I'm not sure that the McCain campaign has a winning campaign hand to play on the economy. But consider this. Between the three debates thus far, the Obama-Biden ticket has used the phrase "middle class" 21 times**. McCain-Palin have used it twice. This according to the New York Times.Date Obama/Biden McCain/PalinThe National Review guys have been on this for a while, but this would be a different election (okay, maybe not that different, but a little different) if McCain were proposing to cut taxes for the middle class by more than Barack Obama. Come to think of it actually, is it too late? I can certainly think of less likely last-minute stunts than some sort of massive, Filene's Basement tax cut.
September 26th 3 0
October 2nd (VP) 12 2
October 7th 6 0
==========================================
Total 21 2
p.s. The other term conspicuously absent from last night's debate? "Maverick".
** sometimes "middle-class" -- with a dash -- in the transcript.
10.08.2008
21-2
@ 10:06 PM
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John McCain: Dishonor Before Death
A big change in policy right now would come across as desperate, especially if it was one that seemed to mimic an existing Obama policy stance.
Sarah Palin wore out the term "Maverick"(tm), so much so that it's become a joke. Tina Fey gets her biggest laughs with it:
Q: "And how would you accomplish that through being a Maverick?"
A: "We would sit down together and examine the problem like a couple of Mavericks and ask ourselves 'What would a Maverick do?' and then we'd do that."
Like "John McCain was a POW" America becomes numb with it's overuse.
'My friends' comes across as much more human than Maverick. Mavericks play basketball.
And remember, my friends, that all of my friends are good people, and my friends, we all need help, my friends.
I was surprised that Ringo didn't show up mid sentence.
republican crowds chanting criminal, traitor and terrorist when obama's name is mentioned at rallies now according to fox
cnn analyst last night on bradley effect "if obama is 5 points ahead on election day and doesn't win its going to get very dramatic"
mcain needs to look at himself and ask if this is how he wants to try to win, he's opening a can of worms by focusing on ayers, palin saying "he sees america differently to you and I" cindy mccain saying he's betraying US troops
McCain hardly says the word Maverick any more. He prefers the subtler "Reformer" who takes on his own party!
2nd Debate: Live Analysis
Checkout my piece on Youth Voter Registration. For every 100 registered voters aged 18-24, the democrats accrue a 9 vote advantage.
Obama 349, McCain 189
Oct 8 Polling Update
Nate,
How does a person find out how many state polls are going to be released the next day? In this age of technology, the best we can do is just be blindly surprised by 90% of them as to their arrival date/time?
Trust me, I know you have nothing to do with this little conundrum, but I'm curious if you can help solve it.
You know, now that I think of it, the fact that your suggestion was for McCain to cut taxes for the middle class drives home the point that Republicans have basically had two answers for the economy: deregulation and tax cuts. That's pretty much it. I think that is one of the main reasons why McCain looks so helpless during this economic crisis. Republicans don't want the government to get involved in the economy, so when the economy starts to tank they have a very limited range of policy prescriptions that fit in with their political philosophy. The conservatives apparently flipped out last night over McCain's new, poorly described plan to buy up bad consumer mortgages.
What Senator Obama just DOESN'T UNDERSTAND is that I am not only a Maverick, but a Middle-Class* Maverick! -John McCain
*John McCain considers "middle class" to be in the range of $10 million to $50 million in net worth. Because that is the mid-range level of his gated community on the famous golf course.
mc9cain:
I would love to know that too. I have googled my eyeballs out trying to find a site the aggregated scheduled polls.
McCain does need some new, exciting idea to present to have some hope of not being completely trounced. Negative isn't working. But his campaign is not filled with good idea people. Or they would have had at least one by now.
It's all over but the counting - - well and the demonizing and dividing, and the hate and the smears, and the threats...
HEY SIDNEY!! In 2000 Bushy and his thugs spread around that your beautiful little girl who you so kindly adopted, was in-fact a your illegitimate black child, and the right wingnuts where oh so happy to beleive it. So you pay them back by hiring them for your campaign and smearing a good man and his family? His 2 little girls need to go to school -0 - do you care that you are inspiring some right wing freakazoids to target his family? You have no honor Sydney, and I personally wish you and your slimy whore ( that's what I call a woman who sleeps with a married man, while his wife is in a hospital bed recovering from a car accident) of a spouse would just fade back into the dark recesses from which you came.
http://www.thetimesnews.com/news/county_18304___article.html/voters_registered.html
603,000 newly registered voters in North Carolina. Easley says new Dems outnumber Pubs 6:1. Article above says 4:1 482,000-121,000 = 361,000 net gain for Dems if the article's 4:1 is more accurate. If 70% vote 361,000 X .7 = 252,700 net gain for Dems. Bush won by 436,000 in 2004. There have always been more Dems than Pubs in NC. It will be very close this time.
One point that McCain made in the debate was that he has gone against and angered both his party and the Democrats. Just what we need,a president no one in Washington likes or wants to work with.
Personally, I don't mind not hearing about the overinclusive "middle class" in every sentence (at least not in every McCain sentence). For politicians -- of both parties -- "middle class" has come to mean a group bounded by Jed Clampett (poor mountaineer) and Jed Clampett (Beverly hillbilly.) Tell me what you're going to do for the poor; they're the ones who really need the help.
So bummed they didn't say maverick..I love that drinking game, lol.
McCain and Co. will continue to play out this negative assault on Obama's character until rally crowds start chanting 'Death to Obama!'. Then, and only then, will McCain back off...not because he thinks he went too far. But because he finally reached his goal.
Well said, my friends.
Eric, if Obama takes NC he´ll win the election.
I think the McCain campaign should announce Job Creationism. For millions of hard workin' good folks they could train them to speak Palinese real good and go all over the world and Russia too to teach others that down home talkin' that means so much.
And another job creation is to teach the hard workin' folks how to be mavericky to solve the energy problem and keep good energy for you and me so that it helps our economy and such. also.
Middle Class v My Friends.
@Dario...same thing can be said about NV, CO, OH, FL, VA, IN, OH
Indiana, Bush won by 500,000 and there are 750,000 newly registered voters. Most are Dems. Even if this turnout falls a little short in North Carolina and Indiana, other states it'll likely be enough.
Ohio has 666,000 newly registered voters. Bush beat Kerry by 119,000 in 2004. most of the new voters are Dems. I think Obama wins Ohio unless McCain campaign suppresses vote there. I understand they're currently doing everything in their power to take people off of the books there and unregister them. They're not dumb. They know they're likely to lose there unless they employ guerrila tactics. Legal or not, they probably don't care. 666,000 newly registered voters, at least 2:1 Dems. 444,000-222,000=222,000 X 70% turnout = 155,400 net gain for Dems. This would be plenty and it's probably low-ball.
Nate, we live in interesting times. Did you see the latest news that the government -- the one that's current run by the most conservative Republicans in 80 years -- wants to take ownership in a bunch of banks so they can force them to make loans?
Now THAT is the Community Reinvestment Act on steroids. Give the Asshole-in-Chief some credit. When he decides he wants to be a socialist, he doesn't fuck around.
McCain has proposed every stunt he can think of:
"I'm suspending my campaign to deal with the emergency!"
"I'm flying back to Washington to get the bailout accomplished! Cause that's the Mavericky think to do! And I'm a Maverick who gets things done, by reaching across the aisle to get things done!"
"Whoops that didn't work! The bailout tanked! But, it's the Democrats fault! Nancy Pelosi said mean things about the Republicans! SO, I'm going to cancel the debate!"
"Whoops! No I'm not! I'm showing up! But, I won't like it! I'm mad as a wet hen and won't even look at Obama! That'll show him!"
"Well I guess my campaign suspension is over now, even though there's no agreement yet!"
"Now I want to throw wild charges out at Obama! 'Ayers!' You hear that Obama? The election is about Bill Ayers!"
"Whoops! Can't talk about that during the debate! It won't look right while voters are all concerned about the economy!"
"I wish my campaign hadn't leaked that bit about wanting to 'get past the economy'!"
"I know! use the debate to throw out a wild idea about having the government buy up every mortgage where the market declined, and then turn around and give the homeowner a new mortgage at the CURRENT value of their home! At taxpayer's expense!
Let's try and see Obama try and get to the left of that one! They people want socialism, I'll give them socialism! That Mavericky enough for you Dan Brokaw? Like I'd ever appoint you Treasury Secretary anyway!"
"Ooops! That didn't work! The base is mad at me now for lurching wildly to the left! Homeowners who actually PAID their mortgages aren't thrilled either! I guess this idea's going to tank quicker than Bush's call to put a man on Mars!"
"Well I guess it's back to 'Obama's DANGEROUS! Dangerous I tell you! Bill Ayers! Yes the election is about Ayers!"
What's a Maverick to do in these uncertain times, but spin just like a weather-vane.
Where did you guys get the numbers for newly registered voters in those states?
My friends is a little more audience friendly than when McCain said "my fellow prisoners" today.
I'm curious as to why WV hasn't been polled for nearly three weeks. Surely Obama's surge has put it into play?
Dear Sara,
We all see this country differently than you.
Sincerely,
America
DarÃo said...
Eric, if Obama takes NC he´ll win the election.
