During the summer, John McCain’s Reno office was struggling to attract volunteers. After he selected Sarah Palin as his running mate, there was a line of volunteers waiting outside the campaign office the following morning. Since then, they’ve gotten a solid 20 volunteers a night, though only four were there the night I stopped into the office. I was willing to believe the 20 figure, given the re-energized party since Palin entered the race.
By contrast, Barack Obama’s Reno office has been humming for months. Though John Kerry won the city of Reno in 2004, he lost neighboring Sparks and Washoe County as a whole by 4.21%, or 6,704 votes. That represents just over 31% of his total losing margin (21,500), despite the fact that Washoe contributes only about 19% of Nevada’s statewide voting total.
In just the last year, Washoe County’s R-D voter registration gap has dropped from R +16,000 to R +5,000. The several months on the ground leading up to the January 19 caucus helped. That shift represents a lot of grinding, day-by-day work by organizers and volunteers to canvass and recanvass neighborhoods that can't be crammed at the last minute. Here are the McCain and Obama Reno field offices.
Republicans, of course, have long built up grassroots and neighbor-to-neighbor infrastructure, so there is much less startup time when someone like Sarah Palin comes along to light the fuse. Republican volunteers told me that it’s simply part of the culture – doing your part during election cycles is just what folks do. I noticed organized tables lined with phones in the Reno office ready to accommodate a couple dozen volunteers. The Palin enthusiasm will undoubtedly help base turnout, but with Clark County looming as a given Democratic win, will the 11,000 gap-closing voter registration be too much a statistical factor to overcome?
Local Washoe Democratic grassroots activists really got underway here beginning in 2004. Effectively trained by the DNC 50-state program, they have been building party infrastructure by cleaning up voter files, identifying and staying in contact with Democrats to build for the long haul. While campaign organizers despise yard signs and other chum for the massive headachey hassle they represent (longer post to come on this topic sooner or later), the best argument I’ve ever heard for yard signs came from two local Washoe County grassroots-ers, who explained that a yard sign was an opportunity to easily identify another supporter who they could approach and who could then be kept active in between cycles. See a yard sign, meet a neighbor, fold them into the active grassroots ranks.
The analogy they offered about the presidential campaign was that it was like a freight train rolling through. The paid campaign organizers are younger and have an aggressive plan of action for the given organizing area. They hit the ground running. The grassroots folks are older, settled into their communities, and so both sides must work hard at communication so that everyone’s on the same page and everyone knows their roles. Ultimately, it’s a challenge that comes down to personalities, and organizers have the responsibility for making sure the existing groups feel both in the loop and listened to.
The more long-term developed the grassroots, the easier this is, and the less organized and the worse the state the voter file is in, the more control the campaign has to exert. In the end, it’s always dependent on the meshing of individual personalities. Happily for Obama supporters, it seems clear upon careful questioning that Washoe County grassroots and the Obama campaign are on the same page – though we might not find that everywhere we go. There are minor issues, for example grassroots folks wanting a little more lead time to organize for an event or a canvass; organizers of course often simply don’t get the lead time or are so overwhelmed with work that things don’t operate with perfect precision. In organizing, it’s never a perfect world, so the willingness of volunteers to compromise and roll with the punches is key to a successful ground campaign.
Housekeeping notes: We’ll be in Pahrump and Vegas later today, and then on to New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment. As a teaser, there are a couple new features we’re pretty excited about adding to this series, and they will debut over the coming days.
9.15.2008
On the Road: Reno, Nevada
by Sean Quinn @ 2:59 PM...see also nevada, on the road
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)

105 comments
The likely voters are giving the gift of Nevada to Obama.
moondancer,
I wish you'd shut the hell up.
How about a report on Art Bell's compound in Phrumph?
SUSA has a new poll of VA. that has Obama up 4. Seems like McCain has peaked and is on the way down.
Today`s stupid comments about the economy will only make him look more out of touch.
My guess is after the first debate Obama rises to a lead, McCain will show his age up on the stage that night.
Gee. Thanks for your ever-enlightening posts Mule Rider.
McCain/Palin have indeed peaked. It will happen gradually, but over the next few days the numbers will start coming down.
Things on Wall St will make people think to themselves "Wait...do we really want another Republican president just because of hockey and earmarks?"
I agree momentum is fizzling out on McCAin - but i dont think Obama has momentum either. Its a tie basically now.....with the economy issue now the jump ball !
SEe below and let me know how you all think this information will cycle out into the media. One name is conspiculously absent from this list, and it makes sense as McCain has been calling for the end of Fannie mae for awhile.
