This was one messy little day in politics. I was on a train up to Wisconsin, where I'm going to be giving a presentation tomorrow, and during that time not only had John McCain "suspended" his campaign -- but SurveyUSA had actually put out polling on it!
Likewise, the polls today are a big sloppy mess:
How can Barack Obama be 8 points ahead in Pennsylvania according to CNN, but 1 point ahead according to Strategic Vision? Because Strategic Vision's polls have had a 2-3 point Republican lean so far this cycle, and CNN's have had a 1-2 point Democratic lean. If you are able to account for that -- and we do -- the two polls are within one's anothers margin of error.
And even the polls that don't contradict one another require various sorts of caveating. No, I've never heard of the MRG poll in Michigan, nor the Project New West poll in Nevada, but they don't fail any of our bright line tests, so they're in. And remember that we're still using the registed voter versions of these polls where we have the choice, which is why the Obama's leads in the Marist polls in New Hamshpire and Iowa are smaller than you might see listed elsewhere ... Democrats seem to be closing and in some cases reversing the likely/registered voter gap, which means that the enthusiasm gap may also be widening again. We will switch over to the likely voter version following the debate on Friday (if there is one!)
The only thing we can say for certain is that things are going well for Obama in Colorado, where all polls have him ticking upward fairly sharply, and all have him polling ahead of his national numbers. But this is a day where it's probably best to take a mulligan and wait a day or so for things to settle down.
9.24.2008
Today's Polls, 9/24
@ 8:46 PM
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448 comments
Oh hallelujah, and amen!
Wait... I mean, dammit.
Uh, I mean... I'm suspending the campaign.
Aren't polling results going to be somewhat unreliable until the post-debate polls are filtered in?
Nate,
Just so you are aware of it, there have been a lot of turmoil in the comments section. The worst incidents have been a sock puppet infestation who is impersonating lots of regular users. A number of those regulars have set up a companion site with moderated comments because they were frustrated with the comments section here. I know that you said that you aren't a web guy, but you should know that this is happening.
McCain is no Flutie... his hail mary's are falling way short...
Nate, new EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan.
Obama 48
McCain 38
Suspend the comments section!
Since these polls are coming in on different days, I can't clear away the noise: I think several of these polls show the anxiety of the peak of the financial crisis, but I can't be sure. I am also wondering how much the financial crisis will keep on being the number one story and thing on people's mind. If it maintains as a big news story, I think McCain will continue to lose those vital points in the key states. But of course, we don't have exact proof of that here, look at Florida and the like.
I saw other Marist polls (for MI, OH, and PA) over at Political Wire. Forgive the silly question, but why were these polls not included?
These polls will be considerably different come Monday.
1. McCain's decision.
2. If there will be a debate.
3. Bail out, if one?
---These three could considerably hinder the race as we know it.
Nate. Do you think the Survey USA was worth anything? Interesting conclusions for sure:
America's 1st Reaction -- Friday's McCain-Obama Debate Should Still Be Held On Friday, But Perhaps with New Focus: Immediately after John McCain's announcement at 3 pm ET today, Wednesday 09/24/08, that he was suspending his campaign and seeking to postpone Friday's scheduled presidential debate, SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide. Key findings:
A majority of Americans say the debate should be held on Friday. Just 10% say the debate should be postponed. A sizable percentage of Americans, 36%, think the focus of the debate should be modified to focus more on the economy. 3 of 4 Americans say the presidential campaigns should continue. Just 14% say the presidential campaigns should be suspended. If Friday's debate does not take place, 46% of Americans say that would be bad for America.
Look at the return on investment index map. It's getting so the best place to invest a campaign's resources is--everywhere! This is quite an interesting race...
"Shefik said...
Oh hallelujah, and amen!
Wait... I mean, dammit.
Uh, I mean... I'm suspending the campaign."
My friends, I'm going to give it to you straight; just how you'd expect it from a straight talking maverick like me, when I say: "LOLz."
The suspention of the debates is a joke, i respect McCain but this play is a disaster.
This is why McCain cancelled the debates. Sarah Palin on CBS tonight. Utter disaster.
http://www.americablog.com/2008/09/this-is-why-mccain-canceled-debates.html#disqus_thread
"I saw other Marist polls (for MI, OH, and PA) over at Political Wire. Forgive the silly question, but why were these polls not included?"
It's because they were first announced several days ago, so they have already been included in the model. Marist re-announced them today, along with the new IA and NH polls.
You are right. Palin was a disaster but it will get less play b/c of this ploy.
Well I have to say I'm surprised. This has been a formidable day in national polling for Obama (see how his RCP average has grown) and at worst an OK day for state polling. I expected a nice uptick in his EV number
The most interesting number is the 5-point gap in WV, similar to the other two polls from earlier this month. It seems to have fallen off the radar screen of political junkies over the last three months; I guess the assumption was that if Obama lost the primary there as badly as he did, that the state wouldn't be within reach in the general. It will be interesting to see whether the campaigns view these numbers as reliable enough to make an investment in WV.
Lame: Congress needs McCain's help like I need my 2 year old son's help lifting a couch. It makes him feel good about himself, and important, but any mature observer knows that the 2 year old is being humored and is contributing little. McCain is asking us to smile at him, the economic two year old, while he goes to "fix" the economy.
PS: Funny how he has time for his other meetings tomorrow, and a long drawn out day of announcing his gimmick. This is pathetic.
Obama up by 10 in Michigan. (Detroit News EPIC-MRA).
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26875816/
BUSH: "Obama AND McCain to join him at White House tomorrow."
"It will be interesting to see whether the campaigns view these numbers as reliable enough to make an investment in WV."
