By popular request -- and owing to the exceptionally complicated dynamics at this point in the election cycle -- we have dropped the "convention bounce adjustment" that our model had been implementing over the course of the past week. However, keep in mind that the model is still designed to hedge against short-term fluctuations in the polls in the number of ways. Thus, while we show the race trending very slightly toward Obama over the course of the last week, the movement cannot really be described as dramatic.
As for polling released within the past 24 hours, Barack Obama maintains a 6-point lead in the Gallup tracker (although both candidates gained a point against undecided), and a 3-point lead in the Rasmussen tracker. CNN shows it a bit tighter still, with Obama holding a 2-point lead with third party candidates included (this is the version that we use officially) an a 1-point lead without. There is also a CBS News poll showing Obama 8 points ahead, although it came in too late to work its way into our simulation run today.
Really, I think we're best off ignoring the polls until about the middle of next week. I could see any of a number of things happening over the course of the Republican Convention. Perhaps Obama will maintain his (small) bounce if the Sarah Palin selection has already brought home the base votes that the Republicans were hoping to win during the convention. Perhaps McCain will deliver a dramatic acceptance speech against the backdrop of Hurricane Gustav and move several points ahead. Perhaps the election will revert to a tie.
My hunch, however, is that once everything settles down, we are going to see that Obama has gained a couple of points from the convention cycle and will have something like a 2-4 point national lead. The reason is simply that the Democrats seemed to "find their voice" during their convention, bringing home a bread-and-butter message about the failures of the status quo, whereas the Republicans will be forced to retool theirs in the wake of Gustav and the Palin selection.
9.01.2008
Today's Polls, 9/1
@ 5:15 PM
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418 comments
At last, a polling post. I had to break out the waders to get through the comments in the last few Palin threads.
Good call on removing the bounce adjustment. It was just one more uncertainty added to a writhing, festering pile of uncertainties.
Don't get me wrong, I think your adjustment was based on solid information, but there are simply too many new variables in this cycle for it to be safe to make this as-yet-untested adjustment.
It all settles out at the end, anyway, as the bounces fade. :)
Before the Republican convention, let's all remember George Bush's slogan from 2000: A REFORMER WITH RESULTS.
Let's not fall for that again.
Good Decision.
New poll CBS News 48/40.
The results for Obama are remarkably consistent with 48% or 49% for all.
It does seam to me that Obama's percentage has always been more stable than McCain's.
I think this shows that people have clearer feelings about Obama, and right now 48/49% are sold. Can't be bad.
To me, the important thing is Obama's number. He is approaching 50% on a few polls. And, even after the Palin announcement, his number didn't go down. Sure, McCain's went up a tad, but Obama didn't lose anything. If he holds his number in the high 40s, this game is over.
you're right, it is over..he can't get 50%.
To repeat- It's fine that you have decided to drop the mean adjustment, which had no good historical basis. However, until the current noise settles down, you need to increase the uncertainty in the projection. That will pull the win percent down, which I think we all agree would be realistic./mbw
I think Palin may have become downright poisonous. She's hired a lawyer for trooper-gate.
Palin is a joke.
I'm also sure than this woman has more scandals with her.
The Obama camp is in Alaskafor vetting her.
Wait and this picks will be a disaster.
I tried to figure out what the single-day polling looked like for Obama using some basic math on the gallup poll, but I was wondering if someone with stats knowledge knew what to expect tomorrow? My prediction I got was that as long as he hits 45% single-day result for tonight, he'll break 50% in the gallup tomorrow. Am I right, or did I oversimplify this?
Doesn't need 50% when you factor in the 2-3% that will go to the 3rd parties.
But, aside from that, none of this polling really factors in the Obama ground game. That will be worth another 1-2% in my opinion. All in, if he is polling at 49, he will end up with 52%+. 55%+ if this Palin thing keeps playing out like it has been this past weekend.
I agree with Michael. Even though the fluctuation of the numbers is and will be too difficult to accurately adjust for, we still need to keep in mind that they are fluctuating.
NATE
you made the correct call to drop the adjustment now before the GOPer mini-party started. It would be difficult to try to drop it during or after thise week IMO.
I agree on the polls speaking for themselves during these strange times...
As I had posted on the busy previous thread:
CBS poll show Obama +5 for their first post-convention polling [up +3 for the week].
That is in line with the other trackers + projections & reality, despite the CNN poll +1.
But it is the internals of the CBS poll that are the most interesting, not the topline. Some highlights:
OPINIONS OF THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
(Among registered voters)
Biden - Palin
Favorable 37% - 22%
Unfavorable 16 - 11
Undecided/Unknown 47 - 66
"But few voters say that having Palin on the Republican ticket will change their vote much. Just 13% say they are more likely to vote for McCain as a result of having Palin on the ticket, while about as many say they are less likely to do so. 72% say it won’t make a difference in their vote."
SELECTION OF PALIN AFFECT VOTE?
(Among registered voters)
More likely McCain 13%
Less likely McCain 11
No difference 72
"Interestingly, Palin’s selection may have the greatest effect on men. 17% say they are more likely to vote for McCain as a result. Just 10% of women say the same, and in fact 77% of women say Palin won’t affect their vote. 18% of Republicans are more likely to vote for McCain." [MILF effect ?]
SELECTION OF PALIN AFFECT VOTE?
(Among registered voters)
All Men Women
More likely McCain 13% 17% 10%
Less likely McCain 11 12 10
"The choice of Senator Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket also affects few voters. But in those cases where it does matter, Biden’s presence has a greater net positive impact than Palin’s; 15% are more likely to vote for Obama as a result, and just 4% are less likely to do so. One in five independents say the choice of Biden will make them more likely to vote for Obama."
SELECTION OF BIDEN AFFECT VOTE?
(Among registered voters)
More likely Obama 15%
Less likely Obama 4
No difference 78
[so a net negative for McCain w/Palin]
On Obama's favorables:
CONVENTION AFFECT OPINION OF OBAMA
(Among Convention Watchers)
Better 39%
Worse 7
No effect 52
summary:
"That said, Obama appears to have received a three point increase in support. This is similar to the increase George W. Bush received in 2004 after his convention. John Kerry received no bounce that year."
slouch,
There were a few people in another thread (beowulf and darren if I remember correctly) trying to derive the daily gallup numbers from the tracking polls, but it ended up being too inaccurate to produce any meaningful data. It depended too much on how the numbers were rounded to begin with and which numbers you started with.
Welcome back to the blue side of the map Virginia and Ohio, even if it is slight.
Obama's likely to win about 51%-47%, unless one of the debates goes really poorly for him. Not impossible, the Rick Warren thing was a McCain win, but Obama doesn't have to walk into anymore Lions' Dens. Though I'm not sure Joe Biden can avoid it. Obviously 51-47 would be an electoral college blowout. Another thing McCain I think has on his side is a close elction in popular vote would likely go his way with Purple states falling red. Obama probably has to win at least one of Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, or Florida. At this moment I think Obama would be likel to win all of them, but a week ago, he might not have won any. For now, I'd say 70-30, Obama wins.
Good work. With the bizarre dynamics this season, it was just confusing the matter. People realise that they shouldn't take anything as being too meaningful until at least a week after the RNC, whoever is bouncing. I'd rather *see* the bounces (or lack of them) than have them subtracted out.
As a side note: can someone explain why the right-wing talking point types keep saying it's over as Obama 'never breaks 50%'? It just serves to underline that McCain never breaks Obama's figure. Genuine question - I just don't see how that is something to boast about. Perhaps if Obama wins with 49.5% they'll be like Jake LaMotta in Raging Bull - "you never knocked me out"! Fair enough - enjoy your close loss, I guess.
@slouch
I think he's got 51% the last 2 days. So 48% would be enough. 47% with rounding.
I am virtually certain he's goinng to hit that (he's hit it 5 of the last 6 days, and that one day was probably noise)
gotcha. thanks eponymous
Yeah Obama can't top 50% yet.
