This was predictable, I suppose, but it's remarkable to see how strong a relationship there is between today's failed vote on the bailout and the competitive nature of different House races.
Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as "toss-up" or "lean" by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211.
By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don't have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.
A complete breakdown follows below the fold.REPUBLICANS
AK-AL Young R NAY
CO-4 Musgrave R NAY
CT-4 Shays R YEA
FL-8 Keller R NAY
FL-21 L Diaz-Balart R NAY
FL-24 Feeney R NAY
FL-25 M Diaz-Balart R NAY
ID-1 Sali R NAY
IL-10 Kirk R YEA
MI-7 Walberg R NAY
MI-9 Knollenberg R NAY
MO-6 Graves R NAY
NC-8 Hayes R NAY
NV-3 Porter R YEA
NY-29 Kuhl R NAY
OH-1 Chabot R NAY
OH-2 Schmidt R NAY
PA-3 English R NAY
VA-2 Drake R NAY
WA-8 Reichert R NAY
VULNERABLE GOP = 3 YEAS, 17 NAYS (15%)
OTHER GOP = 62 YEAS, 116 NAYS (35%)
DEMOCRATS
AZ-5 Mitchell D NAY
AZ-8 Giffords D NAY
CA-11 McNerney D YEA
FL-16 Mahoney D YEA
GA-8 Marshall D YEA
IL-14 Foster D YEA
IN-9 Hill D NAY
KS-2 Boyda D NAY
KY-3 Yarmuth D NAY
LA-6 Cazayoux D NAY
MS-1 Childers D NAY
NH-1 Shea-Porter D NAY
NY-20 Gillibrand D NAY
PA-4 Altmire D NAY
PA-10 Carney D NAY
PA-11 Kanjorski D YEA
TX-22 Lampson D NAY
WI-8 Kagen D NAY
VULNERABLE DEMS = 5 YEAS, 13 NAYS (28%)
OTHER DEMS = 135 YEAS, 82 NAYS (62%)
ALL VULNERABLES = 8 YEAS, 30 NAYS (21%)
OTHERS = 197 YEAS, 198 NAYS (50%)
UPDATE: A helpful reader named Matt Glassman passed along the fact that, among 26 congressmen NOT running for re-election (almost all of whom are Republicans), 23 voted in favor of the bill, as opposed to 2 against and one abstaining.
EDIT (4:24 PM): The count above may not be exact -- Eve Fairbanks finds 4 retiring Republicans who voted against the bill -- but the general point should stand.
9.29.2008
Swing District Congressmen Doomed Bailout
@ 3:18 PM
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269 comments
FIRST !!
great post Nate
Probably explains why this bill was likely going to pass in the senate, with only 10 or so seats even in question.
This first crap is so lame. Nate should automatically delete it.
i want new polls
where the fu** are they ?
We're fucked.
ross
don't be jealous
It looks like scenario two played out. McCain is doomed.
The Bailout Bill: First Impressions
The Debate: Live Analysis
Obama 292, McCain 246
DOW is about to dip 700 pts for the day.
Nate,
The title of this post seems wrong. Take the vulnerable members out and the bill still fails. Two-thirds of safe Republicans voted against this.
I think that means your title should be "Conservative Congressmen Doomed Bailout"
I believe this was a singular act of courage on the part of the House to reject this flawed bill.
O'Bush and their cronies on the Hill lead by the architects of this mess -- Dowd and Frank -- are getting what they deserve.
Obama has shown zero leadersip on this and only McCain had the courage to step up and say attention must be paid.
In the rush to hold the debate, an op[portunity was lost for serious consideration and compromise.
There are many heroes in the House today.
Let the Democrat party be the party of Wall Street!
When you see these results - what are you thinking? Probably what the rest of us are thinking.... How do I cut back, how can I make do, essentially how I can financially hibernate (especially If you don't have any free cash to invest). A good exercise for Nate: Figure out the probability of this attitude, multiply by about 100 million, and you get the next depression.
No jealousy, it is inherently lame to type "first" on your comment. I think we all know that.
How far do the financial markets have to drop before this gets taken up again?
This is what the House was designed to do: reflect popular pressure. Once again the founder's intent pays off! I am half serious about that, but I am totally serious about this:
The Republican party isn't just in trouble, it has more or less ceased to exist. This vote separated the Republican party into two different ideological camps: the big business republicans, in the administration and who supported the bill; and the actual believers in deregulation and small government, who opposed the bill.
I imagine that the Republican party is going to have a great internal debate about which side will be the ideological core of the party.
I would be interested in knowing which side the conservatives (the real conservatives, who have intellectual positions, not the name callers) on this site fall into.
The GOP brand is going to continue to burn for this. The rethugs can try and get their "WHAAAA PELOSI HURT MY FEEELINGS!!!" Bullshit (shameless spin) to stick, but at the end of the cycle when people see the economy going to shit, and then see that the GOOpers couldn't even get 40% to support it, they will blame them.
This is the downside to democracy folks. When you have politicians that are forced to listen to the will of the people, you run into scenarios like this where the masses have no fucking clue about anything and take the wrong position on complex issues. I'm not denouncing democracy, but this is the system at its worst.
McCain will burn as well. Not only due to damage of the republican brand in general, but he will be seen as the one who was gung ho about "getting this done" and failed.
If you guys want some advice on what to best do with your money/investments, read and monitor the following board:
http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance
Heaven forbid the GOP take some measure of responsibility for cleaning up their own mess.
Hey, PeteKent. The Dow is gonna drop 700 points today. Hopefully not much more than that. There are going to be real life ramifications from this for real people. It's a time to mourn, I think. Not cheer.
I'm 100% democrat and I am happy this bill was rejected. The bailout is not the answer. Not how it is structured right now.
