The more that I think about this, the more I think that the failure of the bailout package in Congress today was something of an inevitability -- perhaps the only way to right the perverse incentives that had been at work.
The Republicans' best-case scenario was the bill passing the House by one vote -- with as few as those votes as possible coming from Republicans.
Their worst-case scenario for them might have been ... what just happened this afternoon. Opposing the bailout had been a political freeroll before because it wasn't manifest to the public what the risks of a nay vote would be. But with the Dow having dropped 780 points today, the risks are now painfully obvious. What had looked to be a politically prudent position 24 hours ago now looks cavalier and reckless. And yet, the Republicans will still by and large will get blamed for putting us in this predicament in the first place. Plus, the failure of the bill is an embarrassment to John McCain...
I'm not saying that Pelosi's ostensibly partisan speech today (which I still haven't heard) was a deliberate attempt to sabotage the bill. The margin was such that the bill was almost certainly headed for failure regardless. But her risks were pretty well hedged if the bill failed -- much better, it turns out, than the Republicans' were. Roy Blunt and John Boehner ought to have known to build in a fudge factor. They didn't, and now their party is liable to suffer as a result.
9.29.2008
Pelosi Tips the Scales?
@ 6:55 PM
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which interview is this vanessa?
1992 Clinton was at 59% following the convention....final #'s
Cinton 43%
Bush 38%
Perot 19%
Palin McCain Couric.
Holy crap Batman! RCP makes a big move to Obama at the state level!
RCP Electoral Count 249 163 Obama +86
No Toss Up States 301 237 Obama +64
Pelosi is an idiot for blaming the Republicans, especially since the reckless lending was started by Bill Clinton, as per this NYT article from 9 years ago:
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=print
Thanks Clinton, you idiot, we have 50% of subprime mortgages failing right now but at least you made "housing more accessible to minorities and the poor". Then he flukes into an internet bubble and the housing bubble he caused from this loose credit he gave away, and they have the gall to blame this on the Republicans!?!?
Bush appointed Chris Cox who walked away from regulation - Bush made it worse, just like he has foreignpolicy, personal rights, - you know, little stuff that keeps us American.
at least mccain was able to bail her out that time...
dan - what percentage of this current mess do you think is caused by subprime mortgages, and what percentage of subprime mortgages were given to "minorities and the poor."
Your answers will say a lot about how much you actuall know about the subject.
RCP has just changed PA to leaning Obama from toss-up, but WI and MN are still classified as toss-ups.
Both of them must surely go to leaning Democrat when the next polls come out of those states.
Then Obama will be on 269 EVs, not including toss-up states. Obama needs to improve in NH though.
inkie-
I need those facts, what are they?
Forget NH, get VA and NM and nuke NH after the election.
Dan,
As much as you and all Republicans would love to believe it, this isn't Clinton's fault. From the very article you cited:
"Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped."
If the program had actually been implemented this way, we wouldn't be in this mess. Instead, because home prices were booming, "exotic" (PREDATORY) loans were extended which had terrible terms. Loans that were 1% above market rate for two years, I assure you, did not lead to this crisis.
This was allowed to happen because of all the Republican (and McCain)-backed deregulation legislation.
Wisconsin will likely go to lean dem in the next 1 or 2 polls.
Minnesota, less likely. It will probably always be a toss up, even though we all know it's going to the dems...I guess it must be from the RNC convention there.
ink, I'm curious if your nums match mine,
from what i've read about 120billion of the 1 trillion in those MBS's are bad so 12 % or so. However the main problems are with Credit Default Swaps bet on these MBS's failing, which is a ~62 Trillion dollar problem, instead of a trillion dollar one.
I heard one of the republican house members (can't remember which one), saying they were going to "Call Paulsons bluff" this weekend.
I believe they got their own bluff called when the market dropped almost 800 pts. My guess is they were not expecting that. NOW they will see the feebleness and fickleness of the "angry white men" they represent, who will all now fear their job loss.
This was a HUGE win for the democrats. HUGE. And I'm sorry that "partisan speech" crybabyness, aimed at someone with the demeanor of Pelosi just seems ridiculous to all. You MIGHT be able to get away with that if the speaker was a bully in the LBJ tradition but Pelosi? LOL.
A republican disaster that they deserve. LEADERLESS is right. The leaders here are Frank, Pelosi and even Paulson on the republican side.
Hahaha I always like Ink's commentary esp when it looks like this:
Nancy Pelosi is on the list of boogeymen (right next to the New York Times and poor people)
What the shit is goin on in here? Is 538 getting freeped? Freepered....? People are extra pissy tonight.
I wish all the conservatives online would go away and Virginia Conservative would come back
FLGOP isn't bad either becky sharp. Always backed up claims when asked.
When is that polling update coming Nate?
I thought McCain suspended his campaign to get a deal done, but he is out campaigning again now? This is a total lack of leadership from Bush/McCain.
He tried to claim credit this morning and it came back to bite him in the ass this afternoon!! And this man thinks he should be president? Not to mention dumbshit Palin sitting next to him...
The Dems come out looking pretty good on this one. I'm sure Obama can swoop in and provide the 12 additional votes needed to pass the bill.
I thought McCain suspended his campaign to get a deal done, but he is out campaigning again now? This is a total lack of leadership from Bush/McCain.
He tried to claim credit this morning and it came back to bite him in the ass this afternoon!! And this man thinks he should be president? Not to mention dumbshit Palin sitting next to him...
The Dems come out looking pretty good on this one. I'm sure Obama can swoop in and provide the 12 additional votes needed to pass the bill.
I think it's time the Dems write a bill THEY like and pass it. Forget the Republicans. Dare Bush to veto it. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Obama just won North Carolina, home of Bank of America and Wachovia, today also.