Top Recipients of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Campaign Contributions, 1989-2008
Name
Office
Party/State
Total
1. Dodd, Christopher J
S
D-CT
$133,900
2. Kerry, John
S
D-MA
$111,000
3. Obama, Barack
S
D-IL
$105,849
4. Clinton, Hillary
S
D-NY
$75,550
5. Kanjorski, Paul E
H
D-PA
$65,500
6. Bennett, Robert F
S
R-UT
$61,499
7. Johnson, Tim
S
D-SD
$61,000
8. Conrad, Kent
S
D-ND
$58,991
9. Davis, Tom
H
R-VA
$55,499
10. Bond, Christopher S 'Kit'
S
R-MO
$55,400
11. Bachus, Spencer
H
R-AL
$55,300
12. Shelby, Richard C
S
R-AL
$55,000
13. Emanuel, Rahm
H
D-IL
$51,750
14. Reed, Jack
S
D-RI
$50,750
15. Carper, Tom
S
D-DE
$44,389
16. Frank, Barney
H
D-MA
$40,100
17. Maloney, Carolyn B
H
D-NY
$38,750
18. Bean, Melissa
H
D-IL
$37,249
19. Blunt, Roy
H
R-MO
$36,500
20. Pryce, Deborah
H
R-OH
$34,750
21. Miller, Gary
H
R-CA
$33,000
22. Pelosi, Nancy
H
D-CA
$32,750
23. Reynolds, Tom
H
R-NY
$32,700
24. Hoyer, Steny H
H
D-MD
$30,500
25. Hooley, Darlene
H
D-OR
$28,750
Includes contributions from PACs and individuals.
2008 cycle totals based on data downloaded from the
Federal Election Commission on June 30, 2008.
Can you make that into a pivot table
It won't matter unless McCain has some ideas he can actually talk about.
Let's hope the swift boat reports are wrong, but in the end the electorate will not fall for swift boating this time.
Fred, McCain does have something to talk about - rooting out corruption, such as the corruption and revolving door between Dem/GOP politicians/operatives and the Fannie Mae board of directors and executives who made millions of dollars while completely oversaturating the housing market with idiotic oversupply, caused by the lack of a market check on their activities. That's what happens when the government is seen as backing your business practices, the market view gets pushed down the pike.
Geoff-
Obama's campaign doesn't accept money from PAC's, unlike McCain. Individual's who happen to work for a company cannot be told who to give to.
I find it telling that wall street by and large wants Obama to win. I think they are looking for an administration to enact some meaningful anti-speculator regulations, so that ordinary folks can trust the markets again.
new features are great, but gimme more of that road to 270!
Are we overdue for a new Senate polling update? Or did I just miss the roundup?
Geoff-
the problem with the narrative is that the Bushie neo-cons walked away from regulating the market. Same story with oil. They have admitted it by establishing a new oversight agency for housing.
McCain is on very shaky ground if he goes dwon the Fannie Mae road, his record of lying about his "reforemr" credentials is long if you actually look at his record. The Keating 5 is bad enough, but when you add the rest, and who is running his campaign...
Sept 15 Polling Update
Cindy McCain's Fallacious Rebuttal
The Red November: An analysis on campaign marketing
Will Walker said:
I find it telling that wall street by and large wants Obama to win. I think they are looking for an administration to enact some meaningful anti-speculator regulations, so that ordinary folks can trust the markets again.
What the hell do you think Wall Street is? It is an orgy of "speculators."
Ass.
Geoff,
When are you expecting those Rasmussen state polls?
-Van
We need the RAS state polls.
Anyone know if he is doing his "extra" party ID adjustment on these? If he is drop the number for McCain by 1 or 2 to compare to prior polling.
Geoff said...
Dem/GOP politicians/operatives and the Fannie Mae board of directors and executives who made millions of dollars while completely oversaturating the housing market with idiotic oversupply
Actually, it was McCain "a nation of whiners" Phil Gramm who was at the root of the subprime crisis.
I would recommend this podcast to get yourself up to speed on the origins of the current economic crisis.
When you lie like your candidate, you will discover, wonder of wonders, that people stop believing you.
The people on Wall Street don't want the mess to be cleaned up. They are making too much money screwing everyone else. So they are behind Obama - he of the Chicago Machine and Joe 'Credit Card' Biden. They know McCain will clean things up and so they hope he doesn't will.
McCain literally slept with lobbyists, at least most politicos only do it figuratively.
What the hell do you think Wall Street is? It is an orgy of "speculators."
Ass.
