It looks like Barack Obama may have gotten his convention bounce after all:
A large number of national polls have come out within the past 24-48 hours, most of which had conducted a survey close enough to the beginning of the Democratic convention to provide for a direct comparison. These polls show Obama having gained between 2 and 8 points since before the convention began, or an average of 4.4 points. Although this is slightly below the average convention bounce of 6 points, it is a pretty reasonable result considering that the Republicans had named their VP candidate immediately following the Democratic convention, a circumstance which had never occurred before. Moreover, the internals of these polls show Obama gaining ground among Clinton supporters, a group of votes that John McCain is likely to have a difficult time getting back.
(Note: I have not included the Zogby Interactive poll in the table above -- this was the same poll that had Obama winning Arizona, and winning North Carolina by 8 points. But it is "officially" included for purposes of our model).
Still, it is imperative for Democrats not to get too giddy. A bounce is usually just a bounce, and the Republicans will have three nights of rebuttal tonight through Thursday to attempt to generate some momentum of their own. The Republicans rallied the base with the selection of Sarah Palin; having done so, they need to find messaging during their convention that will appeal to moderates and independents.
9.02.2008
Today's Polls, 9/2
@ 2:41 PM
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The one that really gets me is the Rasmussen tracker. Ras favors Republicans, yet today Obama is over 50% for the first time, and Palin's negatives are rising fast (they've gone up 10 points since she was announced).
I think Obama's bounce is coming as much from Palin as from the convention.
Sorry for the repost, but it was at the tale end of the last thread.
To those questioning my estimated individual numbers, your points are well taken. Hell I have 100 (57+43) for Rasmussen and 86 (48+38) for Gallup, but that's what I worked out. When dealing with only whole numbers, no officially released individual day totals and wildly swinging polls, this is the best this non-statistician can do. It is meant as guide to get a very rough indication of what the daily numbers could be. With that said, here is my prediction forecast for the right-leaning posters on Friday:
"Obama's support is eroding while McCain's is gaining steam. This is the first poll to take into account the speech given by Sarah Palin on Wednesday night. They love her! Look for the polls to be tied tomorrow with McCain taking the lead early next week and onward to his electoral vote landside in November. POW!"
The facts: Today was a great day for Obama in the trackers. Even with the admitted "errors" in my methodology it safe to assume that in order to move Rasmussen 3 points in one day on a three-day tracker the spread would have had to increase by nine points in a day! Add that to the existing +3 Obama was enjoying and the gap between Obama and McCain for yesterday was around 12 - I have it at 14. That "outlier" (even us most ardent Obama supporters can agree on that - I think) will fall off on Friday and undoubtedly result in a decrease for Obama and an increase for McCain. Now, I'm not saying the polls won't move from the RNC convention revving up and the speech from Palin, but at least half of any movement is caused by the great numbers from yesterday no longer being factored into the tracker!
We now return you to your normally scheduled topics.
http://www.bostonpie.com/DailyTracker.htm
It may just be a bounce...but it is difficult to see McCain taking significant leads in the polls after the Republican convention.
Palin consolidates the base but should drive away moderates...surely the Republicans can't have their cake and eat it too!
Burning books and sharing a lobbyist with Jack Abramoff? Would that appeal to moderates?
I'm sure somehow this rejection of McPOWs judgment is good news for him.
Interesting that these numbers are including reaction to the Palin pick.
I think Olympia Snow would have been a much sharper play at Clinton supporters.
I had attempted to come up with some ways for McCain to build some solidity in his numbers after the bubble/bounce in the last post. If the economy gets marginally better, it helps McCain.
Neither candidate has the market on the truly independent, middle of the road voter yet. The TIMOTR voter, like in 2000 and 2004, will tip the scales. Obama can get it if all things stay the same. McCain has to earn it.
I wonder whether the downplaying of the Republican convention will hurt or help McCain's bounce. I can't see GWB's appearance tonight coming off too well for McCain.
The bounce spread is nice, but yeah, it's the number of polls that show Obama at/over 50% that have me pumped. I don't think there's going to be a big correction in McCain's favor post-RNC. Palin has already generated and killed the McCain bump. Unless he gives the speech of the century (unlikely), I just can't see McCain's numbers getting any better before the debates.
I disagree with you that this is just a bounce. The increase in support is primarily coming from Democrats, not from wishy-washy low-info Independent voters. The previously undecided Democrats have finally committed for whatever reasons after holding out for so long, and they are not likely to go back.
There might be a small fade, but I definitely think Obama has made at least some permanent gains.
good stuff - as always
thanks!
mike-
TIMOTR voters won't be the only wild card on Nov. 4th. There isn't a poll to measure the Obama ground game.
I would note that Obama was ticking up in most tracking polls before he announced Biden as his pick; could that have been the result choices firming up going into the fall?
Looks like we have a number of bounces.
1. Biden "anti-bounce" due to disgruntled Hillary supporters. This is what led to McCain having that 2 point lead in Gallup last week.
2. Michelle, Hillary, and Bill bounce. This bounce led to Obama recovering, getting back the lead, and going up about 3 points.
3. Sarah Palin Pre-Emptive Bounce. This is the hardest one, because we saw no immediate benefit for Obama due to his speech on Thursday; Palin may have delayed him from going higher.
4. Palin anti-bounce / Obama speech bounce. Now, we are seeing the effects of Obama's strong convention, as well as all of the Palin noise, result in leads from 6 to 8 points for Obama.
Its important to note that Obama is hitting some of his highest numbers ever. I don't think he will ever get materially past 50 or 51; a lot of the "not sures" will be people not happy with either Obama and McCain (culturally conservative working class) and may not vote, which will give Obama a bigger piece of a smaller pie.
Will Walker
That would be the choice of a thoughtful judicious person.
Nate, et al:
"RealClearPolitics has confirmed from Susan Page at USA Today and Frank Newport at Gallup that the poll released yesterday (Monday, September 1) showing Barack Obama with a 50-43 lead over John McCain is not the stand alone USA Today/Gallup poll, but rather two days worth of data (Saturday, August 30 & Sunday, August 31 ) from Gallup's Daily Tracking poll."
Any effect here?
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/09/a_note_about_the_latest_usa_to.html
"The Republicans . . . need to find messaging during their convention that will appeal to moderates and independents."
What on earth could that be? If they just attack Obama, they'll drive the mod/ind voters away. McCain's so-called "program" is essentially fluff: no universal health care (tax credits instead); extend the Bush tax cuts that only benefit the wealthiest 1-2%; stay in Iraq (at $10 billion a month) until Hell freezes over, and worry about Afghanistan some other time; overturn Roe v. Wade. Did I miss anything? Oh, yeah, teach only abstinence in sex-ed classes.
This means nothing until next week.
"I think Olympia Snow would have been a much sharper play at Clinton supporters."
Olympia Snow wouldn't have fired up the base though.
I'm cautiously optimistic here. It's looking a lot better than I expected in early September, but there still is a mini-convention left.
The problem I see now is that I don't see how the Republicans attack Obama at the convention. They had two approaches - Obama is inexperienced and Obama has some unsavory connections - but both of them can be thrown back at Palin. I guess the attempt will be positive definition and hoping that some of that makes it through the all Palin, all the time coverage of the media.