Advertising time must be pretty cheap in WV, so Obama might want to consider a trial run of ads to see if he can move the numbers at all. It's a pretty long shot, though, and he'd probably be better off focusing more of this time and energy on places like VA, OH, PA, MI, NH, CO, and NV.
Bailout?
McCain already has!
I thought the campaign season couldn't get any more chaotic than it was right after the Palin pick. I should have had more imagination. Fasten your seatbelts everyone, it's going to be a bumpy few days.
Why did Nevada drop below 50% and WV drop several % despite polls that should've moved them up? Are the models that dependent on other states?
MI and PA both dropped below 80 and NH dropped below 60, which I think are fair decisions despite the mix of polls.
Shaheen/Sununu should be lower than 92% given the Sununu+7 today.
Sept 24 Polling Update
Obama 269, McCain 269
McCain's nationa convention bounce graph
This settles it.
First book i'm going to wait in line at midnight to buy during the Obama administration will be the tell-all book by someone in the McCain campaign that will give us a first hand account of the chaos of the campaign post-palin and talking about where things went wrong. I wonder, from an insiders perspective, what will be defined as the beginning-of-the-end?
(A) Palin pick
(B) "Fundamentals of the Economy are strong"
(C) Campaign "time out"
This latest ultimatum by McCain is possibly the biggest risk he's taken, sans maybe for the Palin pick. But this time it was stupid. The best thing that could happen for him is that the bill gets passed, and he gets to go to the debates claiming that "he took action". Will it fool some low-info votes? Maybe, but polling seems to suggest that most folks blame republicans for this mess anyways and feel Obama has a much better grasp on things.
But - and this is the truly devastating part for McCain - if for some reason the bill has NOT been passed by the time of the debate, McCain is left with one extremely embarrassing and damaging choice, and one nearly unthinkable choice. He either shows up (contradicting himself earlier), which makes the whole thing look like one giant gimmick (which it is, imo), and only further cements the publics view that Obama and the dems are the ones they need to trust with the Economy. And if THAT view sticks for the next six weeks, McCain is done.
Even worse still, imagine if he DIDN'T show up to the debate. Polling suggests that by a large margin, Americans want the debates to continue. Can you IMAGINE if Obama showed up, stood next to an empty chair in front of 75+ million people?The image would be more blinding than the sun reflecting off of McCain's pale body. Imagine if he got to use even 15 minutes to make a campaign speech? In front of TENS OF MILLIONS LIVE? He could actually manage to seal the deal with the public that he is "presidential enough." That's all Kennedy needed to do, and that was WITH nixon on stage! That scenario is unthinkable for the McCain campaign. It would be like having another convention speech. Not to mention that this was the FP debate, which was mccain's best chance.
It would be something that political historians discussed for decades...
I wonder when the next the republican party will manage to get someone elected president?
Obama serves from 2009-2017 (even if the country is doing OK, his mandate will be huge)
Election '16 - VA, CO, NV, NM, IA, and NC are now blue. Possibly FL, MT, ND, WV, IN, and OH as well. Minority percentage of this country will have spiked, and almost all of the "greatest generation" will have died off.
Unless the republicans manage to run another Ronald Regean, and unless the country is in shambles, the Dems take the WH with someone like Warner, or Schweitzer.
By 2020/2024 the folks retiring will baby boomers who grew up in the '60s and '70s. The "18-34" crowed from this year will be the new 34-50. The 18-34 crowd of 2020 will be even more highly educated than this years' crowd. Minorities are expected to represent THIRTY NINE PERCENT (39%) of the population.
If republicans lose this election, and they don't make some RADICAL changes to their party (kick out the gods-gays-n'-guns folks, as well as the hawkish neocons and xenophobes), unless there is some sea change that doesn't match up with the current trends, they are going to be out of power for a VERY long time.
The WV numbers are indeed amazing. I wonder if Clinton should hit a few cities there just for fun.
On a side note, McCain campaign mis-sent this Talking points memo to an entire volunteer group in CO here.
McCain, the campaign of comedy.
Would they really do this to cover the Palin's inteview? I think it might be to get the VP debate cancelled, or get PAlin off the ticket.
Thanks for the update, Nate.
What a day. Tomorrow McCain starts lessons in chewing gum and walking at same time.
I'm not going to complain about comments anymore. Nate has so many things going on, I am just happy he wants to have this site. I have learned so much and am addicted to his number crunching. Love the road trip, too.
This is an election site. If it is going into moth balls after Nov. 4th I wouldn't expect Nate to want to go through more hoops to change comments.
Bush-Obama-McCain in one room in the White House.
One has been, one never will be, and the next President. [IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER]
If only 10% support McCain's decision to postpone, that really is a bad omen for his campaign.
It looks like the Kerry + CO + NM + IA path is coming to the boil nicely for Obama, with the possible exception of NH. It as if Michigan and Pennsylvania are doing okay for the Dems,
Read this
Attempted Nate Silver slam by Gary Kilbride in the comments!!
My favorite line is... wait for it...
"Nate Silver needs to stick to politics and leave out the sports betting references"
Because we all know that Nate knows nothing about sports betting!!! LOL
LOL!
Hmmm, why can Obama meet with Bush AND prepare for the debate. McCain not that smart?
"I wonder when the next the republican party will manage to get someone elected president?"
Honestly, if Jindal runs in 2012 then barring a massive scandal I'd give him 80% odds of beating Obama, and decent odds of going WELL into the 300s in EVs.
There are just too many economic issues that Obama can't fix, and the electoral map reapportionment will help Jindal slightly.