Mulerider, you need to take your candidate's advice, get up from the computer, and get some fresh air. There's no need use insults here.
09/15 11:01 CDT The United States deal sees Obama cede some power
The United States deal sees Obama cede some power
By ANGUS SHAW
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON DC, United States (AP) -- President Barak Obama relaxed his iron hold on the United States for the first time in nearly three decades of one-man rule, forced by escalating economic chaos into signing a power-sharing deal Monday with his bitter political rivals.
Thousands of supporters of the rival parties threw stones at each other outside
the convention center where the signing ceremony took place. Police fired
warning shots and set dogs on the crowd but several hundred broke through the
gates onto the sprawling grounds. The crowd calmed after the initial clashes
and cheered as the leaders left.
Obama, main opposition leader Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton, leader
of a faction that broke away from Democratic party, all pledged with passion
to make the deal work. But long-simmering and bitter differences between the
two sides and the nation's worsening economic collapse are expected to put the
power-sharing deal under intense pressure.
Middle East nations, whose aid and investment could mean the difference between the success or failure of the unity experiment, reacted cautiously. Millions of
dollars in aid are expected if Obama proves genuine about sharing power and
working to end the United States' economic and political crisis.
The European Union welcomed the deal but officials said it was still too early
to ease sanctions against Obama. Russia expressed cautious optimism.
Obama, has been in power since 2008 and went from being praised as a liberator to being vilified as an autocrat. He and Palin have been enemies for decades, and Palin has been jailed, beaten, tortured and tried for treason _ charges that were dismissed in court.
The deal is the result of more than two months of difficult negotiations
mediated by Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The group insists that Obama remain
president.
The first 30 pages of the 80-page deal were made public after the deal was
signed.
The deal lays out a complicated arrangement with Obama chairing the Cabinet
and Palin heading a new Council of Ministers responsible for forming
government policies.
The agreement sets out a timetable for drafting a new constitution that would
include input from community organizers. The consultation process is to begin within a month and a referendum on the constitution is slated to take place within two years.
The deal also promises the start of a process of re-registering and licensing
media organizations under eased press laws in a new "open media environment."
The United States' draconian media laws prohibited any journalist or media organization not approved by the government from operating. Even licensed journalists have been arrested and attacked.
In a nationally televised speech after signing the agreement before diplomats,
The United States an officials and other third world country leaders, said the
government's first priority should be addressing hunger.
The world's highest inflation _ and a meager harvest this year _ has made it
difficult for many the United States to feed themselves in what was once the world's breadbasket. In addition, Obama's government in June restricted the work of aid agencies, accusing them of siding with the opposition before a presidential runoff. The ban was lifted last month, but aid agencies say it takes time to gear up.
Before the ban was lifted, U.N. humanitarian agencies had predicted the number
of the United States who will need help to stave off hunger will rise to more than 500 million by early next year.
Critics have linked The United States economic decline to Obama's 2009 orders that farms be seized from whites and handed over to poor blacks. Many of the farms ended up in the hands of Obama loyalists, and the economy's agricultural base was disrupted. Food, fuel and hospital supplies are scarce, and millions of the United States citizens _ doctors, teachers, businesspeople among them _ have fled the country in search of work.
The deal describes the seizure of the farms as irreversible and say Britain
should compensate those whose land was taken.
. Palin, blaming the "the policies of the democrats" for today's problems,
said: "Under my leadership, this unity government will let businesses flourish
so our people can work and provide for their families with pride."
Still, Palin said the United States faced the option of uniting the country and moving forward or letting the impasse "plunge our country into the abyss of a
failed state."
She saluted members of congress for their willingness to work across parties
lines. "If you were my enemy yesterday, today we are bound by the same
patriotic duty and destiny," she said.
She called for legislators to be "driven by the hope of a new, better, brighter
country" and the "hope of a new beginning."
For his part, Obama returned to his habitual complaints that former republican president was responsible for his country's woes. Obama stopped short of
repeating accusations Palin had allowed herself to be used by the Republicans to bring about "regime change," but said opposition parties across America were
known for using any means, "including violence" to gain power. In fact, it is
Obama's supporters who are accused of the worst of the violence surrounding
recent elections.
Obama added: "We have to walk the same route the same way.
"Are we beginning today? No. We have been walking the same route without
knowing it, or not recognizing each other. After all, we are all Americans
and is there any other road, any other route to follow? History makes us walk
the same route."
Britain, one of the strongest critics of Obama, is expected to offer some
immediate humanitarian aid to The United States following the agreement between Obama and Palin. But officials said Britain will first assess how the coalition
is working.
