When the Democrat is polling even with the Republican in states like North Carolina, and polling 7-8 points ahead of them in a state like Pennsylvania, that means the Republican is in a lot of trouble. While there are isolated results in this batch of polling that seem decent for John McCain -- he may have closed the gap in Colorado a bit -- several of these polls have Obama at or near the highest numbers he's been at all year. Likewise with the national trackers.
If it's any consolation to McCain, it's not necessarily clear to me that that the continued movement upward for Barack Obama is a direct result of Friday night's debate. Obama's polls yesterday (Sunday) weren't much better than the polls conducted Friday, before the debate had occurred. On the other hand, Friday's polls were markedly better for Obama than those from earlier last week. It appears that the principal driving factor is that, with each shock to the financial markets, John McCain has continued to dig himself in deeper. Although the debate and Sarah Palin's PR crisis may be contributing factors, that portends poorly for him given the news of the day.
9.29.2008
Today's Polls, 9/29
@ 9:27 PM
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266 comments
WHOA! - LOOK AT ALL THAT BLUE!
As great as it will be to see Grandpa McWar and Caribou Barbie go down on Nov. 4, let’s not forget that EXTRA bonus we’ll get – the end of Holy Joe Lieberman’s political career. When the Dem’s banish Holy Joe to Siberia in January, all he’ll have left is Sarah Palin waiving to him from her front porch.
Hey! I just remembered, we haven't had a red security alert in a while, eh? I think the last time was, eh, just before the 2004 election.
If the rumor on Palin being unable to name a SC case other than Roe are true, I think the chorus of people calling for her to drop out will become deafening.
I don't know how any serious Republican would be able to support the McCain-Palin ticket after that. Didn't they used to consider themselves the serious, sober party?
Long Obama & Short S&P500
What a month!
It will be interesting to see if McCain's attempts to claim leadership in the bailout will result in its failure being laid at his feet.
4th!
I'm wondering how soft these gains are - if congress manages to put a patch on our deflating economy in the next few days will there be a backswing?
Also looking forward to the palin/biden debate. Lots of laughs!
seeing o top his previous trend line -- amazing
just watched some of bill o'reilly & obama, which I hadn't seen before - he was almost better on foreign policy than in the debate - pretty impressive to see him hold his own w/ o'reilly
Wow! VA is bluer than OH!
They won't drop Palin; it would be suicide.
-- I see how the model gets Florida for Obama, but color me skeptical. You might as well give him Missouri while you're at it.
But who need FL when you've got CO/IA/NM? Hold on, Colorado! Hold on!
You're not allowed to short!
The 9/7 poll for Ohio is still at #1 in the weighting... that seems like ancient history. Is Quinnipiac really that much better than the others?
If you're too impatient to wait for Sarah Palin's sure-to-be cringeworthy debate performance, you can now interview her yourself.
I've been saying this since June.
If elected, Obama will be the first President since JFK to win w/out Ohio.
It's interesting that lots of maps still have PA as a toss-up state. It's conceivable that Obama loses it, but it certainly isn't likely. FL would likely drift back towards McCain, I'd think, if the national numbers converge. If they don't, then the state polls will become irrelevant.
The mid-Atlantic states are looking surprisingly strong for Obama. Three straight polls showing Obama either even or with a lead! Hard to believe.
Does the model behind the trend analysis include some form of resistance to change beyond certain levels? Whether we think of it as a law of diminishing returns (fewer persuadable people remaining) or higher drag from aerodynamics (takes more to persuade a person) it would seem that momentum should not have the same effect when one is already ahead compared to when they are behind.
It's bad enough for McCain that Obama is leading by 5% with barely month to go. What make sit worse is Obama still has the upward momentum
God only knows what stunt Camp McCain is planning next. If they were panicked when he was a couple of points down in August....
What is the matter with Ohio? (To borrow a phrase).
I grew up there but haven't lived there for 20 years. Frankly I'm baffled how surrounding states with similar demographics like Pennsylvania and Michigan are solidly blue while Ohio is purple at best. I mean, even Indiana, a deep red state, is turning blue, but Ohio stubbornly refuses to budge. I gotta think the blue will bleed over to Ohio soon (they always WERE slow learners!) but any thoughts on this would be appreciated.
Do I have to tell you that these results are great? And for WHOM!?!?
"The mid-Atlantic states are looking surprisingly strong for Obama. "
There's going to be alot of analysis about how this map turned badly for McCain, but that's my preferred data point.
Once VA and NC became not only in play but leaning Obama, McCain's defensive map became completely unworkable. Combine that with PA never moving toward him, and there's your checkmate.
The 9/7 poll for Ohio is still at #1 in the weighting... that seems like ancient history. Is Quinnipiac really that much better than the others?
It has the largest sample size and is a highly-rated polling firm.
That said, that poll does seem inaccurate, considering the date it was taken (during McCain's bounce). I'd like to see a new Quinnipiac poll of Ohio.
Nate, I think you are trend adjusting too much, especially when you look at States that DO have lots of recent polling. Ref Ohio + Florida.
I would cut it back - you are assuming that a national bounce is spread evenly and I don't think that's a safe assumption. Cut it in half maybe...
Interesting story about cell phones vs land line usage- in WV
VA Con-
I agree on Ohio. I see Obama winning NC before Ohio at this point.
I got home from work at 6:00 and have been compulsively checking for today's poll numbers since. I was jonesing.
Re. Palin debate
I get nervous when folks start salivating before the event. It happened before Palin's convention speech too - and look what happened.
inkstain do you think either campaign will have any cash advantage?
"I've been saying this since June.
If elected, Obama will be the first President since JFK to win w/out Ohio."
Which means absolutely nothing from a predictive perspective. Unless Virginia's voters secretly consult with them.
The current numbers are awesome, but it´s mostly due to trend (although it´s excellent how Obama caught up to McCain in Florida and Ohio even in Ras - and PPP has got a new Florida poll incoming, that shows Obama at around +5). We have to see more polls in states that are a bit underpolled, and I am looking at you Nevada! (and Indiana and Missouri)
Still, the numbers don´t tell how the McCain campaign has run out of options, how they played all their cards and they didn´t work (another Ayers/Rezko/Wright ad? Another campaign suspension?).
