1:49 CDT: [Sean] Late update from the road... Chris Matthews doesn't like noogies.
11:21 CDT: More instapolling: SurveyUSA has Californians giving the debate to Obama 53-30, Washingtonians to McCain 40-38. McCain won indies in Washington, lost them in Cali. From the internals: in both states, voters thought Jim Lehrer was exceptionally fair, wanted more discussion about the economy, thought McCain looked tired, thought Obama looked Presidential.
11:16 CDT: [Sean] Well, Brett and I haven't gotten in the car and driven hundreds of miles in, what, at least half a day? So we're headed out. What to expect in the next week for On the Road... a bit of a slowdown. We'll cover Missouri with a few posts, and we'll liveblog from Washington University in my hometown of St. Louis next week. Then a frenzied month in the midwest and east covering battlegrounds from the road. We're gonna give Chris Matthews a noogie on the way out. Thanks for sharing the night with us, I'll let Nate wrap up with any final comments.
10:53 CDT: [Sean] Nate's right about that, and I'd only add that if people were especially tuned into the content they were tuned into the economic content in the first half of the debate given that we're in a big crisis.
10:49 CDT: [Nate] Really, I think a lot of pundits go about watching the debate in the wrong way. Namely, they're paying too much attention to it. That's not how most people watch the debate. They're talking with friends, taking care of their kids, drinking a beer, flipping channels, surfing the Internet. I think what those people saw is that Obama looked good, he sounded good and forceful, he spoke directly to the middle class in the first 20 minutes, and he probably had the best individual moment of the night on Iraq. And by the time that McCain woke up, they had fallen asleep or had flipped over to the White Sox game.
10:47 CDT: [Sean] Did anyone see the Pat Buchanan comments just now? As he spoke, they showed McCain replying to a question in a large window box next to Buchanan. McCain was silent, and so you could only get body language. He looked angry as hell. That's my dead horse. Folks should watch this thing again, silently, and just observe the body language of these two candidates. That's the big takeaway for me. The always-smart Eugene Robinson agrees.
10:36 CDT: [Sean] The two debates in my memory bank that one candidate just destroyed the other were the first Mondale-Reagan debate and the Gore-Kemp debate. But Reagan won the election, huge. Another big win was the first Kerry-Bush debate, but Kerry didn't win the election either. So I agree that Obama won, I think the "you were wrong" moment was the most memorable moment, but I'm not sure anything really happened tonight. It was more of what didn't happen.
10:31 CDT: [Nate] CNN/Opinion Research telephone poll went to Obama. Hearing that Luntz and GQR focus groups went to Obama. Yes, I'm beating this horse to death.
10:28 CDT: [Sean] This campus seems pretty nice. Wish we could stay and see it a little more. Oh well.
10:24 CDT: [Sean] Another thing about Biden is he can come on TV after these presidential debates and be a surrogate, and the various networks have to cover it -- he's the VP nominee. You will not see Sarah Palin doing the same thing once.
10:14 CDT: [Nate] OK, here's that link to that CBS news poll. And it wasn't 500 independents -- it was 500 uncommitted voters. I would say, just from my own point of view, that Obama didn't win by anything like a 2:1 margin, but that's partly because I was so pleased with his first 45 minuets that he raised my expectations for the last 45, when McCain seemed almost literally to wake up.
10:13 CDT: [Sean] Richard Wolffe made a strong point. McCain made a series of declarative statements "you don't understand" and then Obama came back with fluency in foreign policy. If you consider that "You Don't Understand"/demonstration-of-understanding-in-reply template lifted up and placed onto next week's Biden-Palin debate, where if you imagine Biden saying it to Palin and Palin trying to respond, it's clear it works less well when a guy is more than holding his own.
10:10 CDT: [Nate] It doesn't appear to be on the web yet, but several commentators point to a CBS News poll of 500 independents gave the debate to Obama 40-22, with 38 percent declaring it a tie. Beware, however, because the reaction in these instant polls doesn't always match the movmenet in the horse race polls in the proceeding days.
10:01 CDT: [Nate] Independents in the MediaCurves focus group gave the debate to Obama 61-39. They also think he won every individual segment. Republicans gave the debate to McCain 90-10, Democrats to Obama 93-7.
9:55 CDT: [Nate] Obama moved up 3 points in the Iowa Electronic Markets, but lost 3 points on Intrade. Given the funny business we've seen on Intrade lately, you'll know which of those two indicators I'd tend to trust.
9:52 CDT: [Sean] When you think back about the debate and the big moments, I think the "You were wrong" moment and the McCain getting angry about negotiating with dictators are the two that stand out.
9:50 CDT: [Nate] Alex Castellanos says it was a tie, and that a tie goes to the candidate who is town in the polls. I don't see how that makes any sense. Besides, I think Begala is right that Obama's confrontation of McCain on Iraq was the moment of the night -- and the one that likely breaks the tie.
9:45 CDT: [Sean] First reaction. On the "looking presidential" front, Obama clearly seemed calm, poised, knowledgeable. McCain had a couple of angry moments. Obama looked at McCain and seemed comfortable engaging with McCain. Obama looked into the camera. McCain looked into the camera but his body language was worse, and him not looking at Obama definitely didn't make him come across as confident.
294 comments
McCain clearly had a grasp of the issues. Obama was lost.
Drudge, who won?
McCain 73
Obama 24
Neither 2
McCain had a grasp on wringing his hankey. Obama kept his cool.
I agree - McCain clearly dominated this debate. I was very surprised by his performance.
Kudos to McCain!
TIE. Which means win for Obama.
Oh geez, here come the Republican trolls.
McCain had some strong points, but his body language and rhetoric turned a lot of people off.
McCain had rambling answers looked grumpy and kept reading a resume.
Obama need a couple blue-collar jabs like " you can suspend your campaign, but not the truth"
"McCain clearly had a grasp of the issues. Obama was lost."
Could you try to get a little further from reality? Idiocy is so painful. No reputable pundit will claim that Obama was lost. Not one. Don't make stupid arguments if you want to be taken seriously.
McCain lost his temper in the middle of the debate. How sad.
Obama flat out got his ass kicked. "Teacher, teacher, I have a bracelot too!"
By the end, Obama looked tired and thoroughly beaten. The old man looked like he could go another 15 rounds.
Obama performance is truly pitiful... not to mention he might be the scariest candidate for president ever.
