The polling thread, regrettably, is going to be out fairly late tonight, so let me buy time by taking the long overdue step of posting a video of my interview on The Colbert Report, which occurred two weeks ago.
10.26.2008
538 on The Colbert Report
@ 2:31 PM
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331 comments
Nate:
Hey - take all the time you need.
You have earned it many times over.
:)
Very enjoyable interview. What was in the gift bag?
Don't care if I'm first :-P
(FL PUMA)
lol, that was awesome. Congrats man! Well deserved attention. :)
You were on Colbert????!! And you didn't tell your dear friend, Assmole? That's great news! For Johannes 'scheder' McCainius!
Well, at least we KNOW we won't need to be hitting refresh every 2 minutes for the next six hours.
Sexy purple tie!
I cannot wait to get my freak on on Nov. 4th Obama mama style! hahaha
Massachusetts makes me sick. EVERY ONE of their governor, senators, and represantatives are ALL COMMUNIST commiecrats!! They are a festering liberal filth hole supported by the liberal hippies. We will destroy them all in the Palin revolution.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!! MCCAIN WILL STEAL THE ELECTION!!
Someone email Kathryn Lopez over at the Corner (corner.nationalreview.com) that she put up the wrong IBD Tipp numbers, and also explain to her that poll is garbage to begin with.
Hey, Nate, I wanted to ask you this when the interview happened, but I forgot. How much is a "Colbert Bump" worth in terms of page requests?
Considering we've had 2 more weeks of speculation I would simply like to know,
would you advise investment in Jetpacks.
Also, how does one go about investing in jetpacks at this point in time? What corporations are currently building jetpacks?
Also, I hope people came to fivethirtyeight.com and not 538.com.
Nate - Awsome.
I have been lurking for ages and only posting occasionally. Take your time, I will just keep coming back for the comments in the mean time.
We should all test our mettle against your model and take a final EC tally right now. I got 376.
Yes, we need to see an analysis of your appearances and new unique hits to 538. Let's see the numbers!!!!
That interview is how I learned of 538:) Anyone see the news that U.S. helicopters just attack a village in Syria? I knew the military industrial complex wouldn't go down without trying to provoke a war. I guess since Russia didn't take the bait they're going to try and pick a fight with Syria.
http://www.johnmccain.com/calendar/
Let's see. tomorrow pa and nc for the dynamic duo.
10/31 - ohio...
Latest polling just confirms the Obama landslide:
Rasmussen 10/23-25/08 3000 LV 44 52 - - - - +8D
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 10/23-25/08 1100 LV 40 51 2 2 2 3 +11D
Diageo/Hotline 10/23-25/08 878 LV 42 50 - - - 6 +8D
Gallup 10/23-25/08 2346 LV 43 52 - - 1 5 +9D
Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby 10/22-25/08 1203 LV 44 49 - - - 6 +5D
ABC/Post 10/21-24/08 1321 LV 44 53 - - 2 2 +9D
IBD/TIPP 10/20-24/08 989 LV 42 46 - - - 12 +4D
Newsweek 10/22-23/08 882 LV 41 53 - - 1 5 +12D
Democracy Corps (D) 10/21-23/08 1000 LV 43 52 1 2 - 1 +9D
It's just getting into ridiculous territory now. Every major indicator has Obama winning by a wide margin, and many pollsters may even be underestimating the rout.
McCain meanwhile has conceded Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado saying "we're not going to win" those states. Amazing really.
Who'd have thunk it back when all our trolls were crowing about what a wonderful "game changer" Sarah Palin was! Well they were 1/2 right about that!
Is this sarcasm I suddenly sense from PeteKent?
Breaking News:
GOP Pennsylvania State party sent out an email to Jewish communities warning that Obama's policies could lead to a 2nd holocaust.
The republicans get sicker and sicker. Are they trying to drive away any decent members of the party away? MSNBC is reporting on it now.
After that appearance it became clear that Nate is just a shill for "Big Chorizo" and possibly even the whole Mexican food industry. The possible biases that this might suggest for his polling analysis are as yet unclear...
PeteKent, put away all of the sharp objects, stay away from fires, prepare a padded room, 11/4 is going to be difficult for you!
Obama's never ending crowds.
http://hosted.ap.org/photos/7/7d98e359-5b31-4eb4-99de-6caef64b14bc-big.jpg
It's sock puppet petekent.
It's an annoying, 15 year old in a basement somewhere.
buckeye said...
Breaking News:
GOP Pennsylvania State party sent out an email to Jewish communities warning that Obama's policies could lead to a 2nd holocaust.
this will backfire
they are destroying our party !!
Don't you guys get it? McCain will STEAL the election. Haven't you seen the articles about the machines switching votes? Hahahahaa!!!!
Hmmm. Nate's going to be late putting out his results. Must be cooking the results...