The way Bobby was able to dominate against strong, moderate Dems (he would have destroyed Breaux or Landrieu if they ran) in his '07 election is a case for nationwide electability.
NC,
I'm hoping someone is recording some of the chaos in the McCain campaign and that we see it later on youtube.
PorridgeGun...that video was great. The last 15 sec's say it all. "I'll get back to you later..." was the best I heard out of her mouth yet. What a joke!
LOL!
Nate Silver, ya, he knows nothing about baseball. Nothing I tell you. (If I say it enough times it makes it true right, works for repugs...)
The last two months I've really enjoyed this site and blog, though the conventions-induced rollercoaster wasn't good for my blood pressure. The topic I'm putting on the table now is the result of reading the Twelfth Amendment again, with an eye out for strangeness. The amendments that shape the Electoral College (a term never appearing in the Constitution by the way) are the Twelfth and the Twentieth. The rules they set out are further refined in U.S. Code Title 3, Chapter 1, Section 15 (passed in in 1934). The code makes it clear it's the newly elected Congress which handles the Electoral College. That's not news to many of us, but here's a little something that might be. The Twelfth Amendment states (not altered by subsequent amendments) that if no one gets the majority of Electoral Votes (now 270), the House is to cast one vote per state along with one vote for DC (included by the Twenty-third Amendment) for one of "the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those vote for as President."
Okay, here's the strangeness. Most of us have been assuming the House would split its 51 votes between McCain and Obama. But not so fast. If only one elector casts a vote for a third person, say Barr or Nader or Paul or H. Clinton or Palin (or anyone else eligible to be President for that matter), then the House would have to split its votes among THREE candidates. The permutations boggle the mind. And one doesn't have to think long to realize all the opportunities for mischief in THAT!
So for those of us assuming 269 EV for our candidate would be just fine, it's time to think again. Let's all hope we don't find ourselves with Obama or McCain at 269 EV.
The last two months I've really enjoyed this site and blog, though the conventions-induced rollercoaster wasn't good for my blood pressure. The topic I'm putting on the table now is the result of reading the Twelfth Amendment again, with an eye out for strangeness. The amendments that shape the Electoral College (a term never appearing in the Constitution by the way) are the Twelfth and the Twentieth. The rules they set out are further refined in U.S. Code Title 3, Chapter 1, Section 15 (passed in in 1934). The code makes it clear it's the newly elected Congress which handles the Electoral College. That's not news to many of us, but here's a little something that might be. The Twelfth Amendment states (not altered by subsequent amendments) that if no one gets the majority of Electoral Votes (now 270), the House is to cast one vote per state along with one vote for DC (included by the Twenty-third Amendment) for one of "the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those vote for as President."
Okay, here's the strangeness. Most of us have been assuming the House would split its 51 votes between McCain and Obama. But not so fast. If only one elector casts a vote for a third person, say Barr or Nader or Paul or H. Clinton or Palin (or anyone else eligible to be President for that matter), then the House would have to split its votes among THREE candidates. The permutations boggle the mind. And one doesn't have to think long to realize all the opportunities for mischief in THAT!
So for those of us assuming 269 EV for our candidate would be just fine, it's time to think again. Let's all hope we don't find ourselves with Obama or McCain at 269 EV.
Again - anyone explain why Obama's EV dropped today? I'm having trouble with that.
To anybody that didn't see the Palin interview with Couric. It's an embarrassment that she's a VP nominee, She makes Quayle seem smart.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/
Jindal 2012?
SurveyUSA Poll: 86% of Americans say debate should take place as scheduled, only 10% agree with McCain that it should be postponed. And 14% agree with McCain that the candidates should suspend their campaigns.
Ouch.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportUC.aspx?g=54d651a7-a62b-4420-bb32-9dd6b2df8c02
Jindal is our secret weapon. He is LOVED down South, and is truly a reform Governor.
Jindal>Palin.
We saw Jindal lead during Gustav. He was outstanding. He spoke at press conferences for hours without reading the notes at the podium.
Jindal is a fabulous politician, but he got 4-8 years before he runs.
Jindal has alot of really right wing positions, almost as nutty as Palin. I thinkl the young vote is really against that, and they will continue to vote if they taste an Obama win.
I think Hillary gives Obama a run in 2012 primary if the economy really tanks,,,
Darío!!
Post on my forum!
http://pollwatcher.forumcircle.com/viewforum.php?f=7
Oh and of course:
"Look at how BLUE that map is!"
and
On this day, september 24th, in 2004, President Bush led john kerry 47.5% to 43.3%
For final results, please see Presidential Inauguration, 2005
At no point in between this date four years ago and election day, did John kerry ever retake the lead in the polls...
Me too eve. I suspect that when the tell-all books hit the market, they will reveal that things were even more unorganized and chaotic then we thought. I bet we'll hear about alot of tension that existed between McCain and Schmidt, etc.
Imagine if he had picked Romney. He might have been able to use the last week to his ADVANTAGE, which would have spelled game over for Obama. I'm guessing that mittens has a pretty big shit eating grin right now, as well as some "choice words" for the JMAC campaign, and is looking very eagerly at 2012.
Becky-
The polls lag the news. McCain did not need this long ball, it is kinda funny that he through it as he was actually in a better spot than pre-conventions. Really strange campaign they are running.
Oh please. If he had picked Romeny you would portray him as a Let-Them-Eat-Cake Baron Robber de-regulator.
Spare me.