Wow, the trolls are on early... Just watch the polls over the next couple of days. Obama looked and sounded very presidential and will consequently consolidate his lead.
"McCain clearly had a grasp of the issues. Obama was lost."
Holy cow- rose-colored glasses much? Maybe beer goggles? How many people, other that hyper-partisans such as yourself, would agree with that? At best, I'd say the debate was a wash. This was McCain's night to shine- FOREIGN POLICY! Considering his position in polls right now, a wash is a win for Obama, and a big one.
Don't believe me? Let's watch the polls, and see who's right.
McCain did better than I expected. He actually had a knowledge of recent developments in North Korea for example. I wouldn´t give it to him though just because my expectations were rather low.
Obama was very good, and very stable. I think it´s a tie with a slight edge to Obama, maybe because of the economic exchange.
I'm slightly scared about the way Obama says "Pakistan" and the "Taliban"
Brian Williams on NBC just said that they offered an invitation to Sarah Palin to rebut Joe Biden's post debat comments, but the McCain campaign declined and provided Rudy instead. What a disgrace!!! Did she even make the trip to the debate??
Obviously who 'won' depends on where you stand on the political spectrum.
What matters is what the swing vote thought of the performance.
I think both did very well.
I'm with realistxxx. This was supposed to be McCain's opportunity to win a debate. Instead, it was, on balance, a wash. There were a couple moments where McCain probably made an emotional connection, but also Obama had a more Presidential demeanor. I think his answers also addressed Lehrer's questions better, though this is a higher-order observation that might not be made by many viewers.
Nate is right. Obama wins because economy trumps and people went to sleep an hour in
Worst. Debate. Ever.
I thought McCain turned in a worse performance than Obama, but as usual, neither impressed me at all.
This is why I hate these things sometimes. Obama clearly won. I'd have manned up and admitted it if he'd lost, just as I have with other Democratic candidates. McCain used Washington insider speak, did not connect with middle American and seemed aggravated most of the time. It just wasn't a good performance for John McCain tonight.
The reactions of independents on CNN's meter was interesting. Clearly they reacted more positively for Obama, which makes me wonder whether the group was more Dem-leading or whether Obama really played better with independents and undecideds.
CNN and MSNBC said Obama won the first half and McCain won the second. Fox news said McCain won outright - big surprise there.
However, I thought Obama did well in the second half; he appeared confident, knowledgeable, and he held his ground.
I thought McCain did well though, as foreign policy is supposed to his strong point.
A draw perhaps? That's my first instinct. What does everyone else think?
I think that if you had listened to this debate on NPR you would have a different impression. A listener would probably call it about even, although McCain's voice seemed to quaver at times. If you add the visual images, McCain did not seem comfortable at all. He was on the verge of blowing up at least once.
Undeniably McCain and Obama both have more than just a grasp on the issues, and formidable debating abilities. I am biased, but I'd call it a slim victory for Obama.
That was like a 9-6 football game.
Win. GAME CHANGER!
Every time Obama tires to put his big boy pants on he FAILS.
He meant it as an insult, but a GOP strategist just said "if we were choosing the captain of the Harvard debate team, it would be Barack Obama".
That's a win for Barack. It's pathetic that anyone would view intelligence and debating skills ass character flaws, but there it is.
McCain fell back on his experience. Obama had a broader view and often returned to the theme of peoples welfare. McCain had only one card - Surge, Iraq. It was Obama;s night.
The Debate: Live Analysis
Sept 26 Polling Update
Obama 301, McCain 237
McCain Came across condescending and angry. I doubt that'll go over well with the undecided voters.
The fact that 24% of Drudge's audience thought Obama won should scare the bejeezus out of McCain.
Blackjack for McCain, he just salvaged the last week. Thankfully, the conversation goes back to the bail-out tomorrow where McCain has been rabidly pro-deregulation.
Why wasn't John McCain wearing a flag pin tonight? This is unacceptable behavior from someone that claims to be a PATRIOT!
Ha! 'as character flaws'. Ass is not a character flaw, except for Rush of course.
Hey Reality Check - so it scares you that he can actually "pronounce" words correctly? It scares you that he's a little more enlightened and little less redneck??
McCain shone around the Iraq question and lost his temper in the middle. Obama was tying or winning every other part of the debate. In the CNN audience tracker, the lines were rising every tine Obama was speaking. whereas when McCian was speaking either the lines stayed flat, or the res liked it with the ocasional. blue and yellow lines moving up
Either way this was McCains debate to win. He didn't. Whether you thing McCian won or lost it was fairly close. Obama shone and was in control for most of it.
A tie was a loss for McCain as all the rest of the depates are on his weak points.
Did McCain change the game? My first thought is no. But we'll see in the polls.
Anyone who follows the campaigns knew most of these issues and their positions. I'm wondering what Joe Mechanic and Suzy School Teacher thought though.
The only thing that was really uncomfortable is how McCain was scowling and not looking at Obama.
I was about to respond to "reality check", but I see he's just a troll. I mean, look at his moniker- sounds like he needs to take it to heart. But 2/10 for you, troll, since you managed to snag a few people.
I'll be contrarian... I think McCain scored points (to the general public, not the informed voter) in the economic issues, but Obama explained the Middle East situation alot better.
If anyone is interested, I did a detailed summary (hehe) of the entire debate in my 8-part liveblog, with mostly complete answers on all the questions.
Not everything is there since I was obviously tight for time.
Josh -
Good point. Anything over 10% for Obama on Drudge is horrific for McCain.
Sigh.
See, I know that saying "my candidate won" doesn't make it true. Obama won. Had it been otherwise, I'd have admitted it. Any moron can spew talking points.
All trolling aside John McCain avoided an senior moments, and Barack Obama showed he is capable in foreign policy.
The CNN independent focus group line went with Obama more than McCain with noticably they didn't like when McCain attacked Obama.
No one made a clear victory so everyone is going to see what they want which means Obama is still ahead. McCain didn't get the 'win' that he needed to pull from behind.
Overall First Impressions on the First Debate
Executive Summary: *Yawn*. Overall a rather boring debate, no real zingers or winners or gaffes. On the whole I think Obama won slightly on presentation and demeanor, McCain won on subject matters. Obama will benefit more because he had more to gain.
Random observations:
1. Where was Mccain's lapel pin?
2. Obama looked into the camera many times, McCain not even once.
3. McCain seemed agitated and passionate, Obama cool as a cucumber. I think both could have done better in going the opposite direction.