Just kididng.
please start a blog Pete Kent, i would read it for sure.
I watched this live, Nate, but didn't notice at the time how close you came to cracking Colbert up a couple times. Keep up the good work!
Nice Colbert appearance, it's tough to do that show. Though I'm a Phils fan, impressed by your insights on the Rays. Hope your wrong. If Obama wins by more than 315, I'll be sending you a bottle of champagne.
You are going to make being a stastician cool....
Nate, while you're justifiably celebrating your celebrity, why not take a moment to correct your spelling of Yost's first name in your previous post?
One of the things I loved about McCain on MTP was him saying how much enthusiasm there was for his campaign from the crowds. Well 1000 enthusiastic people is fair enough I guess, but its the 3,000 maybe who didn't have the enthusiasm to get off there couches, or were more enthusiastic to join the other 100,000 at Obama's rallies. Poor deluded man. Often happens to losing candidates though, so focussed on the goal that they don't see that it has slipped away.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/26/01013/199/326/642420
GOP email to Jewish community in Pennsylvania.
GOP disavows inflammatory e-mail sent to Jewish voters
Bachmann's problems after she pissed off us libs! Nice work kids!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/the_scorecard/2008/10/bachmann_remarks_come_at_cost.html
Seriously, Nate-baby, you did a better job on TV than this clown. Did I say clown? Um, I meant the Lincoln/Roosevelt/Kennedy/Martin Luther King of our times... My God, if he hadn't been so upset about his grandma, think how well he would have danced, too. Ok, I'm off to play some b-ball now.
I made a blog
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
Obama holds a rally with 45,000 in Albuquerque, NM last night. Maybe the biggest crowd in New Mexico history -- for anything.
Worse for McCain the daily trackers show just ZERO momentum for him heading into the last week:
Rasmussen: O +8 unchanged
Gallup: LV (traditional): O +5, McCain gain: 2%
Gallup: LV (expanded): Obama +9, Obama gain: +1%
R2000/DailyKOS: Obama +11% unchanged
Diego Hotline: Obama +8, Obama gain: +1%
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/pennsylvania-republicans-send-false-anti-obama-e-mail/
Story on Jewish Email hoax of Obama bringing another Holocaust,
New Wisconsin Rassmussen poll has Obama up +7 and a St Cloud Minnesota poll has Obama up + 5. Those are to close to my liking. Those have a hard time passing the smell test.
Thousands already lined up for 2nd CO Obama rally
Lovely new flyer on my door in FL today... the gist is that Obama would welcome illegals, and interfere with parents' rights to stop their 13 year olds from having abortions.
Scraping the bottom of the barrel, I see. I should just put a post it note on my door stating I already voted - please go away. Maybe they'll leave me alone.
FL PUMA.
Seattle Pilots! LOL! They made the playoffs this year, as the Milwaukee Brewers. They were really mavericky back in Seattle. Now, not so much.
Research 2000 West Virginia
M: 49
O: 43
This one stays red, I think.
slicknickshady said...
New Wisconsin Rassmussen poll has Obama up +7 and a St Cloud Minnesota poll has Obama up + 5. Those are to close to my liking. Those have a hard time passing the smell test.
Wisconsin is gone
I just decided to blow off the Obama rally here in Denver. I'd like to see him, but crowd was truly immense and the streets were blocked off. I didn't favor a 3 hour wait just to get in. People were waiting in line more than 6 hours in advance. It reminds me of trying to get rock tickets and having to wait overnight at the Ticketron in ye olden days of yore!
http://petekent.blogspot.com/
I mean Obama drew 20,000 in Nate Silvers hometown of East Lansing, MI that I went to last time Obama was in Michigan. I can only Imagine what he would get in Denver.
Anchorage Daily News endorses Obama (heh):
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/567867.html
"Research 2000 West Virginia
M: 49
O: 43
This one stays red, I think."
West Virginia, Tennesee, and Kentucky are all part of Appalachia -- that home of dumb-ass rednecks who'd rather keep the "n-----s down" than have a job.
They have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 20th century, cause they still are stuck back in the 19th along with the ghosts of Lester Maddox and Confederate general Nathan Bedford Forest.
It sounds like I'm turning into a concern troll. lol.
I have to realize that Obama is not going to win all states by double digit poll figures like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Virgina, and Nevada. Some of those may end up 53-46 Obama and I'll just have to live with it. :)
PRESIDENT BARRACK OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fox is now reporting that today's Denver rally is the largest political domestic rally in history surpassing Obama's St Louis number of last week.
What will you libs do on 11/5 when you wake up to a President-elect McCain and a VP-elect Palin?
You did awesome!
real joe, what is your feel on Minnesota?
Nate,
I saw that interview on Colbert. Very well done! I'm very glad to see that you get acknowledged for the good work you do. Much deserved :-)
weeeeeeeew.
