She's a hockey player. She’s a fourth-line hockey agitator, beloved by the home crowd, loathed by the opponents, injecting passion into both fan bases, the kind of home-team hero that no Stanley Cup winner goes without.
Once upon a time, I applied an NFL-replay mentality to hockey playoffs, holding on to outrages over missed calls, blatantly unfair officiating, double standards, and outright getting-away-with-stuff (which always led to an early spring exit for my beloved Blues). I wanted – and unreasonably expected – bad behavior to be proportionally punished.
And then several years ago I had an epiphany about the hockey playoffs – nobody is coming to save you. Initiators win, reactors lose. Expect adversity, because it's built in. The fourth-line, no-scoring-talent, pest agitators (or as we now call them, “energy guys”) have a specific job. Skate in, take a cheap shot, make it after the whistle. Make it against the rules. Stir something up. Put a wet glove in the other guy's face and rub it. Get the outrage flowing. Get the opponent not thinking about the game, get them thinking about your shenanigans. And what happens? The “victimized” team loses its composure, hitting back. The guy who hits second is always the guy who goes to the penalty box.
Watching Sarah Palin this week, and the reaction to her by both sides, and all the talk of hockey mommery, I realized that this is who she is. She skates into the corner, throws up an elbow, and the Democrats cry: “Foul!” Hey! She said Obama has never passed a major bill – this is an objective lie! Hey! She ridiculed community organizing the day after Service was the theme! Technically people should punish her by not voting for her over this infraction!
It’s whining, and whiners hit back second and go to the penalty box on top of it.
Sarah Palin is a person who by her own admission found out about the Iraq surge – the centerpiece of the McCain judgment argument – from television. Apologies to conservatives, but technically, objectively, inarguably, this alone makes her unqualified to be President. But we don’t live in that technical or objective world. Political campaigns – as distinct from policy and governance – are the NHL playoffs. It’s only about who survives the war of attrition to the finish line first. Is Brett Hull’s skate still in Dominik Hasek’s crease and was that same situation disallowed in every previous instance throughout that season? Yes, but so what? Dallas had a parade.
In the hockey analogy, Palin wouldn’t get within a thousand miles of an NHL All-Star Game because she’s not a scoring talent. She’s a role player, an emotion-rouser. Emotion messes with the chalkboard-drawn game plan and thus achieves a specific strategic objective. She can make game-changing agitation plays that rouse her home team and provoke the other side into counterattacks that – 100% of the time – end up punishing the team who hits back. Democrats would be smart to understand her as such, and I see a lot of reaction that doesn't seem to grasp what Palin is doing and the value she's providing. I see a lot of Democrats taking a lot of bait.
This applies more to Democratic surrogates than it does to the top-ticket duo. Joe Biden had the smart response yesterday – naming the behavior – expecting it, and then riding through without taking the bait: “It was about how well placed -- and boy she is good -- how a left jab can be stuck pretty nice. It’s about how Barack Obama is such a bad guy.”
And that’s all he says of Palin’s antics. Name the behavior, even praising the skill with which the agitation was attempted, and then back to focus. It's "the economy, stupid."
Finally – is the analogy complete? In the end a great hockey agitator who rouses both sides emotionally (and successfully gets the other team to lose focus) still needs the home team scoring talent to come through. Successful agitator Kris Draper of the Detroit Red Wings had the clutch Steve Yzerman for a lot of years. That worked. Detroit won Cups. They had parades.
Successful agitator Tyson Nash, when he was on my Blues, was stuck with the antithesis of playoff clutch, the easily thrown-off-his-game Keith Tkachuk. That didn’t work. No Cup. Even if Palin is successful in her task of agitation and distraction, which one is John McCain?
9.06.2008
Sarah Palin Is Not a Hockey Mom
@ 6:25 PM
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I will not be convinced that she is anything but the anchor that sends McPOW to the bottom. And not because she's trailer trash and unfit for the job. But because he showed the most cynicism and contempt for America by selecting her.
Go Wings.
This is just more proof that Nate is an Anti-American pinko...what real American knows so much about hockey? Why don't you go back to Canada with all the other socialists who hate America?
Outstanding post, Sean. This is what so many of us are missing about the pick. That's why the pick was made. That's the exact role she was picked to play and she'll do exactly that. And if we misread her role, we will suffer for it.
Sorry Sean,
I live in Washington State. I don't have a clue about hockey.
I agree with ealrier posts about Palin's effect on swing states. Assuming an extremely tight race, where the tipping point decides it here's my analysis:
It all comes down to COLORADO and NEVADA. If Obama flips either he wins, if he doesn't McCain wins.
In an election where the popular vote is as close as Gore/Bush or Kennedy/Nixon, I'm almost sure the only surefire flips for either side would be New Mexico and Iowa. Colorado and Nevada probably tossups. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan stay Blue. Florida, Virginia, Ohio, North Dakota, And Montana stay Red.
This sort of strategy is probably the least effective against "No Drama" Obama. He is pretty damn imperturbable.
Sean, that is a truly brilliant essay. One for the record books. I hope it gets the widespread circulation it deserves!
Moondancer, I agree that that is how it *should* be, and I think so does Sean. But it isn't that way because we are intelligent and informed and educated but tens of millions are not.
Sean is right, and I think the ticket itself knows that exactly. Ironically enough, consider that Obama himself used a sports metaphor in his response to her ridiculous speech: "I've been called worse on the basketball court." They should keep to the high road, and keep hammering on the economy.
I disagree about pointing out her record, though. It's not whining to point out factually that someone is lying. And if anyone thinks it's sexist for Obama to criticize her for earmarks and the Bridge to Nowhere, then THEY are being sexist.
And while all this is playing out, Sarah will be hiding in a cave in Alaska, while stuff like this floats around the net undermining her "hockey mom" image.
"Is Brett Hull’s skate still in Dominik Hasek’s crease and was that same situation disallowed in every previous instance throughout that season? Yes, but so what? Dallas had a parade."
Thanks for ruining my day. Next you'll be comparing the dems to a team losing four straight superbowls...
But really, you're giving her far to much credit. She's not an agitator, she read a speech prepared by an agitator. If she's not even prepared to answer reporters' questions, she's unprepared for any high office. That's all any democrat should have to say or should say.
Wow...that was the biggest piece of crap I've ever read....
I'd also conclued that the chance of a flip in Colorado and Nevada in a tied popular vote would be probably be about 50/50, but if I had to bet I'd say they'd stay Red. The reason I'd give Obama a slight advantage right now, all things being equal is I think he has a better chance of having a lead in the popular than McCain, 1 or 2% would make all the difference.
Oh come on Sean. You are really becoming a joke. Can you actually try to do some objective analysis. I don't expect you to completely hide your pro-Obama leanings, but at least try. She has thrown some elbows, and aroused emotions. But did you not hear the blatant negative attacks in Obama's speech.
"Apologies to conservatives, but technically, objectively, inarguably, this alone makes her unqualified to be President."
Well, I'll argue it. I would have preferred someone more experienced, perhaps Romney. But she has nearly the same experience as Obama, which most Americans recognize. You saw the polls.
Heard a funny joke today -- what's the difference between Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney?
Lipstick!
As Bill Clinton said in '92 -- it's the economy stupid. Obama has a plan (not a great one, but a plan) and McCain doesn't. Palin is a red-herring, a distraction. They are not keeping her away from the media because they fear what the pundits will ask her -- they are holding her away from public view like a rock star gets holed up in a hotel before a big show (yet his peeps leak to the public where he is) -- so people will keep talking about her, over and over again. Once she sits down with one reporter, it becomes the law of diminishing returns -- the second interview won't be nearly as intriguing.
The GOP is playing her up as an untouchable rock star (exactly what they portrayed Obama to be). But sooner or later, she will have to come out and show access to the media. She'll do just fine, thereby beating LOW EXPECTATIONS (a la, Bush Jr.).
Like I said, she's a red-herring to defer the voters away from thinking about the real issues -- the late mortgage payment, the late car payment, the sinking feeling in their stomach every time their boss walks by them in the office that he has their pink slip, their worries about the drop in the 401(k) values, how they've exhausted their savings just to buy food and gas.
I may be wrong -- but come ballot time on 11/4 -- people will vote their economic condition and not for some right-wing radical VP candidate dressed in sheep's clothing.
Ben: Reality has a liberal bias when John McCain decides to shirk his responsibilities to pick a VP with a clue.
If you want to argue it, start by explaining why she's afraid to hold a press conference.
By the way, Sean, your essay captures the essence of my long-term complaint with the Democratic Party: We are never on the offensive. We are always sitting there like Shana Alexander telling James J. Kilpatrick, "But Jack, that's not fair!"
The only was the Democrats will ever turn this around is to hit first.
Yeah, but who does the distraction help?
McCain's only chance is making this election about Barack Obama. All the onus of so-called celebrityhood and all the exaggerated media attention has been removed from Obama's shoulders and placed on Sarah Palin's during the last week. She has made Barack Obama seem more familiar and 'normal' to us, comparatively. All this time spent arguing about Sarah Palin is time spent not arguing about Barack Obama, and that is not good for the McCain campaign.
