On the strength of an abundance of state and national polling, Barack Obama has retaken the lead in our Electoral College projection. Our model now forecasts him to win the election 61.2 percent of the time; it also gives him a slight, half-point advantage in the popular vote. Yesterday, Obama was projected to win the Electoral College just 45 percent of the time, so this is a rather dramatic move upward.
How can the numbers move so sharply in just 24 hours? I have tweaked the model slightly at a couple of points recently in order to make it more sensitive to new information. But these adjustments are very minor, and their effects are fairly trivial. The principal reasons these numbers have become more volatile are twofold. Firstly, we're finally getting into crunch time. The closer we get to the election, the smaller the true margins of error in the polls, so relatively small advantages can become more meaningful. But secondly, we have a lot more data to look at. If Barack Obama looks like he's moved up a point or two between two or three polls, that may not be particularly meaningful, and our model will tend to treat it as noise. If, on the other hand, Obama appears to have gained a point or two between 20 or 30 polls, which is what we're getting on a daily basis nowadays, we can say with more certainty that a real shift in the electorate has occurred.
This is not to say, of course, that every single poll contains good news for Obama. At least two current national polls (GWU/Battleground and Economist/YouGov) still have McCain ahead, and a couple more have the candidates tied. And there are nuggets of good news for McCain in some of the state polling:
Which of these numbers will McCain partisans like? The +3 from ARG in New Hampshire. The +7 in Virginia from National Journal. The virtual ties in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Iowa in the Big Ten poll. The +6 in Florida from SuvreyUSA.
And which will Obama partisans like? The +10 in Colorado from InsiderAdvantage (very probably an outlier, but outliers are OK when we're able to average them in with other polls). The +3 in Indiana from Ann Selzer (although remember that Selzer polls have had a rather strong Democratic lean so far this cycle). Two polls showing Ohio drawing to a tie, and the same in Florida. The Michigan number from the Big Ten survey. The Oregon number from the Portland Tribune. Both of the New Mexico numbers. Maybe the Rasmussen number in New Jersey.
That is, by my count, 10 or 11 or "good" state polls for Obama and 5 or 6 for McCain. The job of our model is to see the signal through the noise. There is quite a bit of noise, with so many pollsters in the field in so many different states, and so many different factors affecting voter preferences. Everything from national news events to advertising blasts in individual states will impact these numbers -- a really heavy ad buy in a particular state can sometimes move the numbers there by a couple of points, often only for no more than 24 hours.
But there is also some signal, and today it points toward Obama gaining a tangible amount of ground.
*-*
A lot of people have asked me to comment on the series of new polling put out by a consortium of Big Ten professors, and by the National Journal, respectively. Neither of these polls have any track record, and so there is no completely objective way to evaluate them; our model assigns any "unknown" pollsters a slightly-below-average rating. Neither has a statistically significant Democratic or Republican lean, from what we can tell so far.
I like the level of disclosure provided by the Big Ten polls, which have a complete set of cross-tabular results available. If you want to gain stature as a "new" polling outlet, that is the way to do it. The National Journal polls also provide a fair amount of supporting detail, although it is a bit more cumbersome to navigate through. Nobody takes politics more seriously than the boys at the National Journal, so you can assume that there was a lot of thought given to their methodology. I do wish, however, that they had elected to go with sample sizes larger than 400 persons, which will produce erratic results even if you're doing everything else right.
9.18.2008
Today's Polls, 9/18: Obama Regains the Lead
@ 7:30 PM
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531 comments
oh, haha i never saw him say that. well i never said it would i just said it would make news for alittle longer then nc_voter said it would.
I'm an astronaut. Really, brandishing the credentials card on the internet is pretty silly.
"if there had been some I'm pretty sure he would have released it. You don't get smart enough to hack an account, but then too dumb to read emails. "
Yes, you do. "hacking" is not hard, as evidenced by how he did this.
I'm skeptical that a kid dumb enough to not think through this was smart enough to know Alaskan sunshine laws in and out.
I'm not an expert enough on Alaska's laws to know the exact details, but nothing I've read so far would indicate that e-mails aren't qualifying.
I don't know where you are getting the "policy" qualification from. From your link:
"How is "record" defined?
"Public records" are defined as books, papers, files, accounts, writings, including drafts and memorializations of conversations, and other items, regardless of format or physical characteristics, that are developed or received by a public agency, or by a private contractor for a public agency, and that are preserved for their informational value or as evidence of the organization or operation of the public agency."
