Attending two major party conventions in back-to-back weeks in this era of polarized national politics was an unbelievable experience. The most dramatic period was obviously the 12-hour span between Barack Obama’s historic MLK anniversary acceptance speech and the stunning Sarah Palin announcement. The speed with which the story changed (and then changed again with Gustav) makes Obama’s speech seem already faded into sepia.
This underscores how fast modern news cycles occur, particularly as in politics where each campaign employs teams of people whose job is to change the story when it’s not going the candidate’s way. For all the drama it generated back in March, Jeremiah Wright feels like so long ago that it might as well have happened in the 1988 election. Even the text message VP announcement story of two weeks ago seems ancient. Both conventions will seem antiquated by the first debate, September 30 26 in Mississippi. In turn, that first debate and its inevitable mini-gaffes, factual untruths and campaign spin will already be old news by the final week of the election.
So what does that leave? It leaves the macro elements – partisan ID-hood, base consolidation, evangelical, Latino and African-American turnout and the percentages they split. The organizing work each campaign puts into first identifying, registering and then herding supporters toward the polls. These are bigger than any series of moment-by-moment tempests.
There was a dramatic difference in the mood of each city – Denver and St. Paul. Denver was joyful, energized and loose, with bustling sidewalks and open parties running late into the night. St. Paul was tense, heavily defended, and featured privately cloistered gatherings, sparsely populated streets (the downtown businesses and especially the hapless cabbies took a bath) and really had only one emotional peak causing the feeling on the streets to come alive – Sarah Palin’s speech.
To be fair, St. Paul’s tone suffered from a very weird opening when Gustav essentially canceled an entire day, leaving convention-goers and news media alike uncertain where the week was headed. Unlike free-mingling, free-wheeling Denver, St. Paul saw delegates, lobbyists and journalists sequestered within a few quiet city blocks by phalanxes of riot-geared police.
Overall, the major story of the two weeks was Palin. She was the star here. To a person, Republicans in St. Paul told me how much more excited they were to hear Palin than McCain. It wouldn’t have seemed possible before, but after weeks of attacks on Obama-as-inexperienced celebrity, Republicans now rally behind a charismatic insta-icon with far less experience. By being the new flavor, Palin actually lends Obama weight. After months of well-settled storyline in the cable news surrogate wars, it’s strange to see the camps switch accusations – now Democrats accuse Republicans of having the inexperienced celebrity who inspires a cult of personality. The big winners there: The Daily Show and Stephen T. Colbert.
Now we’ll have a base v. base election, and probably an election on personality, which both sides feel they can win. This is on balance a better deal for Republicans, because an issues election in a high wrong-track year is always bad news for the incumbents. Though Dems did so in Denver, Republicans didn’t talk about the economy during their convention in any fresh way. Day 1’s theme: “the Nobility of Service;” Day 2’s theme: “Mocking Service/A Star is Born;” Day 3: “Vouching for John McCain.”
Republicans came to celebrate their new icon, and to pick fights with the media over coverage. The media covering the media’s coverage of itself is irresistible media fodder, and always a good time-filler in a 24/7 news cycle, and it will certainly crowd out Democrats trying to capitalize on public dissatisfaction with the economy.
So, what else did we learn? In no particular order:
We learned Joe Biden really, really feels reborn.
We learned that everything about Sarah Palin is catnip for partisans on each side. No matter what comes out about Palin, it will only entrench the enthusiasm for her among the base all the more.
We learned that Sarah Palin is a great Obama fundraiser.
We learned that Democrats still have issues with dropping "the effing balloons!”
We learned that Republicans still can’t figure out how to put John McCain in front of a non-lime-green background.
We learned that Newt Gingrich is available for any old schmoe, but Mitt Romney will hustle like a swivel-hipped Olympic sprint-walker to get away.
We learned that no matter how high the bar you set for Barack Obama in the Big Speech format, he can beat expectations.
And finally, Invesco Field, Section FiveThirtyEight (seriously):
The conventions are over. The campaign is finally fully underway. Strap in and enjoy the ride.
9.06.2008
Wrapping Up the Conventions – What Did We Learn?
@ 12:00 AM
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629 comments
Obama is still in the lead in the polls, but the McCain bounce is enough that is should close within 1 to 2 percent by next week.
If Obama can maintain a lead that is bigger, he will be in an excellent position to win.
The thing I love about American politics (I'm from the UK) is the way one of Obama's main considerations when dealing with Sarah Palin's emergence is not to attack her too much in case it offends women voters. That sort of thing wouldn't happen in any other country.
It seems like if the Democrats are smart, they'll push the economy issue so hard the Republicans won't have any choice but to engage. The talk I heard today in regular conversation was more about the unemployment figures than about the conventions.
Andy, it wouldn't offend most women. The ones that I know think you need to be able to take it if you dish it out. It is so the Republicans don't have a hissy causing the media to have a hissy.
Also, talking about her validates her existence and why do that? He should treat her like the pandering choice she was and just ignore her.
I'm finding that the biggest critics of Palin happened to be women.
Sean,
Why do you assume that the election will be focused on personalities? I know that this is the game that the GOP would like to play, but it doesn't make sense for the Democrats. Are there signs that the Dems really want to contest the election on personalities?
Don't forget, Sean, the story behind that lawn green background. It's a shot of Walter Reed they put up for a service-themed section of the speech.
Only somebody goofed. That's Walter Reed Middle School, in California!
The thing I love about American politics (I'm from the UK) is the way one of Obama's main considerations when dealing with Sarah Palin's emergence is not to attack her too much in case it offends women voters. That sort of thing wouldn't happen in any other country.
Andy, worry not. Obama is sending Hillary after Palin, and being attacked by Hillary is worse than being attacked by any man.
This will be a battle of personalities? I think the Republicans would like it to play that way, but Obama is way too smart for that. He's going to hammer on the issues from here to the finish because he knows that is the winner for the Dems.
Just to let everybody know, I am now back. Electricity is now flowing thru my computer.
My daily posts will begin again on Monday. Of course, I will back date all of my posts.
PS,
Sean, YOU ARE A WANKER!!
Why do you assume that the election will be focused on personalities?
I'm not so sure that's going to happen, either. I think economic realities are going to intrude. The economy is really falling apart.
One thought. According to polls as they stood before the RNC, Obama was beating Kerry by a huge amount in a bunch of red states he will never win (e.g., TX, WY, AL, GA, etc.).
If he goes back to Kerry's levels in these states, the national polls will move a fair amount without necessarily impacting Purple states at all.
Ah, how poetic...everything is fleeting, transient...
But seriously, regarding the macro trends you just described...it may have been true in 2004 that Republicans can win a base war, but it's been repeatedly hammered that an equal amount of Dems with an equal (percentage) of Republicans is a win for the Dems unless Indys go heavily for McCain. So while I believe that IF the American people were interested in an issues based election--a big if--Obama would win substantially, but if your entire premise is that nothing concrete will actually be remembered, then the fundamentals would still appear to favor Obama...barring all of the multiple external factors (excluding race).
I think that the point that you miss, however, is that while all of these events don't leave a particuarly lasting impression, the sum multitude of the character attacks do leave a vague, muddled imprint that, when reinforced, affects people's decisions to a great extent. Indeed, a person who is entrenched in this way of thinking is much harder to convince otherwise, even based on the issues that are beneficial to them, because this vagueness of "otherness" is mutable to the utmost degree, in that it can refer to experience, character, etc.
To me, all of this makes me nervous that Democrats are too overconfident that Republicans HAVEN'T pulled a John Kerry with their celebrity meme. I do think that the Obama campaign dismissed it as trivial and irrelevant. I do sincerely hope that, come the wee hours of November 5th as the election is being called, we'll have a positive outcome. But if not, I don't think I'd necessarily look at race or the McCain campaign winning some significant issue--I'd look right at the celebrity ads, starting with Hilton and Spears. Let's hope not.
Sedi,
You are a wanker, also. You were a wanker before I had electricity and you are a wanker now.
Of course this election is coming down to personality. ODUMBO is a no talent community organizer, and McCain is an American hero. Who do you think wins?
Hssssssssssss -- what's that sound?
THUNDERCRACK -- Hillary's back.
This time she's gonna let Palin know how she really feels.
I can say, as a woman, I really do not care one way or the other about Palin. The issue is what is shows about how McCain thinks.
1. That women vote based on similar plumbing.
2.There is no pander too far out there.
3. He thinks voters are stupid and won't notice or care that he picks someone with less experience than Obama after harping on it for the last few months.
4. That he doesn't think at all. He does not act; he reacts.
I think he showed what a lousy President he would be by this pick. That is the issue I have.
I had hoped, regardless of the outcome of the election, at least we would have someone better than Bush in the White House. Now I am not so sure about that if Obama does not win. I should donate some money to him. A McCain presidency is too scary for words.
No one cares that you have returned Jack Black.
"Sedi, You are a wanker, also. You were a wanker before I had electricity and you are a wanker now."
Woohoo!!!! I've been elevated to wanker status! Of course, it's not really authentic, since it's from a second-rate Mule Rider wannabe rather than the curmudgeon himself. But still, I'll take it.
You know, if Mule Rider doesn't come back and loads of new people keep coming to the site, most of the folks here will no clue as to why Nate (and others) keep getting called wankers.
jack black, I wish I could say that I look forward to hearing what the tracking polls said on this day in 2004, but I'm afraid that I've never really cared about that. Tracking polls don't elect presidents, EVs do. If you ever have an original thought, I'd be happy to consider it. But don't mind me, just go ahead and troll away.
"A McCain presidency is too scary for words."
Well the media is scared of McCain. CNN and even some at MSNBC seemed to have been crawling on their knees to the McCain camp the last couple of days pandering for some type of forgiveness. It's been pretty sickening.
Are they doing this to make the race seem real close or are they really just spineless? I hope they get a backbone pretty quick and quit falling for the Rove tatics.
These conventions have been great for comedy.
And it's Dr. Stephen T. Colbert, D.F.A.
McCain's even older than his mom; that's why they didn't show the two side by side. I could've sworn I was watching Nixon's corpse crawling out of the swamp. Nixon is still dead, isn't he?
Jack,
that "community organizer" has, at latest tally, authored 152 bills in the IL state and US Senates. Sarah Palin blatantly lied when she claimed he hadn't authored any.
How does it feel to know you were lied to?
For that matter, how does it feel to look like a fool?
yes the McCain campaign officially turned the election into a beauty pageant. Issues? Who's got issues? All is swell in Americaland. Just don't mention Republicans and George Bush in one sentence now. W now he is like the "weird" uncle of the family everybody keeps hush hush about. Pssstttt don't tell anyone we ran the country into the ground for the last eight years, so please give us four more. We so deserve it,don't you see? Moose burgers anyone? It is almost insulting to think that Republicans believe Americans are that stupid. Then again, they are Republicans.
We learned that you don't have to spend a gajillion dollars to get 40,000,000 people to watch your speech.
Talk about wasteful spending... and you want these guys taking your money?
i thought the first debate was on the 26th?
Cross-posting from the last thread (plus a link)
Possible Fannie/Freddie Takeover
If this rumor is true, it will have a seismic effect on consumer and investor confidence, and the economy will swamp all other issues in this election.
Again, if true, I fully expect that we will see the circuit breakers kick in when trading opens on Monday morning (first circuit breaker is for a 1,200 point decline in the Dow, second at 2,400, third at 3,600).
This September surprise would change the dynamics of this race beyond comprehension.