This post is brilliant. I am an avid hockey fan, and I understand exactly what you are getting at, and I agree. Palin is Claude Lemieux, Joe Biden needs to be Darren McCarty. Let Barack Obama score the goals, stay with the game plan. Hopefully John McCain is Peter Forsberg.
Love it.
Ironically, my favorite hockey blog did a post on politics today...weird.
I think the ticket itself knows that exactly. Ironically enough, consider that Obama himself used a sports metaphor in his response to her ridiculous speech: "I've been called worse on the basketball court." They should keep to the high road, and keep hammering on the economy.
The Democrats can't be sucked into a fight that the Republicans started. They should start a different fight, and make it a good one.
My suggestion: Go after McCain's ethics. There is plenty of material there. McCain is as phony as the proverbial $3 bill. He's in the hip pocket of every lobbyist in Washington.
Nah. Palin is nothing but a petulant little punk agitator who has no business being in the big leagues save for expansion teams.
She is about to be assessed a 15 game suspension. She will then be put on waivers and sent back to the farm team to toil in the minor leagues until...
Na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na
You know I used to be a bad girl
I got busy in the bathroom at my high school prom
Yeah I used to be a dancer at the local strip club
But now I know my right wing from my wrong
Yeah, yeah
I really used to be a bad girl
I had a threesome with my sister and her boyfriend John
I know I used to be a real wild child
But now I am a Volvo-driving hockey mom.
Na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na
I really used to be a bad girl
I got busted for possession of my wizard-shaped bong
I used to love to do the things they tell me not to do
But now I'm different--now I sing a new song
I really used to be a bad girl
I got gang-banged in the bathroom at my high school prom
Yes, I used to be a real wild child
But now I am a Volvo-driving hockey mom
Na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na
Where do all the porn stars go
When the lights go down?
I wonder where all the porn stars go
'Cause when you need one, they are never around
I think they moved out to the suburbs
And now they're brunette, bland, middle-class Republican wives
They all have brunnette, bland, middle-class Republican children
brunette, bland, middle-class Republican lives
Where do all the porn stars go
When the lights go down?
I think I know where all the porn stars go
They all become Volvo-driving hockey moms
Na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na na-na
There's also an aspect of sheer drive to campaigning, as there's to most team sports. Strategy is important, but when you're playing for cheers from the audience and not points, showing more spirit than the other guy becomes crucial. Being loud and aggressive signals that you really want to win.
Palin won't hold a press conference for 2 simple reasons.
One, the McCain campaign doesn't trust the media to portray her in a "fair" light. Especially after the silly feeding frenzy about her in the media over the last week and what they see as liberal bias.
Second, She isn't prepared to answer all the questions people ask of presidents, particularly about foreign policy. But she's a quick study I hear, and I guess she'll be ready before too long.
Expect a major interview or press conference in a week or two.
Keeping on the sports analogies...
Obama knows far more than any of us do about how he's really doing. We're all "low information voters" compared to his campaign.
If he feels that things are going well, he's going to act like a team with a 37-20 leads in the 4th quarter that has possession: running plays and short passes.
Attacking McCain's ethics has potential to succeed but also to backfire. I doubt he bothers unless he feels he needs to.
"One, the McCain campaign doesn't trust the media to portray her in a "fair" light."
This is an elaborately constructed lie, of course. The media hasn't been unfair to her at all. She's received kid gloves treatment compared to Obama.
"Second, She isn't prepared to answer all the questions people ask of presidents, particularly about foreign policy."
Then she should never have been nominated. PERIOD. Exactly as Sean said.
"Reality has a liberal bias."
At cnn.com Obama says that Republicans think American voters are stupid. Granted that this attitude is relatively accurate given who they voted into the White House, but...
More on topic, I read the comments section after the article. A couple of people have Sarah Palin publically referring to Obama as "Sambo" and to indigenous Alaskans as "Artic Arabs." I'd love to see that get picked up, preferably with video by the national media. I don't know that these accusations are correct, but it could make some interesting hay if they are.
A bit of Goggling helped me track down the apparent source of those comments here at LAProgressive
Unfortunately, this looks like a liberal blog and the whole thing's based on something some waitress said she overheard. It's pretty damning if it's reliable, I just don't know how reliable it is. Any thoughts or corroberation from any other sources?
There's a chance the Bradley Effect causes New Hampshire to fall into McCain's column (remember the primaries). If this happens, then Nevada is almost assuredly not the tipping point. It would all come down to Colorado.
This is just more proof that Nate is an Anti-American pinko...what real American knows so much about hockey? Why don't you go back to Canada with all the other socialists who hate America?
The above is just more proof that people can be, and often are, truly ignorant.
In this case someone refused to read a byline.
Women aren't going for Palin in the droves McCainiacs might hope. Yes, white Republican women are enthused by her (+5), but it's unlikely this group was in the Obama camp to begin with. There's been little movement among Republican men. Obama is seeing gains with independent men (+7) and women (+5) and has gotten a boost from his own party (all dems +8) as well. He is leading with white independent women by almost 10 points.
Source
"Second, She isn't prepared to answer all the questions people ask of presidents, particularly about foreign policy. "
Second time I've heard this "she isn't yet prespared" excuse today. Why is it ok for John McCain to select an unprepared candidate after clearly stating earlier that preparedness for the presidency was his number one criteria for his VP choice?
Interesting analysis. I don't think I'm quite so cynical as to assert that's the primary reason she was picked, but she certainly does fill the campaign role of the VP as Sean describes....Matthew, apparently you're kind of an idiot.
SEAN
excellent analogy on all points.
this week the DEMs are basically playing one man down since the GOPers have managed to trick the refs into putting the MSM into the penalty box..
fortunately for the DEMS, they have at least 3 scoring lines, so there is plenty of time to regain their composure and get back on top of their game.
this is like a seven game playoff stretched out over the next 8 weeks, where one team only needs to win 4 of 7 in the end to claim the prize...
my bet remains on the superior skills & skating prowess of the Blue Dems to prevail in 7 over the sucker-punching, elbowing, tripping, spearing & hooking of the Red Gopers.
BenJones said...
"Expect a major interview or press conference in a week or two." (Palin)
Yeah, either on Fox News or maybe by Brokaw on Meet the Press. Brokaw is a softie though. If she had to sink or swim by stepping into the batters' box with Russert, she'd sink, no question about it. Unfortunately that can't happen.
Nate,
I agree with you that Joe Biden was fantastic yesterday.
I would leave Biden in MI, OH, PA and maybe in VA and ask him to keep that exactly same kind of fighting, issues and record based argument with the fighter attitude.
That is exactly what will work in those parts.
I think Joe could easily get a very significant % of the people there to vote for the Obama/ Biden ticket, simply because they see him as the EXACT kind of person they want- A TRULY WORKING CLASS GUY WHO RIDES THE AMTRAK EVERY SINGLE DAY TO/FROM WORK.
And it looked even better on TV.
Natalie said...
Women aren't going for Palin in the droves McCainiacs might hope. Yes, white Republican women are enthused by her (+5), but it's unlikely this group was in the Obama camp to begin with. There's been little movement among Republican men. Obama is seeing gains with independent men (+7) and women (+5) and has gotten a boost from his own party (all dems +8) as well. He is leading with white independent women by almost 10 points.
This was all before she gave her speech, so the numbers are no longer valid.
Quote from Charles Cockrock: "But it isn't that way because we are intelligent and informed and educated but tens of millions are not"
How pompous of an asshole does it take to make that kind of statement. No wonder the "idiots" out there keep running to the Republicans, even when it is likely not in their best interest to do so. When they hear such self-promotion of the intelligence of the left (such as you displayed), they want to get as far away as possible.
For all of that intelligence, you'd think you'd have figured that one out by now you ignorant jackass.
Great post, Sean! The very fact that some of the conservative sickos around here are criticizing it means you're right on the ball.
Conservatism is disgusting. It plays dirty and it will lie, cheat, or steal any way it can if it means a better chance of winning. Democrats need to take shots where they can, but focus on their message and take the case to the American people. Ignore the scum on the right and keep your eyes on the prize. Thanks for the reminder!
eric: There is no Bradly effect. It's dead. There's actually a reverse-Bradley effect observable now rom primaries: more people ended up voting for Obama than said they will vote for him.
And that post, Sean, is the wisest post by any commenter on this site without exception.
I quibble with some details, but they are irrelevant as you rightly state.
You have hit on the thread of hope the BO has to win this election. Now the question, is he tough enough to fight back against the Maverick and Barracuda? With his dirty man being Slow Joe Biden ("If I had better hair then I wouldn't be messing around in the second spot")?
I don't like your odds.
Oz.
"Reality has a liberal bias"
Once again, Cockrock, you provide proof of your condescension by letting this arrogant garbage spew from your mouth. Your hubris is astounding. You'd be well-served to run for president yourself since you're so on top of things.
All you have to say is Sarah Palin is George Bush in a skirt.
Likewise, Sean Avery, an agitator of the highest order. Only problem is, he was basically run out of Los Angeles because his own teammates got sick of him taking dumb penalties and being kind of a dick in the locker room. Then he went to the Rangers, picked up his game, settled down.... and the Rangers still haven't won jack with him. Interesting sports analogy for sure, though.
Great post, Sean.
