How popular is Sarah Palin? So popular that she's almost as well regarded as the original baller, Dick Cheney, at the time he was rolled out as the Republican VP nominee in 2000.
There are three fresh favorability polls on Sarah Palin that were conducted in whole or on part since her speech to the Republican Convention on Wednesday. These are from Rasmussen, ABC News and Diageo/Hotline, respectively. On average between these three polls, Palin is regarded favorably by 50.3 percent of voters, and unfavorably by 33.0 percent of voters, for a net score of +17.3:Palin (2008)In the abstract, these are not bad numbers. In fact, as Scott Rasmussen points out, they compare favorably to the numbers Barack Obama and John McCain have compiled for most of the election cycle -- and Obama and McCain are relatively popular by the standards of Presidential candidates.
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Rasmussen 9/4/08 58 37 (+21)
ABC News 9/4/08 50 37 (+13)
Hotline 9/4/08 43 25 (+18)
==========================================
AVERAGE 50.3 33.0 (+17.3)
By the benchmark of other VP candidates, however, Palin's favorability ratings are relatively poor.
Here, for instance, from PollingReport.com, is a compilation of favorability ratings for Dick Cheney at the time of the Republican Convention in 2000:Cheney (2000)Cheney's favorables weren't quite as high as Palin's, but his unfavorables were only about half as much, giving him a net score of +28, easily bettering Palin's numbers. How about Al Gore's running mate in 2000, Joe Lieberman? Again, let's take a complication of polls from around the time of his respective party convention:
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
NBC/WSJ 8/3/00 46 17 (+29)
Fox 8/10/00 53 17 (+36)
Gallup 8/5/00 44 22 (+22)
Time/CNN 8/??/00 43 18 (+25)
=======================================
AVERAGE 46.5 18.5 (+28.0)Lieberman (2000)As with Cheney, Lieberman's favorability scores weren't quite as high as Palin's, but almost nobody disliked Joe Lieberman (my, how times have changed), giving him a substantially better net score.
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Gallup 8/19/00 55 13 (+42)
Fox 8/10/00 48 10 (+38)
NBC/WSJ 8/??/00 40 11 (+29)
CNN 8/10/00 37 14 (+23)
=========================================
AVERAGE 45.0 12.0 (+33.0)
As we move forward to 2004, Dick Cheney's ratings had tanked -- he polled at about a 40/45 in most surveys four years ago -- but John Edwards' numbers were relatively strong compared to Palin's:Edwards (2004)
Lest Democrats get too giddy about this, Joe Biden's ratings aren't any better than Palin's -- and worse than those of other recent VP nominees:
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Gallup 8/1/04 59 27 (+22)
CBS 8/1/04 35 18 (+17)
Pew 8/8/04 58 24 (+34)
Newsweek 7/30/04 52 28 (+24)
Time 8/5/04 48 20 (+28)
Annenberg 8/5/04 44 27 (+17)
Fox 8/4/04 51 28 (+23)
=========================================
AVERAGE 49.6 24.6 (+25.0)Biden (2008)
Why have these past VP candidates gotten such strong favorability scores? It stems from the do-no-harm rule. The conventional wisdom is that a VP pick is more likely to be a reason to vote against a candidate than a reason to vote for him, making it unusual to select one who will trigger the strong reactions that Palin or Biden do.
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Rasmussen 8/23/08 48 34 (+14)
ABC News 9/4/08 54 30 (+24)
Hotline 9/4/08 42 29 (+13)
==========================================
AVERAGE 48.0 31.0 (+17.0)
Palin is probably an exception to that rule in both directions. I think she will turn out votes for John McCain. The impressive number is not so much her favorable ratings but the proportion of those that are strong favorables: 40 percent of Rasmussen's respondents, and 33 percent of ABC's, said they had a strongly favorable view of Palin. This is unusual for a VP nominee.
But, Palin will also lose votes for McCain -- and it's not clear that the losses won't outweigh the gains. Remember, favorability ratings should play into the strengths of a politician like Sarah Palin, who is charming and telegenic. But liking someone is not the same thing as wanting to vote for them; I have a very favorable view of my friend Eric, but wouldn't want his fingers anywhere near the nuclear trigger. And on preparedness measures, Palin polls unusually poorly: by a 42-50 margin (-8), voters in the ABC poll did not think she has the right experience to serve effectively as President; Biden's rating is 66-21 (+43).
9.05.2008
Palin, Biden Less Popular than Cheney
@ 5:47 PM
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I'm not convinced that Americans (except the minority who call themselves Republicans these days) will vote for someone as inexperienced and controversial as Sarah Palin to be their backup President.
Dan Carlin today said the tickets should really be Obama/Palin vs. McCain/Biden.
Now THAT would be a race.
538.com is the best preventative cure for hyperventilation and hype.
Thanks for putting everything in context, guys.
Where is today's poll?
Prior to the convention, hardly anybody knew anything about her, Since a postive first impression will move many to favorable evaluations. I like the think of amount of information has as being similar to mass. If you know a lot about a candidate, it is much harder to change your opinions. If you know only a little, it doesn't take much to get you to change. But those who like Palin on low information are far more susceptible to changing their minds than those who have a lot.
Almost any real negative information would change her favorable/unfavorable in a big way. However, Joe Biden's many minusses (and his plusses) are old hat to most who follow the political news. Hardly anybody knows much about Palin. That leaves the opportunity for small bits of information to change opinions about her - in either direction.
Please, Nate, if you read this, have it so that when we go into comments it puts us directly into Blogger.com. As it is, you have to scroll down a hundred times or so and click on "Post a comment" to see most of the comments.
Thanks.
charlie,
You tragically underestimate Americans' stupidity. Remember, it took them more than 5 years to figure out that Bush is a terrible president. Imagine waking up every morning to have some guy just sock you in the gut, every morning. If it took you 5 years to figure out that you don't want to live anywhere near this guy, I would say you're a complete and total moron.
So based on early evidence, despite the intensity surrounding her, Palin is roughly a neutral vote-getter for McCain. He pick up a little more and may lose a little more. The right loves her, the left hates her, and moderates are split. Roughly.
On top of that, we have to consider how she changes the McCain narrative.
1) She's mavericky, but not necessarily in a good way. It was an unpredictable, impulsive pick of a right-wing extremist.
2) She undercuts his main critique of Obama: experience.
3) She partially undercuts his other main critique of Obama: Country First. A lot of people, even those that like her, view her as a political choice.
4) There's a lot of uncovered dirt surrounding Palin. Someone of it is groundless, and some of it is rather boring, but it adds up to covers like "US" magazine and punchlines in comedy shows.
I think the new meta-narrative will hurt McCain over the next two months.
Nate said:
"This is unusual for a VP nominee"
------------
Well, she just happens to be the most unusual VP nominee in recent memory.
Those unfavorables have to be a concern for the McCain team.
Given how unknown she is, it is likely that her favorables will go down... some or alot is the question.
If her unfavorables also go up once the electorate really gets to know her, it will be an even worse pick.
Palin's oldest child was born less than 8 months after she eloped. Again a pattern of unprotected pre-marital sex. A dangerous thing to do in the eighties and a dangerous thing to do today. Why is it that no one is talking about this, or her support for the Jews for Jesus hate monger who says of Islamic Terrorists - they are doing G-d's work in Israel, killing the non-believers?
While BO is reading Harry Potter to his children - Palin is trying to ban libraries from allowing children to read it - and yet...a deafening silence.
Palin will also lose votes for McCain -- and it's not clear that the losses won't outweigh the gains.
I liked it better when you analyzed the numbers after they came out, rather than make wild guesses ahead of time.
While BO is reading Harry Potter to his children...
...Palin would rather let them decide what to read for themselves, rather than government deciding for them?
I should add that she does help McCain's narrative in an important way:
1) Helps blunt the growing "McCain is out of touch" meme, that was probably going to be damaging after Phil Gramm's comments and especially the houses gaffe.
Grimm,
There are very few numbers to analyze.
If you only want to see Nate's views on the hard data, then wait for a slew of new state polls and check back then.
Alternatively, you can start your own site and just stay there.
Nate,
If time is keeping you from revamping the comments section, I'd certainly be glad to help.
you can get me here:
willwalker@mailinator.com
I do the html/php for this firm:
www.tatge.biz
Nicolas-
Give it time, there is no way the press is going to let someone this experienced, who has blamed them for her problems, and won't sit for an interview, survive.
They are being nice now, but they will kill her.
I think I've reached the point of Palin fatigue, for the time being anyhow. All we have to go on is a vitriolic speech at the RNC and all the rumors and scandals swirling out of Alaska. I think I know all I need to know about Sarah Palin. Until there's actually news that they've let her out of the super-secret underground compound - tucked away with Dick Cheney and Jimmy Hoffa - and she's talking to the press and answering questions, she's a non-issue.
State polling will pick up next week, it will be the most interesting polling week, for me, soince the primaries were wrapped up.
this is off topic a bit, so apologies. Here is David Frum, former Bush speech writer and leading conservative at National Review. He thinks Palin and McCain's idea of fighting the media and keeping her out of interviews matters a lot. He sees this as a bad omen. Worth the read.
http://frum.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2ZiYzllODgxNTY2YjMzNzQxZDQwYjI1Y2JhMTFmNjM=
Matthew H said...
