Sarah Palin's speech tonight exists within a weird middle ground between fairly low expectations and a fairly high degree of difficulty.
Voters have questions about Palin's background, her governing philosophy, her readiness to lead, and her position on a variety of specific issues. It will be impossible to address all of these within the context of a single speech -- particularly for someone who had never spoken to a national audience before last Friday. On the other hand, the pundits, recognizing the rough couple of days that she's had in the press, will most likely be inclined to react sympathetically toward her. So may voters at home, buoyed by what will inevitably be an enthusiastic response in the Xcel Center.
Under these circumstances, it will be imperative for Palin not to overreach. I would avoid any specific claims -- like her arguably false claim in Dayton on Friday that she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere -- that won't hold up to a FactCheck.org vetting. And I wouldn't make any assertion to expertise in foreign policy. A claim, for instance, along the lines of what Cindy McCain said the other day -- that Palin is a foreign policy expert because Alaska is close to Siberia -- will ring hollow even if articulated well, and if articulated poorly, could easily become her Potato-e moment. The debate against Joe Biden, which Palin will have much more time to prepare for, is a better forum than that, an opportunity to demonstrate rather than assert her working knowledge of foreign policy.
I do think she has to convey a certain seriousness of purpose -- one overly cute reference to mooseburgers is probably one too many -- but there are ways to do that without invoking foreign policy, such as talking about "small town values". A throwaway applause line or two critiquing the media is probably worthwhile, so long as it seems good-natured rather than defensive.
But basically, she shouldn't try and do too much. If she pours the media half a glass, they'll most likely be inclined to call it full.
9.03.2008
Palin's Goal Tonight: No Potatoe
@ 8:44 AM
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"For a start it assumes that all the members on the Supreme Court can be judged on a simple right/left basis. Chief Justice Earl Warren was appointed by a Republican and then led what most historians would think of as a very liberal court. So that isn't necesarily true."
Yes, but that was back when presidents at least made an effort to pick non-partisan judges. Was there any doubt in your mind as to how Dumbya's hacks would turn out?
"Thats why the Federal Bench gets so backed up, to much politics in the judicial system. And when they aren't being backed up they are being filled with substandard but partisan judges."
And that's why this election matters so much, even if the parties themselves act indistinguishably on issues.
Another Lefty Smear Bites The Dust!
She also promoted mandatory contraception education AND Vetoed a bill that would limit Gay Rights.
Everything you guys have been saying about her is turning out to be a lie?
Hmmmmm.....
Palin has not pushed creation science as governor
By DAN JOLING – 11 hours ago
ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — As a candidate for governor, Sarah Palin called for teaching creationism alongside evolution in public schools. But after Alaska voters elected her, Palin, now Republican John McCain's presidential running mate, kept her campaign pledge to not push the idea in the schools.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gV5jvU52RD3WBflzbmSu5l6zwOqAD92V3VQG0
Humanist,
If Obama is tied in the Florida district that includes Hialea, then you are right these are important numbers.
The PA 10th is also interesting because it was solid R until Carney won in 2006 and is still virtually 100% White.
Obama's down 50-41, which if a general trend in PA, puts the state solidly in his column.
Mpm, you exude illogic. I didn't bother to read past:
1. Obama does not think small town life is relevant in today's America. He dismissed her experience as Mayor. There are lots of small town voters in swing states.
I live in a town of < 3,000 souls in New Hampshire. We don't have a mayor, but I would not vote for a ticket that included one of our 3 selectmen as a VP nominee!
You can kiss NH goodbye now, John McCain. Only 4 electoral votes, but if Gore had won them in 2000, Florida would not have mattered.
Kennyb -
I accept your comments.
I don't think his dismissal of her small town experience helps him.
You tell me how it does.
He also arrogantly forgot to mention that she is a Governor, which sort of made him look uninformed and clueless. I suppose you think that makes him look good too.
What did someone forget to tell him she was a Governor?
It made him look less than smart.
Virginia Conservative: The HOPE CHANGE stuff was only in response to the (stale) OMG ALL MCCAIN SAYS IS HE WAS A POW! LOL! "attack".
But is that kind of response likely to change anyone's mind or advance an argument?
By the way, if one hold that a person exists at the time of fertilization and that abortion is therefore murder, should women who get abortions and their doctors be prosecuted for murder and, in states where it's applicable, made eligible for execution? If not, why not?
Kennyb -
If you don't read my posts, why are you quoting it?
...and I am the one exuding "illogic" (is that even a word)?
