It's pretty quiet on the polling front today. The only numbers out are the national trackers: Barack Obama now has a 6-point lead in Gallup, down from 8 points yesterday, and a 5-point lead in Rasmussen, a tick down from 6. These polls will not really reflect any happenings at the GOP convention, since Monday's events were essentially canceled, and since Tuesday's occurred to late in the evening to be reflected in most interviewing.
Even though Obama moved down slightly in the trackers, our projection model still has him gaining ground, as it still has some ground to make up before it "catches up" to the current numbers. This is by design: we don't want the model to overreact to a few days' worth of polling (until the very end of the election, at least, when we will tune it to be very aggressive).
Of course, the strong likelihood is that the next move will be in McCain's direction once the Republicans get a convention bounce of their own (if it isn't, the Republicans are in a lot of trouble). But all else being equal, I wouldn't expect the Republicans to get quite as large a bounce as the Democrats did. The reason is that Obama had a lot of low-hanging fruit to pick up among white Democrats, among whom he moved up from 74 percent support to 82 percent support following his convention (per Gallup). I don't see Obama giving most of those points back. McCain, on the other hand, already had the support of something like 90 percent of Republicans, this number actually having increased a bit following the selection of Sarah Palin. I think McCain is likely to gain some ground among independents, however, and that the tracking polls will most likely wind up somewhere in the range of McCain +1 to Obama +3 over the weekend.
9.03.2008
Today's Polls, 9/3
@ 3:00 PM
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Who are these fickle moron voters? What more is there to know? It's hard to believe that a political gimmick like a nut job from Alaska has to make a difference in who to vote for.
I thought I saw a North Dakota poll somewhere
For some light relief (but you have to have seen a lot of Sorkin) here's how the pick really happened
http://peterwelcheastern.blogspot.com/2008/09/how-palin-got-nod.html
TBoggs website has decided the best name for the expected child is:
Wrapya Johnston.
The North Dakota poll was commissioned by a Dem-leaning union and violates our ban on internal and partisan polls.
"Barack Obama now has a 6-point lead in Gallup, down from 8 points yesterday, and a 5-point lead in Rasmussen, a tick down from 5."
A tick down from 6, you mean?
He hasn't run away with it yet.
"It's hard to believe that a political gimmick like a nut job from Alaska has to make a difference in who to vote for."
Sadly, it is all too easy to believe.
However, it is even easier to believe that a political gimmick like a nutjob from Alaska would make the difference in *whether to vote at all*.
Thanks Nate.
what I think is interesting is that as much as we have been hearing about the love-fest for Palin on the evenagelical base and talk radio we are now seeing that this is not uniform and the story is more more complicated with women, the target for McCain. I give you Republican start Dr. Laura
totally mad.
http://www.drlaurablog.com/2008/09/02/sarah-palin-and-motherhood/
"a Dem-leaning union"?
Kinda like how Rasmussen is a "GOP-leaning pollster"?
Her voting history is practically the same as McCain, her beliefs and ideals are the same as McCain and apparently on issues such as the war she can claim ignorance because as she said "I haven't really followed the war"
Palin same as McCain, McCain same as Bush.
To the extent that independents may be disaffected Republicans of the fiscal conservative but not obsessed with sexual issues streak, I don't see how Palin is going to appeal to them much.
Also more and more the real issue isn't so much anything about Palin, it's the hotheaded, impulsive, rash decision-making that resulted in her pick.
What does everyone think of the change in partisan membership in Ras. He lowered dems and added repubs, or this would be a difference of 7.
Comments? I am not saying he did anything unscurulous, just, comments?
Nate, did you consider using the CD level results from SUSA for 538 regression purposes?
Guys (I repost this from the previous thread): notice that there IS actually Lower-level polling going on, at SUSA: They poll Congressional races and in the process ask for presidential preferences. Their numbers are at
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
Compare them with 2004 CD numbers at:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=932
This is actually better than State polling, because the demographic information is extremely significant. The results for Florida and New Mexico illustrate very well the enormous advantage Obama has built with non-Cuban hispanics - such that I doubt Florida could NOT be in play.
Unfortunately some of the results are tainted by convention bounces (and SUSA in general is a bouncy outfit). But take a look!
Hi Nate,
Why not just leave out the Zogby interactive polls as you indicate that these hardly pass the laugh test.
Couldn't we argue that these hurt accuracy more than help?
D.
Also, what were the ratings last night for the repubs? I assume they were bad since Drudge has not plastered them all over his site.
Why are Virginia and Ohio light blue even though we haven't had any polls form them recently?
Sure - just looked the Dakota poll up. An internal job.
Palin, whatever else you say about her, probably has locked down Montana and North Dakota.
VC-
As discussed (with you?) yesterday the national polls move the state polls in Nate's model. The wekness is at times like these when we have a paucity of state polling.
"Why are Virginia and Ohio light blue even though we haven't had any polls form them recently?"
because they have been pulled Obamawards by the national polls. Not dramatically, but slightly - Nate has been very open about how this works.
Got it, thanks. Makes sense.
"Palin, whatever else you say about her, probably has locked down Montana and North Dakota."
I guess you must think rural voters are superficial and easily manipulated.
I find that offensive.
VC-
Those big 6 electoral votes. Would you rather have Pawlenty and MN and MI in play?
It helps Colorado, too (evangelicals near CO Springs).
VC:
Ohio and Virginia are turning blue because the model perceives the nation as a whole turning blue, because of Obama's convention bounce. The model doesn't know it's temporary surge, so it's extrapolating to November from Obama's recent performance. It will correct itself once a) McCain starts trending upwards and b) state polls come in with state-specific numbers.
Sorry to have to disagree with you, Nate. I think McCain's bounce will be insignificant, and here's why: McCain thought to swamp media enthusiasm for Obama's big acceptance speech by making his shocking VP pick. It worked. In other years, it might have been a great strategy, but this election it's backfiring: with the Republican Convention just days later, McCain's shocking VP pick has swamped the entire Republican National Convention in public interest. Of course, interest in the RNC was low to begin with, but now all anyone cares about is Palin. Maybe McCain gains a point on Obama, but that's it. The polls have already factored in reaction to Palin, and that's about all that the electorate can absorb this week.
VC, I think you need to forget Montana. I spend a lot of time there, and while they are quite conservative, they are across the board a lot more libertarian than Republican.
The economy is the only thing they're talking about in Montana, and Bush is widely disliked.
They see McCain as more of the same, and Palin as a phony. There are Obama yard signs everwhere in every small prairie town in this red, red state. It's really quite a sight.
and since Tuesday's occurred to late in the evening to be reflected in most interviewing.
Also since the major networks decided that pundits talking about the convention was more important than actually showing the convention.
Why go all the way to St Paul if you're going to ignore the speeches, anyway? Why not just pretend the convention isn't even going on?
"There are Obama yard signs everwhere in every small prairie town in this red, red state. It's really quite a sight."
If that's true, it gives me hope, not about the election but about the possible positive future of this damaged nation.
I'm serious.
@allsburg
not quite sure I agree with you, but I definitely don't agree with Nate either.
So far the Rep convention has been basically useless judging by the comments etc? So basically there are two speeches to go to make a big difference. Let's be generous and say that somehow McCain gets a 2 point bounce for each (and he's a poor speaker). At most that would pull the polls down to Obama +1. There just isn't that much TIME left for a convention bounce.