Obama will pay a price, I think for his laissez-faire attitude on this.
McCain was the lone player to say there was a problem.
Is it time yet to suspend the campaigns and fix this?
Or should we continue to leave it to crooked Democrat leaders in thrall to Wall St and far removed from Main Street?
Looks to me like the bill was not particularly popular among safe Democrats, either.
Why did they force a vote they couldn't win? Doesn't anyone know how to count noses?
Complete economic meltdown is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
Dow down over 700 now and the S&P which is an even better indicator because they actually tell us more about investment is down over 8%.
As usual...
Excellent analysis Nate
The Bush administration did a terrible job in marketing this bill in a way that would have made in politically palatable in swing districts.
Ya, the GOP got us into this and haven't come up with any solution to get us out. Clearly this is the Democrats' fault.
/bizzaro land
Palin will now suspend her campaign until Friday. ;)
LOL keep spinning pete.
Guess which candidate, out of the blue, "suspended" his campaign and inserted himself into this?
Guess which of the candidates has been going around all week saying how he's been "getting things done" regarding the bailout?
It will be McCain that suffers, along with the ignorant public.
No one is cheering over this. But there are going to be a few "I told you sos".
Obama has advised the markets to "stay calm".
I think a little passion out of the bloodless Obama might have helped.
The Democrats are soooo out of touch on this.
"Petekent", as usual,lives in an alternate reality. McCain sat at the meeting with the President and the Congressional leaders and said nothing until he was asked his opinion by Obama.
The Repubs are good at saying no, and saying the government is the problem, but are not good at offering solutions.
McCain may need to suspend his campaign yet again as it is run by Wall Street lobbyists.
This pinnacle of failure of the administration has sealed Bush's fate as one of the worst presidents in United States history. He will be remembered even worse than Carter.
The fact is this all started with Jimmy Carter and succesive pressure from Democrats to force banks to lend to poor people. The Dems disrupted the market and now we are all paying the price.
The Republican Party has returned to its Main Street roots, while increasingly the Dems look like the party of Tammany Hall.
Vulnerable Democrats voted for the bill at almost as high a rate as safe Republicans, and at twice the rate of vulnerable Republicans.
You know PeteKent, those same crybaby constituents that complained about this bill are going to be screaming like little girls when they lose their jobs and livelihood in this upcoming recession which is going to be severe. It took leadership to VOTE for this, not vote against it. Anybody can vote against the "fat cats".
PeterKent: McCain was for the bailout. I don't see how inserting himself into the middle of the negotiations only to see his 'side' ultimately lose is in any way a positive for him.
Petekent, McCain and his people were bragging yesterday and today that McCain had delivered the GOP votes needed to pass this bill.
McCain was taking credit for this bill this morning.
Your candidate looks like an idiot.
How far do the financial markets have to drop before this gets taken up again?
My thought exactly. I'm guessing 2000 pts off the Dow (including today), and it passes on Thursday. Shall we open a betting pool?
NATE
just saw your article online at the New Republic on why the FL jewish vote is not the tipping point in my state...
Is that your title or did some editor get 'cute' ???
The New Republic
'Mis-Schlep'
by Nate Silver
"Why your Bubbie will not decide the election"
Post Date Monday, September 29, 2008
@ http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=9f7761b4-6230-4da9-a3b3-a638fc2b2f3b
As I've asked so often---how long before intelligent people start to question democracy as a viable 21st century social contract?
Because, personally, I have some HUGE doubts.
Now what happens?
New SurveyUsa Poll in FL goes as follows:
JM:48%
BO:47%
Its weird that Obama wins the mens vote but loses women's vote. Plus Obama get 79% AA and JM gets 21%?? Thats unlikely, but what do i know? The Hispanic vote is tied.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae88e59-f8e1-4ea1-9397-5c19f91abcc1
Great Democrats got us out of the Depression in 1930's, the recession in 1990's, and Barack Obama will get us out of the economic meltdown of 2008.
The Republic party needs to start rooting for President Obama to succeed instead of hoping our economy continues to circle the drain. Shame on the Republic party.
As this crisis crows we may reach a tipping point.
Up till now Obama benfited from low information voters flocking to him thinking, wrongly in my view, that he would better protect them from calamity than McCain.
Now we see that Obama's cool detachment has done nothing and that only Mccain was the man of action, the lone voice crying out for sanity. Will he be blamed for not having his voice heard above those who would shout him down?
I don't think so.
Worse for Obama the fears that in fact this may be a catastrophe will ahve the voters scrambling for an alternative with experience and good judgement.
The naked assertion of "change" is last month's mantra.
Nc_voter, this recession will be longer and deeper than most recessions people remember. One huge problem which has not been discussed is the balance sheets of many safe institutions are in tatters, I am not talking about banks, I am talking about cash rich companies like Target and John Deere. These guys have had their balance sheets thrashed and will literally have to implement austerity programs and layoffs because of it. In the middle of all this the democrats will be able to at least say they had a tentative deal until McCain came in to "save the day" on Thursday. The whining from the same constituency that says no to this bailout will be palpable when they lose their jobs.
I see "petekent" is following the GOP talking point that the failure of Wall Street is to blamed on Main Street and that working (i.e. poor) Americans caused this problem 30 years ago. Of course, this fiction requires that we forget about the Reagan, Bush I and Bush II, presidential administrations.
Great strategy for the financial crisis: blame working Americans!
I understand why the republicans voted against it but this is a huge risk for the country. This is like playing chicken with the future of the country. Dangerous game indeed.
I always believed the downfall of our country would be the partisan rancor, now we're seeing it first hand.
PeteKent said: In the rush to hold the debate, an op[portunity was lost for serious consideration and compromise.
Maybe now McCain will have time to read that 3 page plan. Moron.
Petekent, you are such a fool I'm beginning to think you must be a republican congressman.
