The polling thread, regrettably, is going to be out fairly late tonight, so let me buy time by taking the long overdue step of posting a video of my interview on The Colbert Report, which occurred two weeks ago.
10.26.2008
538 on The Colbert Report
@ 2:31 PM
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Harvard Law Professor Cass R. Sunstein's endorses BHO, offering a detailed look at BHO's formative years as professor at University of Chicago Law School.
Worth reading.
LOL The PeteKent sock puppet now has his own in-depth blog:
Attack on Syria
Expect the polls to have a McCain SURGE, libs. ;)
Palin worship
Let us take a moment to honor our Goddess Palin I.
The Palin Scripture
Allow me to read you a segment of the Palin scripture:
Bristol 12:16-17
"If thou art with child, you shalt bear the child without delay, not mattering if it hurts your money, feelings, or life. If you refuse to bear your child, thou shalt invoke the wrath of the Goddess Palin."
That's the entire blog... figured I would save everyone the trouble LOL
honoredb said...
I wonder if we'll see an influx of non-troll McCain supporters. Only a week left to earn that t-shirt!
i'm here
McCain supporter
Arizona DailyStar:
A statewide poll taken by Tucson-based Democratic pollsters Carol and Pete Zimmerman two weeks out from the election suggests McCain's lead over Obama falls within the margin of error: 43.5 percent to 41.5 percent, with 10 percent of likely Arizona voters undecided.
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/printDS/264209
@dcm
downs baby's hold a lot of weight as infants.
Howard said...
photo ops with big crowds ...
Hey Obama is bad becasue hes popularand can draw huge crowds.
Unlike McPalin that were bragging about drawing crowds of 10,000 a month ago and were consistently overstating the numbers of people in the aforementioned crowds
WESLEY
IF I tell you where I left my hammer, would you pick it up & smash your thumb with it ?
guess I better lock the gun up...
lol, I mean it IS Dickie Morris
[gotta admit I look at Rove's map from time to time, but only for a laff at how his 'electoral majority' has evaporated already]
I <3 Nate Silver.
Can someone post the internals (if there are any) for the latest AZ poll? I can't find them.
@wes
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/printDS/264209
The Nashua Telegraph's Kevin Landrigan reported today that McCain campaign are reducing their ad buy on WMUR, the state's lone broadcast TV station:
Whatever spin the McCain campaign puts on it, the numbers spoke for themselves last week.
• Oct. 16: The McCain camp buys $111,540 in advertising to air from Oct. 17-Oct. 26.
• Oct. 21: The McCain camp amends the same buy to $110,190 for ads, but those were to run Oct. 17-Nov. 3.
jj,
Notice when McCain defends the Palin selection he always says she is the most popular governor. Wasn't being popular a bad thing to him in July/Aug with his celebrity ads against Obama?
DCM
Yeah, it was good for a larf. Which drawer did you say the hammer was in?
My favorite line of Dick's: "States that should have been definite for McCain but were on the verge of straying — Texas, Indiana, South Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky — returned to the McCain column."
Stunning analysis! I also love how Arkansas leans Obama. I feel like I'm looking through a window into another dimension.
I'm trying not to feed the troll, but just reminding everyone the the line about winning without a vote being cast is BS. Yes, people talked about Obama having won the primary before all the states (and the 7 non-state primaries) had voted. Yes, not all votes had been cast, but at that point, a lot of real votes had been cast.
Dick Morris is whipshit insane. His stuff makes no sense. Is he on some something or just fruit loops? Does he does this just to be different?
WESLEY
Rove's map & commentary is actually pretty much in line with the consensus.
guess he is going through the stages of grief faster than many other GOPers...
@ http://www.rove.com/election
my word is 'nopolit'
"The Obama Birth Certificate Lawsuit is heading to the US Supreme Court."
Micheal, the reason why it is going to the Supreme Court so quickly is because the defense is attacking something foundational to even bringing the suit at all. Because it's clearly a junk law suit I haven't followed it that closely, but I would imagine that the plaintiff's standing is at issue. There's definitely no way that substantial issues of fact have been tried so the case has been dismissed, either during summary judgment or because the plaintiff lacks standing. The plaintiff is now appealing.