"We hope that the new government will now reverse the tragic policies and
decline of recent years," British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said in a
statement Monday. "The new government needs to start to rebuild the country. If
it does so, Britain and the rest of the international community will be quick
to support them."
Some opposition members who wanted Obama to surrender power completely have
complained the power-sharing deal does not go far enough and that it creates an
arrangement Obama could exploit, especially given the tension that exists
between the two opposition factions.
In March's presidential polling, Palin won the most votes, but not enough
to avoid a runoff against Obama. An onslaught of state-sponsored violence
against Palin's supporters led her to drop out of the presidential runoff
and Obama was declared the overwhelming winner of the second vote widely
denounced as a sham.
The Fannie Mae contributions list doesn't make much sense unless you list it as a percentage of total contributions from all sources. Obviously since Barack has raised $600+ million in campaign contributions, he is going to have high figures from a lot of companies, compared to other senators who aren't running for president.
Will, you mistake realism for support. Everyone, including Wall Street, thought the Dems were a lock this year - so Wall Street was paying the winner, same thing they do most years. Look back at Clinton 96 for evidence. Check September numbers for a wake up call on Wall Street giving - i'd predict a RNC surge over DNC for sure, perhaps even competitive with DNC plus Obama for Wall Street.
Fred, I disagree - McCain's paid in blood for fighting for democratic leaning legislation, that earned him credibility that won't be gone on election day. Maybe if he wins and sells out Dems completely, he loses it. Not yet. Obama can and probably still win, but the irony of the situation is that an Obama presidency with a GOP congress probably would be the best thing.
Dems blocked a Treasury shift in oversight from HUD over Fannie since 2003, bottling it up in committee. So, I think there is blame to go around. Plus, money talks....Obama aint taking PAC money now, but he sure used to v. all other senators SINCE 1989! #3?
Comedian said:
"President Barak Obama relaxed his iron hold on the United States for the first time in nearly three decades of one-man rule"
I said:
You actually get people to buy this trash? How dumb are voters if they fall for this? Wasn't it Busha dn ?Cheney who literally PLANNED OUT how to postpone an election to keep power?
Sooo - relating to the current post:
Does anyone know what specifically would attract Nevada voters to Obama over McCain in this case, seeing as how the state went for Bush in the last two cycles? I'm not talking about just the ground team - like what really draws them to one candidate over the other here. I previously wrote Nevada off for McCain and didn't regard it as such a swing state...
Nate + Sean - I love the on-the-road reporting. It adds an extra dimension to the analysis...so I'm guessing the soon-to-be-added features related to that aspect.
Chuck Todd is basically crying as he admits McCain has made a surge.
SAd.
Well, we can agree that divided government is best, please don't tell moveon.org.
"Mule Rider said...
Final Score,
Mule Rider 127, Liberals 0
Good day and good riddance, assholes.
September 15, 2008 2:01 PM"
Back so soon, kiddo?
YES!
Even the liberal Chuck Todd admits to the MCCAIN SURGE!
Vanessa -- Ras might be holding them back for the 6PM fox special today....no afternoon update yet usually at 2.
Sucks.
Comparison of Obama's VA poll numbers with actual exit poll results from CNN (2004)
Male/Female ratio
Male 46%
Female 54%
Age
18-29 (17%)
30-44 (32%)
45-59 (32%)
60 and Older (19%)
*don't ask me why these age percentages add up to 96%
SUSA poll released 091508:
Male/Female ratio
Male 50%
Female 50%
Age
18-34 (25%)
35-49 (33%)
50-64 (26%)
65 and higher (16%)
The age groups are defined slightly differently but well within reason given the demographic switch.
If you adjust the male to female ratio to what it should be in the SUSA poll then Obama is up 5%
Marie,
Bush only won NV by 22,000 votes. In 2004 Repubs had party registration advantage as of Aug 2008 Dems have a 76,000 registration advantage. Las Vegas is growing very qickly and has strong union influence and NV has a rapidly growing Latino populatin that Obama is polling at low 60's to McCain low 20's. These are many of the actors why NV is good play for Obama.
Congrads - Todd is about 2-3 days behind the curve. Obama has blunted McCain's momentum and the race is at an equilibrium at a point or two either way, maybe a point McCain's way more likely.
That's no reason for conservatives to get happy but it is reason for centrists to be happy that both of these SMUCKS (yes i said it both of them) will be FORCED to campaign to the center harder than if Obama had run away with things.
Great thing for America.
Thanks Geoff.
Some sleepless nights as a result of these polls....
Thanks Geoff.