I can only hope that this turns out to be false, but unfortunately it has the ring of truth to me (having worked as an attorney in the mortgage industry).
OMG! I know that guy with the flag! We were sitting almost caddy corner from him on the opposite of the stadium and my sister and I duly noted that by the end, he was clearly tired from waving that flag around for about 2 hours straight. Namely, it wasn't flapping as mightily at the end as it was in the beginning.
Oooo! One more thing! I think we also learned that politicians will say absolutely anything if they think it will get them elected.
Fannie and Freddie dropped 20% in after hours trading. The news broke on a weekend..sounds just like the Bear Sterns deal pop it on a weekend. The trading curb will be tested at opening on Monday...buying opportunity on monday!
We learned that Joe Biden is still a clown.
We learned that Hillary lost so that's it for her.
We learned that Sarah Palin is the future of the Republican party. So you guys have new blood to hate. John McCain will be the bridge to a new age of Republican leadership for our country.
I know you guys are so happy with this. :)
WANT To KNOW the KEYS??
1. The Sarah Palin thing is overblown. She will energize the party, raise funds etc.......BUT her half life will diminsh just like an atom bomb. 50% per week!
2. The Troopergate no matter how light will not help her, only erode her postives.
3. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM is that the BOTTOM of the Republican ticket is eroding and visibility of the TOP of the ticket. McCain speech did NOT help!!
4. She will get her multi million $ book deals no matter what happens, and McCain (Cindy too) will be left holding the bag.
5. The economy is really coming apart fast (I am a marketer, but a Corporate Finance and Wall Streeter by traing and experience) and what is happening this WEEKEND with the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie with 6.1% unemployment is NOT something that either McCain or Palin have any clue about. Hey, let's get Palin on CNBC!!! She is a nitwit, who went to 5 collges in 6 years, before graduating. Hey, let's give all the USA to manage. There's a no-brainer for you. Virginia Conservative will her money manager!
Sara Palin will be forgotten as where are they now story in 4 years. She has closet full of skeletons that she is afraid to talk about and are going to be exposed.
I think I learned that stories come and go fast in the election cycle, and very few of them will change the dynamics of the election at this point.
Georgia? Biden? Obama's Speech? Palin? Gustav?
Those won't matter this week, when the above-mentioned Fannie/Freddie take-over is going to be the big story. Oh, and also Hurricane Ike.
I think the US has been in a constant financial crisis for the last year, and it has peaked two or three times, and it is going to peak again. I don't think it is going to have a gigantic effect on the electorate, but I think it is going to economically disadvantage enough people that it will push numbers over in the swing states.
I'm a proud moderate, and I'm going to vote for Obama to punish eight years of immoderate Bush.
But, I must admit, I do think Sarah Palin is beautiful.
That's about it.
Damn right about Fannie and Freddie on Monday. I can just hear Randolph and Mortimer Duke now "Wilson! Get in there and sell!! Sell!!!"
OTF,
It is like Bear Stearns in timing, but the relative impact of Bear Stearns was like a heavy downpour on the market, and a takeover of Fannie/Freddie would be like a strong Cat 4 hurricane.
Virginia Conservative:
You are so right. No chance for McCain in MN or WI, and probably not PA either.
I was shocked they spent time in WI today. This was as bad as the green stuff on the background during his speech. Somebody should be fired!
I see the key NO 1 Key battleground as CO, followed by MI.
Obama can lose FL, OH, NC and VA and sill win, if he holds NM as I think he will.
counsellorben,
Yea..I was talking about the timing. They will have the weeknd to get news out so the market doesn't completely tank. You may see the fed chair pulling an emergency meeting this weekend and a press conference sunday to try to control panic in the market on monday.
Matthew said "I don't think it is going to have a gigantic effect on the electorate, but I think it is going to economically disadvantage enough people that it will push numbers over in the swing states."
Matthew,
I hope your analysis is correct and that my pessimism is incorrect, but I am relieved at this moment that I counseled my father not to place a large investment back into the market last month (and I wish I had heeded my own advice).
Has any of the media pointed out that Palin had to keep looking at note cards for her rally today?
I mean this is serious stuff, the media can't just let stuff like this slide with the future of the country and it's economy is at a pretty big risk right now.
I'm not saying the media has to pander to Obama 24/7 but they really need to grow a backbone and give America some real reporting of this election and not walk on eggshells for certain people. I guess this is what we get when the media only cares about $$$ and keeping the race close for ratings.
The first debate is the 26th.
I am disappointed to see that you seem to agree that the election is about personalities. The US employment figures were out today, and they were down significantly. They will continue to go down, and by the time of the election we could be in a full-blown recession. People are hurting now, and soon they will be really, really hurting. One of Hillary Clinton's appeals was that she could give people answers, specific answers about the solutions to problems. I think you are wrong that the personalities will continue to dominate in times like these. I think McCain is going to have a very difficult time telling people he is the change candidate when his economic policies look so much like the Bush policies. Vague talk about character is not what people who are really hurting want to hear. And I also think that Sara Palin, who is admittedly an intriguing personality, will wear thin. There are already many stories questioning some of her claims. And the policy to hightail it back to Alaska and basically hide from the media could backfire bigtime, especially if people want and need real solutions. I think she is likely only to hold on to her conservative base, especially as folks learn more about who she really is. But if ever issues were important, I believe this is the election when that is true.
OTF said "You may see the fed chair pulling an emergency meeting this weekend and a press conference sunday to try to control panic in the market on monday."
OTF,
A very good point, and very likely, but even with that, I still think that the 1,200 point circuit breaker will be tripped Monday morning.
I don't even want to think about the carnage that may occur in the Asian markets on Monday.
Folks, the Fed bailout is a positive for stocks.
Particularly the financials!
If this happens, expect a rally of 5%-7% in the next 5-7 trading days.
Probably up to 1,300 on the S&P.
After that, I don't know!
1. I'm totally digging Biden's response to the RNC - He's talking all about what he did NOT hear at the convention and I think that will really resonate. The RNC was complete fluff. Nothing but personal stories and personal attacks. They can't run on the issues, the McCain campaign admits that.
2. The more people learn about Sarah Palin the more of a problem she will be for the McCain campaign. She still hasn't really dealt with anything. She read a speech off a teleprompter. Big deal. She was a sportscaster. Is being able to read a teleprompter well now enough to be Vice President? Ridiculous.
quantman,
I prefer your outlook to mine. What is your background and expertise which leads to your conclusion?
It's late here on the east coast, and I will sleep more soundly if you can give me some reason for optimism.
Did u guys not see Bill Gross ON CNBC??
THis is a positive for stocks!
And housing and real estate!
That is the only reason Paulson (former Goldman Sachs Chairman is doing this) is doiung this.
The market will move up.
THE AFTER HRS MARKET ON FINANCIALS THIS EVENING WERE UP NEARLY 2%. S&P was UP over 1%.
DO U GUYS KNOW WHAT U ARE TALKING ABOUT?
PAULSON IS DOING THIS TO LIMIT GOVT LOSSES AND make money in the long run.
THIS WIILL BE A POSITIVE for us as TAXPAYERS 3-5 YRS FROM NOW.
THE ALETRNATIVE IS FINANCIAL MELTDOWN.
IF U ARE TRUE PATRIOT (AND I AM 100% FOR OBAMA) U will suport this!
We learned that republicans are the vacuous party of gimmickry, obfuscation and distraction.
Repukes want it to be about personalities as if it was a third party destroying the country over the last 8 years. This election is about lack of accountability and lack of any semblance of a plan on the republican side. 8 is enough.
We learned that Sara Palin is popular, but is she ready to lead like McCan't promised his running mate would be?
From the saem ABC nws poll:
Experience to serve effectively as president? Palin: 42% yes, 50% no; Biden: 66% yes, 21% no
"Oooo! One more thing! I think we also learned that politicians will say absolutely anything if they think it will get them elected."
"We learned that republicans are the vacuous party of gimmickry, obfuscation and distraction."
You learned these things last week?
counsellorben:
I am predicting that this won't be ECONOCALYPSE because I already predicted that in like...2002 to 2004, and it never materialized.
The thing is, right now the US has a financial problem, even a financial crisis. Behind this is an economic problem. But just because the finances are moving back and forth and causing jitters, that doesn't mean that the economy is going to tank, because the economy is based on production and consumption of goods and services, which haven't changed much.
There is also, behind this financial change, a big economic change which isn't really being addressed as it should be. The United States can't continue to consume more than it produces, especially with oil. The only question is how the US is going to come to terms with depending on foreign oil and foreign manufactoring... over weeks, or over a few years. I think the second is more likely.
All of which makes me think that this isn't going to have a tidal wave of change between now and November. But it doesn't have to. It just has to change the mind of a few tens of thousands of people in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado or Nevada (for the tie).
Senate GOP Sets Filibuster Record
CounselllorBEN:
MY background is Masters in Quant stuff and MBA IN Corp Finance and Professional ACCTG with over 20 yrs with the global Fortune 50.
I am ex Wall Streeter.
This news is quite different from a conv Preffered or Warrant linked Preferred that Bill Gross talked about.
Nevertheless, this will open up the flood gates for buying up the mortgage debt that currently has very little buyers, with huge risk spreads. Because there is now a true back-stop.
The big issue now is what we call moral hazard, which is not good for the true capitalist system, which I tend to favor. In these cases, I prefer the bloodletting but in this case the systemic risks are too darn big and not worth taking.
Bottomline, we have a Hobson's choice.
And finally, Money will flow in, big time!
YOu can expect to see Monday up 200-300 pts easy!
Troopergate on the rise. The investigator isn't playing games with the stall tactics. He's gong to get subpoenas and is moving up the investiagtion conclusion to middle of october.
quantman said...
"I see the key NO 1 Key battleground as CO, followed by MI.
Obama can lose FL, OH, NC and VA and sill win, if he holds NM as I think he will."
Stuff like this cracks me up.
Obama CAN lose FL, OH, NC and VA?
What makes you think he can win them?
Where are you getting all those new voters? This election has been going on for over a year... if you are not on that Obama train by now you will never leave the station.
You keep "praying" you will turn these states... or is it "hope" for you guys?
The only shot you had left was Ohio and a little secret weapon named Sarah just kinda took that out of reach.
Obama is "the one" that is losing his popularity and in about 60 more days there won't be enough left. I would be worried about hanging on to Penn. to save complete embarrassment.
But there are always the polls that remain to be seen. You can always cross your fingers and "hope".
I see dark days coming to Demland.
More wishful thinking. Obama's voters aren't in the LV models he has 2-3 pts in every state.
Check out this brilliant and scathing video from Jon Stewart about the blatant and appalling hypocrisy of The GOP and it's pundits:
]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbEePFpB8ww
My thoughts:
If there is a God, these people will not win this election. In fact, their whole entire party should go down in flames. The cynicism and outright hypocrisy of what this party is trying to do to the American public's psyche with this Sarah Palin-crap is appalling.
First in 2004, they used "fear" and the tactics of Karl Rove to scare the American people into four more years of that retard Dubya's rule, after lying to get us into a dumb, pointless, and costly war in Iraq. This bafoon has lampooned the Geneva Convention with his war-mongering tomfoolery. And quite honestly, George W. Bush should be in jail. He's a war criminal, plan and simple.