The shockwaves of today will give Obama another 1-2% nationally. But they´ll be concentrated in wealthy blue states. There aren´t that many battlegrounds that are hit by the financial crisis even more than they were hit by the housing crisis (only exception North Carolina?).
I grew up there but haven't lived there for 20 years. Frankly I'm baffled how surrounding states with similar demographics like Pennsylvania and Michigan are solidly blue while Ohio is purple at best. I mean, even Indiana, a deep red state, is turning blue, but Ohio stubbornly refuses to budge. I gotta think the blue will bleed over to Ohio soon (they always WERE slow learners!) but any thoughts on this would be appreciated.
To be fair, there has only been 4 polls since Obama's recent bounce began, and 3 of them have been from Rasmussen, which has always shown McCain with a lead there, even when all other polls showed otherwise. I imagine when other polling firms start releasing Ohio polls, they'll show Obama with a small lead there (1-5 points).
Wow.
Wonder how long this'll go on.
Is more probable for Obama to win North Carolina than Ohio.
"inkstain do you think either campaign will have any cash advantage?"
That depends on how long the RNC maintains faith in McCain. If they can see the numbers as clearly as we do, they may spend most of their money on Congressional races and give the advantage to Obama.
Otherwise it's even.
Stick a fork in McCain/Palin. They're done.
McCain and the Republicans are trying their damn hardest to pin the blame for the bailout fiasco on Obama and the democrats.
It's a gamble, but McCain may gain from this by framing Obama as AWOL in a time of crisis. Of course that's a lie, but truth don't matter in politics.
I'm waiting for some kind of response/action on Obama's part. Will he play a pivotal role in negotiations? Can he pivotal role in negotiations? Or will McCain's shenanigans take root with voters?
If McCain's gamble pays off, then we should see some decent drop in the polls for Obama, and the show will go on.
Sorry folks, by the very nature of this campaign, it will not be over until the fat lady votes :)
So can we say that the closer polls in West Virginia help drag Obama's estimated performance upwards in Ohio and Pennsylvania?
Missouri is wearing a very subtle shade of pink these days. Quite fetching!
@becky sharp
agree about Palin's convention speech - although I've watched a few bits of it (not the whole thing) and quite frankly I wasn't impressed, I thought it was ok and nothing more.
This is different though - after Couric it's hard to see how she does well unless
1)she somehow either gets hold of the questions beforehand, or has crammed in just the right questions
2)she gets given an easy pass thanks to sexism.
It's a shame that the debate format is...well...shit. If the vice-pres candidates could ask each other questions and the moderator could ask follow ups as well I think it would be far better.
While the recent results have been great for Obama, something is a bit weird with the projections for FL and OH.
There have been too many polls showing both states leaning ever so slightly to McCain for them both to still project for Obama.
I agree with DaWolf, I think the model is assuming too much of a correlation between these states and the national numbers, and it should be cut down a bit.
The financial crisis help Obama, not McCain.
If Romney was the republican candidate, Obama doesn´t in good position, but McCain is bad in economy.
The Palin problem could start to eclipse the economy problem the second people are not focused on the more important economic issues. It seems pretty obvious that Palin is a pathetic excuse for a wise VP choice, even to opinion leaders on the right who are speaking up in the interest of keeping their credibility. She has lost all of the Christians who were enthusiastic about her that I know.
(They'll still grudgingly vote for that ticket b/c of abortion, but I don't know any more people who think she is a bright reformer/economic conservative, etc.)
Honestly, I don't think Obama will win Florida.
He will win Kerry + NM + IA + VI
And maybe even NC and OH
But not Florida.
Yeah, I'm a pessimist Obama supporter....
Which means absolutely nothing from a predictive perspective. Unless Virginia's voters secretly consult with them.
I am a Virginia Voter, and I do have an old college roommate who lives in Dayton and is on my Facebook.
Wait, what was the question again?
Buck-up, folks...Ohio and Florida have BEEN Blue since 2000!!! Can You say foul-play???
New game: check for a correlation between new 538 poll projection and intrade volume!
Jonathan (re: Palin and the Supreme Court), I concur. In fact, I think it may just stun Alaskans because one of the most important Supreme Court cases for Alaskans was the Exxon case decided only a couple months ago! It sure is telling were her mind is not--it is not on federal issues.
SurveyUSA poles tonight from swing states of PA and VA:
PA
Hussein 48
HeroMcCain 46
VA
Hussein 44
HeroMcCain 48
Sorry, libtardos, but VA will never vote for a Muslim comunist and Sarah Pallen is a hit with women.
Why do ugly lib females hate Sarah Pallen? Are libs just jealous babbies? Yes, they are.
MARINE SOLDIERS AND WAR HEROES FOR MCCAIN!
SAY NO TO HUSSEIN OBAMA!
SIMPER FI
oh go away he-twat
I don't understand the Florida projection being in Obama's favor.
I'd like to hear about that.
If Nate is right and the numbers are NOT due to the debate but rather due to McCains stunts last week, then these numbers could be rather more permanent. The wall street crash in the past few days will have erased the debate from peoples minds to a certain extent, imo, so any debate bounce would be very shallow.
However McCains blundering last week combined with the shenanigans today ("THIS IS OBAMAS FAULT, but its not a time to point fingers...") Will have tied it solidly into a narrative of McCain trying to use this crises to smear his opponent in order to win the election.
Obama however would seem to be right on the money in his initial statement that the injection of presidential politics into the negotiations would cause problems, and that's what people will remember.
By the way, can I be so bold as to suggest you guys actually ise a Sweedish nationalisation model for your rescue package? It might be against all your principles but it bloody works.
All the blue ink spreading on the EV map is excellent news for McPOW Nitwits. You are in a target rich environment.
Man, this stuff from people like "He" just sickens me. I knew it was going to get ugly, but man...
I wish more conservatives were like Virginia Conservative.
That said, what is the deal with Ohio? Kerry only lost there by like 100k votes and this is a much more favorable environment. Is it really just the race thing?