Another way that hockey is analagous to what happens in here every day: if an opposing player reaches up to adjust his helmet, briefly obscuring one of MY guy's field of vision so he stumbles into the goal post and bruises his knee... I want that other bastard to get a 5-game suspension, minimum.
But if one of MY guys (say, Darcy Tucker :-) drives somebody viciously into the boards and then skates over his prone body, causing one of the fallen player's eyeballs to squirt out onto the ice, I think.. "Yeah. Nice clean check."
AxmxZ,
Not in New Hampshire. Your sole evidence besides the Dem primaries is Ford's election. We don't know about a presidential election because we've never had a black man running.
Sarah Palin represents everything that should embarrass the United States around the world.
She is a blantant idiot who got kicked out of 6 colleges in 5 years and who's proud of it, white trash/hick origins, a religious extremist who would make some people in Afghanistan proud and she thinks it's God who'll decide the fate of the war in Irak and of energy contracts etc...etc...
She represents everything the world (especially Europe) uses everyday to mock the U.S. in their news outlets. She is actually a gift for all the anti-americans around the world who rejoice in seeing in her the stereotypical ignorant, empty-headed white trash american. We all know the U.S. is more than that. But unfortunatly that is how the world sees it.
In making this choice, McCain has actually done a disservice to his country (remember? country first...) Who is she exactlty supposed to represent? The racists who see a black man who graduates from Harvard as "upitty"? The cowboys from the midwest? Religious christian extremists who will one day transform themselves into terrorists?
Since I can remember, each relatively close election seemed to turn on a soundbite.
In 1980 it was (Reagan to Carter) "there you go again"; in 1988 it was Dukakis' answer to the Kitty Dukakis rape question; in 1992 it was Bush Sr. "read my lips..." quote that came back to haunt him; in 2000 it was Gore's "I invented the internet"; in 2004 it was Kerry's "I voted for it before I voted against it".
I think in 2008, it will come down to that YouTube/Obama ad that shows McCain proudly proclaiming, "I've voted to support the president (Bush) over 90% of the time". There is no way, no way, that Obama is going to let McCain get away with being the Washington Reformer and the agent of change when he's got that quote queued up and ready to go over and over and over again in OH, CO, NV, MI, PA and VA.
Charles,
I have no doubt that Obama wasn't prepared to answer most foreign policy questions when he first contemplated running for president a few years ago. But he's a smart guy who studied hard, and he's caught. Sure he still isn't really prepared to be president,(or for that matter Palin), because he hasn't really been tested in real situations yet.
I don't think the media has been fair. Would the media have reacted the same way with liberal democrat, of course not. Obama was considered a long shot in this election, but the media took him seriously from the get go, and it took forever for his dirty laundry to get any air time. Compare that with how they treated the Palin selection. Also, they wouldn't touch the Edwards affair story with a 30 foot pole, but their was a scram to report every aspect of her family issues. Andrew Sullivan even gave credence to the ridiculous fake down syndrome baby rumors.
Daniel said...
Heard a funny joke today -- what's the difference between Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney?
Lipstick!
Obviously you haven't heard what Dick likes to do in his free time ;-)
It's amazing, you know, this is the same response the Democrats used against the swiftboaters. Ignore them and focus on issues, and it didn't work.
Attacking them doesn't work, ignoring them doesn't work. You see how f&^*ing frustrating this is?
While this post is a good analogy, I think that Palin is overblown. The amount of saturation her one speech has had throughout the media is frustrating because the political commentarati doesn't know how to turn the page by itself. If bad economic numbers continue to pour out (like jobs, the mortgage industry) then I expect them to regain some focus on the TRUE issues of this campaign (Obama and Biden's sunday talk should help, too). This may create blowback for the McCain campaign, especially if they hide Palin away and the story becomes "why won't she talk." But then again that's yet another story about her and not the issues. Look how quickly Obama and Biden appeared on 60 minutes. Will the McCain ticket ever get around to doing the same? All that energy/ buzz is going to be wasted. Remember if your a man down in hockey, its power play time and Obama and his team need to score.
"Why is it ok for John McCain to select an unprepared candidate after clearly stating earlier that preparedness for the presidency was his number one criteria for his VP choice?"
Because what's left of the rotted out core of the neocon/Christaliban takeover of the GOP is a bunch of scheming, shameless hypocrites.
They lie to your face and laugh about it, and just generally think they can do whatever they want and get away with it. And it's up to us to stop them.
Fighting Palin is just what the RNC wants this year. Wake up. Talk about the economy and energy policy as a real move toward improved national security.
It is energy policy that unites the 3 issues of the century: Climate Change, our National Security, and the Economy. And McCain didnt vote for solar energy this year. McCain and Palin want to "Drill-Drill-Drill" anything. Anybody else who might support the pro-OIL lobby may not be American in their eyes. That is the big issue.
America needs direction and leadership. Not another S&L/mortgage crisis, not another pro-OIL decision, not another policy of warmongering in the wrong country--where none of the 911 terrorists came from, not another DO-NOTHING president that watches an American city drown from his armchair on TV.
Palin is the next uber-conservative face in 100% support of all of the above failed policies. She is the earmark recipient. McCain's campaign is run by lobbyist and party faithful--HE IS NOT a maverick. McCain is a puppet manipulated by the right-wing--an empty, tired old man trying to appear like an independent in favor of a person like Palin. McCain is the weak candidate without true values and convictions--he picked the right wing and a religious zealot to bring change...censorship, destruction of wildlife, and the marriage of church and state.
GO OBAMA 2008!!!
AxmxZ said...
eric: There is no Bradly effect. It's dead. There's actually a reverse-Bradley effect observable now rom primaries: more people ended up voting for Obama than said they will vote for him.
Perhaps I'd believe Reverse Bradley in Virginia, but in New Hampshire did you see the polling before the Dem primary, confused everyone. The polling was wrong, and not in favor of Obama. Probably the same would happen in Massachusetts, it just won't be in the margin of error. He'll win there you know by 10, instead of 15, but New Hampshire is close, and I'd bet may flip because of the Bradley Effect.
I Am Legend...
Go feed your mule. It's getting noisy.
"I have no doubt that Obama wasn't prepared to answer most foreign policy questions when he first contemplated running for president a few years ago."
SO WHAT?
That's why he wasn't on the goddamned TICKET a few years ago!
Good God, man! You seem like a smart chap. Look at what you're saying!
John McCain spent the WHOLE SUMMER harping about experience and leadership and judgment and how critical the role would be because we are at warwarwar -- and he picks some idiot who can't give a press conference without crib notes?!
How can ANYONE who claims to love America justify this? It's OUTRAGEOUS!
"But he's a smart guy who studied hard, and he's caught."
Great! Nominate her in 2012. Do I REALLY have to explain this?
"Would the media have reacted the same way with liberal democrat, of course not."
Are you out of your ever-loving mind?!
Where were you in March? It was "Reverend Wright" this and "Reverend Wright" that, and Michelle doesn't love her country and where is his flag pin, and why won't he say the Oath of Allegiance -- and a thousand other bullshit things.
Sarah Palin has had NOTHING compared to that. NOTHING!
She talks about Hillary being a whiner when she is the BIGGEST whiner EVER to be on a ticket!
Get some perspective, because you've been snowjobbed.
james: Ford's election is actually another piece of evidence against a persisting Bradley effect. You're free to correct me with data, of course, but I don't think Ford's election showed a measurable Bradley effect.
filistro -
Charles makes some of the most condescending remarks imaginable and I take note, yet I'M the one who is the braying ass.
The fight's not with you, anyway. Sorry.
Wow this is so spot on. But I'm not sure what this says about how the strategy the Obama campaign should take. Send out their own agitators or ignore?
Conservatism is disgusting. It plays dirty and it will lie, cheat, or steal any way it can if it means a better chance of winning. Democrats need to take shots where they can, but focus on their message and take the case to the American people. Ignore the scum on the right and keep your eyes on the prize. Thanks for the reminder!
You're taking the wrong message. Yes, they can ignore Palin's jabs because, say, unlike the Swiftboat Vets, there wasn't any theme anyway. It was just a bunch of unfocused ranting to establish herself as an attack bitch.
But the flip side is that every winning team needs one of those people. The Democrats have an advantage, because we've got two of them: Biden, and Clinton.
Now they need to get out there and start body-checking and high-sticking. It's been years and years since the Democrats did it with any gusto.
HA! HA! HA!
You did really well, Sean, but reading the posts around here, I figure that only 20% of the nutrooters got your point. And those that did probably aren't hard core nutroots anyway. Fakers!
I hope all you friggin' idiots keep the attacks on her personal...
Chillbilly!
Stupid!
Bad mother!
Now that's an electorally sound plan. You all go back to ignoring Sean.
Oz.
Charles M. Kozierok -
Answer me, you arrogant bastard. How dare you talk down to millions of people. Get a grip, you asshole.
"She is a blantant idiot who got kicked out of 6 colleges in 5 years and who's proud of it"
Yes. And do you know why?
Because it's a deliberate GOP ploy to make shame the intelligent and educated into voting for the stupid and mediocre: "smart guilt".
james: Point is, all evidence points that the Bradley effect died off with the older and presumably more racist generation of voters.
