Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Beehive State, Utah.
SUNSET SANDSTONE RED, Utah projects as John McCain’s safest state in 2008. It was the number one Bush margin state in 2004, and set the baseline for the most conservative state in the Likert scale. 57 percent of voters identified as Republicans in 2004 (the most) and only 19 percent identified as Democrats (2d lowest). Though Democrats are making inroads all over the Mountain West, Utah is not going to yield any time soon. Republicans hold the statewide offices as well as a 3-1 edge in state legislature representation. Both Senators (neither up for re-election) are Republican, and two of the three Congressmen are Republicans as well. Only Jim Matheson, a popular House Member who survived Salt Lake redistricting after the 2000 census, represents Democrats at the federal level.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
When you start out with a 3-1 edge in R to D self-identification, you’re only going to lose if you lose every state. Utah, of course, is heavily Mormon/LDS, which tracks with Republican voting. McCain almost equaled Obama in fundraising per capita, and low unemployment indicates voters here may be more satisfied relative to other voters on the economic front. Given the current economic crisis, that's a purely relative statement.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama did well in the caucus here in February, but a big part of that was Hillary Clinton's anathema status in the Mountain West over gun control as well as her campaign’s decision to cede the field. Utah has the most youth voters in the country, and the 2d fewest elderly. Ordinarily that would help Obama. Utah is not a high military veteran state, a statistic that would tend to favor Republicans, and it’s fairly well educated, which favors Democrats. Utah also has a fairly high percentage of same-sex households. That’s about the best you can say for Obama’s chances in the demographic and socioeconomic data.
What To Watch For
That's a tough one. Like Rhode Island yesterday, there's basically zero drama in Utah with the presidential and all three House races locked into a clear result, and I can't quite bring myself to feign interest in the NBA with a Utah Jazz reference. Will Barack Obama get 50.6% of the undecideds in Utah? The state is one of the explicit 50-state strategy targets, and some Democratic insiders hated Howard Dean's attempt to send staffers to train on ground activists in every corner of the nation. That, of course, was a long-term strategy, and in Utah might be a multi-decade arc if it happens at all. The bottom line with Utah this year is the way volunteers from the state will fan out into neighboring Nevada and Colorado, two of the most intense battlegrounds of the cycle.
9.30.2008
Road to 270: Utah
@ 12:32 AM
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48 comments
Great post, can't wait to see the new polls coming in the following days.
Utah is probably the last state in the union that will turn blue in a presidential election.
"Utah is probably the last state in the union that will turn blue in a presidential election."
I totally agree. If Utah ever votes for a Democratic president, it'll be preceded by a dark blue nation.
Only Jim Matheson, a popular House Member who survived Salt Lake redistricting after the 2000 census, represents Democrats at the federal level.
That's debatable. He votes with the Republicans a good percentage of the time. I'm actually starting to get really aggravated with him and since he is relatively safe this year will probably write in Mickey Mouse or something.
That's the real interesting thing...Utah/Idaho is not intensely different from Nevada/Colorado in terms of traditional values and voting trends; yet the latter two states are battlegrounds, while the former are the two most reliable amongst the GOPs electoral college tally...
What are the big differences? Well, all three, save Idaho, have relatively large metropolitan areas, and Boise is an emerging (relative) metropolis...
The LDS % is one many might point to as a significant difference, though Nevada and Colorado both have a solid chunk of those subscribing to the Mormon faith.
Nevada and Colorado probably face a bigger immigration "problem" than their more northern counterparts, but there are large pockets of Idaho and Utah where immigration is a significant issue.
Anyone from around these states want to comment on the chief difference?
The way things are going for McCain, Utah may be in play.
Will McCain Re-suspend his Campaign?
Obama 292, McCain 246
I live in Utah and this state will always overwhelmingly vote for a Republican.. No matter what. I think this would be the one state to go red even if the rest of the country went blue.