I'll bet that NC continues to trend more and more towards Obama as the financial crisis gets worse. Banking has become a huge part of the NC economy and one of their biggest (Wachovia) just went belly-up.
The only way Obama loses PA now is if he punches Joe Paterno, pees on the Liberty Bell, and shows up at a Steelers games wearing a Cleveland Browns jersey.
G-Man, about the color-coded alerts... you don't travel by air, do you? I had to fly between Oregon & Ohio twice last month, & every airport except PDX had announcements that there was a "heightened state" of alert.
I was amazed that anyone listened to that fear-mongering, let alone echoed it.
Geoff
Nate, Obama has been encouraging early voting. To the extent that this effort is successful, what impact do you think it will have on the exit polls on November 4th?
moondancer said...
All the blue ink spreading on the EV map is excellent news for McPOW Nitwits. You are in a target rich environment.
Just look at it this way. the spreading blue is just opening so many more avenues for attack :)
Are any states already voting? (please say Virginia is!)
Obama is now looking pretty safe for Kerry-NH+IA+NM+CO+VA.
What's that, 288? If that number is right then he could lose Wisconsin, Minnesota or Michigan and still win...not Pennsylvania though, he'd need any other state then.
So with the following all going Rep
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Nevada
Indiana
Missouri
he can still stand to lose a state and win. And he leads in some of those and is only slightly back in the others...
Hey, he-dumbass, I can't find any mention of those Survey USA polls you mentioned anywhere. Not on their website, not in any news stories. Maybe you hallucinated them?
I agree with Luke....FL for a Democrat...that would be a pretty amazing feat....however do keep in mind that the Republicans candidate no longer has a brother to help steal votes (everyone knows Gore won the state in 2000)
If McCain dumps Palin, he could replace her with Paulson. The Democrats will have trouble criticizing him after voting for his bailout, and McCain would look like a maverick for defying his party. Still probably not a good idea for him now, but come Thursday night...
Any of you poll geeks heard of somebody named Jim Kain from Florida?
He is a well known pollster apparently.
On the newshour tonight their focus was florida and Jim Kain was interviewed as the resident pollster and he said "Id have to give it to Obama", for FL.
inkstain,
Does the RNC have the option to stop spending money??? I thought McCain basically was at the head of the party?
After ther performance of the Republican Congress today I can see where you're coming from. They basically voted in their self interests and not in McCain's.
@He: can you at least learn to spell your own candidate's name right?
Did You know that ALL religions teach Love God/Love one another??? Do You think He would command this if we were gonna do it for the heck of it??? Now is the time for all You folks that were not diseased as a child with the scourge of racism need to stand-up and fight!fight!fight! This trumps the economy on the #1 problem in the U.S... If You don't want a "melting pot", then move to a foreign country(not that they would want You, either!!!)
~Special council for the Trees...
PA John said...
The only way Obama loses PA now is if he punches Joe Paterno, pees on the Liberty Bell, and shows up at a Steelers games wearing a Cleveland Browns jersey.
------------
Brilliant! (/Guiness Guys)
As several people have noted, the trend adjustment is having a large effect right now. The momentum it is assuming does not seem intuitive
without further positive Obama or negative McCain news (could be true if public sees today's mess as McCain/republicans fault.)
All that said, I wonder if the trend analysis uses a model of the size of the swing vote in each state (and the size of each party's
base per state). As mentioned earlier, it should be harder to get those last swing votes than the early ones.
VA has early voting and it started last week.
Jeremy, Paulson is a democrat I believe.
"Does the RNC have the option to stop spending money??? I thought McCain basically was at the head of the party?"
Nope, the candidate isn't necessarily the head of the committee. And if the RNC feels like McCain is a lost cause, they'll choose to spend their money on congressional candidates in close races. They won't completely abandon McCain, but they''ll cut back significantly.
Would anyone please explain how someone who is in such support of a candidate, so much in fact that they get on here and troll around, cannot even spell the candidates name correctly? For the last time HE, it's Palin, not Pallen or Palen. God you are so freakin stupid...however amusing at the same time I must confess.
I don't believe Obama will win Florida and Ohio because of electronic voting machine issues.
Based on the recent polls, despite all the shenanigans by the McCain campaign and the economy, Colorado is still close. That speaks volumes, and Obama cannot take that state for granted.
My prediction: Obama will win Kerry states + NM + IA + VA + NC + IN - NH. Add 1 EV from Ohama, NE and subtract 1 EV from Rural ME.
Total Count: 299 to 239 Obama victory.
I wonder what Obama's $numbers$ look like this month.
PA John,
that made me laugh ;)
regarding Palin's convention speech versus the upcoming debate
She had a teleprompter at the convention. She won't have one at the debate.
No matter how much they prep her, she cannot learn enough. Anyone who can't name more than one SC case cannot learn enough in a couple of weeks. There is no way to prepare her for all the possible questions.
But, even if she did fine it won't matter. 1)She has already been defined and that is very hard to change. 2)Highly unusual for a veep debate to change the election. Has it ever?
Regarding FL - remember the hundreds of thousands of African American voters here who did not vote in 2004 (and young voters, as well). And then add to that new registrants, and there are many.
As someone who has tried to register black voters here, only to find most of those who passed by already registered, and very, very energized, Florida may not be at all out of reach for Obama.
Quite possibly the most cocksure analysis Nate's ever given. I don't know what he's basing it on, but he's been proven right more than once in the past.
Personally, I think this has been a disastrous polling day for Obama. He's only 50% in three national trackers, and. The fact he's had a serious jump on Intade and is only at 330 on the 538 electoral map is worrisome. I'd sleep more easily if he was at 400.
And those state polls. Disappointing. I'm now concerned that Obama hasn't closed the deal.
I'll begin to believe the finish line is in sight when Obama has a 95% chance of victory. But McCain still has a 5% chance, also. Fingers crossed.
YES! It's so soothing seeing the northeast and midwest all in blue. One state at a time the blue is extinguishing the red.
PA John said...
The only way Obama loses PA now is if he punches Joe Paterno, pees on the Liberty Bell, and shows up at a Steelers games wearing a Cleveland Browns jersey.