Of course, Palin can turn this all around tomorrow. Her first few speeches didn't show too many signs of having that ability but you can be sure that the Republican speechwriters have been working hard all week to get it just right. I wonder if they'll scrub the bridge to nowhere references now in addition to the excised Clinton one.
The other issue in play is the fact that this week will need to be used to introduce Palin, rather than attack Obama.
We've seen this before with HRC's campaign--when you stop attacking Obama, he starts running away with the game.
I like it when Ohio and Virginia are blue enough to detect it without squinting :)
The latest ARG poll for 8/30-9/1 also shows Obama with a 6 point lead at 49 to 23 with 8 undecided.
finally. thank you nate. im a staunch obama supporter. but i fiercely object to the politico.com feel coverage (and therefore lack of) we've had. of course, there was no polls and i must say some of them were quite entertaining and fired up virginia cons. but i was worried that it may have been a little too successful and would perhaps convince you to let go of the statistical analysis intersped with political analysis. but thank God we still got this one. hopefully once things get back to normal, we'll be resuming what makes this site great and appealing compared to anything else there's out there. tx
I only question Nate's assertion that the newest polling was a convention bump, since the Palin pick stepped on that big time. The interesting thing about this, is that it comes AFTER Palin's pick and the PAlin Place MSM soap opera. I would argue that Obama is getting a PALIN bounce from Hillary Dems and Indys, disgusted at McCain's nakedly cynical and pandering choice. If the numbers are close to this on 9/15, we can conclude that the combination of the Clinton convention speeches, Biden pick, Obama speech and Palin pick were what made this election non-competitive. Of course, there is always a Code Red or Osama tape to try and stir the pot, but we may be seeing what this race is going to look like for the next 2 months, Obama up 5-10 nationally. If that is the case, the election is over. Well, this prediction, like all the others on here, is probably worth the cyberpaper it is written on, but we shall see...
While I agree Snow would be a better choice if the idea is to appeal to women and moderates, I doubt she would accept the offer. They aren't in the same part of the GOP world. Plus she knows if they lose, she is through in Maine as well.
The other Gallup release today about Clinton supporters is encouraging as well. Since the convention, the number of Hillary voters likely to vote for Obama jumped from 70% to 81% and the number of Hillary voters certain to vote for Obama jumped from 47% to 65%.
I suspect that's more lasting than a bump. I can't see McCain winning them back.
Correct, Will Walker. Many have attempted to quantify the ground game. It's like trying to quantify the effect that defense plays in baseball - many theories, no laws.
With a structural advantage and a superb ground effort, Obama should be up more. He's not, because of doubt and fear, primarily.
Given the most recent available state margins, this would put Obama ahead not only in Montana and Florida, but also Virginia and North Carolina. (And ironically, Alaska too.)
I estimate that if we had current state polls, a current EV snapshot estimate of the race would be Obama 343 EV, McCain 195 EV (95% confidence interval Obama 324-362 EV). Read about it here.
Either Dawolf or DMC in FLA said they thought Gallup would have Obama at or above 50% today.
Whoever is was, tip of the hat for calling it!
unertl said...
I disagree with you that this is just a bounce. The increase in support is primarily coming from Democrats, not from wishy-washy low-info Independent voters.
Well thats just about the most insane thing I ever heard. The problem with both democrats and republicans is that they blindly argue a point beyond any threshold of reason or common sense. It's this kind of intellectually deficient commentary that keeps the public disinterested in politics. Independent are neither wishy-washy or low-info - they are actually free thinkers who evaluate and decide on a candidate after fully weighting the alternatives. Anyone who ALWAYS votes for the same party is not someone's opinion who I will trust.
With a near 7 point lead, its really hard to see a shortened and distracted RNC providing enough bounce to overcome this. McCain needs a big bounce to get close again and then needs to go 3 for 3 in the debates if he needs be within 2 points by Nov 1st.
Virginia Conservative said...
This means nothing until next week.
Nah, we'll know for sure by Saturday.
I'm betting that Obama averages +6 (+/-1) for all of September in Gallup. Any takers? Hey, speaking of which, it's time for the Rasmussen Bullshit Index (aka RBI). What % of the population was supposedly Democratic in August, Scott? What's your modifier going to be in September?
(For those of you who don't know, the RBI went down 2 in July, which meant all results in August were two points in favor of Republicans).
Rasmussen's #'s have to be considered against what they claim to be a shifting party ID in reweighting the polls they release.
see @
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/party_affiliation/summary_of_party_affiliation
----------------------------------------------
In August Scott R. added +1.6% to the GOP, and dropped DEM by -.3% to close the gap to only 5.7%...
-------------------------------------
Summary of Party Affiliation
September 1, 2008
Republican Democrat Other R - D Quarterly
2008
Aug 33.2% 38.9% 28.0% -5.7%
Jul 31.6% 39.2% 29.2% -7.6%
Jun 31.5% 41.0% 27.5% -9.5% -9.9%
May 31.6% 41.7% 26.6% -10.1%
Apr 31.4% 41.4% 27.2% -10.0%
Mar 32.1% 41.1% 26.8% -9.1% -8.1%
Feb 31.8% 41.5% 26.7% -9.7%
Jan 33.1% 38.7% 28.2% -5.6%
----------------------------------
so by their estimates, GOP is back to par as of last January... hhhmmm
but further party ID adjustments favoring the GOP are on the way for RR:
"Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated."
That will be another DEM -.9% & GOP +.5% = net gain of 1.4& GOP for the September poll data from RR...
-----------------------------------------
new release by RR - 'Partisan Trends' analysis @ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends
TIMOTR? can anyone explain please? I'm not yet totally versed in the world of crazy political acronyms. ;)
I don't know about anyone else, but Mule Rider sure convinced me!
Obama's leads are still the result of a bounce and are not yet part a fundamental shift in the election.
Now that the GOP has their convention under way, they will get 3 days worth of national infomercials. Only Hanna could really untrack plans at this point.
Tempting as it is to salivate at the latest polls, this is like trying to predict a verdict before the defense calls a witness.
Unless Palin makes a killer speech this week (and stranger things have happened) the repub convention will be fighting against the negative Palin noise all week and the best they can hope for is for the convention and Plain to neutralize each other.
Yeah, Palin will have to give a kick ass speech.
NATE
time for moderator or allowing users to selectively block abusive posters.
please take a poll of your users on this topic similar to that for the 'bounce' adjustment.
thanks
Mule Rider:
It's okay, little buddy. We know it hurts. Ride it out.
actually, independents are wishy-washy (which is why they're independents), and low-info (most them). they aren't particularly impressed with either party. They are more easily influenced by the parties to vote for them. and if there's a scandal, they withdraw their support more rapidly, because they haven't quite gotten a feel for that said candidate's character. Now are there independents who by some miraculous feat just read through the news clutter, listen to limbaugh and neil cavuto and the next hour listen to olbermann and read the dailykos, drop by politico.com to read some gossip by ben smith, and read the last updates from mark halperin without getting influenced by all the bull? i think not. Most independents are not taken by politics. they wait and over time form an opinion. insist on getting the policy but get influenced more by negative ads. independents are wishy-washy and low-info.
TIMOTR = Truly independent, middle of the road
What a wild election cycle this has been.