There was a good article in the Salt Lake Tribune pointing out that Mormon's who vote for the Republican party, who's controlled (to some extent) by Evangelicals, are giving Evangelicals more power, and Evangelicals would have Mormonism become illegal if up to them. I thought that was a good point.
Off-topic, but found it interesting that newsjunkies twitter feed has picked up a number of 538 stories in the last few days. Seems that Nate's profile is definitely continuing to rise.
newsjunkies is useful little news feed to follow
Are you sure about the same-sex household ratio? It doesn't seem possible that Utah would be 8th out of 50 on this one --
Well, dunno about CO but there's just been a general influx of younger, more liberal voters.
There's also the whores and gambling? Can't go a block without either seeing a huge billboard with an ad for a strip club or an ad that's just sexy in nature. Or the corner smut peddlers with their call girl cards, or the newspaper boxes with free call girl magazines...
Uh. Anyway. XD
Vegas and Clark County always go democratic. Always.
Republicans win NV by trying to cut their losses as much as possible in Clark County (and to a lesser extent the Reno area), while running up the numbers in the rural parts (rest of) of the state.
But SO much of the population is in the Vegas area and much of the locals tend to be dems or independents (in those areas) that the state always tends to swing. Except for 1976 it's gone for the winner of the presidential election every time since 1908, and most of the time in the elections before that.
We've now got huge margins of dems over republicans, especially in the 3rd CD.
Go Rocky Anderson.Go get em
Anyone from around these states want to comment on the chief difference?
Mormons. The percentage are in a different scale in Utah with 60% of the population. Mormons vote lock-step Republican to a scary degree.
No idea on Idaho, but I'd bet it is a combination of mormons, white supremacists (up the pan-handle), farmers and ranchers. Boise is rather progressive I hear but is dwarfed population-wise and Idaho is very-very white racially.
Are you sure about the same-sex household ratio? It doesn't seem possible that Utah would be 8th out of 50 on this one --
They are heavily concentrated in Salt Lake City and Park City which are oases of sanity in the ocean of nutbaggery that is the Utah GOP.
Utah is a beautiful state, with Zion and Bryce in particular.
And when it gets too boring, you need only go a few feet west over the Utah-Nevada border and you can gamble, drink, and whore like there's no tomorrow.
No idea on Idaho, but I'd bet it is a combination of mormons, white supremacists (up the pan-handle), farmers and ranchers.
The "white supremacists" in N. Idaho are not statistically significant in any way. They positively do not exist in the numbers that the stereotype would suggest.
They are heavily concentrated in Salt Lake City and Park City which are oases of sanity in the ocean of nutbaggery that is the Utah GOP.
Salt Lake City. An oasis of sanity? You've never been there, have you?
There are culturally diverse pockets there, no doubt. Natural for an area so authoritarian for there to be significant shades of rebellion from the norm...
pleasant-
The distinguishing factors are that Idaho is about 25 percent LDS while CO and NV are less than 10 percent. Second, while Boise is trending more Democratic (e.g., state legislature, mayor), the entire metro area is more suburban and exurb that maintains strong Republican voting patterns thanks to inmigration from rural parts of Idaho and from Orange County, CA types. (In contrast, the author of Big Sort says Colorado is trending blue because the California migrants are from Democratic Los Angeles County). There are also economic factors such as the loss of the Democratic votes associated with unionized blue collar workers in the timber and mining industries, and many of those jobs are now gone.
Funny thing... During the last mayoral election here (Salt Lake), one of the biggest issues amongst the candidates was who was the most pro-gay. Sure, the rest of Utah is pretty red, but Salt Lake has a long tradition of liberal politics.
Having lived in Utah for about 10 years now (Originally from NJ,) I can say with a fair degree of certainty that Utah Dems are rarely, if ever different than their republican counterparts. Poor SLC, they seem to be the exception to this rule and generally have Dems (Real Dems) in office on a Local level.