Barney Frank skwered those 12 Republicans whose "feelings were hurt" after Pelosi blamed it all on Bush. Everyone at the press conference burst into laughter.
Bonerman, Blunt and Cantor have been embarassing. Do you suppose McCain and Palin have inspired them?
LOL, petey the parrot drags up the classic GOP talking point It's Carters fault™
He hasn't been president for nearly THIRTY fucking years.
if anything caused this shit, it was the deregulation that your hero Reagan and Bush 1 started in the 80's, and folks like Phil Graham in the 90s.
Can we bury the myth of "trickle down economics" for good?
ARE YOU FREAKIN KIDDING ME GOP ???
I LOST $70K TODAY BECAUSE THE SPEAKER HURT YOUR FEELINGS AND YOU VOTED NAY ??/
F*CK!
For those who understand:
L'shana tovah.
No doubt this might be the final nail in President Bush's reputation's coffin. Foreign policy disaster followed by economic disaster, wow how much worse could it get?
Honestly a bail out of some descrpition, even if it is changed later, is needed now, or at least some other plan.
In conservative mythology, the Republic party gets the credit for all good things while the Democratic party gets the blame when things go wrong. Conservative mythos is almost pathological.
Hoo boy, here we go. I don't know jack, but I'll wager that the polls are going to be insane now.
This could ruin pretty much everyone in the short term, right? Republican deregulation is easy to blame, even though B. Clinton certainly helped their cause. But it's a Democratic Congress that's proposing a flawed solution.
As for the candidates, I suspect that real soon noone will care that McCain precipitated the breakdown of last Wednesday's version of the bill, or that both he and Obama devolved into mealy-mouthed obfuscations in the debate. What's going to matter is what happens next. The public still trusts Obama and Democrats more on the economy. If Obama stands up and takes the lead, he's going to be unstoppable.
Because at this point the public isn't just angry; we're scared, and we need someone to lead. Who's going to do it? Republicans who want to let us rot? Democrats that won't defy big money? Hold onto your asses, because it's going to be a wild ride.
If this thing goes down McCain might not win a state
I don't comprehend any conservative voting for this bailout. So few Republicans really understand our conservative philosophy it makes me sick. To whomever said it early- I'd love to kick all the big business Republicans out of the party. I'd rather be a permanent minority party than a corrupt principle less party.
I absolutely dig your work, Nate ... fantastic site.
The overseas markets futures are fairing much worse, it is going to be a financial melt down. Since this all thing began two weeks ago my portfolio lost 400K, but what gives me comfort is the fact that Obama is ahead in the polls.
PeteKent -
Are you fucking retarded? Gallup Poll from Fri-Sat showed that Barack is the only major US pol with a net favorable rating on the economy.
McCain with his "Funduhmentuhls are...uh...stroongg!" refrain isn't reassuring anybody.
If the banks hadn't been encouraged to lend money to people who couldn't pay it back, we wouldn't have this problem. It was over-regulation that caused this problem in the first place.
Why would banks ever put themselves in this position on purpose? They're not idiots. There were government-created incentives to get people into houses, particularly in disadvantaged communities - but there was a good reason why those people din't already have houses. They couldn't afford houses.
And eventually the whole thing fell apart.
It's good to see Republicans finally rediscovering their principles. This must make Ron Paul so proud.
Petey you must be losing oxygen to your brain from the massive spinning you've been attempting.
McCain did not "warn" against this. In fact, the last week he and his surrogates have been basically bragging that he "saved the bill" by rounding up the republicans to vote for this.
Fact: If the House GOOpers had just brought the numbers of votes they promised, this bill would have passed.
McCain failed. The GOP failed. As the economy goes to shit during the next few months, it was the Rethuglican party that will take the blame.
One more thing--I don't want "passion" from Obama. I want strength. He's gotta start channeling his inner Kennedy, and get in the faces of big business. Forget McCain; just as in Iraq, we need a plan, dammit. Not yelling. A plan.
The American idiots think that just because they don't have money in the stock market this crisis doesn't effect them. When there is a domino effect of bank failures that even the FDIC can't cover and their life savings is gone, then maybe they'll figure it out!
I'd love to kick all the big business Republicans out of the party. I'd rather be a permanent minority party than a corrupt principle less party.
100% agreed. You guys should just vote Democratic. Who needs power when you've got Truth, right?
*convulsive laughter*
If there is one line that is going to decide this lesson it is this 'The fundamentals of the economy are strong.'
I'm with Matthew:
"I imagine that the Republican party is going to have a great internal debate about which side will be the ideological core of the party."
It will be interesting to see which forces emerge to shape the new Republican Party. Its really hard to believe now that any kind of McCain brand can take hold.
If all Democrats had voted for it, it would have passed.
End of story.
Yeah - all those disadvantaged communities in Miami, Nevada and Southern California.
Yep - it was all the immigrant help that was buying those million dollar homes. Keep telling yourself that.
Please - the banks had a financial incentive to do it becuase they thought they wouldnt get caught holding the bag.
The Republican Brand is over. They are going to be the party that brought down the America Clinton built up.
Americans are going to vote the bums out. Massive momentum boast to Obama and the Dems.
The End of the Republican coalition has come.
thanks Judas Priest. Gmar Hatima Tova to you.
"Great Democrats got us out of the Depression in 1930's"
No they didn't. The war got you out of teh depression, and it only lasted that long because FDR's New Deal prolonged it (just like this bailout would have done here).
Is there a single economist here? Gods this misinformation is irritating.
PeteKent is the designated douchebag on this thread - aka the John Boehner of 538.
ira -
Ah yes. The conservative mythology spin. Back to Newt Gingrich University with you...go on now...
"the banks had a financial incentive to do it becuase they thought they wouldnt get caught holding the bag."