Summary judgment is the stage where the court would decide that there are no genuine issues of material fact. Basically the evidence doesn't meet a minimum threshold whereby any reasonable jury could decide in the plaintiff's favor. Standing here would essentially be even if everything the plaintiff says is true they haven't been harmed in anyway. Basically that the plaintiff hasn't been damaged or had any legally protected rights violated.
When a man in California sued McCain, alleging the same thing that plaintiff alleges in this suit that McCain was born on a military base outside this country therefore is not natural born, the suit was dismissed because the man lacked standing. His rights were in no way violated nor is somehow damaged by McCain being able to run for president. Yes, I know, I can already see objections to this, but it is sound law nonetheless that I am not directly harmed by who is and is not allowed to run for office. The court held, quite properly, that the only one who could challenge McCain's status is Obama. I can't imagine that the supreme court would decide differently here. I know they are conservative but the majority of them aren't THAT partisan. Scalia may be many things but he is not irrational, and even he would see that the plaintiff's do not have standing here.
All of that about standing said, it also may very well be that standing wasn't challenged and that the plaintiff's 'evidence' is pure crap. It's also possible that some sort of tangential federal question was raised and that's why it is going to the supreme court. Bottom line is that there is no way that the merits of the actual suit are in dispute yet and thus this has no real ability to effect the outcome. You absolutely do not need to worry about this.
As I said 2 weeks ago, Rove and Morris pushed states into the Obama column for one reason:
so they could take them back as "proof" that McCain is coming back.
It was obvious then, it is being proven now.
UGH. Hardly internals. Interesting (perhaps unbelievable) tidbit: "Surprisingly, the poll also found that Obama was leading slightly among surveyed voters over 65 years of age, while McCain led among voters 45 and under. And Obama leads narrowly among independents."
I wonder if Rove isn't a bad place to get an accurate prediction of what might happen actually. I would imagine he has enough contacts still to get a look at internal polling.
And also interesting that even on Rove's map he has all but 1 of the toss ups with an Obama lead.
re: black radio stations
Why waste your money preaching to the choir. Is Obama going to gain or lose any voters by doing that?
-----------------------------------
Preaching to the choir???? If you can use black media and benefitting from it but you think you don't have to pay for it eventually it will come back on you. You already have many blacks calling in and saying is this (ignoring paying for black media but will use it) just an early showing of how he will do once he is in office? Ignoring blacks until election time. It wont matter now because most are caught up in the idea of having a black president, however if the problem is smooth out it will comeback to bite him. People comment how the enthusiasm is so high for blacks because he is black. Well most people are harder on their own and if this constiuency feels slighter and ignored in 2012 the enthusiasm will disappear. In Toledo we had a similar situation. We elected our first black mayor in 2004, however, once he got in office the community was ignored and guess what happened? The community ended up splitting their vote and now the first black mayor ir the former black mayor.
SFERGUS
I tended to agree with you several weeks ago, and certainly Rasmussen is doing a dance with his electoral map - by holding as many as possible in the tossup & DEM leaning categories to justify a horse race...
but their time is slipping away
too fast to make a case for a comeback IMHO
especially as early voting is underway in many states...
ugh - my word is 'mucesse'
For a little background, of the On the Road series type, I watched this yesterday:
http://online.wsj.com/video/the-legacy-of-the-mccain-name/14167AA7-92C8-49FD-96FF-6851A7F08276.html
Interesting stuff, and just sort of fleshes some things out.
Those Arizona polls are amazing.
And if the dems had had their convention in Phoenix instead of Denver... That would have been a maverick trick!
The dough boy's (Rove) map lazily mirrors RCP's mediocre map. *sigh* I'm glad this site exists. That is all.
I actually think RAS is doing the right thing. He uses a conservative model (note the minimal flucuation we've seen for 30 days). It has a lot of value I think.
tick tock, mccain!
OTF said...
jj,
Notice when McCain defends the Palin selection he always says she is the most popular governor. Wasn't being popular a bad thing to him in July/Aug with his celebrity ads against Obama?
Nice point. and the irony of them laughing at Paris Hilton style celebrity in those ads and then bringing up their own version of her onto the VP position is delicious...
Doesn't Rasmussen use Nate's regressions to fill in for unpolled states?
Both Arizona polls were by Democratic-affiliated pollsters so they are about as valuable as Zogby interactive numbers.