As for the comment earlier, "Nevada and Colorado both have a solid chunk of those subscribing to the Mormon faith." The big difference to me seems to be they don't live in Utah. 'Utah Mormons' come across as significantly different than anyone of the faith outside of the state. (I was born into the LDS faith, though never practiced it, though my parents tried and took me to meetings, so I had friends and associates of the faith. :)) Conformity is a big deal around here, and I think it reflects in the elections/politics in general.
I currently reside in SLC, and in relation to the rest of the state "oases of sanity" is a fair description. :)
I guess I'm done rambling!
You've gotta love Mormons. They don't drink, smoke, screw around on their wives and they like choirs. What's not to like.
ALSO, the are the only religious Americans that actually UNDERSTAND religion. They know religion is all about a "community of like minded indiivduals, who share a set of values."
Because their religion is so easily PROVABLE to be wrong on one of its major tenants - namely DNA testing has proved that their bs about the first Nations people being related to the lost tribe of Israel is just that ...bs - you've got to know unless they are retards they're just in it for the "shared values" because obviously what they believe isn't even as good a fairy tale as "Fibber McCain, Moose and the quest for Gollum's lost ring."
Speaking of which...John Smith, now where did you put those golden tablets?
Because their religion is so easily PROVABLE to be wrong on one of its major tenants - namely DNA testing has proved that their bs about the first Nations people being related to the lost tribe of Israel is just that ...bs - you've got to know unless they are retards they're just in it for the "shared values" because obviously what they believe isn't even as good a fairy tale as "Fibber McCain, Moose and the quest for Gollum's lost ring."
What a silly thing to say about one religion, that can be said about most, if not all. Asking any religion to introduce 21st moral reasoning, or just plain old reason would shatter any faith, so to try to apply reason to it seems moot. This is why faith is so integral to religion, your not asked to think, just obey. Clearly scientific evidence is only their to test our faith so f*ck DNA! ;)
Also, his name was Joseph, not John :)
pleasant peninsula said...
"The LDS % is one many might point to as a significant difference, though Nevada and Colorado both have a solid chunk of those subscribing to the Mormon faith."
According to Beliefnet, the Morman population of those states in 2004 was as follows:
Utah - 57%
Idaho - 20%
Nevada - 5.9%
Colorado - 2.1%
Rank in % of population is Morman:
Utah - 1st (but going down - was est. 75% in 1990)
Idaho - 2nd
Nevada - 4th
Colorado - 10th
The rest of the top 10 are:
Wyoming - 9.5%
Arizona -5%
Montana - 3.6%
Washington - 3%
Oregon - 3%
New Mexico - 2.3%
Salt Lake City. An oasis of sanity? You've never been there, have you?
I've only lived here for 33 years so I guess I'm still learning about the place.
It's all a matter of comparison I suppose.
I've only lived here for 33 years so I guess I'm still learning about the place.
It's all a matter of comparison I suppose.
I suppose!
Utah's voting problem stems from the fact it is so historically conservative, the democratic voters there feel that their vote won't matter against the majority of voters so they don't even try. Unfortunately there are quite a few democrats in Utah and they probably don't even know they are. Many religions don't favor open discussion and to express views contrary to the church could get you in trouble at least with your local congregation. The result is closet democrats who either don't vote or worse vote their family's/religion's/community's beliefs, instead of their own.
Is there a problem with the Liberal-Conservative Index bar? Seems like it should red (and possibly at the other extreme).
As a proud Utah voter (although for the pas 20 years I have voted from postings overseas), Mormon, African American, and Obama supporter, I would like to put my two cents in. First of all, Utah had a primary election and not a caucus. Secondly, most of the "same sex households" in Utah are college and young adult roommates and not same sex couples. My two sons have lived in Utah (both as college students and working) since graduating from high school and always in various apartments with all male roommates (because it's Utah).
I think Utah Mormons traditionally vote Republican, because it is cultural. This is not the case in the east, such as in Chicago (where I grew up) or in the DC area (where I live when I am in the U.S.), where LDS are generally highly educated/well-paid transplants, converts originally from the east, and minorities (black, Hispanic, and Asian). LDS also tend to congregate around universities and colleges, also not bastians of concervatism.
