Besieged by blog rumors about her 17-year-old daughter, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — named Friday as running mate of John McCain — released a statement Monday saying her daughter is pregnant and plans to marry the father.What does one thing -- the news of Bristol Palin's pregnancy -- really have to do with the other -- scurrilous rumors that were never pushed by any mainstream US media outlet, nor by anyone remotely connected to the Obama campaign? What -- the plan was to keep Bristol Palin's pregnancy a secret from us, until she was rushed to the hospital to deliver her child a week before Sarah Palin's inauguration?
I think it's wonderful that Bristol Palin has chosen to have her baby, and I'm sure that she'll make a wonderful mother.
But if it's such a wonderful thing, let's be out and proud about it -- not try and change the subject. Let's disclose this in the People magazine interview. Let's not bury the news when there's literally a hurricane bearing down on Louisiana. And let's sure as hell not confuse the overheated rantings of the liberal blogosphere for the series of decisions made months ago by mother and by daughter that led to a 17-year-old child becoming pregnant.
The media ought to be more responsible than to take the McCain campaign's spin at face value. If that irrelevant distraction about rumors in the blogosphere belongs in this -- than certainly things like these do: What is Palin's position on contraception? What is her position on sex education? Does she believe that sex outside of marriage is immoral? These questions are not remotely personal, but they're certainly a part of the story.
299 comments
Might this be just the first little item in a laundry list that forms as Palin is vetted by the M$M and others?
I predict she will drop or be dropped if the numbers end up hurting the GOP ticket.
Sarah and Todd Palin have issued the following statement: "We’re proud of Bristol’s decision to have her baby..."
Interesting. I see that this was Bristol's DECISION and they are proud of her DECISION. They are glad that she exercised her CHOICE.
They are in deed (if not in word) pro-choice.
The descent of McPOWs campaign into trailer park trash hell continues....
moondancer,
eat a dick.
This hurts the campaign, no matter how McCain tries to spin it.
But this is just the tip of the iceberg with Palin's problems. What else has the so-called "extreme liberal" blogosphere dug up?
Sarah Palin was a director of a Ted Stevens 527 group until 2005!
And more damning, Sarah Palin belonged to the Alaska Independence Party until she ran for mayor of Wasilla. The whole platform of the AIP is to SECEDE!
It's becoming clearer and clearer that the McCain strategy was to trot out an unknown, let the blogs and media outlets vet her, and when they discover all of the skeletons in her closet, spin spin spin and cry foul and whine about bullying and mud slinging and how it distracts from the real issues. Pathetic!
I'm with capt. I think this is just the first of much to come on Palin.
McCain appears to have made a "gut choice" that appeals to both social conservatives and [potentially] to the PUMA crowd. Either he knew about her Alaska State Trooper scandal and the 5-month pregnant daughter and still chose Palin, or he didn't vet her. I have to give McCain SOME credit and assume that he didn't do his research; if he knew and still chose Palin, that would certainly show a lack of judgment.
Announcing during the landfall of a hurricane in Louisiana? Shrewd, and I hope the MSM does not let the fact slip by that McCain is using the hurricane to his political advantage.
Sorry to repost, but it was asked. The photo where Bristol has an obvious baby bump is from March 9th. So two weeks pregnant, max.
She tried to hide her daughter being pregnant this time. Pretty obvious she did it last time, too.
She was 7 months pregnant in the March 9th photo (and looks it), had the baby in April, and got Pregnant again in June. They picked 5 months so that when the baby wasn't born in November they could still hide it.
Except, of course, they can't. All candidates release their medical records. If Sarah actually wanted to rebut rumors about Trig being her grandchild, she'd just release hers now.
Took me way too long to realize that they're assuming we've all taken sex ed and can reason that if Bristol is pregnant now, she couldn't have secretly borne Trig a few months ago. This would have come out anyway; this way they're trying to assert the moral high ground.
There are developing stories out there, lots of them. If any of them turn out to be true, and I think they will, it puts McCains in an untenable position. Both his judgment and honesty are crushed.
Thats the problem with craps players, they're always rich..or broke, never in between.
People, I think I've figured out what's happening here. THIS IS RUSE! McCain picked Palin to make the conservatives happy, then a scandal erupts forcing him to dump her so he would have no choice and pick Lieberman. Think about it.
The irony of an anti-birth control candidate being the mother of a pregnant teenager is pretty rich. Obviously, abstinence was not successfully taught in the Palin home.
Any VP candidate with a pregnant teenage daughter would find that reported on.
Palin is the worst case of right wing affirmative action I've ever seen.
I was sympathetic to her until I realized how hard line and authoritarian the brain behind that face actually seems to be, and until I reflected on what poor judgment she showed in accepting a position for which she is so grossly unqualified.
I'm guessing that this pick can't help McCain, but even if it does, God help us, it marks the end of the Republican party as even a fake serious political party.
Troubling news for the McCain Campaign folks.
It will take an act of political jinjitsu to get anything other than a few points of a hit off of this 17 year old 5 months pregnant story. Would have been much worse for McCain, however, if the lie about Palin's 5th child hadn't been put out so strongly.
Sometimes the best move in politics and the gotcha game is not to move at all, instead let events unfold. No way that the kid could be not showing by mid October, and that would have been worse for McCain. Because of the preggers lust of Daily Kos, McCain gets to spin this (as Nate outlines) and has time to recover, as does Palin.
don't be surprised if Palin gets emotional Wednesday night and tries for the tearjerker ploy.
Stop the Stutter
My, my where's your cocky eloquence?
Umm so she has a down's syndrome baby and a pregnant teenage daughter and she dares run for VP with all this drama going on in her family right now? Won't someone think of the children? How can she even see what's good for the country when she has so many family issues going on? Where's the family values here? The VP isn't a fucking day care ESPECIALLY when you are VP to a 72 year old man whose father died at 71.
What a relief it is to clear up the parentage of her 5th child!
Now the only medical, moral and ethical judgment questions I have are these:
1. If daughter Bristol was severely ill with mono in March, how was she able to get pregnant? She wasn't at school for 5 months. (Way to go, Levi!)
2. Palin's judgment in the whole story in giving birth to #5 child, in which she severely jeopardized her health and moreover, the health of her unborn child should provide a window into what she would be like as chief executive.
John Nail said it best this morning:
"1. Traveling to Dallas at 36 weeks pregnant in the first place (via plane)
2. Not going directly to a Dallas hospital once her water broke (at 4 AM) which would be standard procedure per a number of posts from doctors and newspaper articles (in fact, delivering a speech 8 hours later, and THEN catching a flight to Alaska)
3. Flying home 10-12 hours with fluid leaking risking infection and delivery in transit
4. Not telling the Airline (whose rules prohibit just this sort of thing: plus what regard did she show for the other passengers? What if they had had to make an emergency landing to save her and the baby?)
5. Bypassing the premiere area hospital - Providence, 15 minutes from the Anchorage airport (vs. over an hour to your own w/ no NICU) with an NICU to handle a 36 week preemie w/ the double risk of Downs Syndrome baby where her OB/GYN was on the staff of Dr. Johnson, a practicing OB/GYN, is an expert in child and adult sexual abuse,
6. What does this mean if anything to the situation?
7. Baby delivered in the local hospital by this "expert" even though it was supposedly 4 weeks premature and had Downs Syndrome
8. Returning to work after 3 days off after this ordeal
@CoconutPete
Exactly. Finally, somebody says it. She has too much on her plate. Her husband said he would quit his job when she became Governor and didn't, so he's already declared his position on helping at home.
McCain needs to jettison her now. It's very very easy.
Oh dear... no matter if the rumors on the web are true or not, they are going to get massive play now. And it´s just my personal opinion..., but this will not play well with female voters. It might trigger some slightly hypocritical "she can´t keep her own house clean" talk.
THIS IS WHAT'S WRONG!!!:
The Issue: Sex Education
Palin’s Position: Would replace sex-ed programs with abstinence-only programs (source).
America’s Position: A broad consensus around the teaching of sex education has existed for decades, with 85 percent of Americans favoring sex-ed in schools as early as 1985 (source). The numbers appear to have increased since, as a 2004 poll conducted by NPR, the Kaiser Family Foundation, and the Kennedy School of Government showed that 90 percent of Americans believe that sex education is a “very important” or “somewhat important” part of the school curriculum, whereas only 7 percent believe that sex education should not be taught at all. In the same survey, just 15 percent of Americans supported abstinence-only programs (source).
Conclusion: Palin’s position is far outside of the mainstream.
How's that abstinence only working out Sarah!!!
moondancer,
eat a dick.
Ooh, poor little Republican asshole can't handle the truth.
If it's not hypocritical, it's not Republican.
And I still don't believe that baby's being born in December. It's be "LATE" in February. Take my mortgage, please.
As an Obama supporter let me be the first to say that I find this entire line of conversation unpleasant and beneath our politics. Isn't this the very thing Obama is trying to get out of politics. I hope the media leaves this one alone.
Let me clarify what I mean by "grossly unqualified" before the wingnuts start comparing Palin to Obama because they are similar in age.
