I'm not going to be able to do today's update justice, but let's touch upon a couple of themes quickly:
Firstly, Obama has been polling a couple of points ahead of our trendline for the past couple days. That could be noise, or it could be a sign that the race is turning a bit. Our model inherently behaves conservatively, and assumes the former until "proven" otherwise.
Secondly, Obama obviously got a very good number in Virginia today. That is not enough to turn the state into a toss-up all by itself; we still have Virginia as lean McCain. However, Virginia may well be a better path to 270 electoral votes for Obama than Ohio, where he got a not-so-good number from Suffolk.
Thirdly, someone polled Delaware! Our model (which knew nothing about Joe Biden) had previously seen Delaware as being about a 7-point race, so a +12 for Obama there suggests about a 5-point Biden bump. That's actually not bad as far as a VP candidate goes, but nothing compared to Sarah Palin.
9.15.2008
Today's Polls, 9/15
@ 3:45 PM
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1129 comments
susa ohio mccain +4
New SUSA poll you didnt get
OHIO McCain 49
Obama 45
8 point difference to the virginia poll, which while possible means one of the two is likely a little off
McCain's convention bounce will disappear soon. (Day 11)
I bet the race tightens back up by weeks end. The economy, snl, and Obama winning the latest news cycle will bring the polls back down to partison Earth. The next big poll swing will either be a "major" gaffe or the first debate. It will be interesting to see who loses their brand first as the attack ads heat up. McCain may be first, but Obama will surely be affected too.
Call it noise all you want, this Obama supporter is taking it as a sign of the turning tide. After days of dropping numbers, I'll cling to an upturn like a Republican to their guns and religion.
So it was a bounce after all, in 2 regards: in pure polling numbers and in the media infatuation/coverage of Palin (see today's ABC news story: http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/Story?id=5804703&page=1).
I'd be very interested in seeing how the prediction of the superimposed bounces was actually borne out in practice. In addition, I expect that Obama has a relatively large "blind spot" in ALL the polling due to new registrants. Perhaps we will all be happily surprised at election time if we see all polling should have been pulled a little in Obama's direction.
I just hope this gets decided by issues and not a gaffe or crazy negative politics.
PA, VA, OH, FL - have we heard this record before? MI is not in play, at least I hope not.
Hmm Oregon +6 or +7 looks real.
I think the New York number is a little low but I think it can be explained by the 9/11 factor and the huge number of Clnton women who might have been intrigued by the Sarah Palin pick. New York is probably the place that wanted Hillary Clinton the most (well.. and Arkansas), and I guess Sarah Palin had quite some effect there (which will fade as the election goes on).
Virginia is a little too good to be true, especially compared to SUSA´s North Carolina number. I think it´s obvious now that the North Carolina poll was seriously flawed - too many Reps, not enough Dems and other demographics. The real state of the state is probably around +5 McCain at the moment. Virginia however remains a brilliant pick-up chance for Obama. It´s a state that doesn´t get enough credit in the general perception of Obama´s chances. If Obama wins Virginia he can affort to lose Michigan (only with Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico though).
I actually think Ohio is the worst chance of Obama to win the race (out of the obvious possibilities). Ohio needs a populist and Obama isn´t one. Clinton is campaigning there today...but Republicans know how to play the state.
Still, if Obama continues to address the economy in the grand way he did today (talking about the system -> bottom-up instead of top-down -> a subtle push of class consciousness) he might actually turn into something of an intellectual populist... sounds weird, but I see the chance.
mazza-
Cell phone only bling spot as well? Only Gallup claims to cover cell phones, and it really doesn't say how.
I think we are still in the "Too Early To Tell" phase of this election. 50 or so days is like 50 years in election time. This is anyone's race at the moment according to all numbers out there, IMHO. Each side has reason to hope that their candidate is pulling ahead. The dabates should be very interesting and should show us a more clear frontrunner. If they don't it's going to be a nail-biter until the very end.
The sudden drop in favorability ratings for both McCain and Palin more be the leading indicator that their poll numbers will also drop.
McCain went too negative too early. The backlash is setting in. Palin is not able to withstand any scrutiny and is developing into a negative.
Well, it is nice to see Obama's numbers going up a few points for a change.
Glad to hear Biden locked down those 3 EVs in my home state.
NY drops to 93%, VA rises to 33%, DE goes up to 95%.
Obama goes up about 2 to 250 EVs, and up 0.4% in the win probability (surprised it shot up a whole % yesterday) and 0.1% in the pop vote.
Still a lot of polls to go today (the SUSA Ohio one with yet another M+4 will probably dip Obama's state win % to only about 27 or so.)
Fred: I expect it's more than that. Newly registered voters may be disproportionately those with unusual/shifting work/rest patterns which may be very hard to control for. And all but the most sensitive of likely voter models will throw out a newly registered 55 year old who has never voted!
I'm a first time poster, and this is off thread topic.
Imagine the following scene a few days from now:
Sen. Obama is standing with Sen. Clinton, President Clinton, and all the Democratic leaders of the Senate and House. Senator Obama speaks:
"Today I am announcing my personal commitment to establish universal health care in my first term. I'm signing that pledge here today.
I listened to Sen. Clinton. She convinced me that we need to set the goal to cover all Americans--now!
Former President John F. Kennedy set the goal to get mankind on the moon. When he did so, he didn't have all the "how-to" answers, but he had the will and the intention.
I have the will and intention to do the same for universal health care coverage. Elections should be about big things. And with your support we will finally bring health care coverage to all Americans."
I think this announcement would really fire up all of Sen. Clinton's supporters. He can't go back and pick her for VP as many might want. But he can make her most important policy idea his own.
Would this announcement move the tracking polls? I think so. What do you think? I'm concerned that if things continue to drift we may be in for four more years of McSame.
McCain's new ad (post-Lehman Bros) calls for tougher regulations on Wall Street -- that's some conservative they've got themselves there!
As for the polls, I agree that we are seeing the end of the bounce. And as the voters focus again on the economy, that should help Obama.
The model really isn't dealing well with the blowout states, as it is certain McCain will win his (true) but far less certain that Obama will win his (which he will). So it has Obama winning NY only 93% of the time and CA only 86% of the time. No honest person, even a conservative, can realistically claim that McCain has a 14% chance of winning CA. Or an 8% chance of winning HI. Or an % chance of winning OR.
None of this really matters, of course, since the win % here is just sort of fun, it doesn't necessarily reflect some underlying reality. But it does mean we should take the win % with a grain of salt.
OH looks much better for McCain right now, with 3 polls showing a 4-point lead this week. I still think it is an important and a winnable state for Obama, but it's looking less good for him that CO, for sure. Whether it stays that way is another question.
gwill2k8,
The current news cycle is teetering between, on the one hand, complaints that the McCain camp is not being honest in their attack ads and is out of touch on the economy and, on the other hand, potential blowback from the "keyboard" fiasco, Zebari claims that Obama quietly tried to negotiate with Iraq about troop withdrawals for political purposes, and the Fannie/Freddie contribution situation.
I think Obama is on the shakier ground here. We'll see how it plays out. The Zebari allegations could be huge, or they could turn out to be false. We'll see how it plays out.
