This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.
Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.
By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.
A complete breakdown follows below the fold.REPUBLICANS
AK-AL Young R NAY
CO-4 Musgrave R NAY
CT-4 Shays R YEA
FL-8 Keller R NAY
FL-21 L Diaz-Balart R NAY
FL-24 Feeney R NAY
FL-25 M Diaz-Balart R NAY
ID-1 Sali R NAY
IL-10 Kirk R YEA
MI-7 Walberg R NAY
MI-9 Knollenberg R NAY
MO-6 Graves R NAY
NC-8 Hayes R NAY
NV-3 Porter R YEA
NY-29 Kuhl R NAY
OH-1 Chabot R NAY
OH-2 Schmidt R NAY
PA-3 English R NAY
VA-2 Drake R NAY
WA-8 Reichert R NAY
VULNERABLE GOP = 3 YEAS, 17 NAYS (15%)
OTHER GOP = 62 YEAS, 116 NAYS (35%)
DEMOCRATS
AZ-5 Mitchell D NAY
AZ-8 Giffords D NAY
CA-11 McNerney D YEA
FL-16 Mahoney D YEA
GA-8 Marshall D YEA
IL-14 Foster D YEA
IN-9 Hill D NAY
KS-2 Boyda D NAY
KY-3 Yarmuth D NAY
LA-6 Cazayoux D NAY
MS-1 Childers D NAY
NH-1 Shea-Porter D NAY
NY-20 Gillibrand D NAY
PA-4 Altmire D NAY
PA-10 Carney D NAY
PA-11 Kanjorski D YEA
TX-22 Lampson D NAY
WI-8 Kagen D NAY
VULNERABLE DEMS = 5 YEAS, 13 NAYS (28%)
OTHER DEMS = 135 YEAS, 82 NAYS (62%)
ALL VULNERABLES = 8 YEAS, 30 NAYS (21%)
OTHERS = 197 YEAS, 198 NAYS (50%)
UPDATE: A helpful reader named Matt Glassman passed along the fact that, among 26 congressmen NOT running for re-election (almost all of whom are Republicans), 23 voted in favor of the bill, as opposed to 2 against and one abstaining.
EDIT (4:24 PM): The count above may not be exact -- Eve Fairbanks finds 4 retiring Republicans who voted against the bill -- but the general point should stand.
9.29.2008
Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout
@ 3:18 PM
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269 comments
Sorry, Ink, but I don;t buy your logic.
This was a flawed bill and the dems were in league with the WH to pass it. Only the Reps were looking out for the people. And of the two candidates only oen had the vision to know this was coming and tried to do something about it.
Shame on Obama and the Dems for shouting him down.
Obama has now become fatally risky. Too unknown and untrustworthy to be the stweard over this economy. We ahve reached a tipping point.
And they do need to behave rationally, but isn't the capactiy (sic) for rational thought what makes us human?
"Capacity" is I think the key word.
It was pelosi who derailed the bill with her big mouth?
That is rich!
Obama by 2 in NC??
The Barr effect?
John Boehner: "I think that we need to renew our efforts to find a solution that Congress can support. I do believe that we could have gotten there today had it not been for this partisan speech that the speaker gave on the floor of the House."
Fuck you and everyone who shared that line of thinking. No, Pelosi shouldn't have made that speech and I'm sure she pissed Republicans off. BUT THAT SHOULD NOT AFFECT YOUR VOTE.
It sounds like the House Republicans will not support anything but their cockamamie "more deregulation is the answer" proposal. Which is bullshit. You aren't going to pass that bill, it's this (or a variant of this) or nothing. Compromise, or I and many Americans lose whatever faith we have left in Congress.
"We often act against our own self-interest based on emotion."
But we needn't. We have the capacity for rational thought - it just takes discipline.
Unless you're arguing that we lack the capacity for rational thought, because I'm confident that some humans can think rationally. And if it's the case that only some can, then it's those humans who should be making decisions for us.
soundlab1407: Pelosi is toxic. Why can't she save her venom for AFTER the vote.
Clearly, what was called for today was a BIPARTISAN BILL; a demonstration that the children in congress can come together for the good of the country.
After her stunt today, she should step down as Speaker. What a bufoon!
After Boehner made the comment that Pelosi's comments cost them some votes, Barney Frank asked for Republicans to come to him with 13 names and promised to talk extremely nicely to them if that's what it would take to get their votes. I think that points out the absurdity of Boehner's position.