Please, Nate, if you read this, have it so that when we go into comments it puts us directly into Blogger.com. As it is, you have to scroll down a hundred times or so and click on "Post a comment" to see most of the comments.
Thanks.
I second the motion. Please, do something. The comments take too much refreshing and scrolling to see new comments.
"Citizen Grim said...
While BO is reading Harry Potter to his children...
...Palin would rather let them decide what to read for themselves, rather than government deciding for them?"
Wrong. You have it backwards. Palin wants to be the government that decides what you can read to your children.
She is all about big government. Banning books. Earmarks. Spend, Spend, Spend. Run up the debt.
Maybe it's just because I live in West Seattle, but the only response I've heard from women who are independents around these parts (including my mother who voted Bush both times) was that there is now no way in hell they're voting for McCain given his VP choice. They see Palin as a slap in the face that suggests McCain thinks they are dumb enough to vote for her just because she's a woman.
The fact that she's anti-abortion even in the case of incest and rape plays REALLY poorly in Washington, though McCain never really had a chance here anyway.
Nate - great site, thank you this has to represent an incredible amount of work.
I see the Palin numbers and at first look they scare the hell out of me. How in the world could half the country feel favorably toward her. But, then I looked at Bush's approval ratings.
After nearly 8 years of the most f****d up administration since Buchanan 30% still have a favorable view of Bush. That suggests to me the baseline is 30%. Those republicans would find Daffy Duck or Attila the Hun favorable.
So, right now Palin has about 20% of the country fooled. When they start to learn something about her, and they will, those numbers will drop like a rock.
god willing, because I'd don't want to have to move to Mexico.
Charlie, and others:
I fervently agree that people underestimate the stupidity of the masses.
They are largely very poor at math, science, logic.
Why then would be expect them to think clearly when it comes to making important decisions?
Lest we forget, it is these very same people, tens of millions who routinely every week, watch the infomercials, BS direct response ad products and services, and buy them on impulse. They so very often give their money away. In the consumer marketing business we call them 'guppies'. These folks will buy anything including 18% interest rates on credit cards and pay the minium balance for years on end without a clue!!!!
These folks are the ones who take out negative amortization mortgage loans, 1 yr 1% and 2% ARM loans that then reset after 12 months to 6% and 7%, with 5% or even 0% down payment on home mortagages they cannot afford.
Let me guarantee everyone that IF the masses were smart, they would NEVER fall for these credit cards usury level rates and bogus mortgage products and TV infomercial products routinely.
YOU want proof that the masses are dumb. Ask me I worked this for the largest multinationals in the world. And I am NOT proud of it.
We routinely hire the best and smartest and make money of the dumbest people. Why? Because it works!
TRUST me the Republicans know this better than anyone on the face of this planet.
I give this a 2 in 3 chance of working again this time!
They got Bush in the White House and kept him for 8 years and he did their bidding. Believe me it would easier to get Palin there than Bush.
Give me $300 Million ad budget and I will do it. You will hate me, but I will succeed.
That's why McCain said in the new book by Bob Woodward, where he quotes McCain as saying "...everything is f-cking spin".
See the new Black on Black, new Detroit mayor Kilpatrick ad on Obama by a swift boat type org?
There will be ton of this coming out soon. NO way the Southern Republicans will let a black guy in the White House.
I suppose a lot of people here are too young to remember that Cheney was a well respected figure for his roles in previous Presidential administrations. Greenspan (who worked with him in several administrations) in his book talks about how different a persona he was during the Bush times.
Supposedly Sarah Palin is the second coming of Dan Quayle, or Geraldine Ferraro. Why not compare those favorability ratings?
You know I used to like this site for the good information provided even though there was occasionally a real left wing bias showed by the owner of this site.
But in the past few days it has really seeped into the actual information and numbers itself with analysis that either doesn't make sense or is just dripping with a refusal to look at reality which are the signs of narrow-minded bias.
This VP polling thing is a perfect example. Lieberman and Cheney were about as well known as any politician in America when they were chosen as VP so comparing their poll numbers with a completely unknown like Palin is not only unfair but disingenous and an example of head in the sand bias.
Her poll numbers are so favorable at this point because she has made a favorable impression upon voters and the media and biased sites like this piling on her every minute has created a backlash that is making people identify with her and like her.
76 million people watch the McCain/Palin speeches while 62 million watched Obama/Biden. Enthusiasm gap, indeed. Those are numbers one cannot spin.
Stick to numbers. It's what you do best. The commentary is getting old and provides nothing of any real value because it is soaked in bias, ignorance, and narrow-mindedness.
I think Biden and Palin are running worse than previous VP picks largely because of polarization.
Some of this polarization, of course, stems from Palin's speech and Biden's extensive time in the public eye.
As far as Palin's impact - I can find anecdotes for just about anything I want to prove as far as people loving or hating her on the ticket. We don't even know the extent of McCain's bounce or whether he's going to stabilize whatever it is. And we still don't know how Palin is going to wear in interviews (which she is going to be forced to give), or how any of the candidates is going to wear in debates.
BTW, anyone have any thoughts on the new Hotline tracker?
It is the staggering stupidity of the average American that has me scared right now. Sarah Palin should disqualify McCain. It really should.
Again - good stuff and a fairly balanced perspective.
I can count on you guys.
I also enjoy the insightful commentary and posted comments.
You all rock.
Thank you Mark you are dead on!
"Stick to numbers. It's what you do best. The commentary is getting old and provides nothing of any real value because it is soaked in bias, ignorance, and narrow-mindedness."
Hey all, it turns out the letter from Wasilla by Anne Kilkenny is authenticated. Here is a local view of Palin and her claims about tax cutting etc.
Here is the letter:
http://sites.google.com/site/letterfromwasilla/
Some sites confirming it:
http://www.daily-journal.com/archives/dj/display.php?id=426807
http://urbanlegends.about.com/b/
"Independent women in West Seattle." Pardon me a minute while I pick myself up off the floor from laughing.
The only kind of women you find in West Seattle are women who haven't shaved their chins yet today and who are still retrieving their burning bras from the wastebasket.
The level of "head in the sandedness" found in blogs like this is truly breathtaking.
This is not a country where things are decided in places like Seattle or San Francisco. We are a nation of over 100,000 communities of people with populations of under 10,000 people.
Some of you should come out of your latte enclaves of people who are so out of touch with common Americans that they cannot see why people are attracted to candidates like Sarah Palin.
FWIW, Intrade has now given back half of the drop in the price on Obama to win. If the polls are the same in a couple of says, the price on Obama to win jumps. The market is hedging against a large jump in McCain support. If it doesn't appear that constraint will be heavily discounted.
Mark, we just don't have a lot of numbers to talk about right now. State polling has gone virtually dead for the last two weeks, which means we're flying half-blind on national polls. Nate's daily tracker breakdown this morning was great. Hope he'll fold the new Hotline tracker into the model. Some more detailed analysis of the relationships between polls and markets would be fascinating too.
"...Palin would rather let them decide what to read for themselves, rather than government deciding for them?"
Ooooh, swing and a miss. Palin wants the government to tell us what NOT to read. Like Harry Potter. Obama doesn't care what we read. That was a ridiculous extrapolation on a witty anecdote. That conservatives want the government off our backs is a myth.
Commentary IS opinion after all. Not everything said can be just numbers. That'd be boring as hell.
Nothing wrong about having commentary and there will never be complete agreement about anything like politics - such is life.
IMHO
I liked it better when you analyzed the numbers after they came out, rather than make wild guesses ahead of time.
I like it better when he gathers numbers in the context of presenting an assertion.
Just being a clearinghouse and an f(x) of numeric data was interesting enough during the primaries when there was a large pool of contenders, but now the field is narrow and there is plenty of room for critical analysis rather than just statistical.
The staggering stupidity of some 18 million people brought us Barack Obama a man with less than 18 months in the US Senate before he started running for president.
That scares me a lot more than Sarah Palin.
He is completely clueless and couldn't understand average Americans from his $2m ill-gotten mansion in Hyde Park.
More people go to small colleges than attend Harvard or Yale. Few Americans wear $1300 dresses like Michelle Obama.
No candidate for president has ever been so grandiose as to present himself as the Messiah in a post-Greek stadium.
Talk to me about who is out of touch and who average Americans can relate to.
Sarah Palin is probably the most "normal" person in the last 50 years to be on a presidential ticket.
dpldust, you keep asking why nobody cares that Palin was pregnant when she got married. Clearly this contradiction bothers you, so I'll explain.
Sane people don't care because... well, why the hell should they? I think you're really wondering why her base is not troubled by this little factoid.
It so happens I'm doing an anthropological field study of the Fervent Freepers. I live in ttheir midst and watch them. (I do it so you won't have to...)
They don't care that Bristol is a pregnant teen, or that Mommy was also a pregant teen. The reason they don't care is because this situation is endemic in Freeper culture... (because sex happens to all of us) but they are averse to most forms of birth control, which they quaintly refer to as "abortifacients."
Provided you "marry the father" then teen pregnancy is termed "a blessing."
If there's anything else about wingnut culture that puzzles you, I'll be happy to delve into my copious notes and try to help.
Wow, Citizen Grim just came right out and made two of the dumbest comments I've ever seen (not just here, but anywhere!)
