Although the topline results don't make it obvious, it appears that John McCain had a fairly strong night of polling in the daily tracking polls, which are the only numbers we have to look at today.
The Gallup tracker now shows Barack Obama leading by 2 points, down from 4 a day ago. When I attempt to estimate the daily results from the topline numbers, however, I get the following:Wednesday: Obama +7.8So Obama's numbers are being propped up by a strong night of polling on Wednesday, which will cycle out tomorrow. He also held up relatively well on Thursday following Sarah Palin's speech (note: our estimate of his Thursday numbers has been revised slightly upward from yesterday's figures because of a methodological improvement I made to my tracking poll algorithm). But yesterday, McCain had a good night, most likely leading by somewhere in the range of 4 points. There is a good chance that tomorrow's Gallup numbers will show a tie or a McCain lead.
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2
As for Rasmussen , it actually has Barack Obama gaining a point, and moving into a 3-point lead. However, it still looks like McCain may have had a relatively good night on Friday. My tracking poll algorithm will have more difficulty with the Rasmussen tracker than the Gallup tracker because Rasmussen uses a more complicated weighting procedure (i.e. weighting by party ID), meaning that we're a step further away from seeing "raw" numbers. But with grain of salt, here is what I show:Wednesday: Obama +4.9Once again, I would caution against overinterpreting any of this. Conventions should produce bounces -- they are the equivalent of tens of millions of dollars in free advertising time. What we don't know is how to contextualize these bounces. An average convention bounce is about 6 points, but we don't know how the Democratic and Republican conventions interact with one another, particularly as it affects the timing of the respective bounces. Moreover, Fridays (and Saturdays) are tough nights to poll. My hunch, as I've stated before, is that whatever numbers McCain winds up with over the weekend, Barack Obama will probably be polling a couple of points ahead of those numbers by the end of the upcoming week.
Thursday: Obama +3.8
Friday: Obama +0.3
9.06.2008
Today's Polls, 9/6
@ 3:40 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
320 comments
I'm actually pretty surprised at the size of the apparent bounce, given the lackluster speech McCain gave.
Nate's right. Wait a few days to let the noise settle down.
I'm not. The timing of it meant a lot of low-info voters who had up til now been pretty much ignoring it all tuned in and watched his speech after the game.
That speech was only lackluster in comparison, and if they hadn't seen the other speeches to compare too, it's like, yah.
The Rasmussen numbers look a little funny...Much bigger bounce for McCain than Palin.
Chalk it up to noise? We'll have more information in the next week, to say the real effects.
Nate you are seriously the man.
I suppose you're right - it is a bit premature to speculate right now.
I'm skeptical of any polls showing much of a GOP convention bounce. Nobody likes Palin outside of the Republican base, and maybe a few hundred thousand hockey moms in Michigan. Last week was mostly a wash in convention coverage. And McCain's message just isn't that powerful.
Gallup is an evangelical, who uses his polls as a "ministry" instead of faithfully and accurately reporting public opinion. Yesterday on Rasmussen, they were showing a picture of Obama next to a picture of a monkey wearing a similar facial expression: Rasmussen is a Republican pollster in all but name.
Just not buying that there's much of a GOP convention bounce at all this year.
Dan Warren: "I'm actually pretty surprised at the size of the apparent bounce, given the lackluster speech McCain gave."
Me too. Why would McCain's polling have improved on Friday, given the real energy came with Palin on Wednesday?
It's interesting that the net effect of both conventions will probably be zero. How much did they spend?
Senate GOP Sets Filibuster Record
Elizabeth Dole is a Senate Parasite
The Nielsen ratings may tell part of the story. Fox led substantially during the RNC.
Exactly - if this bounce is real (and I'm not saying it is), I would've expected to see it after Palin's speech rather than McCain's. The thing about McCain is that he's a very well-known quantity. People know his record, and they know his history. The only two things that I could see really coming out of his speech that would cause people to change their minds are a massive dose of charsima or some very compelling policy directions. I didn't see either of those in his speech. I didn't think it was terrible, mind you, and I can't see it scaring anybody away, I just didn't see either of the things that I would expect to sway swing voters.
Palin, on the other hand, was an unknown quantity. There was room for her to help or hurt McCain's chances, and given the speech I saw I expected more of the former. I didn't think there was much substance there, but she sure as heck is charismatic. I would've expected that any swing voters who would be swayed by that would have been...swayed by that.
Anyway, we might as well be reading tea leaves at this point. More time and more numbers are what we need.
Obama's polling didn't improve much the day after his convention speech, and his biggest bounce occurred in polling taken this Monday. So the delayed reaction to McCain's or Palin's speech does not really surprise me. Also, McCain's speech wasn't exciting, but it looked like they were going for the sober/serious FDR-esque Presidential there rather than the energetic/inspirational Reagan-esque Presidential of Obama. Both might work for different swing audiences.
My guess is that McCain will be up in both trackers in the polling released on Monday and *maybe* stay there through 9/11. By the debates I would expect Obama to be 2-3 points up.
The real question is whether the Palin pick and conventions have rallied the bases, bumping McCain's numbers up in red states and Obama's up in blue states. That would be a net win for McCain as he just needs to play defense. Of course, even then he couldn't win with a 2-point Obama lead nationally.
I'm still worried about the debates, especially the decision to have the town hall forum for the final one. Why would we ever have agreed to that? It plays to McCain's strength.
So, the point of all this:
It's irrelevant. I'm sure we'll have a 400-post thread about daily numbers and what might have caused them, but seriously...until things stabilize in a week or two, it's all just mindless chatter. I suppose most of us are too involved to not discuss things, and that is the point of this site, but be careful not to ascribe too much meaning into such minor things.
Any ideas on when we may get some juicy state polls? These daily tracking polls have interested me (since I am a political junkie) but don't seem to mean much without knowing what's going in individual states
"Obama's polling didn't improve much the day after his convention speech"
Uh, that's because it was already very high after Clinton's speech. But Palin didn't do shit for McCain's numbers.
"his biggest bounce occurred in polling taken this Monday."
That was probably because of Palin, and that's not relevant to the RNC bump.
Of course there would be bigger numbers for McCain than for Palin! People vote for President NOT VP!
No matter what the hype for Palin, good or bad, there's just NO historical evidence that VPs matter in the end.
The numbers might bounce around a bit, but it will come down to a simple question: McCain or Obama?
The last VP candidate that swung even a single state was Lyndon Johnson winning Texas for Kennedy back in 1960.
Even Dan "you're no Jack Kennedy" Quayle couldn't sink G.H.W. Bush or lift Dukakis.
Quayle was considered completely un-qualified to be President by an overwhelming majority of American voters. This was demonstrated in polls at the time. Democrats tried to attack Bush on his judgment in picking Quayle, and tried the "heartbeat away" theory.
It flat didn't work at all because people said "well Quayle isn't running for President, and hopefully, he'll never be President."
Geraldine Ferarro generated TONS of interest, but didn't really help Mondale.
The same here. Lots of temporary buzz, and endless media fascination about the "new star."
But, people simply don't vote for VP. Some idiots might like Palin, but few will vote for McCain because of it. Republicans WILL vote for McCain by an overwhelming margin, but he had 88% of them BEFORE the Democratic convention even started and has slightly more now. That's why his bounce is muted. He was preaching to the choir. At most his efforts were worth a short-lived bounce of a couple of a few points.
The upside potential for McCain is NEVER going to be close to 50% unless he wins a much larger share of Independents.
Sarah Palin won't ever be President. She'll go back to Alaska and wait for another 4 years. Then in 2012 we might get to see what a real campaigner she is. My guess is that the current love-affair Republicans have with her will be seriously muted by then, but we'll have to wait and see.
You're so partisan, Nate,saying that McCain is doing well! ;p
the townhall debate is the middle one. The first one is foreing policy the last one is the economy.
Also, just because we know McCain backwards and forwards doesn't mean that everybody does. I bet there are plenty of low information voters who don't follow primaries and so wouldn't really know much about him until they saw the speech and, possibly more importantly, the POW stories.
Note that McCain's one-day bounce in the tracking polls is almost twice as high for registered voters (Gallup) as it is for likely voters (Rasmussen).
BTW, Nate, what's with this Diageo tracker? Any hints on how reliable it is based on other polling they've done?
The only "noise" you are hearing are the wails of the Obama campaign lamenting; Why didn't we choose Hillary?!