Yes, my point is in the reddest of swing states, Obama has closed through new voter registration to a virtual tie all things being equal to 2004. The more purple states he's likely crossed over the threshold, where all things being equal, he's ahead. This discounts the fact that right now he's a better candidate than Kerry was even without the new voters.
In states like Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada he's crossed over with newly registered voters even more than North Carolina or Indiana. Virginia and Florida are very close as well. Harder to tell for a few reasons.
I'd rank the potential tipping points for Obama like this:
Nevada (tie to Obama)
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Indiana
Missouri
I think he has 264 locked down and any one of the above will get him to 269.
Cugel,
ROFLMAO! And the one stunt preceding all of those? Ms. Half Baked Alaska.
The best part about Obama winning 90% of the time is seeing that states that Obama wins in excess of 90% of the time actually make the tipping point list...
Nate should create a companion list that indicates which states put Obama over 375...call it the "landslide point" list. :)
WOuld be cool to see sucha list populated with North Dakota...West Virginia...South Carolina...Arkansas...Louisiana...Mississippi...Texas (hehe), Alaska (omg) and Arizona (rotfl).
jakam: Nate condoning our wildest landslide fantasies is like Usain Bolt celebrating during the last 10M of his races. Let's just have a little bit of uncertainty on election night so I can go wild if it is a landslide.
At this point I suspect any major policy initiative McCain proposed at the 11th hour would probably be too easy to spin as another "erratic" move, especially if it was as irresponsible as a major tax cut on top of the $300 billion Bush tax cut he wants to keep in place. He really has thrown too many Hail Mary passes.
my friends -- started to sound like rudy
my friends noun verb.
what no maverick. maybe it is because a maverick is a loner. not a leader. a team of mavericks is an oxymoron.
lets see if republicans didnt vote for the bailout bacause of what nancy said. mildly partisian. then mccain will be in deep trouble ever working with dems because of his negative campaign.
good luck
eric,
CO flips before NV
VA flips before OH
VA may flip before CO (per Nate), but I doubt it.
Otherwise you are right on
Wesley said...
Where did you guys get the numbers for newly registered voters in those states?
Numbers i've heard over the last few days. i'll look for a link, i've seen a page with all of them together before.
Here's some relevant links:
http://www.thetimesnews.com/news/county_18304___article.html/voters_registered.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004
Ohio was mentioned by a volunteer earlier today. He posted a link 666,000 new voters. Can't find it though
Indiana was posted by a volunteer yesterday. I had heard 500,000+ newly registered as of a month ago. He suggested about 750,000. I haven't seen it on the net though.
Nate, don't help him
I think McCain's Hail Mary debt forgiveness/refinancing proposal is going to backfire. Not only is it alienating the conservative base, but it's also pissing off those voters who did not overextend themselves by buying more house than they could afford and who avoided the low-rate ARMs because they knew they could blow up at some point. The voters who had to pay inflated prices for their homes because of all the easy credit out there encouraging buyers to drive up prices.
McCain is telling those homeowners -- the ones who did everything they were supposed to do -- that they were chumps to have been fiscally responsible.
McCain's death throes are awe-inspiring. Check out the billboard some Democrats set up at Heartless and Brainless. I also discuss the effects of Sarah Palin's frenzied crowds. I also present video proof that McCain did shake Obama's hand!
I'm finally beginning to decode the rhetoric.
McCain's slip today in referring to "my fellow prisoners" was a colossal mindfuck. He was inadvertently telling everyone that we're all trapped in a web of financial deceit.
But truly the last group he's worried about is the middle class. It's his billionaires friends for whom the jig is really up. Many of them will be lucky to survive with 10 cents on the dollar of their "wealth."
And the last thing he wants is for Obama to come in and make sure they never become robber barons again.
I'm not sure what he means by it, but McCain did say "middle-income", referring to Americans or a tax cut, three times in yesterday's debate.
Well, let's see if I can actually post for once....
David Brooks states very well why McCain's party is out of ideas:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvxQwNqZSOQ
(If this posts, just a nod to you that I love the site.)
Any idea why 375 is considered the threshold for a landslide? A 2:1 margin is 359, so rounding up to 360 seems like a more logical choice.
That debt forgiveness is a total and cynical flip-flop by McCain
Back in the primary days when McCain said no dept relief, it was actually one thing I agreed with McCain on and disagreed with Hillary/Obama
Hope you're right that it backfires
middle-class is such an idiosyncratic americanism. I mean should it be synonymous with "middle-income" (ht anthony) or are we talking about something else. Whatever it is I doubt we really mean "class"
You can have a lot of money and very little class... Just look at McCain!
Tina Fey killed any remaining impact that "maverick" had left when she transformed it into an adjective and made it the punch-line to a drinking game joke.
I expect Darrell Hammond to do something similar with "my friends" on Saturday (or even tomorrow - the new Thursday night show starts this week, I think).
Also, I am happy to report that my visit to the new Obama office that opened last weekend right in the heart of the most conservative area around Richmond, VA, was still humming with staff/volunteer activity around 8:00 tonight, when I stopped by to get a yard sign for my son (he begged me -- there are several McCain signs on our street and he wanted to represent. :D)
I am watching this all unfold from Canada (where we too are having an election). I am truly disgusted by McCain and Palin. I have never been this upset by the behaviour of someone on a campaign. I hope Nate's model is correct (and as a stats prof I am pretty sure he is right). If not I fear for your country.
Are the Republicans prepared to do what happened in 1996 and redirect resources away from the Presidency and towards the House & Senate?
On a related note, Obama and Biden should make sure they're visiting Washington (governor's race), NH (Shaheen), Minnesota (Franken), North Carolina (Hagan), and maybe Georgia (Martin).
One of the big questions on tax policy was relating to small businesses and who would have their taxes raised.
The majority of small businesses in this country are sole proprietorships - they're owned by one person, and the profits of the business are treated as income.
Keep in mind, you pay taxes on the business's profits, not its revenue. If you own a restaurant, for example, you don't pay taxes on any money that goes to paying your workers, your business's rent, your food supplies, etc. Also, if you make upgrades to the business - new ovens, or other equipment, for example - you generally get tax benefits for investing in the equipment.
If, after all that, you made a profit, you have to pay tax; it's assumed that you could have paid yourself the all the profits in cash (probably more than that, actually) and you may choose to invest much of that money back in the business, or use it for living expenses.
If you cleared more than $250,000 after all the deductions, you're almost certianly living better than most Americans. Possibly putting in more hours of work, but given the demographics of the country, even that's not certain - and you may not be working at all, you could be an absentee owner.
OK, but what if you run the business on the side? Well, then the profits get added to your "regular" income. But, again, if that total goes over $250K, and your tax burden goes up a bit, I don't think you're doing nearly as badly as the typical "Joe Six Pack".
Most of the rest of the businesses out there are taxed like a partnership - first, the company's profits are determined, then each owner gets a share of those profits, and treats that profit as if it were typical income. This is just like the sole proprietorship case, except that now the company can be much more profitable before any individual person crosses the $250K threshhold. If the company has 10 equal partners and it makes $2.5 million in profits, and if each partner has no other sources of income, then taxes on the business would not go up under Obama's plan.
Even most corporations are taxed like partnerships. Only "C Corporations" are hit by corporate taxes - but most of the biggest companies are C Corporations. C corporations pay a corporate tax rate on their profits, and if the money is passed on to the shareholders, it is usually done as a dividend - which is also taxed. This is considered by some to be unfair double taxation.
For all other businesses, if you want to withdraw money from the company to pay your living expenses, there's no tax for that, since you pay tax on all profits as income already.
Just thought this might be interesting for those wondering about the middle class / 250K argument from the debate.
Sadly, I don't have good numbers as to how many of each type of company reach what income levels.
Matt W said...
eric,
CO flips before NV
VA flips before OH
VA may flip before CO (per Nate), but I doubt it.
Otherwise you are right on
I agree that there's a chance Virginia is the bluest of the red states after NM and IA. The problem is it's very hard to project. The polls are all over the place, in part because they don't register or vote with Party ID attached. Sabato was suggesting he thinks it's still pink. Two days later, polls say Obama's up 10-12 points. New registraton compared to Bush margin suggests new voters alone won't put Obama over the top. Very obvious that the Wahngton crowd and the youth and the "intellectual elite" and the AA and his performance in the primaries and Kaine, Warner, Webb all are factors giving Obama a great chance, but a lack of hard data makes it hard for me to put at the top of the list. It also feels like there are probably lots of "Southerners" that may just need a reason to vote Nobama.
dominar...
If you ask for a yard sign, even if you pay for it, I think you should also volunteer some time. Check out Sean's reporting on yard signs.
Glad your son is interested! A sure sign of good parenting!
You know, I was just thinking: what the republican campaign really needs is another radical change to its economic policy. Just keep flailing about till something sticks.
The fundamental problem that McCain has now is that no one really believes anything he says. It goes back to his hero, Reagan who ran on balancing the budget and proceeded to run up the largest deficits in history (up to then), and it runs right through B41 and B43 who have spun so many facts that they don't know what's true any more
Nate,
It's Yom Kippur. Take the day off. Your devotees will wait.
