No, things aren't looking quite that bleak for John McCain just yet.
But those are roughly your chances of actually deciding the outcome of the election with your vote -- if you're fortunate enough to live in New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia or Colorado (If you live in Utah or the District of Columbia, God help you.)
This according to friend-of-538 (and Columbia University professor / Red State, Blue State... author) Andrew Gelman, who adopted a recent set of our simulation runs to come to this conclusion.
Andrew disclaims -- as would I -- that it can be quite rational to vote even given these intimidatingly long odds.
10.28.2008
1-in-10,000,000
@ 11:04 AM
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http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines
Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters.
Well, tell that to Florida 2000 ....
- P
http://southtotheleft.wordpress.com
Note that when the vote difference is one or two votes, every vote on the winning side is decisive, not just the "last" vote. So this is essentially the probability of a tie in a decisive state, multiplied by 1/2.
Those odds pose an interesting philosophical problem, sorta like Kant's categorical imperative. The decisive votes depend for their decisiveness on all the other indecisive votes having been cast. If everybody in Utah but one person decided not to vote because their individual vote didn't matter, then the one person (an Obama supporter, naturally) could cast a very decisive vote.
QED that all votes matter.
Nate, out of curiosity, is there a single state we should pay attention to on Election Night that will give us some early insight on whether it will be a good night overall for Obama or McCain?
Thanks for your obsession-generating website!
You seem to be saying that the only merit of voting is if your single vote can singularly determine the outcome of the presidential race. I think this is an egocentric way of looking at voting. There is merit in being part of the collective whole that determines our country's future course--or even in the losing bloc. Also in the--if only symbolic--empowerment one feels when participating in affairs of the body politic.
What about in a city like Omaha, that essentially has its own electoral vote, and is in a pretty tight race between McCain and Obama.
It seems like one worrying scenario is that turnout is TOO large. A friend told me recently that she tried to early vote and the wait was *5 hours* long. It seems like a real danger that people could show up energized and then after a few hours in line, give up.. and/or that they will run out of ballots in key areas.
Not sure how either campaign can combat this problem, but as turnout is a bigger factor for Obama, it definitely is a bigger concern for him. IMO
homunq seems to have the right of it. And, further, if you don't vote, you increase the odds of all the remaining votes being decisive, adding even more incentive.
Nate,
Love the site, but I think you just "jumped the shark" with this statistic. File this one under "for entertainment purposes only". I am looking forward to more meaningful analysis throughout the week and your appearance on HDNet a week from tonight.
Terrific that the data confirms the enthusiasm in Virginia. I really can't wait (plus, there's a good chance we'll be the 1st historically "red" state called for O)
Article from last week about network reticence to take their maps past 270 for Obama. It just ain't good for ad sales...
http://voiceofthemidwest.newsvine.com/_news/2008/10/21/2024496-gun-shy-why-the-networks-are-stuck-at-
Funny, those are the same odds McCain has in winning .
It was certainly rational in Florida in 2000. There you had a 1 in about 500 chance of your vote deciding the election, not one in ten million.
I saw a statistical study that claimed the having electoral votes increased a person's chances of having their vote matter over a straight popular vote.
I think after this election, there will be a lot more support for scrapping the electoral college.
That might actually favor Republicans in the future as they descend into a bitter regional party with STRONG support in the deep red states like Tennessee and Kentucky and Alabama, but much weaker support over a LOT of other states. The fanatical Fundie hordes might actually do more to influence elections in a straight popular vote than in the present system where lots of their votes are wasted in places like Utah and South Carolina.
RCP not to include PEW poll as 'lead for Obama is too big to fit into current model'...
"Nate, out of curiosity, is there a single state we should pay attention to on Election Night that will give us some early insight on whether it will be a good night overall for Obama or McCain?"
Virginia. If they can call that early, it might be all over.
Also, if they get an early read on Florida tipping to Obama then there's no reason to stay up. You can Tivo the Chicago party.
Christine Gregoire won the WA governor's race by 129 votes in 2004 out of 2.8 million cast. That's about as close as it gets.
No one person decided that election, but if all the people who posted on this site today decided not to vote because their vote wouldn't make a difference, then collectively that could swing an election.
Something to think about.
I still maintain that the chances of 1 vote swinging an election are literally 0. If the election is that close then it will be decided by lawyers arguing over some absentee ballot and whether the postmark was correct or something like that. When the range is inside the margin for error of the counting method used, then the chance of a single vote swinging it is literally 0.
So this "new" UNH poll of New Hampshire today is actually a tracking poll, it seems, like the Muhlenberg poll in PA.
NH
Professor Douglas Rae wrote a short book analyzing the electoral college and individual voting. I can't remember the title and it isn't listed on his short curriculum vita page at Yale, but it should be available with a bit more extensive research.
SHERWICK said...
RCP not to include PEW poll as 'lead for Obama is too big to fit into current model'...
Is that true??! Link please...
Indiana is the first state to have its polls close, isn't it? If that goes to Obama early or is even too close to call it's going to be a long night for McCain.
RE: The WA Gov race in 2004:
It was absolutely incredible, because the recount initially turned up that the margin was gregoire by EIGHT votes. 8! I remember that night thinking how my family literally made the difference in the WA governor's race.
Eventually there were more ballots that had been left uncounted, which brought the margin to a WHOPPING 120 votes, but that election sealed any thought of me ever skipping out on an election, to be sure.
Sometimes the stats rain down like minor league road trip stories at a SABRE convention! Wow, Nate...
Keep up the good work. The numbers matter.
OT - Reports are coming in that the RNC is asking military ballots be withheld contending Obama campaign shenanigans.
Are we living in Bizarro World now? The GOP is trying to STOP military votes from counting because Obama had a coordinated GOTV campaign within the ranks of the military?
You know a tsunami is around the corner when the Republicans are trying to stop the military vote from being counted.
Ponderous year...ponderous.
"Tim Hearin said...
You seem to be saying that the only merit of voting is if your single vote can singularly determine the outcome of the presidential race. I think this is an egocentric way of looking at voting."
I thought pretty much the same thing.
What I want to see is a voter rights bill that will nationalize the North Dakota electoral system. There is NO registration in North Dakota.
Anybody can just show up and vote there if they are a citizen and North Dakota resident.
If they are a known voter (to the poll workers) who's voted before and is on the rolls, they just vote. If nobody at the polls can vouch for them, or they are a newly registered voter, they present their ID establishing they are entitled to vote in that precinct and they vote.
If there's a voter challenge, the voter can sign an affidavit under oath that they are an eligible voter who lives in that precinct. They MUST then be allowed to vote. If it later turns out they lied on the affidavit, they can be prosecuted for felony vote fraud and they are told that before they sign.
No registration, no hassles with contested registrations. No problems with voter fraud (not many will lie on the affidavit if their drivers license, social security or other information would enable prosecutors to identify them for arrest later).
Why should we have endless bureaucratic problems interfering with people's right to vote? Just present your state issued ID and state your social security and VOTE!