He already did the timeline thing with being off foreign oil. I think it would be silly and absurd to think he could commit to two such large endeavors and maintain any kind of credibility with the voting public.
I like the guy and even I wouldn't believe he could accomplish both in the same time frame, let alone universal healthcare in the first term alone.
This would totally elicit a "yeah, right, now you've gone too far" response.
Rasmussen: At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
This should be a lot of fun!
With Fox.
BenFranklin,
The last time a Democrat was attacked for "undermining the president's foreign policy," it was Nancy Pelosi, and she emerged with her favorability ratings up five points.
The +4 in VA is a clear indication of the faltering maverick image McCain has lost. I predict at this pace, McCain will win only Alaska and possibly squeak by in Idaho.
How does Siena's record hold up against other pollsters? I don't see them on the pollster ratings list. A 5 point lead in NY seems too small to be believable, even in the midst of a Republican convention bounce. In fact, there was only one other poll where Obama held less than a 10 pt advantage, and that poll was taken by Siena too.
Sounds good to me Laurence, but might rock the boat too much with the anti-Clinton+anti-big gov crowds, and McCain could try some phony spin like "Barack takes up Clinton's failed health care plans".
Ohio and Virginia are irrelevant.
The mostly likely road to 270 for Obama is Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado.
This election will be decided in Colorado.
Laurence,
Your idea is good but this week definitely is not when it should be done. It is obvious the Federal government is absorbing huge liabilities in its effort to keep Wall Street and the banks afloat.
A fully mandated healthcare package would add to that liability. BTW, that is one of the points Obama made during the primaries in debates with Hillary.
sedi-
The state percentage numbers do matter, because is that what the win percentage number is based on (10000 simulations of each national election, with those percentages).
If your complaint is real, the win percentage is higher for Obama and lower for McCain.
Yeah, keep an eye out for Rasmussen's release.
If they have Obama up in VA by any amount, I would consider that some pretty good confirmation and start to look much more closely at various scenarios where Obama wins VA.
Of course, there's also CO, OH, PA, and FL to keep us all happy.
I agree, euklid, I've been watching CO on pins and needles. My nerves ought to be just about shot by Nov 4th.
VA and OH are highly relevant. I do not want to go into November 4 with only one path to victory.
I think FL is in play too, 600000 new voters!
Please defend MI, without MI we really need OH or VA or FL.
I live in Utah. McCain is running ads here. Why?
Tell the thousands of us volunteers and paid staffers that are canvassing on the weekends here in VA that VA is irrelevant.
"Rasmussen: At 6:00 p.m. Eastern, new state polling will be released for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia."
Excellent, lets go ahead and make some projections now, so there isnt quite so much spin when they come out.
These are mine:
Colorado- Obama +2
Florida- McCain +5
Ohio- McCain +5
Pennsylvania Obama +4
Virginia- McCain +1
post your own projections, just so we have a baseline of what numbers we should be looking for
Here's what happened today on Wall Street.
Enjoy!
cincyr-
UT is in play! (shhh, don't tell McCain he is up 60%).
Hat tip to euklid you are right - the election comes down to CO.
Quick point - the Obama grassroots efforts registers as many people as possible. They do not have a partisan screen. All interested, D, R, I, or Other are registered.
I mention that because "total registered" does not necessarily mean Democrat.
wait a second...
someone polled Delaware! Our model (which knew nothing about Joe Biden) had previously seen Delaware as being about a 7-point race, so a +12 for Obama there suggests about a 5-point Biden bump.
ummmm... but you said you were tweaking the model... not treating it as a bump but as a discontinuity...
For purposes of calculating the trendline curve, I'm treating the pre-Palin and post-Palin Alaska polls as discontinuous series, since it's not quite fair to ding Obama with a 30-point hit. We'll do the same with Delaware polls, if anyone decides to survey that state again.
cincy - national ads.
Good idea re predictions, i'll post mine in a minute re 6pm polls. I might get them at five as subcriber
I think Rasmussen cooks the books, and places each poll up by at least 2 over the real polling based on the new "party ID" correction weekly.
Colorado- Obama +1
Florida- McCain +7
Ohio- McCain +5
Pennsylvania Obama +2
Virginia- tied
Remember to take at least 2 off McCain when comparing to prior polls.
Geoff, it´s true the results of Rasmussen.
cincyr said...
I live in Utah. McCain is running ads here. Why?
Because GWB helped him learn to love wasteful spending?
He's running ads in Utah? I mean, on the one hand, that's great!! Let him spend all the money he wants in states he doesn't need to. On the other hand, I weep for our future if the geniuses he has running his campaign are the same caliber as those who fill his cabinet if he wins.
And even if Ras finds FL up 7 for McCain, I still think it is in play!
My predictions:
Colorado: Obama +1
Florida: McCain +8
Ohio: McCain +6
Pennsylvania: Obama +2
Virginia: McCain +2
My Rasmussen predictions:
Colorado- Obama +1
Florida- McCain +3
Ohio- McCain +5
Pennsylvania Obama +3
Virginia- Tie
Joe,
Well, setting aside that if the claims are true it undermines Obama's own message regarding troop withdrawals, do you really think this would be anything but a disaster for Obama with general election voters? This would be a huge strike against Obama but one must conclude at this point that the reporter, not known for unbiased reporting, has misquoted Zebari. If Zebari confirms the remarks, things are going to get very interesting.
Colorado- McCain +1
Florida- McCain +7
Ohio- McCain +4
Pennsylvania Obama +2
Virginia- McCain +2
On CNN right now:
Obama says that if you believe McCain's Republican policies will fix the economy... "I've got a bridge to sell you up in Alaska".
I like the bridge for sale in AK line. Brings up her negatives without mentioning her.
Obama must hold MI, and PA
Beyond that, I think the Election comes down to CO, VA, OH, FL.
Any one of those going for Obama will more than likely be the tipping point.
There is a lot more of a chance for dramatic overperformance in VA, FL, and OH, than in CO in my humble opinion,
On the other hand, CO is probably the easiest of the three to "feel good" about going into election day.
Predictions:
Colorado - Tie
Florida - M+5
Ohio - M+7
Pennsylvania - O+4
Virginia - M+1
There was an article around the Fourth of July in the Centre County Pennsylvania Daily Times where the Obama camp argued that, for every new registrant of voters, about half will go to the polls AND vote for Obama. No other breakdowns provided.
What's their model all about? How did they arrive at that number? Why? Curious minds want to know!
Fred,
Are you ever going to stop accusing Ras of cooking the books because his party ID shows movement towards the Reps?? Is it really hard for you to believe that more people are self-identifying as Reps after the Palin pick and the convention?? It's not like he's the only pollster to report that.
Ras' entire methodology is based on party ID. You can debate whether it's a correct approach, but it's the same one he's had for years. And since he has a relationship with this site, I'd say Nate isn't exactly in disagreement with the approach.
Smitty - you are right but I expect the demographics of newly registered voters (particularly if they haven't just qualified to vote by turning 18) will be highly biased in the Dems' direction. Republicans in general see voting as more of a civic duty than Dems do so I would guess that there are fewer unfound GOP voters lurking out there.
