9.26.2008

Presidential Debate Post-Mortem: Live From Oxford

1:49 CDT: [Sean] Late update from the road... Chris Matthews doesn't like noogies.

The Birdcage - BrettMarty.com

11:21 CDT: More instapolling: SurveyUSA has Californians giving the debate to Obama 53-30, Washingtonians to McCain 40-38. McCain won indies in Washington, lost them in Cali. From the internals: in both states, voters thought Jim Lehrer was exceptionally fair, wanted more discussion about the economy, thought McCain looked tired, thought Obama looked Presidential.

11:16 CDT: [Sean] Well, Brett and I haven't gotten in the car and driven hundreds of miles in, what, at least half a day? So we're headed out. What to expect in the next week for On the Road... a bit of a slowdown. We'll cover Missouri with a few posts, and we'll liveblog from Washington University in my hometown of St. Louis next week. Then a frenzied month in the midwest and east covering battlegrounds from the road. We're gonna give Chris Matthews a noogie on the way out. Thanks for sharing the night with us, I'll let Nate wrap up with any final comments.

Debate Reactions - BrettMarty.com

10:53 CDT: [Sean] Nate's right about that, and I'd only add that if people were especially tuned into the content they were tuned into the economic content in the first half of the debate given that we're in a big crisis.

10:49 CDT: [Nate] Really, I think a lot of pundits go about watching the debate in the wrong way. Namely, they're paying too much attention to it. That's not how most people watch the debate. They're talking with friends, taking care of their kids, drinking a beer, flipping channels, surfing the Internet. I think what those people saw is that Obama looked good, he sounded good and forceful, he spoke directly to the middle class in the first 20 minutes, and he probably had the best individual moment of the night on Iraq. And by the time that McCain woke up, they had fallen asleep or had flipped over to the White Sox game.

10:47 CDT:
[Sean] Did anyone see the Pat Buchanan comments just now? As he spoke, they showed McCain replying to a question in a large window box next to Buchanan. McCain was silent, and so you could only get body language. He looked angry as hell. That's my dead horse. Folks should watch this thing again, silently, and just observe the body language of these two candidates. That's the big takeaway for me. The always-smart Eugene Robinson agrees.

Colbert '08 - BrettMarty.com

10:36 CDT: [Sean] The two debates in my memory bank that one candidate just destroyed the other were the first Mondale-Reagan debate and the Gore-Kemp debate. But Reagan won the election, huge. Another big win was the first Kerry-Bush debate, but Kerry didn't win the election either. So I agree that Obama won, I think the "you were wrong" moment was the most memorable moment, but I'm not sure anything really happened tonight. It was more of what didn't happen.

10:31 CDT: [Nate] CNN/Opinion Research telephone poll went to Obama. Hearing that Luntz and GQR focus groups went to Obama. Yes, I'm beating this horse to death.

Students for McCain - BrettMarty.com

10:28 CDT: [Sean] This campus seems pretty nice. Wish we could stay and see it a little more. Oh well.

10:24 CDT: [Sean] Another thing about Biden is he can come on TV after these presidential debates and be a surrogate, and the various networks have to cover it -- he's the VP nominee. You will not see Sarah Palin doing the same thing once.

10:14 CDT: [Nate] OK, here's that link to that CBS news poll. And it wasn't 500 independents -- it was 500 uncommitted voters. I would say, just from my own point of view, that Obama didn't win by anything like a 2:1 margin, but that's partly because I was so pleased with his first 45 minuets that he raised my expectations for the last 45, when McCain seemed almost literally to wake up.

Miss Obama - BrettMarty.com

10:13 CDT: [Sean] Richard Wolffe made a strong point. McCain made a series of declarative statements "you don't understand" and then Obama came back with fluency in foreign policy. If you consider that "You Don't Understand"/demonstration-of-understanding-in-reply template lifted up and placed onto next week's Biden-Palin debate, where if you imagine Biden saying it to Palin and Palin trying to respond, it's clear it works less well when a guy is more than holding his own.