And "supposedly" this is the party of COUNTRY FIRST? Yeah f^ckin' right. This is PARTY FIRST at best. John McCain makes a completely selfish pick with this political ploy Sarah Palin only to secure his base and sway women voters (and Hillary supporters) and small town folks (and so far, it aint working). What if that zombie John McCain dies? Then what? Will Palin be ready to lead the free world? Is she trained and cultured in foreign policy enough to take on enemy leaders of other countries? Could she be a good Ambassador for the US around the world? NO! She just got her passport in 07 for chrissakes! It's ridiculous. And then comes the worst part.
The Hillary Clinton campaign was historic. It raised questions in American politics that have long been forgotten. Sexism and the role of powerful women in the world. The cynicism in The Republican Party is the fact that they are playing on America's sensitivity and concern with these issues and doing so "only" to win votes. They don't care about women's rights.
Hell, Sarah Palin barely even cares. [b]She voted AGAINST benefits for TEENAGE MOMS[/B] (and she has a pregnant teenage daughter. Go figure) and [b]John McCain has voted AGAINST "equal pay to women". Wooooooow. Yeah this side really cares about women. Yeah, sure.
CARIBOU BARBIE (that's Sarah Palin btw) could give a ***** about women's suffrage or rights. She wants power and wants to win. She already has an impeccable record of abuse of power.
Also, the sad part is ]THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS HISTORIC FOR THESE KINDS OF CYNICAL POLITICAL "HAIL MARYS" TO WIN ELECTIONS.
[b]Richard Nixon (a REPUBLICAN)[/B] did it by in the 1968 when he stole his opponents entire campaign platform. And George H.W. Bush (a REPUBLICAN) did it in the 1980s when he hid DAN QUAYLE from the media saying his was a pariah and the media was unjustly attacking him (Sounds familiar folks. Only this time they through in the ludicrous claim of "sexism" to boot to get them good 'ol "hockey" and "soccer mom" votes.) The only reason they scream "sexism" and "media witchhunt" is so they can hide their political gimmick from the media because she'll be exposed for the fraud, hoax, power-hungry, manipulative sack-o-sheeit she is. It's what they do to win elections people. It's in their history folks. Don't fall for it.
I mean seriously. Is this gonna work on you people? Are you not voting the issues? Do you not care where this country's future goes? I tell ya...
If America falls for this lame political gimmick. Then it will get what it deserves. The Right Wing as a whole knows its "out of touch". Knows it can't win off of "tradition" and "the good 'ol days", so not only did they CHANGE
(ironically) their ENTIRE CAMPAIGN PLATFORM to BARACK OBAMA'S message of "CHANGE". They did so only because of how successful it has been in the hearts and minds of the American public and because McSame has no platform of his own to run on (btw, they'll say change and then, ahem, "reform". I say "bull*****). JOHN MCCAIN VOTES WITH GEORGE BUSH 90% OF THE TIME. He wants to fight in Iraq. He wants to fight in Iran. And tonight in his speech he slightly admitted he wanted to fight in Russia. He's George W. Bush x 1000 when it comes to war. Disgusting.
I want ONE of his supporters to tell me: ]WHAT IS JOHN MCCAIN'S ECONOMIC POLICY?
(Because Obama has thoroughly laid his plan out. And I want even get into McCain's Healthcare and Education plans cause we know he doesn't even care about war veterans much less some poor kid dying of Hepatitis in New Orleans) So just tell me....
HOW DOES JOHN MCCAIN PLAN ON FIXING THE ECONOMY (getting it back working for the middle-class), GETTING IT BACK TO THE BALANCED BUDGET NEARING A SURPLUS THAT BILL CLINTON GAVE IT WHEN HE LEFT OFFICE?
ANYBODY?
I'm waiting....
quantman,
I am not opposed to this. A failure of Fannie and Freddie would be even more devastating.
If it works as you predict, I am much happier (and I will sleep better). If this does provide more liquidity, that is a definite positive.
I still have concerns about the effect on consumer confidence.
Thanks for the info and your perspective, quant!
Mark the time now......10:30 PM Pacifc....It is now over....
McCain/Palin have won....
McCain will not run in 2012....and then you have 8 more years of Palin/Jindal.
Sweet baby....life is good
DarienCrow:
Just look at the electoral map and do the math!
I realize you are a Conservative Republican and therefore very probably Math and Science challeged!
My regrets to you!
I am NOT going to do your homework for you, dude!
IF you are too stupid to do the math to get to 270 with what I said, then you are TOO stupid and nobody can help you!
Please go back to school and earn your degree again, along with Virginia Conservative, who I think would have no clue if any hard facts, or numbers hit his ass.
Hs is 100% soft analysis guy, with near 0 appreciation for real math, particularly stats.
I NEVER post my STATS, because unlike NATE I do not want to aid the enemy.
I think McCain will like my military style thinking!
Conservatives: Standing in the way of change since the invention of the word "conservative"!
Andy:
I have lived in the UK for 6 and the US for 8 years now and have followed both processes closely.
Americans and American media are far more open to sensationalist politics. I don't know if you have lived in the US before, but there's extreme media and societal hypocrisy when it comes to the treatment of minorities.
Example: On the day of the Palin pick, the first thought of John King (CNN) was whether she can manage being a mother of 5 and a VP. A week later the same guy, was claiming sexism.
Sexism and racism openly exist in the US, the same way they exist in the UK, but the media are openly being sexist to increase interest and TV ratings and then pretend "they" someone else carried that sexist message.
The extent to which the media are both the messenger and the decider in American elections is disturbing.
Politics in the UK can be very cutthroat and the journalist are far more provocative and opinionated but this is besides the point. Here in the US the media will cover anything for ratings and the journalists have little political education and guts.
One exception was the late Tim Russert who had the guts to openly admit that he did not question the Iraq war enough because he was caught in the emotion after 9/11.
TV Journalists here are spineless and are destroying the political process. And the people are dumb enough to believe them.
McCain is wasting his time and money in my state - Wisconsin. He has no chance here, not with the anti-war sentiment and the loss of jobs / crappy job market we have here. Everyone I know, including some real gun toting hicks who kill a lot of deer and voted twice for Bush, are going for Obama.
This state won't look like a sure thing for Obama until election day, but believe me, McCain is at his ceiling here, and cannot possibly win as long as we keep up the hard work and Obama doesn't gaffe. We have a ton of young population, and New black population in Southern Wisconsin who have moved up here from the Chicago/Rockford/Belvidere area, and we're a same-day registration state! Obama is gonna be at least a 5% victory here, no more of this <1% stuff.
If you support same day registration nationally, read this article:
http://www.velvetrevolution.us/electionstrikeforce/2008/05/legislation_introduced_allowin.html
Mr_President
Dang you nailed every single point. Spot on observations, I could not have said it any better. You speak the truth!
The reason the GOVT is taking over Freddie and Fannie vs. injecting capital is because of 1 MAJOR risk:
--- Real estate prices have NOT bottomed and we probably have at least another 5%-10% downside left. Not countryside, but in major markets like FL, CA, MI, CO, NV etc. Except for CA, many of these are swing states.
If foreclosures increase further, because banks are NOT aggressively restucturing their mortgage loan portfolios (because IF they did they would have to very large incremental losses NOW), then adjacent homeowners in every foreclosed subdevelopment would take further hits to the perceived value of their homes. THIS would have a cascading, dominoe effect down.
THIS IS WHAT NEEDS TO BE MITIGATED ASAP.
WILL IT WORK?
I THINK SO......IN ABOUT 3 YRS OR SO.
BUT THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES IN LIFE OR IN MARKETS.
Turn out the lights Lucille.....
Here is your math DUDE...
Obama will NOT win Florida
Obama will NOT win North Carolina
Obama will NOT win Virginia
Obama will NOT win Ohio
Obama will NOT win Indiana
Obama will NOT win Montana
Obama will NOT win Nevada
Obama will NOT win Colorado
If you think he will win any of these you are "HOPING".
Oh yeah and he won't win Missouri either and if you check HISTORY which happens to be my strongest subject you will find that they... ALWAYS PICK THE WINNER.
Enough math for you?
Darien Crow:
You are way too brilliant for me!
YOU Win!
I bow down in front of your awesome intelligence, oh learned one!
Please master, accept my apologies, for I have erred!!
YOU ROCK!!!
Here you go little fella:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mathematics
I want ONE of his supporters to tell me: WHAT IS JOHN MCCAIN'S ECONOMIC POLICY?
Not being a McCain supporter, but being someone who understands the basics of the philosophy, his basic economic policy is probably "Let the market decide"
My problem with this isn't with it as a philosophy...it is internally consistent. My problem with this is that Republicans say that they want the market to decide...but of course, they don't object to politically popular programs. But they still want to appease people's A) Self-image as rugged individuals, B) Immediate self-interest in terms of tax cuts.
Right now, the market is deciding that homes are over-priced, and is correcting.
Now, find me a Republican that can say that in a public speech.
Not to be TOO partisan, Democrats are obviously prone to pander economically as well.
He learned math at the creationist school where they censor the library books. They don't believe in science or math. The take pride in being ignorant. It's a requirement to be a RepubliCon.
Dariencrow:
Candidate height is also a traditional predictor: the taller candidate always wins.
Which is why we're voting to reelect Kerry, of course.
Like all Republicans Darien Crow took the states said, then added a few more states of his own to it, and then said my math would not hold!
That is how Republicans work.
Because science is not something they understand!
Stay in your church dude!
I am ot giving ANY clues or saying anything more than I said about the 4 states that I mentioned. YOU can add other states all you want!
It's free country......STILL!!!
Dear History Major!
shadowguidex:
I'm perfectly happy if he wants to waste his time here. That's time and money he could have spent in an actual swing state.
matthew,
I agree. By far the most troubling part of Obama's platform for me is he is worryingly protectionist in his economic rhetoric sometimes. But there really isn't a party that stands for pure "let the market decide" philosophy and follows through with it.
otf,
I don't like to call them "republicans," that can be a little degrading. Instead I prefer "reality-challenged individuals."
Sean, what are you, 14 or something? I've said it before and I'll say it again. Stick to polling. Leave the analysis to the pros. This is not a base vs. base election. This is a race for the middle. Sarah Plain and Tall was put on the ticket to appeal to women. That strategy lasted about one day before they realized it would not work. So they decided to make her Mrs. Base Holder. McCain spent his whole speech pretending he wasn't a Republican. Why do think that was? Whoever wins independents will win the election. Pull your head out of your conventional wisdom ass and read the polls you post every few hours.
Aa a local, NV is more pro-Obama than polls might indicate. Of course I live in the heart of Sin City itself so that might color my perceptions a little bit ;)
I'd like to see more polls out of Nevada though. And I always wonder the breakdown in terms of the counties/districts they're calling. That goes for all the states. I mean, you're more likely to get obama supporters in Vegas and Reno and Mccain supporters in, say, Elko or Ely or Ash Springs.
Dana... get another win indicator.
Bush beat both Gore and Kerry. They both tried to exploit the height difference. Since I'm 5'5" myself I could pull the Democrat whine about how politically incorrect you are to offend short people but I'm a real man.
How about that black dude offended by the use of the term "black hole"... now that was classic Dem whine. Don't own a black cat, order a Black Russian, or Black Ball anyone from a club. There would be hell to pay then.
Oh and yes... Bush DID beat Gore and Dems still whine about that one.
sniperct:
Nevada, as I recall, was very close during the 2004 election, but voter turnout was abysmal.
The trick to your state is getting all of Vegas to turn out en masse and really make their votes count. If turnout there increases by a few percentage points over 2004, Obama will come out on top. If turnout is expanded greatly, McCain might get embarrassed there.