Seattle Pilots was just pure genius!
both wisconsin and MN are gone. these polls are not within the range of the polls that just came out this week. Rass has always polled these states as much closer for MCcain than they really are.
So did we just attack Syria or what?
love Stephen and loved your interview when it aired, Been loving 538 ever since!
Developing Story I just heard on the local news on the radio... This could get big:
The Obama Birth Certificate Lawsuit is heading to the US Supreme Court.
----
This is the first time I heard any media outlet bring mention of this on the radio or TV.
If Obama survives one week of this news, he'll be our next President..
Reports are we just attacked Syria. Yes. That is good planning George! Completely fuck it up, even worse, right before you leave.
@jaime
It's hard to tell. CNN never put it up on the web, MSNBC took it down as breaking news (but still has a story up). NYT and WaPo have nothing on it.
This GOP ad is no surprise, and could well work. The only place I think we'll see a 'Bradley Effect' is in the Florida Jewish vote. Lots of old Jewish retirees, most life-long Democrats, will get in the booth and start panicking about Rev. Wright and Hamas and the name 'Hussein'.
There's a character in the recent Philip Roth book Exit Ghost who talks about her parents doing the same thing, voting Bush in 2004 against all their intellectual instincts, out of fear for Israel.
Still, that's what, 500 000 people? And they won't all do it. Winning the Hispanic vote is probably more important.
Nate, have you ever heard of cricket... enough stats to keep you going after the election!
"Fox is now reporting that today's Denver rally is the largest political domestic rally in history surpassing Obama's St Louis number of last week."
Well, it's not as big as the 1 million who went to the Broncos super-bowl parade, but it's still an immense crowd. There was no way I was going to get anywhere near close enough to Obama to see anything, so I blew it off.
Too bad really, but I'm not a fan of standing hours in line in monster crowds and then having a similar problem getting out again.
Michael--I assume you are the Michael who posted here last week about how the polls are lying to us because they are oversampling reps? Or maybe you are another Michael. Either way this lawsuit thing is pure bs. The SC will kick it for lack of standing and for lack of substance. I am wondering if you listen to Hannity on the radio and that is where you got this info?
Pure pure desperation.
michael said...
Developing Story I just heard on the local news on the radio... This could get big:
The Obama Birth Certificate Lawsuit is heading to the US Supreme Court.
This could get big in fact. Amongst freepers and fools.
I just replayed the interview. I'm just wondering if Nate has updated the map since then. It doesn't look like it has changed much in the past 2 weeks.
Obama birth certificate lawsuit is a sick joke. Here is his birth certificate:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/06/obama-birth.html
There was an announcement in a HA paper of his birth (do they do that for people born in Kenya?)
He does not seem to have the original, but I don't have my original either and Ithink the HA legal folks can keep track about this stuff.
Much ado about nothing. As a lawyer, I can promise Obama would have produced it if he had to, but the guy does not have standing to bring the suit.
99.9% chance the Supreme Court quickly runs from this and does not take the case ( they can take any case, or not, at their discretion )
1) The US did not attack Syria. There was a raid on the Iraq/Syria border that Syria claims went over to their side. Big difference.
2) The bogus birth certificate claim was laughed out of Philly Fed Court on Friday. The idiot behind this says he will appeal to the Supreme Court, which will quickly throw it in the trash.
sorry that should read oversampling 'dems'
The incursion into Syria is not an invasion, it is a raid. And the Syrian press is reporting but there is no confirmation. The only site carrying it is Debka which is crazy right wing on the middle east.
The PA thing was an email, not a n ad. And it is so so over the top it will repulse any jew who receives it. No one likes the overplaying of the holocaust card.
Breaking News: Hamaii admits that they announce Kenyan births in their papers!!!!!! OMG! OMG!
After this interview many of my friends were gushing about how cute the 538 guy is. Nate Silver: unexpected sex symbol of 2008. :)
McCain guarantees victory. lol.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14951.html
Poor old dude is losing it.
Hawaii*
kittles93 said...
real joe, what is your feel on Minnesota?
MN is out of play
Obama will win it easy
I am simply posting what I heard on the radio. The guy said that Berg has tapes of his grandmother saying he was born in Kenya. He also cites the birth announcement was 9 days after the birth in Hawaii.
8/4/61 - birth
8/13-61 - announcement
I do believe George Bush will try to antagonize Syria and Iran this week. Try to get some support behind McCain.
I think people are just fed up at this point.
That birth certificate guy could have saved himself some time by just going here:
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
Loved the Chorizo line.
sherwick said...
Breaking News: Hamaii admits that they announce Kenyan births in their papers!!!!!! OMG! OMG!
LOL
VERY FUNNY
micahel, which radio station?
michael said...
I am simply posting what I heard on the radio.
wow
what show ?
nuts on radio
lol
michael said...
