When the Democrat is polling even with the Republican in states like North Carolina, and polling 7-8 points ahead of them in a state like Pennsylvania, that means the Republican is in a lot of trouble. While there are isolated results in this batch of polling that seem decent for John McCain -- he may have closed the gap in Colorado a bit -- several of these polls have Obama at or near the highest numbers he's been at all year. Likewise with the national trackers.
If it's any consolation to McCain, it's not necessarily clear to me that that the continued movement upward for Barack Obama is a direct result of Friday night's debate. Obama's polls yesterday (Sunday) weren't much better than the polls conducted Friday, before the debate had occurred. On the other hand, Friday's polls were markedly better for Obama than those from earlier last week. It appears that the principal driving factor is that, with each shock to the financial markets, John McCain has continued to dig himself in deeper. Although the debate and Sarah Palin's PR crisis may be contributing factors, that portends poorly for him given the news of the day.
9.29.2008
Today's Polls, 9/29
@ 9:27 PM
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266 comments
"Same reason I want the Cubs to win this year even though I did nothing to help them."
As a Dodger fan I appreciate your lack of help to your prefered team. I am hoping that goat thing is real, because the Dodgers were not the best in their division, just the least sucky.
@Vanessa
Why did you tell me that? I totally needed to go to bed...Sigh..oh well :-) lol
"As a Dodger fan I appreciate your lack of help to your prefered team. I am hoping that goat thing is real, because the Dodgers were not the best in their division, just the least sucky."
The difference between baseball teams is small enough that a five-game series is nearly a coin flip.
The Cubs and Dodgers are about as far apart as two playoff teams can be, and that's still just about a 60/40 edge for the Cubs in the series. I'd say the Dodgers have about a 40% chance to win the series.
If this bill was a crap sandwich, it was the Republican and conservative ideology that brought the filling. Of course they had to eat it. That fact that they couldn't bring themselves to it is sheer cowardice.
Good news for Obama. But I gotta say, the trend-adjustment looks like it's just doing too much work in Florida and Ohio. There are several recent polls in both states that show McCain narrowly ahead, so the extra information by adjusting up old polls seems like it might just be noise.
For example, it seems irrational to adjust that +5 O three-week-old Quinnipiac poll (McCain bounce time) to an Obama +8 (or whatever it is) with a higher weighting than any recent poll. I think the model would be better if the trend adjustment would be more like the 538 regression--important when other data is lacking, but not important when lots of recent polling exists.
I'd love to see Nate do more study of how true the key contention of the trend-adjustment hypothesis--that states move with the national trend--is for hotly contested places like OH, FL, CO that seem slightly more stable.
For all of you bozos that don't believe that Terrance Battleground is the best national pollster out there with McCain having the lead. Read it and weep. Battleground hit it spot on along with PEW. Most of the rest were off by very much such as Gallup. They made the mistake of apportioning the undecided to Kerry. What a mistake that was.
% % Bush
ELECTION RESULTS
Based on certified results, compiled by the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate
50.75 48.30 0.36 0.59 2.45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollster Vote Projections
DETAILS Survey BUSH KERRY NADER OTHER Margin
Dates % % % % Bush Kerry
Zogby 11/1-2 49.4 49.1 0.3
Battleground: Tarrance (R) * 10/31 - 11/1 51.2 47.8 0.5 0.5 3.4
Battleground: Lake (D) ** 10/31 - 11/1 48.6 50.7 2.1
TIPP 10/30 - 11/1 50.1 48.0 1.1 0.8 2.1
Harris 10/29 - 11/1 49 48 2 1 1
Democracy Corps (D) 10/29-31 48.7 49.5 0.6 1.0 0.8
Gallup 10/29-31 49 49 1 1
Pew Research Center 10/27-30 51 48 1 3
i'm still nervous I'm not resting easy
The best thing about the increasingly loopy bailout narrative is how hard it is now to spin McCain's role as anything but schizophrenic. More confusion to drive into the concrete of Palin's skull.