"for informational value or evidence of the organization or operation of the public agency."
If the record is "preserved for...operation of the public agency." it's covered, and that's a very (presumably intentionally) broad stroke.
Yeah, that rice thing from earlier this year is a pretty weak definition of shortage. It was the rice equivalent of Ike causing a spike in gas prices and, at least around here, some gas stations running out of gas. Six days later, gas has come back down $.20 (though still up $.40 overall) and no station is out of gas.
The closest thing we've had in the USA to a real peacetime shortage were the gas lines in the 1970s. And, surprise surprise, that was caused by government distortion of the marketplace (price controls).
virginia conservative: Your obsession with toilet paper is puzzling, not to say Freudian. Rice/wheat/flour not good enough for you? How long does a shortage need to last before you declare it a shortage? How short should the supply get with reference to the basket of consumer goods? And I suppose it would be too much to ask you to recall gas rationing in the US in the 70s, since I suspect you were naught but a glint in the milkman's eye in those days.
"And I suppose it would be too much to ask you to recall gas rationing in the US in the 70s,"
Read above, that was caused by government-imposed (dare I say Soviet style) price controls.
I haven't noticed any shortage of wheat or flower at Kroger's. Ever. Not even right before a hurricane.
If you have at your store I'd suggest driving around.
v.c.: Oh, so you DID recall gas rationing in the 70s? How lovely. So tell me: was the US not an industrial Democracy back then? Any massive natural disasters? World wars? No?
Then STFU.
Am I shouting into a void here?
Saying there won't be shortages in a free market economy is like saying water is wet. It's a tautology. It's also meaningless. If you have a village of 100 people and food gets so expensive that 10 people die of starvation because they can't afford it, you don't have a shortage. Doesn't mean that you shouldn't try to structure the economy so that 10 people don't die because they can't afford food.
AXMXZ-
Why, yes, we did have that then. And it was caused by Soviet-style price controls.
But thanks for illustrating that we don't have real shortage unless the government meddles in the price structure/tries to plan the production of consumer goods.
virginia conservative: Sorry, but you don't get to define the US economy at will as "capitalist" when there are years of plenty and "Soviet" when there are years of dearth.
brian: You try explaining it to him. I'm running out of ideas. It's like tickling a wall with a fucking feather duster and hoping for a laugh.
No, I get to define it as "Soviet" when it dictates the prices private business can charge for a given good, as it did with gasoline in the 70s.
Surprise surprise, the price controls caused shortage.
Which is why we don't do that anymore, no matter how much people bitch about the price of gas.
But thanks for illustrating that we don't have real shortage unless the government meddles in the price structure/tries to plan the production of consumer goods.
I hear the sky is blue too. Got any other gems of wisdom to drop on us?
Holy crap , things just get worse and worse:
Fed and Treasury Offer to Work With Congress on Plan for Vast Bailout
Thursday, September 18, 2008 10:03:17 PM · by writer33 · 19 replies
New York Times ^ | 9/18/08 | Edmund L. Andrews
They're going to involve Congress! That just compounds the prroblem 10000 times.
Like I said a bet a bail-out for Detroit is in the deal to satisfy Nancy and Harry.
I find that hopeful. If anybody can water down the original intentions of an action, it's Congress.
Ok, USSR and shortage economies shelved for arguments sake.
We're going to presume we live in a free-market paradise and also shelve the reality that the Federal government just bought itself a huge arm of the speculative market.
The free market historical parallel is probably the Irish famine, where the landlords grew export crops and everyone starved.
Well, I don't know much of the 70's gas crisis. Wasn't born then. But I do think it would take a lot for this country to ever reach a point where there are shortages. I think there would have to be a confluence of supply tightening, huge joblessness, and a unbelievably and historically weak dollar. While all three of those things exist today, those factors are not anywhere near the point that they would have to be to have shortages.
virginia conservative: So how would you classify the US economy right now: capitalist, Soviet, or something in the middle? Right now you are, along with every other tax payer in America, an involuntary owner of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Soviet? Capitalist? What does it say about a "capitalist" system that it has to be propped up by "Soviet" measures to prevent a total global meltdown?