As I said yesterday on this board, you boys are clueless.
The McCain speech is meaningless - this is all about Palin. There is a massive movement of white working class (no college) women, both independent and Democrats, that are moving to McCain-Palin. Also, as an ALL WESTERN ticket the states of Colorado, Montana, and Nevada are now moving safely into the McCain column.
The reason you boys can't see this is you have no historical perspective (I don't think they teach history in the schools anymore). America is a center-right country and they are all coming home. McCain up 2 to 3 pts on Monday.
P.S. The debates won't make any difference this year - nada, zilch, nothing. It is the year of the white working class woman!
Cugel: Excellent post. And I agree about Palin -- that puppy love fest we saw this past week is going to fade very quickly.
And if any of the scandals explode, look out.
McCain had a good speech in content, and would have been very effective had it not been for the background and delivery issues.
As for Gallup, I think polling RVs is more volatile, and there has been a lot of fluctuation with it.
If McCain is up by more than two next week, Obama is in trouble. I'm expecting it to be really close heading into the debates.
Rasmussen has had this in a range of -1 to +6 for Obama for over three months.
It's interesting and amusing to see everybody get all worked up over a couple of days of tracking polls. Whether McCain or Obama got bounces out of their conventions is fairly immaterial. It's also hard to determine the size because of the compressed schedule and the natural variability inherent in the tracking polls (recall that they have been moving within a range of about 7-8 points for a couple of months now). I think the lack of state polls has driven people to overreact to the trackers which, in other circumstances, would be largely ignored.
Interesting that McCain should get such a bump out of Gallup, but not so much out of Ras. But then Gallup has had the odd day of high McCain polling and then settling back. I think it probably means that Gallup will be closer than those of us who would prefer Obama winning would like.
I don't remember all four North Central states being 90% or better, nor Pennsylvania for that matter.
Plus, it gets harder and harder to believe the low Florida figure. We really need a state poll down there this next week.
I suspect Friday's bounce isn't just on the strength of McCain's speech, but also residual Palin as well.
Yesterday's numbers were 1/3 post-Palin and almost nil post-McCain.
Today's are 2/3 post Palin and 1/3 post-McCain.
Barack tops fifty-
dimming hopes for McCain
bulldog in hiding
"The only "noise" you are hearing are the wails of the Obama campaign lamenting; Why didn't we choose Hillary?!"
Funny, the only people *I* ever hear say this is Republicans trolling this board.
"There is a massive movement of white working class (no college) women, both independent and Democrats, that are moving to McCain-Palin."
Evidence?
I happened to dig into the Democracy Corps poll Nate linked yesterday, just out of curiosity. It showed that Biden gave significantly better more likely / less likely splits to Obama than Palin did to McCain.
"The reason you boys can't see this is you have no historical perspective"
No, actually they don't see it because it's not there.
The GOP will undoubtedly continue their 'smart guilt' campaign strategy, and you actually seem to think it will work perfectly. I have a bit more faith in my fellow Americans than that.
Somebody help me understand why national tracking polls even matter when its 50 state elections that determine the winner. Shouldnt we be focusing more on the individual states polling rather than on these overview polls to speculate on whos going on win?
michael said: " There is a massive movement of white working class (no college) women, both independent and Democrats, that are moving to McCain-Palin."
Nonsense.
I'm beginning to think Nate's numbers are lagging a little bit, or at least the model has some inherent flaws. Obama has a 90% chance of winning Pennsylvania? I think it's clear that he's the favorite there, but the fact is that both campaigns are acknowledging that it's a battleground. Biden and Obama immediately started campaigning there after the GOP convention. If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were as safe for the Dems as this site's model projects, we wouldn't see much campaigning happening in them. Barack just started pulling his ads in Georgia but turning up the heat in Penn. That should tell us something. We don't have much access to the campaigns' internal polls, so it's unclear what the real picture looks like. Based on behavior we're seeing, I'm betting the Obama campaign's polls now show only small leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and some of the targetted red states slipping away altogether.
I'm as left-wing as they come but I think people are severely underestimating how successful of a convention the GOP put on, and ultimately how brilliant of a pick Palin was. Enthusiasm will determine what percentage of the people who say they'll show up actually will. Palin represents an unprecedented attempt to appeal to the evangelical base (and, I would say, a solidification in the Neocon-Christian Right alliance). Now Christian conservative enthusiasm, which had been very low, actually should match the enthusiasm college students and blacks feel about Obama. Don't be surprised if they manage top turnout from this demographic above the already sky-high 2004 numbers. For about one day I thought she was a ridiculous, stupid pick, but all that really happened here is that Karl Rove proved how much smarter he is than all of us.
First of all, Michael, we are not "all boys" here--yes even women engage in political discussion, so please show some respect. Plus your "analysis," if we should call it that, is interesting. How do you know that thee is a massive movement of women moving to McCain-Palin. I in fact do not see this happening and think you are engaging in some wishful thinking.
Plus, do you have some evidence to base your claim that because of the "ALL WESTERN ticket the states of Colorado, Montana, and Nevada are now moving safely into the McCain column?"
I happen to be out in one of those Western states and I can tell you on the ground, that is surely NOT the case
As hurricanes near-
questions are filling the mind
why can't she answer?
From the Democracy Corp poll.
Numbers, first for whole nation, second for battleground states.
Biden influence on voting for Obama:
Total more likely 49 48
Total less likely 36 36
Palin influence on voting for McCain:
Total more likely 45 44
Total less likely 42 43
There are also what I presume are followup questions; they say "SPLIT C" which I assume means they only asked people who were undecided? Anyway, they spell out the careers and accomplishments of each candidate and then ask again. After that, it's 57/30 for Biden, 51/41 for Palin.
slothdog,
They don't matter except to the desperate that cling to ever tick despite no movement in state polls. It matters where your support is. I showed many times that changing less than 50,000 votes in a 50/50 election like 2000 either candidate could have had 310+ EC votes, a comfortable EC vote win. There are no bonus pts by winning evangelical wingnuts states by 5 extra points b/c they have a fellow religious fanatic like Palin. The dimwit trolls don't undersatnd that.
dailydem:
I'm still worried about the debates, especially the decision to have the town hall forum for the final one. Why would we ever have agreed to that? It plays to McCain's strength.
I'd caution against buying into the spin. The McCain campaign has spent months trying to convince everyone that because Obama is gives really great speeches, he must suck at town halls and McCain will win them. But Obama has done very well in town halls. McCain has had some excruciating moments the few times when town hall audiences weren't carefully screened, and it'll be interesting to see how he does now that his old off-the-cuff style has been trained out of him in favor of traditional message discipline.
As October nears,
who registers the voters?
the winner, surely.
I don't know what methodology Nate is using to estimate the nightly numbers, guessing it is some statistical analysis of what the most likely numbers are, but my 'eyeball guessing' doesn't have anywhere near the swings in polling in it. I basically just try to approximate the smoothest numbers to give the 3 day rounded average. My last 10 days for gallup are 52, 49, 47, 49, 50, 50, 48, 48, 47, 46 and for Rasmussen they are 49, 49, 48, 50, 50, 52, 49, 49, 47, 50 - there just are no 'big' days to fall out. We'll see what the trackers say tomorrow, but basically Nate is saying that if Obama's lead doesn't go down by at least 2 points tomorrow in Gallup, (7.8 day expiring /3 then rounded) then he is leading for the day, because of such a good day expiring out of the 3 day average. Similar for Rasmussen with it's 4.9 Obama lead expiring out.
At least we don't have to wait long to find out. But it does go to show you how fuzzy it is to try to estimate the daily numbers from the 3 day average where such greatly different numbers both average out to the 3 day averages.
This race is going to boil down to the debates and to Palin going one on one with the press without being scripted. The wild card is also troopergate for Palin/McCain.
it'll also be interesting to see how McCain does when he has an opponent there who will challenge him (I bloody hope so anyway!) when he lies
Well, both parties are rallying their respectives bases.
For the Republicans, that means going from circa 90% support for McCain to 95%.
For the Democrats, that means going from about 80% to 90%.
And there are a lot more Democrats now.
Personally, I do not understand why the Democrats don't play the polarization card, hard, this time around.
There is vastly more upside for the blue team than the red to do so.
Then again, why spend money duplicating the hard work of the Republicans? :)
There is ONLY one question this election: "Are there more of us or are there more of you?"
