The more that I think about this, the more I think that the failure of the bailout package in Congress today was something of an inevitability -- perhaps the only way to right the perverse incentives that had been at work.
The Republicans' best-case scenario was the bill passing the House by one vote -- with as few as those votes as possible coming from Republicans.
Their worst-case scenario for them might have been ... what just happened this afternoon. Opposing the bailout had been a political freeroll before because it wasn't manifest to the public what the risks of a nay vote would be. But with the Dow having dropped 780 points today, the risks are now painfully obvious. What had looked to be a politically prudent position 24 hours ago now looks cavalier and reckless. And yet, the Republicans will still by and large will get blamed for putting us in this predicament in the first place. Plus, the failure of the bill is an embarrassment to John McCain...
I'm not saying that Pelosi's ostensibly partisan speech today (which I still haven't heard) was a deliberate attempt to sabotage the bill. The margin was such that the bill was almost certainly headed for failure regardless. But her risks were pretty well hedged if the bill failed -- much better, it turns out, than the Republicans' were. Roy Blunt and John Boehner ought to have known to build in a fudge factor. They didn't, and now their party is liable to suffer as a result.
9.29.2008
Pelosi Tips the Scales?
@ 6:55 PM
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Eric said...
I'm not loving those Rasmussen numbers. If their math is right (certianly it's not perfect) then Obama has a bit of a challenge. In Rasmussen polls alone Obama's up 5 nationally, but only 1 in Ohio and Colorado, 3 in Virginia, tied in Florida. The question becomes if McCain closes well, are we back to Kerry + IA + NM without a solid third state to push Obama over. It's quite possible Obama's up 4-5 points nationally, but up less than that in every tipping point state. Cause for some ptimism for McCain's camp. Even if Obam is up in North Carolina, Indiana, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, etc. he still needs to win more than Kerry + IA + NM. I would hpe that Obama polls well in Virginia and Colorado in the next couple weeks. The margins are thin from Rasmussen. On a much more positive note for Obama, 2 PA polls with him up 7 and 8. That is super Obama news. These polls indicate offense might be a little tougher to play down the stretch and defense a little easier for both camps really. I especially don't like that Colorado number.
Will McCain Re-suspend his Campaign?
Sept 29 Polling Update
Obama 292, McCain 246
i actually completely agree. everyone now sortof agrees that some form of a bill needs to pass. and after seeing the market plunge today, i think more and more people realize that something needs to be pushed through. or people will lose their jobs/life savings, etc.
but this bill was crap. Total crap. It was rushed, it was haphazard, it gave way too much to the Bush administration. It was a handout to Wall St.
which brings me to the main point. the big loser in this is the Bush administration. Sure, the Dems may look silly for trying to put through a crappy bill and then having it defeated. But I actually think it makes them look responsible. Like "Hey, we tried. Can't blame us". I think that's how the public will see this...
Oh, and John McCain looks like an idiot. I think Pelosi hedged her bets better than Boehner. Completely agree.
good post,
similar to what was being discussed in the previous post's comment. (although i don't think it was a ploy)
if the dems force it through on wed (or even tomorrow) with or without the reps, they are in a very good place.
they passed the necessary provision and can reap the benefit of it.
You are absolutely correct. You must have read my posts on the previous thread. This gambit will provide the cover the Dems need, while simultaneously making McCain and the house Republicans look like jagoffs. Today is total win by the Democrats.
The bill will be passed on Wednesday after two days of cascading drops in the DOW - oddly enough, thats the day the Democrats planned on having the Senate vote anyway.
McCain's speech today:
"Bipartisanship is important, not assigning blame. I'm acting bipartisan and not assigning blame. Its all those damn Democrats fault for not acting bipartisan and wanting to assign blame."
This is really an amazing piece of hypocrisy. I invite everybody to read his statement again for a lesson on how to have it both ways at once.
Incredible!!!
Hello all,
First-time poster. Love this site. Was wondering whether you could recommend any sites that are good about posting the most recent polls? I noticed the comment sections are filled with poll updates prior to Nate's daily tally. Thanks for your help!
The John McCain come to the rescue idea backfired. Many of the people I've been talking to, blame John for the bill's failure.
The Democrats come off an geniuses in this move. To put it succinctly -
Check. Mate.
Nate,
Good post. I agree, the Reps were trying to gain their own points for reelection while making both NcCain and Bush take very hard hits.
Do we see a party eating its own?
They have the Pelosi speech on Talking Points Memo: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/220712.php. A whiff of "we told you so" partisanship at the very beginning, and she mentions the demcratic position in a couple other places, but not exactly the divisive rhetoric Boehner and others made it out to be.
Great post Nate.
This was a tough choice for members of the house running for reelection. If they voted for the bailout and it passed, their opponents could attack them for approving an unpopular bill. If it did not pass, the Dow drops and the bill gains in popularity, which makes them look good in the eyes of their constituency. On the other hand, if they vote against it, and it passes. They are seen as congressmen who listen to their constituencies. But if it fails, and the economy is affected, they are seen as having poor foresight.
It is a tough position to be in, I dont blame those who voted against it.
Shh! Don't give away our secrets!
Oh wait. The bill won't flip from NO to YES until Obama comes into Washington and "convinces" 12 dems to change their votes. This is just the best day ever (Don't worry about the markets, it's temporary).
Pelosi's speech was anti-Bush, not anti-Republican. She even talked bipartisanship.
The repubs gambled, hugely, and lost.
Eric, I felt the same when I saw those numbers. Definitely, they are better than a McCain lead, and I would still bet on an eventual Obama win due to his on-the-ground advantage --- but this is the first time in a couple weeks that CO and VA have been polling below Obama's national average.
Then again, Rasmussen has always represented Obama's polling low end. And it is nice that Obama breaks 50% in Virginia for (I believe) the first time.
