8:29 CDT: [Nate] McCain, calling out ethanol subsidies as a bad thing, would seem (correctly) to have recognized that he's lost Iowa.
8:28 CDT: [Sean] Nate's right -- it's hard to do this objectively. But it seems Obama is in control and crisp.
8:24 CDT: [Nate] Everything about McCain says "old". Anecdotes about things he accomplished a long time ago. References to Dwight Eisenhower. Old jokes about bears in Montana. Old Reagan-Bush style economic talk.
8:22 CDT: [Sean] Has McCain looked at Obama yet?
8:16 CDT: [Nate] I don't quite understand this MediaCurves thing, but it looks like independents are breaking about 60:40 for Obama on this economic stuff so far.
8:11 CDT: [Sean] What was that "write two letters" story in one of those Cold War movies? The first letter was to blame it on your predecessor, the second letter was to his successor telling him to write two letters.
8:09 CDT: [Sean] Obama beats McCain to the "I was trying to fix this problem before it got to this point" punch.
8:08 CDT: [Nate] As a Democrat, I felt very good about those first five minutes. Tying this whole mess to Bush was exactly what he needed to do. And McCain looks tired; the visual difference is pretty striking.
8:05 CDT: [Sean] Welcome, Nate.
8:03 CDT: [Nate] Have to say: the debates are probably the most difficult element of the entire campaign to evaluate objectively. But we'll give it the old college try.
8:02 CDT: [Sean] Here we go. The Superbowl of politics.
8:00 CDT: [Sean] So, I'm hearing CNN is talking about FiveThirtyEight. Toobin mentioned us, and then Begala referred to "90210 dot com." But I haven't heard what they were saying. Was it about Nate's scary giant brain?
206 comments
HERE WE GO !
I'm so nervous. just hold serve Barack!
Toobin saying debates may not matter as much as people think - Begala saying 538 is crazy and debates matter lots (1980, Bush looking at his watch)
Toobin referred to the "fantastic web site at fivethirtyeight.com -- referring to a previous article there stating that impact of previous debates is short-lived.
God, i'm gonna puke. This is worse than the 2004 ALCS.
Toobin said that your analysis about the importance of debates was spot on and that the debates are not really that important and don't really shift things. Begala disagreed and cited Reagan's jump after the debate.
Specifically, I think Toobin was referring to the contents of this post:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/debates-may-not-be-decisive-after-all.html
First impression: Obama looked gracious greeting McCain.
McCain, not so much.
Obama forgot to acknowledge teddy. Good touch by McCain.
What are the credits that we are going to lose?
Okay, so, Obama just gave a very succint answer. McCain is meandering and talking pretty content-free.
Obama's answer very specific.
McCain sounds sickly.
this is very awkward...
FYI...Teddy had a seizure because they changed hi smeds -- he's already home.
wtf? this is the revolutionary debate format? nobody knows what to do
i think they are both doing well so far.
Obama is taking the reins pretty firmly.
Obama's resonse to the first question makes a good shot at connecting with Middle America. ANd he's making a palpable connection between the meltdown and the Bush era.
But the Cool is definitely on. No outrage, no emoting.
Look for the Hot from McCain when it's his turn.
They've been working on Barack's Uhhhhs
McCain crushing Obama
McCain Landslide !!!
"I hope so" - "Sure" Which one?
Why the fuck is he talking about D-Day?
I'm not sure that McCain will get another chance if he doesn't hit this one out of the park. The subsequent debates will be on economics and will likely have fewer viewers. Moreover, undecideds are starting to harden. If McCain can't swing the race now, with Palin up next it could be all over.
What the *SHIT*is McCain talking about? Eisenhower is there, and Normandy... and this has something to do with firing Cox?
Bomb Iran!!!
Did anyone else find the opening o the five minute section a little awkward?
Obama is speaking to the camera and hence the American people. McCain is not. Small but BIG difference in effectiveness.
Lots of empty platitudes from McCain
KAPOW! Good one Obama
OMG..Obama doing better than expected
Obama keeps re-directing focus onto the middle class. Good move!
BO is winning, by a nose.