Exactly. The way to protect us from this in the future is to leave them holding the bag now.
LET THE BANKS FAIL!
Failure is a necessary cmoponent of any free market, because fear of failure is the source of risk-aversion. Otherwise we'd all be going after get-rich-quick schemes all the time: if they work, we're rich; if they don't, well, the government bails us out.
Eventually, everyone's poor.
If Paulson, Buffet, Kramer, Greenspan are all right and the economy goes to hell in a hand-basket, does anyone believe they will turn to the republicans for help. HELLO!
I can't believe the republicans are gonna take this risk.
McCain suspended his campaign to try and convince house republicans to support the bill.
The large majority of house GOP rejected the deal.
Some leadership?
I am actually going to guess that this will effect the polls negatively for both candidates, but for McCain more so. People's generally sour mood might make them cynical towards any politician, but Obama's "lack of experience" helps him here.
I also find it amusing that the CNN quickpoll with a few hundred thousand votes in was 57 / 43 against the bill until the Dow dropped 700 points. It is now sitting at 54 / 46 against and slowly moving towards 50 / 50.
Intrade is going nuts
I am guessing that tracking polls might go down to somewhere in the vicinity of O-44 M-36. Just a guess.
It's interesting because my Congressman is on that list. And he lost my vote today. I think Nate was right and people weren't as opposed to this bailout as it seemed. I suspect there will be some backlash next month.
"If there is one line that is going to decide this lesson it is this 'The fundamentals of the economy are strong.'"
The worst part of that is, the fundamentals of your economy are strong. They're not as strong as they were before Clinton over-regulated banks, Sarbanes-Oxley hamstrung corporations, and Bush decided to impede trade at the commanding heights of the economy (that steel tariff was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen).
I'm being totally non-partisan, here. I don't have a dog in the show - I'm Canadian. But there's a reason Germany hasn't created a private-sector job in 20 years, and you're about to go down the same path.
If you want to let Canada be the business centre of North America, by all means go ahead, but I'm being a good friend and telling you you're being an idiot.
ira, your sort of ignorance is the whole issue here. This is not a bank only problem. It affects every corporate balance sheet in the country. Companies thought they were insured and hedged because they bought swaps. Corporate balance sheets are completely exposed. Any company that isn't generating massive cash flow is going to be in a world of hurt. This means most retailers are going to suffer, because many of them have to engage in factoring to improve their cash flow.
New PPP NC. Obama takes lead, 47-45. Dole also in trouble...
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/obama-takes-lead-in-north-carolina.html
Sorry if it's already been mentioned.
But it's all sitting on over-valued real estate. Those prices need to correct, and it's not going to happen if the government props everyone up.
Bill P- do you have a real argument, or just non sequitors? Find me an economist who doesn't believe the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression (or made it "Great"), and I will show you a terrible economist who doesn't know what he's talking about.
You want mythology? That the New Deal "saved us" from the Depression is as close as you're going to get.
So who is going to bail me out?
This system sucks, I wonder if we could have a got a bill last week before McCan't road in on his white horse and completely fucked it up!
The bill was a bitter pill -- the public doesn't like it, but we know we have to swallow
McCain's numbers plummet (along with my 401k!)
Of course retailers are going to suffer. Everyone's going to suffer - in the SHORT TERM. A bailout like this one will cushion this initial blow, but extend the suffering going forward.
You should want market corrections to happen as quickly as possible. The falling DOW created a lot of bargains today. This is good news for anyone with money to spend (and the FDIC ensures that a lot of people still do).
Excuse me, don't Dems have a majority? They all could have passed the bill... Am I wrong? I know and understand needing unity/bipartisan/blah blah... but if it's that fucking dire... then come the fuck on.
I want to hear Palin talk about shorts and the Finance committee, I can't wait!
Hey Pete Kent you really don`t believe your BS do you. The McCain campaign may as well fold, he may be lucky enough to get about 175
electoral votes, if that.
Say hello to President Barack Hussen Obama!
the Bill will pass tomorrow, relax everybody.
Well, lets just postpone the debates to save gas and have the election now, this baby is OVER!
The economists I know have mostly given up on politics because they know the people don't understand complex arguments.
I even know one who advocates not voting because the marginal benefit it provides you is so small. And he's right.
When through this in the 80's thanks to Reagan. Now have to go through probably a worse recession thanks to Bush and the GOP.
Too stupid to run a country.
Per PPP, Obama 47-McCain 45 in NC.
Intrade is going nuts, Obama up 4 M down 3.6
PPP - NC
47-45 Obama
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_929.pdf
john peterson -
And back to Newt Gingrich University for you too. Conservative mythology holds that unfettered free markets are the solution to all our problems. It's a naive viewpoint that is proven wrong time and time again, yet the pathetic Republic party keeps clinging to it.
The New Deal put people to work and helped open up the West. You want to say it was all WWII? Great. That was FDR's doing as well - the Republic party didn't want anything to do with it until after Pearl Harbor, and even then the pathetic Republic party accused FDR of allowing it to happen so we could get involved.
I'm happy to discuss this further with you after you study up a bit. Until then...you are dismissed.
NC_voter and others who are saying that the House made the wrong decision:
Why?
Why would it be a good idea to give a huge amount of money from the federal government to a class of financial agents who have shown themselves to be utterly incompetent?
This obscene bailout plan is not the only conceivable solution to the impending economic crisis, yet the Bush administration and the leadership of both parties in Congress are making it out to seem like it is.
Chad:
Who's whining now? You should have read the fine print when you chose to put your money into the stock market. There's no guaranteed return on your investment. You're just like these finance guys who are begging the feds for a bailout after spending the past 10 years making ridiculously risky investments and pretending as if there was no risk at all.