With PA, NH, and MI looking safer, I think Obama knows he has to spend the next month in VA, CO, NV, NC, and IN. Just has to get one...
I don't think Americans have any clue about the bailout and who's to blame yet. Are we for it, are we against it, who was for it, who was against it? I think people are just worried.
I'm not sure why Pelosi keeps putting her name on this thing. It's the Bush/Paulson plan - that should really be emphasized.
I think McCain officially lost the election today. It's now just a matter of by how much.
"Shh! Don't give away our secrets!"
Sorry... /whistle....
Yeah, this entire thing was Pelosi being stupid enough to bring a bill to the floor when she didn't have the votes....yeah, right. She's not stupid, she's devilishly clever.
Oh, and Florida. I keep forgetting it's back in play.
rbudayr,
try pollster.com or realclearpolitics.com
The DOW and NASDAQ cratering provides cover for many to vote yes now.
One of the arguments was that the bill wasn't needed.
The bill looks a lot better now.
I would love to see a poll on the opinions of Americans now.
Today the Dow lost ~8% and the Nadaq lost ~10%... however McCain on Intrade lost ~12%. LOL!
Fine with me. That bill sucked, as will any bill that has the input of financial industry lobbyists and their stooges in Congress and this Administration, however indirectly.
I don't know how today's events will play for either candidate. I certainly have the impression that neither campaign really understands how to spin the events of the last few days. I do know that, while some sort of action is necessary to prop up the US banking system, it should instantiate far more accountability to investors and bankers than has heretofore been evident, and assign maximal control to the American taxpayer as represented by ... well, I'm not sure who just yet, but someone other than anyone who has been suggested to date (Bernanke, Paulson, Congress).
There's a huge populist opening here for Obama if he can seize it. McCain's fundamentally blown his chance with his grandstanding of the last 72 hours.
Oh and Barney Frank and others had it right.
You voted against the bill because you didn't like a speech??
Are you f-ing kidding me?
Can you imagine if a Democrat had said pre-Iraq war "I think going to Iraq is a good thing. I support the policy but Bush gave an insulting speech so I'm going to vote against it"?
If you don't think its the right policy, take a principled stance against it. But never ever let petty gripes get in the way of what is best for the country.
What Boehner said was essentially:
"I preside over a caucus of kindergarteners. They agree with the principle of the policy but they let personality get in the way of really important decisions"
I'm still scratching my head over how he could say that out loud.
"I think McCain officially lost the election today. It's now just a matter of by how much."
Check. Mate.
Here is the excerpt from Pelosi's speech that is being passed around by the media:
"[W]hen was the last time someone asked you for $700bn? It is a number that is staggering, but tells us only the costs of the Bush administration's failed economic policies — policies built on budgetary recklessness, on an anything-goes mentality, with no regulation, no supervision, and no discipline in the system."
"Democrats believe in the free market, which can and does create jobs, wealth, and capital, but left to its own devices it has created chaos."
"Democrats insisted that legislation responding to this crisis must protect the American people and Main Street from the meltdown on Wall Street. The American people did not decide to dangerously weaken our regulatory and oversight policies. They did not make unwise and risky financial deals. They did not jeopardise the economic security of the nation. And they must not pay the cost of this emergency recovery and stabilisation bill."
"Today we will act to avert this crisis, but informed by our experience of the past eight years with the failed economic leadership … We choose a different path. In the new year, with a new Congress and a new president, we will break free with a failed past and take America in a new direction to a better future."
Nancy saying "Democrats will do their part, I hope Republicans do too." isn't partisan, it's laying out the reality. Dems went for the package 60-40. I've little doubt that that was precisely calculated, and Pelosi had more or less exactly 60% of Dems vote for it to do their part. Not enough to pass the bill alone, but enough to meet Bush and the Reps MORE than halfway, which is more than either deserves. Democrats will not and should not be on the hook alone for this bill.
Today marks the end for John McBush.
Good job America!
pelosi's speech is fine. and factual.
what on earth are the whining about?
For the poster who asked about a site displaying recent poll numbers, I use:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
It's important to note that the upcoming high holidays will further delay a bill from passing, which will lead to further concern among voters about the economy, followed with the Biden-Palin debate, there seems to be few openings for the McCain campaign to seize.
If that was the plan it was quite brilliant in terms of pure power politics. I sincerely hope that Obama will put an end to these maneuvers though, and I hope that the economy doesn´t suffer too much during these 2 days of uncertainty until a final, probably modified version of the bill passes.
I found it remarkable that Nancy Pelosi "promised" 140 Democratic votes, and that was exactly what they got. That surely sent the message that the Democrats got themselves under control. And it´s an obvious conclusion that John McCain will get what he deserves: a part of the "credit" for that failure.
Hmm, maybe the reason the Republicans voted against the bill has something to do with the flood of angry emails they've gotten in the past couple days. Maybe they're - gasp - listening to their constituencies.
"Oh, and Florida. I keep forgetting it's back in play."
I think it's safe to add MO back to that list too. The two most recent polls show McCain down to +1 and +2, and were taken BEFORE the debates and the worst of the bailout mess. I would be really interested to see what the numbers are like now.
"pelosi's speech is fine. and factual. what on earth are the whining about?"
They are whining because they got played like a fiddle.
Kerry + IA, VA, NM + winner, even without NH. I need to post this ten times, I still do not believe it.
We are safe 36 days out?
It can't be real, I am dreaming, I will find more money to give to dems tomorrow.
Wonderful how Wall Street can manipulate Congress into doing its bidding, isn't it?
And you know what? Plan or no plan, stocks will continue to fall.
