Attending two major party conventions in back-to-back weeks in this era of polarized national politics was an unbelievable experience. The most dramatic period was obviously the 12-hour span between Barack Obama’s historic MLK anniversary acceptance speech and the stunning Sarah Palin announcement. The speed with which the story changed (and then changed again with Gustav) makes Obama’s speech seem already faded into sepia.
This underscores how fast modern news cycles occur, particularly as in politics where each campaign employs teams of people whose job is to change the story when it’s not going the candidate’s way. For all the drama it generated back in March, Jeremiah Wright feels like so long ago that it might as well have happened in the 1988 election. Even the text message VP announcement story of two weeks ago seems ancient. Both conventions will seem antiquated by the first debate, September 30 26 in Mississippi. In turn, that first debate and its inevitable mini-gaffes, factual untruths and campaign spin will already be old news by the final week of the election.
So what does that leave? It leaves the macro elements – partisan ID-hood, base consolidation, evangelical, Latino and African-American turnout and the percentages they split. The organizing work each campaign puts into first identifying, registering and then herding supporters toward the polls. These are bigger than any series of moment-by-moment tempests.
There was a dramatic difference in the mood of each city – Denver and St. Paul. Denver was joyful, energized and loose, with bustling sidewalks and open parties running late into the night. St. Paul was tense, heavily defended, and featured privately cloistered gatherings, sparsely populated streets (the downtown businesses and especially the hapless cabbies took a bath) and really had only one emotional peak causing the feeling on the streets to come alive – Sarah Palin’s speech.
To be fair, St. Paul’s tone suffered from a very weird opening when Gustav essentially canceled an entire day, leaving convention-goers and news media alike uncertain where the week was headed. Unlike free-mingling, free-wheeling Denver, St. Paul saw delegates, lobbyists and journalists sequestered within a few quiet city blocks by phalanxes of riot-geared police.
Overall, the major story of the two weeks was Palin. She was the star here. To a person, Republicans in St. Paul told me how much more excited they were to hear Palin than McCain. It wouldn’t have seemed possible before, but after weeks of attacks on Obama-as-inexperienced celebrity, Republicans now rally behind a charismatic insta-icon with far less experience. By being the new flavor, Palin actually lends Obama weight. After months of well-settled storyline in the cable news surrogate wars, it’s strange to see the camps switch accusations – now Democrats accuse Republicans of having the inexperienced celebrity who inspires a cult of personality. The big winners there: The Daily Show and Stephen T. Colbert.
Now we’ll have a base v. base election, and probably an election on personality, which both sides feel they can win. This is on balance a better deal for Republicans, because an issues election in a high wrong-track year is always bad news for the incumbents. Though Dems did so in Denver, Republicans didn’t talk about the economy during their convention in any fresh way. Day 1’s theme: “the Nobility of Service;” Day 2’s theme: “Mocking Service/A Star is Born;” Day 3: “Vouching for John McCain.”
Republicans came to celebrate their new icon, and to pick fights with the media over coverage. The media covering the media’s coverage of itself is irresistible media fodder, and always a good time-filler in a 24/7 news cycle, and it will certainly crowd out Democrats trying to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the economy.
So, what else did we learn? In no particular order:
We learned Joe Biden really, really feels reborn.
We learned that everything about Sarah Palin is catnip for partisans on each side. No matter what comes out about Palin, it will only entrench the enthusiasm for her among the base all the more.
We learned that Sarah Palin is a great Obama fundraiser.
We learned that Democrats still have issues with dropping "the effing balloons!”
We learned that Republicans still can’t figure out how to put John McCain in front of a non-lime-green background.
We learned that Newt Gingrich is available for any old schmoe, but Mitt Romney will hustle like a swivel-hipped Olympic sprint-walker to get away.
We learned that no matter how high the bar you set for Barack Obama in the Big Speech format, he can beat expectations.
And finally, Invesco Field, Section FiveThirtyEight (seriously):
The conventions are over. The campaign is finally fully underway. Strap in and enjoy the ride.
9.06.2008
Wrapping Up the Conventions – What Did We Learn?
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Tied the weekend after the RNC is a horrific result for McCain.
What was Bush's lead at this point in 2004 and 2000?
lat wrote:
But to think that the US has never supported bloody dictators. That is just not the truth. Period.
The objective truth is that the U.S. supports dictators when it suits their foreign policy, and supports democracy when it fits in with their foreign policy. That is not hatred of America; it's the objective truth.
Likewise, in Venezuela, "democracy" was based on the Punto Fijo accord for over twenty years. It essentially stated that two parties would alternate power, elections be damned. The oil kept flowing, the government followed our script, and nobody in the U.S. was concerned about "democracy" or "human rights" there.
Now that someone got elected there that opposes our foreign policy, suddenly we are extremely concerned about democracy and human rights in Venezuela.
I think it is more unpatriotic to blindly support your government in whatever it does than it is to be objective and honest about our prior failings and try to correct them.
And we seem to forget that the Republicans opposed the mission in Bosnia quite shrilly. Nobody on the other side of the aisle said they were treasonous or didn't support the troops or hated America at the time. That is a strictly Republican reaction.
The mission in Bosnia was denounced as "nation building", something the U.S. had no business doing. The mission in Iraq is now referred to by the Administration as "nation building", but if you criticise it you are unpatriotic and treasonous.
@midpointman:
Friday's single day numbers show that the race is back to an effective tie as of now and the trend is to McCain.
This is expected, as the bounce usually does not fully bake in to the results until Monday.
Folk's it is tied.
You do realize the bounce will fade within a week, just like Obama's and just like every other convention bounce. When that happens, Obama will reclaim a small but significant lead.