My predictions.
Colorado: Obama +2
Florida: McCain +3
Ohio: McCain +6
Penn: Obama +3
Virginia: Tie
Regarding the SUSA VA poll: no wonder Obama's ahead, he's getting 87% of Dems while McCain gets only 80% of Reps.
I also want to pose a general question, and SUSA gives me an excuse to do it. Their sample has 900 adults. They consider 732 of these to be likely voters. But there's no way that 81% of adults are going to vote. So is there a pretty big chunk of adults with a 51-75% likelihood of voting that is getting counted at full value in every poll of likely voters? Wouldn't it make some sense to try to discount the preferences of "likely voters" relative to "certain voters"?
If you're anywhere near the edges of UT, it makes sense that CO, NV and NM media markets would bleed over.
SNL did not hurt Palin...
It portrayed her as classy, and not so naive...
@Ohio Susa
McCain has a better result between 35-49 (age) as 50-64 again. A trend?
Prediction
Colorado - Obama +2
Florida - McCain +4
Ohio - McCain +2
Pennsylvania - Obama +4
Virginia - Tie
New Slogan:
Olds with Barack.
millco-
I just want folks to know that Ras numbers are being changed in two ways, not one. If you like his party Id model compare directly, if you don't take two point five off McCain when comparing.
Did he change his party ID model in 2000 and 2004 froma monthly change to a weekly change like he did this time? I sure did not see that, but I was not following as closely. Isn't this the first year he has used this weekly voter party ID change?
Fred - disagree re Alaska. That will be spun on Fox and talk radio as Obama continuing his mental focus on Palin.
Bad for him today.
Obama is looking less Presidential with every passing day.
His whining about the tone of the campaign is also noteworthy because he is following the same pattern Dukakis did.
He is still unable to get specific on what the problem is with the economy.
He keeps regurgitating "failed Bush economic policies" without saying what the specific problem is.
He just repeats left wing tropes endlessly. These lines did not work before, why does he think they will now?
He is clueless...
Mazza,
I've only seen one poll that actually asked the preferences of the newly registered, i.e., since 2006. It was the Fox poll and it was Obama 47-44. Obviously not a good sign for Obama, but I would like to see that question other places.
Anyone seen that question asked anywhere else??
geoff-
That is a stretch I am not sure even Fox can make...
Optimistic Prediction:
Colorado: Obama +5
Florida: Tie
Ohio: Tie
Pennsylvania: Obama +5
Virginia: Obama +2
Ben Franklin - has anyone confirmed the Zebari story, and are there any other sources besides the NEW YORK POST?
I was wondering if you had a more credible source, such as the National Enquirer, or the Weekly World News?
Oh lookie what's happening in our Number 4 supplier of oil:
Militants attack Shell facility in Nigeria
12 hours ago
LAGOS (AFP) — Militants on Monday attacked a Shell facility in Nigeria's restive southern Delta region, a day after an armed group declared an "oil war," a military official said.
The most prominent armed group in the region, MEND, which had declared the "oil war", immediately said it was responsible for the attack in Rivers State, claiming to have destroyed the Anglo-Dutch group's Alakiri station.
No one knows who supports and finances this group that presents itself as the champion of Nigeria's 14 million Ijaw people. Nothing is known of the number of fighters it can call upon.
Andy - yes, common throughout many polls. Odd, but the 60's generation seems to like Obama more than Gen - X.
That's the stuff of historian musing 50 years from now :)
"Obama is looking less Presidential with every passing day."
Don't worry, I'm sure he'll be looking a lot more presidential on Jan 20, 2009 ;)
my predictions:
Colorado +2 Obama
Florida +1 Obama
Ohio +6 McCain
Virginia +1 Obama
Pennsylvania +1 Obama
I can't wait to hear Nancy Pelosi tell me that she is trying to save the world and thus she won't let the handmaidans of Big Oil get domestic supply
MPM - Really? "I can see Russia from my house?"
Realistic Prediction
CO: Obama +2
FL: McCain +3
OH: McCain +1
PA: Obama +5
VA: Tie
Fred -
If you are whining about the Ras party ID, that will not get you far.
He always overestimates for the Dems, always.
2004:
Ras Dems+2
Actual Dems+0
2006:
Ras Dems+6
Actual Dems+3
If you want an accurate picture, ad 2-3 points to McCain.
The highest Dem Party ID advantage in recent history was 1996 Dem +4.
That was with Dole who failed to energize the Republican base.
They are highly energized this year.
My Ras projections:
CO: O+4 (or better, all polling has shown Obama up in CO and McCain's bounce should have faded some since their last poll)
FL: M+2 (their prior poll showing a tie must be an outlier; reversion to the mean here)
OH: M+6 (one point down from their prior poll here)
PA: O+3 (again one point swing toward O from their prior poll)
VA: O+1 (am I the only person thinking they'll find Obama up in VA? Their prior poll agreed with SUSA on M+2 at the height of McCain's bounce. I expect some confirmation of the bounce SUSA found, weaker though because SUSA doesn't weight by party ID)
Fred,
In 2004, he changed it later but that was also a very different election, considering there was an incumbent running. A lot of the old rules don't apply this year since this is the first time in 56 years that no one's really defending the record of the current administration.
You're basically accusing him of changing it SOLELY to help McCain. That's a bit disingenuous. It could be he's simply trying to be as accurate as possible. Perish the thought of a pollster actually doing that.
Shap,
No, I haven't seen confirmation. Presumably everyone is trying to contact Zebari to confirm. I think the allegation should be taken with a fistful of salt at this point. The fact that the Post has Zebari recalling the conversation on record is what makes it rather hard to dismiss out of hand.
nicholas... you call that optimistic? I call it downright dreaming. Although a very lovely dream.
millco88:
I'd bet that numbers of those who've registered since the race started in earnest (say, since March or so) would be rather different than those since 2006: were people who turned 18 included in that poll?
real mike -
Of course they were going to make fun of her...
But they also portrayed her as smartly digging at Hillary's emotions.
They portrayed her as savvy, but not necessarily well-informed.
But nobody expects her to be a foreign policy expert yet.
Bill Clinton was no foreign policy expert, neither was George Bush.
Governing Arkansas is not any more impressive than Alaska.
She is also the VP.
To get 80% approvals you have to be doing something right.
Colorado- Obama +2
Florida- McCain +1
Ohio- McCain +6
Pennsylvania Obama +3
Virginia- McCain +2
Ras has been pretty stable in these states and only in OH has he seemed to be a bit heavy on the McCain support compared to others.
If he comes close to these numbers I'd have to say he had a good week in polling because they will be very clost to last week. There are no events that could explain wild swings from the last Ras polls here.
Prediction:
Colorado: Obama +3
Florida: McCain +2
Ohio: McCain +4
Penn: Obama +3
Virginia: Tie
Prediction
CO: Obama +2
FL: McCain +2
OH: McCain +3
PA: Obama +2
VA: Obama +1
Palin negative in CO, FL, VA
Positive in OH, PA
And don't get me wrong. I would LOVE there to be more than one way to the white house for Obama, but no matter how I split it, I keep coming down to CO and NM... and MI, of course, if that race gets any closer.