Pelosi's actually been really smart here. She got enough Dems to back the bill so they don't get blamed for not passing the bill -the Republicans do- but not enough so that Wall St is bailed out. Win, win. That's why Republicans are so pissed.
What Boehner said was essentially:
"I preside over a caucus of kindergarteners. They agree with the principle of the policy but they let personality get in the way of really important decisions"
I'm still scratching my head over how he could say that out loud.
It's simple. I get re-elected in my swing district > McCain gets elected to the Presidency.
Boehner knows very well how this will play locally and nationally. He cares about 'locally'.
Check out Pelosi's "partisan speech" here. The one that had that moron Boner or whatever the fuck he calls himself pissing his pants.
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/09/hurt_feelings.html
Republicans are essentially abandoning McCain and trying to keep the base in line in order to stem the losses in the House and maybe the Senate.
Nancy Pelosi is on the list of boogeymen (right next to the New York Times and poor people) that they can always blame for problems, no matter how nonsensical, and earn a few base points.
There was nothing wrong with Pelosi's speech. The repubs using that as an excuse have made themselves look like whining, self-absorbed third-graders. Again. That is not why they didn't vote for it and it is the worst excuse since the dog ate my homework.
Barney Franks' response was priceless.
With economy fears on everyone's minds I bet the repubs are just thrilled that come Thursday night they will be represented by Palin to the whole country. Brilliant.
Most Democrats are Wall Street stooges, pure and simple.
Pelosi's speech was anti-Bush, and many of those who voted against it would like to say the same thing about W.!
For the lay person who still has a lot of years in the market before retirement, it is still hard to make sense of this bill.
It is clear though that McCain looks decidedly un-leaderly.
paul beat me to it by two posts. Great minds and such
Thank you for your help!
So, now that Obama has the presidential election in the bag, now we just need our 60 senate seats. :)
This is just a hilarious farce to me. On the one hand, the Republicans are loathe to support a bill they are afraid will be unpopular with their constituents, yet on the other hand, the longer they go without dealing with the crisis, the longer the issue stays out there, which is clearly of no benefit to McCain.
This morning they asked the question: would I rather keep my job or help put McCain in the White House? I'll tell you what I'd do if it were me...
"I think it's safe to add MO back to that list too"
you want to bet that In and even WV will be in taht same list next time they are polled?
Take all of your money out of the markets and buy Obama on Intrade.
The only investment going up in these tough times.
He's up 5.5 (~10%) today!
(/snark)
"We are safe 36 days out?"
Most elections are decided with 36 weeks out.
Demographics + economy = winner
This may be the first time I'm very thankful to the Republicans for blocking a bill that the Democrats supported. The bill was a travesty, most economists weren't in favor of it, and many economists were telling us it would be more likely to make the economy worse than to make it better. I'm very surprised and thankful that it didn't pass.
I saw a piece of Pelosi's speech on MSNBC earlier but they have since removed it (the article seems to change every time I go back, so I guess her words lost out in the scramble to cover every development). Would be great if you could dig up the transcript and post it. As I recall, her words were not really that inflammatory -- Republicans are just looking for someone, anyone, to blame.
It's really hard to imagine a worse two and half weeks for McCain/Palin, starting with the Charlie Gibson/Palin interview, the SNL skit, the financial crisis, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong," the Couric/Palin interview, the suspension (not really) of the campaign, Obama's debate win, McCain's failed attempt at leadership, another financial crash...
Am I missing anything else?
At least they can look forward to the Biden/Palin debate...oh wait.
The Democrats are letting John McCain and the Republicans get away with murder.
The greatest blog in history puts it in perspective.
I'd keep an eye on those white blue collar working class rustbelt states along with the frozen tundra states if I were you, libs.
We're at Obama's high water mark, and he's already beginning to slowly come down (see the Ras CO poll today, also lost one point in VA!)
The McCain camp is in so franetic right now. Their claim is Obama was absent and "phoning it in" while JM was in Washington (not on the Hill) "working the phones." Therefore JM was showing greater leadership.
Huh?
He still didn't deliver the votes. That would require leadership.
"The margin was such that the bill was almost certainly headed for failure regardless."
whaaat. If 7 people switched their vote to yes, it would have passed. Where did you get that?!
Everything about that North Carolina PPP looks right. Age groups, race ,etc. 1041 people over two days. onlys strange part is the dem/rep breakdown. possibly too many Dems?
Calm down with regards to CO, et al. that as of the current Ras. polls, are polling behind the national polls. The fact is, these states have been leaning Obama all along, and as mentioned above, were actually ahead of the national polls for a while.
What does this mean? If means that CO voters are already pretty decided compared to voters in other states. The giant surge is coming in states like NC, IN, PA, rather than those states where Obama had already won the economy game.
So, even if the natl polls tighten, I think we'd see the CO numbers stay relatively constant, whereas IN might flip red again, as might FL.
Chill. And go online and phonebank thorugh Obama's website while your waiting to refresh 538. Seriously, it's easy.
Barney's comment that he would go talk to the 12 republicans, who supposedly changed their mind based on Pelosi's speach, in "an uncharacteristically nice way" was brilliant. Made me lol
So, can this financial crisis be attributed to the Clinton Administration or attributed to the Bush administration?
That first link is a pretty amazing prophecy by the New York Times back in 1999.
Great minds and such
Indeed. Props to you too InkStain, for all you've gotten right.
It only remains that the Obama campaign not f*ck it up.
inkie-
True. But that never seems to happen to MY candidate.
I might just find some cash for Senate campaign committee tomorrow. I want the social conservatives and this repugnant streak of hate republicans killed for good. We need real conservatives like Will and fewer neo-cons like Kristol.
Go dems, kill, kill, kill!
"We're at Obama's high water mark"
Yeah, yeah, we heard it all before. What don't you get about the fact that the winner in late September/early October almost ALWAYS wins?