In 1972, McGovern's crowds were way bigger than Nixon's but Nixon's silent majority crushed McGovern in 49 states. BTW, I had dinner with McGovern back in the 1980's when I was in law school and he is a very nice man.
West Virginia would probably go blue if Obama held a couple of rallies here. Its a labor state and is reliably blue for just about everything but president. Not that I am asking Obama to come--even though I would be thrilled if WV went blue. His energies are probably best put where his coattails will help shift the senate.
I am born and raised WV, a future dead white male whose ancestors go back in this state a very long time. I am a proud hillbilly but who now has to work and live out of state. I am a flaming liberal who was last excited about a presidential race when Mcgovern ran. It has been long, long lonng time since politics were moving in a direction that moved me. As far as I am concerned this wasn't due to the South or poor rural states, they are too small to make a big difference, It was due to very rich political manipulators many of whom were raised and educated in places like Connecticut and Chicago. This does not make me castigate rich people or urban midwesterners. Listen we are all in this together. Even in hell that was the last two elections millions and millions of southerners, poor people and rural people voted democrat and millions of rich urban people from the coasts voted Republican. Everytime you purvey a stereotype it will cost you. Obama knows this very well. We should learn from his sense of politics.
Has this endorsement been mentioned before?
Obama is the better choice
Pretty significant in the current economic environment I'd say.
Guys and Gals.
Is there any way we can all put some pressure on Nate to maybe make a final week Super Tracker separate from the regular super trackers.
I'd really like to see which way the momentum is going in the final week but its almost impossible with the current tracker.
If anyone that frequents here has any influence on Nate and gang I really think that would be another great feature for the final week.
The Puerto Rican born commenter above can be President as PR is American territorial soil making him/her a natural born citizen.
The more interesting BO citizenship issue is not his birthplace but rather the fact that he became an Indonesian citizen as a child and there is no evidence he ever did the necessary procedures to get his US citizenship back after returning to the US. Indonesia did not allow dual citizenship back then. Also, Barack traveled on an Indonesian passport in 1981 or so.
MYSTIC
a conservative model is fine if that was how Scott R modeled his polling
but his hyper-partisan 'Evangelical Conservative' influenced model using IVR & small state samples with no cellphones & 2004 voter trends & unknown 'LV' screen is another matter IMHO
watch as he tries to refine it in the next week to appear not to have been applying such a biased 'house effect' after 11/4
still, his results are at least pretty consistent - as opposed to that MAGNETIC John Zogby's screwball #'s
or IBD-TIPP's results with 70/30 young voters for Mac
Georgia Senate Runoff?
I was reading that:
1) the GA senate race has a significant libertarian component
2) GA law stipulates that if no candidate exceeds 50%, a runoff must be held between the two top vote-getters
@buckeye
Your warning regarding a possible backlash agains Obama is somewhat reasonable. But the backlash, if it comes, probably won't be becuase he didn't advertize on those radio stations.
My comment is from my experience listening to a more liberal radio station. All pro-Obama, really helps to keep the listeners enthused and excited. Very helpful for Obama. But I've never heard an advertizement for him. It would be a waste to do that because everyone is already voting for him.
From the end of the FT endorsement that gerbie posted:
Rest assured that, should he win, Mr Obama is bound to disappoint. How could he not? He is expected to heal the country’s racial divisions, reverse the trend of rising inequality, improve middle-class living standards, cut almost everybody’s taxes, transform the image of the United States abroad, end the losses in Iraq, deal with the mess in Afghanistan and much more besides.
Succeeding in those endeavours would require more than uplifting oratory and presidential deportment even if the economy were growing rapidly, which it will not be.
The challenges facing the next president will be extraordinary. We hesitate to wish it on anyone, but we hope that Mr Obama gets the job.
The Berg lawsuit was thrown out on the grounds of lack of standing and was not addressed on the merits.
The Philly district judge ruled that individual voters have no standing to require a Presidential candidate to show proof he is eligible to be President -- begging the question of who would have standing to do so.
There is no mechanism currently in place for a candidate's constitutional qualifications (at least 35 years old and a natural born citizen -- meaning a citizen at the moment of birth either because born on American soil or because born abroad of two American parents) to be legally confirmed.