(The reason we don't have that kind of system already is that it would allow too many minorities to vote, thus dooming the Republican party to permanent minority status -- and they could be expected to fight it bitterly by claiming "it would encourage vote fraud!" -- A lying swindle, but that's the Republican party -- a lying swindle from top to bottom.)
@vom
Do you have a link for that?
Indiana, Florida and Kentucky all straddle the Eastern/Central time zone divide, so the polls don't all close at the same time. I think Indiana does close at 6 local time, but since part of the state is Central, it won't be until 7 Eastern.
I have visited but I was told Drudge put the Jennifer Hudson story next to Barack Picture saying Chicago is the murder capital in America. Is Drudge making implications with Barack's face next to article?
"quite" rational? It's perfectly rational to vote, via the categorical imperative.
I want everyone vote. If I don't vote, I know that won't be true. If I do vote, it might be. Therefore, I vote.
Are you sure "disclaim" is the word you wanted there? Article and rest of your sentence suggest otherwise.
I like to think of it as my vote increasing the accuracy of the sample, rather than pretending I have a chance of tipping the election. How the system turns the vote sample into a government is a different part of the problem. That's how I got rid of my idea that voting for third-party candidates was a waste. (Although if I were American, I wouldn't dare vote third-party in this election in a swing state, which by the look of things could be almost any of 'em.)
Tim, I almost agree, although I have to question the merit of "feeling as if" you were participating in the body politic when you are, in fact, (essentially) not. Can I get some of your extra-strength placebo?
But the benefit to voting in a non-close election goes far beyond that. If McCain loses by 1 vote (or 5%, or whatever), the Republicans will come right back with the same message, stated more strongly or funded better or whatnot. If Obama wins with 90% of the popular vote, the Republicans will disappear with their tails between their legs and seriously rethink their message. A whole new party (or perhaps the old pre-state-sanctioned-religion version of the party) will have to emerge.
This is much like voting for Ron Paul or Nader or whatnot--you are sending a message that your candidate's message is worthwhile.
Has anyone heard about Nathan Sproul? He worked for the bush campaign and was PAID $750,000 to FRAUDULENTLY register voters, but was cleared by Ashcroft, shortly after the 2004 campaign. Now he runs Lincoln Strategy and is being paid $175,000 for essentially the same thing by the McCain campaign. Apparently they represent themselves as a non-partisan group but when a democrat tries to register they are told that the volunteers are only trained to register republicans and to come back later. This is more serious, in my mind than acorn, but no one in the MSM mentions it...why?
"Indiana is the first state to have its polls close, isn't it? If that goes to Obama early or is even too close to call it's going to be a long night for McCain."
Indiana and South Carolina, I believe. I will post poll closing times in this thread so folks can coordinate their schedules for next Tuesday night.
As for Indiana, 10 counties in the northwest and southwest portions of the state are in the central time zone. Both areas are Democratic historically and have good populations. If the numbers from Indy are 60+% for Obama and the state is 50/50 until the 7 PM eastern hour when the ten counties close their polls, then it is a tidal wave.
If Obama is down to McCain say 53/47 at 7 PM, Obama barely wins the state. If McCain is up 55+ at 7 PM, McCain wins the state.
Indianapolis early voting is massive so far. I think Obama could run ahead of Daniels (IN R Gov) by 500,000 votes.
What about the Virginians who take seriously the fraudulent flier circulating around the Hampton Roads area telling Democrats to vote on November 5?
Back in the 1970s my town mayoral election was decided by ONE vote! (A town of 50,000 people too, not some podunk village).
At that point there were a LOT of people wondering why they hadn't bothered to vote since the Mayor was involved in having a scandalous affair with the police chief (both parties were married to other people).
On election night, if Virginia is too close to call it will automatically be a long night for John McCain, but we knew it would be at BEST.
If they call either Virginia, or Florida for Obama by 10:00 P.M. eastern time that will be a sign that there's a tsunami brewing!
By the time Colorado results come in around midnight it will probably all be over but the concession, which will probably come in the wee hours of the morning. Possibly McCain will hang on arguing for a recount in a couple of places, but if he's already projected as the LOSER then he might give it up and concede by around 5-7 A.M. eastern time.
Off topic but an article about Nate and 538:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-stats-guru-27-oct27,0,6651423.story
Apologies if this has already been posted elsewhere.
Indiana will be the first indication at 18:00 on election night as to how the race is going but because the conservative areas of the state tend to return first, it will look like McCain has a massive lead there until much later in the evening. For Obama, if Indiana is too close to call that will mean he has outperformed Kerry and Gore even if he doesn't ultimately win Indiana.
The first real test will be at 19:00 when New Hampshire and Florida close. While Florida will be too close to call, there is a chance that Obama will be so far ahead in NH that the networks call it at 19:00. If they do, this thing is over because the networks are not going to call a state unless the exit polls show a lead of 10 points or more.
"Never tell me the odds."
BTW, I'm enjoying clicking on the McCain campaign ads you've got, Nate. It's fun to spend their money for them.
Rasmussen, was just on foxnews. and he said in his new PA poll a few weeks ago when they last polled it obama was up double digets.
this week he said he can see why obama is back in PA, not that mccain is up, but that he's making inroads. i'm very interested to see the numbers now.
Nate, that paper on social utility of voting is fantastic! Speaking as someone with a Bachelor's in Econ, I found it odd that the explanation we were given for rational self-interest in voting didn't jibe with reality, and the justification of "psychological" effects felt ad hoc. Thanks for linking me to it, I've sent it to all my friends!
Traci - "disclaim" is right, I think. Gelman tells you that your odds of personally tipping the election are minute, then adds, as a disclaimer, that it's rational to vote anyway.
I have visited but I was told Drudge put the Jennifer Hudson story next to Barack Picture saying Chicago is the murder capital in America. Is Drudge making implications with Barack's face next to article
How much overlap is there between Drudge viewers and Obama voters, even potential ones? Not enough to worry about.
We moved to NM in 2004, and since it was election season, we made sure to get here in time to register to vote. We were coming from CA, and it seemed like our first opportunity to make a difference with our votes. Then Bush won NM, anyway. :(
This year it has seemed like NM was true blue for Obama, so it didn't seem like our votes were that important this year, either. Kind of cool to learn I was wrong!
This discussion on the possible impact of one vote making a difference is great--I love to hit my pol sci students with the question because it really shakes them up and gets them thinking.
I agree with haasd--once a national election gets really close, it's decided by lawsuits involving multiple votes, so any single vote makes zero difference. That so many people believe and state that one vote can determine the outcome of a national election shows the power of indoctrination. But it's nice indoctrination, because it help gets people to vote, which is healthy for democracy. Just not truthful indoctrination. Of course, your vote does make a lot of difference--to you...
is there a single state we should pay attention to on Election Night that will give us some early insight on whether it will be a good night overall for Obama or McCain?
The Tipping Point states on the right capture that (as of 8:30am PST, 10/28/08):
- VA 40%
- CO 30%
- OH 26%
- FL 19%
- NM 19%
If Obama wins VA, there really is no realistic way for McFailin to get to 270. But my guess is that it won't be called for several hours after polls close, as the networks will be extremely gun-shy about calling a decisive race early. The same is true of FL, OH, and PA. If McCain loses any of those states, it's almost certainly game over.