When was the last time that McCain was consistently obver 45% in the polls? 49% beats 45% in November.
I think that what we have in general is both oarties running good campaigns in a year that is going to trend democratic. If nothing really changes, if the Palin pick continues to look ok, if the GOP can't make the scandal stuff on Obama (Rezko, Ayers etc) really stick, if Biden doesn't mess up, if McCain doesn't really mess up, I would expect a 54-46 election as the biggest gap possible at the moment. I think the best McCain can do is to repeat a very narrow Bush style win. If the Democratic message gets through, then Obama could win by 8 points. (Though I think its possible that the McCain campaign could implode and it turn into a 20 point election.)
Is there any way to tease ouit the Palin bopunce, or deficit, from the rest of this noise? Any ideas on what crosstabs we should be looking at? I am sure there will be Palin only questions, but most folks vote for the top of the ticket...
Slouch:
My spreadsheet is guessing that Obama polled 51-45 last night.
If that is correct, and he polls 51-45 again tonight, then the 3-day tomorrow should show 51-44.
But of course, the MOE could mess that all up.
Pagop
Except for
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-01-poll-monday_N.htm
Up 50-43
McCain will continue to go negative on Obama, he has to get him below McCain's 45% ceiling. Palin may have ruined his best argument (experience) though.
CNN in Alaska following the report that Palin has hired a lawyer for Troopergate.
Look, I'm not going to say this seals it for Obama. What I WILL say is that if the parties were reversed here I'd be throwing things and ranting at the top of my lungs about how we were giving the election away.
None of the developments today, from the hurricane to the delayed RNC to the Palin daughter issue to the lawyer story are in any way positive for McCain.
Yay.
Why doesn't her dump her now if he is going to? This is the best possible day to do it.
TITO
Beside VA & OH breaking 50% as you noted:
CO is getting bluer @ 62% in the projections, NM & IA are both in the 80+% solid blue, and NV is almost back on track nearing 50%...
plus NH & PA & MI are really blue now too @ over 67% each
those all look great at the moment !
wonder how much longer FL will be lagging down in the 33% range though...
of course, the #'s will matter more in another week. Then again events can still change everything
Palin is lawyering up. Good move McCain. I wonder if Palin's lawyers will have to sign off on her VP acceptance speech.
It seems Obama has been able to set the record straight with his convention.
Radical? Not anymore.
Michelle angry black woman? Not any more
Celebrity? Not any more
Elitist? Not any more
Too Weak? Not anymore
With the selection of Palin McCain has lost the experience argument too. Alls left is a battle over policy and who's the real change agent. Thats fighting on Obama's turf.
It appears all the pre-convention fretting (Including myself) was unwarranted and the Illinois Senator really knows what he's doing. If Obama is seen as Presidential, he wins, period. The 90000 at Invesco and the 40 million on TV saw President Obama. That impression will be tough to rid from peoples minds.
Does Sarah Palin believe in contraception?
Will she cut contraception programs and funding?
ENOUGH of this medievalist flat earth caucus!
"Is there any way to tease out the Palin bounce, or deficit, from the rest of this noise"
too much noise I think. McCain has ticked up a couple of points since.
Will be an interesting week. 4 days of conventions - Dems nailed 4/4. Reps 0/1 so far (Gustav, although I think Bush would have been worse for the Reps personally)
VA CON
I think it looks like they are preparing the GOPers & public for Palin to resign with her 'dignity' in the next 2 days for the good of her family, party, nation & state.
Why else release that bizarre teenage pregnancy story today ?
They gotta know that will start the beginning of the end... just like John Edwards story went.
The PR people must be working on how to unravel the selection behind the scene, no ?
but first they must want to really vet the last-second replacement for VP.
Cindy claims she hand a hand in choosing Palin as VP, so you never know what that old maverick might do next since he has a reputation for bucking his own party & country...
BTW - did you know he was a POW ? [sorry, could not resist...]
Bet he uses that excuse for this debacle...
Remeber that Obama had dropped tozero from every prior bounce though, this feels different but I won't trust it until mid-month at the earliest.
If the groung game really is good, this could be game over.
"Why doesn't her dump her now if he is going to? This is the best possible day to do it."
just about the only day really - doing it after she's officially accepted would look way worse than dumping her now.
VC, are you still convinced she's going to be a huge positive or are you a little worried now?
VACon,
I think you may be right. But he has to choose someone else, and who would that be? I read (in the NY Times I think) that aides were saying his first choice was Lieberman(!) until the potential right wing backlash became apparent. You think he would go back to Pawlenty?
I don't think shes being dropped. But she will be a drag on the ticket. But Bush Sr. got elected with Quayle, so. Yeah.
dcm in fl-
Well, Lieberman is who he wanted to pick, if he is going to lose why any I can see him saying, "Why the hell not"
If McCain dumps Palin the election is lost. McCain will look incompetent while Obama will totally own the judgment argument and thus the election. McCain must ride Palin to the finish line, cross his fingers and hope for the best. She can give a stellar acceptance speech and change opinions.
Eric @4:35
the Rick Warren thing was a McCain win, but Obama doesn't have to walk into anymore Lions' Dens.
other than, you know, that joint appearance at ground zero next week on 9/11
Hmm, Laura Bush is giving her speech at the RNC talking about Gustav and pimping Bobby Jindal. Video of Rick Perry giving a shout out to Jindal. There's the GOP VP pick if McCain dumps Palin. The storyline would be between her own 4 month old infant and her oldest daughter being pregnant, she'll need to drop out to focus on her family.
Another thing that distinguishes this wild and wacky election from most others... we can't go with the conventional wisdom that the VP pick has little or no effect on final numbers.
McCain's choice of Palin is tied to fundamental questions about his judgement, which are at the very center of the choice voters have to make this year.
So this time the VP choice (at least on the GOP side) is one of the most important considerations in the whole electoral equation, and will certainly impact polling from now on.
I was just looking at cbn.com and some religious sites (don't go after a big meal) and they are still defending Palin to the hilt. They may make McCan't keep her.
Good news! Too bad we cannot judge her drag on the ticket...
Damn, I want state polls.... though I guess that it would be better to wait for McCain´s acceptance speech, and I guess that´s what the state pollsters are waiting for, too.
BRAD
but McCain would be in a pickle if he doesn't choose another women. Then it looks like pandering for votes even more - but that cuts both ways I guess.
A no win. I would toss it to the GOP convention to let the delegates decide maybe ?
IF they pick to stay with Palin, so be it. If they choose Romney or Pawlenty or Lieberman [not] or Hutchinson or someone else like Huckabee - then that might be a best option at this point... IMO
BUT they are actually starting the convention with Laura Bush on stage right now.
Smart or a mistake ? She & the GOP should do not look compassionate. And with all the GOP gulf coast governors taking time out to record political video messages during the storm strikes me as too partisan today.
Chain Gang Charlie Crist is on @ the GOPer convention now by video, and we have 2 big storms headed right at FL atlantic coast for later this week [Hanna & then Ike].
What a putz ! Bad move, or is it just me ?
DCM in FL said...
TITO
Beside VA & OH breaking 50% as you noted:
CO is getting bluer @ 62% in the projections, NM & IA are both in the 80+% solid blue, and NV is almost back on track nearing 50%...
plus NH & PA & MI are really blue now too @ over 67% each
those all look great at the moment !
wonder how much longer FL will be lagging down in the 33% range though...
I want Obam to win and I ove this site. But, the percentages only changed because of national polling. Until we see state polling, we won't really know where this election is. For example, if the country has moved generallly to Obama, but Palin plays really well in say Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. All of the percentages will change. Obama's top campaign manager said these national polls are not what it's all about. Don't forget Gore wn the popular vote. What really matters is the state polling, which probably won't see for a whille, maybe next week. I think Nate would tell you, the percentages to the far left, have less statistical credence than they have had because he's trying to find a balance in how to evaluate the bounce. Since, he removed the balancing mechanism he had in place, Obama's numbers shot up. They're not entirely accurate though. We'll probably know more middle of next week. Things are looking better though. I'd guess Palin won't play well in most of Florida.