Pelosi has taken Hillary's place in Republican hatedom ever since they discovered that a new found respect for Hillary might be useful in peeling a few votes off from Obama.
John McCain "I call on Congress to get back, obviously, immediately to address this crisis," McCain said in Des Moines tonight.
But why aren't you there, John?
high water mark? Obama's sailing into the presidency.
It was a tactical error to not include language in the bill to help homeowners.
If there had been anything, anything at all, the swing state lawmakers could have played it to their advantage -- in both parties. They could have said, "Look, last week's bill was flawed, but this one has something for millions of American homeowners."
I think that this is the turning point in the elections. Pelosi's hyperpartison comments screwed the pooch. the video is all over the net and the evening news. Obama and Pelosi will be blamed for all of this.
I not only seeing McCain/Palin winning easily, I see the Reps picking up 15-20 seets in the house.
Look at it this way; it’s called the House of Representatives. The concept is these people, unlike the Senate, represent the people, not just their own judgment. If 9 out of 10 of their people tell them don’t bail out Wall Street 37 days before an election it is absurd to blame the house back benchers, republicans or democrats for not bailing out wall street. It is also absurd to ask the dems to pass the bill with little republican support for the same reason. The leadership failure is once again, George W. Bush, no surprise and no comfort either that 50% of us are getting the train wreak they deserve. The rest of us are on the train too. Somebody has to assemble a plan that can be sold to the American people, and the man who is president, and the two men who would be president have to get on the MSM big and brave and sell it to the American people. There is no free pass for presidents; their leadership is required when there is a crisis.
You do all know that Obam has NEVER been in a close election. It is almost like fate.
"I not only seeing McCain/Palin winning easily, I see the Reps picking up 15-20 seets in the house."
lol, damn, you are on some good drugs.
I wonder who's going to run against Obama in 2012...Romney? Palin?
To all you who freak out at a single state poll,
Isn't the whole point of this website to get a better picture of the election then one poll can provide? Don't you come here because you know that individual polls are not as reliable as these projections? Do you understand MOE?
"You do all know that Obam has NEVER been in a close election. It is almost like fate."
The primary wasn't close?
Eric's comment at the top of the page is very interesting. There seems to be a slight mismatch between the national polls and the state polls. The problem is that if Obama is doing better nationally, that performance must be taking place in safe Democrat states - but that doesn't seem to be true. States like Massachusetts and Rhode Island are not any more safe for Obama than for Kerry.
It is quite possible that McCain will win the electoral vote, and lose the popular vote.
"You do all know that Obam has NEVER been in a close election. It is almost like fate."
You'd have to be the most incompetent candidate in history to have ended up close in that Illinois senate race.
The first Republican candidate, it came out, liked to take his hot wife to kinky clubs against her will. The Republicans were then turned down by every reasonable candidate, toyed briefly with asking former Bears coach Mike Ditka, then decided they needed their own black guy. Unfortunately, they failed to find a single black Republican in Illinois, so they had to import one shortly before the election.
It was sad.
I think it's funny that the republicans are getting giddy over a Rasmussen O+1 Colorado poll.
Never thought they would get this desperate...lol, I guess they have no other choice now that PA and MI are in Obama's column.
The hugely "partisan" speech said the word Republican once. It railed mostly against Bush and Paulson, and only mentioned Congressional Republicans once in passing. The only way I could see it offending them was if they hold their ideology so sacrosanct that her talking about it as failing was heresy to them.
It wasn't the speech. It was a misguided political ploy, or just a lame excuse for failure to achieve the votes.
"Pelosi's hyperpartison comments screwed the pooch. the video is all over the net and the evening news. Obama and Pelosi will be blamed for all of this."
Pelosi won't be blamed (as much as the Republicans are trying). But Obama? What does he have to do with this?
"There seems to be a slight mismatch between the national polls and the state polls."
Only Ohio and the most recent poll of Colorado. Obama's movement can be clearly seen in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Pennsylvania.
rwc: it is quite possible the earth will start orbiting the mooon.
couchpotato,
i imagine jack was being ironic.
i really can't believe the reaction of the house republicans. did they think that the actual speech would never make it to the web to belie them publicly?
it's unreal the degree of their screw-up.
(not that i am complaining ;o) )
"It is quite possible that McCain will win the electoral vote, and lose the popular vote."
1.5% is quite possible?
RWC, it's also quite possible that Palin has an IQ higher than a doorknob.
But it ain't, so quit while you're ahead.
right wing-
No, the primary was not close, he had it wrapped up two months out. Bill Clinton would not admit it then or now. The crushing of Billy is a wonderful addition to Obama's win, if he wins.
His general election in IL have all been landslides.
It seems unless the undecideds break hard for McCain he has to defend Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and Nevada. If he loses any of them Obama's Prez. A rising tide may not rise all boats. At this point, today, my bet is Obama would win every state listed above. I think it's also likely he'd win the national vote by more than any of those states if the elction were held today. The question is if McCain closes this thing down to where it's a close race again on Nov 4th, can Obama win one of the above? I would think the answer is probably. I like the fact that Virginia is already voting. Maybe 50% chance Obama holds a decent size lead to the end, 45% chance it's close and he has to win 1 of the states listed above, from that 45% Obama's probably 60% to win at least one in a really tight race, and then probably 5% McCain surges past Obama. So that somewhat arbitrary math gives Obama a 77% chance to win. I likes.
"rwc: it is quite possible the earth will start orbiting the mooon."
It does.
justin: Obama didn't want to go to Washington and screw things up - that's what they call 'a lack of leadership'.
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
It is quite possible that McCain will win the electoral vote, and lose the popular vote.
Yeah, I'd say about 1.44% chance of that. SU
mdf:
Are you nuts? The Democrats are "Wall Street stooges"?!?
