Here's what I think it's safe to conclude: the GOP had a successful convention. John McCain now holds a 3-point lead over Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll, his largest lead since May. And Rasmussen shows the race tied at 48-48, after having shown Barack Obama with a 5-6 point lead at the peak of his convention bounce.
We will have to see how the other polls weigh in (sorry if I can't take anything from Zogby Interactive too seriously, although it is officially included in our model.) More critically, we will have to see what the new state-level electoral landscape looks like. Since John McCain's daily results seem to be improving over the course of the tracking window, by the way, we should probably expect this bounce to get bigger before it gets smaller.
Still, we just don't know in what direction the polls are going to move from here forward. There just isn't any precedent for so many political molecules being packed into such a tight space, with the conventions and VP selections having come right on top of one another. If one assumes that the Republicans are getting a typical 6 or 7-point convention bounce, that suggests that the race still probably leans by a a couple of points to Barack Obama once the polls return to equilibrium, the current numbers representing some sort of short-lived, dead cat bounce along the lines of what happened to Walter Mondale in 1984. If, on the other hand, one assumes that both parties have had their say and that these polls already represent the new equilibrium, things are looking up for McCain-Palin. The truth, of course, is most likely somewhere in between. Our tracking graph still regards Barack Obama as roughly a 3-point favorite, but it is designed to respond cautiously to new information. If McCain sustains these numbers over the course of the next week or so, it will shift toward him relatively rapidly.
9.07.2008
Today's Polls, 9/7
@ 2:48 PM
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Palin's the political equivalent of the sports fan whose favorite team is the one who just claimed the title. She is incapable of understanding the plight of a Cubs fan because she's too busy buying Red Sox merchandise. Nobody will take Sarah seriously until she reaches into her closet and pulls out that Cubs jersey...
Obama 297, McCain 241
Looking more and more like 2004. :)
PPP is going to be releasing new polls tomorrow and so is survey usa. Now it's just up to us to play the waiting game
Thanks, Nate - We have been waiting for data. It seems like you are saying that Obama had a 5-6 point convention bounce, and now McCain is showing a 6-7 point bounce. We need another week to see where it settles. I am interested in the state polls as is everyone. WHY have the state polls stopped? and when do we expect to see them again?
Any special meaning for the new state color scheme in the left margin, with different background and fill shading? At first I thought it might be a comparison between now and 2004, but that doesn't seem to be the case (e.g. VA).
Any chance you'll break out the probable daily Gallup and Rasmussen numbers again?
So McCain had a bigger bounce than Obama? LOL!
As I told you boys yesterday, I was certain McCain would be up 2 to 3 pts by Monday. I was wrong, it is today. Why?
The Ras' tracking poll, out today which showed a tie race, has the answer to your question as to where McCain's new support is coming from:
"McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama's lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women."
White working class (no college) women are moving to McCain-Palin en masse. This result strongly suggests the move in the polls is due almost entirely to Palin's selection and speech performance. If that is true, the move in the polls is not a bounce, it is a structural change in the fundamentals of the election.
I've been following this blog for a couple of weeks now, but first time poster...
Things have happened so fast and with such intensity that I'm not sure any of these numbers have relevance. We need a large number of state polls to get a better idea of where things stand, but I'm not sure where this is going anymore.
How long is the old maverick/young conservative marriage gonna' hold ?
Where is the Obama strategy ?
What everybody needs is a week on prozac, a couple of days to get the chemicals out of the system, and take a fresh look.
Anybody know when we can accept reliable state polls in sufficient numbers ?
Logically, I realize this is merely a bounce for McCain and it most likely won't last and than in a week, Obama will probably regain a small lead.
But emotionally, I'm thinking "WE'RE DOOMED!!! DOOMED!!!"
And it sounds like it's going to look worse over the next two days.
"Now it's just up to us to play the waiting game"
Wrong. Go knock on doors and make phone calls, dude.
Are you going to run your algorithm again and tell us what the most likely numbers were for yesterday? I enjoy those... they seem to have been pretty spot on so far.
Looks like McCain made the most of his "home field advantage" in getting to pick his VP after the DNC and the RNC going 2nd. Will it last?
I think Obama really needs to hold a major speech over the economy sometime in the next week or so to get this race back on the issues. The whole "Palin effect" is dominating the coverage and Obama really needs to get the focus back on the nation's troubles before it starts to slip away for him.
I agree with FloridaGOP. It's strange how there seem to be such big time intervals between state polls, especially with only a relatively short time to go before the election. We especially need some more polls from Ohio and Colorado.
The MSM and Kos bloggers have replicated the mistake of the Japanese when they bombed pearl harbor.
This is still a center-right country and their 'cheerleading' and smears have awakened the sleeping giant of the evangelical movement. The only time that I have seen similar enthusiasm was in 1984.
No, the RNC convention was a game changer and Obama knows it especially looking at his recent performances on the stump.
This looking more line Reagan/Mondale landslide for Palin/McCain.
Sarah Barracuda.....
The question, of course, for we poll junkies is at what point a McCain lead in the polls (and how much of one) can be regarded as more than just a bounce. A first indication might be if he holds more than a 3-4 point lead past Wednesday.
(Or, perhaps more immediately, a first indication might be on what day he peaks in his single day tracking poll. Assuming Nate's numbers are correct, Saturday's Gallup numbers were roughly +7 McCain. If tomorrow's lead in Gallup is more than +6 for McCain, then he is still going up. If it is +4, then the bounce is beginning to settle.)
Even though we knew it was coming, the next few days will be no fun at all for poll junkie Obama supporters ...
It's going to be a 2004-style victory not 1984.
Hi there, I'm relatively new to the site but I'm already hooked on it. Ive been looking every day for a fair amount of time now and I have a couple of questions about the race as it stands now. How much emphasis should we be placing on these convention (and VP) bounces. At what point of a McCain lead should I as an Obama supporter be nervous? After all these numbers are only temporary and the race will soon settle into what looks like a dead heat, right? looking ahead I am wondering how much of an impact the debates will have on this election. Will they make or break the election or will it be the ground games of the candidates later in November?
Please ignore the seasonal increase in neoCON comments folks. Let's all get out today, tomorrow and everyday until the election canvassing and making calls. Obama being declared the 44th president on election night will quickly enough silence all. Let's just go out and make it happen.
Why don't you include the American Research Group in your national poll projections?
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
To 538 Club,
I am a new member, so be gentle. I have two brief comments.
First, until a week ago, I thought that, even if the worst happened, and McCain were elected, it would still be better than the last eight years. I feel that no longer.
Second, until a week ago, my basic feeling about this election was a sense of outrage at the Bush administration. Now, I am really afraid.
I sincerely and pray hope that these numbers will turn, yet again.
The back and forth "we're winning they're winning" is getting tired. The frank truth is that McCain has some huge hurdles to overcome in terms of the product (not the brand as the stupid MSM bobbleheads keep saying). As long as Obama/Biden get a full-court press going they will take it. This is NOT like 2004 in that the dems don't have a milquetoast ticket, and the public is sick of repug corruption. We also have Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann to counterbalance Faux Noise. Mark my words -- Sarah Palin is going to go down in history as the joke she is.
Ladies and gentlemen, meet your new vice president:
"Sambo Beat the Bitch".
Charles-
That rumor is on the level of "Obama is a Muslim". It's bullshit.
Ha ha like it how all the conservatives are gettig over confident all of a sudden (reagan Mondale all over again? Pull the other one!)
I think what we are talking about is a close election right now. Will it break one one or other? Lets remember that Obama's lead peaked at 9 points in the Gallup tracker post convention. McCAin isn't near that yet.
One thing the Obama camapaign was good at during the primaries was stopping the bad press with an endorsement every now and again. If Chuck Hagel or Colin Powell were ever going to jump out and endorse Obama, now might be a good time!
Now all the Libs can stop whining...
"A McCain-Palin adviser says an interview was offered to ABC’s Charlie Gibson several days ago and that they expect it to happen in the latter part of the week in Alaska. Palin is the governor of Alaska and is expected to return home at midweek after more joint appearances with McCain.
Oh, there's lots more to it than that.
I thought you weren't reading my posts any more? LOL.
This means we've got a game going on here.
I expect Barack to have the lead (a small one) next week, but it doesn't matter. McCain did what he needed to do to make this a race. Barring a disaster from either side,should be neck and neck until the 4th. Let's see what Barack & Company have been holding back for this moment.
""A McCain-Palin adviser says an interview was offered to ABC’s Charlie Gibson several days ago and that they expect it to happen in the latter part of the week in Alaska. Palin is the governor of Alaska and is expected to return home at midweek after more joint appearances with McCain."