Pelosi could have been more tactful. But really, to put the nation's entire economic future at risk because you didn't like what someone said? That sounds pretty pathetic.
don't panic,
I don't entirely disagree, but then again thats the way things are, and it effects members on both sides.
As I said earlier, if I was Bush, I would suspend the market, call a couple of days of bank holiday, and give Congress a little bit of cover to sort all of this out.
"'Capacity' is I think the key word."
If we can, then we can. A is A, after all.
That we don't is our own fault. We shouldn't be coddled for it.
"Sorry, Ink, but I don;t buy your logic."
It doesn't matter whether you buy it. Take one look at what the polls have done since this crisis began, and you'll see how the electorate feels.
Remeber, we are all just whiners. Jogn McCain's top econ said so!
DOW DOWN 21% YTD
Ok, not sure if anybody else responded to PeteKent, but ARE YOU ON DRUGS???? McCain was the only one to point out there was a problem!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?! The man has been absent on this issue almost from DAY ONE!! OBAMA was the one talking about the trouble our economy is in, and has been for some time now!
In fact, it was legislation that McCain backed that help lead us into this awful mess in the first place!!!
I'm sorry man, but you are so far off base it's not even funny. Why don't you wake up and smell what it is you're shoveling.
I think Ira's problem is that he took one too few econ courses. He's thinking in terms of perfect, theoretical economics, where free markets never fail. But look no further than the market for used cars, as explained in "Freakonomics" - a market failure occurs here because information inequality prevents the equilibrium from being achieved.
In a perfect, theoretical world where bankers always calculated risk correctly and required, oh I don't know, proof of income before lending money to homeowners, yeah, the market would never fail. I'd love to go live on that planet.
MCCAIN WILL WIN NC BY 30% !!!
on the jewish holidays impeding the vote---for issues of life and death one can skip a holiday. I would bet some rabbis would consider this such an issue and recommend law makers to go to services in the morning and return to voting later.
For those living in NC, do you think that Obama's recent surge there is linked to the financial meltdown and the responses of the two campaigns? I know that the financial sector is huge in Charlotte, but I'm not sure the extent to which it is reasonable to attribute the last three polls (Tied, O +2, and O +2) to the problems in the financial sector.
NEW THREAD
@Ira
"And even with lending their own money - loads of people are willing to risk in hope of reward."
But they weigh that risk. And here they weren't doing that.
that's because people don't act rationally. The theory of perfect markets is repeatedly proved wrong with every market crash.
Oh, and petekent, McCain is now blaming Obama for the bill failing, as well as claiming Pelosi's speach just before the vote derailed the bill.
Maybe you should try getting your facts straight, because it would appear you are not only out of touch with the country, but out of touch with your own candidate.
Ira,
I think as far as markets are concerned, there are two things that stop rational thought. One is selfishness, and the other is short termism.
Drd:
I think you are mistaken.
"The man has been absent on this issue almost from DAY ONE!! "
Well that would be Obama who did not think the bill was important enuf to interrupt his campagin over.
Also, Mccain was wise enuf to see immediately that the Obama-Bush Bill was DOA and that the House would not support it. Too bad he got shot down by an overwhelming number of idiots on Capitol Hill.
That will not happen to Pres. McCain: The only candidate to show leadersip in this crisis.
Ah, Freakonomics. Love that book!
It was there I learned that, for all the whining and moaning about the money it takes to run campaigns, the combined total of campaign funds spent by Bush and Kerry in 2004 was less than the total amount Americans spent on chewing gum that year.
Great stuff!!!
3
That's the grand total of House Republicans from Texas and Arizona who voted "aye" for the bailout bill.
It says something about the sway Bush and McCain have that they couldn't fare any better among their home state allies.
There are 23 total Republicans in the House from the two states. None of the four Arizona Republicans, conservatives all, supported the measure.
Drd:
McCain will get it right. I like his twin targets of Pelosi and Obama. That;s a tag team we can beat!
To my congress critters,
Now that the "experts" tried to pass a top-down bailout plan let me suggest a bottom-up approach.
Simply stated, expand the existing FHA-235 plan which helps new homeowners with mortgage assistance to address mortgages that are in trouble.
This provides support for the housing markets since a plethora of foreclosures or forced sales will not drive home prices down. It makes the mortgages "good", while bailing out the financial system.
This could be done immediately and simply.
There are clearly additional issues that need to be addressed so the taxpayers are not the ones solely paying for this bailout. The financial institutions need to also pay for this support. But those issues can be addressed more leisurely once the mortgage market is stabilized.