4. Obama did very well on Iran I thought. McCain did better on Russia.
5. Obama really blew it at the end when he didn't respond to McCain's accusations and all the "I heart veterans" stuff. No mention of the GI bill? Why not?
6. Obama clearly was trying to shift the discussion to domestic issues.
7. McCain seemed skittish but overall in control. I'm not sure if voters wondering about his recent behavior will be comforted more by the latter or worried more about the former.
8. Obama was confident and that should reassure some who were concerned about his ability to hold his own on these issues. He was nothing like what he was at Saddleback.
9. McCain spoke in old talking points far too much. In fact, when he said "Let us win" in his bracelet story, I said it along with him because I have heard it so many times.
Bottom Line: Both did fine but the net edge IMO is slightly to Obama simply because Obama had a lot more to gain here than Mccain did. There are millions of voters who want to vote for Obama but were concerned about his abilities and this should make many of them feel a bit better. This won't change any decided voters' minds either way.
"Obama performance is truly pitiful... not to mention he might be the scariest candidate for president ever."
"Win. GAME CHANGER!"
The idiocy of some posters here is stunning. Can you try to make a rational argument, at least? I mean, how does inane drivel help your cause? If you don't have a constructive thought, then don't post, please.
I'm kind of getting the impression that someone told a bunch of people on some other forum to "go over to 538 and post a bunch of pro-McCain comments." It was clear the Obama held his own on the foreign policy issues; McCain seemed unnatural and unsympathetic; Obama clearly had the upper hand on the economy. At least 2 out of 3 for Obama.
It was a draw, even Fox gave the economy to Obama, the Foreign policy to McCain.
This will not move the polls, Obama is fine.
Palin better look good.
My line for the debate would be that McCain supports earmarks for millionaires in a tax bill but opposes them for a senior center in an appropriations bill.
I was surprised that Obama still refuses to mutter "stop LYING" rather than just "you're wrong".
I was also surprised that Obama never mentioned the earmarks pursued by the Governor of Alaska.
The media are making a big deal about McCain's closing statement calling Obama unprepared to be President, but missing that it will put increased emphasis on how utterly unprepared his VP choice is to deal with foreign affairs.
I thought McCain was too focused on Iraq and winning. Made him seem out of touch and unable to grasp the big picture. Obama did a good job of connecting McCain to Bush.
Overall I thought they both did a credible job. Obama was more presidential in tone and demeanor. McCain stayed bent over the podium.
I would have liked Obama to have done a better job a few times at dispelling McCain's false attacks. aka lies about Obama
I don't think there was a clear winner which means Obama wins because he is leading the race.
Just keep telling yourself that Reality Check, if it helps you sleep tonight:) Tell us something that Obama made a mistake on and you might be more convincing...he looked Presidential, he was confident, he understood every issue, and he made no mistakes...guess what, that is not a game changer.
people are only going to remember two things from this one:
1-Obama's "You were wrong" line
2-SNL's spoof of mccain not looking at Obama
Obviously, the first bloggers failed to watch the debate in order to spew first. John was rote, Obama answered the questions and showed reflection. According to John, he has not been part of this administration for the past 8 years - so, where has he been then? Obama was clearly more presidential.
Repub tool Castellanos said tie, spun to help McCain since M is behind. He said that O did well reassuring independents and undecideds he can do the job, which is all O needed to do.
McCain looked really old. I know I mention this a lot, but looks matter and Obama looked presidential and McCain looked unattractive.
I see O moving a point or two up in the daily trackers on Sunday.
I'm a fervent Obama supporter, but I thought the debate was a disaster for him. I did miss the first part so maybe he did better there, but IMO Obama didn't come off nearly as experienced in foreign policy as McCain. And that's a shame because I think Obama is actually far stronger on the issue.
PLEASE let Obama prep more before the next debate...
Pretty sure it will go down as a tie---which I think works for Obama.
CBS poll of 500 uncommitted voters, who won the debate?
McCain 22%
Obama 40%
Tie 38%
Do the trolls posting stupid remarks think they will change anyone's perception of the debate? I guess they are dumb enough to think so.
I'm not sure you political junkies understand how unbelievably boring this debate was... I'd be amazed if it has any real impact on the poll numbers.
de montfort -
You make an excellent point. My guess is Saturday Night Live will decide who won this debate, just as they did in 2000.
walisi, why do you think it was a disaster?
I was also surprised that Obama never mentioned the earmarks pursued by the Governor of Alaska.
I was surprised at that too
Check out the movement on In-trade. The troll you talked about in your post from a couple days ago is at work. Has bid up McCain 3.8 pts by placing orders for 3-4 shares.
CBS Poll:
40% Obama won
22% McCain won
38% tie.
Barack did much better in connecting the foreign policy discussion with the economy and domestic challenges. I would have liked hit back a little harder against McCain at times, but generally thought he got it right tonight. McCain had some good lines and a few good attacks, but messed it up by sounding either flat and old (and referring to all these historic events didn't help) or at other points making extraneous attacks on Obama.
mccain's team is such a fucking group of lying bastards
78% thought it was a tie or win for Obama? I can live with that.
Unfortunately, the other 22% are either punditing on TV or here posting. :)
"McCain 22%
Obama 40%
Tie 38%"
Link please?
I thought McCain presented his message ably, though he seemed grouchy at times. Main thing is, no one is buying that message. You can't just score the debate in the closed context of the arena, but on how those issues are already playing out in public opinion. No one thinks picking fights with every country we have issues with is a good plan, except McCain.
Neither seemed interested in discussing the "rescue plan" ( bailout ). I think both should have made an effort to give that issue its due; Lehrer specifically opened with that topic.
McCain's body language suggested discomfort, annoyance or even anger. He looked like someone on the verge of an outburst.
CBS Poll:
40% Obama won
22% McCain won
38% tie.
YES!!!! Link please
MvCain did better than I expected, but his voice was shaky and thin, and he seemed less Presidential than Obama.
I think Obama pulled some punches and I suspect that the goal was to appear acceptable to the bone-heads who are still undecided. To that extent, I think he clearly passed the test.
McCain may have stopped the bleeding, but I don't foresee him getting much of a bump out of this debate.
I hate debates and usually don't watch. This one was well-moderated, had no gotcha questions (what if yer wife was murdered) and focused on the issues.
Well done Mr Lehrer.
