Barack Obama had another strong day in the national tracking polls, increasing his advantage in the Rasmussen Tracker to +6, and in the Gallup Tracker to +5. Indeed, four of the five tracking polls are now in agreement that Barack Obama's lead is in the 5-6 point range, with Battleground dissenting and putting the race at McCain +2.
You should bear in mind, however, that these polls reflect the pre-debate state of the race, as the overwhelming majority of the interviews for the these tracking polls took place before last night's debate was completed. A variety of reactions to the debate seem possible to me, including (in rough order of probability): i) a small gain for Obama; ii) no effective change; iii) a larger gain for Obama; (iv) a small gain for McCain. The reaction in the horse race polls in the days following the debate do not always match the overnight flash polls, as opinions about the debate may change once filtered through the lens of the media. However, since Obama won or tied essentially all objective evaluations of public opinion about the debate, material gains for McCain appear unlikely.
At the state level, we have a relatively uneventful day:
The only poll that really stands out is ARG's McCain +3 in Colorado. Since (i) a lot of good pollsters were in the field last week in Colorado and showed Obama with a decent-sized lead, and (ii) ARG is not a good pollster, this does not really affect our model's opinion that Colorado leans fairly strongly toward Obama. Otherwise, Iowa looks good for Obama ... Missouri is going to be tough for him, even if he has a good night overall ... these are things that we knew already.
Obama, however, did tick upward a couple of points in our win percentage estimate, and is now given a 78.5 percent chance of winning the election. Our more eagle-eyed observers may notice that this improvement occurred even as our popular vote projection barely changed. There are two reasons to explain the discrepancy: (1) Obama got a comparatively "bad" polling result in California (+10 from SurveyUSA), and California has a fairly substantial effect on the popular vote but almost none on the electoral college, and (2) We are now close enough to the election where every day that goes by without McCain making gains in the polls makes him marginally less likely to win. So Obama's win percentage will be ticking up by perhaps half a point a day based on inertia alone.
9.27.2008
Today's Polls, 9/27
@ 7:19 PM
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837 comments
I've never seen Florida blue.
Nevada is the bluest I have ever seen it...
bummer about colorado polling a +3 for McCain. that's the first one I've seen him in lead there for awhile.
still momentum is going for Obama, and I feel great about his chances.
Florida is blue! We're working hard down here to make that a reality!
And Virginia at 82% Obama !?!
And the Phils clinch!
A good day all in all.
Where is CTPEM? I want him to post what great news this is for the POW.
If Sarah Palin goes on SNL that will humanize her. But since she is already humanized (humbled) I don't think it will affect the polls. It will make it easier for people to laugh at her while they are laughing with her. So I don't think it will help.
Just to be clear, .5 points a day from here in just by inertia means the same polls would have Obama as a 95%+ projection if today was election day?
The Florida result is heartening, despite the lack of faith in ARG. Perhaps young Jewish voters from around the country have been heeding Sarah Silverman's advice and gone to visit their grandparents :)
What are the people at Battleground smoking? What are they doing differently to come up with a consistent McCain lead?
I read somewhere that their party targets have R ahead. Is this true?
I really don't think Obama will win Missouri. I'm inclined, however, to dismiss that Colorado poll until I get more. Obama's had a pretty solid lead so far.
Indiana is looking awfully white, but is that because of the polls more or the general climate? The light blueness of Florida and Ohio is very appealing. It's looking more and more likely that Obama will win at least one of those.
This is looking very, very good. Obama's got several options for winning, and a chance at a very convincing electoral win.
Yeah. If Obama is +6 on every tracker on 11/3, he basically always wins the election.
"Just to be clear, .5 points a day from here in just by inertia means the same polls would have Obama as a 95%+ projection if today was election day?"
That sounds just about right, actually. The national polls are showing an Obama lead just larger than the margin of error, and the margin of error is usually a 95% confidence interval number.
Obama needs to spend alot in the base win states - which still look like Karry plus iowa, colorado, new mexico. That means defense in NH, MI, MN, and offense in CO. Back up scenarios are NC, VA, FL, OH.
Lets win this first, I don't think we are at 78.5% yet. We need a sure win before expand the field.
I don't know when this will translate but a voter like my sister in Ohio was probably just won over by Obama. She judges things on her pocketbook and and who she would like to see on her tv for the next four years. I think Obama smiling and being comfortable got her last night. Or, at least, McCain's angry old man routine lost her.
arnold,
Yes that is correct. Look at election.princeton.edu for confirmation. Based on current polls, Obama would have a 95% or greater chance of winning election today.
From what I understand, Nate is trying to forecast where the polls will go in the future. The closer we get to election day, the more accurate the prediction. Kind of like forecasting the weather.
If ARG is not a good pollster, should we ignore both the McCain +3 in CO and the Obama +1 in FL?
Because only one of these polls is Excellent News for John McCain!
Holy shit Fla is light BLUE!!!
Make me proud home state!! Don't fuck it up again!
Damn, I wish Tim Russert were still around for all of this :(
Site related question: if there are going to be polls every day, with some states getting multiple polls every day, is the entire listing of polls on the right side of the site going to get tremendously large? Or are some of the older polls going to be pruned off?
ozzie said...
If ARG is not a good pollster, should we ignore both the McCain +3 in CO and the Obama +1 in FL?
No, you just weight it accordingly.
Chance of Obama Landslide... 21.8%
Chance of McCain win of any kind... 21.5%
Awesome!
@Ozzie
Nate isn't forecasting the weather but the current climate. BO would win in his simulations 78.5% of the time if the election were held today.
I loved Tim Russert, but his sitting on his hands help get us into Iraq....
"If ARG is not a good pollster, should we ignore both the McCain +3 in CO and the Obama +1 in FL?"
Yes. Unless there's confirmation, I wouldn't be willing to say Obama has a lead in Florida.
However, there have been other polls that have shown the state is at least close.
Can we please get an animation with all the Obama v. McCain Projection maps from the past four months? I think that would be some riveting cinema.
reposted from previous thread (I fixed the spelling too)
I kind of doubt Palin on SNL will help much. Maybe it will reassure some Republican voters who are getting slightly worried about her, but that's all. Even if she kills, are people who are in the Obama column now going to say--"hang on--maybe she's not so stupid--I'm voting for McCain!" It doesn't sound so plausible now, does it?