Utah was a solidly Democratic state until around the 1950s, and then they and most most Mormons bought the anticommunist bug pretty hard. Since then, they have become hardcore Republicans.
That said, I was born in Utah and most of my family in Utah are Democrats. SLC has had some very progressive mayors, so there are oases even in the Deseret.
Ironically, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (NV) is the most successful Mormon politician in US history.
While I agree with the general consensus that Utah is currently the reddest of red states, I don't think it would necessarily be the last red state to fall.
If Mike Huckabee or someone like him were to become the standard bearer of the GOP, Mormons would have some serious re-evaluating to do. In the GOP primaries, Huckabee said some bigoted things about Mormons, and the reality is that if Mitt Romney were not Mormon, he would most likely be the GOP nominee right now.
Evangelical takeover of the GOP has been a trend, and if it continues, Mormons will have to decide whether they want to ally themselves with folks who think they're of the devil.
I moved to Park City a year ago, for the beauty, the climate and the wealth of outdoor activities. And despite the states Red status.
I've kept telling myself I moved here to help dilute the Republican population. One liberal at a time.
I'm a Utahn, born and raised, but moved out East about five years ago. I still have several friends and relatives who live there. My 2 cents:
- Yes, it's true that areas of SLC, like Sugarhouse and the Avenues, are home to the same Teva-wearing, coffee-drinking liberals as those in Denver or Boulder. These areas are "oases of sanity" in the best way for Utah Dems.
- Yes, it's true that the Mormon church's values do line up with the Republican party's platform almost seamlessly, especially when it comes to abortion and same-sex marriage. Surprisingly, despite Utah's beauty and the history of the Church's relocation to Utah ("this is the place"), you do not see a commitment to environmentalism among the members (although Utah does have many environmentalists, including those who moved to the state for its beauty).
- Yes, it's true that Mormon voters are in the majority, and that Mormon values tend to dictate the state agenda. This is frustrating for nonmember residents. It's possible that this frustration could even be harnessed for political action.
- Yes, the Mormon church does discourage open debate and questioning around the values. Mormons often feel guilty and express said guilt when they make a statement that would seem to go against what they've been taught. This is a unique feature of the religion and one that should be taken into account.
- However, this doesn't mean that there aren't individual Mormon people who think for themselves and may even vote Democratically. There are even young hipster Mormons who ride fixies and dig ethnic food, who may feel more loyalty or resonance with their generation than with their church when it comes to politics.
Based on this, I think it's instructive to look at Colorado's changing demographics, as more out-of-staters with East Coast liberal politcs move in and recast the demographics. A similar thing could happen to Utah...
I'd like to second what Liahona said. I'm a lifelong Mormon and Obama volunteer in NY State. East coast Mormons have very strong (relative to our demographics overall as a church) in Boston, NYC, and DC. In all three cities there are large numbers of progressive/Democrat Mormons. The Mormons in CA and AZ are mostly UT transplants or descendants of Mormon pioneers, and carry the mountain time zone viewpoint with them.
Since I grew up in St. George, UT, and my entire extended family still lives between SLC and Provo, I would add that I think the reasons for Utah's extreme redness, despite the demographic indicators mentioned by Sean, are as follows:
*Identification with a hierarchical church means a strong sympathy for order, respect for authority, etc. This has been identified by George Lakoff in his new book "The Political Brain" as a core conservative value. (I think this also helps explain why the Catholic vote swings so much, because Catholics also feel comfortable with a church hierarchy).
*An intense patriotism that accepts Manifest Destiny as a tenet of Mormon theology, in that Mormons believe the US constitution was literally inspired by God. And so the (IMO) pandering/manipulation by conservatives "waving the bloody shirt" goes over very well with this same crowd.
*Total disillusionment with Bill Clinton's marital problems. "Personal lives don't have anything to do with politics" carries zero weight with these people, which helps explain why Clinton came third in Utah, after Perot, in 1992 (the only state where this happened). When Monica broke, it further sealed the deal.
