When the statewide presidential polls go into hibernation, so do polls for senate races, and so we do not have a whole lot of new data to look at. But what data we do have is reasonably friendly for the Democrats, pushing our forecast up from a net gain of 6.4 seats to a net gain of 6.6.
Three races have moved materially this week. North Carolina, where a Public Policy Polling has Democratic challenger Kay Hagan moving into a 3-point lead, pulling the race closer toward toss-up status. Minnesota, likewise, moves closer toward the toss-up category, with a Minnesota Public Radio poll putting Al Franken one point ahead. On the other side of the coin, Rasmussen again polled the Mississippi special election, and again showed Roger Wicker with a fairly comfortable (9-point) lead. That race looks to be moving away from the Democrats, although we could use another pollster in the field to take that race's temperature.
Could Sarah Palin's selection have a favorable effect for the Republicans on some of these red-state Senate races? I think that's possible; in North Carolina, for instance, it's a nice boon to Republicans to motivate conservative women to turn out. But, if the general effect of the Palin selection is to tend to polarize the electorate, the reverse could be true in a blue state like Minnesota.
9.02.2008
Senate Polling Weekly Update, 9/2
@ 6:42 PM
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Nate, I hate to go off-comment but I think you'll indulge me on this.
A public service announcement: If you don't like something a person like Nate who runs a blog writes, don't read it! Mr. Silver is allowed to write whatever the hell he wants, and readers have no entitlement or reasonable expectation of control over his content. We all are lucky enough to have someone of Nate's caliber writing for our betterment without any form of payment from us. He generates revenue from us being here, but our access to his work is free for readers, which allows him the leeway to post what he wants.
If you don't like something, deal with it. Don't whine on the blog that he's not talking about what you want- Nate has earned the right to write about what he chooses and the best you can do is let the market run his course by not adding your view counts to that.
This is exactly why this pick has been a disaster so far. Actually, it's only one reason. McCain is running a terrible campaign, and it's obvious to anyone who follows politics for a living. He's being crucified for picking a total novice.
You can argue that Obama is inexperienced (he is), but at least he was chosen by 18 million voters in the primary process. McCain just went off half-cocked and chose a complete nobody who is bringing him down with all her excess baggage.
Sure, the cultural conservatives are fired up! That has worked for us in the past. They were fired up in 2004 and we barely won then with a sitting president against a terrible candidate in Kerry. Anyone really think McCain (a weaker candidate than Bush in 2004) is going to pull it off this time against a much stronger candidate just because he picked Sarah Palin?. That's crazy! This reminds me of the Harriet Miers debacle.
No one's ever even heard of Palin. I don't care if she's a popular Governor. More people live in Knoxville, TN than live in the entire state of Alaska. He needs to drop her and pick Ridge or Romney. Hell, I'd even take Lieberman at this point. Sure, he'll look stupid for backtracking, but at least he'll be admitting his mistake. I think he's going to lose either way at this point.
Disagree, with editor, agree with Nate. Sarah Palin was probably the best pick McCain could have made for GOTV in red states. All the more so if the Democrats are picking on her.
Won't help the top ticket much, but it might save some of the Senate seats.
Agree with Nate AND editor. Imagine Palin energizes the right and alienates the left, which it seems agreed-upon she'll do. Look at the senate races. The only close race that Palin may swing will be Alaska. She's from there and quite popular (even the critics admit over 60%) but the race is pretty lopsided and Palin backing Stevens would hurt her "reform the corrupt" persona. On the other hand, of the four races listed as "leans GOP" two of them are in blue states (OR and MN) and Palin could very well lose those two for Coleman and Smith. By my count Palin loses them two senate seats and may, possibly, in unlikely circumstances, gain them one.
Matthew -
It does depend on intent, but I have got to think the old fart McCain is not just going through the motions. He still thinks this VP pick will help. All the pro's say he is nuts, and it sure looks like she was not well vetted, but...I still think the republican lies are going to believed. We need the MSM to really vet this lady.
Palin CNBC being replayed on CNBC. She is lying about how much oil we have, but she gave a good interview (this is the famous, what does a VP do interview).