Hope people RECALL that I called this a WEEK ago, that the HOUSE REPUBS would not support this, PURELY for partisan POLITICAL reasons!
MORE than 2/3 of the House REPUBS voted AGAINST the BUSH/Paulson plan, their OWN PARTY"S plan!
Even though about 60% of the Democrats tried to help the Repub plan and a Repub President!!
The HOUSE REPUBS destroyed this JUST so they could say they are opposed to a bailout AND run as ANTI-BUSH Repubs!!
This is CRAZY and the HOUSE REPUBS Are crazy!
"Conservative mythology holds that unfettered free markets are the solution to all our problems. It's a naive viewpoint that is proven wrong time and time again,"
You show me any example of market failure and I can point to the government intervention that made it happen.
Markets don't fail. They can't.
McCain has timed his new polulism perfectly. Ever since the RNC we came out with his "Fight" speech he has been railing against the entrenched interests. Obama half-heartedly through his lot in with Bush and his corrupt cronies Dodd and Frank and is looking weak and tarnished on this.
Worse things are going to appear so bad that he will become unaccetably risky.
I think we have reached a turning point on the economy.
Sarah said...
It's interesting because my Congressman is on that list. And he lost my vote today. I think Nate was right and people weren't as opposed to this bailout as it seemed. I suspect there will be some backlash next month.
Who's your congressman? Republican or Democrat?
Dow down 6% (down about 660 points), Nasdaq down 9% (down just shy of 200 points)
Holy SHIT!
@quantman -
I actually do remember someone posting that prediction. I went and pulled my money out of stocks shortly after. I figured the upside of the bill passing wasn't worth the risk of the downside.
I owe you a BIG thanks!
Markets don't fail. They can't.
Wow. I mean, just wow.
I think we have reached a turning point on the economy.
Kind of like how you thought Palin was a turning point in the election?
You're right about the war, though. That was all FDR, and he deserves credit for that.
But just because he did something right doesn't mean everything he did was good.
This is the same mistake people make with Hitler. Sure - terrible guy - did some really bad stuff. But that doesn't mean everything he did was bad - each item should be judged separately.
I think that what will happen in the polls is another shocking day for McCain. Some of the trackers might edge closer to a 10 point lead for Obama.
I think Bush should take a page out of FDRs book, and declare the next 2 or 3 days bank holidays, and get a bailout deal, or at least a reconfidence deal sorted in the mean time.
And Ira, sure the New Deal may not have fixed the economy, but the New Deal was never soloely an economic move, it was as much a psychological and political move, to reinstate confidence. (most historians, economic or otherwise, I believe would agree with that)
Markets can't fail because the actors in them (people) behave selfishly (all people behave selfishly - all of the time). As such, they won't take unreasonable risks (like lending a bunch of money to people who won't ever pay it back) unless there's some other incentive encouraging them to do so.
european futures are crashing losing 10%
Maybe if John Mccain had actually been working on getting votes instead of going on double dates with the Liebermans this wouldn't have happened.
At least McCain tried to shape this bill into a form that would be acceptable to Main Street. Obama just went along with his leadership and failed to recognize that there was no compromise. I think Mccain knew it, but no one could call the bluff or be seen as preciptating the vote against.
Perhaps now sanity will prevail and a compromise that protects the people instead of Chris Dodd's and Chuck Schumer's bid on Wall St. will be reached.
It is no coincidence that the states with the most to lose are in Democrat hands.
The Dems are the party of the monied interests now.
The latest North Carolina poll seems like a big deal. It confirms Ramussen's most recent poll showing Obama +2. Now the 3 most recent polls (the only 3 after the GOP bounce), show Obama +2, Obama +2, and TIED. Obama's barely winning North Carolina, folks. That means he's winning Virginia.
Every day is opposite day in Petey Kent's Wacky World.
Wheeeeeeeeee!!!
I'll just kick back and wait for someone to name any successful nation that has followed the 100% unregulated free market path to prosperity.
*waiting*
"Markets don't fail. They can't."
Utterly and completely delusional. Evidence of what happens to people intellectually when they completely by into an ideology that is, at best, an imperfect map of the world.
Markets can't fail if people act perfectly rationally and have perfect information. Even pure-market dogmatists argue that.
PROFILES IN COURAGE
AZ-5 Mitchell D NAY
AZ-8 Giffords D NAY
IN-9 Hill D NAY
KS-2 Boyda D NAY
KY-3 Yarmuth D NAY
LA-6 Cazayoux D NAY
MS-1 Childers D NAY
NH-1 Shea-Porter D NAY
NY-20 Gillibrand D NAY
PA-4 Altmire D NAY
PA-10 Carney D NAY
TX-22 Lampson D NAY
WI-8 Kagen D NAY
They'd rather lose an election then a country. Consign them to the Joe Lieberman traitor heap.
petekent-
You know damn well McCain went in and grandstanded. He said he needed to be in Washington and suspend his campaign - it took ina day plus to get their and some speeches, and the ads he says he pulled sure kept running in PA.
McCain made this bill political, McCain grandstanded, McCain raised the visibility of the bailout so the public reacted. This is one man's fault - JOHN MCCAIN!!!!
North Carolina, the banking HQ of the USA will go Obama now. I would LOVE to see a poll of this bailout plan in NC only. THere will be pain in NC, and even if something passes tomorrow and the markets get repaired a little, it won't matter, republicans derailed this bill and McCains signature all over it.
i imagine the polls will reflect the disaster and people will now support the bill in polls, and it will be passed tomorrow, maybe with a couple of tweaks to make it more appetible, mostly with dems votes.
if so, the dems will be able to pull the "we did it for the good of the country" card easily and credibly, and the McCain leadership argument will be shot.
my 2c
McCain is tanking on intrade down below 39%.