Yeah Sniper you must live on the east side. I'm in Summerlin so yeah our worlds are totally different.
Republicans have to be the biggest practitioners of projection in existence. They've harped for a year about a guy being an inexperienced, cult-of-personality based only on speeches. Yet now they deify someone they couldn't have picked out of a lineup two weeks ago as a future two term president based upon a single speech written by and for someone else. Amazing.
Don't bother about turnout in any state where foreclosures are sky high!
Foreclosures in a state, hurts practically ALL by devaluing their home values big time!
SO, If there is ANY one reason why FL, NV could go for Obama, it would foreclosures, and its impact on home values, home equity etc.
McCain and PALIN have ZERO grounding in Economics and its impact on Consumers at large.
Neither does Karl Rove!
This situation as we speak is a whole lot different.
BUT, people who are weak in math will NOT get IT!
AND, that my Obama folks, IS the VERY best news you can have!!
Repubs do not get MATH!!
They are living in the churches!
Obama will NOT win Florida - Sure?
Obama will NOT win North Carolina - ok.
Obama will NOT win Virginia - Sure?
Obama will NOT win Ohio - Sure?
Obama will NOT win Indiana - ok.
Obama will NOT win Montana - ok.
Obama will NOT win Nevada - Sure?
Obama will NOT win Colorado - Sure?
If you think he will win any of these you are "HOPING".
Just contemplating the numbers we have. When you're 100 miles from the next gas station and you got 100 miles worth of gasoline, you'll make it there if you drive smart, not if you make assumptions and just gun it.
I'm glad than we have a new tracking poll with diageo-hotline.
Dude I'm agnostic and pro-choice. Don't pretend you know me. There are more issues than your little social problems.
My home has lost $200,000 in value and I bought at the peak of the market. I will have to refinance in 2 more years to avoid an adjustment. But guess what... it was my fault... not anyone else. So yeah if things don't turn I will lose alot but I'm not asking for anyone to bail me out and whine like a Democrat.
And I sure as hell won't vote for Obama because I'm paying too much for my house on a deal that I was happy to get.
Shadowguidex:
Well, that's the Repub strategy.
Take A, add B to it. Then A+ their invented B, together become a strawman for them.
Then they then proceed to destroy the strawman they created!
Finally, they say, LOOK: You were wrong!
quant (or anybody),
do you have any articles or places you would recommend to read up on the subprime crisis? I've done some reading, but nothing really indepth.
thx.
Darien Crow:
You just made my night and tomorrow's day!
$200K is all you LOST!!
YOU poor BABY!
Dude, your loss of $200K for the oil company execs or ex wall streeters like me, is frankly not a big issue.
Anyway, good luck to you.
I am in an a very very small neighborhood with some very very serious money in the Dallas, TX are and thanks to GW Bush himself, having moved here 3 yrs ago from Greenwich, CT (because my wife is a Repub Texan), I have no complaints about my home values, with a lot of celebrities here.
So, YOU just made my day!
I hope McCain wins and I get a lot more tax cuts. I will happily stride on to the bank and think of you!!!
GOD BLESS YOU MY FRIEND, as McCain (who has over $100M ) would say!
If Obama-Biden ticket wins in 2008- I'd like to see the Obama-Justice Department Prosecute Alaska Governor Sarah Palin on corruption charges.
Darien, another financially irresponsible Republican who doesn't know what he's doing. Fortunately his ignorance is limited to his own personal life. But listen to this from George:
"My country has lost $2 trliion in value and I was elected at the peak of the market in 2000. They will have to refinance in 2 more months to avoid a depression. But guess what... it was my fault... not anyone else. So yeah if things don't turn I will lose my place in history but I'm not asking for anyone to bail me out and whine like a Democrat."
Crow:
Yeah, I recently moved from dead center old Vegas (five minute drive from Downtown, about 2 minutes from north las vegas, house built in the 60s) farther east and south, over by Sam's Town. Probably the Sunrise Manor area? I don't know, I never paid attention to the distinctions. There was Vegas, North Las Vegas, Henderson, and Green Valley which we all called Richtown (went to high school near there, vocational/magnet school). Summerlin and all these other new places seemed to practically spring up overnight and made me scratch my head. (used to be two miles of desert going up Lake Mead Blvd towards the mountains and onto the lake..now the city goes right up to the foot of Frenchman's...and this was less than 10 years ago! Going out towards Charleston, and Red Rock, is a similar story. It kind of makes me sad. And my work moved to a new building in an area that used to be all desert like 3 years ago, too! The growth out here is astronomical.)
Summerlin is waaay different though. Was looking at some houses that way (but more towards Henderson, and some near where I was living) but no way would I be able to get a mortgage(well, and afford one anyway), so settled on an apartment.
So glad my parents were smart in their mortgage when they bought the house from my grandmother. (same family has lived in that house since it was built! Wife and I moved out because we wanted to add a fourth generation - and really really needed our own space.)
I don't know what to think about the freddie/fannie stuff yet. I listen to Marketplace on the way to work so I get SOME information on markets and stuff (I don't participate but I do believe in keeping informed, plus a lot of that stuff has proven to be helpful).
I'm thinking the markets will rally since they'll have had the weekend to adjust to the news(no more uncertainty factor), but I could be wrong.
I do have this to say about the conventions - Loved them. Even if I was yelling at the TV quite a bit during the republican convention!
Well I really haven't lost it out of pocket. The value went down because so many people have just walked away from their mortgage because they feel they are paying too much payment for the appraised value of the house.
It really sucks but I'm okay and glad you're doing well. :)
Toni,
It's a bit too late in the 7th or 8the inning.
PLus, sorry to come across as an elitist, but if you need education on this, then it is way too complex to get educated, because of very sophisticated derivatives, leveraging, hedge fund leverage and deleveraging.
Sorry to bust your chops but this is not something you pick up in a text book. I used to teach at night (while I was working in my 20's) at Business School in a University, so I really really wish I could help you.
I would suggest you focus on the long run, diversify, and have confidence that this too shall pass...............
UNLESS McCain wins, and we have a Israel/US vs. Iran war, and/or a let's see who blinks first with Putin/ Russia.
Putin is NOT somebody we should screw with when our economy, our $ and our energy situation, and extended military situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, is where is currently is!
DUMB, DUMB, DUMB!
I'd like to hear some answers on this.
We see over to the right that Begich has a 88% chance of beating Ted Stevens. But this is "Uncle Ted" - living legend, President Pro Temp Emeritus of the Senate.
Should Sarah Palin endorse Stevens?
Mike,
I think Sarah Palin should endorse Ted Stevens.
And, Ted Stevens should endorse Saran Palin (which he already has).
And, I think they should do a joint TV Ad and a Joint Presser.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rNZc37BLAo
Howard Stern on Sarah Palin.
Howard Stern should hire Trig Palin as one of his Wack Packs.
Sniper... I bought new construction right across the street from the Suncoast. I remember 10 years ago when I lived on the east side the buses didn't come this far because there was nothing here but desert.
I wonder how many bones were found out here from the mafia hits?
This is an amazing place to live. I lived in California all my life and struggled until I came here where there was real money.
We will be fine as soon as the property values secure... but there is so much money to be made here. If you can buy a house now is the time because it's hit rock bottom. My wife is a Real Estate Agent if you need any help. :)
The conventions this time were just the best I have ever seen and this election is so damn exciting I'm just glued to it all the time. It's gonna be really fun my fellow political junkies! :)
Quant, I think you misunderstood what I was asking. I'm not looking for investment advise... but just more of a better understanding/narrative on how we got here. I want to understand the dynamics that caused the collaspe in a broad sense. I know in the end it was about risky loans, but that's just the end result. I've googled before and just about a zillion entries came up. You seemed really knowledgable so I thought you could point me in the right direction of a good article or few to give me a better foundation of why this happened/is happening.
You elitist!
;-)
Darien Crow:
The ONLY reason Lieberman is always at McCain's side, is due to Israel.
His wife Hadassah and his second wife are undercover Israeli operatives (sorry, I cannot prove this).
His stake in this equation is elimination of the Iranian nuclear threat.
Unfortunately, without a total takeover of Iran (population 100 Million), this cannot be done, because the nuclear plutonium generating centrifuges are nearly 1 mile underground. THEY cannot be hit with any CONVENTIONAL weapons, including cluster bombs, or any kind of missiles etc.
Iranian mullahs will have no compunction whatsover sacrificing 2 Million or 3 Million (2%-3% of their population in any war effort). WHY? Because they sacrificed as much in their war against Iraq and Saddam Hussein.
So, IF McCain, please, please at least give some thought to selling your house, AND renting an 100% equivalent house for a few years.
I mean this totally, totally sincerely.
Toni,
OK then, sorry. Get Greenspan's latest book (nearly 1 yr old). It is simply awesome. Age of Turbulence.
Quantman,
Thanks I'll definately check it out.
And just because I'm a spineless liberbal so I have to make sure, I hope you know I was kidding about the elitist jibe.
:)
Darien Crow,
The airlines are cutting and will cut air capacity to LAS by 15%-20% in the next few months.
I am sorry, BUT how do YOU think LAS recovers with even 10% less visitors, given increase in room capacity, AND lower $ bets per table and per visitor in total.
PLease see Lehman Brothers' detailed analysis on this and also on Macau.
We are not very far from a major major bankruptcy of a major major LVS house!
JOBS, JOBS, JOBS.....drive housing in LVS. This will be a BIG, BIG, BIG problem for quite a few years to come.
I HOPE I am wrong for the sake of our country!
So you think I should bail out of my house? It's not like my wife and I have not talked about it.
We're paying a $550,000 payment on a house that would appraise for about $350,000 right now. Sucks don't it?
The Iran thing just scares the crap out of me and I know something will happen soon. I don't see any way possible for us to stay out of it. If we don't do something about it with strength we will certainly be blindsided eventually in weakness.
We have to protect Israel... we are sworn to do so. Did you hear Sarkosy the other day? Something will happen real soon.
dariencrow,
What do you think of Summerlin? Do you like it? I worked for the Architectural firm that designed it.
Toni,
I know. You had the smilee face next to it!
No probs, man. Cool!
Toni... we love it here. I'm in Queensridge if you know the area and Pulte built my home. :)
darien:
I love how its always "Dem whine" when all i see on TV is the McCain campaign with something new to say about how unfair that particular day is.
"The medias unfair! Obama's calling me too old! Everyone's mean to my attack dog VP! Liberal propaganda!" (real emphasis on the media crap, its been going on since the 80s, STFU you have fox news!)
I also love how you're oh so confident that all the states mentioned will never go for obama. if you're so good at math you should know that odds alone are favorable that at least one of those states will go for obama. and all he needs is one. to say that mccain will hold in every state is a hard task for him. Obama opted out of public finance remember? hes got more money than mccain and the game is to just dump money where ever mccain is not focused. its like playing a strategy game, you cant fortify EVERYTHING, youre bound to have a chink in the chain, and obama will find it. my money's om colorado because i have cousins there and he said EVERYONE ages 18-29 has obama fever! the untapped power of youth vote is going to have an impact.
We learned that after seven years, the GOP will still hump national tragedy for votes while criticizing the people who were most directly effected by that tragedy as elitist, east coast liberals. "Country First" my ass.
Also, we learned that John Kerry has an ax to grind, and the size of that ax would be a challenge for even Paul Bunyan to lift.
I think we also learned that John McCain was a POW. I hadn't heard.
Yeah, I hearD Sarkozy on that!
Bush/Cheney's October Surprise!