That's all. There is no middle, as Karl Rove said. I hate to say that he was right, when he should be in Federal Prison right now on obstruction of justice charges, and I hoped this year would be different that we could have an election about issues rather than about images, and personalities, but he was right.
The only number that really matters is Party ID. Right now, it's around Democratic +5.7%, a larger difference even than in 2006 when Democrats won huge gains.
All Obama has to do is to attack McCain more vigorously to rally the base, because his base is larger, just like Bush's was in 2004.
McCain is faced with an almost impossible task, to do two contradictory things:
1. Rally the party base by a months' long series of personal attack ads to Swift-boat Obama. That's been accomplished. He's now got around 90%.
2. Win Independents by around 6 or 7% to offset the large Party ID advantage Democrats have, or somehow prevent Obama from consolidating the Democratic base.
3. But, we know from 2004 that Independents DON'T respond to Swift-boat attacks: Bush only got 46% of them in 2004 to John Kerry's 47% and right now Obama is leading among Independents. The only thing that would allow McCain to win Independents by a significant margin would be to abandon the personal attacks. But, that would depress his base and he'd lose ground.
McCain can't can't be "non-partisan" and highly partisan at the same time.
He can't run as a "Maverick" and "non-partisan" to win Independents and run endless personal attacks on Obama to rally the base without alienating part of his target voters, who specifically like him because of his "non-partisan" image.
Bush didn't have that problem. He didn't care what Democrats or Independents thought. Only the base mattered. This year, only Obama's base matters.
It's encouraging that he's now got around 85%+ of Democrats, more party loyalty than Kerry had after his convention. As the fall campaign progresses, the polarization continues, with Democrats increasingly lining up with Obama and Republicans all going with McCain and Independents split down the middle, just like 2000, just like 2004.
This election comes down to "who's base is bigger" who's going to win? Not much doubt about that one.
Nate, you can't be right on Gallup. McCain jumped 12 points in two days? That's ridiculous.
Plus McCain's town halls have been in front of a selected audience, he won't have that advantage in the debates.....
Shout out to Nate. I get the Gallup and Rassmussen numbers but don't get the real picture till Nate posts. Thanks for this site!
Remember Nate's chart about what two convention bounces overlapping would look like? If McCain pulls slightly ahead for a couple of days, then this reverts to a small (2pt) Obama lead, that's exactly what we'll have seen. As Anon said: Nate, you're the man.
Given these results I see the race reverting to the small Obama lead that's been around through the summer, with small, insiginificant gotcha's and gaffes slightly swing the polls day to day, keeping everyone on the edge of their seats. My god, how can people make up their minds about an election this way?
Bounces are just that... they go up and they go down.
I never expected McCain not get a bounce. It is just a matter of how high and whether he has a new set point after.
We can go around and around on deciphering the actual daily results but there is a lot of noise and huge unknowns so the MoE's are through the roof.
I am actually shocked that Obama is maintaining his lead today, sitting in the high 40's and McCain is still stuck around 45. This looks like everything we've seen since early June.
To anyone wondering about PA, you're being a concern troll or just clueless. The Obama campaign is just trying to lock it down and use their regional messaging for OH and MI too. All of the state polls show that PA is solidly blue.
Locking it down in early Sept is a smart safe play. I seriously doubt that Obama would be IN today if their internals were telling them something bad about PA.
Coghill acts nosy
as lawyers converge on Juneau-
October surprise.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/157439
Nate, every time I think I might have something to contribute & slightly enhance you leave me with nothing to say but, er .. yeah, me too.
I do think think that as in Chuck Todd's "any day where the public focus is about race" is a good day for McCain, then to counter "any day where the public focus is on a hurricane" must be a good day for Obama. Landfall of (ok not quite hurricane) Hanna yesterday and now S. Florida contemplating a return of David in the name of Ike perhaps will refocus low info voters on why they don't want another 4 years.
Reviewing your revised algorithm Gallup series it truly is clear how much more volatile the Gallup daily's seem than Rasmussen's party ID weighted daily's. I honestly don't care that Scott Rasmussen wants to cater to a Rep. client base EVEN with ad's on his web site I find misleading or in bad taste, so long as his numbers are high quality. I have to presume his clients red, blue, green or plaid would quickly dump his paid services post one election cycle if his polls weren't the accurate & timely snapshot.
I wonder about Gallup though. As per Nate's comments this spring regarding the Gallup organization limping along as much on past reputation as truly state of the art methods. Peter Hart looks and reads (to me) almost as hidebound and dated as Stuart Rothenburg. Does anyone else think Rothenburg sort of resembles McCain in the "tails from Grandpa's better days" department?
(Sorry for the long post I'm currently going through state-level polling withdrawal)
Michael:
It may be the year of the white working class woman, but ultimately if they don't live in CO, OH, VA..they can vote all they want for PALIN/mccain and it will make no difference. This election will be decided once again on the margins in a few states. Turnout and voter registration will win the day in this one.
However I am looking into moving to the UK if McCain wins!
one demographic that seems to me to be also severely affected by the Palin pick is hispanics. If MCcain had a very slim chance before with Palin he has even less now. And don't a lot of western states have big hispanic populations? And isn't he under performing Bush with this demographic? One more thing to consider.
Man, Nate is such a left-wing shill; he cherry picks poll data to make the Messiah Obama look goo...
Wait, this polling data is good for McCain? And Nate presented it honestly and without deceit?
Hmmm...
*flips through talking points*
Man, this proves it! Barry Obama can't win! He's never broken 50%, and he never will, because past circumstances are logically guaranteed to be repeated indefinitely into the future. I bet you libtards wished you picked Hillary, huh? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
About Troopergate. Any thoughts on the Newsweek piece
http://www.newsweek.com/id/157439
or how the McCain campaign's attempt to stall the investigation/get French off of it will play out?
They were saying on CNN today that which ever candidate had the lead on the Wednesday following the last convention went on the win in 13 of the last 16 elections. Anyone know if that is really true or not. They said the only exceptions were Truman, Kennedy and Reagan......
Stephen:
If Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were as safe for the Dems as this site's model projects, we wouldn't see much campaigning happening in them.
90% chance of winning doesn't mean way ahead. It can simply mean that you're at 50%+1 and 90% likely to keep them. The projections, since they are based on demographic factors, assume a certain level of campaign activity to activate those demographics. The states at 99% are the ones where one campaign isn't going to lose unless they really screw up, even if they only put a token effort into them.
tim r:
13 out of 16? That sounds like a statistically really weak prediction to me.
McCain should have a few good days of polling. However, questions about Palin are rising even higher as a result of her unavailability. Events are happening too fast right now for any polling accuracy. Bring on the debates.
I agree. With 59 days to go , national polls don't mean a whole lot right now. It's all about the state polls.
For Obama, Kerry states + IA + NM = 264 EVs
McCain has to hold OH, FL, CO, NV, and VA (all serious toss-ups right now). Not impossible, but unlikely. Obama just has to win one of theses states. This is where organization, ground game, enthusiasm will come into play. Some may mock Obama's stadium acceptance venue, but I think it was a stroke of genius. With opening the venue to (~50 - 60k) ordinary citizens and having volunteerism the criteria for getting a ticket, this may have swung CO in the Obama column. Can't wait for the next CO poll.
Now if McCain really tightens the race in either PA or MI (within 1-2 pts), then America will be up VERY late on Nov. 4th.
And so goes the week
the high tide mark for the reds
Yet they still look weak
Yeah, they said 13 out of 16, and it was the head of the Gallup poll who said it. It really doesn't make much sense because some of those years they didn't even have any debates.....
otf wrote:
There are no bonus pts by winning evangelical wingnuts states by 5 extra points b/c they have a fellow religious fanatic like Palin
Good point.
We've been without state polling for so long that a lot of us have lost sight of the big picture.
The conservatrolls will undoubtedly soil themselves in ecstasy on Monday. It could get quite messy around here.
I see that Obama haters are still trying to assert that we wish that we'd picked Hillary, when they wish that we'd picked Hillary, so that Republicans could use the film they made way back when Hillary seemed a lock for the nomination. Projection never ceases to amuse me.
I know not a single Obama supporter who regrets Obama not choosing Hillary as a VP.
todd d---saw your comment in the other thread. yes the whole democracy promotion issue is one that is very much interest-based.
I'm a serious amateur photographer and have been on a photography forum for many years. There's a phenomenon there that I see happening here.