Some idiot was on a few weeks back rabbiting on about how wonderful it was to be buying cheap 'Cainer.
I hope they are enjoying it, because its just become the political equivalent of a subprime mortgage.
Whoops. Joe Biden got the best of me.
They'd rather lose a country than an election.
Good Lord Dow 689points down.
Explain the 19029 Wall Street Crash then Ira, how did the Laissez Faire, total deregulation governments of the 1920s cause that? Marlets fail when there is insufficient regulation.
Oh and by the way Ira, as a Historian, I totally disagree. The first judgement on someone should be as a totallity. You can then begin to deconstruct that, but for instance in Hitler's case, any good is cancelled out by the bad.
pygmy_owl said...
We're fucked.
Couldn't agree more ... These dumb fucking congressmen just cost us 8% in economic value just to see what happens. When middle america stops getting loans and businesses close, we will see what Jim Cramer was talking about... 20% unemployment and a worldwide depression.
Oh, here's Fred at 258.
Fred was actully hoping for this yesterday. He said it was okay if the markets took a bath as long as the reps paid the price.
I think Obama and the dems are already seeing which way the people are on this flawed legislation that they tried to ram down our throats.
Without Mccain this thing would have been even more of a disaster -- at least he tried to inject sanity into it, recognizing that the emperor had no clothes.
the real target here should be harry reid and his minions who shouted down McCain.
"Bonerman, Blunt and Cantor have been embarassing. Do you suppose McCain and Palin have inspired them?"
Can't speak for the other two, but Cantor was vetted for VP by the McCain campaign, so maybe this is the second time his feelings were hurt lately. Now he can look forward to 2012 -- the little maverick!
McCain is going below 40 pts this week. He is badly damaged by this. People only care about their money and this kind of thing is killing their bottom lines. Govt is a steward at times like this. Govt is not some defender of an abstraction of Capitalism...those are things for Comic Books and Adam Smith and the History Channel.
Jesus. The Repubs are finished. The Filibuster-Proof Majority is Senate is Coming.
stepper,
i'm confused. why did you select those particular ones out?
and isn't you comment "They'd rather lose an election then a country. " backwards?
guys
any new polls ?
I hope anyone's whose first reaction to this is to consider how the economic problems help their preferred party, or how they can blame the other party, is the first person whose job is lost in the recession.
Markets can't fail because the actors in them (people) behave selfishly (all people behave selfishly - all of the time). As such, they won't take unreasonable risks (like lending a bunch of money to people who won't ever pay it back) unless there's some other incentive encouraging them to do so.
I think this is overly simplified. I don't know much about economics, but this isn't completely true in reality because of a wide variety of systemic and cognitive reasons. People don't have perfect information, can't process information perfectly, etc. I think this is relevant particularly now, as most of the problems we are currently facing is because deritives and whatnot became too complex and too big, so people were unable to properly evaluate their value, and therefore couldn't properly caculate actual risk/reward. And because of systemic linkages, these problems weren't isolated and are causing the current mess.
Again, I know very little about economics, but I think that's roughly correct.
Interesting they won't be voting on this again until Thursday...
Same day as the VP debate...
hrmmmmmm
OK, IRA,
Spin the Great Depression. There was almost no regulation of markets then.
And remember Adam Smith's comment in Wealth Of Nations (It's been so long since I read it I can't identify the exact location, but I have seen it quoted elsewhere).
This is an approximation of the thought.
Businessmen never meet without contriving some conspiracy to the detriment of the Public.
Could someone explain to me why this is good for Obama? He did not even want to particpate in the crafitng of the bill and barely paid attention to the proceedings. His party rejected it too.
Why did Congress reject the bill? B/C the people don't like it. McCain was much more in touch with their feelings on this than O'Bush!
lol @ petekent
McCain's only hope was to for the thing to get passed, for the house repubs to give him all the credit for making them see the light, and for the nation's attention to turn directly away from the economy and onto the next subject. The exact opposite of all that happened.
"Railing against the entrenched interests." You mean he's railing against the McCain campaign?
Of course pure markets are self-correcting, but IMO the human/social costs of unregulated corrections are too great.
It's like the example someone gave recently: in a town of 100 people, food prices until the 20 poorest can't afford to eat. In a free market, this does not constitute a meaningful failure---the 20 people will soon starve and the shortage will disappear.
Ptekent-
You are spinning so hard I bet you are slowly screwing yourself into the ground.
Don't matter what you and the freepers think Petey, look at Intrade for the "free market" reaction. Repubs are to blame for the mess, the public knows it.
But keep spinning, it is fun to watch the pathetic nature of your posts.
People, don't bet on McCain's stock declining further because of today's market crash.
@ quantman
Same as jnorthrop. After listening to you a few weeks back regarding bank failures I think it was I did some shifting in my 401k and saved myself literally tens of thousands of dollars. Thanks to you my savings has stabilized.
Dylan:
Actually, you have no clue what I do and how I'm invested. I only have 43% of my money invested in common stock and I'm down about $85k TODAY.
I'm invested as smartly as you can be in a market like this. They put their own personal feelings before the Country.
770 point drop is RIDICULOUS!
Deregulation is Dead.
The Republican Brand is forever in the waste can. Bye. Bye.
I hope Obama can bring us out of the mess Bush and Cheney left behind.
What a bunch of fools. Read a history book. Go to school and read for Christ sake. Read a book.
Entirely predictable, and a good example of the Tragedy of the Commons.
Remember, they start VOTING in Ohio tomorrow! Absentees and one-stop registration voting.
I thought it was a good thing to be in line with the people and to oppose Bush. Why are you all saying otherwise today?
Thank goodness the House Republicans had some stones on this!
although I think the dems that voted nay on this are despicable, from a political standpoint its actually for the best, we don't want this bill associated with dems only.
