Rasmussen has just released polling from five key swing states. When coupled with PPP's new poll of Michigan and SurveyUSA's new release from Virginia, we see a race that is relatively unchanged from the pre-convention period, but with incremental trends in different states that might portend changes in electoral strategy:
State/Pollster WAS NOW SWING
OH Rasmussen McCain +5 McCain +7 McCain +2
MI PPP Obama +3 Obama +1 McCain +2
PA Rasmussen Obama +3 Obama +2 McCain +1
VA Rasmussen McCain +1 McCain +2 McCain +1
VA SurveyUSA McCain +1 McCain +2 McCain +1
FL Rasmussen McCain +2 TIE Obama +2
CO Rasmussen McCain +1 Obama +3 Obama +4
====================================================
AVERAGE McCain +0.6 McCain +0.7 McCain +0.1A few thoughts, and caveats:
The best news for McCain at a micro level is that he appears as though he might have gained just a tiny bit of ground in the Midwestern Rust Belt states, something which may also have been reflected in the new ABC/WaPo national poll, which showed him performing well in the Midwest. I still think that Pennsylvania isn't going to close quite enough for him to qualify as a top-tier swing state, especially as there are a lot of Clinton voters out there who should be returning to the Obama ticket. But Ohio now looks like it probably isn't Obama's path of least resistance to 270 electoral votes, and I'd expect Michigan to continue to be very competitive.
The best micro-level news for Obama is in Florida, where there are a couple of favorable dynamics in play:
(i) the Joe Biden selection probably went over well there;
(ii) the consolidation of the Clinton vote is also valuable in Florida, and
(iii) something is likely to be lost in translation between Sarah Palin and swing groups like Jewish voters and Cubans; moreover, Floridians tend to be fairly socially liberal but more conservative on fiscal and foreign policy, not necessarily the best match for Palin's politics.
We need more evidence to confirm this, but at this point, it feels to me like Florida is a better target for Obama than Ohio.
It also looks to me like the Palin selection may have increased the income/economic gap. That is probably good news for McCain in Ohio and good news for Obama in states like Colorado. It theoretically might also be good news for Obama in Virginia, but I think his gains there might be offset by McCain consolidating evangelicals.
At a macro level, these numbers seem like basically good news for Obama, since the overall numbers in swing states haven't moved much at all - just shifted around some from region to region. McCain is polling about 3 points better right now than he was at the pre-convention equilibrium. It's possible that those 3 points are manifesting themselves mostly in states that were already very red. Maybe Obama will lose Idaho and Nebraska and Alabama by 30 points rather than 20, but that doesn't help McCain very much electorally (an exception might be in a state like Indiana).
In other words, I suspect that the probability of Obama winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote probably increased as a result of the post-convention dynamics. If you literally just looked at the polling out today, McCain would win the popular vote by 2-3 points, but Obama would probably be at least even money in the electoral college, by just barely holding onto Michigan and Pennsylvania and then either winning the Colorado/Iowa/New Mexico parlay, or perhaps Florida.
Note: These polls won't officially be reflected in our model until tomorrow, unless the White Sox game gets rained out.
247 comments
"We need more evidence to confirm this, but at this point, it feels to me like Florida is a better target for Obama than Ohio."
You mean because its more "Ethnic" in a non-WASPy kind of way?
Maybe O and Joe just need to go to some Octoberfests in OH?
Is OH less like MI and PA and DE and WI than FL is less like THE SOUTH?
How's that for some logical double negatives?
the dems traded OH for FL/CO.
that's a good trade imo.
"Floridians tend to be fairly socially liberal but more conservative on fiscal and foreign policy, not necessarily the best match for Palin's politics."
Funny you say this, I currently live in St. Louis but I am from Miami and definitely fall into that definition. I am socially liberal and fiscally conservative (I work for Edward Jones, possibly the most conservative financial institution out there), and find myself firmly in the Obama camp. I volunteer out here in Missouri and find myself in an increasingly difficult position in talking to the electorate. On the flip side, I talk to people who really believe that Florida could go to Obama, and that the younger generation of Cuban American's are not so sold on Republicans like their grandparents are.
Anyway, love the analysis and I am glad to see some new state polling finally coming out!
Nate,
Your assessment of OH is based rather heavily on Rasmussen polling, no? No other polling firm has shown a McCain lead since May, while Rasmussen has found McCain leads of 10, 5, and 7. Assuming that Rasmussen is correct, FL might look like a better target. If not, then OH is clearly within reach and arguably a better prospect than FL, where a number of other pollsters have found a modest McCain lead.
It seems like no matter what Obama says in OH it won't make any difference. Seems like they're more concerned about the "black man issue".
What is disapointing is VA. I expected something better for Obama, especially following the news of huge dems voters registration.
If McCain wins the popular vote by 2% or more, there is literally zero chance Obama wins the Electoral College. And the Colorado swing should come with an obvious asterisk because of the Democratic convention.
Nate, I love your work at BP but your biases are hurting your political analysis. Obama needs to win at least one state Bush won easily... that's not a very good position to be in, whatever early September state polls say.
All-
This is good news for Obama as we are still in the convention bounce in these polls. Lets not over-analyze them though, we need to let the Palin hate/euphoria and the conventions move into the background.
Calll me late this week of early next, until then lets not over-analyze.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: don't be surprised if election night comes down to a recount in Virginia. We've made Democratic gains in recent years, but I'm thinking the race here is going to be a nail-biter. Virginia's 2006 senate race certainly was.
I still do not see anything to cause great concern for Obama. Rendell is becoming vocal in PA. Hillary is in FL speaking to women. Joe is in MT.
No statistical info: I was receiving emails from life-long female friends from states like MT, CO, WA and NV which contained major "rah, rah, rah" RNC spin about Palin. I opted to ignore the spin and sent a few "of interest to women only", documented tips back to each of them.
Today I've been receiving emails of thanks. There are some things we Western women will not accept.
For those who may be interested, there is a map coloured in based on the Intrade data here. It matches Nate's electoral map very closely...
Ras-moose-n.
Ground game can likely make up a point or two on the numbers, right? And furthermore, there's probably a point or two of this wrapped up in the general McCain bounce.
Ohio is a disappointment, but everything else looks to be at the least to be in play for Obama.
And people, Nate has the right to say whatever he wants about his data. He's not influencing public policy in a big way, he's just a blogger with a really good knack for crunching these polls, and so far, he's pretty much been in the money.
@ John:
If John Kerry had gotten 120000 more votes in Ohio he would have won the election while lagging 2.5% in the national vote, so it´s not impossible.
Btw, I believe the Obama campaign can in fact pull that off. They squeezed the primary states for delegates already and they will do so with the electoral college, in case the race will really look bad, popular-vote wise.
Apart from that, yes, it´s still convention bounce time. We have to wait a little more, but...finally new state polls.
SurveyUSA's Washington Poll is surprising.
Obama +4
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7264ba9c-caa0-40cc-a462-b2806a8a809e
The number of dombasses just went up in Ohio.
Biden in Montana? Interesting. Maybe they are setting up Montana and North Dakota as a compensation in case they lose New Hampshire. But Palin´s pro-gun stance will make it harder.
Nate, I notice you didn't mention the SurveyUSA result for the state of Washington showing plus 4 Obama. Is this another 'little' move to McCain that we should ignore as a short term bounce? That's an average 10 pt change from before the conventions to now.
What is it going to take before you recognize a fundamental shift in the demographics of each candidate's supporters has occurred? You state that the increase in McCain support must be coming from "Red" states and then you ignore the state of Washington result? Do you think we're stupid?
P.S. Do you still think Obama will be up 'a couple three points' by the end of this week as you said last Friday?
Nate's analysis may be right. But, I think there's at least as good a chance that this is just random noise within the polling. With the exception of Colorado, everyone of these is only a 1 or 2 point movement; half to McCain and half to Obama--just what you'd expect the polls to show even if there had been no movement in "true" candidate support.
Idaho once....but she left me.
Ohio is oddly red - are they really so unsure of themselves as to be swayed that much by the Republican convention? But Florida is even weirder - where is their base Republican enthusasm?
Colorado basically shows that holding the convention there was a smart idea - even now with McCain surging, it could care less. And, as we all know, Kerry + NM + IA + CO = Obama victory, ceteris paribus or ceteris going as red as a ripe tomato.
I am curious about Virginia though. That's going to be a fun state to watch.
The key for Obama is that his paths to 270 are intact. Looking at these polls, he seems in fairly good shape.
"No other polling firm has shown a McCain lead since May, while Rasmussen has found McCain leads of 10, 5, and 7. "
WOW. Except for a Columbus Dispatch Poll showing M+1 you're right! I went to RCP because I couldn't believe the statement, but it's true.
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. Almost all comments are an attempt to look at the enounces of the race. And to all those that don’t like what is discussed here, and just like to ‘flame’ with dumb comments. Just go to another site; I hear FOX News has a ‘discussion page’.
Sedi -
Did you buy McCain at 38 on Intrade like I recommended 3 weeks ago? Easy money...you could have sold him this morning at 50 and switched back to Obama. McCain at 38 was silly. This race is 50/50 and Intrade will reflect that by varying degrees going forward.