IA is the gift I wasn't expecting. I don't know why. They went with Clinton twice and with Gore, but I just wasn't expecting it.
I'm in PA and know we'll go Obama, but where I live... holy cow. You'd never know it.
Millco-
I am not accusing him of solely changing to help McCain, but this is a polling website and that is the effect.
That is fine, but then add his headlines that are pro-repug and his polling for Fox and going on their airwaves...there is smaoke. I have no fire, and likely never will.
I would love to see if his polling bias goes up or down over the next month or so, if it goes down so his house effect is less repug I will be impressed with the change.
My call:
CO - Tie
FL - M+6
OH - M+4
PN - O+3
VA - M+3
That Virginia poll is an outlier, the internals prove it. Here is what is off:
1. Only 16% of responders were 65+.
2. 58% of responders 49 or under.
3. Only 80% of Republicans support McCain? Only 80% of Conservatives support him? That number should be north of 85%.
4. Shennandoah Valley has been going for McCain at least +20% in every SurveyUSA Virgnia poll and now is only +9%. Nothing has happened that would cause such a sharp drop.
Yeah, what am I thinking... Ohio is going to be up 7 for McCain.
Fred, mark my words, i'll send you a link tomorow :)
Colorado - Tie
Florida - M+2
Ohio - M+6
Pennsylvania - O+2
Virginia - M+3
Also, as an aside, Obama is now locked in on Iraqigate - so it stands to reason there is no story.
September 15, 2008
Categories: Barack Obama
Obama campaign contests Taheri column
The Obama campaign is challenging Amir Taheri's column in today's New York Post, which says that during his visit to Iraq, Obama asked Iraqi leaders to postpone a final agreement on U.S. troops until the next administration takes office. Taheri reported:
While campaigning in public for a speedy withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, Sen. Barack Obama has tried in private to persuade Iraqi leaders to delay an agreement on a draw-down of the American military presence.
According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Obama made his demand for delay a key theme of his discussions with Iraqi leaders in Baghdad in July.
"He asked why we were not prepared to delay an agreement until after the US elections and the formation of a new administration in Washington," Zebari said.
An Obama aide accused Taheri of confusing the Status of Forces agreement with a Strategic Framework Agreement, for which Obama has pushed for congressional review.
"This article bears as much resemblance to the truth as a McCain campaign commercial. Barack Obama has consistently called for any Strategic Framework Agreement to be submitted to the U.S. Congress so that the American people have the same opportunity for review as the Iraqi Parliament," said Obama spokeswoman Wendy Morigi. "Unlike John McCain, he supports a clear timetable to redeploy our troops that has the support of the Iraqi government. Barack Obama has never urged a delay in negotiations, nor has he urged a delay in immediately beginning a responsible drawdown of our combat brigades."
Mazza,
It was just people who registered since 2006 regardless of age. Obviously, there's a high margin of error there because of sample size. The only reason I bring it up is because I haven't seen it asked anywhere else, yet it seems like a pretty important factor in that race.
I'm hoping it gets other pollsters to ask the question so we can get a feel for whether that's a real number, an outlier, a bounce number, etc.
I don't know about the rest of you (or you especially Nate) but the Survey USA poll doesn't make sense. If you read the internals on it, in one week's time McCain went from up 11 pts with men to a tie. From being up 14 pts to only 1 pt ahead in voters 50+ yrs old. 21 pts ahead with independents a week ago to 4 pts in this poll. And most incredulous, McCain gains in heavily Democratic DC suburbs and Obama gains in Shenandoah and Central VA! It's polls like this that shouldn't be added into polling averages because it so obviously out of step with all other polls in the state. It just doesn't make sense!
@ Amy re: Iowa.
Ethanol, ethanol, ethanol.
:-)
MI is key, if BO cannot defend it he neeeds another big Eastern state. VA is most likely.
Rasmussen had Gore winning by 9 points in 2000, although that was a computer voice poll.
Predictions:
Colorado - O +1
Florida - M+2
Ohio - M+3
Pennsylvania - O+2
Virginia - M+2
"Don't worry, I'm sure he'll be looking a lot more presidential on Jan 20, 2009 ;)"
Yeah, when he's president of Obamastan (formerly known as the city of Chicago). Obama has looked like an ineffectual twerp on the stump today -- whining about income inequality while McCain proposes tighter regulation of Wall St, less government to make America more competitive, and drilling to solve the energy crisis. Obama proposed...nothing. Who do you think people will vote for: the guy with plan or the guy that's got no clue what is going on. It doesn't even matter if you think McCain's ideas are bad or contradictory -- he proposed action while Obama dithered.
And, by the way, the story about Obama wanting to keep American soliders in harm's way to help his election will blow up, true or not. You can watch the states flip to red when that happens.
Michigan will go to Obama.
It´s the most progressive state in the rusbelt and the MI rural counties are less conservatives than OH and PA rural counties.
You can see that in the 2004 election.
realistxxx said...
On CNN right now:
Obama says that if you believe McCain's Republican policies will fix the economy... "I've got a bridge to sell you up in Alaska".
That's what happens to liars; they turn into a joke. On a related note Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge said “Sarah knows how to field-dress a moose. I know how to castrate a calf. Neither of those things has anything at all to do with this election. But since we know so much about Sarah’s special skills, I wanted to make sure you knew about mine too”. See?
So is the whiney Obama going to lace every sentence with "John McCain"
That is going to get annoyingn really quick
"Who do you think people will vote for: the guy with plan or the guy that's got no clue what is going on"
The guy with the plan. Obama, that is.
"Who do you think people will vote for: the guy with plan or the guy that's got no clue what is going on."
Oh, I think we know quite clearly.
SUSA Virginia poll has 3% Party ID shift in favor of the Dems. From their last poll to the current poll.
These are mine:
Colorado- Obama +3
Florida- McCain +4
Ohio- McCain +2
Pennsylvania Obama +5
Virginia- Obama+2
Amy - I agree, CO and NM.
Iowa, its all about ethanol. McCain has fought ethanol subsidies. That's it.
""Who do you think people will vote for: the guy with plan or the guy that's got no clue what is going on."
The second.
McCain is right on ethanol subsidies. It'd be ironic, to me, if that cost him the election.
And Dario, brother, I love ya, but I have enough proof on 8 Mile that something is shifting the Michigan race back to Senator McCain. But we won't really know the outcome until a month or so from now. If a voter in a swing area knows McCain is bad on the economy but has too much fear to vote for Obama, they are either going to vote for McCain and hold their nose or just not vote in that race.
Ras subscribers, will Ras release to you at 5?
VinceP1974 said...
So is the whiney Obama going to lace every sentence with "John McCain"
That is going to get annoyingn really quick
I agree, Vince. John McCain can get annoying very quickly.
Sad irony of politics, InkStain.
The saving grace for all pro Obama people is that McCain's core is an independent streak and he holds grudges, which means the hard right is in for a freezeout if McCain wins. McCain's 2010 campaign in midterms will be centrist GOP is teh way to go. Right wing will hate it.