Btw, why should Jindal join that ticket? He has got 30 years to run for president...
Also the Quayle argument is a good one, traditionally we don't care all that much about the VP. After all, the job itself is pretty useless historically speaking. But the big difference this time around is McCain's age, which will likely increase scrutiny on the VP with good reason. She might be able to get away with some things as a VP, but as a potential president...? The bar is higher.
You guys, she isn't being dumped. I don't see it happening. It would have happened by now.
There seems to be quite a bit of talk about what the individual daily tracking numbers are. This is my best guess at explaining that.
http://www.bostonpie.com/DailyTracker.htm
If Obama pulls a 48 or higher in individual polling tomorrow he will break the fifty mark in Gallup. He had a bad polling day yesterday in Rasmussen at 45, but that will fall off in two days possibly resulting in Rasmussen breaking fifty as well.
HOLY SHITE!!! LOOK AT ALL THAT BLUE!!!
McFail/Failin' 'XX
Guys, we must wait until next week and the GOP bounce settles in to see where we are too. McCain and Palin could lite it up this week and take over. Lets wait and see.
sorry, I know we should not comment on attire for the women
but Cindy McCain is wearing a gold glam barbie dress - and that color & bleached blonde hair, well that is just so very wrong for a lady of a certain age & position.
what is Cindy thinking today again ? and she claims she helped pick Palin - no wonder !
Laura Bush at least looks appropriate...
DCM--
Charlie giving a speech, even taped, is a bad idea. Noone is watching though, it won't matter.
Nate - has there ever been a convention during a vacation week and the first week of school for the kids? I cannot imagine a worse time to schedule it, even without a hurricane.
To state the obvious: McCain is in a catch-22... keep her and her public vetting dominates several cycles and maybe something awful comes out... dump her and cede the judgment argument to Obama, just days after ceding the experience argument.
Tough times to be a Republican.
USA Today / Gallup Poll, Obama up 50-43 (he's putting up fives again!), up from the prior 48-45 advantage a week ago. Interesting these guys didn't include a separate likely voter number this time, i wonder what that was.
On Palin, McCain can't drop her, the GOP base has come to her daughter's defense and dropping her would indicate McCain showed poor "judgement," which is a key buzzword during this campaign. Dropping her would ensure a worse defeat than they already are facing. He has to live with his gamble.
I'm afraid you're right, VCon. Looks like Palin stays.
Remember what Rummy told us: sometimes you just have to go to war with the VP candidate you have, not the one you wish you had...
VC's right. They can't realistically dump Palin at this point (unless tomorrow has as many scandals as today). The neocon/fundamentalist base absolutely loves her and they wouldn't stand for it. McCain just doesn't have the standing in the party to make a move like that. If he did, he'd have picked Lieberman instead.
And besides, who else could they realistically get? Jindal has a very bright future; it'd be a shame to put him on a likely losing ticket.
Ah, and triple post... a candidate that polls at 48-49% at the moment can be fairly confident to get more than 50% in the fall, if that candidate holds on to his votes. There will be some polarization towards the 2 main candidates, and some late deciders will reduce the number of undecideds. And the people that stated "I will not vote" will not count.. So 48%-49% right now is about 51%-52% already.
BTW, if no one knows who Bob Riley is, he's Alabama's governor (my state). If McCain wanted to remind people of Reagan, visibly, Riley would be the way to go.
http://media.govtech.net/Digital_Publications_Art/Alabama_Governor_Bob_Riley.jpg
Tito
Jindal is todays Hero. That was one smooth evacuation.
But what if McCain dumps Palin for Jindal & he turns out to also be embarisingly undervetted?
Once bitten twice shy. McCain will go for a more conventional choice.
Mittens would accept, I think.
But again it isn't happening. Like I said Bush Sr. won with Quayle so don't count your chickens before they're hatched.
Filistro-
HILARIOUS!!!!
Well it looks like we can finally put the last nail in the coffin regarding the myth of the "August disaster for democrats" that the regular GOP trolls were practically getting off on for the last four weeks.
Seriously, it was foolish of you guys to think that this election was going to follow the pattern of any previous one. Things are changing at a faster rate than ever before.
If McCain is going to "drop" palin, they have to decide pretty damn fast. It's going to look a thousand times worse for them if they wait until after the official nomination process is over. Besides, who would take up the mantle? It has been said that Romney and such were furious that Palin was picked. It would be very damaging to be on a ticket that at that point was probably going to crash and burn.
If palin is "dropped", it will be "her choice" to "help her family based on new revelations". There will be a stigma, but again, not nearly as bad as if they wait.
This palin pick just keeps getting more and more entertaining, with the vice grip tightening on McCain every day! If this has come to light in just THREE DAYS, imagine what will in the next TWO MONTHS? If more skeletons are unsurfaced, and mccain then loses in a landslide, the lesson that will be learned from '08 is that you ALWAYS VETT YOUR VP SELECTIONS, NO MATTER WHAT.
The closer we get to the election, the more likely that "leaning blue" states turn blue, and "leaning red" states turn red. If Obama can hold these numbers for the next 4-6 weeks, barring any unforeseen major events (huge debate gaffe?), then it seems that the election is securely his.
Possibly the best August closer that Obama could have realistically hoped for, considering how badly the month started out for him. Amazing how things can change!
50-43 O over M in USA Today Poll.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-01-poll-monday_N.htm
So much for not breaking 50%.
More importantly, O has a 61-32 favorable advantage and M a 54-38 one. Highest M unfavorables ever polled by USA Today.
IF McCain makes a statement publicly in support of Palin - well that will be her kiss of death.
If he does not, then he is leaving the option open for Palin to do the right thing & withdraw her selection before Wednesday night.
Palin will probably do the right thing late tonight or maybe tomorrow for the good of her 'family' IMO.
the table has been set for that by the release of that story about her child today. why else release it today ? It has consultant & focus group written all over it, which is basically what Nate postualted on the previous thread since they had no good reason to wade into this blog fray today UNLESS...
I've got to agree with VA conservative on this one.
I don't think she'll hurt the ticket, but the help that she'd provide seems to be dimming substantially.
Most of the Clinton supporters I've talked to were pretty shocked by the 17 year old daughter thing and this Trooper thing could cloud over all of September.
What that means is that the media isn't focusing on Obama which is good for him since he does worse when there's too much media on him.
Right now the media spotlight is glaring on the McCain campaign and most of it is negative.
I also agree with Krauthammer that we lost the strongest argument again Obama with this selection. Everyone's questioning McCain's judgment on this pick and Palin's for going through with this. They may weather it but I don't think she'll help much outside the base, and may be a wash or a slightly drag due to the weigh down among independents.
Nate, you must have taken horse tranquilizers to show this much restraint.
Virginia Conservative: Why doesn't her dump her now if he is going to? This is the best possible day to do it.
Hold everything - what? Look Virg - I've given you some grief, but I appreciate your presence here because it's nice to have some input from a Republican with a triple-digit IQ.
So what are you saying?? I really don't get this. We knew about Troopergate before she was even nominated. Why are you, of all people, suddenly considering the idea of dropping her?
Are was that snark?
And if it wasn't snark, whom do you suggest as a replacement?
Some somewhat good news: Gustav is now apparently only a category 1 storm, with winds at a maximum of 80-90 mph. For reference, Katrina was a category 5 storm with winds at a maximum of 175 mph. Hopefully it will only decrease in intensity from here.
Blame -
True, and I don't think McCain's gonna dump Palin, but if he does that's the scenario I see going down. Jindal might be unknown, but his name was in the running for VP for a good while, and a considered much more serious contender than Palin was. So I think he's probably been vetted better by the campaign and the media. He is today's hero, and that would be a huge bounce for the GOP coming out of their convention if somehow Jindal ended up on the ticket.