Some sleepless nights as a result of these polls....
Marie,
The nuclear issue is big in NV as the proposed waste storage facility, Yucca Mnt, is in NV close to LV. McCain is much more linked to this than Obama, though both have supported increasing Nuclear power. It certainly could be the local issue that tips it to Obama
Nate
Please, Please, Please dump the Zogby interactive polls.
It is going to be some time before your state polls recover from the Palin bump. So many were taken at it's hight, and as many were single day compensating will be nigh on imposible. There was so much day to day jitter.
There would be good sense in treating the conventions as a diconuity and dumping all date prior to, say, the end of this week in any state that has suficient later polling.
In any assesment there are the factors that can be measured, and those that have to be left to judgment. Right now the later are on top. It is probably more important to get an estimate of the general character of the Palin panic than State polls that have validity for only hours.
Uhhh Zogby.
Just one poll yinassis. However, it shows that McCain's momentum is blunted. the VA poll alone is not indicative of an Obama move, but it could be if backed up by tracker moves by Gallup/Ras/Hotline and the stand alones which I'm certain are coming soon --- RCP just knocked off all standalones, and the +10 coming off for McCain took him down to Plus 1.6
Oh, now I see. This has nothing to do with looking at field offices. You're trying to justify a trip to Vegas, baby!
Don't lose all your money, k?
Rasmussen holding polling updates for Fox and not providing them to their subscribers...hmm, more smoke around bias? or not?
I read yesterday then the Obama camp plans to send their entire California volunteer force into Nevada for the election. McCain send his Arizona forces into New Mexico and Nevada?
With Wisconsin and Minnesota appearing closer than before, will this complicate Obama's moving his Illinois people to Ohio/Michigan for Nov. 4.
I'd love to be in the "War room" for both camps and find out the details of going about winning an election, street by street, county by county, state by state.
Heh, Mule Rider's showing some flop sweat today.
Can someone on this board tell me why Palin is so popular?
No ignorant repsonses please (i.e., you idiot! you moron!)
Just some solid feedback.
Thanks.
How many readers are aware that Chriss Dodd (D) is the Chairman charged with overseeing the Banking,Housing and Urban affairs committe?
How is it that the chair is receiving donations from the very same entity he is supposed to be regulating?
inst this a classic case of the fox watching the henhouse?
Agreed, there has to be some level of truth in a pollster, and Zogby Interactive has none. REMOVE THE INTERACTIVE POLLS!
So Nevada has 5 electoral votes, and if it is indeed as close as it has been previously with Obama having a very possible opportunity, I'd say this just helps the Kerry States + IA/CO route with NV interchangeable with NM.
If anything, McCain is simply playing defense in Nevada.
Fred,
Last week when Rasmussen released the combined fox polls he atleast released partial crosstbas, very basic, but something.
>Mule Rider said...
09/15 11:01 CDT The United States >deal sees Obama cede some power
Humourous because Mugabe is African, and Obama is half-African.
How we laughed.
Elsewhere, I see that oil has dropped below 100 US dollars a barrel on the back of projections of an economic downturn reducing demand, and the ongoing meltdown of the financial sector leading to a firesale of commodities. Is that good or bad? I can't tell any longer
Palin plays well to people like my mom (70 years old, conservative, scared of the world, religious). The whole idea of a black man running the place scares her so that she thinks if we just get a pres who prays alot we will all be fine.
That is why she likes Palin.
Now you explain to me how she can have come to hate Bush, but still like Palin. She even flirted with Obama before Palin came along.
She gets every repug lying email too.
Lani,
Beyond the religious base, I have no idea what the attraction is. I do however think that it is wearing off.
Hilarioius.
MSNBC just cut off Tucker Bounds right after killing him about the "lying narrative"
Obama Network TV...hehe
I've gotta say, I've been lurking here for awhile simply because this was one of the few places that people from all sides of the political spectrum could analyze the election and the polls from a sober, objective, empirically-based perspective.
Looks like this place is becoming a victim of its own popularity - between the retarded hypertrolls (they seem to be exclusively GOP so far), the angry partisans (pretty even), the copy-pasta chefs with their 8 inch wall of text content-free posts and the folks who jump on every piece of news that even vaguely favor their side as "TEH KILL-SHOT!!1! ELECTION OVAR!!" it's getting hard to hear the actual meaningful stuff through the "static and ground noise"
For what it's worth (not much), I'll add my vote to the people saying there needs to be some increased moderation to wipe out the blatant trolls, and some general community emphasis on toning down the partisan rhetoric. Maybe make a "poll/numbers only" thread and a "throw poo at the dirty communists/fascists on the other side of the fence" thread for each post.