Let me elaborate.
The FHA-235 program pays a portion of a new homeowners mortgage payment each month. This is determined by the size and income of the family. It is adjusted annually. [This information may be out of date since it was a long time ago that I was helped by this program by the philosophy is applicable to the current situation.]
The expansion of the program to cover troubled mortgages would similarly pay portions of the payment. The mortgages would first be converted to fixed-rate mortgages at current rates with the financial institutes covering all the costs for the conversion since most of the taxpayers trapped in this situation cannot afford the additional costs. The ability of the homeowner to pay the resulting mortgage would be determined. The gap between ability to pay and the payment would be handled by the assistance program.
It would be reasonable to collect income tax on any profits made from the sale of these homes. This would be an exclusion from current IRS regulations that exclude this profit under some conditions. It might be a good gesture to still exclude the lower cost homes, however.
The advantages are this supports the individual homeowners. It supports the pricing of the housing market. It supports the financial institutes by making bad mortgages acceptable without devaluing any currently good mortgages.
petekent,
you see thats the importance of 'the fundamentals of the economy are strong'. From the get go, McCain called it wrong. His campaign suspension trick was a stunt ot catch up lost ground that backfired badly.
@Ira
"We often act against our own self-interest based on emotion."
But we needn't. We have the capacity for rational thought - it just takes discipline.
Unless you're arguing that we lack the capacity for rational thought, because I'm confident that some humans can think rationally. And if it's the case that only some can, then it's those humans who should be making decisions for us.
loads of people act irrationally. And btw - based on this parafgraph - you should be voting for Obama, because there is no doubt which candidate is more rational of the two.
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
Abraham Lincoln
I'd forgotten that one - great quote!
dawolf,
Romney was on the morning news, claiming credit for the bill.
Pretty embarrassing stuff. These guys are just all over the place.
Ira, you're an IDIOT! As a fellow Canadian, I am ashamed.
Ira said: "Markets can't fail because the actors in them (people) behave selfishly (all people behave selfishly - all of the time). As such, they won't take unreasonable risks (like lending a bunch of money to people who won't ever pay it back) unless there's some other incentive encouraging them to do so."
Your theory might hold true if there was no such thing as GREED. Greed causes selfish people to take unreasonable risks. Then there are those (like McCain) who just like to gamble. If people didn't take unreasonable risks, Vegas wouldn't exist.
Ira,
You're showing a high degree of dogmatism here and leaving yourself open so here goes.
Tell me what government regulation caused the failure of the Auction Rate Securities market this February.
Also tell me why you think its inconceivable that although the actors in a market (usually corporations) may wish to act in their own rational best interest, the human agents acting for the corporation may act in their own best interests to the detriment of the corporation. Additionally tell me how you propose to protect the corporation from the people running it for their own interest without regulations.
I don't entirely disagree, but then again thats the way things are, and it effects members on both sides.
As I said earlier, if I was Bush, I would suspend the market, call a couple of days of bank holiday, and give Congress a little bit of cover to sort all of this out.
markymark,
i'm not trying to pin it on one side. i am just saying that in times of crisis, people have to understand what is more important, and the observation of a religious holiday, with all respect, cannot be an unsurmountable obstacle.
in any case, even if the very observant stay at home, the rest should be at work tomorrow, which should easily be >90%
In a perfect, theoretical world where bankers always calculated risk correctly and required, oh I don't know, proof of income before lending money to homeowners, yeah, the market would never fail. I'd love to go live on that planet.
in that world you wouldn't have the stock market moving much. Because after all, it's chasing profit that moves the stock market - and for every winner there is a loser, assuming the stock market does not rise. And with perfect information, why would it continuously rise?
"Well that would be Obama who did not think the bill was important enuf to interrupt his campagin over."
McCain didn't interrupt his campaign either. He just pretended he did. Don't give me that "he was a leader on this" bullshit. His role in this has been 100% transparently political.
haha the propaganda begins!
All CNN text alers have been referring to it as the "bailout" now the last one they sent me is called, for the first time I believe, the "economic rescue"
Oh goody! McCain's about to make a speech!
Can't wait to hear this!
@lat
Some strains of Rabbinic thought would make it mandatory for observant Jewish members of Congress to participate in the work (Except possibly on Yom Kippur.) Although I doubt that most Jewish members of Congress are all that observant.
I know that Lieberman does Senatorial work on Shabbat, since that was for the benefit of other people and he had a duty to uphold, but would not campaign on Shabbat.