EPONY
yes, GUSTAV is so yesterday now... but HANA is on it's way to hit either JAX or points north like Savannah & Charleston by the end of the week.
Then IKE is coming in right behind..
still, for the next few days attention will turn back to focus more on Palingate & the GOPer mini-party in St. Paul.
Better for the GOPers if attention was diverted elsewhere IMHO.
Eponymous -
Katrina made landfall as a Cat 3 with winds of 125 mph.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katrina_Hurricane#Louisiana
On current track, Hanna will hit the Eastern Seaboard and Ike will be heading into GOM over the next ten days. There will be lots of storm coverage in the next couple of weeks, so it'll be interesting to see how that affects election news cycles.
tito,
Yeah, you're right, I was comparing apples and oranges there. I seemed to remember that Katrina was a cat. 5 storm but...I forgot about the difference between a storm's max strength and its strength at landfall.
Oh wikipedia, are there any problems you can't solve?
VC-
Lets just say Palin does step down (if she had a brain cell she would have never accepted). Who would accept?
Romeny, Palewenty, and Jindal all have presidential aspirations on being second choice on a losing ticket would not be a plus.
That leaves Lieberman, who he cannot pick, or another unknown who he has no time to vet.
I guess he could pick another woman like Hutchinson, but that kills his base again.
It would really suck to be a repub today, fells good to tuen the tables, at least for a day.
On the other hand, I guess she's no longer the poster child for the abstinence only program ...
Don't you just love how the more preachy Republicans are about sex and religion, the more absolutely certain it is that they're b-deep some kinky mess that no slutty San Francisco atheist would ever dream of being involved in?
Any bets on the hubby? Doesn't seem like the usual closet gay Christian. I'd say he's more likely to have high-priced hookers or a 16-year old girlfriend stashed away in Nome. Of course, the way things are going he might surprise us with something really Fargo-esque.
Brad-
I don't know. But at this point that mental exercise is academic because I don't see it ever coming to that.
I was concerned this would be Eagleton, but it is looking like Quayle again. Only a full fledged indictment would make her step down.
That leaves Lieberman, who he cannot pick, or another unknown who he has no time to vet. I guess he could pick another woman like Hutchinson, but that kills his base again.
Why would Hutchinson hurt him with the base. I hate her guts - they should love her, no? And we know McCain's real choice is Holy Joe, so I don't think he can be ruled out.
But it's all a moot point. I don't think there's any way on earth he'll drop Sarah Lee.
Looks like Gustav wasn't as powerful as Katrina, and fortunately for all involved should be much less of an issue on all fronts, including the political one.
The Obama campaign seems to want to get above the fray. The campaign doesn't want to "go after" Palin, her family or her scandals. This is a responsible attitude to take.
I think that Obama is a decent guy and very focused on the issues. That he hasn't used the Palin selection as an excuse to make political cheap-shots is good for the national dialogue.
Winning a political campaign without engaging in character assassination ought to be possible, right?
Of course she lawyered up -- she needs to give a legal deposition. If you don't have a lawyer for that, however innocent you may be, you're an idiot.
I think there's something there, but her getting a lawyer means nothing but some bad press.
bill p. -
Little coverage should freeze the numbers, good for Obama.
As for the daddy with a MILF in nome, perfect. And Sarah and hubby were living apart, I guess...
How long until the divorce between these two?
In regards to adjusting for the uncertainty in the numbers, the model does already adjust for uncertainty based on the amount of time left before the election: since these polls are still two months out, the model uses a variance calculated form historical data on how much polls typically change from two months out. Or are you suggesting that an additional variance should be added due to the unusually late conventions? That sounds reasonable to me, but there's no data on how much additional variance to add---since conventions haven't been held this late before, and this close together, it's hard to determine what the effect will be in any statistically principled way.
Eponymous -
Upon farther reading, Katrina had just fallen below Cat 4 before landfall so it was as strong as a Cat 3 could be and the hurricane force wind field was as wide as a Cat 4, plus the storm surge was more in line with a Cat 4 than a Cat 3. Katrina had been a Cat 5 a few days before it hit, and this also added to the impact of the storm surge.
So, not exactly a Cat 5 but not as weak as it sounds to say it was strictly a Cat 3 either.
obsessed-
Pretty sure Hutchinson is pro-choice, and that would piss off exactly the people he just got excited.
McCain's got one shot. He needs to blowout Obama in the debates. If he does that he wins, if not it's over. That will be the only thing between now ad November 4th that the majority of the country will pay attention to. This is a Democratic year. The election was about Obama and Obama won the first round against Hillary and the 2nd round with his speech. 3 round fight, debates are it. McCain needs a knockout. It's possible, Obama hasn't always won the debates. Some of the first debates in the primaries he wasn't great. Rick Warren's forum he wasn't great. If he keeps it close, he has too much momentum to lose. He's unlikely to make a huge blunder, so McCain will have to knock him out. It's definitely possible, but I think unlikely.
There CAN'T be an indictment in TrooperGate. There is just no way on earth that he would have chosen her if there was any chance of that. I mean ... that story has been on TPM Muckraker for months.
Listen - if TrooperGate has legs, it proves unequivocally that McCain's judgement is completely and irretrievably shot to hell and no matter what your politics are you should be absolutely petrified of having this guy in the White House. Seriously.
MSNBC is are reporting that Plaquemines Parish in NO is flooding from levee over-topping. Not sure how serious this is gonna end up being.
The failures of Katrina did not really occur in New Orleans until after hours after landfall, so I don't think it's safe to say NO is out of the woods yet. But hopefully this flooding in Plaquemines isn't too bad.
I think it's now 90%+ that Trig was Bristol's first child. Assuming this is the case, the father is very middle-aged, likely over 50. (There is increasing evidence that the rate of chromosomal abnormalities doubles after the father is 45+ and triples at 50+.)
Brad - Oh my God - you're right - Hutchinson is pro-choice. That's a shocker.
If I could commission a poll, I would dearly love to see all 50 states polled on the abortion issue.
OOPS!
Palin never got a passport before she was gov (in the last 20 months), and had never been out of the country before she visited a few troops. On CNN right now.
Eric,
What about McCain's acceptance speech? The circumstances are difficult, but don't you think there's an outside chance that will change the race as well?
Subterranean: It's pretty clear that everybody in Wasilla knows everybody else's business. I think the chances are:
0% - Trig was Bristol's first child
50% - the Trig rumor was a RatherGate setup, planned from the get-go
50% - the true scandal, revealed today, resulted in some smoke that was misinterpreted
Palin never got a passport before she was gov (in the last 20 months), and had never been out of the country before she visited a few troops.
Does indeed evidence provincialism, but the same thing didn't hurt W.
I have a feeling Palin will be undone not by one thing but by the thousand-cuts method.
RatherGate. I love it. You people lie, smear, slam and trash Democrats 24-7 on your nutball radio shows and FOX, yet you're still smarting over the Rather story. You conservatives are pathetic. Get over it already.
obsessed-
I don't think they are that good, and they would not have picked her if they knew all this. This speaks to trusting James "Psycho Christian" Dobson to do your vetting.
Again, as a Frenchified Liberal tool, I have no issues with Palin. At least as Governor of Alaska or some other mammoth track of tundra.
Its A) the judgment of McPOW, whose attack theme was inexperience etc, undermining his own campaign. Even arch-ass Rove gives up the money quote that will be used against Palin in his attack on Kaine two days before she was announced. Accused him of being totally unqualified for VP as a freshman governor of a middling state and a mayor of the 105th largest city. If he is unqualified according to the GOP Buddah then Palin is what? That is a lack of judgment that cannot be forgiven.
B) If you've read more than ten minutes of politcal history, you know that there is no such thing as a secret. If McPOW knew of the daughters pregnancy, her five month absence from school, Palins entanglement with this Copperhead league, and her misuse of power, and thought no one would unearth it, again he is disqualified. If he didn't know, that means he didn't vet her and again he fails in capital letters.
John McCain is unfit for the job of president.