The upside for Palin is probably Ron Nessen, who mildly embarrassed Ford on SNL. The downside is, who knows? She shoots Tina Fey from a helicopter?
"Lets win this first, I don't think we are at 78.5% yet. We need a sure win before expand the field."
He's polling consistently ahead in Kerry - NH + IA + NM + CO.
There's no such thing as a "sure win," but that's about as close as it gets.
Come on McCain! 21.5% is craaaaaaaap!
STepper,
No, the forecast represents the outcomes on Election Day. Barack Obama would have like a 95% chance of winning an election held today.
State that are closr could flip if Pew and Nate are right about cell phones and Selzer is right on the youth vote.
Both those are IF's
fred,
Huh?
Tim Russert got us into Iraq? And to think I thought it was Congress all this time ;-)
Nate -
I put this in previous post, but - possibly there is a mistake in there and the simulation needs a re-run? The 9/24 SurveyUSA result is listed twice for NY using different weights.
Clearly, ARG and Battleground are LYING about Obama! Call out the "truth squads" and drag them off. There's no room in the new America for that kind of thing.
Nate talked to stepper :(
I'm jealous. I'm a way bigger fanboy.
anon said...
I don't know when this will translate but a voter like my sister in Ohio was probably just won over by Obama. She judges things on her pocketbook and and who she would like to see on her tv for the next four years. I think Obama smiling and being comfortable got her last night. Or, at least, McCain's angry old man routine lost her.
Intuitively picking the right guy. That's how JFK, RR, and BC won good for your sis!
I keep worrying about all the impediments to fair voting that the Republicans have introduced in many states such as CO and MI. Isn’t anyone else worried that this will seriously affect the election results?
inkie-
Lets not be close, lets solidify NH and CO before we get too heated about VA, NC, FL.
"BO would win in his simulations 78.5% of the time if the election were held today."
No, this is Nate's projection of how likely Obama is to win in November.
Florida is blue! We're working hard down here to make that a reality!
Amen, sdf. I'm volunteering in Central Florida. Where you located? Even if McCain takes the state, we're gonna make him pay heavily to defend it.
@Nate
So Obama has a 95% chance of winning today (or next Tuesday), but 78.5% if the election is on November 4 (assuming Bush/McCain don't invent a reason to cancel it)?
stepper,
I thought that Nate was basing the simulations on his projected Nov 4 vote totals and not on current polls. At least that's what is says in the FAQ
"Simulate our results 10,000 times based on the results of the projection"
The win probabilities come form the simulation which comes from the projection, not the snapshot.
That is the difference from this site and the Princeton site. They probabilities on the two sites should converge as we approach the election.
weesa-
Didn't you hear the Chris Matthews rant about how MSNBC was forced to be more postitve on Iraq because Russert trusted the president? Get with it my man!
"Nate isn't forecasting the weather but the current climate. BO would win in his simulations 78.5% of the time if the election were held today."
This is not true. The simulations take into account that these races tends to tighten as we near election day.
@Inkstain
Nate only talked to me because I messed up. (Unlike McCain my people will admit it.)
fan boy Ink,
How do you know they talked? Is stepper going to share? Inquiring minds....
I am terribly afraid of election fraud and voter suppression. I am a lawyer, I am helping in PA!
From: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/terry-trippany/2008/09/27/aol-straw-poll-mccain-63-obama-37
"Both CNN and Fox had "punch in" polling. Here were the numbers about midnight:
: CNN FoxNews TOTALS
McCain 30317 73800 104117
Obama 73250 15300 88550
These results show a few things:
1) for the total of all Democrats and Republicans and Independents, more voted for McCain where the vote ratio was 44% for Obama, but 56% percent for McCain.
2) CNN has a viewership that is mostly Democrats, that is a ratio of 3:1 over Republicans, yet Obama only got 7:3 ratio which, when a common denominator is used, yields 7:3 ratio out of 9:3 proving that many Democrats switched sides, at least when looking at debate performance. (A tie ratio would have been 9:3, but Obama only got 7:3).
3) FoxNews viewship is mostly Republicans, and that ratio is about 7:5 over Democrats according to recent viewer's survey. In this case McCain got a ratio of 3:1 and when the common denominator is changed for comparison we see that with a viewership of 7:5 McCain got a vote of confidence of 15:5 which exceeds a tie of 7:5 by 2 to 1
4) There was of course some independent voters in the mix, so the ratios are not perfect, but still close"
--
The Battleground poll is right. McCain is doing just fine right now. Nate continues to skew all the polling data because he's hoping his higher profile will help Obama get elected by driving the "Obama is picking up steam" narrative. This is humorous, if a bit pathetic. November 4 will be very interesting around here.
Oops. I did double-list the SUSA poll in New York, but that should have no material effect on the projections.
stepper was unwittingly destroying the 538-space-time fabric with his comments. Shame on his ass for bringing Nate out of the hidden realm.
@weesa523
My people talked to Nate's people. We're doing lunch next Thursday. With Sarah Palin.
Who cares about double-listing? No-one important comes to this site.
Nevada is blue to for the duration. As I commented last week it has been, along with Colorado, a storybook ground effort by Obama campaign.
You are allowed to discuss landslide as a possibility now.
LOL!
Rational Rico-
Posting crap based on biased self selecting populations will move noone here. Go back to the red state where those kind of lies will make you a hero.
Facts, try them.
"The Battleground poll is right. McCain is doing just fine right now. Nate continues to skew all the polling data because he's hoping his higher profile will help Obama get elected by driving the "Obama is picking up steam" narrative. This is humorous, if a bit pathetic. November 4 will be very interesting around here."
You are using a straw poll over a scientific poll. That is beyond pathetic.
rational rico - anyone who has even the barest understanding of statistics knows that you can't use a self-selecting sample.
@assmole
Don't worry. The Super Collider will be started up soon and make everything okay.
Landslide, please, lets just win first.
@Rational Rico -
Yes, Nate is skewing the numbers to help Obama get elected. Right.......
fred,
Guess I missed that... lots of people were "with the president" then unfortunately.
I'm definitely not with it... and I'm also definitely not a man ;-) But noted, thanks.
I was mostly referring to Tim's spirit and his coining of "red state" "blue state"
Stepper-
The supercollider is down til the spring. Too bad, a nice black hole in the planet is gonna be damn cool.