They won't do it! They will instigate Israel to do it, just like they got stupid Shaakasvili to do in the Georgian provinces.
BUT, our mass electorate would not get 1% of any of this stuff or the economics issues, or the economic tsunami GUARANTEED to hit us in 8-10 years due to the aging of our population and Soc. Sec and Medicare.
BUT, that's what we deserve, because our electorate and our politicians either don't get the math or simply ignore it.
I would consider leaving the house and dumping it on the bank. NOBODY will blame you for it in LVS, due to the macro problem in LVS. Par for the course, as they say.
Pass it off and start over. Don't take the hit, unless you are under 40 and have over $1 million in net assets.
FREE Advice. I will have no liability, implied or otherwise for this free, unsolicited advice.
That's good to know, I left the firm before the project was finished, but it's nice to hear it was a good design. It was the biggest project, in terms of scope, they had ever done. And I live in your old state, CA - Bay Area actually so I don't know Vegas at all other than a few times going to the Strip.
And I guess I shouldn't ask this since everybody seems to be getting along, but since you're Agnostic and Pro Choice how do you reconcile that with the religious faction that seems to be driving so much of the agenda of the Republicans Party? Or is that secondary to their foreign/domestic policies?
I'm not trying to be an ass, just curious.
The night at the Barackopolis helped out Obama probably more than McCain will be helped out by his night...from a presentation point of view. But McCain may have made a successful sell to the moderates on both sides of the aisle. We get our first look at the post-speech polls later today
Obama opted out of public finance remember? hes got more money than mccain and the game is to just dump money where ever mccain is not focused.
I don't know if it's that simple. One of the things that scared me the most about Palin is in energizing the base it also energized their pocketbooks. All that money will just be funnelled through/to 527's (I think that's what they're called) to beat the drum.
And Rove will do what he does best...
So I see some of you are out there in Nevada, the question I have is anecdotally how do you feel like the Independents are leaning out there. Democrats have added about 50,000 new registered voters to the rolls over the course of this year and the Republicans have added about 2,000 roughly and non-partisan registration is up about 8,000. Democrats now have about a 62,000 voter gap in party registration. 458,877 Democrats, 397,172 Republicans, 150,396 non partisan with some sprinkled in 3rd party on the current active rolls. Do the independents skew rightward enough to overcome that for the Republicans do you think?
"The ONLY reason Lieberman is always at McCain's side, is due to Israel.
His wife Hadassah and his second wife are undercover Israeli operatives (sorry, I cannot prove this).
His stake in this equation is elimination of the Iranian nuclear threat.
Unfortunately, without a total takeover of Iran (population 100 Million), this cannot be done, because the nuclear plutonium generating centrifuges are nearly 1 mile underground. THEY cannot be hit with any CONVENTIONAL weapons, including cluster bombs, or any kind of missiles etc.
Iranian mullahs will have no compunction whatsover sacrificing 2 Million or 3 Million (2%-3% of their population in any war effort). WHY? Because they sacrificed as much in their war against Iraq and Saddam Hussein."
Dude, I agree with your viewpoint, but your information here is really really inaccurate, and you're using way too much exaggeration to make your point.
1) Iran is only 70 million population, not 100 million.
2) USA has had the bunker busting and earthquake bomb technology to take out this facility since world war 2. Earthquake bombs don't even need to hit a target, they just need to fall near the target and the shockwaves they cause shake the ground so violently in the radius that they wreak havoc on the internals of the facility (precision equipment hate massive jolts).
3) The centrifuges do not produce plutonium, they enrich uranium to a sufficient degree to allow sustained fission. Plutonium is created in nuclear reactors by using enriched uranium. You got the wagon before the horse.
4) The centrifuges are not located a mile underground, they aren't even close to a mile underground. I assume you're talking about the Natanz facility, and here are the specs: Natanz is a hardened Fuel Enrichment Plant covering 100,000 square meters that is built 8 meters underground and protected by a concrete wall 2.5 meters thick, itself protected by another concrete wall. In 2004, the roof was hardened with reinforced concrete and covered with 22 meters of earth. The complex consists of two 25,000 square meter halls and a number of administrative buildings.
Anyway, I am in agreement with you, we should avoid war with them by whatever means we can find, but please don't make uninformed statements.
Any predictions for tomorrow's daily trackers (pathetic, I know)?
I say:
Rasmussen: 47-47 w/ leaners
Gallup: 47-46 Obama
Hi Toni,
Good question. I have always felt that pro-choice is the real conservative position.
To steal a phrase from someone we all know... for me to force any woman to have a child that is unwanted or will not be love and cared for is above my pay grade. I don't want to take care of anyone's children and it's none of my business. I do ask that it be done in the first trimester.
What is the alternative? I wouldn't want any woman using the coat hanger because of me and that's what would happen. So really, banning abortion is not an option and everyone knows this. It's just Democrats version of "scaring up some votes".
So it's really a non-issue for me.
I am a Capitolist and I just don't believe in anything that smells like socialism. Affirmative Action is racist and very wrong. You can't fix racism by enforcing racism.
We are taxed too much and it's really un-American to do it.
Remember how our country was born... our forefathers were blowing the heads off the British because they taxed our breakfast beverage. We don't like it and it's in our blood.
I just don't like big government.
That's why I'm Republican.
counsellorben said...
Cross-posting from the last thread (plus a link)
Possible Fannie/Freddie Takeover
If this rumor is true, it will have a seismic effect on consumer and investor confidence, and the economy will swamp all other issues in this election.
Again, if true, I fully expect that we will see the circuit breakers kick in when trading opens on Monday morning (first circuit breaker is for a 1,200 point decline in the Dow, second at 2,400, third at 3,600).
This September surprise would change the dynamics of this race beyond comprehension.
I can only hope that this turns out to be false, but unfortunately it has the ring of truth to me (having worked as an attorney in the mortgage industry).
September 5, 2008 11:50 PM
counsellorben,
Thanks for cross postin' this. I only had time earlier to post the story link and could not get into detail.
Nate,
Can you gives us your take on the Freddie / Fannie takeover in this mornings postings?
I'd like to see more for Obama so I can shrug off the Republican bounce, but for tomorrow I'm going with:
Gallup: Obama 48, McCain 47
Rasmussen: Obama 47, McCain 47
Call me crazy but as it pertains to the polling tomorrow im going with..
Gallup- 49O - 46M
Rasmussen- Who gives a shit but perhaps 48M - 47O
dariencrow:
"Remember how our country was born... our forefathers were blowing the heads off the British because they taxed our breakfast beverage. We don't like it and it's in our blood.
I just don't like big government.
That's why I'm Republican."
Dude, read a book! It isn't because Britain taxed us that we revolted, it's because they taxed us without allowing us to have any representation in their parliament. "No Taxation without representation". Moreover, if you open your history book and really study the basis for the original implementation of each and every tax, you might understand why they were created, why they exist, and what purpose they serve.
Instead of "Big Government", you want small, cheap, shitty government that does a half-assed job at everything, and with no regulations and no regulation enforcement the free market runs rampant, and we have to deal with constant panics (read the history books about all the stock market panics every couple years), we'd have to resort to the gold standard because the government would no longer be able to back the dollar. I'll keep the FDIC and the countless other programs that our government needs to pay for, and fully fund and enforce.
I know this comment may be a bit tangential for this site, but two questions.
1. What are the most recent polls on abortion, and the other 'culture wars' topics? I was wondering if Obama can straightforwardly paint Palin and Republicans as anti-choice or if he risks losing a significant numbers of Dems and Independents. I expect he wont lose African American pro-lifers, but what do i know.
2. How can you believe 'life begins at conception, and abortion is murder' and still support a rape/incest exemption? I asked on right-wing blogs, but they called me an atheist who couldnt condemn genocide. So i'll ask here. If you really think abortion is murder, how does the fact that the woman was raped change that fact? Do fetuses somehow change their moral status? I can see pragmatic arguments here, and arguments about competing moral claims, but if you believe abortion is MORALLY equivalent to killing a 30 year-old or a 1 year-old, and you've invested everything in MORAL arguments (and called the rest of us immoral), how does the rape exemption go? How is it consistent with the 'life begins at conception, abortion is murder' argument?
What i'm getting at - Palin's position is actually pretty coherent. But I dont think most Americans hold it (including most pro-lifers), so i suspect they arent as straightforwardly 'pro-life' as they say. Not that i think this is a good (i.e. winnable) argument for liberals to press... Any thoughts?
dariencrow: "I just don't like big government.
That's why I'm Republican."
shadowguidex: "Dude, read a book! It isn't because Britain taxed us that we revolted, it's because they taxed us without allowing us to have any representation in their parliament. 'No Taxation without representation'."
I think we've figured out the real reason why dariencrow is a Republican.
By the way, Reagan didn't say government was the problem; he argued that we should make government part of the solution.
Toni,
A great blog for understanding the whole sub-prime and housing market crisis is:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/
the Diageo polling method is interesting. By reading their site I understand they do not adjust raw polled data to assumed, still polled, party affiliation distribution. I have become extremely dubios about affiliation adjusted polls for few reasons:
1 they adjust a poll with data from a second poll. So they run a very heavy risk of multiplying errors incurred in the party affiliation polling process. Basically they poll party affiliation first, this will be treated as the adjustement basis. Second they poll election inentions. If they imbed an error in the first step the induced effect on the second step is a multiplicator and not just a sum.
2 Party affiliation data has tremendous variations, so heavy to make me think something is wrong in the whole data colection process.
3 If adjustments to (electoral)polls are to be made they should not be made based upon other polled data (party affiliation). The only legitimate adjustement would be about objective traits in the population: race, gender, incomne (not polled income however).
4 The two step polling process (poll the adjustement base and then poll the opinion) overweighs the bounces due to mediatic visibility becuse of the above mentioned multiplicator. This is the reason, I believe, past elections polls, have shown huge (and impossible) post convention bounces.
So Diageo is welcome in the sense that it is differently constructed.
Here is what I think people will remember from convention season come November 4th. (For better or worse)
From Denver
The Clinton's support of Obama, and the Obama's speech, or at least the staging of it.
From St Paul
Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin, Sarah Palin, oh and John McCain's speech or at least the staging of it.
So whats worse to have behind you- Greek Columns or a Green Screen made up from the wrong picture?
I think in some ways thats the conclusion of the Conventions- both parties have unified and electrified bases, can they keep those together, whilst appealing to the center?
I think in a sense one other thing has become apparent in the last couple of weeks, which might not matter too much, but might matter a lot. There is a wide disparity between the levels of organisation in the campaigns. The Obama campaign has been fairly well organised- its VP pick was done sensibly and calmly. A redoutable fighter was picked, everybody knew him, and he already looks like the hatchet man number 2. It organised a stadium for the final night of the convention and pulled off the whole night very well.
The McCain camp didn't even think of the its eventual VP candidate till very late, picked someone no-one really knows much about, including many important people in the party, simply to stave off the result of picking the one person the candidate really wanted. It completely messed up the back drop of the stage, especially during the candidates speech, and couldn't keep protestors out of the arena, despite the fact there were 60,000 fewer people at the candidates speech compared to the Democratic candidate's. The Republican message has changed or been turned on its head 2 or 3 times within a fortnight. And its VP candidate is shortly headed back to Alaska for a mass cramming session so she is capable of appearing on national TV on her own.
Now all of that might not matter too much, except that think about it, almost all of the time the most organised campaign, with the clearest message, wins. Its not a sword in the heart of the McCain camp yet, but they do need a focus message thats going to appeal to people.