I think the polls are showing a degree of "Palin fatigue" from the incessant media coverage. Once everything cools down a bit the numbers will shift back towards the mean. Obama will probably still be ahead, though, barring some fantastic speeches this week.
as opposed to RINO & PUMA
I think McCain has one real chance. If Obama has a terrible night October 15th, the night of the foreign policy debate, it's also the last debate. So, it's the last time everybody will be watching. I don't see it happening. But, I think that's his one shot. Most of the undecided that have pushed Obama over 50%, were Democrats. The reason for the lack of a huge bounce is because the country is so polarized. Most of what's left of undecideds could probably be won over by MCCain, but he's probably losing about 50-45 right now. He'll have to flip some of Obama's support. Seems unlikely.
The anticipation is certainly building to see those state polls!
If this is a solidifying of the base though, that would seem to increase the chances of an electoral/popular mismatch. If Obama does get more support from his base, it might be happening in the coastal states and urban areas he already has pinned down. Suppose he gets a much larger turnout in New York, Illinois and California but for whatever reason can't close the deal in either Colorado or Ohio.
That wouldn't be a happy election cycle for anyone.
Palin should(and has to) take on these stories about her head-on in her speech. If she comes across as evasive or dishonest in her speech and just gives a boilerplate type speech, it's going to get worse for her.
"He'll have to flip some of Obama's support. Seems unlikely."
That's what the Rovian smear campaign will be for. And it's going to come at us soon -- bigtime.
This is far from over.
No, the last debate is on domestic policy now. They switched. I have no clue why McCain consented to that, but he did.
I agree that even if Palin's alleged scandals are all put down, she'll need to be at the top of her game to make it a wash now.
I'm thinking all the acrobatics McCainies have been doing to argue she's experienced enough will be discerned by the undecideds as just too coo-coo. McCain might have rallied the base, but I think the undecideds and indies are about to give up on him.
One thing the Gallup polls proves beyond any shadow of a doubt is that Obama's World Tour was a huge success. The problem was that Obama and his advisers Axelrod/Plouffe got complacent, took their foot off the gas, and didn't capitalize on great headlines by hitting the campaign trail and attacking McCain on the stump and with negative ads. That's when Obama started to dip in the polls.
I guess will begin to see real numbers, state polls, again around this time next week.
Congrats to you Obama fans for holding an above 50% for a few days.
It remains to be seen if that is just a pure trend, that dosent trend back downward.
There have been a few adjustment to the model in only two weeks.
I'm not accussing Nate of cooking the books. If anything it appears that the MOE for individual states has gone UP over the last two weeks in addition to Obamas EV projection.
The MOE itself IMO is a strong indication of just how close this race still is.
Well at least after "W's" speech tonight will have something real to tar and feather each other over!!!
Now share and play nice
together... you/us wankers.
Some independents are also third party people (libertarians, greens) who decide based on which major party will hurt their beliefs less.
As for Palin's speech, I'm trying to figure out what she can say. If she gives something similar to what she did in Dayton - look at my wacky Alaskan family, John McCain is great, I stopped the bridge to nowhere, Clinton voters choose me please - that will be viewed in a different light on at least two parts of the speech, three if Clinton were to get booed again.
The other approach would be to talk about issues but she's not an economic or foreign policy powerhouse (which won't really matter much since it'll be written for her) and she seems to be trying to not talk about how pro-life she is. She could go on about drilling/energy policy and that should play reasonably well (although, she does have her veto of renewable fuels to deal with).
If I were her speechwriter, I'd go for a complete attack. "They call me inexperienced, but at least I was in charge of a state. Obama would ruin this country! Stopping the war in Iraq would sell out our needs!" perhaps mixing it with how her family is under attack and that's just wrong and hope that she sells it. It could work and that's probably what I would do.
She cannot address the problems head-on. That would be suicidal. the charges involve trying to ban books from the town library, trying to fire the librarian when she refused to cave in, sharing a lobbyist with Jack Abramoff, supporting the 200 million dollar bridge, tampering with confidential files, lying to investigators, suppressing evidence, etc.
She cannot deal with this - she must act like none of it exists and try to fake her way through her speech. She will essentially have to lie and hope that nobody will call her on it. And then she is going to spend weeks avoiding reporters and media.
The best she can hope for is to put on the spunky moosekiller mask and act cute. It's a nightmare for McCain.
Although it's folly to fund a poll at 'halftime' like this, we certainly have a dearth of state polls to validate this Obama uptick.
We haven't heard from Iowa, Minn or Wisc in quite a while. I'm really curious if this bounce is truly working its way down to the states. We're making a lot of assumptions from national polls with smaller sample sizes than most of the state polls.
Alaska Independence Party (AIP) is the story that wins the election. Just like her lack of experience takes away one McCain attack, this support for seccessionist's takes away McCain's other path of support (patriotism). Palin is the perfect VP, if you are an Obama supporter.
dj-
People live in states, it is working it's way down down to states, the real question is "Does it stick?"
I start to get excited if Obama is up 5 a week from this Saturday.
There's a delay in Palin news - the first couple days, while all the nasty stuff was already clogging the tubes, MSM land was still singing the RNC official line.
That's just starting to break down. Palins negatives are going to go sky high in a week, if she hasn't gone back to the Republic of Alaska.
The fact that McIdiot picked Palin confirms that he's senile, lacks judgement and lack the experience and the intelligence to be commander in chief of the United States of America.
Being in an airplane and getting shot down and caught by the enemy and all of this after having graduated among the five last students of his school DOES NOT qualify you to anything.
At least I would expect the ones who weren't caught by the enemy to be qualified to do something NOT the ones who couldn't fly their airplanes, were too lazy to study their shit and flunked their studies.
Does anyone else have a problem viewing comments after about 200 have been posted?
If she goes the route of press avoidance, the VP debate will be all about her problems as that is what the moderator will ask. Another nightmare. Clean her up as best you can and send her to the lions for a weekend, it is there only shot. They have to get the bad press out of the way as long before the election as posible.
They also better have a good lawyer in AK that can quash or delay the troopergate report until after the election.
I fit a pollster.com type curve to the polling data, and found that a jump of about 4% (with standard error 1.6%) is about right. The details are below, but the take home message is that the bump appears to be real.
http://neoplasticicicle.blogspot.com/2008/08/did-obama-get-bump.html
Nicholas-
Click on "respond to comments" and then read them in the pop up box.
Needless to add that McIdiot got his degree from Annapolis thanks to his dad and NOT his abilities othewise he would have miserably failed.
Obama GRADUATED FROM HARVARD after having worked hard.
The investigative reporters from major papers and magazines landed in Alaska on Sunday and Monday. The first interviews are starting to come out.But it will take until Friday/Saturday to get to the indepth stuff.
They will dig up the librarian and ask which books Palin wanted burned. They will interview people close to Palin's sister and get the deal on the domestic violence accusations - was the tasering real or not? They will cover the lavish 15 million dollar sports complex and the sales tax raise Palin crammed through.
This is all going to look like a freakish replay of Twin Peaks episode by Sunday. The weirdness and the sheer tawdriness will cause moderates to shrink away in horror.
Nicolas-
Sorry, the link is "Post a comment"
I don't wanna get tooo excited just yet. But I think the bounce is good news. It fundamentally has the potential to be a close election still. But unless Obama somehow disqualifies himself I don't think McCain can win except in a virtual dead heat. He needs to scramble for every vote he can right now.