That's not a press conference.
Sarah Palin: Chihuahua with lipstick.
Yeah, I agree it is not going to be a pretty few days for poll junkies who favor Obama.
I am going on a self-imposed poll fast until Monday, 9/15, at which point the true contour of the race will be clear...
It is kind of the Schawrzenneger model...he announced so late that by the time the truth of his seamy gropenator info came out, it was too late.
This election will NOT be determined by Palin, but there are dueling narratives.
Narrative A) She is a spunky, gutsy maverick, a very attractive and fiery young woman, who takes the sheen off the Obama as change message, and helps McCain reclaim his "maverick" label, aided and abetted by a complicit corporate media, cowed by the fusillade of "sexism" thrown at any inquiry into Palin's fitness for office.
Narrative B) Palin is a far right, corrupt, thuggish and woefully unqualified creationist flat-earther, aptly self-described a pitbull with lipstick, and once independents, esp. independent women figure this out, and esp. when troopergate explodes, she will bea real drag on the ticket, esp. if the corporate media do their job, be investigative reporters instead of court reporters, and insist she answer some questions off script.
From the looks of Rasmussen's trend, unless Obama has a terrible day in the polling day today that is averaged in tomorrow, he should at least hold on to a tie tomorrow.
As for Gallup, it looks like tomorrow will be a further drop.
If McCain has a big lead by Wednesday Obama is going to have to start pulling out all the stops pretty quick. This will include having Hillary go on all the news networks questioning Palin and they (Obama & Biden) will HAVE to start hammering Palin on many issues. Because let's face it, Palin is the main thing propping McCain up right now. They need to start chipping away at her. Ignoring her at first was probably the smart thing, but if they continue this it could be a huge mistake.
I think the next 2 weeks are very critical for Obama, he needs to consider giving a major speech on the economy and they need to take the kids gloves off Palin. Sure this is a gamble but they will need to shake things up.
Virginia Conservative -- from what I hear, "Sambo beat the bitch" is standard lingo up in Alaska (among the whites anyway). She spews divisiveness with every insult she hurls, and we have her on tape laughing when a radio host referred to another woman as a "bitch" (ditto McCain, though at least he seemed a bit uncomfortable with it). So I'm just curious -- what about the above, her attitude and general demeanor makes you think she didn't say it?
Thanks Nate. I couldn't turn the computer off, and the TV until you posted today. I also wanted to thank Sean for the brilliant analysis on Hockey. I am scared, very very scared. I can't donate again I did that last week but I can start organizing those around me and seriously talking to people who I know are registered because we helped with that but who need to VOTE EARLY here in Colorado as they might be busy and not vote on November 4th with work ........I depend on this site way too much but I can't tell you how much I appreciate even the bad news. Save my country, I'm old and can't go through another war, watching economy tank. Who cares? Me and I don't care who Sarah or her kid is sleeping with
Chuckie K.--
I gotta knock down bullshit rumors.
Jeremy-
I think you know next to nothing about Alaskans.
This is almost freaky. Wikipedia of the past or the future? You decide?
_____selected to be his Vice-Presidential candidate on _______, and ______stated, "I am absolutely thrilled."[27] The ______ campaign was wagering that her selection would shake up a race in which he was a decided underdog; in addition to attracting women, they were hoping that she could attract ethnic Democrats in the Northeast U.S., who had abandoned their party for Reagan in 1980.[13][17] In turn, ____ was accepting the risk that came with her inexperience.[28] _________________National Convention was one of the most emotional moments of that gathering, with female delegates appearing joyous and proud at the historic occasion.[29] In her acceptance speech______________
The choice of _________ was viewed as a gamble, and pundits were uncertain whether it would result in a net gain or loss of votes for the _______ campaign.[31] In the days after the convention, _______ proved an effective campaigner, with a brash and confident style that forcefully criticized the ________ administration and sometimes almost overshadowed Mondale.[30][29][13] _______ had been _______ behind in polls before the pick, and after the convention he pulled even for a short time.
I would hope that McCain was "a bit uncomfortable with it"...Hillary was the one being described, and he claims her a friend.
If Alaska was so racist, why was Obama pretty close int he polls there over the summer? You're denigrating an entire sate because you hate the VP.
Keep looking for that silver bullet, libs. What a waste of time.
Why not just come out and admit that the much maligned Sarah Palin has essentially brought the much adored Barack Obama to a screeching halt.
As always, thanks!
Interesting stuff!
I see you have been reading my TPM blog Nate, I posted about the dead-cat bounce right after the Palin pick haha. I hope that is the case, I can't imagine this Palin thing helping any more than it has already.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/08/the-dead-cat-bounce-why-this-p-2.php
Thats my post on this same topic
"Why not just come out and admit that the much maligned Sarah Palin has essentially brought the much adored Barack Obama to a screeching halt."
Because she hasn't.
This is a convention bounce in a poll. It's not the election.
"What a waste of time."
I agree with Michael -- this is all a waste of time. When we get some stability and some state polls, then we'll see what's what.
beneath the surface
a river of volunteers
will they quench the gains?
"I think you know next to nothing about Alaskans."
Someone named Virginia Conservative doesn't have much stock in making that critique, either, lest you mention some other facts we are missing.
Anyway, here's my question: WHY is this happening? I watched both conventions, and here's what I saw:
-Both groups used the change message.
Why are people taking the Republicans seriously on this? Every time they sing that song, they're really, really hoping that someone is stupid enough or forgetful enough to realize they are the incumbent party.
-There was frightfully little substance at the RNC.
And yet, the most prolific (if untrue) critique I hear conservatives throw at Obama is that he has no substance.
Seriously. I don't know how anyone takes these people at their word, especially given that both Palin and McCain clearly have no problem lying to our faces again and again and again.
"Anyway, here's my question: WHY is this happening?"
A lot of very stupid, very easily manipulated people who are happy to put incompetent people into office based on their personalities and what they did 40 years ago. That's why.
It's up to the thinking people to ensure the topic gets back on the issues.
VC - Hell, leave Alaska out of it if you want. What in Sarah Palin's attitude, record and demeanor makes you think she isn't a racist? She belongs to a church that preaches homosexual "conversion" and anti-semitism (see any article about the teachings of her wackadoo church), believes abortion should be illegal in all cases except when her daughter is pregnant (see -- 'daughter made her own choice to have the baby', a choice Palin thinks others shouldn't have); attempts to turn Americans against each other in her convention speech. So... she is racist against Jews, is anti-feminist (doesn't support equal pay and woman's right to control her own body) and sows hatred and suspicion of the "other" (see -- urban Americans) among her "base". So tell me now, why shouldn't we believe she made the petty comment about sambo and the bitch again?
Welcome, Michael. That passage from Rasmusen caught my eye as well. It appears that women are moving to McCain in one fell swoop, evience, as you say of a sructural change in the election demogrpahic.
Only those with their heads in the sand would deny Palin's appeal to women. Where she does not appeal, is to liberal women who vote ideology over gender, a subgroup of liberal women, btw.
Palin has shaken this race up.
If Mccain can consolidate his lead this week, the election is his to lose. All we have are a series of low expectation events that Mccain and Palin are likely to overperform in.
First up Charlie Gibson? Good choice.
She'll be fine on Meet the Press.
Both of them will be ready for the Debates.
Where does Obama bin-Biden turn this around?
Is it true that Obama slipped and admitted he was Muslin today?
That can't help.
There seems to be much overconfidence from conservatives and hand-wringing from liberals over expected movement of the tracking polls. Sheesh, y'all need to get a little perspective. A week ago the roles seemed to be reversed, yet all of this was not only predictable, but WAS ACTUALLY PREDICTED by Nate, among others. Patience and perspective, people.
Follow up question: is Norwegian or French easier to learn?
You know, just in case.
I'll be knocking on doors and making phone calls this week. I don't know how much difference that'll make in Seattle, but I'll try.
Here's HOW OBAMA CAN WIN!
-------------------------
Obama is a Harvard Sissy!
His campaign is based on taking the high road and keeping a level keel!
Unfortunately, the Republican Party knows how to win! Don't play fair! Make shit up! Lie, when necessary. ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK!
Make it subtly (with code language) a BLACK vs. WHITE election, NOT for all, but just 20%of the moderates and indepedents.
The Clintons warned that the Repubs will NOT play fair or take the high road and that Obama CANNOT win due to his human nature!