"What is disapointing(sic) is VA. I expected something better for Obama, especially following the news of huge dems voters registration."
That's the question. These polling firms are using older voting registration/turnout models mainly because that is all they have. So the numbers presented don't include all the GOTV efforts.
I have two questions either for Nate for for anyone who can answer them:
First, what's the deal with Obama polling better in Colorado now than before the Palin announcement? I know the convention probably brought some cash into Denver, but Palin is a big draw for the Evangelical community which has a pretty strong presence in Colorado? Any insight on what may have caused the shift?
Second, I am originally from Florida (Ft. Lauderdale, precisely), and I think there's a dynamic down there with regards to Sarah Palin that people may be missing. Southern Florida (predominantly West Palm and Broward counties, and to some extent Dade, though the heavy Cuban American community there generally makes it a bit more Republican) has generally been pretty reliably Democratic, while the rest of the state tends to be moderately Republican, with pockets of extreme conservatism. I've always attributed the "liberalness" of South Florida to the large number of Northeastern transplants down there. Its tough to run into anyone in New York who doesn't have a parent or grandparent in South Florida. These transplants are also overwhelmingly Jewish (to the point where I was in my teens before I realized that Jews were actually a tiny minority in the United States.
Sarah Palin is the member of a church which has, on several occasions, welcomed with open arms representatives of Jews for Jesus. Regardless of your personal opinion of the group, their ideology and, more importantly, their methodology, are toxic to Jews. They basically try to trick Jews into converting to Christianity, and excuse middle eastern terrorism as punishment for refusal to accept Jesus.
This fact about her background is the thing that absolutely convinced me that the McCain campaign did not vet Sarah Palin. I think-though I am not a statistician or a political operative by any stretch of the imagination-that her links to that group severely jeopardize McCain's chances with that community. Do the polls break it down to that level? Is there any swing in the Jewish vote since Palin was added to the ticket?
Sorry for the long comment, but I've been pondering it for a while.
Puddy, get the vote out 'stead of flaming.
I have to ask...
Is this a double bounce for McCain?
That is: Convention Bounce plus, a NEW phenomenom, of a VP Bounce.
Is it expected that these will even out in the same way or is this a new variable?
Is it likely that both (if there are two) Bounces will fade, or is it likely that the Convention Bounce will fade but the Palin Bounce will not?
How much impact will the 'newly weds' (people who, until recently never heard of Palin, but are now enraptured with her) ignoring all the controversy surrounding the Palin pick have in the long term?
By that I mean that no matter what they hear about her, will they will continue to like her anyway?Hence a bounce that doesn't fade?
I think Obama's people are definitely going to reach the goal of 150,000 new registrations for VA. He has about 120,000 so far --- 49,000 in August alone. He registered about 140,000 during the primaries.
I said some days ago that Caribou Barbie could cost McCain Florida.
Maybe Obama will lose Idaho and Nebraska and Alabama by 30 points rather than 20
that line sounds familiar ;)
It makes you wonder what the state polls would look like if the Demver convention was last week, instead of 2 weeks ago. I reckon we'd be talking about a potential landslide for Obama.
"P.S. Do you still think Obama will be up 'a couple three points' by the end of this week as you said last Friday?"
I do.
The CO numbers suggest that this is the best avenue for Dems to 270. McCain has spent very little in FL and rarely travels down to the state. GOP is very strong in that state. I just do not see OH, FL, or VA going blue. Of particular interest will be NH. If it switches to Red then we are back at 269 each. NH and MI will be very interesting to watch for GOP. CO very interesting for Dems.
ante albam nox obscurissima est
Aussie-
There is a well documented VP bounce that has been widely discussed by Nate.
dominoid73,
Yeah, I didn't count that Columbus Dispatch Poll since it was so crappy (taken over a month, I think, and by mail...very suspect). It's surprising what a strong affect Rasmussen has on our perceptions simply because they poll a lot.
Overrated,
No, I didn't. I actually went so far as to get through the first half of registering for Intrade last night because I think that Obama is HUGELY undervalued at 55. I absolutely disagree that it is a 50/50 race, for a variety of reasons.
I was a little concerned about legal issues, however, as its legal status in the U.S. appears to be a bit hazy. That's the impression that I got after a brief search (it seems technically illegal, but unlikely to be prosecuted in practice). I just couldn't bring myself to do it, even if it meant a chance at an easy couple of hundred bucks. The price of excessive honesty, perhaps.
Obama has no chance at FL. I'll take any bet on that for any amount of money.
Most interesting thing in the ABC poll -- conveniently ignored by Nate since it doesn't fit his far left wing view ... a 20 pt swing among white women toward McCain who now leads in that category 53 to 41.
All of the information released so far is good for McCain. When you add in the "Bradley effect" Obama is even further behind.
And unlike McCain's VP pick, his -- Biden -- has done absolutely nothing for him. He's only up by 2 in PA and the Biden pick was supposed to lock that state for him.
If not, then OH is clearly within reach and arguably a better prospect than FL, where a number of other pollsters have found a modest McCain lead.
I agree. A CNN poll that came out just a couple days back had Obama +2 in Ohio.
WA result is interesting, I think Obama can forget about ND/MT now and I would be interested to see how OR is polling... not that I think it is likely to actually flip.
No NH polling, but if FL moved that much against Palin then I would expect NH to go out of play.
I am *extremely* surprised Palin did not help McCain in CO given the strong evangelical community there.
Gallup tracker still showing a big lead last night while Ras tracker almost dropped to roughly a tie today. Will be interesting to see how the polling runs tonight.
So, mccain gets a bigger lead in OH in exchange for regression in FL/CO? Thats a terrible deal for him.
Trading on Intrade has been frantic today, with Obama trading below 50 for the first time in months. The last sale was at 54 though.
It's hard to tell what's happening exactly. Though it could just be a panicked sell-off, Obama has consistently lost momentum since Sep-3.
Yes, we need to be careful of Rasmussen. He is a very right wing, and it sure affects his posts on his website. It wouldnot be hard to believe that it effects his polling. Nate has a found a repub favored house effect, I am curious if it is getting bigger.
I grew up in Washington state. Most of the Puget sound area is liberal, but the eastern part of the state and the rural areas have a strong "Alaskan Spirit" to them. I wouldn't be surprised that repubs in Washington also caught a little Palin fever, driving up the polling numbers there.
If someone were to poll California you'd probably see some McCain movement there too. Like the deep red states, larger states with significant rural areas will see some movement to McCain contributing to his national polling numbers-- but not enough to make a difference in electoral votes.
It's really becoming easier to see Obama winning the electoral college while perhaps losing the pop vote by a hair. Palin might appeal to some moderate women in swing states and shore up the base in a few pink states, but I think the state of the economy will keep places like MI and PA in the Obama column and perhaps be enough to put him over the top in at least one of CO, NV, OH and VA.
I wonder to what extent the balance of support in Colorado is effected by the issue of domestic oil extraction. In Colorado that translates into oil shale exploitation. It's one thing to sell "drill-baby-drill" to a national audience, it's a bit different when it's a hot button local issue.
Mark said...
Obama has no chance at FL. I'll take any bet on that for any amount of money.
Most interesting thing in the ABC poll -- conveniently ignored by Nate since it doesn't fit his far left wing view ... a 20 pt swing among white women toward McCain who now leads in that category 53 to 41.
All of the information released so far is good for McCain. When you add in the "Bradley effect" Obama is even further behind.
And unlike McCain's VP pick, his -- Biden -- has done absolutely nothing for him. He's only up by 2 in PA and the Biden pick was supposed to lock that state for him.
---------------
Wahhhhh! Lie, Whah!, Lie, Wahhhhhhhhhh!
Look, go find a McCain site with a super genius like Nate working the numbers if you don't like it.
Good luck with that.
As a Jew and a Democrat, I can tell you have a lot more problems with Obama's association with rabid anti-Semites than I do with the "Jews for Jesus" group and my fellow Floridians -- many Jewish -- find Obama completely toxic but that's not showing up in the polls because they don't want to even say they won't vote for a black who associates with anti-Semite haters.
Virginia Republicans trying to scare white Virginia Tech students from voting.
This "Bradley effect" claim is driving me nuts. We didn't see a Bradley effect in Ford Jr.'s senate race, in a largely white, border southern state of all places. We didn't see it in Deval Patrick's gov race. I have yet to find an example of an AA candidate performing noticeably worse than his poll numbers in the last decade. Please, correct me if you know of a race I've ignored.
re: Washington poll
Obama went from +7 to +4.
In the 2 polls, Rep +1, Dem -3, Ind +5 (and they don't add up to 100% either...), but anyway those are basically worth the 3 point change on their own. However, the main change is women towards McCain (10 point swing) and men towards Obama (4 point swing).
"Whaaa lie ... Whaaa lie ..."
If that's the extent of the Obama campaign's -- and their Amen corner -- argument then they have already lost this election.