Think it will have an impact on polls. Obama needs to show that he is Presidential--and that he did. People want a change and they need to feel ok about it and voting for a black man.
Everyone talks about expectations and I think the biggest win for Obama is simple this;
A lot of people thought that how he was at Saddleback is how he would be here.
They were two different men entirely.
I think both Nate and Sean are speaking a little to much from their biases here. I am a registered libertarian who is voting for Barr this election cycle, and I did not think McCain seemed angry in the Iran segment, nor did Obama seem to really take the reins at any point. I think McCain was successful in portraying Obama as naive on a number of issues, and most poignantly, that he is mostly a talker and not a doer. Obama was not as successful at pointing at McCain's flaws. I think this debate probably strengthened Obama's stance with Liberals but strengthened McCain among independents.
Mason said...
That was like a 9-6 football game.
---------------
The game is in progress.
To be generous, let's say McCain scored a touchdown and Obama kicked a field goal.
The game is still 24-10 in the 4th quarter.
Current bid on McCain on In-Trade: 1 share at +3.3 Mccain.
Barack by a mile....McCain is lame.
Obama wins first hour, McCain wins last 30 minutes. But was anybody watching by then?
One thing Obama MUST learn is HOW TO WIN A SHOUTING MATCH! Too often near the end John was simply talking on and right over him and Obama would back off. He was right to turn to the moderator once, but he cannot do that too many times. Shouting matches are when you are supposed to fake umbrage, and after the primaries he should be pretty good at it. Something to practice for next time.
Overall, Obama takes it but needs to finish what he starts.
The partisans have their reasons to give the entire debate to their favored candidate, but it appears from polls that undecideds thought it was either a tie or a slight win for Obama, simply because Obama had low expectations.
I agree that Obama only needed to hold his ground against McCain since he already leads in the polls, so a tie is a good thing for Obama.
I admit that Obama did better than I expected, but so did McCain.
Obama needs to improve next time out. Not on command of the facts, but in the steering of the discussion. And in the delivery. On a plus note: Obama didn't commit many 'ummm...uhhhs'. I thought, overall, it pretty close. However, both were able to pass certain tests. If I was strapped to a waterboard and forced to pick a winner: McCain by 2 rounds. (I'm an Obama supporter)
Honestly, it was a boring tie. The numbers will go nowhere and the Vice-Presidential debate (as pointless as it usually is) may actually decide this election, depending on weither Palin ties or flat out gets dominated by Biden. Hopefully, it will not be the latter.
Another note, Nate has lost his indpendence in my mind. It seems that you have gotten way to partisan for Obama, which is sad. I really liked this site when it wasn't so biased and that there was good independent debate between the partisans. But now, it is just Obama elitists vs. McCain "trolls." Lets go back to the old fivethirtyeight.com!
"I think this debate probably strengthened Obama's stance with Liberals but strengthened McCain among independents."
I don't agree.
It's not that I think Obama "beat" McCain. More that they had different objectives.
All Obama was trying to do is hold his own and seem confident and poised, and he did that. It wasn't intended to change minds, but to assure those considering voting for him.
McCain needed a real game-breaker and he didn't get one.
Looking at the focus group lines, it seemed to me that the independents were a lot closer to the democrats than to McCain. Was it an advantage that going into the debate, independents were leaning towards Obama, and thus tending to give him bigger credibility during the debate?
McCain was angry. He reminded me of the old next door neighbor that used to yell and us---get off my lawn!!!
Tracking Poll Averages--Obama up by 5!
He was nothing like what he was at Saddleback.
That was a forum, not a debate. I still think Obama won that - it was only to get the reasonable evangelicals, his position on abortion precluded any of the others.
I was also surprised that Obama never mentioned the earmarks pursued by the Governor of Alaska.
I wondered about that until I realized bringing her up would have given McCain the chance for a total diversion from the topic at hand. We would have heard 'lipstick on a pig' talk and who knows what else. Sure Obama requested $60 per capita and Palin requested $600 per capita in earmarks. Biden will get the chance to bring up that in his debate.
""McCain 22%
Obama 40%
Tie 38%"
Link please?"
I was watching CBS and they announced it on-air, I haven't seen it yet on their website but I presume it will be up eventually.
Well dammit redhawk--get off the lawn!
On that mediacurves thing ,60% of independents thought Obama won the debate. Obama won independents on every issue. The closest McCain came was 47% on govt spending
OMG, somebody on CNN just said "don't hold your breath" on Palin joining them for post debate discussion. LOL.
@DaWolf
Obama has to steer away from direct comparisons to Palin... he's not running against her. If he mentions the Bridge To Nowhere, McCain would just turn it around on him that he voted against the amendment that would redirect that money to Katrina aid.
It was a smart move to avoid. Save it for the stump, or let Biden nail Palin on it.
If Obama won why is there a 6 point swing on Intrade suddenly?
It's funny how the same event can evoke so many different perceptions. I thought it was disaster for McCain, from his no-flag-pin gaffe to his claiming falsities as facts to his condescension towards Obama to his stage mannerisms (sneering, not looking at Obama, holding that stupid pen). Others obviously think McCain did well...I disagree.
The Republicans obviously say McCain won big. The Democrats on here obviously say Obama won. Big surprise.
I'm an Obama supporter, and I honestly say it was a tie.
But Obama gave his best debate performance ever, and since the topic was supposedly McCain's big strong point, a tie looks good for Obama.
http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/09/poll_who_won_the_debate.html
Who won the debate? Barack is up 2:1
Anderson Cooper, to Wolf Blitzer's comment, "Wouldn't it be nice if Sarah Palin gave us a comment too?"
"Don't hold your breath on that one."
LOL
Dale is the designated douchebag on this thread.
First post on the thread to boot. Congratulations, wingnut!
"That was a forum, not a debate."
I know, but I heard a LOT of comments from people who assumed it was and marked down Obama heavily because of his hesitant, long-winded answers. Obama was far better on that.
Anyone also notice FAR fewer "uhs" and "ums"? I did.
"I was also surprised that Obama never mentioned the earmarks pursued by the Governor of Alaska."
I'm glad he didn't. Wrong place to go after Palin, who is imploding nicely on her own.
"I wondered about that until I realized bringing her up would have given McCain the chance for a total diversion from the topic at hand. We would have heard 'lipstick on a pig' talk and who knows what else."
Yep, or worse. :)
Obama is playing 3rd quarter football with a 3-TD lead.