When he was running for VP he was in Portland over a Shabbat and came to our shul to daven. The Secret Srvice squad was spread out acress the front, wearing kipot and looking vigilantly out at the congregants
(For those of you not up on the lingo, he came to our synagogue to engage in public prayer.)
Dow officially closed down 778.
Thank God I'm still a couple years removed from entering the job market.
@Ira:
Consider the "prisoner's dilemma" before you conclude that the cumulative actions of rational indicuals leads to a rational outcome.
petekent: Also, Mccain was wise enuf to see immediately that the Obama-Bush Bill was DOA and that the House would not support it.
Ah, didn't McCain say in the debate that he'd vote for the bailout? If so, the resulting House vote shows how little pull he has.
C'm on, you can't just make stuff up. There's no evidence that McCain did squat on this issue.
i haven't actually done the work yet, but i'm pretty sure this was a radicals vs. moderates vote, with the radicals squeezing out the moderates. there are more radicals on the rep side, so the lean shouldn't be surprising. if anyone wants to do the comparison, voteview.com is the address for (academically sound) ideology scores.
mccain doesn't even know that the fed was created to act as a lender of last resort. anything mccain says on the economy can be thrown on the junk pile.
Few members in competitive races voted for the bill, but with such a small number of members in competitive races, it's hard to ascribe defeat of the bill to reelection fears. Only 30% of GOP members voted in favor; the large majority of those voting against did so for ideological reasons, not their campaigns. That's where this bill went down.
This is serious s**t, folks. If/when the commercial paper market has been frozen for a few days, firms are going to start missing payroll. Hello, Main Street.
Democrats provided 68.5% of safe-seat YES votes & 41.4% of safe-seat NO votes. Republicans provided 31.47% of safe-seat YES votes and 58.6% of safe-seat NO votes.
Democrats provided 62.5% of tossup- & leaning-district YES votes and 43.3% of toss- & leaning-district NO votes. Republicans provided 37.5% of tossup- & leaning-district YES votes and 56.7% of tossup- & leaning-district NO votes.
Note the similarities.
"all people behave selfishly - all of the time"
Bullshit. That's completely unsupported by the empirical evidence. You're basing your economic beliefs on 17th Century science. It's time to update your understanding of how real human beings really behave.
Chad:
Okay, so you haven't invested entirely in stocks. My point is that your investments involved risk. You can't whine about it when they don't perform as well as you had hoped. That's what "risk" means. There's a non-zero chance that the shit is going to hit the fan and you're going to lose all your money.
Many people knew that the housing market was a bubble waiting to pop, and that the insane bundling of huge numbers of subprime mortgages by large banks was eventually going to result in this collapse.
If you think that giving away $700 billion to all of Paulson's buddies is going to fix this problem then you're delusional. We're not even halfway through this death spiral, regardless of whether this giveaway bill passes or not.
Mark Dennis Kucinich's words from earlier today: "what this bill does, unfortunately, it just kind of helps things keep going until the next trillion-dollar crisis, which is coming in a few months when the Alt-A or jumbo mortgages, which are being reset in ’09 and 2010, will find their maximum financial stress on marketplaces. So I think that you have to realize that this—what we’re doing today is not going to forestall a recession, it is not going to solve the problem of a collapse of mortgages, it’s not going to help homeowners."
Stunning. McCain could not get out of his Press Conference fast enough. What are he and Boehner talking about right now? Cantor was considered for VP? What are those 2 discussing?
The GOP is screwed. "Let's Get Frank" completely schooled the Cantor Crybaby Crowd. "That mean, San Francisco Grandma hurt our feelings!" Disgusting.
The GOP as it stands now WILL NEVER work with Democrats. They never have & they never will. Moreover, the GOP has now relegated McCain to the dustbin of history.
And all because of that mean, old Grandma.
Trillion Dollar Johnny has set a new record - the largest one day loss in shareholder value in US History - $1.2 Trillion.
Meanwhile his reckless and erratic behavior is costing him the election.
New Rass - all moved 3-5% for Obama in a week.
PA - +8
VA - +3
OH - +1
FL - +1
CO - +1
Soundlab1407 said: "Pelosi is toxic. Why can't she save her venom for AFTER the vote."
Oh, boo hoo. $700 billion with no oversight whatsoever, as the bill was first crafted by the Republicans. Paulson trying to put pressure on everyone to shove the bill through as soon as possible. McCain in there with Boehner throwing the discussions into chaos. She has every right to be pissed at the Republicans for causing this mess, the fact is that subprime mortgages exploded after 2000. This has happened under Bush's watch, the same guy who managed to take a balanced budget and turn it into our country's biggest deficit ever. Not only due to his disastrous error and subsequent mismanagement of Afghanistan and Iraq.