Saw a comment on one CBS news where several people were discussing the Palin interview and the fact that Mc Cain is rushing to 'do' something while Obama is just worrying about the election. This stuff scares me. I watched it unfold today and I worry that Mc Cain will somehow come out of us being a hero when he is NOT
Letterman ridicules McCain for cancellations
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/24/letterman-brutalizes-john-mccain-for-cancellations/#comments
Jesus, how can anyone defend the Palin selection after seeing that interview? What a colossal clusterf***k.
but Fred, the national polls were by and large excellent for Obama today, and state polls weren't too shoddy on average either
VC-
Get some new software overthere!
Fred--
I'm a cheap ass :P
VC: That may be true of the Dems, but even you must admit that the public image of Romney is that he is EXTREMELY well versed on economic issues. You would have had a MUCH better shot at MI, WI, and PA as well.
Even you can't tell me you wouldn't rather him talking about right now versus palin showing Couric ten different ways to dodge a question...
There was a discussion about the MRG poll yesterday on fark. Not that fark conversations are to be taken seriously, but no one could find any hard data on who MRG even is (aside from a British polling group). New Republic Online stated that Michigan is 'hard to poll' and that only MRG 'gets the state'. Now, not sure how a British polling firm gets the state any more than EPIC-MRA or the other semi-local polling agencies, but we all thought it was a little odd.
if for some reason the bill has NOT been passed by the time of the debate
At this point, is there any reason to believe that it will be?
True Becky, but the state polls did not flip any states. And McCain is better in MI, NH and PA than before the conventions. If he flips those it is pretty good for him.
unless tyhe +10 Obama poll is real...
to gg - The problem with your analysis is that while Obama's path isn't certain to 26 in thsoe scenarios, it's better than anyone else's. The house just can't keep revoting forever, eventually they have to choose, and anybody but Obama is quite farfetched.
"Again - anyone explain why Obama's EV dropped today? I'm having trouble with that."
The model predicts various scenarios. When Obama was surging in the polls, it calculated in the possibility that we were in an utter landslide scenario when McCain had done something horrible, and therefore the polls would just keep flying toward Obama.
Each day that that doesn't happen, the model discounts it a little more. So basically, the tracker was accounting for Obama "momentum" that didn't show up.
I post in your site VA Cons. Thank you very much.
What did you guys think of President Bush's speech and also do you think McCain will make inroads with undecideds for this stunt?
reader-
yes, it will likely be passed before the debates. the thing could get delayed, but...
Expect Obama's lead to widen.
McCain trying to postpone the debate is hugely at odds with SUSA's snap poll of Americans' view on the debate. Plus, the McCain camp was proposing the pres. debate be rescheduled for Oct. 2 which would force the Biden-Palin debate to be moved later as well. Most can spot this ploy to give Palin more time to cram for the test. That's what you call a cover-up and it's not popular in the US. It tips total lack of confidence in their own candidate. It suggests McCain botched his decision and knows it. He looks desperate which is not what Americans want to see in their president in a crisis.
I think states across the board will keep sliding Obama's way.
Thanks for approving me on your board, vcon; I never saw a confirmation e-mail so I got a little concerned.
This is one link for the Michigan +10 Obama.
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26875816/
We need your opinion on this topic, Dario. Go here
http://pollwatcher.forumcircle.com/viewtopic.php?t=5
It's about Argentina.
YW there's no confirmation email, you just gotta check back.
A bit off topic, but isn't it time the American public call on the United Nations to provide independant monitors to ensure Free and Fair Elections in the USA?
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Votes-are-being-stolen-no-by-Robert-F-Kennedy-080923-511.html
All your polling is pointless if the Republican Party is conducting widespread voter fraud.
And to think that Americans think of themselves as the bastion of Democracy...
vanessa-
depends on how it [lays in the press. i bet letterman and leno and SNL eat him alive for this. Time will tell....
Va Con do you think your Candidate bought himself some time today?
Damn I forgot about my work! I'm going to get fired!
"What did you guys think of President Bush's speech and also do you think McCain will make inroads with undecideds for this stunt?"
Bush's speech seemed fine to me....pretty short and generic. I would really be surprised if McCain benefited from today's events, especially since both senators will be meeting with the President tomorrow. They're both showing up to Washington at the same time. What happens re: the debate is still up in the air, though. At this point I expect it will happen.
Vanessa-
This is either brilliant or will backfire. I'm leaning towards the latter. It was a good initial move, but there's no follow-through.
The WV numbers are indeed amazing. I wonder if Clinton should hit a few cities there just for fun.
Depends on which one.
Hillary, sure.
Bill...not without a chaperone. Maybe with Biden.
The talk of the Bradley Effect from repubs bothers me, not because I think it is real but because they could use it as an excuse when they steal the election...
A comment on a couple of the polls out:
MRG may be nonpartisan, but it's run by a Republican blogger.
New West is a Democratic poll.
"The talk of the Bradley Effect from repubs bothers me, not because I think it is real but because they could use it as an excuse when they steal the election..."
Oh please. Give me a break man.
As far as why Obama's % dropped a touch today, the national polls show him maybe +.5% when you average everything, and the VA, NH, FL polls were no help where he needed it. The single NV poll by itself won't move much of anything. CO, IA, PA were already looking in the bag and the numbers aren't incredible if you account for the house effects of today's pollsters.
VA Cons, i´m in the USA since 2005.
So do you think this could be a complete game changer for McCain?
I mean to me he clearly seems desperate but to the low info voter, I just cannot tell.
That SUSA poll isn't good for McCain, but it's not exactly proof that Americans will react badly.
For one thing, it's not a poll of Americans. It's a poll of Americans who answer their phones on a Wednesday.
And whether we like it or not, we are all human. Our responses to generic concepts without candidates or parties attached to them will be different than when we found out how our guys feel.
The jury is out.