Filistro-
Palin has a libertarian streak. Shes great on guns, which is an important issue in Montana. She can grab enough Barr voters and energize enough NRA people to put McCain well over the top. Ditto ND.
allsburg:
I sort of agree. I think McCain's convention bounce is going to be significantly below Obama's, because he simply has less room to grow - he's already consolidated his base. It's just that this time around, his base is much smaler numerically than Obama's. And I doubt huge numbers of independents are going to tune into the RNC coverage. I predict that Palin's speech will be watched by maybe 1/2 to 3/5 of the 38 million who watched Obama.
@vc
I might be wrong on this, but won't lebertarians be concerned when they head about her trying to ban books, and firing anyone who disagrees with her? Those don't sound Libertarian to me...
Dawolf go to libertarian sites like the Reason.com blog. They're ecstatic about her.
RATINGS!!!! Where are the overnights!!!!!!!
"Also since the major networks decided that pundits talking about the convention was more important than actually showing the convention."
That's how these things work. The DNC was the same. The main difference is that the Clintons and Obama speeches had actual news value. I can promise that Palin's speech tonight will be delivered with no one talking over it.
VC:
Do you relly think that th majority of voters in any state, even in Montana, will go into the voting booth on Nov. 4th concerned primarily with *guns*? I'd maybe buy that if the economy were humming and we weren't at war. Maybe.
Humanist,
If Obama is tied in the Florida district that includes Hialea, then you are right these are important numbers.
The PA 10th is also interesting because it was solid R until Carney won in 2006 and is still virtually 100% White.
Obama's down only 50-41, which if a general trend in PA, puts the state solidly in his column.
NM1 is also pretty R and Obama is up by 14 and winning every demographic. Obama peels more R's from Mac than Mac peels D's from Obama. Obama crushes him with I's.
Nate, why not incorporate some of these polls? State by state is better than national, but district by district is where the rubber will hit the road in November.
Reason.com will get over it once they get to the content...
Virginia Conservative --
You'll need to explain how Palin helps in MT & ND. Palin has no special link to either state. In ND alone Ed Schultz has more influence than a first-term governor in a distant state.
As for MT, there are some people in the westernmost part of the state who might be attracted to the GOP ticket because of Palin, but these are the folks who think McCain is too liberal, & that pool of votes is a very small one. Probably not even enough total voters to effect an election in Wasilla.
Geoff
Folks, everyone needs to a deep breath on Palin and think Oct.
I am hearing a lot that older women and white men over 50, who earlier were unsure about Obama, or were leaning McCain, are now seriously asking themselves and discussing among their circles, IF they can really Vote for McCain at age 72 in Nov, given S Palin's background and experience.
Also, there are very many ruffled feathers in the Jewish community in Florida, over not just the Palin pick, but news stories that the right and Karl Rove kept McCain from picking Lieberman.
So, what am I saying?
Net, net come Oct, I strongly believe that McCain will win some women voters, get enthusiam and turnout from conservatives, but net net due to older voters, men over 50 and FL Jewish voters, it will be a net net negative for McCain, and thus from a electoral vote perspective, McCain could end up losing FL.
I believe when all is said and done, if McCain loses FL, he will be toast, and the Palin pick may cause him to lose FL, something he was not likely to do if he had picked a more experienced VP for the older people and a non-threateing one for the Jewish voters.
allsburg, interesting point. I've been fascinated by the McCain campaign -- with the Palin pick -- feeding the media a huge serving of raw meat over the usually quiet Labor Day weekend. And the media have been gnawing it relentlessly. A key will be the TV ratings for the Palin and McCain speeches. Obama at 34 - 40 million viewers set a very high bar there. The number of people that actually see Palin, vs. just hear about her from places like the Enquirer, is critical for McCain.
Quantman-
I have to see some polls from Florida, not anecdotes. If we're losing Florida badly by the end of September McCain can throw in the towel. There is no likely scenario where he wins without Florida. It is just too big of a prize. I don't think she is as horrible in Florida as we have been lead to believe.
Besides Palin can help in North Florida.
VC
a) VP's don't determine voter behavior except in the negative. People aren't going to vote for McCain due to his VP pick. However, they may vote against.
b) McCain doesn't have, and didn't have a base problem. Look at the numbers- where he is hurting. This is why this race to me is over except for the voting. To even make this close, the pollsters have to pretend that the number of Democrats and independents is lower than it is. Assuming your argument is true (it's not, but let's pretend) Palin doesn't help with the very voters he wanted to attract with her- Clinton voters, women, etc.
In short, I think you are grasping at straws. I also agree that I think the Obama bounce (again looking behind the numbers of where his new numbers grew)is sustainable.
The last thing any rancher in Montana worries about is whether someone will try to take his guns away.
"Not gonna happen," they say tranquilly. Never, uh uh, no way."
But they know their centuries-old ranches are theratend by this economy, because if you can't sell what you grow and you can't get credit from the bank, how do you pay the bills and hold onto your land?
They're fed up with Republicans, would have voted Ron Paul if they could but are prepared to give the Dems a chance because they like and trust Schweitzer. Both their senators (Baucus and Tester) are also Dem.
You're lying, VC. Again.
I don't like lying, and I especially don't like Republican hacks lying about libertarians.
"Dawolf go to libertarian sites like the Reason.com blog. They're ecstatic about her."
I just went there. I can't find a SINGLE positive thing about her there except for one blog entry that basically says "it could have been worse".
I did find this:
As the Sarah Palin choice epitomizes, John McCain has been willing to sacrifice any principle to become president.
And this:
With "Reformers" Like This, Who Needs the Status Quo?
Put up or shut up.
Broadcast nets last night for repubs, about 10 million viewers. The dems had about 14 million viewers.
Last night:
10:00 NBC Republican Convention 4.93 1.4/4 1.0/3
ABC Republican Convention 3.03 0.9/2 0.7/2
CBS Republican Convention 2.94 0.9/2 0.6/2
Dem convention:
10:00 NBC Democratic Convention 6.04 1.7/5
ABC Democratic Convention 4.27 1.0/3
CBS Democratic Convention 3.39 1.0/3
VC-
Palin has a libertarian streak? Do you even believe your own garbage anymore?
-She was on McCain's pork list when Wasilla had not gotten substantial earmarks before she got there and originally supported the Bridge to Nowhere when it was on the American taxpayers' dime.
-Wasilla went from no debt when she took office to $20m in debt when she left (sound familiar?)
-Presided over increased regressive taxes on commodities
-Tried to ban books (leading to a protest on the streets of Wasilla when she tried to fire the Library Director)
-Fired a whole board when it looked like they were going to axe the Matanuska Maid program which was hemmoraghing money, ending up costing the state more than $900,000.
I've brought the facts (and there are PLENTY more). Your turn, chuckles.
quantman:
I'm not sure if he'll lose Florida, but here's what I definitely see happening. Elderly voters in Florida start shifting towards Obama, because the idea of McCain shuffling off to leave the country in Sarah's hands unsettles them more than the idea of being governed off the bat by Obama/Biden, especially since Obama has been making so much emphasis on Biden being a partner in government and not just a back-up plan.
Once the polls all over start moving Florida more definitely from "Lean Rep" to "Toss-Up," McCain will have to face the tar truth that either he does everything he can to win Florida, or he is going to lose, period, regardless of just about anything else he does anywhere.
So he's going to start sinking money into Florida. Florida is a hell of an expensive market. And McCain will be constrained by public financing, which will break down to about 42 million per month. Obama has proved that he can easily raise 50+ million per month even in the summer doldrums.
So in the end, if Palin really does turn off a percent or so of the elderly, the black hole of Florida airtime might yet bankrupt McCain.
Virginia Conservative said...
Quantman-
I have to see some polls from Florida, not anecdotes. If we're losing Florida badly by the end of September McCain can throw in the towel. There is no likely scenario where he wins without Florida. It is just too big of a prize. I don't think she is as horrible in Florida as we have been lead to believe.