Someone will buy a new camera or lens and then decide to check it out by subjecting it to a battery of tests. This especially occurs if they suspect they got a lens that wasn't "sharp enough". They will start taking pictures of rules and cat's whiskers, then blowing up the image files in Photoshop to huge magnifications looking for problems.
Similarly, some will take two lenses and do this to compare them, greatly magnifying even small differences to differentiate them, things you'd never see in a real print.
The term used for this is somewhat crude: measurbating. I think the dearth of state polls is causing that to happen on this site with the national ones.
Much like how the DNC believes Obama enthusiasm will help them on the down-ballots, I'm curious how much the RNC believes Palin helps in that same area.
jakam: Agreed, but what film do you mean?
Palin represents an unprecedented attempt to appeal to the evangelical base (and, I would say, a solidification in the Neocon-Christian Right alliance).
I wouldn't say "unprecedented". The Republican GOTV effort from these groups in 2004 was unprecendented. I see the Palin pick as an attempt to repeat that.
Now Christian conservative enthusiasm, which had been very low, actually should match the enthusiasm college students and blacks feel about Obama. Don't be surprised if they manage top turnout from this demographic above the already sky-high 2004 numbers.
Enthusiasm among Christian conservatives is certainly way up from a few weeks ago, but I don't see this as being in any way comparable to the Obama "movement", especially among youth (18-29). You really have to see this on the ground to believe it. The numbers are phenomenal and, in my experience at least, complety unprecedented. I've been amused by the attempts of various trolls on this blog and others to portray the Obama campaign as somehow lacking in confidence- I can tell you that when I talk to Obama paid staffers, they're not worried, were *never* worried, and that's why. Since many affected demographics don't show up in LV models, the poll numbers tend, in my unscientific opinion, to run low for Obama.
For about one day I thought she was a ridiculous, stupid pick, but all that really happened here is that Karl Rove proved how much smarter he is than all of us.
Right, like in 2006? I dunno, I still see Palin as a hail mary pass. We shall see.
Query to all:
Haiku's -
Fun or waste of space?
@ Kevin 3:38pm
That's the thing with Obama's ground game; regardless of how well it's going, the poll numbers won't show it, because the pollsters will still be using last cycle's assumptions.
Sure, I'd love to run up the score and get a blowout too, but 270 (hell, 269 if you want be technical) is all we need. If MI and PA stay safe, while CO and NM stay just the tiniest bit blue, I think we'll have a lot to celebrate on Election Night.
jakam: Agreed, but what film do you mean?
I read a news story a while back, soon after it became clear that Obama, not Clinton, was going to get the nomination (but long before Hillary realized it), that Republicans had prepared a film about Hillary to use in the general election against her.
Jakam,
When you look at the VP choices..Obama picked who he wanted and chose to convince the other Dems to get on board. McCain caved to the rightwing and didn't pivk who he wanted. He showed that the rightwing relgious zealots own him, he has changed all his positions that supposedly made him a maverick to appease them. McCain is the whipping boy of the rightwingers.
I know not a single Obama supporter who regrets Obama not choosing Hillary as a VP.
I personally would like to have seen Hillary on the ticket. However, I do not 'regret' the selection of Biden. I like him as well and believe he's a wonderful 'Help You Govern' choice.
Will,
you're really weird. Would you quit it with those creepy 3 line poem things?
One interesting thought.
If Obama wins by a lot and exceeds poll numbers because of this ground game / youth effect, are we going to see the "Diebold" nonsense in reverse?
Hi all, I have been taking a day off to enjoy the vibe, but BO pulled me back here.
Just today he listed to you idiots and went after Palin on earmarks, saying, "I know the governor of Alaska has been, you know, saying she is change. And that is great. She is a skillful politician. But when you been taking all these earmarks when it is convenient and then suddenly you are the champion anti-earmark person. That is not change, come on."
Obama apparently isn't very good with women. He keeps walking into one haymaker after another. Haymaker you say? What haymaker? Well, it's simply this:
BO has requested over $740 million in earmarks, including that nice big fat payment to MO's hospital. Just before she got her raise to a cool $300k.
Change. Yup. I guess we're seeing who is really McSame now, aren't we?
And I don't care how unfair you think that argument is, it is undeniable that BO keeps walking into these things. McCain is boxing him around the ears like Oscar de La Hoya going after my grandma. BO is stumbling like he's punch drunk.
The meme that if he gets this flustered over Palin, then how will he do against Putin is already starting to bubble on the Interwebs. Another week of this stumbling and it will break into the electorate at large. I rate it a pretty good chance.
Oz
@Nate
I think this will be the first time I've ever criticised you. But anyway...
Trying to extract margins from tracking polls is really risky as there are multiple possibler results. And then trying to project them forward is riskier still as it ignores the natural variability of the polls (which is why they are averaged polls, after all).
That's the kind of thing us plebs should be doing, not someone as fact based as yourself.....you give it weight where there may be none.
Personally I'd say analyse them as 3 day averages, and forget trying to extract the dailies.
And I say this as someone who thinks that overall you may well be right!
@ Will: Keep 'em coming. Although I think you slipped in a 5-8-5 one by mistake earlier.
@ Charles M. Kozierok: Excellent post. I may just add "measurbation" to my personal lexicon :-P
When you look at the VP choices..Obama picked who he wanted and chose to convince the other Dems to get on board. McCain caved to the rightwing and didn't pivk who he wanted. He showed that the rightwing relgious zealots own him, he has changed all his positions that supposedly made him a maverick to appease them. McCain is the whipping boy of the rightwingers.
Yes, but why are telling me, as if I didn't already know that?
Indeed. It's really said to see a formerly decent man allow himself to be reduced to "Palin/Cuckold '08".
He should have told Rove to fuck off, picked Lieberman, and either won honestly or lost honestly.
emonokari;
I personally would like to have seen Hillary on the ticket. However, I do not 'regret' the selection of Biden. I like him as well and believe he's a wonderful 'Help You Govern' choice.
Gotta win before you can govern, my friend. No Chicago Machine in this election to walk BO across the line.
Oz.
Hey look, it's OzTroll.
Congrats on your candidate being a full 10 points behind Obama's bounce this time last week! Break out the champagne!
LOL.
OZ,
You are dumb hence you vote RepubliCon. Palin's first words out of her mouth were about earmarks and the bridge to nowehere. Both which are absolute lies. She supported the bridge and campaigned on it for Governor, she hired a lobby firm to get $27 million in earmarks for a town of 8,000. The hypocrisy is glaring but as a RepubliCom it goes right over your head. Lying is like breathing to RepubliCons.
I personally would like to have seen Hillary on the ticket. However, I do not 'regret' the selection of Biden. I like him as well and believe he's a wonderful 'Help You Govern' choice.
Well, then my statement remains true ;)
A significant % of Americans like divided government. When it becomes clear that the Dems are going to gain a lot of seats come November, enough people will vote McCain to keep a check on them.
I saw Nutter and Biden in PA this week and they were legitimately off their game .. almost dazed.
I think only CO and NV a threat to go D this election (assuming IA and NM are already in Obama's column) but with the evangelical turnout going to exceed 2004's levels, there isn't many other opportunities in the other states.
PA was a 2% Kerry victory in 2004 even with a historic Philly turnout. Obama is going to underperform significantly compared to Kerry in Western PA, so that is why Obama's campaign is spending mega-$$ in this state now.
Will - I like them!
Three numbers:
800
10,000
12,000
The first are the number of people Barack Obama spoke to today in Terra Haute, Indiana.
The second is the number of people McCain and Palin spoke to in Colorado Springs, CO today.
The last are the number of AMERICAN FLAGS found in the GARBAGE following the INVESCO Field Acceptance Speech.
The Flags have been retrieved by McCain campaign volunteers and were distributed at the rally in Colorado Springs.
"Flag Gate" has been reported on by CNN and Fox News. It is likely to be a big negative story the Obama. The Democratic Candidate for President seems incapable of dealing with our Flag in an appropriate manner.
The crowd numbers speak for themselves.
NJ_Moderate posts regularly on the extreme right-wing blog Free Republic. He's no moderate, he's a wingnut. Treat him as such.
Oz...opposing earmarks hasn't been a centerpiece of Obama's campaign.
I think there is exactly one thing we can take from the current polling data: This election will be extremely close.