I think that what is happening in the polls is a result of announcing Palin a day to soon. The right did't get there teeth into Obama's speech. A speech like that does need push back.
Also the press got a free day on Monday, thanks to Gustav, to write about Palin, and the McCain campaign fed the beast as well by releasing the statement about Bristol Palin.
Brad-
It just feels like the national polls are swayed by what leads the Today show.
The state polls are swayed by who has the most yard signs and bumper stickers.
National polls feel very loose right now. The state polls are something to really brag about.
If next week's new polls consistently show Obama leading Ohio and Virginia by several points and solidifying the upper MW, then the fat lady sings.
This secondary bounce Obama is getting a few days after his big speech is surprising. Maybe it's anti-Palin, maybe not. But as of now, I'm still filing this bounce under easy come, easy go.
Does anyone else have a problem viewing comments after about 200 have been posted?
Yepp! almost every day!
"This is all going to look like a freakish replay of Twin Peaks episode by Sunday. The weirdness and the sheer tawdriness will cause moderates to shrink away in horror."
I agree completely, and the GREEEAATTTT thing is that he cannot drop her or he pises of James "Nutball Christian" Dobson and his ilk. He is truly in the ultimate no win right now. If he dropped her, it is unlikely any of the top other VP selections would even take the offer of the VP slot.
Amazing...
We haven't heard from Ohio in eleven days. The keystone of the election and we haven't heard from them.
dj-
I think part of this bounce sticks as it is anti-Palin and not just a convention bounce, but you are right. I trust nothing for about another ten days.
If Obama is beyond the margin of error in Ohio or Florida in the next state poll we will leave apprehension mode and enter sheer panic.
Palin has actively sued to get polar bears removed from the Endangered Species Act.
I see an advertising campaign here. Fluffy polar bears. Sneering Palin. Cynical sure but....
Polls in Indiana,Missouri,and North Carolina has narrowed.
Obama increased his lead in IA,NM,WI,OR,NJ.
Question for all.
Just to keep it interesting polling wise.
Though Nate dosent include them in the model has anyone seen local (to your area)Chamber of Commerce type polls/ leaked party internals etc.
While no where near as accurate as even the much beloved Zogby Interactive, at least we can go over numbers.
Just a thought.. I'll keep my eyes out here in South Florida... provided the power is still on in a few days.
McCain has hired Rove's guy who called McCain's adopted kid his "black baby by a prostitute" in SC in 2000. If that ain't desparation nothing is.
Look for the supernegative ads on Obama. It is another long ball and I think it backfires, but...
McCain burns his only thing left before he dies...his credibility.
"This means nothing until next week."
Gosh, why do I seem to recall some conservative commenter crowing about how important it was that Obama hadn't made it to 50% yet…?
i wouldn't be so dismissive of her "babe-like" quality, as rush limbaugh puts it.
more notably, mccain's campaign manager just said that the election is not about the issue but about a composite of view of something... it's up on politico's jmart. and that is the most effective ad obama could put out there. but for some reason, i don't think his staff will be made aware of this. nor will they realize the potential to define mccain perpetually in this way.
i know. gossip. but what can i do? still waiting on the ground game analysis, and how the dem convention impacted colorado efforts.
Challenge for all:
Who will be the first to name one of the books Palin tried to get banned? Virtual kiss for the winner.
It´s important but the most important are the states polls.
Yes... if he is under 45% after the convention, Mac is going all in.
He has to bury the Palin stories under a mountain of attacks on Obama. His only road will be the lowest one - getting so outrageously nasty that media will be forced to stop Palin coverage to wonder at how vicious McCain has become.
He has to drive the negatives of both so sky-high only a handful of Americans want to vote.
nkpolitics1279: Which polls are you talking about?
nkpolitics1279 said...
"Polls in Indiana,Missouri,and North Carolina has narrowed.
Obama increased his lead in IA,NM,WI,OR,NJ."
Got a link?????
Nne consideration I haven't seen discussed here is the impact Palin will have on Barr/Keyes.
When the libertarian/constitutionalists learn of Palin's support of Buchanan, affiliation with the state's rights Alaska Independence Party, she's going to cut interest in Barr/Keyes in half.
Also, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico conservatives are bouncing off the walls with joy over her anti-DC cred.
He future son in law is a hockey playing "Fucking redneck" (his own words) who will kick your ass if you don't like it.
Palin should be sent to live in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania ... to talk about her guns and her God with her people. The more the liberal media and establishment bashes her the more they mock the indie OH/PA/MI swings that will decide this election.
Bottomline: the polling numbers on Palin are a mile wide and an inch deep. The hail mary is simply in the air ... the reception or incompletion will be her debate with Biden. Underestimate her at your own risk Obama-peeps.
All the Left is doing in this anti-Palin hysteria is lowing the barre when she faces off against Biden.
I agree with comment moderating--at the very least get the poisonous stuff off of here. We can be bipartisan about it--we'll give you Brad if you give us Mulerider, e.g.
Is the book banning story for real or another hoax like the father being 26, or she being a Buchanan supporter?
My guess is "Color Purple".
I'm beginning to believe this election marks the epic beginning of a real sea change in American politics. We are seeing a significant rejection of the social conservatism and religious bigotry of the Republican base.
The public has pretty much had it with policies that want to restrict a woman's choices over her own body, a gay person's right to love and dignity, and a minority person's right to an equal playing field.
As a nation we're moving past all that fear-driven, narrow-minded repression, and we will not regress.
I think in decades to come we'll look back on this election as the time when the old-style Republican party began its move to being a regional fringe movement... and was replaced, in the following decade, by a new party of true fiscal conservatism that many more people will be comfortable with.
Someone said:
"He has to drive the negatives of both so sky-high only a handful of Americans want to vote."
I agree, here the real race stuff and the rest comes. Will they go so low as to do the "white woman/black man" ad? I has to backfire, it must backfire, PLEASE!
You will rue the day!!!
I will make your life miserable, liberals!
Asses! All of you!
Be careful Mule Rider! We don't want you to have a heart attack, just when McSame will needs every vote he can get in November! :-)
The librarian's name is Mary Ellen Baker - the reporters are after her right now:
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1837918,00.html
Read about this freak show... and think about how Palin will answer when she is asked which books she wants burned first.
VC-
The book banning story has legs, it is confirmed in that very realistic letter that was a link earlier today, and fits with the "abuse of power" stuff perfectly. Time will tell...
>>Is the book banning story for real or another hoax like the father being 26, or she being a Buchanan supporter?
See Time magazine
Stein says that as mayor, Palin continued to inject religious beliefs into her policy at times. "She asked the library how she could go about banning books," he says, because some voters thought they had inappropriate language in them. "The librarian was aghast." That woman, Mary Ellen Baker, couldn't be reached for comment, but news reports from the time show that Palin had threatened to fire Baker for not giving "full support" to the mayor.
Spare the Godwinning. She didn't "Burn" any books.
Jeeze you guys make it sound like they had SA troops marching down Main Street in Wasilla to burn books in front of a manically grinning Mayor Palin.
Glenn: "Anti-DC cred"? You mean by running Ted Stevens PAC? Or being endorsed by him?