PA: TIE
MI: McCain +1
OH: McCain +6
Fl: McCain +6 (that baby is locked down, sorry libs)
CO: McCain +2 (Palin Effect :) )
Is that a projection Mr President?
Geoff said...
Amy - I agree, CO and NM.
Iowa, its all about ethanol. McCain has fought ethanol subsidies. That's it.
--------------
That's not all of it. Obama campaigned hard in Iowa and they made him what he is today as the nominee. He is from Illinois and there is a regional effect. Ethanol isn't the only issue it is farm subsidies in general. McCain didn't campaign in Iowa in 2000 or 2008. He counted on NH to make his campaign.
In short, it is more than just ethanol.
That will probably be pretty close to election night.
Oh, and VA McCain +5.
Still nothing on RAs.
Hubbygate:
"That's the question the lawyer of Andree McLeod, a self-described Republican watchdog, put to the governor last week in an appeal to disclose e-mails between her administration and her husband, Todd.
Those e-mails could shed light on how Gov. Palin, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, runs the state. And they could also help reveal what role Todd Palin, who the state Legislature's special investigator called a "central figure" in the governor's firing of former Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan, played in his wife's administration.
...
In redacting or denying the request for e-mails, the governor's office mostly cited Gov. Palin's right to a "deliberative process privilege," a law designed to let public officials receive candid advice from their staff and consultants regarding matters of the state without fear of that advice going public.
But McLeod's lawyer, Donald Mitchell, said Gov. Palin waived that privilege when Todd Palin was included in her staff's e-mails. Documents released to one member of the public have to be available to all members of the public, he said. "
Rasmussen is screwing his subscribers for his buddies at Fox. Nice!
MVRed,
Don't you know you're supposed to spin the other way? Projections that are clearly way off just make you look terrible. It's all about expectations to drive the narrative (unless you want a "Obama's rebounding!" narrative).
Okay Real, there are other Obama positives there. My point is McCain loses 5 points because of ethanol, and that's why its not competitive.
Considering the new weighting from Rasmussen here are my predictions:
Colorado - McSame +2
Florida - McSame +6
Ohio - McSame + 4
Pennsylvania - Obama +5
Virginia - McSame +1
We need another MN poll since it is now a TOSS UP!
It's going to come down to who finishes October better and who has the better ground game.
Finishing October better = McSame with a likely Bin Ladin October surprise
Ground Game = Obama
Election - who the fuck knows?
InkStain said...
"McCain is right on ethanol subsidies. It'd be ironic, to me, if that cost him the election."
It should cost him the election, Inkstain! McSame is the devil. In today's politics you can't take a stance on things you think are right! He also put his neck on the line with the surge and he somehow was proven right. What a fool. Screw John McCain. He would rather lose an election than lose a war. Obama is never that stupid. Obama's positions are nuanced. He deserves to win.
Obama is up by 12 in IA according to their best local pollster, selzer. You say 5 is do to EtOH. I guess the rest is just because BO is so damn good.
Whining about income inequality?
This election really boils down to one issue:
1) For the continued destruction of the middle class
2) Against the continued destruction of the middle class
I'm sure that changing regulations on wall street is a theme that will strike a real chord with out of work rust belters
Rasmussen is releasing (at least online) at 6, not 5.
"We need another MN poll since it is now a TOSS UP!"
A toss up? Last time I checked, a state where all the polls have a single candidate winning and ONE tie, isn't even close to a toss up. RCP and 538 agree with me.
Couchpotato--
CNN now says TOSS UP.
Rasmussen is releasing on Fox at 6 is my understanding, thus subscribers get it no sooner than the public.
"He always overestimates for the Dems, always...
... If you want an accurate picture, ad 2-3 points to McCain."
IIRC, Rasmussen Reports has been around for two election cycles. So you can bold, capitalize, italicize the word "always", and it still won't mean much.
Rasmussen also badly mangled the 2000 election. The best pollster coming off that cycle? Zogby. Almost all other polls predicted a Bush popular vote win. Of course, Zogby's accuracy may have been accidental. He blew his cred in 2004, which was also Rasmussen's claim to fame.
So those two elections I talked about are really more like one. I trust Rasmussen, but it is not the gold standard.
Couchpotatoe-
That means McCain is down one, he was ahead one on CNN yesterday.
My projection:
PA - +3 O(or i will hang my head in shame at all my stupid stupid neighbors...)
CO - +2 O
FL - +4 M
OH - +4 M
VA - +3 M
From Rasmussen:
"Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 71% say McCain is prepared for the Presidency while just 35% say the same about Obama."
"Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters say John McCain is prepared right now to be president, and 50% say the same thing about Democratic vice presidential candidate Joseph Biden. Forty-four percent (44%) say the man at the top of Biden's ticket, Barack Obama, is ready, but 45% say he isn’t."
If this is even close to true, Obama cannot win...
If there were a regional effect, wouldn't Senator Obama perform better in Missouri? Or is this like the Cubs/Cardinals rivalry? I think I already know the answer to this, but want to hear what you partisan screed monkeys have to say. :-D Just kidding. Just a little partisan screed monkey joke...
Also on the regional effect... Indiana?
Indiana is now SOLID MCCAIN.
No kidding. I have an ex in IN and I think he is the only Obama supporter there. Of course I dated the only smart man in Indiana, apparently. :o)
Good call Airhawk.
My version of the 538 Prediction Market:
CO:M+1
FL:M+6
OH:M+5
PA:O+2
VA:M+4
These same polls next week will be a good indicator of the Wall St. fallout/reaction on Main St.
Lastly, its interesting that CA again appears as a tipping point state. Though CA and NY are probably only in M's camp as part of a GOP landslide.
These polls should be the first to measure the effects of the Backlash to the Lipstick Backlash Backlash (BLBB). That is, cosmetics saleswomen and disaffected swine farmers are expected to demonstrate a backlash against the media backlash against the McCain backlash against Obama's Lipstick remarks.
McCain should ride the BLBB to double-digit leads across the board. If not, then that's an indication that his campaign is in serious trouble.
Obama is looking less Presidential with every passing day.
His whining about the tone of the campaign is also noteworthy because he is following the same pattern Dukakis did.
People who keep regurgitating this Dukakis comparison prove their ignorance to political history. Three things led to Dukakis' loss: the Willie Horton ad, the Kitty Dukakis moment, and the tank ad. Nothing has occurred in Obama's campaign that comes close to these three things. Plus, Dukakis didn't fight back. Obama is taking the fight to McCain and has done a damn good job of under-cutting McCain's integrity.
Feel free to keep on showing your ignorance, though. I wouldn't want to actually stop you from looking stupid.
Amy said...
Also on the regional effect... Indiana?
-----------
Amy/Real Mike,
Are you talking to me? There is likely a regional effect in MO and IN too for Obama. However, they don't lean Dem as much as IA so he still trails. Obama lived in IA leading up to the caucus. Ethanol is part of why he is doing well, but it is one of many factors.
"Lastly, its interesting that CA again appears as a tipping point state"
Lol, yeah, and so is alaska.
CO - O+2
FL - M+4
OH - M+5
PA - O+3
VA - O+1
I'll give it a whirl.