MrInsight,
just because the AZ pollster is partisan doesn't mean the poll is bad. Nate chrunches several partisan pollsters. He just rates them appropriately. The Interactive polls are crap because they use crappy methodology.
only citizenship Obama has is American
he has never obtained or received any other nationality
mrinsight22 is another nut
troy, I hear Obama commercials on the local right wing radio station.
The more interesting BO citizenship issue is not his birthplace but rather the fact that he became an Indonesian citizen as a child and there is no evidence he ever did the necessary procedures to get his US citizenship back after returning to the US. Indonesia did not allow dual citizenship back then.
That's total bullshit and it's nearly impossible to lose your U.S. citizenship anyway. A child can't do it no matter what.
Frankly, I think Obama has a stronger chance of picking up Arizona than West Virginia; but what do I know?
MrInsight22 said...
The more interesting BO citizenship issue is not his birthplace but rather the fact that he became an Indonesian citizen as a child and there is no evidence he ever did the necessary procedures to get his US citizenship back...
Even IF true, there is one piece of cast iron evidence. There is strong evidence he has ran for public office.You have to be a US citizen to do so, and I Believe you provide documentation to that effect. Regardless hey do a background check.
http://abcnews.go.com/pollingunit
52-45 M+1
last nights internals:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_102608.html
ABC Wash Post
O-52
M-45
Obama has com a bit off of his peak in this poll, but a 7 point lead is still great.
liberal,
That's great! I'm not hearing any McCain adds in WI. Personally, Obama probably has a better chance of picking up votes there than McCain would here.
Wait, Senator McCain, forget I said that. Please advertize on my radio station. please, please, please!
Breaking News: 25% of Americans do not have their orignal birth cerificates and therefore may have been born in Kenya!!! The Kenyan Government is going to issue a statement soon on possible forced repatriation of 25% of the US population next year!!!
@rupert
My mother (long since deceased) was from West by God, too. I have a lot of family there, still (Lumberport area). Actually, my mother was an Elkins, and yes, the same family. It's a beautiful state, in many places, and doesn't deserve the hate often heaped on it.
While my relatives there and I don't always see eye-to-eye, I'll give them this - they are intelligent, and really about the kindest and gentlest people I've ever come across. I've got every confidence that they'll make a good decision this time around.
mrinsight22 is another nut
Once again MrInsight22 offers absolutely no insight.
ABC tracking out; 52-45; was 53-44 yesterday - some combination of slight McCain uptick yesterday and/or strong Obama day dropping out.
Great interview. You are definitely a U of C alum. I love you website, check it constantly.
jj,
You don't have to be a citizen for all elected positions. Just ask Arnold.
Howard,
Yes it's really unfair and ugly of Obama to doing rallies, fundraising, running tv-ads etc. I heard rumors of Obama even trying to win the election. The nerve!
You don't have to be a citizen for all elected positions. Just ask Arnold.
Uh, yeah you do. Ask Arnold.
Great photo posted ealier by another poster:
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/bump.jpg
troy
Arnold is a naturalized president
he can't be president/vice president because of that
typo !
naturalized citizen
You mean citizen.
Way off topic here, but a friend posted a realtor's view of the Origins of the Mortgage Banking Crisis. If you are interested you can find it here http://activerain.com/blogs/jerryrolling . Yet another story of how the K Street Project generated private profits at public expense. The outright thuggery is astounding.
The case against divided government:
Recently some people seem to have suggested that maybe it would be better if America returmed divided government to Washington. The FT endorsment that gerbie posted suggests that the US has a better record when it has divided government. Historically I find that a very difficult statement to back up.
The indecision, power brokering and partisan blame game that exists during divided government is one of the reasons for gridlock that so paralyses American government. Take the battle over the League of Nations charter and the Treaty of Versailles after WW1. Republicans, lead famopusly by Henry Cabot Lodge, took umbrage with the Treaty, as much as anything else because it was negotiated by Woodrow Wilson. There was no attempt to reach reasoned consensus on either side (I am laying as much blame at the Democrats door at this point.)
On the opposite side we can find plenty of moments in US history when divided government would have made political achievements far more difficult. Take the New Deal, FDR would not have been able to take such swift decisive action without the aid of the Congress.
And you think a Congressional majority makes governing straightforward? Bill Clinton had 58 Senators to keep him company in the first two years of his Presidency, but failed to achieve a substantial legislative achievement, indeed had more success legislating, you could argue, once the Republicans took control of Congress.