Ooooo, pretty Super Tracker! The trend line is about to go higher than it has ever been, and the projection line is already in new territory.
I miss the old days, when the Republican Convention bounce was giving the conservatives on here *something* to argue with.
LOL@ Rico!
Feel free to base your opinion of the state of the race on an internet poll. I'm sure that will go well for you.
The Internets: Where Ron Paul is the most viable Republican candidate.
:-P
fred said...
I am terribly afraid of election fraud and voter suppression. I am a lawyer, I am helping in PA!
_________________________________
Thankyou... What is it that you can do? - for instance when they just remove people from the electoral rolls and don't even tell anyone - isn't it too late?
Nate,
Congratulations on Rookie of the Year from Joe Klein!
http://time-blog.com/swampland/
I believe that ARG is an Omnibus polling firm. Do they draw their samples the same way that other purely political pollsters would? From what I read they just tack on a few political questions to a commercial product poll.
@rational rico
Yup, Nate's doing that. And he's also told me what tonight's Super Lotto numbers are since they are an algorithm of certain numbers here on this site.
You didn't realize it but as assmole has observed this site basically runs the clockwork universe.
Personally, I'm inclined to think more of a poll like this:
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/09/25/aol-straw-poll-sept-25-oct-2/
There is no "filter" put in by the biased pollsters to skew the results. Also, since Democrats are supposedly more likely to be internet users than Republicans any slant AOL users have towards being GOP voters is neutralized.
In the end McCain/Palin will take 290 EVs and Obama/Biden will end up with 248. Write it down. The "bitter clingers to guns and religion" are going to be the final decision makers in this campaign, not the Hollywood elites and Democratic bankers.
Aussie said...
I keep worrying about all the impediments to fair voting that the Republicans have introduced in many states such as CO and MI. Isn’t anyone else worried that this will seriously affect the election results?
Yes you're right. However, if the O win is big enough, say 330+ a steal will at last be regocnized, and won't be accepted by the people. So there is some hope a win might materialize this time.
weesa-
I loved Tim doing a interview, think of him with Palin! The thought will be hilarious.
Sorry, wo-man.
rational rico
According to the numerology of license plates at the local Burger King, Obama and Bob Barr are in a statistical dead heat with Krusty carrying only 2 pct of the vote...
"Personally, I'm inclined to think more of a poll like this:"
Which proves that you know absolutely, positively nothing about statistics or polling, and we can all point and laugh at your bad attempts at trolling.
Wait... some people are seriously putting more stock into an internet poll that anyone can vote in than scientifically conducted polls by real news organizations?
Hilarious. Please, keep putting stock in these polls. You'll be in for a great surprise on election day.
I've never seen Obama as quick witted as last night.
I wonder if we have hillary in part to thank for that.
rational rico-
Straw poll. Um...ok
aussie-
The idea is to get Secretary of State or local election officials to agree to rules for removing voters before it happens. Easier for everyone than a lawsuit on election day, but we file those to.
The Tax Poem
by BARAK OBAMA
At first I thought this was funny...then I realized the awful truth of it.
Be sure to read all the way to the end!
Tax his land,
Tax his bed,
Tax the table
At which he's fed.
Tax his tractor,
Tax his mule,
Teach him taxes
Are the rule.
Tax his work,
Tax his pay,
He works for peanuts
Anyway!
Tax his cow,
Tax his goat,
Tax his pants,
Tax his coat.
Tax his ties,
Tax his shirt,
Tax his work,
Tax his dirt.
Tax his tobacco,
Tax his drink,
Tax him if he
Tries to think.
Tax his cigars,
Tax his beers,
If he cries
Tax his tears.
Tax his car,
Tax his gas,
Find other ways
To tax his ass.
Tax all he has
Then let him know
That you won't be done
Till he has no dough.
When he screams and hollers;
Then tax him some more,
Tax him till
He's good and sore.
Then tax his coffin,
Tax his grave,
Tax the sod in
Which he's laid.
Put these words
Upon his tomb,
'Taxes drove me
to my doom...'
When he's gone,
Do not relax,
Its time to apply
The inheritance tax.
Accounts Receivable Tax
Airline surcharge tax
Airline Fuel Tax
Airport Maintenance Tax
Building Permit Tax
Cigarette Tax
Corporate Income Tax
Death Tax
Dog License Tax
Drivng Permit Tax
Excise Taxes
Federal Income Tax
Federal Unemployment (UI)
Fishing License Tax
Food License Tax
Gasoline Tax ( too much per litre)
Gross Receipts Tax
Health Tax
Hunting License Tax
Hydro Tax
Inheritance Tax
Interest Tax
Liquor Tax
Luxury Taxes
Marriage License Tax
Medicare Tax
Mortgage Tax
Personal Income Tax
Property Tax
Poverty Tax
Prescription Drug Tax
Provincial Income Tax
Real Estate Tax
Recreational Vehicle Tax
Retail Sales Tax
Service Charge Tax
School Tax
Telephone Federal Tax
Telephone Federal, Provincial and Local Surcharge Taxes
Telephone Minimum Usage Surcharge Tax
Vehicle License Registration Tax
Vehicle Sales Tax
Water Tax
Watercraft Registration Tax
Well Permit Tax
Workers Compensation Tax
STILL THINK THIS IS FUNNY?
Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, and our nation
was one of the most prosperous in the world.
We had absolutely no national debt, had a large middleclass,
and Mom stayed home to raise the kids.
What happened? Can you spell 'politicians'? What will Barack Obama do if elected?
"There is no "filter" put in by the biased pollsters to skew the results."
These pollsters got the result within one point based on final averages in 2004.
@rational rico
Yup, we Democrats, who are all basically out of work, do go on the Internets more (at our local libraries). And use the Google more too. While you Republicans have cornered the cell phone market. (And the Blackberry market, invented by your angry old man.)
At it's all fixed so that not only will Obama win here but also in the real world.
How did you figure this out? Damn you are one smart guy.
Tax for clean my ass.
And now Copypasta Rico?
What a dissapointing Troll. :-(
@stepper...
Lucky you. Tell Piggygate I said hi.
"Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, and our nation
was one of the most prosperous in the world."
If you want to live like people did 100 years ago, go right ahead.
I'll keep my indoor plumbing, thanks.