One point that McCain made in the debate was that he has gone against and angered both his party and the Democrats. Just what we need,a president no one in Washington likes or wants to work with.
Hilarious that, at least for a time, McPander was parroting that Obama was running for Carter's 2nd term. Your description of McCain was, in a nutshell, more than anything responsible for Carter's dismal performance. He went in as an outsider and meant it, and was at odds with Congress for his full term, and they punished him for it--on both sides of the aisle.
I think by just about any measure of management and leadership style, Obama would be much more like Reagan, and McCain more like Carter. Of course, the comparisons stop at policy.
I expect Darrell Hammond to do something similar with "my friends" on Saturday (or even tomorrow - the new Thursday night show starts this week, I think).
It will have to be Thursday, if at all. Saturday's show is a rerun.
eric,
I understand your hesitation re VA, but how do you justify putting NV ahead of CO?
Sure Sarah mentioned the Middle class. Its just she called them "Joe Six pack Americans"!
Nate Silver wrote ...
** sometimes "middle-class" -- with a dash -- in the transcript.
For anyone who missed this particular detail: "middle class" is a noun, and "middle-class" is an adjective. (Most style guides -- at least in American English -- recommend hyphenating compound adjectives to avoid confusion.)
Thus, both these are correct:
* "I will provide a middle-class tax cut." (adjective, modifying "tax cut")
* "I will cut taxes for the middle class." (noun, the object of the sentence)
While these are not:
* "I will provide a middle class tax cut." (This could theoretically mean a middle "class tax cut," a "middle class tax" cut, or a middle "class tax" cut.)
* "I will cut taxes for the middle-class." (Technically acceptable, but hyphenated compound nouns are passe because hyphenated compound adjectives are all the rage when editors get together. We have wild parties. Oh yes.)
Remember that. Memorize it. You'll make your audience (and at least one editor) very happy. =)
I find it incredibly ironic how conservatives (both in the US and Canada) say they are good with finances and blame liberals for financial problems. It always seems to turn out the opposite, indeed, our liberal party left the Conservatives a 12 billion dollar surplus 2.5 years ago, now not so much... same with what Clinton left Bush II.
Irony can be so ironic.
@Eric--
Sabato is very overrated, IMHO. National politics are not in his wheelhouse.
@Matt W--
No worries. I've already put in time canvassing, donated $$ and volunteered to host several out-of-town staff for the duration.
dominar,
OK, you deserve a yard sign then!
Keep up the good work
Spoons Fiddlesticks said...
Personally, I don't mind not hearing about the overinclusive "middle class" in every sentence (at least not in every McCain sentence). For politicians -- of both parties -- "middle class" has come to mean a group bounded by Jed Clampett (poor mountaineer) and Jed Clampett (Beverly hillbilly.) Tell me what you're going to do for the poor; they're the ones who really need the help.
"Poor" is a 4-letter word to all politicians. Obama can't touch it because he's a neoliberal, and there isn't much on the neolib menu to help the truly poor. Most "middle class" Americans prefer to identify with the upper classes, so they take offense at discussions about helping the poor. Programs like guaranteed housing so that we don't have homeless people, guaranteed health care - it's completely taboo and not up for discussion.
Marx,
I do not think the term "neoliberal" is the most accurate way to describe Obama's economic views.
Are you using it in the ordinary economic sense or are you trying to modify the american political term "liberal"
One detail I forgot to mention:
You only have to hyphenate a compound adjective preceding the noun it modifies. The compound adjective used independently (following the noun, with a form of "to be," etc.) doesn't need the hyphenation.
Okay -- back to the thread. =)
"mc9cain said...
Cugel,
ROFLMAO! And the one stunt preceding all of those? Ms. Half Baked Alaska."
That's a whole other topic!
"What are we going to do? That Steve Schmidt bastard Rove stuck me with keeps telling me the internals are terrible. Obama's nomination speech was great. We need to shake up the race."
"Well, I want to pick Joe Lieberman. He's great at whispering things in my ear when I forget stuff, like who we're fighting in Iraq, and whether the Iranians are Sunnis or Shiites. I can never remember that stuff!
But, those bastard Evangelicals are threatening to walk out on me if I pick Joe, so I guess I've gotta go with some idiot who believes the earth is 7,000 years old."
"What the hell do you mean I gotta pick that hick Alaska governor? I've never even met her. Well, screw it! If it's some Alaska hay-seed or Mitt Romney I'll go with the hay-seed every time!
If I had to wake up every morning for the next 4 years, go to the cabinet room at 8:00 AM and talk to that bastard Mitt Romney I'd blow my brains out! Get Governor Beauty-pageant on the phone."
"Jumping Jesus! The media is crucifying me on this one! They want to know what the hell kind of experience she's got? Who the hell cares? Do those idiots think I'm going to let my VP interfere when I'm making decisions like that moron Bush?
Palin will get an office with a one-way phone that she can receive calls but she can't call out, and an 8 1/2 x 11" legal pad. And a pencil. She can doodle for the next 4 years while I run the country! If I have to give her something to do, it'll be something harmless like raising awareness of special needs children.
Yeah! She can be the Vice-Presidential ambassador to special needs kids!"
"Keep her the hell away from the media until we can get her speech ready! She can read a cue card can't she?"
"Phew, that went well! Now the base is all happy and loving me to death! They think Palin's great. All I gotta do is keep her from talking to the media for the next 2 months."
"Oh, shit! I thought you told me Katie Couric was supposed to be a FRIENDLY? Palin looked like one of those moose she likes to shoot after it's been hit on the head! I'd better appear with her at the next interview and answer all the questions for her! Damn! I thought I was actually going to be able to pull this off! Now her favorability ratings are tanking faster than Nixon's after he invaded Cambodia!"
"Look, Schmidt! You foisted her on me, you keep her away from the media and from making any statement that isn't printed on a cue card until the debate. We'll have her memorize some talking points she can use to answer any question, no matter what it's about.
If she can't think of anything, she can just talk about what Mavericks we are. That should take up her portion of the debate."
"Well that isn't working out. Now damn Saturday Night Live is making fun of her again! I knew I should never have listened to that Asshole Schmidt! If I'd picked Joe Lieberman, he'd have crushed that bastard Joe Biden! Joe L. would have ripped his hair-plugs out.
Memo to self: If I lose damn this election send a giant photo of my naked butt to all those f-ing Evangelicals!"
Hey Nate, you guys still on the road? ever gonna come to Texas?
Piper,
Nate never was on the road...
Brett and Sean are on the road and they are only going to swing states. Sadly I don't think Texas qualifies
M
MAWWFO (middle aged white woman for Obama) here reporting on my own recent experience registering voters and their party identification: I had a DJ on the local New Mexico KISS FM station ask me to register voters in conjunction with her pushing it on her 7 a.m. - 10 a.m. radio program. Working as a non partisan for 7 days with the radio's promotions van we registered 167 voters. The breakdown? 115 Democrats, 15 Republicans and 37 either Independent or no party. Obamanos!
M McCain mentioned Lieberman at least three times last night, but never mentioned his own running mate. Does anyone else think there's something odd?
My friends, maverick may have been absent, but it was certainly replaced by my friends. Thank you my friends.
Was talking to my sister tonight. She lives in Fairfax County, VA and is the quintessential swing voter her last five POTUS votes are Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush
She is still undecided and I think she will probably tip toward McCain. But get this: she says she gets two or three contacts from Obama people per week and has yet to hear from McCain. She has some specific questions about McCain's proposals and she feels like she can't get answers to them.
GObama.
eve said...
My friends is a little more audience friendly than when McCain said "my fellow prisoners" today.
-------------
After 8 years of Bush/Cheney and Republican control "my fellow prisoners", although awkward, is painfully accurate.
Palin should absolutely continue stirring up people and attacking Obama relentlessly.
It's a strategy that is hemorrhaging Jewish voters in FL and PA. These voters were skittish about Obama but after seeing Palin on TV in Florida, they were vividly reminded of some parts of christian Europe in the early 1930s. McCain has lost tens of thousands of elderly Jewish voters in the last 5 days and Florida is looking all the brighter for Obama. They will not vote for McCain.
Obama, ever the astute social analyst, has redeployed big guns into Florida to reassure voters that there is a way to stop this budding American strain of fascism.
Florida is an expensive market. McCain and the RNC combined were already being outspent by Obama. Palin's attack excess was a colossal strategic blunder and it has put Florida back firmly in play after leaning McCain for months.
Obama has a stubborn lead in PA, as large as 10 points. Maybe McCain will cut it in half, but that's still a 5-point lead. McCain hasn't led PA in months and he's losing as many votes as he's winning with his strategy. I wonder who is advising him. My advice is he/she should just keep doing what he's doing and Obama will definitely be the next President.
As predictable as ever, McCain will try to shift the conversation to guns in the next few days. If that pony doesn't move the numbers in PA, he'll quietly abandon the state but he's sure lost momentum in Florida.
Mark,
Not that I want to encourage her to vote for McCain, but does your sister know about the internet? There are lots of answers there especially relevant might be the candidates own webpages.
Dave Brodbeck said...