Hey vcon, why not start a house/senate race section on your board?
Cool Dario there was just something Mason posted, he asked about Buenos Aires. He wanted your opinion.
@Reader said...
if for some reason the bill has NOT been passed by the time of the debate
At this point, is there any reason to believe that it will be?
Some Democrats and MOST republicans are AGAINST any deal -- and maybe because the polls says the American people are against any deal.
There MAY be a deal if Obama and McCain have any influence
Trevor--
Good idea.
Obama acept Bush´s invitation.
will this show up in tomorrow's polling?
I wrote both my senators and my congressman today discussing the bailout.
I urge everyone, regardless of how they feel about it, to do the same. It's too important not to let American voices be heard.
And since most Congressmen prefer e-mail these days, it's never been easier.
Olbermann's running clips of this tonight - Sarah Palin recieving the blessing of Pastor Thomas Muthee, who asks Jesus to fund her political campaigns, and protect her from WITCHCRAFT.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwkb9_zB2Pg
Yikes!
I hope the dems stall it to saturday
"will this show up in tomorrow's polling?"
I doubt it. It takes a few days for these things to digest.
And the big, big question is whether McCain shows up to the debate. All polls have to be kinda in limbo until mid-week.
Vanessa-
Most polls are more than one night, and most folks won't even really know this tonight. So, no, give it a cuple days.
"Olbermann's running clips of this tonight - Sarah Palin recieving the blessing of Pastor Thomas Muthee, who asks Jesus to fund her political campaigns, and protect her from WITCHCRAFT."
Is that the one who started a literal witchhunt and almost got someone stoned?
>>Vanessa: So do you think this could be a complete game changer for McCain?
I don't think its sunk him yet. But he has two days to figure out what to do (debate or not) and neither option looks pretty. Then in Friday the S hits the F.
On the other hand Bush or one of his friends could concoct a new emergency to cover for him I suppose.
I just watched Palin's Couric interview.
Frankly, I think she handled herself just fine. I did agree with those who said her Gibson interview was a crash-and-burn, but I didn't see anything too bad here.
Even at the end -- all politicians sometimes get caught not knowing the answer to something and her answer was cute, even disarming.
VC-
I am from small town America, and I know votes have been faked and numbers inflated. I don't think it, I know it. This is not a Diebold concern.
Fred-
Fraud happens on both sides, but tends to cancel eachother out.
Prediction: Obama's win percentage cracks 80% by Friday or Saturday.
If SUSA is any indicator, today as well as tomorrows' polls are NOT going to be kind to McCain...
Yeah Charles I kind of agreed - apart from the end she did better than I expected. Even sounded smart a couple of times
So inkstain you're still of the opinion that Obama has this thing in the bag or could this change your thoughts.
Ahh, understood. Thanks Sedi! (Not that you'll read this since there are literally 700 billion comments on this thread now.)
I mean watching George Bush speak just made me angrier. I don't know what it does to the average undecided voter.
If she did well, then this has to be a whole crazy poll changer and McCain's internals must look scary bad.
Then why are they trying to postpone the VP debate? The VP debate might be their game changer, but they are trying to blow that to.
"So inkstain you're still of the opinion that Obama has this thing in the bag or could this change your thoughts."
I think he's still in a very, very strong position.
I guess it's not impossible that the public rallies around McCain and this pushes him back into it.
But if I had to take a bet, Obama at 75% would look better to me than McCain at 25%.
VA cons, in what post Mason talk about this?
VC-
I have seen it on much greater scales in small towns, and small town America is repub country.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjkCrfylq-E
Letterman's McCain monologue
I have to admit, if Hillary did get the VP nod after Oct 2nd I wouldn't cry.
Inky-
Gotta agree, this could well look like 2004 and the leader now never loses the lead to election day.
Good day for Obama overall. Lead seems to have stabilized. What the heck is up with McCain suspending his campaign anyway?
This is funny:
McCain has Dementia, will suspend his campaign
Romney VP?
I just can't believe that anybody would actually fall for this.
The SUSA poll is helter skelter and garbage. We don't *really* know how this plays but I see it as remarkably desperate.
"Gotta agree, this could well look like 2004 and the leader now never loses the lead to election day."
That's how I've been describing it all along. It *seems* close, but really it isn't.
But lately it doesn't even seem that close. If McCain loses ground on this latest gambit, we start to resemble 1996 more than anything.
DARIO look under "off topic" on my forum.
"If she did well, then this has to be a whole crazy poll changer and McCain's internals must look scary bad."
Well, I wouldn't say she did *well*.
I wrote my thoughts out fully on my blog, I'll copy them here. The last line is where I am with it.
--
I just watched the CBS interview by Katie Couric of Sarah Palin. Lots of folks are saying this was a "disaster" for Palin -- some going so far as to claim it was the reason behind McCain's stunt today -- but unless there's more to the interview that I didn't see, I think she handled herself just fine. The Gibson interview I thought was a crash-and-burn, but I didn't see anything too bad here.
Even at the end when Couric cornered her on McCain's history of regulation, well... Obviously she is clueless on that, as she is on most subjects. But all politicians sometimes get caught not knowing the answer to something and her answer was cute, even disarming. She definitely has a charismatic manner about her and I certainly understand the comments some Alaskans have made that she has a tendency to put men "under a spell". (Rather ironic, considering her former church pastor!)
Bottom line: she's set her own bar so low that I thought she cleared this one.
It'sd official, McCain's campaign suspension was a ploy - you don't create talking points to hand out to your campaign to discuss the suspension of your campaign. Here are the talking points:
• To address our nation's crisis, John McCain will suspend his campaign and return to Washington. He has spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of his decision and has asked Senator Obama to join him. The campaign is suspending its advertising and fundraising.