Rational Rico-
Go take basic stats, when you get a B or better come back. You are completely clueless.
So what do you honest, open-minded types think of Obama's goon squad in Missouri? I thought you guys liked the 1st Amendment. But no, your thugs are threatening to file lawsuits against anyone who says anything "untrue" about Obama. Are they planning to do the same to those who say something "untrue" about McCain? Palin?
Typical liberals.
Some random thoughts on the debate:
1. The debate wasn't boring. Lieberman vs. Cheney was BORING. Last night's debate was significantly more heated than Bush/Kerry vs. Bush.
2. My initial reaction was that it was a draw. But obviously it wasn't, seeing as independent/undecided voters overwhelmingly declared Obama the winner. That's the exact opposite of a draw.
3. Obama's only mistake was that he said McCain was "absolutelt right" about anything. But it obviously played well with independents. He stayed classy all night.
4. The voter graph on CNN was quite telling. Obama was the only candidate rate highly at any point during the debate. The two most obvious examples was when Obama was talking about Spending: Energy, Education, Competing.
He also scored highly on 9/11: Torture, Restoring America's values around the World.
McCain too a nose-dive, especialy with independents after throwing yet aother cheap shot at Obama, literally seconds after Obama complimented him on being against torture. In fact, McCain instantly took a dip whenever he started speaking.
5. All my pre-debate predictions were dead on. Obama played it a little too safe, he didn't go on the attack as much as he should have (GI Biil). McCain showed ZERO class.
6. Jim Lehrer was disgrace. Nobody has picked up on the fact that his moderating was slanted in McCain's favor. He let McCain have the last word all night and let him ramble without answering direct questions, sometimes from Obama. Something Lehrer encouraged the candidates to do.
Congratulations to President-elect Obama!
"Yup, we Democrats, who are all basically out of work, do go on the Internets more"
I do interwebs while I work, because I have a right to get money from my rich corporate bosses without actually working for it.
Working for money is something only righties do.
Inkstain-
Oh, so you agree that in 2004 people voted for who they were told? Admit it, the media's so-called "polling" is designed to produce a specified result. That is why you see the voter-affiliation numbers played with so much.
Typical.
@rational rico
Here's one for you. Milton Friedman has argued persuaively that budget deficits are regressive taxes. And the ones they tax the most are the unborn. So, now the Republican embrace of no choice is exposed.
On the other hand, Bush and his neocons have presided over the largest tax increase in history.
You guys just want a lot more future taxpayers to take the load off you.
Speaking of loads, thanks for Sean hannity's talking points for this weekend.
I thought Jim Lehrer did a fantastic job.
The troll just argued the 2004 media was in the tank for Bush.
Stupid evil conservative media.
At least that's a new one...
Rational Rico-
Are you awake? Do you know about the limited number of polling sites set up in black areas of St. Louis? The purging of St. Louis city voter rolls in 2000 and 2004? MO is a cesspool of repug corrupt politics by small town down state evangelicals. Get a clue, Obama is trying to make MO into a fair playing field.
Don't believe the rpub lie, get some facts!
Rational Rico-
The polster palying with numbers in the republican pollster Rasmussen who polls for Fox! OMG! You are a complete fucking idiot!
I love how libs say moderators are a disgrace whenever their guy loses. Do you remember the Dem primary and George S. and his sidekick supposedly helping Hillary? Yeah, the news media tilts right. Does any honest person think that any more? After the media has hushed up ANY criticism of Obama's radical record and pushed agendas such as suggesting that Palin's youngest son was conceived by incest with her daughter. You all must be so proud.
Huckebee is on Fox -- WoW he is demonstrating real leadership that was missing last night -- Why didn't McCain say this last night?
Mom stayed home to raise the kids.
And she had very few rights.
I think rational rico is some 17 year old kid who's afraid that he may have to pay taxes one day if he earns enough money. But he does read the Hannity talking points well.
At least he's talking about taxes now rather than some supposed friend of BO's.
McCain needed a game changer last night. He didn't get one.
So he will probably have to manufacture another "crisis" in which he'll try to show that he is a great bipartisan, maverick reformer. Too bad he's not one.
Maybe he should try firing one of his lobbyist campaign managers. That would be an interesting one
O8ama
fred,
Haha, lord hasn't this election taught you anything about sexism? j/k, I'm never that uptight or serious.
And yes, Timmy would be a hootin and hollerin over team stupid. Boo.
"But he does read the Hannity talking points well."
I don't think Hannity would have argued that the 2004 media was in the tank for Bush.
Failing at trolling x failing for being a troll = fail squared.
I amend my prior comments. rational rico has started to sink into the depths of Hannity's talking points. Apparently Obama runs SNL.
Rationakl Rico is a high school educated truck driver who really believes the lies he is fed, too bad, the guy HAD potential
"Why didn't McCain say this last night?"
Because nobody is at their mental peak at 72 years old.
"Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, and our nation
was one of the most prosperous in the world."
Yeah, back then the entire income of the national treasury was controlled with an iron grip by the trade controller of New York. The Republicans of that era reformed that system and introduced the income tax in a constitutional amendment that passed 2/3rds of the congress and 3/4s of the states. Everyone knew that a national income tax was far far superior to the old mercantile system of the 18th century.
My advice to you, before you spout about a bunch of garbage for which you have zero knowledge or basis for critique - is to read a book on the topic of national income methods prior to the changes implemented "100 years ago". And no, you're wrong, the ONLY time in the United States history which we had zero national debt was during the Andrew Jackson administration in the early 1800s.
STepper: Every once in a while Nate gets on here to talk to people. Sort of like a performer coming down from the stage and into the audience.
Joe Klein named Nate the "Rookie of the Year" in political analysis on his blog today. Let's hope this is the beginning of bigger and better things down the road.
I never listen to Sean Hannity, and I actually listen to NPR more than anything else if you must know. Still, I can see the media bias and you can too. You just don't care because you're thankful they're in the tank for your guy.
I've asked several time in these forums for Obama supporters to give me ONE, count them ONE of their favorite life accomplishments of Obama. I've never had one response. Pretty telling. You guys are all enamored with the celebrity. To create some intellectual honesty why don't you sit down and write an old-fashioned paper letter to George W. Bush thanking him for keeping you safe since 9/11? It would be good for your karma. And every good lib believes in karma or some alternative religion to the ones America was founded on.