The new format=epic fail
Bomb Russia!!
Someone didn't study!
I love how they keep agreeing with each other. Come on, someone throw a pie!
OMG..not good Mr. McCain
The CNN-HD "dial" results at the bottom of the screen is pretty sweet.
It's like Lehrer is trying to breed them. Get to know each other guys!
obama isnt talking into the camera anymore then mccain is they are both talking to the mod asking them the questions.
THIS DEBATE FORMAT SUCKS! LEHRER IS A SENILE MUMMY
So far, Lehrer is winning the debate.
McCain with empty platitudes. I think he caught the "Palin bug" - no specifics.
"Main street" is the new buzz word. We'd all be on the floor by now if that was the drinking game word
Is McCain's striped tie making anyone elses eyes go buggy?
McCain's first response seems a little disjointed. Not hot, but warm. Not bad, but not great.
that cold war story was about Khrushchev I believe.
McCain is getting angry!!!
"evils" - he should not use that.
The bear DNA story is was old.
Obama's doing the best he can to dance around the "do you support the bailout" question.
McCain with a good score on earmarks.
Right, Obama, take him to the woodshed on government spending.
And Palin's earmark spending is off the chart per person. Does he really want to open that door?
McCain is going to the same old lines, people who follow this want new stuff.
McCain's folksiness is his strong point
first off, its a sharpie your holding john.
2ndly, if i hear that line one more time about the bear dna research in montana, i just might kill myself
are they agreeing on thing's more then they usualy try to do in debates?
MCCain's certainly trying to be more calm and comfortable-looking, which may be an attempt at solving some of his hot-tempered problems. Remember, this is about convincing the undecides, not us fanatics.
Obama HUGE COUNTERPUNCH!
Obama just pwned McCain with math.
For those who care, I am liveblogging in detail (summarizing answers) on my blog.
"Here's my pen - its an old one". McCain just won a bunch more swing voters in Kentucky
"I don't mean to go back and forth"
It's a debate jackass.
McCain: B-b-b-b-but... money! Lots of money! Corruption!
Obama: 18 billion vs. 300 billion. What do you have to say about the 300 billion?
McCain: LOTS OF MONEY!
McCain is winning this question, but not hugely.
This might be a good time for Obama to mention the Keating 5
Obama's answer to McCain re: "we need to responsible all the time, not just when there's a crisis" seems pretty damn smart.
McCain so far seems to be trying to be Mr. Cool too. Doesn't wear on him. C'mon, Mac, throw a hissy fit!
the "two letters" thing was in Traffic from the outgoing drug czar to the new one.
McCain's winning this one. Obama on the defensive
Good response Barack.
how old is the mod guy? he's so boring...........let's get nate up there!
McCain's Bear DNA Joke fell flat.
Ew, he said "my friends".
McCain sounds nervous. His voice is shaking. Also, Barack was the first person to cut the other off.
He siad "My Friends" Everyone drink!
Anyone else think Lehrer wants them to talk to each other and argue it up themselves because he's hoping to take off early?
I'm behind you guys. Watching on TiVo.
Rebuttal of business taxes.
Obama needs to respond, good he finally is.
This format sucks.
If Obama plays this right, he can piss off McCain before this ends.
Obama is being really aggressive and vigorous. He's being the alpha dog.
Throw tomatoes at me but Kerry was a better debater
McCain has no flag lapel pin!!! John McCain must hate America!!!! Vote Obama - he's wearing a pin!!! Barack Obama LOVES America!!!!
Thought I'd make my first post one that a conservative could understand. Some of these issues are pretty tough, but flag pins resonate with conservatives.
i wounder how many people are watching this.
McCain finally getting a little tepid (not Hot, just tepid) on the $18B earmarks.
Thata simpy grin is showing up - McCain is getting pissed.
A snooze so far.
Yes Becky and Bush is better than McCain.
Um, Becky - you sure we're watching the same debate? Obama is rocking McCain's world at the moment. McCain is coming off as pedantic and lecturing, while Obama is being succinct and talking directly to Main Street.
McCain just lost. He repeated the lie about taxes on 42k earners.