Age has nothing to do with it. The constitution requires the president to be at least 35, and I believe that there are 35 year olds who could handle the job. Palin, at 44, and Obama, at 47, are both plenty OLD enough to be president.
The difference is that Obama, while relatively young and junior in the senate, has demonstrated enormous talent and achievement in public service from an early age.
Palin has few academic or professional accomplishments, and used her adherence to a simplistic ideology and her physical appearance to put together a controversial political career in an isolated rural state.
I don't dislike Palin; I think she has a strong if superficial charisma, which is why she was chosen. What I dislike is her ideology, hypocrisy, and lack of qualifications.
Its like DailyKos around here. Gotta love it, when the best the liberals at 538 can come up with is attacking a grandmother for having a daughter pregnant.
Nate said, "decisions made months ago by mother and by daughter that led to a 17-year-old child becoming pregnant." You may not have had sex ed nate, but becoming pregnant is not a decision a mother and daughter make. It requires both male and female participation to make the decision. This is likely a boyfriend-girlfriend decision, not mother-daughter.
Blaming the parents when 17 year olds get pregnant makes no sense at all. You guys are getting more and more retarded by the day.
Here is your lesson, teenagers mess around on occassion, sometimes this ends in disease, sometimes pregnancy, sometimes very few consequences at all.
The fact that Sarah Palin supports her daughter's decision making, whould put you behind her, not attacking her.
And as to choosing to keep the baby, it is a choice, even for a pro-life person, abortion is a choice in America, its sad but true. Sarah Palin's 17 year old daughter could have chosen to abort and did not. How does this make Sarah Palin pro-choice? If anything it makes her daughter pro-life.
Gallup: OBAMA 49% - McCain 43%
Rasmussen: OBAMA 47% - McCain 44% (with "leaners" it's OBAMA 49% - McCain 46%)
USA TODAY: OBAMA 49% - McCain 41%
What's the bet Palin drops out to "spend more time with her family" and McCain replaces her with Bobby "The Exorcist" Jindal?
Oh, people, people, people. I love how its always the other party that has the scandals, not the candidate you prefer. Nate, your increasingly pro-Obama stances are starting to call into question your mathematical models. Are you an objective observer that leans Obama, or an Obama believer? I think any objective reader of your blog and models would feel much more comfortable if you had a colleague working with you on the models that was the yin to your yang. You are losing credibility by the day.
Just one point I wanted to add -- the Palin family Christmas 2007 photo.
Bristol would have been approximately 4-5 months pregnant (depending on the accuracy of the May due date announced by the governor), and look at that visible baby bump. Oh, and she was out of school for 5-8 months (accounts vary) because, according to Gov. Palin, she had mono. Which also means she got knocked up with the current (just announced) pregnancy while in the midst of an epic struggle with mononucleosis -- really, at eight months, that's truly one for the medical journals.
Really, can you blame the "liberal bloggers" for reaching this conclusion? This kind of half-assed coverup might play in the sticks, but this is prime time, baby. :)
@ paygrade --
Nice and sensitive. In case you didn't realize it, our society moved past using the phrase 'retarded' as an insult about twenty years ago. Nice way to show compassion for the Governor and her "Developmentally Delayed" or "Down Syndrome" child.
Abstinence-only education at it's finest, kids.
McCain could've thrown a dart into a crowd of 'Maury" audience members and found a better running mate.
PorridgeGun-
That USA TODAY/GALLUP poll does not exist.
Please stop posting false information.
Thanks.
It's not John Edwards kid, is it?
McFail/Failin' 'XX
Well ...
It's not my business if this young woman was bedding everything that walked upright in Wasilla, but it is my business when her mother, the announced VP choice has apparently been unable to teach or instill a bedrock primary tenet of her own political platform within her own personal family sphere.
"Abstinence only" is one of Sarah Palin's bedrock tenets? Right?
Great leadership skills? I don't think so.
What a circus ...
Okay, can we please all back off the Trig's-not-her-baby stuff now? It's almost certainly not true, and if it's not true it makes liberals look like jackasses and idiots for harping on it. And on the very, very slim chance it's true and we're all being played, we're not going to prove it to the media and the world by harping about it online, for god's sake.
On a totally different, and much less uncomfortably muck-rakey note, I'd like to address the idea that McCain will drop Palin and go for another candidate: No way. It would be total political suicide.
McCain is *still* not that popular with the Evangelical crowd, or the religious right in general. Palin was the most socially conservative, reassuring pick he could have gone with for them. If he drops her and subs in Romney, or Lieberman, or Ridge, or Pawlenty, or whoever, they will *eat him alive*. His base will finally, genuinely revolt, and we will see an Obama landslide. He'd have to pick the ghost of Jerry Falwell to be his running mate to bring them back.
I'm starting to get shades of Eagleton here...
The blogosphere rumors about Bristol possibly being Trig's mother have an odd credibility to them, maybe just because Palin's official story is plumb full of holes.
McCain needs to jettison her now. It's very very easy.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Republican Party jettisons both of them...this week is their last chance.
This is like being asked about your heroin problem, and you respond by admitting to a cocaine problem. They still haven't said anything about the 5 month old, which could easily cleared up with medical records(which Palin would be obligated to release anyways). If you produce the records of her(Sarah Palin) visits to her doctors over months about the pregnancy, the story is dead. So...why haven't they done that?
I'm starting to get shades of Eagleton here...
The blogosphere rumors about Bristol possibly being Trig's mother have an odd credibility to them, maybe just because Palin's official story is plumb full of holes.
What the "five months pregnant" claim does now is ensure that Bristol Palin is subjected to intense media scrutiny from now until November...I'm shocked at the willingness of Sarah Palin to place her daughter in such a position...the woman is clearly without shame.
Wouldn't it make much more sense for her to simple release a birth certificate with her name as the mother for baby trig, instead of subjecting her daughter to this?
Seems to me, she didn't do anything to quell the trig rumors and only made things worse for her daughter.
If the media coverage of Palin turns negative, i think the McCain camp is in trouble. He can't dump Palin, it was his first executive decision and you don't get do overs in the oval office. Obama has hammered McCain on Judgment, and a failed VP pick would lend credibility to that charge and make McCain look to old for Prime time. McCain has to live with the Palin choice for better or for worse.
Two smart Sarah Palin posts in a row, Nate. The real story here is that it highlights SP's far-right, out-of-the-mainstream beliefs on abstinence only sex education and contraception. Now all we need is a good polar bear scandal (whatever that would be) to highlight her warped anti-environmental beliefs.
This is starting to turn into a reality tv show. She might make Dan Quayle look presidential.
"As an Obama supporter let me be the first to say that I find this entire line of conversation unpleasant and beneath our politics. Isn't this the very thing Obama is trying to get out of politics. I hope the media leaves this one alone."
I find it distasteful, too, but your comment borders on a concern troll plea to refrain from criticizing the other side.
I'm sorry, but Palin and McCain (and the Republicans in general) are the ones who injected private sexual morality into the race.
Imagine if she had mainstream, tolerant, personally moral views. She could simply say "I support solid sex education with an emphasis on monogamy but no undue censorship of key topics, birth control, and the individual's right to let their own spirituality and ethics guide their behavior, within the bounds of the law. My daughter got pregnant anyway, which is not that big of a deal in the long run*, and that's none of your damn business".
Instead, once again, a politician running on a hypocritical platform of moral purity is found not to live as they preach that others should (in this case, admittedly, merely in terms of failing to transmit the message to children).
*Not in my opinion - no flame war please.
Hehe I can't wait to see how the regular republiClown trolls (VaClown? Petey the parrot?) try and spin this.
Don't try and regale us with some fairy tale about how "doing the right thing" will "inspire single mothers" or some b*llsh*t like that. This is going to hurt you guys with the demographic this pick was meant to pander to; the extremely religious right and women. This would be almost a non-issue if it weren't for the fact that Quaylin has been championing the most hard-right stance against birth control and abortion for her political career. The party of values at work!
It hasn't even been a week since the pick and already the skeletons are coming out of the closet! Just imagine what gets vetted by the media during the next month about this women.
What's sad is that this poor 17 year old girl has to get involved in this. Maybe some bad karma for the McCain due to his wildly harsh and inappropriate remarks about a teenage Chelsea Clinton?
My prediction: Palin gets dropped as the VP before the first debate. Otherwise, august 29th will be remembered as the day that the McCain campaign sealed its fate.
@MATT J. H.
What's this got to do with Obama??? He's back in Chicago monitering the situation with Hurricane Gustav and prepearing to mobilize supporters for the relief effort.
Her daughter's pregnancy certainly isn't something to be proud of, nor is something that should be highlighted by the campaign immediately in the candidacy.
To the degree it is a failure of parenting, that's true in some fashion for almost all parents.
Re the giddiness that it "proves" some kind of illogic of abstinance education, that's not true. It works every time it's tried.
I further doubt that Bristol was shielded from the kind of sex education of which liberals think is such a panacea. Too often that message contradicts parents' absinence message by winking at underage sexual behavior.
Embarassment could have been avoided if Bristol's soon-to-be child became one of the 40-odd million abortion in the US, that would be the easy way out, wouldn't it?