Which party has sought stronger public regulation of these Wall Street markets? And which party continues in their platform to advocate that Wall Street should get to do whatever they want to do? The Republican approach to the marketplace is now discredited: when the market gets to govern itself (or with "voluntary" regulation), then scoundrels can get away with scandals. Remember Charles Keating, who asked that investigators back off? Remember Enron? Remember last week?
Obama is up +5 and +9 respectively in the two tracking polls.
That's a difficult margin to sustain, and even then, he hasn't put those toss up states away yet.
Whenever Obama starts getting a big lead, he has slipped. Remember Berlin?
Remember the convention bump?
I suspect this bump will go down, too, by some massive gaffe or arrogance.
It is only a matter of time.
What tipped the scales was CBC/CHC members taking a principled stand after their favored provisions were stripped from the bill at the behest of Republicans who'd promised to vote with the bill and then weren't held to their promise with any degree of rigor by their leadership. I knew on Sunday that the bill wouldn't get the promised 100 GOP votes, and I figured it'll outright fail after hearing that the best support Boehner could personally marshal for it was to call it a "Shit Sandwich."
Who cres about CO. Obama does not need CO. He solified VA you freakin' idiot, that alone, ALONE, is game over for McCain.
Sheesh: go run numbers.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/ev/
The Democrat congress has lower approval ratings that Bush.
Bye-bye Obama. The win was so close he could have tasted it. But now Stretch Pelosi has screwed the pooch for the entire party.
fred said...
right wing-
No, the primary was not close, he had it wrapped up two months out. Bill Clinton would not admit it then or now. The crushing of Billy is a wonderful addition to Obama's win, if he wins.
His general election in IL have all been landslides.
You don't like "Slick Willie" Fred?
Obama had the Dem. nomination wrapped up in South Carolina in January. The rest was just semantics.
Obama lost his run for the House in 2000 pretty badly. He's tasted defeat.
Pelosi has truly hurt his chances greatly with her viscious, partisan speech.
I bet Biden will make too many gaffes in the VP debate. Palin will exceed expectations, stunning everybody.
"even then, he hasn't put those toss up states away yet."
He's put away all the toss up states he needs, plus Virginia.
I wouldn't call a three point margin in a traditionally Republican state "put away". It's down to the wire still, folks. Everyone knows it, even the libs on TV.
"even then, he hasn't put those toss up states away yet."
By definition, when he puts a state away, it isn't a tossup anymore. Like New Mexico and Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is still a toss up according to even the most leftist pundits.
"I wouldn't call a three point margin in a traditionally Republican state "put away". It's down to the wire still, folks. Everyone knows it, even the libs on TV."
Intrade is that way *points*
Put your money where your mouth is
fred said...
Who cres about CO. Obama does not need CO. He solified VA you freakin' idiot, that alone, ALONE, is game over for McCain.
Sheesh: go run numbers.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/ev
Why are you calling me an idiot bro? I'm on your side. Virginia is I think the state that does it for Obama. However, in Rasmussen OBama's lead went from 5 to 3. His national number is +5. All I'm saying is if this election is real close, I'm not sure if he holds Virginia. I like that voting has already started there and I especially like the recent polling in Pennsylvania, but I don't think I'm being paranoid to think Obama probably needs one of Colorado or virginia. He's up 1 nad 3 points respectively, but up more nationally.
"Pennsylvania is still a toss up according to even the most leftist pundits."
"Tossup" is code for "McCain can't win a single poll there."
Now you're just cherrypicking polls. Rasmussen has a republican bias. It's like me saying the DailyKOS daily tracker is the only one that actually matters.
The Fox/Rassmussen polls represent one end of the spectrum (guess which). As does the FL SurveyUSA looking at past polls. Look at how each of these compare to the polls these outfits had out last time 3-5 point shifts toward Obama. Wait till the CNN polls come out which tilt Obama; those will be some quite favorable results.
Jack-be-an-assmule-rider-ELECT!!!
inkstain do you think this bill failure plays worse for McCain than it does the house republicans???
Great move.on ad just ran here in PA. Links McCain to deregualtion and dereg to the metdown, and Bush/McCAin to the 700 billion bailout.
Nice.
Best moveon.org ad I have ever seen. Kinda amateur production, but hit the right chord.
All McCain has to do to win this thing is hit Obama on taxes.
Taxes, taxes, taxes, taxes. Make him into a tax-raising liberal. Tax hikes always lead to an even worse economic situation.
Taxer taxer taxer. That's what they need to paint Obama as!
Even when McCain was down, Obama could not break 50 on any poll. The poll that most accurately predicted the 2004 campaign now has McCain up by 2 with likely voters.
When Clinton was cruising to victory in 1996 he frequently had polls of 55 or 56%. Obama will never reach 50%+
"inkstain do you think this bill failure plays worse for McCain than it does the house republicans???"
I'm guessing yes. Every other bad financial news has hurt him.
I think the bill failure looks really bad for McCain. Really bad.
eric-
I was not responding to you, but RWC.
Exactly Jack. Obama can't close the deal by being consistently over 50%.
IT's funny to see all the libs think its over, though.
How is McCain 'closing the deal' with his 45%?
" The poll that most accurately predicted the 2004 campaign now has McCain up by 2 with likely voters."
Many polls were within half a point in 2004, and all of them have Obama winning but one. And you chose to point out the one.
Hmm, wonder why...
My sense is Obama would win virtually all swing states if the elction were held today. I'd prefer to play offense and if I can't pluck what I need from Red states, I'll feel okay. It would be much more devastating to win Colorado and Virginia, but lose PA by a few thousand votes or win Colorado or Virginia, but lose Wisconsin. This seems less likely to be in the cards. Game theory, you have to pluck one. I like our chances. I have to admit if Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina all flip that'd be beautiful.