CO Obama +2
FL McCain +7
OH McCain +5
PA Obama +3
VA Obama +1
Obama landslide. AZ and AK for Palin-McCain. Give me a break.
No, Realistxxx... In all sincerity, I'm just talking to everybody. Unlike most here, I'm trying to gather all of the information I can about this election. But that's an interesting point you make. There are a LOT of corn farmers out there.
I don't know. I feel a little backlashed all of a sudden... ;-)
My guess for today's Rasmussen:
CO: Obama +1
FL: McCain +4
OH: McCain +4
PA: Obama +2
VA: McCain +2
Here's my picks for the Ras/Fox poll:
Obama/Biden lead PA,CO
McCain/Palin lead FL,OH,VA
oct said...
"Obama landslide. AZ and AK for Palin-McCain. Give me a break."
I think this is very possible when you factor Obama's ground game. I could maybe see Obama losing Utah and Oklahoma as well but not much else.
Tito -
Obama, just like Dukakis.
1. Same tired rhetoric
2. Same inability to connect with voters
3. Same ability to whine about how you are treated.
What you do not know is what the 527's are going to bring.
I can promise you this, there is a devastating crime ad that will wound Obama badly.
He voted against a popular bill that would have reduced Gang violence.
His district has had a ~300% increase in gun deaths due to gang violence since that time.
There is plenty more where that came from...
Dukakis did not have:
1. Wright / Ayers / Rezko
2. Inexperience
3. A massive list of flip-flops
The debates have not arrived yet, so you do not know what will come to pass.
Obama is on record saying he is against any future combat systems.
That will not sell well in an ad...
My prediction.
All polls aren't not the results. ;)
Geoff:
Thanks for pointing out that article from the NY Post. Obama hn has given it legs, as you note:
"The Obama campaign is challenging Amir Taheri's column in today's New York Post, which says that during his visit to Iraq, Obama asked Iraqi leaders to postpone a final agreement on U.S. troops until the next administration takes office."
Some are calling this inteference with the foreign policy of a sitting President "treasonous".
Recall that this took place during the height of Obama's hubris when he was dashing around the Mid-East and Europe aping like hye was already President.
If the story winds up having legs, it will be damning.
This election really boils down to one issue:
1) For the continued destruction of the middle class
2) Against the continued destruction of the middle class
it really depends on who you are. that "one issue" is likely to be abortion for a small but significant percentage of the population. for me, the "one issue" is support of use of torture. strip off everything else in terms of policy differences, but you can't get away from McCain flipflopping on that earlier this year. incredible.
Matthews comparing McCain to Hoover for his "fundamentally sound" comment today... LOL!
Pete,
That's great spin! A+. Obama ignores the charge, he "is trying to dodge the issue, obviously has something hide." He directly calls it a blatant lie, he's "giving it legs".
Ah, a campaign for which truth isn't even remotely an issue. You must be truly proud of yourself and your nominee.
midpoint: dukakis never had a keith olbermann to give him cute phrases to use
InkStain said...
McCain is right on ethanol subsidies. It'd be ironic, to me, if that cost him the election.
No, he's wrong.
Production of corn in the U.S. has become so efficient that not only were corn prices next to nothing here (meaning not much profit for the farmer), but corn was being dumped on the international market for next to nothing: even in poor countries in Africa it was cheaper to buy American corn than to grow your own.
This had a lot of negative effects, such as if a major storm took out a lot of the American corn crop it would mean millions of people starving, and a lack of agriculture in other countries was destroying their economy. Oh, and small farmers going out of business.
America has tried various methods to keep corn prices up, such as paying people to keep land fallow and buying corn to basically burn it to keep it off the market. But nothing has been close to the ethanol subsidies in success. Not only has it raised the price of corn, but it actually produces something kinda useful.
Yes, Mexicans complain because the price of corn is high now, but next year Mexicans will actually start growing corn again instead of just relying on American product. This helps Mexican farmers and consumers without hurting American farmers.
Food has an extremely inelastic demand curve. If you have 11 bakers each making a loaf of bread and 10 people who want a loaf, the bakers will drive the price down to next to nothing, because one of them will be out of business otherwise. If supply exceeds demand, the price drops precipitously. If demand exceeds supply, the price will rise until somebody does without. Even a small subsidy can make a huge difference in prices.
"Some are calling this inteference with the foreign policy of a sitting President "treasonous"."
That's because it is treasonous. It would take balls, but I'd love to see the Bush administration announce that they will investigate this. How blue will the map look when Obama is under suspicion for sedition? At the very least he's idiot to put himself in this position.
John McCain is whining louder than anyone at the moment.
"But our economy is goooooooooodddd!!"
"But he called her a piiiiiiggggg!!"
"Mommy, Obama was disrespectful!"
John McCain looks weak. I thought Dukakis was bad, but John McCain makes Michael Dukakis look like John Wayne.
Now watch the conservatives cry because I insulted their little Johnny....waaaahhhhh...cry conservatives, cry.
President Barack Obama!
Get used to it.
Looked at the Diageo/ Hotline poll. Obama has been narrowly ahead in 4 of the last 5 polls.
Better still, he is recovering his lead as more trusted on the economy, healthcare and energy. McCain still leads on security.
Better again, enthusiasm among Republicans for the Republican ticket is in decline, probably a response to Palin's lightweight interviews and McCain being caught in clear lies. Tremayne at Open Left sees the same effect in her popularity rating.
Enthusiasm among Democrats for their candidate has improved, a sign that morale in the Obama camp is again buoyant.
"If there were a regional effect, wouldn't Senator Obama perform better in Missouri?"
IL is primarily driven by Cook Co. Kerry won IL in '04 by over 500K. Cook Co. was +800K Kerry. Outside of the Chicago area is primarily red.
I´m waiting Scott...........
PeteKent,
I seem to remember you referencing Michelle Obama as a "KNUCKLE DRAGGER" and now you..innocently?? mention Barack Obama was "APING" around the mid east and europe.
I have a suggestion for you GO TO HELL!! I am sure it is only a few steps from where you are now standing, just look UP!
PeteKent said...
Geoff:
Thanks for pointing out that article from the NY Post. Obama hn has given it legs, as you note:
"The Obama campaign is challenging Amir Taheri's column in today's New York Post, which says that during his visit to Iraq, Obama asked Iraqi leaders to postpone a final agreement on U.S. troops until the next administration takes office."
Some are calling this inteference with the foreign policy of a sitting President "treasonous".
Recall that this took place during the height of Obama's hubris when he was dashing around the Mid-East and Europe aping like hye was already President.
If the story winds up having legs, it will be damning.
i know right Dario. Ras is a douchebag for embargoing until his freaking appearance on Fox.
Check out the Palin numbers in the Research2000 internals. A week ago she was at 52 favorable / 39 unfavorable. Today she is at 47 favorable and 43 unfavorable. The bloom is off the rose. Expect her to slide to net negatives within the next week.
Pete:
The story you mention has a zero potential for 'having legs'. It doesn't pass the Big Scandal Smell Test.
1) You can't boil it down to a single soundbyte.
2) You can't have it make sense to the average person.
3) You can't build outrage with it. It insults nobody.
Here's the problem. Try convincing a low-info voter of what happened and what it's important!