Can Sarah Palin Think?
http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=45&ArticleName=Can+Sarah+Palin+Think%3f
One's initial response to this question is: of course; but will the country blindly accept the default position of intelligence to a potential President, especially after the current President's intelligence. I am straight up questioning Sarah Palin's competence. In her eight days on the national stage she has demonstrated no capability for logical thought. At her introduction last Friday (8/29) she regurgitated a speech written by somebody else. The following weekend in Pennsylvania she essentially repeated the same speech. Palin's third and most recent public appearance was her acceptance speech at the RNC in St. Paul. Here she gave yet another speech written by somebody else, but this time it was also written for somebody else. The McCain campaign has also been insistent on eliminating any of her interaction with the media. Palin has been the VP candidate for a week and has herself contributed nothing of substance to her national introduction...
http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=45&ArticleName=Can+Sarah+Palin+Think%3f
I think all this tells us is that people on both sides are a lot more involved this year. Due to the historic-ness of it all, everyone is just being more over-dramatic than in the few election years prior to this.
Something to piss everyone off in this post.
Mark/BJB, Nate is a former Kossack (Poblano.) He has been straight up about his bias. If you don't like the pieces without numbers, don't read them. I don't bother reading the text at electionprojection.com, and I don't complain about it.
Democrats bitching about Palin: You should really, really make sure you read Krugman's article in the NYT today about elitism. Complaining about how everyone must be "stupid" to have a preliminary, positive view of Palin rather than just discussing the issues around her candidacy (don't do that either here!) just plays into the "coastal elitist" meme. Sigh.
Nate and Sean, this is a great site. I appreciate all the work. The numbers are fascinating. I enjoy your opinions. Some of them surprise me.
I also like the comments. I like that there are conservatives, repubs, dems, liberals, indies, whatever, posting here.
Palin is old news. She has served her purpose. Her attack speech has boosted Obama's support and money. She overshadowed the Republican Convention. She cuts at McCain's reform and experience message. Her nomination startled the media and caused a rift between the Republicans and the media.
Obama's supporters should be focusing on McCain. Palin should only be mentioned in conjunction with him or to keep the media and McCain's campaign separate. McCain likes talking reform but included a master of earmarks on his ticket. McCain thinks Palin has the experience so he has no grounds to attack Barack’s experience. McCain’s rash judgment was shown in picking Palin. That is not the only reason to not pick McCain (unable to articulate any change in policies, out of touch with middle class struggles, unable to stand up to the right-wing of his party).
Yes, because we want the most powerful person in the world to be normal. Average. Mediocre.
Just like when I have surgery, or hire a lawyer, and have someone handle my finances, I want someone just like me.
If only Barack went to San Bernardino State instead of Columbia, he would be a president. If only Obama stomped his education after he received his B.A. That law degree from Harvard really hurts his chances at being a good president. And for fuck's sake, when he started teaching Constitutional Law at Chicago University, he ruined any chance he had. I want my President to know as much about the Constitution as the average American...nothing.
I think Palin is totally overblown.
She will not "win it" nor would she be able to "lose it" IMO.
The McCain ticket will lose on the issues, winning on their personalities is a crap shoot - and doesn't favor the players. IYKWIM
The essential difference between Palin and Biden at this point is that Palin has undergone far rougher treatment than Biden.
How much did we hear about Biden's frequent off-colour remarks? Or his plagiarism? etc.. Sure there were a few media reports but nothing serious.
Palin was thrashed viciously. Her daughter became a target when it was revealed that she was pregnant before being married. Andrew Sullivan propagated the rumour (started by DKos) that Palin pretended to carry Trig when it was really her daughter's son. Newspapers have run stories about rumours of unfaithfulness, etc.. Reporters have wondered on air if she's a bad mother. Democratic strategists have tried to link her to Nazi sympathizers (Morning Joe). And every word her pastor has ever said is being scrutinized for any possible deviations, even words that were said AFTER she left the church(!). (Something about Kerry supporters might not going to heaven.. or something)
My point is this, Biden has nice numbers considering that no one has really gone at him. Palin has nice numbers despite (because of?) massive media attacks on her character.
To the people who constantly piss and moan about bias in Nate and Sean posts, try reading the god damned FAQ. It clearly states that they are Obama supports. So stop acting all offended and surprised that the commentary from them would be somewhat left-leaning. It's not as partisan as kos, redstate, lgf or whatever else.
Get over yourselves. The fundamentals of the math are strong. Picking on the political leanings of the people doing the math is just an attempt to discredit it because you can't tolerate or understand why your guy is so far in the hole.
Any good actress could give a good performance like Palindrone when reading from a teleprompter. It was the scripted speech. Lets see how she does when asked questions by the press on foreign policy and find out her knowledge of the Balkans, Middle East, Iraq, Iran, Northern Ireland etc.
This topic is total BS
So many paragraghs to spin numbers to say something that they do not.
The "Unfavorable" question about Sarah Palin is not really the questgion being answered.
Let's be real...
The question really is:
"How afraid are you that Sarah Palin will make Barrack Obama lose the election?"
"We are a nation of over 100,000 communities of people with populations of under 10,000 people."
Wow, I never knew the USA had over a billion people...
"So stop acting all offended and surprised that the commentary from them would be somewhat left-leaning."
Gaming the ref doesn't change the numbers. Everybody has "leanings" I love the balance I read here.
Yes, because we want the most powerful person in the world to be normal. Average. Mediocre.
Just like when I have surgery, or hire a lawyer, and have someone handle my finances, I want someone just like me.
If only Barack went to San Bernardino State instead of Columbia, he would be a president. If only Obama stomped his education after he received his B.A. That law degree from Harvard really hurts his chances at being a good president. And for fuck's sake, when he started teaching Constitutional Law at Chicago University, he ruined any chance he had. I want my President to know as much about the Constitution as the average American...nothing.
You're right. I want a president who drives a cab at night to make ends meet. A sleep deprived president living paycheck to paycheck is a breath of fresh air.
It looks like the ABC News Poll is the problem. it depresses Palin's avrerage net favorability number while inflating Bidens.
"Palin's oldest child was born less than 8 months after she eloped. Again a pattern of unprotected pre-marital sex. A dangerous thing to do in the eighties and a dangerous thing to do today. Why is it that no one is talking about this, or her support for the Jews for Jesus hate monger who says of Islamic Terrorists - they are doing G-d's work in Israel, killing the non-believers?"
To those with a working knowledge of psychology, Palin has "sociopath" written all over her. Just like Bush.
It's very difficult to convince a person--even a neutral observer--that someone is a sociopath. Probably not worth pursuing.
But you're right. This woman has a lot in her background that raises question marks about her psychological fitness, as much as anything else.
Does anyone know gender breakdown on how she is polling favorable/unfavorable and ready to lead? At one point she was doing much better with men than women. Is that still the case?
McCain made a huge grab for the independents last night and continued with it today.
He has declared himself independent of party. He condemned his own party at its Convention and he continued today blaming BOTH PARTIES for the mess in Washington.
I think that humility and the reality of his outsider status could start to hum with real independents. Many of whom I suspect are to some degree conservative, but would never identify with the Katina Vandenheuvals or Rachel Madows or Keith Olbermanns. At best they are Chris Matthews and Gloria Borger types.
I wonder how they will see this new McCain.
He and his reformer, insurgent Alaskan running mate.
If you polled on the question: Who is more independent of party and listed the four candidates at the top of the ticket, is there any doubt of the order of finish? Or the space between number one and number three?
For a good chuckle - check out MarcCooper.com!
Mark . . . . not worth the time.
COPY PASTE COPY PASTE COPY PASTE
Pete Kent: "He has declared himself independent of party."
And then gave out a laundry list of standard GOP policy prescriptions.
Well done!
Amazing how the comment section on this site has grown... I think it is excellent to read what Nate and others think. I would enjoy an easier to use comment form... I come back here like an addict waiting for news....... Scary stuff to see people defending Palin in the matter that they do ... for letting someone select their own reading material. We are just being funny right? this woman is NOT about Choice. I see that her EBay plane selling story now has holes in it as well. Save my country! Obama Biden 08
Wow... it just occurred to me... can you IMAGINE the ratings for teh Palin-Biden debate? Especially if they keep her under wraps until then?
They could put it on pay-per-view and get rid of the national debt.
"How afraid are you that Sarah Palin will make Barrack Obama lose the election?"
If the election were this Tuesday, very.
Alas, it isn't. Just as in astronomy, the brightest burning stars spend their fuel the fastest.
Jen,
From what i have seen palin polls about ten points better with men.
Could it be the character assasination designed as national concern of trolls like Baz744 that is dragging her down?
I have a question Who has the bigger ego?
In a 50-minute speech, McCain used the word "I," or variations like "me" or "my" or "myself," more than 200 times.
That's about twice as many references to personal self-greatness as Obama used in Denver.
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/john-farrell/2008/9/5/mccain-speech-i-me-mine.html
Here are some numbers to talk about:
http://moremonmouthmusings.blogspot.com/2008/09/alaskans-parlin-qualified.html
Governor Sarah Palin remains extremely well regarded in Alaska.
"· Her job approval rating is astoundingly high with an 86% overall approval rating and 63% strongly approving of her job performance. Independents approve by a margin of 86% - 10% and there is absolutely no gender gap. 97% of Republicans approve of the job she is doing as do 75% of Democrats. She receives high job approval ratings across all regions of Alaska.
The Obama strategy of targeting and attempting to win Alaska is a fantasy. The McCain-Palin ticket holds a commanding ballot advantage over Obama-Biden, winning 57% - 33%.
