Quantcast FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Palin's Overreach

9.03.2008

Palin's Overreach

In my articulation of Sarah Palin's goals for her speech tonight, I suggested that "it will be imperative for Palin not to overreach." The rest of her prepared remarks look like they should be pretty effective, but this is probably an exception:

And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves. I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a 'community organizer,' except that you have actual responsibilities."
We'll see how well she is able to deliver this line -- it is sure to get big applause in St. Paul. But it seems awfully petty for a party campaigning on the theme of service (of which there are other types apart from enlisting in the military) -- especially when Obama and Biden, if not always their supporters, have by and large been exceptionally gracious toward Palin . If you want a punchline that underscores liberal "elitism", why not go after Obama's time as the President of the Harvard Law Review instead?

64 comments

De Montfort said...

You can't be a liberal and be President of the Harvard Law Review. There's too much of a conservative bulwark in the law school there.


I wonder how many people will play the clip of Palin calling Hillary's complaining of sexism in the media "whining" after tonight...

LandStander said...

Hmmm....
Responsibilities like the kind you have when you hire a City Manager to take over the hard part of being mayor of 6,000 people, after the citizens start a recall petition?
Or the responsibility to tie a family's hands when faced with incest or rape, or both?
Or the responsibility to teach creationism is science class and ban questionable books?

assmole said...

I hope for her sake she leaves that 'humdinger' out. It will scream 'bitch'.

assmole said...

W.

NJ_Moderate said...

That is a fairly devastating line and will leave a mark on Obama. The VP is supposed to be the 'attack-dog' anyway.

OzJohnnie said...

Nate;

That is the stupidest in the tank comment you have made yet. Obama, when referring to her experience, made explicit reference to her time as a mayor while completely ignoring her time as governor. BO has begged for this punch in the face, the bozo.

And you would know this if you weren't such a MSNBC in the tank Obama worshiper.

Oz.

Just John said...

That will backfire - it means experience is fair game again and all Obama has to do is ask Americans who they think is best suited to take over if anything happens to himself or McCain.

Guess who wins THAT debate?

assmole said...

I hear Bristol has just become a grandmom. Pass on my congratulations to the lucky great-grandma, Nate.

OzJohnnie said...

landstandar;

Hmmm....
Responsibilities like the kind you have when you hire a City Manager to take over the hard part of being mayor of 6,000 people, after the citizens start a recall petition?
Or the responsibility to tie a family's hands when faced with incest or rape, or both?
Or the responsibility to teach creationism is science class and ban questionable books?


Good one! That's a really smart line of argument. I encourage you to keep up it, dummy.

Oz.

DanOregon said...

I like the "community organizer" line - of course it will all be in the delivery.
I think Palin needs to appear strong, self-assured and competent. If she plays the "lil' ol' me" card, I don't see it working.

vinraeth said...

Nate,

Try not to give the other side good advice in advance (such that they're able to change things). Just saying. :D

Nate said...

Oz,

Obama himself really hasn't said anything about Palin period, except to congratulate her.

andrewswift said...

I may have read this in Nixonland. If not, it's scary to think that the GOP has been running this campaign for 40 years now.

Michael Jones said...

The small-town angle might work, unfortunately. It's probably the only strategy McCain has left, and Palin is a good advocate of small-town life, warts and all.

This particular attack is a bit off though, since it begs attention to her record as a small-town mayor, which as we've all learned in the last 96 hours, is more than a bit suspect. Seems to be right out of the Bush/Cheney School of Government - equal parts fiscal recklessness and despotic cronyism.

assmole said...

let's guess which redneck party nj moderate supports. hmmm, it's really tough.

Mylegacy said...

The speech should be wonderful!

The very best that Rove and team could write for her. It'll play to whatever tiny slivers of hope she has.

All they can hope is that she has the skills to at least not flub the delivery. That shouldn't be too hard.

BUT, to think any of this speech was written by her, or in any way represents what she actually thinks - give me a break!

OzJohnnie said...

assmole;

At least you live down to your name. Maybe you should add small-minded bigot to the front of that. Like this: small-minded bigot assmole.

Give it a try. You can do it if you work hard.

Oz.

Harleypeyton said...

There's a line between spunky and bitchy. Cross the line, and folks wonder, "Who does she think she is?"

It may not be fair, but it's true. Just ask Ann Richards.

Nathan45 said...