YOU: Did you hear about Iraq-gate?!
THEM: No, what is it!
YOU: Barack Obama went to Iraq and advised them on how to handle the withdrawal!
THEM: He's for the withdrawal, isn't he?
YOU: Yes, but he told them to hold on!
THEM: What do you mean?
YOU: He told them not to withdraw troops until he takes office!
THEM: Takes office? He's going to win?
YOU: Well, no, but he said to hold the withdrawals until then anyway!
THEM: Hold withdrawals? Wait, we're withdrawing troops? Who's withdrawing troops?
YOU: President Bush.
THEM: He is?! I keep reading about how dangerous it is and how we have a lot of troops there!
YOU: Well, it's somewhat complicated, but Bush agreed to lessen the surge numbers by abou-
THEM: What were we talking about in the first place here? I'm getting confused.
YOU: Iraq-Gate!
THEM: Oh yeah. What was wrong with Obama advising the Iraqis?
YOU: It's treason!
THEM: It is? Why?
YOU: Cause only the President can negotiate these sorts of things!
THEM: But the Bush has been really awful at it. Maybe it's better someone else is.
YOU: But it's ILLEEEEEEGAL!
THEM: Did you see that SNL skit? That was hilarious!
YOU: Goddammit no, focus on the story! It's all over Fox! It has legs, legs dammit!
My reasonably optimistic predictions?
Colorado - O+4
Florida - O+1
Ohio - M+4
Pennsylvania - O+4
Virginia - O+1
I think the Republican convention bounce is wearing off, and Obama will pick up a few points across the board, and most of the numbers will return to pre-convention levels with the exception of Florida where I think Palin is a net negative, and Colorado where the DNC was held.
I agree Homespun. Bad form PeteKent. Keep it clean.
KC- just the back and forth - expect palin uptick once hannity covers. Plus, kos plus 8-9 on dem id taints ratings :) its probably plus 5.
I can see Russia from my house!
Bloomberg agrees with McCain re: Economy...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Bloomberg_agrees_with_McCain_Economy_fundamentallystrong.html
Suge - that's teh best case scenario for Dems. If that prediction holds, noone can dispute that the momentum is again with Obama.
Patience young ones. The polls are like teas leaves. Read into them what you will. Use them for suggesting momentum is your way
(Example Gallup +10 mcCain crap.)
Now we crush them on election day.
NC, GA, and FL are blue meat sitting on our table boys.
Go Obama!
@Fred,
Is there not a way to figure out bias, one way or the other. Do a graph of all national pollsters, for months --- then take the average and figure out how much above/below the average any pollster is...
The Gallup daily tracker is at 2 points for McCain, and Rasmussen is at 3 points.
If Rasmussen is biased , doesn't Gallup have to be biased also?
Can those of you who have nothing to say about the polls please post somewhere else? Sean has a post on Reno that would be perfect for the Obama-is-doomed BS that so many of you like.
OH is interesting right now. Clearly, McCain has picked up some support, as several polls show him +4 recently, although the Quinnipiac poll is a noticeable and significant outlier. The new McCain support is likely fairly weak, however. The internals of the new SUSA poll, for example, show that far more McCain supporters might change their mind (55%) than Obama supporters (31%). How well Obama makes a persuasive case to these folks will likely decide the state.
funny pander
The Bill Clinton Grand Strategy still holds merit as a solid path to an Obama Whitehouse. Simple-minded, yes. But if the Obama campaign can make the following stick in the public's mind (every minute, every hour, every day), they have a great shot:
Economy = Bad
Bush = Economy
McCain = Bush
However, if the Dems fail to win this election in this favorable climate, and continue to allow themselves to get distracted by McCain's current tactics (which have been working quite well), then they might as well blow up the party. Or hire Karl Rove for 2012.
"If Rasmussen is biased , doesn't Gallup have to be biased also?"
Bias is a strong word, but yes. There's a graph Nate posted in some other thread. Rasmussen and Gallup are both about R+2, while Diagoe is pretty much dead even.
Some say PeteKent is the most disgusting conservative in the universe! Is there truth to it? Would they be saying that if there weren't something there? That's the question...
Some say John McCain has completely diminished himself, taking his reputation from gallant war hero to whiny pathetic child. Is it true? It's all in the perception, but that is definitely a view that's out there...
I've been burned by polling too many times to believe it. I still think Obama will more than likely win the electoral college.
My Ras predictions:
CO: Obama +3
OH: McCain +5
FL: McCain +4
PA: Obama +3
VA: McCain +1
What I'm hoping for, but what I don't think will happen:
CO: Obama +5
OH: Obama +1
FL: McCain +1
PA: Obama +5
VA: Tie
Homespun:
I cannot help it if Mrs. obama appears a touch ungainly to me. As far as my locutions go, you read way to much itnot them, but thanks for reading.
superstar, it´s very very difficult.
My predictions:
OH McCain by 2-3
PA Obama by 3-4
FL McCain by 2
CO Obama by 2
VA Tied
My predictions for Ras polls (based on trends, not my gut):
CO: O + 1
FL: M + 4
OH: M + 6
PA: M + 1
VA: M + 2
emonokari,
The Dow lost 500pts day, inflation is 6%, unemployment is now above 6%, foreclosure records every month, houses have lost 20% of their value, and getting a loan is going to be difficult for miost without outstanding credit, which few have. Making the case the economy is bad is easy.
Geoff:
For a smart guy, you are a tool!
"Aping" = acting like. Please consult an dictionary.
And please, don;t try to curry favor around here by siding against me. VA Con tried that and he got no where and now is gone.
We have ways of dealing with apostasy, you see . . . . ! ;)
PeteKent,
No one uses that term by MISTAKE. You are what you are:
a LIAR and a RASCIST!
I am done with you...Go away sad little person..
Ras and Gallup are very much trying to swing the momentum. Just a tad to shift the tide. They can only do so much if the electorate wants Change.
They will now start to Cage voters in OH and VA and CO...Rove and Co. will be out to suppress the vote. That is their final mission.
That is the only game changer now. The false momentum in the polls is meant to stimulate the electorate but it cant this go around.
STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE, STATUS – 9/15/08
I’m adding consideration of polling to this analysis along with Nate’s projections to give the analysis more strength. Adding polling, significantly strengthens the assessment of Obama’s situation.
Here’s a snapshot of the key groupings of states. It is followed by an analysis of the paths to 269/270.