In Trade has very light trading, don't worry about single moments
@Mike
Point he can make is if McCain is so worried about earmarks, why did he pick the governor from the state with the highest earmarks per capita?
Key statistic:
From CBS (and no, I don't have a link because I watched this on TV, although I am sure it will end up on CBSnews.com) from a survey of 500 independents/undecided votes (panel arrnaged in advance)
Did the debate make you think better or worse about Obama?
Better: 46%
Worse: 7%
(I may be off by +/- 1 OR 2).
Regardless of what you think of the answers and who spoke better, that defines who won politically. Obama's need was to hold his own and to reduce uncertainties about himself. Those figures (and the other ones already cited in earlier posts) demonstrate that he did.
Say hello to defeated presidential candidate John McCain.
Remember that there have been some shennanigans on Intrade.
You call it boring, I a good, decent debate, without major blunders. McCain tended to literally recycle himself, but I guess many voters don't care.
Given the CNN Independent line, you would expect him to maybe win over some. Also, McCain, in the beginning, just sounded tiring.
For Nam Vet Joe From Jersey:
Because I felt Obama let McCain walk all over him. McCain sounded more specific than Obama, and Obama didn't challenge McCain nearly as much as he should have. For example, when McCain mentioned sanctions against Iraq, Obama should have slapped him with, "Funny, because I introduced legislation last year to do just that, and you came out against it."
Obama didn't challenge McCain on his statement re: offshore drilling easing gas prices or functioning as an effective bridge to alternative energy, Obama let Jim Lehrer cut him off instead of finishing his statement about McCain opposing nuclear storage in the state of AZ, etc.
And when McCain went after Obama in his closing statement, Obama totally punted on the response.
Obama just didn't come off well and nearly as knowledgeable even though I *know* Obama is lightyears ahead of McCain on the substance. It just didn't come through, though.
JMO
Obama reminds me a lot more of the people I know and respect, and would trust to be President, than McCain does. He seems like someone that would listen to someone else's opinion and maybe even be swayed by a coherent argument. McCain, like Bush and Palin, comes off as the annoying type of person who discounts other people's opinions instantly because his are, naturally, papally infallible.
One other thing; I've noticed here and on other sites that the pro-Obama comments have substantially less grammatical errors and typos than the pro-McCain comments. It'd be interesting to see a study.
Realist....
I meant that in that it was unimpressive, really, for either side. Someone wins, but when both sides look back at the video on Monday, they'll see lots of points for improvement.
"If Obama won why is there a 6 point swing on Intrade suddenly?"
God I hate Intrade. So tired of hearing about it.
It's a thin market, easily manipulated. That's why.
Last night some Republitroll was on here going on about how Obama was D0000000MED because his numbers had dropped on Intrade. An hour later they were back up agian.
PLEASE people, stop looking at Intrade like it means anything.
Ok guys. It was a pleasure sharing the debate with you all. I have to go to bed as its 4 am. Goodnight and have fun
Independents in the MediaCurves focus group gave the debate to Obama 61-39. They also think he won every individual segment. Republicans gave the debate to McCain 90-10, Democrats to Obama 93-7.
I thought it was a draw - both were predictable and played to their base. But if the idies have broke for Obama, fine by me. Good for them.
H boggled:
"Brian Williams on NBC just said that they offered an invitation to Sarah Palin to rebut Joe Biden's post debate comments, but the McCain campaign declined and provided Rudy instead."
:)
Is McCain really going to let this happen? Oh my holy god.
@DaWolf
It's still not a good point to go tit-for-tat on. He needs to keep focus on McCain.
That is, unless the perfect opportunity comes up. Obama was on the defensive on that go-round.
"Obama reminds me a lot more of the people I know and respect, and would trust to be President, than McCain does. He seems like someone that would listen to someone else's opinion and maybe even be swayed by a coherent argument. McCain, like Bush and Palin, comes off as the annoying type of person who discounts other people's opinions instantly because his are, naturally, papally infallible."
Yep, this is where I think Obama did well.
The problem with mcCain's demeanor is simple: he reminds me of me. And I am not someone anybody would want as president. :)
@jj
you're another nuts brit then?
speaking strictly subjectively, I wanted Obama to tell McCain to stuff his smirking down an off-shore oil well.
(I actually wanted a somewhat more civil version of that, somoething on the order of, "John, you know, people didn't like Al Gore's sighing during the 2000 deate, and I am sure they're not going to like your smirking.")
There were different goals for each candidate tonight.
McCain: Show voters why he'd be a great president and overshadow his recent mistakes.
Obama: Show voters he's ready to be president. They already WANT to like him, but he has to seal the deal.
McCain did not hit his mark. Obama may not have completed the 'seal the deal' part, but he definitely showed he's ready to be president.
Neither side had a knockout punch, IMO. McCain showed better than I'd expected - and Obama had a couple chances to hit harder but didn't - which really ticked me off. Oh well.
Folks here are saying that a tie helps Obama since foreign policy is supposedly McCain's strong point and Obama held his own. I wonder if, on the other hand, anyone watching who says, "Lookit McCain, he held his own against Obama", would give 'em cause for hope.
"I think this debate probably strengthened Obama's stance with Liberals but strengthened McCain among independents."
All of the available evidence, however, suggests that Obama either won or tied independents. He seemed to have better reactions on CNN's reaction meter among independents. CBS's 500 undecided voters also showed an advantage for Obama. Most independents are not libertarians.
"You like to pretend the war began in 2007."
"Winning" is subjective. What matters is that more Independents viewed Obama favorably. Also, more Republicans viewed Obama favorably than did Democrats view McCain favorably. Also what matters is that Obama has been way up in the polls and this debate will either keep it the same or even give him a bigger bump.
Anyone also notice FAR fewer "uhs" and "ums"? I did.
Yes, I figure he has Taser™ burns from sessions of some aide zapping him every time he said it in practice sessions.
Seriously - about a week ago this, most likely this life-time habit, was gone - that takes serious discipline to effect a change like that in such a short time.
Mark Halperin’s overall grades: Obama A-, McCain B-
Charles,
You're right about the "Ums". This was Obama's best debate ever.
McCain Landslide !!!
Republican Alex Castellanos said a tie is good for the guy behind. He actually said that, word for word.
I can't believe the Middle East Peace Process wasn't discussed. EPIC FAIL for Jim Lehrer. His incompetence was the biggest surprise tonight.