Or an Iggles game wearing a Cowboys jersey.
"I wonder what Obama's $numbers$ look like this month."
+$5 because of me, my first donation ever.
If McCain change Palin, he´ll lost the election.
No time to change.
@ He:
It's a crime to impersonate a marine ;)
For the last time HE, it's Palin, not Pallen or Palen. God you are so freakin stupid...however amusing at the same time I must confess.
He also seems to have cited polls that only exist in his own fevered imagination.
Thanks Vanessa
I don't think Paulson is a dem. His first job was for Nixon administration.
Can't help liking the guy a bit though - I think its because he's about the only guy in the White House who seems to genuinely want to fix things (however imperfect his solutions maybe)
hahaha did you mail it in???
No CC's right?
I've given so much.
a little off topic but i'm kind of sick of coming to this site and always seeing that same sensationalist 'who is more likely to cheat' banner. one of those 'google feedback ads'... but all the same, i don't think i've seen that ad anywhere else. anyone else with me on this? it seems a little inappropriate for the thoughtfulness of the site and, i'd like to imagine, those who visit it...
Becky Sharp, yes Virginia is already voting. John McCain's campaign sent me an absentee ballot for some reason, and I intend to use it to vote for Obama/Biden.
Congrats Inkstain! I myself am to broke after 8 yrs of Bush... (kidding, of course, however in the near furture........)
ben,
do NOT use the absentee ballot to vote for Obama/Biden.
It's quite likely a fake ballot that will be disqualified.
Regardless whether Obama wins FL or not, he's now essentially tied there. That, in itself, is something big. McCain faces a tough choice. Does he heavily invest in the half dozen media markets here, spending massive amounts of cash/resources defending FL that could be spent elsewhere? Or does McCain roll the dice, stand pat, and 'hope' all these polls are false...
Ball is in YOUR court, McCain.
Oh, and as a Philadelphia area native, I hope today's Pennsylvania polls can help begin to convince Nate of the grave error he has made in including PA in "Rust Belt" rather than "Acela Corridor." Harumph!
(Of course, in seriousness, the fact that the Philly area is "Acela Corridor" and much of the rest of the state really is "Rust Belt" explains precisely why PA is so much harder than other mid-Atlantic states but, in the end, bluer than Ohio or even Michigan.)
So what outcome(s) corresponds to the really high spike around 345? I've been trying to figure it out, but can't tell exactly how many electoral votes that is.
Luke C. --
At this point, Obama doesn't need to carry FL or OH to win. it's pretty clear that he can count on Kerry + NM + IA + CO + VA. NV, NC & IN are other possibles, although based on Nate's calculations NC & IN are less likely than OH.
If McCain was running his campaign in a rational manner, he'd be pressed to find a way to defend on so many fronts. However, McCain isn't even doing that, just looking for quick fixes that will win him the momentum. Sorta like Hannibal against Rome in the Second Punic War: he can win battles, but he's losing the war.
Geoff
I have to guess McCain's incoming $$$s are flagging. Their bubble has burst.
"Becky Sharp, yes Virginia is already voting. John McCain's campaign sent me an absentee ballot for some reason, and I intend to use it to vote for Obama/Biden."
Please check the legitimacy of the ballot though!!!
@Burt
Yeah I know...did you hear that HE is coming out with a new poll in a couple of mins? National Poll: McHero 75% Hussien 15%...wow can you believe it....he is like one of the best pollsters around!
sdf said....
Or an Iggles game wearing a Cowboys jersey.
....or a Giants jersey, or a Redskins jersey, or dressed like Rich Kotite or Santa Claus
becky,
McCain got a check for 84 Mill a couple weeks ago. He's not relying on Fundraising.
How did today's Rasmussen/FOX News state polls look like last he polled them?
ben,
Don't use that ballot.
Use a real ballot. McCain's is probably false.
sdf, Michigan is more blue than Pennsylvania.
Rural counties of Michigan are less conservative than rural PA counties.
You can see that in the 2004 election.
If Obama is +8 in Pa, he´s +12 in MI.
To vote absentee/early in Virginia, you have to request a ballot. If you received one without asking for it, it's fake. Anyone who has been sent such a ballot should let their local Board of Elections know.
Yeah I know...did you hear that HE is coming out with a new poll in a couple of mins? National Poll: McHero 75% Hussien 15%...wow can you believe it....he is like one of the best pollsters around!
Change HE can believe in.
becky,
McCain got a check for 84 Mill a couple weeks ago. He's not relying on Fundraising.
he's been raising lots for the RNC so they can spend it with him.
"No CC's right?"
I keep a prepaid debit card for internet purchases.
I'm such a cheapstake, I'd *never* do it if I wasn't sure of victory.
Ohio has a one week window of same day voting, where you can register and then vote absentee in one stop. Registration deadline is 10/6.
I haven't seen much of an organizational presence here in Cincinnati. That doesn't mean there isn't one, just that I haven't noticed it.
That said, the gotv effort is so much stronger than 2000 and 2004; I have to believe that enthusiasm for Obama makes 2008 much stronger than those other elections that were extremely close.
Question...doesn't Rasmussen have an R lean...and if the poll is conducted with FOX News shouldn't it have an even bigger R lean...so should I be excited that the FL tie poll conducted by them is possibly a bigger O lead?
being conducted with Fox means nothing.
@Justin
I would say wait for other polling. It is likely Obama is slightly ahead in both states, but only by 1-2%.
OHIO - LEAN DEM ???
Oh get real. A 20-day old poll is still the highest weighted?
It's clearly a toss-up... move it.
FOX news just put their name to it
You just got quoted on CNN by Anderson Cooper, Nate. Congrats!
Electicker 2008
Anderson Cooper just cited Nate Silver's analysis from earlier today re. swing district votes.
Paulson has donated to candidates in both parties. Not unusual for someone high up in the corporate world.
"Paulson was a generous Republican contributor and prodigious Bush fundraiser (over $100,000) in the 2004 cycle..."