Yes, those polls were taken before the speech, but do you honestly see Palin's speech moving those numbers in a significant way? It was a good speech, but it's not like she gave the Gettysburg Address. I'm a moderate Democrat, for Obama but persuadable, and I was repelled. So were my parents, Republican-leaning independents. We live in rural Florida. We may not be representative, but she is a very divisive figure. I just don't see her inspiring a conservative revolution based on her mean girl/folksy charm.
I think early numbers bear me out here.
"Answer me, you arrogant bastard. How dare you talk down to millions of people. Get a grip, you asshole."
How dare I?
Gladly! Willingly!
I REJECT the notion that a nation that strives for excellence should seek the most mediocre, unsuccessful, unintelligent people for the highest offices of the land.
We've had 8 years of a clueless laughingstock in the White House -- and look what it's brought us.
No more political correctness when it comes to qualifications!
I don't want a "hockey mom" in the White House, dammit! I want a smart, capable leader. I want someone who can *outsmart* a Putin, not serve him a mooseburger!
If she's not even prepared to answer reporters' questions, she's unprepared for any high office. That's all any democrat should have to say or should say.
There's some merit to this. But don't expect too much. They're building up to steal a news cycle with her first press conference. Every time Democrats make this criticism, it helps build up the opportunity presented by her first press conference.
You're taking the wrong message. Yes, they can ignore Palin's jabs because, say, unlike the Swiftboat Vets, there wasn't any theme anyway. It was just a bunch of unfocused ranting to establish herself as an attack bitch.
You are 100% correct, and I left that out of my post. Ignore their attacks while gouging with our own, never forgetting the stiletto is best administered with a smile.
"I don't want a "hockey mom" in the White House, dammit! I want a smart, capable leader. I want someone who can *outsmart* a Putin, not serve him a mooseburger!"
Who's on top of the GOP ticket again? Palin or McCain?
If McCain/Palin are elected this Nov, then this team will be the worst educated twosome to EVER be elected in over 50 years.
John McCain 3rd from bottom of his Naval Academy class of over 800, per govt records.
And Palin attended 5 collges and took 6 years to graduate with a Journalism degree from the great potatto state of Idaho.
WOW! Let's show the world the brilliance of our leaders AND our electorate.
IF they get elected, NO parent can tell their kids they need to do well in school to be successful. Because the kids would say, come on Mom, Come On Dad, look at our President and Vice President.
Grades don't matter, what I graduate in does not matter. Just see the shining example of of our President and Vice President of the United States!
I wonder what our teachers in our school can then say to the kids in school after that???!!!!
nick;
It's amazing, you know, this is the same response the Democrats used against the swiftboaters. Ignore them and focus on issues, and it didn't work.
Attacking them doesn't work, ignoring them doesn't work. You see how f&^*ing frustrating this is?
The issue isn't just attacking but how you attack. You guys keep doing things like Christofacist! Stupid! Hick! Small Town Ignoramous!
Those attacks fail because they are not specific, but general. In other words, you aren't attacking the person specifically, but a whole group of voters generally. Effective blows against BO in the last month have been landed because the are attacks on him specifically: "The One", who else does that apply to?; Dems, including Biden, saying he doesn't have what it takes; etc.
You attack Palin as being small town, you attack all small towns. You attack Palin as a bad mother, you attack all mothers.
That, fellas, is where you are failing.
Oz.
SEAN
while I agreed with your hockey analogy in my post above, I meant to temper it with a disclaimer that we 'assume' that Palin is only a 4th liner agitator with limited skills.
while that is my personal opinion, only time will tell if that assessment is born out during the last 8 weeks of the campaign.
so far, her performances are basically one note only [all agitator & elbows in controlled situations as opposed to skating free across the ice of the MSM]
but IF she turns out to be a natural skilled all-around player, [think Gordie Howe in his prime] then she would be a force to be reckoned with.
Gordie Howe's strength combined with his 'positioning', punching & well-timed elbows are what freed him & his teammates up for scoring & winning the Cup in all those years in Detroit.
Gordie was beloved at home & hated on the road.
Hopefully Palin will only prove to be a one-way limited agitator & team enforcer beloved by the home fans only, and not develop into an actual game changing 'superstar' as the GOPer base thinks she already is IMHO...
How can ANYONE who claims to love America justify this? It's OUTRAGEOUS!
Whining about it won't win the election.
Focusing on:
McCain = Bush, and the economy sucks, will win the election.
Yes, McCain is a hypocritical douche. No, whining about it won't help. Staying on messsage will help.
Exactly, quantman. That's what the "smart guilt" strategy is all about.
And if it continues we are all in very, VERY deep trouble. Because other countries don't elect idiots to office because they'd "like to have a beer with them".
FYI, I deliberately put the 2 t's in potato in my original post, just to make the Dan Quayle point!
Food for thought - tide is turning for McCain.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548
Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge
But the race is tight, as both campaigns consolidate support
UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.
Data from this poll is available here
The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.
The Ticket Horserace
9-5/6
8-29/30
McCain-Palin
49.7%
47.1%
Obama-Biden
45.9%
44.6%
Others/Not sure
4.4%
8.3%
In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.
One-on-One Horserace
9-5/6
McCain
48.8%
Obama
45.7%
Others/Not sure
5.5%
In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.
The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.
quantman: Frankly, that's a large part of Obama's appeal to me, outside of policy issues. I never figured I'd see the day when America would be led by someone unapologetically smart. Even Bill Clinton had to hide his Rhodes Scholar smarts behind aw-shucks folksiness.
Online surveys aren't worth the paper they're printed on.
Nate- nice analogy, I think it fits the situation very well. It is hard to see any other purpose for her.
I remain an optimist. The Palin-effect will work for about 2 weeks. Then the novelty and repetition will wear thin. The Republicans cannot keep her from answering questions and just reading prepared scripts for very long. People will get suspicious.
As soon as people see her what she really is; a nasty, ambition, parochial, disingenuous, small town politician, with a questionable education and no world view this transparent farce will collapse.
I think in the end McCain will suffer for caving in to his handlers and doing something so blatantly political that puts the country in jeopardy.
It is clear that 30% of the country will vote for McCain/Palin no matter what (they still support Bush). I truly hope no more than another 19% are stupid enough not to look behind the curtain and see who is operating Palin.
You can just as easily say "when you attack city people, you attack all cities" or "when you apply that getting an education and being successful is somehow less American than being poor, you attack the American dream." I think it's pretty unpatriotic for Republicans to imply that New York and California aren't really American or heap scorn on European countries that have been our staunch allies for hundreds of years. I was saddened and embarassed to hear Republicans mock service at a national convention.
It cuts both ways.
"Because other countries don't elect idiots to office because they'd "like to have a beer with them""
Yeah, because the rest of the world is free to elect anyone they choose in a democracy very similar to ours.
I'm sure Saddam Hussein rose to power as a likeable guy who was spot on in his policies and was genuinely liked and respected by the people for his intelligence and ability to lead.
Zogby online? *yawn*
I remain an optimist. The Palin-effect will work for about 2 weeks. Then the novelty and repetition will wear thin. The Republicans cannot keep her from answering questions and just reading prepared scripts for very long.
And they're not going to. They're going to withhold her for long enough for the "how come Palin won't talk to the press???" questions to reach a crescendo. Then they're going to steal a news cycle with her first press conference.
Brilliant.
You leave out a critical element in your hockey analogy. Expose the agitator enough, and without getting emotional about it, and it is the agitator who suffers. Agitators can only throw a few punches and they must throw them well and the earlier they are called the less opportunity they have later to fight.
What concerns me about the Dems is they are not siccing some sleaze surrogate (tabloid would be perfect) on her little hiding place. Make her hiding a nice story!
McCain = Bush
Palin = Cheney (with lipstick)
Same economic strategy and oil policy and war mongering.
It is a simple equation.
America needs to move forward.
In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 or 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18th was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.
"Yeah, because the rest of the world is free to elect anyone they choose in a democracy very similar to ours.
I'm sure Saddam Hussein rose to power as a likeable guy who was spot on in his policies and was genuinely liked and respected by the people for his intelligence and ability to lead."
Psst.
There are countries outside of Iraq.
And another newsflash: even most dictators are smarter than George W. Bush or John McCain or Sarah Palin.
And YES, it DOES matter.
You can just as easily say "when you attack city people, you attack all cities" or "when you apply that getting an education and being successful is somehow less American than being poor, you attack the American dream." I think it's pretty unpatriotic for Republicans to imply that New York and California aren't really American or heap scorn on European countries that have been our staunch allies for hundreds of years. I was saddened and embarassed to hear Republicans mock service at a national convention.
Don't let them make you mad. That's what they're trying to do. Stay calm. Stay focused. Stay on message. Message discipline wins elections.
The message is:
McCain = Bush, and the economy sucks.
To GaryB
"As soon as people see Obama for what he really is; a nasty, ambition, parochial, disingenuous, Chicago machine politician, with a good education but very skewed world view and questionable associations, this transparent farce will collapse"
Actually, the numbers are in line with the one day result estimate by your hero Nate from Gallup.
Silly lefties, governing is for grownups.