The Clintons said the bipartisanship is bullshit and will never work with the Southern White Conservatives Combined with the Oil Sector Money and oil stakes that hang in the balance.
Obama was and is too dumb to recognize this!
BUT, he still has some time to make the change!
UNTIL and UNLESS Obama ATTACKS cleverly AND forcefully EVERYTHING the Repubs say and throw at him, he cannot win!
HERE ARE A FEW ATTACK AREAS:
---------------------------
- The NO SEX EDUCATION and no funding for sex education is Classrooms (Women, Moderates and Independents care about this).
- Supreme Court Justices who will oevrturn Roe vs. Wade, and undermine the Constitution with psuedo dicattor-type powers for the President (Women, Moderates
and Independents care about this MN, WI, CO, NM).
-- HIT even more effectively on the economy and the Real estate mess and foreclosure problems (FL and NV opportunity + swing states of MI, PA, VA)
--- IT's THE HISPANICS STUPID---Not on the english language TV and only on Spanish Channels.
WE MUST SCARE AMERICA, JUST LIKE THE REPUBLICANS TO WIN!!
PULL OUT ECONOMIC HISTORY!
ECONOMY ALWAYS HAS PERFORMED better under Democrats!
So, scare the bltzkreig out of America, that the Economy will collapse EVEN further, and that the WAR MONGERING party will GO TO WAR with IRAN (to help Israel), and OUR ECONOMY will be destroyed due to another $400-$500 BILLION a year in war spending!!
Those that would deny Palin's approval to women are simply outraged that no one has yet mentioned there are 20+ Republican women in the current Congress who are more experience than Palin.
She's just cuter.
I am a Republican and I would like to note that I have been consistent through all these ups and downs of the Polls. I do not think the polls mean very much right now, especially the national polls.
I think all the dynamics favor Obama and it is still his race to win. Having said that, I am amazed that it is this close and that it seems as it Palin has helped McCain at least in the short term.
I would like to think that substance overcame style. John McCain is not an exciting orator, but his convention speech was solid, and I think it appealed to middle America.
I'm unfortunately thinking today that Obama/Biden are planning on handing this thing over to the repubs.
Honestly, they need to call bullshit on Sarah Palin: she had no less than three demonstrable lies in her speech and many slimey remarks that should really turn off independents. It would be golden for getting independents back-- but they're pretending the whole thing didn't happen.
A big offensive right now: call out Palin's lies, hammer the economy issue including the plan for middle class tax breaks, and push a big healthcare plan. These are all winning issues for the democrats, but they're content pushing their inane one liner "more of the same". It doesn't mean anything anymore, you need to draw sharp objective contrasts between the two parties. If Obama/Biden can do that, they win easy. If this continues to be about identity politics and culture wars-- McCain will keep it close and it'll be a coin flip.
Virginia CONservative is a paid member of the neoCON losers who come here to boost their kkk ideology. He was saying last week Obama wasn't going to get a bounce, now he says this looks like 2004 again.....just laugh and move along, next week when everything is back to where it was he will be calling it a McPalin landslide.
"Is it true that Obama slipped and admitted he was Muslin today?
That can't help."
My God are you an idiot, PeteKent! That's why people ignore you and treat you like a clueless simpleton -- you post things that are just silly and clueless. Try actually watching the interview!
What a moron.
Will Walker,
Haiku? Really?
Franco--
Are you going to move to Canada when Obama loses? Don't do it--take it to the streets, man! Show them McCain winning is an "inside job"!
If the MSM continues to let the coverage be about Palin then McCain has a really good chance to win.
If the MSM gets this election back on the issues then Obama becomes the favorite again.
How the MSM frames this election over the next 2-3 weeks will be a big factor I think.
But Obama supporters need to think about one thing. Having the polls being really close or even a slim McCain lead is really for the best. I think if this comes down to the wire it will make the youth vote turn out in much larger numbers than if they thought they really didn't need to vote. Obama had better hope his ground game will work with the youth vote, I think they will focus on this pretty heavily in the final weeks.
Zelbinian;
McCain has cred on the change issue b/c he is the first candidate since TR to run independent of his party. There has been a shift in his message and his focus. He is now portraying himself as the outsider he has always been. The maverick is back. Palin serves to put starch in his shorts and to remind him of who he is, where he has been, and where we need to be going.
It is a powerful message and trunps the Potemkin Village of change put up by the Obama campaign and the Democrat establishment.
McCain - Palin: Real Change for Real People
quantman, you'd enjoy this.
I think that you will see a definite Palin effect to McCains advantage until the women that moved to her begin to learn how right wing that she is. Then some will return. It will be interesting to see how long this takes
I agree with the sentiment that there's not a catalyst that will make most of this bounce evaporate. McCain will likely be no worse than up a point or two by the end of next week. The question is Barack Obama is no Walter Mondale or John Kerry, so what tricks will his campaign come up with and will they work? I think McCain's high watermark will probably be tomorrow or Tuesday, but he'll probably have a 5 or 6 point lead by then. Obama has never been behind. Not since the beginning of this campaign. He never trailed Hilllary, he never really trailed McCain (assuming he realized Hillary's supporters were potentially available to him all along), he never trailed to Allan Keyes and the only time he ever lost in his career he got trounced in an unwinnable election in 200 to the House. So what does he try to do and will it work? This is really up in the air at this point. My guess is if he figures out how to reenergize his base he'll win. I don't know how he can do it though.
Virginia CON-servative paid McPalin hack
thanks for proving my point
bwahahahahhahahha
This bump for McCain is just temporary, no one really believes that McPow and Buffy can really win the election, maybe in an alternate world but not here. Obama will be back up by 3 or 4 by the end of the week............
This will be Franco the day after the election:
"The Diebold hackers paid by McCain and Karl rove $tole the elections for their neoCON corporate ma$ters. Say not to John McCain and AmeriKKKa!"
For those of you who are interested in polls, SurveyUSA today released a Missouri district-level poll taken before any of the big events of the RNC. This one is for Missouri's 9th district. Here are the numbers. The first are the poll numbers, the second are the numbers from 2004.
McCain....60...59
Obama.....36...41
This suggests pretty strongly that Missouri is no longer a swing state, or anything of the like. The poll was conducted when Obama's bounce was in full effect, but the entrenched rural vote didn't move very much. Bush won the district by 18 points and carried the state by seven, even with an unprecedented 80-20 margin for Kerry in St. Louis.
There's very little chance of Obama's margin getting at all stronger than Kerry's in St. Louis. Compound that with what looks like a strongly depressed performance in rural Missouri and the state becomes an impossibly long shot for Obama. It looks like he would only have a decent shot of winning it if he was ahead by double digits in the national popular vote. And that isn't likely to happen. I do hope his campaign is diverting resources from the state; despite the "bellwether" allure, it's quite possibly the worst investment for Obama in the U.S.
(This is not to say that this is a new development. It isn't. But, given the dearth of polls, we may as well work with what we've got.)
FLGOP,
Smart post. I don't put much stock in the tracking polls either. And for all of the flash of Palin's speech, McCain's actually had some substance at times (unlike Palin's). While Palin appeal to the base, McCain reached for the middle. While McCain isn't a great speaker, he came across pretty well on Thursday. Plus, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.
My sense is that this movement in the trackers is primarily just a normal convention bounce, with perhaps a bit of added movement because McCain generally polls better on weekends (when younger voters are less like to be at home).
The persecution meme surrounding Palin will only serve to bolster her popularity.
McCain asserting the lead will bring men who are sitting on the fence wating for a signal to join the bandwagon. The youth vote become bored and disallusioned. Biden has shown Obama to be a traditonal Washington Politician and yesteray's news.
Convention bounce or the consolidation of the "Palin Effect".
That's the question...
I just looked at the voter registration numbers and am no longer hyperventilating. :)
Also, to PeteKent:
I agree that McCain *used to be* a maverick. Now his campaign is filled with the lobbyists he threatens to do away with, his VP is a queen of the pork he claims to be against, and he has voted with Bush 90+% of the time (95% last year and 100% this year). He is no longer an agent of change. He's just hoping we're all stupid enough not to notice. So far, a lot of us seem to either be that stupid, or have invented really clever ways of rationalizing that away.
I assume you are in the latter group. But after the "Did Obama admit he's a Muslim today?" comment, I'm not sure.
Is it true that McCain said he was gay today?
Man, that's not going to help. Nor is it true Pete Kent. You scumbag.
Actually, my last post made me think of a question:
How quickly does new voter registration information make it to those polling firms? This is, I think, an important question.
Bob, and Others:
I really don't see the movement to Palin as being issues-based, it is rooted in the historic nature of her candidacy and the fact that she is a woman.