Novak
I'd guess he is more Republican than Democrat:
Paulson was Staff Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of Defense at The Pentagon from 1970 to 1972. He then worked for the administration of U.S. President Richard Nixon, serving as assistant to John Ehrlichman from 1972 to 1973.
"doesn't Rasmussen have an R lean..."
Yes.
"and if the poll is conducted with FOX News shouldn't it have an even bigger R lean..."
No. The person paying for the poll has nothing to do with it.
Rasmussen doesn't have a Repubican bias because of their personal feelings. It's just that all methodologies have a tendency to favor someone, and theirs happen to favor McCain more than other pollsters'.
"so should I be excited that the FL tie poll conducted by them is possibly a bigger O lead?""
Yes. FL tied means O+2 from a normal pollster.
"doesn't Rasmussen have an R lean..."
Yes.
"and if the poll is conducted with FOX News shouldn't it have an even bigger R lean..."
No. The person paying for the poll has nothing to do with it.
Rasmussen doesn't have a Repubican bias because of their personal feelings. It's just that all methodologies have a tendency to favor someone, and theirs happen to favor McCain more than other pollsters'.
"so should I be excited that the FL tie poll conducted by them is possibly a bigger O lead?""
Yes. FL tied means O+2 from a normal pollster.
What does it say when the most coherent pro-McCain poster can't even spell his own VP candidate's name correctly?
At this point it seems that all the McCain campaign has left is the politics of name-calling and innuendo, and its support is reduced to people who buy that kind of Politics-As-Pro-Wrestling level of "debate". Sadly, there are a lot of such people. Happily, not enough for McCain to win the election.
Ben,
Interesting how the McCain campaign sent you an absentee ballot. Is this the first operation of a massive voter disenfranchisement campaign by the Republicans?
Hmmm, I wish someone could do some statistical analysis on how much voter disenfranchisement could affect the final tally? In a close race, it might put McCain ahead.
I Hope the Obama campaign and democrats are on top of this!
Stay tuned! The shenanigans continue...
@DaWolf
That's what I was thinking in the back of my head, around a +1.5, 3 max...however if I lived in a world as unrealistic as HE I would proclaim that it would actually translate into an O+19
Is it just me or are the press pissed at McCain?
I have to be honest and say for the first time in years I see a pro democrat slant in the MSM
Paul - What was the quote?
It's not a crime to impersonate a Marine, but it can be hazardous to one's health -- unless it is done plausibly.
Do us all a favor, "He", & go impersonate a SEAL. They *really* like people who do that.
Geoff
SurveyUSA poles tonight from swing states of PA and VA:
PA
Hussein 48
HeroMcCain 46
VA
Hussein 44
HeroMcCain 48
Sorry, libtardos, but VA will never vote for a Muslim comunist and Sarah Pallen is a hit with women.
Why do ugly lib females hate Sarah Pallen? Are libs just jealous babbies? Yes, they are.
MARINE SOLDIERS AND WAR HEROES FOR MCCAIN!
SAY NO TO HUSSEIN OBAMA!
SIMPER FI
You have failed in so many different ways.
Only idiots think Obama is a Muslim. Both campaigns acknowledge that he isn't.
And you spelled polls wrong.
Burt,
Anderson cited Nate and discussed how mmembers in swing districts voted largely against the proposal
@Becky
Yeah I think the Media is kinda POed at McCain...I think it has to do with the McCain camp trying to shield Palin from the press...and also just because McCain has abandoned his Independent(ness) that he once held.
I guess Field Polls are accurate, right?
I just read that a recent (September) Field poll of Proposition 4 in California has favored of 49%, unfavored at 41%, and undecided 10%. This is the proposition requiring parental notification before a minor has an abortion.
This thing has been on the ballot 2 other times since 2005 and went down both times. (In 2006, it lost by a pretty large margin.) Now it looks like it has a good chance of passing. :( Hispanics will be turning out to vote in larger numbers in this election, and it looks like that is the overwhelming "favored" voter group.
Dario, perhaps. The percentages were pretty even between the two states in 2004, but you may know more than I about the current state of things, and you're right, MI has been polling better in the last week or so, although these two PA polls today are very good.
Mark
"What is the matter with Ohio?"
I've lived in Ohio since 1990 and I kind of understand why some folks here are against Obama. Or they just still not sure about him. But on the bright side I took a trip down southern ohio and I have seen as many Obama yard signs as McCain yard signs, actally I saw 3 Obama signs before I saw one McCain so that is a good thing, not all farmers are ignorants.
@ Jonathan,
It is kind of disappointing that she could not name another Supreme Court case other than Roe V. Wade.
Sounds so much like GW 2000.
Pretty sure that commenter HE is in my fantasy football league. Le sigh.
Quick feedback...who on here thinks prop 8 will pass in CA?
>>It is kind of disappointing that she could not name another Supreme Court case other than Roe V. Wade.
Is this just a rumor - or is it on tape?
SurveyUSA poles tonight from swing states of PA and VA:
PA
Hussein 48
HeroMcCain 46
VA
Hussein 44
HeroMcCain 48
Sorry, libtardos, but VA will never vote for a Muslim comunist and Sarah Pallen is a hit with women.
Why do ugly lib females hate Sarah Pallen? Are libs just jealous babbies? Yes, they are.
MARINE SOLDIERS AND WAR HEROES FOR MCCAIN!
SAY NO TO HUSSEIN OBAMA!
SIMPER FI
You have failed in so many different ways.
Only idiots think Obama is a Muslim. Both campaigns acknowledge that he isn't.
And you spelled polls wrong.
He also spell communist wrong, what an idiot. Btw 101st Airborne Division will kick your marine ass anytime He!!!!
Reality is going against McCain, not the press.
You can't suspend your campaign but not really, not show up at the debate but not really, fall way behind in the polls and expect positive coverage.
Two things: First--Someone talk me down over my anxiety seeing VA and CO actually TIGHTEN since late last week on Ras.... Why is that happening??