IN will be a good bellweather. As someone pointed out, it's the first state to close. I believe Chuck Todd said last night on one of the MSNBC shows that if it isn't called within McCain's favor within an hour of polls closing, than McCain is probably looking at a disappointing night (even if he ultimately wins the state).
It seems like one worrying scenario is that turnout is TOO large. A friend told me recently that she tried to early vote and the wait was *5 hours* long. It seems like a real danger that people could show up energized and then after a few hours in line, give up.. and/or that they will run out of ballots in key areas.
I stood in line for *7 hours* and most everybody else in line stayed too. I have no sympathy for people who won't stand in line for an hour.
I still maintain that the chances of 1 vote swinging an election are literally 0. If the election is that close then it will be decided by lawyers arguing over some absentee ballot and whether the postmark was correct or something like that. When the range is inside the margin for error of the counting method used, then the chance of a single vote swinging it is literally 0.
And when the lawyers finally get through haggling and a judge finally rules whether to count that absentee ballot or not, it will matter what the vote is inside the envelope, no?
I think this post is meant to be tongue in cheek. I don't think anyone thinks one vote is going to decide the election.
It was probably posted for the novelty.
@Mustang: I think an exceedingly high turnout would favor the more enthusiastic campaign/the one with better ground organization, namely the Obama campaign in this election. Enthusiastic people will probably run to the polls earlier and be willing to wait longer to cast their votes.
Campaigns must be thinking of ways to entertain voters or keep them energized while they wait in lines. Free coffee and street shows would go a long way.
I'd guess that Ras has Obama up 7-8 points in PA. Given the mountain of other polling showing the lead at 10 points or more I won't lose any sleep over it.
Why is it that Obama seems to do better in polls like the new PEW poll that has him up by 16% than in the daily trackers?
Proclaiming his innocence, convicted Republican Sen. Ted Stevens asked Alaskans to "stand with me" as he pledged to defend the Senate seat he has held since 1968.
Sen. Ted Stevens leaves the federal courthouse in Washington after being convicted Monday.
"I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights," Stevens, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, said in a statement Monday. " I remain a candidate for the United States Senate."
LOL
as a new mexico voter i feel honored to have my vote count more than ANYBODY elses!
for so long we have been a forgotten and trashed and toxic waste dumped on state.
i also am aware that this is all phoney! NM is still dumped on and we are still poor. mccain talked of "americans" not willing to work in the fields all day for 50 dollars an hour. what a crock. many in nm worked two and three jobs at MINIMUM wage and pay just as much for food and utilities as richer parts of america
A close South Carolina that they cannot call until after 8 PM eastern is an indication that Georgia may genuinely be in play.
Chris Matthews is saying that the Indiana Governor's race is what will tip him off as to how things are going nationally. I think it is a top ten to look at, but the CD in NE Indiana (Souder/R-Inc.) will be just as or more telling.
The bellwether counties in Indiana to measure: Allen, Marion, Hamilton, Lake, and Vigo. Vigo has voted for every Presidential winner since statehood. Allen & Hamilton are slight and heavy GOP leaning. Marion is leaning D now and Lake is heavy D.
I cast my vote for Obama a couple weeks ago here in New Mexico!! Cool to see I have a more likely chance of being the reason he wins.
POLL CLOSING TIMES
6PM (ET): Indiana, Kentucky
7PM: Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30PM: Ohio, West Virginia
8:00PM: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee
8:30PM: Arkansas, North Carolina
9:00PM: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
10:00PM: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah
11:00PM: California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
12:00AM: Alaska
Anyone check the Hotline poll today? They say Obama still leads by 8, but then they claim that early voting stats are only 48%-47% in his favor. How come? I thought Obama would have a large lead in early voting stats, in fact, all state stats show Obama with a big lead in early tallies.
In Texas, it's amazingly useful to vote, even if we're not going to win.
Representation at the state Democratic convention is proportional to support of the prior democratic presidential and gubernatorial candidates.
Travis county came out strongly for Kerry and had 8 delegates. Places in the valley didn't and had 4.
A combination of that and knowing the rules about that were what gave Obama the delegate win in Texas. It pays to know the rules.
Can we possibly see that on a log scale?
Obama in Iowa on Friday
Nate....I'm not sure this is the most useful post, unless you're trying to discourage people from voting.
@SHERWICK
Where did you get that info about RCP not including the Pew Research poll in their average?
"all state stats show Obama with a big lead in early tallies"
well, they suggest Obama has a big lead, based on party ID and demographics. but no state has released any "tallies" of early votes yet.
SHERWICK you're an asshole.
Nice, Obama is flooding VA TV with his newest ad promoting his newest site, Taxcutfacts.org. I hope this is being blasted in all battleground states.
I live in DC, God help me.
The fact is, our vote never counts as much as we think it does. And you should never tell that to us.
Obama's childhood home in Indonesia up for sale
seventieth!
Quick thought on voting (mind you I am guessing most people on this site vote, but anyways...) voting is about belonging to something greater than just ourselves. Even if we vote for the loser we have been a part of the process. (Thats also one of the reasons 3rd party votes have a value as well!) The process is as much an important factor as the result.
MSNBC To Air Obama "Program"
Christopher said...
"Virginia. If they can call that early, it might be all over.
I agree. I have pontificated a few times over the past couple weeks whether any of Nate's 10,000 simulation runs have McCain winning if he loses VA. My guess is that the number is either zero or miniscule.
Yesterday Chuck Todd said he thinks it will be a huge night for Obama if VA is called for Obama within the first hour after the polls close there.
ARG national poll...
O: 50
M: 45
Steady.
sorry but this is so effing predictable. Rass will put out a radically low number for Obama today in PA as he has donw all cycle *every* time he polls PA his numbers are lower than the other polls. And because of that the trolls will come out to say McCain is winning and surging and the hand wrining will begin. I am going with the tracker. 11 or 12 (probably closer to 10) but still very annoying Rass making the 'surge'case.
The Biden interview with the talking head whose husband got the RNC talking points for her questions is downright comical.
She should probably be given a vacation until after the election and a long talk with the station manager.
I thought the media was this huge liberal monolith carrying out a conspiracy against America?
Fair and balanced...
Maybe not in this election, but my Utahn vote will tell local leaders that there's one less Republican than they thought.
Politico's Mike Allen quotes a “top McCain adviser” calling Sarah Palin “a whack job.”
this is good news for Sarah !!!
I think that if it were legal and I was allowed to pick one person to be singled out for some good old torture (say, along the lines of Mr. Black in Reservior Dogs), I'd pick Sean Hannity or Dick Morris (I'd probably go with Hannity). It'd be a tough decision -- Rush Limbaugh, Karl Rove, W, Cheney, Michele Malkin, Ann Coulter, Rumsfeld, Tom Delay, Michelle Bachmann, Tucker Bounds, Saxby Chambliss, Palin's husband, etc.