As a strong McCain backer, my greatest fear was that Obama would get an enormous convention bounce because of his excellent oratorical skills. Also, the CV going into the conventions was that the side that is under-performing stands to gain much more of a bounce than the side that is over-performing. The thinking was that there was more "low-hanging fruit" for Obama (Clinton supporters and those who were reluctant to support Obama simply because they hadn't seen much of him). I feared he'd come out of the conventions with an 8-10 point lead and never look back. That has not happened.
It now appears that the net effect of the conventions is a wash, so the election is likely to be won or lost, at the margins, during the debates. Barring a major gaffe or serious October Surprise, it looks like a 2-3 point race in either direction.
Pete Kent,
You really are dumb hence you vote RepubliCon. A fabricated story that that appeals to the dim as yourself.
jakam;
You dunderheads are actually trying to argue that Biden was made from strength and Palin was a choice made from weakness?
Are you all smoking dope? It's like your a bunch of dateless losers calling all the women that reject you lesbians. Sometimes the truth is ugly and you just need to face it rather than try to rationalize it away.
The facts: Biden was a weak choice. Hillary! was the strong choice that lead to victory, but BO can't handle women. And he certainly can't handle Hillary!. BO failed on his choice and Biden will be the gaffe gift that keeps on giving right up to Nov 4.
Palin was an aggressive pick designed to both rally the base and through BO off his game, at great electoral risk. That is strength, by friends. And payoff.
You loser is gonna lose.
Oz.
so the election is likely to be won or lost, at the margins, during the debates
The dabates will only matter in a peripheral way. This election will be decided by turnout (or lack thereof) among 18-34 year old voters.
Haikus are fun.
I'd like to bring up for consideration an idea in the absence of state polls. I'd like to have us figure out where the swing areas are in the swing states. I'm a Pennsylvanian by birth, and I know through and through that Philly and Pittsburgh are cancelled out by the T or center of the state. But the coal region of the northeast and the Lehigh Valley are really the swing areas. It was demonstrated not only in Kerry/Bush, but also in Casey/Santorum, Rendell's two governor races, and Santorum/Klink.
Consider the twelve swing states as determined by 270towin.com - NH, PA, VA, NC, FL, OH, MI, MO, MN, CO, NM, and NV. Where are these swing areas/regions in these states? Please use statistical/historical evidence only to back up this argument. Try to find other statistical evidence for understanding the current race, but feel free to use anecdotal evidence to determine how the Obama/McCain race is playing in these critical areas.
If we focus on stats and trends in the Scrantons and Macomb Countys and northern suburbs of Denver, perhaps we can start drawing some reasonable conclusions. Then we can see if, for example, Obama flubs a debate and how it plays in those areas.
Many thanks.
NJ moderate,
Who do you think you are fooling. Your crap was revealed weeks ago...wingnut in disguise. Why is that onlt RepubliCon trolls have to pretend to be indepemdents, moderates or dems. It goes to the inherent dishonesty that is hallamrk of being a RepubliCon
"dailydem said...
I'm still worried about the debates, especially the decision to have the town hall forum for the final one. Why would we ever have agreed to that? It plays to McCain's strength."
You must have seen BO's Indiana campaign stops today. He is awkward and at a loss of words without the teleprompter.
One number:
Zero.
That's the number of press conferences that Saint Sarah has had the balls to give since she was picked by McCain.
We're supposed to believe she will take on Washington when she can't even take questions from the press.
McCain/Coward '08.
OzTroll:
If Biden is so weak, why is he out there attacking McCain as a VP candidate should, while yours is hiding in a cave in Alaska being taught what her job involves?
Folks,
Palin did not go back to AK. She is campaigning with McCain in CO and NM today. Schedule changed an hour ago saying she will continue to campaign with McCain until some time next week.
OTF, not completely true. Not sure how long you've been here, but if it's been a while then you probably remember Virginia Moderate, who came the same time as Virginia Conservative. VAModerate was one of the most liberal posters here judging by their posts. I think you should check some history before making broad statements like yours.
nj_mod:
A significant % of Americans like divided government. When it becomes clear that the Dems are going to gain a lot of seats come November, enough people will vote McCain to keep a check on them.
Every election we hear from pundits that Americans like divided government as an explanation for why we end up with different parties in charge of different branches, but I've never seen any evidence that it actually affects voting patterns, much less as strongly as you suggest.
I find it extraordinarily unlikely that there are a significant number of voters who are plugged in enough to know which party is likely to control Congress, but care so little about the positions of the presidential candidates that "putting the brakes on Congress" would be an overriding concern.
I have met people who say they are in favor of divided government, but for some reason they only talk about it when the party they don't like controls Congress...
Oz --
Obama has never presented himself as an anti-earmark activist. He wasn't contending that Palin was less pork-laden than himself -- he was contending that Palin was more pork-laden than she'd suggested. Fairly straightforward.
Also, really do your best to master the "your"/"you're" thing. This site could use a few more credible conservative voices, even if they're contrarian and straw-grasping -- you limit your potential to be one with grammatical gaffes with that.
She's still a coward, and McCain's campaign manager says we have no right to ask her questions.
Smitty,
The orignal article said she is going to the bat cave tuesday. No plans for interviews still. The clock is ticking.
I'm sure Obama and all the libs will "take it to the streets" when the election is "stolen" by Diebold.
She's still a coward, and McCain's campaign manager says we have no right to ask her questions.
Not surprising, since Tucker Bounds couldn't explain to Campbell Brown how Palin is qualified for the job without mentioning Obama.
So many words, so little new data.
It's good that Nate parses the trackers, and even "predicts" what tomorrow's numbers are going to look like.
But we need polling that is truly post-convention to see how the balance comes out.
And more importantly, we need to see how particulr state races that are tipping points or critical to the EV count are playing out.
She is on the trail in CO and NM swingig them back to the right. She'll head back to Alaska to see her oldest son, Track, off to Iraq next week. Then she is back on the trail. Lets see if Oprah and Ellen have the guts to invite her on...
Charles K--to support your point about not facing the press, here is this:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/in-hiding-for-t.html
James,
where did I bring up VA moderate..please reread. NJ moderate is a Repub troll in disguise.
Today's so-celled "swing voter":
Obama is charismatic, intelligent, a great speaker... but Higher Taxes, a Socialized Health Care plan, and and my questions on him leading our military is my big concern.
MORON ALERT!!!
Obama clearly stated in his acceptance speech he's giving a tax cut to 95% of Americans. You must be in the top 5%, yeah?
He isn't for Socialized Health Care, and has taken crticism from the left for it. That's a fact.
Your concerns, or should I say ignorance, regarding Obama leading America's military isn't reflected in the people who actually do the fighting. You know, the troops.
U.S. Servicemen, by a ratio of 6-1, have donated more money to Obama than McCain. Apparently, the troops trust Obama more than you. And unlike cowards like you, they actually put their money where their mouth is.
I know, facts be damned. Vote for the guy who was against Democrat Jim Webb's G.I. Bill, because, and I quote, "it was too generous."
BTW, Obama strongly supported Webb's G.I. Bill. Did you know that? Of course you didn't. Go back to sleep.
I'm sure Obama and all the libs will "take it to the streets" when the election is "stolen" by Diebold.
Not even a consideration as far as I'm concerned.
Obama will keep all the states Kerry won in 2004, and Obama, like Kerry, will win in Ohio as well. The difference is that, since the SoS is a Democrat this time, he'll actually get credit (and electoral votes) for winning Ohio.
Iowa, New Mexico, and whatever else he wins will just pad the victory.
cskendrick said...
Well, both parties are rallying their respectives bases.
We were thinking the same thing at almost the same time here!
But, McCain CAN'T get 95% of Republicans. Bush only got 94% and there's an irreducible 6-7% who will vote for Obama no matter what.
Obama can't get 90% of Democrats. Kerry got 89% and some are racists who will never vote for Obama no matter what he does. That means McCain has an irreducible 10-11% of Democrats.
What's different from 2004 is that Democratic party ID probably dooms McCain if Obama rallies his party over the next 90 days.
Ex: If Obama gets 89% of Democrats like Kerry did, and McCain gets 94% of Republicans like Bush did, then these are the numbers:
Obama: 38.9% Democrats (Rasmussen) X 89% party loyalty = 34.62%.
McCain: 33.2% Republicans (Rasmussen) X 94% party loyalty = 31.21%
Obama leads by 3.41%.