---------
VC, of course nobody knows for sure, but there are 3 things, if true, working against her in FL.
1) If she was a pitch forker for Bucchanan
2) If she sat through more than one sermon at her church that had anti-semitic overtones, like the Jews for Jesus one.
3) If Lieberman really was shoved out by the Palin pick.
All of these could play into losing a significant percent of Jewish voters. The net effect may be multiplicative and not just cumulative.
If many Jewish voters are also national security/Irael security voters, then her inexperience could also impact negatively and tip the scales.
Nice Cherry Picking, rhys. They also had in an earlier post that she is the "closest thing to a libertarian" on the national ticket.
Nate --
The most remarkable thing is the amount of uncertainty your projection has right now. Its a big jump up from just a few weeks ago. There's red and blue all over the place.
Do not underestimate just how much Jews hate the "Jews for Jesus". It is a Christian operation deliberately designed to turn Jews into Christians through deceit.
If she is associated with them in ANY way, Jews will turn to Obama in droves. And don't forget that most Jews are Democrats anyway -- just give them a reason.
We need state polls, we could sit around here and debate forever.
Dems with 40% more viewers than repubs on the real first night, not bad.
"Nice Cherry Picking, rhys."
It's not 'cherry picking', you lying asshole. Those are the ONLY two articles on the front page about Palin.
Thank you for the answers on Rasmussen. I get it now.
Signs don't vote, but people do. Try not to read too much into that.
"Fickle moron voters" usually do most of the working, living, and dealing with real problems, and don't worry about politics until they have to vote. They don't know who Andrew Sullivan or Matt Drudge are and don't have the time or think about it or care.
Florida and Alaska are so similar they are basically the same state.
Palin will carry Florida for McCain, hands down. They don't believe in birth control in Florida either, it's all about abstinence-only and celebrating the Nazi legacy with Pat Buchanan. Palin will be loved.
I was really surprised at how the daily rasmussen must have dropped (otherwise BO would have an 8 or 9 pt lead in the 3 day tracker). I mean, all people got on labor day and tues was non-stop palin bashing by the MSM.
Speaking of ratings I wonder how much the NFL season opener Giants vs. Redskins will effect the ratings of McCain's speech and will it matter?
Nate,
As always thanks!
And thanks to many of the thoughtful and informative comments.
To Virginia Conservative:
I respect your insight. However, I think you do not fully comprehend the 1-2 punch of Biden's daughter in-law being Jewish, Biden's very long history of support for the Jewish people, his strong support and for Israel, VS. Sarah Palin's record on this subject, given that McCain was blocked from choosing Lieberman.
This is BIG! The Jewish community in FL CANNOT be won over by ads. They discuss among themselves in groups, its then viral (not so much via the internet vs. telephone), that then feeds upon itself and is difficult to change. This is happening as we speak.
Also, I hear Clinton, Gore and Kerry will all be sent to FL, along with Biden to really push for FL during the last 4 weeks.
McCain is definitely, and will be, in trouble in FL come late Sep/Oct and it will NOT be reversible due to what happened to Lieberman because of Karl Rove. What people don't understand is that that were many Jewish people (older ones, just like Hillary Clinton's older white women), who were told hush-hush that they could potentially see a Jewish VP before they die. Just like with Hillary and white women between 50-70. So, this is indeed BIG and it is not being talked about in the media, because a lot of them are Jewish, and they don't like to do this kind of story about their community.
BTW, I am 100% NOT Jewish, but have very very many Jewish friends. I am a hard core quant based consumer marketer who has a ear to the ground in the Jewish and business commmunity of marketers.
I am willing to say this with strong conviction as a both a quant guy, a marketer and one with many ears to the ground.
Cable news showing a clip of Mac slapping Levi on the shoulders and welcoming him to the convention.
The GOP plan seems to be to push these children to the spotlight and then complain that media is attacking Palin's daughter.
I am not convinced that this tawdry soap opera thing GOP is now selling is going to appeal to moderates. Exploiting a pregnant child and then attacking the media is supposed to bury the Troopergate; it is very Rovian, but just a tad too creepy.
Quantman-
I think any loss among Jewish voters could be outweighed by energizing the Alabama part of Florida even if McCain loses some in the New Jersey/New York part of Florida, if you know what I mean.
This has to be the worst convention scheduling and luck ever. Kick the convention off on a holiday, then get a hurricane.
AND END THE CONVENTION ON NIGHT ONE OF THE NFL SEASON!!!
Yes, Thursday night is the first regualr season game, Giants v Redskins. Noone will be watching. Palin's speech is all that matters. Lots of stress for an amateur.
Jason, sorry I did not mean to step on your thunder.
I think the NFL kickoff really hurts McCain. What red blooded American male is going to flip past football to watch a convention.
"The worst decisions I have made, not just in politics but over the course of my entire life, have been those I made to seek an advantage primarily or solely for myself."
-- John McCain
Obama needs to get some ads on that NFL broadcast!
You guys always say how awful McCain's speeches are. So why would it be a bad thing if fewer people watch it?
They are burying McCain's speech on purpose - this is now a celebration of Sarah Palin and Christian right.
She is the new face of GOP - and abortion is the number one theme. Moderates are out - it's all about the base.
Virginia Conservative:
Because there's only one thing worse than mediocre publicity, and that's no publicity.
I have to second Rhys on the Jews for Jesus issue. Forget Buchanan, Jews for Jesus is POISON for jewish voters. I lived in Atlanta for many years, one year, a Jews for Jesus group tried to get 'cute' by holding a New Year's service across the street from the orthodox synagogue and advertising it simply as a service for the holiday without the JFJ affiliation to lure the unknowing. This resulted in a fight that went all the way to city hall, led by the bubbie brigade.
This one will take a lot of explaining. She does not have time to explain and if you are explaining it means they don't trust you and you are loosing.
Is McSame going head to head with the NFL opener? Also, with Obama on O'Reilly will anyone but McSame's base watch his speech?
@vc
because then he doesn't get ANY bounce. If the Reps don't bounce out of this convention then you're looking at less than 60 days to go, 5 points behind, ground game behind, with a vp who's leaking votes v a vp who's likely to gain them.
It would come down to ace the debates, 3-0, or lose.
Also since the major networks decided that pundits talking about the convention was more important than actually showing the convention.
Why go all the way to St Paul if you're going to ignore the speeches, anyway? Why not just pretend the convention isn't even going on?
This was true of the DNC as well...
It sure looks like the craps shooting Quickdraw McCain is shouting, "Let it ride!" on Caribou Barbie.
Meanwhile, the Rovians and Christian right cheer him on.
Although I am dubious this will work, I don't believe he has another option.
I am sure their internals and focus groups during the DNC forced their hand.
We will see what happens in Florida when there is a poll. I think you guys are engaging in a lot of wishful thinking. Remember, there's more to Florida than the area Orland and southward.
Interesting comment from another blog:
David Brooks was on NPR today and said that the McCain people saw some internal polling last week that was SO BAD that they decided that they had to do something to really "shake up" the campaign, and Voila! - Palin!
Those must have been some REALLY BAD numbers that they saw to jump the shark like that, and to have Brooks basically throw them under the bus today for the Palin choice.
What I would give to see those internal polling numbers... and to find out why the Zogby's, USA's etc numbers don't seem to be showing the same results - YET!
@vc
Florida was only what, around 2-3 points in McCains favour before the Dem convention. Since then Obama has gone up something like 4-5 nationally. So even without any special Florida bounce, Obama should be ahead there.
As regards special Florida bounce - all those old people there who normally go for the safe option - McCain/Palin is now riskier than Obama/Biden.