Here in Oregon Merkley and the Democratic Party have been running about three unopposed weeks worth of attack ads, and Smith's prior ad was really weak. Smith just came on the air again with a reply.
If Merkley isn't appeciably close by the next poll, it will take a scandal to beat Smith. Given that we vote by mail, I think there will be at most a samll coattail effect from Obama.
Vegans are fishy.
Judas: I hate to agree but do. Also an Oregonian. Also seen bunches of ads for Merkeley. If he's still losing, he's lost.... I wish Novick had won the primary. I think he would have had a good shot.
I can tell you that John McCain's reckless VP pick turned me from an Obama/Coleman voter into an Obama/Franken voter.
Well, Democrats need to win with Franken AND Hagan; Merkley AND Musgrove, and then welcome an aimless Joe Lieberman back into the party after an eventual McCain defeat. The only other GOP candidate who might get hurt by Palin is Maine Senator Collins, not a likely race to flip. Hmm, difficult...Obama needs a popular-vote landslie to get the 60 seats.
Btw, having just seen Gov. Jindal on CNN... he will be a STRONG candidate when he runs for president. His voice makes him sound really competent.... I guess he´ll run in 2016 when he´s still just 45 years old, but with a massive load of experience. I hope he keeps religion and government apart, as a catholic he might actually be able to pull it off within the Republican Party.
There goes Mule Rider, giving the lie to his statement that he wasn't coming back to post on this site.
Oh well, Nate's ad revenues probably went up from all the hits that Mule Rider creates.
I'm happy to see a poll that has Frankin doing better in MN. Would someone please tell me, is Coleman the mayor of St. Paul related to Sen. Coleman?
I think the the Franco-like police actions should energies Frankin's base. MN cops acting like 60's MS riot cops.
Democracy Now! is owed a big apology. Will they get it from this Mayor Coleman?
Mule, who is Al Franken?
I think Lieberman resigns his senate seat relatively soon after the election. If McCain wins he's got a cabinet post; If Obama wins and the Dems aren't very close to 60, he'll get stripped of his seniority and committee and sub-committee chairmanships. That is, unless he does someething like crawling on his knees before the leasership. Read the description of the Philospher Benedict (Baruch in Hebrew)Spinoza's reacceptence by the Amsterdam Jewish community after having been placed in Cherem (the equivalent of excommunication) - for his non-traditional views.
I am sure there are accounts posted on the web. He really has to debase himself.
Comparing Lieberman to Baruch Spinoza seems really generous to Lieberman...
But more relevantly: what if the dems are close to that treasured 60? Then the party may need to grovel for Lieberman
What planet does Pat Buchanan live on? Is it ours?
My nutball righty friends still like this pick, so we need to keep up the negative drumbeat on her!
Pat Buchanan said:
"McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his co-pilot was the biggest gamble in presidential history. As of now, it is paying off, big-time.
The sensational selection in Dayton, Ohio, stepped all over the big story from Denver – Barack Obama's powerful address to 85,000 cheering folks in Mile High Stadium, and 35 million nationally, a speech that vaulted him from a 2-point deficit early in the week to an 8-point margin. Barack had never before reached 49 percent against McCain.
As the Democrats were being rudely stepped on, however, Palin ignited an explosion of enthusiasm among conservatives, evangelicals, traditional Catholics, gun owners and Right to Lifers not seen in decades."
Brad: Good lord. Can we have one comments threat NOT all about Palin? Aren't there like 7 earlier posts about Palin you could have put that comment on?
Answer the question, wanker.
I live in between Princeton and Trenton, and it's sometimes hard to remember if I'm watching NYC tv or Philly TV, but on CNN they just showed a McCain ad tearing into the Democrats (Chuck Shumer was in it I guess because of NYC) and it was most decidely not McCain-Palin, just McCain. Is his VP only a VP for Red States? Is he going to say that Tom Ridge is his Northeast VP and Sarah Palin is his Southern/Western VP? Or his going to ignore her like a first wife?
Fuck Lieberman.
Kissing that toad's ass would be worse than just living with less than 60.
The Dems in Congress need to grow a spine for once.