· Independent voters cast their ballots for McCain-Palin, 50%-37%. Ticket-splitters vote for McCain-Palin, 48%-33%. Men vote for McCain-Palin 58%-30% with women voting for the GOP ticket 55%-35%.
· McCain-Palin draws 25% of Democrats and lead with those placing their emphasis on energy/gas issues, 74%-18%.
Alaskans view her as being just as qualified in terms of her background and experience as Barack Obama.
· 59% of Alaska voters say she is AS or MORE qualified as Barack Obama. 30% state she is more qualified than Obama, 31% that she is less qualified and 29% that she is just as qualified as the Democratic nominee.
· There is no gender gap on this result.
· This lead extends to Independents. Among Independents, 55% say she is AS or MORE qualified as Obama (20% of say she is more qualified, 35% that she is less qualified and 35% that she is just as qualified as Obama).
Alaskans have rallied behind Governor Palin and are proud of her choice as the Vice-Presidential nominee.
· By an overall margin of 56% - 15%, respondents report being more likely to vote for McCain as a result of Sarah Palin’s selection to be his running mate. Again, there is no gender gap on this measurement, Independents report being more likely to vote for McCain with Palin as his running mate by a margin of 55% - 16%.
· Intensity is quite strong with 44% much more likely to vote for McCain and 11% less likely."
Democrats bitching about Palin: You should really, really make sure you read Krugman's article in the NYT today about elitism. Complaining about how everyone must be "stupid" to have a preliminary, positive view of Palin rather than just discussing the issues around her candidacy (don't do that either here!) just plays into the "coastal elitist" meme. Sigh.
I don't see what's wrong with having a positive view of Palin. She seems nice enough, and I'd much rather spend the night with her than with Obama, Biden, or McCain, if you know what I mean.
I also don't see what's wrong with Palin making it more likely to vote for McCain, if her positions match yours. For example, it was very unclear what McCain really planned to do about abortion or censorship. If those are important to you, and you agree with Palin, why wouldn't you vote for McCain?
What I consider monumentally stupid is "she seems nice...SO I'm going to vote for her". We've seen lots of surveys saying that people view her positively, and we see people who are now more likely to vote for McCain, but there's no evidence of causation here. We've had one anecdotal case here of somebody doing that, but that's not exactly a large chunk of people.
It's more that Lefties are afraid that because people find her likable, that they'll vote for that ticket. But I'm looking at the polls. I don't see any evidence of this. The Gallup survey today wouldn't have looked out of place in August. Not sure why people are so worked up.
Maybe people are smarter than the Lefties are giving them credit for.
In my unexpert opinion, I'd say that Palin and Biden are behind (and in front of, at the same time) past VP selections because America is extremely divided this year. It seems like it is every year, and it was in 2004, but this year especially. More people this year than in the past have chosen a side already and don't view candidates objectively. They see that Palin is a Republican and Biden is a Democrat, so they favor them according to their own affiliation. A conservative voter is going to automatically favor any Republican they put up and disfavor the Democrat, and vice versa for liberal voters. This should lead to slightly higher favorabilities and much higher unfavorabilities at the same time. There are, of course, many independents that aren't as strongly affiliated who might favor or disfavor candidates for less politically-charged reasons, and that would explain why both candidates aren't 50-50. That's my take anyway. As I said in the first sentence, I'm not an expert in any way, and I certainly know less than Nate and many of you.
Many voters may be low-info., but they are not low enough to buy into "I am not republican" by McCain while he supports Bush's taxcuts. McCain can say he is no Republican until he is blue in the face and it isn't going to work if his policies are identical to Bush.
Folks, this is Nate's site.
If YOU do not like it or agree with the way he does things, then feel free to say so, but HE does not have to change anything HE does.
It's his site. You are here for free. If you don't like it, go create your own.
Perhaps you don't have what it takes to do that??
Diogo:
Well, over 100,000 communities with under 10,000 people doesn't add up to a billion people. Because of course, "under 10,000" could be as few as ten people.
Although, I do think this figure was kind of pulled out of nowhere. Especially when you consider that many of those "small communities" mostly cling to their rural via contrived cultural chauvinism and maybe a yearly 'harvest festival' or the like. At least 90% of Americans live a life that is basically urban.
"We are a nation of over 100,000 communities of people with populations of under 10,000 people."
Wow, I never knew the USA had over a billion people...
Diogo, you dumbass. In no way does that imply that. It's 100,000 communities of people with populations UNDER 10,000 people. That means there are a lot with 400, 500, 800, what have you. Your smartass comment was off the mark.
Mark: "Her poll numbers are so favorable at this point because she has made a favorable impression upon voters and the media".
I doubt that her speech is already fully reflected in the figures, at least not for the Hotline poll, which was taken from Sept. 2-4. There is, by the way, another source for favorability ratings, namely the latest YouGov poll (Sept. 1-3), which puts her favorability at 45% (Biden 44%, no unfavorable ratings. The YouGov poll shows 87% of McCain voters favourable for Palin, compared to 12% Obama voters and 27% undecided (Biden has 37% favorabality among undecideds). I think, its still too early for any final judgement on Palin's appeal to voters.
http://media.economist.com/media//econ01sep2008_tabs.pdf
[Note on the YouGov poll: The figures for Hispanics look strange - they have 39% Obama, 43% McCain, which is in stark contrast to most other recent polls, e.g. the Gallup weekly aggregates, or the recent SUSA polls on CD level. I suppose they have been oversampling Cuban Americans in Florida, which tend to lean strongly Republican.]
Frank from Germany
I am surprised! I actually agree with something that DarienCrow said. He said that the numbers dont aay anything. He's right. The numbers so far in this thread are just noise. Just like Darian Crow.
Nope had to feed the troll:
He is completely clueless and couldn't understand average Americans from his $2m ill-gotten mansion in Hyde Park.
Your Guy: 9 houses net worth $100 million plus
More people go to small colleges than attend Harvard or Yale. Few Americans wear $1300 dresses like Michelle Obama.
Mrs McCain - $300,000 outfit - down to $100,000 last night though.
No candidate for president has ever been so grandiose as to present himself as the Messiah in a post-Greek stadium.
Your guy purports himself as president and calls us all Georgians on our behalf.
Talk to me about who is out of touch and who average Americans can relate to.
YOU
Sarah Palin is probably the most "normal" person in the last 50 years to be on a presidential ticket.
Too easy to touch.
There are just under 20,000 incorporated places (cities, towns, villages, boroughs) in the United States.
Hey Pete, I had a gut feeling you'd be wrong so I made sure to take note of this comment you made last night:
PeteKent said...
But let not your hearts be too troubled: there is still the disappointment of Friday's Ras Tracker to deal with.
Look at it this way, after Rasmusen at 9:30AM, you will hardly feel the shock of the afternoon Gallup.
September 4, 2008 7:34 PM
So, now we know: Obama still leads by 2% in Rasmussen and 4% in Gallup. Care to re-spin the lack of shocking numbers that we've seen today? Or is that not in the daily talking points briefing?
"At least 90% of Americans live a life that is basically urban"
Nope. I'd have to disagree wholeheartedly unless you can prove otherwise. Maybe you need to get your snobby ass out of the big city and see what's actually going on in rural America and then check back in with us.
I do love the way people get in a huff over Nate's "bias", fling their boa angrily over their shoulder and stalk away, vowing never to reurn.
And then they are instantly replaced by a dozen newcomers.
Deal with it, guys. Nate's a superstar. He needs to get himself a bigger place just to accomodate the regulars.
PETE: appreciate the shorter snappier posts today. I'm almost starting to like you again.
I used to like this site, but it's clear you're in the tank for Obama. You only write pro-Obama articles, and present biased analysis, excluding all data that you don't agree with. This offends me, so I wanted to post my opinion here, on this board, where fans of your site can see my disgust.
How can you support these limo-driving, latte sipping, country-club liberals, the Obamas? They want nothing more than to bring Hollywood elitism to power, and instill us with their San Francisco values.
Sarah Palin will win the presidency for the Republicans. She has already withstood everything the libs have thrown at her, including terrorizing her infant son who has down's syndrome. When she comes to power, the words 'Under God' will remain in the Pledge, as the forefathers had intended! Sarah Palin is going to become what Hillary wishes she was, but never will be. Sarah Palin is an American Hero.
Also, John McCain.
In summary, Nate, you are a wanker.
Nicholas,
The meme is going to take hold that the Maverick is back and Sarah Palin reinvigorated him and reminded him of his roots that go all the way to that dank cell in Hanoi. Country first and now we know why.
John McCain benefits from a seamless narrative.
Sarah Palin has already revealed more about her than we know about our neighbors. She will reveal yet more.
The meme is taking hold that she is being persecuted by the media. The Networks are commencing their naval gazing over it and will exonerate themselves (CNN already has), but it will take hold that they have been unfair to Palin.
Then she will calmly explain that she never pressured the Supt and that her ex-BIL, the trooper Wooten was a monster and then she will snarl like a pit bull and ten million dicks will go up and all will be forgiven.
Sarah Palin will turn out to be a wonderful asset because we want to like her and because she represents what we long for: CHANGE AND REFORM
Wow! bjb1968,
Oh NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Alaska is out of reach now.