Jewish population of Florida: 3.7%. Of actual voters this might be rather higher, even as high as 6%. But this means that even a major Jewish swing amounts to 1% of the total. It's not nothing but it's not changing elections.
I don't know why we keep thinking about the Jewish vote; it used to matter when the Urban centers were at play, but they are now all completely Democratic and the Jewish vote is among the least significant in American politics.
It's too bad we don't have any honest conservatives here. I know they are out there.
Would be a refreshing change from the talking points spinmeisters and people like VC who make one false claim and audacious lie after another, and then when caught, just change the subject.
Just saw early excerpts of Romney's remarks.
John McCain's centrist, middle of the road, moderate stances, are being overshadowed by the very very strong hard edge right edged conservative speak.
This will again scare off many many Hillary Clinton women, Jewish voters, Independent undecideds and anti-war independents. Net, net how is this a positive in quant terms, in the battleground demos and states??
I think the McCain camp's hard shift to the right will scare off many in the middle.
Porridge, I didn't hear that from Brooks, but it makes sense to me (See above).
dawolf-
I still don't see Florida turning blue on Nate's map despite the good national polling for Obama.
Plus Republicans control the Governors office, that's a big advantage in turnout (ask Eddie Randell about the PA primary).
I've been talking for quite a while now about how I sense a "sea change" in this election... a nationwide, almost generational power shift that goes far beyond the usual push-pull of politics.
And this sort of thing makes me think I may just be right.
"Florida and Alaska are so similar they are basically the same state."
Uh, Ben, you shouldn't post while indulging in psychoactive substances.
I've been to Alaska, & I've been to Florida: they are *very* different places. For one thing, one is much, much warmer than the other. For another, one has far more mountains than the other.
And then there are matters of population. Last I checked, there is no large populations of Jewish retirees & Cuban exiles in Alaska. Also, did you know that there are *three* different ethnic kinds of Native Americans in Alaska: Aleuts, Eskimos, & what we used to call Indians. (Maybe we can call them "Dene", which is the name some of them use in Canada, to distinguish them from the other two groups.)
Should I also discuss how politics are different between these two states? Or have I made my point?
Geoff
To Rhys,
I find it disrespectful and inappropriate to call VC a liar. You might interpret the data differently, you might challenge his description - but please don't call him a liar. That adds only heat, not light.
VC,
I think your anticipation that Palin might help in Colorado because of the evangelicals around Colorado Springs is interesting and not convincing. CO voters (along with NV and NH) are pretty strongly pro-choice. I think net net that Palin hurts the Repubs in CO.
Former P.O.W. says McCain is "Not cut out to be President"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KjsEs46C70
TOP-
IIRC, though, that is how Bush secured Colorado in 2004. He got the CO Springs area to turnout big time.
Palin can tap into that evangelical ground game now.
VC-
The whole problem is, all Palin does, at best, is increase turn out among already republican groups. McCain needed someone to bring in moderates. He thought a woamn was enough, but boy was he worng.
This is not about winning - this is about preventing a GOP collapse. The party machine forced Palin on Mac in order to protect the Virginia and North Carolina firewall.
Sarah is going to get the Jesus crowd rolling in the aisles and speaking in tongues - finally a national candidate who is willing to ban books and openly talk of outlawing abortion even in child rape cases.
She will creep out the moderates and lose the Midwest - but that's not the point. The point is to whip the Southern Christians into ecstasy. Guns and "God's war in Iraq" and "Jesus blessing this gas pipe".
In an effort to move the polls their way, the party that promotes strict abstinence and shouts “Don’t bother our kids” is itself going to showcase the young lovers tonight? Just what the 18-year-old ex-hockey player who is no longer enrolled in school needs! Rock star status! What a message to send our young students:
be abstinent if you want, but if you aren’t, don’t worry! You could be introduced as a national poster child and hero for all those who are not abstinent. Fifteen minutes of fame for your five seconds of carelessness! And the GOP talks about Obama getting the rock star treatment?
@vc
Florida is only being trend adjusted from 2.8 to 1.7 so far, so only a 1.1 point change compared to the actual ~5 points. That's because Nate has deliberately (and wisely) built delaying mechanisms into the model so it reduces variability.
Nevertheless, if the national change is also in play in Florida, it's going to be light blue on that map as soon as a couple of polls there come out (and as the trend adjustment figure becomes stronger with time, assuming Obama stays at +5 on the trackers).
Turnout in this race wil matter, for Obama in FL, PA, MI, MN, CO, NM. The evangelicals can't overcome the good ground game. Bush had the ground game last itme, Kerry did not.
Dawolf if Florida slips away it is over, there's no way McCain wins after that. Not under any reasonable scenario anyway. So, we'll see.
It would be good for Republicans if Palin energized the Religious right, the right wing of the NRA crowd, and those Republicans whos bread is buttered only when their party is in office.
Because the above is the Republicans "bottom line" vote. I truly can see no other constintuancy voting in any numbers for a McCain/Palin ticket.
If McCain/Palin wins then America IS an Extreme-Christian religious state. Much closer to Iran than to modern day Canada and Europe.
Interesting but really quite appalling.
"I find it disrespectful and inappropriate to call VC a liar."
I find it disrespectful and inappropriate that he constantly lies.
I've pointed it out when he's done it, and I'll keep doing so until he stops.
filistro - thanks for your input on MT. My anecdotal information from family and lifelong friends is pro-Obama.
VCon - my own son (37), born in MT, lived in AK for several years. The addition of Palin turned him from undecided to adamant Obama supporter.
VCon - VA internals suggest VA is McCain. To my surprise, internals for OH are Obama.
"In an effort to move the polls their way, the party that promotes strict abstinence and shouts “Don’t bother our kids” is itself going to showcase the young lovers tonight?"
Amazing, isn't it?
Really? I can see Ohio going for McCain and Virginia going for Obama, but I have a difficult time seeing it the other way around.
People shouldn't assume all conservative Christians will vote for McCain because of Palin. This is having the opposite affect with some Pentecostal fundamentalists and others out there have very strict rules as to a woman's roles in the family. Being one heartbeat away from the Presidency crosses this boundary and for this very reason will not vote for McCain now.
Just thought I'd mention this.
Classic NFC East Match-up could pull a significant portion of the East Coast population off of the convention. Many fantasy teams will have players from these teams in play (the first night of that season, too) and this may mean that many men won't get the McCain message first hand. Just 33% of the NFL audience is female (http://www.dmwmedia.com/news/2006/12/05/why-the-nfl-struggles-to-attract-female-fans). I that significant? We have two months of NFL escapism before we are confronted with the choice of President and I for one would much rather catch the first game of the season. It may be the last night the Redskins have a winning record, so I'm going to enjoy it while I can.
PS Did anyone mention its also sweeps week i.e. new 90210 show, does that help or hurt coverage?
@vc
oh, I'm not sayng Obama will win Florida. I'm saying that IF this national change is repeated he's going to go ahead there. I'm far too cynical to think that a Dem can win there with a Republican Governor unless they're a long way ahead.
McCains problem is that there are the following options for Obama
Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Nevada+New Hampshire
any of which is probably enough for a win. I simply can't see him winning any of the Kerry States bar perhaps NH, and Iowa & New Mexico are very likely to swing.
He has to win 6/6 of those options. That's tough when he's behind in 4 of them already, and as I said will probably be behind in 5 very shortly (NC is more of a long shot, admittedly).
Va Con was right.
VA is more favorably for Obama than Ohio. But Obama have nwe young people in OH that can help him. New students.
The final result in OH depends the average for Obama in Cleveland and Cincinnati.