That she is a modern, attractive, post-feminisst woman who has come from no-where to defeat entrenched male interests gives her a charasmatic appeal that trumps any notion of her positions on the isses, most of which have been well-reported to this point.
That the Now crowd is attacking her will only stand her in better stead with the average woman who has no sense of kinship with the hairy-legged, bra-burning crowd that was Hilalry's constituency.
I thnk many HRC upporters will welcome identifying with a woman who has broad appeal without bringing a vaguly Lesbian agenda.
How many of us feel about 'McCain the Maverick'
The best comment here is the one from Uncle Toby, which speaks volumes about the "bounce" effect (dead cat or otherwise). For those who missed it: In 1984 Mondale trailed Reagan by 16 points in the polls. After Mondale named Geraldine Ferraro his running mate, he briefly pulled even in the polls. But so what? We all know what happened in the end: Reagan won 49 states.
@Aaron
looks like Missouri should be forgotten then.
@Charles
good link. I would hope that Obama does that. I doubt it though :(
Palin is not "racist against Jews." Quite to the contrary, she's one of the real wackos who we could say is "racist in favor of Jews." It appears she actually believes in all the lunacy about Israel's chosen place in the End Times and that U.S. foreign policy should be formed with such in mind. This lady actually displayed a flag of Israel in her office as governor of Alaska. Think about that. How many governors display flags of, say, Japan or Zambia in their offices? She'll be very, very easy for Lieberman and the Neocons to control. They've probably never had the opportunity to have such a true believer in the mind control psy-op Rapture stuff potentially as president.
WTF is a "vaguely lesbian agenda"?
People really need to stop overreacting to the national tracking polls - either when they are for or against Obama.
For all we know, all of McCain's "new" support is coming from Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas, etc... until we get state numbers, I just can't be too concerned one way or the other.
By the way, Pete Kent, remember how John McCain Vociferously supported a military draft? Do you want that one to go viral again? It's bullshit, of course, he's actually against the draft, but he misspoke or misheard or is senile and it could easily be construed to sound like his support of the draft. More people would vote for a muslim than a draft supporter.
Scott, that's very true. At the same time though, I'll be more comfortable once the bounce ends (assuming it is a bounce)
How quickly does new voter registration information make it to those polling firms? This is, I think, an important question.
Everything I've ever heard is that these firms have a hard time polling new registrants, and typically deal with those who have voted before. Please someone correct me if I'm wrong.
Uncle Toby:
NJ Moderate reproted on the other thread that Obama self-identified as a Muslin today in PA. perhaps it was a freudian slip of the tongue.
I suppose what was more interesting was that Obama was in PA again!
He should be in NC or MT, doncha think?
I'm going to be real interested in new Colorado state polling.
McCain-Palin drew 13,000 yesterday in the Springs. This energy hasn't happened on the ground for the GOP since Reagan. Going into the convention, McCain wasn't Bush 3 but Dole 2. Now he's close to Reagan 3.
This may not be playing nationally but its really big here. The Obama/DNC crew placed a lot of energy into promoting their Greenest Ever Convention. The discovery of 10,000+ American flags in the Invesco trash is going to be hard to reconcile and explain on many levels. The flags were rescued by Boy Scouts who turned them over to the McCain campaign. The McCain campaign then pulled this genius stunt of having th eflags adopted by thousands at the Springs rally.
The MSM is still obsessed with Palin and the Hillary voters. This is due to them trying to fit the facts into their storyline, rather than objective analysis. If McCain/Palin pull in an extra 1 in 20 Hillaries that's worth a few points in the Tipping states - particularly OH and MI.
But the real damage that Palin is doing is with working class indy women (who may not have voted in the primaries) and with young women. The Danger with young women is if Palin becomes cooler than Obama ... this is absolutely in play.
Feminism 2.0 - The poster child for old school Feminist 1.0 (released in 1968) was one of the free speech advocates who ... yawn ... snuck into a conservative’s speaking event to yell crap and disrupt the event. The crazy did a nice job of ranting and representing the women of America who don't shave their armpits or ... gasp ... wear lipstick or dig a non-metro man's man like the 1st Dude. Is Palin Feminism 2.0 (release date 2008)? No one knows ... yet ... but its in play.
When Plain got picked, I posted here that I was bouncing off the walls with joy. Obama left this door open with his diss of Hillary. The MSM is running the D spin that McCain's pick was a overt play at women ... yeah so? This same media praised Obama for picking Old White Guy Biden as a play for middle class white men ... so what's the diff? Obama plays for white working class men and that's seen as clever. McCain plays for women and that judged as cynical ... this is yet another example of why we on the Right are at war with the MSM's blatant bias.
Energy vs Action - We McCain peeps need to temper ourselves ... yes the energy is great BUT at best we now roughly match O. But O's had this going for some time and has translated this energy into ground game action, we're way behind. The D voter registration numbers are scary good.
Palin Depth - I'm going to be looking for Palin to demonstrate depth in her stories and stump lines. If the same messages and stories get repeated without new material it will give fuel to spec that she's thin.
Beware O peeps - The danger in the assault on Palin is that you are establishing precedents which eventually are going to be played back on your people ... if the 1st Dude's 20-year old DUI is game .. then what of Biden's kids current legal troubles over lobbyist corruption? Do we now get to take a harder look at Obama's own tales of drug use? And is this setting up our attacks on Chicago corruption and going full bore on Rezko and crew?
Troopergate - Both parties are guilty of overplaying hands and Troopergate is no exception. The Democrat leading the legislative investigation just shot the wad on cred by announcing he was moving up the results by three weeks to get it out much further before the election. What? Can we get then info on the existence of a federal grand jury on Biden's son? If so, what's its timeline? Is Biden a subject of interest ... touché.
what is the reference to Obama self id'ing as a type of cotton fabric?
Sounds like *drumroll* the return of the CONCERN TROLL!
Aaron,
no one is suggesting Missouri is in play, it's safe McCain, everyone realizes that. The demographics and dynamics are far more interesting in many other states. The chance of Missouri being a tipping point state is probably close to 0%. If Obama were to win Missouri it would be because there was a titanic shift in this race where Obama won in a landslide. Very unlikely and of no consequence. Missouri is off the radar as far as states that matter and both sides realize that. If Obama needs to flip states to win Iowa and New Mexico look most likely. He then needs 5 more electoral votes to win if he holds Kerry states. The order for most likely flips is something like Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Montana & North Dakota, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Indiana. He also has to play defense to keep the Midwest and New Hampshire. Those are the only states in play. Everything else is off the table including Missouri.
A Little Perspective:
For what it's worth (from Wikipedia):
"A post-convention Gallup poll showed Bush leading the Kerry by 14 points."
"According to Gallup, Bush jumped out to a 7 point lead directly after the 2004 Republican National Convention--first week of September. About 10 days after that, Bush's lead had widened to 14 points, again according to Gallup."
Kerry ended up losing the election by 2.4 points. Just putting this out there, for a bit of historical perspective.
I know the conservative partisans are happy at this good news, and I know the liberal partisans are thinking the sky is falling. But, then there is reality, which isn't measures in internet time.
Wow that was a big slip by Obama.
Definitely, folks like VC, keep up the gloating with your guy up by a couple of points. Obama's folks will simply use that like Phelps used his naysayers. The more trash talk, the better for Obama.
But take a step back, and it's clearly unwarranted trash talk. The conservative rabble is excited, but that's why they are called rabble.
We have seen a GOP base energized by Palin, and we have seem throngs turn out to see Palin. What we have NOT seen is any groundswell of movement toward McCain. The idea of McCain coasting into the White House on the coattails of Palin is a cute fantasy.
And with McCain's desperate change in tactics, moving from the experience line that clearly failed, and now aping Obama's Change, we see the same dynamic today as we've seen since the primaries. This election is STILL all about Obama.
And as such, there's nothing better than Obama being down in the polls for a bit. He will resonate much better with people when he is perceived as an underdog, and it will make the change argument work better.
And the Obama base, already starting to get more motivated due to Palin's trash talk, is going to get even more energized once they see him down a little.
This thing is still too close to call. IF, and I mean IF, McCain can hold a 2% lead until the first debate AND exceed expectations, he may never look back. I'm in the minority, but I do expect McCain to over perform in the debates. This one will worth watching.
VC:
You dont recall the persistent rumors of homseexuality dogging Hillary?
I told you once before, don't try and curry favor at my expense.
Please, you could not even see the potential for Sarah Palin. I loved seeing you portrayed as a concern troll! Called that big time wrong, didn't you?