• John McCain is calling on the President to convene a meeting with the leadership of both houses of Congress, including himself and Senator Obama.
• John McCain is directing his campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on Presidential debates to delay Friday night's debate until action has been taken to address this crisis.
• It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem. This is a time to put our country first. We must meet as Americans, not Democrats or Republicans, and we must meet until this crisis is resolved.
• It has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration's proposal. He does not believe the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands, and we are running out of time.
• Last Friday, John McCain laid out his proposal and has discussed his priorities and concerns with the bill the Administration has put forward.
• America faces a historic crisis in our financial system, and we must pass legislation to address this crisis. If we do not, credit will dry up, with devastating consequences for our economy.
• John McCain is confident that before the markets open on Monday, we can achieve consensus on legislation that will stabilize our financial markets, protect taxpayers and homeowners and earn the confidence of the American people.
Colorado is now nothing but blue. That´s it pretty much. Virginia is a bonus, New Hampshire is expendable.
And to think that Americans think of themselves as the bastion of Democracy...
I take offense to that. I think no such thing. As I read, apparently Finland is the bastion of Democracy. Supposedly they're found to be the least corrupt government in the world. New Zealand is close.
BREAKING NEWS!!!
Leaked - McCain's mother sent a note to the Commission on Presidential Debates.
Here it is:
http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/6200/absenceexcusekd0.jpg
>>Vanessa; The SUSA poll is helter skelter and garbage
What do you mean...it was too quick to be meaningful?
Unfortunately she did not do as badly in the debate as I had expected from comments that I saw here and there.... the witch craft thing on Olberman though is so strange and I wonder how people will react to it... Bizarre and I cannot imagine the spin if it was some other canidate. Mc Cain looks like he could use a blessing as he is spooked these days
So does today's shift in percentage points represent McCain doing better, or just a move towards 50-50 because of uncertainty, and therefore unpredictability?
This suspension of McCain's presidential campaign is strange. Will this actually work? I believe there are two outcomes.
1. It COULD keep the race where it is, with the McCain camp knowing any further loss in the polls and it's over.
2. People will see this as a ploy of such a large magnitude, canceling the debates will be insulting to many Americans as they don't even agree with bailout in the first place. With news out that he is NY right now, where is the urgency to get back to Washington to figure this out?
Any thoughts?
The Hill is reporting that the senate and Paulson have got an agreement.
Too late McCain. Historically bad gimmick you tried today.
Barney Franks has been on the cable shows today saying a deal is almost done and that the last thing they need is for the politics of the campaign to be brought in now.
What Letterman tonight. He lets McCain have it.
Chris Mathews is making a biased but interesting point. The McCain campaign runs Razzle Dazzle, do we want 8 years of Razzle Dazzle, haven't we had 8 years of Razzle Dazzle? I mean isn't this Bush. God Damnit, if we fall for that again I'm going to go crazy. Surely we are smarter than that. I mean, can't we talk about the issues? PLEASE!
No, it wasn't a critical failure. It wasn't exactly reassuring, either. The problem isn't that she couldn't think of examples so much as how she arrived there.
I'm not sure how many more critically thinking independents are out there to be swayed, but any more mistakes and this will really stick.
Almost all of the ground McCain has lost seems to be because he has gone from tied to way down among college-educated whites. She had better shine at the debate next Thursday.
"So does today's shift in percentage points represent McCain doing better, or just a move towards 50-50 because of uncertainty, and therefore unpredictability?"
When Obama had a sharp uptake, there was a possibility that it would go on forever (the model doesn't know if it's just a good week or if we had a live boy/dead girl scenario). When it leveled off, it started to discount those scenarios.
"So does today's shift in percentage points represent McCain doing better, or just a move towards 50-50 because of uncertainty, and therefore unpredictability?"
My guess: it is the model moving back to more reasonable figures after overcompensating for Obama's big move last week.
This model appears to always want to project current swings into the future. So when Obama started surging in the polls, it extrapolated that this would continue. Obama leveled off, so the model regressed back towards the mean.
"She had better shine at the debate next Thursday."
Oh man, I'm crying from the laughter. Whew... ok, I'm better now.
I have to laugh at the irony of Barney Frank being a real leader in this crisis and John "HeMan" McCain acting like a frightened child.
Re: McCain's suspension.
I'm not so much it was a ploy as a political miscalculation - McCain is fond of the big gesture and this might have seemed to him to be a way to show his seriousness about the problem.
The AEI guy at Politico is right; it simply isn't appropriate to the situation given that rapid progress is being made on the rescue bill.
Why did McCain really suspend his campaign? I list his motivations and potential consequences, both pro and con, on my blog Heartless and Brainless. Click the banner to watch Sarah Palin's interview with Katie Couric!
Obama meets Bush tomorrow.
field,
I'm happy to have been helpful. I was rather confused as well earlier today when the numbers first got posted on Pollster, but somebody here on 538 clarified the situation.
The comments sections can get pretty long, but they are actually a bit shorter and easier to manage than a week ago (the previous thread excepted), as long as the impostors stay away.
Most of all, unless ron fournier really greases himself up for McCain, I see the press responding to this cynically.
Well at least I think they will.
The media has been spinning this all day, fairly balanced. But the consensus is that McCain tried a hail mary and the American people are tired of that now. They want sound and direct judgment.
The basic that a deal will be reached before McCain even gets his hand up to vote will be telling to a lot of independents that it was political posturing.
Country First or Election First Vannesa?
Charles said: "Even at the end -- all politicians sometimes get caught not knowing the answer to something and her answer was cute, even disarming."