Sure Russeell, sorry. But, aren't those comments above about how Palin affects the Senate races? Just checking.
If Franken wins it will be a pretty shocking comeback as he was down early and had to focus on his own nomination for awhile. Additionally, the ads against him have been well done.
Two things about the Senate Races. The GOP is not spending money in North Carolina on the Prez race as much to help McCain as to help Dole I bet. Losing this seat would be devastating for them. Maybe they think it could potentially be a tipping point state and if Dole loses than Obama could ride coattails to close the gap along with pushing up the African-American vote and pull a stunner. I'd be really surprised if the state is a deciding factor in the pres election. They seem to be worried about Dole.
As for Begich's lead, I'd say he could have a problem. Could you imagine if Ted Stevens' is reelected because a small red state has one of their own in the running for VP. I'd still bet Begich is not as sure a thing as the polls suggest.
New Obama Ad for the RNC
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/09/new-obama-ad-for-the-rnc.html
Sounds like a bad joke.
How is Dole only up 3.9% ?
I have never seen this looked at, is there a convention bounce in Seante races. I wouldn't think so, but I cannot believe some of the shifts are real.
Brad: You're right. Sorry for snapping. Backlash from hearing about nothing but Palin for the last several days, I guess I just like comments that relate to the main post. Plus I (expect more from you: You're clever.
I'll also be shocked if Franken wins. I'm as left as they get (if we still had a serious socialist party, I'd be in it). It's not the guy's views that bother me, it's his approach to politics. That said, if Franken gets us the 60th seat, all's forgiven.
Ohio looks like an Obama landslide now. +0.7!!
Stavens cannot win, can he? I mean that would be crazy, he is a true crook, and his constituents know it.
I don't know if Stevens can be helped by Palin. Like I said, she's made her reputation by claiming to clean up the corrupt politics of Alaska, and Stevens is the best symbol of that corruption. She can't endorse him.
Plus, as far as I can tell, the Alaska republican establishment doesn't LIKE Palin.
Still, anything's possible. Alaska's a small state, and it might not take much more than an upswing in generic republican voting to win Steven the seat.
Russell - Palin had a Stevens ad on her website right up until she got picked.
Two questions now:
Is there a convention bounce in Senate races?
How much will Obama's ground game spill over to the Senate races?
I am curious about the obvious senate and house races Palin might affect - Alaska.
Will Alaska voters deem one of their own is being picked on and vote across the board GOP? I am curious what you think about that.
I thought it might be interesting to look at the polling of the most competitive senate races in 2006 at this same time of year for comparison purposes. All numbers are from RCP 2006 Senate Poll Averages, with 9/1/06 poll standing shown first followed by actual election result:
AZ: Kyl +15/Kyl +10
CT: Lieberman +5/Lieberman +10
MD: Cardin +7/Cardin +10
MI: Stabenow +11/Stabenow +15
MN: Klobuchar +8/Klobuchar 20
MO: Talent +4/McCaskill +2
MT: Tester +3/Tester +1
NJ: Even/Menendez +9
OH: Brown +6/Brown +12
PA: Casey +8/Casey 17
RI: Even/Whitehouse +7
TN: Corker +9/Corker +3
VA: Allen +8/Webb +0
WA: Cantwell +9/Cantwell 17
There seemed to have been a general shift towards the Democrats in 2006 after 9/1 of around 6-7 points, with some fluctuations within individual races. However, massive shifts seem rather rare. The biggest move was Klubochar +12 and the biggest lead overcome was Webb, who made up 8 points to barely beat Allen (perhaps some of this was still be felt after effects of Allen's macaca moment, which happened on 8/11).
Nothing shocking in these numbers. But, I was a little surprised at their consistency with actual results, especially if you consider the across the board move toward Democrats which seems to have occurred. Thus, 2006 history suggest that anyone currently down by around double digits is an extremely long shot to make up the difference, barring some massive national shift in opinion.
Nate is going to kick your butt, Mule, whoever wins.
If you help elect Al Franken, you'll get exactly what you deserve. God bless a democracy.