So do not fret if Obama is elected alongside a substantial democratic majority. He is a good guy and won't overreach, but these are serious times that need solutions, not partisan fights and confusion.
Speaking of WV, does anyone know if Sen. Byrd has endorsed Obama yet?
Troy said...
jj,
You don't have to be a citizen for all elected positions. Just ask Arnold.
Arnold is a US citizen and is entitled to run for public office. Obama has the added qualification of being a natural Born US citizen and has been resident in the country for 14 years and over, and is therefore entitled to run for president. Arnold would not be able to under present rules.
Byrd was at an Obama campaign rally last week so I assume he's endorsed him!
gregm
I believe Byrd endorsed Obama during the primary season.
Pictures of the Denver Obama rally with 100k people can be found here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/26/obama-draws-100000-at-den_n_137951.html
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm is also a naturalized American
she can be Governor but she can't be president
because she was born in Canada she has Canadian citizenship
i don't know if she has denounce her Canadian citizenship or she is a duel citizen
#gregm
here you go:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/sen-robert-byrd.html
Again, I find it disturbing that McCain gains ANYTHING in these national polls. Everything we've seen in the last few days would lead one to expect him to drop below 40%. It seems that whenever "distractions" dominate the news cycles, McCain gains. It doesn't matter if it's somewhat negative either way - He seems to benefit.
My expectations and respect for the American voter, at least in these polls, is rock bottom at this point.
sherwick said...
Byrd was at an Obama campaign rally last week so I assume he's endorsed him!
he endorsed him in the primary
Josh said...
"The whole birth certificate thing is hilarious. I bet a LOT of people don't have their original birth certificate. I don't. I mean... What a ridiculous criteria. Does McCain have his original birth certificate? "
No. The original records from the Canal Zone are now in a public archive, and it's already been searched: the original records of McCain's birth have been lost or destroyed. Not surprising, but very ironic.
Financial Times endorses Obama
Bill Richardson is doing 7 stops across mostly northern Ohio this week. Obama will be in Canton tomorrow. I was half tempted to go to the Canton "show" since it's not that far away but figured it will be a full day event, getting through the traffic, walking the 3 miles to near the venue from the place they make me leave the car, then being only about a mile away from the platform anyway!
Still, it's good to see them locking down northern Ohio and pushing yet again for early voting.
In general, I have to apologize for my typos these days. I spit wine all over my keyboard while laughing at some political satire or other on Friday, and I have sticky keys.
Sadly, I can't afford a new one for some time to come, so this is just blanket apology.
From Senator Byrd's wiki page
'On May 19, 2008, Byrd released a statement endorsing Barack Obama (D-Illinois) for President of the United States. One week after the West Virginia Democratic Primary, in which Hillary Clinton defeated Obama by 41.32%,[51] Byrd said, "Barack Obama is a noble-hearted patriot and humble Christian, and he has my full faith and support."[52] In a written statement, Byrd called Obama "a shining young statesman, who possesses the personal temperament and courage necessary to extricate our country from this costly misadventure in Iraq."'
We already know that Al Qaeda is endorsing John McGrampa (R-AZ). Ouch.
Ashley Todd (R) is endorsing John McGrampa (R-AZ) too.
When I think of John McCain, I always have the following image in my mind:
OLD MAN SHOUTS AT CLOUD!
Where did it come from?
Thanks, all!
dr. matt said...
Ashley Todd (R) is endorsing John McGrampa (R-AZ) too.
LOL
Those pics of Denver are just crazy!
As are the pics of about any of his rallies, actually. Fantastic to see that kind of support.
Now if they all vote . . .
yawn. fake pete[r]kent as he's a HRC fan, he'd never want to endorse a theocrat, now...
Syria? please... = a botched border skirmish, 5 stories down on Reuters besides how does that help a weak Repub with a population SICK to death of war?
Obama birth cert? pff.. fail >>
nice try trollies
next...
M $0
P $150k
PALIN SPLURGE!!!
I'm a noob and I'm sure this is going to come across as 'concern trolling', but you guys are generally so level-headed and I can't help myself:
Please tell me why I shouldn't be worried about Obama standing up, exposed in a crowd of 100k people. I'm sure this is based on my own ignorance of the security procedures, but man.