I mean, I've followed it all quite closely, but am still at a complete loss to navigate the timeline lucidly.
And I'm not a complete idiot, unlike Palin.
I'm torn. I like both the Cubs AND the Dodgers.
From what I understand (and I don't pay much attention) there's a whole BUNCH of teams making it to the playoffs that haven't in decades. which I think is really coold.
Ed M. said: "He" is screwing with you. He's an Obama voter.... Seriously, folks, grow a parody detector."
My parody detector is working fine, but repeated daily postings on the site over the past X number of days solid of stuff from "HE" (and let's put "Real Joe" on there too since I'm at it) is causing my "who cares if it's parody or not, it's f@king annoying" meter to peak in the red. Not that I think your 'parodist' (if (s)he is one) gives a crap if it's annoying or not.
"The Cubs and Dodgers are about as far apart as two playoff teams can be, and that's still just about a 60/40 edge for the Cubs in the series. I'd say the Dodgers have about a 40% chance to win the series."
Make that 40% of a winning a game and I would believe you.
Regarding Ohio and Florida, I see Florida flipping to Obama before Ohio. I think they both might flip though.
Random thought: Do you think Nader will have less than 2004 nationwide? I think maybe, despite the whole PUMA garbage, because the uber-progressives who ordinarily vote third party will be vote Obama because of the opportunity to end the old white guy monopoly. Any thoughts?
Hey Jack-be-Nimble,
I don't know exactly what you are trying to proof. So they called the last election correct. So what you are saying is that 5 tracking polls that all show leads well outside their margin of error are wrong. Let's calculate. (0.05)^5 is about 0.00003125%. Woohoo, your guy sure is showing them.
Cool. Wack-be-dimbulb is back.
Have to admire him for persistency; I have not read a Pete Kent comment in a while.
I can't access the 'hidden pages' from my mobile phone. My phone won't allow me to open a separate window so I can view the newer comments.
More under-the-radar news today, barely covered with the "my feelings were hurt so I let the stock market go to hell" Republican wimpout today: The Ohio Secretary of State's decisions (a Democrat, natch) on early and absentee voting were upheld across the board by state and federal courts. The GOP's (latest) efforts to suppress the vote were defeated.
Stuff like this only adds to the Obama ground game, I assume, and makes it easier for young voters to get that ballot in.
Obama 08. We're closing in.
Jack - you are still ignoring several polls that had it within .5 points, including ABC who recently said O+9.
"I have not read a Pete Kent comment in a while."
I noticed that too. I wonder where all the right wingers are these days?
I volunteer in the Obama HQ in Richmond, VA. Re: the Application for Absentee Ballot forms people have been receiving unsolicited--the republican party sends them out. They appear to be copies of the Virginia form. If you mail it to the address on the form it will serve as a request for an Absentee Ballot.
Assuming you meet the criteria for receiving an absentee ballot, one will be mailed to you and you can complete it for whichever candidate you support.
I've fielded several calls from voters receiving these forms. I've advised them to not use them and instead either visit their registrar or download the form from the Elections Division website. I've been told, though, that the forms appear to be valid forms and that there shouldn't be any problem using them to request a ballot.
If You wanna spend Your $$ wisely, donate to "Defenders of Wildlife" They need $$ desperately for running their"aerial gunning" commercial!!!
It really gets past the brain-film, AND hit right home!
~SPECIAL COUNCIL FOR THE TREES...
Sooo... how is Ohio THAT blue - with a +1 for MCcain today?
Same for FLA for that matter...
"Sooo... how is Ohio THAT blue - with a +1 for MCcain today?"
The +1 is one of only a few polls taken since the national numbers moved sharply to Obama, and the +1 comes from a pollster that has been strongly Republican-leaning all election cycle.
"The +1 is one of only a few polls taken since the national numbers moved sharply to Obama, and the +1 comes from a pollster that has been strongly Republican-leaning all election cycle."
Also, according to that firm, McCain has lost three points in a week.