I wonder how well this will go over with the christian conservative republican "community organizers" that she's supposed to be firing up.

assmole said...

I don't think Nixon would take cheap shots at community organizers.

OzJohnnie said...

Nate;

Quick response - wrong. Give me two minutes to get the link.

Oz.

assmole said...

Thank you for describing yourself, oz.

OzJohnnie said...

Nate;

On Anderson Cooper, speaking to experience:

AC: Some Republican critics say, you don’t have the experience to handle a situation like this [Hurricane Gustav]. They’ve in fact said that Governor Palin has more executive experience as mayor of a small town and as governor of a big state like Alaska. What’s your response?

BO: Well, you know, my understanding is that, uh, Governor Palin’s town of Wasilly [sic] has, uh, 50 employees, uh, uh, we’ve got 2500, uh, in this campaign. I think their budget is maybe $12 million a year. Uh, uh, we have a budget of about three times that just for the month. Uh, so I think that, uh, our ability to manage large systems, uh, and to, uh, execute, uh, I think has been made clear over the last couple of years. Uh, and certainly, in terms of, uh, the legislation that I’ve passed just dealing with this issue post-Katrina, uh, of how we handle emergency management. The fact that, uh, many of my recommendations were adopted and are being put in place, uh, as we speak indicates to extent to which we can provide the kinds of support and good service that the American people expect.



This line from Palin responds directly to this comment. And you may hope that the fact that you didn't know about it means that no one else knows about it. But that only because your in the tank, see?

Oz.

bondirotta said...

Well - Palin is now inviting inspection of her work as a mayor.

So it gives Biden an opening to discuss the book bannings, the efforts to fire the poor old librarian, the sales tax increase, the debt explosion, etc.

stevie314159 said...

That line sounds a little like "change you could xerox", which didn't go over too well for Hillary, did it?

Kevin said...

The GOP base will love it, but I really think most moderates and independents (like myself, but admittedly lean Dem)won't really buy it. Whether the GOP base votes holding its nose for McCain or votes enthusiastically for McCain, a vote is a vote - zero sum game. If Palin does not appeal to moderates and independents, McCain's VP pick will be a flop. The question is: can McCain expand beyond the GOP base and hold on to VA and CO? This is where the race will be won or lost. Obama is already looking good in IA and NM. I'm really looking forward to the next CO poll.

Nathan45 said...

OZ: do you know the difference between running a campaign and Obama's experience as a "Community organizer" in the 80s and 90s?

the comments arn't related.

And I like how you quote every "Uh", I'm sure you'd much prefer all of your politicians give scripted canned responses, memorized word for word, rather than actually thinking while they're talking.

assmole said...

bOZo doesn't realize we're giving good advice to Palin -who we like tremendously- to ditch a line that will bomb in independent-voter-land if not in the convention hall, should she go ahead with it. How very small-minded of us. Moron.

stevie wonder is exactly right with the 'change you can xerox' comparison.

malanb5 said...

I guess the Bush right wing team have already indoctrinated her in the partisan politics of Washington. While he was a community organizer, you were in college at the University of Idaho. Come on, I thought Palin might be independent and different but it looks like she's going to be more of a puppet.

LAT said...

why going to the little town where she was Mayor should have happened before they offered her the job.

Palin celebrating her earmarks

http://www.washingtonindependent.com/4328/more-on-palins-true-stand-on-earmarks

Christopher said...

Do you SERIOUSLY want to draw attention to the fact that you were RECENTLY a mayor of a town of 6000 people. That should scare people out of their knickers.

Obama has been vetted, you have not. Obama has received millions of voted, you have not. Obama has met with foreign leaders, you have not. Obama has met with military leaders, you have not.

The American people are not idiots Mrs. Palin. Stop insulting us.

Matt said...

Just John:

"That will backfire - it means experience is fair game again and all Obama has to do is ask Americans who they think is best suited to take over if anything happens to himself or McCain."

Are you kidding yourself? Seriously, I think most will agree that Palin and Obama have experience which are both comparable---as is McCain and Biden. However, Palin is VP nominee, while Obama is a P nominee. Come on! The experience argument is a loser in as much as anything one says about Palin's experience, or lack thereof, can easily be applied to Obama. Would you rather have an unexperienced president or an unexperienced vice president.