It's funny how so many conservatives on here think it's normal for an election to flip from the leader at this point.
Just like it was funny to see liberals think Kerry still had a chance in 2004.
Gallup was one of the worst. Rasmussen was only fair.
The best pollsters were Terrance Battleground and Pew.
Sorry lib folks, you celebrated too soon.
RWC-
Taxer is old, and it is a lie. People know that.
Wait until a new bin Laden tape comes out the week before the election!
Obama has reached 50 in most polls. Do you guys even look at polls or just make this shit up?
Obama is doing WAY better in Wisconsin than either Kerry or Gore. It's not a swing state.
"I bet Biden will make too many gaffes in the VP debate. Palin will exceed expectations, stunning everybody."
Palin will exceed expectations if she doesn't put her shoes on the wrong feet and her glasses on the back of her head.
jack-be-nimble: The final margin was Bush +2.5. The following pollsters had it B+2 or B+3 in their final poll:
CBS/NYTimes, CNN/Gallup/USAToday, TIPP (B+2.6).
Your precious Battleground actually had it Bush +4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html
They were 1.5 points too far to Bush's side. Oops.
How come he isn't crusing at 55% like Clinton in 1992 or 96?
rwc-
So the CIA, which now control Bin Laden's internet access, will allow a tapeto hit one week out? You people will try to steal another one...
"Wait until a new bin Laden tape comes out the week before the election!"
So you're depending on deception to win the election for you?
Typical republican. I have a hard time thinking of them as anything better than scum.
"How come he isn't crusing at 55% like Clinton in 1992 or 96?
"
Clinton at 55% in 1992??
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
The longer you guys talk, the more amazing your lies and idiocy becomes. Amazing.
a Bin Laden tape would help Obama.
Pay attention
rwc: McCain is down and nearly out and you and your friends are in denial about it. You guys need to get on the case and campaign your butts off if you love McCain that much and not talk toss here.
I wonder if Pelosi and the other leading Dems saw the chance to crush the neo-conservative ideology once and for all. It would be the last of the 20th century ideologies to die (after nationalism, fascism and communism). Moderate republicans are isolated and powerless within their own party now. The party has shrunk down to the Barry Goldwater-stream. They have disowned their own president (and already abandoned his father before that because he raised taxes). My vision for the party is gloom.
Btw, the Rasmussen polls are not that bad for Obama although his win percentage might drop by a few percent because of the Colorado poll. As Rasmussen himself says, the first debate improved Obama´s leadership image and trustworthiness. That should give him an advantage among undecideds on election day.
Today´s Florida polls of Rasmussen and SUSA BOTH show a +5 Obama trend. Pennsylvania looks safe now (finally), and the only dangerous Kerry state is New Hampshire. So what is the chance of Obama NOT winning either Colorado, or Virginia, or Florida, or Ohio, or North Carolina, or Indiana, or Missouri (or Nevada with New Hampshire).
"a Bin Laden tape would help Obama."
I'd like to think Americans were that smart, I really would...
What if bin Laden endorsed Obama in the tape?
RWC - generally when someone is caught lying in here, as you just were, it's polite to apologize for the misinformation.
Jack-be-nimble said...
Even when McCain was down, Obama could not break 50 on any poll. The poll that most accurately predicted the 2004 campaign now has McCain up by 2 with likely voters.
When Clinton was cruising to victory in 1996 he frequently had polls of 55 or 56%. Obama will never reach 50%+
BATTLEGROUND was not the best pollster. They never had the election any worse for Bush than +3 When he won by 2.5, they had him up 4. The best polling was probably Rasmussen. He had it at 1.7 for Bush. He also seemed inli-line with the truth of where the electorate was most of the way. This time Rasmussen had a bit of a glitch where they were using kind of screwy Voter ID #s the week or two following the Rep. Convention, but it was probably fairly accurate at the tim, given the hype coming off of it. I'd guess they're a good pollster to look at. Battleground is likely losing credibility everyday.
LOL! RWC wants non-Americans invovled inthe election. Aren't you the same guys who railed against the Berlin speech?
Desperate Trolls, ha ha ha!
All your esteemed reps had to do was provide a dozen or so votes & this shit-sandwich bailout would have passed. Your nutjob reps would have cover, & McCain could "claim" to be a hero all over again. (The Bailout-Hero shit is a fatuous lie, of course, but you coulda bullied a news-cycle victory or two out of it.)
Instead, that "socialist", mean old Grandma hoodwinked you morons.
You know, Boehner is REALLY crying now; chain-smoking, throwing back the G & Ts, & plotting revenge against the Nutjobs.
Now, we can pass a real, honest, fair Bailout bill-
& McCain can retire to his Sedona porch, "Hey, you kids! Get away from my desert!"
Nate might need to order some straight jackets for the people who have lost their minds.
Why don't you find us the tracking polls from 1992 inkstain?
jack got real quite once his "battleground was the best pollster in 2004" lie got exposed.
Lies, lies, lies. The conservative trolls around here just can't stop with them.
I think the win% goes up today because the Supertracker should go up a little more. Obama is holding his Natl lead.
1 CO poll that actually has Obama in the lead is not going to hurt (much if at all)
---Pennsylvania is still a toss up according to even the most leftist pundits.---
The media narrative isn't driven by reality. Which do you think sells more Head On:
"The race for the whitehouse is a slow inevitable accumulation of votes for obama"
or:
"It's down to the wire!!!11!one!!eleven!!!!"
Chuck Todd: "Obama hasn't finished the job in the industrial blue collar swing states".
What do you guys think the recent polls is doing to McCain's/GOP's and Obama's fundraising?