CNN just reported its own polls:
IA: Obama 55%, McCain 40%
MN: Obama 53%, McCain 41%
OH: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
DaWolf, i think that NH was more difficult for Obama than IA and NM.
Bush won Iowa in 2004 for only 0,4% and he takes all the state evangelical vote.
IA and NM are sure blue in this election.
Virginia Conservative:
It's not just FL, it's all the moderates and indepedents.
These are people McCain has cultivated and the hymmns now are very very strong, and loud, hard right conservative. NO room at all there for moderates.
That is the current Cadence. And cadence matters to people in the middle.
This will ring hard in the ears of the people in the middle.
And all this war, military stuff in lieu of pocket book economy stuff has got to get the rust belt folks in MI, PA and OH thinking hard, hard, hard.
Lower taxes mean little to them, if the jobs and their companies are going down the drain. Lower taxes means little to the rising ranks of the employed, including the conservatives who are unemployed or at perceived risk of being unemployed, shattered home equity values and a declining real estate martgage market for those expecting in retire in the next 5-8years.
I believe McCain's campaign needs hard core consumer marketers. They are missing some very important demos I believe with this hard right, war/defense/military/past focused and less ecnomy/future focused cadence at their convention.
I am fascinated by some of the internal poll stories. I have wondered for a while if McCain realizes he has a potential upper limit on his numbers. He has rolled out some fairly negative stuff on Obama already, and has been scrabbling around for a message. Why did he feel the need to scramble the jets in what appeared a close election?
jakam, got a link? Can't find it on the CNN front page, though I only looked for a couple seconds.
Please tell me we left the whole fake poll thing behind last week...
a) Virginia will be hard. It depends on what my section of the state does (if Obama is keeping the gap close in Southern Virginia) and how much he rack up votes in NoVa. That's how Webb won. Well, that an early voting. This is also a hidden Obama plus. Minus for Obama isn't religion- that will help him. The minus for him is race in my part of the state. Lots and lots of red necks. I am less worried about this in other states like OH, but am definitely worried about it in VA.
b) Florida has several things that are different this time that weren't true in previous years. Not the least of which is AA's can't be denied the vote through GOP sheenigans. The composition of the Latino vote in the state has been changing from Cuban to PR and DR. The younger Cubans are more Democratic. The Jewish vote and NY retirees. I say lean McCain, but not by much. The massive voter registration which has been occuring there. All of it by 10 to 1 Democratic.
By the way, whoever compared FL to AK is an idiot.
c) Ohio is a toss up, but based on what my friend a Republican has said- he believes it will go Obama. The economy is big. The GOP has lost consistently in the last few years. They no longer control the levers of power to depress the Democratic vote. Remember the Dems narrowly lost it the last time. Indeed, again, with Blackwell's sheenigans, amongst others. We were out organized in 2004. We aren't this year. There are other factors that I think deeply favor Obama in a toss up.
jakam: Linky?
"I simply can't see him winning any of the Kerry States bar perhaps NH"
I highly doubt McCain wins NH. There is a republican streak there, but the anti-war sentiment in New England is huge.
McCain does have an upper limit around 45%, maybe he has lowered it with this pick. His only shot is to get BO's negatives way up. It is a long shot.
Dwill2k8-
50% of the males in America will watch football on opening night.
"Why did he feel the need to scramble the jets in what appeared a close election?"
Because it's not really as close as the media has tried very hard to make it appear.
McCain has a good chance in NH, since hes basically met the entire population of the state personally between his run in 1999 and his run in 2007.
Those CNN polls sure look great for BO. LEt's hope they stay there.
I second the motion to incorporate SurveyUSA's Congressional district polls... BUT we should be careful to note that the polls have been extremely volatile the past week and a half. So if a poll is taken today in a CD and it shows Obama up by 2, that is very different from the same results a week ago or a week from now. The Super Tracker might smooth out the volatility of the national numbers too much to really adjust the numbers at different dates to the national trends.
Also, this shouldn't be attempted until we can get more like 15 or 20 CD polls.
Can someone explain to me why Iowa is such a lock for BO despite the fact it was a nail bitter the last two times? I don't see any great demographic shifts happening in a place like Iowa.
Listen all this stuff about the Jews in Florida is correct. First off I am not Jewish, I'm Rocabu. I live in Sarasota, FL. and we have a small Jewish community here. But there are large Jewish groups in Florida and they take their politics very seriously. This JFJ stuff is VERY offensive to them. If this is true McCain is toast in Florida.
Now I am a bleeding heart liberal and I could care less what people say about me and my leftist views. With that said I was not too concerned if McCain won because I felt he would be better then this dolt we have now. I figured he was going with Libby, Mittens or Huck. When he picked this woman and I realized that he is not fit to command, he is truly out of touch and was pandering.
A few more things, most of my wife's family and my family are Republicans and almost every one that I spoke to are voting for Obama.
Mother, 80 years old, Obama. NJ
Mother-in-law, 78, Obama. FL
Father-in-law, 82, Obama. FL
Sister, 59, McCain (Evangelist) NV
B-in-law, 60, Obama NV
Their two sons 21 & 18, Obama. NV
Sister, 55 and B-in-law, 55, Obama (and they were die hard Bush supporters) NJ
Brother, 58 and S-in-law, 51, Obama NJ
Wife, 51, Obama FL
Me, 52, Obama FL
Son, 27, Obama, future daughter-in-law, 27 McCain. FL
So that is 15 people and 13 of them are voting for Obama. And two of the States are toss ups, FL & NV.
Now I don't know much but I think it is going to be a big night for the Dems on November 4th.
Obama will win N.C. I have lived here all my life and the electorate is leaning on a leftward cliff with its vote prepared to swing. The energy and $$$ already behind the House Democrats, the Democratic governor's race and the Democratic senate race. Besides Obama has many more field offices here than Kerry had or MCCain has. If all the Dems win then I expect the Presidency to go Dem, too. That means the 7 million and GOTV did its job.
I go to Iowa on business, they are hard working honest folk and they hate Bush with a vengance. Obama also spent more time in IA than anywhere else and I think he shook every hand in the state. Finally, they know him and feel comfy as IL is right next door.
IA is a lock.
The backlash begins...
I agree that the Jewish vote is not that important, but remember what happened in Florida in 2000... a few thousand votes could matter.
--
"I think what hit me strongest, was the irony," said Ira Forman, executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council. "How ironic that Joe Lieberman was talking about reaching across the aisle and bipartisanship. Yet, if we are to believe the McCain spin machine Lieberman would be the vice presidential pick and yet there was no way the delegates would have accepted that because he's a Democrat. There was no bipartisanship there."
Link to new CNN polls
I'm trying not to get too excited here since we're still in convention bubble land.
@VaCon:
Can someone explain to me why Iowa is such a lock for BO despite the fact it was a nail bitter the last two times? I don't see any great demographic shifts happening in a place like Iowa.
Obama spent a lot of time late last year in Iowa working the primary, something McCain didn't do nearly as much. He also has a great organization left over from that early primary.
The demographics are similar to Wisconsin and Minnesota, where Obama is also winning comfortably. But it's definitely more pronounced here.
Obama will win N.C. I have lived here all my life and the electorate is leaning on a leftward cliff with its vote prepared to swing. The energy and $$$ are already behind the House Democrats, the Democratic governor's race and the Democratic senate race. Besides Obama has many more field offices here than Kerry had or MCCain has. If all the state Dems win then I expect the Presidency to go Dem, too. That means the 7 million and GOTV did its job.
"Because it's not really as close as the media has tried very hard to make it appear."