My only question is why does Obama actually raise more money than McCain in Utah? Is it the Sundance crowd simply putting their second homes' zip code on the check? I think that is very telling...Utahns will support the "family values" party with their votes, but not McCain with their money (I'm certain Romney pulled a ton more money out of Utah during the primaries). And, anecdotally, many of the Mormons I went to high school with (I'm 29) that still live in Utah are now shifting away from the Republican party as it's currently constituted. Some say it's not conservative enough and are voting for Barr, but many others are breaking for Obama.
So while Utah won't be purple this year, if Obama can demonstrate to Utahns that you can go to church, raise some cute kids, not cheat on your wife, and still be a Democrat, you might see some movement. Especially, as someone earlier noted, if the evangelicals further corrupt Republican ideology and move it away from true conservatism and closer to Left Behind. Once McCain is defeated, whomever reinvigorates the Republicans (Palin? Jindal? Romney? Paul?) will help determine where Utah heads.
Yes, it's true that the Mormon church's values do line up with the Republican party's platform almost seamlessly, especially when it comes to abortion and same-sex marriage.
The truly odd thing is that LDS scripture is strongly opposed to getting involved in non-defensive wars (see especially Doctrine and Covenants 98). And yet even the Bush Doctrine of preemptive war has failed to loosen the GOP grip on the state. If it's one remaining place in the U.S. that still believes Iraq was about "defending our liberties," it's Utah.
I live in the St George area. I have yet to see a single bumper sticker or yard sign for McCain. I think this is a combination of (a) McCain's winning Utah is a fait accompli and no one's bothering to show any interest, and (b) there is a strong "hold your nose and vote" feeling about McCain, especially for his voting record and the way he treated Romney during the primaries.
Well, it is to bad my previous typing got erased because of user error. I'll try to retrieve it from my head ha ha. Basically, I lived in Utah for over 15 years, returned to my home state of Oregon, best thing I did for myself. I won't say anything bad about Utahians, but there is democratic culture emerging. My daughter and her husband are two of them and I have spoke with many others giving them support. Utah is the reddist state in the Union, but I believe democrats may give them a run for their money. I will be closely watching this state just to see the surprise on the Morom people when they see, even their own may have defected from their own party/religous preference preached. So much talk about battle ground states ohio/florida, but if Utah ever turned blue, it would be a done deal and that would mean every state in the union would have turned blue. so I'll be watching you Utah ;)
The differences between Colorado/Nevada and Utah/Idaho are not that hard to parse, actually. Utah is fairly clear: Socially conservative, traditionalist Mormons. That's not everybody, but they are a supermajority in the state, and just like any place where most people have so much in common, it's an echo chamber. Much like Sean said, it's the opposite number to the overwhelmingly Catholic state of Rhode Island in this way.
Southern Idaho is very nearly as heavily Mormon as Utah proper: The majority of churchgoers south of Boise and Idaho Falls are Mormons. Idaho is the only state in the country outside Utah in which the largest single denomination is Mormon; they outnumber Catholics, Methodists and Baptists alike.
Northern Idaho has a very famous but essentially negligible neo-Nazi population. In reality the answer is much simpler: It has a lot in common with individualistic, pro-gun, anti-immigrant rural/small town areas of Oregon, Washington, and Montana -- which surround it on two sides. Quite simply, these are people who want the government to stay out of their lives as much as possible. They're descended from people who moved to northern Idaho so they could live that kind of life, and it's what they value.
Contrast this with Nevada and Colorado, and the differences are stark, despite the fact that these states seem to be associated in other people's minds: Both Colorado and Nevada have large metropolises that dominate state politics, have witnessed much larger waves of immigration from California, the Northeast, and Midwest, and have much higher percentages of Catholics -- largely Hispanics, many of them still Spanish-speaking. Culturally, Nevada and (especially) Colorado have much more in common with Oregon & Washington than they do with Idaho and Utah -- minorities of Mormons, large, liberal metropolises set far from their Mormon neighbors, and rapidly-growing moderate tourist areas where Democrats do well because church-going is low and George Bush is unpopular.