And *what a surprise* the public's worm starts to turn towards this bill when they actually start to suffer any kind of pain.
niedda said...
Intrade is going nuts, Obama up 4 M down 3.6
Obama's not a piece of meat, ya know!
Huh? Intade down on McCain almost a full point SINCE MY FIRST POST on this thread, what, 20 minutes ago?
Intrade Market Odds McCain 38.5
can someone explainto me why they can't vote on it tomorrow?
@ira
Markets don't fail. They can't.
This is one of the dumbest things I've ever read. Seriously.
I understand why Democrats want to put blame for the bill not passing on Republicans. But why do Republicans want to blame Democrats for the bill not passing? A majority voted against it, apparently because the bill is so unpopular with their constituents. They should be taking credit for killing a bad bill if that's so. Unless of course, they believe the economy is going to tank and they want to avoid responsibility. But, that's outrageous! What kind of slime would knowlingly crap on the country based on some trivialities?
Wow, Ohio start tomorrow? That my friends is a beautiful thing!
Matthew said...
The Republican party isn't just in trouble, it has more or less ceased to exist. This vote separated the Republican party into two different ideological camps: the big business republicans, in the administration and who supported the bill; and the actual believers in deregulation and small government, who opposed the bill.
True; unfortunately same goes for DEM's real DEM"S vs big business DEM's
Problem is both parties don't have the intellect to run the country. Only at times when their seat is unsafe do congress members follow their constituency. At all other times they follow big business lobyists. That's what got us in this mess.
Hah---and everyone mocked so fiercely when I mentioned that China will be the world's prohibitive superpower in a decade or less.
So obvious. Democracy is dead.
Holy shit. Dow now down 777 (-6.98%).
NASDAG is down over 9%, S&P over 8.5%, DJ Wilshire over 8%, NYSE, over 8.5. All the others are in the -5-8% range. What a disastrous day.
don't panic
I think essentially its because of the Jewish Holiday.
"Could someone explain to me why this is good for Obama? "
Because people see dichotomies. By being a Republican, being on record as knowing little about the economy, and making the now-famous misstatement "the fundamentals of the economy are sound," McCain made himself the candidate that suffers when the economy suffers, fair or not.
don't panic-
First they were going to vote again today, them tomorrow, now Thursday.
I bet they do vote tomorrow. The repubs might want more cover and to let the market tank further before they join up.
@Don't Panic
I issued a correction but it looks like it got swallowed. Those were Dems up for re-election who didn't do the right thing. They didn't lead. They were lead. Afraid to make the right vote for fear of losing their soft cushy Washington jobs.
Cowards all.
(I don't excpect most Republicans to do the right thing. They are too busy waiting for the Rapture and this will bring it one step closer. But Dems are supposed to protect people. These people protected only themselves. Nancy and Steny are working them over right now for the re-vote.)
John Peterson said...
If all Democrats had voted for it, it would have passed.
End of story.
Spot on!
Also If all Republicans had voted for it, it would have passed.
Why do I feel like the only person who is wondering why so many democrats voted against it? Until I hear that answer, everything else is ideological ass-covering and bias showing.
@Ira
Markets can't fail because the actors in them (people) behave selfishly (all people behave selfishly - all of the time). As such, they won't take unreasonable risks (like lending a bunch of money to people who won't ever pay it back) unless there's some other incentive encouraging them to do so.
wrong. These aren't people lending their own money, but people lending other peoples. It's a completely and utterly different ball game.
And even with lending their own money - loads of people are willing to risk in hope of reward.
Pelosi is toxic. Why can't she save her venom for AFTER the vote.
Clearly, what was called for today was a BIPARTISAN BILL; a demonstration that the children in congress can come together for the good of the country.
After her stunt today, she should step down as Speaker. What a bufoon!
"Hah---and everyone mocked so fiercely when I mentioned that China will be the world's prohibitive superpower in a decade or less.
"
China would kill to have our economic problems. The issues with their economy run much, much deeper.
DXD,puts, shorts making me money
YAY !
when the market goes up
i make money
when the market gets fu**ed
i make money
google(GOOG) down 11%
Exxon(XOM) down 8%
Petrochina(PTR) down 14%
$$$ :-) $$$
Does anyone think they will vote again on this bill?
You should include the Udall's they are both in competitive Senate races
I heard calls in the heartland were coming in 10,000 to one against this bill.
There will be plenty of political cover for McCain and the Repuclican Party. This was a political decision.
Who is going to howl? NY, NJ, CT, MA, CA: the big money centers. Those votes were lost to McCain, but he has just shored up IN, e.g.
They will not vote on this until Thursday. VP Debate day.
Yes I think the republicans look very very petty today. Especially since Barney Frank's soundbite was humorous, short and descriptive of what happened.
"when the market goes up
i make money
when the market gets fu**ed
i make money"
God, what a useless spammer you are. Try actually saying something intelligent for a change.
I can't believe the GOP has been reduced to blaming a speech by Nancy Pelosi for their behavior. If they think the average person is going to buy that...
Their economy does suck, and China's economy depends on ours.
any new polls ?
From this morning:
John McCain's presidential campaign claimed credit as Congress readied Monday to vote on an emergency economic package, but Democrats said the Republican's last-ditch intervention had been no help.
Mitt Romney, McCain's erstwhile rival for the Republican nomination, said the deal on a Wall Street bailout worth up to 700 billion dollars would never have happened without the Arizona senator.
Speaking on NBC television, the former Massachusetts governor said "this bill would not have been agreed to had it not been for John McCain."
"That doesn't mean that he's the only guy doing that. And there many people ... who have been critical to it," Romney said.
"But, you know, this is a bipartisan accomplishment, a bipartisan success. And if people want to get something done in Washington, they just watch John McCain," he said.
"He's been the guy whose name is at the top of major pieces of legislation for a long time."