Pelosi doesn't say anything in that little five minute speech that isn't true.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey3ZlsmIkz4&eurl=http://reason.com/blog/show/129111.html
---"Markets can't fail because the actors in them (people) behave selfishly (all people behave selfishly - all of the time). As such, they won't take unreasonable risks (like lending a bunch of money to people who won't ever pay it back) unless there's some other incentive encouraging them to do so."---
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. Wow, welcome to 1793. There are entire branches of economics that deal with the irrationality of markets.
It's obvious to me that MOST of those who voted against this bill did so for political reasons. And this analysis is proof of that.
We're probably in for hard times no matter what happens with this bailout and no matter who wins the election. But I think that's all the more reason to Vote For Barack Obama.
Think about how FDR saved America in the '30s. I think Obama can do that in the '10s of the 21st century.
Representative Ben Chandler of Kentucky has a safe seat in the House, so safe he's thinking about 2010 and replacing Jim Bunning in the Senate. It's the same calculus with a longer time frame.
The Fix copied your story!!!
That guy is such a freakin' HACK it's amazing!!! And way less endearing as a political dork than the folks at 538.
None of the four Oklahoma congresspersons who voted against it, one democrat and three republicans, is in a competitive district.
No one's mentioned it yet, but this analysis got a mention by Cooper on 360 last night. Nice work!
dow is up the next day already! The bailout is right up there with the Medicare no negotiating package and the war in Iraq.
dow is up the next day already! The bailout is right up there with the Medicare no negotiating package and the war in Iraq.
Absoutely Amazing! And pitiful!
This crisis is the invention and was maintenanced by liberals and it is liberals who designed the failure of the bail out...which happens to be fortunate for us but, that wasn't their intention.
The Red Herrings From Socialists
Sniveling accusations of 'lack of regulation' as the cause of this economic disaster in order to duck the rightful blame is throwing red herrings at us as if we were seals at the zoo...well, I'm not blowing into a row of horns for more.
The over-regulation which Clinton signed in 1998 mandated lenders be pressured by liberal elected officials to make obviously bad loans to the poor as a form of entitlement. THIS is exactly what they did. The most costly entitlement ever subversely ( or otherwise )perpetuated on the American people by socialists within their plan to redistribute the wealth while personally profiting by it.
Unfortunately for all concerned this hand-out got away from the socialists denying them the ability to continue to hide the staggering cost from us of a proven failure of their idiotology.
With elections only a month away will we reward these socialists by allowing them to continue throwing us red herrings while ruining our lives and future?
Plausible deniability? by Dr. John Lott 9/22/08
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,425924,00.html
FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QBRIsCkGQ0
Whose Policies Led To The Credit Crisis? by Ed Morrissey
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/whose-policies-led-to-the-credit-crisis/?print=1
FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYz1rbB5V1s&feature=related
Absoutely Amazing! And pitiful!
This crisis is the invention and was maintenanced by liberals and it is liberals who designed the failure of the bail out...which happens to be fortunate for us but, that wasn't their intention.
The Red Herrings From Socialists
Sniveling accusations of 'lack of regulation' as the cause of this economic disaster in order to duck the rightful blame is throwing red herrings at us as if we were seals at the zoo...well, I'm not blowing into a row of horns for more.
The over-regulation which Clinton signed in 1998 mandated lenders be pressured by liberal elected officials to make obviously bad loans to the poor as a form of entitlement. THIS is exactly what they did. The most costly entitlement ever subversely ( or otherwise )perpetuated on the American people by socialists within their plan to redistribute the wealth while personally profiting by it.
Unfortunately for all concerned this hand-out got away from the socialists denying them the ability to continue to hide the staggering cost from us of a proven failure of their idiotology.
With elections only a month away will we reward these socialists by allowing them to continue throwing us red herrings while ruining our lives and future?
Plausible deniability? by Dr. John Lott 9/22/08
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,425924,00.html
FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QBRIsCkGQ0
Whose Policies Led To The Credit Crisis? by Ed Morrissey
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/whose-policies-led-to-the-credit-crisis/?print=1
FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYz1rbB5V1s&feature=related
Barney Frank is the Congressman who made the attack on 9/11 possible with a law that denied law enforcement the ability to stop, question or turn known terrorists around when entering our country.