McCain's sickly laughter is saddening. Seriously, he's kind of pitiful.
McCain still hasn't looked at Obama.
He does not like him at all. No respect
Bush is better than McCain at the debate.
OK - maybe I'm just nervous for Barack - so listening for his errors
Obama is finally talking at McCain, but McCain is still talking to Lehrer. Agree, the format is clumsy.
Yall are more entertaining than this debate.
haha. did mccain almost call him 'Captain obama?'
Don't smile Mccain, it looks real bad.
also I can't see them
Obama slightly ahead so far after 2 questions, but Obama wins a draw. People are still checking out Obama, McCain must win to move ahead.
Whoever let McCain get on the stage without a flag pin should be fired. That's just bad.
Becky,
Yeah, the visual makes a huge difference. :)
Dems and Indies are jumping on CNN's thingy for Obama.
Obama doing beter tonight on the "uh huhs" and pauses.
Nice.
Did Gloria Borger die?
"Senator Obama's definition of rich?" Are you fuckin' KIDDIN me? How does that play for John McCain?
guess we're just going to blow off the foreign policy debate. Questions about the financial crisis/bailout would be fine, but the rest of this is stupid.
fred, Hillary is better than McCain.
Answer the question Old Man!
Obama is winning on Main Street references.
There goes Iowa!
Is CNN's reaction thing gauging the audience at the debate? Or people on their website?
Really bad suit color for McCain. Falls into background.
Ethanol - he just lost Iowa and parts of MN with that ehtanol statement.
Poor Mac.
Funny how in EVERY presidential election, the Democratic candidate is "the most liberal Senator/Governor/Whatever" in the country. Time to change the script, GOP. No one's buying this crap anymore.
Obama is all over main street.
Spending doesnt really hit a chord.
(-) Obama let a couple "uhs" sneak in.
(-) McCain's tie is gonna give me a seizure.
(+) Obama is letting more personality show through.
(+) McCain's tie has not given me a seizure yet.
@Trevor
Focus group of undecideds in a little room somewhere.
Lehrer pwns. He just does.
McC is spouting lots of the typical winger myths about O, like "most liberal in the Senate." Jesus.
"I took the tanker contract from Boeing." - McCain
Goodbye, any chance of Washington state. Also Kansas says 'Wha??'...
Hillary is a better debater than either of these guys.
If we had a Reagan or Bill Clinton he would wipe the floor with these guys.
I'm not sure where Sean is getting his numbers, but I'm not the one who likes the coffee house slow jams. His favorite musician is Jewel.
Bill P. said...
Whoever let McCain get on the stage without a flag pin should be fired. That's just bad.
Had to be the same person who picked that tie.
Obama up 2 on ETrade since debate began
McCain's right about ethanol subsidies. Blind squirrel meet nut.
Obama's right, and pretty good at interrupting McCain. However, his speaking style in debate has an almost stutter in it, as though he's trained himself not to say "Um" but that the pause is still partially there. Clinton (Bill) would completely wipe the floor with him in a debate.
McCain says, "...I've been involved in these issues for many, many years."
I thought that experience went off the table when he picked Palin.
obama's starting to use alot more uhhhh's in his sentences.
Obama is convinced he needs to speak first, and I vehemently disagree. I think it hurts him because he could easily pounce on McCain's crap.
Haha! Obama gave the best possible resonse to "most liberal" nonsense.
The only mistake Obama has made so far is saying McCain is right on....on anything.
Thanks dominold
@Fred on ethanol - except for McCain voted against an (or the) ethanol bill.
ETrade ?
whats ETrade
without visuals I can't tell Lehrer from MaCain
A spending freeze on evrything but the military.
He's nuts.
William Jennings Bryan would totally be dominating this debate.
/snark
sorry Intrade
He got the war in there! Yayyyy
way to go - 10 billion in iraq when they have a surplus... awesome point
Lehrer is the guy who talks once every twenty minutes and lays the smackdown on both candidates.
The electric power industry does not want nuke plants - they are too expensive.
Focus group is not all undecideds- 1/3 reg Dems / 1/3 reg Reps / 1/3 Undecideds.