Hannity seems to change the polls he selectively uses on a daily basis to show that 'the race is tightening'. Hannity has spent the entire year of 2008 doing nothing but trying to tear down one man -- Fox is paying him $100MM to trot out the same talking points against Obama night after night after night after night (sure, Fox is fair and balanced -- if you're David Duke). And to what effect? The Liberals who watch H&C become even more determined to vote for Obama, the Independents are turned off and the GOP base only get more fired up to call Obama a terrorist or a racial pejorative.
H&C had on Curt Schilling -- the Red Sox pitcher. Curt frekin' Schilling? The guy is brain-dead -- he knows absolutely nothing except to preach the GOP talking points. Dig a little deeper and Schilling becomes completely tongue-tied. So, according to Schilling, he supports McCain because when there are no cameras around, McCain makes honorable decisions? If there are no cameras around, how does Schilling know what McCain does? Funny thing is -- when there were no cameras around, McCain decided to cheat on his disabled wife with dozens of women, decided to marry Cindy for her beer fortune, decided to take money in the Keating fiasco, hired onto his campaign the Bush Team sleaze that buried him in 2000, crashed yet another plane in Vietnam which led to his POW status, etc.
And, of course, Hannity never questions Schilling on any of this stuff. And Alan Colmes is such a limp-wristed Liberal he has no spine to raise any realistic questions of any of Hannity's guests.
Oh, I can only hope Obama wins this thing with upwards of 325 electoral votes -- just to finally put on in Sean Hannity's face since the law will never allow Mr. Black to do it himself.
Hey all,
For those of you stating that the PEW poll is not in the RCP averages due to throwing the averages, I just saw it there. I know we like to rip them but lets at least give them time to post. Sometimes they simply lag on getting information on the site.
My studies show that a single vote has a 1-in-9 chance of being the difference for voters in the Supreme Court Chamber.
lat,
Ras is a good pollster. I bet PA comes in at the 6-9 point range. Nothing wrong with that.
A recent poll by Temple had it at 9.
That is still a huge, huge lead.
Hey, that's better odds than most state Lotto drawings nowadays. I'll take it. Too bad I can't play 5 tickets! :)
Speaking as someone who is from Kentucky, which has been a GOP-lock state since before I was able to start voting in 2004, I still think that every vote matters, even if there's little to no chance of your vote influencing the electoral votes of your state. The popular vote may not decide the President, but I think it helps lend the winner some extra degree of approval if the popular vote is definitive, even if the electoral vote is close.
In a way, this seems to be Obama's strategy, given his personal pushes and large volunteer staffs in states he probably has no conceivable chance to win, like Texas. A strong GOTV operation in all 50 states helps to ensure a strong popular vote as well as a strong electoral vote, and right now, I think both are very important to the next President. For all the talk Republicans made about Bush having a "mandate" in 2004 with his slim popular vote win, I think pundits would be hard-pressed to argue that an Obama win with a considerably higher popular vote percentage isn't a mandate.
To follow up on my previous commment...
Conversely, Chuck Todd also said the longer it takes for VA to be called (regardless of who wins it in the end), the better that is for McCain.
So I'm looking at VA as the big barometer on 11/4.
my apologies, it's there. sorry everyone.
:(
Blogger Real Joe said...
Obama in Iowa on Friday
Why's Obama going to IA?
sorry to harp on this but look at the numbers. On 9/28 Rass polled PA and gave Obama 8 while that same day Qunnipiac put Obama at 15. On 10/6 SurveyUSA gave Obama a 15 point lead. Rass gave him 13 (lower but not as much as usual). We have 3 or 4 polls that put Obama between 9 and 13 now but I can bet Rass will say it is either 7 or 6. Sorry for the rant just drives me bananas.
creardso! (my word)
anbruch said...
Why's Obama going to IA?
i have the same question
maybe to say thank you
LOL
WTF?
Pew Research 10/23 - 10/26 1198 LV -- 53 38 Obama +15
Why's Obama going to IA?
So he can make another "closing argument" and harken back to January....
Obama is going to Iowa likely because an earlier appearance was cancelled because of the trip to Hawaii.
Plus, he hasn't been there in a while. My guess is that it's a pit stop on the way out West.
Despite being labeled a troll! I will admit this isn't good news for McCain!
Obama +19 w/ people who already voted.
http://people-press.org/report/465/mccain-support-declines
Indiana and Virginia are both big states to watch on the night. The 7pm closers could be a real bellweather of what the night will look like. If Georgia isn't called quickly, if New Hampshire is called quickly, if South Carolina isn't called immediately, and if Virginia is called quickly, all of those are good signs (if there called the right way!) for Obama.
Part of me is almost prepared to go through the trauma of having Indiana called for McCain, just so the GOP supporters can have there hopes raised, before Obama comes in an hour later and begins to clean up. (Also Indiana being called for McCain might push out a few more Obama voters in western swing states out!)
PEW poll added into the RCP average now has jumped the Obama margin up a full point back to +7.2
although they still had a link on the left side of the page pushing the arbitrary 6.2 'tightening' lede...
I wouldn't count on VA being tallied early. NAACP has filed a lawsuit against VA and Gov. Kaine for not adequately preparing for the large surge of voters this election.
Just this past Saturday when I was canvassing one guy told me he had to wait for hours for early voting and some people were discouraged and just left. It was because some computer line was down and they were having to verify voters by phone or some stupid crap like that. I just hope they figure this out before election day, with polls closing at 7pm and all.
Ted I heard Chuck Todd say that about Virginia but I think this idea that if Virginia is not called right away fro Obama Obama is having a bad night is the wrong measure. Virginia has not voted democratic since 1964, it is always called within minutes for the Republicans. If it is NOT called right away it means the Republicans have lost it and the question is only by how much. I think the networks will wait to call it until they have a strong sense of how the vote went not just exit polls. If they do not call it right away for Obama I would not take that as a bad sign. If they call it for Obama by 8:30 or 9 you can be sure Obama had a good night. But I guess Todd is making the point that if Virginia is closer than what the polls say it is the last available poll will be on Monday morning) than I guess his point is that either his gotv did not work or that there was a bradley effect that could bode badly for him. Again I just don't see that. For me the fact that it can go democratic is already so huge. Not having it called right away seems to me too high a bar to declare it a bad night for O.
My preferred measure actually--if they do not call Indiana right away for McCain you know it will be a LOOOOONG night (or very short) for McCain.
Sorry, that first comment was a little off. Assuming that ties end up with a 50/50 probability between the two candidates, to find the probability of being decisive, calculate the probability of an exact tie, then multiply it by 2. That accounts for the probability of your vote being decisive at each of the spreads from -2 to 2 votes: 1/2 * 1/2, 1/2 * 1, 1 * 1/2, 1/2 * 1, 1/2 * 1/2.
Interesting election/projection and the Redskins!
Go Steelers!
and, if they let us down...let's break the streak!
Go Obama!
OT - Reports are coming in that the RNC is asking military ballots be withheld contending Obama campaign shenanigans.
Linky, please?
Where in Iowa? Coverage in Mo, maybe, prior to/overlapping with other Mo events?
bradley effect said...
WTF?