...laughing my A off
Kennyb -
I am telling you what she will say...not what I think. I am telling you what she can say that would make Obama look bad.
...which means she might say it.
Although Obama does not even remotely understand small town life, that is true.
Today's Borat award for the most creative violation of the house rule (Don't. Be. An. Asshole.)
goes to Glenn in Colorado, by acclamation.
Mpm, it's about her ovious lack of experience, not that she hails from a small town, or one of the least populated states in the nation.
And "arrogantly forgot to mention she was governor"? How does someone "arrogantly forget" something? Maybe Palin "arrogantly forgot" to tell the American people that she was for the Bridge to Nowhere before she was against it. Maybe she "arrogantly forgot" to tell the McCain vetters that her husband was a member of a pro-secessionist political party for 10 years and she attended and addressed their conventions?
And she may be a governor, but Obama represented as many people in his state senatorial district (the 13th district, with a population of 653,647 in the 2000 census) as she does as governor of Alaska (2000 census of 626,932). He did it for 7 years, to her 19 months. Did I mention the Alaska legislature meets for 90 days a year?
OK, mpm, fair enough. I read the rest of your post. If she tries to do half of those things, she will be biting off more than she can chew, but it does not mean she is experienced enough to become President in a moment of crisis (meaning McCain's assassination or death). Go ahead and keep touting the talking points about how much "executive experience" she has. I heard Guiliani do it this morning and it was truly laughable.
Rhys, Actually Earl Warren was a very partisan appointment. He had been Republican Vice Presidential candidate in 1948. President Eisenhower called Warren his biggest mistake.
Actually the court has always been partisan (William Howard Taft was both President and later Chief Justice, Charles Evans Hughes resigned from the bench to run as President and was later appointed Chief Justice. And I can't begin to list all the Attorneys General who later served as Justices. (Just imagine Justice John Ashcroft- makes you shudder right?) So a partisan court is nothing new. BUT the current court is so partisanly divided, and so much a part of the political discourse in unhealthy ways.
Also the quality of people getting appointed seems to be going down. I know Harriet Miers got turned down, buit look at some of the recent appointments. How did Clarence Thomas get on the bench?
I believe both parties will be fairly satisfied with Sarah Palin's speech. Back home in "Alaahska" some compare her to Obama because of her charm, youth and freshness. (she ran as a "Change"-candidate in 2006.) She is not compared to Obama because of her speaking skills.
But this woman knows how to use her charm, and I expect that I and many with me, will be charmed by her Hockey Mom/ All American Gal authenticity. But her charm works better in an intimate setting (like TV-studio) than in an a big stage.
As an Obama supporter I wish her luck - but not to much luck...
Yes, lompe, some Alaskans favorably compare Palin to Obama. Such as....wait for it....Sarah Palin herself:
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/2008/09/08/080908ta_talk_gourevitch
Regarding Palin's experience as Governor of Alaska. The major problem is not that it is a small state in terms of population (that is a real but minor issue). A real issue is the nature of being governor in Alaska compared to being governor of any of the other states (with the possible exception of Nevada).
Thanks to oil revenue Alaska's only real budgetary issue is what to do with the surplus funds generate by this income stream. The governor does not have to balance state revenues against state needs, which is the kind of experience that governor of another state would have, and which the President will have, which gives rise to the (indeed accurate) sense that a governorship is good training for the presidency.
When Tim Kaine was the subject of speculation as being Obama's choice for VP, Karl Rove attacked his qualifications, saying that he didn't have enough experience.
I dont't know if at the time that Kaine served and councilor and Mayor of Richmond whther the job was full time or part-time, but I'd be willing to bet that even if it were part-time it would require more work than being councilor or mayor of a small town. Richmond has a population of more than 200,000, and it is located in a metropollitan area of more than a million.
So let's compare Kaine vs. Palin:
Total time holding office:
Kaine: just under 13 years.
Palin: just under 10 years
Time in municipal government:
Kaine: 6 years
Palin: 8 years
but Kaine's experience was almost certainly more demanding.
Time in state government:
Kaine: 6 years, 8 months (He was Lieut. Gov of Virginia before becoming Governor)
Palin: 1 year, 8 months
Time as governor:
Kaine: 2 years 8 months
Palin: 1 year 8 months.
I think most people would agree that being governor of Virginia is more complex than being governor of Alaska.
So if Rove thought that Kaine's background was insufficient, what does that say about Palin's?