I find it incredibly ironic how conservatives (both in the US and Canada) say they are good with finances and blame liberals for financial problems. It always seems to turn out the opposite, indeed, our liberal party left the Conservatives a 12 billion dollar surplus 2.5 years ago, now not so much... same with what Clinton left Bush II.
Irony can be so ironic.
In fairness, couldn't you say that the House controls the money and when Clinton was in office he had a Republican House?
I am growing increasingly troubled by this recent trend of ALL media saying "Landslide" and "It's Over" and "Done Deal"
This is a HUGE mistake.
If ONE person thinks their vote doesn't matter, we are in a heap of trubs!
She does use the internet some but is pretty busy. 4 kids including an infant.
I tried to find stuff for her on the McCain website and I read stuff to her and she was like "I still don't get understand. It doesn't make any sense."
My new tactic is going to be to try to show her these hate rallies as a low point in American democracy and convince her that if she can't bring herself to vote for Obama she should just not vote for anybody. Why reward hate and deception.
Reports are coming back that the crazy ride down to reality on Wall Street has resulted in close to two Trillion vaporized dollars from 401k plans and retirement accounts.
I'm bettin' that fits a stress definition. 2 trillion dollars of hard earned allocations from chronically underpaid people in mostly soulless sucky corporate jobs owned by piggish multinationals vaporized.
We as a nation do love our money as much as anyone, maybe too much. I have maintained for nearly 30 years, since it was invented, that 401k is a fucked up scam to dodge just paying people more and force them into a bed with the Street.
People thought I was a crank. Most of Wall Street's growth has been those weekly or biweekly 401k allocations and you can see the volume surge on Friday's end as mutual fund managers clear their desks with the weeks cash load.
And now, all gone. The market is going to where it is supposed to be according to the historical trends of ratio between prices for a stock share and a companies earnings.
That would put the Dow at 6000. A lot more 401k's, pension funds and retirement savings are going to go because Americans have been conned since this horror began with Reagan.
"Dude.. don't put your money in a bank.. that is soo yesterday.. you can get 11 percent from the Overseas Buttrape Mutual Fund."
For most Americans their pitiful investments in these hog troughs are all they really have to call savings. The magnitude of this wipeout makes this grown man cry, even though I don't have a penny of 'exposure' to it.
So yah, even if I were an utter redneck who really believed in the myth of Race, (it's really like trying to argue the merits of a Dachsund over a Collie), and assumed that my version was bitchin', the loss of everything I busted my ass to save from insane swindlers from my own 'race' might just make me rethink the relevance of the Dachshund/Collie argument.
GOP. the Party that Wrecked America.
Breaking Hard:
Ok everyone, I promised you this earlier today. That's right another webisode of Barack and Michelle on 'stinky plane-gate' or who's not using soap who needs soap.
As you know, a CBS reporter is accusing the campaign plane of a being a stinkhole.
As we pick up the plot, Barack and Michelle have just finished a knock down, drag out fist fight. Being the strong woman that she is, she has administered a horrendous ass-kicking to the president to be. Apparently, she didn't like being accused of being the stinky one. He went off on her after she claimed the plane stink came from 'that one'.
Look forward to tomorrow morning's webisode as the Obama campaign continues to implode.
oops that should read "I still don't understand". She is no Sarah Palin.
Oops! Ignore previous, super-oblique, Peter Lorre film reference.
Mike Easley rocks. I loved his homespun, "I was the Attorney-General in North Carolina" performance on Maddow's show today.
I would've never wanna faced him in a Jury Trial back in the day. But, then why am I so shocked? I am not claiming that Obama is a shoo-in in NC. I think it is a stretch NC turns blue this cycle, but, the South IS changing.
The Southern Strategy might deliver a McCain victory in 08 (not likely, but possible) but it would be the last one ever for the GOP.
We are working towards a new Democratic Party Plurality. As much garbage as we've been fed about: Rove the Genius, look at his razor-thin national victories (one arguably a GOP victory, & lost the national vote, & the other arguably arguably rigged as well, eg OH) & then look at the Electoral map now!
Now, Mr DeLay delivered the Congressional Plurality for the GOP but at what cost?
Conservatism is in the last throes. The GOP will have to take a long hard look at itself in the mirror next month. They should have been doing this for years now, at least after their trouncing in 06, but DENIAL can be cripplingly powerful to defeat.
Their disgusting hubris has resulted in an even worse blowback than that of Watergate?! It is true.
Wasilla's all I saw.
kelly,
I think most Obama supporters are skeptical and are going to keep their heads down and fight for the win.
Also, people will vote more because they want to be a part of it rather then because theirs is likely to be the decisive vote.
Further, Obama supporters have a strong desire to run up the score and have a mandate.
Finally, I think the chatter about McCain having no chance does more to discourage the Repubs then it does to make the Dems feel unneccesary. Everyone wants to be on the winning team and nobody wants to vote for a loser
andy r said...
what no maverick. maybe it is because a maverick is a loner. not a leader. a team of mavericks is an oxymoron.
___________________________________BRILLIANT!
The POTUS must be a leader who can drive consensus where there is none, Lead where people are unable to go, and to unite where there is division. Without those abilities, nothing can be achieved.
A maverick is someone who goes it alone. The President is someone who works wit people to achieve things.
This should form the basis of an Obama/Biden ad.
@joey yeah though if I understand the US system the executive and legislative branches negotiate the budget yes?
Nate this is for you more than the skeptics. The commonwealth of Virginia has its problems BUT least we all forget that in 1989, Virginia the former capital of the Confederacy elected the first African-American governor the Hon. Douglas L. Wilder since RECONSTRUCTION!! He is the current Mayor of Richmond and an Obama surrogate. He was a popular state senator fro twenty years before being elected governor. He was also elected Lt. Governor while Charles Robb was elected governor. (Virginia elects its governor and lt. governor separately – NOT as a ticket. Also, a governor cannot succeed himself in office - thus one term and you’re out and must wait another election cycle to run-again, not many have in history. Its' a unique constitutional law created by the founding fathers who were Virginias (Madison, Washington, Jefferson, etc.), maybe they should have emulated the same principle as they authored the U.S Constitution! (This too was before the influx of the Northern Virginia suburbs explosion.) So, my point is Virginia is Not ALABAMA; the people DO use rational reasoning when electing their leaders. Just a thought.
I am a Virginia - Arizona Republican produly voting for "THAT ONE!"
Let's be clear about one thing, haribelafonte: Other than the highly suspect Zogby Interactive Poll of 9/11, McCain has NEVER actually led in PA.
Nate, in your chart featured in "Today's Polls, 10/8" you wrote that the R2K poll has Obama +8% when in fact it's Obama +10%.
FYI
"McCain hasn't led PA in months "
If by "in months" you mean "since the start of the general election" then you are right. Otherwise, you're overstating McCain's status in PA. Basically, he has never led there. Also, the high end of Obama's lead in PA is 15 points, not 10 points: two polls at O +15, one at O +13, and two at O +10. I think that Obama is spending time there because if McCain could somehow flip it his chances of the presidency would skyrocket. Without PA, McCain likely won't win the presidency.
A taste of Keynes:
"Keynes affirmed the central role of liberal ethics in economics -- and urged the progressive archbishop to speak out forcefully on issues of economic and social justice. This was, after all, an economist who, on a different occasion, had said modern capitalism was "absolutely irreligious, and without internal union, without much public spirit, often, though not always, a mere congeries of possessors and pursuers," and who cursed "the hag-ridden" worship of "the money-motive."
"Keynes instead foresaw a time when "the love of money as a possession -- as distinguished from the love of money as a means to the enjoyments and realities of life -- will be recognized for what it is, a somewhat disgusting morbidity, one of those semi-criminal, semi-pathological propensities which one hands over with a shudder to the specialists in mental disease."
Keynes was just as unambiguous about the role we could expect of conservatives in helping reach such a world: "Conservatism leads nowhere; it satisfies no ideal; it conforms to no intellectual standard; it is not even safe, or calculated to preserve from spoilers that degree of civilisation which we have already attained."
"Moreover, he left no doubt about how their resistance to liberal reforms ought to be addressed. "There is no reason," he wrote, "why we should not feel ourselves free to be bold, to be open, to experiment, to take action, to try the possibility of things. And over against us, standing in the path, there is nothing but a few old gentlemen tightly buttoned up in their frock coats, who only need to be treated with a little friendly disrespect and bowled over like ninepins."
Ok, we all agree that registering new voters is great-- but will they be able to vote on election day? See the NY Times article about states purging the rolls in swing states: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html?hp
Or if you're feeling extra paranoid, this one: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/20/uselections2008.civilliberties
I am from the UK.
If anyone proposed tax cuts for the middle class in the UK, there would be uproar.
In the UK, the term "middle class" has a very different meaning.
Nate writes, "sometimes 'middle-class' -- with a dash -- in the transcript."
No, that's a hyphen in the transcript---and a dash in the post!
Chris Rich,
What is the source on that?
Keynes had some powerful ideas, but has been systematically ignored and refuted as economics has tried to fashion itself as a science with laws based on models abstracted from simplified types with common behaviors. There is little room for morality in what economics aspires to be.