It will show up in a few days.
even Giuliani just admitted on CNN that the repubs did not vote against it because of Pelosi's speech. no one's gonna believe that.
"my daughter is a good girl, other kids made her do it"
CBS
>>FLGOP isn't bad either becky sharp. Always backed up claims when asked.
yeah sorry - I know there are some other OK conservatives here too. It's just they tend to get drowned out by the caps-lock brigade
In the interest of fairness - I should post this from the UK Independent. It's about Biden and it ain't pretty
Extract....
"For all the longevity of his tenure, Biden does not deserve the description lavished on him last month by the Los Angeles Times (among others) as "an acknowledged foreign policy sage". He voted against using American military force to remove Saddam Hussein's army from occupied Kuwait, but voted for the American invasion of sovereign Iraq in 2003. Later, he voted against the "surge" which has brought a degree of stability to that benighted country, proposing instead that it be allowed to break up along ethnic lines – the now discredited "Biden Plan". Experience is a wonderful thing, of course – but only if you learn the right lessons from it."
Check out Karl Rove's Electoral Map here:
http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0036/McCain-Obama_09_28_08.pdf
259-163 Obama
Tossups: NV, MN, MO, IN, OH, NH, VA, NC & FL.
That's fucking horrible for McCain.
I still think the Biden plan was better for Iraq. Ain't no way this "country" stays together once we leave.
Well on that one thing, even patreaus (SP?) has said that ethnic clensing and the construction of defensible enclaves is what reduced the violence, which is essentially breaking up along ethnic lines. (Surge helped build it faster, but the decision to do it wasn't part of the surge, was a change in strategy by patreous himself).
maybe, but not supporting Bush Sr's action to free Kuwait - yet supporting Bush Jr's later adventure?
inexcusable
Nate, you have to be more careful. You are getting quoted on nationals now - at least watch the bloody video before commenting on it! Or it might come back to bite you - or, in this case, the Dems/Pelosi, if the meme gets out that she deliberately sabotaged it (personally I think the speech was fine and the reps are little children btw).
In general i've come to accept that 80% of the people at the time wanted a war with iraq, heck i was lukewarm to the idea. So I find that vote shortsighted but in line with the people at the time. Bush 1 though, i do agree bad vote.
What about the dems who voted against the bailout?.
I think I can build a convincing case for laying the failure today and the responsibility for the economy in McCains lap.
If He hadn't grandstanded last week the committee would have had a bill on Saturday and got a vote before the voter resistance got a head of steam. By disrupting and stoking the fires for personal gain, since he really had no idea WTF was going on, he is now on the hook until the house passes something.
Plus the astoundingly stupid man tries to grab credit before the vote. So he picked up the murder weapon so to speak...but not before getting the victims blood all over his clothes.
you know its getting good when you can see the yellow line peeking out below the red one
Pollling update!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't know why any Obama supporter, including myself, would be worried with these polls from rasmussen. Just think about it, Rasmussen has been known to have a republican lean and still they give Obama +8 in PA, +3 Virginia, and tied in FL. I mean come on. Even the -1 in OH is good news for him. I wouldn't worry about the +1 in colorado since polls have been trending obama. Those polls are absolutely good news for the Obama camp. Then you have Gallup polling giving Obama +8 nationally. Great day for polling!
Scroll down until you see the pic of Pelosi... then look at the pic below her... guy flippin birds.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2093481/posts
thanks fred - I just closed my blogger and everything.
*spank*
Apparently, it is too much to ask that politicians (Democrats and Republicans) actually do something for the benefit of their country at the risk of personal sacrifice to themselves.
www.approximatingpoliticaltruth.com
1.1 Trillion dollars in equity lost in the Dow drop alone today.
Thanks, repukes.
@realistxxx
Thanks. I'm going outside to throw up now.
dj-
We love these numbers, with
va alone, obama wins
The wingnuts are trying to say the whole bailout was Pelosi's idea now and moaning about socialism.
Can you say People's Republic of Goldman Sachs?
fred I was doing the math.
If Obama can poach Virginia then it's all but over.
I actually think he can win Florida.
More confident about it now.
Sorry to all but I think this bailout bill as "revised" by the democrats sucked. It's yet to be seen if the Repubs punked them. Will financial armaggedon happen now that Congress had to leave for the holidays. (Huh? I thought all the hasty ram job was because Congress had to save the world)
The original bill should have been thrown out; better if Dems had crafted their own. The "principles" that the Dems included were revised bill were window dressing. It was essentially the same, tired, unconstitutional bill that Paulson drafted. Exec Comp restrictions = toothless and so limited, insurance, oversight and asset price = all to be determined as TREASURY saw fit. Even the supposed tranches of funding was stacked against future opposition. Taxpayers making money on this eventually -- ha, ha (using the Greed Card).
The dems rolled (sort of like what happened to similar to Iraq Resolution). Yes, McCain mishandled himself and won't likely recover. But thankfully,
it wasn't just Reps that opposed this monster bill
Here's the secret...this sucker was going down -- with or without this bill. Massive consolidation in financial sector, higher costs for borrowing money and limited credit. Unemployment will climb and homes will be lost.
Now can Congress draft a real rescue bill because it is needed? Just not this one.
Disclosure (conservative crossing the aisle to vote for Obama in primary and plan to in the general, never wavered since Feb)
You guys just don't get this. The TV doesn't get this. The same reason so many people want change in government is the same reason people I know want the top of the economic pyramid in this country to dry up and blow away.
I talked to 10 folks at work today, all over the political, ethnic and age spectrum. All of them said the same thing, "let it burn, we'll suffer through a recession and rebuild on the other side better than before."