Anyway, back to lurking - tremendous thanks to those of you who make this such an informative place for election information.
Lani,
A large majority of the public can relate to her situation in life right now. She doesnt seem as tainted by power as most politicians, and she's good at delivering zingers and smiling.
:)
@fred:
We need the RAS state polls.
Anyone know if he is doing his "extra" party ID adjustment on these? If he is drop the number for McCain by 1 or 2 to compare to prior polling.
Yes, he does his party ID adjustment on all of his polls. So expect these polls to be very bad for Obama. (And I would drop McCain's numbers by more than 2 to do a comparison.)
Fred - Ras always releases cross tabs to subscribers, its just a question of when. You want em let me know.
On Zogby, about two months ago i made the same point as then zogby was showing obama up in many southern states and arizona i think.
i was shouted down by the lefties....and told that the low weighting covers any concerns.
Does that same logic not apply now, or only when Zobgy favored Obama?
dwbh-
Thanks. I have not looked at the party ID effect in state polls, but I sure will today. Does he use the national party ID number to correct state polls or correct for each state separately?
Damn I love this series. I've been writing for years about what it is really like to try to do field campaigns -- how little most political consultants care for these iffy, volunteer mobilizing operations. See here, for a long example.
It's great that you are able to go on the road and spell this stuff out.
This made my day: campaign organizers despise yard signs and other chum for the massive headachey hassle they represent ...
I really like these posts Sean, it adds meat to the raw bones of the numbers.
AAaaaaand off-topic: I don´t get why it´s bad that Obama received contributions from Lehman Brothers employees (that´s the important fact - most of these donations are coming from "simple" employees, people like you and me, well...only a little richer.
And since Lehman Brothers went bankrupt in spite of all these supposedly dirty contributions, Obama certainly was a BAAAAD bribed politician.
Nobody really takes Zogby seriously.
Marc, as a centrist i get on here to see what everyone is thinking a little ahead of the news. I'm sorry you disapprove so strongly, but i stand on my posts as appropriate.
Rasmussen may be a republican evangelical, and many of his opinion surveys are right leaning, but if he started cooking the books, wouldn't that hurt business, and business comes before partisanship.
Its like Fox News. Once it became apparent that they were shills for the right, everything got questioned. Even the credibility of the news department.
MSNBC is starting to suffer the same fate. With the rise in popularity of Olbermann as a left wing activist, even the responsible news organization of NBC gets tarred. Shows the danger of mixing politics with business.
Dow just crossed 11K.
This could be slipping into a real crisis if 10900 doesn't hold. There is an enormous amount of pressure to hold the line above that number on the futures market - my guess is that world non us money is working in our market right now - who's it is is anybody's guess. Strange times.
DOW down 450, good for Obama?
Hahaha! Virginia is back in play! As long as Obama gets it, he won't even need NM or NV!
In an example of the media falling for "last poll" bias, watch the media take a hold of the following story:
Senator Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico. Because of what's going on in Macomb and Oakland counties in Michigan, Senator McCain is trending toward the lead there. A win for McCain would brings Obama back down to 247. However, Obama is trending toward the lead in Colorado and, with SurveyUSA's poll today, in Virginia. 247+9 for CO+13 for VA gives Obama... a tie.
That is, of course, if Senator McCain can hold in in Omaha.
Betcha one electoral vote that this narrative is played in the media ad nauseum for the next few weeks.
FYI latest on Ras premium...
Preparedness: Not Yet Released to Public…63% Say McCain Prepared for top job, 44% Say Same About Obama. See Crosstabs.
Ethics: Not Yet Released to Public… 39% Say Palin More Ethical Than Most Politicians, 37% Say Same About McCain, 34% Obama, 22% Biden… See Crosstabs
McCain-Obama: McCain trusted more on War in Iraq, Immigration, Negotiating Trade Agreements. Obama trusted more on Environment. Toss-Up on Balancing the Budget… See Crosstabs, See Trends Obama has edge on health care, education… See Crosstabs, See Trends
Back to NV
that is what this thread is about, right?
Does anyone think that NV instead of NM is a realistic scenario for Obama? there are local differences, but will they be big enough to make NV go Obama and NM go McCain?
SurveyUSA Virginia poll is obviously an outlier when compared to the last 6 polls. Most interesting is the Siena poll in New York showing McCain within 5 pts. This is a collapse of support that was nearing 20pts. Combine this with closing polls in Minnesota, New Mexico, and widening leads in Ohio and Florida it is clear McCain has a lead that is beyond a convention bounce.