"The troll just argued the 2004 media was in the tank for Bush."
Hahahaha I think I just peed. Ink for veep!
My dear Bruins just got stomped again, this time by Fresno Statem. Maybe McCain could suspend his campaign again while he has a commission appointed to find out if Rick Neuheisel should be fired. He can probably appoint Sarah Palin to the commission meaning, of course, that she won't be able to debate Biden this Thursday.
rational rico - can we get you and Sean Hannity on that commission, too?
FLGOP,
I actually find Huckabee to be much more well-spoken and well-versed on the issues than McCain most of the time. If you had asked me who had the best command of the issues of all the republican candidates back at the beginning, though, I never would have said that. It probably has to do with the fact that Huckabee can afford to be more of a human being when he isn't under constant candidate scrutiny.
"I've asked several time in these forums for Obama supporters to give me ONE, count them ONE of their favorite life accomplishments of Obama."
President of Harvard Law Review
Where were McCain/Palin today. Obama/Biden are in Virginia. There are conflicting reports about Palin appearig on SNL tonight. I think it would be a smart move, so I'm guessing it's not happening. I'd assume the cable networks have mentioned at some point where they're agging along with the candidates. Anyone know?
"Hahahaha I think I just peed. Ink for veep!"
As I said the other day, I'm actually about 1/5th of the way along the Sarah Palin career path.
Next I have to make the jump to TV news, then mayor, then governor, then VP.
Obama ahead by 50 points... In a poll of 538 fanatics! Could we see an electoral sweep?
Have a great Saturday afternoon!
STepper said...
@rational rico
Yup, we Democrats, who are all basically out of work, do go on the Internets more (at our local libraries).
Yup, and her you can see who put us out of work;
STepper said...
@rational rico
Yup, we Democrats, who are all basically out of work, do go on the Internets more (at our local libraries).
"Obama ahead by 50 points... In a poll of 538 fanatics"
Outier!
Rational Rico,
And 100 years ago, lynching black people was considered to be pretty much okay in much of the nation. And 'Mom' wasn't allowed to actually pursue her career, or vote. Furthermore, the much larger working class were treated like absolute shit. Unions were busted with the connivance of the government and police.
Don't tell me things were better 100 years ago. Because that is bullshit. Want to talk about when times were better? Try a decade ago, when Bill Clinton was President.
I just hope that Obama's up to the gargantuan task of cleaning up the huge mess that Bush has left behind.
RR-
OMG, the country was founded on freedom of religion, not on christianity.
In addition , Ink I get the feeling that politicians running for office lose all their guts and humor because they are "scripted" not to offend any voters and avoid gaffes that everyone jumps on..
Huckabee is humorous, politically astute, a populist, and now in his commentary show, he can just tell what he believes to be the truth, rather than what will get him the most votes -- very different goals.
"I've asked several time in these forums for Obama supporters to give me ONE, count them ONE of their favorite life accomplishments of Obama. I've never had one response."
First African American head of the Harvard Law Review ?
Huckabee is awesome. I just can't help watching him and thinking how awesome it is that Kevin Spacey is running for President.
He would have made a much better VP pick that Palin, even in doing what Palin was supposed to do, which is rallying the base. The base *loved* huckabee.
"alternative religion to the ones America was founded on."
Thomas Jefferson was an Atheist. True story.
@ratrional rico - my favorite accmplishments of BO are the ones that brought him here.
He energized a huge number of people who had lost hope in an equitable, honest Government, and promised to breing America back to its former place as a beacon of the world.
He directed and has run a brilliant political campaign, with his grace and equanimity and focus, beating the Clinton machine and now the Republican party to their knees.
A half black man who spent many years of his life in Indonesia, who has an Arab name, and who has only slightly more experience in state and federal government than Abraham Lincoln, is about to beat a decorated, brave war hero. Who has turned himself into a smoldering husk of his former glory.
In other words. Obama is a leader and has demonstrated himself to be such. He is not the legislator of the year, but that's not our form of government. As an NPR listener I would have thought you would understand these things.
Apparently not. You can lead a pig to water, but you can't make her put on her lipstick.
(This message was not approved by Barack Obama.)
"First African American head of the Harvard Law Review ?"
Keeping Alan Keyes out of the U.S. Senate?
Obama accomplishments:
Great constitutional law professor at a top 5 law school - a very hard job that takes us back to the founders.
fred said...
RR-
OMG, the country was founded on freedom of religion, not on christianity.
------------
Indeed, for the first few decades of its history, America was not an especially religious nation. It was only with the coming of the nineteenth century that the US really gained its reputation as the most religious of the Western countries.
It was founded on Enlightenment ideals, many of which are directly counter to the ultraconservative social ideals of modern-day fundamentalists.
Rational Rico...
"Tax him if he
Tries to think."
Clearly you have nothing to worry about.
Oh yeah, I'm pretty sure McCain said "Horseshit". That is unless he said "Hoursenot".
The only doubt I have is that even McCain isn't crazy enough to drop an H-Bomb during a nationally televised debate.
Then again, after his utterly incomprehensible antics this week...
"I've asked several time in these forums for Obama supporters to give me ONE, count them ONE of their favorite life accomplishments of Obama. I've never had one response."
I like... first African American to be a nominee for President on a major party ticket.
But on Nov. 5th I think I'll say that it was his CRUSHING victory over John McCain.
FAIL SQUARED!!!!
Ink is on it tonight with the funny!
Side thought.... new McCain/Palin campaign theme.
I love it when life is naturally hilarious.
@porridgegun
McCain was capable of "bomb bomb bomb, bomb bmomb Iran . . ."
Hickabee (my spelling) is now winning votes for McCain on Fox by have Elisabeth Hasselbeck talk about her interview of Obama with florid snippets of Jeremiah Wright. I guess rational rico dropped off so he could watch that and jerk off at the same time.
Warning: New Republican Strategy
George Will thinks McCain is pretty much finished, UNLESS Palin beats Biden, really really bad in the debate next week.
IF that happens, the word is that the evangelicals, oil industry backers and right wing conservatives will ask McCain to resign from the ticket for the good of the country (i.e. put Country First), and the Repub rigt will install Palin (i.e. Bush in a skirt), at the top of the ticket (instead of McCain), and replace Palin at the bottom the ticket with Cheney (dick, first name).
rational rico wrote:
Not one of these taxes existed 100 years ago, and our nation
was one of the most prosperous in the world.