Kevin Drum takes a closer look at the latest ABC News poll and finds an interesting discrepancy:
If I'm reading this right, about 89% of Republicans approve of the Palin pick, but only 74% believe she's prepared to be president. This means that 15% of Republicans approve of their nominee choosing a running mate who's unprepared to succeed him if necessary.
Remind me again what the campaign's motto is? "Country First"?
"And they're not going to. They're going to withhold her for long enough for the "how come Palin won't talk to the press???" questions to reach a crescendo. Then they're going to steal a news cycle with her first press conference."
Which would be fine if the media could be trusted to do their damn jobs...
A tiny convention bounce for the old sod. Ah...a moment of triumph. But the election is in November and still...
McCain is the McSame as Bush
and well unemployment is at a 5 year high
and well oil >$100/b
and well the stock market is crap
and well people are losing there one house (McCain would notice losing one of his houses.)
Triumph indeed for McBush...
----NOT AN ACTUAL QUOTE--------
"I've met so many people on this campaign. I've met people who work to better the lives of others, people who toil without pay to be Good Samaritans to their neighbors. John McCain allowed his supporters to mock Good Samaritans. John McCain believes Good Samaritans should be held up to ridicule.
I believe Good Samaritans are the backbone of America. The spirit of volunteerism is part of what makes America great. That John McCain would allow his cronies to mock that spirit shows that he truly places politics above patriotism. That's unacceptable in my book."
-----NOT AN ACTUAL QUOTE--------
This is the type of attack we should be using. Attack their words, attack their attitudes, attack their values. A conservative is someone who sneers at neighbors helping neighbors. That's what's at stake this election....you get the idea.
Sean´s analogy might be truer than we wish for. If Republicans argue that Sarah Palin is a great pick because she likes hunting and fishing you understand how much this has become a game for everyone. (and this site makes it look like a game, too - and I am guilty of playing it)
Looking at the purple states in during the 2004 Presidential election.
1)Iowa
2)Minnesota
3)New Mexico
4)Oregon
5)Pennsylvania
6)Wisconsin
are states Obama-Biden ticket is favored to win.
7)Colorado
8)Florida
9)Michigan
10)Nevada
11)New Hampshire
12)Ohio
are going to be purple states that will lean Democratic.
13)Indiana
14)Missouri
15)Montana
16)North Carolina
17)Virginia
are Red States in 2004 that are going to be purple states in 2008.
Bill P.
"A conservative is someone who sneers at neighbors helping neighbors. That's what's at stake this election....you get the idea"
You couldn't be further from the truth. And how dare you lump everyone who claims to be a "conservative" with that kind of a stereotypical attack.
(True) Conservatives are some of the most charitable people in this country. There is untold good being done in churches and other non-profit venues around the country where conservatives are the driving force.
I'm not defending the comments made about community organizers, but you come off as a lying farce to make such a blanket statement of hate and vile against "conservatives."
Get a clue who they are before you say a damn thing, asswipe.
Come on, have some imagination. Send someone in a chicken suit to her campaign rallies, holding an oversized reporter's notebook., with a big sign around its neck reading, "What are you afraid of?"
Zogby Online is NOT a scientific poll for a whole host of reasons.
If YOU don't get that, then YOU need to retake the Statistics course in College.
That is why it is not included in Nate's poll numbers and just about every other pollster.
Zogby does do good polls and those are mostly for paid subscribers.
I was actually shouting in the general vicinity of my wife earlier today about the "Obama-baiting" of Palin, up to and including the fact that I have heard (although cannot confirm, as I live in Texas) McCain is running ads that compare Palin to Obama.
Obama was smart in his early, pre-Palin-speech ads that sidestepped her and went back to McCain.
Palin *will* disappear and fall off the radar if Obama is smart and doesn't try to defend against her. His campaign needs to realize that she really is more of a flash in the pan VP pick than anything else, and, like advertisements, ignoring them makes them go away. The more he ignores her, the less blood the media has to smell, and the less print she'll see. Ultimately, of course, this benefits Obama.
If he sticks to the economy, the "shrinking violet" shrinks away and it's back to an Obama - McCain race, which Obama wins.
Well put, Sean.
By the way, Zogby´s interactive polls are strangely McCain-friendly lately. He showed McCain ahead when everyone else was showing Obama´s initial convention bounce. I would guess there is a concentrated effort to manipulate these interactive polls. And I don´t blame anyone for that, it´s just Zogby´s methodology that is terrible.
Geoff,
While you are sometimes reasonable, you also act like an idiot sometimes. Citing Zogby Interactive? And treating it seriously. If it makes you feel better, go ahead. But don't expect anyone who knows anything to give a rip. I called you out on this a week ago when you did it...
It's more primal than any hockey analogy: From the top New York City advertising executive on the 'Palin Effect"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9GfJvLyh-g
Obama must destroy Palin with real evidence of misconduct in Alaska or he's done. Issues and Policy mean nothing, as Mr. Deutch points out in the video.
The year of the white working class woman!
"If YOU don't get that, then YOU need to retake the Statistics course in College."
College? That's only for elitists!
Scary when it becomes harder and harder to differentiate the real world from the Colbert Report.
"You attack Palin as being small town, you attack all small towns. You attack Palin as a bad mother, you attack all mothers."
Good thing the democrats aren't attacking Palin for her small town roots or her mothering skills or her faith. Now the Republicans were certainly HOPING for these lines of attack, but Obama is too smart for fall for that particular bait.
The best thing to do with Palin is ignore her and score points on McCain: Bush/McCain/Economy. And this is exactly what Obama and Biden have done.
Draper as an agitator? Um ... uh ... maybe you are not as familiar with Wings rosters as I might have guessed. There are several other players they've had who've fit that description much better. (Pat Verbeek, for example.)
And I'm sure you also know that Draper's name was put on the Cup very recently without Yzerman's on-ice help. :)
I think the hockey agitator analogy isn't bad, but I don't think you took it in the right direction. Agitators do not win Cups. They may contribute, but they do not win. Teams that win Cups have a bit of agitation in them, but have the talent to capitalize when the agitation works and the skill to score when it does not.
The best agitators are the ones who have skill as well - otherwise they are potential weak spots, like Avery is now. Palin is more an Avery than a Claude Lemieux. (Except perhaps for the cheap shots.)
Palin will fade some, but not as much as many expect!
The media will use Palin to sell themselves for ratings and for money!
And she is the only woman in the race. They will continue to cover her more than McCain.
Ok, I get it now--
Palin=Hockey
Obama=Basketball, Poker
McCain=Craps, POW
Biden=Blue Collar, Amtrak
Charles,
"I have no doubt that Obama wasn't prepared to answer most foreign policy questions when he first contemplated running for president a few years ago. But he's a smart guy who studied hard, and he's caught. Sure he still isn't really prepared to be president,(or for that matter Palin), because he hasn't really been tested in real situations yet."
First, Obama's field of concentration at Columbia was foreign affairs. There was a bit of a flap a while back because the RNC wanted a copy of a paper he wrote but the professor did not have a copy.
Second, there have been several individuals interviewed who talked about Obama appearing for an hour "just to ask a few questions" and staying for several hours. The commentors all said he was very bright and very knowledgeable.
Third, Obama is a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee. He has a security clearance, he has attended hearings, he has traveled abroad as in his capacity as U.S. Senator.
Finally....uhm....okay, guess you will have to fill in the Palin blanks for me.
Legend -
A hall full of conservatives laughing while volunteerism is mocked tells me everything I need to know.
On the other hand, thank you for proving my point at the effectiveness of such an argument.
Srsly.
I don't trust the Zogby Interactive this time because OBama will get millions of votes from African-Americans that Kerry didn't get and that group I'd bet are undersampled in Zogby Interactive.
GEOFF
the internal so of the Zogby poll do not even support there own conclusions IMO.
How can the results of the 'ONE way horserace' be less for BOTH sides than the 'ticket horserace' ?
That defires logic, no ?
The undecideds & others are also too low.
Plus that topline for Zogby is virtually unchanged from their online poll last week, which was shown to be an outlier.
I mean, even right-leaning RCP doesn't include these lousy polls from Zogby.
BTW - past performance in a Nov election is no indication of current mid-cycle accuracy or a reliable predictor of this election.
A better Internet poll is the weekly one by ECON/YouGov poll which showed the following results for 9/3:
Ob - 42
Mc - 39
Other - 3
Not Voting - 2
Undecided - 13
McCain may have 'bounced' up to a virtual tie this weekend, but that UND & OTHER are the remaining swing voters to fight over in the last 8 weeks...
The best thing to do with Palin is ignore her and score points on McCain: Bush/McCain/Economy. And this is exactly what Obama and Biden have done.
Yes. This. Very well said. Message discipline wins elections.
Smitty: FYI, benjones wrote that, I was just quoting him. (I agree with you, of course.)
The pitbull is a pekingese puppy hiding from the press. Fuck, I even take a Ruch Limbaugh interview at this point.
I_Am_Legend
You need to explain why conservatives laughed at volunteerism, and are electrified by a woman who sneered at community organizing.
And there is no reliable data showing that conservatives are charitable, by the way.