What about McCain's acceptance speech? The circumstances are difficult, but don't you think there's an outside chance that will change the race as well?
I've never heard McCain give a good speech. I will grudgingly admit that he can be super-good on Jon Stewart, but his poor oratory skills, combined with his obviously rapidly-advancing senility and/or Alztheimer's, make him a truly dismal public speaker. I think he has serious problems with the telemprompter.
If I were McCain's handler I'd have him improvise his acceptance speech completely off the cuff. It could be a disaster, but a teleprompter speech is almost guaranteed to go badly.
lets all remember that the polls only track people with land phone lines. they still dont know how to track the younger voters with cell and other devices. and the young voters [if they vote] will go dem in large margins....
i think all the polls are screwed up. and some are setup just to keep ratings on the news shows up.
He should have a town hall meeting instead of a convention speech. That would be the best option, that is where he does the best.
A McCain adviser just said all these facts were known and she was vetted. If this is true, they are idiots and have horrendous judgement, if it is untrue they are liars.
In either case you cannot vote for McCan't - both show horrendous judgment.
This *was* the story of the "Tortoise and the Hare", with McCain as the tortoise with the slow and steady strategy that would ultimately have beaten Obama.
He had a proven strategy for grinding down Obama's numbers. A Pawlenty pick, while unexciting, would have blunted the "7 houses" attacks just as well as Palin has.
Now McCain is the Hare, and Obama the Tortoise.. except Obama has the advantage of being slightly ahead.
Stepping on a convention bounce that history shows would evaporate anyway? I don't see the point.
Garf-
All the likely voter polls also ignore all the newly registered voters. If the ground game is good, add 2-5 to Obama's numbers in states where he organizes (based on Bush over performing).
Bill P: When I use the term RatherGate I refer to the deviously calculated setup by Rove to embarrass Rather and at the same time defuse the fact that George Bush used his powerful connections to cover up the fact that he had shirked his military commitment as a result of a combination of cowardice and privileged irresponsibility.
Those facts are irrefutable, but Rove used a variation of the "strawman" technique. He arranged for Bush to be accused with bad evidence. It's like beating a murder rap on a technicality. Bush is guilty, but tainted evidence was produced and the case was thrown out.
(The [I hope] clued one...)
I'm sure a post is being prepared about this at this very moment, but for the first time Obama, hits 50% in USA TODAY poll.
FWIW, last week K Bailey Hutch said she's running for TX governor
If McCain has to dump his VP in a hurry, his best last-second bet would either be Romney or Giuliani. I think Giuliani said months ago he didn't want it, but he's considered an outsider and he's a diehard McCain supporter. If McCain told him he needs him, I'm sure he'd do it. Plus, he was the front runner for two years, even while his campaign was crashing and burning during the primaries. Romney is also a good bet. Supposedly strong on the economy, outsider, and only (perceived) drawback is religion (how it's perceived); but hey, we have an african american candidate and had a woman come close to nomination and, so far, have a popular (among the base) female vp candidate. Romney also won the MSNBC Veepstakes.
Bryan that's what no one understands.
Either the internals are really worrying McCain's inner group or they went out on a limb and wanted to try to snag a half of the spotlight and coverage to try to rally past Obama.
I still don't see the point in doing that when McCain's best weeks were when all the focus was on Obama. Now he has to spend the next 4 weeks introducing Sarah Palin and that means Obama can just work on the swing states.
Combined with this disastrous rollout, who knows.
Pawlenty or Romney would have been good enough choices to win, since they could just hit Obama and leave the spotlight on Obama since everyone knows them...
This pick is looking more and more like a ridiculous Hail Mary when he was nearly even with Obama anyways.
I think I've come to a conclusion here. I've been watching this campaign extemely closely for more than a year and a half. I think it's over, unless something crazy happens. Obama sealed it last Thursday. To use the metaphor everyone's using McCain threw a hailmary with Palin. Incomplete pass. Obama can probably kneel on the ball and win at this point.
Guys,
It's high time for us to start looking scientifically at disbundling single day results from the trackers.
There are two keys.
First, avoid treating the problem as one of statistical approximation through guesswork. Instead, treat this as a precise problem with inequalities, so that each day's published result provides a precise upper and lower boundary on the result of an equation with three variables.
Second, take the Gallup published weekly crosstabs and calculate from them, once again as inequalities, the weekly raw numbers (use the gender results for this purpose and assume 52% Female).
At this point you have inequalities with more linear equations than variables and you can derive a good upper and lower boundary for each day. Could someone with good algebra skills please take this up? I'm SURE this is an elementary task.
I was listening to Kay Bailey Hutch on CNN when P{alin was announced, she was shocked and knew nothing of the candidate.
She would likely turn down a VP pick now.
"lets all remember that the polls only track people with land phone lines. they still dont know how to track the younger voters with cell and other devices. "
Oh please. I won't get fooled by that BS twice. I'm still waiting for that army of cell phone only voters to make John Kerry president.
Tito
Oh, to be fly on the wall.
Ether of us could be right.
McCain now has the polls to show that Palin won't help with indipendents or (gasp) women.
Somebody is going to tell him that He & Obama has the same problem. He has (quite sucessfuly) painted Obama as a dangerously inexperienced socialist. In return Obama is gearing up to paint him as a facist doddering old fool.
In short, both are going into November with large segments of the population figuring they are incompitent.
Obama reacted by picking the most experienced & respected moderate he could find to hide behind. McCain would do well to do the same.
That is logic. That is why McCain was picked in the first place - for his crossover apeal. But will McCain be logical?
If anything, Obama's convention bump dwindling "naturally" would have reflected more poorly on Obama than having it squelched immediately by a stunt.
Bristol Palin and Levi ????
Just wait for the plauseable denialbility spin to come.
Have any of you stopped to consider the following possibilities.
1. The young couple was planning to get married?
2. Have a child shortly after.?
3. Therefore at worst a semi=planned pregnancy.
4. At worst on the Gov. and Mr. Palin front. The young couple planned to get pregnant to avail any marriage concerns the parents had.?
Yes the above is spin/smoke and mirrors, but is entirly within the realm of possibility.
Would stop dead in its tracks unwed/unplanned teen preg. issues.
Expect a one time only interview with the young couple.
While you could doubt the above speculation/interviw... no one could not definitly confirm nor deny it.
The Dem fear of VP Palin goes on, and is confirmed at the VP debate when Palin destroys Biden.
Obsessed -
Thanks for the clarification. In that case, consider my post to be a general condemnation of conservatism rather than a reaction to what you said. Sorry!
Romney might have really helped McCain, but he couldn't see working with the guy. I appreciate that, but certainly he would've shored up the Economic side of the equation and given him a real shot at flipping Michigan. McCain has never, ever had over 45% of this country behind him. That says a lot. The only way the GOP was going to wn this time was to pull an extremely charismatic person out of the hat. They didn't have one. The only thing they have going for them at this point is 7 out of 10 elections have gone to the GOP in the last 40 years, including the last 2, and some people unfortuantely are prejudice. Might matter in a close election. This is feeling like it might not be close.
Nope - the repubs are running from it and saying it is off limits. They will hide fro this FOREVER! No interviews.
USA Today/Gallup: OBAMA 50% - McCain 43%
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-01-poll-monday_N.htm
This Registered Voter USA Today/Gallup poll includes Sat and Sun, so the Sarah Palin factor is present. It doesn't seem to matter much.
The Democratic National Convention significantly boosted Americans' views of Barack Obama as a strong leader who "shares your values" and can manage the economy and Iraq, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Saturday and Sunday finds.
Republican John McCain's advantage in handling terrorism was dramatically reduced and his "unfavorable" rating ticked up to its highest level this year.
"This is a convention bounce," says Robert Eisinger, a political scientist at Lewis & Clark College and author of The Evolution of Presidential Polling. The results reflect the impact of themes the Democrats hammered at their convention in Denver last week.
In the head-to-head race between the candidates, Obama now leads 50%-43% among registered voters. In the USA TODAY poll taken Aug. 21-23, the Illinois senator held a four-point lead.