I know you Momument Avenue, lace curtain Republicans well. Useless.
Please reserve your trenchant observations and "WTFs" for the loyal opposition.
PS - Going to be interesting to see if 1st Dude goes out on the Hopi Res and plays his native american cred in NM. There iis a solid record of his advocacy of Native issues in Alaska.
Eric said...
Aaron,
no one is suggesting Missouri is in play, it's safe McCain, everyone realizes that.
Ok, sure... so why is McCain spending so much in MO? It's weird.
Bill Clinton WANTED to this Election to be Mccain vs. Hillary.
WHY?
Because Bill and Hillary had shit on McCain. other Women liasions and McCain's out of wedlock babies.
Probably secret FBI info from when Bill was President (like all Presidents do).
NOW, Bill cannot afford to have Palin be the women VP, If Bill wants Hiilary to ever be President.
SO, BILL and Hillary have every incentive to LEAK this DAMNING info on McCain out cleverly and untraceably.
They will do it, they have NO Choice. Else, Hillary cannot become President! It is their interest!
Then both Hillary and Bill will get to MI, PA, VA, FL, CO, NM and with all the Hispanics and scare the living daylights out of the people there that IF they want to keep their jobs vs. seeing all USA money in the middle east and China/ Asia; they better vote for Obama.
Wanna keep your jobs OR Risk McCain military man WAR with Iran,
Then Vote for Obama, or you are doomed!
Why Obama admit to being a Muslim on ABC anyway? See link above.
As a DKOS radical leftist and 35year old, that lives in my parents basement, I am very concerned about the polls. I think we should rerun the convention and nominate Nancy Pelosi for President. Maybe we could have Harry "he body" Reid as VP.
I gotta go now. I have to harvest my weed before mom & dad get home. By the way, I am looking to hook up with another of my kind. I am short, a little pudgy, glasses, balding (but not bald) and my unemployment will soon run out. So whoever I find, they must have a job....
Just a quick thought, is this a McCain bounce or a Palin bounce. Because if its a Palin bounce, we may be near the end of it. Obama's biggest bounce happened around monday, with 3 full days polling after Obama's speech. I wonder if we will see Obama back ahead in Gallup even by Tuesday? (I am specualting a bit, but I just wonder how much of the support for McCain is actually for hiim or for his VP? Has he made the classic mistake of picking someone glitzier and more popular than him?)
I don't think Obama is a Muslim but that was a really stupid gaffe that gives grist to the rumor mills.
"Because Bill and Hillary had shit on McCain. other Women liasions and McCain's out of wedlock babies."
Sorry quantman, but fair's fair: this is slimy bullshit unless you can back it up.
All of the fanboy rah rah stuff here is pathetic.
It is annoying in sports (Yankees suck, no Red Sox suck!). In political discourse it is dangerous.
Look at the state of the nation and then ask yourself why.
We have all of the historical info from previous races and bounces, we have all of the underlying polls and stats from this race pre-conventions and we have all of the macro-trends.
How about we try to get back to some strategy and realistic analysis rather than just spinning.
I hear the CNN message boards are a good place for crappy, partisan and uninformed posting.
If that's what everyone wants for this board have at it.
Glenn-in-CO -- oh, put a sock in it about Todd and his 'native american' cred. You have no clue what you are talking about. Look at Indian sites and you will see lots of talk about Todd. He is 1/16th Eskimo. This is what kind of cred? This is one more Palin whopper, in a line of whoppers, and no Indian will fall for it.
I don't think Obama is a Muslim but that was a really stupid gaffe that gives grist to the rumor mills.
I would suspect it makes more sense if the clip continues. However, you are correct that how it cuts off will feed the rumour mill.
Isn't Colorado Springs a center of the Evangelical Movement? Big crowd there doesn't surprise me.
Can someone explain where the flags that ended up in the trash came from? Picked up by Invesco cleaning crews? Really?
Apparently Bill had met Gore just once prior to making him his VP.
And for anyone who didn't see the ABC interview, Obama did not say he was a muslim, he said that McCain has not said he was a muslim. The George Snuffalapogus (who I think may have been asleep at this point and woken up) stepped on Obama's answer as if it was a mistake when it wasn't. Think Snuffalopugus may have it in for Obama!
VC:
Actually, you are the one adding the grist and this is the rumor mill.
That's the Limbaugh trick, and the conservative media trick, pretend like you are talking about something becoming an issue when you are the one making it an issue. And then say, wow, that fire got out of hand when you are the one with the kerosene in your hand.
Also, lying scumbags. Just to reiterate, spreading the muslim rumor=scumbag.
"I would suspect it makes more sense if the clip continues. However, you are correct that how it cuts off will feed the rumour mill."
Yeah, there will be those chain emails with the YouTube link now. McCain can win without that horse shit.
As for the Muslim crap, don't let yourself be manipulated by the lies of the McCain/Rove team.
Watch Obama discuss his faith for yourself and see his comments in context.
It is 100% clear what he meant. Anyone putting this forth in any other way is a piece of shit. Anyone who falls for it is a fool.
McCain had sex with over 100's of women during his Navy days, and when he was married to his first wife AND sired many other children!
Other illegitimate children Paid for from Cindy McCain's estate!
Breaking News!!
BUSH campaign guys had this info too and used it surreptiously against McCain. Secret info from FBI files when George Bush Sr was President. Bill Clinton team has it too!
McCain to soon adnit to this!
He was referring to the SMEARS about him being Muslim.
Anyone with an IQ over 50 can see this if they watch the damned video.
I will have perspective and patience. Promise. However, I am surprised that this movement toward Senator McCain comes at the same time that the nation's unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. This should have helped Senator Obama.
Could someone enlighten me on how job losses (it's the ecomomy ...) don't seem to affect the numbers.
Thanks.
quantman: You're damaging your credibility by engaging in the same slimy behavior that sane people hate in the McCain campaign.
I agree with Charles on something. Obama is not Muslim, and anyone that believes that or spreads that is a shitbag.
After the Democratic convention, polls were showing Obama up by as much as 9 percent on Sept. 2. Now that polls show McCain getting his post-convention bounce and leading by 3 percent in the Gallup tracking poll, we have McCain supporters predicting a landslide for McCain. I guess I can't blame them. They so rarely get to see their candidate ahead in a poll that they have to enjoy this moment while it lasts.
Oh, my goodness. Here is another vote for perspective.
Chimpy won in 04 by a couple of percentage points, & he had a much bigger national lead after his convention than McCain enjoys today after his.
Nate is right. There will be no popular vote blow-out for either side, barring a super-duper October Surprise for all October Surprises.
It will be tight nationally right down to the end.
It's the States, Stupid!
The GOP, & their blowhards here seem to believe that Palin flips CO, MI, PA, & NH into their column. Until we see some hard evidence of this (& no, cherrypicking a gender split from a convention-noisy national tracker does not count as evidence.)
Wingnuts need to stop celebrating, yelling "Gamechange-UH!"
& Obama folks need to stop worrying so much. Watch some fucking football, take the kids for a walk. If you cant help but worry so much: Sublimate, hit the phones, knock on doors.
Here is the test everyone....
Can any of you honestly say that you could ever have these words come out of your mouth usless you were a Muslim, "my Muslim faith."
By the way, there is nothing wrong with hime being a Muslim. It is perfectly acceptable. You guys on the left are slammin Muslims.
The key here is this: In 2004 Bush held his convention lead thru November, it will be interesting to see if McCain can keep the numbers around 0+1 to M+3 thru November 4th.
The state polls may be another week, because honestly we would hear the liberals say the GOP bounce is to blame for the big lead in some states.
I do think you watch these three states where Palin will benefit McCain:
Colorado-Evangelicals will bring back the grassroots and win it for McCain.
New Hampshire-Gun Lovers, that hurts Obama's 'simple strategy' since NH went to Kerry.
Michigan-Hockey Mom Central. Democratic Mayor of Detroit resigning will hurt in Surburban Detroit. Unpopular Democratic Governor. This one will be very close.
I think McCain should forget Pennsylvania as Obama should forget Florida. They could advertise a bit there, but dedicate your time to the rust belt.
Minnesota is going to be interesting to see the polls there.
PS: Obama is not a Muslim, he belonged to that radical church run by Wright... But that could hurt him, although he misspoke.
Obama's gaffe in PA didn't help either: "Even if I want to take them[your guns] away, I don't have the votes in Congress. The logical progress is that if I do have the votes, I will.