What Palin proved by reading a speech written by George W. Bush's speechwriters is that the McCain-Palin ticket is committed not just to continuing the Bush administration's failed policies, but to the Bush administration's ugly rhetorical style, which is tearing our country apart. It's time for a change. Eight is enough.
DCM... Jack Fowler over at the Corner is touting this poll done in Florida just after McCain's speech.
What are your thoughts?
Obama and Democrats need a one-word label for their opponents and I feel the perfect word is "hypocrites."
I'd like to hear this coming out of every Democrats mouth for the next 60 days.
Palin and McCain are hypocrites.
By calling out Palin / McCain for the hypocrites that they are, Obama can define them without opening himself up to the inevitable RNC counterattack - I've heard the experience thing, the earmark thing etc. etc.
What counter can Repubs make to Obama calling them hypocrites?
I think many democrats don't truly understand the nature of Republican elitist attacks, or why they have tended to resonate. It's not about intelligence, or money. Americans consistently elect rich, educated intelligent politicians, especially to the presidency. It's all about culture. Voters want people from their culture, who share common values and who treat them with respect, but are still BETTER than them.
This Bush is stupid meme has really gotten out of hand. I think it's because democrat's automatically think they're smarter, and because Bush has been known to mispronounce words. But he is still an extremely intelligent guy. He DID go to Yale and received an MBA from Harvard.
McCain went to the Naval academy, an elite academic institutions, and he also received post graduate education at the war college. Palin's education is a little underwhelming for a VP candidate, but she's still clearly a very intelligent person. Also, remember that Biden graduated near the bottom of his law school class.
That was a brilliant read Sean on the VP role assigned to Palin. My money says McCain won't be an effective enough goal scoring machine. If he was he a truly effective "offensive" player he would have succeeded in passing the immigration bill.
DCM-
the difference in result is the popularity of Palin v. Biden.
These numbers are for today and yesterday, and Nate estimated that McCain was plus four for yesterday.
So why such an outlier? Is Nate wrong?
I am a little tired of Palin now. I am done with her - I have vetted her hard and deeply for myself. I actually went looking for a fresh Joe Biden-clip today.
Time for a change
McBush-Palin 2008
Vote for the Grand Oil Party
Shake up Washington with 4 more years of the same.
How can this work.
Stay on message guys...
Republicans didn't mock service, that mocked Obama's community organizing day's. I think this attack probably play's well, because people have no real idea what he did as one. My best understanding seems to be that Obama spent time trying to registrar voters and rouse protests, which most people probally wouldn't consider particularly noble or a good preperation for the presidency.
Dose anyone have a different take on what Obama did as a community organizer?
Benjones got it right. It's about culture. Why Democrats always fail to get this I'll never know. They got it right once in the last twenty-eight years with Bill Clinton.
If Palin is the "bruiser" then McCain is the washed-up all-star trying desperately to make it back to a winning team even though he lacks the abilities to play at that high of a level.
Obama and Democrats need a one-word label for their opponents and I feel the perfect word is "hypocrites."
That's a good approach--if you can tie it into existing themes.
For example: "like Bush-Cheney, McCain-Palin is a ticket composed of hypocrites. Their sneering condescension at community organizing proves that they're committed not only to continuing Bush's failed policies, but that they're committed to the Bush administration's glaring hypocrisy. It's time for a change. Eight is enough."
The Zogby polls are a joke. Obama up or McCain up there are a joke.
AxmxZ said...
"There is no Bradly effect. It's dead. There's actually a reverse-Bradley effect observable now rom primaries: more people ended up voting for Obama than said they will vote for him."
Two points here: First, according to a study conducted by the University of Washington after the primaries, the reverse Bradley Effect was only seen in states with higher AA populations. So the "reverse" could be an underestimation of the turnout among AA voters.
Second, the Bradley Effect has always been seen when an AA male has run against a white male. In the primaries, Obama was running against another minority candidate - a woman. I suspect that the Bradley Effect may be alive and well and show itself come November.
But the good news (for Obama supporters) is that most of these state and national polls fail to incorporate cell phone only households (which is over 15% of the population now). Cell phone only households skew towards younger voters (who are large Obama supporters) - so the actual numbers may swing a couple points towards Obama once this part of the population is included.
Baz744
"And there is no reliable data showing that conservatives are charitable, by the way"
When you make such a ridiculous statement like that, it's obvious you are an ignorant fool and nothing I could say or do would convince you of anything otherwise.
You are too full of hatred to see the world around you. Sad, so sad.
"Message discipline wins elections."
Time will tell, but I have serious doubts that McCain can reinvent himself 2 months before the election. If he had been running for the past 18 months as the maverick, then PERHAPS he could run as an outsider against his own party.
But switching messages at the last minute smacks of desperation and confuses the heck out of the electorate. Looking back through the past 40 years, can anyone find an example of a last minute strategic change that worked? I think of a campaign as akin to piloting an oil tanker, and those big floaters don't turn on a dime.
FILISTRO
My opinion of that poll as taken shortly after Palin & McCain's speeches ?
summed up by the final Q:
"If you were placing a bet today, would you bet that Barack Obama will be elected president? Or, John McCain will be elected president?
40% Barack Obama
55% John McCain
5% Not Sure"
that shows the inherent bias of the timing of the polling done as well as the partyt id/weighting of this polling.
Tampa [& the entire I-4 corridor of FL] should have been 50-50.
So I take this polling for what it is, a insta-poll talking point released for partisan purposes - nothing more since it is so fatally flawed... just food for the beast...
Yes, the dems should take rural votes. And they´ll go to the centre no to the left.
There will be a Bradley effect but not big enough to effect the outcome of the election. It will be lost in all the other effects.
Thanks dcm.
I will say that the Republicans did a poor job of handling the jab at Obama's "community organizing" but I agree with BenJones that it was not an attack on the actual service done as it was an attack on Obama's ascension to the presidency with that as one of his main credentials. It's almost as insignificant as, say, being a small town mayor in terms of making one qualified to be president.
"It's all about culture. Voters want people from their culture, who share common values and who treat them with respect, but are still BETTER than them."
Oh, but they *don't*. They want to fool themselves into thinking that because they are average, that being average is good. And if an average shlub can get into the White House, then by golly, maybe they can too!
"This Bush is stupid meme has really gotten out of hand."
Bush is not stupid. He's average. That's about it.
Is that what people want in their president? Average? What a great message for our kids.
"McCain went to the Naval academy, an elite academic institutions, and he also received post graduate education at the war college."
John McCain finished 894th of 899 in his class. He was a poor student with a bad attitude, and had his last name been something other than "McCain", we'd likely be having a very different argument than this one.
His military record is similarly unimpressive. He slid by.
Palin is the same -- or worse.
Now, I wouldn't care about this if the GOP weren't using it as part of their bullshit "culture war". I am NOT going to be made to feel bad because of my intelligence or education, nor am I going to be guilted into voting for mediocrity as if that were some sort of selling point.
Filistro--Max Blumenthal of Pollster has excellent analysis of that SurveyUSA poll done in Florida. He explained why the poll was not really a good measure--the questions were full of pundit like formulations and not really constructed in a form to gauge support for the ticket.
And the polls didn´t take the young people, this benefits Obama.
In all the polls in Ohio for example, the young people weren´t polled.
I_Am_Legend
I've looked at the data pretty closely. Controlling for political donations through churches, which shouldn't rightfully count as "charitable," the data show that conservatives are consistently less charitable than any other group.
Like most Bush/McCain supporters, you seem to be full of anger and sarcasm. No wonder. Anger and sarcasm are all Bush and McCain supporters have left after eight years of their failed policies have laid the emptiness of the Republican agenda bare. Eight years of this nonsense is enough. It's time for a change.
Bush/Cheney/McCain/Palin
Four fat, opulent pigs rolling in an oil slick under a oil derrick in the sands of a terrorist state.
That is what I think of when I imagine 4 more years of the same failed policies.
In the pocket of rouge states--politics corrupted by big oil--that damages our economy and the America I love.
Obama-Biden 2008
Change our energy policy now.
bullshit "culture war"?
I guess Michael Newdow is just a figment of our imagination.
Palin will do "Interviews?" On both Fox and Rush Limbaugh.
The McCain campaign and Palin's speechwriters will give both Fox and Rush, the question they want them to ask Sarah Palin for the 'Test?" on the substanative questions.
Sarah Palin will take this bogus test, and ace it!
Fox and Rush, will both say, Look Sarah Palin is a master, she is great, man she aced our tests. Look!
And they will play the "Interviews" again and again and again. And they will say, who said Sarah Palin can't do interviews.
Folks, if you have not figured this out yet, you have not been thinking hard enough, long enough.
Wanna bet on this?
This is how conservatives win folks!
They cheat! Just like Bush Jr cheated in the Air Force, and he and Cheney cheated on the Iraq war CIA fabricated data, just like Bush Jr cheated to get into Harvard, and cheated to barely pass, with daddy writing big checks to Harvard Endowment fund.
Folks conservatives cheat, BUT they win in the end! We will lose!
Palin: "Being a small town mayor is kind of like being a community organizer, except you have actual responsiblities."
Republicans: "Zero! Zero! Zero!"
They did mock community service. Anybody who's volunteered for charity or worked in politics knows how hard and thankless those jobs are. It didn't make me angry. I thought it was shameful and embarassing, and it certainly affected my vote.