His VP pick makes it clear that John McCain, as the new leader of the GOP, has absolutely no interest in voters like me.
Incentives should be offered for any sitting GOP member of congress to change party now before the post-election rush.
Has anyone else ever seen Al Franken and Tom Davis' political satire skit "Pete Tagliani vs Winfield Adcock" from SNL's first or second season? Funny as hell.
Mo-
I know nothing of Alaska but, this is the internet.
1) Doesn'tthe repub establishment up there hate her
2) They are running a crook, soon to be a felon
If she does help, Alaskans are just stupid - but then again, they have chosen to live part of the year in complete darkness and bitter cold, so...
This Chrome thing works OK. I'm shocked.
anothermike-
Lets hope that take home for the presidential this year to.
Barring anything terrible, I can't see folks moving to the generic repub this year from here in, so lets hope the move dems hold true again, it just might.
Don't feed the troll, maybe he will wither and starve to death from loss of attention.
I never was a good speller but I can walk and chew gum at the same time. Mule Rider, I thought you were going away but I will respond one last time and wish you well in your new life. Yes, we will finally get what we deserve if Al Franken is elected. Al Franken will be one more vote closer to 60 and progress for we of the hoi polloi. The closer you get to 60 the more heat you can put on Senators like Snowe and Collins, Grassley and Gregg. Are they going to hold on tight with the party of Pat Roberts, and Inhofe no matter what is proposed, or are they going to become the renewed reasonable wing of the republican party and help bring some decent change to a vote? One direction is extinction, the other direction is long term survival.
PS With Al Franken we get some decent humor, with Mule Rider we have an imploding intellect. We are still waiting for the cyber-suicide he promised earlier today. Reincarnate as a respectable life form.
And to VC, I am your humble servant, the 18 millionth panderer.
Hmmm, it would sure be a good fight. I'm booking tickets for it. Troll or no troll.
Mule Rider is a liar and a promise breaker.
mule goo, surely.
go
Judas_Priest mentioned the possibility of a reverse coattails, especially in states like Oregon. As an Oregonian, I have thought of this for a long time.
I think that there is a chance that the closer McCain gets to winning, especially if he uses anything close to smear tactics, the less chance Smith will have in Oregon. After Bush, many Oregonians
, even suburban moderates who otherwise might be amiable to the Republican party, associate the party with being purposefully ignorant and bellicose. (Somewhat like the myspace page of the redneck Levi: "Mess with me and I will fuck you up", or words to that effect). It is only because Smith has painted himself as a sensitive, intelligent person that he is hanging on in Oregon, He has gone as far as to run ads with quotes from Barack Obama about how they got along in the senate.
But if Smith is seen as being the supporter of a bullying, redneck Republican party...Oregon voters will turn against him.
I am imagine the situation is much the same in Minnesota, a state with very similar politics to Oregon.
If nothing else, the one thing that Obama has gotten out of the Democratic Convention, it's that he regained his coattail mojo.
If all things remain relatively hunky dory, every Democratic senate candidate will be clamoring for Obama to make campaign appearances with them. Al Franken, in particular.
Mule: Go
Sto.
go
I thought internetia was a free country.
And again, more talk about national polls, Sarah Palin and senate races...but where oh where are my Colorado and Ohio polls?
I am waiting on the edge of my seat!
Even if Lieberman were to end up being the 60th senate seat the Dems need, I don't think the Dems would need to do too much to get him back into their camp. His re-election is four years away, but he's already looking like toast. Being a holdout to the Dems having 60 seats will ensure the end of his career.
I hope Lieberman's career is over one way or another anyhow.
And 538 should support a diverse range of views,and styles of commenting. So I say: stay.
go
Matthew-
I thinkthat is an OK analysis, but running ads tying himself should cushion him from McCan't at least a bit.
MN is a weird state, they have by the the highest voter trunout in the country "(80%) and they pay attenetion so I wouldn't be surprised if the cottails are pretty small there, but for that ground game. I still have the ground game question posted above about senate races, NATE!
Matthew: I agree! With CO being McCain +1 the last poll I saw, I'm just dying to see what the convention did to it.
