Barack Obama had another strong day in the national tracking polls, increasing his advantage in the Rasmussen Tracker to +6, and in the Gallup Tracker to +5. Indeed, four of the five tracking polls are now in agreement that Barack Obama's lead is in the 5-6 point range, with Battleground dissenting and putting the race at McCain +2.
You should bear in mind, however, that these polls reflect the pre-debate state of the race, as the overwhelming majority of the interviews for the these tracking polls took place before last night's debate was completed. A variety of reactions to the debate seem possible to me, including (in rough order of probability): i) a small gain for Obama; ii) no effective change; iii) a larger gain for Obama; (iv) a small gain for McCain. The reaction in the horse race polls in the days following the debate do not always match the overnight flash polls, as opinions about the debate may change once filtered through the lens of the media. However, since Obama won or tied essentially all objective evaluations of public opinion about the debate, material gains for McCain appear unlikely.
At the state level, we have a relatively uneventful day:
The only poll that really stands out is ARG's McCain +3 in Colorado. Since (i) a lot of good pollsters were in the field last week in Colorado and showed Obama with a decent-sized lead, and (ii) ARG is not a good pollster, this does not really affect our model's opinion that Colorado leans fairly strongly toward Obama. Otherwise, Iowa looks good for Obama ... Missouri is going to be tough for him, even if he has a good night overall ... these are things that we knew already.
Obama, however, did tick upward a couple of points in our win percentage estimate, and is now given a 78.5 percent chance of winning the election. Our more eagle-eyed observers may notice that this improvement occurred even as our popular vote projection barely changed. There are two reasons to explain the discrepancy: (1) Obama got a comparatively "bad" polling result in California (+10 from SurveyUSA), and California has a fairly substantial effect on the popular vote but almost none on the electoral college, and (2) We are now close enough to the election where every day that goes by without McCain making gains in the polls makes him marginally less likely to win. So Obama's win percentage will be ticking up by perhaps half a point a day based on inertia alone.
9.27.2008
Today's Polls, 9/27
@ 7:19 PM
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Nate, may I say while I appreciate that you have every right to make a living, some of your advertisers cross the line imo. The ad from I believe SodaHead asking which candidate is more likely to cheat on his wife, I hope no one is clicking crap like that.
On the other hand, the RNC offering to register people to vote is fine. It is funny that the two times I clicked it out of suspicion of their motives the link failed.
McCain at 42 in Gallup is dangerously close to his floor. He will almost certainly improve in week-end polling, though. If he doesn't break 44 in Gallup on Tuesday it is a Very Bad Sign, indeed.
On Obama's ground game:
The registration efforts for Republicans have been dismal. It's little more than accounting for new voters moving into the districts. The GOP is going to have to face the reality that they have already mustered the vast majority of their "troops" and those numbers aren't favourable.
There simply isn't a vast well of previously untapped Republican voters out there. 2004 got them on the rolls already. This Republican idea of some kind of "Silent Majority" turning out for McCain is a fantasy. The idea of Independents breaking for McCain went out the window when the GOP went with the "base vs. base" strategy after Palin flopped. The Republican base is already as solid as it is likely to get, but McCain is still concentrating on "base appeals".
The Unpredictable Obama
Sub,
I think you are ignoring the fact that Obama is just as hard to predict.
Who would have thought last March that Obama would be the leading cheerleader for a plan that bails out the bad investment decisions of Wall Street to the tune of $700 Billion (after having supported or not opposed (same thing) the shelling out of $300 BB already)?
That’s not the Obama I was seeing during the Primaries.
I can’t predict which Obama will be in the White House.
I can live with that, truth is.
What I can’t live with is having no clue as to his governing principles and the ethic by which he lives.
McCain is so boring, so last millennium: DUTY, HONOR COUNTRY!
I mean, how dated is that!
Does anyone have any decent projections on what the youth vote will consist of? If youth vote is high Obama wins this handily by flipping a number of states. My guess is that no national polling data done takes into account the youth vote because most of us have cell phones which aren't available to pollsters.
Thing about Clinton. I'm sure he's got his reasons for what he's doing. If he came out swinging for Obama and really stuck it to McCain he would come across as another partisan Dem in the tank for Obama. He understands this, and I think Obama understands this also. I haven't put my finger on it yet. I'm sure they are trying to figure out a way for Clinton's celebrity status not to take any attention from Obama. Only very subtle endorsements on the national scene from Clinton, I believe, will have a positive impact for Obama, if any at all.
"McCain is so boring, so last millennium: DUTY, HONOR COUNTRY!"
If that were true, I would consider voting for him. But he ditched all three a long time ago.
Todd:
Ras is reporting a significant decline in Rep support for McCain. He and Obama are equal in this dimension.
I cannot figure out where that is coming from. I wonder if it isn't conservative support that doesn't like the bailout plan. In which case his numbers should stabilize once they get the message that he was instrumental in getting the conservative voice in the House listened to.
Claire: That's just absurd. people do not change so fundamentally.
What I find remarkable about McCain is his authetic humility. At Saddleback he was asked what his biggest moral failure was, and without hesitation he answered, "The failure of my first marriage." I found that very insightful.
Well I'm glad petekent is finally admitting McCain has lost. That's very magnanimous of you, petey.
To a certain extent, the more that Bill Clinton says good things about McCain, the more McCain's base is undermined.
McCain was nominated because he was less associated with the GOP than the other candidates, and thus it was thought that he would have more appeal to moderates and independents. He had a tough fight sewing up his base after the primaries, but Palin turned that around for him. Now he is taking on the GOP with his "maverick-ness", and Bill Clinton is saying nice things about him. That increases suspicion about McCain among the base. Whatever Clinton's motives really are, the end result is that he indirectly helping Obama.