I might be a bit of a knife fighter; but if I was Obama I would put out a press release about four hours before the last debate. It would announce tentative plans for Obama to hold a rally in Phoenix in the coming week. (Tentative as in it might not work out that way).
McCain obviously has some anger going on and I would try to knock him off his game prior to the last debate.
In the UK, the term "middle class" has a very different meaning.
Yeah, we are fucked up. In American, "middle-class" means everybody other than homeless schizophrenics and hereditary billionaires.
Benjamin,
exactly! In the US "middle class" basically means everyone. It is practically meaningless. Much like when McCain refers to you as a friend!
I am disgusted by the McCain-Palin rally in PA. The fact that Palin led a chant that “Obama is a terrorist” was the most disgusting display of slime politics ever seen in the US. Today is a sad day in American politics!
Obama is basically defining "middle class" as being literally 95% of American families. It is empty political jargon and is mildly ammusing that we are complaining that McCain doesn't use the same empty political jargon.
Okay, so I know this is a stupid question, but...
Can someone explain to me what the 2 trillion dollars lost in the past month means.
Does that mean that 2 trillion dollars has gone *poof* and doesn't exist anymore, or did it just go somewhere else?
If 2 trillion dollars that used to exist no longer do, wouldn't that mean the dollar is more valuable?
I just don't get it...seriously someone help me out.
wait. whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?
Keynes had some powerful ideas, but has been systematically ignored and refuted as economics has tried to fashion itself as a science with laws based on models abstracted from simplified types with common behaviors.
Have you listened to any of the "quants" explain what happened? They think in models, the regulators gave them a model where the risk/reward ratio favored doing what they did in the credit default swap market. End of story.
Take them at face value and they need to get a new "model" to work with, and maybe one where the risk includes asshats like them going to gitmo on a meathook for pulling this.
Yeah, I noticed how there was no mention of "maverick."
Totally killed our drinking game.
crlindoland,
did that seriously happen?
I am skeptical, but even if it did, we have a ways to go down the slime scale before we get to the depths that Nixon plumbed
Proposing something a couple weeks before the election is a good way to not be able to communicate it to anyone. It is also pretty obvious that you don't really care about the issue, and will probably forget it the day after the election.
dannylandulf,
The best way to explain it is to say that the trillions never existed, but people thought it did. What disappeared is market value and yes it just went *poof* and no longer exists. But then again it never really did exist the way cash in your wallet exists, and even that is somewhat illusory.
The value of the dollar as measured by foreign exchange is somewhat steady mostly because everyone is suffering, the value of the dollar against inflation is likely taking a hit, but we will see soon enough
So I surfed over to Virginia Conservative's discussion board and, amazingly, VC is angry that McCain silently condones the hate-speech he provokes during his hate-mongering stump speeches.
Please, someone explain VC's psychology to me.
He's indifferent when McCain chooses a VP who incarnates the entire spectrum of evil: bigotry, delusion, pathology, and stupidity.
But, now, when McCain doesn't go out of his way to condemn his base's bigotry and pathology, VC freaks out?
WTF?
Explain please.
Thanks Matt, thats been bugging me the past couple days.
Jeremey said: Nate, in your chart featured in "Today's Polls, 10/8" you wrote that the R2K poll has Obama +8% when in fact it's Obama +10%.
I think Nate is using the daily results rather than the 3-day rolling average.
Off-topic: for the record, there appears to be another poster with GregM nickname...I'll have to look into using a separate nickname if this becomes confusing
ed m.,
Finance generally should not be a private enterprise. The justification for the private ownership of productive capital does not apply to most financial institutions, and they are simply too important to let a bunch of "asshats" game around with.
So, in the US, are people not happy with saying "working class"?
In the UK, politicians refer to "working people", "hard working families" etc, and not necessarily to class, although the term "working class" is still in common currency generally.
Middle class (sometimes in the pejorative) is universally understood to mean white collar, educated, comfortably off, although not super rich.
The super rich are referred to as "bloody wankers" obviously ;-)
The best way to explain it is to say that the trillions never existed, but people thought it did. What disappeared is market value and yes it just went *poof* and no longer exists.
I want to argue with that, but yeah, for the purpose of a blog comment and not a treatise on speculation and bubbles I guess you would be better off pretending there was never any value there.
EARLY VOTING
I just read in the localpaper tonight that in my county [Volusia in central FL] the figures for 2004 election were: 19% absentee ballot votes & 18% early voting at polling places = 37% of the votes cast/counted.
This year the supervisor of elections expects that number to be closer to 50% of all voters.
Absentee ballots are already being sent out & returned now. Anyone registered & eligible to vote can vote by absentee just by requesting the ballot.
Early voting starts on October 20th.
Banked votes count as much as November 4th votes, and hedge against a regression later.
Obama support is enthusiastic in FL & many are already voting or planning to vote before November 4th.
Plus the election offices in both Volusia & Flagler Counties reported that they had record late voter registration - which ended on Monday. Their offices got FLOODED with later apps, which also only had to be post-marked by Monday so many are still en route by mail.
They expect to be processing the thousands of registratiopns for the next few weeks - but report that the late registrations also heavily favored the DEMs as did the entire state of FL where DEM voter registration #'s have grown much faster than the GOPers.
In other words, we are already building a substantial lead for Obama here in FL & intend to keep up the pressure all the way through Nov 4th.
I was skeptical that FL could turn blue this year, but now it looks LIKELY !!!
and Obama is moving even more resources into FL:
@ http://politicalwire.com/
'Obama Sends Big Guns to Florida'
"The Obama campaign's top two field generals have decamped to Florida, a sign of its confidence that the state, with 27 electoral votes, is tilting toward the Democratic candidate," according to Marc Ambinder.
"Steve Hildebrand, the deputy campaign manager, will oversee operations from Miami, and Paul Tewes, the chief general election strategist, will help supervise the get-out-the-vote program from the campaign's state headquarters in Tampa."
Interesting: "Other senior staff members will be dispatched to other battleground states soon."
So, in the US, are people not happy with saying "working class"?
No, they aren't. If you work in an assembly plant for GM, working class is the guy working at the non-unionized plant that sends you your parts. If you are that guy, working class is the guy working at the slaughterhouse. If you are that guy working class is the guy that cuts your yard. The guy that cuts your yard probably isn't an American and doesn't count for the conversation anyway.
subterranean - VC always seemed like good people to me. One of the conservatives who had his head screwed on straight. Glenn in CO was another one, but he seems to have disappeared recently. Now we're left with the likes of jack-be-nimble and the other assorted conservatrolls.
subterranean,
I gave up trying to understand vc a long time ago. It's like he's got multiple personalities or something: most of the time he's very reasonable and will take a lot of arguments into account, but sometimes he just goes into partisan-mode and refuses to admit something that's clearly true. It is very confusing.
"I want to argue with that, but yeah, for the purpose of a blog comment and not a treatise on speculation and bubbles I guess you would be better off pretending there was never any value there."
Ed M.
Yes, mine was grossly simplified, but I would argue not in a meaningful way. You are very right, if this goes much deeper it will have to go MUCH deeper.
But then again, how real is any value? The problem here is that most people think of all economic value as actually existing in something like cash!
Well I'm baffled.
Good news about FL.
If the situation is so grim for McCain, how could he have almost one chance in ten of winning, if the election were tomorrow, according to the Electoral College forecast? Are these estimates conservative, or are we really that much in the dark. With polls like this--say in Senate elections--does the underdog really win one time in ten???
matt w.
The dollar's growth isn't really because everybody is doing poorly, it's because credit is constrained.
Constrained credit = reduced spending = stronger dollar and deflation.
The rate cut of 50 bips today should help increase spending. I actually sold out of all of my US Currency. I think the fed will take aggressive action to increase spending and we will therefore be looking at an inflationary environment. Not to mention what 700 Billion does to our balance sheet.
if you guys are interested in a quality economics blog, www.nakedcapitalism.com is superb
Personal anecdote, my friend's boyfriend who is getting his MBA at Sloan was recently notified that they would not be funding his student loans for next year.
Sucks.
Danny - it's gone; this is how bubbles work.
Let's say you have some extra money one day and decide to buy a comic book. And then, comic books start to become "hot" - and people start investing a lot of money in them. Maybe you buy more of them.
You look around one day and see that if you sold all your comics you could get $10,000 for them. Wow! You only paid about $500 total to buy these things. Everyone says comics are going to get more valuable as time goes on and they get more rare, so while you think about selling them and taking a deluxe vacation, you decide to hold on to them instead.
One day, later on, some comics come out that people don't like. They don't sell. This panics a few people, who sell off their collections. Soon, no one wants to buy comics - the new ones OR the old ones. Your collection still exists, but you don't really want it anymore. You eventually put your whole collection up on ebay and it sells for $1,500.
You made money. But, if you'd sold it earlier you would have gotten $10K out of it.
Think of a share of stock as 1 comic book, and the total value of a company as how much it would cost you to buy every share of the company all at once. We value a company based on the last share sold - so, in this case, let's say X-Men #100 sold for $100 on Ebay, and there's 20,000 in existence; we'd say "All the X-Men #100's put together are worth $1,000,000!".
This week, an X-Men #100 is selling for $80. "Wow, All the X-Men #100's are only worth $800,000 - that means $200K of wealth has been destroyed!" - that's the kind of conclusion we're talking about here.