This was AFTER seeing the 700 point drop (I'm on the west coast).
NOW we have new polls!
huh? Where?
I wonder if I can bring any of my conservative friends to my view that America should switch to a parliamentary system if they knew that Pelosi would be honor-bound to resign after what happened today.
"huh? Where?"
Not new polls, new polling update. The model is updating.
Obama is a brilliant poker player and he and Pelosi just helped House Republicans lose the election for John McCain. Once again, they called his bluff.
60% of Democrats voted for the bailout after Congressional leaders agreed on delivering at least half of their respective delegations.
That number was not accidental. It’s just enough to show good faith and low enough that without a Republican effort, the bill would not pass.
McCain bragged that he would deliver votes and was bragging through surrogates this morning. Here’s what McCain staff and surrogates were saying before the vote:
“This bill would not have been agreed to had it not been for John McCain… This is a bipartisan accomplishment, a bipartisan success. And if people want to get something done in Washington, they just watch John McCain. He’s been the guy whose name is at the top of major pieces of legislation for a long time.”
– Mitt Romney, NBC’s Today show, 9/29/08
“What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table, including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this”
– Steve Schmidt, NBC’s Meet the Press, 9/28/08
“We’re optimistic that Senator McCain will bring House Republicans on board without driving other parties away, resulting in a successful deal for the American taxpayer.”
– McCain spokeswoman Kimmie Lipscomb, 9/26/08
McCain has the worst of both worlds
[a] His party killed the bailout
[b] He is for the bailout
[c] He looks weak because he can’t control his own party
In strategy, this is a checkmate for McCain.
Democrats can honestly say, “Look we rounded up the maximum votes we could. This vote is difficult for us all and we showed bipartisanship by supporting a Republican administration that asked for this. Republicans only delivered 33% of their votes.”
The outcome of this vote will divide the GOP for many years to come. Let’s see what McTactic will do next.
the inkstain how are the people of Williston? What is there to do?
Seeing Dennis Kucinich and Maxine Waters in an alliance of convenience with GOP conservatives today was fascinating. I would have voted no too as would most Americans according to the polls.
God help us if Bawney Fwank is our financial savior.
McCain's crazy suspension gambit has tied him to the bailout mess in voters' minds. Unless this is resolved this week, he has no chance in November. If it is resolved this week he has some chance. He needs to sat away from Washington and stop looking like a Beltway creature. Barack has played this just right.
The one Rasmussen number that gives JM some hope is being down just 1 point in CO, following ARG's good number for him there. If he stays even in FL and OH he'll get those but it won't matter if he loses CO or VA while not picking up a midsize at least Kerry state.
Someone coming out of a coma right now and looking at the supertracker would wonder at the magnitude of a gaffe that could cause such a sudden, sharp and sustained uplift for Obama
"the inkstain how are the people of Williston? What is there to do?"
They are nervous about oil prices, and their pastime is complaining to me about local sports coverage.
The meme is already out: This was Pelosi's fault. She injected the partisanship into this and wound up ruining the bill's chances.
Obama has failed to show any leadersip on this issue, to the point where it has been widely reported that while he was calling a few Dems in Congress to garner support he himself had refused to enunciate support for the Bill.
While Barack was trying to vote "present", McCain can be seen to have identified the key issue House Repulbicans were not on board.
The shameful truth is that while he tried to make things right the Dems in Congress lead by the crooks Dodd, Frank and Reid and their allies in the media shouted him down.
Obama should have postponed the debate on Friday and worked with McCain, the Prez and Congress to solve this thing.
Into this vaccum of leadership, stepped the American people who revolted against this problematic legislation, rejecting the Paulson plan overwhelmingly.
This bail out needs to be paid for by Wall St, not Main St. Let's see who has the courage to stand up for the people.
It aint over till the 5th becky.
Bay Area Resident said...
I heard one of the republican house members (can't remember which one), saying they were going to "Call Paulsons bluff" this weekend.
I believe they got their own bluff called when the market dropped almost 800 pts. My guess is they were not expecting that. NOW they will see the feebleness and fickleness of the "angry white men" they represent, who will all now fear their job loss.
The market will be down again tomorrow. It should be noted the S&P and Nasdaq were dwon even more than the Dow. The market was flat last week. It was due to tumble this week without a bill. I imagine we're close to a bottom if we get a bill soon. No bill and we could probably lose another 20%. Stock market and real estate for that matter. This could get super-ugly. The Dems have to decide whether they want to tweak it to get a few more votes or write their won bill and pass it and dare Bush to veto it. The RepubliCONS stupid idea coming from Cantor is the biggest turd of an attempt at a piece of legislation that I've seen. That combined with his performance on Hardball, I think he should give up his political career.
BTW, Obama's up 1 in the Ras Ohio poll
The model is indeed updated
Obama is on 329 (was 325) EVs
Thank goodness we know that a pig in lipstick is still a pig.
petekent - one of these days you will learn that just because all your conservative blogs agree on a point, doesn't mean that the entire country has bought it.
"It aint over till the 5th becky."
Early voting FTW.
hey, pigs are cute
DavidD said...
Disclosure (conservative crossing the aisle to vote for Obama in primary and plan to in the general, never wavered since Feb)
You guys just don't get this. The TV doesn't get this. The same reason so many people want change in government is the same reason people I know want the top of the economic pyramid in this country to dry up and blow away.
I talked to 10 folks at work today, all over the political, ethnic and age spectrum. All of them said the same thing, "let it burn, we'll suffer through a recession and rebuild on the other side better than before."
This was AFTER seeing the 700 point drop (I'm on the west coast).