“+” means McCain up, “-” means McCain down. The state groupings are listed in order of importance (the number attached to each state is its EVs):
1 - The Midwest Main Match (Projection, Polling)
OH-20 (+2.6, +1.4) vs. MI-17 (-1.7, -2.8) and PA-21 (–2.3, -4.0) - Tipping; OH 33%, MI 16%, PA 16%
STRUCTRAL ADVANTAGE: McCain has a strong advantage in the projection, but Obama is advantaged in the polling. Status: Even
2 – The Western Game NV-5 (+2.3, +2.5) vs. NM-5 (-0.7, -2.8), as well as a tossup CO-9 (+0.3, -1.1) - Tipping; CO 28% NV 20%, NM 14%
STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE: McCain has an advantage in the projection, but Obama is advantaged in the polling. Status: Even
3 - States in the Middle of the Game
VA-13 (+2.2, +0.7) vs. OR-7 (-4.6, -6.6), MN-10 (-3.4, -5.2), WA-11 (-5.2, -7.3), WI-10 (-4.6, -6.5), IA-7 (-5.6, -9.7), NH-4 (-2.6, -2.3) – Tipping VA 34%, NH 4%, OR <1%, MN 5%, WA <1%, WI 2%, IA <1%
STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE: Complex … McCain has only one state, VA, at risk, whereas Obama has six. In polling, the advantage is reversed with VA being weaker than all of Obama’s six at risk. The weakest of Obama’s is 4 EV NH but its projection is outside of its polling, suggesting that its polling should not tighten. A strong 9/15 in VA-13 has hurt McCain and increased this game from “slightly favoring” Obama to “favoring” Obama. VA’s tipping % has skyrocketed Status: Obama
4 - At the Edge of the Game
MO-11 (+7.3, +4.9), NC-15 (+9.0, +7.5), IN-11 (+7.2, +4.2), WV-5 (+8.7, +5.4), MT-3 (+8.6, +8.1) vs. MA-12 (-8.8, -14.0), IL-21(-9.5, -14.4), ME-4 (-9.5, -14.1) – Tipping MO 5%, IN 6%, WV 4%, MT <1%, MA <1%,
STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE: Both the projections and polling favor Obama. MO and IN have polling within striking distance of Obama, and if the projected game should weaken for McCain, both MO and IN could leave the pipeline and join the states in the “States in the Middle of the Game” grouping. 9/15/08 developments show a slight fade to McCain’s projection strength in this group, new DE polling removed DE from the group and the game. Any additional fade by McCain will likely cause ME to leave the game as well. Status: Obama
5 - Big States Each Side Covets, in Play but Difficult to Flip
FL-27 (+6.3, +4.0) vs. NJ-15 (-5.8, -8.5) and CA (-6.9, -13.5) – Tipping FL 7%, NJ 4%, CA 3%.
STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE: In the projections, McCain has a slight advantage as FL’s 27 is just outside of NJ’s 15 with CA’s 55 at risk just outside of FL. But in polling the advantage flips to Obama, with CA polling at out of play levels and NJ well beyond FL. 9/15/08 changes show a slight but continued improvement in this game for McCain. McCain needs to get some polling confirmation, hoping for and needing no worse than a -6 NJ and a -7 CA. Florida’s tipping percentage has fallen dramatically as VA’s has risen. As a result, this groups value fell behind the “At the Edge of the Game” group on 9/15/08. Status: Obama
Analysis: Easiest Paths to Victory
Obama Path A, The West – Kerry-251 + IA-7 + NM-5 + CO-9 with NV-5 available to replace either NM or CO. In polling this path remains in place for Obama. Projections suggest it will weaken with CO flipping to McCain and NV fading from Obama’s reach. McCain needs CO polling to confirm the projects and for an additional marginal strengthening to flip NM in projections.
Obama Path B, Virginia – Kerry-251 + IA-7 + VA-13 with NM-5 as insurance against a flipping by McCain of NH-4. A bad VA pool for McCain in VA is 9/15/08’s biggest story. VA’s polling had been moving McCain. This Path is has reversed from previous days’ trends and is now strengthening for Obama. The jump in VA sends this Path ahead of OH to become Path B.
Obama Path C, Ohio – Kerry-251 + OH-20 with IA-7 and NM-5 as insurance against a flipping by McCain of NH-4. OH’s polling has been moving McCain. This Path is weakening for Obama as McCain has gained in both projections and polling in OH.
Obama Path D, Florida – Kerry-251 + FL-27. FL’s polling has been moving McCain and the projection suggests this will continue. This Path is weakening for Obama as McCain has gained in both projections and polling in FL. FL’s polling has been moving McCain and the projection suggests this will continue. This Path is weakening for Obama as McCain has gained in both projections and polling in FL.
Obama Path E, Other Weak Reds – Kerry-251 + IA-7 + MT-3, ND-3, SD-3, WV-5, IN-11 and MO-11 supported by any partial achievement of Path A in CO-9, NM-5 and NV-5. Assuming IA-7, Obama needs some combination of 11 additional EVs. This path is fading from play as both projections and polling for McCain are pushing all the Path E states away from Obama. But this Path has many combinations which give it depth and strength and create risks for McCain.
McCain Path A, Defend the West – Block Obama’s Path A of Kerry-251 + IA-7 + NM-5 + CO-9 with a win in either NM or CO and a hold of NV. This is a defensive game with a thin margin to overcome any troubles elsewhere. CO is projected to go McCain and defend the flip. But CO polling has not confirmed this situation. NM is close but lags behind CO. McCain has a play off table in NH-4 which could flip and offset a loss of NM or NV but it doesn’t have enough EV to hedge a CO loss.
McCain Path B, Michigan/Pennsylvania – Bush-287 – IA-7 = 280EV and 10 EVs to give. With 19 EVs (NM, CO, NV) at risk in the West, a defense of OH-20 and a flip of either of the two achievable big EVs of MI-17 and PA-21 probably wins. Neither projections nor polling confirm a flip, but McCain has strengthened in both, yet polling lags projections.
McCain Path C, Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa – Bush-287 gives McCain a 17 EV cushion. IA-7 remains uniquely weak (ethanol) and would likely only follow MN-10 and WI-10. Very recent polling suggests MN may be a tossup but the total polling as well as the projections show its still Obama’s to lose. This path was the GOP’s primary offensive game going back to early planning in 2006-7 and an expectations of a face-off with Hillary. The GOP placed its convention in MN for this reason (just as the D’s placed their convention in the center of the primary offense game, Obama’s Path A, in CO). The impacts of the two conventions uniquely upon the host states are not fully understood. It is noteworthy that both appear to be polling better for the conventioning party than projections would indicate. As far as an offensive game plan, this is the equivalent of trying to run the ball with a passing offense against a stout run defensive team. But if OH/FL/VA/MO is defended, than picking off any one of MN, WI, or IA would be enough to block any Obama wins in his Western Game (CO and NM). With a VA loss, MN and WI becomes extremely important for McCain.
McCain Path D, West Coast OR/WA/CA – This path is merely embryonic and requires additional confirmation to be born into the game.
Bottom Line – McCain’s recent gains in both projections and polling have deteriorated Obama’s clear structural advantage, but McCain’s gains have been allocated in a way that increases his chance for an EV blowout while only slightly increasing his win probabilities. The post-convention surge by McCain may have peaked 9/14-9/15.
Cheers
Glenn
Homespun1 -
Ignore Pete, he's an outright racist so "aping" and "knuckle dragging" aren't accidents. All his misspelled words in that post, you can just picture him being all giddy and spazzing thinking he was being so cute and subtle with his "aping" remark.
For more of PeteKent's racism, look no further than when he called Colin Powell the ultimate House Negro.
Pete Kent will be the next Dick Morris.
Whatever happened to VA Con? He was one of the few GOPers here I could tolerate (Geoff is the other...sometimes).
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