Pew Research 10/23 - 10/26 1198 LV -- 53 38 Obama +15
the surprise is coming
6 days to go
get ready
liberal defender,
re: O ads. Yes, the tax calculator ad, as well as another ad with O explaining tax policy, are getting a lot of air time in OH
PEW #'s do look almost too good to be true if you are a DEM...
BUT they are relatively in line with the Gallup Expanded LV [53-43] & Newsweek LV [53-41]
also consistent with their own poll results from last week [53-39 but with 2x the sample]
so if nothing else, it further confirms stability in the race with Obama drawing 50%+
& those are the real trends we should be monitoring anyway at this late date IMHO
my word 'pollizes' - sounds like a Colbertism
newsinoh said...
Where in Iowa?
Des Moines area
time/place TBD
Obama's residence:
Barack lived in Hawaii with his mother and maternal grandparents from the time he was born until he was 6 years old (1961-1967). his father left very early, befor Barck was 2.
From 6-10 yrs old, he lived in Indonesia 1967-71) with his Mom and her second husband.
From 10-18 yrs old he lived with his maternal grandparents in Hawaii. (1971-1979, I think)
He went to Occidental College in Los Angeles (1979-1981)
transferred to Columbia in New York City (1981-1983, stayed until 1985)
went to Chicago to community organize and work. (Chicago 1985-1989 I think)
went to Harvard Law in Boston 1989-1991
...back to Chicago in 1991, meets Michelle at a law firm. Practices law, teaches law at University of Chicago, writes Dreams of My father in 1995, runs for South side Chicago rep in Illinois Legislature in 1996. Serves there between 1996-2004 between Springfield, Illinois and Chicago. in 2000 runs unsuccesfully to be in the US House of representaitives against an unbeatable opponent. Tries to get into the Dem convention in 2000, but can't. 2002 gives his first big national speech against the Iraq War where he catches some folks eye. 2004 gives no red and blue America speech at Dem Convention for Kerry. Becomes a star and wins a landslide for Illinois Senate Seat in 2004. Lives in washington and Chicago 2004-2006 Writes Audacity of Hope in 2005. Declares Presidential run a couple years later. Runs great campaign. Lives in Chicago, and the road. This is where we are today.
@livemild-
If it makes you feel better, I'm from MD (100% Dem, baby!) and I think your state is awesome :)
fallspo
newsinOH said...
liberal defender,
re: O ads. Yes, the tax calculator ad, as well as another ad with O explaining tax policy, are getting a lot of air time in OH"
Good to hear. Isn't it great making our own news? :)
I read here (maybe Real Joe gave us the link?) that Obama would be in Missouri so i immagine the Iowa trip is part of that. I like Obama going to Iowa. They made him they deserve his love. I also think Obama is making a tour of all the Bush states he is going to win.
And sorry guys for my rant on Rass. I just think he does this with one state every day. Like yesterday with CO which he polled on a day that 3% of the voting population was out watching Obama.
Where should Obama go the night before the election?
In the morning and afternoon, he should do Philadelphia, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh.
Then he should do Columbus around dinner time, a stop in Toledo, and end up the day in a historically relevant place:
Martin Luther King Park in Indianapolis, Indiana.
It is the sight where Robert Kennedy gave the calming speech the night Martin Luther King was killed in Memphis. RFK's speech was about unity in this country once more. He spoke of ending the divisiveness and creating a better America for all people, no matter their color, ethnicity, religion, or gender.
We have been divided as a country virtually since RFK's death, too.
I think it would be wonderfully symbolic and fall completely in line with the message of his campaign.
Just a thought...
One theory about the noticeable discrepancy between the daily tracking polls and the regular national polls is that I think that the trackers don’t do very many callbacks, as they poll over a single night (and aggregate over 3 nights), whereas the regular polls poll over 2-3 days, and attempt to call back missed households. PPP noticed that Obama tends to do quite a bit better when polls attempt to call back then when they don’t.
South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV
Indiana
O 48
M 47
i would agree with many post-ers who have pointed out that this is a complete misunderstanding of what voting is about. it is not about being 'the deciding vote.' it is about as many people as possible voting so that our leaders are elected - what's that word? - *democratically.*
i would add that all the polls in the world mean nothing if voters stay home thinking that the polls have somehow done the job of electing candidates for them - that's not how it works. actual voters have to show up and actually vote to make the poll numbers real.
lower voter turnout helps republicans - i think Andrew Gelman is being pretty irresponsible floating stuff like this around. is he purposely misunderstanding the purpose of voting or is he just dense?
Will early voting throw exit polls way off? Will early voting somehow be considered in exit polling and if so how?
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
I wouldn't count on VA being tallied early. NAACP has filed a lawsuit against VA and Gov. Kaine for not adequately preparing for the large surge of voters this election.
I won't argue on how early it might be called, but:
It's true the Commonwealth was not prepared - I voted on Saturday in Arlington, and only 5 machines were available (less than what I normally see in my regular voting precinct).
That said, the wait was only 1.5 hours, and you were given the choice of electronic or paper ballot.
The NAACP is right, and I give them props because it isn't just a race issue (Arlington is majority white - the lack of investment in voting equipment is not a racial issue)
We may be called sooner than you think. But no, I won't put big money on it.
An appearance in Des Moines will bring media exposure from the entire state of IA but will not penetrate into MO to any real extent. Far northern MO (bordering IA) has a very sparse population.
real joe,
I'll ask again.
Are you going to give us a prediction of your 'surprise' early on Election Day? How about midnight?
Anyone else in FL notice that the GOPer TV ads seem to have tailed off this week - or is it just me ?
Obama is on all the time,mostly with positive ads
some down ticket stuff [but Feeney is looking like a loser since apparently the RNC has pulled support]
but where is the nasty Mac attack ads & the nasty 527 ads they were running heavy last week about 'THOSE PEOPLE' ???
did they run out of money already, or am I just tuning them out now ?
LMAO. I just got an email from the McCain Economic adviser Doug whatever his name telling me the truth about the McCain health plan. They are doing this 7 days before the election. Obama has already buried McCain on the issue and they are responding now?
Worst. Campaign.Ever.
my word: mamau. (very creative this word algorithm)
Yes, that UNH/WMUR poll is a tracking poll that will give us New Hampshire numbers up to the election:
WMUR / UNH 2008 NH Election Tracking Poll results are based on telephone interviews with likely voters throughout New Hampshire. Each day between October 24 and
November 1, 2008, approximately 200 likely voters will be interviewed -- approximately 100
likely voters in each Congressional district. The results from three days of interviewing are then
combined to produce a rolling average. Rolling averages focus on the most recent polling data
and reduce the impact of daily fluctuations in survey results.
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2008_track08meth.pdf
My guess is, the surprise will be real joe is voting for Obama.