Nate's argument the VP is insurance doesn't hold water either. The probability that the VP will have lacking experience by the time the insurance is needed is mostly nil. THe probability that the P will have lacking experience is guranteed, provided the dems win.

jaiti said...

If this Old Fart Convetion isn't the fakest thing out there, I don't know what is. Give me a break. These guys are interested in bringing as much change to Washington, as I am in seeing the 35th and Shields Mulletheads winning another world series.

OzJohnnie said...

nathan45;

do you know the difference between running a campaign and Obama's experience as a "Community organizer" in the 80s and 90s?

So running for President and gaining the Dem nomination qualifies him for the office? That must be your argument since I think you are implying that a campaign is pretty serious experience compared to a community organizer. On that at least I agree, but I think the Presidency requires a little more.

Bottom line: if Palin is not qualified, then BO is monumentally not qualified.

So keep pushing her qualifications. It's brilliant.

Oz.

Rhys said...

Well Palin will lose any sympathy *I* might have had with that wisecrack.

EmonOkari said...

As this site's comments spiral down into partisan kookery (on BOTH sides), the soul of its intent may be lost once and for all. All that remains is: 'My candidate is better than yours!' and 'No way! MY candidate is better!' Its to the point where one can guess with confidence what silly drivel will be spewed in each comment, simply by reading the nametag of who is posting. So very sad to see this wonderful site come to this.

SourAaron said...

Whats funny is it compares something that was selfless, passing up jobs that paid 10x on wall street to be a low paid community organizer, with something that was, as we are finding out, cunning and manipulative, bringing national issues into a mayoral campaign so you could be the mayor of Wasilla.

It highlights differences, sure, but probably not the ones she, I mean, ove thinks it does.

xyz said...

WOW! That is very ungrateful of Palin. Obama has said nothing but good things about her, he even came out and went out of his way to defend Palin on her daughter's pregnency by saying that his mom had him when she was 18, effectively closing that issue firmly and this is how Palin pays him? With a cheap partisan shot? This is someone who is supposed to be an "independent" and a "reformer" even though it seems that she is launching an unprovoked attack on Obama? Republicans should be ashamed.

David said...

Rhys - Really, who do you think you're fooling? What "sympathy" have you ever harbored for Palin?

Peterbilt said...

Oh, I hope she does. Make my day.

Matt said...

xyz:

"WOW! That is very ungrateful of Palin. Obama has said nothing but good things about her, he even came out and went out of his way to defend Palin on her daughter's pregnency by saying that his mom had him when she was 18, effectively closing that issue firmly and this is how Palin pays him"

This is a good point. However, remember when McCain put out this ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4KIvRTg6KQ

McCain stayed off Obama's night. Obama interviewed with O'Reilly and that will play the same night as McCain's acceptance. There is plenty to go around...

David said...

xyz - Obama has explicitly scoffed at Palin's experience as Wasilla's mayor (see Oz's quote). It's fair game.

Andy said...

On the subject of Sarah Palin - I hope everyone enjoyed the last National Enquirer Adultery story (John Edwards), as apparently they have a new one coming up. It seems not all is well in the Palin marriage. So sad. Seems like the USA is not the only union Ms Palin wants independence from.

Rhys said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Nathan45 said...

Oz:

I like how you quoted me, and then posted an unrelated attack on Obama's credentials. Feel free to admit any time that your first post was bunk, because Obama was talking about his campaign and Palin was talking about when he was a community organizer back in the 80s and 90s.

As for Obama's credentials:

Graduated from Colombia University, Political science specialized in international relations.

J.D. from Harvard University ( Magna Cum Laude ), President of Harvard Law Review.

Taught Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago for 12 years.

Active for decades in community politics, head of a committee that registered hundreds of thousands of new voters in Illinois.

State Senator for 7 years.
United States senator since 2005.

And more importantly: Has been in the media spotlight for the past 2 years, and has repeatedly shown himself to be knowledgeable and intelligent about every issue.

As for Sarah Palin, nobody knows who she is. Obama has spent his whole life active in and studying national and international politics, and the past 2 years discussing it and debating it on the international stage.

While Palin has basically admitted that she's never put serious thought into issues unrelated to Alaska.

Charles said...

From watching CSPAN, I think it's funny that about three hours after they had a "community organizer" (I think Carolyn Dunn) from small-town KS speak in the convention, Palin will turn around and pretty much say that what she does isn't important.

Rhys said...