It's a little misleading, since the true value of something is exactly what someone else is willing to pay for it.
Now we're left with the likes of jack-be-nimble and the other assorted conservatrolls.
It sort of always took a special type of dipshit conservative to carry water for John McCain. Imagine the kind of liberal who would could be bothered to get really excited about a Joementum candidacy. Excited enough to troll comments sections on blogs for Lieberman.
Now imagine it's just incredibly clear that not only are you stuck pretending to like Lieberman (or at least consumed enough by partisanship to work up a five-minute-hate for the Republican), but he's becoming visibly senile and stupid and losing in a flameout.
Anyway, from an outsider's perspective, I really hope Obama wins; for many reasons of course, but one I have been mulling over recently is fluency in the English language.
For years now we have had a US president who cannot string coherent sentences together. I see McCain also stutters and swallows his words.
So Obama as the Articulate President would be an improvement.
Okay, less comedy and mirth, maybe, but I still think this represents progress.
McCain & Palin can hardlyrely on Maverick anymore as Tina Fey has turned it into a drinking game single-handedly.
'my friends' is beyond tired, especially when repeated ad nauseum by Mac
maybe he should try 'my fellow americans'
I have also not heard him mention that he was a POW recently...
maybe John is MIA - his judgment & moral compass disappeared ages ago, & his grasp on reality seems to be headed south too
I was married to a Brit for many years and thus can speak the Queen's English in addition to our brand (but not Palinese). So let me wade in.
"Working class" in the UK is what we would refer to as "blue collar workers" here.
"Middle class" here is equivalent to everyone else from the UK except the toffs.
Sorted?
@dcm in fl
McCain was a POW? I didn't know that! Why has he kept it a secret? Maybe that's why he referred to the Republican base in a speech in PA today as "my fellow prisoners."
Vanessa,
I agree with the credit argument, but as it applies to forex I still think it is hitting everyone in a fairly similar way. We are certainly heading for an inflationary environment and let us hope that it is good inflation not bad inflation.
Anyways, I am dollar sourced and living in Mexico. The Peso has tanked in the last two weeks... Gone from about 9.8 a few weeks ago to over 13 this morning! I am feeling rich, but planning to amke a large exchange soon to hit the peak.
McCain saying "my friends" repeatedly in the debate. What on earth was all that about? I thought an adviser in the campaign had asked him to cut all that out?
if there is 40-50% of votes cast BEFORE November 4th, the exit polls on election night may be way off the mark in terms of predicting the outcomes or margins or even the underlying motivations/issues that moved voters...
EVERYTHING changes in this cycle, the old 20th century rules & historical trends no longer apply so rigidly...
Nate/538 seems to be making a reasonable effort to identify these uncontrolled variables & others like GOTV & cellphone only to factor them into his predictive model.
Most pollsters seem to be missing the boat, as are many of the other analysis sites IMHO
One can't underestimate the Bradley effect. I believe it's very real and will be larger on the national level, than the local. They say it accounts for 2.5%. I am afraid it will be closer to 10 in the General election. For instances, during the debate last night, the CNN focus group loved Obama during the debate. His scores were off the charts for much of the evening, and they flatline during McCain's performance, with some positive responses. However, after the debate, when they spoke with the group and asked who they were voting for, it was 14 for McCain and 11 for Obama. Even Anderson Cooper thought that was strange. What else can account for it, but race? The group were cold to McCain during the debate and then say overwhelmingly they are going to vote for him?
I went state by state and only counted states that Obama was up by an average of 5 points, and he ends up with 264 electoral votes, and loses the election, and 5 points is probably the best he can hope for in the polls going into election day when the expected tightening occurs in the race.
akoolromeo,
read about Nate's analysis of the Bradley effect. Link with the topics links down the left column.
Matt, if you don't mind me asking you, who pays your for your anthro work?
"My friends" was said eleventy-billion times by John McCain during the debate, according to CNN.
I just noticed that if you count all of the states where Obama has a 50% chance or greater of winning right now, you reach the landslide number of 375 electoral votes exactly.
AKOOLROMEO
your bradley effect post is a sad concern troll. nothing more. you are selling too hard...
try to peddle it elsewhere as it has been debunked endlessly on this site.
DNFTT
Re: Working Class / Middle Class
Working class gets mentioned occasionally, usually as "I come from working-class roots" (Joe Biden says this kind of thing). It's a thing to advance away from, in general. But almost everyone sees themselves as being in the middle class.
And, it's not just at the lower end - corporate lawyers, surgeons, investment bankers - anyone who has a job and works for a living considered themselves "middle class". Unless you inherited wealth and never had to even contemplate working for a day in your life, you likely think of yourself as middle class in America.
Example Pro: Not as much class awareness; a doctor marrying a waitress isn't considered that bizzare.
Example Con: A lot of self-delusion politically - people making $30K a year vote against tax hikes on the wealthy because someday they might be making $1 million / year too!
I want to know what are our troops hearing oversea's the McCain and Palin saying lies about Obama or do they really know whats going on over here and who really wants to help our Country. Please tell me they are not only hearing the Negative comments about Obama. Please vote for the best person since Clinton. Obama Biden 2008 to help all people.
Acoolromeo,
also...
Some undecideds are probably racist, but that is not the bradley effect!
I generally like to think of the working class as all the waged and non-owners. Suddenly then, the working class is very huge indeed!
That's strictly Marxist you understand ;-)
Whoops!
Has anyone noticed an influx of Concern trolls ever since Nate appeared on the Colbert report?
They are all pushing the same concern-bullshit about the "bradley affect"
They are all using AOL screen names
Hell, some of them earlier were posting one minute right after another.
Concern trolls: You're bullshit isn't going to fly here.
Re: the Bradley effect, oversell or not, is it really true that the repsondents went 14 to 11 for McCain? Because given the ticker lines, that *is* really weird and inexplicable.
Vanessa,
Right now we are using money from a foundation set up by, of all people, the founder of BOA. Next year we will be using funds from Another private foundation, Wenner-Gren.
One can't underestimate the Bradley effect
By all means go out and vote and work and whatever, but the Bradley effect is older than hell and dates from a time when Black politicians at a national level were a bigger novelty than now. We've had a number of races featuring prominent black candidates in the last decade and they win or lose exactly like the polls say.
Maybe they don't want to cop to why, but if Obama's complexion is a problem for someone they will have an alternative explanation and don't need to lie to the pollster.
Havent seen more of such naratives (there are more), now that the mccane has started to fling dung:
Hopper’s son, Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Earl Pearson Hopper was, like McCain, shot down over North Vietnam. Hopper the younger, however, was declared “Missing in Action.” Stemming from the loss of his son, the elder Hopper co-founded the National League of Families, an organization devoted to the return of Vietnam War POWs.
According to the elder Hopper, McCain told his North Vietnamese captors, “highly classified information, the most important of which was the package routes, which were routes used to bomb North Vietnam. He gave in detail the altitude they were flying, the direction, if they made a turn… he gave them what primary targets the United States was interested in.” Hopper contends that the information McCain provided allowed the North Vietnamese to adjust their air-defenses. As result, Hopper claims, the US lost sixty percent more aircraft and in 1968, “called off the bombing of North Vietnam, because of the information McCain had given to them.”
Bubbles bursting cost people real money folks. Your examples operate on the assumption that people bought at ridiculously low prices, then those prices shot up to ridiculous heights, and they are not just sliding back. That isn't how the market works. Those high prices are high because someone bought into the market at those prices. 401(k)'s, managed funds, pension funds, etc. all bought those stocks when they were high, often times without the people who actually own them having any knowledge or control over it. The value of those stocks have been planed down by 30%. That is lost value. If the stocks are held (as many are) you have unrealized loss, but lots of people need to convert that stuff to income to live, so they are liquidated at a huge loss. Other stuff is simply gone. My last statement showed the Fannie Mae stock I had in a managed fund being sold for .92 cents a share when it was purchased for 75 back in 2004. The 8 grand that came off my balance sheet was sure as hell 'real' to me.
What we have right now is massive losses (both unrealized and realized) in value to the tune of 2 trillion dollars. Some of that will be made back when the value rises, much is lost period.
Matt W said...
Obama is basically defining "middle class" as being literally 95% of American families. It is empty political jargon and is mildly ammusing that we are complaining that McCain doesn't use the same empty political jargon.
Actually, no.
Obama's 95% claim is not only about the middle class (though it certainly includes them).
So how does Obama define "middle class"? Well, he points out that his tax cut for the "middle class" is more than three times larger than McCain's.
According to the Washington Post's nice illustration, this description applies to -- gasp! -- the middle quintile (20%). In other words, he's being very literal when he says "middle class."
Those below this middle quintile are most often referred to as "working class," although this isn't universal and there is no label that everyone likes. (So, no, "middle class" doesn't cover everyone above the poverty line and less than filthy rich.) Obama is not calling these workers "middle class" -- indeed, the fourth (next lowest) quintile gets tax cuts eight times as large under Obama than under McCain, and the bottom quintile gets tax cuts THIRTY times as large.