If trig is the child with Down's Syndrome, probability favors that the older woman is the mother. Down's Syndrome births are many times more common for mothers in their forties (*albeit still quite rare*) than for mothers in their teens.
This is all a joke.
Reps can’t see or understand logic so the rest of us are just screaming into the void.
Their brain doesn’t seem to function normally, probably due to bad education. This explains why they prefer bad education for everyone. It trains more of their holy army.
As a McCain/Palin supporter this is disappointing yet it won't do anything to change my vote. I will still gladly vote for the ticket in November.
Unfortunately, its difficult to control children, especially older children, and especially with a difficult job like governing a state. I live in Texas, in the Bible Belt, and I have several friends whose parents are religious evangelical conservatives. These said friends always have sex, drink, do drugs, and such. It all goes back to parenting and peer pressure.
Saying and doing are two different things. I think it has a lot to do with my friends trying to break free of the "goody-goody" image that being the child of two religious parents brings with them.
Another issue with McCain's statement, as well as yours, Nate, is that liberal bloggers are defined as the source of the rumors. The truth is that no one truly knows who those bloggers are. If Palin has stepped on Republicans in Alaska, as has been reported, they could easily be getting revenge. Republicans who supported her for governor have already stated in a Bloomberg article that Palin is not ready for VP duties.
You can assume this info is spread by liberal bloggers but you really don't know that. They sound somewhat extreme to me rather than liberal.
While I personally have no problem reading about this stuff here I do have to agree that I find it a bit unbecoming of Nate to delve into this sort of tabloid material in posts. My father is more conservative than me and I have tried to point him to this site because I think the modeling is great. I even appreciate the posts like that about how Palin's views compare to polls of American's views on various topics. But stuff like this about the pregnancy is liable to get someone like my father to question the impartiality of the modeling and I think I would rather read tabloid stuff elsewhere. OR, if you want to make passing reference to it in connection with how it has or may play into polling, etc, that could be fine if handled right; then let the arguments fly in the comments and you can even add your own comments. But don't squander your rep for professionalism in modeling, Nate. And again, I say that as someone who doesn't mind reading all of your opinions but is uncomfortable seeing certain types as posts on this site.
Something that all of you folks calling for/expecting McCain to drop Palin need to consider: once she is the Republican Party nominee for VP (i.e., in about 48 hours), there's no going back. He can drop her from the ballot, yes; however, he cannot pick her successor. It's not his choice to make.
C'mon, let's get this roll call moving, folks! I'm growing a beard here!!!
BTW - it still looks likely that Sarah Palin herself might have already been pregnant [with 19+ y/o Track who graduated in '07] when she ran off & eloped in secret before a judge with no witnesses exactly 20 years ago this week.
So that would help explain how Bristol is quite likely to do the same thing now as her mom did 20 years ago - like mother, like daughter IMO ?
But curious that Palin is now claiming that her daughter is planning to get married - even though there was no apparent intention to do so before the announcement today...
A shotgun wedding indeed for crass political purposes.
Sounds kinda like Charlie Crist who announced this summer that he would get married to his beard in Dec - hoping that would squash the rumors confirming his sexuality so that McCain would choose him for VP. That did not work so I doubt he will follow through with the wedding. Apparently, McCain's vetter decided that Crist had too much baggage for VP - but they missed the boat on Palin with all these red flags out there already...
You can survive amost anythign as a politician if you spin hard enough. You can get away with being venal, corrupt, inept, shallow, silly, or untruthful.
Two things are lethal in American politics. One is to be exposed as a hypocrite. The other is to be made a laughingstock.
This is a twofer. Palin looks like a hypocrite, and McCain becomes a laughingstock.
Game. Set. Match.
Make that, he can drop her from the ticket. While it's a legally gray area, her name would likely remain on the ballot on Election Day. McCain would have to have his VP appointed just like any other replacement VP, via Senate confirmation.
Obama/Biden vs. sheep/iguana...
Easy! Vote for the sheep! Anything is better than Obama the Taxasaurus Rex.
Actually, her teenage daughter being pregnant will make Palin appear more sympathetic. Only if her daughter gets an abortion will the ticket be scandalized. Attacking a teenage daughter is beneath us and this type of attack can blowback hard.
Mayor of a town with 5-8000 people two years ago, so she's underqualified. Not vetted, so says something about McCain's decision-making (he'll have to make a lot of appointments to cabinet, judges, etc.), not to mention important decisions for this country outside of the hiring process. And lastly, I'm sorry but if 1 of her 2 big qualifications is how great of a moral authority she is, how is that I qualification that people will appreciate. Aside from, extreme far-right social conservatives, who care more about that issue than anything else, who would let this woman babysit their kids, much less, govern them. Her mother-in-law stated she's not qualified to be Governor of Alaska, much less VP yesterday. She herself doesn't know what a VP does and doesn't think she's qualified. PRobably doesn't want the job, but didn't know how to say no. Could somebody rational, not a lib or a conservative, tell me why I'm crazy. She seems like the most absurd choice I've seen. Perhaps the only mainstream politician that seemed like a mre ridiculous possibility was David Duke in Louisiana in 1992. This is much worse than Dan Quayle.
Blaming the parents when 17 year olds get pregnant makes no sense at all. You guys are getting more and more retarded by the day.
I agree that blaming Palin personally would be asinine. However, she has made her opposition to birth control and sex education part of her political persona. Her daughter's pregnancy highlights the hypocrisy and foolishness of that position.
Here is your lesson, teenagers mess around on occassion, sometimes this ends in disease, sometimes pregnancy, sometimes very few consequences at all.
I strongly agree with this, and furthermore, I strongly support the decision of the girl in this case to have the baby (not that it's any of my damn business, or yours), although I believe abortion should be legal.
Again, if you base your political career on promoting sexual abstinence and condemning other peoples' sex lives, you show poor judgment at best, and hypocrisy if you don't live up to your own puritanical standards.
I am fucking floored by this. Why the hell didn't they just come clean about it?
It's not the crime, it's the coverup. Ask Nixon and Clinton.
Above My Paygrade wrote, "And as to choosing to keep the baby, it is a choice, even for a pro-life person, abortion is a choice in America, its sad but true. Sarah Palin's 17 year old daughter could have chosen to abort and did not. How does this make Sarah Palin pro-choice? If anything it makes her daughter pro-life."
The Palins clearly see abortion as a CHOICE.
You don't hear people making statements such as "We are proud of our daughter's decision not to murder her husband."
So why say "We are proud of our daughter's decision to have her baby"?
Because they understand that this is a difficult, intimate, personal CHOICE that her daughter had to make.
It isn't one for the GOVERNMENT to make on her behalf.
The Palins have given the ultimate pro-choice argument. And they need to be called on it.
Don't try and regale us with some fairy tale about how "doing the right thing" will "inspire single mothers" or some b*llsh*t like that.
honestly - I think Obama should serve as an inspiration to single mothers everyowhere
musicman said...
"This is starting to turn into a reality tv show. She might make Dan Quayle look presidential."
Easy now. We don't want to make knee-jerk comments.
Jerry Jerry Jerry!
Now Cindy McCain says Palin has National Security experience because Alaska is close to Russia. Ha ha ha. Straight from the Faux News talking points. Cindy McCain is Britney Spears at 50 years of age.
Still at the end of the day its all about McSame. No Arnold Schwarzenegger at the convention this time. CA Budget impasse ... wink wink
HAROLD
while the probability of Downs births is much greater in older women as you say, the overwhelming number of Downs births are actually delivered by young mothers.
It is not even all that rare [less than 1 in 2000 births ?]. So while the odds seem to favor Palin as the mother, there is still a very real chance it was the daughter.
BTW - the daughter is supposedly almost 5 months pregnant now as stated in the birth pro-nouncement today. Trig was born 4 1/2 months ago [April 18] to one of them. It is entirely possible that Bristol is pregnant again for the 2nd time too...
that would be incredibly sad...
the entire affair reflects on how pathetic this all is for their family, McCain's judgment, and our country
How the fuck is she a hypocrite?
That term isn't even applicable here.
What does this say about the quality of Palins' vetting by the McCain campaign?
Did McCain pick her as a spur of the moment decision?
Now she is being publicly vetted by the media.
The DailyKos, clearly identified as an extension of the Obama campaign, was the primary source of the Palin false pregnancy rumors. Those on this board who somehow thinks this is good for Obama and bad for McCain simply betray their sophomoric ignorance.
These rumors and now the revelation of the private and personal matter for Palin's daughter will only serve to further enrage the Christian right against the left wingers and will reinforce the fact the Sarah Palin is the real deal. Remember, the objective of these rumors was to establish Palin as a hypocrite (John Edwards style) and now we find she is anything but.
Shame on all of you. See you in November.
Nate, you should be ashamed for throwing fuel on this fire. How does this possibly relate to polling? I hoped to see Sean's name next to it, but was quite dismayed to see yours. I re-read your post several times and I do not see what point you are making other than to keep this story alive.
One more comment and then I'm done with Palin... hopefully forever. (For my friend VCon's sake, if nothing else, I hope she is dropped from the ticket tomorrow before being entered into nomination.)