10:10 CDT: [Nate] It doesn't appear to be on the web yet, but several commentators point to a CBS News poll of 500 independents gave the debate to Obama 40-22, with 38 percent declaring it a tie. Beware, however, because the reaction in these instant polls doesn't always match the movmenet in the horse race polls in the proceeding days.

10:01 CDT:
[Nate] Independents in the MediaCurves focus group gave the debate to Obama 61-39. They also think he won every individual segment. Republicans gave the debate to McCain 90-10, Democrats to Obama 93-7.

9:55 CDT:
[Nate] Obama moved up 3 points in the Iowa Electronic Markets, but lost 3 points on Intrade. Given the funny business we've seen on Intrade lately, you'll know which of those two indicators I'd tend to trust.

9:52 CDT:
[Sean] When you think back about the debate and the big moments, I think the "You were wrong" moment and the McCain getting angry about negotiating with dictators are the two that stand out.

Full Court Press - BrettMarty.com

9:50 CDT: [Nate] Alex Castellanos says it was a tie, and that a tie goes to the candidate who is town in the polls. I don't see how that makes any sense. Besides, I think Begala is right that Obama's confrontation of McCain on Iraq was the moment of the night -- and the one that likely breaks the tie.

9:45 CDT:
[Sean] First reaction. On the "looking presidential" front, Obama clearly seemed calm, poised, knowledgeable. McCain had a couple of angry moments. Obama looked at McCain and seemed comfortable engaging with McCain. Obama looked into the camera. McCain looked into the camera but his body language was worse, and him not looking at Obama definitely didn't make him come across as confident.

Keep Legal - BrettMarty.com

294 comments

Trevor said...

NC is flipping on Intrade? Wow...it's hard to picture that just because the M+20 poll is still fresh in my mind. It's not close to a tipping point anyway.

However, Obama shored up the VA/CO/NH/PA/MI path today and may have 286 EVs in the bag now.

Bill P. said...

Spot on, torrentprime. Nice post.

fred said...

This is a 300 plus EV election now. FL, NC, VA, CO, NM might all go blue.

Mason said...

This CNN focus group sucks. The tracker lines show no movement because they didn't run it long enough for the reactions to register.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

You are tight Jen---don't know what to make of her----she can't be as "dumb" (wish I could come up with a less offensive word)as she looks in these interviews.

I am getting to the point where I feel sorry for her---that she has been put in this position----it is almost cruel---but then again she could have said no.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

That's right Jen---not tight. LOL

Bill P. said...

It would be nice to have a solid enough victory to claim a mandate, and - as an American - I mean that for either candidate. As a Democrat, of course, I would like it to be Obama, and I think it will.

Please, conservatives, if and when Obama becomes president, please, please, for the sake of the country, please don't start attacking him right out of the gate. Be patriots. Support your President and wish him well. Don't pull the garbage you did with Clinton. Give the man a chance, for the good of America. Please.

eve said...

phil, I also thought the spending freeze bit was terrible for McCain. No spending increase except for military and Veterans. What? That sounds so 1970.

sporcupine said...

McCain didn't improve fundamental perceptions. He's a maverick on earmarks and experienced on national security, and kind of snide.

Obama achieved an uptick on national security. He didn't look young or soft. Since the false rap says that's his problem, he gained.

If he'd verbally slammed back at McCain just once, with visible anger, I'd say he'd won solidly.
As it is, Obama won by a slim margin tonight.

Only, back to the fundamentals. Obama's ahead. He's seen as strong on the economy, and he narrowed McCain's lead on national security. This battle was close, but his lead in the war just got stronger.

fred said...

Palin's only shot is pity. She does not follow the news, and knows less than most posters here. I a shyocked a gov could know so little.

Mason said...

That GOP kitchen sucks.

If you have a stainless microwave/range, get a stainless fridge. How tacky.

Michael said...

Ed posted:

"So what will be McCain's next Hail Mary maneuver?

Ready for the ugly 527 ads?"

Yep. They will trot out all kinds of coded racist imagery and lies.

For those who are frustrated that Obama didn't hit McCain on funding for veterans, let's keep in mind that one of the things debates and stuff like convention speeches do is provide the opposition with text to pore through and use in stump speeches. Expect Obama and Biden to pounce on that one during the following week and get news coverage of it.