I am simply posting what I heard on the radio
From the radio to the keyboard, was there a discerning brain involved as well Michael?
600 WSOM... Do not ask why I was listening to a classical music station.
One of the things I'll be happiest about after the election is over is no longer having to wade through the drivel posted by the Youngstown Young Republicans.
here's where bush declares martial law to keep his presidency.
Rachel -
Nate may not know cricket but he knows baseball, and I don't think even cricket can compete with baseball on the stats front. In fact most of the more recent additions to cricket stats - I mean beyond the usual bowling and batting averages you'd find in Wisden - are imitating baseball.
Did you know cricket was a - possibly the - national sport in the USA before the Civil War? What a let off - imagine how good they'd be! It's bad enough with the f*cking Aussies...
birth issue is 100% BS
some crazy people are behind this BS
Davud Schuster is doing a great job today of debunking today's McCain talking point (that Obama is already writing his inaugural address - that's based on already corrected NYTimes error) - nice to see someone confronting the lies.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ianwYiLFrnJxFSAgjT1DqydYeinQD942BK5G0
U.S. attcked a village ten miles inside Syria.
(FL PUMA)
NATE SILVER = my idol
lol at 4:55 tho
There's also this, where they explain in great detail their own research:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2008/jun/27/obamas-birth-certificate-part-ii/
BUCKEYE
the 100,000+ crowds for Obama are probably record size for the 'modern era' of staged political rallies
but apparently very large crowds were not that uncommon way back in the day.
both Kennedy & Nixon had rallies in 1960 with that many - or more
crowd counting was not as well-documented then, but I read that one Nixon rally in Philly [I think] had as many as 500,000 on a weekday @ noon ? also supposedly a crowd in Boston of 250,000 for Nixon in 1960...
times have changed, but I find that hard to believe myself - what were they thinking ?
but apparently many were just there at lunchtime...
This has a great ironic tone on the birth certificate laugh-fest:
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
I do believe George Bush will try to antagonize Syria and Iran this week. Try to get some support behind McCain.
I really, really, don't think that helps John McCain....
@Michael
Go away. The birth certificate case is by a nutbag. If the Obamas were planning on lying about their son's birth (and planting a story in the Honolulu newspaper 9 days "late"), so that one day he could run for President, do you think they'd have given him the middle name of Hussein?
The Supreme Court will deny cert. if the case is appealed directly to them. Ordinarily it first has to work its way through the Court of Appeals. It will languish there and then die. It's bullshit. Get over it.
All of the conspiracies the freeptards are excisted about? They're bullshit too.
Fox is now reporting that today's Denver rally is the largest political domestic rally in history surpassing Obama's St Louis number of last week."
Well, it's not as big as the 1 million who went to the Broncos super-bowl parade, but it's still an immense crowd. There was no way I was going to get anywhere near close enough to Obama to see anything, so I blew it off.
-----------------------------
The Broncos in Politics? I did say Political Rally.
(AP)
Palin: Obama acts as if he's already won election
I bet they screwed up and didn't know they were over the border.
For those who are wondering if blacks are turning out to vote this election. No need to wonder.
Last weekend I attended a festival is Los Angeles, CA in a predominately African American community (varied socioeconmic profile) and they are fired up and read to go!
Blacks are showing up for Obama and yes, from my observation some are voting for him because he's black. So what? There are also some who are voting because he's democrat and some because of his policies.
I'm voting for him because of his his sincerity to lead for the people, his vision for this nation, his econonmic, foreign, education and health care policies. Oh yeah and because he's black.
Independent Voter
--I do believe George Bush will try to antagonize Syria and Iran this week. Try to get some support behind McCain.--
The actual rumor du jour is that the US and Iran are going to announce a resumption of diplomatic ties (likely at less than embassy level) but that Bush is waiting until after the election so as not to hurt McCain. Apparently in the waning days of the administration Condi Rice has totally won out over Cheney.
she's going crazy
I agree with real joe...
Wisconsin is gone. It's a blue state, in fact the tricker treaters today are wearing McCain/Palin masks to scare us.
I'm in Southeastern WI and conservative talk radio here has jumped on the "super majority" band wagon regarding the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Interesting slogan for the Republicans, 'we can't afford to have the Democrats control both branches of congress as well as the White House."
It's a message, but a message that will ultimately translate to a check marks for McCain/Palin is highly unlikely.
GO OBAMA!
you see Michael this is why we have such a hard time finding anything you post credible. You try to appear respectable and logical but you are peddling pure bottom of barrel right wing conspiracy bs. The 'just reporting what I heard' line is ludicrous. So I could report I heard aliens landed in NM, does that make me credible? I don't think so. This is why we have something called judgement.
While we're into media, here's a link to videos of Nate's appearances on Olbermann's "Countdown".