Anyhoo: nkpolitics1279, I agree: linky?
Why in HELL would the republicans choose PALIN? Why? Not that I am republican, in the contrary I support Obama, but they had Romney, Huckabee etc...but they decide to go with an incompetent, flat earth believer...WTF?
The only thing this says is that McCain does not have the judgement, the experience nor the intelligence to make any important decision whatsoever...
I really, really like the Rasmussen numbers. That tracker has been very stubborn so far. But a number above 50% is great.
An objection: I am not sure if the smaller convention bounce for Obama can be explained by the Palin-pick. I think we just saw the last chunk of Hillary voters getting behind Obama. And these voters will put Obama ahead in Florida and Ohio. Apart from that, the Democratic convention did not need to rally the Obama base anymore since they were pretty excited already. So the convention bounce was smaller than usual because of the unusually long primary season.
I also think that Palin could not have been responsible for the smaller bounce because McCain had his (smaller, hard-core) base rallied already. And I guess the common first reaction of independent voters was "Who is this woman???". Unfortunately for the Republicans the national introduction went awfully wrong. I would assume that she is now the "woman from Alaska with the pregnant teenage daughter" for the low-information voters. And even a great convention speech cannot erase that effect.
Lieberman speech first in the GOP convention. Yawn, yawn and yawn.
Filistro, I sure hope you are right, but you are putting the cart ahead of the horse. It may be just that the dems have more negatives on the repubs for once and it is really same old, same old - and that is only true if this bounce holds.
Take a deep breath, wait for next week.
If you are having trouble reading later comments after they reach over 200 or so, click on the Post a Comment link and then click "newest" in the upper right of the window that opens. You can read the new comments there.
Boy, Rasmussen isn't in the tank for McCain is he? When Obama was only +1 after the DEM convention, RAS headline on his website, "NO CONVENTION BOUNCE FOR OBAMA". Now that OBama is +6 per RAS, you have to click on the 'daily update' to see the rolling tracker. Keep watching, if McCain gets close again -- major headline on RAS, if Obama should increase his lead -- you'll see no headlines.
Anyway, the GOP is sticking with Palin and this is good news for the DEMS. She'll be the gift that keeps on giving for at least the next 4 weeks whereas replacing her with Romney would keep the GOP base fired up and lend a lot of credibility to the 'experience' argument that McCain SHOULD be making but can't with Palin as his fluffer.
And President Bush talks by a satellite.
filistro: Hear f#cking hear.
Virginia Conservative said...
Spare the Godwinning. She didn't "Burn" any books.
Jeeze you guys make it sound like they had SA troops marching down Main Street in Wasilla to burn books in front of a manically grinning Mayor Palin"
No, but don't you think she would have if she could have ;)
Nate, I think it's time you make it official: The model is strongly presenting a case for Colorado is the tipping point state for this election season.
We generally accept now that Obama is going to win 260 electoral votes from Kerry + IA + NM - NH. This is equivalent to Gore (who earned 266 from this combination), but today the 2000 map is only drawn 48 times out of 10,000. If the Obama campaign focuses on crystallizing their leads in New Hampshire and Colorado the tip is made.
VC: Come on. You've shown GREAT strides over the past several days in coming to terms with things; don't backslide now. Attempting to ban books based on "offensive language", whether done by lawyers or stormtroopers is a Bad Thing is this country, no? I mean, we all recognize the deep existential threat posed by Harry Potter or King and King, yet we have to store those books somewhere while they're not being read, right?
LOL - OK, so maybe she wants to destroy the banned books by sending them to the landfill. That is so much different than burning.
Thanks for the crucial correction, Virginia.
My book guess: "Ulysses" by James Joyce or "The Catcher in the Rye" by J.D. Salinger
My vote for book banned at the Wasilla Public Library is Tropic of Cancer by Henry Miller. They didn't want a repeat of the George Costanza Affair from 1971... ;-)
Rasmussen is a huge republican, he freely admits it.
I'm voting for Harry Potter.
Yes, I think banning books in public libraries are stupid, so long as we're having public libraries.
Palin belongs to a Pentacostal church. Read that article, truly frightening stuff. Their pastor tell them that if you don't vote bush you go to hell. wtf?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html
I'm going to play the Devil's (and VC's) advocate and say that there's actually quite a bit of difference between banning books because they contain bad language and banning books because they were written by someone you consider a 'degenerate'.
"I'm beginning to believe this election marks the epic beginning of a real sea change in American politics. We are seeing a significant rejection of the social conservatism and religious bigotry of the Republican base.
The public has pretty much had it with policies that want to restrict a woman's choices over her own body, a gay person's right to love and dignity, and a minority person's right to an equal playing field.
As a nation we're moving past all that fear-driven, narrow-minded repression, and we will not regress.
I think in decades to come we'll look back on this election as the time when the old-style Republican party began its move to being a regional fringe movement... and was replaced, in the following decade, by a new party of true fiscal conservatism that many more people will be comfortable with."
I really, really hope you are right.
OMG! It is the new Palin story of the day! Her church is as bad as Obama's!!!!
Perfect choice John, we love Sarah "crazy right wing nut" Palin!!!!
Can she negate another McCain position against Obma? She has screwed up patrtiotism, experience, Wright, family values and judgment...
Bob Barr will win the election.
In the short term, Palin's clearly a big plus for McCain. Palin really solidifies the support of the social conservatives, people who generally don't like McCain, and her rather unconventional family softens her hard social views that might otherwise turn off voters who might find a young, pretty VP appealing.
However, in the long term McCain might have some trouble. Palin's ties to Dominionist groups may well scare away some people who otherwise would have supported the moderate McCain. Much as Obama's the most liberal member of the US Senate, Palin's the most socially conservative governor in the union.
If America votes for McCain-Palin anyway, that tells me a lot about the power of religion in America.
PorridgeGun, first he will be elected.
I slandered the wrong "Brad" above. I meant brad, not Brad. Sorry, Brad. People, come up with some more unique handles, like mine!
It's a little too early to speculate, but just for shits and giggles...
President BARACK OBAMA
Vice President JOE BIDEN
White House Chief of Staff: Tom Daschle or Caroline Kennedy
Attorney General: Patrick Fitzgerald (Edwards and Spitzer literally screwed themselves out of getting the job)
Secretary of State: Hillary
Clinton or Bill Richardson
Secretary of Defense: Wesley Clark
Under Secretary of Defense: Susan Rice
Secretary of Homeland Security: Richard Clarke
Secretary of Treasury: No doubt it'll be some corporatist hack
Secretary of Labor: Robert Reich
Secretary of Education: Caroline Kennedy
Secretary of Energy: Bill Richardson or Al Gore
Secretary of Health & Human Services: Elizabeth Edwards (Daschle said he wants the job)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Paul Rieckhoff
CIA Director: Ray McGovern
Senate Majority Leader: Chris Dodd
House Speaker: Rahm Emanuel (I don't like the guy, but Pelosi has been a disgrace)
We could be moving to a new view of elections, and a new paradigm, but it is because of a generational change (if the kiddies vote) and not alot else. The young 'uns will not be as influenced by the repub lie as the paranoid oldsters....
White House Chief of Staff: Tom Daschle or Caroline Kennedy
I'd much sooner guess David Plouffe
ira-
All Palin does is make the red states redder. She hurts among independents and women. People do not want to elect their crazy religious neighbor, unless they ARE a crazy religious neighbor.