It just occurred to me, after a review of righty and lefty blogs and news sites, that this allows me to use a word I've always loved but never had occasion to use before now.
The entire nation, coast to coast to coast... is GOBSMACKED by this news.
Filistro-
If your side can't win now, you need to go the way of the Federalists.
@ VC --
ROFLMFAO. Or the Whigs.
I feel badly for you, guy. I respect a lot of what you have to say. Maybe it won't be that bad for McCain.
All Sarah Palin did was recognize her daughter as an INDEPENDANT person who may not have the same view as hers. That is being a human being, Sarah Palin chose not to play God with her daughter, and showed her the respect to make her own decision. That is why Sarah Palin is proud, becuase her daughter showed (in Sarah Palin's eyes) that she wanted to carry out her responsibilities, and live with the decisions that she made which caused the pregnancy.
I feel really bad for Birstol's boyfriend. There must be incredible pressure on him to get married given his future mother in law's ambitions.
Poor sap.
This news could damage the Obama candidacy as he mentioned that he didn't want his daughters "punished with a baby". Depending on how hard this story is pushed, it will either be a net neutral or positive for the McCain campaign.
Some thoughts:
1) She truly is a terrible VP choice.
2) This is none of our business.
3) Obama's response reflects very well on him. Basically he said, "why would I criticize when my birth was so similar?"
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/09/obama_blasts_mccain_camp_over.html
Sarah Palin is so ridiculously unqualified to be President it's just astonishing to me that there are conservatives who act like she was a reasonable choice for VP. Just astonishing.
As far as the rumor that her daughter gave birth to the 5th child - all of the facts and pictures lead me to believe it's absolutely true. It just doesn't add up any other way.
The McCain camp is trying to politicize a family issue..." liberal blogs, some even with Barack Obama's name in them.." We know that Obama did not personally endorse this rumor and is not responsible for the crap discussed on the net. Palin is so new, ANY information will be looked into: true or not. Obama has gone through this for past 19 months. Palin better be able to handle for the next 2. As Hillary Clinton said: If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. The true political issue is: what does this say about McCain's "Pandering Politics First" judgment to lead?
Why did she get on a plane in her third trimester to fly from Alaska to Dallas and then fly back to Alaska 8 hours after her water broke at 44 with a high risk pregnancy. Is it possible that her water broke because of the flight to Texas. To me this is negligent. Personal lives shouldn't be the main concern, but if this is certainly poor judgment. I'm not referring to her 17 yr old daughter, I'm referring to the days surrounding the birth of her 5th child. I can't see how that's not taking undue risk.
What this entire affair shows is the lack of vetting & poor judgment on McCain's behalf.
If he is POTUS, are we as a nation going to get this kind of attention from John to all his appointments ?
THAT is scary...
plus Cindy McCain claims to have been involved in choosing Palin.
Read the PEOPLE mag interview online - the Q & A's are just plain scary.
Further proof that McCain knew nothing about her.
@ http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20222685,00.html
I've tried to keep an open mind on the Palin pick, but I'm beginning to think that McCain may have stepped in it.
I don't think this is "unmanageable," but managing this will be tricky and he will have to do it fast, if his campaign isn't to be overwhelmed by it.
Great catch, Nate. Once again you've dissected the illogic of campaign argumentation and the media who enable it.
(To those who think this is just a polling evaluation site: it never was and never will be. It's a political analysis site, with a heavy emphasis on quantitative stuff -- just like Baseball Prospectus is a baseball analysis site with a heavy emphasis on numbers. If you don't want analysis or context, but just numbers, you can skip what you don't want here or read all your numbers elsewhere.)
"The DailyKos, clearly identified as an extension of the Obama campaign..."
Really?
that is "sophomoric ignorance"
I am a liberal blogger and immediately quaranteened Palin as a distraction -- she gets ONE PAGE on my blog and that's all. It is requiring consistent updating.
The main corroboration of the general rumor line that I have linked to is a lengthy post from the TPM CAFE.
I found the post here weird and incomprehensible, especially the sentence about some sort of collusion between mother and daughter, given that that is the original rumor.
Then again, Baudrillard says there's no longer anything on which there is nothing to say.
You do not quell a rumor by deflecting it with another story. It soes not add up and makes you look suspicious.
Sarah should produce the medical records of Triggs birth and put the story to rest.
Then, case closed, liberal bloggers look like idiots.
stutter... I assume that "hypocrite" question was for me, so I'll answer it... THEN I'm done.
Palin is a hypocrite because she claims, often and loudly, to "put her family first"... yet she allowed herslf to run for VP knowing her teenaged daughter was pregnant, and how much furor it would cause for the poor girl given Palin's well-known views on abstinence and abortion.
This was not the act of a "loving mother" as Palin claims herself to be. It was the act of a cold, hard, ambitious, selfish hypocrite.
Look, again, McCain is letting one of his best weapons slip away--making the election about Obama.
If it becomes about Palin and his judgement, he loses. He loses.
BREAKING NEWS!!!!
NJ_Wingnut is a fruitloop!!!!
Beautiful. We have confirmation.
dcm in Florida -
"So while the odds seem to favor Palin as the mother, there is still a very real chance it was the daughter."
Absolutely, and that's why I referred to probability, that is, the odds. However, if all we know is that the baby has Downs, those odds very strongly favor the older woman as mother.
Without getting technical, this is a problem in conditional probability.
In layman's terms, given that we know that the baby has Downs, and given that we know a baby born to Palin is many times more likely to have Downs than a baby born to her daughter (see link), unless the daughter was much, much more likely to get pregnant in the same time period, odds are pretty good that the older woman is the mother.
Palin is married and only 44. While her seventeen year old daughter may have higher fertility, there's no reason to think that Palin was massively less likely than her daughter to get pregnant at the time in question (which I guess is about 14 months ago).
Again, of course we can't know who the mother is, but if both are pre-menopausal and sexually active, Downs favors that the older woman is the mother.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maternal_age_effect
The ONLY thing I can see that is good from my perspective is this happens the same day as a hurricane and might die with all the oxygen in the room taken up by Gustav.
But that is only true if this is the *only* skeleton in the closet and Palin has been *fully* truthful about everything else, and isn't covering up more scandal.
To all the Reps that feel like they got slighted and feel hurt, I’m going to tell you the same thing McSame told us when that huge liar Corsi came with his book.
McCain said, "Gotta keep your sense of humor"
filistro,
That's a nice tidy idea you have there.
She can do more than one thing, you know. I think her family would be proud of their mother, and would want her to pursue the penultimate American (in politics) Dream.
God bless Palin and her family, but this seems a bit unsavory for a family possibly entering the white house. There are plenty of families going through this exact situation throughout the country but do we want one in the white house?
This re-iterates the point that we know very little about Mrs. Palin and this could be a bumpy ride for the McCain camp through November. Obama had a lot of vetting problems and it seems he's survived, but McCain has 2 months to make the sale to the American People and every day he's discussing this stuff hurts his campaign.
My ex gave birth to our second child two hours after her water broke. I'm not an ob/gyn but getting on a plane from Texas to Alaska after your water has broken sounds irresponsible to me. Any Doctors/Midwifes out there to comment?
The timing of the pro-nouncement about Bristol Palin's pregnancy is telling.
It took them 3 days to do it from when this hit the blogosphere during which time they maxed out on contributions & publicity.
All along some conservative skeptics have been postulating that this was a stop-gap selection that McCain could still change before Wednesday @ the convention nomination stage.
IMHO, perhaps this is the first step on pulling back the selection & substituting Romney, Pawlenty or Lieberman on or before Wed.
Any good PR man would tell you that you do not throw in the towel in one fell swoop. You break it slowly, then have her 'resign for the good of her family - both Bristol & Trig - and that her state of AK still needs her more to work on energy issues & drilling for oil back home'.
So Palin bows out with grace [or so she would appear] in the next 2 days, and the GOP VP selection is announced on WED and confirmed by acclamation for the good of the party & 'our entire country'.
Gustav alone allows this smart strategy to play out as magnanimous.
Time will tell... but it seems quite likely that this is just the first shoe to drop...
Two things. One, don't mess with other people's privacy. (Even though this could be a strong argument against abstinence education etc.). Two, dear John, please please please do *not* Eagleton her (I am a Barack supporter).
I will admit, as Hurricane Gustav dominates the news cycle, the real journalists aren't getting to weigh in on any of this and vet her for themselves, John McCain didn't vet her either, so we're out here passing judgment, but when people like David Gergen and Doris Kearns Goodwin think it's the most baffling pick they've ever seen that says something. No one could argue they're biased. Everything you could possibly consider as a criteria for somone you'd want in the position she's applied for her she seems to have a failing grade. No foreign policy expertise. No economic expertise. No qualifying experience. Social views that are far from the center. Mother-in-law says she's not ready. The decision to fly to Texas from Alaska in her third trimester and back to Alaska after her water broke. And her daughter's pregnancy. And the fact that she was the mayor of a town of 8000 less than 2 years all call into question whether she passes any threshold test anyone other than an ultra-conservative would give her and whether McCain passes the judgment test on how he chose his VP with no vetting.
Aside from baby thoughts,
I think the Gallup tracking +6 might mean last night was a 51-45 for Obama.