Which of those taxes is John McCain going to eliminate?
I mean, the Republicans have had the WH for eight years now. If they really wanted to eliminate all of these atrocious taxes that you blame Obama for, then why haven't they?
Maybe you could post a "debt" poem about all of that wonderful debt that Republican rule has left us with.
I would have been worried about Huckabee. He would have rallied the base, although probably to a lesser extent than Palin.
Rational Rico said...
I never listen to Sean Hannity, and I actually listen to NPR more than anything else if you must know. Still, I can see the media bias and you can too. You just don't care because you're thankful they're in the tank for your guy.
I've asked several time in these forums for Obama supporters to give me ONE, count them ONE of their favorite life accomplishments of Obama. I've never had one response. Pretty telling. You guys are all enamored with the celebrity. To create some intellectual honesty why don't you sit down and write an old-fashioned paper letter to George W. Bush thanking him for keeping you safe since 9/11? It would be good for your karma. And every good lib believes in karma or some alternative religion to the ones America was founded on.
A) I wish Toobin hadn't mentioned our site last night. We end up with tools like thi fool posting and wasting space. I never thought anyone she be banned from posting, but this fool I'd pull if I were Nate. Ethics reform, Nuclear proliferation. Tom Coburn is one of my favorite Republicans. His idea to put all federal government spending on the internet for all citizens to see was co-sponsored by Obama. They spearheaded it together. McCain's only reasonable claim to the Presidency is the "reformer", his POW experience, and his backing of the surge. Obama helped reform Washington the moment he got there with the bill with Coburn. Mandatory disclosure of everything to the public ishuge. Much more than anything McCain's done in that regard. Obama was a lone voice against the war, far more important than pushing for a surge that may or may not have been the right choice. I'd prefer they pulled out. What exactly has McCain done other than use Charles Keating, his wife's money, and his POW BS hero story to get elected? MORON!
Seriously, Rico, do you believe any of this bullshit?
I'm laughing as I write this, I'd think *better* of you if you just thought we were really stupid and should get scared of an aol straw poll. Like maybe we would all feel impending doom and succumb to our master John McCain.
If you *really* believe this, I'd give anything to see the look on your face election day.
"IF that happens, the word is that the evangelicals, oil industry backers and right wing conservatives will ask McCain to resign from the ticket for the good of the country (i.e. put Country First), and the Repub rigt will install Palin (i.e. Bush in a skirt), at the top of the ticket (instead of McCain), and replace Palin at the bottom the ticket with Cheney (dick, first name)."
That's not even fun. That's the worst thing possible.
It'd be like my Cubs finally getting to the World Series and having to play the Alaskan state high school champs.
Sure, they'd win, but would it be satisfying?
Ya, and I heard the martians were going to replace McCain's brain. Not a chance...
Where's Nate? Where's rational rico.
You know, my people reported that they never see Nate and rational rico together. Do you think Nate's trying to drive up the numbers here?
No. If he wanted to drive up the numbers he'd change the interface and give us a real discussion board.
Elisabeth Hasselbeck just said that working Moms can "multi-task." (On the new Hickabee Fax show.)
That's good to know. Why can't McCain multi-task? (No uterus?)
Eric:Don't know where Palin is, but McCain has been in VA/DC allegedly making telephone calls to the House GOP to provide needed "glue" to put together the financial rescue package. But he's not talking to House Dems, so it's not clear what kind of glue he's applying, and where. I think he's probably back in VA/DC taking a long nap after his disastrous week.
There's a funny and skeptical blog entry about McCain's activities by Dana Bash of CNN.
Rational Rico,
Your an idiot.
While the election is far from over, McCain is getting his ass kicked all over the USA. Both the CNN and CBS polls were land-line poles of undecided voters, not CNN viewing audience.
On a sidenote: Nobody can actually multitask. Trying to do two one-hour tasks at the same time will just have you take 2 1/2 hours to complete the set.
Rational Rico is just so boxed in when it comes to his rationalization of everything conservative. If you only expose yourself to one ideology, and fully attack anyone who offers knowledge outside your ideology, it leads to ignorance.
You make sweeping comments about the state of taxes in America, like the system prior to our current tax model was better. You don't even know what the system was, why it was abandoned, or why the current one is far and away better. You need a keen sense of historical perspective before you're ready to propose sweeping modifications. Only an ignorant fool makes bold decisions without analyzing the both the future consequences AND the reason we're using the current system in the first place - aka historical perspective.
Rational Rico did drive everyone off.
OK, you are Obama, what state is most important - pick only one! I say CO.
You are McCain, what is your most important state today? I say NC.
"On a sidenote: Nobody can actually multitask. Trying to do two one-hour tasks at the same time will just have you take 2 1/2 hours to complete the set"
Do you have a link to that study?
My friends, Eric should be ashamed of questioning the integrity of a - "quote"- "maverick".
stepper,
That's RIGHT!! McCain has no uterus!!! I almost forgot.
"OK, you are Obama, what state is most important - pick only one!"
Pennsylvania. If he wins this, which he will, McCain's only path to victory is somehow sweeping half a dozen close states. Not likely.
"You are McCain, what is your most important state today?"
Pennsylvania. Without a significant dent in Kerry-NH, he has to win a half-dozen close states in a row without fail.
Hasselbeck just said her ethnicity is "American." UFB
InkStain said...
On a sidenote: Nobody can actually multitask. Trying to do two one-hour tasks at the same time will just have you take 2 1/2 hours to complete the set.
As a lawyer, I will do those things in 30 minutes and charge 5 hours for them. (My clients are rich Republicans and their corporations.)
WATCH THIS!
http://www.americablog.com/2008/09/oh-just-watch-it.html
I KNOW where Palin is!
She has been taken by the Secret Service to do Cheney, that's her debate prep!
weesa523 said...
stepper,
That's RIGHT!! McCain has no uterus!!! I almost forgot.
But he is a war hero and former POW. Did you know that?
ink,
It depends on the tasks involved. But the underlying argument you are going for is not valid in this case. Do you really think that McCain cannot accomplish anything else while these negotiations are underway. They require his full attention perhaps at any given time, but not 100% of his time.
rational rico--'The "bitter clingers to guns and religion" are going to be the final decision makers in this campaign, not the Hollywood elites and Democratic bankers.'