Mike Huckabee said it best- the preidency isn't a position for symbolism. Be it the first african American President, or a man of honour and courage who survived 5 years as a POW, they are going to have to win it by showing how they are going to affect people's lives.
dammit, I just wrote a huge post and it hasn't posted :(
Anyway, lets try again. I had a look at the Repuclican Primaries. I'm assuming that since Huckabee & Palin are both out there in the same religious fringe, that if States went heavily for Huckabee in the Primaries/Caucuses then they will like Palin. If States went heavily Romney, they will not. McCain, Paul etc are neutral. Obviously there was some "anti-mccain" voting as well, but I think it gives an indication of which way they might trend.
Kerry swing states
Michigan & New Hampshire. Both went for Romney much stronger than for Huckabee, by approx 20%. They are more likely to stay Blue now I think.
Bush swing states (1)
Iowa & New Mexico. Iowa went narrowly Huckabee over Romney (McCain nowhere), no data on New Mexico. I tend to think both are very likely to go Blue, McCain being the big crippling factor in Iowa (Obama pulling to double digit leads).
Bush swing States (2). These are the true swingers I think - win 1 of them and Obama wins the election.
Ohio&Virginia. Both voted considerably more (~35%) for Huckabee than Romney. Likely to be a net boost for McCain.
Colorado/Nevada. Both went for Romney, massively more than either McCain or (by 48%) Huckabee. This should boost Obama.
North Dakota & Montana (Obama would need both). Both went for Romney, by approx 20% more than Huckabee. This should put them even more into play.
Florida. McCain won, narrowly. Romney was 18% ahead of Huckabee. This should help Obama.
Overall? The Kerry States are heading away and I don't think Iowa & New Mexico are really in play. This means McCain needs to hold all 6 of the other Obama options. This benefits him in 2 based on this analysis, hurts him in 2 others and really, REALLY hurts him in the Mid West.
Overall, again based on this analysis, this is actually a net positive for Obama in the multiple swing States.
zzzz, dawolf.
long posts make me yawn
Palin's picture was too big
now my head hurts.
I attempted to watch Palin’s speech on YouTube, but I just had to stop it! I couldn’t see her as anything but a last pick—an insult… “Just to win an election you would pick anybody to be your VP?” I don’t like politics first and foremost, it doesn’t seem like anyone is truly concerned about “we the people” they are only concerned with building their resume, or flaunting their resume. I also don’t understand how some people are stuck on their party! What is that all about, “if your candidate says something that makes no sense, could risk peoples lives, take more money from where it needs to go, and leaves more people sick without healthcare, HELLO!!! Wake up, my only issue is that we start voting for the best candidate and start with a blank slate, remove the fact that your Daddy was… or your best friend… whatever the case may be… WAKE UP! And if people voted for Bush because of his “Christian beliefs,” Jesus Christ Himself was nothing but pro-choice, because we are saved by grace, and he would never take our choice away to make our own decisions, it’s in the BIBLE! So please stop trying to control other people, you can only control yourself… SM
Is that a troll ^^ I see before me?
Instead of "Big Government", you want small, cheap, shitty government that does a half-assed job at everything, and with no regulations and no regulation enforcement the free market runs rampant, and we have to deal with constant panics (read the history books about all the stock market panics every couple years), we'd have to resort to the gold standard because the government would no longer be able to back the dollar.
Sounds a lot like India, actually.
And furthermore, people like that want the country to be like that because they believe they'll be rich(er) in it than the others who suffer as a result.
Sad, really.
Sarah Palin has performed one vital service: letting us know what an Alaskan accent sounds like.
Hmm, looks like the GOP is the "all talk" party when it comes to openness, accessibility, and transparency. If McCain was truly serious about being responsive to the American public, he'd let Palin answer questions.
My biggest problem with Palin isn't troopergate, or wanting to ban books, or even the massive popularity she got in Alaska for giving her constituents a billion dollars in oil money that came from the other 49 states (Alaska first, Alaska always). No, it's how easily she lied to the American people Wednesday night about her record (the claim that she said "no thanks" to the Bridge to Nowhere) and Obama's (saying that he hadn't authored any legislation). This is supposed to be the party of righteous reformers?
Anyway, I'm off to spend the morning canvassing for Obama.
da wolf, the biggest problem with any analysis of possible general election voting that is based on primary voting is that well its hugely flawed.
I would expect just about anyone who voted for Romney, Huckabee or for that matter any Republican in the primaries is liely to vote for McCain (except for a few Paul nutjobs). And anyone who voted for Clinton, Edwards, Richardson or any other Democrat is going to vote for Obama. Not only thst but turnout is much lower in primaries than in the general, typically.
My view is that Palin, at the moment, has probably taken the possibility of a massive landslide off the table, save for a very strange anomaly in the polling thats caused by the Bradley Effect, a huge black turnout or a high youth vote, that the polls are ignoring right now. But beyond that I don't think much has changed recently. I would say almost any result between a comfortable Obama win to a very very small McCain win are possible. I think there is far too much that could happen ths year between now and November to call it more than that right now.
@markymark
I accept that it isn't anywhere close to ideal. What I am assuming though is that the voters for each in the Primaries represent a broader constituency of voters in the General in the same State. Specifically, if a Primary went heavily Romney I would asusme that they have economic questions: if a State went heavily Huckabee I would assume there are a lot of right-wing evangelicals voting.
"Overall, again based on this analysis, this is actually a net positive for Obama in the multiple swing States."
Good analysis. Not perfect, obviously, but I think polls coming out over the next few weeks will show that there's some effect there.
Speaking of polls, why so few polls for Missouri? I want to know if it has swung back to a swing state, or if it is a save McCain seat.
What I learned...or maybe confirmed what I knew beforehand...
Democrats should have given McCain no respect and should have hammered him more. In particular, the Webb G.I. bill. Obama did so at the VFW in front of a partisan Republican audience. There was no excuse for not bringing it up during his acceptance speech. Instead it was Tammy Duckworth and Chet Edwards who brought it up. But the netwroks didn't carry it. Obama also should have mentioned his christian faith.
The Republican convention was basically a repeat of 2004. They attempted to drag the Dem nominee down with juvenile attacks, while propping up their nominee. The difference is that Kerry recieved no bounce from his convention, while Bush was ahead by double digits following his. This time Obama recieved a significant bounce, McCain is either tied or behind.
These conventions also proved once again that Republicans would turn 9/11 into a Theme Park ride if they could. That so-called "tribute" video was one of the disgusting political acts I've ever seem. Sick.
"My view is that Palin, at the moment, has probably taken the possibility of a massive landslide off the table..."
Really? I think she's one gaffe away from killing McCain's chances. Sure, maybe the Evangelicals will vote McCain / Palin no matter what, but that can only win you so many states.
She has a Macaca moment, a Potatoe moment, or gets called out for some of her 'misstatements' during the debate and she could lose the moderates and the independents. And that could mean the loss of half a dozen states, or more.
"These conventions also proved once again that Republicans would turn 9/11 into a Theme Park ride if they could. That so-called "tribute" video was one of the disgusting political acts I've ever seem. Sick."
Agreed. If the media wasn't so scared of being accused of having a liberal bias, that should have been enough to sink McCain's chances.
ref potential landslide:
it's still there. Kerry+Iowa+New Mexico is very likely.
Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Montana, North Dakota, Virginia & Florida are all heavily in play. That's a landslide right there. Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina would put a huge heap of icing on the top.
McCain can't win in a landslide IMO. Obama can. That reflects that the median result is something like Obama 300.
it's a good question. Why is the media so scared of the Republicans and being called liberal? They're not - they're letting themselves get gamed by little children and I can't understand why.
Where are the articles comparing McCain "I will not use my POW experience for political gain" (or words to that effect) and what he's been doing for weeks?
DarienCrow said:
"I just don't like big government.
That's why I'm Republican."
This made me spit my coffee on my computer laughing so hard. The government has grown more during the GOP administrations, especielly GWB.
PS - Sorry about your house. Sucks to be the last one in on a Ponzi scheme.
Nate, I heard you this morning on NPR radio. Good job!
Sean, nice summary.
Obama's words were compelling to me (but I was already on his side): the Republican election was all stories, no issues, "didn't talk about 'you'"; a high-level McCain staffer (I forgot who) said the election would be about personalities.
The Democrats can and should get it back to issues. However, it should be noted that to many of us Obama does have a nice personality and the Obama family is very appealing.
Rasmussen know has it that Palin is more popular than Obama. How nuch significance does this inlight have ? I've done some google-trends for Obama, Mccain, Palin, Biden, I know it's not serious but maybe I've obtained at least one point. The above trends confirm that Palin was indeed the most searched amongst the above. Not satisfied I tried some other matchups and finally I typed Bristol, Barack. Both of these are quite uncommon names so I assume that any Bristol or Barack search was indeed intended to Bristol Palin and Barack Obama. Astonishingly Bristol is more popular than Obama. Try it out at Google-trends.
My prediction for today:
There will be no tennis played at the US Open :(
I am in CT and it is raining...raining....raining....
Keith Olbermann Castigates RNC 9/11 “Tribute” Video
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/05/a-visibly-upset-keith-olbermann-castigates-rnc-911-tribute-video/
Troopergate: A devastating exposé
ABC investigative journalist Brian Ross digs into the Troopergate story and comes to one obvious conclusion: Palin clearly lied about her involvement.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/05/troopergate-a-devastating-expose/
@cora
popularity is not shown by google trends, it really isn't.
As for Bristol - you do realise that their is a Bristol in England, right?
Or Maybe Bristol, TN.
to Quantman: Hey, don't post detailed authoritative-sounding insider technical info if you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.
"nuclear plutonium generating centrifuges"? WTF? I won't bother people with the technical details, but plutonium is not made in centrifuges, and is not purified in them either. U235 is purified in centrifuges. I suspect all the rest of your info is equally reliable./mbw
Unemployment Shoots Up to a 5-Year High
New government figures show that unemployment is now at 6.1%, the highest level in five years.
Thank you George W.
Today's Rasmussen
Obama - 49
McCain - 46
Looks like the shiny new toy has lost it's luster
DarianCrow:
Where are you getting all those new voters? This election has been going on for over a year... if you are not on that Obama train by now you will never leave the station.
I realize that one anecdote doesn't represent the entire nation, but I was in the Obama campaign office for Durham NC a few days ago and asked one of the field operators how many registrations they were getting. He showed me a stack of about 600 and told me that was from the previous two days. He said they had just delivered to the BOE about two thousand registrations from the weekend, and the stack I saw was the remnant they hadn't finished data entry on yet. That's one of 17 campaign offices in the state.
As it happens, I agree with you that Obama has very little chance of winning NC. That isn't making anyone work any less hard. If it weren't for Hanna rains I would right now be on my way to a registration drive in a rural neighboring county. I'm hoping the rain slows down so I can go out this afternoon.
Obama up by 3 in Rasmussen.
Let´s see Gallup.
I love Rasmussen for the fact that I know they release figures at 9:30 am every morning
Gallup releases around 1PM as late as 2PM
Anyone know if Hotline has a release schedule.
That's up 1 since yesterday for Obama, no change for McCain.
High water mark?
Rasmussen: OBAMA 49% - McCain 46%
FUCK YEAH!!!
If Obama is at 49% according to Ras when 2/3 of the poll is post Plain's speech, this surely can't be good news for McCain.