If tonight stays 51-45 Obama, that would actually put tomorrows 3-day at 51-44, first time over 50.
Let's see...
I'm curious what this is going to do to her polling numbers amongst women. Anecdotal evidence isn't worth much, of course, but all the women I've spoken to about it have been aghast at Palin putting her daughter through this kind of humiliation.
I wish I could give Bristol a hug. What a horrible thing for a seventeen year old girl to have to go through.
PeteKent is currently slitting his wrists in a nice freezing cold bubble bath.
Rub a Dub Dub
VC, you seem to think this is a dreadful thing. The Obama campaign and its surrogates used some vaguely misogynistic tactics against Hillary during the primary season. If they use this attack against Palin, Obama is going to need 3,000 offices to try and match the ground game of the infuriated Christian right.
They're not attacking her, though. Actually it all makes sense why they only said good things about her and quickly retracted their only negative statement.
They expected Palin to hoist her own petard, and they may have been right.
This is so stupid.
Palin "resign" because of daughter having a pregnancy.
Clinton press on after cheating on his wife and lying about it.
Talk about bias.
Does anyone else find it disturbing that it is NOT these facts:
-Palin's denial of evolution
-Plain's denial of global warming
-Palin's desire to instate abstinence-only sex ed
-Palin's desire to ban abortion under all circumstances
-Palin's desire to prevent married couples from receiving contraception!
...that bother the right wingers, but instead the fact that her daughter is pregnant? I mean, the list above scares the sh*t out of me far more than any pregnancy ever could, but apparently this grand-baby thing concerns the right-wingers more than any of her policies!
It will be a relief the day that these people have little or no influence in government...
"Look, again, McCain is letting one of his best weapons slip away--making the election about Obama."
I think that you're somewhat right about that being his best weapon. Obama has been consistently able to respond to critiques, so McCain generally will have to keep the press on to have a decent effect on that front.
The problem is that whereas Obama chose a VP that everyone knows and who immediately sent a shot across McCain's bow at the DNC, McCain chose a VP that he has to explain to everyone and who will have to introduce herself at the GOP Convention. He's made it really hard to focus on Obama with all the noise.
I thought this site was supposed to be a stronghold for statistics-savy posters. What percentage of American kids are born outside wedlock these days? What's the probability that any American mother with multiple daughters won't face (or more likely, successfully hide) the same embarrassment at some point along the way?
This can hardly be construed as poor parenting on the Governor's part - it's just a modern day American family living a modern day American way of life.
VC: I agree with you.
Sometimes people think "vetting" involves little more than filling out a questionnaire, or checking the public record.
When a campaign puts a little-known or perhaps frivolous candidate on a ballot (think Geraldine Ferraro, or even Thomas Eagleton) who hasn't been exposed to a long vetting process by public media incluidng the blogosphere, or had to fess up to and deal with some of the potentially risky aspects of his or her past finances or associations or shady relatives (in Obama's case, his pastor, for example, or even his middle name), then lauching the candidate onto a ticket is indeed risky and there is inevitable a price to pay during the campaign -- at minimum the price of distraction.
This news is a distraction; the more the media focuses on Palin and her family, the more uncomfortable independent and moderate voters will be with the Republican ticket.
Regarding the liberal blogs, Obama just put out a statement telling people to back off rumors and such. At the end of the day, Bristol's pregnancy dovetails with Gov Palin's views on sex education in schools, among other issues. Given her appeal to the ticket is entirely personal, her personal views and personal situation rightly deserve to be focused on. And come on, at the end of the day, DailyKos and other blogs are going to do everything possible to elect Obama; he can't do anything about them. He should condemn rumors, as he has, but he can't give back support he gains because of the liberal blogosphere's efforts.
Okay... one last thing...
this is how Palin looked at 7 months in her last pregancy. (Photo #7)
...and this is her at 7 months with Trig.
Until they prove otherwise, I believe she is pregnant with her second child. These tangled webs we weave...
HAROLD
well if you want to further discuss weho gave birth as a probability, you have failed to consider that a 44 y/o busy professional women with 4 children is far less likely [on the order of very unlikely] to get pregnant than the high probability that a fertile 16 y/o was to get pregnant in a small town in rural AK in '07 & '08.
Is anyone surprised to see that yet another teenage pregnancy ? Of course not. But 44 y/o women do not just get pregnant at the rate of teens - so that more than raises the LIKELIHOOD that it was really the daughter in the first place.
The older mother would NOT travel like that under those high-risk conditions [unless she was doing it with intent to harm].
In probability terms including the fertility & likeihood of ages, it all points toward the daughter - who may quite possibly be pregnant AGAIN now.
Reviewing the comments, and having never prior to 538 frequented a left-leaning blog (or right-leaning for that matter), I'm taken aback by the bald-faced hypocrisy and venom hurled at a woman who did nothing wrong other than join a campaign the commenters disagrees with.
Truth is not the goal, rather to hurl as many accusations as possible in hopes that something destroys her and her children. The posters who spread a vicious rumour yesterday are not apologizing now that it has been debunked - rather they are concocting new rumours and "concerns". Every Palin hater on this board has no doubt excoriated Jerome Corsi for his book of half-truths about Obama, but they have now become just like him. It's easy to spew vitriol behind a shield of online anonymity. How much of this would you say to Sarah Palin's face or even to your own mother?
Think about how your own life could be exposed in the most negative and humilating light and how it would in no way reflect your true beliefs or actions. One benefit of the old media is they have certain taboos, and digging into people's family life is one of them. If these posters are an example of the "new media", then we have definitely regressed.
They won't drop her , they'll deal wth the card they've been dealt. The GOP machine is great at spinning and campaigning, McCain is just putting them through a tough exercise with this pick. Resciniding the pick would be admitting they made a mistake. I've never heard a Republican do that. Never. Well, maybe Nixon. But, certainly not with an election at stake. It would call McCain's judgment into question and no spinning could stop that. They'll just have to pretend this stuff is no big deal and blame the Democrats for making it a big deal because they're being mean to the first woman the GOP's ever nominated. It's how the game is played. They can't take the pick back. Republicans would never, ever admit they did anything wrong.
Rosie and Mario said...
Took me way too long to realize that they're assuming we've all taken sex ed and can reason that if Bristol is pregnant now, she couldn't have secretly borne Trig a few months ago. This would have come out anyway; this way they're trying to assert the moral high ground.
You didn't take sex ed for very long, apparently.
First of all, it's nursing that's the natural birth control. You don't nurse, you can get pregnant a few weeks after having a child.
And for some women, that natural birth control doesn't exist. My sister's husband's mom had 5 kids in 4 years, no multiple births. The longest she spent without being pregnant over those 4 years was 6 weeks. So absolutely, she could be pregnant now and have had a kid in April.
If Bristol is three months pregnant, it all fits. Frankly, I find that a lot less horrifying than:
1. The whole flying-while in labor thing, which would have been horribly hazardous.
2. The whole "I can't stand the rumors, but rather than release my medical records I'll hide behind my teenage daughter" crap.
Frankly, if Trig is her grandchild, she'll be better off.
So how long before Bristol Palin is referred by the media as "Juno from Juneau"?
If this race turns into "The Alaska Diary's" soap opera this election will be finished very fast.
Palin is pro-contraction.
Taken from the Anchorage Daily News (August 6th, 2006):
"Palin said last month that no woman should have to choose between her career, education and her child. She is pro-contraception and said she's a member of a pro-woman but anti-abortion group called Feminists for Life."
http://www.adn.com/news/politics/elections/governor06/story/44186.html
Virginia Conservative 2:00 PM said...
"They're not attacking her, though. Actually it all makes sense why they only said good things about her and quickly retracted their only negative statement.
They expected Palin to hoist her own petard, and they may have been right."
-------------------------------------
OMG - I have to agree with you. Obama's campaigh first put out some negatives in the hours immediately after the selection on Friday am, but then Obama stepped on that in an impromptu interview Frid around noon.
Your theory just might be correct ! The DEMs might know that this will play out badly for Palin as crap slowly bleeds out about her in the MSM... maybe they even want her to get the VP nomination so that change later will be more difficult ? That would also explain why Hillary has yet to come out & smack Palin for not representing the right way to break through !
Matthew
Show me a medical book that says nursing prevents conception. That is a myth perpetrated by the fundies. The first menstrual cycle means your fertile. Period. And as to the five months. I think it's another lie.
Just now on the news they admitted releasing this to stop the digging into the paternity of the boy. Lastly, just to be clear, I could care less about some poor victim of getting pregnant...a lot. It's mommies and her bosses lying about it. And omission is a lie in this situation.
Ugh. Obama is just a class act. Just saw this and I have to say, this guy just keeps impressing me.
Think about how your own life could be exposed in the most negative and humilating light and how it would in no way reflect your true beliefs or actions.
Sadly, more to the point, think about how your children will be affected.
The problem Gov. Palin has is that when somebody is pregnant, it has a tendency to become, you know, obvious. This was going to come out even if it had never been openly discussed in Gov. Palin's home town.