Actually, each person is entitled to the exact same role as a final decision maker in the campaign: one vote. It get tiring to see the "get out of your liberal bubble" talk from the right when they live in their own bubbles, too.
As for your poem: tldr kthxbye.
porridgegun
Your links never work buddy.
Knocked on doors for Obama here in Albuquerque today. Judging from the trailer park we dropped in on at the end of our shift, I'd have to say Obama is going to lose the crystal meth vote. I can only hope it won't be pivotal for McCain.
Sean, you're a hero to the crew at the North Valley field office for your entry on yard signs. Good on ya, mate.
Yeh, really bad Toobin got this site publicity. Nate must be pissed.
@ Kentucky Senate race:
Apart from the 59 seats that I consider likely democratic (including Hagan, Franken and Merkley) I only thought of 2 possible flips to achieve the 60 seat majority, the Wicker/Musgrove race or the McConnell seat, because McConnell is too exposed within the republican congressional delegation. He might become a scapegoat for all the recent catastrophes.
"Do you really think that McCain cannot accomplish anything else while these negotiations are underway. They require his full attention perhaps at any given time, but not 100% of his time."
I wasn't making any underlying argument, because doing two things in the same day isn't really multitasking as you just pointed out.
I was just pointing out that multitasking is a myth, and an excuse that young people use for why they want to slack off and play around on 538.com instead of finishing Sunday's sports section.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGT0zKz0JtA
The first five seconds of this is priceless.
The "crystal meth" vote. Hilarious.
Nice work good try. If BO loses the irrational drug addicts, we are OK!
"Personally, I'm inclined to think more of a poll like this:
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/09/25/aol-straw-poll-sept-25-oct-2/"
Cool! This poll has McCain winning Rhode Island. Roger Williams should be worried in Heaven.
And as far as the validity of AOL polls: AOL self-selected polls regularly put Republicans ahead everywhere except DC.
The idea that the left slant of the internet somehow "neutralizes" ANY tilt of AOL is laughable (although when I was browsing freerepublic for s***s and giggles, I saw someone claim that AOL leans left, which is even more laughable. They said that Robert Novak is a liberal too...)
The right answer, the courageous answer during the debate on the Economy was that no American gets a tax break.
Obama should have said 1) he would allow the Bush tax cuts to lapse, he would stay with his tax increases on the top 5%, and he would use the money to pay off the deficit, cover the 700B, and save the economy until it was clear that the economy has turned around.
McCain should have said he would not extend the Bush tax cuts until after the economy has turned around.
But the voters would not have agreed with this positions.
You still show Smith ahead in the OR Senate race despite two recent polls showing that Merkley has forged into the lead. Given Oregon's mail in voting, Smith has to come back faster than he would in any other state or he's toast.
The NC Senate race is also much tighter lately.
You guys are killing me tonight. So much funny in here I can't keep up.
Actually, last night Sarah Palin was hitting a bar.
Wow, PorridgeGun, thanks. That was a great link to that video!
Everybody should see that!
Would make a very very compelling ad!
I think liberals are too intelligent to use AOL, personally. The only intelligent peoplle who use it are in areas that lack high spedc internet connections....luckily Barack Obama wants to bring high speed to all rural communities.
I agree with the myth of multitasking as in doing two things simultaneously, but that was never the intended meaning of multitasking here.
From the moment McCain "suspended his campaign" you made the argument that nobody could multitask as the Dems were saying McCain should be able to multitask. Nobody suggested McCain negotiate the legislation at the same time that he was holding a political rally, but rather that he should be able to manage doing both in the same day. You have been arguing against one form of multitasking when that was never what was being suggested
Palin looks old in that bar picture.
She cannot become the standard for U.S. political hotness. Have you seen Ukraine's prime minister? Can we live with ourselves being smoked by the Ukraine in smoking hotness?
I can't.
"I've asked several time in these forums for Obama supporters to give me ONE, count them ONE of their favorite life accomplishments of Obama."
He's not Bush.
My multitasking point had nothing to do with McCain.
I was just making an aside about the myth of multitasking, sort of like how someone might mention that Ruth never called his shot in a discussion of baseball history.
shadowguidex--be very careful about using the "liberals are more intelligent" line.
I'm liberal and I used AOL back in the dark ages (although I probably would have voted for Dole in 1996 if I were old enough...long story.)
"(although I probably would have voted for Dole in 1996 if I were old enough...long story.)"
I voted for Nader just because I wanted him to get 5% and get any third party to federal recognition.
I voted for myself in 2004 because I couldn't think of anyone who represented my views more, and I resented being handed yet another Old Money White Guy from Yale battle.
The right answer, the courageous answer during the debate on the Economy was that no American gets a tax break.
Obama should have said 1) he would allow the Bush tax cuts to lapse, he would stay with his tax increases on the top 5%, and he would use the money to pay off the deficit, cover the 700B, and save the economy until it was clear that the economy has turned around.
That's exactly what Rubin is whispering in Obama's ear, and I hate it. Like go balistic hate it. The GOP comes to power talking about fiscal responsibility and then they have a big party and slash taxes and throw a few wars and when they finally wreck the economy the democrats get to come in and clean up the mess. Raise taxes and the like to pay the debt.
If that's the democratic parties function (and that's all I've seen in my life) I'm done with it. We need the party of sending folks to the gulliotine after they get done with their crazy excess.
@rational rico
i'm still working on my letter to george bush thanking him for not keeping me safe ON 9/11.
also... "Democratic bankers?" hahahhahahahhahahaha
I might have to watch Sarah Palin's debate the same way I watch Britney Spears videos, on Mute. The crappy things coming out of both their mouths ruins the work their bodies are doing.
I would absolutely love to watch Hillary and Palin in a debate, just to see Hillary totally eviscerate Palin and leave her for dead.
Real Joe Daily Tracker
McCain 60
Obama 35
Real Joe Daily Tracker brought to you by Joe Cola
Joe Cola ~ Drink It Everyday ~
I see Rational Rico is having his nightly "meal" of high gravity malt liquor and Oxycontin.
What a pathetic little fuck.
Trevor said...
shadowguidex--be very careful about using the "liberals are more intelligent" line.