"Also, this "hacking" was nothing of the sort. "
I'm no expert, but iirc, that's what most "hacking" is. It's not fancy doodads on your computer, it's finding people who were lax in security.
And john
http://www.legislature.state.tn.us/house/members/h93.htm
Kernell is a Democrat
Not a partisan shot, just reflecting on Bush's presidency:
PATRIOT ACT
Department of Homeland Security
Warrantless Wiretapping
Treasury Bailout System (or whatever this plan will be called)
This has got to go down as the most horribly managed expansion of government, ever.
"This has got to go down as the most horribly managed expansion of government, ever."
But this time, if we only elect a Republican President, he *promises* to shrink the government.
Unlike the last five times...
Mike Kernell is a Democrat. Still doesn't hurt Obama. Non-story. Let's talk about flag-gate again though!
ed m.: The same thing happened in USSR (yeeeeees, that place again) in the 20s. They exported grain to Western Europe at "dumping" prices to acquire hard currency. Side effects included mass starvation and not infrequent instances of cannibalism.
That historical moment aside, I don't think the parrallel with the Irish export crop is very good - I mean, qui bono, really? This is one of those perfect shitstorms where it ends up everywhere. You might drown in it or get speckled, but you can't escape it.
John-
You're not being honest. He's a Dem. Check out his page:
http://www.legislature.state.tn.us/house/members/h93.htm
Next crap that needs debunked?
The hacker kid is a douche.
A day or two on Drudge and on Talk Radio.
But people are scared about the economy.
Thats what will drive the news cycle.
If McCain wanted to make it an issue, he would have called on Obama to denounce.
He didnt, and it wont happen.
Thoughts on this:
2005 Federal Housing Regulatory Reform Act
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=s109-190
John McCain - January 2005 "I join as a cosponsor of the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, S. 190, to underscore my support for quick passage of GSE regulatory reform legislation. If Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole.I urge my colleagues to support swift action on this GSE reform legislation."
Will the Republicans run ads saying that Barack Obama did not serve in the first Persian Gulf War- despite the fact he just graduated from Law School.
I really, really want to see how the candidates react to the latest massive bailout plan.
Could be a chance for either to make a move/blunder.
The kid who hacked Palin's account did her a favor. Imagine if it had been a *real* black hat.
Oops... Inkstain beat me to it. My bad.
By the way axmxz... Earlier you said F------ USSR. That's pretty much what most Americans thought of it at the time. Too bad that the left idolizes it so much that they're trying to turn us into it. Admit it, the left never met a dictator they didn't like.
Also, this "hacking" was nothing of the sort. He got access to the account by correctly answering the security question.
There are even script kiddie ways of opening up a yahoo account that don't need any social engineering (which this is an extremely lowly for of).
There isn't any way to explain this to normal people though. I've tried for years.
The Air Force runs commercials about them beating back (insert incredibly number here) of "cyber-attacks" a day. They count how much spam they blocked and no one ever comes out and tells the breathless masses that if you don't have an idiot on our side of the router, a "cyber-attack" is worthless.
weesa:
I've never gotten a good explanation of that. All we know is that the bill was killed in commiittee.
We don't know why it was killed (opposition to regulation? Preference for another bill with more regulation, less, different?), and we don't know why McCain proposed it when it doesn't jive with his many other statements on the matter/
It would be pretty stupid if they did, nk, as Palin was of age and didn't fight in that war either.
Another non-issue.
Inkstain -
The funny thing is, Bush is just a RINO now. But not in the way that most RINOs are, but to some fucked up bizarre extreme no one could have ever imagined.
Instead of McCain and other Republicans running away from their party name, they should be kicking Bush out of the party. Of course, he's the President, so you don't do that. But Jesus. As much as Republicans don't like to hear it, I do think they need to lose this election if they want to salvage their brand.
vernon: I am part of the American left, and damn proud of it. I've never met a lefty who spoke of the USSR with anything but scorn. Your talking points are decades out of date.
The Fed is really out on a limb here.
This is FDR sort of stuff.
anthony: This is also the Great Depression sort of stuff.
Sorry, that last comment was a bit of a cheap shot. I know a lot of Dems aren't socialists but then why do you guys put up people like Obama and Pelosi? Still, I shouldn't have said that. It was unpresidential.
Vern/Vanessa 2012
The Dynamic Duo of the Future!