Mike, right on analysis.
Geraldo in Nebraska here we come in mid October. Sigh.
Geoff:
I wasn't criticizing the site generally - I really like the site, and the comment threads, and you're one of those contributors who keeps me informed way ahead of the normal media curve. Keep up the good work, sincerely.
I just see, especially today, more and more people doing the same partisan yelling and talking point spamming you see at every other discussion area. It was the lack of this empty bickering that made me like this place so much, and I feel like it's starting to take over. Just my 2 cents, but no knock on you or the other normal, poll- and data-based posters here. Shutting up now...
Um, westcoast conservative... Don't you know how Washington works? Didn't they teach you the "iron triangle" in poli sci 101?
I apologize if my poor typing skills in my 2:55 PM can be implied as racist. A win for McCain would BRING Obama back down to 247.
Bess, you is my woman now, indeed. Shame on me.
Real Mike,
Iron triangle?
I must have missed that week.
can you give us the short version?
Marc, no worries boss.
I like the site for the same reasons. You should comment more.
It really is the most exciting election of my life, im 33.
SurveyUSA has McCain up 49-45 in Ohio (9/12-14/08).
Clearly, McCain has a small but significant lead in Ohio.
For what its worth, here's my first post on my blog for centrists.
I'm trying to get it together now.
http://centristnet.com/2008/09/11/911-forum-kicks-off-post-convention-period/
matt w - I think it's more likely that NM will go for Obama while NV goes for McCain than the reverse scenario. (See state-by-state tracker for reference.)
However, I think it's more likely that Obama would win both states before McCain wins both, if only based on voter registration and demographics.
These polls are like shifting sands.
Is it it the electorate or maybe .... maybe Nate was right and the bounce is a like a dead bird fallin' from a tree somewhere in MN?
GIULIANI and PALIN mocking Obama as a community organizer. That tone is not what America wants anymore. It will resonate as the death cry of the last generation of the Neo-Cons. Desperate times to mock Service to Ones country.
Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...
YES!
Even the liberal Chuck Todd admits to the MCCAIN SURGE!
Hey troll, I was wondering what your opinion is on what the U.S. markets will do tomorrow.
That way, I can do the opposite and make some money!!!
Oct - I agree. There are about 289357923 things you could attack Obama on that are more current and substantive. Why, oh why, go after him for work he did at age 25 or so that was dedicated toward improving citizens' rights and knowledge of issues that affected them in their community?
That, and it was just in very poor taste.
Plus - isn't the whole get-out-the-vote effort kind of like community organizing? Hmmmm....
Come on, WC Con, don't tease like that! I'll assume you're serious, though.
Congress is at one point of the triangle, regulators at another point, and the industry interest group is at the third point of the triangle. Every one works hand in hand to make sure everyone maintains power. Interest groups raise campaign cash for Congress. Congress passes the laws to legalize power through the bureaucracy. The bureaucracy regulates laws favorable to the industry. Then the cycle starts again.
It's as American as apple pie.
I like Sarah because a mother of 5 who runs an efficient house actually knows how to keep thier finances in order , unlike the rocket science geniuses in government
Anybody know what polls were saying about Ohio just prior to the election in 2004? Can a motivated African American vote make much a difference this time? Serious answers only please.
No, dear Concern Troll J.H., for Razzy, partisanship *is* business. He drives a Gooper-friendly media narrative and gets paid handsomely for it.
Additionally, because Razzy got rich off of selling ESPN, which he helped found, to ABC, he doesn't need to work another day in his life.
Hmmmmmm . . . a rich evangelical founds a "polling" organization . . . I wonder why? A real headscratcher.
Marc said...
Looks like this place is becoming a victim of its own popularity - between the retarded hypertrolls (they seem to be exclusively GOP so far),
There are some serious Democratic hypertrolls. Some of them just post link after link to some blog or another as proof of, well, something, and then there was the won spoofing VaCon et al.
It would be nice if we could set up an ignore list, and if they did a better job catching spoofers, but I can deal with this level of noise. Most of the time.
Sean,
I'd love to see pictures of the offices that you're visiting. How do the Obama digs compare to the McCain digs? How good are the locations? What are the demographics of the people that you run across there? Do you have a flickr photostream that you might post pictures like that in?
For Ohio 2004:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/states/ohio.html
Wolf Blitzer on CNN has moved MN from LEANS OBAMA to TOSS UP!
Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...
Wolf Blitzer on CNN has moved MN from LEANS OBAMA to TOSS UP!