I will say that the Republicans did a poor job of handling the jab at Obama's "community organizing" but I agree with BenJones that it was not an attack on the actual service done as it was an attack on Obama's ascension to the presidency with that as one of his main credentials.
This is nonsense. Palin's words were clear: she doesn't believe community organizers have "actual responsibilities." It was a snide, sneering remark which insulted those who've dedicated their careers to this valuable service. It's the same sort of snide, sneering insult we're used to out of Bush and McCain supporters. It's the same Bush style rhetoric which is tearing our country apart. It's time for something new.
Natalie, and what do you vote?
oops I think I poste about a different SurveyUSA poll. But still Max Blumenthal had good anlysis early this week about reactions to the conventions and polling.
As for the culture and small towns values debate. Yesterday the Daily Show pretty much summarized what this is all about:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=184114&title=the-best-f#king-news-team-ever
Republicans say Sarah Palin is qualified because she is a Born Again Christian. She is a Hockey Mom. She is a moose hunter. She appeals to rural small town. She is a true Conservative.
I'll admit that I'm biased (I lean Democrat most of the time), but I try to judge fairly. I don't think GOP candidates tend to give good speeches, with rare exception, Reagan for example. Giving a good speech doesn't make Obama or Palin for that matter any more qualified and likely to be good at their job and giving a bad one doesn't mean you're any less competent or likely to succeed, but... this poll of voters in Florida about McCain's speech. Did they see the same speech I saw? That speech was terrible, awful. Yes, it made McCain out to be heroic and yes the crowd was cheering at the end, but with the exception of the biography stuff it was written poorly and delivered even worse. It was really awful and I can't resolve how either everyone' wrong and I'm right or I'm wrong and everyone else is right. That speech in no way gave me the impression that John McCain has a clue. I don't get it.
"it was not an attack on the actual service done"
Yes it was.
Go back and watch Noun-Verb 9/11's speech: he says about Obama...
'He worked as a community organizer.'
*pause*
*starts laughing*
'What?'
*continues laughing*
*neanderthal torch-and-pitchfork crowd starts laughing*
*Mayor McCheese continues laughing*
*crowd starts chanting 'ZERO! ZERO! ZERO!'
This is what America is about?!
"as it was an attack on Obama's ascension to the presidency with that as one of his main credentials."
That is NOT one of his main credentials. It was NEVER one of his main credentials. It was cherry-picked out of his resume so it could be mocked.
Obama was a community organizer OVER 20 YEARS AGO.
You are a liar from a party full of liars.
"Republicans say Sarah Palin is qualified because she is a Born Again Christian. She is a Hockey Mom. She is a moose hunter. She appeals to rural small town. She is a true Conservative."
If you were arrested by the police and charged with a crime you didn't commit, would you choose a lawyer to defend yourself because she was a hockey mom who hunted moose?
But McCain MUST win in Florida.
It´s normal his lead in this state.
If McCain lose Florida, he would lost the election.
The same as Ohio.
Baz744,
I call bullshit on that. You are throwing out some real BS if you claim to have data on charitable giving by conservatives and non-conservatives. Tell it to somebody else or provide a link to something (and reliable).
I'm not angry. Sarcastic maybe. But I'm tired of people hollering and whining about how bad things have been and how ridiculous this country is because we still have some conservative ideals in our political framework.
Religous fanatics have no right to tell people how to live their lives, but liberal fanatics have no right to impose their beliefs either.
http://psalm145.blogspot.com/2007/04/charitable-giving-increases.html
This is a link for an article about an Arthur Brooks book that examines charitable giving. It finds that conservatives give TWICE the average to charity to liberals every year, despite the fact that liberals make slightly more. The key difference seems to be religious belief.
GEOFF
Nate is neither 'right on wrong' on where the race stands at this moment because he does not collect the data. Nate uses data supplied by others who are either 'right or wrong' depending on their models & methodology.
Nate merely attempts to interpret the data as supplied and account for 'noise' & other distortions as inputs for his predictive analysis.
There remains MOE & 'house effects' and other constraints on the quatitative analysis of the data provided.
But 'right or wrong' is entirely subjective - not logically objective since the accuracy of the data sources cannot be determined at this point in time.
However, some 'guesses' are inherently better than others, but an averaging of the polls combined with weightings & trends is even better...
"My best understanding seems to be that Obama spent time trying to registrar voters and rouse protests,"
Ben, don't know where you got that but it is hogwash.
From Time:
Obama was working for a group of churches that were concerned about their parishioners, many of whom had been laid off when the steel mills closed on the south side of Chicago. They hired Obama to help those stunned people recover and get the services they needed--job training, help with housing and so forth--from the local government. It was, dare I say it, the Lord's work--the sort of mission Jesus preached
Interesting. Well, the tracking polls still haven't shown McCain leading, but there's a good chance they will. If they do, then we've got ourselves a race.
Guess we'll have to wait a day or two.
I am finished with the Palin thing, too. I watched that speech with those carefully worded one-liner snarks. I watched that crowd acting like rabid dogs.
I watched video of a different evangelical groups taped during that speech as they watched it on TVs. They lapped it up. When asked questions, they answered, "She's a Christian!" with near-awe in their voices.
I watched.
And I remembered a series of books I read called "Left Behind". For the first time I actually believed such a thing could happen.
I watched. Did you?
EVE
so true.
maybe they should add a subliminal tagline to the Obama campaign adds...
WWJD ???
drop bombs on Vietnamese citizens or wotk as a community organizer ?
I_Am_Legend
Meh. You don't have to believe me if you don't want to. But the fact is, Bush/McCain conservatives have consistently proven to be the least charitable group.
That you should doubt that after last week's convention display, in which Bush/McCain conservatives laughed at service, and sneered at community organizing shows your own disconnect from reality. Conservatives hold the very notion of charity in contempt.
I'm sorry if reality makes you angry. Bush/McCain conservatives seem to have an allergy to reality. But facts are facts. If conservatives are so charitable, why did they laugh at charity at their convention?
Seems like we got a bunch of new liberal posters here today *sigh*. Oh well, such is life. Geoff, I'm a conservative. The Zogby Interactive polls this cycle are junk. They have Obama winning SC, AZ, and NC. Do you really believe them?
"But McCain MUST win in Florida.
It´s normal his lead in this state.
If McCain lose Florida, he would lost the election.
The same as Ohio."
It's worse than that. He has to win both of those state (though that's not hard, Florida is likely his and Ohio is a sucker bet for Democrats). He also has to win Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, all of which are not safely his at the moment.
More for Ben Jones:
"Catholic Democrats is expressing surprise and shock that Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's acceptance speech tonight mocked her opponent's work in the 1980s for the Catholic Campaign for Human Development. She belittled Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's experience as a community organizer in Catholic parishes on the South Side of Chicago, work he undertook instead of pursuing a lucrative career on Wall Street. In her acceptance speech, Ms. Palin said, "I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except that you have actual responsibilities." Community organizing is at the heart of Catholic Social Teaching to end poverty and promote social justice."
Baz744,
Some quick reading for you.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/conservatives_more_liberal_giv.html
Republicans give more than Dems, but they mock Obama for being a community organizer.
Which party should I give to?
I'll give to the party that respects giving to the community.
Obama-Bidden 2008
Caring for the community. Caring for America.
Charity is socialism!
I said on the night of Saint Sarah's speech that the Republicans would rue the day they mocked community service. I stand by it.
Another great analogy would be basketball and the NBA 07 playoffs - Suns vs. Spurs.
When Robert Horry completely checked Steve Nash into the scorer's table, Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw left the bench to quickly protect their player and probably start something with the other team.
In the end, Horry, Stoudemire and Diaw got suspended, but the damage had been done and the Suns were without their 2nd best player and 6th man in the all important Game 6.
They wound up losing the series. And the rest is history.
Dario, I'm a left-leaning moderate. I've always liked McCain. I found his speech on Thursday refeshingly mature and sincere. I like Obama but was persuadeable until Wednesday night. Palin was a deal-breaker for me. I'm just as happy to see a woman on a national ticket as anybody else, but she turned me off. I may not be representative of the electorate at large, but I am the kind of voter Palin should be trying to persuade. She blew it.
/23-year-old, educated, cell-phone only voter from rural Florida
Sean is completely wrong. His strategy is the same strategy Bob "Ultimate Loser" Shrum had for John Kerry. When someone hits you, you hit back, harder. Not for being unprepared, or just a small-state governor, because that has no effect on the campaign, that's the punch they're looking for.
No, we go after her for being a liar. A liar about Obama, a liar about earmarks, a liar about Troopergate. Make her defend herself on those terms. Make McCain defend her on those terms. We have to make her not intellectually unfit to be President (so was Bush and the idiots voted for him), but morally unfit. Let McCain and Palin play defense while we talk about how they have no plan to help anybody except the already rich and the religious fundamentalists who adore her.
The community organizer stuff pissed me off, and I think Team Obama has missed a golden opportunity to come back with "Jesus Christ was a community organizer. Pontius Pilate was a governor."
Not only that, but the Team Obama should have framed it as an attack on every church and service organization in America, and an example of the Republicans' thinking that City Hall is the answer to every problem. Now it's too late. Team Obama really isn't too quick on the draw.