Are people going to start bailing on supporting either or both if the Poll spread stays or widens?
The Pelosi thing vaguely reminds me of an incident that happened about 13 years ago.
In the middle of the whole government shutdown debate, Yitzhak Rabin died. Gingrich joined Clinton on the long flight to the funeral. Gingrich was given a seat towards the back of the plane. At no point during the flight did Clinton come back and talk to him.
Gingrich later implied that he thought that this was a personal slight and it was widely believed to have influenced his decision to force a standoff and shutdown the government.
In other words, a petty gripe led a Republican to make a decision that wasn't at all in the interest of the country.
The American public did not respond well to this. It helped reelect Clinton and Gingrich was never the same politically.
You think Republicans would have learned their lesson but I guess not.
Boehner said that Republicans were OK with the bill but cast their votes out of anger over a petty gripe.
Even if this were true (and its probably not), I can't believe what a huge political mistake he made by saying it out loud.
if there is a new bin laden tape , it will for sure endorse obama in some way, as he knows that this is an advantage for McCain, and thus for himself.
the Obama tape in 2004 was decisive for bush, and i am sure he was quite content with himself on how easily he can play the american public to his advantage
Right Wing Conspiricist said...
Wait until a new bin Laden tape comes out the week before the election!
Why do you think does Bin Laden release his tapes before elections all the time?
Somewhere in America a conservative is lying.
All they do is lie and live ina lie filled spin room. They come to facts and it actually shocks them that they have been lied to.
Hannity, Rush repubs are amazing.
You are looking at the numbers before the pollster attributed the undecided voters. Gallup fell flat. Battleground was best along with Pew. ABC/Times was suprisingly good.
Gallup was very bad as they attributed the undecided very wrongly.
"Why don't you find us the tracking polls from 1992 inkstain?
"
Why don't you show a poll that had Clinton at 55%. It never happened.
Bush led huge in early polling, Perot took the lead for awhile, then Clinton emerged with a slim three-way lead. He never even came close to 55%. Ever.
Liar.
Another nod to my main man Barney Frank!
Oh, and watch Rahm Emanuel in the background of that clip and tell me you don't want that man representing the country in a more prominent office. Under enormous duress...and still impeccably composed (yet intense); reassuringly patrician (yet concerned); but best of all, ever-so Jewish.
Jews are incredibly underrated.
"Why don't you show a poll that had Clinton at 55%. It never happened."
LOL after the convention?? When Perot wasn't in the race in September?
He sure as hell did!
Pelosi is EVIL!
If it happened, you can easily find a poll that showed it. One link.
Clinton won 49-40, didnt he?
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008082101
He was at 59% in Gallup when it was a two man race in the summer of 92.
"You are looking at the numbers before the pollster attributed the undecided voters. Gallup fell flat. Battleground was best along with Pew. ABC/Times was suprisingly good.
Gallup was very bad as they attributed the undecided very wrongly."
Okay, who do ABC and Pew have ahead this time? Wasn't ABC the one that had Obama +9 not that long ago?
And isn't Pew the one that believes the cell phone effect is causing Obama's real support to be understated by 2-3 percent?
Pelosi is just not that calculating!
Seriously, Nate, read her speech.
It is really not even all that Partisan or Political.
these idiots waving it around like it's some LOADED GUN she was brandishing is completely embarrassing. They should go to their rooms and write their Obits now
Can people explain me why classic red states like NC and VA are swing states in this elections?.
Please, don´t tell me the new voters.
If I was McCain I'd start worrying about my senate seat, LOL.
Fair enough. I'm not afraid to admit when I am wrong, unlike many around here.
If it happened, you can easily find a poll that showed it. One link.
I've looked for any data on past election polls (spec 1988). I find its really hard to find. This is very annoying. Seriously, if anybody knows a place where there is a large database, I'd like to see it.
Politically speaking, the Dems are just outmaneuvering the Reps every single step of the way. However, buck up Republicans! The 'savior' (and future) of the party will set everything right Thursday night.
*grin*
"Can people explain me why classic red states like NC and VA are swing states in this elections?."
Changing demographics, a different type of candidate who loses support in some traditional Democratic demographics and gains it in some others.
A note on McCain's clout...
All eight AZ representatives (4d 4r) voted against the bill.
Since we're going into historical polling, how many candidates were down 4 points (using the national averages) with this many days to go and came back to win?
Dewey. Any others?
What if bin Laden endorsed Obama in the tape?
Yup, that right there sums up McCain's chance of winning this election.
Gore almost did.
Summer? who cares. the last month matter my friend. Nate has shown races get closer, not farther apart.
RWC does not even know the sites model, LOL!
Almost doesn't count. And he wasn't down 4, iirc, only 2-3.
these idiots waving it around like it's some LOADED GUN she was brandishing is completely embarrassing. They should go to their rooms and write their Obits now
Well Barney Frank's comments basically neutered that meme. I haven't seen it mentioned since the initial press conference by any Republican.
I consider Barny Frank's hilarious comment about how Pelosi's "mean speech" caused them to vote down the bill the best political theater in a decade.
Republicans who said they voted down the bill due to Nancy Pelosi saying mean things about them will look even more stupid tomorrow when they vote FOR the bill.
You shouldn't put up an asinine childish reason for not doing something and if you're only going to completely flip-flop the next day!
There will be NO "principled stand" tomorrow, not after the DOW drops 610 points. They are all panicked now.
What Republicans forgot is that the American people might HATE this bill (and there's a lot to hate) but it can all be fixed later, and what people hate WORSE is seeing their 401k and other investments disappear while they act like petulant 6 year olds.
I think about 5 Republican representatives lost their seats as a result of this pathetic pout, followed tomorrow by a panicked retreat.