Ed said...

How many of the Sunday shows will Joe Lieberman or Miss Lindsey Graham be on calling Obama naive?

Bill P. said...

McCain not even deigning to look at Obama was a huge mistake. It was really nasty, and could (though not by me) be interpreted as racially motivated.

Matador said...

I thought the debate was roughly a tie (slight edge McCain), but expect a strong movement in the polls McCain's way. The debate replaces his disastrous "suspension" boondoggle in the news cycle. Holding his own puts him on equal footing again and he successfully resets.

Bill P. said...

Um, when 59% of independents believe you lost a debate, you did not 'reset' your numbers. Except to make them worse.

I am a Fractal said...

walk away item:

How did McCain look in his $5,500 worth of makeup?

McCain declared that he would be cutting every single thing in government except the military and "maybe a couple select emergency programs." "because of the economic emergency"

is he totally insane? does he want feudalism now? he makes bush look like dennis Kucinich.

he lied about veterans.. he doesn't take care of vets. he was against the GI bill, because it was "too generous." then he took credit for it as it passed without his vote.

Jen said...

"Palin's only shot is pity. She does not follow the news, and knows less than most posters here. I a shyocked a gov could know so little."

Deukmeijan (sp?) knew about as much, but at least he was not a heartbeat (and an old one at that) away from the presidency.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"I thought the debate was roughly a tie (slight edge McCain), but expect a strong movement in the polls McCain's way. The debate replaces his disastrous "suspension" boondoggle in the news cycle. Holding his own puts him on equal footing again and he successfully resets."

Maybe. Maybe not.

Another way of looking at it:

1. McCain pisses off a lot of undecideds who consider voting for Obama and lean his way, but are concerned that he's an unkown and might not be presidential enough.

2. Obama shows that he can hold his own and reassures these potential voters.

We'll see, but I think McCain chose a poor time for a hissy fit.

Real Joe said...

CNN POLL: Obama wins more older voters

OMG !!!

PorridgeGun said...

John King is a lying piece of shit. He said mcCain pulled his attacks ads down for 72 hrs - as a result of his campaign being suspended.


The facts disagree with King.

Juris said...

I doubt a strong swing toward McCain based on the debate. The best McCain can hope for is a stemming of Obama's surve in the polls, which is likely to continue for one more day.

As Nate posted a week or two ago, there is "real time" (days on the calendar) and "political time" (events that shift public attention and concerns). The first debate marks an episode in political time and allows the public and the media to refocus attention from the story of the last week.

But it's also just as possible that in two days the world economy will have gone further to hell, that there are panic runs on banks, and so forth. And that will keep Obama well ahead of McCain in the polls.

J said...

Interesting comparison to the Nixon/JFK debate. JFK was the one in the "Obama" position, being the neophyte and less experienced. Those debates ended up being a draw. And JFK won the election.

I remember my dad telling me that Nixon shaved in the morning, the debate was in the evening, and Nixon already had a "5 o'clock shadow" by the time of the debate, and the stark differences in their looks apparently came into play.

PorridgeGun said...

60% of the CNN focus group gave it to Obama.

JulieInSeattle said...

McCain is a snob and an elitist.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

As an older voter---I recognize that this is not a job for someone turning 71. At that age your prostate is so large you don't have the time to deal with important issues.

Capt Zach said...

The debate will be a sleeper to most people on the issues, but body language hurt McCain. His slightly condescending treatment of Obama wont help him, especially against an "elitist." Remember Gore lost for coming off as he knew better. When he almost lost his temper, that was especially bad.

PorridgeGun said...

CNN aren't even attempting to spin how bad the CBS Palin interview was. I've only seen snippets, but it must have been pretty fucking dire.

btchakir said...

It was Obama, about 5-4.
My summary at Under The LobsterScope

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

It was very dire---Guiliani at least had a noun and a verb before he threw in 9/11---this woman is incoherent.

Juris said...

Hey Nam Vet. I'm in your age group, didn't serve though my brother did serve in Nam.