Well, there seem to be quite a few New Mexicans on 538. That means that 538 commentators have maybe a 5 in 10,000,000 chance of changing the election. :)
Obama on the daily show
wednesday night
Research 2000 Indiana
O: 48
M: 47
R2K Indiana
In Iowa he can give a this is where it all started "full circle" speech. Campaigns fight tootha and nail for a long time (6 months- a year) in Iowa or in some cases New Hampshire. They do this while only us politic-junkies are paying attention. i know for a fact that Axelrod, Plouffe, and Obama himself believe Iowa was the key to everything. If you recall, I think the numbers were about 38% Obama, 30% edwards, 30% Clinton. It's an almost all-white state. Lot of work went into making it happen. I think he needed to visit his Grandma, his bedrock, one time before this thing plays out all the way, whether she's very sick or not. He also wants to visit Iowa where it all started. He has a very healthy outlook on life I think. Going to Iowa makes sense, symbolically and psychologically , if nothing else.
is that south bend tribune poll the same as the r2k one?
same numbers?
if not, great!
"South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV
Indiana
O 48
M 47"
With the exception of one congressional district (Pence), Obama is tied or leading up to double digits in Indiana.
It will be close, but in the end, the Obama campaign has more soldiers and a state of the art ground game in Indiana.
My guru in politics told me once that the polls the Tuesday before the election show you where people are settling and where people are breaking best.
Indiana on Election Night will be fun to watch for once in my life!
In the end, the margin will be 100,000 or less. Anything more will sweep a Long Thompson into the Governor's office and take a house seat or two with them.
Same poll war hussein obama.
Wow! This really would be a pretty good place to exchange ideas and such if it weren't so many liberal flamers on this blog. I posted two pro-Obama polls, and not a single condescending remark, but heaven forbid had it been good news for McCain and a deluge of "troll" remarks would have come raining down!
That any individual's vote has only an infinitesimal probability of changing the outcome of the election is GREAT NEWS!! FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!
Must read McClatchy article on McCain's continued Keating Five-like shenanigans years after the whole scandal. This guy is really not the person he wants us to believe.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/254/story/54851.html
VOICE
I like your idea of where Obama should conclude his campaign - but it is too obvious IMHO
after all, he passed on even referencing the 'I Have a Dream' speech on the anniversary in Denver before a national audience
he seems to leave the easy ones out there on their own...
now, maybe Obama should conclude the campaign in Philly at Independence Hall, the whole Liberty Bell thing - or maybe on the famous steps like a certain Rocky Balboa ???
either symbolism would be relevant too - but MLK may cut too close to the bone on Election Day itself IMHO
According to Pollster.com:
National Polls:
High Sensitive: 53.3-38.4 (+14.9)
Regular: 52.1-41.6 (+10.5)
Low: 51.8-41.3 (+10.5)
Daily Trackers:
High: 50.0-44.4 (+5.4)
Regular: 50.6-43.8 (+6.8)
Low: 50.4-43.7 (+6.7)
That's a pretty big difference.
real joe, just how should we get ready? should we barricade the doors and windows, stock up with canned foode, hide in the basement etc.?
:/
motherhoose
yeah, thats always the story in va when election time comes around. it is pretty interesting but i believe they broke the streak last election cuz the skins lost but so did kerry. so it was a double bummer for me.
Being a raving redskins fan...i am obviously torn between my love for my home team and my love for my country. But if it must be so than it must be so. go...........steelers. (sob) (sniffle)
"madamerica said...
"... they claim that early voting stats are only 48%-47% in his favor. How come? I thought Obama would have a large lead in early voting stats,..."
The Denver Post's section "Denver & the West" today warned that only one third of people who had requested mail-in ballots have returned them so far.
Yesterday, I saw a copy of the ballot for the first time in the library: it's four of five pages or legal size paper with tons of ballot initiatives with many paragraphs of text. It's the kind of think that you look at once and say: Hmm, I think I'll do that later when I have an hour of undivided time.
And of course, several of the initiatives are worded by asshole propagandists to hide the true purpose. My neighbor walked a friend through the ballot and kept her (she's an overworked liberal with small kids and very little time) from voting against her ideals by pointing out deceptive ballot initiatives.
In addition to today's NYTimes article about the media handling of an Obama victory, there's a more in-depth article in the Washington Post, called "Journalists Name 44th President":
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/28/AR2008102801025.html?hpid=topnews
(Setting aside obvious ideological shills like Bill Kristol, am I the only person who finds Cokie Roberts a vile apotheosis of everything that's wrong with Beltway insider media analysts? She says it's premature to talk about Palin's or the GOP's future, and then she's quoted as saying that, because the polls aren't budging, there's nothing left to talk about in this election. If the polls aren't budging, that means Obama is winning. Wouldn't it just be the TRUTH to report what people in the GOP and elsewhere are already speculating about--Palin's and the GOP's future?)
Bradley, we're still wating for an intelligent idea from you to exchange.
To state the obvious - the key in any state poll is what Obama's number is.
The PA Morning Call poll was 53-41 Obama with 6 U/0.
If Rasmussen (which tends to push U's more) is 52-45 with 3 U, some people are going to wilt from fear, where in reality, a poll like that would be very good news for Obama - it would show him steady, just some undecided movement to McCain.
Pew's poll with the huge lead also had a lot of U's - and his analysis is that more of them would seem to be McCain friendly. So what? The Obama 53 number seems very solid.
Polls showing a McCain surge without any Obama falloff are bad news for McCain. This is the most important thing to remember over the next few days.
Does this take in to consideration the possibility that either candidate wins by a margin greater than the number of electoral votes in any one state, meaning that even if there were a tie vote in a state (or several states) no one person would have decided the election?
Because if so, then homunq, who said this:...
Note that when the vote difference is one or two votes, every vote on the winning side is decisive, not just the "last" vote. So this is essentially the probability of a tie in a decisive state, multiplied by 1/2.
...is wrong, and it is in fact more complex than that.
And another close Indiana poll, from Howey-Gauge...
M: 47
O: 45
But they seem to feel that Obama has an advantage on the ground...
Howey-Gaugeb Indiana
The Chances are 100% that is you don't vote your vote will NOT count. Therefore, your odds of casting the deciding vote are immensely greater if you DO vote.
So vote.
I'm in Utah and voting for Obama. What are my chances of a decisive vote? Who cares.
As a Utah lib, i'm used to pissing into the wind come election time. Utah dems were terrified that McCain would pick Romney as VP since he got a massive turnout here in the primary with over 90% of the vote. The few local Dems in office would have been swamped.
Now I hear some disgruntled Utahns muttering about voting for Obama and I'm confident that he will get more votes here than any Dem in the last 50 years (Clinton came in a distant 3rd here behind Perot). It's going to be interesting to see how big BO's coattails end up being here in the Salt Lake races. Matheson's seat is pretty safe, but he's practically a DINO.
I keep waiting for local Rethuglicans to wake up to the fact that the their blind loyalty nets them no love from either party, and the Evangelical wing of their party actively despises them, but I swear there's something in the water here that numbs the part of the brain that governs critical thinking.
I voted in Fairfax County (Franconia Gov't Center) the weekend before last, and although there were only about five machines, there were no lines at all. There was an Obama table set up outside, though.
These comments being full of "liberal flamers" is EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR THE BRADLEY EFFECT!!!