"Cute"? "disarming?" Gasp! Please, no, say it aint so...
Charles, you have just fallen under the spell of a witch.
I hear they still exist. ;)
I'm deeply concerned that this may play well.
shadowguidex said...
"She had better shine at the debate next Thursday."
Oh man, I'm crying from the laughter. Whew... ok, I'm better now."
Yeah, I consider myself a pretty good judge of people and I'm not optimistic. She'll fight through it, but still... I wonder how aggressive Joe Biden is planning to be at the debates. She might self-destruct, but he could easily get dinged with a few silly gaffes, too.
Nate, according to pollster.com, the new West poll of NV was sponsored/conducted by 3 Democratic organizations. So it shold be omitted from your charts.
You guys know how fun this campaign is?
Do yourselves a favor and do *not* read any financial forums. It will make you very, very sad.
The message McCain wanted to put out today:
I am above partisan politics and I am the hero who will put politics aside to work on the crisis.
The message McCain actually put out today:
That crisis that I said isn't a crises is a crisis and when things are tough I need a time out. Can't do two things at once. And even though it's a huge crisis that needs me, it didn't need me for over a whole week but now I must attend to it NOW. But not today NOW. Maybe tomorrow NOW. I will deal with big crisis as soon as I finish meeting with a political fund raiser today and make a political speech tomorrow.
Why plays well Vannesa?
Majority of americans wants debate.
The thing with the Couric interview was that Palin couldn't respond to the homeowner moratorium on foreclosure question. She really didn't seem like she understood it. Couric tried to steer her back, but I think she just didn't get it. She was trying to stick to talking points but apparently forgot them and could think on her feet at all
Vanessa, this is not playing well.
Even NRO writer has said it just looks like a gimmick.
Calling for a "time out" just sounded ridiculous.
Watch McCain get skewered on late night shows.
vanessa, I love ya but please chill. Every little incident has you chewing off your fingernails.
"Nate, according to pollster.com, the new West poll of NV was sponsored/conducted by 3 Democratic organizations. So it shold be omitted from your charts."
No, that is not Nate criterion. The question is whether it is an internal poll from a campaign. He does not include internal polls because campaigns often do not release them unless the numbers favor their candidate. A number of polls have party affiliations, however, which Nate counts regularly. Strategic Vision and PPP are the two that come to mind immediately.
that's one SUSA poll.
Majority of American's want a debate but that doesn't say what most American's actually think of McCain's decision today.
Vanessa--this is not going to play well at most it will be neutral. McCain cannot be the one hero who saves the day because there have been many people working on this for days. they are going to stay quiet? don't think so
Susa poll is crap.
It was so fast that most probably didn't even know about McCain's statement and the poll did not inform them of it, just asked if they supported suspending debates
The reason internal polls are not used is because they are selectively reported, not because of the affiliation.
PorDem said...
The basic that a deal will be reached before McCain even gets his hand up to vote will be telling to a lot of independents that it was political posturing.
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Again, McCain shows he's out of touch with issues at home.
Yeh you guys are calmer than I. The obama campaign is smart and adaptable. I should have more faith but I am convinced that the Republicans will find a way even through the most absurd means.
I hope the Media doesn't fall for this.
I agree with lat, this is a political play for McCain. He´s down in the polls and he need some thinks like this.
McCain shares on intrade down to 42.8... worse than the Dow.
I think this "razzle dazzle" was sniffed out by the defense.
vanessa-
Don't be concerned much, this too will pass. His play isn't receiving any GOOD coverage, at best it is meeting questions and neutrality, and at worst it is meeting skepticism and ridicule. The tenor of the media response isn't positive, therefore the results will not be positive. We're good. This isn't a time when we need to huddle together for warmth and safety, although possible for fun instead ;)
It´s an hypocrital play.
And i´m not an Obama supporter.
The best form for talk about the crisis on economy is in the debates.
It´s a joke.
If we're going to use football analogies, I'd say McCain fumbled and there was a pileup. It looked like Obama recovered, but until the pile clears we won't know for sure.
McCain was in talks with Obama to make a joint statement and then Pulled this out of his ...
Obama was on the high ground and McCain tried to stab him in the back.
realistxxx said...
Again, McCain shows he's out of touch with issues at home.
................
I believe that sentiment is starting to hit home. We are in a domestic mess this time around. Unlike 2004 where it was a foreign policy mess.
Also as it pertains to the SUSA poll. It's not crap, it's a snapshot of the feeling that 40 days out from the election, a campaign is suspending operations for a few days, is scary to many voters. Obama won this round with the message that Presidents have to deal with more than one thing at a time. Best case for John is that it stops the current polling trend.
any good football out there in Williston?
September 24, 2008 8:30 PM
Blogger Virginia Conservative said...
Fred-
Fraud happens on both sides, but tends to cancel eachother out.
September 24, 2008 8:31 PM
The mere fact that you accept these frauds in our Democracy shows how fucked our system is.
Also - cite a source for that little bogus "fact". I know of no bigger fraud that Florida in 2000.
SUSA's poll is not going to be particularly accurate, but McCain lost the suspend question 79-14 and lost the debate postponement question 88-10. There is no weighting that can account for that. That is a horrible margin.
I'm not sure how big of a permanent knock on him this will ultimately be, especially if a bill gets produced tomorrow at 10 AM as The Hill is reporting. It will look like he made a mountain out of a mole hill, but he did spur Republicans to come to a quick agreement.
pollster.com lists the New West NV poll as being done for a democratic campaign.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjkCrfylq-E
In case you guys missed it, here is Letterman.