I hope we keep hearing about this hacker story, because it just illustrates how ridiculous Palin is. People are laughing their a$$es off at a public official being so careless to do public business on a Yahoo account, and make it so easy someone can just break right in. And this person is looking to do national security things as the No. 2 person on the ticket?
And even better is that it leads to logical questions about "What was she doing on there?" which reminds people of Troopergate and the generally questionable way she has operated as mayor and governor.
As for the bailout, I want to see Pelosi ask serious questions instead of just rubber-stamping this "dumb our cr*p" fund. Obama should also ask tough questions about this, as non-PC as that is, and call these deregulators on the carpet.
Keep this in the news, because this economy can't keep adding to its debt like this. And if they do, doesn't this make the idea of tax cuts all the more ridiculous, unless you want this to become the new Weimar Republic?
"The funny thing is, Bush is just a RINO now. But not in the way that most RINOs are, but to some fucked up bizarre extreme no one could have ever imagined.
"
That's fine, but that's what keeps getting said.
If only they had blogs in 1979:
"Nixon was a RINO who increased government, but Reagan will be different."
I work in the credit department at a large bank and we really dont know what to do right now. All of our lending rules are out the window.
" Obama and Pelosi"
Because they aren't socialists, they are liberals.
Liberalism is not socialism, though they are at different points on the same spectrum.
There are some risks. Evidently COMPELLED to testify can only be done by a vote of the full state legislative.
Then they will bring up the sleaze of the trooper, and the fact that she has every right to fire any of her administration for any reason, and anyone has lots of possible reasons.
That's empty legalism and after-the-fact justification. The bottom line is that Palin promised "accountability," and both she and her husband promised that they'd testify. As soon as McCain picked her as his running mate, she reneged on her promises.
This is a about as clear a case as it gets. On the one hand, you've got promises of reform and transparency, and on the other hand you have obstruction and coverup.
As for whether Obama has the "judgment" to figure this out, I'd point out that his campaign started hitting back ONLY after Democrats rose up pretty much en masse and ordered him to do it.
So, like I say, this will tell me a lot about whether or not Obama is serious about hitting back. It's a golden opportunity to attack rather than simply react. We have an high-relief issue of ethics and honor. Come on, Obama. This is not an election for Student Council of Sweetwater High. Go get them!
vernon: I will float to you the wild idea that maybe 5% of the general population knows who the hell Pelosi is, so that's a moot point. As for why we like Obama - what's not to like? And don't give me that socialist-income-redistribution-class-warfare nonsense - tax-wise, he's only planning to return rates to slightly under what we had with Clinton. Big effing deal.
"I work in the credit department at a large bank and we really dont know what to do right now. All of our lending rules are out the window."
Load up on office supplies. Now.
"unless you want this to become the new Weimar Republic?"
That's ultimately where we are headed. The powers that be are just trying to keep the balls in the air for as long as they can.
And ultimately, it will be the poor and middle class that gets the shaft -- as they always do.
"I will float to you the wild idea that maybe 5% of the general population knows who the hell Pelosi is"
I'm hoping she's the next POTUS in my far-fetched 269 scenario that I'm rooting for.
virginia conservative: So how would you classify the US economy right now: capitalist, Soviet, or something in the middle? Right now you are, along with every other tax payer in America, an involuntary owner of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Soviet? Capitalist? What does it say about a "capitalist" system that it has to be propped up by "Soviet" measures to prevent a total global meltdown?
There is nothing "Soviet" about any of this. When you privatize profit and socialize risk, that is called FASCISM, and it fits perfectly with what the Republican are and always have been.
anthony: I know how you feel. There was a hedgefund teleconference going on in my apartment. Cat was intrigued by the hubbub. She is going to get woken up again in a few hours I'm afraid, becauses asses will have to be in gear for the European markets.
"- I mean, qui bono, really?"
meh, maybe you are right.
Maybe the best free-market uber alles moment is just hypothetical. A Nobel prize winning economist, whose name is escaping me at the moment, put out a paper blaming African famine on foreign aid. He laid out plainly, that the problem was this free food was keeping people alive that couldn't afford to be. Once you remove the aid, the problem is over!
Well, I can't argue with that. Assuming these people just accept their fate and die like they should I guess that works. I think in the real world what happens is a bunch of angry, starving, poor people either kill the rich and eat their food, or eat the rich and eat their food. Either way, once you have entered this path you have really, really, divorced yourself from reality and need a smack in the head with a hammer.
charlie: I'm going to go out on a wild limb and say that there is fuckall difference between a Soviet totalitarian top-down-directed economy and a fascist totalitarian top-down-directed economy.