-------------
Cool that. No bellyaching, though.
mmmKay?
I have been taking a bath with my investments these past 2 weeks and would rather not see things burnt to the ground, thanks very much.
Then again, I'm still in good shape. I wish I hadn't booked that trip for my wife's birthday in October to Bora Bora and Moorea, however.
If everything goes down, I'll need to let go my gardener, house cleaner and nanny. But they'll be cool with that because they love sticking it to the man.
Who was it that bet me that Colorado or the national percentages would be below 50% for Obama at some point on this site's model?
I'm still feeling pretty good about that bet.
"I talked to 10 folks at work today, all over the political, ethnic and age spectrum. All of them said the same thing, "let it burn, we'll suffer through a recession and rebuild on the other side better than before.""
Are all of these people's jobs secure? I mean, seriously, if double digit employment hits and sticks around for several years, which it could if the credit contraction really becomes extended...are people really comfortable with the idea of tens of millions of job-seeking adults jobless for several years in a high-inflation, bad-for-stock-return market?
I say this as someone whose job is extremely secure, but this is not just a simple recession, and I suspect a lot of the people who say "let's just suffer through it" are not the people who would really suffer.
The "let it crash and rebuild" people seem to think we're on the brink of a normal recession and the politicians are trying to avoid it.
That's not the case. The recession is going to happen. Period. End of story.
They are trying to avoid an utterly cataclysmic meltdown of the entire global financial system. This isn't a "Unemployment up, a couple-years-of-belt-tightening" scenario we're trying to avoid. That's what we're hoping to achieve.
@davidd...
We're fucked if we do, and we're fucked if we don't. The incestuous nature of economics is far beyond my mental capacity but the very least... I know I need a fucking job.
No we're trying to avoid an economic depression.
The failure of the bailout was from Bush & Paulson. I have yet to hear a coherent economic argument (and I have a BA in Economics) from them of why such a ridiculous sum of money would help, not hurt, the US economy.
What I don't get is how they got Pelosi and Reid to so eagerly carry their water for them.
I'm a Democrat (although I voted Republican before 2002), but I applaud the Republicans for stopping this nonsense. At the very least, we need to have a long, reasoned debate without the glare of politics (and John McCain) breathing down our necks.
The best thing could happen is for Congress to adjourn and let the new administration handle things with the new Congress.
BTW Obama has locked up the baby boomers. Their in that 50-65 range and when they see their 401K's they'll need to re-calculate their retirement dates.
Check out the crosstabs on many polls. Obama is now up 4-5% with the 50-65 age group now.
Great moments of McCain judgement #26567:
"What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table, including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this."
-- McCain campaign strategist Steve Schmidt, on Meet the Press yesterday, taking early credit for getting House Republicans to support the bailout bill.
I don't see how it should have moved up to 83% when Ras CO and VA were relatively poor polls for Obama, and the +1 in Ohio was merely adequate.
Theres a good one page summary of the Bill here, btw. WSJ, so it comes from the Mordoch Distortion empire, but still good
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122265013693884223.html?mod=article-outset-box
Trevor - there was a net movement in those states towards Obama
Well it's pretty clear this guy looks good:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1594670870/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top
Just to add to the sadness, here's an excerpt from an angry five-star reviewer:
"Time will tell who is right on this issue. To take the facts and go against an angry mob of dumacrits that are praying for a failing economy and war takes courage. Although it is far safer to argue with facts than volume and velocity."
Time will tell indeed, my friend.
They were in a prisoner's dilemma. I won't elaborate, but whoever knows economics can see the parallel.
The prediction markets are out of control right now. Obama widened his lead over McCain by over 8 points just today on Intrade.
It's plainly obvious how this is going to play to the public, and the prediction markets know it:
McCain claims to be a 'maverick' who will reach across the isle and get things done. So why couldn't he even get his OWN PARTY to cough up the required votes on this bill?
Pelosi, Obama, and the Democrats come out of this smelling like roses. It's an "I told you so" and "tsk, tsk, look what you Republicans did!" moment for them wrapped all up in one.
The only way this could get any better is if Obama rode in and convinced some Dems (and maybe even a few Reps) to change their votes and pass a bill.
I can't wait to see the national trackers 2-3 days from now.
Becky Sharp said...
Great moments of McCain judgement #26567:
"What Senator McCain was able to do was to help bring all of the parties to the table, including the House Republicans, whose votes were needed to pass this."
-- McCain campaign strategist Steve Schmidt, on Meet the Press yesterday, taking early credit for getting House Republicans to support the bailout bill.
------------
Eerily similar to their campaign ad claiming they won the debate before they were even officially attending.
Premature joculation is common in the elderly.
"I don't see how it should have moved up to 83% when Ras CO and VA were relatively poor polls for Obama, and the +1 in Ohio was merely adequate."
Simple:
1) One day off the calendar and the Obama lead didn't subside in the national polling. That's one more day to prove that it's real to the model, and one less day for Obama to turn it around.
2) Rasmussen has an R+2 house effect, and the model accounts for that. It treats Colorado as O+3 and Virginia as O+5, confirming his lead in both states.
3) The day's polling confirmed yet again that the door in Pennsylvania is essentially shut. Without winning at least one mid-size Kerry state, McCain has virtually no chance of winning, so hurting his odds there hurts him more than anything.
I disagree that Pelosi and Obama comes off well in this. Pelosi it appears goaded the oppostion into opposing the Bill and could not corral her own members to vote for it.
Obama has shown no leadership and only cursory attention to the matter. This is a sign of weakness. As the ostensible challenger more is demanded of him and he is not putting out.
"one less day for Obama to turn it around."