Since Obama isn't trumpeting this as a "middle class tax cut," it's safe to say that Obama is playing fair with the term: He only claims to give a middle-class tax cut 3x as big, restricting this claim to the middle quintile. The 95% claim is completely separate, so don't confuse the two.
my name is actually Seje btw.
NC VOTER
good observation about the trolls & AOL...
good, we have another infestation of those pesky trolls ?
the last one had just cleared up [except for Jack B Nonsense & Fake Joe]
no wonder I am scratching - they are like lice.
NATE - spray the site for pests !!!
The 8 grand that came off my balance sheet was sure as hell 'real' to me.
I understand, and it's why I didn't like the answer but went along.
It was in answer to why if trillions of dollars disappear they rest of them don't revalue at a higher rate. For the purposes of that question it worked as a shorthand.
Is it a coincidence that Michigan has been the No. 1 "Tripping Point" state ever since McCain pulled out?
"maybe he should try 'my fellow americans'
That's exactly what he tried today, but out came the words "my fellow prisoners." That's how screwed up McCain is.
DAN
the panel of UNDs that Andy was talking to on CNN post-debate were all looking for their 15 seconds of 'fame'.
real UNDs would not make up their mind like that at the drop of a hat.
actually the way it was put to them, it was more about 'who do you support now' as compared to 'who are you DEFINITELY going to vote for on Nov 4th.
we had no idea who they were softly leaning toward before the debate, so the individual responses immediately after were unreliable as an indicator in a small sample IMHO
Brian said...
Bubbles bursting cost people real money folks
NO! Buying stock cost people real money. The bubble bursting made those stocks less valuable (cost them value, not money). The value disappeared, the money did not! If you are in this market with money you need to live then you are pretty um... poorly informed.
Anymore, for a different explanation: bradley effect describes republican voters who, for inexplicable reason, declare that they voted democratic when they didnt.
"Meverick" vanished for two reasons:
1. Tina Fey was having a field day mocking it. But that alone wasn't enough, because it was just that sort of dippy Palin being mocked...
2. Biden kicked the living shit out of maverick and out of McCain as maverick.
Having McCain anounce to everyone that he was a mavericky guy and so was Palin and how mahvelous it was to have two major mavericks together would have a) reminded everyone of what a joke maverick is AND conjured up Biden's ass-kicking of McCain-the-poser-maverick up...
and...
Left Obama an opportunity to grab the knife by the handle and twist it.
It's dead for debate purposes, and for any open to reaction from the press situations, for the McCain/Palin ticket.
Did you guys seem Jim Cramer's recommendation that investors leave the market?
Also, Paul, McCain didnt pull out of Michigan. It was a headfake. He increased spending on the airwaves there with the RNC. His spending went from $754,000 week before last to $1,584,000 last week.
It was an effort to turn it down on the state. Which he didn't.
Matt W, I'm talking about a neoliberal economic policy with Obama. Believe it or not, this "trend" actually started with Carter, but it really picked up steam with Reagan and hasn't let up since then. It includes a counterattack against labor and the left. It pushes for concessionary contracts with unions, 2-tier wage scales, privatization, deregulation, and the slashing of benefits. Obama is reheating Clinton's brand of neoliberalism.
There were some polls done in 2006 indicating that 60% of Americans favor strong labor unions and representation. Over 50% believed that the rich should be taxed for a more equitable distribution of wealth.
I'm guessing these numbers haven't changed much, but if they have, they have probably increased. Why isn't this voice heard? Why is it marginalized? Because the Dems were complicit with the Republicans in aligning on neoliberal policy, instead of going to bat for workers. The Repubs were successful in inserting the wedge issues so that workers as a group were declawed: wedging along gender lines, race lines, religious lines, using hate and xenophobia and fear-mongering - all of it diluting the power of a workers' rights bloc in this country.
And that's how we end up with a Democrat like Clinton, or Obama, in essence supporting free market ideology and seeming to go to bat for the "middle class." Obama if he wanted to could campaign for all workers in dealing with the problems of recession. Instead, he has chosen to align himself with Wall Street and the corporatists.
He's triangulating the same way Clinton did. Wall Street/corporate capital is now shifting to Democrats and away from Republicans. Obama is reassuring them, in his speeches and in his debates, that he will stay on their side and not throw too much out to workers. It's in the best interests of capital to keep the working class "reactionary" and divided. The last thing it wants is a large coherent organized labor pool and workforce.
When Real Joe keeps talking about how McCain will lower his taxes, he must be making a lot of money for it to actually be better than Obama's plan
or he just doesn't know
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/06/09/ST2008060900950.html
Games,
OK, I got schooled.
I still think middle class is rhetoric and not usually even directly related to income, but lifestyle
NO! Buying stock cost people real money. The bubble bursting made those stocks less valuable (cost them value, not money). The value disappeared, the money did not! If you are in this market with money you need to live then you are pretty um... poorly informed.
I made a distinction between value and money but you statement still makes no sense. Your essentially saying that as long as you have an infinite timeline stocks will always recover any value lost in a downturn so you won't "lose money."
1) No one has an infinite time line. 2) Stock do not always recover all their value. 3) Just because I don't have to "live" on the money I have invested, does not mean that I don't like having it and when it goes away because a stock becomes worthless (as many, many "blue chip" stocks have done in the last two months) it is still a loss of money.
"John McCain, the man President Bush says is the right man for the Job.
Barack Obama the democratic hope for change"
That is the supposedly non-partisan copy for the debate ads on the "American Network" which is the international channel that covers mostly CBS network stuff. I think most troops get this channel overseas, so...
I think the network actually thinks it is non partisan too, they are clueless
Thanks, DCM. I'm just primed to be nervous, particularly when the polls are soooo too good to be true. Your explanation makes sense, though.
guys,
in a competitive stock market, losing value of the stock is losing money.
A stock is just another form of a dollar bill. That's it. You can use it as collateral, convert it, buy it, sell it. It's no different.
The dollar of course is more widely traded and versatile but value is money.
Dan said...
Re: the Bradley effect, oversell or not, is it really true that the repsondents went 14 to 11 for McCain? Because given the ticker lines, that *is* really weird and inexplicable.
*******
First off, I am not a troll. I used the AOL method to post, because it was the only one of the 3 choices that would work with my computer. I expressed a legitimate concern, because I know racism isn't dead in this country. Besides, nothing I said would qualify me as a troll. Does simply asking a question on here that may rain on the parade constitute a troll? I hope Obama wins, but if he does, I think it will be very close, under 300 electoral votes.
If the young voters actually come out this time, it could offset any possible Bradley effect. They came out in record numbers in 2004, but they were offset by an unusually large turnout of the evangelicals.
As one pundit said in 2004, many a politicans have hung their hopes on the turn out of young voters, and died in the process waiting for them to show. I am hoping for once they ALL come out to the polls.
Another thing to consider in Florida is that they have the anti gay marriage admendment on the ballot, which could result in an unusual number of evangelicals to come out to the polls, like it did in some states in 2004 like Ohio.
As far as the CNN focus group, yes, it was 14 for McCain and 11 for Obama, despitewhat their reaction said on the monitor during the debate.
Marx was right,
look up neoliberal economics.
It did not start with Carter! it is the combination of liberal economics (see Smith, Adam) and Market theory of Value... in contrast to Labor theory (see Marx, Karl)
GaMes
I think that's true on the specifics. However, I think the discussion of class is a difficult one because it's often about perceptions. I think politicians (including Obama) are generally more comfortable talking about the middle class and less comfortable about talking about the working class - so in general sense they can get conflated.
I had nightmares last night that I was being stalked by a small, doddering, nasty, old white-haired man...
no wait, that was the debate town hallstyle [not]
McCain was just so very CREEPY the way he lumbered about all over - staggering across the stage as if he was off his meds or needed a nap.
How many times did he wander past behing a close shot of Obama speaking ?
including at the end when he plodded in front of Brokaws teleprompter - I mean the man was out of control CREEPY
and then today, did you see him on stage trying to give a stump speech but the localyokels kept hooting & stepping all over his lines ? John looked angry at his out-of-control mob...
and CINDY was on her meds bigtime apparently when she was up there whining away about how Obama should 'step into her shoes' as a concerned parent with family in the military... creepy in entirely another hypocritical GOPer family values way but I can see why Cindy likes Sarah & told John to choose Palin for VP [as she said in People the day it was announced]
Hmm. Over at the 270towin.com simulation right now, McCain has a 0% chance of winning and only a 0.1% chance of tying. Not exactly the most believable numbers.
Dan,
If McCain only wins the remaining undecideds by 14-11 (as the focus group suggested), it'll be a landslide for Obama. Of course, a sample of 25 has quite the MOE...
akoolromeo:
What do you think is a better metric of deciding who won the debate:
-The multiple scientific post-debate polls that showed that respondents thought that Obama won by a clear margin
-25 people in a room.
Please read Nate's Extensive Post Concerning the bradley effect and why it won't be a factor this year. If you can come up with some further "concerns" that aren't addressed by this, then i'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Michelle Obama was the epitome of class and intelligence on Larry King Live tonight.
I was speechless at her eloquence and ability to rise above the campaign filth
Brian - Seje,
Money is not value! There is about a two hundred year discourse on the subject of value in economic theory. I cannot go into it all now. Money has value, so do a lot of other things, like a stock or a chair or a forest or a worker. Value is MUCH more complex then money.