Obama at 49% *after* Palin's speech? Yikes!
cs strowbridge,
I inserted the 'at the moment' part of my thought deliberately. Without a gaffe, I think a proper landslide is off the table- the right wing base is enthused enough now. I kind of think that short of an awful revelation coming out, that actually the right would stick up and stick with her, even a 'macaca' style gaffe.
I think the interesting moment comes when someone tries to explore her views. I actually think its a mistake to hide her away, I think she should be put in front of Brokaw and Stephanopoulous so that she can talk about things, because people want to know what she thinks, and if she doesn't come out and say things, the press will find them out, and won't put a nice spin on them.
Someone mentioned the GI bill, its a tricky thin to hit McCain on because of his history, but I think its one area that McCain can be tied to Bush on succesfully, needs to be done artfully though. And I certainly think it could result in an interesting debate question, and a debate hit on McCain something along the lines of 'not every vet is fortunate enough to marry money when they return from duty' or something like that.
I think that in the end this election comes down to issues and if the Democratic Party focusses on what they will do for voters then I think they win. Keep focussed on what they will do. Actually that is what worries me about Palin, she is a distraction, and for the most part the Obama-Biden ticket needs to ignore her, or at least the kerfuffle around her and her background.
Nice bounce, Maverick!
that Rasmussen is a very good figure for Obama. That now contains 2 days worth of Palin data, and Obama increased his lead from yesterday. This is after he's fiddled with his registration numbers to help the Republicans.
Da Wolf,
please do it yourself. Barack, Bristol. Only US. Only last 30 days. Britol shoots up from O just after the Palin nomination.
I agree it's nonsense. The point is that even Rasmussen's argument is.
If anyone is interested, here are some current estimates of the daily tracking numbers for Rasmussen:
Obama
09/06/08 | estimated daily result: 49.50, predicted average: 48.79, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
09/05/08 | estimated daily result: 47.89, predicted average: 48.35, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
09/04/08 | estimated daily result: 48.97, predicted average: 49.71, rounded predicted average: 50, rounded real average: 50
09/03/08 | estimated daily result: 48.20, predicted average: 50.12, rounded predicted average: 50, rounded real average: 50
09/02/08 | estimated daily result: 51.96, predicted average: 50.57, rounded predicted average: 51, rounded real average: 51
09/01/08 | estimated daily result: 50.20, predicted average: 49.21, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
08/31/08 | estimated daily result: 49.55, predicted average: 49.03, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
08/30/08 | estimated daily result: 47.89, predicted average: 48.94, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
08/29/08 | estimated daily result: 49.66, predicted average: 48.77, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
08/28/08 | estimated daily result: 49.26, predicted average: 47.10, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/27/08 | estimated daily result: 47.39, predicted average: 46.09, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/26/08 | estimated daily result: 44.66, predicted average: 46.24, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/25/08 | estimated daily result: 46.21, predicted average: 47.76, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/24/08 | estimated daily result: 47.87, predicted average: 47.96, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/23/08 | estimated daily result: 49.20, predicted average: 47.96, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/22/08 | estimated daily result: 46.82, predicted average: 47.33, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/21/08 | estimated daily result: 47.86, predicted average: 47.60, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/20/08 | estimated daily result: 47.31, predicted average: 47.14, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/19/08 | estimated daily result: 47.61, predicted average: 47.17, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/18/08 | estimated daily result: 46.50, predicted average: 46.87, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/17/08 | estimated daily result: 47.41, predicted average: 46.87, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/16/08 | estimated daily result: 46.70, predicted average: 46.34, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/15/08 | estimated daily result: 46.51, predicted average: 46.82, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/14/08 | estimated daily result: 45.83, predicted average: 47.12, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/13/08 | estimated daily result: 48.12, predicted average: 47.85, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/12/08 | estimated daily result: 47.40, predicted average: 48.12, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/11/08 | estimated daily result: 48.02, predicted average: 48.02, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/10/08 | estimated daily result: 48.95, predicted average: 47.61, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
08/09/08 | estimated daily result: 47.08, predicted average: 46.50, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/08/08 | estimated daily result: 46.79, predicted average: 46.89, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/07/08 | estimated daily result: 45.62, predicted average: 46.96, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/06/08 | estimated daily result: 48.25, predicted average: 46.88, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/05/08 | estimated daily result: 47.01, predicted average: 46.17, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/04/08 | estimated daily result: 45.37, predicted average: 46.23, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/03/08 | estimated daily result: 46.12, predicted average: 46.71, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/02/08 | estimated daily result: 47.19, predicted average: 47.00, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/01/08 | estimated daily result: 46.83, predicted average: 47.37, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/31/08 | estimated daily result: 46.98, predicted average: 47.74, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
07/30/08 | estimated daily result: 48.29, predicted average: 47.75, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
07/29/08 | estimated daily result: 47.94, predicted average: 47.45, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/28/08 | estimated daily result: 47.03, predicted average: 47.90, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
07/27/08 | estimated daily result: 47.38, predicted average: 48.75, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
07/26/08 | estimated daily result: 49.30, predicted average: 49.14, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
07/25/08 | estimated daily result: 49.57, predicted average: 48.91, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
07/24/08 | estimated daily result: 48.56, predicted average: 47.95, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
07/23/08 | estimated daily result: 48.61, predicted average: 46.96, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/22/08 | estimated daily result: 46.69, predicted average: 46.19, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/21/08 | estimated daily result: 45.57, predicted average: 46.08, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/20/08 | estimated daily result: 46.32, predicted average: 46.76, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/19/08 | estimated daily result: 46.36, predicted average: 46.30, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/18/08 | estimated daily result: 47.59, predicted average: 46.71, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/17/08 | estimated daily result: 44.97, predicted average: 46.46, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/16/08 | estimated daily result: 47.57, predicted average: 47.63, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
07/15/08 | estimated daily result: 46.83, predicted average: 47.10, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/14/08 | estimated daily result: 48.50, predicted average: 46.96, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/13/08 | estimated daily result: 45.96, predicted average: 46.22, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/12/08 | estimated daily result: 46.43, predicted average: 46.85, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/11/08 | estimated daily result: 46.27, predicted average: 47.11, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
07/10/08 | estimated daily result: 47.85, predicted average: 47.89, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
07/09/08 | estimated daily result: 47.23, predicted average: 48.14, rounded predicted average: 48, rounded real average: 48
07/08/08 | estimated daily result: 48.59, predicted average: 48.83, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
07/07/08 | estimated daily result: 48.60, predicted average: 49.01, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
07/06/08 | estimated daily result: 49.31, predicted average: 49.01, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
07/05/08 | estimated daily result: 49.13, predicted average: 49.01, rounded predicted average: 49, rounded real average: 49
McCain
09/06/08 | estimated daily result: 45.90, predicted average: 46.01, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
09/05/08 | estimated daily result: 46.35, predicted average: 45.88, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
09/04/08 | estimated daily result: 45.77, predicted average: 45.13, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
09/03/08 | estimated daily result: 45.53, predicted average: 44.90, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
09/02/08 | estimated daily result: 44.10, predicted average: 45.20, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
09/01/08 | estimated daily result: 45.07, predicted average: 45.95, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/31/08 | estimated daily result: 46.43, predicted average: 45.71, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/30/08 | estimated daily result: 46.36, predicted average: 45.17, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/29/08 | estimated daily result: 44.35, predicted average: 45.34, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/28/08 | estimated daily result: 44.81, predicted average: 46.63, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/27/08 | estimated daily result: 46.85, predicted average: 46.92, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/26/08 | estimated daily result: 48.23, predicted average: 46.06, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/25/08 | estimated daily result: 45.68, predicted average: 45.09, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/24/08 | estimated daily result: 44.27, predicted average: 45.08, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/23/08 | estimated daily result: 45.32, predicted average: 45.80, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/22/08 | estimated daily result: 45.66, predicted average: 46.13, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/21/08 | estimated daily result: 46.44, predicted average: 45.95, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/20/08 | estimated daily result: 46.31, predicted average: 45.80, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/19/08 | estimated daily result: 45.10, predicted average: 45.40, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/18/08 | estimated daily result: 46.00, predicted average: 45.66, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/17/08 | estimated daily result: 45.09, predicted average: 45.07, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/16/08 | estimated daily result: 45.90, predicted average: 45.10, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/15/08 | estimated daily result: 44.22, predicted average: 45.07, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
08/14/08 | estimated daily result: 45.16, predicted average: 45.84, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/13/08 | estimated daily result: 45.82, predicted average: 46.08, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/12/08 | estimated daily result: 46.54, predicted average: 45.94, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/11/08 | estimated daily result: 45.86, predicted average: 45.98, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/10/08 | estimated daily result: 45.42, predicted average: 46.19, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/09/08 | estimated daily result: 46.65, predicted average: 46.68, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/08/08 | estimated daily result: 46.50, predicted average: 46.10, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/07/08 | estimated daily result: 46.90, predicted average: 45.99, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/06/08 | estimated daily result: 44.92, predicted average: 46.14, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/05/08 | estimated daily result: 46.14, predicted average: 46.84, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/04/08 | estimated daily result: 47.35, predicted average: 46.82, rounded predicted average: 47, rounded real average: 47
08/03/08 | estimated daily result: 47.02, predicted average: 46.22, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/02/08 | estimated daily result: 46.10, predicted average: 45.95, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
08/01/08 | estimated daily result: 45.53, predicted average: 45.91, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/31/08 | estimated daily result: 46.21, predicted average: 46.05, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/30/08 | estimated daily result: 45.99, predicted average: 46.02, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/29/08 | estimated daily result: 45.94, predicted average: 45.92, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/28/08 | estimated daily result: 46.14, predicted average: 44.98, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/27/08 | estimated daily result: 45.68, predicted average: 43.97, rounded predicted average: 44, rounded real average: 44
07/26/08 | estimated daily result: 43.11, predicted average: 43.35, rounded predicted average: 43, rounded real average: 43
07/25/08 | estimated daily result: 43.10, predicted average: 43.87, rounded predicted average: 44, rounded real average: 44
07/24/08 | estimated daily result: 43.85, predicted average: 44.88, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/23/08 | estimated daily result: 44.66, predicted average: 45.34, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/22/08 | estimated daily result: 46.13, predicted average: 45.60, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/21/08 | estimated daily result: 45.24, predicted average: 45.14, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/20/08 | estimated daily result: 45.44, predicted average: 45.21, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/19/08 | estimated daily result: 44.75, predicted average: 45.78, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/18/08 | estimated daily result: 45.44, predicted average: 46.08, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/17/08 | estimated daily result: 47.13, predicted average: 45.86, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/16/08 | estimated daily result: 45.65, predicted average: 45.09, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/15/08 | estimated daily result: 44.79, predicted average: 45.15, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/14/08 | estimated daily result: 44.84, predicted average: 45.86, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/13/08 | estimated daily result: 45.81, predicted average: 45.99, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/12/08 | estimated daily result: 46.93, predicted average: 45.90, rounded predicted average: 46, rounded real average: 46
07/11/08 | estimated daily result: 45.22, predicted average: 45.25, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/10/08 | estimated daily result: 45.55, predicted average: 44.79, rounded predicted average: 45, rounded real average: 45
07/09/08 | estimated daily result: 44.98, predicted average: 43.96, rounded predicted average: 44, rounded real average: 44
07/08/08 | estimated daily result: 43.84, predicted average: 43.38, rounded predicted average: 43, rounded real average: 43
07/07/08 | estimated daily result: 43.05, predicted average: 43.87, rounded predicted average: 44, rounded real average: 44
07/06/08 | estimated daily result: 43.24, predicted average: 43.87, rounded predicted average: 44, rounded real average: 44
07/05/08 | estimated daily result: 45.33, predicted average: 43.87, rounded predicted average: 44, rounded real average: 44
PorridgeGun, didn't you watch McCain's speech? It's spelled "Mavrick". ;-)
Quick warning on the Ras poll, the day that has been dropped was a McCain plus 2 day (if Nate's numbers are right), and tomorrow Obama loses a plus 6 day. The bounce might be more evident tomorrow. If not then we can get a bit more excited about things.