One less day for McCain to turn it around, that is.
inkstain do you think the McCain campaign would ever pull the plug on PA?
Redirect to WI or MI?
PeteKent said...
I disagree that Pelosi and Obama comes off well in this.
-------------
Knock me over with a feather.
"I disagree that Pelosi and Obama comes off well in this."
You thought there was no way the McCain-Palin convention bounce could fade.
Obama's polls went up.
You thought early responses to the economic crisis favored McCain.
Obama's polls went up.
You thought the debates were in McCain's favor.
Obama's polls went up.
Hey, somebody manufacture something, quick. Oh... wait... no one knows how.
petekent - and McCain's leadership on this matter? (leadership not posturing)
pete,
Obama or Pelosi don't come off well in this.
The more accurate statement is that McCain et. al. come off looking poorly.
new post
Hey PeteKent!
Where do you think the polls will be a week from now?
"I disagree that Pelosi and Obama comes off well in this."
No one comes off well in this. McCain, by acting like an idiot and claiming credit for the bill before it passed and blaming Obama (!!), comes off much, much worse than Obama, who preached patience and calm.
Seriously, issues aside, ANYONE who would rather want McCain's temperament in office than Obama's is beyond me.
Please explain why Obama will fall (in essay form) and actually lose the election even though every candidate except Dewey (and Gore if you are so inclined) who was ahead at this point won in the end.
New thread.
"inkstain do you think the McCain campaign would ever pull the plug on PA?"
They can't, they are too invested. That's tantamount to giving up on the race entirely.
With VA and CO looking strong for Obama, if they give up on PA, what path do they have?
Wisconsin wouldn't be enough to turn the EV around, and Michigan would only bring it to a tie if the Democrats won NH. And neither of them looks particularly appealing in the polling.
They have to push back Virginia and Colorado from their clear Obama trends, then they can figure out if they want to refocus any attacks.
Inkstain do you think Obama will be able to exercise any cash advantage over the next five weeks?
When Chris Mattews, a die hard McCain admirer, said that he failed to show leadership and failed even to do what he said he was going to do, bring the republicans to the deal, then he has failed and everyone can see it outside the redstate Meatkent bubble
Because people have asked. Yes, my coworkers have fairly crappy, fairly secure jobs and even if they have to take slightly more crappy jobs ... well, there's not much down from here.
And yes, I won't belly ache. One of the poorest people I work with (the secretary/office-all-things) lost about $10,000 of her $75,000 retirement account today.
She was the first person to say, "I'm not retiring for 20 years, I'll make it back."
And guess what folks-who-lost *money* today, you'll make it back too! You are all such whiners.
You do realize you never had that money to begin with, right? You do understand that there are risks to investment, right? Just checking.
Anyway, my whole point is that whether I belly-ache or not later on, I'm right about the *pulse* on this one and both parties better wake up quick.
Good thing you are a mom, Charlottemom, and not a VP at Bank of America over there.
We don't have time to "craft the perfect bill". Credit markets are frozen and soon salaries will not be paid due to it. This is something we have to swallow for the good of the country and its unfortunate that large groups of the constituency don't understand.
Tonight on the news hour the politico reporter just announced the Chamber of Commerce and Business roundtable are going to put hard pressure on republicans to pass this or some bill. The 800 pt drop and loss of one trillion in market valuation woke up the sleeping giant.
Obama has a tenuous claim to legitimacy. In this regard he is at a distinct disadvantage to say an Al Gore or John Kerry who were both well-established public figures when they ran. At a time of crisis they make plausbile leaders. Obama by contrast has a sketchy bio and limited expereince he would make an unlikely Knight in Shining Armor.
The worse this crisis is perceived as being the more likely that the electorate will feel it must turn to McCain to solve it.
Pete, just two weeks ago McCain refused to accept that there was a crisis.
JJ:
You are a nut! Matthews a die hard McCain admirer!
Vanessa:
Spare us the talking points. if you are ferring to that fundamentals of the economy are strong thing he did not mean it the way obama and the media spun it and you know it.
Did you know that obama has never said that he supported the failed bill?
How convienent now!!!
The fact that BHO has no national reputation is precisely WHY he is winning.
right wing conspiracist wrote:
Obama is up +5 and +9 respectively in the two tracking polls.
That's a difficult margin to sustain, and even then, he hasn't put those toss up states away yet.
Neither has McCain "put those toss-up states away". Florida is a must-win for McCain, and it's currently tied (RR). It's been over six months since McCain broke 50% in VA (RR). Even at McCain's high-water mark, he only was at 51% in OH (RR). He's never broken 50% in Indiana or Nevada (RR).
McCain can't just "be competitive"; at some point he has to consistently pull ahead.
Also,
KS and MS: 6 points behind Bush 2004.
ID, NE: 7 points behind Bush 2004. WY: 12 points behind Bush 2004.
These are deep-red states showing declines in base support over the past four years. McCain will win them this time, but these may be the new toss-ups in 2012.
couchpotatoxxx12 wrote:
Minnesota, less likely. It will probably always be a toss up, even though we all know it's going to the dems...I guess it must be from the RNC convention there.
Rasmussen polled O +8 in MN ten days ago. I've seen DFL internal polling here in MN, and I am fairly confident that these polls that show MN close are over-sampling the rural areas, for whatever that is worth.
People seem to be completely unaware of how the externalities of this will affect them. The plan isn't need just to save some fat-cats or investment houses. The entire banking system is teetering on the edge of failure. You have a seized up engine and the injection of funds from the government (however distastful it may be) would be the oil to get it moving again. If this doesn't go through, you aren't talking about some bankruptcies, you aren't talking about a recession, you aren't talking about making it back in several years, you are talking about the complete failure of our economy. You can't "make it back" when large chunks of it are simply wiped off the books because the stock becomes worthless and the government or some other big investor (sovereign wealth fund, Buffet, Chinese gov.) steps in to get preferred debt that puts you out of the picture.