Second--Each time that I think McCain and company can't get more ludicrous and beyond belief, they take my breath away with an even more audacious attack on reality and reason. Is anyone else flabbergasted by the story (at least the way it is told on the CNN ticker) that McCain is attacking Obama as "out of touch" because Obama's prepared comments presumed that the bailout bill passed. Excuse me, but weren't both candidates and the leadership in both houses under the working impression that they had a deal, and that the bill would pass?
If anyone should be outraged, it is the Dems, who put there asses on the line on the basis of a promise that the Reps would deliver "aye" votes from half their caucus, and then completely welched on that promise.
God, I hope the public gets that point, and sees the Reps for the duplicitous vermin that they are....
"Interesting how the McCain campaign sent you an absentee ballot. Is this the first operation of a massive voter disenfranchisement campaign by the Republicans?"
I got an absentee ballot from McCain as well, and I don't live in VA (though I do live a in a semi-swing state). However, I've been regularly getting campaign spam in the mail from Republican candidates at all levels (why they have me painted as a potential R voter, I'll never know). Based on that I didn't think it was something nefarious, just poorly-targeted.
Ben said...
Becky Sharp, yes Virginia is already voting. John McCain's campaign sent me an absentee ballot for some reason, and I intend to use it to vote for Obama/Biden.
------------
DON'T!!!!!!!!!!!!
They have been sending fake ballots to Dem districts.
Becky, If the MSM is angry with McCain, it is his own doing. His latest achievement is today's interview they had with Couric today where they accused her of "gotcha journalism". Sheesh, all she did was ask questions, & keep a straight face while Palin made a fool of herself.
I expect Steve Schmidt, if he has any hope to stay in the business, to resign any day now. Or if he wants to keep hsi sanity.
Geoff
"Two things: First--Someone talk me down over my anxiety seeing VA and CO actually TIGHTEN since late last week on Ras.... Why is that happening??"
Because you are looking at individual polls. You can't interpret anything from a couple points one way or the other in individual polls, that's what MOEs tell you.
Becky -- the portion of the Couric interview that has not aired is the one where Palin cannot name another Supreme Court case. Apparently instead of babbling she just goes silent. What is not clear is why they have not aired it -- waiting for the debate, perhaps?
And why did McCain appear with Palin tonight so he could try to talk around her latest faux pas? She can't be trusted to even explain her own remarks?
schieff,
It's a bad ballot ok.
A bad ballot!!!
They send them to democratic districts.
Take it from an old Wall Street guy: Nothing moves in a straight line. Even today, when the markets were getting killed, there were ups and downs intraday.
The trend is your friend, as they say, and this trend is moving very much in Obama's direction.
Yeah, of course it could go the other way. I've been watching the numbers very closely ever since McCain picked Palin, which to me was a shocking decision that turned me from "interested" to "obsessed." Nate, I was earlier than you were on the mid-September turnaround in Obama's numbers. Until today, I was thinking that there'd possibly be another pendulum shift between now and the election.
Given what's just happened in the news, I doubt very much doubt that. I think McCain is finished. Stick a fork in the old man, he's done. The question now, at least to me, is how big Obama's margin will be.
Part of it will hinge on whether Obama twists the knife. There is some really low-hanging fruit out there that he could grab and pad his margin (which I now think is at a base level of 52%-45%-3%) by a couple points, with more available. Knowing Obama, he won't do it, but if he'd bang away on McCain's erratic contradictions, he could make significant gains.
Another part will depend on what McCain does. It sure looks to me like he's losing his marbles, and will continue to act in a strange and erratic fashion. Today's taking of credit for the bailout bill that didn't pass, plus the attempt to blame Obama for the defeat, comes across as some combination of eccentricity and panic.
That could be worth another couple of points, and maybe quite a bit more if events wind up putting the focus on McCain's crisis-handling ability. To me, it is close to a foregone conclusion that Obama will win. Now I wonder: Will events, a decision by Obama's to tighten the python, and McCain's innate craziness, turn this into a landslide both popular and electoral?
If things work out, I could imagine Obama getting 55% of the vote, and the Democrats beating the 60 mark in the Senate. It would take a ratcheting up of the Democratic campaigns, plus continued cooperation of events and Republican panic, but it's not out of realm of possibility.
The state-level polls will catch up. And, as you know, Rasmussen is Republican-leaning, by virtue of its likely-voter methodology. My gut says Obama is in the process of running away with it, but of course as a Democrat my lizard brain can't really bring itself to be optimistic.
So how about this: "Things are looking pretty good."
@realistxxx
If this is true, I want to know why this hasn't been shown on the media. Frankly after the past two elections and signs of voter fraud, I believe the public would be outraged. It's obvious that the public is tired of partisan politics and dirty tricks.
"He" is screwing with you. He's an Obama voter, pissing around on the internet. Marines know how to spell "semper fi", spelling it "simper" is humor.
Seriously, folks, grow a parody detector.
Ben said...
Becky Sharp, yes Virginia is already voting. John McCain's campaign sent me an absentee ballot for some reason, and I intend to use it to vote for Obama/Biden.
Ben if you use that ballot make sure its legal and its addressed to the right place. there have been reports of The reps sending out ballot papers with the wrong addresses on them to make sure the vote never gets to the right place. Be safe, check it out, and be sure your vote gets to the right place and is valid when it gets there.
I live in Seattle. Today I saw something I hadn't before - a McCain/Palin bumper sticker. You can't throw a brick around here without hitting an Obama yard sign or bumper sticker.
I'm wondering what percentage McCain vs. Obama bumper stickers/signs are in battleground states?
soozie - thanks
wow so there is more to the interview yet...
what's the verdict on McCain/Palin vs Couric? Anyone seen it?
Actually, I should correct myself. It was an absentee ballot REQUEST form, not the actual ballot itself.
However, in my state you have to have an actual reason to vote absentee (gone on election day, ill, etc.), so it did strike me as a little shady for the McCain campaign to mass-mailing them. And the one time I voted absentee locally, they DID ask me why at the county clerk's office.
83%, even in the current political climate, just seems incredible. I was heartened by 80%, but now I'm worried.
Maybe McCain should release that ad showing that he won the debate. Such a shame to let such an attractive ad go to waste....
"Ben said...