This is very true. This is all about narratives, not real dynamics of the race or who has the major structural advantages. If you look at money, polling results (that aren't manipulated by changing party ID), organization, the economy, demographics of the voting politic, early voting, changes in the laws to advantage Democratic voters since 2004, the change in several swing states to Democratic leadership (ie, OH), the number of options Obama has to win versus McCain needing perfect storm, the ticking t ime bomb that is Palin's ethics issues and involvement in AIP, the change of some of the swing states such as IA from being close to being out of contention. If you look at all of that and more,then it's hard to argue that is really close. It's close in the way that it appears numerically, but if you look behind the structural advantages that favor obama it really isn't. The only significant advantage Mccain has is race. Not in a "he's a racist way" but in the demographics of the counry. I rarely agree with David Sirota, but he made a good point about Apalachia and similar demographics during the primary.
"If you look at all of that and more,then it's hard to argue that is really close."
Agreed (since you quoted me, obviously).
The wildcard is the sleaze factor. Never underestimate the Rovians and what they will do to win.
NEW CNN/TIME POLLS
OHIO: Obama lead by 2 : 47-45
MINNESOTA: Obama lead by 12 : 53-41
IOWA: Obama lead by 15 : 55-40
http://thepage.time.com/
"Can someone explain to me why Iowa is such a lock for BO despite the fact it was a nail bitter the last two times? I don't see any great demographic shifts happening in a place like Iowa."
As a commenter said above, Obama spent significant time and resources in this state for the better part of a year. McCain has not. Conservatives there just aren't that excited about him and Obama grabs a whole lot of independent / Weak Republican support.
I spent five months in Iowa for the caucuses on the ground. There isn't a doubt in my mind that Obama will win it, probably handily.
Watch the non-Cuban Hispanic vote in Florida this time around. They were cool to Kerry, IIRC, in 2004. Correct me if I'm wrong. McCain certainly has better odds in Florida.
McCain hasn't led in any Iowa poll since the spring.
Virginia Conservative said...
Can someone explain to me why Iowa is such a lock for BO despite the fact it was a nail bitter the last two times? I don't see any great demographic shifts happening in a place like Iowa.
-------------
Just my humble opinions:
Iowa made Obama... loyalty and pride
As you said about McCain in NH, Iowans feel they know him personally.
Iowa borders Illinois, regional loyalty/understanding
Iowa doesn't know McCain (He always focused on NH).
Obama's farm and ethanol policies.
McCain is also very much anti-ethanol and anti-farm bill...that plays well in many parts of the country but not so well in Iowa.
Rocabu! I love it! Yay for religious pluralism!
In my admittedly narrow experience, Ohio certainly feels like it's shifting towards Obama.
I have (redneck, racist) family members from a rural area who have had nothing but venom for Obama for the past six months. Last weekend, they were so put off by the Palin selection that they seemed to be leaning Obama.
This is anecdotal and only a couple of people out of several million voters, but if this sort of thing is common - if Obama is actually siphoning off Republican votes in rural Ohio, it's game over. Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown are all going to go big to Obama. Columbus and Canton are going to be close. If he's going to win, McCain has to win Cincinnati, southern Ohio, and western Ohio by huge margins. Bush managed to do it, but I'm beginning to thing McCain may not.
Just my two cents. Which probably isn't even worth that much.
I have a feeling if Huckabee were on the ticket he would have put Iowa back in play.
(Sorry if this is a repost, can't find the one i put a few minutes ago).
The comments are really improving. Thanks to many of you for your comments and your information. I am learning a lot. As to the opposition, VC has certainly cleaned up his act from earlier. Mule Rider has so far kept his word, and Stop-the-Stutter, (the name itself makes the blood boil), hasn’t been around for awhile. It is all good. Having said that, let me move the mean downward.
Reed College rocks SM. Leftist women are the hottest. I’ve been with a woman from Evergreen since old John was living in the POW camp. She and I had a lot more fun back then than he did, to my view that’s just because we weren’t on a mission to kill in vain.
Remember McCain was against the budget busting Bush tax cuts before he was for them.
Experience, ready to be president was the criteria before he thought a Moose-bashing Barbie would do better.
REMEMBER, he says character is his main qualification both before he called his opponent an appeaser and a traitor and after.
My touch stone for McCain's character is his joke at the expense of Chelsea Clinton. I don’t give a damn how long ago that was, Character is not supposed to be subject to time.
This election is not about Obama, it is about preventing more ultra conservatives from joining the Supreme Court and protecting our democracy from four more years of the republican concept of elected dictators in time of war, (or anytime?). Just say no to perpetual war. We are tough enough and brave enough to have a vigorous open democracy and keep safe while doing so.
As for the older Jewish voters, again this is anecdotal but my mom's friends who have been resistant to Obama have all come around since Palin. They were all Clinton supporters before hand.
Huackabee would sure be better than Palin. They ARE NOT evangelicals in IA. They are good old fashioned protestants.
Isn't Huck just as bad as Palin on foreign policy?
Re Ohio
We must also understand that Bush only managed to beat Kerry because he out organized Kerry in the state, and the GOP held the structural levers of power there. Remember the l ast time the Dems were "surprised" the GOP were so organized and were scrambling to catch up. In a close race this time, there is no such dynamic.
I never really got a feel WHAT Huck thought on foreign policy, exactly. He ran almost entirely as a domestic candidate.
Nate, I agree with whoever said above that it is time to seriously consider dropping the Zogby Interactive polls from the site. The simple fact is that those polls can hardly be considered scientific with their non-random samples and other methodological flaws. I think they are far more likely to introduce error in both directions than they are to add to the predictive value of the model.
Re: CNN polls - wow. Not bad at all.
Unseemly maneuver by McCain's campaign:
Monday-Tuesday
"Get your filthy paws off her precious kids!!!"
Wednesday
"Look, everyone, meet her precious kids!!!"
I have two kids. If I run for office, they are OUT of the spotlight, off limits, I am fair game but they are not. I do not use them for political gain. They and their health are NOT an issue, be they pregnant, Downs syndrome afflicted or somewhat nearsighted in their left eye.
That's the real reason a significant chunk of the electorate is pissed off at McPalin. The kids are now supposedly a reason to vote for her. Icky.
Hi, guys. First post, but I've been lurking for quite a while. Of course Nate's work is an extraordinary public service and all, but more to the point I have to say that overall the level of discourse in here is impressive. Yeah, you get an occasional troll eruption, but who doesn't? Y'all seem like a smart and varied bunch. There are sharp elbows in here, but it's not a total flameware and it's not an echo chamber. Kudos.
I have to ask: can somebody fill me with a quick primer on this Jews-for-Jesus thing? The Palin revelations have been coming in hot and heavy, and I guess I missed that one.
From Harold Meyerson -- and it's spot-on:
But the economy is not all; the GOP's last best hope remains identity politics. In a year when the Democrats have an African American presidential nominee, the Republicans now more than ever are the white folks' party, the party that delays the advent of our multicultural future, the party of the American past. Republican conventions have long been bastions of de facto Caucasian exclusivity, but coming right after the diversity of Denver, this year's GOP convention is almost shockingly -- un-Americanly -- white. Long term, this whiteness is a huge problem. This year, however, whiteness is the only way Republicans cling to power. If the election is about the economy, they're cooked -- and their silence this week on nearly all things economic means that they know it.
I am a lifelong Iowan (between 62 and death), and the enthusiasm for Obama has grown since January. And our AA population is confined to large cities. The negative and misleading ads that began in the last week of July and continue apace here on Mr. McCain's behalf and the selection of his running mate really solidified Obama's hold here. They pushed undecideds and independents such as me firmly into the Obama camp.
Palin's speech is paramount, some of these folks could go back to the wrong side of the road if she hits a home run.