Now I know that Rove is not to be relied upon for factual accuracy - he never let the truth stand in the way of a good smear, but it would be hard for the GOP to disown him.
ooops...this might come up!
Obama and Biden Voted for Bridge to Nowhere (and opted not to use that money for Katrina Relief)
By John Powers, Chicago Daily Observer
Now that Alaska is front and center in the news again, it is a good time to catch up on a favorite story, The Bridge to Nowhere, using the Washington Post US Congress Votes Database.
Though Gov. Palin originally supported the earmark spending on the Ketchikan bridge (“to nowhere), she eventually killed the project, chosing to spend Federal money on other infrasturcture programs.
However, Sen. Biden and Sen. Obama voted for funding the Bridge, even when given a second chance by Sen. Tom Coburn, who proposed shifting earmark funds to Katrina relief.
Sen. McCain did not vote on the Coburn Amendment, though he is on record as opposing the Ketchikan bridge earmark.
Click Here
Judas -
Rove is not the one who said she had "Zero" experience...
Obama did.
Rove was saying that Kaine is unaccomplished, and less around time experience.
80% of Alaskans seem to think Palin is a good Governor.
What are Kaine's approvals?
The comments are really improving. Thanks to many of you for your comments and your information. I am learning a lot. As to the opposition, VC has certainly cleaned up his act from earlier. Mule Rider has so far kept his word, and Stop-the-Stutter, (the name itself makes the blood boil), hasn’t been around for awhile. It is all good. Having said that, let me move the mean downward.
Reed College rocks SM. Leftist women are the hottest. I’ve been with a woman from Evergreen since old John was living in the POW camp. She and I had a lot more fun back then than he did, to my view that’s just because we weren’t on a mission to kill in vain.
Remember McCain was against the budget busting Bush tax cuts before he was for them.
Experience, ready to be president was the criteria before he thought a Moose-bashing Barbie would do better.
REMEMBER, he says character is his main qualification both before he called his opponent an appeaser and a traitor and after.
My touch stone for McCain's character is his joke at the expense of Chelsea Clinton. I don’t give a damn how long ago that was, Character is not supposed to be subject to time.
This election is not about Obama, it is about preventing more ultra conservatives from joining the Supreme Court and protecting our democracy from four more years of the republican concept of elected dictators in time of war, (or anytime?). Just say no to perpetual war. We are tough enough and brave enough to have a vigorous open democracy and keep safe while doing so.
"REMEMBER, he says character is his main qualification both before he called his opponent an appeaser and a traitor and after."
Citation please....
Let's deal in some facts please...
midpointman: Obama and Biden Voted for Bridge to Nowhere (and opted not to use that money for Katrina Relief)
I followed the link but it had little more than what you put in the post. Such assertions can be tremendously misleading; I doubt that there was ever a separate vote on the "bridge to nowhere." That's what makes it an earmark, right? That there was no separate vote? Surely Congress doesn't vote individually on each of the thousands of earmark requests?
Without knowing what else was in the legislation, it's impossible to say whether the votes were good ones or not. Legislators will often accept things they don't agree with to get the things they think are needed. (Witness Obama's willingness to accept some offshore drilling but only if it's a part of a comprehensive energy policy that has the proposals that he thinks are necessary to get us out of our oil fix.)
If you've got more information, go ahead and post it.
I don't have the number ot hand but I think Kaine's approvals are pretty good- certainly in the 60-70% area?? maybe I am over stating. But the other thing is that Alaska is a Republican state, Virginia is trending purple to blue, but certainly more competetive than Alaska, which is going to have an effect on approval ratings.
Dsimon -
Just passing on what the Chicago Observer Is Reporting.
The full text of the article is in my post. Stop making up stories.
Obama voted against Katrina Aid and for the "Bridge To Nowhere"
Deal with it...he is not the God some people think he is.
...what, you can't Google Kaine's approvals?
54% in March
57% in April
Not bad, don't get me wrong.
They are not 80%. As far as I know Kaine has not gone after his own party establishment either.
Kaine is a likable Governor, but Rove's point is that he has not done much.
That is a judgment call, it was not about time in office.
If you have a short time in office and cannot point to a thematic story, Rove is probably right.
Palin does have a short time in office, but even her critics agree she has shaken things up.
That is the important distinction.
These are Olberman's talking points from last night. Olberman can't think outside his ideology. That is a problem for him.
dsimon -
Obama supports offshore drilling only if he can get a windfall tax on it that is so huge it becomes uneconomic to drill.
That is his strategy.