Yeah!! McCain just totally won the crucial pro-nuclear power swing vote!
Sadly, he just lost votes in both Hanford and Three-Mile Island.
What I like: Obama's answers are fairly crisp, articulate, natural, and right on the issues. The guy looks confident, informed, and Cool. Does it play on Main Street?
They're dodging. Answer the man!
This is putting low info voters to sleep, they aretuning out now.
That makes this a wash, and an Obama win because that is he needs to do - hiold the ball and run out the clock.
eTrade is one of those online stock brokerage sites. I don't think they do the betting on candidates.
Barack sounds nervous - is he nervous?
Obama is doing well. McCain is also doing well but there is no clear winner here, which means its a win for Obama. McCain needed to destroy Obama and he is not doing that.
intrade I meant intrade
did McCain just say 700 billion goes to foreign aid? really?
FDR would be beating either of these candidates.
McCain just lost Iowa.
Nobody wins the debate now.
But it´s McCain who must win.
I don't think McCain's "lets not hand healthcare to the federal government" plays too well anymore. We've all tried the "free mkt" for healthcare......... it sucks
I never thought I'd say this, but McCain is slimier than Bush.
Oh, and a Clinton name drop.
McCAin is lying about Obama's plans and healthcare.
"Somewhere in America, a conservatice is lying"
The question is... do they ever get into foreign policy? Maybe the last 20 min?
Iowa isn´t in play.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.....
Becky -
Obama doesn't look nervous at all on television. He actually looks pretty collected. McCain looks like he can't believe he's losing this election.
Obama is doing very well. So is McCin.
So far it is no win/ no loss for either but in part this is because of the question being repeated. Mc Cain started to sound better, unfortunately
McCain's sounding more crotchety as he gets more tired
McCain's pitch on spending is a good one. Hes a leader in that and it plays well.
ORGY of spending and enormous deficits!
WOW Obama just destroyed McCain on this spending issue.
McCain looks like he'd love to walk over and slap Obama.
KAPOW!
What's this miss congeniality crap?
Obama just got him on his voting record with Bush! Good for him!
McCain has already "lost" Iowa regardless of debate.
Oh give in with the Miss Congeniality line you boring fart!
Ron Paul will win the debate.
Here comes the lead in to a POW comment...
First Palin reference resulted in the dials dipping hard core!
McCain is suddenly sounding irritated
This iraq war question could be a swing....
good tag by Obama on Mccain not having credibility on opposeing Bush on spending when he's voted for Bush's budgets
First Read at MSNBC.com just mentioned the flag pin embarrassment.
One answer Barack, "We Shouldn't have gone in."
The Surge. 1#
'I was against the administration's policy in Iraq before I was for it.'
That's what McCain just essentially said.
self-parody alert: McCain just described himself as a maverick
McCain Landslide !!!
Hatchet vs. scalpel line was...sharp. Point Obama.
No, he said we spend $700 billion a year on foreign oil. He didn't say it well, but that's what he meant.
McCain's strategy of winning as the green(er) candidate? Not going to fly with anyone intelligent enough to draw breath.
Yes!
Yeah!!! Bill P. scoops First Read on the flag pin!!!
/humor
"I was for it before I was against it" McCain
HAHAHA!
What a turd.
Yes what Becky?
I think this McCain rambling on Iraq was not a winner. Obama actually WON the Iraq question imho!!! Anybody agree with me?
mcCain was too detailed, too many minute details. Obama is much more big picture.
YEAH bring up the trillion dollars and 4K deaths.
Take it away on Iraq, Barack. Yeah!!!!
Yes, I know Iowa isn't in play. Jeez. I'm free-associating here.
Who said Obama was weaker on foreign policy? - he's finally coming into his element
Obama sounds like the steady hand, while McCain sounds...well...not the steady hand. Very strange.
Surge surge surge.
Mccain was holding his own until the end of the econ debate.
Good intro by Obama on Iraq. McCain is not going to win on this surge thing, because the surge is not the war.
Would McCain have sex with Gen. Petreaus if he could?
>>Yes what Becky?
Dario - Obama started with "We should never have gone in". I liked that
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