VC,
Huckabee would have been possibly the strongest pick. I get a very strong feeling he turned it down. He's viewed as the "outsider" candidate now who has a cushy commentating job, and is probably positioning for a future run.
Adam I'm on record saying here that Huckabee would have been the best, the anti-Biden if you will.
Really? I can see Ohio going for McCain and Virginia going for Obama, but I have a difficult time seeing it the other way around.
Judging just by the SurveyUSA favorables in OH and VA, Ohio looks much more likely for Obama than Virginia.
Re: Jews for Jesus
Palin allegedly attended an address at her church by the founder of the organization.
Noonan and Mike Murphy on an open mike telling us what they really think---(short version---it's over, more or less)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrG8w4bb3kg
jakam, got a link?
None yet...I got it straight from Bill Schneider's mouth on TV about 30 minutes ago.
I can't get youtube at work. Got a summation?
Has a campaign ever pulled an ostrich defense before? I mean will the nasty boys from the press leave cuz you can't see them?
I think that's trying to put out a fire with buckets of gasoline.
Jakam-
Linked above. Go to the CNN political ticker.
I can't agree more Moondancer. If that is the strategy she has to withdraw, doesn't she?
Can McCai run a one man campaign, where the public never meets the VEEP? Nope...
Semi-worthless anecdote re: Huckabee as VP choice...
Both my parents, my father-in-law and my brother, all lifelong Republicans, have all "confessed" to me that they will vote for Obama.
Three out of four of them REALLY liked Huckabee. He would have changed one of their minds, at the very least.
Thank you McCain. Whew.
Not sure of the quality, but a poll of women just relaesed seems to confirm what was mine and mony others' argument against the Palin pick even before all of the scandals started surfacing.
In short women, are unimpressed, worried about the experience view it as a pander, and somewhat offended.
It's a pretty good read, but it would nice if someone with more knowledge chimed in about the reliability.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080903/pl_afp/usvotewomen;_ylt=AsMbuC08q5o9KzPd1WA_hHtsnwcF
I don´t see Obama winning in NC but he put FL in play with Biden.
Three months ago, I said that Huckabee was the only Rep candidate I would never consider voting for, because of his religious views.
But I always respected the man and at least felt he was genuine.
Given a choice between him and Palin I'd vote for Huckabee without a second thought. And if it were between Huckabee and McCain 2008 ("Candidate McCain" as Kerry put it) -- it would be a tough call.
That open mike thing is HILARIOUS!
Sullydog-
The threads here degenerate after 200 or 250 comments. Until then it's pretty civilized most days, you're right. Welcome aboard.
Yep, I noticed that. Thanks Brad.
If Nate counts them, I presume those numbers should spike the % Obama wins for IA and MN well into the 90s...
If life-long republicans will vote for Obama, that´s a sign he is a moderate center-left candidate. He isn´t a leftist, he´s more moderate that leftist.
If he win, he will be another Bill Clinton.
Lat, that is pretty damning.
I am not sure Huckabee was vetted or really thought about by McCain, though I agree he would have been a smart move. I think conservatives will have been turned off a Governor with a more progressive record than some Southern Republican Governors. But I think at the same time, he was probably as close as evangelicals were going to get to one of there own, and had the maverick thing going on well in the primaries.
I don´t see Obama winning in NC but he put FL in play with Biden.
Biden probably ticked Florida up slightly. Joe Lieberman and the rantings of Sarah Palin's pastor probably spike Florida up tremendously.
We need an update Nate!!!!! These CNN pols are great.
Do we know what other states CNN is polling in their battleground polls? They must be polling FL, right?
CNN state polls:
Looks great for Obama in Iowa and Minnesota, but we already knew that - Upper Midwest white voters of all stripes love Obama.
Ohio looks tough. These polls were taken when Obama had a 6 point lead nationally, and Ohio is only up 2 for Obama. To be honest, I think if it comes down to his resources, Obama needs to focus more on defending MI/PA and playing offense in VA/CO/FL and even NC. There are not enough liberal suburban voters and black voters in OH for him to overcome his defecit in Appalachia (there are enough of these voters in MI and PA).
I think everybody likes Huck in terms of personality, at least.
Ahem...
Transcript of hot-mike snafu with Peggy Noonan, Chuck Todd, Mike Murphy;
Noonan: [Can't hear since Todd (who is still on air) is talking over her]
Murphy: Um, you know, because, I come out of the blue swing state governor world. Engler, Whitman, Tommy Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, I mean, and these guys, this is all how you win a Texas race, just run it up, and it's not gonna work.
Noonan: It's Over.
Murphy: Still, McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech and do himself some good.
Todd: [can't really tell what he says, but he mentions something about "insulting to Kay Baily Hutchinson]
Noonan: [says something I can't understand]
Todd: She's never looked comfortable up there..
Murphy: Oh, fuck that.
Todd: I mean, is she really the most qualified woman they can obtain?
Noonan: The most qualified? No. I think they went for this, excuse me, political bullshit about narratives...[couldn't hear the end of it]
Todd: Yeah, but what's a narrative?
Murphy: I totally agree.
Noonan: Every time Republicans do that, because that's not where they live and it's not what they're good at, they blow it.
Murphy: You know what's the worst thing about it, the greatest of McCain is no cynicism, and..
Murphy and Todd together: This is cynical.
Todd: And as you called it, gimmicky.
NB; this was the same day Noonan wrote an op-ed saying that Palin was a 'clear and present danger' to the left. Compare and contrast her real opinion, above. :-)
Holy shit. I had no idea McCain did this much damage to his ticket with this pick.
"And when asked which ticket had the most experience to run the country, 52 percent opted for the Democrats compared to 37 percent for the Republicans."
Consider the narrative of the entire campaign up to last week. This is staggering!
Virginia Conservative said...
Can someone explain to me why Iowa is such a lock for BO despite the fact it was a nail bitter the last two times? I don't see any great demographic shifts happening in a place like Iowa.
Ethanol.
I mean, Iowa has lots of other things going for Obama, like location and the time Obama spent in the state. But ethanol subsidies are what puts it so far out of reach for McCain. Without the ethanol subsidies, it would be almost impossible to make money with a farm in Iowa. There's just too much corn that can be grown on a small field- the supply overwhelms the demand.
Don't be shocked if Missouri goes Obama for the same reason. Corn prices live and die on ethanol subsidies.
Wow, now there is the first honest republican comments I have heard...holy cow that one hurts.
Talking about Palin. From the "hot mic" Youtube
Peggy Noonan: Its over.
Murphy: McCains strong suit was no cynicism, this is like you [Chuck Todd] said ... a gimmick
Love the open mic thing. I think people are going to viscerally respond in a positive way to honesty, especially since they've been so inundated with spin.
LAT said...
Noonan and Mike Murphy on an open mike telling us what they really think---(short version---it's over, more or less)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrG8w4bb3kg
-----
OMFGZXZTYHZJHG!
Noonan and Murphy are Republicans they just destroyed the Palin pick.
No need to summarize. Just read the comments from Rhys, LAT, OTF, me et al.
Cynical, stupid, all about narrative, no substance, ridiculously inexperienced etc. etc. Said most establishment R's feel the same way. Noonan called it a "bullshit" pick.
This needs to go viral!
Caribou Barbie and Quickdraw McCain are certainly bi-partisan mavericks... The VP choice is hated by both sides of the aisle.
RealClearPolitics markets gives McCain 51% winning VA. Obama gets 48%.
And in OH gives Obama 52% winning when McCain gets 48%.
Lat THANK YOU for the GIFT!