Perhaps, but statistically liberals ARE more educated
Shadowguideex:
If you had a Palin-Hillary debate, they might actually make-up (sorry make out) on TV.
So, that could indeed be interesting, as they say!
Maybe this election the low information voters will break for the democrat.
Who the hell knows what these LIV (Low Information Voters) make up their mind on. Personally, i thought McCain won slightly on points, but what do I know, I thought Kerry mopped the floor with Bush every time.
These voters obviously don't care much for any one policy or ideology so i guess they go by feel. If you stopped rationalizing what the candidates were saying and just took in how they felt, Obama won.
2000 was a toss up election while we were at peace with a good economy that Bush/Rove and company stole with the help of Jeb in Florida. 2004 was a National security election and Bush won on toughness. This year is change.
Looking at the two men on that stage, who at a visceral level represented change? Obama truly represents change more than any other candidate ever, EVER. McCain can't compete with that. So all he had left was painting Obama as "Misunderstanding" and "Dangerous." Clearly Obama had an understanding of affairs, and even if McCain won the foreign policy debate, Obama held his own against the 26 year Washington veteran. So Obama passed the "Gut" test, and was much more pleasing to listen too than the grumpy sarcastic guy.
So, to the LIV, Obama won easily. It doesn't matter if it's logical, it just is.
fred said...
OK, you are Obama, what state is most important - pick only one! I say CO.
You are McCain, what is your most important state today? I say NC.
McCain's most important state - conscious!
It appears to still be a battleground state for him.
The reports on McCain riding to the rescue on the bill being hammered out are hilarious. These reports lie about McCain's role and what he is doing. He is not involved in the "negotiations" on the $700B buy out bill. (It's not a bail out.)
First, the economy isn't his strong suit. And, as far as he's concerned the fundamentals of the economy are just fine. Cindy made over $6M last year. Thank you.
Second and foremost, the buy out bill is being hammered out in committee by the committee members and their deisgnees. You'd think McCain would know that, since he's been in Congress for 26+ years.
The only thing McCain is doing is calling congressmen and telling them that if they screw this up he will have their a$$es November 5. He wants a bill passed, but one that gives tax breaks to his buddies. That's what is stalling this whole thing right now. The trickle down theorists on the right believe that you need a big capital gains tax cut -- even if it is only in the banking and mortgage industry -- to attract capital.
Of course, a tax cut for investors means more taxes for everyone else. And all we really need to do is set up a market to make these securities portfolios liquid again. Pretty soon the market will take care of itself and the US stands to make a huge profit.
McCain's next game-changing attempt will be the wedding of Bristol Palin.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4837644.ece
"If you had a Palin-Hillary debate, they might actually make-up (sorry make out) on TV."
Actually, I'd have to listen to the debate then, because I would love hearing Shang Sung say "FINISH HER!" after every 5 minute section.
Palin has major league Skippy Eye (My old dog named Skippy always had a glazed over oblivious look, and whenever I see the same in people, I called them Skippy-Eyed people).
A Bristol Palin wedding?
Fuck Steve Schmidt. Yeah, bring out the "celebrity" attack ads and then run a stunt straight out of People Magazine. That's the ticket!
we will win easy
no need to work hard !
obama is finish !
'Personally, i thought McCain won slightly on points, but what do I know, I thought Kerry mopped the floor with Bush every time. '
1st debate in '04 = Strong Kerry win
2nd = slight Kerry win
3rd = slight Bush win.
Also, Cheney beat Edwards by quite a bit (although Edwards matched expectations.)
It's debatable (pun intended) how much this matters, because I also thought Santorum ran over Casey in the debates (and I thought there was a realistic chance that "man-on-dog" would hold the seat when he was within the MOE.)
I see Rational Rico is having his nightly "meal" of high gravity malt liquor and Oxycontin.
What a pathetic little fuck.
Good one VC.
you guys watch. She won the Alaska governorship by lowering expectations and easily exceeding them.
The trickle down theorists on the right believe that you need a big capital gains tax cut -- even if it is only in the banking and mortgage industry -- to attract capital.
Capital gains tax cut...
Who the hell made capital gains this year? It's all losing. Your tax bill is zero, they don't tax you for losing money! These people are beyond ridicule.
Personally I am really happy that the trackers have moved in Obama's direction after McCain's stunt. I do not know how he can possibly pull it out now to make it look like a political victory for him. This is one of the most significant victories I can remember where the Dems actually framed and spun the news story to their favor.
From talkingpointsmemo:
Pelosi said Obama would speak for the Democrats. Though later he would pepper Paulson with questions, according to a Republican in the room, his initial point was brief: "We've got to get something done."
Bush turned to McCain, who joked, "The longer I am around here, the more I respect seniority." McCain then turned to Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to speak first.
Boehner was blunt. The plan Paulson laid out would not win the support of the vast majority of House Republicans. It had been improved on the edges, with an oversight board and caps on the compensation of participating executives. But it had to be changed at the core. He did not mention the insurance alternative, but Democrats did. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, pressed Boehner hard, asking him if he really intended to scrap the deal and start again.
No, Boehner replied, he just wanted his members to have a voice. Obama then jumped in to turn the question on his rival: "What do you think of the [insurance] plan, John?" he asked repeatedly. McCain did not answer.
One Republican in the room said it was clear that the Democrats came into the meeting with a "game plan" aimed at forcing McCain to choose between the administration and House Republicans. "They had taken McCain's request for a meeting and trumped it," said this source.
Congressional aides from both parties were standing in the lobby of the West Wing, unaware of the discord inside the Cabinet room, when McCain emerged alone, shook the hands of the Marines at the door and left. The aides were baffled. The plan had been for a bipartisan appearance before the media, featuring McCain, Obama and at least a firm statement in favor of intervention. Now, one of the leading men was gone.
A must-read for this site:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/in_multiple_key_battleground_s.php
Comparisons of Democratic and Republican voter registration.
"you guys watch. She won the Alaska governorship by lowering expectations and easily exceeding them."
VP debates do not change elections.
Does anyone even remember Cheney vs. Edwards or Lieberman?
The only one I ever remember is Quayle almost crying on stage.
VC,
Do you think they would *actually* cover/have a wedding though...? Given everything else that's happened?
I can't see it. They HAVE to know how bad that would be... and if not, then they absolutely deserve to lose b/c that = horrible judgement.
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