We're doooooooooooooooommmmmmmmmedddddddddddddd
xchjshdkufialsdfyk
What someone should do is make a list of all the factors that WILL NOT decide this election. Although it makes a great story, I think that Sarah Palin's children or Biden's plagiarized speech are not going to be what is on people's minds when voting. Neither, for that matter, are Tony Rezko or the Keating 5. Even major policy positions aren't going to do it.
I think the only thing that people are going to vote on is their overall economic health, and whether they think a candidate can empathize and sympathize with them.
Shap - do you know how silly you sound? My god, spin is one thing, but making yourself sound uneducated and living in a bubble is a whole nother level.
Mark -
Thank you for your disgusting attacks on Barack Obama. You are obviously suffer from 'conservatitis', or - in layman's terms - idiocy.
How dare you criticize people who enjoy city life? Who are you to condescend to them? What makes you think you're so high above urbanites that you would presume to tell them how to live?
You are an idiot, sir. And Cindy McCain's dress was $300,000. Maybe you simple rural folk think that's a normal price to pay, but we city slickers find it a bit extravagant.
Go fuck yourself.
bjb said
Here are some numbers to talk about:
http://moremonmouthmusings.blogspot.com/2008/09/alaskans-parlin-qualified.html
Governor Sarah Palin remains extremely well regarded in Alaska.
"· Her job approval rating is astoundingly high with an 86% overall approval rating and 63% strongly approving of her job performance. Independents approve by a margin of 86% - 10% and there is absolutely no gender gap. 97% of Republicans approve of the job she is doing as do 75% of Democrats. She receives high job approval ratings across all regions of Alaska.
The Obama strategy of targeting and attempting to win Alaska is a fantasy. The McCain-Palin ticket holds a commanding ballot advantage over Obama-Biden, winning 57% - 33%.
· Independent voters cast their ballots for McCain-Palin, 50%-37%. Ticket-splitters vote for McCain-Palin, 48%-33%. Men vote for McCain-Palin 58%-30% with women voting for the GOP ticket 55%-35%.
· McCain-Palin draws 25% of Democrats and lead with those placing their emphasis on energy/gas issues, 74%-18%.
Alaskans view her as being just as qualified in terms of her background and experience as Barack Obama.
· 59% of Alaska voters say she is AS or MORE qualified as Barack Obama. 30% state she is more qualified than Obama, 31% that she is less qualified and 29% that she is just as qualified as the Democratic nominee.
· There is no gender gap on this result.
· This lead extends to Independents. Among Independents, 55% say she is AS or MORE qualified as Obama (20% of say she is more qualified, 35% that she is less qualified and 35% that she is just as qualified as Obama).
Alaskans have rallied behind Governor Palin and are proud of her choice as the Vice-Presidential nominee.
· By an overall margin of 56% - 15%, respondents report being more likely to vote for McCain as a result of Sarah Palin’s selection to be his running mate. Again, there is no gender gap on this measurement, Independents report being more likely to vote for McCain with Palin as his running mate by a margin of 55% - 16%.
· Intensity is quite strong with 44% much more likely to vote for McCain and 11% less likely."
You are using a poll that was paid for and on the behalf of McCain for president as a source how funny.
Folks, this is all going to get very very ugly and fast from here on out.
The Repub 527 groups will win this thing but doing what they do best.
They will scare 3-5 percentage points off of the white people from voting for Obama. They will work the black thing every which way they can.
It will be indirect but they will get the noose out and hang Obama via a slow political death on TV.
I guarantee it!
No way the southern white men are going to allow an African American occupy the White House in 2008.
The worst in us and our country is getting ready to shine on us and the world, as they watch!
Spoken as a marketing guy who knows how to shape value propositions and sell them, adroitly, deftly and successfully.
"If you polled on the question: Who is more independent of party"
He has no reason to. He stands there proudly and says, "I am a democratic and get these republican fucks outta here."
Note: I may be paraphrasing a little.
Beowulf - GOTCHA!
Alaska being out of reach doesn't doom you. Alaska was never in your reach.
What dooms you is that Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado are now out of reach.
It's spelled: D...O...O...M...E...D
Maybe not completely on point, but I wrote this in a post today on CNN.com re the "Troopergate" report deadline being moved up.....:
As an Obama supporter, I am a bit concerned that this ["Troopergate"] is a bit of a trap. One of two things will happen: (a) the report will exonerate Palin or give the faintest slap on the wrist; or (b) the report will find serious malfeasance by Palin, but the GOP will be able to make it go away politically, by spinning it as follows:
The ex-brother-in-law will be painted as a complete scuzzball (from what I've seen and read, may not be too hard, given the whole admitted tasering of the stepson, and the serial failed marriages, etc.), so–technicalities of civil service law aside–why should we blame Palin for doing the "right" thing and seeking his termination; while it may have "broken the rules" to intervene personally, she just happened to have personal knowledge of this guy, and was motivated by love of her dear sister and parents to be sure this guy got his.
So, whizz-bang, all of a sudden this is a story of a tough, but loving, sister and daughter just trying to do what is "really" right, even if it "bent" some rules. In the end, only "elitists" and hard-core union reps will feel what she did was truly "wrong."
Twisted, but is that any less twisted than what the GOP does routinely?
quantman - you are right about what Republicans will do I am sure...they already pulled out the "Uppity" comment...but, they were caught doing it...it could backfire if they keep it up.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8eMUng8c9fRJPvGHYOeolqH-uzwD930N50G0
I ask for help from the statisticians. This is about the previous thread.
From a good comment made by one of you math guys, I gathered that Nate's method may well be to assume that if we make n-day jumps and sum up the results, the various summations should be about equal (wrong for n=7 for vaguely understood reasons, fortunately 7 is prime). We can take a small n and be quite safe, and this brings us to enough equations to "solve" the problem.
But this is a statistical approximation: we have so many inequalities and we choose a solution that "best" solves all of them simultaneously.
How do we defne "best"? By Least Squares over the rounding error? why is this justified? Why should we think that there should be small rounding error? Should we not assume the rounding error to be on average .25? Or is "best" solution the one with Least Squares from .25 rounding error? Is this really a convincing way of picking the best result?
Perhaps you get one solution with best fit to .25, a fairly distinct one for best fit to .26? - In other words, is there not a certain chaos in here so that small differences in what we best-fit for result in completely different solutions?
@bjb1968
You undercut your point when you use polls like this.
"American Viewpoint conducted 400 interviews with registered voters in Alaska on the evening of September 2, 2008 on behalf of McCain for President."
Pete Kent: "He has declared himself independent of party." (Thanks for reading Pete Kent and finding this Nicholas.)
This statement is just absurd. McCain has folded to the right-wingers. He likes the Bush economic plan, health plan, foreign policy and the rest of the sink. To top it off he gave up on his preferred choice (Lieberman and Ridge) both much scarier opponents and chooses a darling for the right-wing. Winning an election is more important than ideals for McCain.
Baz744 mused:
"...Palin has 'sociopath' written all over her."
+1. I'm happy to say I distrusted her completely within the first 30 seconds of her voice molesting my ears.
What dooms you is that Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado are now out of reach.
That's not true, Darien. McCain could easily take Virginia.
Still looking for that silver bullet against Palin I see. She must really drive you guys nuts. Why?
WOW -
You mean Palin b rings AK and its 3 EV! Wow, that is completely irrelevant to the race for President. Thanks for posting.
When she comes to power, the words 'Under God' will remain in the Pledge, as the forefathers had intended!
Yer funny.
For those of you who don't get the joke, reference
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pledge_of_Allegiance
VC-
She needs to not bring independents, now that we know I very much doubt she will. I agree, lets move on.
I actually think Obama had an outside shot in AK until Palin. They seemed to like him for some reason or another (or at least more than most Democrats).
Awww, I think I scared PeteKent away. :(
I don't think Nate should be allowed to eat, sleep, or use the bathroom, because these activities interfere with him posting new raw numbers for us to analyze.
I would also like the site to incorporate a section on necromancy: raw chicken entrails and canine knucklebones are excellent means of foretelling elections results.
I also want a metric conversion chart, a section on vegetarian recipes and an index of show tunes.
filistro said - "Nate's a superstar"
Nope, he's pretty much a fuckstick. Well, he might be a "superstar" to about 200 liberal goons who call themselves political junkies. To the rest of the world, he doesn't exist.
Oh, and one appearance on Olbermann doesn't make you a superstar. It makes you a joke.
I know Shap... McCain will easily take Virginia.
That's why Obama is...
DOOMED!
Nate-
Is the Alsaka poll you are using done by the McCain campaign? I kinda doubt this would have slipped past you, but...
According to wikipedia the US was 80.8% urbanized in 2005, and that is probably a bit high today. Of course, since the figure includes suburbs, there are some towns of less than 10,000 within the definition or "urbanized," but being s suburb of a large city generally means urban attitudes. Where I grew up still isn't incorporated, but it's definitely part of a large SMSA and the attitudes there are definitely urban.
VC:
It's not personal. It's just that her views are immoral, disgusting, and unpatriotic. If you're OK with government telling you what you can read and making your medical decisions for you, that's your business. I personally prefer freedom to Palin's twisted big-brother conservatism.
"Still looking for that silver bullet against Palin I see. She must really drive you guys nuts. Why?"
Honestly, she really does drive me nuts. Not so much that I fear her, although I do agree that there is potential she will benefit McCain, but that she represents everything I hate about the modern Republican party. She's divisive, anti-intellectual, mean-spirited, and completely void of ideas. She's the epitome of political gimmickry that the Rovian GOP has as its paradigm.