If you normally don't follow links
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrG8w4bb3kg
POW POW POW POW POW
If he win, he will be another Bill Clinton.
Good. All of the skill, charisma, and good governance but none of the drama.
What more could you ask for?
I talked to two PUMA types. They are insulted by MCCains notion that a fringe conservative would appeal to them. They've both come home to Obama this day....
I think it is safe to say Mike Murphy's days of being friends with McCain is over now.
Nate, a technical comment.
It would be interesting to run the "super tracker" from time zero being the third day of the convention (or after the conclusion of all the conventions). After two weeks of data, we should be able to get a good estimate of the convention bounce by comparing the model ending at the beginning of the convention period with the model after the convention event. Clearly this is more academic than predictive, but it would help quantify the narrative of this election.
Looking at the current tracker there are at least two clear events where the fundamentals shifted abruptly and a discontinuity in the trend line would be appropriate: the Hillary exit and the convention.
LAT and Virginia Conservative:
I was floored by the Peggy Noonan's open mike comments.
Really, really floored.
She has a very good gut sense, in my view.
If she feels the way she does, as a Republican woman political operative, and saying that within earshot of a media and poll/quant guy like Chuck Todd, it is very very instructive.
I bet the RNC is so pissed off at them right now.
I think Mike Huckabee will put IA in play.
But now McCain´ll be said Bye Iowa.
the old perfesser said...
"VC, I think your anticipation that Palin might help in Colorado because of the evangelicals around Colorado Springs is interesting and not convincing. CO voters (along with NV and NH) are pretty strongly pro-choice. I think net net that Palin hurts the Repubs in CO."
First thanks OP for the civility. We Conservatives are outnumbered on this site at about 10:1 and every few days the attacks on us get so bad I end up flaming some return fire or tuning off the site for a few days.
ANALYSIS - PALIN IN THE WESTERN SWINGS (CO, NM, NV, MT)
COLORADO
The Colorado Springs (El Paso County) Evangelics are overemphasized. El Paso County is basically a Texas county culturally, with a mix of Hispanics, old ag, military, CR, and no small number of across the spectrum Democrats. Colorado's CR vote is widespread throughout the state playing a major role in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th CDs. Democrat Bill Ritter won the Governorship running as a pro-business, pro-life, devout Catholic moderate. He ran way to Obama's right.
Palin's strengths will be many in Colorado - she will appeal to:
1) The military vote (although that's an energizer not a number's turner).
2) The anti-Washington, states rights, libertarians in the 3rd, 4th and 5th CD.
3) She will knock down Barr's numbers on the Libertarian ticket (Western states tend to vote 3rd parties) and Keyes on the American Constitution Party.
4) She will move numbers in Colorado's good government moderates IF the allegations concerning her actions in the Trooper case fall away. This will hurt badly in CO if they hold up.
5) Gun Rights, Hunters, Self-Sufficiency types - this is huge in all but the 1st and 7th CDs.
I think Palin hurts McCain in the 1st and 2nd CD. I think her Pro-Life CR influences net a wash in the 7th, and help only slightly in the 6th.
NEW MEXICO
Mostly ditto the CO comments regarding groups with one addition:
Native Americans - Assuming 1st Dude Todd's links to the Trooper scandal don't take him down, his Native Alaskan hertitage and his advocacy of Native vocational ed and jobs will be HUGE in NM Indian populations. Palins support of her husband's passion for this is a major asset.
MONTANA
Ditto New Mexico including take on Native Americans
NEVADA
Nevada is unique and needs to be thought through on its own.
1) Palins states rights battles against Dept of Interior is a huge asset. The Establishment doesn;t recognize how hated the Feds are in the West due to their absentee ownership of large percentage of these states. And the Katrina like bureacracy that makes its living by treating the peeps like serfs.
2) Nevada has a large number of libertarians, the state is pro-choice.
Bottomline - the Indy voter is waiting to see how Palin performs in her speech tonight and in her debate vs. Biden. Also, the battle to vett and define Palin will influence their thinking. I'm I 100% confident in Palin, No way. I have yet to see her speak extensively on ideology nor really connect into leadership with follow me optimism and capability. But, she did something right in Alaska ... certainly Gov Kaine would love to have her numbers.
Good post Glenn.
What do you think about economics issues in CO?. Can it help Obama or no?.
Noonan/Murphy/Todd open mike honest discussion about the Palin choice is up on Politico.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/0908/Murphy_and_Noonan_on_open_mic.html#comments
Any rebuttals from VC or Glenn et al?
Many of us said the exact same thing Friday (pre-scandal) that these Republican operatives said today.
Anyone? Bueler?
Ouch for the R's. That tape...
But before we completely leave the "Huckabee could have saved McCain a lot of heartburn" theme, you have to consider the importance of winning the media's collective heart. Bush 43 did it in 2000 and IMHO that's the main reason he won - the media did not feel compelled to override the narrative he provided.
Generally, reporters hate people who like to ban and burn books. It's in their blood.
Generally, they like people who appear authentic - NO MATTER THEIR POLITICS.
Huckabee wins on both counts, and thus would have fulfilled the main goal of a VP nominee:
Do. No. Harm.
Palin? Not so much.
The political operatives/Washington insiders aren't thrilled with her, that is for sure.
Murphy is moderate so I didn't expect he would like it, but I'm a little floored by Noonan.
Why McCain picked Palin (This is my opinion, not fact)
I do not think that one can say there is 1!Count it! One! reason. (I am both amused and mystified by the public dialog that says there has to be one primary cause for every decision.) I think that several factors combined to push McCain in this direction.
1. Read David Brooks's Op Ed piece in the NY imes. (and, lest you right wingers immediately jump all over this column because it's in the NYT, Brooks is a conservative. Not, admittedly, of the religious right or the zealous "no governmental programs" types, but definitely conservative - in the old strain.
He thinks that Palin and McCain have a commonality of outlook. Here's the link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/02/opinion/02brooks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin (you may need to log-in, but probably not. I think they let you have a few pages before rerquiring you to regster.)
2. Mcain realilzed his strategy of picking off groups of Democrats due to the split in the Dem party was not going to work, based on the response to the Dem convention. My guess is that their internal polling was conveying bad news, and he thought he would need to stir things up.
3. He ws quite frightened by the Obama ground game, and realized he need to pump up the base to be able to compete. It was the Republican superiority in the ground game, I think, which kept Ohio Red in the 2004 election. This ground game came from the volunteer efforts of the Christian conservatives. I think he is hoping that the results of this ground game gain (and it be real) will more than compensate for whatever losses Palin causes at the margin. I think he's wrong, but it's a rational, if likely not orrect, strategy.
hey y'all glad you enjoyed that open mike vid.
This is exactly the problem as the first transcriber said---Noonan in public says one things (like lot of pundit types, to try and set things i one direction) but what they really think? Not so different from what those of us have been seeing since Friday.
I am sure this is already going viral.
Great insights Judas...
The ground game argument is probably number 1 in my book. Energize the Christian right and GOTV!
Virginia Conservative--
I agree re: Huckabee. I don't agree with him on many issues and I wouldn't want him to be President, but I agree he's very likable on a gut level. I really thought McCain would have been well-served to go with him. It would have made evangelicals just as happy as Palin, without the "WTF" factor.
And, yeah, he'd make Iowa more competitive. It's not just that Obama's well-liked in Iowa, but McCain is actively disliked there, partly because he's perceived (fairly) as having blown off the caucuses to concentrate on the New Hampshire primary.
WOW. Yeah, damn right it's gone viral.
Peggy Noonan's inflection of the words "political bullshit" is sexier than anything Sarah Palin has ever done in her life.
That's the sound of northeast and midwest McCain support shriveling up...
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