Todd--the fact that you know about Punto Fijo is sort of blowing my mind now. Next thing you will tell me is that you know all about La Violencia and El desmonte in Colombia. ;-)
new gallup says its a 2 point contest
@inkstain:
I've done some Googling and it appears that generally speaking, Bush was up by a few points in most polls in 2004 after the RNC bounce, and he and Kerry were tied in the days AFTER the bounce had faded. Kerry also got a very meager bounce, which I vaguely remember worrying about in '04.
So yeah, Obama appears in way better shape.
Charles M. Kozierok -
To you, probably anyone with white skin and speaks with some sort of a southern or folksy accent is racist. That has been the longest-running, under the radar, meme regarding race relations in the US the last 15-20 years, and quite frankly, it's sad, appalling, and another reason there is so much partisanship and hatred.
Not to excuse groups like the KKK or other white supremacist groups, but it's become a tired act to "racist-bait" against so many in the Caucasian community. That line of attack is passe except for those delusional enough to believe it has overt applications in modern society or who want to perpetuate hate-mongering between racial groups.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/09/opinion/polls/main642108.shtml
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/03/election.poll/index.html
These two links cite post-convention leads for Bush of 7 and 11 points (he eventually won by 2.4%).
I'd love to see something more comprehensive, though, than googling results.
Bush had an 11 point lead at this time, and managed to win by only 1.5%.
Obama has only a 4% lead. If he loses support like Bush did, it doesn't look good.
@vc
why do you equate Bush to Obama?
There is no basis for that....none whatsoever. He's either equated with McCain, or neither.
I'm saying this election will be just as close as 2000 and 2004, down to one state, despite people predicting how Obama will run away with it.
"At this time" meaning what?
Immediately after their conventions? At the same date? Same number of days before the election?
And what do you mean by an 11-point lead? A single poll? A tracking poll? An aggregation of polls?
And he didn't win by 1.5%, he won by 2.46%
If McCain loses support like Bush did, it doesn't look.
Why must we assume that every election for the rest of time will come down to a single, close swing state?
lat wrote:
Next thing you will tell me is that you know all about La Violencia and El desmonte in Colombia.
La Violencia, yes. El Desmonte, no.
Colombia is another tragic case where we are using them as a military base and couldn't care less about democracy - much like Honduras.
Anyone that says the policy of the U.S. government is to promote democracy is ignorant and deluded. We support democracy when it shows potential to get us what we want. If it doesn't we turn a blind eye to authoritarians.
How many people voted for the King in Saudi Arabia?
In Egypt, democracy means that soldiers ask you who intend to vote for before you enter the polls. If you give the "wrong" answer, you can't go inside and vote. If you get inside, you are given five different-coloured ballots, one of which you cast and leave at the polling booth; the others you take with you outside.
If you leave the polling place with the preferred candidate's ballot in your possession, it's immediate arrest and a jolly beating, along with a conviction for "vote fraud" (you lied to the soldiers about who you intended to vote for).
This little exercise in "democracy" is good for over a million dollars a day in aid to Egypt.
IMO this is a lose(Obama)/self-destruct(McCain) election. Until Michael Bloomberg is on the slate, there are no wins.
Subterranean,
Just curious and making sure I'm interpreting your comment. Not trying to pick a debate with you.
Are you saying that an Obama election would be bad? And that a McCain election would be horribly worse?
Just trying to ascertain what you are saying with your "lose/self-destruct" assertion.
Bloomberg is awful.
inkstain wrote:
Why must we assume that every election for the rest of time will come down to a single, close swing state?
I'm wondering why we assume this election is anything like 2004.
Everything went south for the Republicans in 2005. Their credibility with the public was dramatically eroded. The majority of the public thinks that invasion of Iraq was a mistake.
The question is not, as the GOP frames it, "Can we win in Iraq?". It is "Should we have invaded in the first place?". Winning a mistake is nice, but not enough to make Iraq seem like it was a good idea.
Most things that are important in an election have changed since 2004, and not in the Republican's favour.
dwbh -
Obama was losing in both polls before the conventions.
I think you are playing wishful thinker.
If both conventions cancel each other out, then McCain would be winning.
Nice try.
@mpm
actually, Obama was generally leading by between 1 and 2 points throughout August. Biden gave him a negative bounce of ~-2.
It's very risky to assume that the conventions exactly balance out. I personally think that Obama will have a lead of somewhere in the 1-3 point range a week from today.
one demographic that seems to me to be also severely affected by the Palin pick is hispanics. If MCcain had a very slim chance before with Palin he has even less now. And don't a lot of western states have big hispanic populations? And isn't he under performing Bush with this demographic? One more thing to consider.
Reminds me of the fourth quarter of an NCAA hoops final where the two sides have essentially traded baskets for most of the game, with Team Obama generally holding a steady game-long lead of 3 to 6 points AND possesion of the ball.
Suddenly, off the bench comes a little known sleeper whom the GOP has just recruited from Alaska, of all places. Can she make a couple key steals in the final minutes?
Perhaps Coach Rove has figured out that at least three of the swing states can be snowmobile states at times, and that most of the swing states also have tons of working moms.
MidpointMan:
Don't you realize that when you post lies that are easily figured out you reveal yourself as a lying jackass, and stupid one at that? This is a site where people actually do research. We check out factual claims. Your contention about McCain being in the lead prior to the conventions is like finding one blue stone in a load of white stones and claiming the load was mostly blue.
There is a lot more but you know the lies you have told and other people are unlikely to remember your posts.
Uh oh, kids... this looks like trouble.
Note especially how these small-town working-class women respond to the cracks about community organizers.
We TOLd you guys this was going to be costly, but you just wouldn't listen...
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