If Obama won why is there a 6 point swing on Intrade suddenly?
There were three big dumps. One at about 21:35 EDT, one at 22:08-22:14 EDT, and one at 20:45.
DaWolf said...@jj
you're another nuts brit then?
I'm Irish, but I'll let it pass this once :D
Why does Obama get knocked for wanting diplomacy? I find that ludicrous. Why do we have to take the bully stance in foreign relations? Why not meet with Chavez? Or Raul Castro?
It's time to start repairing our reputation around the world (which, BTW, McCain never addressed). It's time to start talking and stop throwing the bombs around and killing more innocent civilians.
But then I want huge cuts in military spending, not increases.
I think some people would prefer Obama to "smack down" McCain, and I can´t say I am innocent there, but those that start caring about the election with the first debate, will prefer a sober style.
Btw, "boring" probably favors the Democrats. If the VP debate becomes a shotgun/moose hunting circus, the Republicans will benefit from that.
I can't believe the Middle East Peace Process wasn't discussed. EPIC FAIL for Jim Lehrer. His incompetence was the biggest surprise tonight.
That was suprising.
apologies jj!
night!
I can't believe the Middle East Peace Process wasn't discussed. EPIC FAIL for Jim Lehrer. His incompetence was the biggest surprise tonight.
although it helped Obama so I'm not complaining too much, he had too many economy questions and too few foreign ones for a foreign debate.
"Independents in the MediaCurves focus group gave the debate to Obama 61-39. They also think he won every individual segment. Republicans gave the debate to McCain 90-10, Democrats to Obama 93-7."
YAY!
Gaffe-O-Matic Biden about to punditize on MSNBC.
*fingers crossed*
For Walisi:
I think that McCain may come off as being more specific because of his narrow mindedness. Think that Obama showed a far wider knowleldge of the issues. Thought McCain was just throwing out his standard sound bites. But hey I'm a supporter of Obama so take it with a grain of salt.
"Republican Alex Castellanos said a tie is good for the guy behind."
I'm going to venture to guess he wouldn't have said that if his candidate had been the guy ahead.
This wasn't about winning or losing the debate from a debate team perspective (who "won" this or that logical point). Obama needed to show Americans that they can trust him to lead the country. Is he knowledgeable, is he confident, is he strong, do we like him, is he presidential?
The CNN meter and snap polls are clearly indicating that Obama succeeded. At the end of the day, for all of McCain's stunts to get attention, this election is a referendum on Obama. And it doesn't really matter how well McCain did.
Biden was good on CNN, he did fine
For walisi: and disaster is a bit strong
Where's the source for the MediaCurves group?
Their website is down.
All objective early evidence points to an Obama 'win'. We'll see what happens in the coming days, as wins often turn to losses in the aftermath. Debates are weird that way.
McCain came across as a bit of a loon tonight. Okay, I'm biased, but still...did you listen to some of his responses? He's a Neocon's Wet Dream.
The cbs number are up:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/09/26/politics/horserace/entry4482028.shtml
Anyone else care that McCain was wrong about the Eisenhower story?
Good to hear, Fred. Thanks.
@ The BOB:
"Taser burns" LOL
That would be a good way to stop the "uhs" though ;)
Negative reinforcement FTW!
Obama had the strongest riff of the night:
"John you like to pretend like the war began in 2007. You talk about the surge -- the war started in 2003. And at the time when the war started, you said it was gonna be easy, you said we knew where the weapons of mass destruction were, you were wrong. You said that we were gonna be treated as liberators. You were wrong. You said there was no history of violence between Shia and Sunni. And you were wrong."
This Obama supporter thinks tonight's debate was pretty much a tie. Which is good for the less well known person, Obama.
People who have thought, or even said out loud that they would never vote for a black man for President, were pretty much forced to see that Obama looks and speaks Presidentially.
I can almost see the more open minded spouse or people in a given room saying to the others, "See, Obama is alright."
what do you think will be the lasting impressions?
I suspect that a youtube vid of McCain saying AHMENADIJAD (or however the bloody name is spelt) juxtaposed with a vid from lord of the rings where Bilbo goes a bit crazy might be fun.
Obama won Nevada tonight. Yucca mountain is the issue there, and the nuclear waste issue spoke to it.
For Jeremy: I'll bite what was wrong?
On style McCain won. He controlled the direction of the conversation and Obama seem reactive throughout. Seriously doubt anyone who's already a committed to either side will switch b/c of the debate. In most people's minds, the only topic anyone probably cared about was the economy in the first 20 minutes. Obama scored points with the tax and healthcare issues, that hits home for most people. McCain got in good jabs with the whole pork barrel thing, but the only problem is that the average American is totally clueless on this topic. I was kind of annoyed that they both ducked on the bailout question.
Bottom line, McCain made the most out of a weaker hand on the issues, while Obama definitely had a chance to seal the deal. In my mind, most independents are looking for Obama to sell them on his vote, but he didn't do it convincingly tonight
A win would be defined by whether the candidate in question accomplished his goals. Obama doesn't do gutters, or smartalecky remarks. He doesn't win with flash. He won getting McCain to the debate by looking cool under the fireworks, and he was cool in the debate. Cool, calm and collected. Very presidential. McCain needed to gain a few points on Obama, but Obama held his own. Strictly speaking of the debate, they each did well. In terms of overall goals, Obama wins, as it contributes to his pattern.
From the CBS news link above:
"Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.
Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.
Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.
Forty-nine percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-five percent think McCain would.
We will have a full report on the poll later on. Uncommitted voters are those who don't yet know who they will vote for, or who have chosen a candidate but may still change their minds."
Why hasn't anyone called McCain out for directly contradicting and being blatantly wrong about what his own adviser, Kissinger, said about meeting without preconditions? I was hoping that would be one of their fact checks. I mean, fact-checking whether someone is "the most liberal" - hardly something quantifiable - but not factchecking a quote that's already been pre-factchecked for you?
And Intrade is back to pre-debate levels.
The degenerate gambler loses again.
"Why does Obama get knocked for wanting diplomacy? I find that ludicrous. Why do we have to take the bully stance in foreign relations? Why not meet with Chavez? Or Raul Castro?"
Thank you. I said during the 2004 campaign that the whole thing was about machismo - Bush as the frat boy, Kerry as the scholar. It's repeating itself again this year. These are "lizard brain" tactics - including the transparent strategy "Palin is female and attractive, therefore men want her and women identify with her" - completely tone-deaf and ham-fisted.