What was lost was value NOT money. And this has nothing to do with having infinite time.
Matt W, understood. I'm talking strictly about neoliberalism in modern presidencies. Carter's response post wildcat strikes in the 60's by auto, postal and other union workers, which portended even stronger organization. And the subsequent presidents' responses to it.
So much for the new voters being the difference this year in swing states:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27093919/
If Obama loses any of the swing states because of this there will be riots.
McCain is now running the dirties campaign in my lifetime. It's one thin to play the guilt by association game. That is expected every election cycle. Now, they are trying to incite violence with their rhetoric. This past MOnday, McCain was giving his stump speech in New Mexico, and when he asked "Who is Barrack Obama?" Someone can be heard in the audience yelling "A terrorists!" McCain was visible taken back by the remark.
Later that day in Clearwater, Florida, Palin was making the connection between Obama and Ayers, and according to reports, someone in the audience yelled out "Kill him!" The pro-life movements love to use that tactic to incite their crowd to violence, and then they pretend they had no idea it would happen, when some nut inthe audience takes them seriouly and does it. It was also reported that one of the audience member attacked an African-American camera man.
As far as the post on here claiming she was at one rally leading the chant that Obama is a terrorist, I think I am going to wait for the footage of that, before I believe it. There has to be video of it, if she said it, since there are always camera and video phones everywhere at these rallies.
McCain may win, but we will not be able to do anything with a Senate with about 55 Democrats and a House with an even larger Democratic majority. Considering the kind of campaign he is running, he is burning up any goodwill he would have with the Democrats.
Considering where the economy is going, who wants to be President? I'm afraid they are both running to be the next Herbert Hoover. Who knows, maybe they are running to be the next FDR?
marx,
in that case I just don't think you understand Obama's ideas on economic growth. He is very much in favor of the basic principles of fordism, and in favor of organizing for every cause. Carter - Bush 2 were all basically on the same page economically, Obama is different. That is the main reason I am so strongly behind him
MATT
your money/value argument is circular.
they are NOT arguing econ 101, they are making an argument for a loss of perceived net worth which in the immediate term can only be translated into money or dollars in the US.
you are talking long-term underlying value; BUT even then your argument fails the short-term test since the dollar has also been seriously eroded under Bush so that their perceived net worth is not only tanking in real 2008 $ value, but those $s are also worth much less than when they purchased the stock that has lost even more 'value'.
In effect they have lost value in real dollars in 2 different ways in the short-term.
If they cash out, they get royaly screwed no matter how you slice & dice it.
UK definition of "middle class" = "My parents owned their own home, and (wanted to) send me to college, and I (plan to) own my own home and send my children to college", i.e. the top 25% of the population by socio-economic status, minus the top 1%
US definition of "middle class" = "I don't currently get foodstamps, or need to worry about the Alternative Minimum Tax", i.e. not in the bottom 15% or top 10% of the population by socio-economic status
Obama's definition of "middle class tax cut" = "lower taxes on anyone who has a job, pays tax, and make less than $200,000 per year" -- which pretty much includes both the US and UK definitions of the phrase, now I come to think of it...
W is already the new Hoobert Heaver. If market had held on for another 4 months, next pres would have been it. W's luck ran out. Next pres would be the new FDR
Matt,
The value of a stock is the present value of it's future cash flows and what those cash flows can buy.
The value of money is the present value of what it can buy.
When stocks fall, it's because folks don't believe the cash flows will be very strong or reliable.
Stocks fall because the capitalized monies are lower.
So what was a capitalized value of $5 (times a risk premium) is now a capitalized value of $4 (times a risk premium).
($5-$4)= $1
You're right money isn't intrinsically endowed with value. I stand corrected. I think this is a semantic argument. Would it be better if I said money is a unit of value? Either way, we "lost" money.
I hope you are right Matt W.
Anybody have an opinion on this? Not the first time I've heard about the possibility, but seeing it in the NYT really gets my attention.
[new to the site, and totally smitten!]
Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times.
[edit]
Because Democrats have been more aggressive at registering new voters this year, according to state election officials, any heightened screening of new applications may affect their party’s supporters disproportionately. The screening and trimming of voter registration lists in the six states — Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina — could also result in problems at the polls on Election Day: people who have been removed from the rolls are likely to show up only to be challenged by political party officials or election workers, resulting in confusion, long lines and heated tempers.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27093919/
Matt W said...
Games,
OK, I got schooled.
I still think middle class is rhetoric and not usually even directly related to income, but lifestyle
I agree 100% on that last point -- the lifestyle issue is where we get "keeping up with the Joneses" (which, not coincidentally, encourages people to take on debts they can't afford). I recall reading an article a few years ago, and it described how a very wide swath of people will self-identify as middle class even if they earn like $10-$15 an hour ($20K - $30K per year). Conversely, some rather wealthy workers prefer "blue collar" or "working class" even if they are earning well into the 2nd quintile (not that uncommon for organized unions in industries that require highly skilled labor).
So, definitely, your point is very valid: Class terms (middle class, blue collar, etc.) are almost entirely rhetorical most of the time, and they have a lot more to do with fitting the lifestyle of the group with which you identify than it does with the actual amount you see on your paycheck.
(I can't find that article after a cursory bout of Googling, but I'll keep an eye out for it if anyone is interested.)
markedman, thanks for mentioning Larry King. I watched it on the Larry King website.
She will make a great first lady, no question about it.
On the fluffier side, I hope they do some reporting on her wardrobe, because she is one classy dresser. Love the purple sleeveless number she had on tonight. :p
Get a load of this crap, maybe all that new voter registration doesnt count for ****.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27093919/
McCain ends up winning by a point on election day while obama is up by 6 and theyll shrug it off as "see...bradley effect".
dcm,
I know that we measure the value of what was lost in terms of money, obviously. And yes, like always, the value of money is decreasing, not just Bush years, but always. In fact, if the value of money was increasing we would really be in some serious sh!t. Deflation is not a good idea.
That msnbc article is terrifying. I guess I knew it was too good to be true.
But a townhall blogger pointed out that McCain said "middle income" at least 3 times last night!
Proof he really cares about the middle class! LOL
The Obama campaign needs to drop some serious money into PSAs in the media informing voters that they need to CHECK on their registration status and do it QUICKLY. They can't leave this up to chance.
I'd hate to see Obama turn into Al Gore or John Kerry on this issue.
I want new Mississippi polls! The last had McCain up by 8, right? That's a pretty big freaking change from +14. I think that MS has an excellent chance to be pink this year--it would be even better if we weren't having a senatorial election this term, but even so.
A few factors that may contribute to Mississippi's changing numbers:
1) The McCain political grandstanding in the first debate pissed us ALL off, y'all, regardless of political affiliation or alma mater.
2) The Obama campaign has been tremendously active here; there are tons of volunteers, even in ultra-Republican north Mississippi. My friends and I have been campaigning and registering voters in Roger Wicker's hometown, and even there, we have faced little to no hostility from Republicans (and accumulating lots of new registrants).
3) MS has the highest African-American population in the country, at 37.5% I believe.
Even in the town I live in--a university town, but by far the most conservative one in the state--far more vehicles sport Obama stickers than McCain ones. And even in the really wealthy areas, there are almost as many Obama yard signs as McCain ones.
I went to Quitman county a few days ago, on voter registration deadline day, just because it's a very small rural county in the delta and I figured that it may have been neglected by canvassers in favor of more densely populated areas closer to the river. After a couple of hours of knocking on doors and going to businesses with the intent on registering voters, sporting an Obama t-shirt and bumper stickers on my car, I just gave up--because every single person I talked to was already registered.
The Obama effort here has been awesome to behold.
In Florida, there was arecent article in the local newspaper about a concern that many voters, particularlymay get turned away at the polls, if they don't have a photo ID with them such as a DL. I'm concern that may affect Democratic voters, since some of them are poor and may be less likely to have a DL. They could still vote using a provisional ballot, but as the NYT article pointed out, they would have to return later with proof, and how many voters are going to make a second trip? It's hard enough to get some people to the polls the first time.
In Florida and many other states, they have early voting, which was the best thing they ever did for voting.
I knew wed find a way to get screwed..in some of those swing states..they are dropping 2 voters for every new one registered.
This is a farce!
like a lot of democrats I just keep fearing the republicans will find some way to steal the election again
there are a variety of methods they've employed in the past and I'm sure they are beginning their work on them now
:(
so scared
OK re: Money and Value...
There are three general theoretical ideas about value in economics: Labor (or production) value, market value, and utility value.
Labor value is easily understood as the "cost" of production.
Market value is determined by supply and demand with or without interference
Utility value is the value you get from something as a consumer often confused with "intrinsic" value
Money is really just a means of exchange.
When you buy stocks (whose value is set by a more complex market then simple supply and demand) you exchange money for a portion of ownership in a stock which has a value set by a complex market. when you sell a stock you do the opposite. when a stock goes down your stock loses its value and you will end up with less money if you sell it.
But the money did not disappear. the value of the stock disappeared. This can be very painful for a lot of people.
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