"I'm hoping she's the next POTUS in my far-fetched 269 scenario that I'm rooting for."
Now *that's* a scary thought.
Inkstain -
I'm not a Republican, so calling Bush a RINO from me isn't some kind of defense or shilling. Most RINO's lean left but are Republicans. Bush is like psychotically far-right using government as a solution for everything but not to the benefit of the country, just to the benefit of his own agenda and even using it against the citizens if need be. It's not even really facism or anything. The fucker just acts like a monarch who has the whole kingdom at his disposal.
"Either way, once you have entered this path you have really, really, divorced yourself from reality and need a smack in the head with a hammer."
I would vote for this exact paragraph to be a Constitutional amendment.
So if no one knows who Pelosi is then what are they referencing when they give Congress a 9% approval rating. I bet Bush laughs at Pelosi and Reid on a weekly basis. "Check out the Keystone Kongress," he says to his neocon buddies as the prepare to read from the Necronomican. "What rascally things are they going to do this week before adjourning? Name a library after Saul Alinsky?"
Pelosi is the shrew who says she is preventing the production of domestic oil so that she could cut our reliance on foreign oil.
She also states taht she is trying to save the world.
To hell with Amerikkka though.
"I'm not a Republican, so calling Bush a RINO from me isn't some kind of defense or shilling. Most RINO's lean left but are Republicans. Bush is like psychotically far-right using government as a solution for everything but not to the benefit of the country, just to the benefit of his own agenda and even using it against the citizens if need be. It's not even really facism or anything. The fucker just acts like a monarch who has the whole kingdom at his disposal.
"
Sooo.... Nixon? :)
"Admit it, the left never met a dictator they didn't like."
Like Pinochet? The Shah? Videla? Oh wait, republicans helped put those guys in power.
"Now *that's* a scary thought."
Only for a brief period, before we begin the Obama/Palin administration (this is a really great scenario :))
Pssh. Nixon looks like a saint compared to this.
Thanks ink...
It seems that McCain't woulda seized on that immediately and run with it.... but then he's all over the place and no place at the same time.
Btw, what area do you work in? I'm always interested in your posts, you seem objective and reasonable and know a lot from a lot of different areas or at least what I've read so far.
diogo: you're right. The Left only likes dicators who hate America.
"Pssh. Nixon looks like a saint compared to this."
Well, he led the way. Bush stands on the shoulders of giants.
I am also projecting that Warner will win in Virginia, yet McCain will win by 4.5%. (I'm trickling out my November projections to keep you all in suspense). The "expanding DC suburbs" myth is just spin from Obama and Company to try to drive public opinion and make McCain spend money there.
"Btw, what area do you work in? "
I'm a filthy liberal journalist, advancing my agenda through my coverage of North Dakota high school sports.
Hold your breath, everybody.
It's a big sh*t sandwich and we are all going to have to take a bite.
DarienCrow said...
You have to understand something...
TAXES GO UP... PRICES GO UP AND PEOPLE LOSE JOBS. FACT.
September 18, 2008 7:07 PM
Exactly what will happen if McCain wins.
Do you understand that over 40,000 people alone lost their jobs on Wall Street this week? Why was that? It was Reagan/Bush/McCain trickle down economics and Gramm/McCain deregulation. Empirically proven failure. Game over.
How insulting that McDeregulation would offer up the same policy and twist himself like a pretzel, very transparently, trying to divorce himself from himself. How stupid is any middle/lower income person who would vote for that, AGAIN?
Now Bernanke's running the printing press to make more money to bail out AIG. Watch the dollar nosedive in value. Watch the taxpayers as they are the ones who are ultimately bailing out AIG, lining the pockets of greedy fools who got AIG in the mess it's in now. Essentially this boils down to lower/middle income families rewarding greedy Wall Street predators.
And this isn't going away any time soon. Several more banks will fail between now and November 4th.
Obama rolls back the huge tax cuts Bush gave the upper 3%, restoring them to what they were during the Clinton years, and builds up the middle class with tax decreases (for me 3x what McCain offers). His economic policy is Clintonian - centrist. It's not only time for a change, it's time to fire the Republicans and clean house.