On personal characteristics, Obama has eliminated McCain's advantage over him as "a strong and decisive leader." By 46%-44%, those surveyed say that characteristic applies more to Obama than McCain. Before the convention, McCain held an eight-point advantage. Obama has a 13-point advantage as someone who "shares your values," double the edge he held before the convention. He has an eight-point advantage as someone who is "honest and trustworthy; before the convention, they were ranked equally on that quality.
Anyone who doesn't acknowledge the Dem convention as successful (y'know, people like David Brooks) is lying. But you knew that.
CBS Poll:
Before the Democratic convention, McCain enjoyed a 12-point advantage with independent voters, but now Obama leads among this group 43 percent to 37 percent. Obama's lead among women has also grown to 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent), and the Democrat maintained the lead he had before the convention among voters who supported Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.
In the poll, Democrats continue to benefit from a "enthusiasm gap." By 57%-28%, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year. By 47%-39%, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are less enthusiastic than usual.
The mainstream media will say, you don't make stipulations, we ask what we want to ask or you can go somewhere else. She needs the exposure. She doesn't call the shots, they do. She needs them more than they need her. If Fox News gets an "exclusive" that's not enough. She needs to address all of the questions the people have. I want to know for example why she got on a plane with a high risk pregnancy to go to Texas from Alaska and then get back on the plane after her water broke. Her daughter is not an issue and I agree with Obama, it's not something we need to judge her on. But, the issue of getting on a plane after you're water breaks to make a 12+ hour trek back to Alaska seems completely in play. It calls her judgment into play in a big way. If she addresses it well, maybe she wins a lot of voters over, but it should be addressed.
humanist,
the real issue is there are *many* solutions, not just one. You can come up with several sets of numbers for the daily #s where the 3 day average works when rounded. And that's just going with whole numbers for the daily numbers. A computer program would be fairly trivial to write to come up with all solutions, but really without daily numbers, it's not solvable. You can do a statistical probability of what are the most likely solutions, but then you're back to not having 'real' #s
I quickly came up with 2 solutions that fit the averages for the gallup, in one Obama was at or over 50% 2 of the last 5 days, in the other, he was at or above 50% 3 of the last 5 days, in one a min of 43 max of 51 in the last 2 weeks, the other min of 42 max of 52 in the last 2 weeks. Both my solutions are different than the #s at the url someone posted upthread.
Porridge-
This has been posted several times today. All good for Obama. The question is, does this hold?
Brad.
Two flip flops in politics that always happpen and IMO always forgivable.
This goes for both Dems and GOP.
1. I am not a candiate for _____ office.
2. No interviews.
McCain cannot afford to dump her - if he does what does that say about his judgment for having picked her. But what does it say about hhers that she didn't tell him all this?
If ke keeps her his campaign runs the strong danger of suffering the "death of a thousand cuts."
The only possibility is for her to drop out - she'll still get grilled on why she didn't tell McCain, but it would minimize the damage. The only real shot at a replacement would be Jindal - he keeps the appeal to the base and has far better credentials than she did. Of course, that exorcism thing does sound a bit weird.
MCain would still get some props for having picked a woman. If he taps another woman it will highlight the tokenism behind the choice of Palin.
But no matter what happens, McCain is harmed by this brouhaha. The only question is how much?
I feel a bit sorry for Palin. She didn't realize how far over her head the water she started swimming in was. Ordinarily I'd relish a right winger getting egg all over her face, but this stuff goes to the family and nobody should rejoice over that.
Todd, you miss I think the points I'm making.
Treated as inequalities, together with the Gallup weekly numbers, we have more inequalities than unknowns and therefore AS INEQUALITIES this is soluble.
As an Obama supporter and watching Bobby Jindal on tv, I am thrilled McCain picked Palin. He's pretty sharp.
Jindal will be the one running in 2012 should Obama win.
Why feel bad for her? She is over her head as Alaska gov too, and they are stuck with her. She is a brainless true believer, relish in her failure. The fewer true believers in office (of any party) the better off we are.
I don't think he can drop her, I thought he could earlier today, but her spokeswoman really thinks she brings the base, and McCain would need to call Jame "Psycho Christian" Dobson in order to drop Sarah "Just plain psycho trash" Palin. He won't, he can't.
Virginia Conservative said...
I don't think shes being dropped. But she will be a drag on the ticket. But Bush Sr. got elected with Quayle, so. Yeah.
This is a good point, except for one tremendously important difference between '88 and '08, and we all know what that is...
...Bush was Reagan's VP. The 8 years Bush Sr and the GOP were coming out of are very, very different than the 8 years Bush Jr and the GOP are coming out of.
As much of a "maverick" McCain is, was, or claims to be, the party is still the party.
Oh, and need I mention that Obama isn't Dukakis?
I want to know why she got on a plane in her third trimester with a high-risk pregnancy to fly what's equivalent of me flying to China. And then after her water broke flies back. That's a big concern for me. To me, unless she explains herself that's insane judgment. It scares me, given the fact that she could have all of our lives in her hands. Maybe there's a reasonable explanation, but she has to answer for that. I know it's her personal life, but it's a judgment question. Possibly negligent. Again, maybe there's a goo explanation, I hope so. If there is, she'll win a lot of people over, by refuting it as being an issue, but to me without a long track record of success to counter it, that's a personal decision that I find troubling and directly important to whether she'd make a good leader of our country.
I think y'all are right that McCain can't drop Palin from the ticket. It would be an admission of poor judgment that he cannot possibly afford. He has to stick with her and hope for the best.
It might not be that bad: she seems very likable and after weeks of being called the least qualified VP nominee ever, would surely benefit from reduced expectations in the debate. If she can avoid further scandal and can hold her own against Joe Biden when everyone is expecting an incompetent fool, she might even be an asset to McCain. (Two big ifs, I know.)
Can I make a gentle request that the ugly speculation about Palin's family and marriage be kept out of the polling thread? Not only is it unseemly, it's inappropriate to this thread. (Plus, if you're an Obama supporter as I am, then your candidate has asked you to cut that s*** out.) Thank you!
DarcyPennell,
Do you think the whole flying to Texas from Alaska in her third trimester and back after her water broke is a non-issue?
brad -
I don't think it will hold, but that depends on what McCain does next.
He needs to start running ads again.
But, what ads to run?
If he attacks on foreign policy experience, it brings up Palin's lack of experience as an issue.
If he attacks on Resko, which was old news in February, it brings up Palin's scandals as an issue.
Can someone answer how McCain is supposed to attack now, and what on?
Perhaps I should clarify:
While it is strictly impossible to have more than probable results for what the precise single day results were like, we can combine the information we have from Gallup and say with certainty, for each day, that McCain and Obama numbers were within given boundaries. This will be very interesting to find out; and we could also take the median as a likely number.
Did somebody say here that if he replaces her after she's officially nominated then she can't be replaced on the ballot and it has to be approved by the Senate?
Bryen 193--
Google "1936 Literary Review Poll" It's another case of polling with a non-representative sample, just as missing out on cell-phone-only voters could be this time.
Eagleton wasn't replaced until after the convention IIRC, so no that isn't true.
I agree, forget all the bad press, McCAin just took away his two best methods of attack on Obama.
What does he attack on? I don't know, race? How about age? WEll, maybe he can attack the fact Obama and Biden are both lawyers...
He ain't got much left...
Game over.
No mistakes from here in Barack! Make sure he stays on script. And Biden too!
"He ain't got much left..."
You're forgetting something important: Republicans aim mainly for the stupid vote, so they don't have to worry about being blatantly contradictory. Watch him just continue hammering Obama over experience.
We already see this in the lie-fests trying to claim Palin has "vastly more experience". LOL
Who would ever want to be second choice to Palin?
True, but even republicans are not that dumb, are they?
McCain dropping Palin would be almost conceding the race... Eagleton comparisons, judgement, losing the Christian right, not being able to pick another woman etc.