I think with Palin it is not really about the issues but who she is and what she represents.
Once the public realizes that the media has manipulated what they are thinking and if you want to get to know her you have to stay away from the vipers of the NYTs, CNN and MSNBC. Stick to Fox News and RCP. Certainly do not get your news here. We have turned into a clearinghouse of all the worse innuendo and false scandal. Some here have crossed the line and they are to be shunned.
Palin is going to seem like that suburban neighbor that you want at your party. Her husband too. Bring the kids and the baby daddy. It’s so normal.
It’s winning.
At 8 and 8 on Sat and Sun Fox news will do na hour bio on her. Worth watching. Careful: Mets-Phils on ESPN Sunday night.
On the Polls, they have moved in the right direction.
I think given the numbers, McCain will get a nice bounce from his Convention speech. More importantly, he has this whole NEW MAVERICK INDEPENDENT OF PARTY GUY thing going on that things should continue for the GOP.
I think he might even take NV and OH, but McCAin still loses with that scenario.
McCains problem is the entire fundamentals of the race would need to change for him to win. I kinds doubt they will, Palin is inexperienced and McCain speech was not so good.
"If you're OK with government telling you what you can read and making your medical decisions for you"
Jeeze that's hyperbole. She never banned any books, or had any interest in doing so. Some idiot constituent asked her if books COULD be banned, she asked the librarian, the librarian said "um, you can't ban books" and that was it.
Yeah, I know the ideal situation is this:
Constituent: How do you ban Harry Potter?
Mayor: You can't.
Hey, did you know Barack Obama secretly visited Pakistan? It's true! I heard it on the internets!
VC Obama has appeal in Alaska because it is one of the youngest states. If im correct the average age is 37.2 years old.
It also has one of the Highest High Grad pop with over 95% having there diploma.
FOX is doing a bio on Palin? They are complete shills. That is unbelieveable.
Sam Watts, if this site is so insignificant what the hell are you doing here? I mean, other than being a jackass.
Not that trolls like you would care or want to learn, but Nate has been on far more shows than Olbermann's, and this site is linked on RasmussenReports, which is a Republican site. (Although despite what people her think, he does his numbers straight. Admittedly, what he polls about and how he discusses things are not.)
"That's why Obama is...
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!"
fixed
Why is MSNBC shilling for Palin right now? And Buchanan is dominating the talking heads.
David Gregory should be shot.
What surprises me is that nobody (even here) is discussing one of the main impacts of the Palin pick.
For those who are not Republican or McCain believers already (i.e., the people McCain has to win over), the nomination (both the the nominee and the apparently rather knee-jerk decision make) make McCain a *more* risky choice.
Dems have been trying to play that narrative for a long time, but with questionable success. The Republicans have been working it well for quite some time, in the other direction.
The Palin nomination sort of hands it to the Dems. But I'm not hearing them play that tune consistently. Or...I'm not hearing it yet?
Yup, Obama is doomed, he is ahead in so many states right now he can hardly lose.
www.electoral-vote.com
www.pollster.com
In my opinion, Palin will be largely irrelevant in the final analysis - unless she flops in the debates or something new and really negative in uncovered.
She has revved up the base and will raise lots of money for the Party.
In the end, this will be between a white guy and a black guy and the black guy will lose.
This is not what I want, this is not what is right, this is not fair, this is not nice, but I believe this IS what WILL happen.
After all, this is America.
Once the older generation (say 15-20 years now), has moved on, I believe Obama or an Obama type will surely win.
For now the brutal but very very smart Southern white men, who control the money and the ad game, will win. They know how!
judas_priest,
Back off just a tad there, hoss. I was just trying to tone down the filly who was jizzing on herself saying Nate was a "superstar."
That was going a bit far for me, thanks.
Sam Watts is right.
Other than the big east coast cites, you leave any other city of even a couple million in the US and drive 15 minutes and you are in the country.
Americans live and worship in small towns. They join PTAs in those towns. Stuff happens where they live. Sarah and Todd seem like their freinds.
It is that sense of identity that can build for palin and her ticket and it can continue to pull voters away from Obama.
Enough of them to win.
America is an urban nation. There are just a lot of suburbanites who like to think they live in the country, but don't.
Nate,
I can't understand why you and many other members of the press keep calling Palin "charming" or "likeable". While I can't argue that she can give quite a barnburner of a speech, charm is the last thing that I saw Wed night. I saw a crass, classless barracuda who will say and do anything to gain power.
You're playing into the new MSM narrative by humanizing as such
Steve-
We have discussed that. I am just not sure what our talking to each other about it matters, it all depends on how independents see this pick.
What dooms you is that Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado are now out of reach.
That's not true, Darien. McCain could easily take Virginia
AND Ohio and Florida but we would like to keep Colorado and Nevada in those cases.
Actually I'm looking forward to the next Florida poll. That is going to make a lot of people say, "What?" (I'll leave your bias up to the interpretation of that)
Shap has captured only part of the appeal of Palin. The rest comes from the fact that she is like those she must appeal to, regular people.
Virginia,
Which goes to the point that those people haev a more "rural" mindset, no?
the msm completely sucks, even MSNBC is shilling for Palin. On all fronts. Even Chris Matthews.
I am becoming astounded at my fellow Americans, puzzled, confused...
Wrong. You have it backwards. Palin wants to be the government that decides what you can read to your children.
And Grimm knows it because he had to go out of his way to snip the quote to leave out the part about Palin trying to ban books.
It's not just that right wingers are ignorant, dumb, selfish ... but that they are such transparently dishonest assholes.
Palin is not going to bomb when she starts answering questions from the press. If she ever does. She won't answer the questions asked.
She is being prepped now with talking points and how to not answer the questions while spouting their propaganda.
"Which goes to the point that those people haev a more "rural" mindset, no?"
You can say they worship the idea, but don't want to actually live there. This is why people pay to visit Lancaster, PA for example. Several books were written on this subject.
Go to the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Even in such a huge "metro" the mentality is far more rural by a lot of people living there or close by.
Unless you are in NYC, Boston, San Fran, and a few others, you are rural.
Matthew I disagee to this extent: No one will care what Biden has done. He is a nullity.
He might have mattered if Pawlenty or Romney were on the ticket, but McBrilliant picked Sarah Palin.
What an arresting choice.
"The rest comes from the fact that she is like those she must appeal to, regular people."
There's actually a lot of people--especially after 8 years of Bush--that don't want people like them in charge of the country. Anyone with the slightest bit of self-realization will feel that way.
I don't want someone like myself or anyone I know to be President.
VC: "Still looking for that silver bullet against Palin I see. She must really drive you guys nuts. Why?"
Because they sense some great stories about corruption and abuse of power. What they don't see is that the reporters are on this and will do any digging needed. I don't think McCain's mismanaged campaign planned this distraction phase, but they are certainly using it. It distracts people from the election between Obama and McCain. Anything to distract people from McCain's confused policy is a benefit for him.
?Petekent-
That is her only appeal - I am just as unqualified as you!!!
It permeates our movies too, where complete dumbasses come out on top - see it can happen to you! Forest Gump...
Sarah Palin is the Hillary Clinton of the Republican party...totally and completely polarizing...she inspires her base completely and is held in utter contempt by liberals. Republicans should think about the reasons you salivated over Hillary being our nominee and then apply that to Palin.
Shap - do you know how silly you sound? My god, spin is one thing, but making yourself sound uneducated and living in a bubble is a whole nother level.
Wasn't Shap trying to be sarcastic?
Sam Watts I am from that area. My wife (a lifetime Repub) is from here.
You are dead on!
I hate it.........but it is what is!
SICK!
"Still looking for that silver bullet against Palin I see. She must really drive you guys nuts. Why?"
Because we already tried having an idiot who doesn't understand science run our country.
And I really don't think Obama had a chance to take AK...maybe in the same way he had a "chance" to take Georgia. He wasn't going to invest in Alaska anyways because both him and McCain should start narrowing the focus of their advertising dollars any day now...
On that note, Nate/Sean, it would be nice to have another of those comparisons between Obama and McCain's advertising spending in key states and their field offices in each state in a month or so. Just thinking out loud.
jonker-
So the National Enquirer is good for McCan't? I think not...
Could the McCain campaign not check out any of the BS Palin sold them? She really bamboozled them.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/09/does-anything-c.html
McCain reveals the extent of his knowledge of Palin:
"You know what I enjoyed the most? She took the luxury jet that was acquired by her predecessor and sold it on eBay -- made a profit," he said, introducing Palin.
Nope. The state sold it at a loss of half a million dollars - and not on eBay. McCain picked her on thinly sourced anecdotes. At best.
We're not voting for scientist-in-chief. That's cultural stuff you don't like.
Marc, Brad, Steve, others:
Now, my Hilary friends up here can't vote down there, but if they are any indication of the trend then Obama's supporters would be better off stop calling her things like 'sociopath' *glares at certain posters* and better off stop talking about her at all.
They were all very skeptical when McCain chose her: "He only picked her because he wanted Hilary's votes!"
Then on reflection they became undecided: "I don't want to vote against her."
Then seeing the nasty attacks on her from Democratic strategists and columnists they became irate: "That tears it! I'm supporting Palin now!"
So.. if you want Palin's favourable views to increase.. keep attacking her!
I predicted before she gave this speech that the first few days would play out like this: She was torn down so badly before she gave the speech by everyone that as long as she didn't fall on her face she'd exceed expectations. She did sports broadcasting and beauty pageants when she was young. She presents well. After a good speech, the media would feel guilty and laud her incessantly to try to get in good graces with the McCain camp and out of guilt. This is exactly what has happened. The next part of the equation is McCain delivers a poor speech, the convention was a referendum on Palin and she passed it, but McCain never really had a convention. Will haunt him by the end. Yes, 40 million people watched, but the speech was poor. Anyway, after the convention McCain pulls into close to a deadheat with Obama, though still probably slightly behind, probably about 47-46 and it will likely be the high water mark for McCain unless the consensus opinion is McCain won the debates by a large margin. In the end, Obama wins. What could happen is McCain comes close and the GOP think Palin is their next great President. She will never, ever win a general election at the top of a ticket. She might be a blessing in disguise for DEMs as she may hand a future election to them in 2012 or 2016. The GOP wants what Pat Buchanan and others call one of ther own, but this country won't elect one as extreme as her.
VC;
Regarding the library issue. Aren't you dizzy from all that spinning. She fucking fired the librarian and was was forced to backtrack.
No she didn't actually ban a book, but she certainly looked into it. You don't trust any talkng point the Obama campaign would put out. Why should anyone believe this BS from the McCain et al?
The letter that is linked in an earlier post on this thread (Ben @5:21) contains real information on the topic. And it's beeno out for several days and I still haven't heard of one documentable refutation of it. IF you actually find one, do post it (as I am sure you would anyway) but do make ssure it contains documentable facts.
She brought up the topic at a council meeting. It's on the record. Admittedly she didn't try, maybe because she found out the problems it would cause. But even asking about it is bad enough. After all many denominations of Christians think that wanting to do somoething is as bad as actually doing it. (Remember Jimmy Carter and his Llust in the heart?)
Palin is the Hillary of the GOP, with folksy appeal, and devoid of significant ideas and accomplishment.
Some here need to get a grip . Now I am 71, the first presidental election I have memories of was in 1952. How many here can even tell me who were the candidates and their VP picks?
But the main question, Who can name the last president to be elected because of his VP selection? not who lost an election because of their pick but who won?I can only think of 1 and that was not because of adding major voter appeal but that he was able to carry his home state, hint Texas, for the electoral vote win.
quantman,
Thanks for the shout out. And to the others, I'm not trying to say it's something that's easily defined, but quantifying rural vs. urban (the mindset, anyway) goes well beyond putting up a measuring stick based on population or whatever. And it's the mindset that affects voters, not whether they are an individual in a town of 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000.
Eve:
So.. what you're saying is.. because she couldn't sell her used jet at a profit.. she's a bad choice?
Ever try to sell a used car for more than you bought it for? I can think of only one of my friends who managed to, and that was because he bought it for $1 from a friend and sold it for $50 to the scrapyard.
Mark said:Few Americans wear $1300 dresses like Michelle Obama.
Yup, it's nothing compared with Cindy McCain's $300,000 in clothing and accessories she had on Wednesday night. Christ, with that money the McCain's could buy house number eight! Americans can sure relate to that!
Normally I don't engage trolls, but I just couldn't help it this time.
dominoid,
McBrilliant understands what Obama bin-Biden does not: You cannot win by party alone.
What a perfect year if you are Republican to run as an outsider, independent of party. Heck, his running mate is practically from a foreign country.
Opinion request:
I see Obama, Biden, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Sebelius (to a lesser degrr on her) really hitting the country hard the last month or more.
On the other side I see McCain, Palin and WHO? Romney, Giuliani
To my partial eyes I see a real benefit on the Dem side for these campaign events and as a result a +1 or 2 polling advantage as a result.
What about y'all?
Sam Watts... I heard Karl Rove mention this site on Fox. Just the other day I saw Michael Barone refer to Nate's analysis in his column.
Nate has definitely moved way up the ladder into some pretty rarefied atmosphere.
I just hope it doesn't spoil him. Things can get nasty up there :-)
Sarah is +21 in the Rasmussen poll, not +19.
Roger:
i think you are 100% right on the likely outcomes from trooper gate. None will hurt Palin and have provided the fodder for the media and set the trap of for persecution meme.
Once the public realizes it has been duped, it will idealize Palin out of guilt.
You may argue that it's "cultural" all you want. It's not. It's the simple difference between critical thought and taking any statement you want to believe at face value. Both believers and non-believers are capable of both. But those who believe creationism deserves to live side-by-side with scientific theories backed by fact are demonstrating their scary ability to engage in the second.
I want somebody who knows the difference between rationally considering the facts and accepting whatever she wants to believe. Lives are at stake here.
"practically from a foreign country"...I guess if Palin and her husband had their way it would be from another country.
Eve, with the plain thing. She was actually quite careful in her word choice and said she PUT it on Ebay, but certainly leave it to old Johnny boy to insert foot in said mouth.
filistro--you get the snark award of the day. the Comment on pay-per-view was priceless. I am seconding the request for chicken entrails.
john said...
Some here need to get a grip . Now I am 71, the first presidental election I have memories of was in 1952. How many here can even tell me who were the candidates and their VP picks?
But the main question, Who can name the last president to be elected because of his VP selection? not who lost an election because of their pick but who won?I can only think of 1 and that was not because of adding major voter appeal but that he was able to carry his home state, hint Texas, for the electoral vote win.
Tru enough, on that note, imagine if Kennedy picked someone else and din't win Texas. Our country would be so different today, it's hard to imagine the ripple effect. Nixon becomes President in 1960. The Kennedys still in the wings, Who know s what would have happened with Vietnam, Civil rights Act (John, Bobby, MLK), No Watergate, which probably changes Carter to Reagan's Conservative Revolution, etc, etc. All because LBJ gave Kennedy Texas.
Brad: "So the National Enquirer is good for McCan't? I think not..."
Of course not! But we have already hit Palin enough this week. McCain needs to take some punches soon. His poor speech yesterday needs a much bigger focus. His rash judgement and temperment might also be a good thing to hit on. When the Enquirer comes out with more details and documents we can laugh at McCain's choice of a corupt Alaskan right-winger.
Jonker:
you have been spending too much time on the blogs. Watch the cable news and read the coverage.
McCain is being seen as having repudiated his party and declaring himself as independent of party.
It has been reported that the new twin themes of the campaign are Change and Populism, and McCain hit on both hard today.
September polls lie
a fog of swinging numbers
and so we bicker
Still looking for that silver bullet against Palin I see. She must really drive you guys nuts. Why?
Actually she doesn't really matter, she's just a VP. What totally messes with us is the same thing that makes the trolls set us off - the total cognitive disconnect between the person and the facts about the person.
Just too many things popping up that Sarah as run for political office for pure self interest, she tends to think the power is hers rather than her being just a custodian of the power, and that she can do whatever she wants like it was running something not even on the level of a business, like a charity auction or such.
Its like dealing with adolescents who do things for the sole purpose of pissing adults off no matter what the long term consequences are. Annoying and the more annoying they see they are making you the more annoying they try to be even it the end results hurts them as a result.
That's what drives us nut - watching you guys point the gun at your foot and play russian roulette with the country over and over just to get a reaction out of us.
SouthernOntarioan, aircraft APPRECIATE with time not depreciate like a vehicle. There really is no story on the airplane and Ebay thing though.
PeteKent Said,
"Heck, his running mate is practically from a foreign country."
Yes. VERY exotic.
VC is right.
Obama had a distant shot at AK and that is gone now.
She forcloses MT, and likely secures CO and NV.
Where the magic can happen is in WA or WI or MN.
Have you noticed, as we are talking about states, that Obama has been spending a lot of time in PA lately. That would be like McCain campaiging where? MO?
Obama may be ahead, but his leads are thin in a lot of states.
It Was easy to predict the quality of the speeches as we've been watching this election play out. No surprise Obama outperformed McCain on delivery, but what do ya'll think will be the outcome o the debates? Hard to predict. Obama had to hit a stride in the primaries, it took a while. By the end he was doing a good job, but there was a learning curve. McCain was average in the debates all the way through, but he outperformed Obama at Saddleback, the Lion's Den for Obama, so no surprise. My guess is Obama wins the domestic policy debate by a large margin, McCain wins the foreign policy debate by a small margin. Biden and Palin perform about to expectations in their debate. Any thoughts?
Palin will impress
in the swinging Fall debate
smiling through her lies
The rest comes from the fact that she is like those she must appeal to, regular people.
Sure, because "regular people" are former beauty queens, basktball barricudas, mayors, governors, Alaskans, speak with a -- well, whatever that is -- accent, oppose abortion in cases of rape, shoot wolves from airplanes, ...
In reality, Palin's no less foreign than Obama, and a lot more foreign than Biden. (And let's not even mention the downright creepy Uncle Fester McCain.) But it's all about perception, and that depends on marketing.
Tito:
I did not notice you.
Did you say something relevant?
I liked dario better, btw.
And what happend to our Rome Conservative?
southernontarian-
with that kind of deep analysis, i am glad you can't vote dwon here.
nothing said here matters.
low info independents matter.
ahhh... haiku!
pit bull in lipstick
teenage daughter's baby bump
hillbilly White House
PeteKent said...