After 10 years of Republican Congressional majority and eight years of Bush, it's the economy, stupid. The choice is very easy for 90% of the American voters.
It's over; McCain's economic policy, authored by Mr. Deregulation himself, Phil Gramm, is a pathetic, insulting failure. Main Street will speak on Nov. 4th. Not all voters are as stupid as McCain obviously thinks they are.
I guess. Nixon abused power to destroy his political enemies. Bush saw that agenda and said "That's good, but how do I get the most out of it for me?"
"diogo: you're right. The Left only likes dicators who hate America."
They like the ones that hate America now.
The right prefers the ones that will pretend to like America, suck up a bunch of foreign aid, then turn on America with the power they've built through us.
"The right prefers the ones that will pretend to like America, suck up a bunch of foreign aid, then turn on America with the power they've built through us."
Are you still describing Bush?
I don't have a problem with the RTC being recreated.
If the Resolution Trust Corp is built properly, then it will actually turn a profit. What it will do is take high risk loans, figure out the odds of failing, and factor that in. So if a loan is worth $100,000 if it had a 0% chance of failing, and has a 50% chance of failing, RTC will buy it for $55,000 or so. Individuals won't touch loans like that because they're too big, and banks won't touch them because they're worthless as collateral- too risky. But on the average, they should make a profit. The AIG deal will also make a big profit.
Two big risks are:
1. The small but real risk of all the loans failing at once knocks the U.S. below AAA. Possible, but I can't imagine it happening. It would take a second housing bubble the sizeof the first one to cause across the board loan failures.
2. Massive inflation for a year or two. After all, the government is buying these loans with made up money. That's going to greatly increase M2.
I honestly don't see a better resolution. It did work with the state S&Ls, after all.
Obama stands on the shoulders of giants as well. Jesse Jackson in '88 and the Rev-er-end Al Sharpton in 2004 blazed a trail for him. Community organizers are the best our culture has to offer. No wonder Pelosi said that Obama was a "blessing from God at this time". May his imminence bless us at this difficult time.
"Are you still describing Bush?"
Which Bush? It applies to both. And Reagan.
As an Iowan, I can say that poll is absolute bullshit. Obama wins Iowa by no fewer than four points. Absolutely minimum.
V Con said:
Despite what you hear, the majority of debt is owed to other Americans. Even among the debt which is owed to foreign countries, most of it is owned by allies (especially Holland, Britain, and Japan) or neutral countries (Singapore, Dubai).
Mainland China's share is pretty small."
I worked for a commercial bank that was part of the Farm Credit System (a GSE) and our CEO said that the #1 buyer of our bonds was China. I don't know what their actual % was, but a fair portion of our agribusiness is dependent on China. It will be a sad day if they ever decide to stop buying.
Unrelated topic here. I just looked over one of those lists that claim to rank who's the most liberal or conservative people in congress. I always thought that those lists were bunk but actually seeing this on the list proved it to me. National Journal's list of the most liberal Republicans listed Ron Paul as the 2nd most liberal Republican in the House of Reps. in 2005. Yes, Ron Paul.
"So if a loan is worth $100,000 if it had a 0% chance of failing, and has a 50% chance of failing, RTC will buy it for $55,000 or so. I"
I get your point, but that's a losing proposition.
The other problem is that it's very, very hard to get a handle on how bad this debt really is. That's why it was acquired in the first place, it was camoflaged.
dariencrow:
I know I'm late to this thread, but...
On whether it's patriotic to raise/pay taxes. McCain's campaign is supposedly "country first." How is it country first to send troops halfway around the world and not have the courage to ask the American people to pay for it? Is it more patriotic to borrow the money from China?
If we're going to put country before the "me-first" crowd that McCain disdains, damn right we should be asking for a tax hike. It's shameful that we say we want a war and force a fraction of a percent of our citizens to bear the entire burden.
But McCain's campaign is really me-first. Send the troops to fight while the rest of us are promised still more tax cuts. He hasn't asked a single thing of us to put country over our own selfish needs. His "country first" slogan is completely vapid. It's an embarrassment to anyone who takes duty to country seriously.
"This is a joke, right?"
No, sadly, he really is that stupid.
There arent a lot of dictators left.
Another thing: for everyone that glooms and dooms about Democratic Control of 3 branches of government.