Keeping her seems like a much higher risk today, but he still has a shot if there are not many more scandals (and yes, having a pregnant 17 year old daughter is still a scandal).
Add this to trooper-gate, her Ted Stevens support up to 2006, some others and many unknowns, he may have death by 1000 cuts as others have said, but at least he lives to fight another day.
She stays and not gets properly vetted by the press and the blogosphere... goody!
If Obama had make a pick this bad I'd be depressed, angry and having serious doubts about his judgement.
I am sure that thinking Republicans and many undecided voters share this view of McCain today.
I hope a Florida poll is in the queue...it will be interesting see the effect both VP candidates have there.
brad,
Remember, a significant number of people still think Bush is doing a bang-up job.
Speaking of McCain not having much left..
I think, all things considered, it might also be ill-advised right now to go too heavily on the "drill, drill, drill" theme... ;-)
The only thing that could win this election for McCain now is 1)Palin resigning from the ticket, or 2)a HUGE Obama gaffe.
Or Palin over-performing in the VP debate, or giving an acceptance speech for the ages.
Chris Bowers makes some very intriguing points about the shrinking pool of undecideds - it's similar to the logic that made it possible to predict Hillary's defeat early in the spring.
This is why Obama's bounce is larger than it appears at first glance. He actually has gained significant raw support, as he has equaled, surpassed, or come within 1% of his all-time high in every recent poll. At the same time, McCain has gained raw support, thus making Obama's overall net gains minimal. However, a 1.2% net gain is actually pretty significant when it is coupled with such a large drop in undecideds. A 2.7% lead with 6.9% undecided or voting third-party is actually much, much larger than a 1.5% lead with 13.9% undecided. In the latter, McCain must defeat Obama by only 10% among the undecideds in order to force a tie, while in the latter he needs a whopping 40% victory among the undecideds to vote a tie.
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7868
Breaking: Palin hires a defense attorney for abuse of power, and Palin spokesperson makes claims of knowing of the pregnancy unlikely.
I'm fairly certain you would get a lot of noise from Florida polls from now until Ike blows through and power is restored. I'd be content not to see a Florida poll until September 25, at the earliest.
It is, however, high time for some Ohio polls.
VC-
Dream on, but I would be dreaming if I were in your position, I was in 2004...
Realistixxx-
She supported Stevens until she was chosen. She just ook down a Stevens ad on HER WEBSITE!!!!
What if Obama is Bristol's boyfriend? Who would gain in the polls?
Unless Obama is involved in a huge scandal or there are more racists out there than I thought, you guys are on your way to winning now.
vc: we can only pray that there are loads of racists.
I am a father of two daughters, 16 and 14 years old. They are good kids, and both of them are high school cheerleaders. They are not yet dating which is fine with me for the moment. I am honest enough with myself, to know that either of them might become pregnant some day outside of marriage. I pray it won’t happen, but it could happen to me. I don’t blame Palin for her daughter’s getting pregnant.
I do blame her however for being such a clueless parent. If CNN’s reporting is correct the father is a 26 year old pharmacy student. If I 26 year old came near my daughter I would shoot him. To make things worse according to CNN they have been together since Bristol was 13. My God what kind of parents would let their 13 year old date a man 23? Let’s say the dates are wrong I take no more comfort if it’s a 14 year old with a man 24 years old. It’s the judgment stupid!
This shows me that Governor Palin has no judgment. Letting a man ten years older than you teenage daughter date her is just nuts. Don’t tell me that it’s the kids fault, if you cannot prevent your 13 year old dating a man ten years her senior you cannot do anything.
Speaking of judgment and parental instinct, super moms don’t have their water break and then immediately get on a plane and fly for 8 hours to the hospital. Once again that is nuts. Here you are, you know you are having a difficult pregnancy, that you are going to be giving birth to a special needs child and you get on a plane depriving your child and yourself of adequate medical care, you are without a fool. We do not need fools in the white house we have already tried that and how did that work out?
Many in the GOP felt like it would be healthy to hit rock bottom this time. Get a fresh start. I haven't heard a lot of that since it looked like McCain was headed toward the nomination in late January, but I think they may have been right. Romney and Jindal, maybe a couple others have popped up as having potential. They get blown out this time and then figure out how to reformulate their message for the future. Their ticket is really pathetic this time. McCain got into Congress riding on his wife's money and his heroism for staying in the "Hanoi Hilton" for 5 1/2 yrs. But, he doesn't really bring anything to the table. Nothing. So, they made the race about Obama, Obama passed the test. Game. Set. Match.
I'll say it again: The smart move for McCain, if he really cares about his party and his country, is to withdraw and let the Republicans get a competent candidate.
VC-
Palin will over-perform in the VP debate, she will not give an acceptance speech for the ages.
She'll keep the ticket afloat, but not move it any farther.
I think McCain needs to attack Obama on taxes, pork, the size of government.
He needs to find some flaw in the "middle class tax cut" and magnify it as much as possible.
Obama says that 5% of working families won't be covered by his tax-cut .. in an election this close, maybe that 5% of working families is all that McCain needs?
I'm beginning to wonder if McCain really is intentionally throwing this election.
Thanks Nate......good to see the number over 60% again
Toby:
There are rules for replacing candidates - they don't need anything from the senate. It gets a bit hairier if the person dropping out (or dying) does so after the final ballots are set up, but even then the voters still vote for th ticket. Remembre that we do not vote for president, we vote for a lsate of electors supposedly committed to a party/candidate.
Before the roll call, McCain has the ability to withdraw the choice, but would run the risk of a floor revolt if the base doesn't like the replacement. To make it smooth she would have to pull her name before nominations care closed. Simply refusing to accept the nomination would really foul things up in aPR sense.
Once the convention is over, McCain cannot remove her and neither can the Republican Party; she would have to withdraw. The Rep National Comm gets to chose a replacement in a formal sense, but it wopuild be McCain's choice.
But the whole situation seriously weakens McCain's claim to having superior judgment to Obama. The only question is how much damage is done. Barring a major break, the election is Obama's. (Breaks could include a major gaffe. McCain killing Obma in the debates, or proof that he really is a Muslim. {Don't respond to that one,it was merely an expression of my belief that the likelihood of the first two is very low})
VC, in all seriousness... I don't think he's trying to lose.
I think he is losing his mental sharpness.
It really fits in to some of the other truly baffling decisions he has made of late.
I will not at all be surprised to find out a couple of years down the road that he has Alzheimer's.
i just wanted to say that FiveThirtyEight is my favorite new site of this election
love you guys
you rock
VCon, I'm so impressed. In a single day you've progressed through denial, anger and bargaining. You've now reached depression and are already bordering on acceptance.
I'm actually being serious for once... that shows a lot of inner strength on your part. I know it would take me longer if it had happened on our side... and I realize, of course, that it still could. That's the fun of politics... anything can happen.
This year it seems everything is happening.
Seriously. He had a chance her. Then he picks a VP candidate it turns out he didn't vet. I trusted him to vet it, thats what a candidate DOES!
What the FUCK?
vc: don't you think McCain was maybe getting his revenge on the republican party for f-ing him over in 2000 by picking Palin?
VC-
Huh? Don't give up, I never gave up on Kerry even as I cringed to hear Theresa's voice. Hang in there.
That 10 year older thing is death to the conservative. True death to her constituency. Who lets a 13 year old date?
diallo - don't suck up. Do something constructive, like calling Nate a wanker -he loves it.
Theres still a chance for a McCain win but it is rapidly fading and if he doesn't pull something out of his ass during this convention the race may get away from us.
VC:
A break from my rants to tip the cap to you. One of my biggest gripes against conservatives is their inability to admit they were wrong or admit defeat. Your frank assessment of the damage Palin has done is refreshing. I applaud your honesty.
Which is a greater indictment of McCain:
1. He and his campaign knew of all this stuff and picked her anyway?
2) He and his campaign didn't know any of this stuff because they didn't bother to vet her?