Further, even if McCain won independents by 4% (unlikely if Bush couldn't do it in 2004), then he STILL loses the popular vote:
27.9% Independents X 52% McCain = 14.51%
27.9% Independents X 48% Obama = 13.39%
McCain advantage among Independents = 1.12% He would still lose the popular vote.
Thus, McCain would have to win Independents by at least around 5% to lead in the popular vote. That wouldn't guarantee victory of course (see President Gore), but it would give him a chance.
It's actually slightly worse than that, because Independent turnout was around 55% in 2004, while Democratic and Republican turnout was round 62%.
Republican and Democratic turnout is expected to rise also, while Independent turnout will lag behind (Independents are by nature less committed to voting). That makes McCain's problem bigger too.
ha ha ha. So Palin is not giving interviews because Oprah won't invite her? What?
Larry King not a good interviewer? Katie Couric no available?
Come on she needs to face a real interview not the tv version of People magazine. she is running for VP not mother of the US.
ozJohnny wrote:
The facts: Biden was a weak choice. Hillary! was the strong choice that lead to victory, but BO can't handle women. And he certainly can't handle Hillary!. BO failed on his choice and Biden will be the gaffe gift that keeps on giving right up to Nov 4.
Okay, I'm ignoring from now on because I'm afraid that if I took on the singularity that you consider to be a "mind", I might become impolite.
OTF, this is the comment I was responding to, "Why is that onlt RepubliCon trolls have to pretend to be indepemdents, moderates or dems." That is why I brought up VAModerate. I don't believe that he was a "RepubliCon troll".
I would just like to thank you guys for making me completely addicted to polling data. The longer the day goes on without a polling fix, the worse my condition gets! I'm like a crack addict now!
I sure hope someone is polling Florida this weekend.
oft;
Palin's first words out of her mouth were about earmarks and the bridge to nowehere. Both which are absolute lies. She supported the bridge and campaigned on it for Governor, she hired a lobby firm to get $27 million in earmarks for a town of 8,000.
You forget that this is an election, my friend, and you and your crazy friends have given Palin so much grace with your feral behavior last week that this argument, regardless of it's validity (which obviously it isn't, but your spin is really really good), will fall on deaf ears. Thanks for that.
jakam;
I agree, BO never made earmarks a pillar of his election (and for good reason as he's not clean there), but by challenging Palin on earmarks he now opens himself up for comparison and $27 million for Wasilla pales in comparison to $740 million and a big fat pay rise for your wife.
BO is taking wild swings and leaving himself open to getting punched in the nose. He needs the bell to ring so he can collect his thoughts, but it's the last round now and there is no more stopping until election day.
Oz.
Obama can't get 90% of Democrats. Kerry got 89% and some are racists who will never vote for Obama no matter what he does. That means McCain has an irreducible 10-11% of Democrats.
I'm not entirely sure about that. About 8% of African Americans are Republicans, which amounts to about a half million voters. A good number of them (half by one measure) are voting Obama merely because of the historical nature...they want to be able to tell their children they voted for him.
You guys are so dumb. Why? Because you keep making personal and stupid attacks that can easily be batted away. Palin's schedule for today:
Saturday, September 6, 2008
Colorado and New Mexico
10:00am Media Interview
10:30am Satellite into AARP Convention
11:30am Media Interview
12:30pm MT “The Road to Victory Rally”
Colorado Springs, CO
1:45pm MT Depart Colorado
2:50pm MT Arrive NM
3:30pm MT Media Interviews
7:00pm MT “The Road to Victory Rally”
Albuquerque Convention Center
Three hours with the media. And now you look stupid again. While BO keeps wild swinging.
It's getting pitiful, really.
Oz.
Cugel: Careful there, if it takes Obama 90 days to rally his base, he will be 30 days too late. (Friendly comment.)
In several forums I've seen former Clinton supporters rallying to Obama; I don't know of any holdouts except maybe my old Pa, but even he's coming around since the nomination of Palin.
We'll be geting a pretty good read on the situation in a week or two.
Cugel,
Article on Politico today. There are 2 million more Dems registered 2006 to now. There are 344,000 less repub. The Nationa voter Id is 42mil Dem to 31 Mil Repub.
Just a few random thoughts --
1. Palin will give a pc within a week or else face serious derision, well deserved.
Who says we know the real McCain?
There are three of them
2. McFlop > morphing into McSame > vigorously seeking to become McReformer (AKA Maverick). See John Stewart's videos.
3. The latest Palin rap is that she has out Imus-ed Imus and if the story of her Sambo remark sticks she may be toast before you can say Troopergate.
4. We have not seen what Obama has in store for the campaign yet, but I am betting on serious power being generated by the stars of the Party and various Independents and Republicans. And on stepped up responses to the Rovian operatives of the McCain effort.
If McCain sustains a Gallup margin over Obama for three days running, I will worry. If not I will relax.
Democrats have a party ID advantage in elections like 1980, 1984, and 1988 as well.
To Oz: How SWEET. You learned how to cut & paste and just to TROLL. I feel so special.
A "media interview" isn't for public consumption; it's not the same as a press conference.
The Flag story is confirmed in the Obama campaign's official response: they say the Flags were stolen.
Ha! Stolen out of the garbage!
When I first heard of this event, the rally in Denver, I commented on it and another poster noted that it would be scandalous what would be found in the trash and under the seats at INVESCO FIELD.
That poster was prescient. They found 12,000 American Flags in the Garbage and now the Obama campaign is complaining they were stolen. Stolen from the garbage.
Will Walker, speaking for myself only, I thoroughly enjoy your haiku's.
Your haiku's represent a refreshing little "nip" amidst sometimes rancorous babble.
Will Walker
I enjoy the haiku, and the calming affect they have on my effect.
Being a political junkie is not the best thing for my blood pressure. But a bad president would be so much worse!
Flag Gate...
http://www.bloggernews.net/117648
Going to spread this like wildfire
This is one of MSNBC's most recent "text question" polls:
What do you feel McCain's speech accomplished the most?
A. Inspired the nation
B. Explained what motivated his presidential run
C. Outlined his policy priorities if elected
D. Positioned himself as the tough maverick for change
Talk about stacking the deck. How does one choose among so many positive responses? How???
"Liberal Media" my arse.
Not sure the hockey-mom population is confined to Michigan. I know the working-mom population isn't.
My guess would be that any place where the state university has a varsity hockey program might be ripe campaign territory for a barracuda on a snowmobile.
"Lets see if Oprah and Ellen have the guts to invite her on..."
LOL. Talk about Orwellian reversal maneouvers.
Hello? She's running for VICE PRESIDENT, not peddling a recipe book. Why isn't she on the Sunday talk shows tomorrow?
Could it be because she's CLUELESS?
Pete kent,
Once again RepubliCons are criminals..stealing things. Nothing new considering the Bush admin and McSame is falling the example.
An interesting article in today' Wall Street Journal about the incompetence of a former mayor of a small town in Alaska.
The Daily Show: 2008 McCain = 2000 Bush: A case of amnesia.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/Media/Download/32581/1/TDS-McCain-Speech-090508.wmv
Yeah - throwing out the flags. Dumb! And a lowly minimum wage cleaner at the stadium collected them and gave them to the McCain campaign.
Must have been a dummy that didn't know what was good for him.
Oz.
Flags neatly rolled up and placed in plastic bags doesn't mean they were thrown in the garbage.
oft;
Once again RepubliCons are criminals..stealing things.
The were FLAGS oft. You may have been better off phrasing that sentence as RESCUING things.
Oz.
Of course there are no "bonus points" in winning South Carolina or wherever by more points by adding Palin to the ticket. But evangelicals aren't only in safe red states. Virginia has a lot of them, and Colorado has quite a few as well. Those are probably the two most important states this election.
And, again, I'm not a "concern troll" here, just pointing out that currently Nate's model shows that Pennsylvania is 90% likely to go for Obama, while Georgia is only 86% likely to go for McCain. Obama has pulled resources out of Georgia but devoted resources to Pennsylvania. I'd venture to guess that both campaigns would currently accept that Pennsylvania is more likely to flip than Georgia in this election, although both, clearly, are probable holds. There's just a higher degree of certainty in the case of Georgia.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/us/politics/07strategy.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1220719574-u0KVMJd2qZZZog2S8j/fmA
All I'm saying: the current numbers here greatly underestimate the probability of a McCain victory.
Oz, Oz, Oz.