Williston High School's team isn't bad.
A lot of the little farming towns have their own high school, but they can only play 9-man football because they don't have enough kids. I'd never seen 9-man before, it's cool. Some of the schools are so small they have to team up with 1-3 other schools just to field a team.
Mark Blumenthal says
Paraphrasing... That SUSA poll was crap.
Be sure to read the comments about NATE
I'm not quite sure voters are looking at this solution as a partisan measure. Both sides have gone to a great length to say it's a bipartisan bill that has to be passed. So I'm not quite sure that Republicans with the force of John McCain will get credit as neither will Obama as forcing Democratic leaders to.
The message is being cemented that McCain is out of touch..by his own cause. Palin is looking atrocious and as an Obama supporter im not getting comfortable yet, but right now it's back to Obama's campain to lose.
There are some benefits for McCain with the suspension. He gets to save some cash while being the story of the day.
If somebody called you yesterday and asked if you thought the debate should be postponed then what would you say?
The respondants are not representative, but more then than they did not necesarily know what was happening
Go Quinnipiac Bobcats.
Holy crap. McCain *really* pissed off letterman.
Vanessa/Vernon 2012?
Letterman was awesome!
I understand his ire. McCain canceled because of the emergency, but then went and taped an interview with Couric instead
Okay, I just went to pollster.com to refresh my recollection and there ia listing of 3 conductors of the New West NV poll: Project New West (D), Myers Research (D), and Grove Insight (D). Though no NV Democratic campaign is actually listed, with that lineup the odds are 97% it was an internal campaign poll. Also, there is no link on pollster.com to any actual poll report. Discard it.
MrInsight: which campaign? The only thing I see is a (D), which simply means that is a Democratic-affiliated pollster. I can understand why you want Nate to ignore the poll, but it meets his criteria for inclusion, unless you can provide evidence to the contrary.
yeh The Inkstain wasn't that just vicious?
Well he lied to him.
I believe that any pollster asking if a campaign should be suspended or a debate to be cancelled is a fair question. I don't think you need McCain's or Obama's name attached to that question. Going through peoples minds is that the world doesn't stop in a crisis. You can't call a timeout to catch your breath. That's the sentiment from voters.
And McCain is speaking at the Clinton Shin dig tomorrow. Obviously his priorities are in order.
1. Clinton Shin dig
2. Katie Couric
3. Emergency bailout
4. Debate if time
The second MI poll -- the one that showed Obama up by 10 -- that came out today was provocative. And I mean PROVOCATIVE! It was conducted by pollster Bernie Porn. Yes, that's right, Porn's poll stripped out all of the BS and told the naked, stimulating truth. I knew that the poll's lead for Obama looked unusually large, but now I'm wondering if it was because of implants or if it was real. Unbelievably, the write-up in the Detroit News includes a reaction from MI resident Rick Love, though it is not clear that Love has any relationship with Porn.
Just thought I'd have a little fun with that...
I'm not a regular Letterman viewer. Does he always fly off the handle?
I mean, he was composed, but he was definitely, definitely angry.
Never have I seen him do that.
"I believe that any pollster asking if a campaign should be suspended or a debate to be cancelled is a fair question. I don't think you need McCain's or Obama's name attached to that question. Going through peoples minds is that the world doesn't stop in a crisis. You can't call a timeout to catch your breath. That's the sentiment from voters."
That's fine for the moral question of whether he should do it.
But for the question of how it will play in the polls? People will react differently with names and parties attached.
But I am not a regular viewer either.
Did you see Obama on Letterman?
Dave is "in the tank"
what's your hunch about how it plays in the polls Inkstain
I think they should schedule the vote tomorrow while McCain is at the CGF
Sounds like ome RepubliCONS are giving up. Too early to quit on your team guys. I think it's over but I'm a Dem.
"what's your hunch about how it plays in the polls Inkstain"
It's so hard to say. I'm a numbers and history guy. You look at the numbers, you compare to historical comps.
We don't have a good historical comp for this, so I have such a hard time saying.
McCain's going to have to play this high-wire act where if a deal gets passed tomorrow, he gets to take credit for it by somehow inspiring it to happen through his tough talk.
IT's Over for McCain!!
Dubya has done him in!
Crisis, Severe Recession, $700 Billion Bailout from McBush!!
HOLY SHIT!!! did you guys look at Sarah Palin's anointment on video?
@inkstain
"Does he always fly off the handle?"
A friend of mine worked updating the cbs.com website years ago. He put an image of Leno on a promo for the Emmies or the People's Choice Awards, don't remember which.
Letterman dedicated half the show to the subject, even calling the CEO of CBS, live on television, making him apologize for the error.
sedi, Michigalanders loves Obama.
Upps.
Lettermans reaction is absolutely perfect.
"HOLY SHIT!!! did you guys look at Sarah Palin's anointment on video?"
I'm a member of an Assembly of God church. That's nothing unusual.
Inkstain,
You are right. But the fact is that it wasn't meant for that. Mark Blumenthal said, it would have been different had republicans known it was John McCain. As independents are still selecting the candidate they will cast a vote for, it's a daunting choice McCain made. The polls tomorrow will reflect that I believe.
Still am sticking to the point I made earlier in that, McCain tried to shape the game AGAIN. People are starting to see it. Will NOT help his numbers, may not hurt MAY not, but won't help
I am not sure I understand the statement that congress has a "deal complete" on the Bailout. They just showed a democrat from NJ and a Republican from Texas, both saying they would not vote for any bill that is unclear as the current version.
It is hard to tell if this is a PhotoOp, a meeting to twist arms (more of CNN reporters believe this) or actually work on the bill.
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