I am looking at 538 State project polls.
Joe Lieberman and Laura Bush didn´t help John.
brad- reverend wright never told his people to go kill other people.
Palin's pastor did (check the links and read). That's the difference. I would take ANY DAY Wright over that pentacostal crap. They're like talibans.
VA Con:
Is the book banning story for real or another hoax like the father being 26, or she being a Buchanan supporter?
Pat Buchana sure seems to be certain she was a Buchanan supporter and fundraiser. But what does he know?
If unertl's argument that this increase in support will be more-or-less permanent since it is coming primarily from Democrats, then the election probably becomes Obama's to lose. Even with the narrowing of the gap in party ID that Rasmussen is reporting -- and I'm not sure how confident to be in those numbers -- if Obama can bring in anywhere near 90% of Democrats he is virtually assured of winning. I'm not totally convinced that this isn't still just a bounce, but it is certainly plausible that this boost could be permanent. I'm certainly not ready to go as far as filistro, suggesting that this could be the start of a political re-alignment. That said, it certainly is possible.
Who vetted Palin anyway? There are so many questions out there right now that the attention isn't on the convention, as it should be, but is instead on the VP and her seemingly many issues. It's possible that none of them will be serious (though the AIP one has the most potential to be damaging, I think), but it's stepping all over the GOP's big week of free media. Gustav gets an assist, that's true, but McCain would be so much better off if he had picked Romney. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, I guess.
Brad wins the prize today for prognostication...
Todd Palin Was Registered Member of Alaska Independence Party Until 2002
By Kate Klonick - September 2, 2008, 3:25PM
The McCain camp today disputed rumors that presumptive vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin was ever registered with the secessionist Alaska Independence Party by releasing years of voter registration history . . . but it looks like that doesn't apply to her husband.
This afternoon, the director of Division of Elections in Alaska, Gail Fenumiai, told TPMmuckraker that Todd Palin registered in October 1995 to the Alaska Independence Party, a radical group that advocates for Alaskan secession from the United States.
Besides a short period of a few months in 2000 when he changed his registration to undeclared, Todd Palin remained a registered member of AIP until July 2002 when he registered again as an undeclared voter.
Tomemos-
I sure hope you are not comparing me to Mulerider. On what basis, may I ask?
Redshift-
They have a letter she wrote to the local town paper saying she is a Forbes supporter, from 2000. Pat was mis-remembering things.
My top book guess -- "Catcher in the Rye," because reason that's been mentioned for the attempted censorship was "foul language."
Mike-
That is not the whole story - Sarah Palin gave a video taped speech to the AIP THIS YEAR. Let me find the link.
The hits just keep on coming.
"Rallied the base..."
With a censorious (would be book suppressor, if not burner), secessionist (supporter of Alaskan secession (roll over, Abe!)) who is as much a fiscal conservative as Dubya (ask the residents of Wasilla how they feel about the debt she left them and the white elephant sport center), who thinks that American troops in Iraq are on a Mission From God.
Rallied? Base?
Oh, and she's vindictive, secretive, a vicious political climber and didn't know jack about what the VP job was, only a few months ago (admitting it on TV).
But hey, she's a babe, and pro-birth. What more could the GOP want?
I never thought I'd say this, but I wish McCain had selected someone who was only scary, and not terrifyingly inappropriate and unqualified--someone like Lieberman.
That said, I think the unveiling of Sarah Palin will cement the Obama bounce. Look at how solid a choice he made and how supportive of women both Obama and Biden are--and how anti-women (and anti-America) McCain's choice turns out to be. No sale for 99% of the PUMA folk, at least.
Rick Davis said today that the speaking slot of Palin has not yet been set.
Isn't this completely abnormal? Tuesday of the convention week and they don't know when their VP is going to speak?
Nate- Please find a way to highlight for us what has changed in your state by state analysis.
It would be great to have a history page that shows the key numbers, day by day. Also graphs, like the super tracker, for your EV, Popular vote and win percentage stats.
At least, if a state flops over, so the electoral vote projection changes, can you note in the text of your daily polls post, that Ohio or whatever, switched from red to blue, or vice versa.
Thanks
Saul
VA Con:
They have a letter she wrote to the local town paper saying she is a Forbes supporter, from 2000. Pat was mis-remembering things.
Buchanan says she was a supporter and fundraiser in '96, not 2000.
Nate, I understand your desire to include all polling data in your model, but Zogby's online polling is so methodologically deficient and clearly non-predictive that I think it is worth not including at all. Even if it is the only recent polling available, I think it is more likely to introduce error than would relying on older polling. I think of Zogby's online polling as pretty much still at a proof-of-concept phase, and still far from ready for use as a predictor of anything.
Brad: Again, my apologies. I was thinking of the wrong guy. Your commentary has been fair-minded and sane.
Also, nice to see Mulerider's comments are gone. Hope that's the last we see of him.
Read this. (compare me to Mulerider, you little....)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/2667214/John-McCains-running-mate-Sarah-Palin-was-in-Alaskan-independence-party.html
While it is thought that Mrs Palin officially left the party to become a Republican in 1996, she recorded an address for its convention earlier this year in which she said: "I share your party's vision of upholding the constitution of our great state" and told members to "keep up the good work".
Lynette Clark, the chairman of the Alaskan Independence Party (AIP), confirmed to ABC News that Mrs Palin and her husband Todd had both been both members and attended at least one party convention.
"When she joined the party our platform was right under her nose," Mrs Clark said. "I can't understand why in God's name she has aligned herself with a candidate who opposes the development of our republic and Alaska's resource wealth," she added.
In a video recorded at this year's party convention, Dexter Clark, the party's vice chairman, can be seen telling delegates: "The situation is completely out of hand, the decay of the federal government is totally complete."
He tells them that in order to propagate AIP policy they "should infiltrate" mainstream parties. "Whichever party in that area [in which] you can get something done, get into that political party, even though it does have its problems," he says.
We haven't heard from Iowa, Minn or Wisc in quite a while. I'm really curious if this bounce is truly working its way down to the states. We're making a lot of assumptions from national polls with smaller sample sizes than most of the state polls.
If you consider that Palin is most likely to "redden" the already red states, it's possible that the bounce in individual purple states might be even stronger than the national numbers suggest. The counter to that is that if "red" voters in all states are excited by Palin, it might narrow some margins in close states in McCain's favor.
We need some polls. Florida tops my list...both Biden and Palin have aspects likely to sway Florida voters.
Tomemos-
Apology accepted.
I don't think there is any way McCain will catch up. He had a lead for about nano second and tied it for 3 seconds, and that's the best he's been able to do since the end of the primary.
The Sarah Palin pick was the last gasp of the neo-conservative religious base. Democrats who were on the fence at all were driven straight to Obama and moderates will surely be driven to him by Palin's inexperience and kookiness. I think she's only going to be more a of a millstone around McCain's neck. She'll make a nice speech and hit all the right themes because they'll give her what to say, but it'll be phoney, and then she'll be banished to places like Oklahoma and the reddest parts of Ohio.
If she quits the ticket, we've got Thomas Eagleton all over again and McCain looks even worse. Then if he backpeddles and picks Lieberman or Romney, there are lots and lots of pitfalls there.