Assmole: I agree that we should get a diverse range of views. So if VAConservative had asked, I'd tell him to stay. But you're defending a guy whose first post on this thread was the letter "W" repeated ad nauseum.
Lieberman has to come back to the dems to get re-elected, but does he care? If was running around the world with repub candidate he pretty clearly is not representing HIS constituency.
But if mule rider leaves, we'll miss his Republican insights!
Matthew said...
And again, more talk about national polls, Sarah Palin and senate races...but where oh where are my Colorado and Ohio polls?
I am waiting on the edge of my seat!
I think you're gonna be waiting a while on those. Possibly a week or more. Conventions are usually a dead period for state polls.
Hell, I'd imagine since the two conventions are back-to-back with Labor Day in the middle, pollsters probably took some long and relaxing vacations. With so many battleground states this cycle, being a pollster this fall will be grueling.
Brad: Lieberman didn't come to the Dems to get re-elected in 2006. He won as an indipendent. His party was "Connecticut for Lieberman." Why would he have to come back to them this time?
Analysis:
Gore tied Bush (won popular, lost electoral college) because Gore had the advantage on who would make a better president and Bush on who you'd want to have a beer with (charisma). Cancel each other out and you get a tie. This time Obama beats McCain on both fronts. Not with everybody of course, but with enough to where this thing shouldn't end up being close.
Because the independents win in CT because CT is so different. I guess he could win, but I sure cannot see it happening. He lost the dem primary last round, and has not made many friends. If he is seen as eviscerated in the Senate and a conservative McAiniac (who wouldn't run those ads tying him to McCan't's coming loss) I just can't see it happening unless he can sell a chairmanship and some graft.
But I am often wrong, damn crappy place this world is.
Eric: Much as I like your conclusion, that's hardly analysis. In fact, it amounts to "I'd rather have beer with Obama plus he'd totally be a better president."
This is a different match than between Gore and Bush. With that the choice was between two people who were, at the time, both depicted as having somewhat absent personalities. Jokes about the two parties being the same were rampant. This election is not that election.
MS-B.
Of the competitive races, I am most dubious about the Democrats chances in MS-B. If Cochran is going to win MS-A by 30 points, are there really going to be that many ticket splitters for the same job to give Musgrove the win? Has that ever happened? I'm rooting for Musgrove, but I don't like his chances.
Russell -
Connecticut is a more Democrat/Independent state than it is Republican. In 2006, the Republicans primarily attacked Ned Lamont leaving enough middle ground for Lieberman to win with a coalition of his own ardent backers and Republican voters, defeating Lamont 49%-39%.
But since then, Lieberman's outright shift to a more Republican agenda has hurt his approval ratings within his state. From a July Quinnipiac poll (2 months ago):
Sen. Joseph Lieberman gets a 45 - 43 percent approval, down from 52 - 35 percent March 27 and his lowest score ever.
"Sen. Lieberman's approval rating has dropped below 50 percent for the first time in 14 years of polling, with nearly two-thirds of Democrats giving him low marks, probably because he is campaigning for Sen. John McCain," Dr. Schwartz said.
Complete article on the poll:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1189
Thanks for your comments about the vibe in Oregon. What I like about this site are the polls and the local news from around the country. Thanks for saying Oregon and Minnesota are similar. Of the 20 states for Kerry, OR was 15th and MN 17th most supportive. Would everyone please now compare OR to MN and not to Washington? We are lead by women in Washington, 2 senators and the governor, and a woman this year is going to flip the eastside of the Puget Sound metro and make us 7 good votes out of the 9 we have in the house. Democrat presidential candidates don’t squeak across the line in Washington, they win comfortably and let the party spend money elsewhere. Just because you live next to a Duck, this does not mean you waddle and quack like a Duck. And don’t bring up the false god of football. We’ve been there, done that in the dogfather era of Don James, now we are over that. Crew is the only colligate sport that matters. From Seattle, where Portland looks to know what is next.
Russell said...
Eric: Much as I like your conclusion, that's hardly analysis. In fact, it amounts to "I'd rather have beer with Obama plus he'd totally be a better president."