I agree with you about how people perceived McCain's age. He doesn't get a lot of sympathy from the elderly for two reasons. First, he's on the wrong side of the social security issue (sided with Bush). Second, geezers (and I'm almost one) recognize that a 72 year old doesn't have the energy level to provide sustained hard work on what must be one of the most demanding jobs in the world.

(And third, there are those who are concerned about McCain's "mortality," and his choice of Palin scares the bejeezus out of a lot of folks.)

Bill P. said...

A large prostate IS an important issue. All the medicine ads say so.

shadowguidex said...

Heres the only relevant question:

Which candidate was more likely to have swayed undecided voters with their performance?

PeteKent said...

I thought McCain looked vigorous and healthy. He was animated and engaged and actually looked much younger than he normally does.

It seemed like Obama has a few gray hairs knotted in his curls and his skin tone seemed darker than I was accustomed to.

I watched the debate on CNN so I could see that focus group reaction. Different channels sometimes make things look different.

Real Joe said...

Good Night guys

Mason said...

At that age your prostate is so large you don't have the time to deal with important issues.

LOL.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Give me a few minutes and I'll respond to you Bill P. Gotta run.

Juris said...

McCain looked frumpy and grumpy, at times as if his eyes were closed. Not a pretty or energetic picture. He was sometimes animated when he talked, however.

Jen said...

McCain did not look animated. He looked reanimated.

What is up with "It seemed like Obama has a few gray hairs knotted in his curls and his skin tone seemed darker than I was accustomed to."

I did not think McCain did so poorly that we had to bring out talking in code. I am voting for Obama, and yes, I am aware he is black.

boulder-liberal said...

Even Dick Morris on Fox said it was basically a tie, but Obama had a better night overall. Pat Buchanan on MSNBC said Obama convinced people he could hold his own on foreign policy.

For me, I was bored to tears. No game-changer tonight for either side.

PeteKent said...

I noticed that McCain would not look at Obama. A bit odd. I think he was afraid of losing his cool if he did.

What struck me about Obama (besides the stuttering -- which wasn't as bad usual) was how he continually tried to interrupt McCain and step on his lines.

McCain was the passionate warrior.

Obama the cool professor.

Mason said...

I am voting for Obama, and yes, I am aware he is black.

Shit! He's Black??? I really need to adjust my TV.

shadowguidex said...

Things I wish Obama would have said:

1) You cite Eisenhower's ability to recognize that he needs to own his decisions. This harkens to his predecessor Harry Truman who said "The buck stops here". Well John, the buck needs to stop, and you need to own the failures of the trickle down economic theory and the deregulation that has caused this failure. Your policy is entirely wrong and you need to own it.

2) John, did you just say Alexander the Great?? How long HAVE you been in the Senate?

3) John, your "silent treatment" policy doesn't work. Mothers and father watching this...when your children attempt the silent treatment, does it ever work on you?

Alex S. said...

Honestly, the debate will be a story for only a day. Drudge has some links to the developing merger of Wachovia with Citibank. The economy will still be at risk on Monday.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Scares me too Juris---If the Palin I have seen in the interviews is the real deal---she cannot be allowed to be run the country. But then again we let George W run the county.

Juris said...

Mason, he looked brown to me. . . .

As for interrupting McCain. Let's jsut say McCain's style was to speak in never-ending sentences with many different subjects in them -- and keep on speaking until the moderator, not Obama, interrupted. Obama held back for the most part during those long monologues but the effect was McCain got away with a lot of crap.

PeteKent said...

"John King is a lying piece of shit. He said mcCain pulled his attacks ads down for 72 hrs - as a result of his campaign being suspended."

Some of you people really ought to calm down.

A few ads did make it on the air, but McCain is pretty much not running any ads.

I have been seeing that 538 Cancer ad. Obama needs to really call for that to be taken down. Shameful, right?

J said...

Isn't it just basic insecurity when you don't make eye contact?

It has to be unnerving at some level to McCain that here is this younger, brighter, more educated, less experienced guy that he not only has to run against, but who is leaving him in the dust. :)

Not to mention Barack is a hottie.

shadowguidex said...

"Shit! He's Black??? I really need to adjust my TV."