In short, Gov. Palin knew her daughter and her pregnancy were going to be dragged onto the stage of the political spotlight. When McCain offered her the nomination, she had three options:
(1) tell us straight out about the pregnancy and express her love and support for her daughter, or
(2) keep her mouth shut even though she knew it would come out at some point, dragging her daughter's mistake into the cold light of media scrutiny, or
(3) decline the nomination out of concern for her daughter's well-being.
Of those three options, only (1) and (3) seem morally justifiable to me. And yet she opted for door number 2.
We knew so little about Gov. Palin. Based on her choice in this, we now know more and I have to say I'm not very impressed with what she just told me about herself.
This will all play out on the mainstream media. Since, we all know that the mdia has become completely segmented, some papers and stations are out there for the Libs (MSNBC, NY Times) and some for the Cons (FOX, WSJ), the liberal MSM will pick up on all this stuff and if the polling over the first week or two seems to help their cause they'll push harder, if it hurts they'll back off. I thin the first debate is Sept. 26th, so these stories will have more than 3 weeks to play themselves out. It'll be interesting to see how America takes it all and digests it.
Michael said...
"The DailyKos, clearly identified as an extension of the Obama campaign"
Please try to have some clue about what you are talking about before you make a claim like this. You are wrong. DailyKos is a privately owned blog with no connection to the Obama campaign. Just like RedState has no official connection with the McCain campaign. Barring some evidence, I would never assume that something that someone posted on RedState came from the McCain campaign. Just like this had NOTHING to do with the Obama campaign. Please check your basic facts before making a comment like this.
Just to be clear, if Palin adopted her teenage daughter's Downs baby that is very admirable.
Does not make her more qualified for VP, but lying about it in a campaign is wrong.
IF she fly while pregnant then her judgment is bad. Why did Palin keep the first pregnancy a big secret in AK until the supposed 6th month ? Even her staff had no clue - come on people.
This is lies & hypocrisy no matter how you slice it. Which calls into question her ability to be a VP let alone governor or even small town mayor... or even on the PTA !
Wow -- Did the purpose of this blog change? I thought it was to discuss and analyze the current polls. As a Republican, I am not sure how I feel about this news. It is pretty clear that the campaign decided to get any and all negatives out as quickly as possible, 3 days after the announce. This may cause a problem for the McCain campaign. Only the polls will tell. I think I still like the bet - consolidate the base, set up the reform and kick out the old political machine arguments. The liberal blogs have been running with this Story -- DailyKos and look at THIS blog yesterday and especially today. That may help stiffen McCain supporters and even get a little of backlash in the middle. Only time and Polls will tell.
(oops... just noticed there is another "Michael" in here... this Michael [me] made a comment about Gov. Palin and made no reference to Kos.)
Some of you guys disgust me. I understand liberals to be pretty disrespectful and full of shit, but wow, some of you are really scrapping the bottom of the barrel.
There is a place for people like you, and its called DailyKos and Huffingtonpost. Go there for a circle jerk of all of your political views.
Sarah Palin's ENGAGED DAUGHTER IS HAVING A BABY. WHO CARES?
Wilson said...
"Ugh. Obama is just a class act. Just saw this and I have to say, this guy just keeps impressing me."
I just saw him lead a prayer for Hurricane victims.
VERY IMPORTANT-
Check out the articles on Daily Kos and TPM (Talking Points Memo)
sites about Sarah Palin having been a member of the Alaskan Independence Party, whose goal includes secession from the USA.
An observation up at the top, suggesting McCain knew this all along, is interesting. As someone who fully understands how to twist words almost as well as the comedic experts on The Daily Show, why do we assume the McCain people were not the source of stories they attribute to the "liberal blogosphere"?
What was missing from any of the stories today is what David just wrote: Is the daughter going to continue her education while Grandma helps raise the baby? Does she think every pregnant child should have the same choice her daughter made?
And the 64 dollar question: Did John McCain leave his adopted daughter out of the family photo, or was that the Party's choice?
I think the problem for McCain is that his VP choice just became the punchline to a silly joke.
Ballgame to BHO.
Sympathy for girl. Repulsed by mother. Republican hypocrisy makes me vomit. But don't worry they'll turn it to a cheap and tawdry soap opera and gain some votes. Jack
OT: Just got a text from the Obama campaign asking to give $5 to the Red Cross or donate more online. How does that sound to everyone?
I like your site, but I'd like to see fewer quasi-scam websites advertise here. The legitimacy of your site from a rational standpoint should not give a halo effect to less than truthful "caveat emptor" advertisers.
This voting deal from ConsumerIncentivePromotions or whatever the heck their name is does not reflect well on you. Maybe if you had a conversation with those who place the advertisements on your site you could get the ball rolling in the right direction.
Yes. For the cynics, I have an agenda and here it is -
--- Give a free burrito to five people this year and ask them to do the same and so on!
Nate your site is becoming the 3rd ultra-liberal site on the web, the other two being MoveOn and the Kos.
I urge you, to preserve the little credibility you still have, to simply cover the POLLS, not tabloid stories.
Now onto this thing with Bristol being pregnant. As a young man myself, I find it disturbing since I am for abstinence, but I can assure you, that the stats that say 65-70% of kids by age 20 have sex are true.
Do I find it disturbing.. Yes.
But it won't affect my vote. Not sure how personal matters should effect my vote.
For once I agree with Barack Obama:"I have said before and I will repeat again: People's families are off limits," Obama said. "And people's children are especially off-limits. This shouldn't be part of our politics. It has no relevance to Gov. Palin's performance as a governor or her potential performance as a vice president. So I would strongly urge people to back off these kinds of stories. You know my mother had me when she was 18 and how a family deals with issues and teenage children, that shouldn’t be a topic of our politics."
Nate, listen to your boy Barack. Let this one go!
FLGOP,
"Only time and Polls will tell."
I think you answered your own question. Lots of folks here on both sides are hyped up by the Palin pick. Given the paucity of polling, people are jumping on whatever news there is. Too many of us here are poll junkies, so when the good stuff stops coming (we haven't see a state poll in days!), we get all jittery and anxious.
Michael (not the clueless one),
Sorry if my snipe at the other Michael sounds like an attack on you. That Michael clearly has no idea what he's talking about, and I just wanted to set things straight. The multiple posters with the same screen name can get very confusing. At least it is better than the early days when half of the people were "anonymous".
Tyrone,
"There is a place for people like you"
Um, have you actually read the FAQs here? Nate started this stuff on DailyKos, as did Sean, and both are openly liberal. Why should liberals not be welcome here. The only people I suggest should leave are the one's who complain about the site repeatedly -- if you don't like it, leave! Or if you think the topic is silly, don't read it. It's a free country (unless you're accused of being a terrorist, in which case the loss of habeas corpus is a real bummer).
I keep waiting for a conservative to say "We need to stop smearing Barack Obama. These accusations are untrue and are beneath us as a party."
Screw them. They get what they give.
Okay, (probably obviously) I'm an Obama supporter, but I have to say that the issue of Palin's kids having kids is out of bounds. And I fear this is the type of thing that will only hurt the Democrats more than help (it will rally sympathy for an otherwise mediocre candidate amongst die-hard Republicans).
Some will argue that it reveals how her out-of-the-mainstream views on abstinence only education are hypocritical. Perhaps...but I, for one, don't hold politicians accountable for what their kids or friends do or say. That's the same kind of Reverand Wright crap being thrown at Obama.
Some will argue: since it was used to hurt Obama, isn't it fair here? No - let's at least win this election with some principals in tact. As Nate points out, there are plenty of very good reasons that Palin is out of the mainstream and a scary choice for America. (Here are some: http://commonmistakes.blogspot.com/2008/08/top-ten-sarah-palin-scandals.html)
But this isn't one of them. Democrats make an issue of this at their own peril.
PorridgeGun, your data for the USAToday/Gallup poll is false.
Please, put the site here.
Don´t lie.
OBAMA STATEMENT ON BRISTOL PALIN
At a press availability in Monroe, Mich., Barack Obama said: "Back off these kinds of stories."
"I have said before and I will repeat again: People's families are off limits," Obama said. "And people's children are especially off limits. This shouldn't be part of politics. It has no relevance to Gov. Palin's performance as a governor and/or her potential performance as a vice president. So I would strongly urge people to back off these kinds of stories. You know my mother had me when she was 18, and how a family deals with issues and teenage children, that shouldn’t be a topic of our politics."
On charges that his campaign has stoked the story via liberal blogs:
"I am offended by that statement. There is no evidence at all that any of this involved us," he said. "Our people were not involved in any way in this, and they will not be. And if I thought there was somebody in my campaign who was involved in something like that, they would be fired."
And with that, FReeptard's heads explode. He's not the Anti-Christ afterall. He's a stand up guy who says what means, and does what he says.
Bill P. I agree with you 100% but after i saw Obama's comments on this topic and saw how he really wants this to be a step above the normal politics, I have to back agree with him.
I know we will never be treated like we treat them, but when it comes down to it, I rather be Ghandi then Bush.
"Nate, listen to your boy Barack"
Michael,
I'm sure that you didn't intend it, but this could be construed as racially insensitive. You know, given the whole history of the use of the term in the south and Obama being part-black and all. I'm NOT calling you a racist, but I'm just saying to be careful with language because many people are very sensitive about the use of certain words that have significant historical baggage.