Most of Carters problems were his inability to influence events largely out of his control.
"On whether it's patriotic to raise/pay taxes. McCain's campaign is supposedly "country first." How is it country first to send troops halfway around the world and not have the courage to ask the American people to pay for it? Is it more patriotic to borrow the money from China?"
Yes. Loving America means loving Americans. And loving Americans means understanding that they are special and the world must pay tribute. The laws of economics need not apply.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Y2U4ZDc5OGRiZDE4NDg1NDY5NDczMWYyY2Q4MDgxNDc=
Here's a good article called "Dictators and Democrats" by Victor Davis Hanson for your perusal.
VA is in play this year and very well may flip in 2012.
that being said, WI and MN may flip the other way in 2016
I enjoyed it.
When Palin runs in 2016 after eight great years of McCain leadership her well-known folksy, woodsy persona will appeal greatly to Wisconsin and Minnesota residents leading to her 47-state landslide. Write that down. It will happen.
"eight great years of McCain leadership"
McCain will be lucky to live another eight years. I'm certain he's a one-termer voluntarily on the odd chance he wins.
Charles-
What is your level of education, sir? To quote Joseph Biden, 2008 VP candidate "I bet my IQ is higher than yours". I say this in response to your "No, he really is that stupid" comment. I learn from the best like Joe "Stand Up If You're Disabled" Biden.
I cant see Mitt Romney or Bobby Jindal(who is probably the future of the GOP) letting Palin win in 2012.
I dont think Iowa or NH will be kind to Palin.
Diss community organizers all you like, but the organization/GOTV dynamic of the Obama campaign will be discussed as the model for victory in every election
post 2008. If Obama was like Sharpton/Jackson, he wouldn't be prepping for next week's PRESIDENTIAL debate.
I really do not understand why people who bitch about the model are always visiting this site (and commenting). If someone thinks the model is wrong, wny do they not go elsewhere, or come up with their own model and website.
Honestly, put up or shut up.
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/17587
"Electoral College Polling Model Not Good for Obama"
Interesting math analysis. I wonder how it will hold up in 48 days.
vernon: "NewsTrack India"? Oh yes, their fingers are firmly on the American pulse.
By the way Charles, I'm just kidding. I'm really not that arrogant. Let's be pals, okay?
Your new friend, Vern :)
"McCain Loss Probably Best for GOP Long-Term"
www.dailyplanet.com/cityblog/Kent-LaneBlog/
"Rasmussen Reports, the Quinnipiac University Poll, and SurveyUSA"
Strike one, arbitrarily limited sample.
"Jacobson's model employs Bayesian estimators (which help scientists make decisions when conditions are uncertain) to determine the probability that a candidate will win each state.
"
Strike two, he appeared to have run each state as an independent variable each run.
"Diss community organizers all you like, but the organization/GOTV dynamic of the Obama campaign will be discussed as the model for victory in every election
post 2008. "
I see..B Hussien will be living up to his namesake when it comes to reelection?
"I see..B Hussien will be living up to his namesake when it comes to reelection?"
You are better than that. I hope.
I am not above telling a B Hussein joke.
What I dont get is why sometimes people take jokes ilke this as if they were a personal attack on them.
Lorda merci, no wonder these get so long I can't keep up.
Isn't there a better way to read old posts than this cracked out way of looking at newer posts and clicking older posts to refresh?
Where's CPME and the tourette fits?
Vincep1974 is right. If Obama wins in 2008 he will win the next eight elections with 100% margins each time.
axmxz-
It's actually from Rush Limbaugh's web site quoting a professor at the University of Illinois at Urvana Champaign working with collaborators at SIU-Edwardsville and involves 4,000 analysts and experts in analytics. Go ahead ignore it. You're smarter than all those people I'm sure. Just stick to your Kos-funded polls and you'll see that Obama is leading in every state because... well because people on Kos don't know anyone voting for McCain.
Question: How often do you "hey it's not xenophobic to call someone by their middle name ;)" folks refer to John McCain as "J. SYDNEY"?
'Nuff said.
I gave two specific problems I had with their methodology.
Making Rasmussen, a notorious R+2 poster, one of the only three you use is a good way to skew your results in and of itself.