Good God he's fucking screwed.
"Those votes were lost to McCain"
Pete, you are THE biggest fucking moron I have ever encountered on the blogosphere. Seriously. I have to wonder how you even figure out how to turn a computer on.
About the Jewish holidays: We're going to be unpopular, but tomorrow, the first day, is not optional for even the most minimally observant Jews. Same for next Thursday.
But that might actually be good news. The rest of Congress can meet quietly, and even the observant who can't show their fact on the Hill will certainly be carrying their Blackberries. I know I'll be online during the afternoon break.
PeteKent:
"I believe this was a singular act of courage on the part of the House to reject this flawed bill.
...
Obama has shown zero leadersip on this and only McCain had the courage to step up and say attention must be paid."
(chortle)
McCain showed leadership that... failed. Pre-vote release of claims of being personally responsible for getting the bill passed.
Kinda like pre-debate claims of winning the debate.
McCain needs to deal with that premature... um... celebration problem.
All reports indicate that he inserted himself into the effort, screwed up whatever was being worked up... and didn't add jack; people who head him couldn't figure out what he was talking about (perhaps he was channeling La Palin?). And in the end, after his extensive public posturing about going back to D.C. (so that he could phone it in from across town), his mighty efforts failed to produce a bill that his own fucking party could/would support.
Hoo-fucking-rah. Wheee! Yay, John!
Boy, that's some leadership. And he--by his own campaign's assertion--is responsible for that... success (passing the bill that didn't pass).
Maybe he ought to follow Obama's lead and let the folks who actually SIT on the relevant committees and have some specific expertise draft something that might work, instead of grandstanding.
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
Abraham Lincoln
Alas, poor John, we came to know him too well.
InkStain -
Agents don't need perfect information, but they need sufficient information. And they do need to behave rationally, but isn't the capactiy for rational thought what makes us human?
markymark,
and?
who cares? isn't this a teensy bit more relevant?
if it is the emergency that they claim it is (and it obviously is) who gives a puck if it is chrismas hannukah or the winter solstice, reps should get thier priorities straight and do what they are paid to do. gee.
Couldn't agree more ... These dumb fucking congressmen just cost us 8% in economic value just to see what happens. When middle america stops getting loans and businesses close, we will see what Jim Cramer was talking about... 20% unemployment and a worldwide depression.
it's theoretical money, not real.
Some form of bill will pass within 2-3 days I reckon and the markets will bounce.
However, I wouldn't buy - as I don't think they've reached their depths yet.
petekent: Why did Congress reject the bill? B/C the people don't like it.
Well, people thought Saddam was involved with 9/11. That doesn't mean he was.
Most people don't understand what's at stake here. One can argue whether we're worse or better off without the bailout (and most people who know anything about the situation say worse), but looking at "the people" for guidance on this one probably isn't going to yield much in the way of careful thought.
are the polling firms fu**ed too ?
"Find me an economist who doesn't believe the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression (or made it "Great"), and I will show you a terrible economist who doesn't know what he's talking about."
Try having a clue before spouting BS like this, John Peterson. Many economists like this one at the NY Fed branch and this one from Berkeley reject this view. Also, take a look at the Wikipedia entry, which cites a survey taken of economists, over half of whom disagree with the notion that the New Deal extended the Depression. Here is a link to the survey.
When you make silly statements you lose your credibility. If you want to believe that the New Deal prolonged the Depression, you are welcome to your view. You are not entitled to lie and claim that every credible economist agrees with you. Most do not.
"Good God he's fucking screwed."
Nah, he's not. He'll just flip flop and lie again. Why not? 40% of morons in the country haven't cared the last 1,000 times he's done it.
The House Republicans played political football and tried to make the bailout a "democrat" bill.
That way, they could reap the rewards from a passed bill while wailing against the "big government democrat bailout of fat cat wall street executives."
Republicans wanted to be free riders instead of leaders. Shame on them. This needs to be a bipartisan bill because both parties had a hand in this mess.
Republicans: "Party First"
soundlab -
Pelosi is a pure Democratic Machine politican. Her behavior is to be expected - everything behind party.
Right, and Obama didn't perform erratically when this news came out and engage in political opportunism like McCain. Obama made no statement about the economy at first, right during the time McCain said "the fundamentals of the economy are strong". Then Obama had a Press Conference with the Clinton fiscal team (about the only people who are actually effective in calming people's economic fears right now), then McCain pulled the "suspend the campaign" stunt, Obama quietly endorsed the plan but expressed his reservations, now the the mkt crash it looks like Obama was right. Score: Obama +10, McCain -10.
bad economy = Obama defeat
Obama is responsible for the market meltdown
McCain Landslide !!!
The problem with a deregulated market, as I see it, is that markets act on the advantage of those in the market, never mind about those on the outside. We will make whatever money we can, never mind what the long term effects of it is. I suppose in some ways the market of and by itself can't fail, its the deregulated humans how are running it that fail, I guess. But it amounts to the same thing, and the markets can't operate without the humans.
"And even with lending their own money - loads of people are willing to risk in hope of reward."
But they weigh that risk. And here they weren't doing that.
CNN POLLS COMING OUT ?
You guys need to stop whining.
This is just a mental recession.
...?
Barney Frank pwns GOP
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/29/frank-because-somebody-hu_n_130328.html
"Agents don't need perfect information, but they need sufficient information. And they do need to behave rationally, but isn't the capactiy for rational thought what makes us human?
"
No. In fact, human cognitive tendencies skew quite strictly away from pure rationality. We often act against our own self-interest based on emotion.
A perfectly free market can't have sufficient information, because the powerful actors will be able to control the information against the less powerful. Only government regulation can both encourage people to act rationally and make sure that sufficient information is disclosed, so that the market can work.
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