Call me crazy, but any 'undecided' voters in Arizona are likely Obama supporters who don't want to say it to a pollster in fear of sounding ungrateful to McCain for his service to the state.
@dr. matt
I'd sure hope so. She's a paid employee of his (or was, wouldn't surprise me if she's lost her job now).
That was a great segment on Colbert. You really cracked him up several times. Sharp! I'm so glad that you will be continuing with this site; I am completely addicted (and I'm not so much interested in baseball, sadly).
"But at Northern Iowa University here, Obama was the recipient of tough criticism from McCain's warm-up act, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Graham accused Obama "of making a joke of our political system," by raising $600 million "from God knows who" to finance his campaign."
Hey, Lindsey, I'm one of those "God knows who"s!!! Yeah, look over here, it's us "little people" that you're talking about.
PA Morning Call
O 53
M 40 (-1)
Out early due to Phillies game. Go Phils!
Regarding the ABC New tracker, could just be statistical noise.
Otherwise, one would expect some tightening in the last week because, as Obama says, "that is what these things do..."
Incredibly, however, Rasmussen continues to be at +8 and in Gallup Obama actually went up +1 in the expanded LV model.
Looking more and more to me like and landslide with big seismic numbers. The surprises on election night may be places like Georgia...
kittles93 said...
PA Morning Call
O 53
M 40 (-1)
McCain SURGE !!
notyourblog said...
I'm a noob and I'm sure this is going to come across as 'concern trolling', but you guys are generally so level-headed and I can't help myself:
Please tell me why I shouldn't be worried about Obama standing up, exposed in a crowd of 100k people. I'm sure this is based on my own ignorance of the security procedures, but man.
no need to worry
Almost under 200 hours left to election day!
Since I'm working the polls, I'm probably going to miss them calling the election live!!!
I figure I've got to DVR several stations so I can watch them into the wee hours of the morning. Definitely MSNBC, possibly Faux (I just don't know that I have the stomach to watch it under even the best of circumstances). Any suggestions as to other stations that might provide interesting commentary??
notyourblog said....Please tell me why I shouldn't be worried about Obama standing up, exposed in a crowd of 100k people. I'm sure this is based on my own ignorance of the security procedures, but man.
It's always a concern, but if Obama
is not concerned then we trust that
the necessary security measures are
all in place. If Barack is elected
president, that concern of some
crazed lunatic that would like to
cause harm to him will always be
present. That concern exists for
every president unfortunately but
with Barack, the concern is
heighten for obvious reasons.
He can't be govern in a cocoon.
"There is no mechanism currently in place for a candidate's constitutional qualifications ... to be legally confirmed."
The issue of what electoral votes are valid is, constitutionally, up to the Joint Session of Congress to decide. The courts do not, as a matter of "separation of powers" doctrine, decide issues which are entrusted to another branch (yet one more reason why the Berg suit was hopeless).
In McCain's case, when the question of whether being born in the Canal Zone counts (there were some tricky technicalities: the Zone was never a "territory" as some sites inaccurately put it, but a "leasehold"; Panama theoretically retained "sovereignty" over it all the time, and children born to Panamanians living there did not become US citizens), the Senate passed a resolution that McCain is included in the definition of "natural born citizen". If the House joins in that resolution, or just receives the electoral votes for him without contest, that is conclusive.
Similarly in Obama's case. If the wingnuts really think there is an issue there, they have to raise it with their Congressmen (the procedural rule is that one Representative and one Senator is sufficient to raise an objection to the reception of electoral votes).
@sherwick!
i love that stat.
If Arizona is so close, why won't Obama campaign there? Is there some kind of bogus courtesy thing where candidates don't campaign in each other's home state?... as if Obama owes McCain even the slightest shred of courtesy at this point?
Obama to give 'closing argument' during Monday speech
A student of mine (for those of you that don't know, I am a psych prof, and I teach stats, which makes this site extra fun for me) just emailed me and asked about his mark on a test. He is a really bright guy, but always thinks that he has screwed up assignments. I had typed 'stop being such a concern troll' I realized before I sent the message that he would not know what that meant....
I may be reading fivethirtyeight.com a bit too much...
Obama to give 'closing argument' during Monday speech
Damn, now that makes me want to go to the Obama rally in Canton . . .