Wow you hypocrites! Obama didn't get his damn bounce til the MONDAY AFTER THE CONVENTION!!!!!
And look at you liberals saying McCain didn't get a bounce.... WAIT TIL MONDAY!
Wow you folks are hilarious.
@cora
but it really doesn't matter. You don't show popularity through google trends, what you see are day to day interest or something like that. You can guarantee a lot of people were searching for Bristol out of interests sake not because they are big fans of hers (and seriously, why would anyone be a fan of tennage pregancy?)
McCain isn´t stupid. He didn´t say "my policies are the same that Bush policies", but it´s obvious that it ts.
I don´t like liberals, but a McCain administrarion continues the Bush issues.
And the unemployment shoots up to a 5-Year High. Thanks president Bush!.
I'm finding that the biggest critics of Palin happened to be women.
Abolutely. And if the Palin pick creates an identical but opposite sentiment in men and women as far as how they vote, I'd choose to be an the side of the women sentiment, since they are about 52-53% of the electorate.
"Wow you hypocrites! Obama didn't get his damn bounce til the MONDAY AFTER THE CONVENTION!!!!!"
Look at the historic data. The big day for Obama was the 29th where he went from even to +4. That was the day after the convention. It peaked on Monday, yes, but the bounce really happened that day.
What changed? Clinton supporters came on board. What changed at the RNC to make a difference?
Jeremy said...
PorridgeGun, didn't you watch McCain's speech? It's spelled "Mavrick".
LOL
Umm Michael. Obama was +4 this day last week and peaked at +5 on Tuesday. McCain is down by 3.
Your point?
Hssssssssssss -- what's that sound?
THUNDERCRACK -- Hillary's back.
This time she's gonna let Palin know how she really feels.
She's not going to attack Sarah Palin directly.
Oh and the Gallup bump also started on Thursday and peaked on Friday with the 8 point lead.
This isn't to say that McCain can't somehow make a bounce appear tomorrow, but the RNC at least doesn't seem to be a game changer as of yet. (And yes, I did just knock on wood after typing that.)
@Michael
Wow you hypocrites! Obama didn't get his damn bounce til the MONDAY AFTER THE CONVENTION!!!!!
that's...oh what's the word...a lie.
The convention finished on the 28th. On the 28th Rasmussen showed (with leaners) McCain and Obama even @ 47%.
Two days later, the score with leaners was 49/45 for +4 Obama.
The Republican Convention finished on the 4th. On the 4th, Rasmussen showed 45/50 for Obama +5. Rasmussen is now showing Obama 46/49 for Obama +3.
The first numbers are those of the morning before the final speech btw.
Or to put it another way: Obama went up 4, McCain so far up 2 in the same polling periods. Right at the end of the Republican Convention - normally a high water mark (see Nates work on Convention bounces), McCain is still a large margin behind with a biased poller.
UMMM Obama was up what 6 points in this poll last week, it's down to 3. So +3 for McCain.
You guys are so quick to jump on these polls it's not even funny. The day of Palin's speech consisted of the NEGATIVE attacks on Palin.
If tomorrow Obama is still up 3, then it's a call for concern, but c-mon folks, don't be to quick to jump on these polls.
Monday will be the good barometer.
It is almost insulting to think that Republicans believe Americans are that stupid. Then again, they are Republicans.
And then again, they are Americans.
Republicans believe that a huge swath of American voters were stupid because a huge swath of American voters are stupid.
Da Wolf,
the point is Rasmusses confuses popularity and recognition. As in the party affiliation numbers they like to fiddle things around. Well said.
Micahel, the difference is McCain had the Palin announcement to step on the DNC convention, Gustav talk (it was a Cat 4 at this point), the upcoming RNC, etc.
Although I agree with you that it's too early to tell yet. If it isn't better tomorrow, the voters have all the information they are going to get for a while and McCain WILL be in DEEP trouble.
It will be hard for Obama to maintain his +3 tomorrow because a healthy day for Obama drops from the tracker, but stil a +1 or +2 Obama tomorrow with the FULL RNC convention in it would be telling.
Obama got a bounce alright. Heading into the Democratic Convention, he was behind McCain, 46% - 44%. Then he surged into the lead after Hillary's speech, 48/49% - 41/42%.
On Monday, Obama hit 50% for the first time in both Gallup and Rasmussen trackers. Then the Republican convention resumed.
I know, I know, reality has a liberal bias.
Scott Rasmussen and the guy who runs Gallup said last night in an interview that the full effect of the RNC won't be known until at least Monday, and as late as Wednesday. No need to over react yet.
Also, I find it funny when people call Rasmussen a biased pollster.
"UMMM Obama was up what 6 points in this poll last week, it's down to 3. So +3 for McCain."
No, Obama was up 4 points in this poll last week. He peaked at 6 in the height of the baby "scandal" but barring a major change tomorrow or Monday, it's looking like the Palin speech just managed to get herself back to no harm and all of the damage control on that pick might have distracted the convention enough to lower her bounce.
@Michael
If it's +3 for McCain then it's +6 for Obama, assuming they came into the convention tied (which it was post Biden).
Any way you cut the data, the current data has a large amount of the Republican Convention bounce in it (since McCains speech was so poor). If it comes out in a weeks time and Obama is still +3, then he can consider it a good couple of weeks as he was generally ~+1.5 beforehand and Rasmussen has crippled him by about that.
Actually, I think he should consider that it was a good couple of weeks anyway as - well, it was.
-Biden pick (not Hillary anti-bounce)
+Michelle Obama's speech
+Hillary's speech
+Bill's speech
+Biden's speech
+Obama's speech
-Palin pick (Evangelical bounce)
-Palin speech
+Palin unvetted by McCain
+Palin unqualified
+Palin scandal-ridden
+-McCain speech (not sure whether it'll bounce or anti-bounce)
-McCain attack on Media that's makes them curl up like cowards
That's a lot of good events for Obama overall.
Conservative thought -
socialize the losses
privitize the gains
And yes, I do agree that we shouldn't overreact to movement within the MoE, but it's the only data we have so it's hard not to.
There's still a chance that McCain will see a bounce come Monday or Tuesday. What's becoming obvious is that after the bounce, the best McCain can hope for is a tie or a tiny lead, and then the bounce, being a bounce, will fade.
What I was looking for - and scared to see - was evidence of a changed race, of a McCain up 3 or something. That hasn't happened, at least not yet. Doesn't mean that it couldn't, but at least it hasn't yet.
Andy
"The thing I love about American politics (I'm from the UK) is the way one of Obama's main considerations when dealing with Sarah Palin's emergence is not to attack her too much in case it offends women voters. That sort of thing wouldn't happen in any other country."
When I was in the UK I thought it was funny how brutal UK politics were. I remember a big story being one politician calling the other "autistic". I thought it was crazy.
@Tyrone
Rasmussen & the Gallup guy are right that we won't know the full effect of the Convention for a little while - which is why I've already said we should wait a week.
However, we can already see that it's unlikely that McCain is going to be ahead - the full days polling for yesterday, post both conventions, has to have been a +Obama day.
For me, the most interesting thing is that a lot of the Obama bounce seems to be sticking a week later. It's be interesting to see how much of the McCain & Obama bounces both stick in another week.
Oh, and Rasmussen IS biased. Check how his party ID numbers have changed.
What should we make of Obama's 14 point edge on women voters being cut in half to 7 (according to Ras)?
Jakam ... I am worried that Hillary will unfortunately not be coming on the scene to battle Ms. Palin. Hillary's offical line (as pointed out by Nate yesterday) is that she is going to be "busy" for the next few months "raising money for Senators".
What??? I guess she forgot the biggest election ever was going on. I hope, really hope, that she is not joining the fight in hope for a 2012 run. I think that may kill the party for ever. To all you Hillary supporters out there, please please please, join the fight and ensure that Ms. Palin, a women with not even one once of the accomplishments of Hillary, does not undermine what she fought so hard for!
-thezzyzx
You sir are a legend
@Andrew
well, assuming he's 100% accurate on that - it means that Obama has picked up a load of male support because he's still 3 points ahead.
"What should we make of Obama's 14 point edge on women voters being cut in half to 7"
Republican woman are energized. That's what others internals are saying. The problem is that Dems aren't moving to her and Inds are turned off by her as a rule.
Yeah we were all warned last night by Scott and the Gallup dude to not expect anything to really move until Monday.
But this from Rasmussen is quite telling on which way things are going:
"As McCain has begun to chip away as Obama’s convention bounce, most of his gains have come among women voters. Obama still leads 51% to 44% among women, but that seven-point edge is just half the fourteen point lead he enjoyed last Tuesday. McCain leads by three among men, little changed in recent days."
We shall see... this is fun!
Rasmussen tracking for 9/6 is out. basically NO change from yesterday, Obama up 1 at 46/45 and with leaners it is O 49, M 46
I love that you snapped a photo from section 538 at invesco field -- classic! http://www.VoteRobot.org
"Jonathan said...
Jack,
that "community organizer" has, at latest tally, authored 152 bills in the IL state and US Senates. Sarah Palin blatantly lied when she claimed he hadn't authored any.
How does it feel to know you were lied to?"
I doubt he cares. The current brand of republicans have made lying acceptable to many in the base. Amazing how willing they are to accept Big Brother government where the truth is whatever they say it is.
Don't forget, an Obama +6 day drops off tomorrow. Obama's numbers will fall a point or two tomorrow unless he has a great polling day today. If McCain's numbers can stay the same, we can be looking at a statistical tie tomorrow.
"They do more than assume voters are stupid. They conduct a deliberate campaign to promote stupidity and mediocrity as being positive assets, while deriding intelligence and education."
Wow, you hit the nail on the head. This is exactly what I felt when I watched the RNC. The purposeful dumbing down of the american viewer. No discussion whatsoever of the issues. Just line after line of slander, anger and banter. Sad.
Fact is, if McCain had a 1 point lead in today's Rasmussen tracker, the consrvatrolls would be jizzing over their keyboards right now. Instead, Obama got a 1 point bounce after McCain and Palin's Horrorshow, and is now leading 49% - 46%.
No spin, just the facts.
If the Rasmussen underlying numbers are correct, Obama will top out at 48-49% which will be just THISCLOSE to victory but may just fall a few chads short. The favorability ratings are pretty much identical for both candidates (McCain's +1 advantage is in the noise) but his +10 advantage in unaffiliated voters means that most of the independents will skew right (again, an obvious statement since most of the increase in the # of independents came from the Republican party).
If McCain holds his loss in the women vote to 5-7%, he will win since it will mean he is breaking even in the purple states (the +25% in the women vote in CA, NY, IL, MA and NJ will account for that difference and then some).
Come Monday, it will be the same as it was 2 weeks ago, Obama will be up a point (+/- 1) and it will come down to 5 states: MI, CO, NV, NH, VA. Given the poll thad Obama up 13% in IA at the peak of his bounce but only up 2% in OH bodes well for MCCain to win this state by a few %
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