly had some good fortune during his campaign, much of it is attributable to him taking the campaign as seriously as a good attorney would take a case. Look at every angle, find the landmines, develop overall strategies to avoid the landmines and work, work, work.
His campaign has been different than the usual "popularity contests" run by most candidates. Even the traveling press corps notes that it's all work, not a whole lot of fun.
O takes this seriously, like a job. He has created much of his own luck by being well prepared.
And, for the record, I was not an early supporter . . .
No surprise The Economist endorses Obama (although they did surprise me in supporting the Iraq war)
" The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence. But we acknowledge it is a gamble. Given Mr Obama’s inexperience, the lack of clarity about some of his beliefs and the prospect of a stridently Democratic Congress, voting for him is a risk. Yet it is one America should take, given the steep road ahead.
...
In terms of painting a brighter future for America and the world, Mr Obama has produced the more compelling and detailed portrait. He has campaigned with more style, intelligence and discipline than his opponent. Whether he can fulfil his immense potential remains to be seen. But Mr Obama deserves the presidency."
http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12516666&source=features_box_main
A friend of mine has spent the last month scanning the blogs. Bad news. There is an increasing under current of distaste for Obama, which the public polls are now beginning to show, particularly over his tax plan. This election is not over by any means, and be sure it will be very, very close,providing Obama's fans GOTV. If his turnout is poor, expect a McCain win by 280+.
Did anyone here that McCain gave $500,000 dollars to Rashid Khalidi, the same guy that Obama worked with at University of Chicago and that the McCain camp is trying to tie Obama to since Khalidi is a member of the PLO?
And I quote, "...They noted that the International Republican Institute, which McCain has long chaired, donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to a Palestinian research organization in the 1990s that the same scholar, Rashid Khalidi, helped found."
Dohhhhhh! Seems McCain is frolicking with terrorists now. I wonder if the same people on this post that have been screaming about Obama associating with terrorists, will use the same anger towards McCain now?
NBC/Princeton Survey Research poll - South Carolina:
M: 53
O: 42
South Carolina
I'm not particularly concerned about either party "needing" a filibuster-proof margin. It's a damned good thing the Republicans didn't have one, eh? As I said in the past, if you can't govern without having total control, then you don't know what you're doing. Besides, this will provide very good reasons for working WITH the moderate Republicans in the Senate, marginalizing the wingnuts even further. Having 60 (or more) removes the incentive to remain centered and only increases the natural tendency of supermajority parties to become intoxicated on their own exhaust and be voted out all the sooner.
Assuming that the Dems win big next Tuesday, working across the aisle in a meaningful way will be their biggest challenge. There are a lot of people that will be looking for favors to be repaid and pushing their own agendas, not necessarily for the better of the country or the Dem party. Danger, Will Obamarobinson.
rettalme - What Sarah says to Todd on a good night.
Meanwhile: McCain's voters will come out of the Woods to vote for him.
Is that where they've been hiding?
Interesting bit from that SC poll...
"Also don't miss this nugget from Princeton Survey pollster Evans Witt: cellphone respondents tend to back Obama by a greater percentage. "Unlike many state polls during the 2008 campaign, this survey included interviews on both landline phones and on cellphones in South Carolina. Among the landline interviews, McCain holds a 50% to 42% margin. But among cellphone interviews, the candidates are tied: McCain 48% and Obama 49%. Those interviewed on cell phone are more likely to be young and young voters heavily favor Obama."
Thanks for the info re NE and ME, RWD.
pyabled: unable to remove bedclothes without assistance
Here is a thought for people that have time, poll access and excel - North Carolina has a very detailed spreadsheet on early voting at http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/Default.aspx?s=0. You can pull actual early vote internals by party ID, race, gender, and manner of voting. With a fairly limited number of assumptions (granted they are big ones) you can run scenarios on what the actual vote will be. The only assumptions would be:
1. Current vote split. Some of the polls have internals on how the "already voted" split; alternately, they have internals you could apply to the Dem, Rep, and Unaffiliated totals from the spreadsheet. This gives you a shot at current vote.
2. Then - guesses at 11/4 turnout and how it will split. Some of the polls also have "not yet voted" internals; their LV total versus interview total versus already voted might allow estimation of turnout. Or several scenarios and splits could be tried.
The hard one to call is that this is not zero sum - turnout will be up, and the early votes are depleting the total Dem vote to some degree, so the actual 11/4 vote will split less favorably than the early vote so far. How much and how the split goes are the question.
NC will exceed 2mm votes by 11/4, with a heavy Dem advantage. They'll have something like 35-37% RV turnout before election day - close to 2/3 of 2004 total vote.