I'm sure the comfort that you didn't "bail out Wall Street" will keep you warm at night when you lose your job because the business you work for couldn't get an intra-day credit loan because the money market mutual funds have frozen.
I really don't get why there's a disconnect here.
We all know that this will hurt everyone, including us.
We are also aware that over the long-term the economy will recover and grow.
What we known even more is that when it does grow it will be new businesses that make it grow. Yes, that means current business failing.
Just think long-term.
Does McCain have anything on his schedule for Un-Suspending his campaign ?
McCain can retire to his Sedona porch, "Hey, you kids! Get away from my desert!"
...which one?
The margin wasn't as wide as it appeared (sorry if I'm duplicating). As soon as it became clear that the roll call was going to fail, there were undoubtedly defectors who would've voted aye for a successful measure. There's no upside to supporting a failing bill that's unpopular. I'd be willing to bet the actual margin was only one or two votes. Five at the absolute most. Even congressmen can count better than that.
They blame Pelosi's comments? She...what? Hurt their feelings, so they took their votes and went home? Children, children...
Let me first state that I am an extremely enthusiastic Obama supporter.
Let me now state that a failure to pass this bailout is a huge travesty to our nation. The financial system is built, right now, on twigs (of mortgages, of derivatives, of back-office deals), and we needed this bill.
McCain jumping in was great for Obama -- but it was awful for our country. So transparent and obviously triggering partisanship run amok. Pelosi's speech, also, was hideous for our country, even if it turned one Republican from the bill. Cantor is a jerk for admitting that the speech caused some defections.
And they are all deeply unpatriotic, including Pelosi. We need a financial solution. The markets are desperate because they are built on a house of cards. As an Obama supporter, I feel the need to be true to my beliefs. We personally need to have a value system, as a belief in protecting the American people from financial destruction, and hold our leaders -- not just McCain but Pelosi as well -- responsible for the roles they play in not living up to these values.
This is nothing to do with Nancy Pelosi.
Check this:
Iowa Republican Steve King on McCain's Responsiblity for the Bailout failure - "If it had not been for John McCain injecting himself into this, it would have, this bill would have passed. I believe that"
As an Australian who has the luxury of living in a country of well regulated banks, with only small exposure to the US subprime crisis and very healthy balance sheets I can afford to be worried but not terrified while watching the the desperate attempts of US politicians to stabilise their economy. This morning I watched as members of the house of congress threw away what would seem to have been their best opportunity to deal with the situation in the short term.
Imagine my surprise to hear Republican Steve King from 5th District of Iowa on Australia's national news radio network praising John McCain's role in preventing the bailout package from going ahead.
Audio is available here: http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/newsradio/audio/20080930-king.mp3
The entire exchange is quite revealing. No mention whatsoever is made about Nancy Pelosi's speech. Instead it is the ideological cast of the legislation that is identified as being the source of the offence to Republican congressman. Moreover towards the end of the interview, Steve King identifies John McCain as being the one factor in the equation that preveted the bill from being passed.
"If it had not been for John McCain injecting himself into this, it would have, this bill would have passed. I believe that"
Rather than looking for a bipartisan solution, a solid Republican majority in the House are more interested in an ideologically driven free market solution that would leave mainstream America dealing with the fallout of a substantial market correction.
If John McCain's lukewarm support of the bill has sent mixed messages to the public, it would seem the message to Republican members of the House has been heard loud and clear.
The full transcript is included below.
Transcript:
Steve King:
I am happy to Australian's today. I hope their attitude is a little fresher than some of the attitudes in Washington DC today.
Reporter:
Well we are certainly wondering what is going on over there. The Treasury Secretary, your President, your party's own Presidential candidate in John McCain, They all say that this deal is needed. Why do you and 227 other Congress men and women say 'Not this deal'?
Steve King:
We say not this deal because it is not a free market solution it is a government... it is a government solution, and to some extent a government takeover of the private market. Even to a government takeover of the speculators market.
So it is $700 Billion to bail out Wall Street speculation and it is at the expense of Main Street America. There are better solutions out there and the only way we can get to the table with better solutions is to vote no on this package. There were no amendments allowed and it came to the floor take it or leave it. We decided to leave it.
Reporter:
Congressman, the Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says that the tools in his toolkit are not sufficient, and that he will have to keep pressing to get what they need from you in congress. Do you think that enough of your congressional colleagues are going to be won over? Only a dozen votes are needed to change their minds on this. Are a few little tinkering changes going to get you over the line?
Steve King:
I don't know. For me the tinkers won't help me much, I want to see fundamental changes, I want to see real reform, and we need to reform the Fanny Mae and Feddy Mac, the government sponsored enterprises that have been the foundation of bad mortgages that have driven up the price of real estate. It was a correction that is necessary.
I will say that the administration does have the tools. Right now the accounting system that we use is call mark to market. That means the banks and the lending institutions have to adjust their balance sheets exactly according to the market on those securities and right now there is no market. So that means the value is zero. We know they have a lot more value, because underneath that is the real estate and if you are going to presume that mark to market is zero, then that implies that the houses themselves that collatorise this are worth zero. We know better than that, they are probably worth 75 or more percent of what is on the back of that paper.
Reporter:
Congressman, there is a sense of urgency about this. The pressure with which this was hammered out at the weekend. It seemed the clock was ticking. After this no vote today, Wall Street delivered it's verdict with it's biggest ever single day decline. There must be tremendous pressure to say we need to do something now, we haven't got time to do systemic reform, that is for further down the track.