The trend it clear.
Stop asking questions on why certain states are the way they are on the map. Nate has his methodology and that is the way it has been the entire time(minus a few minor changes). It's more complicated than just looking at the last poll
Heheh.
http://SarahPalinMeltdownCountdown.com
I see the point about that pollster having bias - but i wonder if trending (using a turbulent week with so many events) might have too large an impact. Maybe not... I would be concerned its flipping too fast. I just have a hard time believing FLA, OH, VA are all Blue states... Trust me, i will be happy if it turns that way.. just have to see it..
"""Stop asking questions on why certain states are the way they are on the map. Nate has his methodology and that is the way it has been the entire time(minus a few minor changes). It's more complicated than just looking at the last poll"""
Eyeroll... Im sure he does have a methodology - but im sure even he questions it from time to time.
My family also received a request for an absentee ballot from McCain's campaign. which is real funny cuz all we have in our household is true-blue democrats and im wondering why mccain wants to waste money on us? must be getting desperate cuz enclosed was a bunch of talking points against the dems. but sending it to a household that has consistently voted democrat for the past 30 years seems strange. Warner is kicking serious ass here and it looks like we may turn blue on Nov 4th. (fingers crossed)
RAS Trend M O
9/28/2008 48% 47%
9/24/2008 47% 46%
9/21/2008 50% 46%
9/14/2008 48% 45%
9/08/2008 51% 44%
8/18/2008 45% 41%
7/21/2008 46% 40%
6/17/2008 44% 43%
It looks like RAS will be polling OH a lot. I wonder if by next week O will have finally evened up or taken a 1% lead. Either way, it looks like OH will be a nail biter.
blind006wdw,
They sent it to see if he gets returend if you chmaged your address and didn't update. The yare trying to find ways to purde people off the roles.
The Repubs are trying all different ways to purge people, from trying to keep foresclosure people from voting, trying to find returned mail sent, to see if you have an middle intial on your registration and not on your voter id card. The Repubs will try to suppress the vote anyway they can.
I am hoping Ohio is an afterthought and not a nail biter.
I am sure Nate questions his model all the time; that is why I have confidence in it. Of course, I am not very statistically sophisticated so my confidence is probably worth slightly more than nil.
Kerry + Iowa, NM & CO is all that's needed, and that even lets him lose NH. VA and NC are gravy, FL is dessert, and OH is a landslide.
And about Palin delivering the speech ... that's called being literate. Most of that speech was written BEFORE she was even chosen to be VP. There's no teleprompter at the debate and no Mc sitting next to her. The best thing is if Ifill presses her and Biden just talks policy.
I wonder why nobody's made a "Leave Sarah Alone!!" spoof video yet.
I stand corrected:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fi7pYuQU3RE
While PPP has Obama up two in NC, its poll still underrepresents the projected African American vote by 5-7 percent and may well underrepresent the under 30 vote. Given the very large crowds that Obama drew in Charlotte and Greensboro last week, the heavy new registration by the Obama campaign before the primary and in the last six weeks, and the absence of any real McCain campaign on the grouncd in NC, it appears that the McCain internal polls may be showing that they need to fold their tent in NC
"@Jack-be-nimble said...
Terrance Battleground is the best national pollster out there . . . [blah blah blah]."
Jack -- even a stopped clock is right twice a day. I suppose Terrance could poll 50 monkeys, discern what they are saying as Terrance saw fit, and divine the final vote total. Maybe it would be accurate. maybe it wouldn't. But . . . s what?
"it appears that the McCain internal polls may be showing that they need to fold their tent in NC"
They can't do that.
If they lose NC, they could win NV, NH, OH, FL, MO, IN and even get a shock in MN and they *still* lose. And that's ignoring the fact that it'd be hard for Obama to win NC but not VA.
There's just no realistic path to victory for McCain without NC, so they can't give up on it.