Andrew Sullivan has a contest of sorts for youtube campaign ads. It's definitely worth some time. Although I'd seen most of the ads, some were new to me and all of them were excellent in their own way.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/taking-back-t-8.html
Politico/InsiderAdvantage:
Colorado:
Obama 53-45, +8
Pennsylvania:
Obama 51-42, +9
DCM in FL
If history serves as a guide (as well as logic), Obama will be making airport stops all day and night Monday, going east to west, probably ending up not at Independence Hall in Philly but McCarren Airport in Las Vegas. Then maybe fly to Chicago and go to a commuter train stop in Merrillville IN (near Chicago) to emphasize the importance of Indiana.
Jeff NYC Dem said...
This is more serious, in my mind than acorn, but no one in the MSM mentions it...why?
They're white.
White people registering voters = "working".
Black people registering voters = "cheating".
For evidence, I present Katrina. White people = "scavenging". Black people = "looting".
"John McCain is working Joe's choice". So says one of todays repubblican ads.
I have done some research into the effectiveness of the Joe message.
Joe is the 45th most popular name in the US, there are 600,000 "unique Joes". If we add Josephs, we obtain an "extended Joe" population of approx 950,000. Subtracting 11% of Black Joes and assuming there are no Latino Joes we end up with approx 880,000 Joes. This is about 0,8% of voting population and this is the EXACT surge we have seen in McCain's polling during last week.
However McCain delivered the right message to the wrong audience - In fact the combined population of "extended Bobs and Bills" is an astounding 1.900.000.
There are sexist connotation to the message which surprisingly the democrats haven't yet picked: no reference to average Jane, Molly, Mary or Jill (or will this be the Dem late October surprise ?.
I have not yet measured the "likely joe" population in swing states. I might ask Zogby for help.
Aidan thanks for the links. I would just warn that the WaPo article is by Howie Kurtz. Kurtz is the one that used his article to give the McCain blogger a free platform to spout against Andrew Sullivan regarding Palin and reveal private emails between them. Take that article with a HUGE HUGE grain of salt.
And yes I totally agree with you Roberts and Juan Williams (who was on one of the ny radion shows today spouting Fox News talking points about Rezko) are the worse of the worse.
The pew poll does have a huge amount of undecideds but it seems to me that undecideds at this point are likely to not vote at all, particularly if there's long lines. I just can't imagine how anyone could be undecided who actually cares at this point.
Look at this way, if you assume the undecideds in the pew poll don't vote then Obama would win 59% to 41% (not accounting for the minuscule 3rd party vote.) (that's 52/88)
Can you say realignment? said...
As a Utah lib, i'm used to pissing into the wind come election time.
i'm a Texas "lib", so I don't mean this the wrong way, but i'm glad to hear from a Utah lib, I didn't know there was 1.
Strategic Vision polls...
New Jersey
Obama 53, McCain 38
Wisconsin
Obama 50, McCain 41
I think in all these polls, the mostimportant thing is not the spread between the candidates because if Obama is polling above 50% in a vast majority of polls, it doesn't matter whether McCain polls at 49 or 41. 50% is the magic number, that's the point at which you have to take away voters from your opponent rather than just woo undecideds.
Bradley, just for you - 1) the Pew poll was commented on in the last thread's comments ad nauseum -- please see. 2) Despite the margin, the most important number, 53% for Obama, is very believable as polls have been confirming between 50-53% for Obama for a while now.
Damn you, blogger.com!
I million voters in FL already and 1.5 million absentee ballots in OH and the sec of state is predicting 80 percent votre turnout... MSNBC today... just now
Also I heard that 90 percent turnout in VA is expected... so again, with the fact that Obama is doing better than Kerry in every state except TN and AR and that voter turnout is going to be so high... Obama +10 may be close to accurate...
Hi all,
Long time lurker, first time poster. I am a self-described moderate republican that yesterday voted for Obama via absentee ballot. My growing disenchantment with McCain just reached the breaking point and I got fed up with the name calling and labeling by him and his campaign.
McCain tries to present himself as a regular guy when the truth is he has always been a child of privilege; being raised the spoiled son and grandson of two 4 star admirals and wedded to an heiress. He managed to graduate 5th from the bottom of his class at Annapolis only because of his family connections, anyone else would with his record there have been expelled.
Now, apparently, more of his navy family connections protecting and covering fot him are now coming to light:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/news-orgs-investigate-pos_n_138449.html
Perhaps that blonde Florida newswoman should have asked McCain about THAT 1964 accident, hmmm?
I like the Aussie way of voting. If we did that in the US, every adult would be registered to vote. And the must vote or pay a fine. That way fraud/intimidation/disenfranchisement, etc would be nearly eliminated. Also, the West Coast/AK/HI voter would still vote when the East Coast returns would seem to make the vote meaningless.
Just for the record, I cast the winning vote for Obama here in Virginia on Friday. ;-)
National "exit" polls of early voters are, IMHO, pretty useless. Because different states have different early voting rules, they are going to be skewed. They are as much a measurement of early voting participation in Red states vs. Blue states as they are a measurement of the candidates' strenghts. Early voting polls in battleground states are much more interesting.
That said, it seems strange to me that some pollsters have claimend that early voting is about tied, while others give Obama as much as a 20-point advantage.
@Real Joe: if McCain really does have an October Surprise waiting in the wings, he'd better damned well use it now.
This isn't Bush-Kerry, where the candidates are within a couple of points of each other and a surprise has maximum effect the day before. Obama has a substantial lead (Pew says 16 points), and if McCain wants to turn it around, it's going to take some time and some messaging.
NICHOLAS
while the difference in the spread between the national polls & trackers is noticeable, the relative impact is relatively minor
all metrics indicate a margin of at least 5.4 - 14.9 %
but the final result would be virtually the same - a landslide EV victory
and most likely indicates a comparable tsunami of gains for the DEMs across the congressional board
the relatively narrower tracker margins tend to consider lower UNDs at this late date, but that is also probably good to keep enthusiasm up for GOTV
Who's a unsocial socialist?
Great Cartoon!
jaime said...
Politico/InsiderAdvantage:
Colorado:
Obama 53-45, +8
Pennsylvania:
Obama 51-42, +9
looking good for Obama
Nate:
Can you revisit the "internal polls" issue, seeing as camp McCain continues to site them wrt PA (quote from CNN below). As a PA resident, I continue to worry that, who knows, maybe they've got some really smart, convincing polling questions out in the field... Cause for concern, or just face-saving/morale-boosting BS?
"Obama holds a lead of 10 percentage points there, 52 percent to 42 percent, but McCain's campaign has said it is buoyed by internal numbers not showing up in public polling."
I think I have a crush on the voice of the midwest.
Mason said...
I voted in Fairfax County (Franconia Gov't Center) the weekend before last, and although there were only about five machines, there were no lines at all. There was an Obama table set up outside, though."
You got lucky. That same center had serious problems this past Saturday. One of the people I spoke to while canvassing said he had to wait around 3 hours because they had to phone in verification to vote or some non sense because something was down. I pray they get this fixed.
motherhoose--great great cartoon thanks for that link.
The polls would look a little different if you take into consideration the RNC's techniques of voter caging, voter suppression, purging mostly democrats from the voting rolls and the fact that RNC connected corporations design and control the electronic voting machines. Know the difference between voter fraud and election fraud.