"Rhys - Really, who do you think you're fooling? What "sympathy" have you ever harbored for Palin?"

I dislike her as a candidate, and I think she's made some poor and selfish decisions. But I certainly wouldn't wish this disaster on her.

If she had returned the sort of class Obama did the other day when speaking about her, I would have given her a lot of credit.

You can't be an attack dog and also cry for pity at the same time.

Nathan45 said...

Even if they were right about edwards, I still don't take the national enquirer seriously.

MAYBE once THE AMAZING BAT BOY turns out to be real, then i'll have to admit the enquirer was right about everything all along.

somethings in the wolf said...

Sarah is outshining McCain.

Russell said...

Rhys, I respectfully disagree. You can be an attack dog and cry for pity at the same time. The GOP's been doing it for years. Hillary Clinton did it. It's doable. And I think that line is good for Palin, since I've yet to see a bio that didn't mention Obama's "years as a community organizer".

But, I agree that for a campaign dedicated to service to mock the other candidate's service is a poor choice. And I don't think that line's gonna be enough to save her from the media onslaught.

David said...

Andy -

Not that it's relevant, but I just found it funny that you prefaced your comment with "On the subject of Sarah Palin". How many comments, on this site and others over the past several days, have not been on the subject of Sarah Palin?

I for one will be glad when this campaign settles back down into a state of relative normalcy.

Baz744 said...

As to the experience issue:

The Republican argument here is based on a faulty premise: that premise being that there is a meaningful comparison between Obama's relative inexperience compared to McCain, and Palin's near total lack of experience.

1) Most Americans agree that Obama's experience catapults him over that threshold question of "readiness to lead." Once that threshold question has been met, other leadership qualities become more important. In Obama's case, his expert campaign management and ability to inspire show clearly his "readiness to lead."

2) Most Americans agree that Palin's experience does not. She's not even ready for a press conference. Is she really ready to lead the nation? I guess she'll try to make that case tonight. I'm skeptical.

David said...

Nathan45: "MAYBE once THE AMAZING BAT BOY turns out to be real, then i'll have to admit the enquirer was right about everything all along."

The national coming out party of bat boy will transform this political race, for sure.

Can you say, "October surprise"?

Russell said...

Is anyone else bothered that, by the standard used to say Palin has more experience than Obama, she has more experience than John McCain as well?

Baz744 said...

"Is anyone else bothered that, by the standard used to say Palin has more experience than Obama, she has more experience than John McCain as well?"

However many times Republicans put the word "executive" in front of the word "experience," they'll never convince the American public that:

a) Obama doesn't meet the threshold question of "ready to be president." He's already demonstrated that in his masterful handling of his convention--especially in the face of the massive media buildup of the PUMA conflict, which was transparently designed to drive the convention into chaos.

And,

b) That Palin does meet the threshold question of "readiness to lead." She's not ready for a press conference. And they're claiming she's ready to lead the country? Not buying it.

Chris said...

Christopher: Do you SERIOUSLY want to draw attention to the fact that you were RECENTLY a mayor of a town of 6000 people. That should scare people out of their knickers.

Obama has been vetted, you have not. Obama has received millions of voted, you have not. Obama has met with foreign leaders, you have not. Obama has met with military leaders, you have not.

The American people are not idiots Mrs. Palin. Stop insulting us.


Sadly, I wish I could agree with you. (I think the fact that people think that the current and former contents of the Palin women's uteri are of grave national concern dispels that notion.)

obsessed said...

Andy: On the subject of Sarah Palin - I hope everyone enjoyed the last National Enquirer Adultery story (John Edwards), as apparently they have a new one coming up. It seems not all is well in the Palin marriage. So sad. Seems like the USA is not the only union Ms Palin wants independence from.

As the black dude says in the "He Said it First" youtube video: No way!

veganfishtacos said...

Sarah would just be continuing in her soulmate's footsteps- distorting facts to present some sort of false reality.

In truth, Palin's illustrious tenure as mayor of Wasilla is almost perfectly in synch with Obama's time as an Illinois State Senator, with a district which has more people than the state of Alaska.

When Obama was a community organizer, Palin was on the City Council, and when he started at Harvard Law School (where he would graduate magna cum laude), she was a sportscaster in Anchorage.

William said...

I'd actually like to see Gov. Palin spend 15 minutes on the southside of Chicago before commenting

John Peterson said...