I think we'll see the state polls shift next.
My blog continues to have the BEST analysis. So here goes. After Republican convention, McCain will be tied or within 2 points of Obama. Jack. BTW, an Obama supporter.
Crap!!! Rick Davis has not scheduled her? Did we vet her too quickly? She might be a goner...
DAMN!!!!!
Brad-
What are you talking about?
Holy Cow! I just read back through teh comments and saw one I missed... this:
Sam Wang said...
Given the most recent available state margins, this would put Obama ahead not only in Montana and Florida, but also Virginia and North Carolina. (And ironically, Alaska too.)
I estimate that if we had current state polls, a current EV snapshot estimate of the race would be Obama 343 EV, McCain 195 EV (95% confidence interval Obama 324-362 EV). Read about it here.
from SAM WANG! 343 EV!
I may need to go lie down for a while with a cold cloth on my forehead :-)
National Post:
McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said the timing of Palin's speech was not yet set. He would not comment on whether she will use that speech to address any of the controversies currently surrounding her.
But he said, her speech will be "the most important speech the nominee will give in the course of the election" because of the large television audience.
Dude, its a private server. He can do what he pleases.
Anybody know how many votes she got in her landslide victory over the incumbent mayor?
A little over six hundred, beat him by two hundred though. And took the reigns of the fifty employees to Wasilla, with zero deficit. Raised the taxes by thirty three pct and left the town w/ a twenty two million dollar deficit. Now that's a Republican agenda I recognize.
VC-
This is what I am talking about!
"bondirotta said...
Rick Davis said today that the speaking slot of Palin has not yet been set.
Isn't this completely abnormal? Tuesday of the convention week and they don't know when their VP is going to speak?"
What would really be cool is an ignore list. That way Mule Rider could keep doing what 14-year olds do on the internet without being "censored"...but people would not have to read it.
Um, Brad, the hurricane kind of threw the schedule out the window. Notice Rudy Giuliani is no longer the keynoter, Bush isn't speaking in person, etc. Shes not being dumped.
I would like to express my appreciate of Mule Rider's tireless efforts to get Nate to institute banning of problem users! ;-)
VC-
I sure hope so, but I would think they would want to advertise this speech to high heaven as it may be her last real shot at rehabilitation.
Becky @ 2:20
I'm offering even money on each of the following, 3:2 that they ALL were on the bad list:
Judy Blume, Are You There God, It's Me Margaret and Forever
Salinger, Catcher In The Rye
J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter series
Toni Morrison, Beloved
"Nate is trying to censor me!
Bigot!
Hater!
Ass!"
I wonder why people think Republicans are stupid. LOL
ooooh, is this shaping up to be a bad week for McCain. And Obama and Biden don't have to say one darn thing.
McCain Strikes Back... places blame for the claims/smears on Obama.
The smears are the exact ones many Obama fans are sending to 538 right now.
linky... from 10 min ago.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080902/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_politics
Mule Rider,
What is wrong with you man? This is internet, relax. You have got two options, leave or discuss in civilized manner. It's not that hard.
SelenesMom
I just took a poll and one hundred percent of teens that read those books are not pregnant! Now I know why the haters hate those books.
LOL!!! That won't work McCain!!! That might solidfy your base, but that won't fly anywhere else. He is attcking HuufingPost and DailyKOS and trying to do the old republican "blame the meesenger" - "if it is in the NYT it can't be right" crap. Unlikely to fly with this kind of stuff, and with this depth of problems.
Sarah Palin has been swiftboated, quite successfully.
MR -- It's cool. I know this is the year for Republicans to pretend they aren't. Even Republican senators are avoiding their own convention. ;)
Not the coverage one would want. Also the National Enquirer now has a whole issue on Palin.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/The_Wenner_campaign_contd.html#comments
"Sarah Palin has been swiftboated, quite successfully."
Oh come on, VC. Yesterday you were starting to make sense, now you are losing it again.
Sarah Palin is woefully underqualified candidate with a boatload of scandals and baggage who wasn't properly vetted. This isn't like some long-term concerted effort to take down a well-known public figure like Kerry.
VC-
Yup, that is what I said yesterday, this is the Swift Boat of 2008 - the only difference is that it is based on real facts that SHOULD have come out in a good vetting process.
The AIP is the killer.
filistro--- :-D
that comment about laying down with something cold over your head. priceless. At least you didn't say it was a can of beer (given our drinking discussion the other day) ;-)
Holy crap! The McCain camp pulled an interview with Larry King because of the beating that Tucker took from Campbell last night saying, "That exchange was over the line."
This video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qCL3G4DZSc
A few bounceological remarks.
1. Bounces are a Gallup phenomenon. By this I mean (a) the historical evidence is gathered from Gallup (no other firm has been around for more than a handful of conventions), (b) Gallup’s methodology is more tuned to daily bounces (it is really a journalistic, not a prognosticating tool. That’s what Ploufe meant).
2. Bounces do not change anything. The size of the bounce does not show whether or not the convention was staged properly or not. The size of the bounce – assuming random noise is removed – is not a cause of anything, but is instead an effect: a bounce results from the fact that a party did not yet fully engage its potential. By definition, come the elections, the party is much more likely to engage its potential fully. In this sense a bounce is of predictive value: it shows how much potential a party has.
3. A strong bounce shows that a party has positive potential: it has room to grow relative to its previous polling; a weak bounce shows that it has negative potential: it should probably shrink relative to its previous polling. This is the essence of http://election08data.blogspot.com/2008/08/convention-bumps.html.
4. What is a strong bounce? Over and above 6 points GALLUP-WISE, RANDOM NOISE REMOVED. In simple terms: the best prediction you have for a party following its convention is the immediate post-convention result, minus 6. (A 6 points means that the elections were probably well reflected in the immediate pre-convention results).
5. What was Obama’s Gallup number, random noise removed? For this, we need to remove the Palin announcement effect. This had nothing to do with the strength of the convention: it merely created a counter-force impacting on the polling and reducing the predictive value of the convention bounce (because, remember, convention bounces are not causal agents: the fact that McCain managed to reduce the apparent bounce makes no difference). And so: how would Monday’s number have looked like without Palin announced on Friday?
6. It seems clear that the post-Hillary speech Gallup polling were Obama above 50, and at about +12 or more above Rep. It is likely that the post-Obama speech would have been the same if not better (I am not making things up: remember the effect of the Berlin speech, and this one had much much better ratings). In reality, with the Palin announcement, the numbers were Obama about 45 and about +5. This in and of itself would take off 2 or 3 points from the 3-day average; but with there being knock-on effects for the next couple of days, we must conclude that Obama had about 3-4 points removed from his bounce as a result of the Palin announcement. It is very likely that Monday would have been, in a news-free world (the kind of world one had in post-conventions past), about Obama 51-52 McCain 42.
7. The simplest prediction is that the race settles down to 3-4 points Obama advantage, i.e. a little below the June peak.
Theres nothing wrong with swiftboating, rhys. Its part of the game.
That cover of Palin is richly deserved, karmic justice to McCain for his Hilton/Spears ad.