Becky Sharp, yes Virginia is already voting. John McCain's campaign sent me an absentee ballot for some reason, and I intend to use it to vote for Obama/Biden.
------------
DON'T!!!!!!!!!!!!
They have been sending fake ballots to Dem districts."
IS THAT TRUE???
why isn't this in the news?
If this is true this is INSANE
Good numbers for Obama. Things are looking really good here.
The Not so Great, Debate.
Small Goverment and the Bailout?!?
Actually, I should correct myself. It was an absentee ballot REQUEST form, not the actual ballot itself.
However, in my state you have to have an actual reason to vote absentee (gone on election day, ill, etc.), so it did strike me as a little shady for the McCain campaign to mass-mailing them. And the one time I voted absentee locally, they DID ask me why at the county clerk's office.
I have recieved one of those from the Sedgwick County Election Commission. I live in Kansas...you can get a pre-election day mail in ballot. All it basically asks for is if you want a mail-in ballot or not. No excuses needed, just another way for idiot R's here to check the boxes that have R's next to them so they can be lazy and sit and continue watching Fox News.
Hey Nate, can you please tell us why you're confident that Obama will win Ohio? Most of the polls have given McCain a lead.
Thanks!
No mention of Obama getting up to a solid 51%? :-(
McCain/Palin vs. Couric
http://gothamist.com/2008/09/29/mccain_palin_explain_pakistan_remar.php
watching it now!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
V I R G I N I A
E L E C T I O N
F R A U D
I N F O
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If you feel your voting rights have been violated or that you may have witnessed an election law being broken, contact the State Board of Elections at 1-800-552-9745, or via e-mail at info@sbe.virginia.gov.
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Voter_Information/Voter_Rights_Responsibilities.html#How%20to%20report%20violations
"83%, even in the current political climate, just seems incredible. I was heartened by 80%, but now I'm worried."
Remember how all of those pundits kept saying, 'Obama should be ahead by a lot and he's a failed candidate because it's still close.'
Remember that? Well, now Obama is ahead by a lot. Now we just have to work hard to keep him there.
rightchange.com
really? thats a 527 ad? pathetic. wow Reps really have lost their A game
McCain/Palin vs. Couric
Actually she did OK. McCain however was shockingly sexist in the way he continually and patronisingly spoke on her behalf
IS THAT TRUE???
why isn't this in the news?
If this is true this is INSANE
Well, if someone is clueless enough to fill out an absentee ballot that they received without having specifically requested it, and it ends up disenfranchises them, its hard to feel sorry for them.
I discuss Sarah Palin's ignorance of Supreme Court history on my blog, Heartless and Brainless. She couldn't even name the Bong Hits 4 Jesus case. That was based in Alaska!
"83%, even in the current political climate, just seems incredible. I was heartened by 80%, but now I'm worried."
Remember how all of those pundits kept saying, 'Obama should be ahead by a lot and he's a failed candidate because it's still close.'
Remember that? Well, now Obama is ahead by a lot. Now we just have to work hard to keep him there.
Indeed...if Obama taking a rightful lead has made you uneasy, then the MSM's attempt to brainwash you into thinking the race should b e close has been successful.
If the MSM was honest, Hillary would have conceded the primary season much sooner, since it was more or less over after the Wisconsin primary.
I've read reports of posters being up in VA college areas that told students they can't vote if they have parking tickets... can anyone confirm this?
I think people are so upset by what the 527's let them do in 04 I'm not sure if they will have the same effect.
New Zogby Interactive poll:
Illinois:
Barack Obama: 39
John McCain: 21
The Joker: 35
Zogby says, "Illinois was once percieved to be a lock for Obama has been busted wide open as a result of the candidacy of The Joker taking off at the last moment. Once dismissed as a fringe candidate The Joker has suddenly shot up in the polls. While his campaign ads have been criticized by fact-checking groups as "misleading" specifically two biographical ads which contradict with each other on how The Joker got scars on his face (the first one claims he his scars were a result of his abusive father cutting his face open and the other one says they happened when Joker decided to cut his face using blades to make his wife feel better), the joker campaign has responded to these criticisms and insensitive attacks by the main stream media, our polling shows that these two ads have been widely successful; the first one is huge hit among white men age 25-37.5 whereas the second one has incresead Joker's favourables from 14% to 48% among married women, a key swing group. Our polling also shows Joker's foreign policy proposals like showing the "pencil trick" to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has alot of support among the electorate. Our poling also finds that The Joker's proposal of "Weekly Crime Sunday" where the whole country will be free to comit any crime they want on sundays without any repercussions has the support of 53% of voters. The Joker is encouraging the current chaos on Wall Street and promises to honor anyone who would fuel this financial chaos has monolithic support among CEO's (among whom Joker now leads by 73 points) those making more then $500,000 (among whom Joker leads by 43 points and Republicans( among whom The Joker now amazingly gets 45% of support compared to McCain's 43% and 10% undecided), 12 house republicans who blocked today's bailout deal have been accused by critics as pandering to The Joker. The republicans however dismissed such allegations as outrageous attacks by the liberal media. In such a close election these creative proposal could swing the state towards The Joker."
alyssa,
Not true.
McCain/Palin vs. Couric
Yeah, she did okay, HE looked idiotic, not just sexist. Can you imagine any other candidate talking over his/her running mate that way? As someone said about the trip to the UN -- it looked like take your daughter to work day. So Palin got beat up by the mean ole Katie Couric last week, and now daddy McCain has to get in there and set her straight.
And what's with the Couric fixation? Obama did O'Reilly. I want to see either of them on the Newshour with Margaret Warner! (Gwen was my fantasy pick to the VP debate from the get-go!)
About all the absentee ballots - from my experience (in a different state, though) absentee ballots are sent directly FROM THE STATE/COUNTY to the voter. Having absentee ballots for a certain voter distributed through a political party would be about a dozen different kinds of fraud. Check with your county registrar or (preferably) just go to do in-person early voting, if it's available.
soozzie what is gwen ifill like in debates?
Thanks Vanessa. Do you live in VA?
A lot of my friends have been saying for months that Obama could not win - that the repubs would use every dirty trick in the book including racism.