My sister in Va, said that the Obama campaign activity has been non-existent this weekend. It appears as if his campaign is re-trenching and VA will be left to the Republicans.
No, these polls do not matter much yet BUT how many Republicans have lost when tied or nearly tied this late in the campaign over the last 40 years .. zero.
Basically, Obama has to thread a very thin needle and win NV, NM and IA .. hold everything else and win via state delegations in a 269-269 EV scenario.
I think McCain has a better chance of winning PA then Obama does OH and MO and FL are very long shots to say the least.
Having two Westerners on the Republican ticket will be a big boost in CO. Since that state was even in the midst of the Obama bounce, it is probably an R+2 state.
Can any of you honestly say that you could ever have these words come out of your mouth usless you were a Muslim, "my Muslim faith.
"My opponent is not one of the ones talking about my support for abortion, it's rumour mongers, but let me make myself clear: I do not support abortion"
It is very easy, actually, and grammatically correct.
However, that does not change the fact, as vc correctly points out, that this will be used against Obama.
"
Can any of you honestly say that you could ever have these words come out of your mouth usless you were a Muslim, "my Muslim faith.""
It's pretty clear he forgot the put the word "supposed" inbetween "my" and "Muslim". It doesn't bode well for his debating skills you're a dipshit if you think this is some kind of confession.
Great analysis of the race by Glenn in Co.
Go argue with him. he is not so easily dismissed as me.
---
"Could someone enlighten me on how job losses (it's the economy ...) don't seem to affect the numbers.
Thanks."
I am sorry to say bro. The USA is sadly misguided, terribly narrow, and grossly misinformed.
I am every more sorry to say, that the above statement is probably a "best case scenario."
I think I've heard Sen. Biden say a few times, "I believe that people are very in tune with this election. I think people are more focused than they have ever been."
Well I hope so. We are going to be at the end of America if the Repubs win this time around.
"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be."—Thomas Jefferson
Yes really. There's a pic in the newspaper of trash bags full of flags that were found at Invesco ... that got turned over to McCain for rescue and adoption ... this is a PR disaster for O in Colorado. They had people digging through garbage to find paper to recycle and made a bid deal about it ... but 10,000 American flags were heading for the landfill.
Bogus Flag Story Debunked
I'm thinking about how Muslims must feel about this conversation?
I mean really...
"he's a muslim and a shitbag"
"he is not and you're a shitbag for saying it"
"I heard the muslim shitbag say he was a muslim shitbag so you are a muslim shitbag for thinking he's not a muslim shitbag"
I'm glad I'm not a Muslim.
Dismissing the Springs really as simply CR turnout is not facing reality … the event sold tickets all over the state, and was sold out. Very large military turnout too.
Glenn in Colorado,
You're lying about the flags. CNN.com is the board for you.
this election includes such important points as who has their finger on the nuclear trigger, the state of the entire health service in the us, taxes and the war in Iraq.
and yet the most popular republican talking point on here is whether someone left a few bags of paper flags in the wrong place.
Good grief.
WAR OF BASES AND A PREDICTION
I have a theory. What does McCain need to be up with his bounce to suggest he has a realistic chance of winning?
This isn't a partisan question, but a real one. Looking at Bush's numbers in 2004- he was up by 14 points with his bounce under Gallup, yet only won by 2.4 percent in a war of the bases.
Indeed, Bush won witha bigger base than McCain presently has. Therefore, what kind of bounce does McCain need to see to let us know whether he has a real shot?
My feeling right now is that if he tapers out by mid week and it stays about a dead tie, he remains structurally at a major disadvantaged to Obama's ground game and the states at play in 2004 versus 2008. Thing's I've discused before such as Ohio being run by the Democratic Party rather than the GOP this time. Etc.
Minnesota is going to be interesting to see the polls there.
I agree...I'm curious to see how many others have been driven from Coleman to Franken like my wife and I by the Palin pick.
I wasn't crazy about any party having 60 Senators in Congress, but that's out the window now.
Charles M. Kozierok said...
He was referring to the SMEARS about him being Muslim.
Anyone with an IQ over 50 can see this if they watch the damned video.
Charles, I agree with you completely. Anyone making this claim is sliming both Obama and my candidate , McCain
My new repsonse to O peeps who in droves go personal on all conservatives here.
"lee said...
Glenn-in-CO -- oh, put a sock in it about Todd"
FUCK OFF
Darien-
Lying about peoples personal faith makes you an asshole. Sorry. I'd be mad if people started a campaign saying I'm Jewish, even though I'm not an anti-semite. I'd be made because I'm not Jewish.
@ Glenn-In-CO: I'm not trying to dismiss it at all, just trying to gain perspective.
I don't doubt that McCain/Palin is a big draw in any state. I am not a rabid fringe radical. Center-left small business owner Dem here. Thx and have a pleasant day
Actually I am registered IND. Oops what a gotcha moment! [/snark]
definitely a depressing day of polling - but I'm hoping that this is just a convention bounce and that once people realize the Republican convention was all hot air and they still represent 4 more years of the last 8 years that things will go back to "normal." it just blows my mind that this race is even close, much less mccain ahead. what in the hell is wrong with people? how bad do things have to get before people wake up?
floridagop: You're a credit to your side of the aisle. Seriously.
Folks, don't let the slime merchants get away with this stuff. Educate people, show them how desperate the liars are.
Right Wing Slime Merchants Test the Intelligence of American Voters - #1.
Take a deep breath everyone. Obama wasn't up 9 and McCain isn't up 3. Wait a few days for the bounces to dissipate.
Obama/Biden will win if the Democrats focus on the economy and the McCain/Palin will focus on some Greek columns.
By the way, this is the real reason why Obama will win the election:
http://edgeofthewest.wordpress.com/2008/09/05/change-in-voter-registration/
Reelgeist,
Everything about this race since early June suggests remarkable stability.
Now we're in a moment of volatility due to the conventions and VP picks being so condensed.
There is nothing that will convince except actual facts in the future that the polling will eventually settle back into pre-convention pattern of Obama +2-4 nationally.
Palin is a wildcard, but again barring any facts and eliminating spin, I think she cuts both ways and will be a wash. Moreover, a VP nomination has never been a game changer, so historically there is just no argument Palin seriously helping or hurting.
The interesting thing about the 60 seat thing, if it did happen by some freak result (personally I think its way beyond the Dems, I think Nate has it about right now), is that its not only fillibuster proofing, its veto proofing. Just imagine McCain being elected but also a 60 strong Democratic Senate- McCain gets his knees taken away from him right out of the gate. (If the Dems did manage to get upto 60 though, I think we can be fairly safe in assuming barack Obama will have been elected President)
@charles
agreed, and I'd add vc to the list.
What is the big deal if Obama were a Muslim? He says he is not. Let him practice what he preaches.
That his heritage is undeniably partly Muslim is undenaialbe and adds to his diversified character, universal perspeactive and broad-based appeal.
To be frank, the only kind of Chrisitan he has ever been is Rev. Wright one. He might as well be a Muslim as one of those as far as masses are concerned.
He left his Church monts ago and announced an intention not to pick another one until Januar, congruent with his innuaguration?
I couldnot be without my Church for a half year. As the old spiritual says, "Simply to thy Cross I cling!"
Obama will lose over sh** like this.
Don't much matter to me, as long as he loses.
Saying that could hurt him--with fear mongering tone, not simply writing the sentence--means that you are pushing a vile rumor and are a scumbag.
I've always thought of myself as independent, but it's true that I could never vote for a Republican in a national election because of the crazy scumbags on their fringes that they've decided to pander to at all costs. I can disagree with anyone on any idea and still respect them, but that's not what they want. They want fear to rule so they will always have power.
@markymark
Oh, I'm not counting Obama out yet. But even if Obama pulled to a double digit lead, we'd stick with Franken. McCain's extreme vision of the Republican Party certainly has no place for us.
Yeah, that's it, the Obama campaign says that it didn't happen, so that must be true.
The only worse proof would be reference to a Dkos blog entry.
There is picture showing the flags in the dumpster. They should have checked before firing so strongly on this.
The only thing that comes from this is it doesn't bode well for his debating skills. It was a fuck up not an "admission".
Could someone enlighten me on how job losses (it's the ecomomy ...) don't seem to affect the numbers.
Easy, same way we are only now seeing the positive reaction to Palin/McCain now. These polls are running 3-day averages, and news like that takes a couple days to penetrate.
What has to happen is the economic news (unemployment + government takeover of Fannie Mae et al) has to sink in, along with each campaign's reaction to that news. Expect to see it start to reflect in the numbers Tuesday or Wednesday.