While PPP has Obama up two in NC, its poll still underrepresents the projected African American vote by 5-7 percent and may well underrepresent the under 30 vote
I would think the Obama campaign agrees with you. I don't know, of course, but I'm think the registration and turnout this year will be worth a point or two across these states. Given the close nature of the polls, that may be all Obama needs. Add in the ever-increasing number of close states, and it may be "all he needs" to end up with a landslide. I don't want to count on it, but I'm wondering...
I noticed that too. I wonder where all the right wingers are these days?
Hopefully in deep meditation trying to figure out why they cheerled a regime that managed to bring about a calamity of a war and a financial apocolypse at the same time.
If Obama wins NC and VA, then the election is over right there. No need to even count the other states.
McCain would have to sweep every remaining close state, and somehow pick up CO (where he's polling way behind for the most part) and PA (where he never polls ahead).
If this is a chess match, NC is McCain's queen. The game still keeps going when the queen is lost, but it's only a formality.
I never said don't question the methodology, just stop asking why a state is blue or red. It's stupid. Question the methodology but quit bringing up individual states because of a poll or two, it just gets annoying.
If NC is really in 'toss-up' territory with just a month to go...its time for a serious 'uh-oh' moment from our friendly elephant lovers. Now, their exact words may be a bit more colorful.
Is there any point at which other states, like Montana and Arizona (say), start to turn into battleground states?
The reason I ask is because it looks like Obama is taking all states that aren't the reddest of reds. It doesn't look like there's a whole helluva lot of polling in the McCain-locked states. Makes sense, of course, but it'd be nice to track the trends internal to the red states too.
I mean, I used to live in Arizona. Sure, there are a lot of republicans there; and sure, it's McCain's home state.... but it's possible that he could lose it, even though there's a ten point spread.
When I look at the reddest of reds, I just think about how much I can't believe that they're that red. They must have fricking blinders on. McCain and Palin are so fucking stupid, they're making me stupid just for listening to them.
Desperation alert, my friends:
The newest meme on the right is that ACORN, community organizing, and subprime mortgages (read: colored people who don't pay back their loans) caused the current financial crisis. Rush Limbaugh talked about it today, NRO's running around the edge of it, Free Republic is full of it, and I've seen McCain's Zombie Blog Posters dropping comments on news sites all over the country. That is the last/final push they're going with: the stock market crash, the financial crisis, the economic problems are not only not the GOP's or Bush's fault: they can be specifically blamed on Obama and other minorities who forced Congress to relax lending standards to make the banks give loans to people who couldn't afford them. Those people (and "those people" includes illegal immigrants) didn't pay them back, and the markets crashed.
Racism is the last card they have left, it seems.
We will know the fate of Virginia at sometime around 8pm on election day IIRC.
If it's blue (which it looks more and more like it will be), then us Dems can break open the champagne, and the repubs can break out the hard stuff, because it's going to be a long night for them...
Not being able to name a SCOTUS case besides Roe v Wade wouldn't be an absolute deal-breaker for me. But I'll just bet she was ranting about unelected activist judges legislating from the bench, when Katie called her on it. Not to be able to name a single instance, other than Roe, of such activism would be pretty lame.
Of course, i'll be watching when history happens and my beloved NC goes blue for the first time in thirty two years.
Despite what the GOOPer trolls have been saying for the last two months, Obama WILL be rewriting the map for dems for years to come...
torrentprime-
Why ever would anyone think that the rich old white dudes were at fault for a failure in the financial industry they dominate?
It is clearly the fault of Mexicans and blacks.
I think the Republicans are getting soft. They left out the gays and the feminists.
Jen: :)
Actually, some of the posts at NRO blaming one of the banks for touting its diversity record at the same times as it was failing financially did toss around the gay thing here and there, so they weren't able to resist it completely.
And on FreeRepublic, since Barney Frank is so much in the news these days, they can't discuss him there without throwing in a "f@ggot" or "child-molester" now and again. Too well-trained by the haters.