This is looking to be an historic rout like 1932 if this thing continues for another week. Republicans better PRAY that the markets stabilize or there won't be more than 100 Congressmen left and Democrats will easily get their 60 seats.
That might happen anyway.
in 1992 clinton was certainly above 50 before perot re-entered the race, , but in october was low 40s.
Repubs can't handle strong women, look at Palin!
Barney Frank for Secretary of treasury?
Rahm Emanuel might become the next senator of Illinois or Nancy Pelosi´s successor.
What if bin Laden endorsed Obama in the tape?
Yup, that right there sums up McCain's chance of winning this election.
I'm not sure about that.
Obama could simply look at a camera and say:
"Here is my tape for Osama. I will kill you. You will not be making another tape for the 2012 election. Bush and McCain might care that you are in Pakistan. I don't. You will die in my administration"
I think that at this point in the game, an Osama tape just emphasizes that he is still alive. If Obama responded appropriately and called attention to that fact, a bin Laden tape might actually work in his favor.
"Well Barney Frank's comments basically neutered that meme. I haven't seen it mentioned since the initial press conference by any Republican."
except by McCain
clarkejeffrey said:
"Bipartisanship is important, not assigning blame. I'm acting bipartisan and not assigning blame. Its all those damn Democrats fault for not acting bipartisan and wanting to assign blame"
Were those his actual words?
Nobody commented on my post comparing Boehner's statement with Gingrich's whining about Air Force One in the heart of the 1995 shutdown.
Seriously, can anybody think of a time when implying you were voting a certain way on a major issue because of a personal gripe actually worked for a politician?
clarkejeffery - what I meant is that both scenarios have a very slim chance of actually happening.
clarkejeffrey said:
"Bipartisanship is important, not assigning blame. I'm acting bipartisan and not assigning blame. Its all those damn Democrats fault for not acting bipartisan and wanting to assign blame"
Were those his actual words?
No. I paraphrased. That was the definite gist of it though.
This video being mailed around today might be a game changer, at least for congress:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs&eurl=
"rwc: it is quite possible the earth will start orbiting the mooon."
It does.
Not if you consider that the Earth-Moon barycenter is 1710 km below the Earth's surface, it doesn't
McCain's speech today was more petty hate - that plays like crap to young voters and women.
Schmidt - making Kerry's cam paign look good!
P.S. The Rasmussen Colorado poll has a 4.5% margin of error. So Obama's lead according to this poll could be anywhere from a significant lead to a narrow loss.
Right now, nothing good has happened for Republicans in several weeks, nor has anybody given a reason why there would be any movement toward McCain.
Conclusion? Slight polling error still shows a close race in Colorado.
Given the Rasmussen 2% house effect towards Republicans, that gives Obama at least a 3% lead. Still within the margin of error.
We'll see other polling soon with Obama outside the margin of error. He's going to win this state, but it will certainly be pretty close, unless the Republicans continue to shoot themselves in such splendid fashion as they did today.
@becky
"Bipartisanship is important, not assigning blame. I'm acting bipartisan and not assigning blame. Its all those damn Democrats fault for not acting bipartisan and wanting to assign blame"
Were those his actual words?
not quite, but the sense was that.
"Now is not the time to affix the blame. It's time to fix the problem. I would hope that all our leaders, all of them, can put aside short-term political goals and do what's in the best interests of the American people."
It was an utter farce of a call for political level-headedness. The very sentence before McCain uttered those words, he lambasted "Senator Obama and his allies in Congress" for infusing "unnecessary partisanship into the process."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/29/mccains-mixed-messages_n_130376.html
Wow I just realized "Biden" sounds a bit like "Bin Laden" too
Obama Bi'den - maybe this could be the basis of McCain's next stunningly clever campaign tactic
NATE,
YOU have GOTTA read the speech, BEFORE saying what you did!
It was mildly partisan! In the House, as speeches go, hardly an event that would even turn heads, or cause a Congressman to look up and take notice!
THIS IS UTTERLY BOGUS!!
The Repubs did this for political and idealogical reasons and took at aim at a personality and persona that they thought was most vulnerable to attack.
TOTALLY BOGUS BS!!!
JUST BECAUSE SHE IS FIRST WOMAN SPEAKER AND THE REPUB BOYS CAN'T STAND THAT!
Ummm, well, CO is irrelevant - Obama is solidifying KErry state plus IA, NM, VA - this makes everything else icing. I would love to see a few of FL, NC, CO, VA, OH flip, but they are quickly becoming insurance.
Keep the ground game up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Haley said, "Pelosi is just not that calculating!"
I know that. (Not sure about Nate, though.) Pelosi was guaranteed 80 GOP votes by Boehner & Cantor & they didnt deliver. The Cantor Crybaby Crowd can't kill their sons in front of the cameras. Thus, Pelosi-Derangement-Syndrome has officially taken over on every right-wing blog &- "Wait for it ... " Talk Radio tomorrow.
Pelosi wanted this crappy bill. Dems & Progressives all across this country win.
Us, Americans lose in the short-run, but, who knows, maybe something fair & good will come from this.
The GOP, as we know it now, died today.
Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out!
(& Pelosi had nothing to do w/ their demise funnily enough, but that is just between you & me, ... )
Since Iowa is 100% likely to go democratic this year, JUST Virginia is enough for the dems to win. LOL!
Bye John McBush's chances!
Reading the transcript, Sarah Palin actually didnt do so bad in the twin interview with McCain.
McCain did interject at one point though when it was definitely Palin's question to answer.
@icarus: Read the bill. It has several homeowner/mortgage relief provisions in it. (The Repubs did not vote against it because it lacked some relief from homeowners with underwater mortgages.)
.
(Bill is available at house.gov; probably lots of other sites.)
intrade going crazy for barack!
338 - 220 EVs
63% - 37%
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