I need help! I think I have a good grasp of all of the dynamics in all of the states, except one , Nevada. Why does it seem that everyone is sure Nevada is not a tipping point and Red for sure. Bush beat Kerry by 10,000 votes there in 2004. Since 2004, the registered voters have swung +60,000 to Democrats. McCain likes nuclear energy, Obama not so much, Nevadans not so much. Palin I don't think is a plus there. The polls are all split there. So why do virtually all pundits leave out Nevada when talking about decisive tossups? I don't get it.
Mark-
What are you talking about? You do know Obama lives in Hyde Park in Chicago that is filled with Jews, right?
No, but we have already seen the "Bradley" effect in the Dem primaries this year ... In almost every single primary -- starting in NH -- Obama "polled" much better both in the late polls and in the exit polls than in the actual vote total he got.
That very well could be the "Bradley effect."
Look for more dynamics in McCain's direction. He has all the momentum and BO is running backwards as fast as he can.
Today on when speaking to ABC, they report Democrat Barack Obama says he would delay rescinding President Bush’s tax cuts on wealthy Americans if he becomes the next president and the economy is in a recession, suggesting such an increase would further hurt the economy.
Now he's running from his platform. It's only going to get uglier.
Just remember this: it wasn't Palin. It wasn't lies. It wasn't the corporate media.
None of that cost you the election. It was BO's inexperience and McCain's ability to move faster and think quicker. BO is being out maneuvered in this election and nothing in his past (community organizing aside, of course) demonstrates an ability to win this fight.
He's in over his head. And he's going to lose.
Oz.
I agree with your analysis Nate (and made a similar argument on your previous thread about OH and FL). If we remember that these polls are still from the RNC bounce period, if things shake out normally the FL result is pretty darn interesting and Obama won't need OH (though I think he can still be competitive).
In any case, the situation is a long way from what you were suggesting a couple of months ago: that Obama should write off FL. Thanks to Biden vs. Palin, and assuming that Hillary camps out in FL, this is a winnable state for obama.
I'm from Cleveland(OH), and volunteered on the Obama campaign for 7weeks-full-time...Alas, I've become way too pregnant to keep up with those hours and continue with My reg.work sched. However, if it makes You guys feel any better, I, along with My wonderful volunteers managed to register 350new voters!!! And I just got 2 more today. There were 200 Organizing fellows in Ohio, You do the math. Irregardless, not one single person I registered was voting for McSame. The ground-game in Ohio is just incredible!!! Please, we are not all stupid here~the sheriff's dept. were reported removing the ballots in 2004, That is why I'm standing by My gut-feeling that President Kerry is living at the wrong address!
Hope is not gone. Let this serve as a reminder to each one of Yourselves what every little man/woman is capable of when we're not all popped-up on prescription drugs.(like most of the general public) Get out there and make a difference!!! There's still plenty of time.
~Special council for the Trees...and communty organizer too(haha)
Fred -- thanks for the racist comments. Hyde Park has a high concentration of very rich, very liberal Jews ... that's not necessarily FL. These people are so left wing in Hyde Park they make Nate look like a Libertarian.
Florida Jews are another breed -- to generalize.
If you don't think that Jews have a problem with Obama and his associations you really haven't been paying attention.
Somebody commented on PA. Ras. has always polled PA closer than the others. They had Obama +3 before, so +2 now indicates no movement.
It is interesting that Rasmussen is nearly the one one that gives Obama a chance in Florida, and the only one that gives him no chance in Ohio. Not sure what to make of it at all.
Given the condensed conventions and the VP picks there is very little value in getting into the weeds on these recent polls.
Top line view is at the height of the McCain convention bounce, there has been little to no swing state movement.
The M+7 in Ohio isn't that different from the last two Ras polls there. The O+4 in WA is perfectly in line with the national polling bounce for McCain. Same for VA, PA, MI and CO (In O's favor but they just had their convention there).
The only quirky one is FL (Tie). I will hold off on making any sweeping conclusions on what that means until we see more polls further out from the conventions.
Overall, the race is incredibly stable. This is good news for the Obama campaign given their structural advantages.
Mark: Nate IS a philosophical libertarian (has said so here more than once) but a practical liberal.
In any case these labels don't help much to understand how people are voting.
Mark,
Nate did a post on this, there was a reverse Bradley effect in the Dem primaries.
WA isn't going McCain's way unless Oregon, PA, Ohio, and maybe even Michigan go for him. Obama is only up +4, which means he's probably up 5 or 6 given the MOE. IMO, WA and Oregon are to McCain what Indiana is to Obama. YOu just hope they are close enough to fake the other guy into investing there. Now, Obama does go to Indiana, but it's usually on his way back home. In a simiar manner, I could see Palin stopping off in Oregon on the back to/back from Alaska once or twice.
Mark said...
"Whaaa lie ... Whaaa lie ..."
If that's the extent of the Obama campaign's -- and their Amen corner -- argument then they have already lost this election.
-------------
I see you conveniently avoided my suggestion to go find a top-notch pro-McCain polling site if you don't like this one.
How's that working out for you?
Mark said: "If you don't think that Jews have a problem with Obama and his associations you really haven't been paying attention."
As a Jew, I would beg to differ, as would my dozen or so Jewish family members in Ohio.
realistixxx;
Overall, the race is incredibly stable. This is good news for the Obama campaign given their structural advantages.
Oh, that's rich. Declare all data points irrelevant for one reason or another and then proclaim that means the race is stable.
Keep on believing that, fellas. Denial is the third stage after panic, which you just left. I'm looking forward to depression in about three weeks and then acceptance and resignation after the debates.
You picked the worse Dem to run against the Maverick. For so many reasons, but most of all because of experience. McCain doesn't need to say it anymore, Obama will do the heavy lifting on that all by himself.
Oz.
@ Alex S
Kerry wasn't *that* close to winning Ohio. Marginal votes become increasingly difficult to accumulate once a candidate counts the votes from his/her own party and strongly leaning independents. In other words, when a candidate is in a slightly inferior position in a particular state, it's one thing to get close, and a different thing entirely to win.
But in any event, state polls at this stage are unreliable. This site spends plenty of time looking at the idiosyncrasies of polls... even national ones have many limitations; the problems are magnified at the state level. The samples just aren't as good. Maybe something really crazy will happen with the Electoral College, but it's much, much more likely that the popular vote winner takes the electoral votes as well.
At first glance, these new polls look good for McCain. But when comparing them to the previous equivalent polls before the conventions, they're suddenly rather worrying for the GOP.
As Nate says, a swing to the GOP of only 0.1%.
It looks like McCain's bounce in the national polls is indeed a result of increased support in already safe red states.
Mark said...
Fred -- thanks for the racist comments. Hyde Park has a high concentration of very rich, very liberal Jews ... that's not necessarily FL. These people are so left wing in Hyde Park they make Nate look like a Libertarian.
Florida Jews are another breed -- to generalize.
You're really presumptious if you think Jews in Florida will be turned off by Obama, but not Palin. I'm sure you're right, some might not like Obama. This was already factored into the polls. Palin will nauseate many. This is just starting to be factored in. If you're a Democrat, you make no sense. If you want to argue that the Bradley effect and Jews against Obama will be the deciding factor in Florida that's fine, but if you somehow think Palin will not play negative with them, you'd be wrong.
Mark said...
No, but we have already seen the "Bradley" effect in the Dem primaries this year ... In almost every single primary -- starting in NH -- Obama "polled" much better both in the late polls and in the exit polls than in the actual vote total he got.
That very well could be the "Bradley effect."
----------------
Jesus Christ, you're a pathological liar.
Go check out Nate's analysis of polling and primary results this year. The Bradley effect was completely disproven.
Obama out-performed his polling numbers by a significant amount.
"If you don't think that Jews have a problem with Obama and his associations you really haven't been paying attention."
They did. Until McCain picked a VP with even worse associations.
Since you guys are so big on the "Obama should have picked Hillary" BS, remember that if the fake Maverick McCain actually had the stones to pick the guy he wanted, Florida would be in the bag. Obama is going after it big-time, and McCain will have to waste millions defending it.
"Peter` said...
I wonder to what extent the balance of support in Colorado is effected by the issue of domestic oil extraction. In Colorado that translates into oil shale exploitation. It's one thing to sell "drill-baby-drill" to a national audience, it's a bit different when it's a hot button local issue."
Drilling isn't a negative ... the Colorado numbers are seeing extra convention bounce.
I won't go into to a shale political analysis, but that's not the game, beside conventional oil and gas is 1000x more of an issue in a variety of ways than shale (since it is illegal to commercially produce shale oil).
Nate has also said that Chris Young, Clay Bucholz and Josh Phleps would break out but missed the boat on Pujols.
Consider your source.
"You picked the worse Dem to run against the Maverick."
McCain dropped out? Holy crap. When did that happen?
Mark If you're so positive about McCain winning Florida that you'll bet your life on it, how many points will you give before I lay $10,000 on the line? Will you put your bet in escrow?
Mark: As a Jew and a Democrat, I can tell you have a lot more problems with Obama's association with rabid anti-Semites than I do with the "Jews for Jesus" group and my fellow Floridians -- many Jewish -- find Obama completely toxic but that's not showing up in the polls because they don't want to even say they won't vote for a black who associates with anti-Semite haters.
This is only my second time posting comments here, but I'm pretty sure you're one of those people who reads polls and creates trends for the narrative you've got going on in your head...
I am also a Jew from Florida, and while I have met people down there who are voting for McCain, none of them have argued that its because he associates with anti-semites (I assume you're talking about Farrakhan). Further, most Jews also remember the historical relationship between the Jewish community and the African American community.
But that's neither here nor there. The real question is, if you're so certain that no Jews are going to vote for "a black," then why do polls consistently show Obama winning 60% of the Jewish community?
andy;
It looks like McCain's bounce in the national polls is indeed a result of increased support in already safe red states.
At least you hope. A absence of evidence is not evidence of an absence.
The McCain campaign has launched a new and apparently effective strategy of "stealing" Obama's message and 10 days later BO still doesn't know what do to. These are all the strategies announced in the last 10 days:
* ATTACK! ATTACK! ATTACK!
* IGNORE! IGNORE! IGNORE!
* WON'T BE BULLIED!
* MCSAME! MCSAME! MCSAME! (Again)
So what is it? BO is in complete reaction mode while McCain is in complete pro-action mode. I guarantee that if you want to determine who is going to win, then look at which campaign is setting the election agenda. And now you should be feeling a little despair, because it ain't Obama.
Oz.
Sony, if I understand correctly Nate's PECOTA model significantly, permanently affected Vegas lines for baseball - pretty much the only modeling system to do so.
That's pretty good.
Still waiting for a conservative explanation of CO. I've seen pictures of the giant rally there. Is it a polarized state where McCain had little to gain? Effect from the Dem convention?
Thanks for the backup on the Bradley effect, I had forgotten that post.
Mark-
WTF? I asked if you knew where Obama lived, and you call that racist? It is you who said Obama was racisr, not I.
What associations? Are you talking Wright?
Dude, taek a chill pill and back up your info with facts. I lived in Hyde Park for many years, you completely mischaracterize its Jewish community and pain twiht a very braod brush. I have also lived in south FL. You are whacked.
"I guarantee that if you want to determine who is going to win, then look at which campaign is setting the election agenda."
Actually, the better indication of who is going to win is who is running a disciplined campaign, who has a better local ground game, and who has better fundamentals. Obama wins easily on all three.
While McCain is running around like a chicken with his head cut off, abdicating his responsibility to vet his VP, lying his ass off one day after another, and turning the election into a circus, Obama just keeps pressing things home, steady as usual.
That's how leaders operate. Obama is a leader. McCain is a freak show.
The state polls today are a very nice confirmation what many have said about Caribou Barbie -- mainly a gimmick to make red states redder. And just wait until the honeymoon is over and she gets asked some tough questions she can't answer.
But don't let that bother you. I know that facts and you are like oil and water.
McCain/Palin´s Colorado rally was in Colorado Springs which is probably the evangelical capital of Colorado. But if they want to make actual gains in the state they need to stop preaching to the choir and go to unfamiliar settings, like Obama did in Indiana 2 days ago, or when he went on Bill O´Reilly. The base alone will not be enough this year.
As much as I wish it was, Washington's not gonna be close. Seattle controls the election. Whoever they vote for wins, and they vote for Obama, so Obama wins, simple as that. In 2000, incumbent Senator Gorton won EVERY COUNTY in the state except King County (Seattle obviously) Maria Cantwell is the Junior Senator from Washington in case any one was wondering.
Please ignore my sock puppet/stalker, who has made all other posts in my name on this thread.
I would also add to the list Charles made that looking at the candidate who is not stealing his opponent's theme is probably on pretty good turf...
McCain had to change his messaging from "experience" to "change" when he picked Palin.
One thing I noticed in most of the discussion I've seen is that voters still associate Obama/Biden with "change" by nearly a 20 point margin.
If that holds, the polls will equalize, and McCain will have to change his messaging yet again (especially now that they're acknowledging that Palin didn't really oppose the bridge to nowhere and she isn't really anti-pork)
McCain has had about 4,000 messages so far this campaign. We're 8 weeks out, if he can't settle on one, he's going to be sorry.
The polls have far too much noise in them at the moment. While politicians don't have the luxury of time, we do. I'm not going to bank on any accurate polling analysis until next week at the earliest.
Well, this polls aren´t bad for Obama. I think McCain will be up in Colorado but Obama leads now by 3 in this west state.
Ohio will be red and PA will be blue.
McCain is more comapetitive in MI but i think he wouldn´t win there.
My blogger ID: http://www.blogger.com/profile/17859279049129062561
The sock puppet's (AKA "assmole) ID:
http://www.blogger.com/profile/14962865135875462983
"(especially now that they're acknowledging that Palin didn't really oppose the bridge to nowhere and she isn't really anti-pork)"
Ooooo I missed that. Got a link, please? Thanks.
Nate-
Please ban VC's stalker.
Wait until next week, this is way premature. The only thing in these polls worht talking about is the fact that Palin might be making the red states redder, but that is not a winning strategy.
These polls are golden for Obama. McCain had insginificant gains in OH(Rasmussen has always in an outlier in OH anyway), insignificant in VA. Obama gained huge in CO and Fl. Fl numbers are the bright spot that McCain has 90% Repub support and is even(that's a highwater mark) Obama is at 79% Dem which will rise and has 400,000 new registered voters that aren;t in the LV poll. McCain is crapping a brick in FL right now.
Don't forget these are all Rasmussen polls with +2 repub lean and McCain is post convention and he's staied even in 3 states and lost significant ground in 2 others. So much for the fundamental change blowhards. I said wait for the polls and was proven right, nothing has changed towards Mccain actauly CO and FL are looking better for Obama!!!
OBAMA/BIDEN 08.
From the "Drudge Report."
"NYT TUESDAY: FAR FROM CERTAIN OBAMA WILL MEET AMBITIOUS FUNDRAISING TARGET... DEVELOPING...."
No links... nor any info at the NY Times site, but interesting.
I posted a few days ago that Obama dosent want to be in the position of "begging for money" come October.
Another Obama warning sign, IMO, his campaign events are becoming "by invitation only."
As for Obamas GOTV, Secs of State are going over the new voter regs, voter fraud checking.
And so far Obama is losing round two with "Bilbo."
VC, you have my sympathy and I hope the troll gets banned. We don't really agree on anything politically, but you're usually an intelligent, fair debater. (Unless you get really set off - but then, that happens to me too. Still not half as bad as what you'd see on a college football forum ;))
I know it would be pretty irritating if it happened to me.
What happen with assmole?
Noone is watching BillO, MNF - football baby!
These polls are great for Obama, and I think Rassmuseen is getting reder, with a greater house effect. It will take more polling to find out, but...
I haven't seen any major recent polls that include Barr and Nader. I suspect that there could be just enough conservatives nationally that will not vote for McCain despite Palin's presence on the ticket and go for Barr. (Nader, on the other hand, should have a negligible impact this time.) What this means on a state-by-state basis, I don't know, but you have to think Obama is in a better position nationally than some of these polls suggest.
OzJohnnie makes a good point! I think that Axelrod Barak's campaign manager needs to go. They are blowing this election. The McCain campaign has been out manuvering the Obama campaign since early July by winning the news cycle battles with Hurricaine Gustav, and the selection of Sarah Palin. Yesterday, Barak Obama on this week with George Stephanopoulos was still reminding everyone that he is a Muslim, I mean not a Muslim. I couldn't believe it when I saw the youtube video. I think change needs to happen, and change needs to happen now in the Barak Obama campaign.
Honestly, considering the six-or-so point post-convention bounce that John McCain has received nationally, these results are not bad. I think we can safely assume that each of these states is actually, without the bounce, polling at least a point or two more than how they are now. plus, this is only one set of polls. The Obama campaign should not be worried. Perhaps in a few weeks if his numbers do not pick up a little, he might have some cause to worry, but, honestly, these polls in and of themselves (particularly Colorado and Florida) are pretty good news for Obama.
"I haven't seen any major recent polls that include Barr and Nader."
All of the state polls just released by Rasmussen included Barr and Nader.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/fox_co_fl_oh_pa_va_97.php
Fred, perhaps that's your perception because Rasmussen has dropped the Dem weighting advantage from ~9.5% earlier in the year to ~5.5% now. I don't pretend to understand how partisan weightings are calculated well enough to judge whether that change is justified. He has been fairly accurate in the past.
John M. said...
"Still waiting for a conservative explanation of CO. I've seen pictures of the giant rally there. Is it a polarized state where McCain had little to gain? Effect from the Dem convention?"
Yes, the Convention is a huge unique variable in CO.
Someone posted a good analysis suggetsing that Palin would play best where Huckabee was strongest. Likewise, the McCain/Palin bounce should be slightest where Obama did well against Hillary. Obama destroyed Hillary in CO. Romney crushed McCain and Huckabee here.
McCain/Palin is a very Western GOP ticket and her anti-washington message building on McCains will play well here. Her best attribute is probably her battles against Interior over control of federal land. But McCain has made some errors in the West. In Colorado he suggested openning up the Colorado River Compact ... that's death here. Both McCain and Palin are strongly pro-nukes which will hurt in NV, since its to be the nation's dumping ground for waste at Yucca.
Palin will play very well in MT, WA and OR. The AK culture is shared in these states (outside of the liberal stronghold of Seattle Metro, Portland and Bozeman).
Another viariable is Palin using her legit cred supporting Native Issues in AK (along with the 1st Dude) to pick up NatAm support throughout the West outside of Cali.
Bottomline in CO, Obama has got a lot of game on here and McCain was never popular here with the base. The third rail is immigration. Palin may have some anti-immigration cred but that's got to go in the box with McCain. Romney was strong here due to perception that he was the most likely to curtail illegals ... but that's inside the GOP. In the general immigration is more complex.
Don't count on CO ... we need to defend here yes, but if it comes down to CO as the Tipper, I'll buy Obama in the political futures market to hedge my psyche watching him get sworn in.
I'd make CO and MI about even probabilities of going McCain.
Excellent site and excellent analysis, apart from a few flamers there are excellent well thought out comments here too.
From afar I would agree that MCcain has now shored up his base and his numbers now reflect that, the analysis that in some states Obama will lose by 30% instead of 20% is spot on.
The problem MCcain has now is we are two months out and he has launched the October surprise. Only a little early.
Palin is haivng an effect on the Media as it is stirring up the pot and making it briefly interesting again.
As long as Obama holds his nerve for the next week or so the Palin effect will dissipate.
As the electorate get to know her the people who thought they might vote for a woman outside of teh "RED" states will see her for what she is and return back to Obama, there is no way Hillary supporters will vote for her, they may feel aggrieved but they have to ask themselves with a potential 2 supreme court justice picks in the next 1/2 terms, what sort of damage and what sort of state would the Country be in after another 8 years on GOP. It is not impossible to imagine ROE V Wade being overturned.
Obama has to go on the attack, Biden has to Attach and Hillary WILL go on the attack, I honestly don't think she is that selfish to sell out Obama and let in the GOP.
I am sure a deal will be done ensuring her an excellent role in his cabinet or her own place in the Supreme Court (he would have the votes for it right ?)
So don't panic the Palin effect will wear off economic news is only going to get bleaker.
Right now Obama needs to announce some sort of major tax breaks or incentives for industry in OH and Mich. Perhaps incentives to build hybrids, he needs to get those states in the bag, the economy is going to matter more and more as the weeks go by and Plain/MCCain will not be able to compete.
I still have faith in the USA to do the right thing, I just can't see people going GOP again, personally I think he should also play up how much respect the USA would get if he was voted in, make America feel good about voting for him make them feel proud of such an historical moment.
At the last minute when pen hits paper or the lever is about to be pulled I think ordinary people would like to think that they are making history and that perhaps they really can have a better future.
Well, a few state polls seem to have put the dampers on some of our overly-enthusiastic Republican cheerleaders, eh Glenn? :)
"In almost every single primary -- starting in NH -- Obama "polled" much better both in the late polls and in the exit polls than in the actual vote total he got. That very well could be the "Bradley effect."
That is not true at all. In the states that Obama won, he generally outperformed pre-election polling. In PA and IN, states that he lost, he outperformed pre-election polling. In some other states that Clinton won, he did worse than his polling. There is no "Bradley Effect" as relates to pre-election day polling any more. I suspect that there is still a small "Bradley Effect" as relates to IN PERSON exit poll interviews conducted with folks just leaving the voting booth.
This is not about any bounce. The change is a dramatic shift in demographic support. From today's ABC/Washington Post Poll:
"White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions
to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single
biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain’s
advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he’s moved from a 19-point deficit to a
7-point edge."
Give it up Nate, the proof is being provided by the polling firms this website is all about. Why do you ignore the facts? Bias?
Here is McCain's problem in Colorado:
http://co.barackobama.com/page/s/coloradowater/
http://www.the-peoples-forum.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=3473
I think there was a radio ad somewhere, but I can't find it. Obama is using the same strategy in Nevada for Yucca Mountain.
The popular vote benefits McCain, the electoral vote benefits Obama.
The only god result for McCain was in Ohio, Virginia remains very close and new voters were register there.
I think McCain will spend more time and money in Florida, the last poll was bad for him.
Michael-
Why is this not a post convention bounce?
Rasmussen polling might not be getting redder, but the headlines on his website sure are.
Drudge is getting worse than Fox.
"Why is this not a post convention bounce?"
Because gains are only due to bounces when they're Obama's. Didn't you get the memo?
Wait until all those women learn a bit more about Governor Nutcakes.
Nate, I'm a Dem, so I'm not mad at ya, just curious, you mentioned you're going to watch the White sox play, are you a South Side Chcagoan?
I don't understand this. None of these polls mean anything. They won't mean anything for another week or two.
The campaign that wins will be the campaign that has taken a firm view on what it will need to win and then "relentlessly" executes a strategy consistent with that view, without getting distracted by every pundit or mediot. That's how Obama won the nomination. He had a better plan than HRC and he executed it. He didn't get all nervous at every movement in the polls.
Until someone proves otherwise to me, his strategy has to be to hold the Kerry states and pick up CO, IA and NM. Taking the eye off that ball would be fatal.
dominoid73 ... agree
Four Red states that could tip are each driven, in the end by the marginal few points that tip.
Colorado = Water
Nevada = Nuclear Power
Iowa = Corn Ethanol
New Mexico = Hispanic Vote
Nate is a huge baseball guy and and a U of Chicago grad who lives in Chicago. I am not sure if he stills lives in Hyde Park or not, but Comiskey is alot closer to Hyde Park that it is to Wrigley..
I owa is not a one issue state, and Obama's lead is basedon alot more than ethanol. I am in Des Moines on biz tonight...
Glenn-in-Colorado said...
dominoid73 ... agree
Four Red states that could tip are each driven, in the end by the marginal few points that tip.
Colorado = Water
What's the water issue in Colorado? Who has a better stance for Colorado on that issue?
Glenn-in-Colorado said...
dominoid73 ... agree
Four Red states that could tip are each driven, in the end by the marginal few points that tip.
Colorado = Water
What's the water issue in Colorado? Who has a better stance for Colorado on that issue?
Thanks for the all of the detail Glenn, it's really interesting. I saw the Palin rally, I've sat next to evangelical leaders flying into and out of Co. Springs a couple of times, so that plus Palin's "rural western" cred made me think CO would move the most to McCain out of all the swing states, when it actually moved the most to Obama. Like I said, quite surprising to someone who has never been outside the airport there. Perhaps Denver is becoming more dominant just like Seattle (discussed upthread) and NoVa.
I have to say that I don't think McCain has all that great of a shot at MI; I wanted to see it move more with the bounce. I just don't see a lot of structural advantages for him in the state relative to '04. NH for McCain is probably about as likely as MT for Obama now, as a long-time New Englander I feel pretty sure of that. IA and NM look pretty solidly blue. If McCain can't pick up MI, then he is stuck defending NV, CO, VA, OH, and FL. Failure to defend any of the five is an Obama win. (NV = tie = Democratic congress votes in Obama... can you imagine the media storm?)
(BTW, I sort of have the impression you think I'm a conservative, when I've actually been a pretty hardcore Obama supporter since Oct. '06. Guess I need to ramp up the unfocused partisan ranting!)
@Glenn
Someone posted a good analysis suggetsing that Palin would play best where Huckabee was strongest. Likewise, the McCain/Palin bounce should be slightest where Obama did well against Hillary. Obama destroyed Hillary in CO. Romney crushed McCain and Huckabee here.
that was me...at least, the first part was. Not based on whether the individual voters will switch, but that they probably represent larger groups/issues in the electorate. I think if Huckabee got a lot of votes that represents a place where evangelicals vote abortion etc, Romney places where the economy is important to their votes.
Romney won Colorado & Nevada by miles, with Huckabee a distant 3rd. The other places to look for positive movement are Florida, Montana & North Dakota based on this analysis.
Against this, Ohio & Virginia didn't give Romney many votes and gave Huckabee lots so would tend to go McCain/Palin.
I didn't include Obama/Clinton, or McCain, on the idea that they are already factored into the prior polls to Palin.
This is your typical republican scumbag:
The leader of a statewide group of college Republicans has been forced to resign after posting racially insensitive comments about Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama on the Internet.
Adam LaDuca, 21, the former executive director of the Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans, wrote on his Facebook page in late July that Obama has "a pair of lips so large he could float half of Cuba to the shores of Miami (and probably would.)"
LaDuca, who previously had called Martin Luther King Jr. a "pariah" and a "fraud," also wrote: "And man, if sayin' someone has large lips is a racial slur, then we're ALL in trouble."
I'm not sure what relevance it has to the election, but I'm not sure its accurate to say "Hyde Park Jews are ultra liberal". The University of Chicago is where Friedman's school of economics come from. Socially liberal, probably. Fiscally/Politically its a much more conservative bunch.
Obama calls out McCain and Palin for lying about their record in his new ad. You can check it out at my blog
Heartless and Brainless.
"What's the water issue in Colorado? Who has a better stance for Colorado on that issue?"
From here - http://www.the-peoples-forum.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=3473
In an interview yesterday with the Pueble Chieftan, McCain committed what could amount political suicide in the state by saying that the 1922 water compact negotiated between seven western states should be renegotiated to give Arizona, Nevada, and California (the Lower Basin states) more water. That's unlikely to make Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico (the Upper Basin states) any happier than it's made Colorado.
Not sure of the whole details, but you don't screw with Colorado's water! It's a BIG issue there. It's actually ILLEGAL to collect rain water in barrels in Colorado because of this compact.
Thoughts.
OH- I could've told you Obama would not win here. Clinton was extremely popular among the 'Reagan Democrats', while Obama is not. NE Ohio is blue collar and will still go blue, but not by big margins.
FL- Concerning for McCain, but folks he has advertised little if any down here. He needs to start spending some advertising money down there in Florida. Obama: Millions.. McCain: Virtually None!
PA- Biden really helped here... not. I think if he did, the bounce was eliminated with Palin who is strong among gunowners, and PA has PLENTY of them.
CO- This is a true toss up. The Dem Convention could have helped.
VA- No surprise...
My betting predictions:
OH-FL-VA go Red.
PA- go Blue
CO- Pure Toss Up
Hyde Park is very intellectual and socially liberal, but it all over the map in every other way. The only thing they have in common is super smarts...
Two points about Rass surveys:
1) No cell phones
2) Likely voters
Total impact could be several percent if Dem GOTV blows away likely voter model (especially in under 30 crows).
Here's the Nevada Yucca Mountain ad showing why the Nuclear Option is not playing well in Nevada for McCain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX-ed4_Km2Q
Eric said...
What's the water issue in Colorado? Who has a better stance for Colorado on that issue?
Eric, here's an editorial from the Denver Post explaining the issue. It centers around a water-sharing pact that McCain said needed to be revisited and supposedly this is a hot-button issue with Coloradans.
http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_10218277
I am not convinced yet that Obama has everything in the bag just yet. I have been watching the tide turning, and am not happy with the Obama campaign's responses. When will they get serious? When Florida, and Virginia polling go towards McCain. McCain hasn't spent hardly any money in Florida. He is elderly and will play well with the large retirement community in Florida that votes. Plus, I am sure the Jeremiah Wright adds will be coming out in October by Republican surrogates. I think a shae-up is needed.
Alex S.'s point seemed to get lost in the shuffle.
McCain/Palin are preaching to the choir, while Obama is reaching out to a wider audience.
Palin refuses to talk to reporters or mainstream media outlets, Obama is appearing on O'Reilly.
Don't underestimate that effect. Obama may be more effective at counteracting the smears and lies through this strategy.
Axelrod was too passive with Clinton and now he is too passive with McCain. He made the nomination close, and he is making the election close. They should have shredded Palin right out of the box via surrogates, but - NOPE!
Stuart Said:
Two points about Rass surveys:
1) No cell phones
2) Likely voters
Also found this from faithhopelove in the comments at Pollster.com
Evidence that Rasmussen is right-leaning:
1) While accurately calling the 2004 presidential election, Rasmussen predicted a Bush win in 2000--by 9 points! See:
http://members.cox.net/fweil/FinalPolls2000.html
2) Rasmussen is a conservative evangelical. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen
3) Rasmussen's web-site is plastered with McCain ads
4) Rasmussen often partners with FOX news (as in the case of the polls here)
5) Rasmussen chose to run a series of state polls in the middle of McCain's bounce, but ran no state polls during Obama's bounce
6) Rasmussen asks irrelevant questions that seem designed to impugn Obama (for example, his recent poll finding that C. Powell would beat McCain by a larger margin than Obama)
7) Rasmussen's "house effects" are more favorable to McCain than any other pollster.
Palin talks to ABC soon, here is hoping they ask the hard questions.
This is a Republican poll, but it looks like good news for McCain in Colorado (up by 2 over Obummer)
NRSC poll shows presidential, Senate races close in Colorado
By Jeremy Pelzer"
"A poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee provides further evidence of neck-and-neck races in Colorado for president and U.S. Senate.
The poll, released Monday by the Tarrance Group, shows Republican John McCain leading Democrat Barack Obama 47 percent to 45 percent in the presidential race in Colorado.
http://www.politickerco.com/jeremypelzer/2249/nrsc-poll-shows-presidential-senate-races-close-colorado.
and
8) Rasmussen's headlines and polling spin have gotten much more anti-Obama after the McCain pick of Palin, possibly indicating his buy in of this horrendous pick due to his similar religious beliefs.
Fred, I think it highly unlikely that Gibson will ask any tough questions. It will be questions like "How does your religion influence your politics?" or "How did a hockey mom become Governor?"
I hope I'm wrong.
mikewpbfl said...
From the "Drudge Report."
"NYT TUESDAY: FAR FROM CERTAIN OBAMA WILL MEET AMBITIOUS FUNDRAISING TARGET... DEVELOPING...."
No links... nor any info at the NY Times site, but interesting.
I posted a few days ago that Obama dosent want to be in the position of "begging for money" come October.
************
Are you retarded? That's a serious question. Actually, you vote Republican, so maybe the answer is obvious.
You cite an unsourced rumor from Drudge, after you KNOW that Obama cleared a cool $10 mil in the 24 hours following the Repugnicon convention.
"A poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee provides further evidence of neck-and-neck races in Colorado for president and U.S. Senate."
From the "report":
"John McCain currently holds a slight lead over Obama on a trial balloon test for president"
What the hell is that?
Mike, this poll is a joke. The true poll in CO was the Fox News/Rasmussen poll.
RCP no includes the other poll.
Fred,
I agree with asking tough questions to Palin. It can help deflate some momentum. But, suppose she over achieves. Then, what? Will the Axelrod have a better counter response then that this is more of the same failed policies by George Bush. The McCain campaign is getting away with the reformer message better than Obama is doing of painting McCain as George Bush III.
ruelemoine said...
I am not convinced yet that Obama has everything in the bag just yet. I have been watching the tide turning, and am not happy with the Obama campaign's responses. When will they get serious? When Florida, and Virginia polling go towards McCain. McCain hasn't spent hardly any money in Florida. He is elderly and will play well with the large retirement community in Florida that votes. Plus, I am sure the Jeremiah Wright adds will be coming out in October by Republican surrogates. I think a shae-up is needed.
--------------
You seem like a concern troll, but I'll play.
Nobody thinks this is in the bag for Obama. The good news from today is that the McCain bounce isn't impacting the EV map so far. I and many others are convinced the bounce will fade like all other bounces, so in a week or two we'll be back to the good landscape for Obama pre-convention.
You think a shake up is needed? You've got the wrong candidate. It is McCain that shakes things up every month or so. Maybe you should go with him.
One thing to note: Which candidate is doing better, the one that has had change as his theme since the beginning or the one that co-opted that message a few days ago?
Drudge seems to have very good ties into the NYT. His hints from there are about the only reliable leads he gets currently.
Fred, if you haven't seen it -- watch this new Obama ad about McCain and Palin:
http://thepoliticalcarnival.blogspot.com/2008/09/video-original-mavericks-nope-says-new.html
I wonder if there's any statistical evidence about the effect the governor's political party has on the outcome of presidential race. It might seem that have a governor of one's own party might give a certain advantage to a presidential candidate from a endorsement and structural standpoint.
With that in mind, looking at the governorships of the battleground states:
MI - Dem
OH - Dem
PA - Dem
VA - Dem
CO - Dem
FL - Rep
I'd like to see more polling from Colorado. I'm not buying this Rasmmusen poll- Colorado isn't 5-6 points more blue than the national average (where McCain presently leads by 2 points, even if you throw out the +10 USA/Gallup outlier).
I notice the Rasmussen poll was conducted on a single day, a Sunday. Maybe evangelicals weren't answering because they were at church? You'd think the same effect would have shown up in Ohio tho.
McCain is sleeping in Florida, the last two polls (Maxon-Dixon and Rasmussen) were favorable to Obama.
"The McCain campaign is getting away with the reformer message better than Obama is doing of painting McCain as George Bush III."
At least they were -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBtbG5xjFBY
Jews won't vote for an AA? They voted for David Dinkins by a 2 to 1 margin over Rudy Guiliani to give Dinkins his one victory over Rudy in the NYC mayoral election in 1989.
Now, alot of those Jews that put Dinkins in office in NYC 19 years ago have since retired to S. Florida. They will NOT have a problem poking a chad for Obama at the Broward County Community Center.
BO should stick Hillary in Florida from Tampa/St. Pete and then south and not let her leave until she has a George Hamilton tan.
And no Virginia Conservative on this blog tonight telling us Obama supporters how the old fart is going to spank our guy.
@eve
maybe it's because I already knew the ad, but anyway...it seems to aim hard but fail with it's punch to me.
at the same time, at least they use the image of Palin with the bridge to nowhere shirt. Although I wish they had called her a liar as well, rather than the lesser charge of flip flopper.
fred said...
Drudge seems to have very good ties into the NYT. His hints from there are about the only reliable leads he gets currently.
My guess would be that he has connections to someone in the production process. Probably someone who flows the type and content of the articles in the layout. Most of his blurbs seem to be direct lifts from the articles that eventually show up (when he's actually correct, that is).
Demographics in Colorado change since 2004, this benefits Obama.
CO is the key state. Assuming he holds the Kerry states (probably will with squeakers in PA/MI/WI - reason why he'll use this month to lock them down)a CO win will give him the presidency with IA + NM. It's all about Colorado.
eve-
That is a good ad - it would have been alot better a week ago though.
Obama campaign must be reading Nate as no sooner did Mc Cain's new ad come out this morning and they had a hard hitting one against it by this evening. This is what they must do over and over and over again. I am in Colorado and see it as 'two states' at times... the Southern part being that Evangelical group and then us up in the Boulder area which is very liberal and Denver in between.
I have a question I would dearly love for someone to answer. Why is it that in my entire life (long) no one has ever polled me or a single person I know. Seems there are so many groups out there polling what are the odds that I would never know anyone that has been polled. Seems odd
I agree with the poster who said Obama will lose Florida. Obama has done and will continue to do poorly among older white people. Full stop. For whatever reason that Rasmussen poll has to be off.
Colorado. It is a young state. The big beautiful (nearly) flawless convention was there. The O campaign has been organizing since 2007. This poll could be right. The Gore states plus Colorado equals 269. So... yes, this election is still very close. If the election were today, McCain would win, but I think the only states Obama needs to flip between now and Nov 4 are MI for a tie and NH for the win.
"I have a question I would dearly love for someone to answer. Why is it that in my entire life (long) no one has ever polled me or a single person I know. Seems there are so many groups out there polling what are the odds that I would never know anyone that has been polled. Seems odd"
You're probably talking an average of what, 1000 voters a day (it's higher now of course)? 365,000 a year, 70 years to reach ~25 mil.
So over your lifetime that's still less than a 1/10 chance of being polled.
The Gore states plus Colorado was 275.
"If the election were today, McCain would win"
Yes and No. Yes to the popular and STILL no in the electoral college.
Florida? Maybe
Colorado? Could be
Virginia? Somehow I doubt it
Better win Ohio in my opinion
What happened to the sages who say "ignore the top line number - its the internal numbers that matter"? Perhaps they are silent because the internals are not good for Senator Obama. Here's Rasmussen's summary of the 5 state internals:
A number of themes emerge from the data that are consistent across all five states:
· McCain is trusted more than Obama in all five states.
· In all five states, McCain is viewed more favorably than Obama.
· Also, in all five states, Sarah Palin draws higher “Very Favorable” ratings than any other candidate.
· In all states except Colorado, McCain enjoys a bigger margin among Republicans than Obama does among Democrats. In Colorado, they are even.
· Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.
· The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is higher in every state than the number saying the same about McCain. This is consistent with national polling data showing that McCain voters are more likely than Obama supporters to be primarily voting against the other candidate.
· Obama has the edge among unaffiliated voters in three states, McCain in two. Nationally, unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided.
McCain is more trusted, has more of his base and splits the independents, both he and Palin have higher favorables, and more people are comfortable with McCain. The economy being the biggest issue is a possible Obama advantage, but his lead on that issue has shrunk significantly in national polls.
No wonder none of the Obama partisans are examining these polls too closely.
And remember that the western states (Colorado, Nevada) were the most pro-choice states.
anyway, forget Gore.
Kerry+Iowa+New Mexico plus any of half a dozen win possibilities is where it's at. Those win possibilities are (in my own descending order, right now)
Colorado
Nevada
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Montana+North Dakota
Palin flubbed her first question about the housing crisis.
Why again is this the person who should run our country?
rwcole, Obama have more chances in CO and VA and maybe FL than Ohio.
tag Indiana on the end as well.
Kim Mendelsohn said...
what's the deal with Obama polling better in Colorado now than before the Palin announcement? I know the convention probably brought some cash into Denver, but Palin is a big draw for the Evangelical community which has a pretty strong presence in Colorado? Any insight on what may have caused the shift?
Short answer: all the Fundies were already voting for McCain anyway. Now they are more "enthusiastic" about it, but while that may help McCain's GOTV effort here, they can only vote once.
Fundies were among the strongest Republican Bush-bots who always line up and march when they're told. Thus, while they love Palin, this doesn't translate to many votes here (or elsewhere). Here's a Washington Post article that provides insight:
NORFOLK -- Bill and Sandra Goode were so worried that John McCain might pick a running mate who favored abortion rights that Bill called McCain's presidential campaign headquarters to warn against it. They prayed. And when the Republican senator picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, whom they had barely heard of but knew to be staunchly anti-abortion, Sandra Goode said, "we knew our prayers had been answered."
The Goodes would have voted for McCain no matter what, but Palin lifted them to a new level of motivation. They called the volunteer McCain representative in their town of Surry, Va., offering any help they could.
See the key text? The Fundies were already McCain supporters. If McCain had picked Lieberman they might have sat out the election. Now they're enthusiastic.
That helps McCain's fundraising and volunteer GOTV efforts, but doesn't ad many Fundie votes because he already had them anyway. It would be like Obama picking a VP that black voters loved. They might be even more "enthusiastic" but he's got 93% of them already, so how much impact could it have?
Dario
Maybe
But I wouldn't put much faith in that faithful gooper Scottie Rasmussen...he's a partisan to the bone.
"McCain voters are more likely than Obama supporters to be primarily voting against the other candidate."
Did you read your own post?
Welcome to John Kerry, 2004.
You cite an unsourced rumor from Drudge, after you KNOW that Obama cleared a cool $10 mil in the 24 hours following the Repugnicon convention.
Would that be the same day the RNC cleared a cool $17 million off Palin's speech? Obama's number got a lot more press though. We'll have to wait til October 20th to know September's figures for sure.
...andRasmussen is a repub pollster who is loading his questions more than ever. I am getting more worried about our reliance on Rasmussen polls. WE need to study his house effect closely.
Please, Rasmussen is one of the best pollsters. It isn´t a Republican pollster.
Now, alot of those Jews that put Dinkins in office in NYC 19 years ago have since retired to S. Florida.
Well, yes and no.
Some of them retired to Phoenix ;)
Rasmussen IS a Republican leaning pollster.
But personally I'd rather see figures that lean slightly McCain than towards Obama. I don't want to feel overconfident.
"Would that be the same day the RNC cleared a cool $17 million off Palin's Speech"
I'm calling BS - RNC reported 1 Million that day.
My sources:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26551384/
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/04/after-palin-speech-obama-has-record-10-million-day/
Yours is . . . .
Nate, regarding your opening paragraph on the midwest/rust belt states, the reason that PA is different is because it is NOT strictly speaking a purely rust belt state -- western PA, sure, that qualifies. So does the "T." But the Philadelphia area, such a large percentage of the population, is right in the heart of the Acela corridor. And the fact that the Philly suburbs have been turning from Red to Purple even to Purplish-Blue is why PA has been in the Democratic column the last several elections.
(The Rust Belt designation has irked this Philly area native since I started hanging here. ;-))
-- Stu
The Electoral Map have no bounce for McCain, he is leaning the popular vote now but the electoral college continues for Obama.
If you see the Rasmussen swing states polls only Ohio was good for him.
He was good in MI in the last poll but this states have a los of progressives elements who turned the state in Obama´s column.
Eric @6:32,
Palin is a huge asset in Nevada. Like Alaska, Nevada is a mining state, largely rural and lots of religious fundamentalism.
Palin might be an embarrassment in Las Vegas but everywhere else people are going to love her.
She conducts politics like a small town home coming queen. Most people in Nevada can relate to that.
I am an Obama supporter, by the way, but having lived in Elko County, Palin is worth gold in those parts.
LOL, i want to put state have a lot.
But personally I'd rather see figures that lean slightly McCain than towards Obama. I don't want to feel overconfident.
It's better for GOTV.
LivingQatar;
The problem MCcain has now is we are two months out and he has launched the October surprise. Only a little early.
I'm sure you hope that's true, but given how McCain has been running circles around Obama for the last two months, and in particular the last 10 days, I think your campaign confidence is on pure and flimsy "hopenchange". Not good.
Let's see, if McCain is now trying to steal Obama message, and say that lasts for another 5 days, what's the next move? McCain will hammer BO on the "same old liberal" meme, and it will be effective. Why? Because BO just handed McCain the earmark argument - $1million a day versus $0 over 26 years. Is BO stupid? You must be starting to wonder.
So we got from McCain:
* Drill, baby, Drill
* Mr/Ms Smith go to Washington
* Same old liberal
* Tax and spend
* Earmark reform
And what's BO got?
* McSame (snooze)
* "Moose-shooter" - I mean really. Is he stupid? Why does he keep talking about Palin (wasn't he ignoring her yesterday) and why does he keep belittling small town folks and their sympathizers. BO is polarizing the electorate and it's going to cost him the election.
Here is the fact concerning polls: The are lagging trends, not predicting trends. The SuperTracker tries to predict, but it predicts only a return to zero. It assumes that what we see to day is what we will see tomorrow, only less so. McCain is thinking about how to change tomorrow when Obama is thinking about how to respond to yesterday. Your man cannot win unless he can get ahead of McCain.
I don't think Obama has what it takes.
Oz.
Wouldn't it be funny if Palin turned the red states redder, and blue and purple states bluer thus flipping the 2000 result and having McCain win the popular by 1 or even 2% but losing the EV?
@oz
McCain has been running circles around Obama for the last two months, and in particular the last 10 days
so that would be why he's been lagging in the polls up until about 3 days ago then?
Realistxxx said....
One thing to note: Which candidate is doing better, the one that has had change as his theme since the beginning or the one that co-opted that message a few days ago?
The answer is the one who stole the message and has made it his own. McCain said to the American people help me bring change to Washington. And, Axelrod replied this just more of the same failed policies... What do you think the people remembered? I just think that Barak Obama is not winning the news cycle wars and is lately been defensive, talking about the publics misperception on his faith, and now he reminded averyone about his answer on the abortion question from the Saddleback forum. Please don't re-introduce abortion in this campaign. So, I am concerned with the way his campaign has been mishandling his message.
Brad, that would make me laugh.
brad;
Wouldn't it be funny if Palin turned the red states redder, and blue and purple states bluer thus flipping the 2000 result and having McCain win the popular by 1 or even 2% but losing the EV?
So would that mean you and your fellow travelers would finally stop bitching about 2000 and must "move on"?
Oz.
The Jewish voter question is actually more nuanced than most posters here make it out to be. 25% of Jews voted for Bush in 2004, and trends have been for more Jews to support Republicans over the recent years - (http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=2872816&page=1) mostly because of what they perceive as the more favorable Republican stance toward Israel.
Being Jewish and also on an extended family email rant concerning Obama etc., I can tell you that those Jewish conservatives have been very strongly anti-Obama, while Jewish Democrats have supported him quietly and with muted enthusiasm. Jewish swing voters have seen the debate and been uneasy with Obama but not sure, either, about McCain. My guess is, until the Palin pick, along with McCain's strong pro-Israel stance, probably more Jews than in the past, greater than 25%, have been tending toward the Republican ticket (specifically, this affects the key swing states of Ohio and Florida).
However, I can tell you that Sarah Palin will definitely turn off those "swing" Jewish voters. She won't affect the core Jewish conservative vote, but my guess is with Palin on the ticket, the Jewish vote for McCain will be below the Bush vote in 2004, something closer to 20%. There may be some distrust and hesitation concerning Obama's Israeli policies, but there is active fear about the Republican, Christian right wing gaining power. Jews don't like Farakan, but Obama isn't Farakan, and there's been some time, now for Jews to read about and digest Obama's views, and recognize that he isn't that far out of the mainstream on Israel (he may not be the 100% all-Israel all the time Bush, he's no Jimmy Carter). Palin, however, is definitely Christianist. My sense is that for the Jewish SWING voter, especially older Jewish voters still sensitive about the Holocaust, the fear of the right wing is much more a gut, personal fear. Palin + the Rebuplican culture war convention (these are voters who remember that "cosmopolitan" used to be an anti-semitic code-word) would turn off these voters.
While we are talking about a VERY small proportion of the electorate, nevertheless, we are talking about two states which decided the last two elections. Florida decided the 2000 election by only 500 votes.
There are 750,000 Jews in Florida. There are 150,000 Jews in Ohio. If only 5% of them are convinced to switch their vote from McCain to Obama because of Sarah Palin and McCain's tack to the hard right, we're talking about a swing of about 80,000 votes in Florida - substantially more than the margin that lost Gore the election.
While the change in Ohio is negligible (there are far more born-again Christians in Ohio than Jews), the effect of Palin in Florida is quite real. So I believe the new polls showing Obama/McCain now neck and neck in Florida are probably pretty accurate.
not to beat the Jewish thing, but Jewish old people are a completely different breed of old people (that sounds crass, and I dont mean it to, but there are reasons for it)
Jews have generally (though not as much in this country, but still a little) been on the receiving end of some discrimination. Not on the same level as AA or homosexuals, i dont think, but the experience of living in america in the mid-20th century as a jew is completely different from the experience of living as almost any kind of christian (catholic, evangelical, etc.)
Second, the older Jews we're talking about generally retired to where they are now (Florida and increasingly Arizona). They generally retire there from the Northeast (New York and New England). Living your life in the hodge-podge melting pot that is New York or New England creates a completely different world view than living your entire life in the same town/city/state. My grandmother lives in a retirement community where an elderly white woman was dating (in that adorable, older person way) an elderly black man.
I don't think we can compare the elderly Jewish community in Florida with the elderly communities in more homogeneous areas of Ohio or PA. I'd expand that even to the entire elderly community in Florida, not just the Jews.
I still think Florida is an uphill battle for Obama, and I'd only devote serious resources to it if he has a ton of cash, or if Ohio starts looking like a longer shot. But I don't think McCain can rely on Florida. (And Joe Lieberman polls terribly down there, so he can't send his dream VP down there to shore up the vote)
Wouldn't it be funny if Palin turned the red states redder, and blue and purple states bluer thus flipping the 2000 result and having McCain win the popular by 1 or even 2% but losing the EV?
what would be funnier is if some hackers used the dodgy Diebold voting machines to fix every election for the Dems for the next oh, 20 years. Just to watch the republicans start moaning about how risky they are for a change!
Also, as a (relatively recent) Floridian, I think your general sentiments about why Obama might be in better shape down here are correct (and, yes, Palin's church's association with Jews for Jesus could, in fact, have an effect -- certainly my older Jewish relatives absolutely loathe this group). I would add that while picking Biden may have been a wash for Obama nationally, this is a state where Biden's experience/stature very much could help him (with precisely the older Hillary voters who may not have been entirely secure with Barack).
Gonna be interesting down here, and we're going to be working extra hard. I pray we don't need the lawyers on Nov. 4.
dawolf;
Read what I wrote: Here is the fact concerning polls: The are lagging trends, not predicting trends. The SuperTracker tries to predict, but it predicts only a return to zero. It assumes that what we see to day is what we will see tomorrow, only less so. McCain is thinking about how to change tomorrow when Obama is thinking about how to respond to yesterday. Your man cannot win unless he can get ahead of McCain.
Poll watching, while fun, only tells you where you have been, it doesn't tell you where you are going. Which candidate is setting all the messages? That is the candidate with the initiative. And unless Obama figures out a way to take that initiative back, which he hasn't had since Feb, then he's going to lose.
It's not a matter of polling. It's a matter of strategic thinking and execution. One candidate is demonstrating a phenomenal ability to excel at strategic election planning and execution. Obama is not that candidate.
Oz.
I don't think attacking Palin is a winning play for Obama. I think he desperately needs to change the narrative.
I think Obama needs a "moment of emotion". I've never seen him get really excited or happy or anything. Its always the same monotone from him. If he shatters that, I think it could be startling. I'm thinking of Al Gore kissing Tipper at the 2000 DNC, or Hillary breaking down to near tears on the primary campaign trail as she emoted how much winning the nomination meant to her.
Obama needs an outburst of emotion that shows the voters how much he really --wants-- to win. I think that is where he is losing this - McCain / Palin look like they --want-- it more because they have been more emotional, and it is connecting with people.
Obama needs a completely new tone.
@oz
polls only tell you where you are, not where you are going?
I'll make a simple prediciton: right now, McCain is just about at the peak of a bounce. Within 2 weeks, his figures will be lower than they are now, barring some unforseen event.
So where is McCain going? right now, he's about to start going downhill...
DaWolf said...
anyway, forget Gore.
Kerry+Iowa+New Mexico plus any of half a dozen win possibilities is where it's at. Those win possibilities are (in my own descending order, right now)
Colorado
Nevada
Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Montana+North Dakota
Agreed 100%, Nevada is slightly weaker because it's dependent on New Hampshire which might flip to McCain. Hard to say between FLorida and Virginia which is more likely to flip.
In all the states CO, VA, OH and PA Palin is better than Biden in the favorable/unfavorable rating.
But in FL they´re statistical tied: Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 42%. Biden receives favorable ratings from 51% and unfavorable ratings from 43%.
Oz-
You make me laugh. Your candidate was so far behind that he throws a hail mary because he believes he cannot win. That is a great strategy.
Obama was playing prevent, but will now attack. He is still ahead, and your candidate is in his bounce.
U're funny!!!!
brian;
I think Obama needs a "moment of emotion".
Let me grant you that Obama manages to pull this off without looking weak or a whiner. What then? He has captured America's attention and then where does he go with it?
Just like the Dem convention, he will think capturing attention is the goal. Wrong. The goal is capturing the themes of the election. And he's got no plan for that. No plan for what to do once he achieved victory in the Primaries.
So, I think it would be a bad thing for him to have his emotional moment unless he's got a plan for an 8 week schedule that maintains that attention. I don't see it.
Oz.
DaWolf said:
so that would be why he's been lagging in the polls up until about 3 days ago then?
Its relative. Obama had a huge tailwind. Bush is a very unpopular republican president. The democrats had a huge lead in party ID. This election shouldn't even be close. It should be the democrat in a landslide. McCain has outperformed the generic GOP ticket all summer, and now in fact leads Obama which is stunning.
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