Steve King:
Well that is a good point, but in the short term what we can do is suspend mark to market and have actually a real market value established on those securities and then the next thing we can do is make sure our FDIC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that guarantees the deposits in our banks can go into these banks and issue the net worth certificates that will put the collateral into any banks that people wonder about. Those two things should stabalise this market and then the market should be able to make the adjustments.
Now it may be that we have to buy up some of these mortgages from a taxpaper standpoint, but to do all of that and not put the changes in place... I can tell you. I know Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank and Steny Hoyer too well to believe that there are any reforms that will come through this congress if we give $700 billion off to Wall Street.
Reporter:
Of course to a lot of people this is just an example of the partisan gridlock that has affected congress for a very long time and that given that there is an election, you are all facing it in five weeks from now, that gridlock is likely to continue. What do you see happening from here?
Steve King:
I think that what has happened already is that we have broken up into our groups, sat back down and started to put our proposals together. I know that for me that I have had meetings with... a whole series of different meetings and I have picked up a stack of paperwork and now I am going to pore through that and lay out the things that I believe can sustain themselves on the negotiating table. I am going to ask my colleagues to do the same and come with a free market solution to this and put it on the table.
I think that another thing they did with this was they tried to do a hybrid, that means a cross between a government solution and a free market solution and it turned into oil and water. The oil and water separated in congress today and that is the biggest reason the bill failed on the floor. I think we need to go one way or the other. It is either going to be a free market, or it is going to be a government solution. If it is a government solution, I will be a no vote. If it is a free market solution you can generally count on me to stand with the free markets, and I think the world is far better off in the long run.
Reporter:
Your party's presidential candidate John McCain certainly injected himself into this process last week. He suspended his campaign, he called on the first presidential debate to be put off until a deal was reached. Is this going to reflect badly on him that you are still at this point now?
Steve King:
Well I know that the other side has lined up and turned this into a partisan discussion and I will say this. If it had not been for John McCain injecting himself into this, it would have, this bill would have passed. I believe that, and I believe that the 700 billion taxpayer dollars in one great big cheque, I will say a blank cheque to Henry Paulson or the Secretary of the Treasury would have already have been passed... at least out of the House and on it's way to the Senate... But he has given us an opportunity to provide a free market solution, that is to John McCain's credit. If he is not in this equation then we've got, I think, not a real solution, but a big governement proposal where the cure is worse than the disease.
Reporter:
Many thanks for your time today congressman.
Steve King:
Many Thanks John. Goodbye.
NYSE had a market capitalization of $25 trillion in 2006.
An 8% drop represents about $2 trillion of wealth wiped out.
Tell me: why is congress wiping out $2 trillion/day because they are worried about hitting the taxpayer with some fraction of $700 billion?
davidd, sorry but the reason you don't get why there is a disconnect on this bill, is it is because you obviously have no skin in the game. You are either too young to care, or you don't have any need for capital, or you are too far removed because you work in a big company and don't see working capital, etc. I am sure most of the constituents complaining about this bill are just like you. HOWEVER, the majority of people that post on political blogs like this one are a little closer to capital markets. The fact is, business cannot make payroll without access to credit markets. Inventory can't be bought and we are in front of the holiday season (even though its going to be a crappy one). Maybe YOU don't care if business X fails and all the people work there lose their jobs, but that is not the majority of people in the country I can assure you. The problem is you are projecting a lot of platitudes like "business needs to reinvent" and other ideological statements that make it seem like you are a kid.
RWC--Funny you should mention Obama's Europe trip as a stumble for him--it was a short-term sacrifice for the triple long-term gains of looking Presidential, standing with world leaders on the world stage, and subtly reminding America what it'd be like to have America be *popular* abroad. In other words, it was Part I, and standing toe-to-toe with Mccain in the debate was Part II (the main reason Obama didn't constantly go after McCain; his goal was to reassure voters. He achieved that in spades.)
If memory serves, Obama actually took the trip abroad after McCain demanded Obama go abroad, thus removing a talking point for McCain, giving Obama loads of press coverage, largely positive, and making McCain look small and petty. (Obama's in Germany, so I'm gonna go to a German sausage factory in Pennsylvania! Wah! Wah!)
By the way, you want to be careful with words like "arrogance," since that's actually now exposed as code for "Uppity N-----." It's okay; you can feel free to say "Uppity N-----" instead; Republican Congressman Lynn Westmoreland had no trouble calling Obama uppity.
And clarke, you're right, it was a dumb move on Boehner's part, and fortuitous for the Dems. Boehner, however, is generally smarter than Gingrich and more prone to keep a low-profile, so it won't do the damage Gingrich's gaffe did--but I hear Eric Cantor is already plotting a challenge to Boehner--I'd say the more seats Republicans lose, the more likely that becomes.
Saying the Repubs were being unpatriotic was NOT about Bush. That was about pissing enough people off that votes they thought they were getting they now didn't. One of my Repub reps was publically in favor of the bill... all the way til yesterday. He voted no. She incited the anger to have the bill be struck down on purpose. It's so clear. And I'm an Obama voting Democrat... who thinks Pelosi is the worst thing that's happened to Washington. Except maybe for Bush... but it's close.
hi amy, i completely agree with you on pelosi here. it was a jumping the shark moment, as was boehner's comment that repubs left b/c of the comment. you may agree with me on this, but patriotism yesterday involved voting for this bill ... unless you were a brainless, monomaniacal "give me free market or give me death" repub. the spineless primarily repub but a lot of dems as well (one of my favorite, mark udall of colorado, who is running for a senate seat, voted for it as well) were UNPATRIOTIC ... putting their own job ahead of the obvious financial impact to the country. pelosi, mccain, cantor, and a ton of others failed to act for the country. bush, who is obviously abyssmal and, right now, unfortunately powerless was actually acting patriotic by trying his best, albeit pathetically, to convince the house that this bill was vital. obama rightly stayed on the sideline, b/c it was blatantly obvious that entering into the game would make it partisan. now, i think he should act, just to convince as many dems as possible to vote for the bill.
politics can be disgusting. yesterday, and last week, was as disgusting as it gets.