Yikes. As an Obama supporter, Palin just gets better and better.
"FWIW, last week K Bailey Hutch said she's running for TX governor"
great, we can replace mr. goodhair with ms. goodhair
1. The young couple was planning to get married?
Shouldn't Bristol's family values upbringing have taught her that sex before marriage is a sin?
And Ms. Palin wants to legislate for the rest of us that our children receive no sex education other than "abstinence only"? If she can't even pull it off with all of her wealth and resources, who the hell is she to tell the rest of us?
But the bottom line is John McCain's judgment. People say Obama is unprepared to lead the executive branch, but he organized and executed an historic campaign that brought down the most prohibitive non-incumbent favorite in primary history. People say that McCain IS prepared, but he chose his Vice President without vetting her, or even bothering to read the vetting that TPM Muckraker had already done! C'mon!
Even if I loved McCain, his insanely bad judgment and mountains of erratic statements would scare the living bejesus out of me. And adding that to his legendary temper? Protégeme!!!
VC-
It could be that McCain isn't a very good politician.
He's essentially had tenure in the senate for years, and hasn't really had to campaign for a long time.
The last time he did have to seriously campaign was in 2000 and he lost to Bush. A fight that he really should have won.
Even in the 2008 primary he was never seriously tested, with all the other candidates flailing about around him. In the early stages he practically ran his own campaign aground.
I think the McCain is just a bad politician with bad instincts. Any success he's had so far has been due to handing control over to the Rove-ites.
But of course, he is "The Candidate" and so gets to pick the VP he'd have to live with for 4 years. This was clearly his call, not the Rove-ites.
And he's quite possibly messed it up... But he's messed up a number of political judgment calls over the years.
There's a reason he didn't win in 2000, and a reason he almost completely self-destructed in this year's primaries. He is not the most stable candidate.
Oh good, Hanna is speeding up and may hit the East Coast as early mid-week. Sorry VC, you may not get enough viewers to change the field during your convention.
Forgive me : hahahhaHaHaHaHAAAHAAAHAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
"A break from my rants to tip the cap to you. One of my biggest gripes against conservatives is their inability to admit they were wrong or admit defeat. Your frank assessment of the damage Palin has done is refreshing. I applaud your honesty."
Same here.
As I look at a youtube link below with the picture of Tim Russert on the bottom of the page, I am starting notice how he's gone. Something seemed like it was missing lately from political coverage, I think that's it. I bet he would have been able to force Palin to answer all of these questions...Not sure any of these other lightweights could. RIP Tim.
VC
Eagleton withdrew on Aug. 1. He was in the veep nominee slot for about 2 weeks. The convention was middle of July.
don't you think McCain was maybe getting his revenge on the republican party for f-ing him over in 2000 by picking Palin?
If McCain wanted revenge he'd:
1) pick Lieberman
2) fire all those ass-bite lobbyists and go full-on anti-corporate
3) release all the dirt he's got on Casino Jack
4) tell the hypocritical evangelists to take a flying leap.
5) flop back to his original flips on about 30 maverick issues
Virginia Conservative:
"Why doesn't her dump her now if he is going to? This is the best possible day to do it."
Do you really think McCain could dump her? Doesn't the base love her? Wouldn't it make him look foolish after her being part of the ticket for a week? Unless something really awful comes up, I think he may be stuck with her.
In the last 40 years (since 1968), no Democratic nominee has won without being ahead by at least 17 points right after his convention -- Carter in 1976 led by 25 points, Clinton in 1992 led by 24 points, and Clinton in 1996 led by 17 points, with each Dem winning by much less in November.
Viewed historically, Barack's post-convention margin of 1 to 8 points (depending on the poll) is probably insufficient for him to win in November given how strong Republican nominees usually close in September/October.
Over at redstate.com they still love her.
The more I learn about Palin, the more I'm shocked by McCain's decision --- I always assumed that he was a pretty smart guy, but... to pick a VP you haven't really vetted?!?! WTF?!?!
I mean, what does that say about McCain? Not only was he willing to put his own campaign in danger by not vetting his VP, but he was also willing to put our country in danger by picking a #2 he knew next to nothing about. How can he say "Country First" when he doesn't even bother to fully vet the person who would succeed him?!?! Absolutely McInsane...
Hi all, conservative re-enforcements arriving. VC is getting swamped as he tries to hold the fort against a pack of lefties thinking they smell blood.
I won't bother joining this thread, as it's as old as the hills, but I fear not that I'll miss some critical point of argumentation. You guys are like maggots on rotten meat and I'm sure you'll return to this sorry excuse for critical examination.
As if the Daily Kos and DU didn't provide enough forums for self-immolation, you had to come here. I'm looking forward to warming on the fire over the next two months.
Oz.
(I have a special place in my heart for DCM from FL. "Trolls begone!". Ooohhh! Booga, booga! Don't scare me with your authoritative declarations! I'm too wimpish to fight back! Har. Har.)
Well, the first national poll with Obama 50%.
Now that Barack Obama is going to be President and Joe Biden is going to be Vice President.
Who is going to be Barack Obama's Attorney General-
Secretary of State-
Secretary of Defense
Secretary of Homeland Security
Energy
Education
Interior
Labor
Health and Human Services
Transporation
Housing and Urban Development
Agriculture
Commerce
EPA
Viewed historically, Republican candidates haven't totally disarmed themselves politically for the sake of winning a news cycle.
Oh come on guys. It's not over until it's over. If things still look this way on November first I'll join you and say the election's decided. But a lot of things can change in two months, and, as Albert Einstein put it: "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."
Oz-
You know that if Obama hired a lawyer over Rezko and there was a report due on it 31 October we'd be dancing in the streets.
To make things worse according to CNN they have been together since Bristol was 13.
Anyone have a source for this? I'm not finding it anywhere.
OzJohnnie said...
Hi all, conservative re-enforcements arriving. VC is getting swamped as he tries to hold the fort against a pack of lefties thinking they smell blood.
I won't bother joining this thread, as it's as old as the hills, but I fear not that I'll miss some critical point of argumentation. You guys are like maggots on rotten meat and I'm sure you'll return to this sorry excuse for critical examination.
hmmm...sounds like you won't be offering much substance. Old? I think this onion has many layers to it.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the previous poster who stated the father is 26 (23 when they started dating when she was 13)...that explains the secrecy.
That would be illegal...Even if it's consensual, it's still statuatory rape...
Paging Chris Hansen?
It's okay, they're vetting her now.
Stephanopolous says the GOP has "just dispatched about 10 Republican operatives and a team of lawyers to Alasaka to vet Palin."
Something about barn doors... and horses...?
The father is a statutory rapist too?
Oh shit,if true.
@nkpolitics1279
Who is going to be Barack Obama's Attorney General-
Secretary of State-
Secretary of Defense
Secretary of Homeland Security
Energy
Education
Interior
Labor
Health and Human Services
Transporation
Housing and Urban Development
Agriculture
Commerce
EPA
I think EPA should become the Department of the Environment, with Secretary Al Gore.
;-)
People using the USATODAY poll are not thinking very clearly - you people are smarter than this. The poll is using Obama's after convention numbers to McCain's before convention numbers. Does that seem accurate?
VC -
Of course we would be dancing in the streets, and for a couple reasons it would be justified:
1. Rezko is a convicted felon and an associate of BO. In fact, he's BO's Jack Abramoff.
2. It would represent another back-flip of BO from 'just a guy' to 'under the bus'.
3. BO is ignoring the story and trying via the justice dept and the nutroots to stops it's getting out. He fears the story for a reason.
So, yeah, we would be (and soon will be) jumping for joy. Palin's grandchild has none of these problems. In fact, it represents the opposite of these problems. It will go away, the children here will scream 'right-wing media!' and McCain will take the oath at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Oz.
Not only that VC...but Palin knew about the boyfriend and his age....What kind of parent lets their kid date someone that much older? That's disgusting....
McCain needs to send this family back to the trailer park ASAP.
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