Give the American voter some credit. Every move the Republicans have made lately has been totally condescending. Aiming at the "low-information voter?" Could you show any less respect for the constituency you've based your whole gambit on pandering to??
Obama won the presidency tonight.
And now on to the VP debate, where you'll hear Sarah Palin say...
"You can't blink. You have to have that readiness. John McCain knows when Putin rears his head into airspace he's going to Alaska. Maverick. Reform. We must reform. You have to be ready. You can't blink."
Rethugs are desperate. Apparently it's odd to call your opponenet by their first name all of a sudden - so say's Leslie Sanchez. Spin away, Sanchez and Castellanso.
These people are nuts.
Maybe Palin has been putting on an act and she is going to come off in the debates as being brilliant.
Despite McCain's endless paternalistic chorus of, "Senator Obama just doesn't understand", I think Obama landed some vicious shots in the subtext. Notably:
- "Won't meet with the Prime Minister of Spain. SPAIN! They're a NATO ally!" == McCain is out of touch.
- "The problem with spending freezes is using a hammer when you need a scalpel." == McCain can't see gray.
- "...you've sung songs about bombing Iran, so it's hard to take [your claim to military prudence] as credible." == McCain is too reckless for his own good.
But overall, a phenomenally boring hour of television, and I assume all low-information viewers were gone before the end of the bailout segment.
"I was kind of annoyed that they both ducked on the bailout question."
I'm not sure which question you were referring to, but regarding the second question (the "how would you revise your proposals based on the bailout") I thought it was totally unfair. "How, specifically, are you going to change your economic plans to adjust to a bailout plan that hasn't been made yet?" Utterly ridiculous.
And McCain's spending freeze reponse.....goodness. How are you going to propose to freeze ALL government spending other than defense and veterans? Just a rash and utterly insane comment.
The volume off, which even David Brooks says is the way to look at televised debates, was a disaster for McCain. He seemed angry and frustrated all the time. He came across like the guy that argues with everyone about everything. He did not once look presidential. It was hard to hear his words when being drawn to that angry sneer.
The really funny thing....
After 90 minutes of Obama being on point and confident, tomorrow the Rethuglitrolls will be right back at it claiming he's "lost without his teleprompter". ;)
I thought he did very well.
Eisenhower never offered to resign if D-Day didn't go as planned. He accepted responsibility in his letter but resigning was not mentioned at all.
Mason said...
And Intrade is back to pre-debate levels.
The degenerate gambler loses again.
Another loss for McCain. Sweet.
"Obama won the presidency tonight."
Obama held serve tonight. He won the presidency over the past two weeks by: (1) not losing his cool over the Palin/Convention McCain bump; and (2) going for the throat when the nation turned to economic issues.
And McCain's spending freeze reponse.....goodness. How are you going to propose to freeze ALL government spending other than defense and veterans? Just a rash and utterly insane comment.
I was surprised Obama didn't ding him harder for that. For instance
"John, how are you going to pay for all the extra nuclear power plants when you have a spending freeze?"
cnn has a focus group segment next
I think you're missing a major moment of the debate - McCain's introduction of his new policy proposal of a spending freeze.
I don't think that one favors McCain.
Thanks Jeremy
Gaffe-O-Matic malfunctioned - no gaffes. Thank God.
"Spin away, Sanchez and Castellanso.
These people are nuts."
No, they are desperate. Obama might or might not have won, but he clearly didn't lose. That's what McCain needed: either a clear win or an Obama loss. It didn't happen, so they are trying to manufacture an advantage for McCain. You can't blame them for trying (lying?) because it's their job. But you also can't take them seriously.
So what will be McCain's next Hail Mary maneuver?
Ready for the ugly 527 ads?
I agree with pre-debate analysis that this is the debate where McCain had to hit a grand slam in order to produce any effective bounce in the polls.
Tonight I didn't see that.
In fact, I think that a week from today nobody will really remember much of what was said.
This is good news for Obama, largely because of recent poll trending, but also because the rest of the debates should showcase the issues on which Obama consistently polls better with voters.
Obama's also got experience now with the first debate and you can bet his campaign team will be coaching him on how to avoid any of the minor mistakes he made.
and Jeremy, why do you know that?
Dawolf said
I was surprised Obama didn't ding him harder for that. For instance
"John, how are you going to pay for all the extra nuclear power plants when you have a spending freeze?"
Hopefully he's saving that one for the economic debate right before the election.
At the very end, McCain exposed his jugular when he repeated his bit with "I've been there. I've got the experience, I know how to do this and I'm ready to go on day one." Obama should have used his last remark to pounce on it by saying "For all your experience, Senator, you were wrong about Iraq in 2002. In fact, you were saying "Next up, Baghdad" even before President Bush was saying it. And you were saying it would be easy and we would be greeted as liberators, and you were wrong about that. You supported the President when he took his eye off the ball in Afghanistan, and the Taliban and Al Qaeda have regrouped, and that's a direct consequence of the fact that you were wrong on Iraq. We've spent hundreds of billions on the wrong war and that's money we didn't spend on the right war, or on getting ourselves less dependent on importing foreign oil, much of it from countries that don't like us very much. So for all your experience, Senator, you were wrong about the most important and far-reaching decisions of the last 8 years, and I don't think we can afford to have someone who's ready to be wrong on day one."
That would have been a knock-out blow, but unfortunately Senator Obama didn't go for the exposed jugular.
So what will be McCain's next Hail Mary maneuver?
Palin will "fall ill" so McCain will kindly offer to take her place at the vice-presidents debate - after all, he'll always be there to help her at a heartbeats notice...
dawolf opined:
"I was surprised Obama didn't ding him harder for that [spending freeze proposal]. "
Really? I thought O's rebuttal ("The problem with spending freezes is that you're using a HAMMER when you need a SCALPEL.") was one his of his best lines.
Media Curves' numbers show overwhelming GOP support for McCain on each of nine issues, and overwhelming Democratic support for Obama.
No surprises there.
But the average of the Independents on all nine--every one of which broke with a majority favoring Obama--was 59.11% favoring Obama.
Call it an overall 59-41 split on the Independent voters.
McCain takes home the booby prize.
CNN poll is also a slam dunk for Obama on overall performance, Iraq and economy.
Three flash polls show a clear win for Obama.