In any case, the Democrats need to get out of aggrieved victim mode and start hitting first. Focus test some insults, and start using them. And then stick with 'em. Shake the other side up for a change, and don't worry about whether it's fair or not.
From James Fallows at The Atlantic, on community organizing and why it play badly:
As mentioned before, Sarah Palin's speech was heavy on the mockery of Obama, including his self-evidently ludicrous role as a "community organizer." As a data point, I received this email just now from someone whose identity I know -- in his late 20s, religious, works in the US national security establishment, not necessarily part of the liberal base. He makes a point that rings true to me, about the generational as opposed to strictly partisan implications of the mocking pose:
I have been following the conventions. I think the GOP ridiculing of the Obama's "community organizer" experience will resonate poorly with many in the under-35 crowd. If they continue that attack line they will likely lose a large number of young voters (which they are struggling with anyways). Conservative and liberal Generation X/Y and millennials generally respect those who sacrifice who devote careers to community service. In my mind the GOP showed the real elitism on this particular issue. We'll see if they keep this up but it really riled me up.
You go too far DCM. McCain honorably served this country, which at that time meant dropping bombs on the Communist dictatorship of North Vietnam. I don't know you, but I don't think you did something taking the same amount of courage. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
I mean, geez, Jon Stewart is getting the best lines off. Is there no one in the entire Democratic Party with a sense of humor who can come up with some lines for Team Obama? Or maybe he just doesn't want to win the election, because he doesn't believe in himself.
Yup, maybe that's the problem. Oh well, there I go again.
SMITTY
I also was appalled by Palin's snide speech as well as her 'reading' the same Bush speech punchlines at every photo op since.
But I was dismayed yesterday when I spoke to one of my brothers who lives in SD now. He is a die-hard GOPer but claimed he was no fan of McCain & was giving Obama some consideration. But he & his wife loved Palin - thought she was great & super-smart feminist in that speech...
I asked, what part was she great in ? They liked the pitbull/lipstick & snark on the community organizer.
I was appalled, but apparently in small towns for right-leaning base like they are the speech was red meat. They like their buffalo burgers in SD [like moose probably]. I never really expected them to vote for Obama - but I was dismayed that it was Palin that pushed them back to their GOP home...
so sad but that tactic does consolidate the base for the right...
I just hope that Palin pushes the real independents to the left or leaves them in play...
I mean, health care & social security & all the other issues that the GOPers are set against except for love of WAR & deficits...
Barry: Damned straight, and that's what Obama did today.
The GOP babies are already whining about it him going after poor, poor Sarah for lying. *sniff*
Raging Abe Simpson and His Grumbling Grandson in "The Curse of the Flying Hellfish"
Is John McCain Monty Burns or Abe Simpson.
A Hunka Hunka Burns in Love
Is John McCain Monty Burns and Sarah Palin is the Gloria Woman.
Thanks Natalie, you have the same age as me.
I don´t think Palin was the perfect figure of the woman vote.
She´s a strong conservative and the middle woman are liberal (less liberal). But the Palin profile isn´t the same as the most of American woman.
Charity is something Jesus would do and Evangelical voters appreciate.
What a paradox--mocking charity and good will.
Why does she want to lead America?
Does Palin want to give to America?
Probably not--just give more tax breaks to the wealthy--pay more money to big OIL--and mock people all over America that care about their local communities.
Obama-Biden 2008. Proud to serve their communities and America.
McCain honorably served this country, which at that time meant dropping bombs on the Communist dictatorship of North Vietnam.
Let's see. They called him "Ace McCain" because he destroyed five American aircraft. He was shot down after disobeying a direct order to abort his mission. In general, he was such a screwup that he was passed over for promotion more than once, and was probably saved from outright dismissal because he had a famous father.
And when he was in Vietnam, he produced propaganda for the enemy. Where is the Democratic swift boat operation when we need it? Oh, and the guy is unhinged. Plenty of Republicans are on the record saying so.
Baz744,
I proved you to be a damned liar. Now what do you have to say for yourself? Huh?
Say it. Conservatives are more charitable givers than liberals in every measurable way. The data proves it.
Pluckon would like this.
Ok oct, we get it. You're voting Obama/Biden. Now shut up and contribute something besides your endless rhetoric that essentially says nothing.
There are a lot of people here saying Obama and Biden are not hitting back on the community organizer thing and they are wrong. Just today in Indiana he went hard after that . Really hard hitting. He does not mock he just reveals what the Republican strategy is and lays out a policy that address the failure of the administration.
I guess some here want Obama to release ads saying things like that but they are making the case where it counts: in the states in the local media. Just because CNN does not cover it or the blogs don't post it does not mean it is not happening.
I also think that there is a different from hitting back and going all out and getting engaged by the distraction. Obama and Biden are taking the mocking and using it to hit back while staying on their message. This is NOT a Shrum ticket
JAMES
the point was "What Would Jesus Do" ?
would Christ drop bombs or take a religious deferment & be a community organizer ?
try checking your bible for the answer...
I made no remark about whether McCain was doing his duty, my point was & is 'WWJD' ???
to a true christian, the answer is obvious...
[besides the adultery & lies, et al]
I think the republican's mocked the "community organizing," because people DON'T hear community organizing=charitable work. I'm sure I was being simplistic Eve, I bet Obama did some good work as a community organizer. But my main point was I think his work was political in nature, which isn't bad, but it's not not soup kitchens and homeless shelters we're talking about here. No one would call Jesus a community organizer.
pluckon,
As you undoubtedly know, McCain refused early release. This man has more courage in him than most people dream about. You can belittle his military record, you can disagree with his views, but never doubt his love of this country and his honor.
James--
perhaps you dont see the Irony.
OIL = TERRORISTS
McCain = Bush
Our economy is in the tank. Charity and giving to the community is the fabric of many folks, including myself.
Isnt this about improving our nation and not bringing it down with OIL and slams against charity and community service.
Politicians serve. Check it out James.
Not all hockey agitators are goons.
One of the best was Esa Tikkanen, who could not only trash talk in at least three languages (often speaking all of them at the same time) while spearing you, but then take the puck down to the other end of the rink and score. He was on five Stanley Cup winning teams.
If he can continue to manage his enthusiasm like he did today, Joe Biden, like Tikki, will just keep on cross-checking the hockey mom from now to election day.
Dear lat,
Obmama's community organizer gig is all he has done. You may mention his US Senate experience 174 days--you can't even become a McDonald's manager in 174 days. What else has he done besides coke and booze in his earlier days. His resume is rather void from this period to the present. Oh, he did beat Hillary!!!!
"As you undoubtedly know, McCain refused early release."
He was SUPPOSED to refuse early release. It is part of the CODE OF CONDUCT.
Saying this makes him a hero is demeaning to all the other people who did the exact same thing and haven't tried to exploit it so he can be given the White House on a silver platter.
"You can belittle his military record, you can disagree with his views, but never doubt his love of this country and his honor."
I never doubted it until this campaign. His nasty, smear-filled campaign has besmirched his honor, and his pick of Sarah Palin proves he cares more about winning than what is good for the country.
P.S. Don't tell other people how to post -- this isn't Sarah Palin's Alaska.
Yes, DCM, yes.
Focus groups are not usually that useful, but I saw one CNN did with 8 Michigan Women, all registered Independent between the ages of 30-50, it was really interesting. A couple were extremely turned off by Palin, went from Lean Obama, to big time for Obama, but a couple were also Lean McCain and picking a woman seemed to seal the deal for him. To me it gave a good sense of what's going on out there. You probably have plenty of women that couldn't be more turned off by McCain/Palin because of the assumption the GOP is making that women will flip simply because there's a woman on their ticket, even if she's not qualified or has views diametrically opposed to their own, but there's also a large group who see a strong woman they like and is refreshing to them and they see that's what I'm talking about. Hard to say which one there's more of. For the moment, it looks like maybe the latter, however disappointing.
JOSEPH
you are a pathetic liar for posting such nonsense trash as that last one claimnig Obama has 174 days of senate experience.
phool, take you talking point lies elsewhere
Oh noes! The "Community Organizer" lobby is pissed! Look out!
Amen to Joseph.
So far, Obama's biggest success is beating out Hillary for the nomination. Some achievement. I know tons of Republicans who registered as Democrats for the primaries just to vote against her because she's that hated. Says more about anti-Hillary sentiment than pro-Obama sentiment.
Running a successful primary campaign is not an accomplishment worthy of putting one in the White House.
"Draper as an agitator? Um ... uh ... maybe you are not as familiar with Wings rosters as I might have guessed. There are several other players they've had who've fit that description much better. (Pat Verbeek, for example.)"
I have to agree that Draper isn't really an agitator. Verbeek perhaps, but the real analogy is Kirk Maltby. He gets in guy's faces and annoys the crap out of them while rarely taking a penalty. Whether this analogy of Palin as agitator really works is another question...
oct,
You truly have your Obama talking points out tonight don't you. No Republican has clashed more with George W. Bush than John McCain. Yeah next you'll pull out the whole "90%" thing but Obama voted with Bush something like 85% because almost all votes in the Senate are unanimous or close to it.
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