Look who popped out of their hole! The smartestest troll in all the land!!!
VinceP1974 said...
I like Sarah because a mother of 5 who runs an efficient house actually knows how to keep thier finances in order , unlike the rocket science geniuses in government
That's a nice sentiment. However, what info do you have that shows she does run an efficient house or has ever managed her finances well?
I know some nice people in various financial jobs who are very organized and handle their money well. Some of them are moms. They would laugh their ass off that those skills qualify them to be president.
I think you might be over-reading the benefits of field operations in NV.
First, Obama's field operation had more efficiency/GOTV difficulties in the caucus than convcentional wisdom held heading in. I'd like to think these problems are cleared up, but I'm skeptical.
Second, the registration gap is impressive, but there's a recent history in NV of GOP outperforming its registration numbers. (If I remember right, one CD there was gerrymandered to be exactly even Dem/GOP registration as part of a resdistricting deal after the last round, but has leaned heavily GOP at the ballot box)
I'm still convinced CO and NM will flip before NV.
Real Mike..
Thanks.. I actually am aware of the influence peddling thing but hadn't heard the term Iron triangle applied to it until now.. Im new to this site.
Thanks for the clarification
Let's keep it real. Projected this race all of the sudden got a lot more difficult. Palin was a game-changer. In an even popular vote Virginia looks likely to go to Obama now, but it also looks like at least one of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania will likely flip. Colorado is probably lean Obama. Nevada and New Mexico are anyone's guess. Ohio's lean McCain, florida too. Add that all up and you have a giant clusterf***. Your guess is as good as mine.
Wtf is that stupid picture? Did Sean take that one?
assmole - Google Reno 911.
ty marie. I had a 'feeling' it was sumthin stoopid like a tv show.
It seems to me that some believe that votes depend upon.....polls. It's the other way round. So whatever happens to economy, jobs, world doesn't really matter...t's all up to the polls. Yesterday Nate ran an article about Wall Street and Lehman...and the message was: see I told you, it's not the economy...IT'S THE POLLS STUPID ! Well, I bet you, that even this time, one of the zillion pollsters will get it right, the more pollsters around the higher the chances someone will be right. Just like kids at the "Guess How Many Jelly Beans In the Jar ?" country-fair prize.
Rasmussen once got it wrong, then adopted the STUPID party ID model in 2004 because some jelly beaner competitor got it right with this un-scientific model. I repeat, adjusting polls with other polls is statistical heresy - errors will multiply and not just sum up.
But still, if you're lucky, you can get it right ! That's because basically we have only two parties and shifts will ad to one and deduct from the other. Rasmussen has tried to transfer this model worldwide, whenever they ran polls in places with 3,4,5,6,7,x parties they missed the mark completely.
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,潤滑液,自慰套,威而柔,威而柔,威而柔,威而柔,自慰套,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套,潤滑液,威而柔,FleshLight,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,跳蛋,按摩棒,FleshLight,充氣娃娃,情趣商品,情趣網站,情趣網站,潤滑液,性感內衣,充氣娃娃,按摩棒,情趣精品,跳蛋,情趣網站,情趣商品,跳蛋,FleshLight,充氣娃娃,情趣內衣,情趣精品,按摩棒,威而柔,自慰套,成人玩具,Nexus,lelo,聰明球,後庭,後庭g點,g點,美國fleshlight,STU訓練大師,Fleshgirls,Toys Heart,Tenga,日本 Vibratex,日本Toys Heart ,日本Tenga,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,整型,水噹噹,貸款,貸款,信用貸款,宜蘭民宿,花蓮民宿,未婚聯誼,網路購物,珠海,下川島,常平,珠海,澳門機票,香港機票,婚友,婚友社,未婚聯誼,交友,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友社,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,婚友,未婚聯誼,婚友社,未婚聯誼,單身聯誼,單身聯誼,婚友,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友,交友,交友,婚友社,婚友社,婚友社,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,越南新娘,外籍新娘,外籍新娘,台中坐月子中心,搬家公司,搬家,搬家,搬家公司,線上客服,網頁設計,線上客服,網頁設計,網頁設計,土地貸款,免費資源,電腦教學,wordpress,人工植牙,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
^^ very nice
徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要打工兼差、打工,兼差,八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,便服店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當日領上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有鋼琴酒吧又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚,無業績壓力,無脫秀無喝酒壓力,高層次會員制客源,工作輕鬆,可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已,對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有!艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪,不需擔心!只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表
水水們妳有缺現領、想要兼職、有缺錢的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的賺錢,酒店和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務 幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment