Rasmussen has just released polling from five key swing states. When coupled with PPP's new poll of Michigan and SurveyUSA's new release from Virginia, we see a race that is relatively unchanged from the pre-convention period, but with incremental trends in different states that might portend changes in electoral strategy:
State/Pollster WAS NOW SWING
OH Rasmussen McCain +5 McCain +7 McCain +2
MI PPP Obama +3 Obama +1 McCain +2
PA Rasmussen Obama +3 Obama +2 McCain +1
VA Rasmussen McCain +1 McCain +2 McCain +1
VA SurveyUSA McCain +1 McCain +2 McCain +1
FL Rasmussen McCain +2 TIE Obama +2
CO Rasmussen McCain +1 Obama +3 Obama +4
====================================================
AVERAGE McCain +0.6 McCain +0.7 McCain +0.1A few thoughts, and caveats:
The best news for McCain at a micro level is that he appears as though he might have gained just a tiny bit of ground in the Midwestern Rust Belt states, something which may also have been reflected in the new ABC/WaPo national poll, which showed him performing well in the Midwest. I still think that Pennsylvania isn't going to close quite enough for him to qualify as a top-tier swing state, especially as there are a lot of Clinton voters out there who should be returning to the Obama ticket. But Ohio now looks like it probably isn't Obama's path of least resistance to 270 electoral votes, and I'd expect Michigan to continue to be very competitive.
The best micro-level news for Obama is in Florida, where there are a couple of favorable dynamics in play:
(i) the Joe Biden selection probably went over well there;
(ii) the consolidation of the Clinton vote is also valuable in Florida, and
(iii) something is likely to be lost in translation between Sarah Palin and swing groups like Jewish voters and Cubans; moreover, Floridians tend to be fairly socially liberal but more conservative on fiscal and foreign policy, not necessarily the best match for Palin's politics.
We need more evidence to confirm this, but at this point, it feels to me like Florida is a better target for Obama than Ohio.
It also looks to me like the Palin selection may have increased the income/economic gap. That is probably good news for McCain in Ohio and good news for Obama in states like Colorado. It theoretically might also be good news for Obama in Virginia, but I think his gains there might be offset by McCain consolidating evangelicals.
At a macro level, these numbers seem like basically good news for Obama, since the overall numbers in swing states haven't moved much at all - just shifted around some from region to region. McCain is polling about 3 points better right now than he was at the pre-convention equilibrium. It's possible that those 3 points are manifesting themselves mostly in states that were already very red. Maybe Obama will lose Idaho and Nebraska and Alabama by 30 points rather than 20, but that doesn't help McCain very much electorally (an exception might be in a state like Indiana).
In other words, I suspect that the probability of Obama winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote probably increased as a result of the post-convention dynamics. If you literally just looked at the polling out today, McCain would win the popular vote by 2-3 points, but Obama would probably be at least even money in the electoral college, by just barely holding onto Michigan and Pennsylvania and then either winning the Colorado/Iowa/New Mexico parlay, or perhaps Florida.
Note: These polls won't officially be reflected in our model until tomorrow, unless the White Sox game gets rained out.
244 comments
palympset @ 8:30 excellent, excellent analysis. If you have your own blog, or if you post on a blog with "diaries" it would be worth its own.
@Eric
I have pushed Nevada up due to Romney winning the Republican Primary there and Huckabee getting demolished. I just don't think there is a huge group of extreme right-wing evangelicals there to pick up who will vote on abortion for instance.
Of course, I could be proved very wrong, very quickly.
I think New Hampshire will tend bluer, personally. Similar reason to NH although less extreme - larger Romney vote than Huckabee.
""For decades, Sarah Palin went to church with people who spoke in tongues and believed in faith healing and the "end times.""
So do a lot of people in this country. Really, you're not going to win with that.
brad;
You make me laugh. Your candidate was so far behind that he throws a hail mary because he believes he cannot win. That is a great strategy.
Obama was playing prevent, but will now attack. He is still ahead, and your candidate is in his bounce.
I agree with you that McCain tossed a Hail Mary, but I think you fail to notice she caught it. And scored. And now McCain is in front and the clock is really close to running out.
What Hail Mary will Obama now throw? My guess, they didn't even practice the play because they didn't think it would ever be necessary. Didn't conceive they would be in a position of structural change, not just convention bounce.
If the bounce doesn't fade, what will you do then? Start to panic again or turn on another bad candidate?
Oz.
There are 750,000 Jews in Florida. There are 150,000 Jews in Ohio.
And 100,000 in Nevada, 150,000 in Arizona, and 100,000 in Colorado.
@tito
fair comment
@oz
but I think you fail to notice she caught it. And scored.
geraldine ferraro
OzJohnnie said:
Let me grant you that Obama manages to pull this off without looking weak or a whiner. What then? He has captured America's attention and then where does he go with it?
Right now the goal should be to stop the GOP momentum and change the narrative. I think a "moment of emotion" from Obama can do this. We'll worry about later when later arrives.
Hard to believe anyone from Australia is this wrapped up in an American election. It would be commendable, if odd, if he actually illustrated some semblance of balance and an ability to look at facts rationally. As it stands, it's just odd.
I continue to laugh at people who think McCain's gamble on Palin has been a "touchdown" while she continues to hide from the press like a frightened little girl. Talk to me after she grows up and holds a press conference -- without Joe Lieberman whispering in her ear -- and then after the debate.
In the meantime, keep on humping Caribou Barbie's leg, and enjoy watching your candidate blow tens of millions of dollars on defending Florida, a state that a Lieberman pick would have wrapped up.
tito;
I get tired of hearing it phrased as if Obama's gotta pull off some sort of magical feat of impossibility when it's actually McCain who is in that position.
You're accurate on this, tito. That should be what Obama supporters are saying. But their not? Why is that?
Because Obama has a defensive message. McCain has him realing. Every new McCain ad is a new theme for victory. Every new Obama ad is a response to the latest McCain ad. Every new Palin attack highlights a new weakness of Obama. Every new Obama attack ("Moose-shooter") is a personal attack that alienates swaths of the electorate. (Where is Biden in all of this anyway?)
So, you Obama supporters are all negative and defensive because he is. It's not your place to provide the strategy to victory, but his.
Isn't it frustrating that your leader is failing to provide leadership just when you need it? Experience under pressure. Lacking in Obama, me thinks.
Oz.
DaWolf, I think the west (i.e. CO, NV, maybe MT) will be more receptive to Obama vs OH & FL. The fact that Obama has a shot without OH or FL bodes well. CO will win it for him (he'll be there many more times before 11/4). NV is not out of reach.
Brian said....
Obama needs an outburst of emotion that shows the voters how much he really --wants-- to win. I think that is where he is losing this - McCain / Palin look like they --want-- it more because they have been more emotional, and it is connecting with people.
Obama needs a completely new tone.
Thanks Brian,
I think someone finally gets it. I was only proposing a shake-up because Obama is blowing this. I was blaming Axelrod and still will until something dramatic changes. Everyone seems to think that everything is fine and what we are seeing is a bounce from the convention. But, I have been seeing Obama losing ground consistently since July. Now we are supposed to wait on the debates where McCain seems to be more of a natural and Obama rambles. I don't like this game plan at all.
brian;
Right now the goal should be to stop the GOP momentum and change the narrative.
Change the narrative to what? What positive narrative has Obama run with out if his Convention? Nothing, that's what.
He's obsessing with knocking McCain and Palin down, rather than arguing for why voters should pick him. Worry about the positive message "later" will be too late.
Oz.
kozierok;
Hard to believe anyone from Australia is this wrapped up in an American election.
I may live in Australia, numbnuts, but I'm not an Aussie. I mean really, xenophobia? That's your best shot?
And wasn't it Obama that had the brilliant idea of running as a "fellow citizen of the world" with his European vacation? You should be happy when foreigners get involved. It's one of Obama's key demographics.
Oz.
@oz
He's obsessing with knocking McCain and Palin down, rather than arguing for why voters should pick him. Worry about the positive message "later" will be too late.
there is only one candidate who is focussed on constantly attacking the other one, and that's McCain.
Now call it what you will, bad strategy, good strategy, but Obama ISN'T obsessed with knocking McCain/Palin down, whilst McCain/Palin are obsessed with knocking Obama down. This was crystal clear in the conventions. To say otherwise is...well, you're lying (see, Obama might not like using that word, but I'm fine with it :) )
"Because Obama has a defensive message."
Wrong again.
What do you think the whole Palin pick was about? It was purely defensive. If he were a strong candidate he wouldn't have needed to "shore up his base", would he?
Oops, there's that pesky 'logic' stuff again.
"McCain has him realing."
'Reeling', and no, he doesn't. You propagandists are very amusing.
"Every new McCain ad is a new theme"
LOL. If McCain knew what the hell he was doing, he wouldn't need to change themes with every ad.
Like I said, he's fumbling in the dark. Obama just stays on course. That's what leaders do.
"(Where is Biden in all of this anyway?)"
He's winning votes on a daily basis while Cowering Chihuahua Palin hides from the press.
"Isn't it frustrating that your leader is failing to provide leadership just when you need it?"
If Obama were doing half as bad as you say, you wouldn't need to spend 12 hours a day in here trying to convince everyone that he's doing so badly.
Sorry to disappoint you, but everything is just fine in the Obama camp.
"To say otherwise is...well, you're lying (see, Obama might not like using that word, but I'm fine with it :) )"
Dawolf -- check out his newest ad. He finally put Pow McLiar and Caribou Barbie in their place.
yeah, I know. But he doesn't *like* doing it, clearly (or he would have done it already...heavens knows McCain has lied enough)
dawolf;
McSame? Not a knockdown?
Mooseshooter? Not a knockdown?
The overwhelming theme of posts from the left this last day has been ads that knock McCain/Palin down.
Now, McCain's themes from the convention, other than knocking down:
* Service to country ("stand up and fight")
* Drill, baby, drill
* Earmark veto and "Mr. Smith"
* Judgment to win the war - "Surge" booga booga!
Can you do the same concise for Obama and have be recognize it?
Rep knock downs:
* Campaign organizer experience
* Same old liberal (taxes, earmarks, whatever you want here, really)
* Out of touch with real, small-town America
Can you do the same for Obama knock downs and have me recognize it? Yes, you can because this is all I hear from him.
Your man does not have a strategy. Best to admit it and then work on developing one.
Oz.
Themes
* Service to country is not just fighting
* Renewable Energy, potentially 5 million Jobs
* Call for bipartisanship and moderation, that both sides can discuss
* Judgement not to enter the war in the first places!
* Tax cuts for 95%
* Tax loopholes closed on companies that offshore, tax benefits for small companies
* Health insurance for many more than currently
Dem knock downs
*Senator McCain v Candidate McCain
*More of the same
*90% voting with Bush
*Just doesn't get it
screw it, go and watch his speech, he explains enough of it (I would watch McCains but, well, I'm almost asleep anyway and 2 minutes of that and I'd be snoring)
dominoid73:
"Would that be the same day the RNC cleared a cool $17 million off Palin's Speech"
I'm calling BS - RNC reported 1 Million that day.
I stand corrected. I cannot find any source that led me to that statement. Your figure is the only one I see reported.
By the way, here is the NYT story on Obama's fundraising concerns that Drudge was teasing earlier:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/09/us/politics/09donate.html
Oz putting up the good fight but it's a losing battle. Believe me I know I was trying my best to put on a brave face for Kerry 4 years ago even though I knew he was toast.
The concern trolls are also out in force tonight as well... yes I'm talking to you, ruelemoine and others.
I remember my first election too.
Candidates for president get a bounce out of their conventions. Obama got a nice one and so did McCain. Convention bounces are just that, they go up and they go down. Today's state polls show that overall the race is unchanged.
Do any of you even bother to read Nate's analysis or are you just here to stir up shit?
If it is the latter as I suppose, I suggest CNN.com message boards in the future.
Today's state polls show that overall the race is unchanged.
realistxxx - if you're really interested in analysis and not simpleminded concern trolling, go look at the Rasmussen poll internals as I suggested earlier. There is bad news for Obama despite the stable topline numbers. As Obama supporters have often pointed out, these internals tell us about potential support and are a better predictor than the current horserace.
Obama campaign is loving the new Fla poll. McCain is shitting a brick seing that Fla poll. McCain is at max Repub support 90% and he's just tied while Obama is at just 79% Dem support. Obama has 400,000 new registered voters to tap plus 600,000 registered AA in 2004 that didn't vote. He has a minimum 1mil registerd Dems that aren't in the LV screen in Fla. If he gets just a mere 40% turnout that's 400,000 votes and McCain is at high water at 90% repub support.
FLA is going blue and McCain has zero chance to win with Fla.
Darren,
Talk about transference. The onlt bad news in the new polls is for McCain if you look at the internals. He lost ground in CO (5pts)and Fla(3pts). And moved VA and Pa by 1pt and he's post convention.
The ABC/WaPo poll is a sample of 961 RV and +/- 3%, so that means the white women subsample has to be no more than 400 and at that point your C.I.s go up to about 4.5%. I think the shift in support among white women is being exaggerated in the ABC story because of the smaller sample size mentioned above.
Can you imagine the talking heads shoutathon when Obama wins the EC but loses the popular? Repubs will call Obama illegitimate and be shameless in pretending 2000 didn't happen; Dems will be apoplectic that they're trying, or maybe just laugh.
Anyone give me odds that if that happens the Repubs will suddenly have EC reform/abolishment as their new pet issue?