Voter Fraud= proven rare
Election Fraud= proven widespread
@jenschneider
its OVER in PA
I understand the concern that a post like this one could discourage people from voting. But... it's not news to Californians that their presidential vote is less important than New Mexcians'. (See my comment about the date of my move to NM.) The presidential race is not democratic, IMO. I am one of those "radicals" who would like to see the electoral college gone.
So I see this post differently than the majority, I guess. It provides a visual for swing staters about just how important their swinging is, so to speak. That's a good thing.
Way to kneecap the GOTV, Nate. Hrmph.
Seriously though, the fact is that one vote is 1:10,000,000, but so is every other vote. No vote is worth more than the next one, and votes tally up, so... go vote anyway.
"That said, it seems strange to me that some pollsters have claimend that early voting is about tied, while others give Obama as much as a 20-point advantage."
Classic case of small sample size. The total sample for any one poll is not all that large, and then when you start splitting it into sub-groups, the sample sizes just keep getting smaller.
JenScheneider--I am not Nate but I can tell you that McCain also said they had internal polling that said Iowa was in play. So you see they can say hey have those numbers but they don't. Last week they said to the NYT that they thought the race was 8 or 7 in PA instead of 10. So it isn't like they think the race is tied or at a couple of points they are counting on racism to make up the 7 point deficit. The race I think is at about 9-10.
new thread
liberal_defender_of_freedom:
The lawsuit will make no difference to when the state is called, because the networks calling it is not based on the certified results. The results are not certified until the next day at least, and no lawsuit is going to prevent the networks from having access to the unofficial results.
"That said, it seems strange to me that some pollsters have claimend that early voting is about tied, while others give Obama as much as a 20-point advantage."
Another proof that many "new" Obama voters are out of reach for pollsters
im pretty sure anyone who is visiting 538.com and has any clue as to what is going on here, is going to vote regardless.
Nate's audience isnt exactly the low information voter.
@J, maybe we need a new Voting Rights Act?
SFERGUS
I agree with your E/W travel on the last day of the campaign
I was not suggesting ending the day in Philly, but rather kicking it off there because of the symbolism for the daytime & evening news cycle on the east coast
however, he may choose NH instead, or perhaps start in VA [or even NC]
I personally do not see Obama stopping in Vegas on the last day - not a good video for the national news on the very last day [the gambling thing IMHO] maybe the day before ?
More likely is another CO flyby, and a long shot would be ND/MT rally - VERY symbolic that would be
Iowa id an obvious stop on the final day as he would come full-circle
IN is a possibility too, but Team Obama luvs them that Springfield IL old statehouse
anyone want to bet that Obama drops in there again one more time to wrap up his 2 year campaign where it all began in his homestate ? then he can go home to Chicago & vote & watch & then celebrate
even money prop IMHO
my word is 'chi fimbo'
Jeff NYC Dem:
This is more serious, in my mind than acorn, but no one in the MSM mentions it...why?
I think it's pretty simple. Republicans push "voter fraud" stories because they're "a win at all costs" party who see undermining confidence in the election working to their advantage. (Either to depress Democratic turnout and win, or to declare the Democratic winner illegitimate and stir up resentment in their base.)
Democrats leave matters like this to the courts and don't push them in the media because they actually care about governing, not just winning, and see undermining confidence in election results as harmful.
Nice plot, but, ever heard of a logarithmic scale? :)
We can't be discouraged to vote. Overwhelming turnout is the only answer. Saving our country from republican values like torture, unfettered cronyism and continual fear pumping and lying is the motivation.
Redshift -
The networks will not call a state until all its polls have closed.
If some VA polls are open two hours later, then the call will be delayed two hours.
However, they will report on actual results that have been counted.
I live in Wisconsin, where Obama is going to beat McCain like a cheap dog regardless of what I do. Nevertheless, I'm voting Obama so I'll be able to say I voted for him.
How touchingly naive.
Maybe I've lived in New Mexico too long, but I read this mostly as "your voting fraud scheme may make more difference this year than ever before."
This from the state that was the Florida-in-waiting had not Florida done its job in 2000.
I like the Aussie way of voting. If we did that in the US, every adult would be registered to vote. And the must vote or pay a fine. That way fraud/intimidation/disenfranchisement, etc would be nearly eliminated. Also, the West Coast/AK/HI voter would still vote when the East Coast returns would seem to make the vote meaningless.
What would happen in this election if every uninformed, uninterested voter were forced to cast a ballot?
sfergus483 -- true, if the lawsuit results in the polls being open later, it will delay the state being called.
(I'm not optimistic. After the insanity of the ice storm on primary day, where the MD polls were kept open late but the VA ones weren't, we couldn't even get the VA legislature to pass a law clarifying the procedure for requesting an extension.)
I would probably have written declaims rather than disclaims.
Declares rather than questions.
@mdsf
Erg. That's a different spin on things. I've been here just long enough to know you're on to something.
First-time post: Heads-up about Indiana!
INDIANAPOLIS -- The fourth and final Howey-Gauge Poll of 2008 will be released today via a conference call at 3 p.m. (EST) today (Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2008) that is open to subscribers, advertisers and media only. The statewide survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 23/24 and includes poll results for the Presidential, Indiana Governor, Attorney General, Superintendent of Public Instruction and the 3rd Congressional District (northeast Indiana).
What: Howey-Gauge Poll results
When: 3 p.m. (EST)
Dial-In Number
Toll Free: 866-809-6529
Conference code: 6033366#
Press *6 to mute your Individual Line; to unmute, press*6 a second time.
as someone who has worked in the marketing research field for 20+ years, i can almost guarantee you that Pew's methodology is more academically rigorous than any other pollster
don't make the mistake to discount it just because it's an outlier
If you are looking for the best place for Obama to be when he anounces that he has won, there can only be one place.
He should be standing on Jesse Helms grave. That is how Jesse would have wanted it.
I'm surprised that your Return on Investment index doesn't more closely match this graph. Does the ROI index include population density?
J - The following are the must-win states for McCain*, with their associated poll-closing times. Within time groups, I have ranked them by predicted margin:
7:00 - VA, IN, GA
7:30 - OH, NC
8:00 - CO, FL, MO
You will have to decide for yourself whether VA is likely to be called before OH or CO; my own feeling is that it is likely.
* Note that NH (8:00) + NV (10:00) is also a unique path to defeat for McCain, as are a couple of other less likely combinations involving ND and MT.
Scottking, you could vote for McCain in secret and still say you voted for Obama. After Watergate, no one could be found who admitted to voting for Nixon in his 1972 landslide win.
Obama has 291 electoral votes locked up:
Kerry states + NM, IA, NV, VA, CO
+ another 47 likely OH, FL
+ another 37 pure tossup NC, IN, MO
+ another 38 possible GA, MT, ND, WV, AZ, NE-2
He'll end up with between 291 and 413 electoral votes.
ps. the chances of a log version of the graph are pretty slim. It would take a lot of paper just to write the zeros in the probability of a Utah vote being decisive. It's essentially the odds of 2/3 of the Republicans, and none of the Democrats, in Utah getting sick on the same day. Since a log graph needs space for each 0, it would not fit on this web page :).
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