The red states are getting more red. The national trackers mean squat. Just the same, expel the south anyway. Not because it's absolutely necessary, but just because it's preferable.
Oh, good grief.
PALIN MAKES THE RED STATES REDDER.... and this is reflected in the national trackers.
It makes no difference whatever to the EV count.
Get a grip, people.
McCain obviously had a good polling day, plus a good Obama day dropped out of the moving average. I'd say McCain-Palin has the strategic initiative. They've thrown something new out there, and Obama-Biden are playing defense.
But Obama has been playing defense for months now. Democrats haven't played offense since 1992, and that was far more a "Bill Clinton" skill than a "Democratic Party" skill.
"agreed, and I'd add vc to the list."
Yeah, I'll add him to the list too. His cheerleading annoys me but I haven't seen him go in for this smear BS, and that's far more important.
Our nation can't take much more of this stuff.
some of these pollsters really need to go back and study their job.
Rasmussen fiddles with numbers thinking that alligning raw data to theoretical party allegiance is fine. No it isn't, and they know it perfectly well. Once more I have done this:
If I choose their August allegiance hypothesis to adjust their current raw data it's Obama 49 Mc 46 !
Somehow they make us believe that party affiliation varies day by day enormously. It's impossible.
The two step polling, first poll affiliation, then poll the sample and finally adjust the data to affiliation is pure ridicule.
Time to use raw data and ampler samples.
"The only thing that comes from this is it doesn't bode well for his debating skills. It was a fuck up not an "admission"."
Different situation. The audience can't make a 9-second clip out of context, and in context it makes sense. He'd also be using a very different tone.
But I agree that it shows a lack of caution. His honesty is refreshing but his confidence sometimes gets the better of him.
I love all the garbage prognistication based on tracking polls in which you have no idea who they polled or what party ID they used or or what cross section of the country or anything else about it. Natonal tracking polls are inherent garbage. State polls matter and there are no new ones as of now.
It matters where your support is. I have shown the actual raw numbers many times , in a 50/50 election in 2000 if you switch 50,000 votes out of 100million nationally either Gore or Bush could have had 320 ec votes which would have been a comfortable EC vote win. There are no bonus pts for winning a state by 5pt instead of 1pt.
I wouldn't be surprised if Palin brings in Ohio, but I don't think she'll have any regional impact elsewhere. What she does do, though, is help the bandwagon in general. By putting the Republicans on the offensive, Palin makes the ticket look stronger.
Americans prefer the stronger candidate. Democrats tend to extol and exemplify weakness. It's a problem, to put it mildly.
BREAKING! BREAKING!
-----------------------
2000 George Bush Campign Info Dissemination about McCain 100% True!!!!!!!!!!!
--- McCain does have a child he fathered with an African American
--- Ask George Bush and Karl Rove
ThIS INFO came from George Bush Sr from FBI/CIA files on McCain as McCain used to sleep around on his foreign travels too!
CURRENTLY, DNA tests being performed to disclose 100% valid info to American public and the world!
Not one, but many illegitimate children by McCain from his Nany Days in Asia as well!1
Hair Samples of McCain's hair being used to complete DNA tests!!
Bill CLinton teams October surprise for America!
McCain will say: Look I always I slept around and I said a Zillion times that my Navy days were spent incessantly looking for female companionship (exact quote)!
Good Luck Commander In Chief McCain!!!!
Two things will happen for sure if McPow and Buffy are elected.
1) The draft will be reinstated
2) a War with Iran will start within 60 days of them taking office....
btw Nate. How much traffic do you get? My site is getting hit by a lot of traffic right now and I'm wondering what web host I should move to... :) Any hints?
"By putting the Republicans on the offensive, Palin makes the ticket look stronger."
But she makes *McCain* look *weaker*. In fact, he's becoming a laughingstock over it.
And people generally vote the top of the ticket.
This is polling site so why can't people accurately report the real polling?
Rasmussen LV model shows McCain moving from a low of 43% on August 30, to 46% now.
So, really, not much has happened at all according to Rasmussen. Obama has drifted down 2% from his peak of 48% to 46%, while McCain has risen +3 into a tie. All that could simply be due to the blizzard of coverage of Republicans resulting from the convention and constant Palin coverage. Hell, it could even be polling error.
In short, if you believe Rasmussen there hasn't been much of a bounce for either candidate. When the news is dominated by one party for a while, their polling increases by 3-4% (Obama went from a low of 44% up to 48% and then down to 46%).
McCain has basically bounced up to 46%.
This is the big bounce? This election so far is tilted towards Obama. Obama's biggest lead was +8% back in June, and more recently, +5%. McCain has never led since Obama claimed the nomination in June.
Gallup is more volatile of course as it has been all election. It bounces up and down very quickly in unpredictable ways because it measures RVs and uses no voter screens at all. Even here, however, Obama has led by +9, while McCain's biggest lead is now, at +3%.
Likes Jazz:
I think the jobless numbers have not fully perked and have gotten lost in the whole Palin persecution meme which seems to be ths story of the weekend, along with Flag gate and "I am a Muslim Gate".
Another point: Economists will tell you that unemployment is a lagging indicator of economic health. The fact that GDP grew by 3.5 last quarter and that the previosu two quarters growth numbers were reivsed up tells you more about the present health of the economy. In truth while that may be fact, it is probably too sophisticated a message for the avergae voter. If unemployment goes up in Sept, it will be a much bigger story. I am not sure if we will see Oct nos. in time for ED.
It's like McCain mixing up sunni and shia. It's not because he doesn't know the difference, it's because he screwed up.
If we had cameras on us 24/7 I'm sure we'd say something pretty dumb eventually.
And Palin has just as bat-shit crazy a church, but it's full of white people so Republicans are not afraid of that, in fact think it's completely fine. That is not questioning religion. It's race-baiting through thinly veiled code talk. You know it, and if you don't you need an upgrade in your brain chip from your Republican overlords so you're privy to the strategy.
Why would Obama's patriotism be questioned?
Race Baiting.
Why would Obama's christianity be questioned?
Race Baiting.
Saying a man who's a goat-herder's son, went to school on scholarship, grew up in a single parent home and ended up with many student loans after going to Harvard Law is an elitist?
Race-Baiting.
Just own it. You may not think of yourself as a racist but you are using race for your own disgusting desires.
There is picture showing the flags in the dumpster. They should have checked before firing so strongly on this.
so someone who was willing to steal the flags couldn't have put them in a dumpster and taken a photo?
no, of course not....
Obama made a significant gaffe on TV today when he said he had considered joining the military but decided not to. I figure the Republicans will be all over that one in short order.
You Obama bloggers know that you lost the election for Obama yourself don't you?
It's your own fault he will now lose.
When McCain named her I felt for sure he had just lost by choosing an unknown woman from Alaska.
You Obama sheep felt threatened and smelled fresh conservative blood in the water.
You rolled out the fastest, harshest, most disgusting smear machine in American political history. You tried to crush her out and force her to resign before she even had a chance to speak.
But Sarah is much tougher than you bargained for. You forgot the media golden rule of "good or bad all publicity is good".
You made 40,000,000 people watch her. She rocked and you made her a star.
You lost the election for Obama because Democrats always find a way to lose. If you just ignored her and wrote her off like most of us did at first she never would have had the launching pad that you yourselves gave her.
Thank you so much. You will have another chance in 2012... but I don't think Palin and Jindal will let you have it then either.
Cora,
Pollsters have been playing games with party ID all summer. Rasmussen, CBS, etc..CBS in a 3 day period shifted 6 less for Dems, and raised Repu by 5...in 3 days who's kidding who?
It is in the media's interest to protray a clsoe election and they will do that and change numbers to that end. The yknow very few look at the poll internals or crosstabs to see their slight of hand. Rasmussen and CBS have been caught read handed this week but 99% of people would never know.
Nate, please explain to these dipsticks, that the national number does matter. The way the swing states and other factors arrange, neither candidate can lose the national popular vote by more that about .75% and still win the electoral vote.
Get a grip. National polls reflect the state of the race before the state polls. Unless you simultaneously polled all of the swing states, they are behind the national poll number.
Now this doesn't mean anything now as to who will eventually win, but please stop the national polls don't mean anything.
If the media is manipulating this (I don't think they are) wouldn't looking really freaking stupid after election day if their polls are way off make them WANT to be accurate?
Obama made a significant gaffe on TV today when he said he had considered joining the military but decided not to. I figure the Republicans will be all over that one in short order.
I'm obviously missing something. How is that a gaffe?