Obama has requested $740 million in earmarks for a state with a population of 13 million people. Let's be as strictly anti-Obama as possible and say that he and Durbin split the pork-hounding -- let's say that Obama got that money for half of the residents. He's been a Senator for three-and-a-half years -- for your sake, let's round it down to three. Let's even round up, try to help you a little more. Obama procured about $40 per constituent per year.
Palin was Wasilla mayor for six years -- she brought in $27 million for a town of 9,000 people (actually less during that time frame, but we're rooting for you here). Palin procured about $500 per constituent per year.
Low-info voters don't love math, but there's no spinning this. There is no angle here for McCain. Palin's earmarking history is ABSURD compared to Obama's.
You're a better troller than this.
this will no doubt be a very close election, at least in the popular vote. but the macro factors still favor the democrats. obama is getting better on the stump while mccain is looking increasingly frail, and frankly weird, and they're going to get limited mileage out of palin. she'll energize a base that was previously going to cast a tepid vote for mccain anyway, will bring in a few suburban swing voters but will turn just as many off. more of her details will trickle out, which the republican base will dismiss as the rantings of the liberal msm, as will some swing voters. but enough swing voters will start asking questions of her record and mccain's judgment in picking her that her effect on the electoral math will be a wash. they're unwilling to sit her down for real interviews, so she'll be limited to giving speeches to friendly audiences who were going to vote republican no matter what. even if she gives mccain 95% of the republican vote, as opposed to the 90% he had before the pick, it won't matter because their pie is shrinking while ours is getting bigger. i think she'll do great debating biden. expectations will be low, and she'll do a good job of sticking to her talking points and looking hot. but after that she'll fade back into her roll as reagan's second coming for the jesus freaks, and the rest of the country will still be looking at mccain and obama. their debates will be fun to watch. obama will outshine him on substance, and mccain will look old as dirt, unable to offer any new ideas, and will just be plain depressing.
they may still win, but right now i like our odds.
clearly we've got two different "michael"s posting here...
740... 740... 740...
What do you think the electorate will remember? "740" or your long spin?
BO should have stayed away from this. He can't win the impression game.
Oz.
Since when was worshipping a flag more important than adhering to the Constitution?
OTF
I live in one of those states. She's here. They are saying "Palin was scheduled to go out on her own to campaign. That has changed and she will continue to campaign with Senator McCain until some time next week. No reason was given for the schedule change."
I did hear that her trip back to AK was being called "campaigning on her own."
lat: Thank you. I'm speechless.
Okay, I'm not really. But I'm still amazed.
The scales better fall from the eyes of the American people pretty damned fast. This is either the death throes of Rove-style contempt politicking, or the death throes of this nation.
Virginia, usually a red state, is changing fast. Governor and both senators will be Democrats. In the primaries (still contested at the time), Obama split the vote with Clinton, but Obama alone got more votes than ALL or the Republicans put together.
On Nate's map, Virginia is looking a little bluish. That corresponds to my unscientific observations.
Juris,
Nobody is going to believe an extreme leftist rag like the WSJ. Obviously they are just trying to crown Obama the victor, just like the rest of the liberal media.
Leave Sarah Palin alone!
You're so partisan, Nate,saying that McCain is doing well! ;p
Indeed. Where have all the right wing hypocritical assholes complaining about his bias run off to?
Flags neatly rolled up and placed in plastic bags doesn't mean they were thrown in the garbage.
Yeah Jakem, I said the same thing in the last thread. Who would roll them up like that to throw them away?
But then dishonesty is the hallmark of the current Republican party, why would petty theft not be one of their traits too?
emonokari;
Since when was worshipping a flag more important than adhering to the Constitution?
Outside of troofers and the nutroots, no one believes that the Constitution was actually violated. Everyone can clearly see those flags stuffed in garbage bags, however, and thanks to Drudge they have.
Oz.
The were FLAGS oft. You may have been better off phrasing that sentence as RESCUING things.
Even more precious to Republicans than fetuses.
The McCain-Palin ticket is the Bush-Cheney ticket in reverse.
John McCain is Dick Cheney and Sarah Palin is George W. Bush in a Short Skirt and Big Boobs.
Oz: I hear Eagle Forum is having a lifetime membership special today only. Don't you need to take advantage of that one?
The Republicans care more about flags than they do about the safety of the nation, since they are happy to elect a VP who could be president in 4 months and doesn't know her ass from her elbow on any important national topic.
You guys are funny: touting your favorite guy and his criminals while dissin' the other guy and his ner'do wells. If you want to listen to some criminals that really control things, look at the stock market. If after the Frannie bailout, the market resumes the crash from last week, Obammy's in. If not, McLame has a tiny chance, but not much of one. I'm betting down.
Flipping around the channels this morning, I came upon this - a smiling republican hack saying "Governor Palin is a total game changer! She hunts, she fishes..." So is the hunting, fishing Palin really a game changer? I guess we'll have to see, because if she turns out not to be - this is still the game:
I think we can all agree the key battleground states are shaping up to be: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio. There might be other close contests, but these are going to be where all the money is poured and the main battle is fought. So what do these states have in common? Well for one thing - Democratic governors, including four elected by margins exceeding 10 points in 2006. Another thing in common: they all went blue in some sort of significant way in 2006 (Pennsylvania flipped one senate seat and 4 house seats to democrats, Virginia flipped a senate seat, Colorado flipped the governors chair and one house seat, Ohio flipped a senate seat, one house seat & the governor's chair, and Michigan simply maintained it's blue status quo. In the following two years, there hasn't been much to portend any momentum back towards the red in any of these states (check polling on the current Colorado senate race, Michigan senate race, Virginia Senate race, etc.). So it seems the game has not changed. The game is the same. Barack Obama (personally) must be viewed as an unacceptable choice in order for McCain to win. I (like Krauthammer) think that the selection of Governor Palin reduces McCain's ability to make Obama an unacceptable choice, but that remains to be seen.
Forgot to respond to this idiotic comment yesterday.
stop_the_stutter said...
Mason,
Yes, he does. Going on O'Reilly is a "gamble move" for him.
Well, if it was a gamble, it seems to have paid off.
Bill O'Reilly: "This guy is tough, I looked this guy in the eyes and he is tough."
BTW, it wasn't a gamble. Obama is doing the rounds - Sunday he's doing an interview with Stephanopoulos, Biden's on MTP, and Monday Obama's on Olbermann.
Everyone can clearly see those flags stuffed in garbage bags
Because it's a law of nature that garbage bags can't be used to hold anything other than garbage.
OZ,
You prove why you are a RepubliCon you don't understand or beleive in math or science.
27Million for a town of 8,000
Also, AK gets the most earmark dollars per capita in the nation. She repats her lies about the bridge to nowhere and this. Still no answers to the questions on he record.
740 million for a state of 13 million.
YOu take pride in being ignorant, a trait of all RepubliCons.
I think the prediction of where Obama will end up would be particularly true if this proposed ad were run sometime this next week.
Monday Obama's on Olbermann.
The O'Reilly appearance (and O'Reilly's assessment) sure to be a topic of discussion.
This is really so simple it's sad to see so many trying to dance around it:
With the very slight possible exception of NH, Obama has the Kerry states wrapped up. 252. The idle talk of making Michigan or Pennsylvania a swing state doesn't match up with the polling there.
New Mexico and Iowa are also polling very consistently as solid Obama. 264.
Colorado, Ohio, Virginia and Nevada are all polling close to coinflips. Odds of McCain winning all four are about the same as him winning four straight coin fliips, let alone the several other close states.
If the election stays its course, with relatively close polling and a clear partisan divide, Obama almost certainly wins.
I hate the cliche, but McCain needs a "game-changer," something that completely shifts the way the entire voting public sees the race.
jqb;
Even more precious to Republicans than fetuses.
Oh how I hope BO or one of his surrogates use that line. Slow Joe is dumb enough. We can hope.
Oz.
Well, well, isn't this interesting.
Sarah Palin: the self-swiftboating candidate.
I gotta rewind on a comment here:
NJ_Moderate speculated...
A significant % of Americans like divided government. When it becomes clear that the Dems are going to gain a lot of seats come November, enough people will vote McCain to keep a check on them.
This is the second time I've seen a GOOPer post something like this. Besides the fact it reeks of a desperation mindset, it's just outright illogical bullshit.
The country does not vote as a large block, this isn't a popularity contest. The election is based on electoral votes (it seems a lot of you don't realize this). So, suddenly all these people in all these swings states with so many different demographics and backgrounds are all suddenly decide on this one issue of divided government and vote for McCain?