True enough. My point is part of the reason the Dems are excited about their choice and the GOP is luke warm is they don't particularly like McCain. Bush wasn't boring, he just didn't come across as a genius. People liked him. Gore did not have a winning personality.
McCain is where he is today because of is wife's beer money and his BS about 5 1/2 yrs in the "Hanoi Hilton" means I'm a patriot. Vote for me. Got him into Congress and kept him there. He offers very little other thna that he wishes he was Ronald Reagan. He ain't.
I will admit Obama, who has lots of charisma and appears would be a better leader is probably somewhat similar to Kennedy in 1960, who would've lost if he didn't get Texas and wouldn't have if he hadn't picked LBJ. So, it's not a no-brainer that this country will nail it. But, yes I'd rather have a beer with Obama and yes I'd rather him make decisions that effect all of our lives.
Obama is a poker player, McCain likes craps. I play both. No way I want the craps guy making decisions that effect everybody. Though it will not be a factor in this race, I have to say I don't trust McCain's judgment. Look at who he chose for his VP. Absurd pick. About 20 better choices. It's almost like okay if I can't have who I want (Lieberman or Ridge), then take a hike.
borderpeak:
I didn't quite understand all of that post, but as for Oregon following Seattle...
How is the light rail line coming for you?
2004 George W. Bush and Karl Rove's Southern Strategy helped Republican Southern candidates in Florida- Mel Martinez,North Carolina-Richard Burr,and Louisiana- David Vitter-get over 50% avoiding a runnoff and help Murkowski win in Alaska and Thune unseat Daschle in South Dakota.
In 2008- Obama-Biden's coattails will help Merkley-OR ,Franken-MN,and Hagan-NC. Warner-VA,the Udalls(NM and CO),Begich-AK,and Shaheen-NH.
Is Palin going to help or hurt Risch(ID) and Inhofe(OK).
Borderpeak, I understand what you're aiming at, but as a Reedie, I could give a rat's patoot about football. Neither my high school nor my undergrad had football. My graduate work was done at an institution that had a mediocre undergrad football team. I do not care.
Reed used to have football, but the story of the demise of the Reed football program in the early 1960's after a halftime show in poor taste at a game against Multnomah School of the Bible doesn't belong here.
Tito: Thanks! I'm sold. Lamont's loss could very well be a fluke.
Come to think of it, I'm not even sure Penn football was really mediocre at the time. I just assumed it was because no one paid attention to it that I knew of.
Is Palin going to help or hurt Risch(ID) and Inhofe(OK).
Palin seems very popular with the Evangelical base. Lots and lots of Evangelicals in Oklahoma. I doubt it will be much of an effect, but she might marginally increase Evangelical turnout. This would hurt Rice.
Palin also seems to fit well with Libertarian westerners, especially culturally. Perhaps some slight help for republicans in Idaho as well.
Personally, I don't think we have much of a chance in either of those races, with or without Palin. Of the Likely Republican races listed by Nate, Maine seems far and away the most likely to become competitive. I'd even rank Texas, Georgia, and Kentucky as more likely to become competitive than either Oklahoma or Idaho. One thing those two have going for them however, is that it's cheap to advertise and the DSCC could easily saturate the airwaves if the races become competitive.
Matthew,
Its probably too late, but to respond, after 39 years since first proposed it is 1/2 mile from the airport. Thanks for asking.
Whats not to understand about my post? Talking politics only, Oregon is not doing as good a job for the country as Washington. To redeem themselves the ducks need to bounce the ridculous Smith.
In all honesty, Portland is a wonderful city in so many ways that Seattle is not. Anyone thinking about moving to the northwest, Portland or the Oregon coast is the way to go, the quality of life is exceptional. The people are just a little bit qwakers. Now I will stop channeling MR.
Selenes Mom,
Again probably too late, but Reed College rocks. Leftist woman are absolutely the hottest and those were good old days. I've been with a woman from Evergreen since old John was in the POW camp. We had more fun during that war and we didn't kill in vain. Seattle rocked the WTO, is it too much to ask for Portland to bring down Smith? I know your tied at the hip to the east of the mountains ultra conservatives, as are we.
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