Brian:
I think you're overanalyzing these national polls. While this year strongly favors Democrats, the Republicans nominated one of their most compelling candidates as the nominee. Even when Hillary Clinton was going head to head with McCain in hypotheticals, it was never a blowout. If someone like Evan Bayh was the nominee, he would have had an easier time winning, but it wouldn't be a 45-state landslide. If the Republicans had nominated Huckabee or Romney, they would have been toast a long time ago. If someone like Mike Pence had been the nominee, the conservatives would have flocked to him and the race wouldn't have been a cakewalk, even with a Evan Bayh or a Mark Warner. Also, McCain was already well-known to many voters and is an attractive candidate to many moderates, whether you disagree with him or not.
I don't think Obama should be "blamed" for the tight race when this country is still largely polarized. This polarization has been growing for years and its not like the 1960s where people were more willing to ticket split. People may flirt with the other side, but they usually end up falling in line.
For someone who came out of nowhere and beat the Clintons, Obama is holding his own in states that Democrats used to struggle in. Democrats should be glad that as a Midwestern candidate, Obama has real strength in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Indiana. Kerry struggled in Minnesota, winning by 3, and barely won Wisconsin, by about 1 percentage point. Kerry lost Indiana by 21 points. Obama has the chance to win Indiana, but even if he doesn't, it likely won't be a double-digit loss.
There are potentially millions of new voters that aren't being counted in the polls and who are not very vocal, but are excited for Election Day to come. These are the folks who can put Obama over the top in states like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and Montana.
In the case of Florida, Obama has a broad coalition from many different age and geographic groups, and the strength of the 18-34 vote likely will be imagined. If Obama and Biden work at it, they can chip away McCain's advantage among older voters. However, Kerry won older voters and the majority of the Jewish vote in Florida last time and he still lost the state by 5 points, so you have to make sure you aren't forgetting about other people. The new, inactive, single, and Hispanic vote will make a huge difference in the state, along with the large African-American base and educated suburbs in Southwestern Florida and in Orange County. Doing well in Orange County and remaining competitive in exurban Florida can hand Obama the key to Florida's 27 electoral votes.
The grass-roots strength is finally with the Democrats. They are organized and are micro-targeting voters. Democrats have a sophisticated online fundraising operations that has allowed Obama to compete in many states where he is shocking within range of winning.
McCain may be "overperforming", but it would be idiotic to pull out of a state like Florida, North Carolina, or Indiana. The groundwork has been laid.
If Obama wants to implement some new and more direct attack ads, he should target Ohio with that effort. If his internals tell him by October 1 that the numbers are slipping in Ohio, he can make his own decision then about investing in the state. Right now, he needs to consolidate the Democratic base a bit more in FL, PA, and OH. Obama just can't cede these voters--he has to pound away on the economy 24/7.
This weekend was a good start, but he needs more soundbites. I know it sounds gimmicky, but he needs to develop something the crowd will remember. I'm one of those long talkers like him, but that just won't work on the stump, and someone needs to tell him that.
vc: So do a lot of people in this country. Really, you're not going to win with that.
Rev Wright had a bit of traction and such energetic religious 'trash talk' is far more common.
Talking in tongues is like snake handling - weird for most people who haven't been exposed to it.
I personally know a Jewish, Florida democrat who won't vote for Obama. I no longer consider him a rational man.
In truth, however, the Jewish population is about 3% of the country, with more than a third of that total in NY alone. Why it's such a politically potent group to go after for electoral politics I've never understood. (Yes, I know there are concentrations of us in PA and OH as well as FL which are all among the swingiest of states.)
+ why do polls consistently show Obama winning 60% of the Jewish community? +
If Obama wins 60% of the Jewish community it will be the worst a Democratic candidate has done with that demographic since, when, Truman? Certainly since Lyndon Johnson signed the civil rights bill.
if it's 60 percent is correct. how much you want to bet its still 60 percent now?
Florida is going to be interesting. I think after 2000, its still a state that is likelynot to struggle to get Democratic voters out on Nov 4th, so even if Kerry didn't do a great job there, perhap[s Obama will. And remember Obama never really connected with Floridians in the primary season, a factor that state has in common with Michigan. I think those are two fascinating states to watch over this election. Some Republicans on here seem to regard Florida as a safe red state, and if McCain takes that attitude to that state, he may well lose it. If Obama gets serious about the state, he has a chance as well.
Michigan is interesting because soe of the trends in that state are almost entirely opposite to the rest of the country. An unpopular Democratic governor, a black recently resigned mayor in serious legal trouble, some of the trendlines favour McCain.