The line is similar to one espoused by Jim Geraghty of National Review Online:

Being a mayor is kind of like being a community organizer, except mayors have to get results and are held accountable if they don't.

I wonder if this comment, like my other perfectly reasonable remarks, will be deleted.

Have at it, barbarians.

Diogo said...

I completely agree with Nate about that section of the speech. And, what is worse for her, that is likely to be the part that gets the most press, as they always love to show candidates going negative.

Not that the "experience" line is not an effective line. It is actually the best thing they have going for them. The problem is that part is not an attack on Obama himself, but on community organizers. What does she gain by this? Nothing, as there are other ways to put the experience argument forth without making fun of a group of people who are, well, the most "organized" in the community.

It shouldnt amount to much, but there is a reply there that almost writes itself- community leaders talking about a crisis in their community, how they were able to bring the community together, blah blah blah and then a "we have responsibilities to our community, not to parties or lobbyists." In any

Tim R said...

If Palin is going to attack Obama then I hope she is prepared to be hit back hard..........

Laura in WA said...

Actually, if she's arguing that her experience as mayor should be compared to Obama's community organizer experience, that's fair.

After working as a community organizer, Obama went to Harvard Law School, was president of the Harvard Law Review, graduated with honors, practiced civil rights law, directed a voter registration project, taught constitutional law, served 8 years as an Illinois state senator, and then served nearly four years (so far) as a United States senator.

After being mayor, Palin served one year as chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, and then approximately 20 months (so far) as governor of a very small state (population-wise.)

Putting their resumes side-by-side puts the "who has more experience?" debate into perspective.

dhlii said...

With few exceptions, it is extremely hard to find either women or minority candidates that are going to have the same resume as people who have been senator for multiple decades. Obama has an excellent resume for a national minority contender. Palin is no Hillary - but few women are. The whole experience debate serves McCain. We can debate how many community organizers it takes to sit on the head of a mayor of a town of 6500. We can argue about what is "executive" experience and whether it is important or not. Taking Palin down comes at Obama's expense, a price McCain would be happy to pay. Obama has an impressive background. But very little of it required him to accomplish anything. I would prefer discussing almost any issue with Obama and Biden, but his singular actual accomplishment is running this campaign - and while some aspects of that are impressive, it is not actually the same as getting the garbage picked up, or getting a pipeline built. We have problems to solve. The federal government already operates on the misperception that money solves all problems and there is an unlimited supply of that. Wnat is there in Obama's (or McCain's or Biden's) resume that demonstrates an ability to accomplish anything with limited resources ? His campaign has been amazing, but its forte has been the ability to inspire his followers to reach deep into their pockets and give it unprecidented amounts of money. I will be happy to grant that he is the most charasmatic, person on the national stage. That if we need to motivate beleivers to reach deep, he is top of the list. But we are not electing him to be chief minister, or the head of the Read Cross. We expect him to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, reduce CO2 emisions, provide healthcare to everyone, prevent foreclosure on our homes, defeat terrorism, and ... And we expect him to do so without raising taxes, without increasing prices, without tanking the economy, and without stomping all over each of our myriads of personal pet virtues. Frankly none of our contenders can deliver on that, and some compromises will have to be made. There is nothing anywhere in Obama's background that indicates that he has ever had to balance what he wanted against what he could afford, that he grasps that in much of the world there are limits to the money available, that you can not just go out and ask for more. Our economy has done very well over the past 50 years under presidents (such as Kennedy and Clinton) that worked hard to reduce taxes on everyone - including the wealthy, and faired abysmally under those that thought they could raise taxes to accomplish every good purpose under the sun. As this unending election season has progressed, the actual ddifferences on policy between all of the candidates have diminished. At this point all that seems to remain are eaches approach to the judiciary - Obama's is bad (I though he was a constitutional lawyer?), McCain's is much worse. And taxes.Obama has not seen any tax he does not want to increase, and sees no connection at all between taxes and the economy. He seems to beleive that it is all a zero sum game - and if he does not understand the world is not a zzero sum game then he is unqualified. McCain operates under the delusion that he and Palin can carve hundreds of billions in pork from the federal budget. While I have zero doubt we could have a highly effective federal government with a bombing economy on a fraction of what it costs now, I am not irrational enough to expect McCain will actually make any progress in acheiving that. But atleast McCain will be trying.