Really? I don't see race.

Juris said...

In my state there was definitely a diminution of McCain ads for the last couple of days. I imagine they'll be reloading tonight and shooting tomorrow.

PA John said...

"I thought McCain looked vigorous and healthy. He was animated and engaged and actually looked much younger than he normally does."

Yeah he looked 75 instead of 80.

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Have not seen the Cancer ad---have heard about---am Obama supporter but that does need to be pulled--it is offensive.

PeteKent said...

Juris,

We will have to agree to disagree on Obama interrupting McCain I guess. I saw it differently. Lerher was pleasantly low key and balanced. I never noticed him as having to cut either off.

Mason said...

"Shit! He's Black??? I really need to adjust my TV."

Really? I don't see race.


Shadowguidex is Stephen T. Colbert

Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...

Night all---have to go and do a text vote on Fox---wonder who'll win that?

PeteKent said...

No, Pa John, you are not being honest -- with us or yourself.

Believe me if he looked old and Obama looked so much better, the media would/will play it up. Reagan got savaged for it in 84.

AxmxZ said...

Can I be shallow for a second? Obama is one good-looking sunofabitch. Maybe it's the side-by-side with McCain, but it was like Kennedy-Nixon on steroids...

shadowguidex said...

Jesus Christ, I never noticed McCain not looking at Obama during the actual debate. But now I'm watching the replays with the sound on mute. McCain is drilling lazer beams into Lehrer with his eyes, holy cow. He never looks at Obama, that's nuts.

fred said...

Doesn't matter what we think. Look at the polls! Obama won the independents big-time in both CNN and CBS pols. Game over, Obama just won the election.

Vanessa said...

That's one poll and it's likely to be wrong.

Cugel said...

I can't believe anybody thinks McCain won this debate in any meaningful sense. He scored some points, even though if you actually know the facts, which most people don't he did well.

But, McCain came into this debate losing the election by 5% in the Rasmussen and other polling, and by at least 3% in virtually every other poll. He desperately needed to change the dynamic of this race.

Does any Republican really think this was a game-changer? NO.

Here's the best chance McCain has left: There is real anger out in the streets about the bail-out. Sensible people realize that deregulation screwed things up so badly that some kind of bailout is desperately needed.

However, this is NOT going to be popular. McCain could just say "damn the torpedoes, I'm opposing this thing!" Take the populist position.

He would be devoured in the media of course, all the Villagers would turn on him in an instant and declare him an apostate. But he might just win a "the insiders just don't get it" campaign.

PA John said...

"No, Pa John, you are not being honest -- with us or yourself."

LOL Pete, you're never honest with yourself.

PeteKent said...

Mason,

Everyone knows Obama is black, but I did think he looked darker complectioned tonight and he seemed to have a bunch of gray hairs.

fred said...

No, that's 2 polls and they are likely right.

Why are dems so defeatist? WE JUST FUCKING WON!

beowulf said...

This did have the feel of the Kennedy-Nixon debate if you were watching on HD Tv...I was and you could see every single detail, despite all McCain's make-up...I do think the reaction of people will be different depending on whether they watched on HD or not.

fred said...

This is a polling site, both major snap polls have Obama winning, big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

J said...

asmxz, I totally agree. :) I've got the debate on now with the mute on, and Obama really does look "presidential." The term my girlfriends and I use is "inspiring confidence." Some men have that in droves, and others don't.

It would have been nice to have them do more shots panning out wider so we could see the 2 of them directly head on in the frame. McCain looks like he's a good bit shorter than Obama. Obama's practically towering over his podium, and McCain is about a foot above it.

This is like watching a movie where you notice stuff the second time that you didn't the first time. :)

ObamaForTheWin said...

I think the debate was a tie. But that might be because I'm biased as someone who. I think what infuriated me sometimes was Barack's inability to nail McCain on some flat out lies. I was so angry with McCain's whole "I love veterans" mantra. It's absolute horse crap. This man couldn't care less about veterans as evidenced by his voting record. The "Iranian Republican Guard" mistake made by both made me smirk, but I was a little annoyed that Obama would repeat it. One of the reasons Obama didn't hammer McCain on some points, I believe, is that he has to project bipartisanship to lure in independents or some of disaffected Dems and he has to always avoid the whole angry black man stereotype. A few points have already been made her that I'll repeat:

-It was a pretty boring hour of television. idk how many people could actually sit through the whole debate.
- Most people had low expectations for McCain.
-This was supposed to be McCain area of expertise, but the economy was the central issue.
-Obama appeared presidential (whatever that means).

Taking in account all those points and the polling done right after the debate, I think the debate slightly went to Obama. McCain desperately needed something close to a slam dunk and didn't get it. Us Obama supporters should be happy be the outcome but in no ways satisfied.

Mason said...

Everyone knows Obama is black, but I did think he looked darker complectioned tonight and he seemed to have a bunch of gray hairs.

Feh. That's a lighting and makeup issue. As for grey hairs - he is 47. If he didn't have any, and he had all his hair, he'd be lucky.

weav said...

aw fuck st. louis, don't you know? the devil lives there!!! seriously. Build a giant ball in kansas city, a giant croquet mallet in jeff city, and try for the arch. I grew up in KC, and I say fuck st. louis, a bunch of assholes live there (and i've even lived there!!!!)

dpldust said...

Don't matter what we think now. Every major network poll has BO winning independents/undecided by double digits. People will wake up tomorrow and hear that BO won the debate the +4-5% lead will consolidate or grow and next week's vp debate - if there is one, (Washington insiders believe there will be a manufactured reason to keep her away)will finish this thing off.

Honestly - as one astute blogger pointed out McCain has sworn to put the COuntry first even if it means losing the election, but if he thinks that BO is dangerously unqualified and unprepared, than how could it be good for the country to let him win. Fact is, BO showed tonight he is prepared, therfore I expect McCain will do what he did in TX in 2000 and pull out of the race and endorse BO. It is after all what's best for the USA.

Mason said...

Why are dems so defeatist? WE JUST FUCKING WON!

We're Democrats. We're a firing squad standing in a circle pointing inward.

NJ TU Owls said...

I give McCain a slight edge. Me-too Obama had a real duh moment with the bracelet comment. He had to look at the bracelet to remember the KIA's name. Very contrived on his part.

I will give him credit for reducing his uh's. He should pass his freshman speech class now.

shadowguidex said...

"Why are dems so defeatist? WE JUST FUCKING WON!"

I'd say that will be definitive next Thursday

fred said...

Dems, we always see ther glass as half full. Yes,he should have hit McCain a couple times - but McCain failed in this hail mary. This was a win. Maybe we won 10-7 and we should have won 21-7, but a win is win and is more than BO needed.

Juris said...

J: I am old enough to have seen the Kennedy-Nixon debates. They were fought over whether the U.S. should defend Quemoy and Matsu, off onto trivia. Basically it was an intellectual standoff but the younger JFK stayed cool and articulate, while the not-so-old Nixon had both a "5-o'clock shadow" and the sweats (wet upper lip, etc.) which made him look nervous.

Keep in mind that JFK was also a decorated war hero, and was married to Jackie -- so had some other things going for him.

Jen said...

"Can I be shallow for a second? Obama is one good-looking sunofabitch. Maybe it's the side-by-side with McCain, but it was like Kennedy-Nixon on steroids..."

I think this is what many voters are going to take from this. Obama looks like a President from the movies. As much as people wish it were not the case, looks matter. I think appearance hurt Kerry. Usually, the better looking guy wins. The main exception is 2000, but Gore won the popular vote.

538_Fan said...

Throwing my opinion in...

It is clear reading all the responses that there are so many varying opinions on who won and why. I'm amazed at the diversity of reactions from even just pro Obama folks. Some have defined a win or loss based on their personal reaction while others have tried to guage the impact on undecided or soft support voters. If you are an Obama supporter, you probably had an expectation of how you wanted him to perform even if you never consciously made note of it. If he met or exceeded those expectations then it is a win for him. And then there are the instant polls. It seems like some if not all the polls of the reactions were from people pre-selected. If this is the case, then I wouldn't put too much stock in these polls.