Good fucking luck with that, guys. Hopefully you'll have a better candidate and strategy in four years so you can actually challenge for the presidency.
Troopergate: A devastating exposé
ABC investigative journalist Brian Ross digs into the Troopergate story and comes to one obvious conclusion: Palin clearly lied about her involvement.
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/05/troopergate-a-devastating-expose/
Oh how I hope BO or one of his surrogates use that line.
Yes, yes, Oz, we already know that you're dumb as dirt. But it's my "line", here on this little blog, it won't be used by the Obama campaign, you loon -- but it's the truth.
The wannabe Flag scandal will have as much traction as the Walter Reed fiasco: only people solidly in one camp will even care.
"Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio."
I don't agree with that list of swing states at all. I don't see why either Michigan or Pennsylvania are swing states at this point, given the polling.
Drop them, and add Nevada and Florida.
Cugel is wrong. His model is a good one, but his interpretation of the data is off.
He posits that McCain could not get the 4% margin among independents he needs in order to trump Obama’s advantage among Democrats. His rationale was that McCain could not out perform Bush among this key demographic.
I disagree.
I think McCain is perfectly positioned to appeal to unaffiliated voters, many of whom are conservative, but also distrustful of parties. McCain is positioning himself as independent of his party. He can do this b/c he has always been an outsider and in truth McCain represents change. We have never had his brand of republicanism in the White House. I think it is much more sui generis and now with Palin on the ticket, informed by the sensibilities of the majority of the middle classes.
Obama too offers change. Liberal Democrat governance. Something that has not been tested since Jimmy Carter.
It is a stark choice we are being offered.
I think McCain owns his base, but Obama has a weak flank among his women. This gives McCain advantages with Democrats and with independents and it is the reason he will win the election.
Palin has given millions of voters the reason they needed and wanted so they would not have to vote for Obama who has done little and nothing to appeal to the white working and modest middle income voter. He made inroads into the white upper class for reasons that we need not go into in detail, but given the shaky ground of that appeal, McCain can now lay claim to these voters. The men and women of suburban Philadelphia, the professional class.
Many among the professional class would like to believe they have liberal natures. They have had guilt driven in them b/c they are rich and successful. Mrs. Obama made it clear that people of this sort are unworthy. Barack Obama could have chosen to be one of them, but instead took his Columbia College education and became a Community Organizer. How noble. Michelle is a corporate attorney who made over $300,000 last year. A bit of her personal biography that was not addressed in her speech at the DNC. That is because the Obama’s do not see the natural success and aspirations of the great majority of Americans worthy of comment or compliment. To me that is telling.
You can see that the men and women of suburban Philadelphia, people who make over $250,000 a year, along with those who live off their existence, will be forgiven a reluctance to vote for Obama this year.
Times are tough.
For this reason, along with Obama’s non-appeal in ex-urban PA, contrasted with Palin’s rock star status, and you can see the pathway to victory for McCain in PA.
PA is just an example this appeal will be felt all over the country. I think the one weak spot may be the South where the “family values” argument against Palin’s candidacy may hold some sway, but I also think the symbolic nature of her candidacy will also call out a great deal of latent FEMININE PRIDE and she will bring more women to the ticket than say Bush did. The ticket performs well with men.
I imagine if McCain could reclaim his share of the Hispanic vote? He would win in a landslide.
Biden on the RNC: “What do you talk about when you can’t explain the last eight years of failure?”
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/05/biden-on-the-rnc-what-do-you-talk-about-when-you-cant-explain-the-last-eight-years-of-failure/
If you guys say Florida is a swing state (BO 3 points behind) then so is Michigan (McCain 3 points behind).
The contrast here is so funny.
The GOP says Palin is more qualified than Obama because of "executive experience"....
... the same week Obama walks into O'Reilly's lion's den, while Palin draws a yellow streak a mile wide down her back with respect to the press.
I hope the press doesn't fall for the intimidation tactics. They need to make her refusal to talk a story.
Porridgegun,
Her story on that has "evolved". It has changed slightly over time. The investigator is going to subpeona people this week since the Mccain campaign is trying to stall and got people in her offcie to cancel their depositions this week. He's also moved the report deadline to Oct 10th.
I hope the press doesn't fall for the intimidation tactics. They need to make her refusal to talk a story.
Well, here is where so many on "our side" fall down. Never ever count of "the press" -- they work for the other side.
"count of" -> "count on"
We need a Florida poll post-Palin. I'll be surprised if Obama is still behind.
"The wannabe Flag scandal will have as much traction as the Walter Reed fiasco: only people solidly in one camp will even care."
Probably. The GOP is much more willing to exploit bullshit like this though.
Most lefties view the Walter Reed thing as an amusing mistake. A few will say it would be distasteful to use Walter Reed Medical as a backdrop.
The GOP, on the other hand, will probably use this flag story and start screaming "OBAMA HATES AMERICA!!! FLAG PIN!!! WRIGHT!!!" Etc.
The GOP had a great convention. They played it perfect right down to de-branding McCain. McCain will be up on Monday by 1 or 2 IMO, maybe more. BTW when will they let Palin answer press questions? Its been 10 days and she still refuses to take questions.
Debate 1 is what will really matter. McCain wins it and Obama is suddenly a long shot. McCain blows it we go to the next debate even.
All is noise till then.
bryen193 wrote:
So is the hunting, fishing Palin really a game changer? I guess we'll have to see, because if she turns out not to be - this is still the game
It is a well-known fact that most the crises this nation faces revolve around hunting and fishing.
With uncertainty over Georgia and Russia growing, the ability to shoot a wolf from a plane becomes critical. And when Israel attacks Iran, the nation will cry out for an angler in our moment of doubt.
Who will catch this nation's precious eel pout? Certainly not Barack Obama. Will moose be allowed to wander freely and threaten our very way of life? Not if Sarah Palin has anything to say about it, they won't!
And no, I am not serious.
The flags were found in dumpsters at Invesco feild. This has been reported on CNN and Fox.
The Obama campaign has not denied that the Flags were those used at Obama's acceptance speech. They only claim they were stolen. Stolen from the garbage.
Have you posted an explanation yet of your magical method of solving N equations in N+2 unknowns?
Two numbers for y'all
5,130,632; 0
The first one is the population of Arizona according to 50states.com. The second is the number of dollars in earmarks John McCain has brought home in his 15 years in the Senate. Enough said.
Jon Stewart recaps the final night of the scum's convention:
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/09/the-best-daily-show-episode-ev.html
Emon Okari, I dont think it is matter of worshipping the Flag, but treating it with respect.
"BTW when will they let Palin answer press questions?"
Not until they finish the Vulcan mind meld with Lieberman.
'Ready to hide on day one!' lol
"If you guys say Florida is a swing state (BO 3 points behind) then so is Michigan (McCain 3 points behind)."
Sources? I think you just made those numbers up.
I don't see any recent poll that has Michigan as Obama +3. This month's polls say +9, +7 and +2, for an average of +5.3. Nate's weighted average is +4.5
The most recent Florida polls are McCain +2, +4, +7 and -1, which is an average of +3. The weighted average is +2.8.
While I suspect you are right to take Florida off of swing category for the moment, equating it with Obama's lead in Michigan is dishonest.
Nate,
You're seeing such ridiculous jumps because you are not smoothing the time trends (I'm pretty sure.) See my comment this morning for what I believe is a more realistic time trend for Rasmussen.
If someone has the Gallup numbers in table form, I'll gladly run them.
Carl Rove is still the best.
I thought the worst threat to Obama was from Romney, who could make it rough in Michigan.
Palin is taking away the gains in the West also.
"The flags were found in dumpsters at Invesco feild."
Why did you put them there, Pete? That wasn't very nice.
I have great respect for McCain's anti-earmarking history.
Which is why I wonder why he sold himself out to select a VP who is so into them.
Will... I really like the haikus. I also note that you are becoming less obsessive about the "season" rule in your haikus. I consider this an evidence of growth ;-)
Charles... I've pretty much begun to hang on your every word... and "measurbation" is an especially good one!
You need to a link that says they were "in a dumpster"...that wasn't in the news story I saw.
Jqb,
Makes joke of equating Flags with Fetues.
He denigrates them both.
Breathtaking.
bryen193 (4:34pm). Interesting observations. I'd throw NV in there as well. If it's close, he might need it to get a 269-269 result.
Post a Comment