I guess I don't get evangelicals, Romney is as crazy nutball religious as they are. He wears the "underwear"
The heretic is despised more than the infidel.
PA John said...
McCain needs to hope there are more prejudice people in Pennsylvania than most think. If he can flip Pennsylvania due to race, those 21 electoral votes could do it for him.
Jesus - I'm from PA... I wish people would just give this argument up. It IS NOT based in reality!!
good to hear. I'm just basing this on the many polls that have McCain closer than it seems he should be, the media talking of the "T" in Pennsylvania as White Alabama, the McCain camp's laser focus on the state, the fact that Obama underperformed there in the primaries, and the fact that those 21 electoral votes are the only possible offense available to McCain to help stop-loss. kery only won by 1.5%. I don't see any other path for McCain without extreme luck like wnning Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire by a few thousand votes each. Pennsylvania seems like his one hope. It would require a whole bunch of "working-class" whites to not want to vote for the "risky" black guy. I don't think it likely, but I think it's McCain's best cahnce. I'm a huge Obama supporter just looking for potential chinks in the armor.
TAKE A LOOK AT VIRGINIA!!!!!
I expect some serious 527 action coming up that plays up the "he is different than us" angle, i.e. Muslim, not patriotic, funny name.
I think the best thing about the debate is that some people are finally seeing Obama for themselves. He comes off as so pragmatic, calm, and thoughtful that these slurs will have a hard time gaining traction. The more people see and hear Obama, the more they like him. Happened everytime in the Democratic primaries and I expect it to continue to happen in the general.
"McCain is so boring, so last millennium: DUTY, HONOR COUNTRY!"
The reason he is losing is because his "duty and honor" are what he left behind in the last millennium.
"What I find remarkable about McCain is his authetic humility."
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Um, it was just three days ago that he was pretending he and he alone could save the bailout package that he ended up trying to wreck, wasn't it?
Pete, do you actually believe this swill? Good gracious.
Bill Clinton has always proven himself to be a master at understanding the pulse of the American people...because he is a touchy, feely kind of guy. What he is doing is tapping into the disgust the average American has with typical Washington and all of the ugliness from the last 8 years. He recognizes that most people are tired of fights and negativity. He is demonstrably helping Barack Obama look good by making any GOP attacks against Obama look petty and divisive.
Anyone got the daily estimates for Rasmussen and Gallup?
the Clinton parody on SNL last night was hilarious as well. It's up on the site for those that haven't seen it.
If the right wing thinks that rolling out the smear machine at this point in the game is going to change it, I think they're going to be in for a rude awakening. McCain doesn't have a strong enough position for a play like that. He's too unsteady at the moment and smears will not appear authentic - they'll just appear desperate. The electorate is tired of partisanship (at least, in name).
The best thing McCain can do is pray Palin fares well, calm down, and try his best to win (or lose) honorably.
His hail mary on the bailout bill didn't fail because it was harebrained, it failed because people saw right through it. Americans have been fooled by plenty of harebrained schemes before, but there's a significant "Fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice..." mentality from the Bush years. You can't go to the well but so much with that kind of tactic.
I think at this stage McCain's run out of big plays... but the game's not so wide open that he can't win it on a steady drive.
I'm feeling good but am trying not to get overexcited. I grew up an Oakland A's fan, and still see Kirk Gibson in my nightmares.
For those Bill Clinton fans that believe he is honestly telling us how much he "respects" and "admires" John McCain, just remember that McCain voted FOR impeachment during the Senate trial. If you think that has slipped Clinton's mind, I've got a bridge in Alaska that I want to sell to you.
The problem with a successful "smear" machine strategy now is that McCain already tried it, but poorly and unnecessarily. He was called out on it for telling lies and by re-engaging in that (or having surrogates do it) he is playing into the theme that he is willing to abandon his principals to get elected. That has resonance on many levels, such as moving toward Bush in the last 8 years, pushing a reformist myth for a VP candidate (repeatedly lying about being for it before she was against it), and his pandering the the base on his VP pick and shifts on the Bush tax cuts and Roe v. Wade.
I thought Cheney clearly beat Lieberman and Edwards. (And I'm a Democrat!) But you're right, VP debates have never been known to turn elections up to now. But I've also never seen a running-mate choice shake up a race as much as it did this year. That's the problem with trying to make predictions based on past elections: you never know when the current race might be unique.
I said that earlier, but 6-8 is a lot more 2-4 - panties.
Obama went from a 49-44, +5 lead yesterday to a 50-42, +8 lead today. Obama's first post-debate daily yesterday must have been somewhere in the +11 to +14 range. I predict Obama will lead be enjoying his first double digit lead in the national tracker by the time Thursday's debate comes along.
Again, guys. Seriously. You *cannot* parse individual numbers from the polling updates. It's impossible.
What we know:
1) McCain had a very bad week last week, his "hail mary" suspension failed.
2) Every national, scientific poll says Obama won the debate.
3) He didn't do worse in the first night of polling
"But I've also never seen a running-mate choice shake up a race as much as it did this year."
The VP choice did virtually nothing. It just happened to correspond with the convention bounce so it fooled people. The convention bounce faded, and we're right back where we were before it, even a little worse for McCain.
Palin has not helped him. Maybe in fundraising.
The convention bounce was due, in no small part, to Palin's effective speech. Her presence on the ticket generated enthusiasm from the cultural right, while McCain was able to attract independents with his reform message. I would agree, however, that this two-prong strategy is now coming apart at the seams, and the economic disaster has not helped.
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