BREAKING NEWS:
my daughter's birth 9/1, newspaper announcement 9/8, my birth 6/23 my birth certificate issued 4/7 BUT FIVE YEARS LATER.
I have concluded that both me and my daughter were not born in Canada but in Kenya...
Oh and neither I nor my daughter, nor my wife can produce original birth certificates! Her birth was in 1967 and she did not get a birth certificate until 2003! I have to go question my wife...
dcm in fl
Maybe they counted crowds in those day about as accurately as they counted votes in some places?
Police: Crowd for Obama Denver rally tops 100000
All our trrops have GPS that tell them where they are very precisely, to the inch if radio correction is available. If they were in Syria they sure as shit knew they were in Syria.
My mom lost my original birth certificate, does that mean she does not love me or she wants to make sure I cannot enter politics?
Davud Schuster is doing a great job today of debunking today's McCain talking point (that Obama is already writing his inaugural address - that's based on already corrected NYTimes error) - nice to see someone confronting the lies.
-----------------------------------
Obama should use it as an example of how McCain jumps to conclusion over anything without checking it out and this is why we ended up in Iraq. As for the crowd size at a political rally I am repeating fox news. email them if you have discrepencies with their numbers.
The NRSC Pulls Out Of Colorado
Mark Blumenthal examines:
The story here is less likely a "tightening" race than a regression to Zogby's mean after an outlier result in Obama's favor Wednesday night.
Dave, there's a check box - it is all phoenetic. You can check CANADA, KENYA, or CAMBODIA, CALIFORNIA, CANARY ISLANDS, OTHER 'KAH/CAH' SOUNDING PLACE.
If you don't pick the right one, well... you see what happens.
as i have posted before CO is out of play
Wow, if the repubs are givcing up CO in the Senate it pretty much assures 57 dems in the Seante, and maybe 59.
The only thing I don't get about the whole birth certificate thing is how come, if there is a constitutional qualification to be President, does a candidate not have to prove they are constitutionally qualified to be President when they file papers with the FEC?
It's true that they have GPS, and GPS can be very accurate (not quite to the inch under combat circumstances--you need differential GPS and have to average over a few minutes for that--but close enough). But GPS is only as good as the data you give to your equipment. At least one friendly fire incident in Afghanistan was traced to incorrectly relayed GPS info.
@fred it means you were born in Kenya, and you are probably a secret muslim terrorist baby killer. Those are the facts...
One of the great achievements of the Obama campaign is to ignore most of the McCain nonsense.
Someone pointed out that the way attacks hurt is if they reach the local newscasts. The best way to make sure that all but the most repeated/damaging ones are ignored is to not make a big deal out of them.
The public has a filter - if they hear something only once or twice, or in campaign ads late in the campaign, most of it doesn't really penetrate that much. Notice how Joe Biden didn't rush out this weak to clarify his "test" comments? Most Dem campaigns would have panicked. Obama didn't. They'll take the small hit in order not to take the chance of elevating something to a major issue.
Baltimore Sun Endorses Obama for President
Black radio has a lot to do with the way African-Americans are turning out. However, Barack better soothe some hurt feelings with Black Radio. CNN' wrote a scathing email about Dems and Repubs ignoring black radio as far as advertising dollars (especially Barack and the Dems). Barack is on Tom Joyner, Michael Baisden and Roland Martin's radio show nearly every week, he is in Ebony and Jet nearly every issue but yet they aren't receiving any dollars from the campaign compared to their white counterparts. Barack may get in this year because we are a week away, but if the perception continues that he will use black media but don't support them they may turn against him.
The guy said that Berg has tapes of his grandmother saying he was born in Kenya.
Unfortunately, by getting these comments he accidentally erased Michelle's "whitey" comment, as it was the same tape.
CNN's Roland Martin wrote the letter. I left his name out.
@markymark
I'm quite sure they do. That doesn't mean every right wing nut job has to believe that the FEC did adequate research, though.
To be honest, I know that earlier in the campaign there were some on the left that questioned McCain's having been born in the Canal Zone. Also complete hogwash.
steve-oh-
We can be sure they weren't off by 5 or 10 miles on their location. The report is also that two helicopters landed and 8 of our guys went after the bad guys, killing 7 and wounding 4 (?). Sure sounds like a well planned op where they knew exactly where they were and what they were doing.
Maybe we neded to do that, but weird to do it ten day from the election unless we REALLY had to do it now, or unless Bush is trying to create an international crisis.
markymark--there is the faulty logic of the rabid right wingers. They assume no one has checked this but them. You see they have special insight that no one--let alone the people that examined Obama's paper work when he filed to be a presidential candidate--caught this. They missed it! Because no one but the freepers see the truth.
Full Listings of Newspaper Endorsements - Obama Leads 160 - 59
jack-be-nimble said...