Cavaet - do it after you're done calling or canvassing today. I'm off to work KC Mo.
word - "nonoz" - no, no z's until November 5th
" If his turnout is poor, expect a McCain win by 280+"
Please list the states you expect McCain to get to win 280 EVs. Only states where he's withing 6 points on the polling averages, please.
So, we've learned from our Republican friends in this thread that Republicans are actually main-street populists deep down and that many are naturalists that live in the woods. Awesome that we're playing bizarro world.
As for PA. If a +4 (2 point increase for M-D) is Obama's baseline, and his topline is +15 -- I'm thinking the 'put-it-all-on-PA' strategy will go down in history with the Duhaime special Rudy-G-in-Florda-for-the-win strategy.
Classic McCain:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/30/103713/27/126/646704
I guess now that Joe wants to run for Congress he can't afford to be connected to McCain's failed campaign.
Blogger Keith said...
A friend of mine has spent the last month scanning the blogs. Bad news. There is an increasing under current of distaste for Obama, which the public polls are now beginning to show, particularly over his tax plan. This election is not over by any means, and be sure it will be very, very close,providing Obama's fans GOTV. If his turnout is poor, expect a McCain win by 280+.
Hmmm. I've been scanning the blogs, too, and hadn't noticed any pronounced change.
Get real.
First: Nate on Olberman last night. Good content, a little stiff. Kind of like Nate is a Robot. Domo Arigoto, Senor Poncho, Domo, Domo. Again, great commentary, and I understand TV is not your gig, but a little head movement or facial expression might help. Or maybe smile when Olberman is amusing. Good stuff that showed a lot of work, though. And that should be what counts.
McCain's Mistakes: Tactics over Strategy. If you believe that a week is a lifetime in politics, then the run from becoming the defacto nominee just to the Repub Convention was time on an evolutionary scale. And given that time frame, you need strategy. Coherent strategy. You look at the last several national elections. Winners (Bush, Clinton) have strategy, losers (Gore, Kerry, Dole) used tactical adjustments without a strategic hub to hang it around.
All that said, the Lehman/AIG/Finance sector collapse might be the watershed moment of the campaign. It seemed to push McCain away from a coherent strategy and into the realm of tactical flailing.
On the rabbi's third hand, we have the inherent problems with McCain as a national candidate and the inherent advantages of Obama as a national candidate, particularly in the climate we are in. If everyone is fed up with status quo (and it seems like a lot of people are), then an old white male beltway insider, no matter how much of a MAHVrick he may be, cannot out "change" a young, half black, unrich, change agent from the party that hasn't held the executive branch in 8 years. And the Obama strategy of painting McCain as McSame-as-Bush has been pretty consistent messaging from about May. Takes a lot of work to maverick your way around that.
The quick summary: Even without Lehman, I dunno that McCain was going to win this thing, this year. Too republican, too old school, too cowboy.
Word Verification: upering - a competitor to the nuvaring.
"A man who started with no money and few supporters has out-thought, out-organised and outfought the two mightiest machines in American politics—the Clintons and the conservative right."
it's form the Economist endorsement posted by binarystar1984 and I dedicate it to Petekent.
McCain at a Rally on CNN - somewhere in Ohio. Attack, attack, attack... Get off my lawn... etc.
People behind him yawning, and twenty people clapping at all the right places.
Then, as the "excitement" builds, McCain leads up to an introduction... "Joe the Plumber is here with us today!" (Hooray! Clap, clap!)
"Where are you, Joe?"
(Hooray! Clap, clap!)
"I know he's here somewhere - Joe?"
(Hooray! Clap, clap!)
(Awkward pause - McCain and Cindy look around)
"I thought he was going to be here. Oh well, you're all Joe the Plumber!"
(Clap, mumble)
Let's give Joe a round of applause, anyway!
(Clap, mumble)
This just happened in Defiance, Ohio! It's almost sad!
video of this happening at http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/30/103713/27/126/646704
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAA!
" If his turnout is poor, expect a McCain win by 280+"
Please list the states you expect McCain to get to win 280 EVs. Only states where he's withing 6 points on the polling averages, please.
But the national trackers are tightening!
/sarcasm
National level tightening = Red getting redder, blue getting bluer.
Remember, McCain's campaign is trying to get to 250-260 first, then try to pull out the last 10 EVs.
Keith wrote:
"A friend of mine has spent the last month scanning the blogs. Bad news. There is an increasing under current of distaste for Obama..."
Who's your friend, petekent?
McCain yet again showing that he's just plain past his mental peak. I'm sorry if that's ageist, but it's true.
anbruch,
I can give you a list of web-sites if you send me your email address.
Mark my words, O is in trouble, as will the MSM who you would have noticed are starting to return to some kind of neutrality as the 4th gets nearer - even they are now slightly concerned.
It is not about getting real - say that to my face please.
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