VC is right.
Obama had a distant shot at AK and that is gone now.
She forcloses MT, and likely secures CO and NV.
Where the magic can happen is in WA or WI or MN.
Have you noticed, as we are talking about states, that Obama has been spending a lot of time in PA lately. That would be like McCain campaiging where? MO?
Obama may be ahead, but his leads are thin in a lot of states.
You are very silly. If McCain wins, it will be by playing good defense. It could happen, but you sound delusional if you think somehow Wa, WI, or MN would flip Red and Colorado is locked up. Very silly analysis.
you have been spending too much time on the blogs. Watch the cable news and read the coverage.
Yeah, ignore what the populace says, only pay attention to paid shills.
Of course I say the jet thing is no big deal and CNN makes it a headline:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/05/alaska-state-jet-didnt-fly-on-ebay/
Still no big deal though. Gone tomorrow. Actually in a bout an hour.
The one thing it could do though is make it look like everything she says is a fabrication, stretched truth or outright lie. Oh wait. It is.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/gop_convention_spin_part_ii.html
I have voted for nobody but third-party candidates since the very first election I was eligible to vote, in 1996. Yes, even in 2004. Such was the disgust with which I viewed the tactics and lack of ideas from the two major parties. I continue to view the parties in the same light.
Each election season -- particularly of the presidential variety -- there has always been a vast amount of comments from both major parties that made me want to cry, vomit, dive headfirst into a pool of rusty razor blades, or somehow perform all three actions simultaneously. To be honest, typically the number from the Republican camp outnumbered that from the Democrats. (Not by much, mind you.)
Still, I couldn't bring myself to buy the whole "lesser of two evils" nonsense. I continued to cling to an idea I knew was
ridiculously idealistic and futile: that I should vote for the person I considered best for the job in question, based on a combination of being most qualified
and shared interest in positions I deem most important.
For me, this year is officially different. With the closing of the Republican National Convention, I have officially made the decision to vote as hard against John McCain as possible this election, by voting specifically for Barack Obama. I announce this to no one in particular, but feel I must get it off my chest in some sort of public forum.
For those interested: I've been slowly pushed in that direction for the past few months, and the last week finally knocked me off the overly romantic notions I desperately wrapped my heart around.
The proverbial "straw to break the camel's back" was the full slate of RNC coverage I watched. I found virtually all of it horrifying, and to a far greater extent than any major political party convention in the last twelve years. The one single moment that epitomizes the entire convention was this:
Rudy Giuliani says the words "community organizer", and thousands of convention-goers chuckle heartily. Republican candidates slap each other on the back and belly laugh their brains out that Rudy pulled off such a knee-slapping funny. After all, I suppose, what could be more humorous than a person dedicating themselves to helping those who can use the help?
I have dedicated a very, very tiny -- insignificant, really -- portion of my life to helping those less fortunate than I. I deeply admire those with the fortitude and humilty to do far more than I have, particularly since many grew up with far less that I did.
I watched in stunned horror as these people -- who should be held up as examples to us all -- were unmercifully mocked, and their service denigrated. That this was an encouraged theme at the RNC proves to me this was not an isolated incident, but evidence of a larger pattern which disturbs me to no end.
Mr. McCain, you may well be a good man. Surely, I had no intention for voting you, but neither did I have any intention of voting for your main opponent. The party to which you belong, though, has officially disgusted me to such an extent that I will specifically be casting a vote against you in November. I will also encourage others to do the same.
Thanks for listening, all.
Joe
filistro
Two general guidelines govern Traditional Haiku writing in Japanese. These guidelines are:
* The poem consists of 17 syllables, contained usually within three lines; this convention is a must in Japanese. In English, which has variations in the length of syllables, this can sometimes be difficult, but an interesting intellectual and internal challenge at the same time;
* The poem should indicate through a KIGO, a SEASON word, the time of year. Often the kigo is not overtly expressed or obvious and may therefore be implied instead
Palin and Biden tied so to say...hmm...
Is that good or bad for Palin? I´d say it´s bad, exactly BECAUSE she is new to the national stage. Biden is a known figure. His failed runs, his off-message remarks, his roots and humble demeanor.
Palin was presented to us as the Washingon-outsider, hockey-super-mom. The introduction of the VP is always done by the campaign itself, that´s because they tell us who the VP is... So our first impression is ALWAYS the most favorable one.
The media comes later. Just as Barack Obama had skyhigh favorables at first (Obamamania after Iowa) and soon began to rack up high unfavorables, too - Sarah Palin´s numbers will also decline. Her favorability rating will stay the same I guess, but the unfavorables will rise. Biden´s numbers however will remain rather stable I would guess.
But apart from that, the low ratings for BOTH VP´s are interesting. But both picks did not have do-no-harm as their first priority. Biden was Mr. Foreign Policy, and Palin was Mrs. Middle-aged woman for the base.
Nate has a great deal of potential. Statistical reasoning is fact based analysis of the highest order and can help you figure things out and make you money, if you are smart, or figure out baseball, if you are not. Snark!
I think Nate does precious little tending of his flock here.
He drops in his threads and then exhorts us to discuss, never appearing again to resolve our debates.
He certainly need not referee our squabbles; that would be a fool's errand!
Remember Nate: to those whom much is given, much is expected.
while on the boards people are focusing on Palin the candidates actually running Obama/Biden are focusing on what matters. Biden today was great--he hit both McCain and Palin and all the speaker because they offered nothing and just acted like snarky bullies on the stage. he said it with a smile in a perfect tone and had the crowd eating it up. They are keeping their eyes on the price.
filistro wrote:
I would also like the site to incorporate a section on necromancy: raw chicken entrails and canine knucklebones are excellent means of foretelling elections results.
Minor quibble: necromancy is speaking with the dead. You are talking about divination.
But it still made me chuckle.
FYI, the I Ching has been putting up excellent numbers for Obama lately, and I haven't come across a spread of tea leaves yet that doesn't bode disaster for Palin.
Sam Watts:
Read your post. Even assuming I believe your statement of intent, that's not what it said. In fact your post was absurb, inaccurrate rude and demeaning.
I know that, Will... but you're a purist, and I'm not :-)
I also write a mean limerick, BTW.
There was a fair maid from Alaska...
NO. I... must... resist.
Chill nights bring hot words
many speak but know little
we wait for the polls
Joe, you missed our wonderful community organizer discussion earlier today.
WELCOME ABOARD.
So "necromancy" would refer to conversations with McCain?
Our country would be so different today, it's hard to imagine the ripple effect. Nixon becomes President in 1960.
Yep and the thing is I voted for Nixon in 60, first presidential election I was old enough to vote, that was back in my young and foolish republican days, probably me being a maverick since I live in SC and those were days when the south was still democratic.
SouthernOntarioan said...
"So.. what you're saying is.. because she couldn't sell her used jet at a profit.. she's a bad choice?"
No, that is not what I said. You are not even close. The profit or loss had nothing to do with my point.
Go back and read what I said. You probably still won't understand the point I was making was about McCain's competence not about how to sell an airplane.
15 minutes out from a city you're out not logner urbanized? The last time I was there, (14 years ago) if you took US 611 north from Philadelphia you didn't see the end of suburbia for about 35 miles and I am sure it sprawls even further today. And given the traffic, that drive was over an hour unless you did it between midnight and 6 am.
Matthew,
Perhaps in my attempt to sound sarcastic I was overly short and made it seem like I didnt see the "under" in his sentence. It is a pet peeve of mine when people "torture" numbers to make them more significant than they are. 100000 communities under 10000 is meaningless number that tries to make it a bigger deal than it is, just as when people use percentages to describe proportions in small population (4 out of 5 becomes "80%")
So now in this attempt to sound grandiose the GOP talking heads try to use this meaningless number to make it sound like a lot of people live there (hence the 1 billion joke). Because if they used the straightforward number of people there, which is the only thing that matters electorally, they'd come to the conclusion that the "mainstream heartland" is far from being the mainstream... even a simple majority! Of course, its where the swing voters are, and with the electoral college they matter more than otherwise, but these attempts to talk up the "small town" as where the real, mainstream americans are is BS.
Almost 1/3 of the population live in the largest 9 metropolitan areas. But somehow 1/3 of the population is elitist, disconnected from the "pulse of america" because they don't live in one of the 1000000 communities under 10000, which, in actual population terms, is the real minority, mostly out of touch with the real majority of americans.
pit bull in lipstick
teenage daughter's baby bump
hillbilly White HouseL
The week of the RNC was like "Lifestyles of the Fringe and Kooky."
Btw, I believe Palin will definitely NOT help in Nevada. A state that makes a ton of money with gambling, quick marriages and divorces will not vote for an evangelical. (And if you add McCain´s Arizona-first water plans and Yucca Mountain you have to wonder why that state is still close...)
Lat Said,
"Biden today was great--he hit both McCain and Palin and all the speaker because they offered nothing and just acted like snarky bullies on the stage"
Here's the video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=955Y3NJTRIE
Freakin' phenomenal
Which lead me to repost this:
Opinion request:
I see Obama, Biden, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton and Sebelius (to a lesser degrr on her) really hitting the country hard the last month or more.
On the other side I see McCain, Palin and WHO? Romney, Giuliani
To my partial eyes I see a real benefit on the Dem side for these campaign events and as a result a +1 or 2 polling advantage as a result.
What about y'all?
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