Palin has just as bat-shit crazy a church, but it's full of white people so Republicans are not afraid of that, in fact think it's completely fine.
More importantly, the Republican "news" media doesn't consider it a story. This is because Palin's minister is a white, right-wing evangelical, which is deemed acceptable. A black liberal is deemed threatening.
Obama made a significant gaffe on TV today when he said he had considered joining the military but decided not to. I figure the Republicans will be all over that one in short order.
How is that a gaffe?
VC:
You are real good at getting inisde Obama's head.
Was it you who provided that nifty explanation on Muchelle Obama's "for the first time in my adult life i am really priud to be an American" line?
I really don't think Obama needs your help.
You are sounding like the best placed concern troll in blogoshpere history.
I'm still optimistic for Obama, but I have never, ever thought (for any of the Democratic candidates) that this would be anything other than an election-night squeaker, hinging on one or other razor-thin split swing state.
I just think that right now, a billion factors tend to evenly divide voters.
I'm obviously missing something. How is that a gaffe?
Oh boy. Too many Democrats are way too clueless. And I say that as a big-time Democrat. Look, he's running against a war hero, and the U.S. is at war. Probably not a real good moment to tell an interviewer, on national television, that you once "considered" joining the military but didn't.
It only reinforces the Democratic Party's vulnerability on that whole military-foreign policy-toughness set of issues. And it shows how Obama is vulnerable to thinking that an interview is just a conversation, as opposed to a one-act play.
Darien Crow,
Right the victim Palin. Give me a break. More like the liar Palin. The media persecuted her(bullshit) b/c in the first 3 sentences on National TV she told 2 lies. About the bridge to nowhere and earmarks. The fact that the Repubs as yourself don't belive her record matters tells america why you Republicons should not be in office. The utter hypocrisy of the GOP is mind boggling, the fact that you don't see it, points to your lack of intelligence.
peterkent, Obama is kind of busy right now, and most Sundays will be on the road and so not able to practice his faith in one church.
Lets study the amount of islam in Obama'a ancestry shall we? Oh go on then! His families tribe, the Luo, are traditionally christian. Obama's grandfather converted to the muslim faith. Barack Obama Snr was an atheist. So the 'islamic' part of his ancestry barely lasted a generation. His middle name is taken from his father (the atheist's0 name, who in tunr was given it by his father, who like Muhammed Ali later, adopted the 'Hussein' part of his name when he converted to Islam.
Let me quote briefly from Obama's 2004 DNC speech 'My [arents gave me the African name 'Barack'... believing that in a tolerant America, your name was no barrier to succes.'
Wait till flag gate hists the Hannity and Colmes next week. it will become a national story of unprecedented proportions for what it will say about the disgraceful lack of patriotism and lack of respect for the Country by Obama and the people who work for him.
I doubt if the Sword of Islam would have be accord such disesepect.
"Race-Baiting.
Just own it. You may not think of yourself as a racist but you are using race for your own disgusting desires."
Yep, you got that right.
Yesterday we had some guy show up, claimed to be a Democrat and care about the issues, but ignored everyone who pointed out that Obama had better policies and track record on everything he claimed mattered. Kept going on about how he felt more "comfortable" with McCain and Clinton but not Obama.
I made one thinly veiled reference that maybe there was something else about Obama that made him feel "uncomfortable" and he immediately got offended and left.
It's out there.
Oh boy. Too many Democrats are way too clueless. And I say that as a big-time Democrat.
You're being overly cynical. Considering joining the military but ultimately deciding against it isn't exactly exotic.
I'm fed up to the teeth with people acting like the military is the only honorable thing anyone can do with their lives.
Just like the "we need to vote for the girl next door" bullshit, I'm tired of bowing and scraping to anyone who ever put on a uniform.
It's a tough job and they do it well and they have our gratitude, but lately it seems like they think they should be a privileged class or something. Enough alrady.
Obama's reference to "My Muslim faith" was a devastating Freudian slip.
As it is, he is apparently the only "Christian" in the United States who not only has two Arabic names but also had both a Muslim father and a Muslim stepfather (who adopted him).
That's why RepubliCons should not be office, they are fake patriots. People are losing their houses, 6.1% unemployment, 11% inflation and Republitards are worried about their operatioves stealing flags and making up a fake story.
VC:
Yopu are a closet anti-semite. the approprioate response is to be bemused, not mad, if someone said you were Jewish and it were not true.
Considering joining the military but ultimately deciding against it isn't exactly exotic.
But for Obama to volunteer it to an interviewer on national TV was foolish.
"As it is, he is apparently the only "Christian" in the United States who not only has two Arabic names but also had both a Muslim father and a Muslim stepfather (who adopted him)."
And these are the assholes who consider it 'attacking' Sarah Palin when someone points out that she flatly lied about her *record*.
The GOP is coming unhinged.
PeteKent: It is a powerful message and trunps the Potemkin Village of change put up by the Obama campaign and the Democrat establishment.
As Biden put it today, what is McCain's "change" in policy? On economics, it's tax cuts for everyone. That's the Bush policy (with even bigger budget holes than Obama's proposals). On health care, its "let the market deal with it" (even with plenty of evidence that the market simply doesn't put incentives in the right place for health care delivery). That's the Bush policy. On foreign policy, it's don't talk to people who haven't already agreed to do what we tell them to do. That's the Bush policy.
As Moynihan said, everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts. Seems to me that Republicans are very happy with their Potemkin Village, and that's why Biden was calling McCain and Palin out on their "change" message.
PeteKent:
Here is the schedule for employment info releases:
http://www.bls.gov/bls/bls2008sched.pdf
Looks like all of the Oct. 08 (or "end of 3rd Quarter") news will come after the election.
The metro and state area numbers for Sept. 08 may be significant to certain states down the stretch. It is worth noting that among the battlegrounds, it's fairly well-known that Michigan, Ohio, and Nevada are doing a lot worse than the national average while NM, Colorado, and NH are doing better.
But for Obama to volunteer it to an interviewer on national TV was foolish.
Again...why?
Wait till flag gate hists the Hannity and Colmes next week. it will become a national story of unprecedented proportions for what it will say about the disgraceful lack of patriotism and lack of respect for the Country by Obama and the people who work for him.
The Republicans are masters at this sort of stuff. Which, to me, is fair game. The Democrats, on the other hand, operate as if we're running a Student Council election at Sweetwater High.
Seriously, people of both sides, these trackers mean virtually nothing. Yes, McCain got a bounce. Yes, he's now ahead. This will probably go away soon enough, as much as I'd like to see it stay. I just wonder if any of the gains McCain made will be permanent. We just need to wait for the state polls to come out.
"Yopu are a closet anti-semite. the approprioate response is to be bemused, not mad, if someone said you were Jewish and it were not true."
Petekent,
Normally I ignore you because you are the biggest moron on this site by about 6 light years. However, I need to reply this one time.
I'm Jewish. VC is not a closet anti-Semite. You are a piece of shit for suggesting it.
People like you are scum of the worst sort.
jakam, I already answered that question. My answer isn't going to change.
I think we all need a good laugh.
For the simple fact that I am still laughing at this post I feel we all need to read it again.
Mule Rider said...
Just asking a question that's been in my head out loud here. Anybody feel free to chime in. Has {insert name of any pissed off liberal blogger here} ever made an intelligent post? All I've ever seen are comments along the lines of, "Damn stupid fucking Republithugs! Spin and lies. McSame is a tool and an old bigot! Republicans are all racist, gay-hating scum. Lying right wing trolls always come on and spread stupid bullshit! Fuck them. Suck me off. I hate the world! I hate conservatives. Karl Rove is a fucker!"
There is no flag story. It's false. Some McPalin drones stole excess flags, and then try to make up bloody shirt stories.
And as someone who served in the military, unlike most Republican leaders we've known, let me say clearly that you are an un-American coward, fraud, and sniveling freak for trying to perpetuate such a myth.
God damn any of you reprobates who try to sully a nation with such a base falsehood.
At least Barack Obama, unlike the VP of the Republican ticket, never publicly swore allegiance to a literally anti-American separatist party whose founder so hated the Union that he wished to be buried outside it, a wish granted once his hateful terrorist leanings were extinguished in a plastic explosives deal 'gone wrong'.
I think there's some basic arithmetic I'm not getting here. If Obama was up by 1 before the conventions, and got a 5 point bounce and was up 6, then if McCain got a 5 point bounce in his turn it should be back to Obama +1. But it seems that McCain ia going to peak at +3 or +4. Doesn't that mean he got a 9 or 10 point bounce?
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