Frank is also one of the principle figures who orchestrated this entitlement to people who couldn't afford homes.
Barney Frank IS America's Domestic Enemy!
Plausible deniability? by Dr. John Lott 9/22/08
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,425924,00.html
FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QBRIsCkGQ0
Whose Policies Led To The Credit Crisis? by Ed Morrissey
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/09/16/whose-policies-led-to-the-credit-crisis/?print=1
FOX Video Clips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYz1rbB5V1s&feature=related
This discussion (on MSNBC) seems to contradict the assertions of this post:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26956607#26956607
ALTERNATIVE TO THE $700 BILLION DOLLAR BAILOUT TO NOWHERE
The mortgage securitization and derivatives businesses which has been the beneficiary of extraordinary profits is undergoing a profound and enduring fundamental shift that is the result of unprecedented leveraged and irresponsible risk taking. The problem however is being exacerbated by speculative panic and hoarding by financial institutions around the world. Financial institutions fearful of a run on its deposits or other funding are hoarding. Lacking government intervention financial institutions are clearly vulnerable to liquidity runs.
.
LIBOR RATES ARE A RESPONSE TO CREDIT CONCERNS AND OLD FASHION HOARDING which is an interesting parallel to the Great Depression. Interestingly the Great Depression was preceded by the Republican administrations of Harding 1920 to1923 and Coolidge 1923 to 1929. Both of these republican administrations were laissez-faire which allowed the markets to operate with minimal government regulation or supervision. Corporate dynasties formed. At the same time the imbalance of wealth and income reached unprecedented levels. Construction and automobile manufacturing which had enjoyed spectacular growth were in contraction in the year preceding the stock market crash of 1929. When the stock market crashed there was a huge excess of goods on the market ( ANYTHING SOUND FAMILIAR??)
.
The threat for this crisis to bring down the economy is very real. Financial Services is a critical sector of the economy. An orderly shrinkage of the financial services sector is in every Americans best interest. The $700 Billion Dollar question is how best to go about it. First we need to recognize that the problem is far bigger than the $700 Billion the Treasury is asking for.
.
We need to start to understand that the engine of our economy growth was tied to false demand created by leverage and extraordinary risk taking which included extending credit to less than credit worthy borrowers. Regulation at this point is a mute point as risk tolerance has already contracted rather dramatically. What we are confronting now are the consequences that follow.
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The American people understand that different investments carry different levels of risks and that it is precisely that risk / reward premium that drives investors to invest their money in equities or corporate bonds over conversely CDs or TBills.
.
The risk / reward understanding forms the basis of the reasoning that the equity and bond holders must bear the brunt of the cost in solving this crisis facing the financial services sector less we face a moral hazard not to mention the outrage of the American people.
.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet is already extraordinarily exposed to the risk created by the fallout in the financial services sector. The Federal Reserve is at a point where it needs to direct more of its attention towards encouraging consolidation. Weak banks must either merge or be shut down. Congress needs to understand that the government cannot keep making injections like the proposed $700 billion dollar bailout without overwhelming the US balance sheet. (Painful as it might sound there are really only two ways to restore the US balance sheet: recapitalization through taxation or inflation.)
.
THE ALTERNATIVE TO SPENDING $700 BILLION
The role of the government in this crisis should be two fold. Its primary role should be that of a clearinghouse for disposing of impaired assets. The government should not buy but rather only advance money to the financial institutions who surrender assets and the amount extended should be based in large part on the predicted eventual sales price. The government would be charged with package these assets in a full range of standardize lot sizes while providing prospective bidders with material information about the asset class. The government would use broad means to solicit bids. In an effort to maximize the offer prices from bidders the government would offer financing on all US headquartered financial institutions assets. The amount of the financing available would be based on a sliding scale that has some loose correlation to the realized percentage of the bid to the assets original value. For example bids at 50 percent of asset value might be offered 50 percent financing whereas bids at 20 percent of asset value would only be eligible for 20 percent financing. The financing component would allow the government to extract greater participation and higher bids for assets. The financing would provide much less exposure to the US balance sheet than an outright bailout. By limiting advance payments as well as the financing to assets offered by US based institutions we would avoid the backlash of bailing out foreign held debt.
.
The plan is pretty straight forward. I welcome your thoughts and other points of view as well as scathing criticisms.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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^^ very nice
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sesli chatsesli sohbetseslichatseslisohbetseslithanks for comments
sesli chatsesli sohbetseslichatseslisohbetthanks for articles
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