The guy said that Berg has tapes of his grandmother saying he was born in Kenya.
Unfortunately, by getting these comments he accidentally erased Michelle's "whitey" comment, as it was the same tape.
HAHAHAHAHAHA
MARKY
my guess on why FAUX news is so obsessed with the size of the Obama rallies is that they are back to shilling the GOPer 'Obama = world's biggest celebrity' attack
of course that is silly season, but what else do they got ?
wait - they got St. Sarah & Elisabeth Hasselbeck stumpin' in FL today
Failin is on her 'Rogue Tour'
kinda like Madonna's 'Vogue Tour' ???
I can't believe (I but I can) George Bush is trying to star a war to help John McCain.
--Maybe we neded to do that, but weird to do it ten day from the election unless we REALLY had to do it now, or unless Bush is trying to create an international crisis.--
Or maybe this is just standard every day military action with absolutely no relation to the election. I don't find it weird at all.
Nate looks like the French surrealist poet Robert Desnos.
http://www.desnos.udenap.org/images/desnos_robert_centrale_1924.jpg
so can someone explain to me who this Elisabeth Hassebeack is? And why she matters at all?
@ real joe...
erased the tape! ROFL!
Elisabeth Hasselbeck campaigns for Palin
Obama speech in Denver on CPSAN 6:30 p.m. eastern
@Lat,
it matters because they found someone who is more clueless than Palin.
Buckeye -
Why does Obama have any responsibility to buy ads on black radio stations? When he comes on the show he's getting publicity out of it, but the station is also getting something out of it - association with his successful 'brand', and more importantly big audiences. So big in fact that they'll presumably get to charge more to other advertisers to advertise in that slot.
So there's already a quid pro quo here. I don't see why he's under any obligation to directly enrich radio stations.
@lat
She was on the Survivor show, and is now one of the hosts on The View. Her husband is an ESPN football analyst, having recently retired from the NFL, after a less than stellar career. She is the sister-in-law of Seahawks' quarterback Matt Hasselback.
sorry guys I just don't know who she is and why she is famous? I know she is the view but that makes her an important figure?
Troy--very funny.
re: black radio stations
Why waste your money preaching to the choir. Is Obama going to gain or lose any voters by doing that?
thanks aunt karen. still seems like she is a no one. but that is just me...
AUNT
and you were very 'kind' in describing Elisabeth HassledHack by not mentioning that she is a complete clueless dolt that does not have the ability to think for herself as she ignorantly & stridently spouts all the GOPer talking points on live TV 5 days a week
then gets repeatedly 'beatch' slapped by her co-hosts, including Barbara Walters
then repeat the next day ad nauseum
IMHO
still seems like she is a no one. but that is just me...
Wrong. A lot of people have that opinion...
Shuster is saying the Obama campaign is stingy for not giving more money to the democrats running for senate seats.
Oh, she is nobody. But Sarah gave her a ring-a-ding-ding (ding-a-ling!) and asked her to go. I wonder who is picking up the tab for her travel?
And I agree dcm in fl, I was just trying to be fair and balanced, lol.
thank you guys! it never made any sense to me that I kept hearing her name associated to politics because whatever I heard coming out of her mouth seemed totally superficiality and ditto headish.
I was born in Puerto Rico, though lived in FL all my life (I know). I won't be able to run for president =(.
AUNT
you are to be commended for at least trying...
but EH & Sarah & John have worked my last good nerve
no longer able to give any of them the benefit of the doubt since their rhetoric is in the vile & despicable category now
Hrm, I don't know about giving money down-ballot, but even here, they asked me to go out and work for my representative (Mike Capuano - this is Joe Kennedy's old district). Well, I mean the guy is running unopposed, so not much point, at least that's how I figure it.
And isn't it the DNC that makes these investments, not the Presidential campaign? I actually thought that wasn't allowed.
Obama's campaign will have long cottails due to the turnout effort, so Sentate dems need to shut the fuck up.
Pollster just posted that Zimmerman & Associates found Arizona at 44 McCain, 42 Obmama. If Mac loses his own state, how long until he retires?
PeteKent said...
I made a blog
Oh boy - I'll make it my home page.
Sarah Palin just slammed "tax credits" as being "where the government takes your money to spend on its priorities. Has anyone told her about McCain's tax credit for health care spending?
OMG the campaign is a joke and Sarah Palin is an id-jit.
new on POLLSTER
as anticipated:
AZ McCain 44, Obama 42 M+2
(Zimmerman & Assoc.)
AZ is a tossup !!!
Mac has Obama right where he wants him !!!
I agree Fred. I suspect the MSM is trying to come up with some negative press for Obama since McCain is losing or has Obama right where he wants him.
The reason Chambliss(GA) might lose and Dole(Nc) for Senate is b/c big Dem registration and turnout. Obama doesn't have to give them money directly his GOTV will help them even in states he may lose.