$1.2 trillion. treason.
Sound like a kid? I'm usually accused of sounding like a surly old man. I'll have to consider my style carefully, if I want to be more effective. I think I was at least sloppy with my emphatics.
I'm 36, have a retirement account and work for a company highly dependent on investment success for anything other than immediate needs (we don't need to borrow for payroll).
However, usually when people talk about kid-like thinking they refer to those who cannot delay gratification or to those who do not suffer hardship well.
That would be a better description of those for the bailout, than those like myself against it.
Perhaps this is a better tone than "let it burn" which can sound like it disregards consequence. It is rather the result of weighing consequences and making choices.
The market rewards good behavior in the long term. You'll be fine. Trust me.
To call a DOW drop of 7% a crater forgets that in 1987 it dropped 22.6% on black Monday. 7% is the continuation of the revaluation.
The recovery so far today of 2% just illustrates that the Stock Market is not a good marker, and most people will quickly dismiss it as such.
Additionally, if you listen to the members of congress that voted no on both sides of the aisle, they all had good reasons for not supporting the bill, not the least of which was that it was more "kneejerk ram it down their throats" stuff from the Bush administration.
The Republicans who voted for the bill are blaming the Democrats who voted for the bill for the bill failing?
I guess I am brainless then because I do not want this bailout. And maybe I can’t talk because at 30 my husband and I have little to no money in the market. But we are taxpayers.
Our economy is self-correcting and the ramifications of government or any other type of intervention scares me to death.
I also disagree with the blame of this falling on low income mortgage lending. If 146 million households defaulted on $100K each that would be $146 billion, not $700 billion. Not, it’s not the low income housing initiatives; it is the people who thought they sailed under a lucky star with their low interest only payments. Those mid to mid-upper income people whose mortgage payment went from $1800 a month to $3600 a month overnight are who is now defaulting on their $400000 mortgage.
My husband and I bought our home in June for $175K. We bought what we could afford and people like us are not the problem. It’s the house & car rich-money poor, keeping up with the Jones’, greed hounds that are now the problem.
Like I said, I don’t have much money in the market, but I am a taxpayer and I bought my home responsibly.
The ramifications of interference in the market today will be disastrous down the road. It’ll make yesterday feel like a walk in the park.
The economy self-regulates and resets. It may not be quick and times may be hard for a bit, but it will come back into line.
The fallout from a bailout will be categorically worse. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but it will happen. You can count on it.
hi amy, you are absolutely correct that you were responsible in the way you purchased your house -- and far too many americans were not across the repub and dem base. we are FAR more leveraged than we were in the past, and this is very bad. that is the fault of many, including the people who made those purchases, the govt who paved the way for too much lending, and predatory lendors. all took advantage of a too-good-to-be-true situation.
but the economy is far more involved than you lay out here. it isn't just the mortgage ... it is the financial institutions that spent 10x as much as the loan itself in crazy instruments on top of the loan (derivates as the credit swaps). it is super complicated, but it is bad. it should have been regulated and needs to in the future.
this is not a dem or repub issue. if we duck our heads in the sand and pledge allegiance to the almighty and pure free market capitalism, we will have a crash. doing nothing is simply wrong ... we have no choice.
capitalism and free market ... and regulation ... are not incompatible. free market without regulation is stupid.
The new bill will pass 228 to 205 on Thursday.
The extremes of either party have reeked havoc on this country for thirty years now. Not to mention that the process is controlled by Wall Street and corporate money.
From a political standpoint, though, the image in the public's mind is that the GOP has let their Wall Street friends run amok. For shame! Nancy Pelosi speaks of the partisanship that led us to this point and they get offended? Any excuse in a storm, I guess.
If there are 175 Republicans in the House in the next Congress, I would be really surprised.
Millions of Americans will be receiving their quarterly 401K statements in the next week. Not to mention, millions of Americans will be getting their first shipment of heating oil for the winter and the costs are doubled in '08 compared to '07.
If John McCain thinks the last three weeks have been bad, the next 15 days may be worse. Yet, he will still get 45% of the vote.
Get ready for the October Surprise, folks.
Just an alert, but what happens next will be a common sense step by the largest personal credit sources in the country: lowering the amount of available credit for every customer.
So, if you have a credit card with availability up to $35,000 and pay the minimum balance, you will be pinched down to $7,000. If you pay your balance off monthly, you will still be notched down to $17,500.
Why? Because cash is short. Why expose yourself to more risk in a cash strapped society? Banks will take these steps in response to the credit crisis and the bailout bill. It is common sense and actually a positive gesture to yor customers.
Another thing we need to rein in is the ability for credit card companies to permit minimum payments. Direct withdrawal in full is the standard mandate in Europe. You charge $400 to your card, you pay $400 at the end of the month.
It is imperative that we, the people, shift this society from a consumer society to a saver society.
According to the LA Times today, Palin believes dinosaurs and humans coexisted on earth. How could any educated person vote for a potential president who is so ignorant? She also thinks she knows more about climate change than the National Academy of Sciences although it took her six years and five schools to get a degree in telecommunications. That is evidence that she is not only ignorant, she is also arrogant.
ermm....
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