If anyone is bored, The freeptards are still in denial
Same ignorant "MARXIST HUSSEIN!!!" bullshit, and same idiots still thinking the "bradley affect!!11!!" isn't being accounted for.
It's going to be quite humorous to see what happens there after election day...
Ok, folks: I know things are looking nice for Mr. O, but we've all been burned too many times by the nasty GOP machine to be complacent.
Reality check: remember, there are a whole lot of folks out there who will always give a sympathetic ear to the "American Hero" McCain, and that provides any number of potential openings for them. And racism certainly ain't dead (not that I believe in a Bradley Effect, but I definitely think that Obama will hit a ceiling at some point--but hopefully not too low in too many swing states).
Never underestimate the ingenuity of the Rovian operators at the GOP. They will keep making stuff up until they find something that works. It is a million years till Nov. 4.
The fat lady has not yet sung, and she still has over a month to get on stage.
Lots can happened between now and November 4. I hope the trends for Obama continue, but I am very cautious.
Freeptards!!! My g'ma always said... you can't reason with stupid but I'm still thinking about stirring that pot o' stupid.
nc_voter-
I have never gone there before. There were some posters that were somewhat rational. There were some that were funny crazy, some scary crazy, but all need to master basic grammar.
I feel kind of bad for them. I remember how I felt when it should have been clear that Kerry was not going to win. I grasped at a few straws too.
"Freeptards!!! My g'ma always said... you can't reason with stupid but I'm still thinking about stirring that pot o' stupid."
I wouldn't; you might get something on your shoe.
Don't feel sorry for those people Jen. They are some of the most Xenophobic, semi racist, anti-intellectual people on the internet. True occasionally you'll find one of them that is somewhat rational, but, well, some of them also truly think that Obama is the next Stalin or something...
The "Freeptards" are really freaking out. Some are clinging to hope that all the polls are wrong, but most are just clinging to their guns and religion. They absolutely love the Battleground poll.
I think we know what the McCain & RNC strategy is for the next five weeks; All vitriol, all the time.
I think we'll get a clue as to how the Dems will respond by Biden's posture at the debate Thursday. I think he should "go easy" on Palin by ignoring her and attacking McCain at every opportunity.
I would love to hear him use (and he does have experience using other peoples's words) a famous colloquy in the British House Of Commons from about 60 years ago. If he is being asked why he is ignoring Palin, he can do the same thing as a Labor Member did during a question period. He had directed a question about one of the cabinet departments to Prime Minister Churchhill. When challenged as to why he hadn't directed his question to the Minister of that Department (which is what pprotocol strongly suggested), he replied that rather than question to monkey he'd question the organ drinder.
(Not that he should do that, but it's fun remembering those classic insult. If anyone likes such, they should look for a series of books by Nancy McPhee, a Canadian who put out several compilations of classic insults)
I love the Bristish question period. The government (prime minister and the cbinet) and required to answer questions on the floor of the House of Commons. I think they do it once a week.
The Palin-effect will kick in and PA will flip to McCain--then the rest of the rust belt. These Numbers are great for McCain. Also the Bradley-effect is clear too.
Is it over yet? Make it all stop. Someone said to me today that the markets lost them $50k in their 401k. How is that going to help the Republicans--oh yeah it is Obama's link to Wershington and Fannie & Freddie. Clearly.
Obviously the numbers look real good right now but we must be vigilant. Keep on fighting the good fight all the way until election day.
Make sure you and everyone you know is Registered To Vote
Mr He, sir, word: if you were a marine you would know how to spell Semper Fi.
For the love of...
NO CAMPAIGN CAN SEND AN OFFICIAL BALLOT!!!
Ballots come from your local elections office. ANY ballot you receive from a campaign is invalid and designed to make you think you voted when you did not.
PLEASE - at the very least - CALL your state's Secretary of State or your local government elections office to verify any ballot you receive from a campaign. Also, please let them know what you received in the mail.
We know conservatives are, by nature, liars and cheats and frauds. It's in their DNA. Please don't become just another name on some Republic party sucker list.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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