Numbers updated, Obama up to 96.7%
I can live with that ABC poll.
notyourblog said....Please tell me why I shouldn't be worried about Obama standing up, exposed in a crowd of 100k people. I'm sure this is based on my own ignorance of the security procedures, but man.
I've been to an obama rally... There were snipers for atleast a mile surrounding the area from rooftops to windows. It was awesome.
I can just imagine the irony of Obama's electoral victory being challenged, neither of George W Bush's having been challenged. Would be the most shameful day ever in the Republican Party.
Ooops! I meant to leave a nice little piece by Gallup looking at how campaigns typically tighten in the last couple of weeks-- and this one which really hasn't.
Which election does this one look most like? Interesting statistical exercise and discussion. To me it looks most like Clinton vs. Dole in 1996
Nate: crunch some numbers for us on this issue in your ever-expanding free time.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-TrialHeat-Trends-19362004.aspx
The 1 McCain landslide scenario disappearing is GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!1!!!.
1988..
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-TrialHeat-Trends-19362004.aspx#2
1976 has a ford surge...we haven't seen a hint of that yet.
i thought there were 2 mccain landslide possibilities?
For the masochists out there, here's the link to a Mc page containing videos submitted by "real JTP"s.
http://www.johnmccain.com/content/default.aspx?guid=8b14b7cf-bf1f-4c3f-8ee3-dc6b68912742
my word is oventist: someone who studies ovents??
interesting that Nate's stats show that even if Obama loses OH and Fl that he still wins the election 75% of the time...
I guess they are not following Nate's strategy.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/palin_plans_pennsylvania_tour.php
The evidence these GOP posters cite are incredible.
The polls maybe have shown tiny movement towards McCain today, but what weekend has that NOT happened? His average is actually higher this sunday than last sunday.
The race is not tightening. If McCain can be happy going down from 8.2 to 8 then by all means, but reality it setting in with the states. Obama has Kerry + IA,NM,CO and perhaps now even VA and NV.
Where does the map show McCain closing? He has closed up perhaps MO and WV.
I can't wait to see the Battle of PA next week!!! This is great news for John McCain.
I think that in a way this is quite like 1980 in reverse. I think that any movement that happens late might well be for Obama, but 1996 is a good shout, I remember the polls being fairly stable that year to.
I'd be fascinated if it was possible to draw any parallels between this election and the 1932 elction. (Though I believe its right that Polling hadn't started by then).
brian said...
The 1 McCain landslide scenario disappearing is GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!1!!!.
?????????
Oooof--Mc win percentage down to 3.3
That's the lowest yet, no?
mysticlaker:
The Ambinder article says:
Pennsylvania will see a lot of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin next week.
Given the size of the rallies, though, Pennsylvanians won't see a lot of Mc/P next week . . .
Those Gallup charts are fascinating. If I had to pick a best fit comparrison to this year I would go for 1940 actually. FDR opens out significant lead in September that Wilkie never really closed, and a late tick up in polling for Wilkie proved a false dawn as FDR won easily.
mygonses is my verification word- my fave so far.
I still think Obama takes Missouri, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Montana and even North Dakota. Indiana may be very close though.
O: 381 vs. M: 157
Big question for me is Georgia. I think it is closer than the data even show. Democracy Corps may have called it best.
Just opinions, but I get to have them.
Does Rasmussen include cell phone only? If not, then the closing speech could bring Georgia into play. If Georgia goes down, political tsunami. Eight on the Richter scale.
Nate - Love your work, but your prediction on jetpacks might be a bit pessimistic. You can put down a deposit now. Go to martinjetpack.com for look. It's a real think. I've flown it.
Petedownunder
Just wanted to compliment you on the "Seattle Pilots" line. Colbert doesn't crack up often and you managed it with that one. Good work!
theblahgirl, I'll fight you for Nate's hand in marriage. There's nothing sexier than an inordinate love for accurate polling and an appearance on the Colbert Report.
Nate, you looked like you had a halo. The globe behind your head seemed to give off a glow.
Nice. What happened at 4:36-4:39 though?
Most excellent interview. You - and everyone here - will appreciate:
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Vote for extreme buttheads like McCain and Palin to get asses stamped on their heads. Spread the word. Buttheads will roll!!!
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