Overall I would say that right now McCain needs to find some states to flip, and Michigan would be on that list. But it might be all to no avail if Obama takes Florida.
Its true that Obama lost control of the "narrative" over the last week.
But that's all part of the convention thing ... its purpose is to have control of the narrative, at least for 4 days.
And, fair dues to McCain, he has re-energized and re-focussed his campaign. It might still prove a mistake, but no one can say this old navy guy went down without a fight.
Now its "Obama blowback" time... the Dems need to seize back the narrative, and the obvious way is to publicize how McCain and Palin are lying to the American people.
Oz-
You are ging to apologiaze for this insane narrative as soon as BO takes the lead, right?
Palin Gambit: FAIL
McCain should have picked Crist. Besides the obvious problems with Palin, McCain needed to nail down Florida or he is going to lose this election.
If McCain loses Florida, he loses the election. There is no route for McCain without Florida, even if he does manage to win Michigan and hold Virginia, Indiana and Ohio.
Other than Texas, Florida is McCain's only large state in his "base". The fact that Obama has tied him there at the high tide of McCain's convention bubble shows that McCain will have to invest heavily there to hold it. Crist would have sealed Florida and allowed McCain to move on to other states. Instead, Palin seems to repel Florida voters, and even if her current sheen doesn't dull, she is going to lose the election for him if she tips Florida to the Democrats.
Funny thing here. I've been saying for weeks that VA and FL are a waste of time for Obama-and McCain's gain in VA, and a "tie" in FL tends to support that.
I've also believed for weeks that the key states for Obama are: Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa and New Hampshire. By all accounts, Obama has at least 210 EV's come November. It seem unlikely that the West Coast, Illinois, NM or New England will go to McCain. Current trends also indicate that Iowa, Michigan and Pennsylvania will go to Obama, since the best McCain seems to do WITH a HUGE bounce (that WILL change the dynamic by the way) is to get "close". This would give him 255 EV's. At that point, he only needs 15 more to win. NM, CO and NH control 18 EV's-making 273-WITHOUT VA, FL or OH.
PA, NM, CO, MI, IA and NH are the key states here. NOT anything in the south (sorry-no matter how you analyze it, I still have to by cynical and believe most or all of the South goes to McCain-past history, the Bradley effect and Palin make that almost certain).
So-it now appears the democrats and Mr. Obama are getting dragged back into the same false campaign that killed Kerry and Gore-the "make the south" competitive game. Go for NH, peel off Iowa, PA and MI, and then focus on NM and CO.
So-this IS possible. Unfortunately, history teaches us that millions will now go into losing states because Obama is fighting in the south, fundraising momentum will continue shifting to McCain because Obama has no clearly focused, effective message out there in the "real" states he needs, and McCain ends up winning Colorado-which hands him the election.
Why, oh why, can't the democratic party learn not to waste time with red herrings like VA, Florida and Ohio. DROP THEM-they are LAST DECADES election news, and are not needed to win.
If you look at Nate's own State Similarity Scores, it is clear that FL is not even a better choice than OH. FL is really not very much like any state, but OH is pretty close to MI:
FL PA-26,DE-23,AZ-11
OH MI-66,MO-61,IN-55
What also might be instructive:
Let's take a look at other battle grounds VA, CO, NV, NH
VA DE-42,CO-40,MO-37
CO WA-52,MN-45,NV-42
NV CO-42,WA-34,CA-33
NH MN-52,VT-44,WA-40
I think that there are some basic flaws in the variables which which Nate chose to do the SSS.
Just from a matter of consistency, it is troubling that they are different from the Regression (of course, it would help to understand what variables he is including in the regression).
Time to look at the SSS issue again.
Especially, in light of recent EV distribution. What we are getting is something like 6 peaks or most probably outcomes (two favoring McCain and four favoring Obama). These are basically permutations involving the real swing states. We should substract out all the noise and focus on those 6 potential outcomes and the states involved and how they related to each other and to other states in a minimum tree network or closest neighbor analysis and other measures of centrality.
The current system does not reliably reflect the nationwide popular vote. The statewide winner-take-all rule makes it possible for a candidate to win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. This has occurred in one of every 14 presidential elections.
In the past six decades, there have been six presidential elections in which a shift of a relatively small number of votes in one or two states would have elected (and, of course, in 2000, did elect) a presidential candidate who lost the popular vote nationwide.
Nationwide popular election of the President is the only system that makes all states competitive, guarantees that the candidate with the most popular votes nationwide wins the Presidency, and makes every vote equal.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan
There is no reason why PA should be so tight. PA has been reliably blue forever. Where is Rendell and why isn't he on board with helping Obama?
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