You can call McCain "J. Sydney". Doesn't bother me. If his name was "J. Bin Laden McCain" it might be an issue. Who would have thought after 9/11 someone with the middle name "Hussein" would be so close to the presidency. Oh, but we can't say that. It's racist or country-ist or something, right? Maybe if Barry went by Sotiero he'd be better served. The 527 ads are going to be classic in about a month.
And having just moved from that area after living there most of my life, I can say with confidence I'm smarter than any SIU-C guys. The UIUC guys might be tougher.
I never heard people complain about the obvious tactic of trying to associate Bush with the widest letter of the alphabet, W.
Inkstain -
I don't even understand that site's model. Their map, even on "mild republican" swing, still shows a better likelihood of Kerry+IA+NM+CO than a McCain win. Yet they predict a McCain win as more likely? Huh? That doesn't make sense.
"No peacetime capitalist democracy has ever experienced shortages. Ever. Not even in the Great Depression. Shortages are caused by central government planning."
Couldn't you only get gas on certain days depending on if your license plate number ended in an odd or even number in the late
1970's? I was a young child at the time, but I have a vauge memory of it.
Sorry Vernon, but you miss the point. None of the folks who keep referencing HUSSEIN are doing so with SYDNEY.
You people can try and deny it all day and claim there is no malicious intent, but please, give me one valid reason to keep singling out Obama for his middle name other then to tacitly imply that he is somehow "foreign" or a "terrorist".
It's playing to the fears of xenophobes and racists. Disgusting, but I wouldn't expect anything less from the "values" party.
If you think that the 527s are going to save you at this point, well, you might as well get used to saying "president. B. HUSSEIN" :)
Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on people "I DECLARE YOU: ZEEEEEEEEE NOOOOOOO FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFOBE"
"Oh the angry left have to decree their judgment on people "I DECLARE YOU: ZEEEEEEEEE NOOOOOOO FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFOBE"
Mispronouncing words in a mock? Racist.
Vernon said:
"Admit it, the left never met a dictator they didn't like."
Not true. I don't like Bush.
Lol, does the right really want to get into a who supports what dictator fight? Listen, just study United States-Latin American relations over the past century and tell me what's more important to our government? Democracy or capitalism? The answer is obvious because the U.S. has supported quite a list of right-wing dictators down there over the years. It has to infuriate anyone who knows this history to see Bush II spew his freedom/democracy for all nations bullshit now.
Sedi-
I was not refering to you or some of the other more statistically inclined posters, of which I am not one.
I was refering to the "wah-wah bias-bias" posters. Speaking of which I am surprised Mid Point Man hasn't posted recently? I almost miss hearing how this is great news for McCain. :)
If I think something is crap, I don't take bite after bite of it all the while complaining that it is crap.
Embarassing day for pollsters. Pile of crap, worthy of ARG yesterday. (Regardless of which McBama you support.)
Speaking about latin america. Funny McCain interview: http://www.usnews.com/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2008/09/18/john-mccain-gets-confused-about-spain-but-his-advisers-get-dumb.html
Re Geoff's comment about Nate's bias clouding his objectiveness....
It does an analyst no good to subjectively predict a more desirable outcome than he can mathematically defend. The result of such a bias would be to underestimate the risks and opportunities associated with deploying media and other tactics, especially at the state level. Most analysts are conservative - they overestimate risks to compensate for potential sampling error, the logic being you'd rather win by 5% than lose by 1%.
can anyone please define how the younger generation doesn't have a primary home phone listed so can't get surveyed and how this affects polls?
Hey all,
This post is my first one here.
I have not had the time to go over everything this site has to offer yet, but I was wondering what the columns on the left-hand side of the page (that are broken u by regions: New England, Acela, etc.,) mean when they say Obama: 0%, McCain: 100%? How could there be a 100-0% ratio in one state?
Thanks!
In the Bradley effect voters, particularly Democrats said in public and in polls they would vote for Bradley but in the privacy of the voting booth voted their prejudice. The parallel now is that Republicans will say in public and in polls they will vote for McCain but in the privacy of the voting booth will vote their choice for Obama.
Looking back on this, some Conservative pundit will write that the single biggest "mistake" McCain made in this election was to agree to go to "Ground Zero" with Obama under a temporary truce.
It allowed many "indie" voters to have a pre-Debate image of McCain and Obama on equal footing as they honored the heros and the fallen. Which makes any future "Obama's not a patriot" or "Obama is a secret muslim" attack a lot tougher for just a couple million of voters to swallow.
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