I live in SLC. Saw an Obama ad on tv this morning for the first time in the general election. It was on health care, a positive ad.
Obama signs everywhere in Salt Lake City.
Utah is a great place to raise a family, great national parks but it's a bummer there's no state lottery and you can't buy wine at the grocery store.
To echo the above sentiment. Essentially, the northern part of the Salt Lake valley is very much a Dem territory, while down south, which are usually considered the subburbs of Salt Lake, are your typical red areas.
I should note that the LDS population is trending down hard. Right now, it's at a shade below 60%, but the number growing downward day by day due to the influx of folks from east and west.
To that point, once the stranglehold on the valley is broken, the rest will fall into place, I suspect.
As far as Obama outraising McCain, it could be, though indirectly, a result of Obama cancelling a campaign event in SLC due to the death of Pres. Gordon Hinckley. He felt it was inappropriate to hold a rally in the wake of something that folks would feel statewide. I'm sure that earned him some points.
Obama spending money here could shake things loose for the future. McCain may carry this state by double digits, but it won't be the shellacking Kerry took in '04.
Some in Utah are upset that McCain did not pick Romney as VP. Don't know if that means they'll stay home on election day.
Utah is a great place to raise a family
If your LDS, or if you wanna live in a bubble, sure. If you want your kid to have a normal childhood there are billions of better places to raise them. Most importantly, Utah public schools are garbage.
Liquor laws are being evaluated right now, and while it wont mean the end of state controlled liquor stores, (Private liquor stores don't exist.) The LDS church made a statement basically saying that people should be able to agree on "laws and regulations that allow individual freedom of choice while preserving Utah's proven positive health and safety record on limiting the tragic consequences of overconsumption of alcohol." currently they are evaluating the "private club" laws, which hampers a lot of tourist income, and alienates tourists from these establishments in general. So hopefully one day we will see things aside from beer in grocery stores.
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/market_news/article.jsp?content=D9398GKO2#adSkip
I've lived in Utah nearly my whole life after being born and raised in San Francisco (which I still consider my hometown), I'm an active member of the dominant faith, and I've got an Obama sign in my window (I'm afraid it'll get stolen if I put it out on the lawn). I second many of the comments above and don't really have much to add, other than this:
Many active LDS were strongly supporting Mitt Romney's bid and were demoralized at his showing in the primaries. I think many of them will end up holding their noses and voting for McCain for various reasons (tradition, blind partisanship, low info voters, etc), but had Huckabee made it past McCain in the primaries, at least one Dan Jones poll predicted Utah would go blue. It could happen...
Also, unlike Colorado and Nevada, Utah's net-migration of outsiders, while not LDS in large numbers like years pase, seem to be of a similar ideological bent and are attracted to the state for that reason. I've talked to a few liberal newcomers and most told me they dreaded coming here, and wouldn't have moved here if they could have found a job anywhere else.
My 2 cents
I'm LDS CA transplant now living in UT and an Obama supporter. I also dreaded the cultural/social aspect of my move. One thing I want to make clear is that there isn't any specific LDS doctrine that dictates an individuals political preference, obviously there are political ideals from each parties platform that seem tend to line up better with a parties platform versus another's, however in the case of the LDS member I believe there are competing values which some have clinged to a conservative stance on in UT while in other parts of the nation, faithful LDS have reconciled a more liberal view. The two views that are the easiest to describe are that of free agency versus morality. Many in UT side with morality over free agency while a growing number of progressive LDS members who have come to the realization that in order to live with a growing diverse population, a stronger emphasis on free agency as public policy is needed, relegating morality to more of an individual endeavor. As for the idiot that made the DNA comment, maybe you should actually read the Book of Mormon before making uniformed inflammatory comments on topics you have no clue on…… (i.e. of course there is no DNA evidence, that civilization was DESTROYED!!!, moron….)
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