@dcm
I guess that's just another benefit of living in MA. At most, I see two McCain ads a day, and they are of the mildest type he has available. As I posted towards the end of the last thread, that hate stuff just won't fly here. So, I don't have listen to it 24/7, which makes me calmer, I'm sure.
Just saw MTP today. McCain didn't help himself and got smug with Brokaw when backed in the corner over his taxation inconsistencies, poor polling and the Bimbo.
BTW Does anyone else think that Chuck Todd looks like Murray from Flight of the Conchords?
dcm in fl said...
new on POLLSTER
as anticipated:
AZ McCain 44, Obama 42 M+2
(Zimmerman & Assoc.)
AZ is a tossup !!!
Mac has Obama right where he wants him !!!
HOT DAMN !
I don't believe AZ is a toss-up. I'd need to see way more polls.
Obama has done, and will do, ZERO campaigning in AZ. And yet, it will probably still go blue. That should tell you something..
Real Joe said...
Elisabeth Hasselbeck campaigns for Palin
No change there then...
sherwick said...
Obama has done, and will do, ZERO campaigning in AZ. And yet, it will probably still go blue. That should tell you something..
Not good news for McCain
we need more AZ polls
2 polls last two days from AZ:
1. M 48, O 44
2. M 44, O 40
3. M 44, O 42
Don't expect to see the last to AZ polls on RCP anytime soon showing McCain just +4 and +2. RCP is still trying to keep old polls in the average to keep GA out of toss up at a 5.2 avg.
sorry, 3 polls lol
on AZ poll #'s, from the article in the AZ Daily Star: 'Red, but how long?'
@ http://www.azstarnet.com/metro/264209
"John McCain is still predicted to win here, but with his lead over Barack Obama diminishing greatly in new polling, some say the GOP's hold on the state has officially ended — the party only holds a 4-percentage-point registration edge over Democrats.
"It's not just here, look at the entire intermountain West," said Arizona State University political pollster Bruce Merrill. "New Mexico, Nevada, the whole West has moved significantly from strong red to purple."
A statewide poll taken by Tucson-based Democratic pollsters Carol and Pete Zimmerman two weeks out from the election suggests McCain's lead over Obama falls within the margin of error: 43.5 percent to 41.5 percent, with 10 percent of likely Arizona voters undecided.
Merrill is conducting a similar poll this weekend and predicts that the economic downturn will have narrowed McCain's advantage from the 8-percentage-point lead he enjoyed in a previous poll."
================================
so we should watch for another AZ poll to come out this week...
BUT this will be fodder for the cable talking heads about how poorly Mac is doing in his own 'home' state
I'm thinking if Palin has a Janet Jackson moment she could put a couple states back into play. What the heck, it couldn't hurt.
Hahah, liberal_defender! I'd love the FCC to fine her, lol.
@Cugel
West Virginia, Tennesee, and Kentucky are all part of Appalachia -- that home of dumb-ass rednecks who'd rather keep the "n-----s down" than have a job.
Yahhhhhh .... millions of Mountaineers, Kentuckians and Tennesseeans will will vote for Obama. Not enough to win... but millions.
If there's anything bad about this site at all, it's that folks don't call Cugel and his ilk on their self-righteous hate. It's not racism, exactly. But it's no better than racism.
In short, Cugel: Go Fuck Yourself.
Wow. Az. Wow. Maybe dick morris isn't crazy.
http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/
Well, ARK is still crazy (I think).
PERCEPTION IS NOT NECESSARILY REALITY ... DON'T BELIEVE THE POLLS ...
Obama supporters act as if the polls are a true reflection of what's going to happen on November 4th. Obama has consistently tried to win each of his elections prior to a single vote being cast, by eliminating his opponenets on technicalities, or having the DNC dump Hillary, or by giving the false impression that he already won, before the election has even taken place. When you don't have an actual record to run on ... and all you can do is point out problems, and blame others, as Obama has, you have to rely on gimmicks that have nothing to do with your actual ability to lead ... like accusations of racism ad nauseam ... like early voting ...busing and indoctrinating homeless people on the way to the polls ... photo ops with big crowds ... spending 4 to 1 on advertising ... having the media in the tank ... having Hollywood in the tank, having Acorn in the tank ... and, having 98% of all black voters in the tank. But, all of these things are nothing more than a fabricated perception. They have nothing to do with a person's experience, or ability to lead. They just reveal a candidate who will say, or do anything to get elected. That's why the Obamabots are so worried. That's why Obama is telling his disciples not to get over confident. That's why the Obama campaign tries real hard to make it look like Obama has already won ... just like they did in the run against Hillary in the primaries. I happen to believe there are legions of people who are going to vote for McCain on November 4th ... unlike the 'in your face' Obama supporters, November 4th is when the McCain supporters will express themselves. A vote for Obama is a vote for voter fraud, corrupt media, and a road to socialism. Keep America safe and strong, elect McCain/Palin on November 4th.