I really just want Election Day to hurry up and arrive. I feel that if the election were held tomorrow, Obama would have a 90%+ chance of winning. Sure, Obama has the potential now with Palin to really have a blowout, but there's also the potential for a major blunder, scandal and/or Palin surviving her post-hoc vetting process and succeeding the Dan Quayle-like expectations.
LAT said...
Not the coverage one would want. Also the National Enquirer now has a whole issue on Palin.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/The_Wenner_campaign_contd.html#comments"
PRICELESS!!! She is now truly a first in American political history!!!!!!!! Hey Edwards was only good enough for a couple lead stories - Palin gets a WHOLE ISSUE!!!
So Thompson is going to use his speech to defend Palin.
Wow. This woman is forcing the entire convention to revolve around her scandals. There is zero oxygen left for Mac or anyone else.
She ate Minneapolis.
Palin is first ever reported auto-Swift Boating.
All seven of the scholars at the American Political Science Association meeting last week projected an Obama victory. The margins ranged from 16 to a .1 margin though depending on the specific features and variables used in each of the forecasting models. The average for the seven forecasts was 54.1%.
The closest of these forecasts gave heavy weight to inter-party conflict in the primaries (Norpoth) or very recent government economic growth estimates (Campbell).
These same political scientists were within 2.5 in 2004 but gave Al Gore 52.8% of the two-party vote in 2000.
You can find these models in the conference papers on the APSA website or wait until the October issue of PS comes out.
"Well, the fact remains at the end of the day that I've never given one iota of support to Republicans in my life with a vote, with money/fundraising, etc."
Of course this is true. 14 year olds can't vote.
Nice to see McCain's campaign calling the Obama team out for the lies an hate they (and many of you on this blog) have been spreading about Palin. The shear fear of true change is apparent from the Liberal rants we have seen since she was named..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080902/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_politics
What is the actual definition of "swiftboating"?
Wouldn't it involve something like "attacking a candidate's primary strength and using concerted smears to turn it into a weakness?"
What's happening to Palin isn't "swiftboating." It's "vetting."
I guess I ned to explain further. Assuming your average 'commenter' is 65 or below remember this. The Republicans have set the perfect trap. All Gov. Palin needs is a family dog and a cloth coat. America will collectively cry and Obama will be in real trouble. See my comment above. Jack
Mule Rider: I am glad to see you go. Your repeated references to wankers are not funny, and never were. Please keep your promise.
"bjb1968 said...
Nice to see McCain's campaign calling the Obama team out for the lies an hate they (and many of you on this blog) have been spreading about Palin. The shear fear of true change is apparent from the Liberal rants we have seen since she was named..
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080902/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_politics"
Thanks for this post, the last throughs of true deparation are setting in. IT CAN'T BE TRUE! BLAME THE OTHER SIDE!
Huffington Post deserves an A plus as that is where this stuff started.
None of this means much until we see what the Republicians do this week. By next Tuesday we should begin to see where the race stands at the beginning of the sprint.
I still think that a lot of Obama's pre-convention performance was due to his giving the Clinton's their time like he did. This gave Clinton supporters time to drop out of his numbers and now they are coming back in bigger numbers. The exciting thing is that Obama is pushing more towards and over 50%.
The darkest hour comes just before dawn.
The above axiom seems to be in play here.
The Daily Kos, Huff Post, and now the Nat. Enq.
The NYT gets slammed by both both the left and right for three stories on its front page today.
The ultra left just overplayed its hand so badly that by this time next week any and all "scandals" regarding Palin will be carried by the Nat. Enq and the Nat Enq only.
I predict a backlash of sympathy towards McCain/Palin to begin to surface by this weekend.
Remember back in '92 the first "scandals" that hit Clinton were "I didnt inhale" and his lack of service in Vietnam.
Those two issues went over so badly that by the time the real stories... the MSM didnt go after them as hard and or couldnt make them stick.
The reason men in the same age, Bubbas, group sympathized with Slick Willy.
The swing group this year, women Palins age, will begin to feel the same.
I think the ULTRA left has over played the hand dealt.
And the Mod Dem base is underestimating Palin.
That is what will put this/these issues to rest in about two- three weeks.
Like I said, the only thing that can save her is a checkers speech. Look it up on YouTube if you haven't seen it. She needs something like that with Bristol crying in the corner and an 800 number and email address where people can express their support for her staying on the ticket.
I don't think she is as smart as Dick Nixon, but stranger things have happened!
Doesn't everyone think this is a Palin bounce as much as a convention bounce? What kind of idiot picks someone to possibly end up our president in a crisis who they've met once and not really vetted.
the issue here is not her it's the VETTING. Rove just said to the Washington Post in front of others that Palin was a political pick to get Hillary voters (note he does not mention the base). The Alaska voter registrar NEVER got a call from teg vetting team to check if Todd Palin was registers to the secessionist party. Come on guys, it is not about her who could have survived a long roll out and would have been a shoe in 6 years from now but not at this moment.
"Nice to see McCain's campaign calling the Obama team out for the lies an hate they (and many of you on this blog) have been spreading about Palin."
The Obama team hasn't spread any lies about Palin.
You are spreading lies about the Obama team.
Jack-
Yes, and the moon is made of green cheese.
Average Joe repub will not go for the AIP and the rest, the vision of porr mothering is bad enough.
I kinda feel bad for her for the DailyKOS stuff that turned out to be untrue - but the rest of this is hers to own, she lied about her record. She is a really bad choice, and makes makes it triply bad is this stuff was easily found in internet searches in three days! I know McCain can't use the internet, but doesn't he have one supporter under 30 to do this for him?
Brad, if you want to understand the last four days of John McCain's behavior, look to no other than Eliot Spitzer.
These people start to drink their own koolaid and believe they can get away with anything.
Nixon had only one scandal to defend against. Palin has half a dozen. She is a blank canvas - she cannot afford to even acknowledge the existence of certain lines of attack; like misuse of personnel files and abuse of power. Just mentioning them would define her.
The best she can do is to hug her family and blink through tears.
mikewpbfl said...
The darkest hour comes just before dawn...
LOrd, but y'all are SPUNKY!
You remind me of one of Jimmy Connors' last matches when he was over 40... hurting in every muscle and joint, down 2 sets and love-4 in the third... and he staggered over to the camera and gasped, "This is great! Got him right where I want him!"
I agree with VCon and it has to be quite a speech because the allegations, especailly the reformer credibility, is just getting less and less credible.
And once again. The whole personal story came from Alaska REPUBLICAN blogs that pre-dated her annoucement as VP and the National Enquirer. THEY forced the announcement yesterday.
That McCain(who never once, ONCE, stood up to the smears against Obama like Obama did yesterday) just shows you once more that for McCain (and a lot of republicans) it is all about winning.
She doesn't have to address them. Nixon never did address the subject of that speech (his secret slush fund) because people got all teary eyed over the cocker spaniel and the "good Republican cloth coat".
Nothing like getting your ass kicked in political warfare and crying foul.
I will be the first to admit that GW beat Kerry because he was a better candidate and ran a better campaign. Everything else is nonsense.
I would love to see you show any evidence that the Obama campaign spread any "lies an hate". It is clear that blogs have been ablaze, but I do hope you realize blogs are written on by normal people;)
Brad@3:44
Like blaming Obama for forcing the pregnancy story when it was The National Inquirer, and they knew it. Vicious liars, the McPOW campaign
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