Next up - Sarah.
This is over, peeps.
Gloria Borger just hit the nail on the head on CNN..."Obama ended the tax debate tonight"...Obama on 5 different occasions hammered home his tax policy and I think ended a main message of Republicans against Democrats.
I think some folks are missing a key point in complaining about Obama not being harder on McCain --
This is the way Obama is. And it's part of why he wins. People like a class act.
fu** no
polls say Obama won: CNN
WTF ?
Independent Voters awarding the debate to Barack Obama is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
nam vet joe-
I sort of have that fear about Palin. By demeaning her as a complete moron, those on the left just make it easier for her debate. It is a win at this point if she does not drool on herself. I do not think you can be a total idiot and be the governor of a state, even if it only has less than a million people.
Pre-debate if I was a Dem talking head, I would say something like, "I know Palin has had some not so great interviews. She has seemed out of her depth and rambled. However, I am sure she is quite sharp to have become the governor of Alaska, though they did elect Ted Stevens. Well, I guess we will just have to watch the debate to find out what happens."
Instead of attacking Palin the left should be damning her with faint praise.
Very good Rich---would have been a perfect ending----it has got to be rough though when you are actually doing the debate and coming up with a great ending like yours.
Really? I thought O's rebuttal ("The problem with spending freezes is that you're using a HAMMER when you need a SCALPEL.") was one his of his best lines.
he didn't say hammer - he said hatchet.
but what I meant was repeatedly dinging. The first line was great, but when McCain was then talking about ANY spending Obama should have called him on it.
For Nam Vet:
I did miss the first half so that could be flavoring my impressions. Re:
"I think that McCain may come off as being more specific because of his narrow mindedness. Think that Obama showed a far wider knowleldge of the issues."
I thought Obama had a better analysis on Afghanistan, but he didn't challenge McCain enough when McCain said 'All the foreign experts agree' with his assessment of the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan instead of Obama's assessment.
But when it came to Russia, I felt McCain came off as much more fluent on the topic than Obama, and possessing a greater vision for the region as a whole. And I have no idea why Obama didn't mention Georgia provoked the whole situation to begin with when they performed a military operation in Russia when Putin left for Beijing. THAT was why Obama issued a more nuanced statement at the time (which I applauded).
I also didn't think Obama saying he continually agreed with McCain when he gave a response was terribly helpful because it made him look like he was riding on McCain's coattails.
But, if the consensus is Obama did great (particularly by undecideds in this election), I'm happy to concede my assessment :).
I'll wait to see what Rachel Maddow has to say...
PS. In my previous post I meant to say sanctions against Iran, not Iraq.
Still independent...
I don't think either candidate came away with my vote - nor did they comfort my woes about the economy, Iraq, or any other issue out there. McCain's inability to directly respond to Obama in the early and his constant hammering on the earmarks and being completely off subject bothered me. Obama's inability to give a direct answer to which program would go if we paid 700 billion made me still feel like he's holding back and refusing to commit to a decision. So I'm not convinced still. I don't think this was a slam dunk for Obama with independents, I don't think that him holding onto the argument that going into Iraq was wrong is significant, because he wasn't in a position to make the decision. I think that he came across as, still, fluffy and lacking specifics. McCain still comes across as wooden and incapable of understanding what a normal person is going through. His best moment was his last. That may be bigger over time in the minds of voters with having the last word.
dawolf - oh, yeah, you're right. :)
On the economy, I thought Obama cleaned up. Taxes. McCane never even tried to defend his tax cuts for big oil and the rich or his voting with Bush 90% of the time. "Freezing" all expenditures except defense is no way to run a government if you are trying to prioritize critical areas such as education or health care.
On foreign policy, I think it was a toss-up, mainly because McCain spread his points and went on and on in a way that made it difficult for Obama to respond. But Obama hit him hard on Afghanistan and the decision to go into Iran. Otherwise so much was worn out rhetoric -- the surge, supporting veterans (Obama missed chance to point out McCain's checkered record on this and his own record on getting the Veterans Admin to clean up Walter Reed, etc.)
North Carolina flipping on Intrade right now.
Thanks for playing, Mac.
Maybe Palin can flip Texas?
I was disappointed with Obama's comments on Russia. I would have liked it if he had been forceful enough to call Georgian President: Mikheil SAAKASHVILI on his reckless provocation that brought Russian retaliation. And that ringing Russia with NATO satellites composed of former Soviet territories is the wrong policy. But he and his advisors probably felt that McCain would attack him for being 'weak'. I also would have liked Obama to have said that the surge in Iraq is working as long as we keep cutting monthly checks to Sunnis and Shiites.
I also didn't think Obama saying he continually agreed with McCain when he gave a response was terribly helpful because it made him look like he was riding on McCain's coattails.
strange. I took home the impression that Obama was prepared to agree if he thought someone made a good point. McCain came off as though he wouldn't agree with anything Obama said, purely because Obama said it.
"would you like a cup of tea?" - Obama
"tea! Only naive people drink tea, it comes from China!" - McCain
all polls are fake
McCain Landslide !!!
Ogre said-
"McCain takes home the booby prize."
_________________________
Would that be Palin? :)
Yeah obama had a flag pin. McCain did not. That means Obama is the better president and wins everything. We were all thinking that but this flag pin thing just seals it.
Pass the beer.
Question: Besides Obama's convention speech, has Buchanan ever said anything positive about Obama's chances or performance? Don't get me wrong, he never attacks Obama personally or on policy, but according to Buchanan, Obama always seems to be losing and having terrible vulnerabilities.
Obama won the presidency tonight. He wentto a lead this week, he solidified those voters tonight.
President Obama!
For those who are surprised at Obama's win in the polls (CNN's, etc.)
* Obama met the "looked presidential" test. He was confident and collected and gave that sense of "in control" that people want and need to feel in POTUS
* The guy who is losing need to come out and score a game-changer, a knockout. McCain didn't. For him, then, it was a loss. One or two guys even on NRO admitted as such.
* Obama, both by his supporters and his detractors, is not known as a heavyweight on foreign policy. Mr. "Did you known I was a POW/I don't know much about the economy" has made his campaign nothing but. For Obama to go toe-to-toe, and even win a few rounds, is nothing short of huge.
That's why, in a change election, people only needed to be convinced that Obama is safe and can be "trusted" with the office.
If this "Obama won" meme sinks in, this could snowball for Obama...
Here's hoping.
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