It is silly if he really wants energy independence.
Why is an oil company going to drill if they are going to give all the money to the Government?
They are better off drilling in Nigeria, and that is exactly what would happen.
Any economist knows that.
Kaine's numbers:
http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=13982
kennyb, we can't blame her for trying (to compare herself to Obama). Who doesn't want to be compared to the most popular politician alive?
But I have to say that her appearance is a breath of fresh air in the Republican party. But she is no Obama!
Whoa -
Look at Webb's numbers. 47%. I can see why Obama did not pick him.
Looks like you might have a tough seat to defend in a couple of years.
midpointman: The full text of the article is in my post. Stop making up stories.
I didn't make anything up. I only pointed out that you didn't provide much to go on. What else was in the legislation? Do you know? Was it a stand-alone vote? Is there any way to tell? Looks to me that it was a part of a rather large piece of legislation. Voting for what may have been compromise legislation doesn't mean approval of everything in the legislation, does it? Just a thought, for those who want to know the facts before reaching a conclusion.
Obama supports offshore drilling only if he can get a windfall tax on it that is so huge it becomes uneconomic to drill.
That is his strategy.
It is silly if he really wants energy independence.
I think it's really silly to drill if we want energy independence. Even if we increase production by 50% (which no one thinks is close to likely), we'll still be importing about half our oil. So drilling won't get us there. In fact, if drilling lowers the price of oil, we'll use more of it; that's simple supply and demand economics. The Europeans have made different choices, taxed the hell out of gas, and use less of it. (And if the price of oil is high enough, there will be an economic incentive to drill even with a windfall profits tax--which, incidentally, I don't agree with.)
But anyway, regardless of whether one agrees with Obama's energy policy or not, the point of my post was not to say whether he was right or wrong but that politicians will often agree to vote for legislation that has parts they don't agree with in order to pass the parts they do agree with. It's a very common occurrence.
The real story here is that idiot Nader is becoming a factor again...
Iowa (828 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 55, McCain 40
Obama 51, McCain 38, Nader 4, Barr 3, McKinney 2
Minnesota (742 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 53, McCain 41
Obama 51, McCain 37, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 1
Ohio (685 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 47, McCain 45
Obama 45, McCain 44, Nader 5, Barr 2, McKinney 1
HOT MIC STRIKES AGAIN!!!!
Republican Strategist Mike Murphy and others...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
dsimon -
Tell me how not having oil makes us independent?
Do you think solar cars will be in every garage tomorrow?
My goodness.
What you hate high paying blue collar jobs like running an oil rig?
Like Palin's husband does?
I thought you guys were for jobs?
No, better that we make Putin and Chavez rich and our own people poor.
That is why you lose elections, because this is what you really think.
People want security, not ideology.
Talk about bloopers...WOW!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YooKkyikXw0
I knew Obama was for gay rights, but I did not know that!
Terry Moran...hoping he could reel that one back in.
Good stuff, not matter what your political leanings.
midpointman: Do you think solar cars will be in every garage tomorrow?
No, but that's not what's necessary (and I think you know it).
Our present fuel requirements for cars are in the mid-20 mpg. range, scheduled to go up to 35 mpg. by 2020. That's simply pathetic. Europe presently has a voluntary standard of 44 mpg, and is going to a mandatory average of 48 mpg in 2012. So those cars are available--starting right now. If we were serious about our oil problem, we could substantially increase our fleet fuel efficiency by 50% to 100% in 10 to 15 years. Since 45% of our oil goes into our gas tanks, that would result in a cut in demand of 15% to 22% right there--even if we did nothing else. But it requires us to make different choices if we're going to really tackle the problem.
And at the end of that 10-15 year period, if we're serious, we should have cars coming onto the market that don't use gas at all, or use very little of it. (Or do we not believe in American innovation anymore?) You must know that they don't have to be solar-powered. They could be electric, or fuel cell, or biofuel. Designs are in the pipeline (so to speak) already.
What you hate high paying blue collar jobs like running an oil rig?
I'm for even better paying jobs in developing other, cleaner, and independent fuel sources and the vehicles that use them. Lots more jobs there than in oil rigs.
People want security, not ideology.
And if we keep making the same choices we've been making, we'll wind up just as insecure as we are now. Security means making different decisions for the long term, not repeating the mistakes that got us here in the first place.
It's not ideology. It's looking at the facts and taking the problem seriously. Ideology is believing that oil that won't come onto the market for at least 7 years will have some effect on gas prices today.
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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