I'm not ready to tell them told you so just yet - but it is heartening that Obama could be this far ahead, so close to the finish line.
There is something good about this country
Burt:
Paul - What was the quote?
I regret that I don't have a direct quote, but Anderson Cooper said something to the effect of "blogger Nate Silver" saying that who voted no on the bailout bill correlated well with who was up for re-election in November.
Electicker 2008
I'd love to hear some thoughts about how much the decline in Palin's approval numbers has to do with such mainstream coverage of SNL's spoofs of Palin making her out to be a complete idiot.
Becky,
We haven't nearly seen the worst of it. I'd hold your tongue until the election is over.
Look. 3 people on this post are likely to have received fake ballots.
Think about that.
Have you seen the New Yorker cover? A NEW CLASSIC!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/29/new-yorker-cover-mocks-pa_n_130423.html
So much for the pitbull.. she needs her hand held. It's just pitiful now. Almost not even fun to make fun anymore. Almost.
"ben,
Don't use that ballot.
Use a real ballot. McCain's is probably false."
Is anybody warning the voters about this?
Inkstain said:
"I'm such a cheapstake, I'd *never* do it if I wasn't sure of victory."
Huh? Why donate if it is in the bag? Are you looking to be the ambassador to Brazil? I donated some too. I want to be the ambassador to Greece or Turkey.
I understand not donating to a lost cause, but isn't a sure thing the same only backwards?
I'd love to hear some thoughts about how much the decline in Palin's approval numbers has to do with such mainstream coverage of SNL's spoofs of Palin making her out to be a complete idiot.
The problem is that the least coherent, and most idiotic moments in that skit was verbatim Palin answers.
I'm not sure I've seen Gwen Ifill in a formal debate, but she moderates Washington Week, and of course, does a lot on the Newshour. Very smart, extremely knowledgeable, calm, and a bit more confrontational than Jim Lehrer when people stray or avoid questions.
I have to say that the best video in the Couric interviews is of Couric, who does manage to keep a straight face as Palin's word salads are tossed.
I am surprised that Ohio is shown as blue on your map, and North Carolina is shown in red. The recent polls suggest the opposite. Is this due simply to the substantial weight of older polls in your analysis, or is something more interesting going on?
"I understand not donating to a lost cause, but isn't a sure thing the same only backwards?"
The bandwagon effect. People (including me) get emotional utility from feeling like a "part" of the winning team.
Same reason I want the Cubs to win this year even though I did nothing to help them.
Palin said something stupid yet again....GOTCHA JOURNALISM!!! That's all it was. Anyone else watching AC360?
inkstain,
In how much trouble are Republican Congressional seats?
In otherwords at what point could they possibly give up on McCain?
justin said...
I'd love to hear some thoughts about how much the decline in Palin's approval numbers has to do with such mainstream coverage of Palin making herSELF out to be a complete idiot.
Fixed.
Virginia's had several very sketchy instances of voter suppression in the last month - the aforementioned fake absentee ballots and various shenigans regarding college students (students at VT were told they couldn't register to vote at their school address if their parents claimed them as dependents; couldn't vote if they had unpaid tickets; would lose scholarships for voting in VA...). Fortunately, we have a democratic govern who is very on top of these things and a State Board of Elections that is doing a lot to get out the right information.
Alyssa, what do you mean?
Guys n gals, I live in VA and have received two of these. One from McCain and the other from the GOP. But what I got were Absentee Ballot Requests. They were not the absentee ballots.
@Kelly
Of course Virginia has had sketchy instances of voter suppresion. The GOP hates to loose, yet alone loose a state that didn't even go for LBJ in 64 (Hell my state KS went Democratic in 64)
Hey, Inkstain -- I'm retired, and not on a fixed income -- I got NO income, and I gave Obama $1000, and he'll probably get another $500 before the end of the day tomorrow. And I'll feel it. It's time to pony up. Think how you'll feel if he loses for lack of one last ad or campaign worker in some little hamlet in Florida. Give until it hurts, give until you can't. It's time!
"In how much trouble are Republican Congressional seats?"
They are going to lose ground, it's just a matter of how much.
I don't know if and when they'd give up on McCain. Probably not for at least 2-3 more weeks.
"Hey, Inkstain -- I'm retired, and not on a fixed income -- I got NO income, and I gave Obama $1000, and he'll probably get another $500 before the end of the day tomorrow. And I'll feel it. It's time to pony up. Think how you'll feel if he loses for lack of one last ad or campaign worker in some little hamlet in Florida. Give until it hurts, give until you can't. It's time!"
Screw that. I want Obama to win, but if McCain paid me $1500 for my vote I'd even put up a yard sign and risk getting fired.
Nate-
Have you verified that the Fox/Rasmussen polls use the same methodology as the standard Rasmussen polls? The reason I mention it is that the trends from the last Fox poll (which are listed in the table posted at Rasmussen) are all in Obama's direction. However, a few of them trend slightly away from Obama from Ras's last poll (or basically just MOE changes). If they don't use the same methodology, shouldn't you keep track of them separately so that the trends analyze properly?
I'd love to hear some thoughts about how much the decline in Palin's approval numbers has to do with such mainstream coverage of SNL's spoofs of Palin making her out to be a complete idiot.
You do know that much of the second SNL Palin sketch simply quoted Palin word-for-word, right?
Soozie - New Yorker cover is excellent. A self parody too!
I just mean she's an idiot. It's her own doing for the position she's in.
SNL prob had little to do with her tanking, they just brought to light what everyone already knew/was thinking.
One last post before this forum goes to the "hidden pages"
Katie, I'd like to use a life-line
--Uh, excuse me?--
I'd like to phone a friend
@Justin
Yeah, but fortunately the Virginia GOP has been in self-destruct mode for several years now (Macaca, purging moderates, the return of Gilmore, etc.), so attempts at voter suppression so far have been really incompetent and they are being caught early enough to be rectified.
justin you can click on "post a comment" you should get a pop up box. Click on Newest on the top right hand corner and you can view all the comments and continue to post.
what I can never figure out is: everyone most have to hit post a comment to post
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