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
I'm thinking if Palin has a Janet Jackson moment she could put a couple states back into play. What the heck, it couldn't hurt.
LOL
Nate, will you marry me? :)
HAHA howard. Yes, you are right. There are probably 45 million people voting for M/P. Unfortunately, there are probably 65 million people who are going to vote for obama.
LIBERAL
I would bet that instead of a 'Janet' wardrobe malfunction,
the GOPers fav GILF might do a 'Britney' commando photo incident coming off her campaign plane or bus & flashing her private parts...
such a tease that would be as Sarah is goin' 'ROGUE' sp she might as well go all-in & maybe even the full monty ???
lol - my bad... but with all those drooling male groupies fawning over her well I can only hope they get what they want...
If McCain loses AZ it's because of major anti-immigration sentiment in the state's GOP, and their lingering anger at McCain.
It's a big factor there, and the more it looks like McCain will lose, the more they may want to vent their anger towards him.
I posted a few days ago that the worst thing about Palin is she is a firewall for the Obama campaign against virtually every objection the GOP seems to have for Obama. Now they have a celebrity shilling for her as well, and somehow seeming more politcally literate.
One other thing about that appearance in Florida was the small Palin baby being held, at least at the beginning (couldn't watch more than about 30 seconds of it) by one of the smaller kids (not Bristol). Probably meant to look sweet but to me as a parent one seemed very opportunistic (how many times have you seen either Obama child on the stump) but also do you really want an 8[?] year old holding a heavy looking downs baby?
mysticlaker said...
Wow. Az. Wow. Maybe dick morris isn't crazy.
he's not crazy
Ladies and Gentlemen.... PeteKent has been reincarnated as....
..."HOWARD".
Supposedly there are newspapers that suppressed earlier close polls in AZ for fear of pissing off the old crotchety Senator.
I believe the AZ polls, he is not loved there.
Hey Howard:
Obama has a pretty expansive platform. Apparently you haven't read it. Might try that.
If you look at Rasmussen polls (they have polled AZ the most of anyone this year). AZ was single digits most of the time until the convention. Things could easily have reverted to pre convention levels. Also, if McCain is pollin as bad with hispanics/latinos as he is in the other SW states it is possible to be low single digits.
10/06 M+15
9/9 M+31
7/30 M+6
7/17 M+5
6/16 M+4
5/14 M+9
4/7 M+5
Hey guys, the Syria attack will make McCain SURGE!!!!
http://petekent.blogspot.com/2008/10/attack-on-syria.html
theblahgirl said...
Nate, will you marry me? :)
ROFL
Nate- I hadn't seen this before, and enjoyed the hell out of it. I don't think I've ever seen Colbert have to bite down on a laugh that many times during an interview, or be so interested in learning from a guest. Kudos! (But damn, you're so YOUNG :)
The whole birth certificate thing is hilarious. I bet a LOT of people don't have their original birth certificate. I don't. I mean... What a ridiculous criteria. Does McCain have his original birth certificate?
It's just a desperate attempt by some lunatics.
If McCain loses Arizona it'll be because (a) Barack Obama is a seriously great candidate, (b) McCain is losing his marbles, (c) Palin is a hate-spewing, divisive numbskull. That, and the economy is in the shitter, our foreign policy is ridiculous, and people don't have healthcare.
Oh, and McCain and Palin don't mind lying. Over and over again.
I love it. Let's talk about Obama's birth certificate all week. Praise Jesus.
MARKY
you mentioned that the baby looked heavy
I was wondering about that too...
the girl holding the baby seated on stage [was it the middle one, Willow ?] could hardly hold the BIG infant.
it looked to me like the child was gonna drop the child from her lap...
BUT the infant was HUGE & dressed in clothes & awake this time [rather than bundled & sleeping]
how did that kid get so BIG so FAST ???
he looked like mini-me/Vern IMHO
maybe it was Vern Troyer...
he would like him some of that GILF - make another porn tape ?
If McCain loses AZ it's because they know him quite well.
Howard,
You can't indict Obama for being popular, or for taking advantage of his popularity... this is sort of a democracy. I agree that his campaign staff is very good at "playing the game," whether it's exposing fraudulent petitions, microtargeting in the primaries, or gaming the electoral college. But literally all that shows is that he hires competent people and extracts their best from them.
accusations of racism ad nauseam
In response to nauseating racism.
unlike the 'in your face' Obama supporters
That turned out to be a hoax.
I am dumber for having read Dick Morris's Electoral map. Thanks to whoever posted that link.
I wonder if we'll see an influx of non-troll McCain supporters. Only a week left to earn that t-shirt!
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