Here's why: These people are more likely to watch all of and pay attention to the debate since they were "pre-selected". I'm not so sure the average undecided voter was glued to the tv during the debate as some of the poll group were. There impressions are going to be shaped by the media narrative over the weekend.

The polls on Monday and Tuesday will give us an indication. I suspect virtually no movement either way as a result of the debate.

Writer said...

McCain started off in the muck: he invoked Ted Kennedy in the most egregious and blatantly canny attempt to drag the viewers by the heart into his camp.

McCain went on like a kicked dog through the rest of the debate, fearful of ever looking Obama in the face, even as Obama directed his comments straight at him. Never once did McCain direct a comment at Obama.

In every question, McCain seemed to get more flustered, and was even making sniffing sounds like he was ill near the end of the debate. Obama's demeanor was always prim, calm, and intelligent. McCain's was confused, ill-equipped, and angry.

The Dial Response Group ratings fell well below the mid-line every time McCain spoke, particularly that of the line which represented Independents, and typically rose well above the mid-line in response to Obama. In sheer mathematical scoring, the data will show Obama the clear winner.

Barack Obama won this first debate handily.

Francis Deblauwe said...

I analyzed the words and sentences which Obama, McCain and—why not?—Lehrer used in the debate. Have a look at the bubble graph (no. of words and length of sentences and words). I also made "word clouds." Interesting! Go to my Word Face-Off blog to view.

Darío said...

I say tie.

Thingumbobesquire said...

We are facing a great depression in this nation again. Neither of these candidates have a clue. And yet all the political blogs and television commentators mindlessly carry on about debating style. Barack Obama and John McCain had absolutely nothing to say about what to do to get the nation out of this disaster. Who lost the debate? America.

rm said...

Debates always happen within the context of recent electoral events. McCain did have a fairly strong debate last night, but after his grandstanding antics Wednesday and the purely awful performance of Palin last week, the effectiveness of his debate performance was severely blunted. You may actually see some small movement in the polls over the next week or so toward McCain as a result of last night, but it will not be significant if it happens at all. Obama only had to hold his own and he did that very well.

There are two more debates to come that will have a greater impact on the election than this one. If McCain can control himself and not do anything stupid before the next one, he may actually be able to tighten up the race with another good performance. But I consider this unlikely. McCain is behind in all polls with only five weeks to go and is in panic mode. Watch for more desperate antics like last week that will only hurt him. His judgment is poor and likely to get worse as the election looms.

For those who might actually think that he might yet pose a serious threat to Obama... don't fret. We still have Sarah. ;)

jqb said...

The polls on Monday and Tuesday will give us an indication.

Uh, no, they won't, because McCain's numbers are in freefall for many reasons, this debate included. Only polls specifically about the debate will tell us anything about its effect, and they have told us that McCain lost badly among the critical swing segment.

jqb said...

Usually, the better looking guy wins.

Usually the taller guy wins (unless SwiftBoated).

jqb said...

Very contrived on his part.

You seem not to know the meaning of the word (which might help explain that you're so dumb as to think McCain won). Obama's comment was impromptu; it was McCain's reference to his bracelet that was contrived ... part of his prep, to score a political point, and devoid of any real concern ... it was just him being an asshole and saying how important it is to kill more people so that the ones already dead "didn't die in vain". Obama's comment that no soldier dies in vain because s/he is following the CiC's orders was rather deep, and I'm sure that vets and soldiers who heard that greatly appreciated it. The difference between McCain and Obama is illustrated by McCain's lie that he supports vets ... in fact he repeatedly has voted against their interests, which is why he gets a 20% approval rating.

jqb said...

McCain has sworn to put the COuntry first even if it means losing the election

His biggest lie of all.

jqb said...

That's one poll and it's likely to be wrong.

You're one person and you're likely to be an intellectually dishonest fool.

jqb said...

Believe me if he looked old

Uh, right, we can believe PeteKent that John McCain doesn't look old like we can believe him about anything else.

jqb said...

We will have to agree to disagree on Obama interrupting McCain I guess.

We can agree that petekent is a lying puke.

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平平 said...

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