In the previous episode of Desperate GOP Houswives...
Not only is she the most inexperienced VP pick in American History she will turn out to be the most controversial.
What other little tidbits will come up in the coming weeks? The media is already in a feeding frenzy.
Poor Johnny Mac, will his presidential ambitions lie solely on a referendum on Sarah Palin.
Vetting, schmetting, he's a Maverick... ROTFLMAO!
I have to agree with VC as well. The election was winnable for McCain as long as Obama was the target, as they waited for him to make a mistake (assumably in a debate). That is long gone now. If you are explaining, you are losing and McCain will be explaining this for at least this week. And this is only the first of the potential problems - as I said a couple days ago, this is the problem with inexperience, it is risky because of potential mistakes...can Palin make it 57 more days? She didn't make it 3.
Tyrone:
I agree, I am an Obama supporter and some people are going out of bounds with the Down's kid being her daughter's.
However, the comments on here pale in comparison if this were one of Obama's daughters. Also, this is relevent because of her out of the mainstream stance on sex education and the way they reported this precisely at the hight of Hurricaine Gustav. Obviously, they aren't happy in the Palin household that their daughter is pregnant.
It's most relevent because she knew prior to accepting the position. She knew that her daughter and family would have to go through this. Many of us don't know anything about her, we're starting to learn more. I think for 10% who will really decide this election, they won't look at this as fondly as many in the GOP are.
"Gallup: OBAMA 49% - McCain 43%
Rasmussen: OBAMA 47% - McCain 44% (with "leaners" it's OBAMA 49% - McCain 46%)
USA TODAY: OBAMA 49% - McCain 41%"
I strongly believe that Obama will break 50% in Gallup at least tomorrow.
Isn't Time the MSM Liberal outlet? Even they're saying no story here.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1837862,00.html
3 free observations.
From the non-PC department: Don't accept your party's nomination for VP if you're raising a special needs kid and your teenage daughter's pregnant.
From the common sense department: Isn't it far likelier that Bristol IS Trig's mother? Abandon your partisanship and consider just three factors: the photo evidence, the girl's mysterious school absence and Sarah's preposterous I'm-flying-across-the-country-while-leaking-amniotic-fluid-and-lying-to-the-airline-and-not-listening-to-any-doctors story.
From the cynicism department: Bristol will deliver the new baby much, much later than December or conveniently have a "miscarriage."
From the compassion department: McCain and Sarah got what they deserve. Poor Bristol.
"Some of you guys disgust me. I understand liberals to be pretty disrespectful and full of shit, but wow, some of you are really scrapping the bottom of the barrel.
There is a place for people like you, and its called DailyKos and Huffingtonpost. Go there for a circle jerk of all of your political views.
Sarah Palin's ENGAGED DAUGHTER IS HAVING A BABY. WHO CARES?"
directly, no-one should care. But it's relevant (and should be discussed on fivethirtyeight for 2 different reasons)
1)Palin is running on her family & beliefs very heavily. One of those beliefs, the belief in abstinence before marriage, is shown to have not worked in her own home.
2)Because of this you could see some small movement in the polls over the next couple of days at least.
Longer longer term, this is minor stuff. Doubt it'll make a big difference on it's own. But if more stories keep coming out that mean she's generally on the defensive in the MSM, that could cripple her long term, past just this election and forever.
Remember how Dick Cheney was disqualified from being VP when it was revealed his daughter was a lesbian? And Bill Clinton's primary campaign never recovered from the pot-smoking and Gennifer Flowers scandals? Surely voters will care as much about this.
Tempest in a teapot. And none of our business.
Oh, you gleeful jackals reveling in a family's problems. Little minds, little character.
Not to pop your balloons, but here are a couple facts refuting you prognositcations of doom:
1. McCain futures have traded UP today, not down. Contracts are still trading near all-time high levels, having rallied 30% in the last six weeks. He's catching up quickly, and doesn't have his convention bounce yet.
2. Palin VP futures have not budged an inch off these stories. If there were remote contemplation of throwing her overboard, it would show here first.
Wishful thinking at work.
The low-minded chatter on this stuff is the kind of talk we've all come to expect from the kook crowd, and while it isn't surprising, it is still despicable behavior. Don't you see that it destroys your own credibility, if there were any?
For all the vituperous refutation of more substantive rumors about Barry, such scurrilousness is sadly unbecoming.
I see a lot of parenting advice/condemnation for Palin today. But when did Michelle Obama's parenting skills get vetted? Or Barack's? I know if I spent 18 months campaigning I would consider myself a horrible father for the time I lost with my young children. But I never heard a peep from anyone here about parenting until Palin was picked. So now a woman is on the ticket and her parenting is an issue for some here. Try delving deeply into your own candidate's family instead of your opponent's and see whether you still respect yourself.
As far as I'm concerned, Nate can post about whatever in the world he wants.
It's his blog. We are his guests.
He's been up-front about his loyalties to Obama. There is no hidden agenda here. He's been completely open about his methodologies and models, much more so than many pollsters. So if you have any evidence that this is affecting his projections, then present it.
If we are going to make it as a nation, we are going to have to learn to tolerate opposing viewpoints.
Sarah sure "pales in" comaprison to Barack!!!!
hahaHaHaHAHAHAAAAAA!!!!!
Sarah "White trash" Palin - losing votes faster than even Quayle.
The first rule of a VP choice - do not harm - hahaHaHaHAAAAAAA!!!!!!!
I'll drink to this!
USA Today said she was losing votes before this!!!! Can't wait for the National Enquirer to show this is Bristol's second baby, and that the she has a long ohistory of abuse of power.
hahahahahHaHaHa HAAAAAAAAHAAAA HAAAA!!!!
ROFLMAO!!!!!
Nice move John.
OK, back to posting. Can McCain cut and run at this point? He has to be thinking about it.
This will bring Palins number from the high negatives in the USA poll. How high? 50%??
He's not the Anti-Christ afterall. He's a stand up guy who says what means, and does what he says.
Porridge - you're right. You could learn a lot from how your candidate comports himself. Your contributions here uncivil to say the least.
The liberal blogs have been running with this Story -- DailyKos
An outright lie. Perhaps FloridaGOP has trouble with the idea of user-generated content: he/she could register and post a DKos diary. The community and full-time moderators didn't elevate the rumormongering, and anyone wanting to read it had to go look for it. Says a lot about you.
I know, Wilson. And I respect Senator Obama's plea. Still, I know damn well what conservatives would be saying if this were one of Obama's daughters. Conservatives are disgusting people with disgusting political beliefs and a disgusting double standard. It's...satisfying...to see them on the other end of a smear for once.
DaWolf, please put the site of the USAToday/Gallup poll.
RCP didn´t put it.
Put the site if it isn´t a lie.
I don´t see this blog very liberal.
Rudy said...
"Re the giddiness that it "proves" some kind of illogic of abstinance education, that's not true. It works every time it's tried."
-- September 1, 2008 1:26 PM
Sorry, I just have to correct this little sleight of hand:
ABSTINENCE does indeed work every time it's tried. Abstinence-only EDUCATION, however, does not. Study after study has shown that it leads to higher rates of teenage pregnancy and STDs. Oh, and the funniest side effect: Higher rates of oral and anal intercourse. :-)
That is the point isn't it? Can you see the right wing smear email if this was Barck's daughter? It would link terrible stats on out of wedlock births to black girls, and lots of innuendo. Hmmmm, maybe we can do the same email with trailer trash?????
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Please MSM, run with this!!!!
I strongly believe that Obama will break 50% in Gallup at least tomorrow.
Indeed...the numbers should be the first to reflect a well-received appearance by Obama and Biden on 60 Minutes last night.
This is all fun to talk about. But it really truly isn't all that substantive... unless Sarah Palin is a lying cover-up artist, in which case it matters a lot more.
So once this scandal, or non-scandal, dies out, we will be left pondering this:
Do you want your favorite NFL team to go find a college quarterback to serve as its backup? No? Then let's ratchet up the level of seriousness a few notches: Why is Palin OK as our country's backup President?
Darren,
Stop trying to fight the hypocrisy of the left here. It's a losing battle and only creates more diatribe. Let them have Swingin' Willie Clinton and condemn Palin at the same time. As you know, the attack's all justified because Sarah Palin doesn't endorse talking about sex to 10 year olds in classrooms or in aborting your responsibilities.
It's just the way the left works. Let them cackle giggle and drool in their own effluvia of their own trite existence.
Darren,
Stop trying to fight the hypocrisy of the left here. It's a losing battle and only creates more diatribe. Let them have Swingin' Willie Clinton and condemn Palin at the same time. As you know, the attack's all justified because Sarah Palin doesn't endorse talking about sex to 10 year olds in classrooms or in aborting your responsibilities.
It's just the way the left works. Let them cackle giggle and drool in their own effluvia of their own trite existence.
Sarah sure "pales in" comaprison to Barack!!!!
hahaHaHaHAHAHAAAAAA!!!!!
Sarah "White trash" Palin - losing votes faster than even Quayle.
The first rule of a VP choice - do not harm - hahaHaHaHAAAAAAA!!!!!!!
I'll drink to this!
USA Today said she was losing votes before this!!!! Can't wait for the National Enquirer to show this is Bristol's second baby, and that the she has a long ohistory of abuse of power.
hahahahahHaHaHa HAAAAAAAAHAAAA HAAAA!!!!
ROFLMAO!!!!!
Nice move John.
This is the type of cackling giggling little pukebeast I was talking about.
Abistence only educatio is a failure, I am so glad a great advocate of it has proven that IN HER OWN FAMILY!!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
"In 2007, a study ordered by Congress found that middle school students who took part in abstinence-only sex education programs were just as likely to have sex in their teenage years as those who did not.[13] The study followed more than 2,000 students from age 11 or 12 in 1999 to age 16 in 2006. It included those who had participated in one of four abstinence education programs as well as a control group who had not. By age 16, about half of each group — participants in the abstinence-only program as well as the control group — were still abstinent. Abstinence program participants who became sexually active during the study period reported having similar numbers of sexual partners as their peers of the same age, and first had sex at about the same age as other students."
Dario... you are just such a mensch :-)
Ah yes, so happy to make you puke Stutter, as your positions have made me puke for years.
Should he walk away from Sarah "White Trash" Palin or not? Palewenty (the right choice) might swallow his pride and join the campaign? What do you think stutter?
Edited to reflect Reality:
Stop trying to fight the hypocrisy of the [right] here. It's a losing battle and only creates more diatribe. Let them have [Toe-Tappin' Larry Craig] and condemn [Democrats] at the same time. As you know, the attack's all justified because [Barack Obama] doesn't endorse [teaching the evangelical dogma] to 10 year olds in classrooms or [an 'if it feels good, do it' approach to taxes and the environment].
It's just the way the [right] works. Let them cackle giggle and drool in their own effluvia of their own trite existence.
I can't imagine a better day to dump her than today with a hurricane and it being Labor Day.
If she isn't dumped by the end of the day I think he is keeping her.
How amusing, watching all the rightwing assholes who live and breathe the Republican slime machine out in full whine mode because one of theirs was caught with her, er, pants down. LOL
The thing is, unless you absolutely believe that Palin's daughter is 5 months pregnant instead of 4.5, then Palin's "admission" doesn't completely clear up the strange facts surrounding Trig's birth. Either Palin was extremely reckless by getting on a plane and flying to Alaska after her water broke with a special-needs, high-risk, premature baby, or she is publicly lying to us about her biography. Either way says something very bad about her character.
If McCain drops Palin now, she can use the excuse that "the national campaigning turned out to be too much while trying to care for her young infant" and the media will let her go back to Alaska and leave her in peace.
But if McCain waits until these stories erupt in the MSM with full force (which they will) then it will be clear that she had to go because of scandal, and that will cast a serious cloud on McCain's judgement in choosing her.
I used to think Palin was a Quayle... now I think she's more of an Eagleton. Too bad McCain never took the time to properly vet her (he was so intent on surprising us that he wasn't willing to send his whole team of lawyers up to AK because somebody would have figured it out). Oh well. I just feel sorry for Bristol in all of this. Poor girl.
"This will bring Palins number from the high negatives in the USA poll. How high? 50%??"
Oh absolutely! Maybe Sarah should get Willow knocked up too, the Republicans would win in a landslide!
LOL
Let's face it friends. Bush, Chaney, and Palin---all white trash with a poket full of money. Jack
I wouldn't recommend using the phrase "white trash".
Darren,
Obama conducts himself with dignity and class and says the rights things, as any great statesman should. He'll make an outstanding President.
I, on the other hand, am not running for President. Shit, I'm not even eligible. Nothing is off limits to me. Also, the fact someone had the audacity to ask Obama if his campaign was pushing this story really pissed me off. And after reading comments on a couple of extreme right-wing websites attacking Obama, his wife and kids and spreading vicious smears only validates my snarkiness.
Brad,
yeah, those low taxes and free enterprise sure are hell aren't they. You can puke at that, I will miss it if Taxasaurus Rex gets elected.
Antmatic wrote:
And come on, at the end of the day, DailyKos and other blogs are going to do everything possible to elect Obama; he can't do anything about them. He should condemn rumors, as he has, but he can't give back support he gains because of the liberal blogosphere's efforts.
Yes, but this is something that many Republicans don't seem to understand about the Internet and blogs in particular. Obama doesn't control DailyKos - pretty much nobody does.
I don't really see what else Obama could have done. He didn't use the magic word 'condemn', but he made it absolutely clear that he thought this was out of bounds and that anyone on his staff saying these things would be fired. That's condemnation.
DailyKos also made efforts to suppress the diary, but their rules are very strict as to what constitutes "conspiracy theories". It's very close to anarchy, but there was certainly condemnation of the story from a great many Kos participants.
Obama can no more control what is said on the blogs than McCain can control what so many of the conservatives say here.
There is no way McCain can dump Palin, True. But it is very posible for Sarah to change her mind.
McCain might be on the phone right now clarifying the roll of VP to Palin... it seems mostly to involve making coffee.
OK, this truly is tabloid material. The problem is that what is happening right now in Palin's own family can be viewed as an indictment of her own policies.
Obama can no more control what is said on the blogs than McCain can control what so many of the conservatives say here.
An when asked about it McSame usually responds lighten up get a life or it was a joke.
Brad,
yeah, those low taxes and free enterprise sure are hell aren't they. You can puke at that, I will miss it if Taxasaurus Rex gets elected.
Cutting taxes at wartime is the height of irresponsibility.
If the war is worth fighting, it should be worth paying for, no?
So here is something more political and more tangible.
Palin has been portrayed as the fighter against Alaska corruption. But for the immediate 3 years before getting elected Governor she ran Ted Stevens' Foundation. She even cut an ad for him in June/July.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/01/palin_was_a_director_of_embatt.html?hpid=topnews
He is the grandad of Alaska corruption scandals so this is just another way in which the vetting was not done.
What plays in Alaska reporting is nothing like what will play at a national scale. Having been at the head of that Foundation (which was really at the center of much of the investigations) is just not good news. Too many things coming out all at once.
You guys are treading on very dangerous ground now... and Nate you are supporting it.
This election has gone from snippy to nasty to vicious.
Now you crossed the line and you are now attacking our children.
Stop this before people start getting hurt. It will turn violent very soon.
Your party always wants to thump your chests and brag about your superior intelligence.
Tell me this... how smart is it to anger to the point of violence the party that has the guns?
It's so easy to hide behind your keyboard and throw out your hate, but I fear this will get much worse if you do not stop. Your hate will make you lose more than an election.
Todd Dugdale,
Perfectly put.
However, I don't see how Daily Kostic has any kind of "strict" rules whatsover when they are juvenile enough to consistantly refer to John McCain as "McSame" instead of just McCain. This lends towards an errosion of percieved credibility.
"I wouldn't recommend using the phrase "white trash"."
I couldn't agree more. Calling out someone's ethnicity simply isn't necessary or helpful.
"The thing is, unless you absolutely believe that Palin's daughter is 5 months pregnant instead of 4.5, then Palin's "admission" doesn't completely clear up the strange facts surrounding Trig's birth. Either Palin was extremely reckless by getting on a plane and flying to Alaska after her water broke with a special-needs, high-risk, premature baby, or she is publicly lying to us about her biography. Either way says something very bad about her character."
EXACTLY! My money is dead on three months pregnant with her second child.
Poor John, the maverick dies the death of a maverick - this happens when you jump in before you look.
Please keep her John. Pretty please!
new poll from CBS
Great find NAT. She also pulled a Steven's ad from her own website AFTER she was announced as VP.
Cutting taxes at wartime is the height of irresponsibility.
If the war is worth fighting, it should be worth paying for, no?
It sure is if you believe higher taxes leads to higher revenues...
Huh. Mary Matalin just called the blog posts about Palin the "most evil blog stuff I've ever read".
She's apparently never been to Free Republic or the Drudge Report. That's where the real slime hangs out.
salp7 wrote:
An when asked about it McSame usually responds lighten up get a life or it was a joke.
That works with his base.
We can call him on it, but using it as a justification to copy that behaviour is a bad move. Especially in Palin's case, because she will be her own undoing.
What is the best case result is the rumours about the "5th baby" are true? Palin is dumped and we get someone worse. McCain looks a little bad for a news cycle. Big deal. It's a "gotcha" with high risks and a low pay-off.
Since this site is dedicated to polls:
CBS News: Obama/Biden 48 McCain/Palin 40
If he keeps Palin through the convention he cannot dump her and win. That said, all our hard work could lead to a 3 AM dumping tonight.
A 5 point convention bump from CBS
DarCrow
You are threatening people with violence over comments on the internet?
Do you know how much of a lunatic that makes you?
You honestly think there will be an uprising because of a comments thread?
So you are saying that republicans will shoot people for making negative statements about a republican. That means you think republicans care nothing for the constitution and the rule of law. That they are just wild people who will kill because they don't like what someone says.
Well, gee, that would sure make me want to vote for a republican.
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